市场收盘回顾:多重利空打击下的普跌行情
好的,各位朋友,欢迎回到新一期的市场收盘节目。今天是11月6日,星期四。股市今天相当惨淡。
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All right. Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market close. It is Thursday, November 6th. It is quite an ugly day in the stock market.
坦率地说,大约在两个半小时前,我们在盘中出现了一点点,真的只是一点点反弹。但随着我们进入收盘阶段,很多反弹的成果都消失了。少数几只股票保持了上涨势头,但大多数股票都未能守住。即便 Robin Hood 公布了我们见过的最好的财报之一,其股价当天仍下跌了近11%。
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And quite frankly, we had a little bit, just a little bit uh of recovery kind of intraday, call it about two and a half hours ago. And as we get into the close that we're seeing right here, a lot of that recovery is going uh going away. A couple of stocks are holding on to the momentum. Most stocks are not able to hold on to the m momentum after one of the best earnings we've ever seen from Robin Hood. That stock is down almost 11% on the day.
今天真是糟糕的一天。Robin Hood 的股票(HOOD)表现糟糕,Palantir 下跌7%,特斯拉下跌3.7%,英伟达下跌3.5%。标普500指数实际上并未触及日内低点。个别股票受到的冲击比标普500指数要严重得多。指数的低点是5668,之后小幅反弹至5673,现在是5670.5。看起来今天会收跌1%,但可能没有几个小时前在绝对低点时那么糟糕。我们将在接下来的12分钟收盘时见分晓。
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Ugly day. Ugly day for hoodie. Pounder down 7%. Tesla down 3.7. Nvidia down 3.5. S&P uh actually not at the lows. Again, you have individual stocks that are getting hit harder than the S&P 500 right here. The lows was 668. Got a little recovery up to 673. Now we're at 670.5. Looks like we will get a down 1% day, but uh might not be as bad as where it was a couple of hours ago at the absolute lows. And we're going to see in the next 12 minutes as we close out the day.
AMD 下跌7%至238美元。SoFi 跌破28.50美元,现报27.44美元。Grab 不知何故勉强维持绿色。谷歌也基本保持绿色,今天有一些关于谷歌为其 TPU (Tensor Processing Unit: 谷歌为机器学习定制的专用集成电路) 推出新芯片的好消息。但其他股票,Reddit 下跌6%,亚马逊下跌2%,Meta 下跌2%,Salesforce 下跌5%,PayPal 下跌2%,E.L.F. 下跌35%。我认为 Duolingo 也没有真正恢复过来,今天下跌了26%。VIX (Volatility Index: 衡量市场波动性的恐慌指数) 显然上涨了9%,波动性确实在加剧。小盘股下跌1.6%,但其他所有板块几乎都是红色的。
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AMD down 7% 238. SoFi 2744 lost 2850. Grab is somehow kind of holding green. Google is also kind of holding green. You got some good headlines on Google today in the context of new chips for their TPUs. But everything else, Reddit down 6%, Amazon down 2%, Meta down 2%, Salesforce down five, PayPal down two, ELF down 35. I don't think Dolingo has really recovered. Dolingo right here down 26% on the day. You got the VIX obviously that's up 9%. Volatility is indeed elevated. Small caps are down 1.6, six, but everything else is pretty much red.
所以,我想每个人脑海中的问题都是,为什么市场会如此惨淡?苹果在收盘时也表现得比较坚挺。顺便说一下,我们今天有很多财报要讨论。我们有 SoundHound、Airbnb、SMR、DraftKings、Opendoor、Affirm、Square、MP、Monster、Peloton、Texas Roadhouse、Take-Two 以及一大堆其他公司。除此之外,特斯拉的股东大会也应该很快就要开始了。还有一系列我们正在关注的宏观新闻。我们会关注 IREN 的电话会议,或者说收听它,同时我也会实时追踪所有其他公司的财报。
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So, I think the question on everyone's brain is why why are we getting so red? Apple as well holding a bit strong uh as we get into the close. By the way, we have a lot of earnings today that we're going to talk about. We have Soundown, Airbnb, SMR, DraftKings, Open Door Firm, Square, MP, Monster, Pelaton, Texas Roadhouse, Take 2, and a ton of other companies. On top of that, you have the Texas shareholder meeting that should be starting very soon. Um, and then you have a bunch of different macro headlines that we're looking at. We will be watching the IN call or listening to it, but I'll be tracking all the other earnings in real time.
导致市场下跌的四大核心因素
那么,我们市场如此惨淡的真正原因是什么?我们绝对不是绿色的。嗯,我认为有几个因素。首先,我关注的有四个核心因素。
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So, what is the real reason for why we're so green or so red? We are definitely not green. Um, well, I think there's a couple things. Number one, well, there there's four kind of core things I'm looking at.
很多人说这只是技术性的缺口回补,这种说法有其道理,可能就这么简单。如果你想要更实质性的原因:
- 特朗普关税裁决风险:如果最高法院关于特朗普关税的裁决对政府不利,美国将不得不退还超过一万亿美元的收入和交易款项。这种说法开始在更广泛的市场中变得越来越明显,这可能是一个问题。
- 政府停摆影响扩大:政府停摆正准备关闭整个机场。在美国一些最重要的机场,包括肯尼迪国际机场(JFK),已经有10%的航班被取消。这绝不是什么好事。
- 英伟达CEO言论引发半导体行业担忧:黄仁勋(Jensen)说中国将在人工智能领域击败美国,这番言论引起了轩然大波。如果美国半导体公司不能向中国销售产品,而中国又将在人工智能上超越美国,这对美国半导体股来说不是个好消息。顺便说一句,昨天中国共产党强制科技公司购买中国国有芯片。这为黄仁勋的言论火上浇油,即如果英伟达不被允许销售,中国将会领先。这样的消息一出,英伟达的市值就蒸发了两三千亿美元,显然整个半导体市场也受到了冲击。
- 裁员数据创20年新高:然后是我认为导致我们遭受痛苦的更广泛的原因。这是自2003年以来最糟糕的10月份裁员数据。虽然政府关门,但我们看到了一些关于裁员的第三方数据,情况显然不容乐观。第三方公司 Challenger 发布报告称,仓储和科技行业引领了上个月的裁员潮,10月份共有17.5万个裁员岗位,是自2003年以来的最高水平,这显然不是什么好事。
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There's a lot of people saying it's just a technical gap fill, and that's fair that it could be as simple as that. If you wanted something more substantive, uh if the Supreme Court ruling on Trump tariffs goes against them, the US would have to refund over a trillion dollars worth of revenue and deals. Uh that chatter is starting to become a lot more apparent to the broader market, which could be an issue. Number two is government shutdown is getting ready to shut down entire airports. You've already had 10% of flights get shut down at some of the most important airports in the country, including JFK. That's not the best thing in the world. Jensen kind of I don't want to say he messed up, but he definitely caused the kurfuffle by saying that China is going to beat the United States in AI. Not the best headline for semiconductor stocks in the United States if they can't sell into China and China's going to be beating the United States on AI. By the way, China's CCP Communist Party yesterday forced tech company. I mean, they've been doing this for a while, but they you just had a reestablishment of them forcing tech companies to be buying Chinese state-based chips. So, kind of adding fuel to the fire on what Jensen said that China is going to get ahead if Nvidia is not allowed to sell. And you know, you get Nvidia down about two-300 billion dollars when you have an announcement like that. And obviously the entire semiconductor market is getting hit as well. And then you had what I think is actually the broader reason for why we're getting some pain. The worst October for layoffs since 2003. The government is closed, but we are seeing some third party data around layoffs. Uh and it's obviously not pretty right here. Challenger, which is a third party firm, they came out and said warehousing and technology sectors led last month's surge, but there were 175,000 layoffs in the month of October, the highest since 2003, which obviously is not the best thing in the world.
