欧洲致命热浪:气候适应系统的压力测试
热浪(Heat wave)正席卷欧洲,英国、法国和西班牙正面临最严峻的极端高温考验,多地气温已飙升至华氏100度(约摄氏37.8度)以上。由于这些地区的历史建筑、住宅、学校和商业场所是基于过去的凉爽气候设计的,普遍未配备空调系统(Air conditioning),甚至部分建筑的设计初衷是为了保温,因此难以应对当前的极端气候。目前,欧洲的变暖速度已位居全球各洲之首。在巴黎,市民不得不依靠便携式风扇和喷雾器防暑,并聚集在阴凉处避暑。为了应对危机,巴黎市长已决定将通常在夜间关闭的公园保持24小时开放,许多无法忍受室内闷热的居民选择在公园露宿。
随着人群涌向各类水域避暑,在过去几天里,法国已有至少40人因在无安全监管的区域游泳而溺水身亡,死者多数为年轻人。气象学家指出,导致本轮极端高温的罪魁祸首是热穹顶(Heat dome:一种高压系统,像盖子一样将热空气锁在特定区域),受全球气候变化影响,这种现象在世界范围内正变得愈发频繁。自20年前一场导致70,000人死亡的夏季热浪后,欧洲各国已建立起预警系统、冷却避难所,并为易受伤害的脆弱老年群体建立登记跟踪机制。然而,公共卫生专家警告,当前的适应措施面对即将到来的气候危机依然远远不够。
Original English
A heat wave has gripped Europe with high temperatures threatening to shatter records. Britain, France, and Spain are facing the most intense conditions with temperatures soaring well over 100° F, often in places that were not built for that. Many homes, schools, and businesses there were designed for the cooler climate of the past. Air conditioning is not standard. Some buildings were even designed to retain heat. But Europe is now warming faster than any other continent. It has been very difficult out here in Paris for the past couple of days. You see people holding portable fans, water sprayers, clinging to areas with shade. My colleague Seelin Lstradik says that in France the heat has driven some people out of their homes. Because of the extreme temperatures, the mayor of Paris has decided to keep parks open 24/7. Uh they usually close at night. So, I went for a walk very early yesterday morning and I could tell people had spent the night sleeping in the park. In the last few days, at least 40 people in France have drowned as crowds have poured into any swimming spot they can find. Officials say many of the victims were young and swimming in unsupervised areas. Across the continent, the current temperatures are being driven up by a heat dome, a kind of high pressure system that basically acts like a lid on a pot of boiling water. Because of climate change, heat domes are becoming more common worldwide. In Europe, they've been trying to prepare for this. Two decades ago, a summer heat wave caused a staggering 70,000 deaths. In response, countries created early warning systems and organized more cooling shelters. Paris even built a registry of elderly and vulnerable residents who get check-in calls when temperatures rise. This summer, experts say, will be a test of many of those systems. One public health expert told the Times, quote, "We have adapted, but it is far from enough for what is coming."纽约初选风向标:进步派的崛起与外交分歧
在纽约举行的国会众议院民主党初选中,进步派阵营取得了重大胜利。这一政治势力的壮大主要由纽约市长佐兰·姆达尼(Zoran Mdani)所推动。姆达尼将此次初选视为对民主党未来发展方向的一次“全民公投”,并公开支持了一系列参选人,其中有两位候选人成功击败了党内的现任温和派议员。
赢得选举的候选人不仅共享姆达尼的渐进式经济纲领(Progressive economic platform),而且在停止美国对以色列的军事和政治支持上立场一致。这一选举结果表明,民主党内部对以色列政府及其军事行动的批评声浪正日渐高涨,选民在即将到来的秋季中期选举前,展现出了对“革新者”而非“守成者”的强烈偏好。
与此同时,前总统约翰·F·肯尼迪的孙子杰克·施洛斯伯格(Jack Schlossberg)在纽约的国会竞选中失利。施洛斯伯格此前凭借其在社交媒体上极具攻击性、甚至有些粗俗的政治评论员形象在网络走红,并时常公开抨击其担任众议院秘书的著名表兄小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪(Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)。尽管早期民调显示他有获胜希望,且获得了前众议院议长南希·佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)的背书,但分析指出,缺乏政府行政或实际政治运作经验成为其致命短板。这表明社交媒体的关注度虽能帮助候选人获得入场券,却无法直接转化为实际的胜选选票。
Original English
AND LET'S HEAR IT FOR THE DEMOCRATIC SOCIALIST of America. In New York last night, a set of primaries for House seats delivered a resounding win for the left wing of the Democratic Party, bolstering the political movement championed by New York City's mayor, Zoran Mani. The old politics that got us to this crisis is not the politics that's going to get us out of this crisis. Mdani had called the congressional primaries a referendum on the direction of the Democratic party and he endorsed a series of candidates who won last night including two who ousted Democratic incumbents. The winning candidates share Mamani's progressive economic platform. They'd also all been outspoken about ending American support for Israel, a sign of how many in the Democratic party have grown increasingly critical of Israel and its government. Overall, last night's results in New York show voters hunger for insurgency over incumbency and their hopes for a political shakeup heading into the midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, one of the candidates who came up short last night in New York was Jack Schllober, the grandson of President John F. Kennedy. Before he announced his run for Congress, Schlloberg had made a name for himself online as a