绿色能源突破与气候困境下的政治博弈 The Ezra Klein Show 2026-07-10

绿色能源的突破与气候困境

Host: 好消息是,绿色能源变得更好、更便宜的速度,比我们曾经最大胆的预期还要快。接下来的这句话,在几年前甚至是无法想象的:能源智库 Ember 在四月份发现,2025 年全球所有新增的电力需求,全部都是由绿色能源来满足的。这简直不可思议。但坏消息是,气候变化正在加速。我们正不断发现,气候系统比我们之前认为的更加脆弱,对碳排放也更加敏感。欧洲正处于一场罕见的热浪之中。全世界正面临着一场强劲的厄尔尼诺现象的直接威胁。

Original English

Host: Here's the good news. Green energy is getting better and cheaper faster than we had ever dared hope. This next sentence was unimaginable even a few years ago. The energy think tank Ember found in April that all all of the new electricity demand around the world in 2025 was met with green power. That is wild. But here is the bad news. Climate change is accelerating. We're discovering new ways the climate system is more fragile, more sensitive to emissions than we previously thought. Europe is in the midst of an extraordinary heat wave. The world is staring down the barrel of a powerful El Nino.

News Clip: 科学家表示,这可能会加剧成为一次超级厄尔尼诺,导致极端气温,并极大地改变全球天气模式。

Original English

News Clip: Scientists say it could intensify to a super El Nino causing extreme temperatures and dramatically shifting global weather patterns.

Host: 最近我们没怎么讨论气候变化。但这并不意味着它停止发生了。而且气候政治现在几乎处于完全混乱的状态。特朗普已经掏空了《通胀削减法案》。他的政府正在加速化石燃料的生产,并且在打压绿色能源,

Original English

Host: We are not talking that much about climate change lately. That doesn't mean it has stopped happening. And climate politics is in almost total disarray. Trump has gutted the Inflation Reduction Act. His administration is accelerating fossil fuel production, kneecapping green energy,

Donald Trump: 风能,我们会告诉你,它不起作用。除了毁掉我们的田地和山谷,杀光所有的鸟类,它还非常非常微弱,而且非常昂贵。

Original English

Donald Trump: wind, it doesn't work, we'll tell you. Aside from ruining our fields and our valleys and killing all the birds, having very being very weak and very expensive.

Host: 但可能性就在这里。这就是我感到乐观的一点。绿色技术的进步,使得一种新的气候政治成为可能。这种政治不再只谈论牺牲和预防灾难,而是将脱碳和绿色能源作为一个中转站,通向一个更好的未来。清洁能源的充裕,一种新能源财富的形式,以及左翼真正提供一个“更多更好”而不是“更少更糟”的未来的可能性。这在几年前还很难让人信服。但现在,我们不仅能想象它,我们还能看到它,触摸它,生活在其中。它已经到来了。那么,我们该如何谈论它?我们该如何让它实现?比尔·麦基本 (Bill McKibben) 是米德尔堡学院 (Middlebury College) 环境研究的舒曼杰出学者,气候行动组织 350.org 以及 Third Act 的创始人,后者致力于组织 60 岁以上的人群参与应对气候变化。他是《纽约客》的撰稿人。他撰写了名为《关键岁月》(The Crucial Years) 的 Substack 专栏,他最近的一本书是《太阳出来了:气候的最后机会和文明的新机会》(Here Comes the Sun, a Last Chance for the Climate and a Fresh Chance for Civilization)。像往常一样,我的邮箱是 esrainshow@nytimes.com。比尔·麦基本,欢迎回到节目。

Original English

Host: But here's the possibility. Here's my bit of optimism. The advances in green technology make a new climate politics possible. one that doesn't just talk about sacrifice and disaster prevention, but presents decarbonization and green energy as a way station on the path to somewhere that is better. Clean energy abundance, a new form of energetic wealth, of the possibility of the left actually offering a future of more and better, not less and worse. This was a hard case to make even a few years ago. But now we can not just imagine it, we can see it, touch it, live in it. It is here. So, how do we talk about it? How do we make it happen? Bill McKibben is a Schuman distinguished scholar of environmental studies at Mbury College, founder of 350.org, a climate action group, as well as third act, which is organizing people over 60 on climate change. He is a contributing writer at the New Yorker. He writes the substack, the crucial years, and his most recent book is Here Comes the Sun, a Last Chance for the Climate and a Fresh Chance for Civilization. As always, my email esrainshow@nytimes.com. Bill McKibben, welcome back to the show.

Bill McKibben: 很高兴再次和你一起做节目。

Original English

Bill McKibben: Very good to be back with you.

