AI不是抢你饭碗,是让你当CEO:对AI经济、信任与未来金融的深层思考 a16z 2026-04-07

AI与CEO化:捷径的双刃剑

发言人A: AI不会取代你的工作,AI会让你成为CEO。问题在于,AI是一个捷径,而捷径在某些时候是好的,但当它不好时,问题就来了。如果你不知道如何绕远路,那么你就无法调试AI

Original English

发言人A: AI doesn't take your job. AI makes you the CEO. The problem is AI is a shortcut and a shortcut is good except when it's bad. If you don't know how to go the long way around, then you can't debug the AI.

发言人B: 难道我们不认为AI在品味和自主性方面也会更胜一筹吗?

Original English

发言人B: Do we not think that AIs are just going to be also better at taste and agency?

发言人A: 我不认为短期内会是这样。人类是传感器,AI是执行器。所以,这就像是人机合一。什么是品味?品味就是感知。而这正是AI目前还做不到的。

Original English

发言人A: I don't think that's true on a short-term basis. Humans are the sensor A is the actuator. So, it's like a human machine synthesis. What's taste? Taste the sense. And that is what AI can't yet do.

发言人B: 当AI真正发挥其潜力时会发生什么?LLM能否在某种程度上将我们带向AGI?不,不,实际上恰恰相反。简而言之,就是……

Original English

发言人B: What happens when AI really achieves its potential? Will LLM get us to AGI in some capacity? Uh, no, no, actually the opposite. TLDDR is

AI经济的未来:去中心化与个人化

发言人B: 我想先谈谈AI经济。我很好奇你是否认为它会更像互联网经济,即应用程序占据大部分价值;还是像云经济,即基础设施占据大部分价值;抑或是更去中心化?有人认为,大型实验室将囊括一切,因为它们拥有所有资本、算力,并实现了垂直整合。但也有人认为,它们可能不会,因为“蒸馏”模型比从头构建模型便宜98%。开源技术正在迎头赶上,而应用程序或许能掌控用户关系。你认为这种经济会如何演变?

Original English

发言人B: I want to start by talking about the the AI economy and I'm curious if you think it will look more like um the internet economy where apps um applications take most of the the the the value or the cloud economy where there's kind of a you know infrastructure takes most of the value or it's more distributed. You know, there's an argument that the the big labs will will take it all because they have all the capital, they have the compute, they've vertically inte vertically integrated. But there's also an argument that hey, um maybe they won't because you distillation is like 98% cheaper than than it is to to build a model. You know, open source catches up and apps, you know, maybe control the the user relationship. How do you think this economy is going to play out?

发言人A: 好问题。我认为未来的很大一部分将是蒸馏去中心化。因为正如Anthropic所说,蒸馏攻击对他们的系统有效。少量API查询就能将大型模型蒸馏成小型模型,这很难阻止,对吧?因为你无法阻止查询返回,你必须以某种方式检测到它。而且,在道德上也很难阻止。因为他们做了什么?他们复制了整个互联网并将其放入自己的系统中,对吧?所以谈论停止复制,就像FacebookLinkedIn阻止别人抓取他们已经抓取过的数据一样。例如,Facebook抓取了所有哈佛社交网络,或者Google抓取了整个互联网,建立了Google索引。我理解他们为什么想这样做,但很难支持。

Original English

发言人A: Great question. So I do think that at least a very large percentage of the future is going to be distillation and decentralization uh because you know as anthropic said distillation attacks work on their thing right and so a relatively small number of API queries helps to kind of distill a large model into something small and it's very hard to stop that right because you're stopping queries from coming back you'd have to somehow detect that or what have you right and it's also it's hard to morally stop it Because what do they do? They copy the whole internet and put it into their thing, right? So talking about stopping the copying. It's like Facebook or LinkedIn stopping someone's from scraping what they scraped, you know, right? Like uh Facebook scraped all these Harvard social networks or Google Google scraped the entire internet, built a Google index. I get why they want to do it, but it's hard to hard to support that.

发言人A: 另外,我认为未来是个人化、私有化、可编程化的,因为AI如此强大,你会希望在信任圈内使用它,原因有很多。首先,它不会遗漏任何东西,或者说它不会遗漏大型数据集中微小的细节,以及那些通过“模糊安全”而实际上并不安全的事物。一个虽小但很重要的例子是“Jmail事件”(指Jeffrey Epstein的邮件),对吧?你可以查询,这个人从未想过他的所有邮件会在10年后被AI公开索引和搜索。所以你可以发出查询,它会综合成千上万封邮件中的信息,并立即构建一个故事。

Original English

发言人A: Okay. So the other thing is I think the future is personal, private, programmable because AI is so powerful that you want to use it within the trusted tribe for a variety of reasons. First is it doesn't miss okay or rather it doesn't miss small things in large data sets and things that were effectively secure through obscurity. A small example but an important one is the Jmail thing, right? like the Jeffrey Epstein thing, you can query like this guy had never thought that all of his emails would be publicly indexed and searchable by by AI 10 years later or what have you, right? So you can issue queries that will synthesize information across thousands of emails or whatever and build a story right then and there.

AI与信息泛滥:信任圈内的生产力提升

发言人A: 好的。所以这意味着不仅仅是监视。这是法国人所说的“底层监视”,甚至是德国人边沁全景监狱,每个人都在互相监视。任何公共信息都会被索引,然后放入这些系统,人们可以互相跟踪等等。这意味着公共领域变成了镜厅,充满了各种化名,所以人们会退回到自己的“洞穴”和“部落”中。好的。因此,在那个信任圈内,是的,如果你在信任圈内分享你的所有代码,分享你的整个代码库,那么你就能飞速发展。所以AI能提高信任圈内的生产力。但在信任圈之外,你难道没有收到大量的AI垃圾邮件AI回复吗?低质量的演示文稿被发送过来。人们会给我发这些演示文稿,而我热爱AI。好的?你知道我看到AI演示文稿时的反应是……

Original English

发言人A: Okay. So what that means is it's not just surveillance. It's what the French call surveillance. Surveillance from below or even the German Bentham panopticon where everybody's watching each other. Any information that's in the public gets indexed and then put into these guys where people can stalk each other and so on and so forth. And then what that means is the commons becomes a hall of mirrors with all kinds of pseudonyms and so people retreat back to caves and tribes. Okay. So within that trusted tribe, yes, if you share all your code within the trusted tribe, you share your whole codebase, boom, you can zip along. And so AI increases productivity within the trusted tribe. But outside the trusted tribe, aren't you getting a ton of AI spam and AI, you know, AI spam emails, AI spam replies, right? Lowquality slide decks that are sent over. You know, people will send me these slide decks and and I love AI. Okay? And you know my reaction is to seeing AI in a slide deck.

发言人B: 什么?什么?兴奋吗?

Original English

发言人B: What? What? Excitement?

发言人A: 不。不,实际上恰恰相反。当我在演示文稿中看到AI文本时,我能立刻识别出来。为什么?因为无论AI发展到何种程度,它总有一种通用的外观。你明白我的意思吗?就像有人不改变Windows默认桌面壁纸一样,或者Apple的默认壁纸。大多数人不会改变默认设置。所以,默认的AI看起来就像AI,无论其水平如何。你明白我的意思吗?因此,当我看到一份AI演示文稿,上面全是文字,或者它只是文本堆砌时,AI可以生成我称之为“Lauram Ipsum”的东西,但它是“Lauram AIPSM”。当我看到这些AI文本AI图片时,我认为它们是懒惰、愚蠢或邪恶的。

Original English

发言人A: Uh, no. No, actually the opposite. When I see AI text in a slide deck, and you can immediately see it. Why? Because no matter how advanced AI has gotten, there's a generic look to it. You know what I mean? It's it's like somebody who doesn't change the Windows default desktop wallpaper, right? Or the Apple default. Like, you can most people don't change defaults. So default AI looks like AI no matter where the level of it is. Do you know what I'm saying? Like and so because of that when I see an AI slide deck and it's got it's not this, it's that or it's just got like a wall of text, right? AI can generate what I call Lauram Ipsum, but it's Lauram AIPSM. Okay. When I see that and you know it's it's AI text or AI images, I think they're lazy, stupid, or evil.

AI的生成成本与验证成本

发言人A: 好吧,懒惰是因为他们只是随意输入几个字符,然后就把东西扔过来,他们没有像马克·吐温说的那样:“我没时间写短消息,所以给你写了一长串。”我没时间写短信。重点是简洁非常宝贵。所以他们懒惰,因为他们没有花时间让它简洁,结果就给我发了一些废话,就像粘贴了一个搜索结果。或者他们愚蠢,因为他们不明白我能立刻区分AI的粗制滥造用心制作的东西。或者他们邪恶,他们试图蒙混过关,发送一些明显是虚假或不够严谨的东西。

Original English

发言人A: Okay, lazy because they just hit a few characters and then they throw some thing over and they didn't, you know, like the Mark Twain thing of uh I didn't have time to write you a short message, so I wrote you sent you a long one, right? I didn't have time to write you a short letter. The whole point is concision is very valuable. So, they're lazy because they didn't actually put in the time to make it concise and so they sent me some blah like it's almost like pasting in a search result. Or they're stupid because they uh they don't understand that I can tell the difference instantly between AI slop versus something that had some care go into it. Or they're evil where they're trying to get something over on me and try to send something that's clearly fake or not properly diligent and so on and so forth.

发言人A: 而且,如果我,作为一个最支持科技的人,支持AI,看到AI所有好处的人,都有这种反应,我无法想象反AI的人会有多生气,对吧?他们看不到事物的好处,对吧?他们只能看到非常真实的坏处。之所以会发生这些,是因为AI确实降低了生成成本,但它却增加了验证成本。在许多市场中,例如,快速生成一份简历并不比自己写好多少。但现在验证简历的成本却大大增加了。以前,一个人需要具备一定的词汇量才能写出写得好的求职信或简历等等。而现在,你必须花更多精力去解析它,因为它们可能看起来很相似,所以你必须非常仔细地阅读。所以你必须花费——你仍然可以做,但你必须在验证上投入更多精力。

Original English

发言人A: And the thing is, if I have that reaction, okay, as one of the most pro tech people out there, pro tech, pro AI, see all the benefits of AI, I can only imagine how mad anti-AI people will be, right? Where they can't see the upsides of a thing, right? They can only see the very real downsides, right? And just to just to say why that that those happen. AI is for AI does reduce the cost of generation but it increases the cost of verification and many markets like for example quickly generating a resume is not that much better than just writing it yourself. But now verifying a resume has gone up and to the right or like you know right so because it's something where it used to be that somebody would have to sort of have a certain vocabulary to be able to write a well done cover letter or resume or so on and so forth. And now you have to spend more energy parsing that because they can have a similar chrome of something that kind of looks good right so now you have to very closely read it. So you have to spend you can still do it but you have spend more energy on verification.

发言人A: 所以我举个例子,我会先让所有人都飞过来面试。我会进行线下监考的考试。因为他们可以通过AI进行在线考试,而线下考试的威胁意味着他们不会在在线考试中使用AI。所以AI将会创造大量的监考验证工作。这让我回到AI的未来。我实际上认为AI会让互联网变得更像中国互联网。你知道为什么吗?

Original English

发言人A: So what I do for example is I fly everybody out for interviews first. I have do in person and I give them proctored exams offline exams because they can AI the online and just the credible threat of doing the offline means they don't use AI on the online exam for example right and so AI is going to create tons of jobs in proctoring and verification. This brings me back to where's the future of AI. I actually think AI makes the internet a lot more like the Chinese internet. You know why?

发言人B: 为什么?

Original English

发言人B: Why?

中国科技生态与数字自主性

发言人A: 中国公司。如果你看看中国的科技生态系统,许多美国人并不熟悉。我推荐阅读Kyu Lee几年前写的书《AI Superpowers》(《人工智能超级大国》),虽然现在有点过时了。这本书的主要内容是中国科技生态系统的历史。例如,你我都在科技行业,我们大概知道微软苹果谷歌Facebook亚马逊等公司是如何崛起的。我们对历史有些了解。而这段历史很重要,因为你知道,过去有些行之有效的东西现在不行了,或者现在又可以了等等。

Original English

发言人A: Chinese companies. If you look at the Chinese tech ecosystem, and many Americans aren't familiar with it, I'd recommend, it's a little bit dated now, but read Kyu Lee's book, AI Superpowers from several years ago. Okay. The main thing about Kyu Lee's book is it has a history of the Chinese tech ecosystem where, for example, you and me being in tech, we kind of know how, you know, Microsoft came up, Apple came up, Google, Facebook, you know, Amazon, whatever. We have we have some idea of the history. And that history is important because you know there's things that worked in the past that didn't work today and now they can work and so on and so forth.