combative, sometimes crude social media personality and provocator who cracked jokes and went after his famous cousin, House Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Early polling had shown Schloberg with a path to victory and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi even endorsed him. But Times political correspondent Lisa Lair says that in the end it was not enough. Schlloberg was hampered by his lack of experience in government or really politics at all. So, I think his campaign here really just shows how social media and a social media presence can get a candidate on the ticket and put them in the running, but it can't necessarily win them the seat.美国跨党派住房法案:缓解供给短缺的制度尝试
美国国会通过了一项具有里程碑意义的跨党派住房法案,旨在通过增加住房供给来解决全国性的住房危机,预计将由总统签署成法。过去,高昂的住房成本主要被视为大型一线城市的特有挑战,但新冠疫情期间,由于房源库存严重不足,诸如博伊西、博兹曼和卡拉马祖等中小型城市的房价也经历了暴涨。
目前,美国面临高达600万套的住房短缺(Housing shortage)。作为近四十年来最重要的一项住房立法,该法案主要通过以下几个维度进行干预:
- 放宽联邦监管:简化审批流程,降低建设成本,从而使开发商能更快速、更廉价地推进住宅项目;
- 财政转移支付:向地方社区提供专项资金,用以修复和翻新现有的折旧房屋;
- 限制建制投资:对大型机构房东(Institutional landlords)购买单户住宅的规模设定上限,防止其垄断地方房源并推高租金。
行业专家指出,尽管这些政策有助于重塑供给并平抑房价,但成效显现仍需时日。由于部分建设项目从规划到动工需要数年时间,且高企的联邦基准利率依然将大量潜在买家排斥在市场之外,住房市场的回暖将是一个缓慢的过程。
Original English
In Washington, Congress has passed a landmark bipartisan bill aimed at boosting the supply of US homes and tackling the country's housing crisis. And President Trump is expected to sign it into law today. For a long time, the high cost of housing had been seen mostly as a big city issue. But during the pandemic, prices shot up around the country in places like Boise, Bosezeman, and Kalamazoo, partly due to a lack of inventory. Today, experts say the US has a shortage of up to 6 million homes. And the new bill, which is the most significant piece of housing legislation in almost four decades, will try and change that. It's coming at the problem from a couple of angles. It will loosen federal regulations, making it easier, faster, and cheaper to build. And it gives grants to communities hoping to repair existing housing. The bill is also designed to limit the reach of large institutional landlords who've bought up hundreds of thousands of single family homes. Now, the number of homes those investors can own will be capped. Overall, housing experts told the Times that the measures could help boost the US housing supply and bring down prices, but that it will take time. For one thing, it could be years before some construction projects actually break ground. Plus, high interest rates are still keeping a lot of potential buyers out of the market.联合国人道主义报告:地缘冲突与停火协议的破灭
联合国发布的一份独立调查委员会报告,指控以色列安全部队在以哈双方达成停火协议后的数月内,存在故意杀害巴勒斯坦儿童的行为。报告得出结论,这些杀戮行为并非孤立事件,而是构成了解构巴勒斯坦在加沙地带未来的整体系统性策略的一部分,其性质已等同于种族灭绝(Genocide)。
联合国及其他国际人道主义机构对于自去年十月达成的停火协议未能阻止暴力冲突表示了极大担忧。联合国儿童基金会(UNICEF)透露,自休战协议生效以来,平均每天都有一名巴勒斯坦儿童在冲突中丧生,这使得所谓的和平协议沦为一种“残酷而致命的幻觉”。
以色列官方对此报告予以了严厉驳斥,称其为“谎言与虚假的政治秀”,指责委员会意在孤立和诋毁以色列。以色列外交部同样发表声明批评该报告,指出其完全忽略了因哈马斯袭击而丧生的以色列儿童,存在严重的选择性失明。
Original English
Yesterday, the United Nations released a report accusing Israeli security forces of deliberately killing Palestinian children in the months after Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire. The report was compiled by an independent commission which concluded the killings were part of a strategy to destroy the future of Palestinians in Gaza and said that amounted to genocide. The findings underscore the increasing alarm from the UN and other humanitarian agencies that the ceasefire in October has failed to stop the violence. UNICEF has said that one Palestinian child has been killed on average every day since the start of the truce, calling the peace agreement a quote cruel and deadly illusion. Israeli officials dismissed the report as a lielist sham and accused the commission of trying to single out and vilify the country. Israel's foreign ministry also criticized it, saying it ignored the deaths of Israeli children who were killed by Hamas.硅谷AI成本反思:从“代币最大化”到“代币最小化”
在人工智能热潮初期,科技公司极力推动员工在日常工作中使用AI,以减少重复性劳动并提升工作效率。一些公司甚至设立了内部排行榜,展示哪些员工使用AI的频次最高。这催生了代币最大化(Token Maxing:盲目增加AI调用量以追求使用率)的现象。然而,随着AI的使用计费单据纷至沓来,企业高层开始面临巨大的财务压力。
由于OpenAI和Anthropic等大模型供应商是按照使用代币(Tokens:大语言模型处理文本的基本计量单位)的数量来向企业收费的,过度调用导致了运营成本的飙升。尤其是在能够长周期、无监督自主运行以编写完整软件程序的AI智能体(AI agents)普及后,软件工程师每月消耗的代币成本可高达数万美元。
近期,Uber透露其已提前耗尽了全年的AI项目预算;亚马逊(Amazon)和Meta等巨头也已悄然撤下了其内部的“代币最大化”排行榜。在短短几个月内,硅谷的流行词便从“代币最大化”转向了代币最小化(Token Minning:指在维持效果的前提下,精细化管理和缩减AI代币消耗)。这种转变折射出企业由于未能看到AI投资带来明确的投资回报率(Return on Investment),从而在应用策略上陷入了极大的不确定性。