AI如何化解能源危机:灵活性是关键
在亚利桑那州凤凰城一个酷热的日子里,当数百万台空调推高了电力负荷时,一群耗能巨大的人工智能(Artificial Intelligence: 模拟人类智能的计算机系统)服务器却逆势而行,提供了帮助。在一家甲骨文(Oracle)数据中心,这些AI计算机在三小时内将其功耗降低了25%,为当天的高峰需求提供了完美的时机支持。至关重要的是,先进的英伟达(Nvidia)芯片在此期间仍能满足其任务的严格性能要求,包括训练、微调和使用AI大型语言模型。
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On a blistering hot day in Phoenix, Arizona, as a million air conditioners drove up demand on the power grid, a cluster of energy-hungry artificial intelligence servers bucked the trend. They actually helped. For three hours, these AI computers at an Oracle data center dropped their power consumption by 25 percent to provide perfectly timed relief during that day's peak demand. And critically, the advanced Nvidia chips continued to meet the stringent performance requirements of their tasks. Training, fine tuning and using AI large language models.
我们Emerald AI团队促成了这次首创性的灵活AI计算演示。而且我们并非孤军奋战。谷歌(Google)也取得了令人瞩目的进展。将我们的技术推广到全国乃至全球,将有助于解决我们这个时代最大的挑战之一:为AI革命提供动力,同时推进一个更可靠、更经济、更清洁的电网。AI非但不会破坏电网,反而可能帮助拯救它。
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Our team at Emerald AI orchestrated this first-of-a-kind demonstration of flexible AI computing. And we're not alone. Google has also made impressive strides. Scaling up our technologies across the country and around the world could help solve one of the biggest challenges of our time: powering the AI revolution, while also advancing a more reliable, affordable and clean power grid. Far from undermining it, AI could actually help save the grid.
要理解这一点,我们需要重新构想为AI供电的挑战。因此,我重塑了自己的职业生涯。在过去15年里,我作为一名能源高管和美国首席清洁能源外交官,一直专注于建设更多的清洁能源。但能源供应只是等式的一半。因此,我创立了Emerald AI,专注于另一半——需求,帮助AI智能地使用能源,支持电网,并释放已经存在的、大量的闲置电力容量。
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To understand why, we need to reimagine the challenge of powering AI. And so I've reinvented my own career. For 15 years as an energy executive and as America's lead clean energy diplomat, I focused on building more clean energy. But energy supply is just half the equation. And so I founded Emerald AI to focus on the other half, demand, helping AI intelligently use energy, support grids and unlock massive stranded power capacity that already exists.
迫在眉睫的危机:AI与老旧电网的碰撞
没有这种能力,我们将面临一场迫在眉睫的危机,这是两个万亿美元级网络的历史性碰撞:一个快速增长的AI数据中心网络,以及一个完全无法应对如此新需求的、老化的电力网。各位,这无论从哪个方面看都不是好消息。
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Without this capability, we face an impending crisis, a historic collision between two multi-trillion dollar networks: the network of AI data centers that's rapidly growing, and an aging electricity grid, utterly unprepared for all this new demand. That's bad news, folks, for multiple reasons.
首先,美国在AI领域面临落后的风险。在弗吉尼亚州,这个世界上的数据中心之都,新数据中心接入电网可能需要长达七年时间。其次,社区的电力价格正在飙升。仅在2025年,当我们建设新电网和新发电厂时,数据中心的增长就导致俄亥俄州哥伦布市的家庭年均电力价格上涨了240美元。而这仅仅是开始。到2030年,数据中心将从占美国电力需求的4%激增至12%。这相当于给美国电网增加了另一个德国的电力需求。
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First, America risks falling behind in AI. In Virginia, the data-center capital of the world, it takes up to seven years to connect new data centers to the grid. Second, power prices are soaring for communities. Just in 2025, as we built new grids and new power plants, data center demand drove up the average annual household power price in Columbus, Ohio, by 240 dollars. And this is just the beginning. As data centers surge from four percent of US power demand today to 12 percent by 2030. That's It's like adding another Germany to the US power grid.