所以,我们面临着十多年来最大规模的裁员。黄仁勋的言论虽然没有质疑人工智能行业本身,但确实让投资者对美国在人工智能领域的地位产生了疑问。政府停摆正在加剧整个生态系统的痛苦,那些在政府工作的人没有收入,这显然会损害企业盈利,因为他们没有收入就无法消费。然后,最高法院关于特朗普关税的裁决可能对政府不利,这也造成了一些痛苦。
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So, you got the most amount of layoffs we've seen in over a decade. You've got Jensen not questioning the AI trade, but definitely getting investors to question the United States role in the AI trade, whether or not that deserves to be questioned. You have the government shutdown accelerating more pain across the entire ecosystem of people that work inside of the government that don't have an income. And obviously, that's going to hurt earnings if they can't actually spend their income because they don't they're not getting any income in the economy. And then you have the Supreme Court ruling on the Trump tariffs that could be going against them, which also is causing some pain.
结果就是,Robin Hood 下跌11%。Bitmain(BMNR)我想是36美元,BMR 报37.46美元,下跌10%。以太坊和比特币今天也表现不佳。以太坊基本上是3300美元,报3298美元,比特币则在100,700美元。比特币今天没有跌破10万美元,但感觉随时都可能失守。
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And as a result, you got Robin Hood down 11%. BMNR, I think, is at 36. BMR 3746, that's down 10%. Ethereum and Bitcoin really haven't been cooperating today either. Ethereum 3,200 basically 3,300, 3298, and then Bitcoin right here is at 100.7. Bitcoin didn't go below 100 today, but you know, obviously it does feel like it could lose 100 at any point.
所以,这是个糟糕的日子。除了说“糟糕”之外,没什么可多说的了,而且盘后还有很多财报。我们得看看在市场不好的日子里,这些财报会怎么样。如你所见,所有有财报的公司都在下跌。Opendoor 下跌7%,SMR 下跌13%,Affirm 下跌6%,Square 下跌3%,Archer 下跌7%,Monster 下跌2%,Airbnb 下跌1%,The Trade Desk 下跌3%,然后 IREN 下跌12%。这些股票中很多也属于高动量交易的范畴。所以它们现在受到冲击是合理的。希望它们的财报能扭转局面,但如果不能,那么今天对它们来说就是个糟糕的财报日。
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So, it's an ugly day. It's one of those days where there's not much you can say other than it's ugly and we have a lot of earnings after the bell. We're going to see how these earnings turn out on a day when things are bad. As you can see, all the companies that have earnings. Openoro down 7%, SMR down 13%, Affirm down six, Square down three, Archer down seven, Monster down two, Airbnb down one, TTD down three, and then INEN down 12%. A lot of these names also in that heavy momentum trade. So, the fact that they're getting hit right now makes sense. And, you know, hopefully their earnings can turn things around, but if they don't turn things around, then it's just a kind of crappy day for them to be able to uh report earnings.
OpenAI 动态:Sam Altman 澄清政府资助并上调营收预期
除此之外,你还有 Sam Altman。Sam Altman 今天发了一篇类似 Bill Ackman 风格的帖子。他谈了很多事情,因为 OpenAI 的首席财务官之前表示,他们正在寻求政府为一些联邦贷款提供支持。随后 Sam Altman 不得不出来澄清说,这并非他们的本意。
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On top of that, you had Sam Alman. So Sam Alman had a Bill Aman post today and he said a lot of stuff obviously because the OpenAI CFO came out and said that they are looking for the government to kind of backs stop some of these federal loans. He then had to come out and clarify that that's not what they're actually saying.
这是一篇非常非常长的帖子。老实说我没有读完,但他确实在开头段落中说:“我们相信政府不应该挑选赢家或输家,纳税人也不应该为那些做出错误决策或在市场中失败的公司买单。我们认为可能有意义的是,政府建立自己的人工智能基础设施,但其收益也应该归政府所有。我们可以想象一个世界,政府决定承购大量的计算能力,并决定如何使用它,为此提供更低成本的资本可能是合理的。建立一个战略性的国家计算能力储备非常有意义,但这应该是为了政府的利益,而不是为了私营公司的利益。”
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So it's a very very long post. I'm honest honestly I didn't read the whole thing but the the part that he did say and the beginning paragraph was we believe that government should not pick winners or losers and that taxpayers should not bail out companies that make bad decisions or otherwise lose in the market. What we do think might make sense is governments building their own AI infrastructure, but then the upside of that should flow to the government as well. We can imagine a world where governments decide to offake a lot of computing power and get to decide how to use it and it may make sense to provide lower cost of capital to do so. Building a strategic national reserve of computing power makes a lot of sense, but this should be for the government's benefit, not for the benefit of private companies.
我认为这完全是胡说八道。如果你仔细解读,他显然是在暗示政府应该投资或资助计算能力。OpenAI 需要什么?大量的计算能力。所以,是的,他们没有直接说“政府给我们贷款”,但他们绝对在暗示政府应该确保计算能力成为一个所谓的“国家安全目标”。而这样做的结果是,像 OpenAI 这样的公司将成为主要受益者。
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I think that's absolute BS. He is obviously, if you read between the lines, making the point that the government should invest or fund or whatever word you want to use, whatever verb you want to use to make the argument into compute. What does open AAI need a lot of compute? And so, yes, they're not literally saying government give us loans, but they're definitely implying the government should make sure there is a way to uh ensure that compute is a quote unquote national security target. And as a result of that, companies like OpenAI would be the main beneficiaries.
他还说了一件我认为是他帖子中最有趣的事情:“我们预计今年年底的年化收入运行率将超过200亿美元。”华尔街的预期大约是130亿美元。所以他们超出了这些预期,并预计到2030年将增长到数千亿美元。我们正在考虑未来八年内约1.4万亿美元的投入。
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He also said and I thought this was actually the most interesting thing that he said in his post. We expect to end this year above 20 billion in annualized revenue run rate. Uh Street was expecting around 13 billion. So they are ahead of those estimates and grow to hundreds of billions by 2030. We are looking at commitments of about 1.4 trillion over the next eight years.
所以他至少在某种程度上表示:“我知道我们说过要花费近1.5万亿美元,但如果我们能获得数千亿美元的收入,那我们花的钱也就不算那么离谱了,因为我们获得了证明其合理性的投资回报率。”这实际上非常重要,显然对英伟达是利好,但尽管如此,这在短期内对人工智能行业并没有什么帮助,尽管从长远来看,如果 OpenAI 能产生数千亿美元的收入,那可能是件好事。
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So he's at least giving some level of hey I know we said we're going to spend almost a trillion and a half but if we're gaining hundreds of billions of dollars of revenue it's not like we're spending that much of an egregious amount of money because we're getting the ROI to justify it which is actually very important and obviously bullish Nvidia but nonetheless uh this is something that's not necessarily happen helping the AI trade in the short term even though long term that's probably a good thing if openi were to generate hundreds of billions of dollars of revenue
IREN 当天下跌约11%,Airbnb 在收盘时下跌约1.4%。我们还有6分钟市场就要收盘了。标普500指数也下跌了1%。
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I ran right there down about 11% on the day Airbnb down about 1.4% as we get into the close. We got 6 minutes until the market closes. S&P 500 down 1% as well.