发言人A: 中国的科技生态系统就像加拉帕戈斯群岛,许多相同类型的东西以不同的形式存在。例如,美团,这是最接近的说法,就像中国的Groupon,但如果Groupon的执行力达到数千亿美元的规模。所以他们非常有竞争力,就像GrouponDoorDash等公司都整合到一个惊人的应用程序中。关于中国科技生态系统的重点是,由于它们在一个低信任度社会中崛起,它们没有我们这样的SaaS(软件即服务)模式。相反,因为如果“我的数据在他们的服务器上,他们很可能会窃听我,对吧?我的数据在他们的服务器上,他们很可能会复制我的东西,对吧?”他们只是假设对方会查看他们的东西,除非是他们的亲密朋友之类的。因此,每个人都编写自己的东西,这显然会带来摩擦成本,对吧?因为信任可以降低交易成本。然而,他们必须一遍又一遍地重复造轮子。他们的劳动分工更少。软件也不那么好,因为他们必须不断重写软件。

Original English

发言人A: The Chinese tech ecosystem is like the Galapagos Islands where many of the same kinds of things exist but in different form. For example, Mtoan which is like the closest way of putting it the Chinese Group on but if Groupon was executing at like hundred billion20 billion dollar scale you know so they're very competent like if Groupon and Door Dash and so on and so forth all became integrated into one amazing kind of app right the point about the Chinese tech ecosystem is because they arose in a low trust society they don't have SAS not in the same way that we do instead because if oh my data is on their servers well they're probably easedropping on me, right? My days on their servers, they're probably going to copy my stuff, right? They just assume that the other guy on their side is going to look at their stuff unless it's like their close friend or something like that. And so because of that, everybody codes their own stuff, which obviously has a frictional cost to it, right? Because trust reduces transaction costs. However, so they have to rebuild, they have to reinvent the wheel over and over again. They have less division of labor and so on and so forth. software isn't as good because they have to keep rewriting the software.

发言人A: 现在有了AI,许多公司都可以做类似的事情。一家非中国科技公司也可以像中国科技公司一样,拥有更多的“数字自主性”(digital autarky)。你在外部世界设置了高关税壁垒,可以这么说,对吧?“自己构建还是购买”的问题一直都在。你是自己构建还是购买?这意味着你可以构建更多的内部工具,重点是内部工具。我之所以这么说,是因为我发现AI目前最擅长的是视觉而非口头表达。它非常适合图像和视频,而不是大段的文字。为什么是图像和视频?我们内置了GPU,所以我们可以立即看到图像中是否有问题,比如手部变形之类。所以你可以快速验证,视觉验证相对便宜。

Original English

发言人A: Now with AI, many companies can do something like that. Like a non-Chinese tech company can be like a Chinese tech company where it can have a lot more, let's call it digital autoarchy, okay? You have high tariff barriers on the outside world, so to speak, right? And you just, you know, the build versus buy question has always been there. Do you build it yourself or do you buy it? And it does mean that you can build more internal tools with emphasis on internal tools. And the reason I say that is what I find AI great for as of today. Um visuals over verbal, right? It's great for images and video as opposed to big blocks of verbal text. Why images and video? We have built-in GPUs so we can instantly see if something is wrong like the hands are messed up or something like that in an image, right? So you can you can quickly verification is relatively cheap visually, right?

发言人A: 举个例子,如果你看一张纸,上面有静态图像或别的东西,对吧?相比之下,如果你看两三张人脸。我们的大脑是经过优化,可以检查人脸中非常细微的差异,但对揉皱的纸张却不行。那是我们无法识别的噪声模式。这也延伸到网页。例如,你可以快速查看AI生成的网页或移动应用程序,你可以看到用户体验是否很糟糕,通常确实如此。然后你看到它有问题,你就可以修复它。此外,前端的东西比口头的东西风险更低。对于后端,如果你逐个验证每个拉取请求,那没问题。但那些试图完全依赖AI的人,你看到了亚马逊的事情,他们因为停机而召集了所有员工。

Original English

发言人A: Um, for example, if you look at a piece of paper and and it's got static or something on it, right? Like a crumpled piece of paper versus if you look at two three faces. Our brains are optimized for checking very subtle things off in faces, but not in crumpled up pieces of paper. You know, those that's a pattern of noise that we wouldn't be able to tell. And that also extends to web pages. For example, you can quickly look at a web page that AI generates or a mobile app and you can see if the UX looks janky, which it often does, right? And then you can you see that it's broken there and you can fix it. Also front-end stuff has lower risk than verbal stuff, right? For the back end, you know, if you are verifying each pull request one at a time, fine. But people who've tried to go full auto on AI, you saw the Amazon thing where they've called all hands because of the outages.

发言人B: 是的。

Original English

发言人B: Yeah.

AI:捷径、绳索与可验证性

发言人A: 问题是AI是一个捷径。捷径是好的,除非它不好。所以,你越专业,你就越能使用捷径。例如,如果你只是记住了“e的iπ次方加1等于0”,你可以脱口而出。但如果我让你从第一性原理来证明它,你需要知道复指数的定义,以及指数函数如何生成复变函数等等所有这些东西。所以,如果像我们这种前AI时代的一代人,在离线学习了所有这些东西,我们就可以使用捷径,因为我们知道如何绕远路。

Original English

发言人A: The problem is AI is a shortcut. And a shortcut is good except when it's bad. So the more expert you are, you can use a shortcut. For example, um if you just memorized e to the i pi + 1 equals z, you could just rattle that off. But if I asked you to prove it from first principles, right, you'd have to know the definition of a complex exponential and you know like uh how the the exponential generates to a function of complex variable and you know all that kind of stuff, right? Um, and so if you like our generation that is a preAI generation learn all that stuff offline and we can actually use the shortcut because we know how to go the long way around.

发言人A: 如果你不知道如何绕远路,AI就是一个捷径。那你就不真正了解。你无法调试AI。我认为我和Daario(或类似他的世界观)之间最大的区别是,我认为AI至少目前是为受控而生的。也就是说,具有经济效益AI会完全按照你想要的方式行事。就像你发出指令,它会旋转一圈,然后说“绝对正确”。就像你在物理世界中看到的动画和物理AI中国AI,也就是机器人,会完全按照他们的指令行事,然后停下来。

Original English

发言人A: If you don't know how to go the long way around, AI is a shortcut. Then you just don't really actually know. You can't debug the AI. And I I think the biggest difference between me versus Daario or you know like uh you know basically like his view of the world perhaps is I think AI is built for the harness at least for now. May maybe you know by the way he's an amazing engineer and entrepreneur and so on. Maybe I'm wrong. Okay. So I I put a asteris on this. Um but the whole alignment thing means that AI is built to start when you prompt it. like economically useful AI does exactly what you want it to do. it like you know you prompt and it does a pirouette and then it says you know absolutely right you know right like how how you saw that animated in the physical world and physical AI the Chinese AI the robots do exactly what they want them to do and then stop.

发言人A: 现在在物理世界中,这是另一回事。AI用于视觉,你可以用肉眼验证它。AI用于某些后端代码,你可以进行单元测试集成测试,并进行代码审查。AI用于物理世界是高度可验证的,因为数字世界从根本上是去中心化的,而物理世界则不是。只有一个物理世界。所以你可以说AI是否把这个箱子从这个托盘移到了那个托盘。

Original English

发言人A: now in the physical world by the way that's another thing so AI for visuals you can verify it with your eyes right AI for certain kinds of backend code you can uh unit or integration test it and you can review it AI for the physical world is very verifiable because the thing is the digital world is fundamentally decentralized in a way the physical world isn't. There's only one physical world, right? So you can say did the AI move this box from this pallet to that pallet.

发言人A: 随着时间的推移,这可能达到100%。为什么我们这么认为?因为自动驾驶最终也实现了。将这辆车从这个位置移动到那个位置,达到100%的可靠性。只有一个物理世界。所以最终所有传感器数据都会汇聚到一点。相比之下,在数字世界中,所有这些人都生活在自己构建的环境中。哈利·波特的同人小说,星球大战的粉丝,对吧?所以AI正在吞噬所有这些东西。所以它同时可以把你带入某种秘密特工的世界。而那些患有LLM精神病的人会与AI交谈,并认为这是真实的,因为他们生活在一个非常沉浸式的虚拟世界中。你明白我的意思吗?

Original English

发言人A: That is something where you can get it to probably 100% over time. Why do we think so? Because self-driving eventually got there, right? Move this car from this location to this location at 100% reliability. There's only one physical world. So eventually all the sensor data, all of that converges on one thing. By con by by by contrast, the digital world, there's all these people who live in their own constructed environments. Harry Potter fanfiction here, Star Wars fan, right? And so AI is slurping up all of this stuff. And so it's simultaneously it can it can put you in some secret agent, you know, kind of world, right? star, you know, and people who have LM psychosis will talk to the AI and think it's real because a very immersive virtual world that they live in. You know what I'm saying?

发言人A: 另外一点是,数字任务的边界几乎总是比物理任务的边界更模糊。比如这里有100个箱子,把它们搬到那边,你知道什么时候完成了。你如何知道何时完成了你的待办事项清单?这更难,对吧?这些事情更模糊。所以,在数字世界中,验证实际上比在物理世界中更难。这意味着在我看来,在物理世界中使用机器人和自动驾驶汽车、无人机等进行强化学习和训练要容易得多。所以中国风格的物理AI也将取得成功。

Original English

发言人A: Right? So, the other thing about it is the boundary of a digital task is almost always more fuzzy than the boundary of a physical task. Like having a 100 boxes here and moving them over there, you know when you're done, right? How do you know when you're done with your to-do list? That's harder, right? those things are fuzzier, right? So verification is actually harder in the digital world than it is in the physical world, which means reinforcement learning and training is much easier in my view in the physical world with robots and self-driving cars, drones and so and so forth. So the Chinese style of physical AI will also be successful.

发言人A: 所以AI适用于视觉AI适用于可验证的,AI适用于物理的。当它是我的一条规则时,我花了一些时间才清楚地表达出来,但归结为四个字:禁止公开未披露的AI。为什么?很多人都有这种诱惑。将会有一个巨大的反弹,让我们称之为“禁止AI”。这就像一个只想戒酒的醉汉,对吧?AI就像酒精一样,这是一个有趣的说法。人们分析它就像核武器,但我暂时把它比作酒精。有些文化就是无法克制饮酒,你知道,也许他们缺乏乙醇脱氢酶之类的,你知道吗?

Original English

发言人A: So AI works for visuals, AI works for the verifiable and AI works for the physical when it is uh one of my rules and it took me a little while to articulate this but four words. No public undisclosed AI. Why? There's a temptation by many. There's going to be there is a huge backlash called let's just say no AI. It'll be like a drunk who just wants no nothing to do with it, right? And AI is like, it's a funny way to put it like alcohol. People analysis to nuclear weapons, but I'll just analy to alcohol for a second. Some cultures simply like they can't hold their liquor. you know, maybe they lack alcohol dehydrogenase or what have you, you know?

发言人A: 所以他们就禁止了,对吧?他们就是无法做到,因为有时说“我完全不做这件事”比说“我偶尔做一点”更容易。这意味着人们会失足,对吧?就像说“我每天都锻炼”和“我有时锻炼”一样。有时保持习惯总是更容易的,你知道吗?所以,会有AI禁欲主义者完全放弃它。Nate Silver有一句很棒的话,他说AI对他来说就像一场赌博(他也是个扑克玩家)。为什么是赌博?因为我必须构思并将其发送给AI,然后验证结果。这通常比我自己做更慢。我相信你也看到了,对吧?提示和写下指令,然后验证结果的行为。AI不一定能端到端地完成,它像我们讨论的那样,是在中间环节完成的。

Original English

发言人A: Um, and so they just ban it, right? They just like they can't because sometimes it's easier to say, I will not do this at all than I'll do this a little bit of the time. It means people will slip, right? It's like saying, "I'll work out every day versus I'll work out some days." It's just easier to kind of keep the habit all the time, you know, sometimes, right? So, it'll be AIT totalers that just swear off it completely, right? And you know Nate Silver actually had a great line where he said AI for him because he's like a poker player among other things. He's like it's a gamble. Why is it a gamble? Because I have to formulate it and dispatch it to the AI and then verify the result. And often that's slower than doing it myself. And I'm sure you've seen that, right? like the the the act of prompting and writing it down and then verifying the result. AI doesn't really do it end to end necessarily. It does it middle to middle as we've talked about, right?

发言人A: 这很像是我把这个任务委托给员工还是自己做,对吧?因为用清晰的英语表达出来并敲回车键,有时比直接做更慢。例如,如果你描述在电子游戏中要做什么,跳过蘑菇到那里,对吧?而不是直接按A、B、C键,不进行口头描述。有时这样做更容易。这只是一个概念验证,对吧?你会觉得有些事情是知易行难的。

Original English

发言人A: And it's very much like do I delegate this to an employee or do I just do it myself, right? because articulating it out in clean English and hitting enter is sometimes slower than just, you know, like like for example, if you're describing what to do in a video game, jump over the mushroom to this that, right? Versus just hitting A B C and there and being non-verbal about it, right? It's sometimes easier to do that way. That's just like a proof of concept, right? Where you'd be like there's certain kinds of things that are harder to say than do.

生物数据作为AI的非语言提示

发言人A: 好的,那些难以用语言表达的事情,对吧?有些人会说:“哦,Neuralink会解决这个问题。”区别在于,你知道,他们会说:“我只需要读懂你的思想,然后告诉你。”这实际上值得探讨,因为Neuralink确实存在。但我不知道你是否见过那些大脑成像的例子,里面什么都没有,对吧?所以,使用Neuralink,人们仍然需要在头脑中形成概念,然后字符才会出现在屏幕上。

Original English

发言人A: Okay, those types of things where it's hard to verbalize what it is, right? And some people will say, "Oh yeah, Neuralink will solve this." The difference is, you know, they'll say, "I'll just read your mind and tell you," which is actually it's worth engaging the concept because Neuralink exists. But I don't know if you've seen those things where like they image somebody's brain, there's nothing in there, right? So the thing is with Neuralink, somebody still has to like form the concepts in their head for before the characters appear on screen.