第三,化石燃料将为AI数据中心的激增提供动力,而这些数据中心目前需要可靠的电力供应。在美国,天然气为大部分AI增长提供动力,而像印度这样的国家将看到煤炭使用量增加,从而提高全球碳排放。
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And third, fossil fuels are set to power the boom in AI data centers, which require reliable power supplies today. In the United States, natural gas is powering most AI growth, and countries like India will see rising coal use increasing global carbon emissions.
灵活性:AI成为电网的盟友
但情况并非必须如此。电力最大的新用户实际上可能是电网最伟大的盟友。关键在于一个看似简单的东西:灵活性。这不同于效率或总体上使用更少的能源。相反,如果AI在何时使用能源方面稍微灵活一些,它就能消耗掉当今电网中大量原本闲置的电力。
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But it doesn't have to be this way. The biggest new user of electricity could actually be our grid's greatest ally. The key lies in something deceptively simple. Flexibility. That's distinct from efficiency or using less energy overall. Rather, if AI were just a little more flexible in when it uses energy, it could consume vast amounts of otherwise stranded power on today's grids.
想象一下我们的电力系统就像一条超级高速公路,但它每月只有几个小时面临高峰拥堵。想象一下凤凰城那个最热的夏日,空调需求达到顶峰。在那几天,电网可能会被这些庞大的新数据中心压垮,它们很快将消耗比佛蒙特州总用电量还多的能源。但大多数时候,发电厂的运行远低于其满负荷能力,输电线路承载的电力也少于其容量。就像那条高速公路一样。平均而言,全年有一半的电力系统容量未被使用。
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Think of our electric power system as a superhighway that faces peak rush hour just a few hours per month. Think of that hottest day of the summer in Phoenix, Arizona, when air conditioning demand peaks. On those days, grids risk being overwhelmed by these massive new data centers that may soon consume more than a gigawatt, or more energy than the state of Vermont consumes. But most of the time, power plants are running well below their full capacity, and transmission lines are carrying less power than they could. Just like that highway. On average, throughout the year, half of the power system's capacity goes unused.
这是亚利桑那州公共服务公司电网去年的负荷图,平均负荷为4吉瓦,仅在夏季一次接近9吉瓦。如果,在那些真正的电网压力高峰时段,AI数据中心能够动态地减少其功耗,并利用全年所有的备用容量呢?这就好比在高峰时段暂时将18轮卡车从路上移开,让剩余交通顺畅通行。
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Here's a graph of the Arizona public service utility's grid over the last year, which averaged four gigawatts of load and only approached nine gigawatts once in the summer. What if, during those peak rush-hour periods, when the grid is truly stressed, AI data centers could dynamically reduce their power consumption and take advantage otherwise of all that spare capacity throughout the year. It would be like briefly taking 18-wheelers off of that road to let the remaining traffic flow smoothly.
事实证明,如果AI数据中心只是适度灵活,一年中不到2%的时间里,每次削减需求约四分之一,仅持续几个小时,美国就能在现有电网中容纳多达100吉瓦的新数据中心。这意味着今天可以解锁价值四万亿美元的AI投资,而无需等待数年才能建成新基础设施。
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Well, it turns out that if AI data centers were just modestly flexible, just less than two percent of the year, trimming demand by a quarter, just a couple hours at a time, America could fit up to 100 gigawatts of new data centers on existing power grids across the country. That's four trillion dollars of AI investment unlocked today without waiting years for new infrastructure.
当然,随着数据中心、工厂和其他电力用户加入,美国将需要更多的能源来支持我们不断增长的经济。但通过使AI数据中心灵活化,我们可以审慎地扩展电网,为我们争取时间来建造清洁的核能或地热发电厂。
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Now, to be sure, America will need even more energy to power our growing economy as data centers, factories and other users of electricity join. But by making AI data centers flexible, we can prudently expand our grid and buy ourselves time to build clean nuclear or geothermal power plants.
更重要的是,通过让灵活的AI数据中心充当电网的巨大“减震器”,我们可以整合间歇性但廉价的太阳能和风能,从而降低AI的能源成本。
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And what's more, with flexible AI data centers acting as giant shock absorbers on the grid, we can integrate intermittent but cheap solar and wind power, driving down the cost of energy for AI.