宏观与政策动态
美国一名法官命令特朗普政府在周五前全额资助 SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program: 美国补充营养援助计划,即食品券) 福利。好的,所以有很多联邦法官不允许美国公民无法获得 SNAP 的福利。对于国际观众来说,SNAP 基本上涵盖了食品券,这是美国的一项计划,允许极低收入的人们获得政府补贴的食物。显然,政府现在停摆了。所以问题是,人们怎么吃饭?嗯,一位美国法官刚刚下令,即使政府停摆,特朗普政府也必须想办法资助它。
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US judge orders Trump administration to fully fund SNAP food and benefits by Friday. All right. So, you've got a lot of these federal judges that are not allowing United States citizens to not get the benefits from SNAP. For those that are international, SNAP essentially covers food stamps, which is a program in the United States that allows people that are very low income to be able to get food uh subsidized by the government. Obviously, the government is shut down. So, the question is, how are people going to eat? Well, a US judge has just ordered that the Trump administration has to find a way to fund it even if the government is shut down.
我想,这可以算作是希望政府停摆能够结束的一个原因,因为民主党和共和党会走到一起,意识到如果联邦法官要在各种不同情况下强迫他们为政府提供资金,他们还不如自己合作来为政府提供资金。但其次,这也意味着任何一方都没有谈判筹码,因为其中一些事情在法庭上是站不住脚的。这就引出了关于关税的问题,我们将在未来几周内获得更多细节。但显然,如果关税政策被逆转,对美国来说也不是什么好事。
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And that is just one, I guess you could call it, uh, reason for why the government shutdown hopefully comes to an end because Democrats and Republicans come together and they realize like if they're going to get if if if the federal judge is going to force them in a variety of different circumstances to fund the government, they might as well come together and fund the government. But number two, it means that there's no negotiating chip that either side has because some of these things are just not going to hold up in a court of law. And you know that brings up the question around tariffs which we're going to get some details on over the coming weeks. But obviously if that gets reversed and that's not going to be the best thing for the United States either.
Rocket Lab 今天下跌了12%。同样,很多动量股都没有避风港。我看不到任何安全的地方。没有安全港的问题在于,当市场受到如此严重的打击时,它们会以一种非常非常丑陋的方式被重创。
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Rocket Lab right here down 12% on the day. Again, a lot of momentum names. There's really no safety. I'm not seeing any safety across the board. And the problem with not having any safety is just that when things get hit that bad, they get hit and they get hit in a pretty pretty ugly way.
另一件我认为今天非常重要的事情是关于10年期国债的争论。债券收益率开始获得更多上涨动力。现在它们在当天开始有所回落,你可以看到,低于4%。收益率上涨的一个主要原因是人们担心,如果我们不降息,那么我们可能需要在私人信贷市场方面做些什么。或者,如果我们要降息,那么我们需要更高的债券收益率。所以,如果我们没有能力说政府给我们的4%已经足够好,我们就会抛售债券,因为如果无论如何都要降息,我们还不如锁定一种不同类型的收益率。
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Uh the other thing that I thought that was also really important that we saw today here is this argument on uh the 10-year bond. So bond yields started getting a little bit more momentum. And the reason bond yields started getting some more momentum now they're starting to go a little bit more down on the day as you can see right here uh below 4%. One of the number one reasons um is because people are freaking out that if we're not going to get this rate cut, then there might be something that we have to do in terms of navigating the private credit market. Or if we are going to get the rate cut, then we need a better yield on bonds. So, we're going to sell off bonds if we don't have the capacity to be able to say that the the 4% the government's giving us is good enough because if we're cutting rates anyway, then we might as well lock in a different type of yield.
正如你在这里看到的,12月降息的概率是68.9%。考虑到我们今天早上看到的裁员报告——自2003年以来最严重的裁员——这个概率低于85%对我来说真的没什么道理。但不管怎样,它现在是70%。
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As you can see right here, 68.9% on this uh December rate cut probability. really doesn't make a lot of sense to me that it's anywhere below 85% given the layoff report that we saw this morning. Worst layoff since 2003, but nonetheless, that one is at 70%.
好了,市场还有三分钟收盘。让我们在聊天区做一个投票,看看大家认为哪些股票会涨,哪些会跌。我们有很多股票。这个投票是关于今天哪只股票表现会更好?我们有 IREN,MP,Archer,还有 Opendoor。请告诉我你们持有这些股票中的哪一只。
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All right. So, we got three minutes until the market closes. Let's do a poll right here in the chat and see what people think on what pumps or dumps. Uh we have a lot of stocks. Uh this poll which one outperforms uh which one outperforms today? We have INE. Let's do MP. Let's do Archer. And let me know which of these names you guys own. And then what's the other one? H let's do Open Door. Let's put Open Door in there. Got a lot of different names from a lot of different sectors.
顺便说一下,Robin Hood 确实谈到了他们遇到的 AWS 问题。有人问了一个关于这个问题,我不完全记得回答了什么,但 Vlad 立即回应了,并谈到了一些问题以及他们正在努力确保这种情况不再发生。
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By the way, Robin did talk about the AWS issues that they had. Someone asked a question about it. I don't fully remember the response, but Vlad did respond to it immediately and talk about some of the issues and what they're working on to make sure that that doesn't happen again.
我知道我们这里有很多 IREN 的多头。我们有 SoundHound,还有成吨的公司今天将公布财报。特斯拉的股东大会也将同时举行。是的,正如 Benny 所说,今天公布财报真的很难。Robin Hood 公布了那么好的数据,股价当天却下跌了12%。这只意味着动能正在被冲刷出去,有时候会发生这种情况,但这就是市场的现实。这绝对是11月一个难看的星期四,但事实就是如此。
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I know we got a lot of people that are Ironbulls. We got Sound. We have tons and tons of different companies that we are going to get reporting today. The Tesla shareholder meeting will be happening at the same time as well. And yeah, as Benny says, it's a tough day to report, dude. It's just a tough day to report. I mean, the fact that Robin Hood put up those numbers and down 12% on the day. It It just means momentum is getting flushed out and sometimes that happens, but this is the reality of the markets and it's definitely an ugly Thursday in November, but nonetheless, that's how it's happening.
看到很多人在聊 SoundHound。看到很多人说他们抄底了 BMR。聊天区里有很多关于 ELF 的讨论。还有很多关于 IREN、TTD 的,TTD 下跌了3%,过去一个月受到了重创。SMR、Affirm,很多这些公司今天也要公布财报。DraftKings,他们与 ESPN 签了一份大合同。所以我们会关注它。DraftKings 实际上是少数几只上涨的股票之一,但我们会看到这些股票今天公布财报后的表现。
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See a lot of people saying sound. See a lot of people said they bought the dip on BMR. See a ton of elves in the chat. A lot of INS TTD, that one took that one's down 3%. That one took a hit uh over the past month. SMR, a firm, a lot of those companies are reporting today as well. DraftKings, they signed a big deal with ESPN. So, we're going to get there. DraftKings is actually a little green. One of the only names that's green, but we're going to see a bunch of those stocks as they report today.
好的,朋友们。就是这样。感谢大家的到来。随着收盘的临近,我们将努力报道许多不同的头条新闻,包括特斯拉股东大会、财报、加密货币和宏观经济,我们将继续前进。感谢大家的到来。现在是11月6日,星期四,下午4点。股市现已收盘。
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All right, folks. Here we go. Thank you everybody for being here. We got a lot of different headlines that we'll be trying to cover as we get into the close, including this Tesla shareholder meeting along with earnings, uh, crypto, and macro, and we will keep going from there. Thank everybody for being here. It is Thursday, November 6th, 400 p.m. The stock market is now closed.