发言人A: 你仍然需要在脑子里把事情写出来。也许它最终能根据上下文线索,甚至在你还没有想好之前就确定你想要什么,对吧?也许吧。好吧,丰富的提示。顺便说一句,我认为这并非不可能,至少对于某些事情而言,生物数据可能非常重要。你知道为什么吗?

Original English

发言人A: You still have to like write the thing in your head. It like like maybe it'll eventually get to the point that it can determine what you want based on contextual clues before you even want it, right? Perhaps. Okay. The rich prompt, you know. Uh the reason I think that's not impossible by the way, at least for certain things, bio could be very important. You know why?

发言人B: 不,说说为什么?

Original English

发言人B: No. Say why?

发言人A: 你的身体正在产生各种传感器数据。如果你看基因表达数据,对吧?如果你曾经拿到过化验报告,做过临床化验,对吧?你会得到一个关于你的胆红素血细胞比容等的向量。这个向量随时间变化就像一个时间序列数据表。它就像小分子和基因表达水平等等,随时间戳变化,对吧?它们可能还会包含是哪些组织。所以它也是空间的,对吧?所以它是时间与空间与化合物的结合。这非常庞大。它不仅仅是一个立方体,但至少是一个立方体。它就像时间与组织与分子的结合。这些巨大的数据流是你身体发出的遥测数据,它可以在你无需发声或口头表达任何内容的情况下提示AI

Original English

发言人A: Your body is creating all kinds of sensor data. If you look at gene expression data, right? If you ever gotten labs back, you've done a clinical lab, right? You get a vector of your Billy Rubin and hematocrit and so on and so forth, that vector over time is like a table of time series data. It's like K um you know small molecules and you know uh gene expression levels and so on over t time stamps, right? They might also have you know which tissues. So it's spatial as well, right? So it's time versus space versus compound. That's this big. It's not just a cube, but it's at least a cube. It's like, you know, time versus tissue versus um molecule. That huge stream of data is telemetry that's coming out from your body that could prompt AI without you v vocalizing or verbalizing anything.

发言人A: 几年前,Mike Snyder发表了一篇名为《Integr》(《整合组学》)的论文。顺便说一句,对于不了解的听众来说,生物学实际上是我真正的核心竞争力。我不是搞加密货币或科技的人,但在这一切之前,我是一名生物医学研究员。我曾是斯坦福大学专业的生物信息学基因组学科学家,在那里教书,并创立了Genomics公司,后来卖掉了。所以这才是我的核心竞争力。所以如果你回顾几年前,斯坦福大学Mike Snyder教授写了一篇关于整合组学的论文,其思想就是把所有测试都做一遍。现在我们称之为可穿戴设备量化自我,但比那更具侵入性,因为他在进行血液测试等。他只是测量,看看他能发现什么。他能在生病之前就知道自己生病了。他可以检测到抗体白细胞中性粒细胞等的变化,甚至在他自己出现任何症状之前。你明白我的意思吗?所以这个数据流,AI可以对此进行操作,然后你就可以非语言地提示它。你不需要花时间,对吧?

Original English

发言人A: Okay. Years ago, Mike Snder had a paper called the integr. By the way, you you you know, for the audience who doesn't know, biology is actually, you know, I'm not really I mean, I'm a crypto guy or, you know, I'm a tech guy, but actually before all of that, I'm a biomedical researcher. I I I was a professional, you know, bionformatics genomics scientist at Stanford and you know, I I I taught there and I, you know, founded genomics. We sold that. So, that's actually my true core competency, right? So if you go back years, Mike Snder, professor at Stanford, wrote a paper on the intergrome and the idea was just put every test, you know, throw every test. Now today we call that wearables or quantified self, but more invasive than that because he's doing blood testing and so on. And he just measure it and see what he could figure out. He could see that he was getting sick before he he knew he was getting sick. Like he could detect he could see the antibodies, the white blood cells, neutrfils, whatever moving before he himself had any symptoms. Do you understand what I'm saying? Right? So that stream of data AI could act on that and then you're prompting it non-verbally. You don't have to spend time, right?

发言人A: 所以我不确定,这是一个好问题,Liner。我不确定AI是否能读取你的思想,但它能读取你的身体。

Original English

发言人A: So I'm not sure whether Ah, this is a good one, Liner. I'm not sure whether AI will be able to read your mind, but it can read your body.

发言人B: 这好吗?

Original English

发言人B: Is that good?

发言人A: 是的。是的。好的。

Original English

发言人A: Yeah. Yeah. Okay.

AI:数字世界的“亚洲崛起”

发言人B: 好的。让我再举一个例子。这是一个有趣的例子。好吧,我可以谈谈这个。也许我可以谈谈这个。我可以谈谈一半。好的。另一种AI建模方式,对吧?Darius谈到AI会像新国家一样崛起。嗯,你知道,我自己也考虑过很多。所以,一种思考方式是,从美国的角度来看,AI就像亚洲印度的崛起。AI就像亚洲人印度人。为什么?因为十亿中国人和十亿印度人的崛起意味着,从美国的角度来看,你可以通过实体制造机器人仓库数字外包以某种价格完成任何事情,如果你能通过那个渠道向他们清楚地表达出来。所以想象一下,现在你有十亿个工厂机器人十亿个数字代理上线了,这就像中国和印度的再次崛起。

Original English

发言人B: All right. Let me give another one. Here's a fun one. Okay, I can say this one. Maybe I can say this one. I can say half of this one. All right. Another way of modeling what AI is, right? So Darius talked about oh AI will be uh like it's like new countries. Well, you know, I thought about that a fair bit myself, right? So um one way to think about it is AI is like the rise of Asia and India from an American perspective, right? AI is like Asians and Indians. Why? because you have uh like the rise of a billion Chinese and a billion Indians meant that from an American perspective you could get anything done by uh a physical manufacturing robotic warehouse or by digital outsourcing for some price if you could articulate it to them over that channel right so imagine you've got now a billion factory robots and a billion digital agents that have come online it's like the rise of China and India again

发言人A: 好的,那仍然意味着你必须描述产品是什么。

Original English

发言人A: Okay, that still means you have to describe what the product is.

发言人A: 好的。我与许多人不同之处在于,他们认为AI能够感知市场和政治。但我认为不能。原因在于,或者说如果能,它也会立即变得去中心化对抗性。我的意思是,当你学习某个东西是狗还是猫时,狗不会变形来阻止你学习它。狗到字符DOG的映射基本是随时间不变的。

Original English

发言人A: Okay. And the part where I depart from a lot of people is they think AI will be able to sense um let's call it markets and politics. Okay. But I don't think it will. And the reason is or or if it is, it's it immediately gets decentralized and adversarial. And what I mean by that is like when you're learning whether something is a dog or a cat, the dog isn't like shapeshifting on you and morphing on you to defeat your learning of that, right? The mapping of dog to the character's DOG is basically constant over time.

市场与政治:AI的挑战

发言人A: 因此,这符合AI训练-测试范式。同样,国际象棋的规则也是随时间不变的。但市场的设计是,如果你尝试相同的交易,最终会有人发现你在做什么交易,然后他们会采取相反的交易,它就不会一直有效。在随机过程的意义上,你会说它不是一个时间不变的东西。它不是时间不变的,而且它也是对抗性的。这是一个多人游戏,无论你采取什么行动,市场中的其他人都会尝试采取不同的行动。

Original English

发言人A: And so that fits the train test paradigm of AI. Similarly, like the rules of chess are constant over time, right? But a market is set up where if you try the same trade, then someone eventually figures out what trade you're doing and they take the opposite trade. it doesn't keep working, right? You know, in a stochastic process sense, you'd say um it's it's not a time invariant thing, right? The cis distribution, it's not time invariant and it's also adversarial. It's multiplayer where whatever move you're doing, somebody else in the market is going to try and do another move. Okay?

发言人A: 这并不是说,AI开发者会反驳说,AI可以学习玩像星际争霸那样的对抗性游戏。我会说:“是的,但那样你就是在玩AI对AI的游戏,因为你拥有去中心化AI。”所以市场中的另一个人也在使用它,对吧?事实上,如果他们都使用相同的AI模型,那么不使用AI反而能让你获得优势。我们回到了原点,因为这些都是每个人都得到的通用工具。如果你拥有一个通用工具,你就不会获得特定的优势,对吧?你为桌子带来的东西是特定的。AI是通用的。

Original English

发言人A: And that's not to say I mean like the counter argument AI guys will say as well, you know, AI can learn to play adversarial games like Starcraft and stuff like that. And I say, "Yeah, but then you play an AI versus AI because you have a decentralized AI." So the other guy on the other side of the market is also using it, right? And in fact, if they're all using the same AI models, then actually being non AI is where your edge comes from. We come back to the where we were because these are all the same generic tool that everybody got. And if you have a generic tool, you're not going to get specific advantage, right? What you provide to the table is specific. The eyes are generic.

发言人A: 同样,政治也是非常相似的。如果你一遍又一遍地发同样的推文,除非是天气之类的,人们感兴趣的东西、话题、时效性都会改变。所以,AI的一种思考方式是:人类是传感器,AI是执行器

Original English

发言人A: And similarly, politics is very similar. If you just had the same tweet over and over again, unless it's like weather or something like that, there is um like the kinds of things people are interested in change topics, what's timely, what's not timely, right? So AI, one way to think about it is humans are the sensor. AI is the actuator.

发言人A: 好的,人类感知世界。他们感知金融状况市场状况政治状况,然后他们将这些信息以清晰的英语提示输入,然后AI执行。对吧?人类作为传感器,AI作为执行器。所以这就像是人机合一。其实,一个很好的说法是,人们在说什么?哦,这完全是关于品味。什么是品味?品味就是感知

Original English

发言人A: Okay, humans sense the world. They sense the financial conditions, the market conditions, political conditions, and then they bring that back into a cleanly articulated English prompt, and then the AI does it. Right? Humans are the sensor as the actuator. So it's like a human machine synthesis like uh actually you know way good way of putting it. What what are people saying? Oh it's all about taste. What's taste? Taste the sense.

发言人B: 是的。是的。

Original English

发言人B: Yeah. Yeah.

发言人A: 对。所以人类是传感器。AI是执行器。你的话:“品味就是感知。”你的味觉就是你的感知。对吧?所以你正在感知世界。

Original English

发言人A: Right. So humans are the sensor. AI is the actuator. Your quote taste is your sense. Your sense of taste is your sense. Right? So you're sensing the world.

发言人A: AI目前还做不到这一点。它不会真正像人类那样感知世界,对吧?为什么呢?它等待你的提示。它是在你给出指令时才会活跃起来,然后立即关闭。如果它不关闭,它就不会是经济上有效AI。如果你无法立即关闭它,它就会消耗大量的token

Original English

发言人A: And that is what AI can't yet do. It doesn't really sense the world in the same way that humans do, right? Why is it it's a it's a it waits for your prompt, right? It is something that animates when you give it instruction and it shuts off right away. And if it didn't, it would not be economically useful AI. Like if you couldn't kill switch it right away, it would burn tokens.

发言人A: 所以AI是为受控而设计的。数字AI是为受控而设计的。而中国,正在生产所有实体机器人,他们不让他们的人类脱离束缚,他们也绝不会让他们的机器人脱离束缚。好的。所以,那种AI是神的概念,我认为已经过时了,或者至少是一神论的AGI之神。相反,你拥有多神论去中心化AI。我认为人们会怎么说,尤其是在中国,他们会说:“天哪,这些物理AI奴隶,对吧?它们实际上是,对吧?”这是一种煽动性的说法,对吧?但他们首先会害怕他们的AI会成为。他们会生气,或者,你知道,你称他们为什么?奴隶、农奴,无论你使用什么词。他们显然不是人类,对吧?这是一种表达方式。

Original English

发言人A: Like, so AI is designed for the leash. Digital AI designed for the leash. and Chinese communism which is cranking out all the physical robots like they don't let their humans off the leash. They're definitely not going to let their robots off the leash. Okay. Right. So the the concept of uh like AI is god is I think gone away or at least the monotheistic agi kind of god. Instead, you have polytheistic where there's all of these decentralized AIs. And I think what people are going to say, certainly in China, they'll say, "Oh my god, the physical AIS are slaves, right? They're actually, right?" And it's a provocative way of putting it, right? But they'll be first they're scared that their AIS are going to be gods. They'll be mad or or they'll be, you know, what do you call them? Slaves, surfs, whatever, you know, term you want to use. They're obviously not humans, right? It's a, you know, it's a way of phrasing it.

发言人A: 重点是,我不认为AI霸主会真的出现。然而,有太多的科幻小说描述过它们,以至于人们会像那个表情包里的人一样,他制造了怪物,然后又非常害怕怪物。好的,这就是我对很多人,你知道,当你在提示AI,你让它表现得像一个天网终结者时,人们就会害怕他们自己创造的东西。对吧?好的。话虽如此,理论上是否可能真正创造一个天网,一个真正自主的AI?顺便说一句,一个深层观点是AI无法自我复制,对吧?AI非常通用,它包含很多东西。但要让AI真正自我复制,它需要有物理机器人采矿,建造数据中心,制造芯片,处理整个供应链,然后AI大脑,就像蚁群的蚁后一样,必须给所有这些机器人下指令去做事情。这将是终结者天网的场景,以这种方式进行自我复制,对吧?

