伊朗冲突与经济影响
Tracy Mumford: 来自《纽约时报》,这是今日头条。我是特蕾西·蒙福德。今天是3月11日,星期三。以下是我们今天报道的内容。 《纽约时报》获悉了关于特朗普政府如何误判伊朗的反应及其对全球经济的冲击的新细节,包括战争的规模和它将如何动摇全球经济。在袭击开始之前,能源部长克里斯·赖特公开表示,他不担心战争会扰乱石油销售,并以去年6月与伊朗发生的为期12天的冲突为例,当时几乎没有中断。特朗普的其他一些顾问私下也持有类似观点,驳斥了关于伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡——那里承担着全球约**20%**的石油供应——的警告。但现在,这正是发生的事情。海湾地区的商业航运已陷入停滞。石油价格飙升,政府一直在努力寻找方法来平息这场危机。昨天,当赖特在社交媒体上发布海军成功护送一艘油轮通过麻烦海峡的消息时,股市反应积极。石油市场一度得到安抚。随后,在政府官员表示没有发生护送事件后,他删除了该帖子,市场再次陷入动荡。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: From the New York Times, it's the headlines. I'm Tracy Mumford. Today's Wednesday, March 11th. Here's what we're covering. The Times has learned new details about how the Trump administration miscalculated how Iran would react to the war, both in the scale of its response and how it would shake the global economy. Before the attacks began, the energy secretary, Chris Wright, said publicly he was not concerned a war would disrupt oil sales, pointing to the 12-day conflict with Iran last June when there was little disruption. Some of Trump's other advisers shared similar views in private, dismissing warnings that Iran could choke off the Strait of Hormuz that carries roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. But that is exactly what's happened now. Commercial shipping's come to a standstill in the Gulf. Oil prices have spiked and the administration's been scrambling to find ways to tamp down the crisis. Yesterday, the stock market loved it when Wright posted on social media that the Navy had successfully escorted a tanker through the troubled straight. Oil markets were reassured. He then deleted the post after administration officials said no escorts had taken place and markets once again went into turmoil.
Tracy Mumford: 我问他(总统),“你打算如何降低油价?我知道你非常关心油气。” 他说:“特朗普总统本人对目前的状况感到非常沮丧。” 本周早些时候,他曾告诉福克斯新闻,油轮船员应该直接驶过。 “他们应该直接穿过霍尔木兹海峡,表现出勇气。没什么好怕的。他们没有海军。我们击沉了他们所有的船。” 在与十多名要求匿名的美国官员的访谈中,《纽约时报》了解到,一些军事顾问确实警告说,伊朗可能会发起一次攻击性行动,以回应美伊袭击。但其他顾问则认为,消灭伊朗的最高领导人,比如在第一波袭击中被杀的阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊,将导致更务实的领导人上台,他们不会继续冲突。伊朗政权开始针对邻国是一个巨大的错误。无差别攻击。鲁莽的挥霍。我不能说我们预料到了他们会如何反应,但我们知道这是有可能的。 昨天,国防部长皮特·赫格斯承认,五角大楼并未预料到伊朗会在中东其他国家发动如此多的袭击,但他坚称这将适得其反。他还表示,伊朗的袭击现在正在放缓。 “在过去24小时里,伊朗发射的导弹数量是他们迄今为止能够发射的最低数量。” 相比之下,赫格斯说,美国正在发动比以往更多的袭击。 与此同时,每晚在德黑兰的深夜,我的WhatsApp就开始收到朋友、有互联网的家人的短信,有时甚至是来自消息人士的短信,说空袭非常猛烈。每晚似乎都是他们经历过的最激烈的时刻。炸弹听起来更近了。爆炸声更响了。我从短信和电话中感受到的恐慌是,战争真的越来越近了。 我的同事法尔纳兹·法西,她报道伊朗已有二十多年,她说那里许多人都感到无助和被困。人们说,让他们感到恐惧的是,战争似乎不仅针对伊斯兰共和国的军事和政府基础设施,现在还扩展到炼油厂、天然气仓库、文化遗址。一些人曾希望战争能带来政权终结,但这似乎并未在地面上发生。我听说,至少在德黑兰,地面上有非常多的安全力量。到处都是检查站,他们在搜查汽车并索要身份证件。所以人们还没有看到任何迹象表明这个政权正在崩溃或类似的事情。而这是一个可怕的前景。他们被夹在一个为求生存不择手段的政权和一场将大规模炸弹投向他们城市的空袭之间。他们不知道这场战争将如何结束。他们不知道何时会结束。他们不知道一旦结束,他们的国家是否会化为废墟?