盘后财报速览:科技股业绩喜忧参半
好了,我们开始吧。真是糟糕的一天。特斯拉收盘下跌3.5%。美国航空下跌2%。Opendoor 下跌9%。PayPal 下跌2%。Snapchat 曾上涨22%,最终收涨9%,至少还是绿的。标普500指数当天收跌1%。迪士尼下跌0.5%。方舟创新基金(Ark Innovation)下跌4%。Meta 下跌2.6%。Coinbase 下跌7%,失守300美元。AMD 下跌7%。Netflix 下跌约0.5%。Square 下跌3.6%。Roku 下跌1%。DraftKings 当天实际上涨。Palantir 收跌6.84%。Robin Hood 收跌10.81%。Grab 收跌18%,下跌约1美分。Oklo 当天下跌11%。礼来(Eli Lilly)因特朗普在椭圆形办公室与诺和诺德(Novo Nordisk)达成的协议而上涨约1%。Marvell 当天小幅上涨。Figma 财报出色,实际上涨4%。谷歌当天收涨。纳斯达克100指数(QQQ)下跌约1.86%。纳斯达克指数遭受重创,比标普500指数跌得更惨,因为它是有杠杆的科技股。英伟达,我们收在185美元或接近这个价位了吗?我们收在188美元。所以,英伟达下跌3.65%,当天跌了约7美元,但收盘价在185美元以上。
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All right, here we go. Here we go. What a day. Tesla ends down three and a half%. American Airlines down 2%. Open Door down 9%. PayPal down 2%. Snapchat was up 22%. It ended up 9%. At least it was green. S&P 500 was down 1% on the day. Disney was down half a percent. Arc Innovation was down 4%. Meta was down 2.6. Coinbase down seven, lost 300. AMD down 7%. Netflix down about half a percent. Square was down 3.6. Roku was down 1%. Then DraftKings actually up on the day. Palunteer ended down 6.84%. Robin Hood ended down 10.81%. Grabby Grab ended 18% down. So it end down it was down about 1 cent. Oaklo down 11% on the day. Eli Liy was up about 1% because of that deal with Nova Nordis that Trump had in the Oval Office. Marll was up a little bit on the day. Figma was actually up 4%. They had a great earnings. Then Google ended up green on the day. The Q's were down about 1.86%. NASDAQ took a nasty beating, much worse than the S&P 500 as its leverage technology. Nvidia, did we get a 185 or at least close? We got a 188 close. So, Nvidia down 3.65%. Um, down about seven bucks on the day, but Nvidia closing above 185.
好了,财报,财报,财报。让我们来看看。这些是我们关注的公司。我们看看盘后走势。The Trade Desk 盘后上涨10%。TTD 有所动作了。The Trade Desk 之前跌得很惨,从120美元跌到40美元,然后从40美元涨到80美元,又跌回40美元。现在盘后是51美元。这只股票在广告领域承受了很大的痛苦。
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All right, earnings, earnings, earnings. Let's get into it. These are the companies that we've got. We'll see what after hour moves. Trade up 10%. Tradeesk is up 10%. You got to move on TTD. It's giving you a little bit of something again. Trade has been hit really hard. Fell from 120 to 40, then got from 40 to 80, then came all the way back to 40. Now it's at 51 after hours. This one's just been a stock that had a lot of pain, especially in the advertising space.
The Trade Desk:哇,EPS (Earnings Per Share: 每股收益) 超出预期2%,营收超出预期3%。EPS为45美分,预期为44美分。营收为7.39亿美元,预期为7.19亿美元。EPS同比增长10%,营收同比增长18%。The Trade Desk 股价上涨了9%。
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Let me see if I can get those numbers and then we'll get into the other companies that we have. Trade desk. Wow. Beat by 2% on EPS. Beat by 3% on revenue. 45 cents versus 44 cents expected on EPS. Revenue 739 versus 719. EPS is up 10% year-over-year. Revenue is up 18% year-over-year. You do have a 9% move right there on the trade desk as that is green.
IREN 盘后上涨2-3%。我还没有 IREN 的具体数据。哦不,有了。营收看起来超出了5%,2.4亿美元对2.28亿美元。我没有EPS数据。EPS是持平吗?我没看到EPS有任何变动。我稍后再查。TTD 现在正在回落,盘后出现了一根红色蜡烛图。之前涨了10%,现在只涨了4%。
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Iran. Um, Iran is up two. We got a little bit of juice right there on Iran. Iran up 3%. Don't have the numbers yet on Iran. Oh, no, we do. I uh, okay, revenue, it looks like they beat by 5%. Uh, uh, 240 versus 228. I don't have an EPS number. I don't have EPS. Did EPS come in flat? I'm not seeing any move on EPS. I'll try to get that in a second. TTD is fading now. There's that red candle right there after hours. Was up 10. Now it's up four.
Peloton 今天也有财报,他们还因为技术问题召回了80万辆自行车。Opendoor 盘后下跌1.3%。IREN 现在也在回落。我还是没有 IREN 的EPS目标。Square 还没有数据,上涨1.4%。Peloton 上涨3.4%。Texas Roadhouse 持平。Airbnb 持平。Archer 上涨1%。SMR 上涨2%,Affirm 持平。Airbnb 现在开始动了,上涨了5%。
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Pelaton also has earnings today, which they also had a recall of 800,000 bikes because of a technical issue. So, yeah, that headline today. Uh, Open Door is down 1.3% after hours. Iran now fading. I don't see an EPS target on Iran. Let me see if I can get in a second, but don't have the yet. Square don't have their numbers. That's up 1.4%. Pelon's up 3.4. Texas Roadhouse flat. Airbnb is flat. Archers up one. SMR is uh up two and a firm is flat. Airbnb is now moving. Airbnb you got 5% move a little bit on Airbnb.
SoundHound 还没有数据。我们有 Sunrun 的数据,如果有人关心的话。EPS为6美分,预期为14美分,未达标57%。营收为7.24亿美元,预期为6.01亿美元,超出21%。营收同比增长35%,EPS同比增长116%。这是一家太阳能电池板公司,对吧?Sunrun 盘后上涨3%。
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Sound don't have numbers yet. We do have Sunun if anyone cares about that. Uh 6 cents versus 14 cents EPS missed by 57%. 724 versus 601. They beat by 21%. Revenues up 35% year-over-year EPS up 116%. This is a solar panel company, right? Sunun up 3% after hours. Either energy or solar or panels. One one of the two. I think it's in that niche. I've heard of this company a while ago, but that one did miss on EPS. They beat on revenue.
SoundHound,我还没有他们的数据,但股价下跌了2%。Airbnb 刚拿到数据。Airbnb 的EPS未达标4%,为2.21美元,预期为2.31美元。营收为40.9亿美元,略高于预期的40.8亿美元。营收同比增长10%,EPS同比增长4%。Airbnb 上涨2.8%。
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Sound, I don't have their numbers yet, but that's down 2%. Airbnb just got it. Airbnb missed by 4% on EPS. 221 versus 231 expected. Revenue was a slight beat at 4.09 versus 4.08. Revenue is up 10% year-over-year. EPS is up 4% year-over-year. Airbnb is up 2.8. Correct. They're solar. Okay. So, they are solar. They missed on EPS by 57%. Airbnb um missed by 4% on EPS. That stock it's up 2%. Nothing too crazy on Airbnb.