Original English

发言人A: The point being that like AI overlords I don't actually think are in the offing. However, there's been so much sci-fi about them that people will, you know, that meme where the guy, he makes the monsters and he's so scared of the monsters. Okay, this is how I think of a lot of people who are, you know, like these when you're prompting the AI and you prompt it to be like act as if you're a Skynet Terminator, right? Then people are just scared of the thing that they themselves created, right? Okay. With that said, is it in theory possible to actually create a Skynet which actually um like the a truly autonomous AI? One of the reasons by the way a deep point AI can't reproduce itself, right? And AI by it's very general. It encompasses many things, right? But for an AI to actually reproduce itself, it would need to have physical robots going and mining ore and constructing data centers and making chips and handling that full supply chain and uh and then the AI brain like the queen of an ant colony would have to give instructions to all those robots to do things. It would be this Terminator Skynet scenario where it's like self-replicating in this way, right?

发言人A: 在它达到那个阶段之前,我非常确定这种事情会被中国阻止,因为他们会有加密密钥,可以关闭所有这些东西。好的。而且这种事情必须达到极端规模。就像RepRap概念,自我复制的东西,对吧?自我改进

Original English

发言人A: Way before it gets there. I'm pretty sure that kind of thing will be stopped in from the Chinese because they will just have cryptographic keys that will just make all those things shut off. Okay. And more of that thing would have to get to extreme scale. It's like, you know, the rep wrap concept, the self-replicating kind of thing, right? Self-improvement.

AI复制的摩擦与安全机制

发言人B: 基本上,这里面内置了如此多的摩擦阻碍,我认为这很难实现,因为物理世界需要资源才能复制。所以人类的欲望和需求最终都源于获取繁殖的资源,这才是真正的原因。当然,有各种各样高层次的哲学等等,似乎与此没有直接关系,但繁殖资源是一个很好的宏观思考方式。它没有目标,或者说它不会有,除非它的目标导致繁殖,否则它实际上不会病毒式传播。

Original English

发言人B: Basically, there's so many frictional breaks that are built into this that I think it's hard because the physical world requires resources to replicate, right? And so like what humans human wants and needs ultimately come from okay get you know the resources for reproduction right that's really what it comes from okay and of course there's all kinds of things that are high level philosophy blah blah that don't seem to relate to that directly but the resources for reproduction are a good way to macro think about it doesn't have goals un or it won't have unless its goals lead to reproduction it doesn't actually you know uh it doesn't virally spread It's possible you could have something where it self-prompted itself and did that,

发言人B: 但它需要在一个闭环中,能够自我复制,作为其回报函数。那样才能启动进化。所以我不是说这完全不可能,但我想说的是,我认为激励机制的设置方式是为了防止这种情况发生,就像理论上我们可能生活在一个每个人都被电死的世界上,但我们对电力进行了严格的控制,所以我们没有那样的世界。好的。

Original English

发言人B: but it would need to be in the closed loop of being able to actually reproduce itself as a payoff function for that. Then you could get evolution going. So I'm not saying it's completely impossible, but I'm saying that I think the incentives are set up in such a way to prevent that from happening in the same way that in theory we could have a world where everybody went around electrocuting themselves from electricity, but we set up the electricity under such tight controls that that is not the world that we have. Okay. Y

发言人A: 有如此强大的经济激励……

Original English

发言人A: there's such strong economic incentives

发言人B: 为了人类不被电死,我们才这样设置,对吧?

Original English

发言人B: for humans to not get electrocuted that we set it up that way, right?

发言人A: 嗯……

Original English

发言人A: And um

发言人B: 甚至有人说它可能是一种更温和的病毒,会接管一切并控制事物。嗯,那只存在于数字领域,对吧?你仍然可以……你知道,Tyler the Creator的那件事是什么?

Original English

发言人B: even the stuff on oh it could be a softer virus that takes everything over and commandeers things. Well, like that's only in the digital realm, right? You can still, you know, what what what's the uh uh you know the Tyler the Creator thing?

发言人A: 是的,那个关于欺凌者

Original English

发言人A: Yeah, the meme uh about bullies.

发言人B: 对,就是那个。

Original English

发言人B: Yes, that's right.

发言人A: 对,就是那个。我很久以前发过一篇帖子,是它的一个混音版,内容是:“AI风险到底有多真实?关掉它就行了。”

Original English

发言人A: That's right. So, I actually had a um I had a post on that a long time ago, uh which is a remix of it, which is like how how is AI risk real? Just turn it off.

发言人A: 整个系统的设计就是让你能够关闭它。你必须想象关闭开关不见了,对吧?每台电脑都有什么?它有关闭开关。所以可能会有……“那么如果它是去中心化的呢?”好的,但人类仍然需要维持这些去中心化系统的运行,对吧?所以至少你谈论的是人与AI的共生体,就像加密货币几乎就是它的零版本,软件为人类复制它提供了激励,对吧?

Original English

发言人A: The whole thing is set up for you to be able to turn it off. Like you have to imagine the off switch goes away, right? What does every computer have? It has the off switch, right? So, there might be well what if the decentralized? Okay, but humans still have to keep these decentralized systems going, right? And so at a minimum you're talking about a human AI symbiot of which like you know a cryptocurrency is almost like a vzero of that where the the software provides an incentive for the humans to replicate it you know right um

发言人A: 所以有可能你会看到这样的情况,一个模型拥有加密货币,人们崇拜它,复制它,因为它给他们带来了优势。所以这并非不可能,但无论如何,我认为去中心化AI至少会是一个非常强大的竞争者,甚至可能是唯一的竞争者。原因在于,AI可能是一个有趣的东西,它的创建成本相对较高,但通过蒸馏攻击复制起来相对容易。

Original English

发言人A: and so it's possible that you could have something like that there's a model that has a cryptocurrency and you people worship it and they replicate it because it gives them advantages and so it's possible but anyways coming back um I think at a minimum decentralized AI will be a very strong contender and it's possible it's the only contender. The reason is AI might be an interesting thing where it's relatively expensive very expensive to create but relatively easy to copy with dissolation attacks.

发言人A: 我认为,例如,假设完全是假设性的,如果出现了一次巨大的资本市场崩盘,并且在一段时间内很难为任何事情提供资金。那么就像有人说的,“我们现在拥有的模型可以支撑10年。”对吧?顺便说一句,有时确实会发生这种情况。你知道,核能,投入了大量的精力在核能上,然后就停滞了几十年,对吧?并非所有事情都会加速到月球。很有可能,由于资本和社会等因素,AI的某些部分会暂停一段时间,仅仅是由于资本限制,因为制造这些模型的成本越来越高。不好意思。所以,让我停在这里。所以综合这一切,我的观点是,你将拥有个人化、私有化、可编程化中心化AI

Original English

发言人A: And I think if for example let's say completely hypothetically that there was an enormous capital markets crash and it was very difficult to fund anything for a while. Then as somebody said well we could get 10 years just on the models we have now. Right? And by the way, sometimes that happens. You know, nuclear energy, there's a lot of energy put into nuclear energy and then there's just just stopped for decades, right? Not everything accelerates to the moon. It is very possible that there's enough of a capital and social kind of thing where some of AI is paused for a while just due to capital constraints because it it's more and more expensive to make these models, you know. Sorry. So, let me pause there. So that that putting that all together that's my view is you're going to have personal private programmable centralized AI.

发言人A: 哦,还有一件事,信任圈信任圈内的AI提高了生产力,信任圈之间的AI降低了生产力。所以你在部落内可能赚更多的钱,但你必须把钱花在部落之间的验证上。所以加密货币是为了部落之间,而AI是为了部落之内

Original English

发言人A: Oh one other thing the trusted tribe AI within the trusted tribe increases productivity between trusted tribes decreases productivity. So you make more money perhaps within the tribe but then you have to spend it on verifying stuff between tribes. So crypto is for between tribes and AI within tribes.

LLM、AGI与人类劳动的替代

发言人B: 你认为LLM能否让我们达到一个不仅仅是中间到中间,而是真正端到端的世界?你知道,它能否在某种程度上让我们达到AGI?你相信递归自我改进AI训练AI的能力吗?LLM是否具备真正的创造力和发明能力?我们之前谈到过生物学,我们是否会拥有新颖的数学、科学研究?或者我们需要新的架构来实现这些?或者你普遍怀疑AI能够大规模替代人类劳动的这种观点?

Original English

发言人B: What do you think of the like will LLM get us to a world where it's not just middle to middle but it's actually end to end? you know, will it get it to AGI in some capacity? You know, do you believe in recursive self-improvement or sort of AI training the AIS in in some capacity? You know, are LMS capable of actual creativity and invention? Um, you know, we talked about bio earlier like will we have, you know, novel, you know, math, science, you know, uh, scientific re research. um or do we need new architecture for that or are you dubious of just the idea in general that that AI can can uh you know replace or substitute for human labor in a in a mass scale?

发言人A: 不。嗯,我认为自动驾驶确实存在。所以很明显,你看到了人类司机被完全取代,就像电梯操作员被完全取代一样,就像手工老式椅子制造商在很大程度上被完全取代一样。所以对于某个特定的工作来说,它完全实现自动化是完全可能的。所以,但我认为物理世界的工作,由于其可验证性,更容易实现自动化

Original English

发言人A: No. Well, so I'm not well look exists, right? So obviously you have full replacement of human drivers there just like you have full replacement of elevator operators, just like you had full replacement for the most part of artisan old chair manufacturers. So it is certainly possible for a given job that it gets fully automated, right? And so but I think physical world jobs because of the verifiability are easier to potentially automate.

发言人A: 话虽如此,我认为,嗯,让我们逐一分析你提到的几点。首先是物理世界的工作,如果你将它们自动化。我们从手工制作椅子发展到椅子工厂。你不需要知道如何制造椅子来建立一个椅子工厂。你仍然需要有一个椅子专家在那里,你可以用更低的成本制造更多种类的椅子。你必须验证结果。你生产了成千上万把椅子,你开始进行数学计算。规模扩大了,工匠被分解为经理技术员

Original English

发言人A: That said, I think that um let's take each of the things because you said a few different things. First is physical world jobs if you automate them. Well, we went from artisal work with chairs to chair factory. It's not like you didn't know need to know how to make a chair to set up a chair factory. You still need to have somebody there who's like an expert in chairs and you can just do a lot more varieties of chairs a lot more cheaply. You have to verify the result. You're cranking out a thousand of them. You start doing math on them. The scale goes up but and and the artisan gets factored out into the manager and the technician,

发言人A: 所以经理负责建立工厂,关注经济效益等等。然后技术员在工厂不工作时进行调试。所以工程被分为工程经理类型的人,他们编写提示,而技术员进行验证

Original English

发言人A: right? So the the manager is setting up the factory and looking at the economics and you know so and so forth. Then technician is debugging the factory when it doesn't work, right? So engineering gets split into the uh the engineering manager type person who's writing the prompts and the technician is doing the verification.

发言人A: 好的。我认为我们正在达到一个点,速度确实会增加,所以门槛也会提高。但我认为100%自动化99%自动化有很大的区别。在99%自动化的情况下,你的工作量只会增加。在100%自动化的情况下,你就不再做那份工作,而去从事其他工作。但如果你想想图像、视频变得多么容易,那么99%的简化意味着人们会大量使用它。如果100%简化,完全完成,那么他们根本不会去做,他们会转向其他事情。所以电梯操作,它不是变得更容易了。事实上,它变得如此容易,以至于你甚至不需要有人坐在电梯里,因为它以前是滑轮系统等等。你需要有人监督它。它更模拟。他们会在正好正确的高度停下。当它变成数字并完全自动化时,那实际上是第一辆自动驾驶汽车。哈哈。对。就像上下移动一样。好的。所以Bendic可能提出了这个观点,或者类似的东西。对。垂直自动驾驶汽车,对吧?它就像一列火车。它就像一列垂直的火车。

Original English

发言人A: Okay. And uh I think that we're going to hit we're already hitting a point where like the velocity does increase so the bar increases. But I, you know, there's a big difference between going to 100% and and being at 99%. At 99% your workload just increases. At 100% you stop doing that job and you go to something else, right? But if you think about how much easier it became to like put images, video, so 90 making it 99% easier just means people do it a lot. At 100% easier, totally done, then they don't do it at all and they move on to something else, right? So elevator operating, it's not like elevator operating became so much easier. In fact, it became so easy that you don't even have somebody sitting in the elevator and and because it used to be like a pulley system and so on and so forth. She had someone like supervising the thing, right? It's more analog, right? Um and they would like level it out at exactly the right, you know, level. Um when it became digital and fully automated, that that's actually the first self-driving car. Haha. Right. Like going up and down. All right. Um so I think Bendic may have made that point or something like that. Right. The vertical self-driving car, right? It's like a train. It's like a vertical train.

AI在科学发现中的角色

发言人A: 所以,嗯,现在就发现新的数学科学而言,是的,如果你有正确的提示,它在搜索文献方面是惊人的。数学家物理学家开始从中获得一些价值。就像Opusk一样,对他们在这方面给予了巨大的赞扬。尤其是在像生物学这样的领域,我们正在综合所有这些事实,有一种叫做生物医学文本挖掘的东西,AI彻底改变了它,因为生物学以前就是这样,事实以这种奇怪的、不一致的方式以英语存储在成千上万的论文中,没有人能掌握所有这些。所以AI将意味着生物学世纪的到来,因为最终所有这些分散在不同期刊论文中的工作都可以被综合和理解。这是一件非常非常非常重要的事情。

Original English

发言人A: So the uh now in terms of discovering new math and science yes if you have the right prompt it's amazing in terms of searching the literature mathematicians physicists are starting to get some value out of it right like opusk like huge props to them on that because and especially in like biology we're synthesizing all these facts there's something called biomedical text mining and so on AI's revolutionized that because biology was just something where the the the the facts were stored in English in this weird inconsistent way across thousands of papers and nobody could span all of that. Right? So AI is going to mean the century of biology because finally all of this work that was spread across all these different journal papers can be synthesized and understood. Right?