Original English
Tracy Mumford: So, Brian, you did a a phone interview with the president of the United. What is his read on this? So I asked him, "How do you get that how do you get the prices down? I know how much you care about oil and gas." And he says, "President Trump himself has been frustrated by the situation." At one point earlier this week, he told Fox News that oil tanker crews should just go straight through. "Here's exactly what he said. These ships should go through the Strait of Hermuz and show some guts. There's nothing to be afraid of. They have no navy. We sunk all their ships." In interviews with a dozen US officials who asked for anonymity to discuss private conversations, the Times learned some military advisers did warn that Iran could launch an aggressive campaign in response to the US-Israeli attack. But other advisers were confident that taking out Iran's senior leadership, like Ayatollah Ali Ham, who was killed in the first wave of strikes, would lead to more pragmatic leaders who wouldn't keep a conflict going. big mistake by the Iranian regime to start targeting its neighbors. Indiscriminate targeting. Uh flailing recklessly. I can't say that we anticipated necessarily that's exactly how they would would react, but we knew it was a possibility. Yesterday, Secretary of Defense Pete Hgsth acknowledged that the Pentagon had not expected Iran to carry out as many strikes as it has on other countries throughout the Middle East, but he insisted it would backfire on them. And he said Iran's attacks are now slowing. "The last 24 hours have seen Iran fire the lowest number of missiles they've been capable of firing yet." In contrast, Heges said the US was launching more strikes than ever. Meanwhile, every night in the middle of the night in Thran, my WhatsApp starts buzzing with text messages from friends, from family who have access to internet, sometimes even from sources saying that the air strikes are really intense. Every night seems to be the most intense experience that they've had. The bombs seem to sound closer. The explosions are louder. And the sense of panic that I'm getting from the messages and phone calls is that the war is really just closing in. My colleague Farnaz Faci, who has covered Iran for more than two decades, says many people there feel helpless and trapped. People are saying that what terrifies them is that the war seems to not only be targeting the Islamic Republic's military and government infrastructure, but now it's expanding to oil refineries, gas depots, cultural sites. Some people were hopeful that maybe the war would bring an end to this regime, but that doesn't seem to be happening on the ground. I hear that in Thran at least there's very heavy presence of security on the ground. There checkpoints all over the place where they're searching cars and asking for ID cards. So people are not yet seeing any signs that this regime is collapsing or anything like that. And and that's a scary prospect. They're caught between a regime that stops at nothing for its own survival and a campaign of air strikes that's landing massive bombs on their cities. And they don't know how this is going to end. They don't know when this is going to end. They don't know once this ends. Is their country going to be in ruins?
官员安全担忧
Tracy Mumford: 在华盛顿特区,根据熟悉情况的消息人士透露,司法部长帕姆·邦迪已悄然从市内的公寓搬入军事住所,原因是安全担忧。一位高级官员表示,自1月份美国逮捕了已被邦迪领导的司法部起诉的委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗以来,威胁不断增加。邦迪还因处理爱泼斯坦调查的方式面临激烈的公众批评。邦迪的发言人对此事未予置评。她是又一位因外国敌对势力、罪犯和抗议者构成的危险而搬入戒备森严的军事设施住所的特朗普政府官员。总统特朗普的一位高级顾问史蒂文·米勒已搬入军事基地。州务卿马可·卢比奥和即将离任的国土安全部长克里斯蒂·格诺姆也搬了进去。虽然过去几届政府的成员也这样做过,但历史学家和前官员表示,特朗普政府是第一届为如此多的与军队没有直接联系的政治任命官员提供此类安排的政府。目前尚不清楚官员们为居住在纳税人资助的住所支付了多少费用,或者是否支付了费用。格诺姆的一位发言人表示,她去年为该住所支付了“公平的市场租金”。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: In Washington DC, Attorney General Pam Bondi has quietly moved from an apartment in the city to military housing because of safety concerns, according to sources familiar with the situation. One senior official said there have been growing threats since January when the US captured Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro, who has been indicted by the Justice Department that Bondi leads. Bondi's also faced intense public criticism over how she's handled the Epstein investigation. A spokesman for Bondi did not comment on the matter. She is the latest Trump administration official to move into heavily guarded quarters at military facilities after citing danger from foreign adversaries, criminals, and protesters. One of President Trump's top advisers, Steven Miller, moved to a military base. So did Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the outgoing Secretary of Homeland Security Christy Gnome. While members of past administrations have done that, too, historians and former officials say the Trump administration is the first to provide this for so many political appointees with no direct connection to the military. It's unclear how much, if anything, officials are paying to live in the taxpayer funded accommodations. A spokesperson for Gnome said she was paying quote fair market rent for the housing last year.