IREN 正在上涨,涨了5%。让我看看能不能找到更准确的 IREN 数据。奇怪,没人有EPS的来源。为什么营收出来了,EPS还没出来?这怎么可能?营收是2.4亿美元对2.28亿美元。我去他们网站看看。每股收益到底在哪里?我还没看到。盘后股价涨到了71美元,涨了6%。IREN 的网站也打不开了,加载不出来,504网关错误。好吧,你们把网站刷爆了。
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Iren is running a little bit. Okay. Iran is running 5%. Let me see if I can get some more accurate numbers on Iran. Um, yeah, this is weird, dude. No one has the source for EPS. How is EPS not out, but revenues out? How does that make any sense? Revenue is 240 versus 228. Let me go to their website. Where the hell is the earnings per share? I don't see it yet. We are getting a move after hours 71 that's up 6%. Uh I ran website. Yeah, I renit's down too. It's not loading for me. 504 gateway. Okay. D I rent. Bro, you guys are spamming that website trying to get these numbers. That one's not showing it right now.
SoundHound 暴跌9%。Absci 也有财报,盘后下跌5%,现在跌7%。USAR 正在被重创,下跌9%。这对 MP 来说不是好兆头,MP 也要公布数据。MP 只下跌了0.5%,但稀土领域的 USAR 受到了重创。IREN 是盘后唯一真正上涨的股票。
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sound nuked 9% down on Sound. Oh, Absela also has earnings today as well. Uh, Abselera down 5% after hours. It was down three now down 7%. It was down 3% in the day, down 7% right here. I'll see if I can get their numbers in a second. Absel right there down about 7%. US AR is getting wrecked. Don't have their numbers yet, but US wow down 9%. All right, that doesn't look the best for MP. That's also going to put up numbers. MP's only down half a percent, but US in that rare earth space is getting hit. Iran, the only stock that's really seeing any green after hours.
SoundHound:哇,EPS未达标200%。他们亏损27美分,预期为亏损9美分。营收为4200万美元,预期为4000万美元,超出4%。营收同比增长68%,EPS同比下降350%。这些人为什么亏这么多钱?我不知道。但这绝对是 SoundHound 的一个难看的业绩。
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Sound? Okay, Sound. Wow. Missed by 200% on EPS. They lost 27 cents versus 9 cents expected. Revenue was 42 versus 40. They beat revenue by 4%. Revenue is up 68% year-over-year. EPS is down 350% year-over-year. Why are these guys losing that much money? I don't know. But that is definitely an ugly miss for uh Soundhound.
如果你不盈利,而且你的股票有很多动能驱动而不是盈利,那么在今天这样的日子里,情况就不太好看了。但我很困惑,他们为什么会错过EPS 300%?这感觉要么是结构性问题,要么是税务会计问题,但在大多数公司都以两位数超出EPS的世界里,以三位数未达标有点奇怪。
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That's gonna get Look, yeah, if you're not profitable and if there's a lot of momentum driving your stock and not a lot of earnings, I mean, on a day like today, it's uh it's not the prettiest. But I but I am confused, dude. Why are they missing EPS by 300%. That is like that there's an issue. feels either structurally or maybe there's a tax accounting thing but missing like in a world in which most companies are beating EPS by double digits missing by triple digits is a bit weird
MP 下跌1.2%。The Trade Desk 现在转为下跌。Expedia 预订量增长12%,受B2B业务26%增长驱动,B2C总预订量增长7%。Expedia 盘后上涨9%。奇怪的一天,一些旅游股上涨,很多其他消费股下跌,但至少 Expedia 盘后上涨,显示旅游业可能没有处于最糟糕的境地。
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MPs down 1.2 to trade now goes red. Tradees now goes red. Expedia bookings grew by 12% driven by a 26 in 26% increase in B2B B toC gross bookings grew by 7%. Expedia stock after hours is up 9%. Weird day. You got some travel stocks going up, a lot of other consumer stocks going down, but you got Expedia at least getting that move after hours showing the travel sector might not be in the worst situation.
Opendoor 下跌了。天哪,那是个大跌。下跌了12%。看看它能否恢复。
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Open Door is down. Oh boy, that is a dump. That is a dumpy dump. That's down 12%. Let's see if it can recover.
MP Materials:EPS超出预期38%,为10美分,预期为负6美分。营收为5350万美元,预期为5300万美元。营收同比下降15%,EPS同比增长17%。所以MP是双重超预期。
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I do have MP materials. They beat by 38% on EPS10 cents versus negative6 cents expected. Revenue 53.5 versus 53. Revenues down 15% year-over-year. EPS is up 17% year-over-year. So MP does have a double beat.
Opendoor 下跌14%。天哪,他们到底说了什么,会这么糟糕?EPS未达标71%。预期为负12美分,实际为负7美分。营收为9.15亿美元,预期为8.82亿美元。他们确实在营收上超出了预期,超出了近4000万美元,超出4%。但营收同比下降了34%。天哪,营收同比下降34%,EPS下降9%。
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Open door down 14%. My goodness, dude. What did these guys say? What did these guys say for it to be that bad? See if we can get the numbers. Uh ah that's uh not pretty. Not pretty. 71% miss on EPS. Negative 12 cents expected. Negative 12 cents versus negative.7 cents expected. 915 versus 8.82. They did beat on revenue. It's not a bad beat by almost 40 million on revenue. Beat by 4%. Revenue is down 34% year-over-year. My goodness. Revenue is down 34% year-over-year. EPS is down 9%.
所以这显然不是一只成长股,因为他们还没有真正实现任何增长。可能他们在其他一些指标上有所增长,但不是华尔街关注的顶线和底线数据。71%的未达标有点过分了。我相信他们是毛利盈利的,但不是GAAP盈利。随着公司规模的扩大,他们可以实现GAAP盈利,但这比华尔街预期的要多。股价曾下跌14%,现在只下跌8%。有大量的人进来抄底Opendoor。
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Okay, so this is obviously not a growth stock because they're not really growing anything yet. There's probably some other metrics they are growing that might not be kind of topline bottom line numbers that Wall Street looks at. Uh 71% miss is a bit aggressive. Now I I I believe they are gross profitable. They're not gap profit or no sorry they're profitable on an adjusted EBID basis not on a gap basis which you know companies over time as they can scale their models can get to that gap profitability but that is a bit more than the street expected. It was down 14 now it's down eight. You have a ton of people coming in and buying the dip on open door.
天哪,《侠盗猎车手6》(GTA 6)推迟到2026年11月19日发布。Take-Two 下跌8%。他们把发布推迟了六个月。天哪。
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Oh my goodness. GTA 6 delays release until November 19th, 2026. Take Two is down 8%. Someone asked me in the morning, "What do you think of Take Two?" And I I think the literal response I gave was, "It all depends on GTA." And I don't know enough about video games or the timing of that video game in particular to understand if uh the stock is worth buying because I don't know if there's going to be delayed. I don't know how successful the game is going to be. But I do know that game is everything for Take Two. Wow, dude. Take they delayed it by six months. Goodness gracious. November 2026.
Square 下跌4%。哇,他们EPS未达标21%,54美分对68美分。营收61亿美元对63亿美元。天哪,上周很多科技公司都没有出现两位数的未达标。今天几乎每家公司要么未达标,要么严重未达标。为什么Square的EPS会未达标21%?为什么营收同比增长2%?这本应是美国最重要的金融科技公司之一。Cash App 是应用商店排名第一的应用。天哪。EPS增长2%,营收增长2%,顶线和底线都未达标。Square 下跌1.72%。
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Square, that's down 4%. Square is down four right here. I'll see if I can get those numbers as well. Uh again, Expedia, one of the names that's doing well after hours. Take 2 getting hit pretty bad as a result. I don't have DraftKings yet as a result of this GTA stuff. Square. Wow, they missed by 21% on EPS. 54 cents versus 68 cents expected. And then 6.1 versus 6.3 billion. Dude, I mean, a lot of tech companies last week were not missing by double digits. Almost every company today is either missing or they're missing badly. Why is Square missing EPS by 21%. Why is revenue up 2% year-over-year? Why is EPS up two? Like this is this is supposed to be one of the most important fintexs, at least in America. Cash App is the number one app on the app store. Goodness gracious. EPS up 2%, revenue up 2%, missed on the top and bottom. Square right there down 1.72%.