Emerald Conductor:AI的AI
这就是我的工作。我和我的团队正在构建软件大脑,为AI数据中心提供这种关键的灵活性。这是AI的AI。我们称之为“Emerald Conductor”(翡翠指挥家)。它通过利用我们称之为“时空灵活性”(spatiotemporal flexibility)的特性来实现。这是一个简单概念的复杂术语。让我们分解一下。
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So that's what I do. My team and I are building the software brain to give AI data centers this crucial flexibility. It's an AI for AI. We call it the Emerald Conductor. It works by harnessing something we call spatiotemporal flexibility. That's a fancy term for a simple idea. Let's break it down.
首先是时间灵活性。并非所有AI工作都生而平等。一些工作负载,如训练或微调AI模型、进行深度研究或运行大规模科学模拟,被称为“可批量处理”(batchable)工作。它们极其重要,但不必在这一刻完成。软件可以在电网压力大时智能地暂停或短暂减慢这些工作负载,然后在有充足电力时再加速。
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First, temporal flexibility. Not all AI jobs are created equal. Some workloads, like training or fine-tuning an AI model, conducting deep research or running a massive scientific simulation are what we call “batchable.” They're incredibly important, but they don't have to be completed right this second. Software can intelligently pause or slow these workloads briefly, when the grid is stressed, and then speed them back up when there's plenty of power available.
然后是空间灵活性。想想你向生成式AI聊天机器人发出的查询。你无法暂停响应该查询的工作,但你可以以光速将其移动到全国各地。因此,即使我们在建设电力传输方面步履维艰,我们也可以利用“虚拟传输”(virtual transmission)——即纵横交错于全国乃至全球的光纤网络——将AI工作负载从一个电网紧张的城市数据中心(比如凤凰城一个炎热的日子)转移到一个电力充裕的地区(比如风力充沛的大平原)。AI工作负载得以完成,但电网在最需要时得到了喘息。而用户甚至不会注意到,因为在幕后,有一个AI在协调AI。数据中心成为智能、合作的电网伙伴。
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Then there's spatial flexibility. Think of your query to a generative AI chatbot. You can't pause the job of responding to that query, but you can move it across the country at the speed of light. So even as we struggle to build electric power transmission, we can take advantage of virtual transmission or the network of fiber optic cables that crisscrosses the country and the planet to move AI workloads from a data center in a city where the grid's currently strained, let's say, Phoenix on a hot day, to a data center in a region where there's presently abundant power, say, the wind-swept Great Plains. The AI workloads get done, but the grid gets a break right when it needs it most. And the user never even notices, because behind the scenes, there’s an AI orchestrating AI. Data centers become smart, cooperative partners to the power grid.
验证与挑战:合作是关键
我们知道它有效。还记得我告诉你的那个演示吗?它确实发生了。2025年5月,在亚利桑那州凤凰城,我们使用了一组256个GPU服务器,运行了混合的AI工作负载,有些高度灵活,有些完全不灵活,还有很多介于两者之间。在一个炎热的下午,我们的软件收到了一个信号,表明当地公用事业公司即将达到峰值负荷,因此Emerald Conductor在电网要求的整整三小时内,将AI计算功耗优雅地降低了25%。
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And we know it works. Remember that demo I told you about? It happened. In May 2025, in Phoenix, Arizona, we took a cluster of 256 GPU servers, and we ran a mix of AI workloads, some highly flexible, others entirely inflexible, and many in between. One hot afternoon, our software received a signal that the local utility was going to reach its peak demand, and so Emerald Conductor gracefully reduced the AI computational power load by 25 percent for the exact three hours requested by the grid.
右侧显示了AI作业的性能。最右侧,高度不灵活的任务完成了100%的性能,而灵活的任务则达到了其可接受阈值以上的性能。我们证明了AI数据中心可以在电网紧张时灵活调整,并在用户需要时全力冲刺。
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On the right hand side, you can see the performance of the AI jobs. The far right, the highly inflexible ones performed at 100 percent, and the flexible ones achieved a performance above their acceptable thresholds. We proved that AI data centers can flex when the grid is tight and sprint when users need them to.