从全食超市到开市客:清洁能源的普及

Host: 所以,你有一个观点,人们现在仍然觉得清洁能源就像是全食超市 (Whole Foods) 的能源。它象征着美德,价格昂贵,有点像是在炫耀,但你却说它实际上已经变成了开市客 (Costco) 级别的能源。跟我说说这个吧。价格便宜,大量上架,随时可用。

Original English

Host: So, you have a line that people think of clean energy still like Whole Foods energy. It's virtuous, pricey, a bit of a flex when in fact you say it's become the Costco of energy. Tell me about that. cheap, available on the shelf in bulk, ready to go.

Bill McKibben: 那些我花了一辈子时间称之为太阳能和风能的“替代能源”的东西,现在已经是显而易见的、常识性的、最直接的发电方式了。在这十年的早些时候,我们跨过了某条无形的界线,利用太阳能和风能生产能源,变得比通过燃烧东西生产能源还要便宜。顺便说一句,这是一条很重要的界线。我是说,达尔文曾说过火和语言是标记我们这个物种的两样东西。但是现在,我们生活在一个最便宜的制造能源的方法,就是把一块玻璃板对准太阳的星球上。

Original English

Bill McKibben: Uh the stuff that we spent my whole lifetime calling alternative energy from the sun and the wind is now the obvious common sense straightforward way to produce power. Sometime earlier this decade, we passed some invisible line where it became cheaper to produce energy from the sun and the wind than from setting stuff on fire. That's a big line by the way. I mean Darwin said fire and language were the two things that marked our species. Uh but now we live on a planet where the cheapest way to make energy is to point a sheet of glass at the sun.

Host: 所以我想在这里做一个区分,因为有时候我们使用的数字可能会变来变去。我们使用能源的地方有很多。一般来说,太阳能会转化成电力,而电力也可以储存在电池里。

Original English

Host: So I want to create a distinction here because sometimes the numbers we use can shift back and forth. There are a lot of things we use energy for. M uh solar energy generally speaking becomes electricity which can also be stored in batteries.

Bill McKibben: 是的。

Original English

Bill McKibben: Yep.

Host: 我的意思是,我们制造氨气,我们有燃料,我们有航空燃料,水泥,等等。

Original English

Host: I mean we make ammonia, we have fuels, we have jet fuel, cement, etc.

Bill McKibben: 而在大多数情况下,对于那些东西你还不能利用太阳能和风能。有些事情我们知道该怎么解决,有些则不知道。我看到你变得……我们正在非常迅速地、非常迅速地向所有这些方向迈进。我的意思是,最简单的是电力,但是电力很快就必须取代,你知道的,用来开车的液体燃料。那是我们使用液体燃料最多的领域,还有你家地下室用来供暖的火炉。你不再需要它了,因为你可以装一个热泵,它更便宜,更高效,而且真的堪称一个奇迹。它能够利用电力吸收空气中的潜热,然后把它变成你想在家里得到的暖气或冷气。斯坦福大学的 Mark Jacobson 是这方面的权威,

Original English

Bill McKibben: And those things you cannot for the most part use of the sun and the wind for those are the things we know how to fix and the things we don't. I see you getting we're very quickly very quickly moving in all those directions too. I mean, the things that are easiest are uh are is electric power, but electric power is quickly going to have to supplant, you know, liquid fuel for driving cars. That's the biggest thing we use liquid fuel for and for running furnace in your basement. You don't need it anymore because you can stick in a heat pump and it's cheaper, more efficient, uh, and really a bit of a miracle. It's able to use electricity to take latent heat out of the air and turn it either to the heating or the cooling that you'd like in your house. Mark Jacobson at Stanford, who's kind of the been the authority on this,

Host: 在主流建模者中,对可再生能源最为乐观的一位,

Original English

Host: the most optimistic on renewables of the major modelers,

Bill McKibben: 他是主流建模者中最乐观的,也是在过去二十年里其预测最接近现实的人。他的观点非常清晰。我想他现在已经对 150 个国家的数据进行了建模,展示了你如何通过太阳能、风能和水能提供你所需的所有电力。

Original English

Bill McKibben: the most optimistic of the major modelers and the one whose predictions have come by far the closest to reality over the last two decades. He's very clear. He's modeled the data for I think now 150 countries showing how you can provide all the power you need from sun and wind and water.

电气化与澳大利亚的“乌托邦”

Host: 是的。对于电力而言。然后你必须使用其他一系列的新技术。如果说太阳能、风能和电池是发电能力的“三位一体”,那么至少对美国人来说,消费端的“三位一体”就是电动汽车/电动自行车、热泵,以及用来取代厨房里明火的电磁炉。我们曾经有一整套被称作是“难以减排的领域”,比如钢铁制造。在过去的几年里,人们已经开始研究如何用电力来解决这个问题。唯一似乎难以想象的是跨越大陆的喷气式飞机旅行。尽管中国人现在也在迅速尝试中短途的电池动力飞机。在我居住的佛蒙特州,我们的一家大型新公司 Beta Technologies,正在制造靠电力驱动的短途飞机。突然之间,真正出现了能源的充裕。所以,你知道的,我们并不缺能源,但我们缺时间。因为如果我们要在人类面临的最关键的问题——也就是地球的快速升温——上做出任何真正的改变,那么我们必须非常快地行动,要比经济力量和事物本身自然发展的速度快得多。所以,我认为在澳大利亚你看到了一些目前在美国几乎无法想象的事情,那里的太阳能革命已经发展到了听起来几乎像乌托邦一样的地步,这也是令人惊叹的地方之一。澳大利亚到底在发生什么?