信用评分与保险
Tracy Mumford: 在全国范围内,房主在购买房屋并获得抵押贷款时,几乎总是需要购买保险。他们为此支付的费用会因地点、洪水、火灾等风险而有很大差异。但新的研究表明,人们的信用评分也在很大程度上推高了保险费率。两项最新研究发现,信用记录较差的美国房主——通常是由于错过付款或债务过多——现在支付的房屋保险费用要高得多。例如,明尼苏达州北部有两位朋友在同一个社区购买了几乎完全相同的房屋。信用评分较高的朋友每年支付约1200美元的保险费。信用评分较低的朋友则支付约2900美元。总体而言,在美国,信用评分被评为“一般”的人通常支付的费用是信用评分“优秀”的人的两倍。在某些地方,这种差距可能更大,信用评分较差的人购买某些保单的费用可能高达12倍。据一个倡导团体称,保险公司认为考虑信用记录是值得的,因为低分者倾向于提出更多索赔,这很可能是因为他们的收入较低,因此当房屋受损时,他们无法自掏腰包支付。但是,包括加利福尼亚州和马萨诸塞州在内的一些州,出于对公平性和可能歧视低收入美国人和有色人种的担忧,已经限制或禁止保险公司使用信用数据。一位消费者倡导团体的保险专家告诉《纽约时报》:“当政府和金融系统强制我们购买某项产品时,就有特殊的义务确保定价公平。”
Original English
Tracy Mumford: Across the country, homeowners are almost always required to get insurance when they buy a house and get a mortgage. How much they pay for that can vary wildly based on location, risks like flooding, fire, etc. But new research shows just how much people's credit scores are also driving insurance rates way, way up. Two recent studies found that American homeowners with weaker credit histories, usually from things like missed payments or having a lot of debt, now pay significantly more for home insurance. For example, two friends in northern Minnesota bought nearly identical houses in the same neighborhood. The friend with the higher credit score pays about $1,200 a year for her insurance premium. The friend with the lower credit score pays about $2,900. Overall, across the US, people with what are deemed fair credit scores are often paying double what people with excellent scores are paying. In some places, the disparity can be even higher, with people who have poor credit paying up to 12 times more for certain policies. According to an advocacy group, insurers have argued that it's worth considering credit history because people with low scores tend to file more claims, likely because they have less income, so when their homes get damaged, they can't pay out of pocket. But a handful of states, including California and Massachusetts, have limited or banned insurers from using credit data out of concerns about fairness and the potential for discrimination against low-income Americans and people of color. An insurance expert at a consumer advocacy group told the Times, quote, "When the government and the financial system mandate that we buy a product, there's a special obligation to make sure the pricing is fair."
学校屏幕时间
Tracy Mumford: 最后,许多父母正试图减少孩子们的屏幕时间。越来越多的证据表明,屏幕时间可能导致焦虑和抑郁,可能延迟社交和情感技能的发展,并降低注意力。但家庭却遇到了一个意想不到的挑战:孩子们的学校。今天早上我送儿子上学时,我注意到教室前面的大屏幕已经吸引了孩子们的集体注意力。家长们一直在全国各地的学校董事会会议上露面,并游说校长们减少教室里的屏幕使用,因为在许多情况下,设备已经成为日常必需品。 “令人上瘾的娱乐应用不属于学校的一天。YouTube、电子游戏和其他非教育性的。许多孩子获得了用于教育目的的设备,但孩子们就是孩子。” 一位家长告诉《纽约时报》,她在学校时会用一个应用程序监控她一年级女儿的iPad活动,并注意到她在白天看泰勒·斯威夫特的音乐视频。美国儿科学会曾表示,当学生使用屏幕时,他们应该参与批判性思维活动,而不是观看娱乐内容。这个问题在短期内不会消失。在《纽约时报》最近对小学教师进行的一项调查中,81%的教师表示,在他们的学校,学生在幼儿园就开始在课堂上使用设备。一位家长说,直到她试图拍摄一段女儿跳舞的视频发给祖父母时,她才意识到女儿在课堂上看了多少内容。最后,那个幼儿园的孩子看着镜头说:“如果你喜欢你看到的,请点击下方订阅。” 以上是今日头条。今天在《每日》节目中,我们将更深入地探讨中东战争如何威胁要颠覆全球能源供应。你可以在《纽约时报》应用程序或你收听播客的任何地方收听。我是特蕾西·蒙福德。我们明天再见。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: And finally, a lot of parents are trying to cut back on how much screen time their kids get. There's mounting evidence that screen time can contribute to anxiety and depression, can delay social and emotional skills, and decrease attention spans. But families are running into an unexpected challenge. Their kids schools. When I dropped off my son this morning, I noticed that the huge screen at the front of the classroom was already captivating the collective attention of the children. Parents have been showing up at schoolboard meetings across the country and lobbying principles for cutting back on screens in the classroom where devices have become the everyday norm in many cases. "Addictive entertainment apps do not belong in the school day. YouTube, video games, and other non-educational. Lots of kids have been given devices for educational purposes, but kids are kids." One parent told the Times she monitors her first grader's iPad activity while she's at school using an app and noticed she was watching Taylor Swift music videos in the middle of the day. The American Academy of Pediatrics has said that when students are using a screen, they should be engaged in critical thinking activities, not watching entertainment. The issue isn't going away anytime soon. 81% of elementary school teachers who were surveyed by the Times recently said that at their schools, students received devices in class by kindergarten. One parent said she didn't realize just how much content her daughter was watching in class until she tried to film a video of her dancing to send to her grandparents. And at the end, the kindergarter looked into the camera and said, "If you like what you saw, click below to subscribe." Those are the headlines. Today on the Daily, more on how the war in the Middle East is threatening to upend the global energy supply. You can listen to that in the New York Times app or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Tracy Mumford. We'll be back tomorrow.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
公司/组织: Trump administration, New York Times