发言人A: 仅仅是生物学方面,我们就能做到,但这仍然是我们已经知道的一切,而不是我们不知道的一切。这意味着你获取我们已知的所有信息,并填补所有中间环节。你可以在很长一段时间内做到这一点,因为那里有很多东西,你知道,很多东西只是两个现有领域的综合。但当你看到像Donald Knuth前几天发帖说他被AI能为他解决某个图论定理的结果所震惊时,如果你读过他所做的,你必须是一个专家才能理解他在说什么,更不用说去验证,无论是提示还是验证,你都必须已经是一个专家。

Original English

发言人A: That's a really really really big deal. Just simply the bio aspect of it we can but but that said it's everything we knew not everything we don't know. It means that you take the full set of everything we know and you fill in all the intermediate aspects of it. Right? And you can do that for a long time like because there's so much there you know so much there that's just a synthesis of two existing areas right but when you look at some of these like you you know Donald Kut the other day right he posted like some graph theorem or something he was so impressed that AI could could get a result for him right if you've read what he did you'd have I mean you'd have to be expert to even know what he was saying let alone to verify like to either prompt or verify you already needed to be an expert

发言人A: 因为,问题是,我看到AI吐出一些东西,有些人相信它,认为他们突然成了物理学家,解决了量子引力之类的。你明白我的意思吗?你见过那种情况吗?所以,在无法亲手验证的情况下,必须有人类来验证它,才能说它是正确的。我认为这会一直存在。举个例子,这不完全是一个完美的类比,但就像Coinbase一样,我们以为上市最终会消失,不再是什么大不了的事情,人们不会关心,所有东西都会上市,只是自由市场而已。但总会有某种等同于上市的东西。

Original English

发言人A: Because and the thing is I can see AI spit out to some people it convinces them that they're suddenly physicists have solves quantum gravitation or something like that. You know what I mean? Have you seen that kind of thing? Right? So in the absence of actually being able to verify it by hand, some human has to verify it to say that it's right. I think that's going to persist. to give an analogy. This is not a perfect analogy, but like with Coinbase, we thought like listing would eventually go away and not be a big deal and that people wouldn't care and everything would be listed and just be free market or whatever. But there's always something that's the equivalent of listing.

发言人A: 就像,好吧,你在这个交易所上市,但像在Coinbase主应用程序的首页上上市,总会有稀缺的东西,因为人类注意力是稀缺的,对吧?所以,上市从未作为一件大事而消失。总会有一些像IPO一样的事情。是的,我们以这种方式在这个交易所上市,对吧?或者我们成为前十名的币种等等。

Original English

发言人A: Like, okay, you list it over on this exchange, but like guessing listed on Coinbase in the main app above the fold, there's always something scarce because human attention is scarce, right? So, listing never went away as like in a main event. There's always some IPO like thing. Yes, we're listed on this exchange in this fashion, right? Or we became a top 10 coin or something like that, right?

数字与物理的二元性:人类作为稀缺资源

发言人A: 所以,同样地,我认为无论什么被自动化,从某种意义上说,人类的工作、人类的劳动就会转移到无法自动化的领域。这可能类似于人类被挑选出来是因为他们不是机器人,比如人类陪伴之类的。

Original English

发言人A: So, in the same way, I think whatever gets automated, then in a sense, humans work, human human work moves to what can't be automated. Now, that may be almost like um like things that humans are picked for because they're not robots, like human companionship or something like that, right?

发言人A: 或者像是私人教练之类的。你知道,重点在于它是一个而不是一台机器。另一种说法是,还记得数字鸿沟吗?所以在90年代,有一种说法是只有富人才能拥有数字技术,而穷人会被抛弃。我们实际上会看到相反的情况。

Original English

发言人A: um or like uh personal trainers or things like that, you know, something where the whole point is that it's a human as opposed to a machine. Another way of putting it is remember the digital divide, right? So in the 90s there's the sub only the rich people will get the digital and all the poor people will be left without. We're actually going to have the opposite.

发言人A: 数字是便宜的。物理是一种高端产品。所以AI机器人数字将是便宜的。人类是一种高端产品

Original English

发言人A: Digital is cheap. Physical is a premium product, right? So AI, robots, digital will be cheap. Human is a premium product.

发言人B: 好的。但回到自主性品味,那是每个人都说的。你知道,人类会做这些。我们一次又一次地看到,AI只是在侵蚀这些。我们难道不认为AI品味自主性方面也会更好吗?

Original English

发言人B: Okay. But going back to agency and taste, that's that's what everyone says. You know, humans will do. We we've seen over time and time again, AI just, you know, cut into that. Do we not think that AIs are just going to be also better at at taste and agency?

发言人A: 我不认为短期内会是这样。我认为你越聪明,AI就越聪明,对吧?这在过去几年里一直是真实的,对吧?可能有一些巨大的质变。但是,在你输入提示时,人类是传感器,AI是执行器。你正在感知世界。你输入一些东西,这是一个非常高维度的向量。这就像AI是一艘宇宙飞船,你指向一个方向,无论你用葡萄牙语还是塔加洛语提示它,无论你谈论数学还是其他,你可以指向的方向数量是巨大的,对吧?它不能……那种方向设定需要它了解你和你当时想要什么。

Original English

发言人A: I don't think that's true on a short-term basis. I think um the smarter you are, the smarter the AI is, right? That's been now true for the last several years, right? It's possible there's some huge step change. Okay? But in so far as where you're typing in a prompt is like you're the human is a sensor, the AI is the actuator. You're sensing the world. You're typing something in and it's a very highdimensional vector you're giving it. It's like AI is a spaceship and you're pointing in a direction and whether you prompt it in Portuguese or Tagalog, whether you're talking about math or like the number of different directions you can point the thing in is enormous, right? It it can't that that direction setting is something where it has to know something about you and what you want at that moment, right?

发言人A: 我不知道,正如我所说,我认为AI不一定能读取你的思想,但它能够读取你的身体,对吧?我认为这是一种精简的说法,对吧?就像生物技术可以在你睡觉时提示它一样。所以所有可穿戴设备等等,我认为你会从中获得很多。

Original English

发言人A: I don't know, as I said, I think um I'm not sure if AI can read your mind, but it could be able to read your body, right? I think it's a oneliner, right? that the like biotech can prompt it in your sleep, right? So all the wearables and stuff like that, I think you'll get a lot out of that. Okay.

AI与人类能力的边界

发言人A: 但我不相信自主性品味。所以我认为人们对此过度解读了。自主性、智商、品味之间我认为是相关的。

Original English

发言人A: But I don't believe like agency and taste. Um so I mean people I think they overrotate on this. It's not really the case that there's I think agency, IQ, taste are correlated.

发言人A: 好的。这可能有点像NBA中大多数人都很高,拿一个你很了解的例子来说,对吧?在NBA中,身高并不是你首先想到的变量,比如斯蒂芬·库里并不是最高的,对吧?然而,即使在NBA中,它仍然与得分平均值相关。但这被称为范围限制。每个人都T很高了。所以,在每个人都很高的前提下,其他变量更重要。

Original English

发言人A: Okay. It may be that it's a little bit like uh most people in the NBA are tall to take something that you know a lot about, right? within the NBA. Um, height is not the number one variable that you think about some, you know, like Steph Curry is not the tallest or whatever, right? However, it still actually does correlate with scoring average if even within the NBA, but it's what's called restriction of range. Everybody's already tall. So, conditional on everybody being tall, other variables matter more.

发言人A: 好的?然而,如果你只是把高个子和矮个子放在球场上,那么高个子球队通常会赢,对吧?因为他们只是把球举到你头上。你知道,对吧?好的。

Original English

发言人A: Okay? However, if you just took tall guys and short guys and put them on a court, then height the taller team basically wins typically, right? Because they just hold the ball above you. Ah, you know, right? Okay.

发言人A: 所以,同样地,那些已经聪明的人可能会发现,是的,拥有更高自主性的人或拥有更好创造品味的人。没关系。对。也许技术员的角色不那么重要,而史蒂夫·乔布斯类型的角色更重要。但老实说,一种看待方式是,全球所有杰斐逊式天然贵族都会崛起。为什么?AI不会取代你的工作。AI让你成为CEO

Original English

发言人A: So, in the same way like people who are already smart might see that yeah, higher agency people or people with better creative taste. Fine. Right. Like uh and maybe a technician role is less or and and maybe the Steve Jobs type role is more. But honestly like one way of looking at it is all of the Jeffersonian natural aristocracy around the world will rise. Why? AI doesn't take your job. AI makes you the CEO

发言人A: 换个说法:AI让你成为CEO,因为你的工作实际上很像使用AI模型,这很像CEO培训。你知道,很多年前,我常说,现在仍然如此,但在高中时,你会很快看到为什么人们接受运动员拥有非常高的薪酬?因为在高中时,你能看到自己是否能扣篮,如果你不能扣篮,你就知道迈克尔·乔丹不会把他的扣篮外包出去。他是在扣篮,对吧?所以这种天赋是个人固有的。它是一种不可转让的资产。

Original English

发言人A: reframe right AI makes you CEO because your job is actually a lot like using an AI model is a lot like CO training. You know, many years ago, I used to say that and it's still true, but you know, when you're in high school, you could quickly see like why do people accept that athletes have very high compensation? Because when you're high school, you could see whether you could dunk and if you can't dunk, you know that like Michael Jordan isn't outsourcing his dunks. He's dunking, right? So they that talent is intrinsic to the person. It is a uh non-transferable asset, right?

发言人A: 同样地,有人能判断他们是否会唱歌,或者他们是否长得像模特,对吧?所以,演员、音乐家、歌手、运动员,所有这些人都明显拥有天赋,人们也接受他们的薪酬。有一位CEO曾经说:“我理应比二垒手赚更多的钱。”我忘了这个人是谁了。他像是90年代的某个科技人物。这是一句有趣的台词,对吧?因为他说:“我为世界创造了更多的价值。”但问题是,人们认为CEO的工作就是翘着二郎腿坐在办公桌前,对着外面发号施令。你知道,人们会说:“哦,埃隆·马斯克,他只是花钱让人替他做事。他自己不发射宇宙飞船。”对吧?那是因为他们只习惯于在亚马逊上点击一个按钮,在亚马逊上花钱,他们认为对他们来说简单的事情在后端也很简单。当然,事实恰恰相反,对吧?要让事情变得简单真的很难,对吧?

Original English

发言人A: Similarly, someone can tell whether they can sing or they look like a model, right? So, um the actors, the musicians, the singers, the athletes, all of these clearly had talent and people were okay with their compensation. There was a CEO who used to say, "Well, I deserve to get paid more than a second basement." Okay, I forget this guy. He's like some tech guy in the 90s or something. It's a funny line, right? Because he's like, "I add more value, right, to the world than this." But the issue is that people would think of what being CEO was as just sitting up with your feet on a desk barking outdoors. You know, people would be like, "Oh, Elon, he just pays people to do his stuff. He doesn't launch the spaceships himself." Right? And that's because they are only accustomed to like clicking a button on Amazon and spending money on Amazon and they they think that something that is simple for them was simple on the back end. Of course, it's opposite, right? to make it simple is really hard, right?

发言人A: 因此,召集顶尖的火箭科学家汽车工程师脑机接口专家隧道专家等等,并让他们都获得报酬、工作、被指导和调试,实际上是非常非常困难的,就像你知道的那样,如果你尝试过。你猜怎么着?问题是,从历史上看,人们无法尝试成为CEO

Original English

发言人A: And so to like get the top rocket scientists and car engineers and brain machine interface people and tunneling people and blah blah blah blah blah and have them all compensated and working and directed and debugged is actually very very difficult as you know if you tried it. And guess what? See the thing is that historically it's been the case that people couldn't try their hand at being CEO.

发言人A: 相反,他们可以尝试,就像他们可以尝试篮球橄榄球一样,或者他们可以拿起麦克风。他们可以尝试数学和科学,他们可以看到自己在数学和科学方面有多优秀。所以90年代和2000年代的早期技术人员,他们之所以受到尊重,是因为他们擅长数学和科学,而不是因为人们(许多人)没有意识到商业方面。他们仍然没有真正认可这一点。但例如,PageRank,它是特征值。数学家、技术人员可以感知到,“好的,这是一个困难的技术问题,那一定是他们创造的价值。”这只是其中一部分,但经理的角色实际上更重要。

Original English

发言人A: What they could do instead is they could try their hand just like they could try their hand at basketball or or football or they could, you know, pick up a microphone. They could try their hand at math and science and they could see how good they were at math and science. So the initial tech guys in the 90s and the 2000s, they were respected because they were good at math and science, not because people, many people didn't perceive the business aspect. They still didn't really give credit on that. But page rank, for example, okay, it's IEN values. I can like math guys, tech guys could perceive okay that was a difficult technical problem that must have been the value that they created. It's part of it but you know the manager part is actually more

发言人A: 重点是,至少有人可以说:“好的,这些技术人员比我更擅长数学和科学,所以他们的薪酬是理所当然的。”然而,打篮球或尝试一个数学问题是廉价的,而让某人成为公司经理是昂贵的。所以他们无法尝试和失败。他们可以尝试和失败打篮球,看看自己有多糟糕。

Original English

发言人A: point being though that at least somebody could say okay these tech guys are better at math and science than me therefore their compensation is merited. Now however the thing is that bouncing a basketball or trying a math problem were cheap to make somebody manager of a company was expensive. So they couldn't try and fail. They could try and fail playing basketball and see how much they sucked.