Original English

Host: Yeah. For electricity and then you have to use the other suite of new technologies. If sun and wind and batteries are the trinity of sort of generating capacity, the trinity of consumption for Americans anyway are the EV/ the ebike, the heat pump and the induction cooktop to replace the open campfire in your kitchen. We used to have this whole set of things we called hard to abate sectors. Uh things like steel making. The last couple of years, people have started figuring out how to do this with electricity. The one thing that seems hard to imagine is transcontinental jet travel. Although the Chinese are now quickly playing around with uh mediumh hall battery powered jets. Up in Vermont where I live, one of our big new companies, Beta Technologies, is doing short hall aircraft that run on electricity. All of a sudden, there really is an abundance of energy. So, we're not short of energy, you know, but we are short of time. uh because if we're going to make any real difference in the single most critical question that humans face which is the rapid heating of the earth then we have to do this very fast faster than economic forces and things by themselves would produce. So, one of the the amazing places I think you see something happening that feels almost unimaginable in America right now is in Australia where the solar revolution has moved into something that almost sounds like utopic. What's happening in Australia?

Bill McKibben: 澳大利亚现在生产了大量的太阳能和风能,以至于在每天的中午,他们的电力都会供大于求。所以,他们正试图让人们把他们的一些用电需求转移到中午。他们采取的方式就是告诉澳大利亚人,中午 12 点到下午 3 点之间的电是免费的。所以,你可以想象澳大利亚人正忙着翻出洗碗机的用户手册,因为他们发现原来有办法让它在特定的时间运行,而我们以前从未研究过,因为我们不需要这样做。电动汽车也是一样的道理,而且他们还在购买储能电池,这些电池现在很便宜了,所以他们可以在下午把电池充满,然后供晚上家用。这真是个奇迹。我的意思是,第一个太阳能电池是在 1954 年由贝尔实验室发明的。在收听这个节目的听众里,有些人在 20 世纪 50 年代已经长大,用过投币电话。如果他们用过,他们就等同于资助了第一块太阳能电池的开发。现在,当我们制造出第一块太阳能电池的时候——顺便说一句,既然我们正坐在《纽约时报》的大楼里——在《纽约时报》头版关于第一块太阳能电池的报道旁边,紧挨着的就是关于脊髓灰质炎疫苗首次实地试验的报道。所以,这让你稍微感受到了一点历史中奇妙的巧合,你知道的,鉴于我们目前生活在试图抛弃清洁能源的奇迹,也试图抛弃疫苗奇迹的美国,但在那个时候,它是世界上最昂贵的能源。你唯一能把它用在的地方就是卫星。但是通过迭代,我们变得越来越好,这是一种在行动主义和工程技术之间的博弈,并最终在今天创造出了这种东西——在我们大洲的一部分地区,在一天当中的某些时段,它的价格实际上已经便宜到无法用电表来计量了。

Original English

Bill McKibben: Australia is now producing so much solar power uh and wind power that in the middle of the day they have more than they need. So, they're trying to get people to uh switch some of their demand to the middle of the day. And the way that they're doing it is saying to Australians, uh, you get free electricity between noon and 3. So, you can imagine Australians are busy digging out the owner's manual for their dishwasher because it turns out that there's a way to make it run at a particular time, which none of us have ever investigated because we haven't needed to. the same thing with the EV, but they're also out there buying storage batteries, which are now cheap, so they can fill them up in the afternoon and run the household at night. That's a miracle. I mean, the first solar cell was invented at Bell Labs in 1954. There are people listening to this program who were old enough in the 1950s to be putting dimes in payoneses. And if they did, they helped fund the development of the first solar cell. Now, when we built the first one, which by the way, since we're sitting here in the Times building next to the story of the first solar cell on the front page of the Times, directly next to it, it butts into a story uh about the first field trials of the polio vaccine. So that gives you some idea of the kind of strange twists of history that we're, you know, since we're currently living in America that's trying not only to get rid of the wonders of clean energy but also the wonders of vaccines, you know, but at the time this was the most expensive power in the world. The only thing you could use it for was satellites. But iteratively we've gotten better and better in a kind of dance between activism and engineering that finally by now has produced this thing that well has literally become for parts of the day on one of our continents too cheap to meter