Affirm:哇,EPS超出预期109%,23美分对11美分。营收9.33亿美元对8.83亿美元。营收超出5000万美元,即6%。营收同比增长34%,EPS同比增长174%。股票没有疯狂上涨,但这看起来是一个非常强劲的顶线和底线双重超预期。
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a firm, wow, beat by 109% on EPS. 23 cents versus 11 cents expected. 933 versus 883 million on revenue. Beat by 50 million on revenue by 6%. Revenue is up 34% year-over-year. EPS is up 174% year-over-year. Uh stocks not moving like crazy, but that looks like a very strong topline bottom line beat on EPS.
IREN 上涨3%。我们有EPS数据了吗?是的,1.08美元对9美分。如果这是准确的,那就是1000%的EPS超预期。那1.08美元是因为比特币的 FASB (Financial Accounting Standards Board: 财务会计准则委员会) 会计规则吗?还是因为会计上的某些东西,或者真的是因为数据中心业务的利润率让他们能达到这个水平?如果是后者,那真是个惊人的业绩。如果是会计技巧,那就另当别论了。
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Okay, Irene's up 3%. Do we have the number yet for EPS? Do we have the number on their earnings per share? Yes. Uh A$18. A dollar8 versus nine cents expected. That's a,000% beat on EPS if that's accurate. Is that what you guys have? That's what I have. That's what I'm looking at. I ran a,000% beat. Now again, that dollar rate, is that because of Bitcoin, Fazby stuff? Is that because of something accounting or is that actually because the data center business had margins that allowed them to beat by that level? If they did, then that's a hell of a beat. That's a hell of a beat. If it's some accounting thing, then it is what it is.
Dropbox:EPS超出预期14%,74美分对65美分。营收6.34亿美元对6.23亿美元。所以Dropbox顶线和底线都超预期。该股盘后上涨5.4%。
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Uh, Dropbox beat by 14% 74 cents versus 65 cents expected on EPS 634 versus 623 million on revenue. So, you do have Dropbox getting a beat on the top and the bottom. That stock is up 5.4% after hours as well.
特斯拉年度股东大会
由于音频质量问题,以下为特斯拉股东大会直播的部分内容转录。
Brandon Ehrhart (总法律顾问兼公司秘书): 我的名字是 Brandon Ehrhart,我是公司的总法律顾问兼公司秘书。与去年类似,本次会议将分为两部分。我们将审议14个投票项目,第二部分将由埃隆·马斯克发言。
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>> my name is Brandonheart I'm the general counsel and corporate secretary and >> The audio sucks on their side guys it's not that good for me so I don't think it's that good for you I'll see if I can get a better stream but this is on the main Tesla website. The audio is not really the best. >> Similar to last year, this meeting will have two parts. We'll go through the 14 ballot items and the second part, Elon Musk.
Robyn Denholm (董事会主席): 大家下午好。非常欢迎大家参加2025年度股东大会。我们特斯拉若没有你们,我们的股东,就不可能继续创造奇迹。我们与你们的持续互动使我们所做的一切成为可能。我很高兴今年有这么多人发出了自己的声音,因为我们立志要创造比历史上任何其他公司都更多的价值。
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Well, good afternoon everyone. It's wonderful um to welcome you all to the 2025 annual shareholder meeting. I apologize for the my voice. I've been speaking to investors for the last couple of weeks, non-stop, I think. So, we here at Tesla could not continue to do the impossible without you, our shareholders. Our ongoing engagement with you all makes what we do possible. And I'm thrilled at how many of you made your voices heard this year as we aspire to create more value than any other company in history.
特斯拉正处于一个拐点。过去一年是我们历史上至关重要的一年。我们继续在生产、客户体验和所有权方面重新定义汽车行业。Model Y 再次成为2024年全球最畅销的车型。我们的能源业务持续达到新高度,2024年部署了31吉瓦时,是2023年的两倍多。这个已安装基础是我们未来价值创造的平台,特斯拉将通过自动驾驶出租车(robo taxi)和由我们的现实世界人工智能驱动的虚拟电厂等服务来实现。
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Tesla is at an inflection point. I think I've said that 3,000 times over the last few weeks. And this last year has been a critical one in our history. I want to take some time to review the acknowledgements and achievements by the Tesla team of which I and my fellow directors are incredibly proud of. We continue to redefine the automotive industry across production, customer experience, and ownership. Model Y was once again the bestselling vehicle worldwide of any vehicle in 2024. And with the new Model Y released earlier this year, it's now better than ever. Our energy business continues to reach new heights. And we deployed 31 gawatt hours in 2024, more than double what we achieved in 2023. The installed base serves as the platform for our future value. And that creation over time Tesla will achieve through services such as robo taxi and virtual power plants powered by our realworld AI.
2024年,通过使用我们的产品,特斯拉消费者避免了近3200万公吨的温室气体排放,同比增长70%。我们的车辆在全球测试中始终达到最高的安全标准,并且这种安全性通过 Autopilot 技术得到不断增强。2024年,我们的全球车队每行驶超过680万英里才发生一次碰撞。这比美国普通驾驶员安全10倍。
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In 2024, through the use of our products, Tesla consumers avoided releasing nearly 32 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions. And this is a 70% increase year-over-year. Our vehicles consistently achieve the highest safety standards uh when tested across the world and that safety is increasingly enhanced with autopilot technology. In 2024, our global fleet of vehicles experienced one crash after driving more than 6.8 million miles. That's amazing. 6.8 million miles. And to put that in context, that is 10 times better or safer than the average driver in the US. 10 times better.
致我们了不起的员工,感谢你们为实现我们的使命所付出的辛勤努力。你们是特斯拉跳动的心脏。致我们的股东,再次感谢你们的支持。请知悉,我们正在倾听你们的意见,并在此代表你们的利益。
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To our amazing employees, thank you for all of your hard work in achieving our mission. You are the beating heart of Tesla and we cannot continue to deliver without you. to the management team who never get a shout out. Thank you for your huge efforts. To our shareholders, all of you in the room and on the webcast globally, once again, thank you for your support. Please know that we are listening to you and are here to represent your interests.
Brandon Ehrhart: 我现在宣布会议开始。现在是下午3点25分,我宣布投票现在开始。
随后,会议审议了多项特斯拉提案和股东提案,包括董事选举、高管薪酬、审计师任命、投资XAI、高管薪酬与可持续性指标挂钩、童工审计、废除衍生诉讼所有权门槛等。
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>> Thank you, Robin. I will now call the meeting to order. It is 3:25 p.m. and I declare that the polls are now open.
Brandon Ehrhart (宣布投票结果): 根据我们收到的代理投票和会上提交的选票,我想初步宣布以下结果。关于股东提案第8至14项,我们的股东支持了特斯拉董事会对所有提案的建议,除了第12号提案。关于第7号提案,即对XAI的投资,虽然我们收到的赞成票多于反对票,但有大量的弃权票。由于这是咨询性投票,董事会将根据股东的支持程度研究下一步行动。
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Based on the proxies that we have received and the votes submitted at the meeting, I'd like to announce these results on a preliminary basis. With respect to the shareholder proposals items 8 through 14, our shareholders have supported the recommendations on this Tesla board on all of them other than proposal 12. With respect to proposal seven regarding XAI. While we have received more votes in favor than we did in against, there were a significant number of abstensions. Since this is an advisory vote, the board will examine the next steps in light of this level of shareholder support.