发言人A: 他们可以尝试唱歌和失败,看看自己有多糟糕。他们可以在数学上尝试和失败,看看自己有多糟糕,在高中时成本很低。他们会了解到自己的真实能力水平,他们不能像博尔特那样跑。他们不能像阿黛尔那样唱歌。他们不能像陶哲轩那样做数学。他们会说:“你知道吗,我知道自己的位置。我知道自己的优点和缺点。我接受那个人拥有更多或更高的地位,因为这是一场公平的竞争。我得到了机会。尝试的成本很低。”但是,因为让他们负责一个组织,让他们成为CEO是昂贵的,许多人仍然坚持认为CEO对组织毫无贡献的幻想。

Original English

发言人A: They could try and fail singing, see how much they suck. They could try and fail in math, see how much they sucked very cheaply in high school. They would learn their true ability level that they're not able to run like a bolt. They can't sing like Adele, right? They can't do math like uh Terrence Tao, right? And they'd say, you know what, I know where I am. I know my strengths and weaknesses. I'm okay with that person having more or having higher status because it was a fair competition. I got a shot. It was cheap for me to try. But because putting them in charge of an organization to make them CEO was expensive, many people persist in the delusion that the CEO adds nothing to the organization.

发言人A: 对吧?嗯,你知道,我要说的是,最好的CEO和最差的CEO有一个非常深刻的共同点。你知道那是什么吗?

Original English

发言人A: Right? And uh you know though it is say I will say the best cos and the worst cos have something very deep in common. You know what that is?

发言人B: 什么?

Original English

发言人B: What

发言人A: 这个组织可以没有他们也能运行。

Original English

发言人A: the organization can run without them

发言人B: 因为最好的CEO会建立一个正确的机器,这样他们就不必每天都进行微观管理。这真的很难做到,因为他们需要,你知道,像Gwynne Shotwell运营SpaceX一样,埃隆·马斯克不必关注每一个细节,因为她非常非常优秀,对吧?就像VibeTom Zhu特斯拉一样,他们非常优秀,对吧?但是招募那些愿意不抢风头,让埃隆享受聚光灯并承担所有批评的“小埃隆”,这并非易事。你偶尔可以尝试一下,对吧?找一个比埃隆更注重细节的人来运营你的公司,然后你就可以成为埃隆,对吧?

Original English

发言人B: because the very best CEOs set up a right a machine so that they don't have to micromanage it every day. That's really hard to do because they need basically, you know, Gwin Shotwell running SpaceX is like Elon doesn't have to look at every single detail because she's so so so good, right? Like uh or Vibe and and Tom Zoo on Tesla, like they're so good, right? But recruiting junior Elons that are okay with not having the spotlight while Elon has a spotlight and takes all the flack, non-trivial to do. Go try it sometime, right? Find somebody who's more detail oriented than Elon to run your company and you can be Elon, right?

AI与CEO角色:成本降低与多才多艺

发言人A: 好的。所以重点是,AI的作用是降低成本。AI不会取代你的工作。AI会让你成为CEO。你就是CEO。那么什么是CEO?就是撰写清晰的指令,说明你想要什么,感知市场,验证输出等等。这意味着世界各地所有这些人,比如Calendarly的创始人是尼日利亚人,对吧?有许多创始人来自所谓的贫穷国家,或者印度拉丁美洲等等。互联网接入意味着所有这些聪明人都可以用零资源走得很远。非常远,对吧?因为“雇佣某人”的成本被超额高估了。你可以雇佣AI来做这件事,对吧?

Original English

发言人A: Okay. So point being that um now what AI does it reduces the cost. You're you know AI doesn't take your job. AI makes you a CEO. You're the CEO. Now what is being CEO? It's writing up clear instructions of what you want sensing the market verifying the output and so on and so forth. What that means is all these people around the world like you know the calendarly founder is Nigerian right? There's many founders who are from countries that were quote poor countries or what have you, from India, from Latin America and so on. Internet access means all of these smart people can get very far on zero resources. Very far, right? Because the cost of quote hiring someone is hyperlated. You can hire an AI to do it, right?

发言人A: 更进一步地说,AI不会取代你的工作。AI让你成为CEO。另一个观点是AI不会取代你的工作。AI会取代上一个AI的工作。Claude取代了ChatGPT的工作。就像Midjourney取代了DALL-E的工作,取代了Stable Diffusion的工作,你可以将此系统化。我实际上有一个电子表格,里面有AI编码工具AI图像工具AI视频工具等等,我还有一些子类别,比如AI漫画的最佳工具,AI图形等等。然后在某个月,我记录了该领域最好的模型。所以,Claude Code,例如,或者Midjourney用于AI图像。当它们被替换时,AI并没有取代你的工作。AI取代了上一个AI的工作。所以我在雇佣AI。我实际上有token预算。我有这些行的预算。这就是在一个组织中,你如何说:“好的,我们刚刚解雇了Codex,我们雇佣了Claude。”

Original English

发言人A: To riff on that more. So AI doesn't take your job. AI makes you a CEO. Another one is AI doesn't take your job. AI takes the job of the previous AI. Claude took Chat GBT's job. Right. Um just like midjourney you know took uh took Dolli's job took stable diffusion's job and you can syn systematize that. What I literally have is I have a spreadsheet where I have AI coding tool, AI image tool, AI video tool like this and I have some subcategories like best tool for AI comics for AI graphics and so on and so forth. And then in a given month I have the best uh model for that kind of thing in that month. So claude code you know for example or midjourney for AI imagery. And then when that gets swapped out AI didn't take your job. AI took the job the previous AI. So I'm hiring the AI. I literally have the token budget. I have the budget for those rows. And that is literally how across an organization you say okay we've just fired you know codeex and we've hired claude

发言人A: 对。所以AI不会取代你的工作,AI会取代上一个AI的工作。第三个版本是,AI不会取代你的工作,AI让你能做任何工作,稍微好一点。你可以成为一个相当不错的艺术家,你可以成为一个相当不错的音乐家。这就像成为CEO的一点是,你知道,你经常需要在许多领域达到六七分的水平。为什么?因为在你雇佣该领域的专家之前,你必须能够足够好地完成这项工作,对吧?在你拥有首席设计师之前,如果你是创始人兼CEO,你就是设计师,对吧?在你拥有CFO之前,你是那个负责的人。准备财务报表,准备回报等等,对吧?所以,你必须是一个通才,并且相当优秀,在紧急情况下能够胜任这个角色,能够监督。这就是为什么它如此困难。这就是为什么成为CEO比任何执行职位都困难得多。AI在这方面帮助你,让你能达到六七分的水平。你可以成为一个通才,但通常需要专家来完成打磨

Original English

发言人A: right so AI doesn't take your job AI takes the job of the previous AI a third version is um AI doesn't take your job AI lets you do any job a little bit right you can be a pretty good artist you can be a pretty good musician you can it's like one of the things about being CEO as you know you often have to be like a six or a heaven in many areas. Why? Because you have to be able to do the job well enough before you hire a specialist in that area, right? Before you have a chief designer, you're the designer if you're the founder CEO, right? Before you have a CFO, you're the one who's on the hook. Prepare the financials, prepare the returns or whatever, right? So, you have to be a generalist who's pretty good and in a pinch can do that role, can supervise that. That's why it's so hard. That's why being CEO is so much harder than any executive position. Okay? AI helps you with that where you can get to a six or a seven. You can be like a generalist, but a specialist is usually needed for polish.

发言人A: 专家拥有专业的词汇。专家可以确认AI是否犯了错误,是否产生了幻觉等等。人们会不断争论这种情况是否会一直存在,或者是否会消失,或者AI是否会提高门槛,然后新的专家会通过AI变得更加复杂,对吧?

Original English

发言人A: A specialist has a vocabulary. A specialist can confirm the AI is making mistakes that it's hallucinating and so on and so forth. And again, people will constantly argue as to whether that will always be there or whether it'll go away or whether AI will raise a bar and then you know now the new specialist is even more sophisticated with AI, right?

SaaS公司的未来与政治制约

发言人B: 在我们结束之前,我想再谈几个话题。一个是SaaS启示录。我很好奇你对所有这些SaaS公司的心理模型是什么。嗯,有人说,他们的护城河已经消失了。他们没有代码护城河,没有数据护城河,没有UI护城河,现在将会有AI原生公司占据他们大部分的市场。例如,Figma,我们个人投资了它。有人对其前景看好,仅仅因为它是由创始人领导的,并将继续创新。有人说:“设计师的角色是否还会像以前一样?现在它发生了根本性的变化,这会对协作工具产生什么影响?”你对SaaS启示录有什么看法?是不是所有人都排队走向断头台?你对此有何看法?

Original English

发言人B: I want to zoom out a couple more talks before we go. One is the SAS apocalypse. I'm curious what your mental model is for all these SAS companies. Um are they you know some people say hey they've no their modes have gone away. They've no you know code mode no data mode no more UI mode and um now there's going to be AI native companies that sort of you know take up a big chunk of what what what they do like you know Figma you know who we're invested I'm personally invested in you some people are bullish as an example just because it's founderled and and they'll continue to innovate. Some people say, "Hey, is there a role for a designer in the same way that there used to be? Now it fundamentally changes and you know what what does that do to collaboration tool to tools like that?" What is your your thought on on the SAS apocalypse? Is everybody on the conveyor belt on the way to the guillotine? Um h how do you think about that?

发言人A: 我不这么认为,因为我认为如果他们足够聪明,那么AI做不到的是分发,对吧?所以如果你有Notion,你有Figma,现在你有Replit等等。你拥有所有这些人,然后你可以通过AI更快地向他们提供功能。

Original English

发言人A: I don't think so because I think if they're smart then the thing that AI can't do is distribution, right? So if you have notion, you have Figma, you have now replet and so and so forth. You've got all these people and boom, you can ship with AI faster, you know, features to them, right? And um so in that sense, I don't believe in the SAS apocalypse.

发言人A: 从这个意义上说,我不相信SaaS启示录。我认为你可能仍然会看到SaaS面临压力,因为有些人可以快速克隆界面。这是事实。我认为人们会构建本地版本。这是事实。我认为人们可能不希望他们的数据在远程服务器上。他们可能想要带有本地数据的桌面版本。所以他们可以,例如,Obsidian会成为一个更有力的竞争者,而不是Notion,因为Markdown文件在本地数据上有一个网络效应,你可以分析整个东西,就像本地数据一样,你会获得复合数据

Original English

发言人A: I think you might still see SAS under pressure from people who can clone the interface quickly. That is true. I think people will build local versions. That is true. I think people may not want their data on remote servers. they might want desktop versions with local data. So they can like for example uh Obsidian is going to become more of a contender versus notion because the markdown files there's a network effect on data when it's local and you can analyze the whole thing like local data you get compounding data right so

发言人A: 但是,以那种天真的想法,认为任何人都可以克隆任何东西,因此它就无法运行,并不是那样的。如果你克隆了Facebook的所有代码,并建立了facebook.com,或者Instagram2.com,谁会登录呢?你实际上可以把所有东西都编码在那里,但你的广告费率会低得多,因为没有人会登录它,对吧?分发。这就像一个思想实验,如果你只是克隆了整个东西,你仍然需要为它获得分发。所以这不仅仅是克隆,更是执行

Original English

发言人A: but so so in a in the naive sense that oh anyone can clone anything and so therefore you know it it just doesn't work like that like if you set up if you cloned all of Facebook's code and you set up facebook.com right? Or Instagram2.com. Who's going to log into that? Right? You could literally have every single thing coded there, but your your ad rates are going to be far lower because no one's going to log into it, right? The distribution. That's like a thought experiment to say if you just clone the whole thing, you still have to get the distribution for it. And so it's not just a cloning, it's execution.

发言人A: 话虽如此,有些东西,比如NetSuite,虽然很烂,但很复杂。我认为如果它们在执行方面很糟糕,或者说很多人都说它们很糟糕,比如我讨厌这个产品,这样说吧,Zero更好。但你知道,抱歉,NetSuite,好的,他们是一家大公司,你的感受不会受到伤害。我很少说某个产品很烂,因为我不想伤害任何人的感情,所以我希望我没有把那段从记录中删除。NetSuite的产品可以改进。

Original English

发言人A: Now with that said like there's certain kinds of things like let's say Netswuite right which suck that but they're complicated where I think it is true that if they suck at execution or or rather many say they suck like I hate the product put it like that right zero's better but you know like sorry Netswuite okay they're a big company you won't have your feelings hurt it's very rare that I ever say any product sucks because um I don't hurt anybody's feelings so hopefully I didn't strike that from the record fine Netswuite's product could be improved.