但证明技术只是第一步。最困难的部分将是说服庞大的能源和AI行业进行合作,并改变他们的运营方式。一个多世纪以来,电力公用事业公司一直认为,当电网面临高峰时段时,用户无法简单地减少电力消耗。当然,在有限的情况下,公用事业公司可能会要求家庭调整恒温器,或要求大型工业负荷降低消耗,但这些干预措施通常微不足道。
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But proving the technology was just the first step. The hardest part will be to convince the enormous energy and AI industries to cooperate and to change the way that they operate. For over a century, electric power utilities have assumed that their users can't simply reduce their power consumption when the grid faces peak rush hour. Sure, in limited situations, a utility may request homes to adjust their thermostats or large industrial loads to dial down consumption, but these interventions are typically tiny and marginal.
然而,AI数据中心根本不同,它们具有灵活性的变革潜力。与需要聚合的微小家庭负荷相比,它们是巨大的能源消耗者。它们比大型制造工厂响应更快、更优雅,并且可以以光速移动其工作负载到全国各地,这是任何其他能源用户都无法做到的。
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But AI data centers are fundamentally different, with a transformative potential to be flexible. They're massive energy users compared with tiny household loads that need to be aggregated. They respond faster and more gracefully than large manufacturing facilities, and they can move their workloads around the country at the speed of light, which no other energy user can do.
未来展望:AI赋能清洁能源
这就是为什么我对汇集能源和技术行业的倡议感到如此兴奋,比如EPRI的DCFlex项目。在即将在美国和英国与National Grid进行的演示中,Emerald将展示AI工作负载如何跨区域灵活调整和移动,并证明像Conductor这样的软件可以与电池等现场能源设备协同工作,编排AI工作负载的交响乐,为电网提供更大的灵活性。
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That's why I'm so excited about initiatives that bring together the energy and technology industries, like EPRI's DCFlex. In upcoming demonstrations in the United States and with National Grid in the United Kingdom, Emerald will showcase how AI workloads can flex and move across regions, and will prove that software like Conductor can orchestrate a symphony of AI workloads in concert with on-site energy equipment like batteries, to deliver even more flexibility to power grids.
与我们的合作伙伴英伟达(Nvidia)一起,我们正在为下一代数据中心或“AI工厂”构建参考设计,使其具备电力灵活性,以便看到认证的公用事业公司能够更快地连接一个对电网友好的AI工厂。
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And with our partner Nvidia, we're building a reference design for next generation data centers or AI factories to be power flexible so that utilities that see the certification can more swiftly connect a grid-friendly AI factory.
那么,这一切将把我们带向何方?这意味着,我们不必等待数年进行电网升级,而是可以立即构建所需的所有AI基础设施,以增强我们的竞争优势。灵活的AI数据中心非但不会压垮电网,反而能在电网达到临界点之前提供缓解,避免轮流停电。它们不会推高电价,反而可能降低电价,因为灵活的AI数据中心能更有效地利用现有能源基础设施,推迟昂贵的升级。而且,AI飙升的能源需求不会仅仅为了化石燃料而增加,反而可能鼓励国内外电网增加更多清洁能源。
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So where does this all leave us? Well, it means rather than wait years for grid upgrades, we can build all the AI infrastructure we need right now to sharpen our competitive edge. And far from crashing the grid, flexible AI data centers can provide relief before the grid hits a breaking point, avoiding rolling blackouts. Rather than increasing power prices, they could actually go down as flexible AI data centers more effectively utilize the existing energy infrastructure, deferring expensive upgrades.
太阳能是当今地球上最便宜、增长最快的能源。想象一下,灵活的AI数据中心能够根据白天的太阳能峰值来调整其能源消耗,或者调整其负载,以便更好地将清洁能源整合到电网中。
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And rather than goose demand only for fossil fuels, AI's soaring energy needs could encourage more clean energy onto the grid at home and abroad. Solar today is the cheapest, fastest-growing power source on the planet. Imagine flexible AI data centers capable of ramping their energy consumption to match daytime solar peaks, or shifting their loads so that they better integrate clean energy onto the grid.
AI革命已经到来。我相信我们可以拥有这一切:破纪录的创新、大规模的AI投资,以及人人都能享有的充裕、经济、可靠和清洁的能源。一个用于灵活AI基础设施的AI,可能成为我们未来能源系统的关键。谢谢大家。(掌声)
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The AI revolution is here. And I believe we can have it all. Breakneck innovation, massive investments in AI and abundant, affordable, reliable and clean energy for all. An AI for flexible AI infrastructure could be a linchpin for our future energy system. Thank you. (Applause)