现在,关于特斯拉的提案。首先,关于修改组织文件以取消某些超级多数投票要求的提案,我们的股东未予批准。第二,关于高管薪酬的咨询性投票,我们的股东已批准。第三,关于批准普华永道为我们2025财年独立注册会计师事务所的提案,股东已批准。第四,关于选举三位三级董事的提案,我们的股东已重新选举他们。第五,关于修订和重述2019年股权激励计划的提案,我们的股东已批准。第六,也是最后,关于授予我们的创始人兼CEO埃隆·马斯克的2025年CEO业绩奖励计划,超过75%的投票赞成,已获批准。
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Now, moving on to the Tesla proposals. First, on the proposal to adopt amendments to our organizational documents to eliminate certain supermajority voting requirements, our shareholders have not approved. Second, on the seon pay advisory vote, our shareholders have approved. Third, on the ratification of the appointment of Price Waterhouse Coopers as our Tesla's independent registered public accounting firm for the 2025 fiscal year, shareholders have approved. Fourth, on the election of our three class 3 directors, Ira, Joe, and Kathleen, our shareholders have reelected them. Fifth, on the amended and restated 2019 equity incentive plan, our shareholders have approved. Sixth, and finally on the 2025 CEO Performance Award to our founder and CEO, Elon Musk with over 75% voting in favor. Approved.
埃隆·马斯克登场:开启“可持续富足”新篇章
Elon Musk: 谢谢大家。首先,我想衷心感谢所有支持股东投票的人。我非常感激。谢谢大家。我们即将开启的,不仅仅是特斯拉未来的新篇章,而是一本全新的书。
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>> Thanks, guys. Uh first of all, I'd like to just give a heartfelt thanks to uh everyone who supported the the shareholder votes. Uh I super appreciate it. Thank you everyone. and uh and and and what we're about to embark upon is not merely a new chapter of the future of Tesla, but a whole new book and I'm going to talk about that.
Optimus 是其中的基础部分。Optimus 的规模之大……我想说,地球上的每个人都会想要拥有自己的个人R2-D2。我认为工业界可能会有数十亿个 Optimus 机器人。
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Optimus is a fundamental part of a that. The the sheer scale of Optimus I mean I guess a way to think about is that uh every human on Earth is going to want to have their own personal R2-D2C3 video. I think there could be tens of billions of of Optimus robots out there.
人们经常谈论消除贫困,为每个人提供惊人的医疗保健。实际上,只有一种方法可以做到,那就是通过 Optimus 机器人。通过人形机器人,你实际上可以为每个人提供惊人的医疗保健。Optimus 最终会比最好的人类外科医生更好,其精确度是人类无法达到的。
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you know, people often talk about like eliminating poverty, giving everyone amazing medical care. Well, there's actually only one way to do that, and that's with the Optimus robot. with with humanoid robots you can actually give everyone amazing medical care. Uh so uh in terms of optimist will be more precise optimist will ultimately be better than the best human surgeon with a level of precision that that isn't possible that that that is beyond human.
在某个时刻,通过人工智能和机器人技术,你实际上可以将全球经济增长10倍,甚至100倍。没有明显的限制。Optimus 就像一个无限的金钱漏洞。所以,我想说的是,请持有你们的特斯拉股票。
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now and and and things do get kind of wild from an economic standpoint Um because at a certain point uh with AI and robotics you can actually increase the global economy by a factor of 10 or maybe a 100. Um there's there's not like an obvious limit. Uh so um like Optimus is kind of like an infinite money glitch. uh so uh I guess what I'm saying is hang on to your Tesla stock.
我们创立特斯拉的目标是加速可持续能源的到来,我们已经做到了。但现在有了人工智能和机器人技术,我们需要更新我们的使命。我们的新使命是:实现可持续的富足。
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you know when we started Tesla the the goal was to accelerate the advent of sustainable energy and that is uh that's what we've done and Tesla has really led the way in with with electric vehicles with battery packs uh with a lot of solar and uh many other companies have have then followed our lead and done that and electric cars which used to be uh non-existent are now prevalent. Um but obviously now with with AI and robotics, uh we need to update our mission. Um and our mission um I think it's a good it's it's the it's a great mission which is to achieve sustainable abundance
核心产品展望:从自动驾驶到人形机器人
我们有数百万辆特斯拉汽车,它们就像是“穿靴子的猫”,它们很智能,但人们不知道它们智能。它们看起来像普通汽车,但实际上它们超级聪明,可以自己驾驶。
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we've got, you know, millions of of Tesla cars out there that are the kind of like puss and boots that they're intelligent, but people don't know that they're intelligent. They look like normal cars, but actually they're super smart and can drive themselves.
现在有了14.1版本,我们实际上已经接近于可以放心地允许人们边开车边发短信了,这可以说是杀手级应用,因为这正是人们想做的事情。我相信在未来一两个月内,我们会允许你边开车边发短信。
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and and and now with version 14, we're actually getting to the point where we're almost feel comfortable allowing people to text and drive, which is kind of the killer app because that that's really what people want to do and do do. Um and uh but I'm confident that in the next month or two uh we should we we're going to look closely at the safety statistics but we will allow uh you to um text and drive essentially.
我们还有第一款专门为无人监督的完全自动驾驶而制造的汽车,作为自动驾驶出租车。它被称为 CyberCab。它甚至没有踏板或方向盘。它的生产就在这个工厂进行,我们将在明年四月开始生产。
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and then we've got the the the first car that is specifically built for, uh, unsupervised full self-driving to to be a robo taxi. It's called a cyber cab. It doesn't even have pedals or steering wheel. Um, yeah. So, no, there's no side view mirrors. There's no Yeah. So it's it's and and it's it's very much optimized to min for for the lowest cost per mile in in an autonomous mode. Um and that production is happening right here in this factory and we'll be starting production in April next year.
当你审视制造 Optimus 所需的要素时,值得注意的是,我们制造的汽车已经是机器人了,只是它们是四轮机器人。所以特斯拉已经是世界上最大的机器人制造商。
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the ingredients when you look at at at what Optimus is what's required to make Optimus and the various ingredients uh what do you need to do to make to do high volume uh humanoid robot production uh I think it's worth considering that really the cars we make are already robots but there four-w wheeled robots. So Tesla is already the biggest robot manufacturer in the world because every car we make is a robot.
关于机器人,有三件事非常困难。一是前臂和手部的工程设计,因为人手是一件令人难以置信的东西。二是现实世界的人工智能,三是大规模制造。特斯拉是唯一一家同时拥有这三者的公司。
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There's really three things that are super difficult about robots. One is the engineering of the forearm and hand because the human hand is an an incredible incredible thing actually. It's super dextrous. So, uh engineering the hand really well, the uh real world AI and then volume manufacturing, those are generally the things that are missing. One or more of those things are missing from other companies. Um so Tesla is the only one that has all three of those.