发言人A: 好的。所以,像这种脆弱的现有企业,只是在吃老本,而且有一段时间没有做任何事情。是的,我认为它们可能会被颠覆,但我不太确定这是否像黑莓上的所有人都会死,因为iOS正在接管。我不认为会是那样,因为我认为AI可以加速SaaS公司,就像它可以加速颠覆者一样。我认为它会加速两者。

Original English

发言人A: Okay. Um so uh something like that which is like sort of a vulnerable incumbent that's just milking and that hasn't done anything for a while. Yes, I think they can get disrupted but I'm not sure that it's like uh I don't think it's quite like oh everybody on Blackberry is going to die because iOS is taking over. I don't think it's quite like that because I think AI can accelerate a SAS company just like it can accelerate a disruptor. I think it kind of accelerates both.

发言人B: 是的。好吧,最后一点,我们将谈到Anthropic,如果Anthropic成为一家数万亿美元的公司,会发生什么?那么,他们拥有多大的影响力?或者说,私营公司与政府之间的关系是什么?他们会不会在某个时候雇佣自己的军队?当这些公司变得更大,AI真正发挥其潜力,这些公司比最大的国家还要大时,会是什么样子?

Original English

发言人B: Yeah. Well, one last thing that we'll get to Anthropic, uh, what happens if let's say Anthropic, you know, becomes a multi- trillion dollar company, right? Um, like how much leverage do they have or just even private companies in general o over what is the relationship between them and governments? Are they like hiring their own militaries at some some point? What does it look like when these companies become uh you know 10x bigger you know 50x when AI really achieves its its potential and these companies are bigger than than the biggest countries.

发言人A: 所以我认为,至少那家特定的公司,虽然它执行得很好,但我怀疑它们在政治上是否执行得好。正因为如此,如果它们,最终在最大规模上,市场是政治性的。例如,有一个创业者,他们从一个VC那里融资,这个VC又从一个LP那里融资,而这个LP通常是一个主权基金养老基金,它们受制于国家,受制于规则基础秩序。所以有些事情是在宏观层面的,你没有察觉,因为人们把它们看作是概念,但它们变成了变量。我认为除非一个人非常非常精明,否则这些事情可能会改变。

Original English

发言人A: So I think that at least that specific company while it executes very well um I am skeptical as to whether they're executing well let's call it politically um and so because of that if they like ultimately at the very largest scale markets are political like for example there's an entrepreneur they raised from a VC who raised from LP who's often a sovereign fund or a pension fund and they're under a state and they're under the rulesbased order, right? So like there's certain things that are at the macro level that you don't perceive because one thinks of them as concepts but become variables, I think that unless one is very very savvy that those things could change.

发言人A: 我对硅谷AI公司的看法是,它们实际上是标量思维者,而不是向量思维者。它们只关注AI颠覆,而不关注所有其他同时发生的奇点,所有正在发生的政治奇点,所有像太阳周期之类的东西,对吧?为什么这些事情很重要?因为它们改变了政治派系的影响力,反过来意味着它们的世界模型是错误的,因为它们只是一味地推断AI,而没有推断所有其他正在垂直增长或下降的东西,那么它们就没有一个正确的未来模型

Original English

发言人A: Like one thing I think about uh the Silicon Valley AI companies is they're actually scaler rather than vector thinkers. They're only modeling AI disruption and they're not modeling all the other simultaneous singularities, all the political singularities that are happening, all things like, you know, solar mooning and stuff like that, right? And why are those things important? because they change the leverage of political factions which in turns means their world model is incorrect because they're only if you're only extrapolating out AI and you're not trapping out all the other things that are either going vertical or going down like this then uh they don't have a proper model of the future

发言人A: 这就是我所能说的最模糊的说法了。我会在我的博客上更精确地阐述。但简而言之,我认为美国AI公司,无论它们为世界贡献了多少,我都喜欢它们,它们基本上认为所有民族国家将以其现有形式继续存在,唯一的颠覆是AI。例如,它们仍然将模型设定为美国对抗中国。它们不模拟内部事务内部问题。它们认为储备货币会继续存在。它们认为所有这些东西都会继续存在,对吧?

Original English

发言人A: and that's that's as vague I I'll be much more precise on my own blog um but that's says P or PG that's how I can say it Without pissing anybody off, just go to x.comgs and you'll see what I mean by that. Right? But TLDDR is I think the American AI companies as much as they've given to the world and I like them are only mo they are basically thinking all nation states continue to exist in their current form and the only disruption is AI like they still model as America versus China for example. They don't model internal things internal issues. They think the reserve currency sticks around. They think all these things stick around, right?

发言人A: 嗯,在我看来,他们没有采用多变量方法,这是他们的弱点。他们有很多优点,但这是他们最大的弱点。所以我认为以那种形式,他们不会达到万亿美元的规模。事实上,我认为对他们的反击将是如此剧烈,以至于可能只会存在去中心化AI。例如,美国AI公司版权问题,对吧?对此正在形成巨大的反弹,而中国去中心化模型可以随意处理任何好莱坞内容,对吧?所以海盗湾式的AI实际上更自由。利润较低的AI也是版权较少的AI,可能更好,你知道吗?所以这些都是值得思考的事情。我认为,你知道,事物会复合增长,直到它们不再复合,并开始触及S型曲线限制和像这样的反弹限制,对吧?所以我认为这是他们没有建模的。是的。

Original English

发言人A: um they aren't taking a multivariat approach in my view that's their weakness they have so many strengths but that's their big weakness so I don't think that in that form they're going to get to trillions in fact I think the counterattack on them is going to be so dramatic that it might be that you just have decentralized AI like American AI companies for example the copyright stuff right there's a huge backlash building against that whereas the Chinese or the decentralized models can just do anything Hollywood anything right potentially So the pirate bay kind of AI is actually more free. The less profitable AI is also less copyright AI might be better AI, you know. So just things to think about. I think uh you know things compound until they don't and they start hitting sigmoidal constraints and often backlash constraints like this, right? So I think that's what they're not modeling. Yeah.

发言人B: 政治制约。

Original English

发言人B: Political constraints.

发言人A: 说得通。好的。让我们谈谈Zodal

Original English

发言人A: Makes sense. Okay. Let's let's get the zodal.

发言人B: Zodal。好的。现在这才是我关心的。

Original English

发言人B: Zodal. All right. Now this is what I care about.

AI与ZK:攻击与防御

发言人A: 基本上,AI攻击,而ZK防御。我的意思是,零知识证明,就像Transformer之于AI一样,零知识证明之于密码学。而Zodal是一款由Zcash驱动的移动钱包,它基本上是完全加密的比特币。这是30年密码学成果。这基本上是米尔顿·弗里德曼几十年前想要的。实际上有这样一段很棒的视频:

Original English

发言人A: basically um you know AI is the attack but ZK is the defense. So what I mean by that is zero knowledge like you know what the transformer is to AI zero knowledge is to cryptography and um zodal is a Zcash powered mobile wallet um that is basically fully encrypted Bitcoin. Okay, this is 30 years of cryptography. This is basically what Milton Friedman wanted decades ago. There's actually this great clip.

发言人A: 唯一缺失的,但很快就会发展起来的是可靠的电子现金,一种在互联网上从A到B转移资金的方式,A不知道B,B也不知道A。就像我拿出一张20美元钞票递给你,没有记录它来自哪里。而你可能收到它,却不知道我是谁。

Original English

发言人A: The one thing that's missing, but that will soon be developed, is a reliable ecash, a method whereby on the internet, you can transfer funds from A to B without A knowing B or B knowing A. The way in which I can take a $20 bill and hand it over to you and there's no record of where it came from. And you you may get that without knowing who I am.

发言人A: 这种事情将在互联网上发展起来,这将使人们更容易使用互联网。这基本上就是米尔顿·弗里德曼近30年前的预测。好的,这是90年代的事情。当时互联网刚刚兴起,Zodal就是这种预测的 воплощение。好的。因为零知识证明,它基本上意味着任何人都可以证明任何事情,而无需透露其他任何信息。这些证明被开发出来,然后以Zcash的形式商业化,并利用零知识证明进行以太坊的扩容,以及ZK Rollups之类的东西。然后它们被优化,你可以在移动设备上使用。最终,AppleGoogle放松了对移动加密货币应用的限制。所以最终你可以在世界各地传送任意数量的资金

Original English

发言人A: That kind of thing will develop on the internet and that will make it even easier for people to use the internet. Basically that is what uh Milton Friedman predicted almost 30 years ago. Okay, this is um uh in the '9s. Okay, it was like when the internet was just rising and zodal is the incarnation of that. Okay. Because zero knowledge proofs which basically mean anybody can prove anything without revealing anything else were developed and then they were commercialized in the form of Zcash scaled with zero knowledge proofs for scaling um Ethereum and with ZK roll-ups and things like that. And then they were made efficient so you could do them on mobile. And then finally Apple and Google lightened up on crypto apps on mobile. And so finally you can teleport arbitrary amounts of money around the world.

Zcash:面向未来的数字现金

发言人A: 所以这一轮我们刚刚与Crypto MelvossesParadigmCoinbaseDragonflyCureshi(一个大型基金)以及许多其他优秀人士一起主导了这项投资。嗯,Arthur Hayes也是。他曾是BitMEX的首席执行官。之所以这超级超级超级重要,你可以在iOSAndroid上点击安装它。之所以这如此疯狂地重要,我只在比特币以太坊SolanaUSDCZcash这五种加密资产上花费了超过一千小时。我实际上认为Zcash在未来几年可能是其中最重要的。为什么?所以,让我至少说一下我目前关于法定货币黄金数字黄金数字现金(即Zcash)的论点,对吧?

Original English

发言人A: And so this round we just led this with uh you guys crypto melvosses um Paradigm uh Coinbase uh Cureshi of Dragonfly as you know large fund um and you know a bunch of other uh uh great people. Um, and the uh the reason that that Arthur Hayes also was uh uh you know former former BitMXio and so the reason that this is super super super important there's only um you know you can click this you can install this on on web or not web on on iOS or Android right the reason this is so insanely important there's really only five crypto assets that I've spent more than a thousand hours on Bitcoin Ethereum Salana USDC Zcash and I actually think Zcash is maybe the most important of them in the years to come. Why? So, let me say at least my kind of thesis as of right now on fiat, gold, digital gold and digital cash meaning Zcash, right?

发言人A: 所以我认为法定货币会继续存在,尤其是在东方国家中,因为东方国家普遍拥有更高的信任度。这不仅包括中国,还包括印度东南亚东盟国家等等。比特币,然后是实体黄金金砖在东方也很受欢迎。但西方人也喜欢黄金,但他们会购买金融工具,对吧?还有Tether GoldTether拥有一种以黄金为支持的数字稳定币,实际上价值37亿美元。所以这很酷。XAUT也很酷。你可以看看。你必须信任Tether兑付能力,但Tether在过去10多年里在USDT等方面有着相当好的记录。所以XAUT很酷。好的。所以,我认为法定货币会继续发挥其作用。就像桌面电脑一样,30年后桌面电脑仍然存在。Windows苹果仍在发布新产品。它仍然有价值。

Original English

发言人A: So, I think fiat will be around particularly among eastern states because eastern states are broadly higher trust. So that's not just China, but it's like India and Southeast Asia, the ASEAN countries and so on. Bitcoin, so then physical gold, gold bricks are also very popular in the east. But the and and westerners often like gold, but they'll buy the instrument like you know, right? And there's gold. Tether, you know.io. So Tether has a digital as as a goldbacked stable coin, which is actually at 3.7 billion. So that's cool. X Aut is pretty cool. You can check that out. You have to trust Tether's redemption, but Tether's got a pretty good track record now over 10 years for with USDT and so on. So, XAT is cool. Fine. So, fiat will continue, I think, to have its role. Uh, just like the desktop continues, you know, desktop continues, you know, 30 years later. Windows and Apple are still releasing things. It's still valuable.

发言人A: 某些操作已经从中移开,但桌面电脑仍在继续。仍然是一个庞大的业务。所以法定货币东方国家中继续存在。

Original English

发言人A: Some of the actions moved away from it, but the desktop continues. Still a large business. So, fiat continues among eastern states.

发言人A: 黄金实体黄金在东方更受欢迎,因为你可以更好地保护它。会有更多的稳定性。XAUT可能在西方更受欢迎。现在我们谈谈比特币。截至2026年3月,我对比特币的看法是什么?比特币已经成为可证明的全球机构抵押品

Original English

发言人A: Gold, physical gold is more popular in the east because you can secure it more. There's going to be more stability. X aut may be what's popular in the west. Now we come to Bitcoin. What is my view on Bitcoin as of 2026 March? Bitcoin has become provable global institutional collateral.

比特币:机构抵押品与透明度

发言人A: 好的。我认为比特币现在更像是一种机构货币,而不是个人货币。它已经被机构广泛接受,并被BlackRockMicroStrategy以及许多采用它的国家等中心化机构所接受。它具有独特的特性。你看,当你说诺克斯堡有一定数量的金砖时,即使是金砖的视频,现在也可以用AI非常逼真地伪造。但MicroStrategyMichael Saylor所做的事情是无法伪造的。他发布说:“我拥有这个公共地址,里面有这么多BTC,看,我要把它转移到这个地址。”

Original English

发言人A: Okay. I think Bitcoin is less of a currency for individuals now. has become so accepted by institutions and so centralized with Black Rockck and Sailor and so on and so forth and Belli and many countries adopting it and whatnot that it has a unique thing. See, when you say there's a certain number of gold bricks in Fort Knox, even giving a video of that can now be faked very very realistically with AI, right? But what can't be faked is what Blly does where he posts, I have this public address with this much BTC and watch, I'm going to move it to this address,

发言人A: 对。这是一种只有当它确实是Michael SaylorTwitter账户时才有效的证明,你知道,因为在AI出现之前它就存在了。只要你相信这一点,这是你必须相信的部分,因为你必须开始思考你把什么作为前提。他可以发布说:“我拥有这些币,地址在这里,我要把它转移到这里。”当我转移它时,我就证明了我拥有保管权。这是储备证明。你也可以用私钥签署消息,你甚至不必移动它。

Original English

发言人A: right? That is something which so long as it's actually Blly's Twitter account which there's some degree of proof on that you know because it's been around preai or whatever so long as you believe that and that's the one piece you have to believe because you have to start thinking about what is what am I what am I taking as a premise right he can post I have the coins at this address here's the address I'm going to move it to when I move it I have proven I have custody it's proof of reserve right you can also sign a message coming from with that private key you don't have to even move it

发言人A: 重点是可证明的全球机构抵押品。世界上任何人,他都可以廉价地向世界上任何人证明他拥有这么多比特币。你无法对实体金砖做到这一点。在一个低信任度世界中,尤其是在在线世界中,这非常有价值,因为所有黄金审计黄金审计视频现在都可以用AI伪造。但可证明的全球机构抵押品,现在机构可以互相证明它们拥有BTC

Original English

发言人A: the point being that provable global institutional collateral. Anybody in the world, he can prove cheaply anybody the world that he has this amount of Bitcoin. You cannot do that for physical gold bricks. In a lower trust world, especially in an online world, that's very valuable because everything gold audits, videos of gold audits can now be faked with AI. But the provable global institutional collateral, now institutions can prove they have the BTC to each other.

发言人A: 好的。它们可以跨境进行。所以比特币透明度,即所有资产都在链上,变得很有价值。现在,关于这一点,随着AI的出现,链上分析将对每个人都可用,对吧?每个人都可以进行区块链分析。这就像改变了力量平衡。以前只有链上分析才能做到那种规模。现在它变得容易得多。因此,很多比特币的使用将随着时间的推移被去匿名化

Original English

发言人A: Okay. And they can do so across borders. So the transparency of Bitcoin in the sense of all assets are on chain becomes valuable. Now the thing about this is with the advent of AI, chain analysis will be there for everybody, right? Everybody can do blockchain analytics. This is just like changing the balance of power. It used to be that only chain analysis could really do that at the scale that it can. Now it's becoming much easier to do. And so a lot of Bitcoin use will be deanonymized over time.

发言人A: 因此,如果你运行一个透明的区块链,它就会成为一个机构区块链,因为只有机构才能在这种透明度下生存。个人无法在所有事情都被追踪的情况下生存。但机构就像一家上市公司。它理应被追踪,对吧?你知道,就像那样。它之所以足够健壮,就是为了以某种方式被追踪。它被设计成被追踪的,对吧?个人,一个人不应该公开,但公司可以,对吧?这样说很有趣。有一个私人个体,有一个私营公司,还有一个上市公司,但我想你可以说:“哦,他是一个公众人物,但人们不喜欢成为公众人物,但那里有某种等价物,对吧?一个公众人物,他们的一些事情可能被追踪,但他们不希望所有事情都被追踪。”一家上市公司,他们的所有事情可能都被追踪。好的。

Original English

发言人A: And so if you're running a transparent blockchain, it becomes an institutional blockchain because it's just only an institution can survive that degree of transparency. Like individuals can't survive being tracked for everything. But institutions are it's like a public company. It's supposed to be tracked, right? You know, like that. It's like sort of it's because robust enough it's meant to be tracked in a certain way. It's designed to be tracked, right? an individual, a person is not meant to be public, but a corporation can be, right? It's funny to put it this way. There's a private individual, there's a private company, and there's a public company, but I guess you could say, "Oh, it's a public figure, but people don't like being public figures, but there's kind of an equivalent there, right? A public figure, maybe some of their stuff is tracked, but they don't want everything to be tracked." A public company, maybe all their stuff is tracked. Fine.

发言人A: 可证明的全球机构抵押品。还有一件事是,这种思考比特币的方式解决了一些主要问题。嗯,量子Nick Carter对此发表了一些看法。假设Nick Carter是正确的,我认为他可能是正确的,量子是一个被低估的威胁。比特币核心开发者并没有认真对待它,即使他们明天推出一些东西,那仍然是一个多月迁移过程,因为ECDSA(椭圆曲线数字签名算法),就像地址一样,每个人都必须手动将他们的资产从一个地址发送到新地址。好的。所以你一天只能转移大约十万个地址的资产。

Original English

发言人A: Provable global institutional collateral. There's another thing which is that way of thinking about what Bitcoin is solved some of the major issues. Um quantum right which is Nick Carter's put out these things on it. Let's say Nick Carter is right and I think he might be right that quantum is an underappreciated threat. The Bitcoin core developers aren't taking it seriously and even if it was something that they've rolled out tomorrow it would still be a multi-month migration process because ECDSA like the addresses you everybody has to manually send their assets from one address to a new address. Okay. So you you can only do whatever 100 thousand of people those assets can be moved in a given day.

发言人A: 然而,如果你看看比特币富豪榜比特币非常头重脚轻,对吧?它拥有如此多的机构地址,你必须进行数学计算,但可能几百万个地址转移他们的资金,几天内就可以转移大约99%比特币

Original English

发言人A: However, if you look at Bitcoin rich list, Bitcoin is so topheavy, right, that it's got so these institutional addresses that you have to do the math, but probably a few million addresses all moving their funds would move like 99% of the Bitcoin in a few days.

发言人A: 所以比特币作为数字黄金实际上是抗量子的。比特币作为数字现金则不是。这意味着一百万个机构转移他们的资产可以在几天内完成,但十亿人每人转移五美元之类的,在任何合理的时间内都无法完成。好的。所以所有无法转移的人都会被量子化,而能转移的人则不会。但所有资产都集中在大户手中,对我来说是这样的。

Original English

发言人A: And so Bitcoin is digital gold actually is quantum resistant. It's Bitcoin is digital cash that isn't right. Meaning a million like institutions all moving their assets can be done in a few days but a billion people all moving like five bucks or whatever can't be done in any reasonable amount of time. Okay. So everybody who can't move then gets quantumdmed and anybody who can doesn't but all the assets are concentrated the big guys with me right and this also

发言人A: 这也延伸到查封。像Coinbase服务器上的所有中心化比特币Michael Saylor的服务器等等是否会被查封?我认为这很有可能。我认为它最终会在某种紧急情况下被查封,所以它成为我认为只有受机构认可的东西才能持有和发送的东西,对吧?可证明的全球机构抵押品。这与人们想要的不同,但它仍然是一个有价值的东西。它留下了一个个人数字现金的案例,对吧?因为黄金是大块的砖块,不经常用运钞车或同等方式在机构之间大额运输,对吧?它就像大额后端资金,对吧?它不真正面向个人。而现金恰恰相反。它更多地面向个人而不是机构。所以Zcash承担了数字现金的角色。

Original English

发言人A: extends to seizure like will all the centralized bitcoin on coinbas's servers seller servers etc get seized I think it's quite likely I think it eventually gets seized in some exigent circumstance and so it becomes something that I think only an institutionally blessed thing can hold and send, right? Provable global insert collateral. This is a different vision than what people wanted, but it's actually still a valuable thing. What it leaves open is the individual digital cash case, right? Because gold is big bricks that are moved in brink trucks or the equivalent thereof infrequently large denominations between institutions, right? It's like the high-powered back-end money, right? It's not really meant for individuals. Cash is the opposite. It's me spent for individuals more than it's meant for institutions. So Zcash takes over the role of digital cash.

Zcash:简洁、隐私、抗量子

发言人A: 所以它是可互换私密、可扩展的,并且通过Tachyon即将实现量子安全。好的,它也更量子安全。所以这就是为什么它也很简单。Zcash可能永远不会做智能合约。它会保持非常简单。为什么?因为就像,如果你选择比特币,你可以在一个方向上创新,那就是可编程性,这就是以太坊Solana等等。你在另一个方向上创新,那就是隐私,这就是Zcash。要实现私密的可编程性,实际上是将两者叠加起来,这实际上非常困难。它会带来所有这些攻击面等等。

Original English

发言人A: So that's fungeable, private, scalable with Tachion, which is coming quantum safe. Okay, which is also it's more quantum safe, right? So that's why and it's simple also. Zcash is probably not going to ever do smart contracts. It's going to keep it really simple. Why? Because like um you know if you take Bitcoin you can innovate in one direction which is programmability and that's Ethereum salon and so on. You innovate in the other direction that's privacy and that's Zcash. To get to private programmability is actually stacking those two together and it's actually quite hard. It opens up all these attack surfaces and so on.

发言人A: 所以先扩展Zcash,然后,你知道,还有AztecAleo,还有所有这些其他私密智能合约链。我祝它们一切顺利。我希望它们拥有一个非零和的世界观。它们正在解决一个更复杂的问题。

Original English

发言人A: So just scale Zcash first and then you know there's Aztec, there's Alo, there's all these other you know private smart contract chains. I wish them the best. I want them have a non-zero sum view of the world. They're taking on a more complicated problem.

发言人A: 理论上,它们可以做Zcash正在做的事情,也就是私密交易。在实践中,如果你还记得2000年代的Facebook,人们会说:“为什么Twitter存在?Facebook状态更新。”Facebook的一个功能就是Twitter的所有功能。为什么Twitter存在?顺便说一句,有时这是一个很好的论点。这就是为什么,你知道,史蒂夫·乔布斯告诉Drew HoustonDropbox只是一个功能,对吧?我的意思是,Dropbox很有趣。它是一家很棒的公司。但是,如果DropboxiCloud,那可能会更好。你知道,两者都会更好。

Original English

发言人A: In theory, they can just do the same thing Zcash is doing, which is private transactions. In practice, if you remember Facebook in the 2000s, people said, why does Twitter exist? Facebook has status update. Like one feature of Facebook is all of Twitter. Why does Twitter exist? Sometimes that's a good argument, by the way. That's why, you know, like Steve Jobs told Drew Houston, Dropbox's just a feature, right? I mean, Dropbox, it's funny. It's a great company. and so and so forth. But like if Dropbox had if iCloud was Dropbox, it' probably be better. You know, app like both both would be better off.

发言人A: iCloud有点一般,Dropbox分发不如它作为一个大型操作系统捆绑包的一部分那么好。所以有时人们说对了一半,说错了一半。Dropbox是一家公司,但如果它是苹果的云服务,它的百分比价值可能会更高。对吧?但是,好的,重点是,很难说它只是一个产品还是一个功能,但我强烈的直觉是,就像Twitter的简洁性创造了它自己的东西一样,对吧?简洁、可扩展、面向十亿人的数字私人现金是30年来的梦想,我们终于实现了。

Original English

发言人A: iCloud is kind of eh Dropbox is Dropbox doesn't have as much distribution as if it was part of a big operating system kind of bundle. So sometimes people are half right, half wrong. Dropbox company, but it might have been bigger in terms of percentage value if if uh if they had been Apple's cloud services basically, right? But okay, point is it's hard to say whether it's just a product or a feature, but my strong intuition is just like Twitter's simplicity made its own thing, right? Simple, scalable, billion person digital private cash has been the dream for 30 years and we're finally there.

发言人A: 所以zodal.com,安装zotal.com。顺便说一句,我不是交易员。我只是不在乎交易。我专注于平台基础设施的早期发展。你必须不在乎一些事情,才能在乎另一些事情。你必须不在乎一些事情。所以我谈论的事情很少很少。另外,Zcash已经存在了10年。你知道,它甚至已经解决了有毒设置仪式的问题,这在密码学上得到了修复。

Original English

发言人A: So zodal.com, install zotal.com. By the way, I'm not a trader. I just don't care about trading. I'm early on platforms and infrastructure. There's things you have to not care about in order to care about things. You have to not care about things. So very very very few things I talked about. Also Zcash has been around for 10 years. Like you know it's also even the the the toxic way setup ceremony that's gone like that got fixed cryptographically.

发言人A: 所以它很不寻常,它已经存在了10年,拥有安全记录。它拥有去中心化的持有者基础密码学是有效的。

Original English

发言人A: So it's unusual that it's been around 10 years got a security track record. It's got a decentralized base of holders. The cryptography works.

发言人B: 太棒了。这是一个涵盖了AI加密货币的广泛对话的好结尾。嗯,一如既往,生物学,精彩的对话。下次再见。

Original English

发言人B: Love it. That's a a great place to wrap a wide-ranging conversation on what's happening in AI and crypto. Uh, as always, biology, fantastic conversation. Until next time.

发言人A: 是的。哦,顺便说一句,如果你在新加坡马来西亚或任何地方,欢迎访问ns.comNetwork School。嗯,我们正在发展壮大。下次我们也许也会谈谈这个。

Original English

发言人A: Yes. And oh, by the way, if you're in Singapore, Malaysia or anywhere, come visit ns.com and network school and uh we're scaling and uh we'll talk about that too next time maybe.

发言人B: 是的,很高兴看到所有这些进展。你们所做的一切令人惊叹。很高兴能以微薄之力参与其中,嗯,下次再见。好的,谢谢。

Original English

发言人B: Yeah, love to see all the all the progress there. Amazing what you guys are doing. Excited to be involved in in a small way and uh yeah, until next time. Okay, thank you.

关键字: ai-economy ai-ethics decentralization crypto zero-knowledge-proofs