明年我们将开始生产 Optimus 第三版。当你看到 Optimus 3时,你会觉得那就像一个穿着机器人服装的人。然后是 Optimus 4,希望在2027年开始生产,接着是2028年的 Optimus 5。这就像一个年度发布周期,每一次都有重大改进,生产规模也呈几何级数增长。
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you know, next year we saw production with Optimus version 3. Uh this what you're seeing here is Optimus version 2.5. Optimus 3 is is an incredibly good good design. The Tesla engineering team is amazing. Um, when you see Optimus 3, yeah. Uh, you it will seem as though that there's someone like like a a person in a robot outfit. Um, which is how we started with Optimus. Um, really is going to be something special. Um, and then Optimus uh, Optimus 4, you know, that that that hopefully starts production in 27 and then Optimus 5 in 28. So, it's kind of like an annual release cycle with significant improvements uh, with each one and and gigantic increases in the scale of production.
驱动未来的基石:自研 AI 芯片与产能扩张
我一直在新的特斯拉芯片设计上投入大量时间。为了拥有一个功能强大的机器人,你必须有一个出色的人工智能芯片。我们相信 AI5 芯片的功耗大约是英伟达 Blackwell 芯片的三分之一,性能大致相当,而成本不到其10%。
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I've been putting a lot of time into the new Tesla chip design, um, because in order to have a functional robot, you have to have a great AI chip. Um, and it needs to be an inexpensive chip and it needs to be very power efficient. So we we we believe the uh AI5 chip will be probably about a third of the power of uh say something like a Blackwell um an an Nvidia Blackwell which is a great a great chip um for roughly comparable performance um and about and and much less than 10% of the cost.
这款芯片将在四个地方生产:台湾的台积电、韩国的三星、亚利桑那州的台积电和德克萨斯州的台积电。我们已经知道如何为 AI6 进行改进。
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So this this chip will be um made in basically in four places uh TSMC Taiwan, Samsung Korea, TSMC Arizona and TSMC Texas. and and and we already know what improvements to make for AI6.
即使我们推断出供应商芯片生产的最佳情况,仍然不够。所以我认为我们可能不得不建立一个特斯拉的 Terafab(万亿级工厂)。我看不到有其他方法可以达到我们所寻求的芯片产量。
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even when we extrapolate the best case scenario for chip production from our suppliers, uh it's still not enough. So I think we may have to do a Tesla Terraab. So, it's like giga but way bigger. I I can't see any other way to get to the volume of chips that that we're looking for. Um, so I think we're probably going to have to build a gigantic chip app.
明年我们将开始生产特斯拉半挂卡车(Tesla Semi)。我们将在2026年在我们北内华达州的工厂开始批量生产。所以明年我们有三款重磅产品开始生产:Optimus、特斯拉 Semi 和 CyberCab。
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and then starting next year we uh we manufacture the Tesla semi. So this this is already we already have a lot of um prototype Tesla semis in operation. Uh Pepsco and other companies have been using the Tesla semi for quite some time. Um, but we will start volume production uh at our um Northern Nevada factory uh uh in 2026. So, we got we got two big products or three three massive products starting production next year. We got Optimus, we got uh Tesla Semi, and we got the Cyber Cap
问答环节:展望未来与回应股东关切
在问答环节,埃隆·马斯克回应了关于 FSD 权益转移、比特币投资、Robovan 生产、电池技术、产能提升目标、Roadster 跑车发布计划、人类意识上传、太空太阳能以及对 SpaceX 的投资渠道等问题。
关于 FSD 权益转移: 我们之前做过几次,我想我们可以再延长一次。好的,我们会延长,至少再延长一个季度。
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>> Well, we we have done that a few times. Um, I guess uh I guess we could extend it again. Um, all right. We'll extend it. We'll we'll extend it for at least another quarter.
关于产能提升: 我们将努力以尽可能快的速度扩大汽车产量。我们的目标是到明年年底将汽车产量提高约50%。
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>> the what we're we're going to try to we're going to push to expand vehicle production as fast as we possibly can. Um so aspirationally would aim to increase vehicle production by about 50% by the end of next year.
关于 Roadster 跑车: Roadster 2 的产品发布会将于明年4月1日举行。我对此有一定的否认空间,因为我可以说我只是在开玩笑。但我们确实暂定目标是4月1日。我认为这将是所有产品中最激动人心的演示,无论成功与否。生产大概在那之后12到18个月。
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>> the product unveiled uh will be of of of the Roadster 2 which will be very different from what was shown previously. Uh that that demo event will be April 1st of next year. I have some deniability because like I could say I was just kidding. Uh but uh we are actually tenatively aiming for April 1st uh uh for this what I think will be the most exciting whether it works or not uh demo ever of any product and then um I guess production is probably about a you know 12 to 18 months after that.
关于人类意识上传: 我的意思是,这并非迫在眉睫。但如果你说未来,你是否能够通过 Neuralink 获得某人思想的快照,或者至少是近似的快照,然后将该近似快照上传到 Optimus 的身体里。我认为在某个时候,这项技术会成为可能。可能不到20年。
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>> Yeah. I mean it's not like uh immediate um but if you say it down the road uh would you be able to say with a neural link have a snapshot of or at least an approximate snapshot of somebody's mind and then upload that approximate snapshot to uh an optimist body. I think I think that at some point that technology becomes possible. Um, and it it it it probably less than 20 years. Yeah.
关于AI的未来: 我认为从长远来看,坦率地说,将是人工智能掌权,而不是人类。如果人工智能远远超过人类智能的总和,很难想象任何人类会真正掌权。所以,我们只需要确保人工智能是友好的。
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>> Well, I mean, I think actually long term, uh, the AI is going to be in charge to be totally frank, not humans. Um, if if if if artificial intelligence vastly exceeds the sum of human intelligence, it is difficult to imagine that that any humans will actually be in charge. So, we just need to make sure the AI is friendly.
关于特斯拉汽车成为分布式AI推理网络: 我们可以做的一件事是,当汽车闲置时,将其用作一个庞大的分布式AI推理集群。在征得客户同意的情况下,我们会问:“你希望你的车在晚上停在车库里时为你赚钱吗?”我们可能会每月支付100或200美元。这样,特斯拉最终可能拥有世界上最大的AI推理计算能力。
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>> But then the one of the things we could do is when the car is idle is use the car as a massive distributed uh uh AI in in inference fleet. So um you know with the consent customers we're like do you want your car to earn money for you while it's sitting in your garage at night? you know, um I don't know, we'll pay, you know, $100 a month or $200 a month or whatever the right number is, uh if you allow te Tesla to do, uh AI inference workloads, uh when you're not using your car. Um so, and that will also help the AI in the car not get bored. Um so, because like I sort of imagine like what if I got stuck in a car? you know, and then well, and the highlight of your day was driving. It's like, you know, but they don't always want to drive, so then what do you do the rest of the time? Um, so so so I think Tesla could actually end up having the the largest uh the Tesla might end up having the most amount of AI inference compute uh in the world.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Jensen Huang, Sam Altman, Bill Ackman, Vlad Tenev, Elon Musk, Tom Lee
公司/组织: Robin Hood, Tesla, Nvidia, S&P 500, AMD, SoFi, Grab, Google, Reddit, Amazon, Meta, Salesforce, PayPal, Duolingo, SoundHound, Airbnb, Oklo, DraftKings, Affirm, Square, MP Materials, Monster Beverage, Peloton, Texas Roadhouse, Take-Two Interactive, OpenAI, Rocket Lab, AWS, ESPN, Disney, Coinbase, Roku, Palantir, Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Marvell, Figma, The Trade Desk, IREN, Expedia, Dropbox, XAI, TSMC, Samsung, Intel, Waymo
产品/模型: TPU, SNAP, VIX, FSD, Optimus, Model Y, Autopilot, Grok, Cybertruck, CyberCab, Powerwall, Blackwell
媒体/书籍: The Culture Series