Host: 行动主义、工程技术,而且我知道你也基本上把这个因素包含进去了,那就是国家政策。世界上很多国家的政府,德国是这方面的一个关键推动者;美国有时积极有时消极,但你知道,直到现在,也可以算得上是一个相当关键的推动者;当然还有中国,也投入了资金……

Original English

Host: activism engineering and and I know you're sort of including this in there but state policy a number of governments around the world Germany was a key mover here America has been on and off but you know until now pretty on a key mover here and China of course pumped money into

技术与政策的交集

Speaker A: 创造一个仅凭自身成本在经济上尚不可行的市场,在这个过程中,他们推动了所有这些技术的发展。所以现在,它自身在经济上越来越具备可行性了。正如我们谈到的,这就是能源界的 Costco。但我确实认为,那里有一个有趣的潜在现象值得思考,那就是我们经常把技术和政策看作是两个互不相干的领域,但其实并非如此,政策是可以创造技术的。让我们回顾一下 20 世纪 70 年代那个错失的巨大机遇,当时吉米·卡特(Jimmy Carter)面临着石油危机,并且初步了解到化石燃料对气候造成的一些影响,于是决定太阳能是出路。众所周知,他在白宫屋顶上安装了太阳能电池板。但他在发表演讲时,有些悲观又具有预言性地(事实证明也是如此)说道:在一代人之后,这种太阳能加热器要么会成为一件奇闻、一件博物馆里的展品、一个关于未被选择的道路的例子,要么它就能成为美国人民所进行的最伟大、最激动人心的冒险中,那小小的一部分。

Original English

Speaker A: creating a market for something that was not yet economically feasible just on its own cost and in doing that they pulled forward all this technology so now it is increasingly economically feasible on its own it's you know she as we're talking about is Costco of energy but but I do think there's an interesting underlying um thing worth thinking about there which is that we often treat technology and policy as separate spheres from each other but they're not policy can create technology so let's go back to the great missed opportunity which was the 1970s Jimmy Carter facing an oil crisis and with the first intimations of some of the climate effects of fossil fuel uh decides that solar is the way out uh he puts solar panels famously on the White House, but he goes to give a speech where he says uh prophetically, sadly, as it turns out, a generation from now, this solar heater can either be a curiosity, a museum piece, an example of a road not taken, or it can be just a small part of one of the greatest and most exciting adventures. ever undertaken by the American people.

Speaker B: 他确实是这么说的。

Original English

Speaker B: He actually says that

Speaker A: 他投入了人们认为足以支持研发的资金,使得美国能够……

Original English

Speaker A: he puts money sufficient people thought to power the R&D such that America would have

Speaker B: 我们所使用能源的 20% 都来自太阳。

Original English

Speaker B: 20% of all the energy we use from the sun.

Speaker A: 如果当时真的做到了,我们就会生活在一个不同的星球上,一个更凉爽的星球上。但事实并非如此,显然,罗纳德·里根(Ronald Reagan)拆掉了白宫的太阳能电池板。更重要的是,他从联邦预算中削减了那笔资金,让我们走上了不断钻探石油的道路,这也正是导致我们今天陷入这种局面的原因。

Original English

Speaker A: Had that happened, we would live on a different planet, a cooler one. Uh instead, of course, Ronald Reagan ripped the solar panels off the White House. More importantly, he ripped that money out of the federal budget and committed us to the project of evermore drilling, which is what's landed us where we are now.

加州:向可再生能源的转型

Speaker B: 那么,让我们来讨论一下人们对此产生的一些异议或担忧吧。

Original English

Speaker B: So, let's talk through some of the objections or concerns people have here.

Speaker A: 澳大利亚,阳光充足,非常温暖。

Original English

Speaker A: Australia, lot of sun, very warm.

Speaker B: 半个美国,也就是有 1.8 亿人生活在与澳大利亚相近的纬度上。但这至少能让你看到一些希望。加州是美国最彻底地致力于建设可再生能源的地方。在过去的两年里,他们越过了一个真正的转折点。现在,加州的大多数日子里,他们生产的超过 100% 的电力在一天中的很长一段时间内都来自清洁能源。当夜幕降临“黄金之州”时,现在电网最大的供应来源往往是那些在下午吸收了多余阳光的电池。归根结底就是,加州作为世界第四大经济体,现在用于发电的天然气比三年前减少了 60%。这是一个非常大的转变。这里有一个数字,或者说一个对比,我觉得非常生动,那就是加州在过去(我记得是三年里)增加的电池电力和储能,相当于建造了 12 座新的核电站。如果加州建了 12 座核电站,我们会……

Original English

Speaker B: Half of America, 180 million people live close to the same latitude as Australia. But here's something that will at least give you some sense of possibility. California is the place in the US that committed most thoroughly to building out renewable energy. Sometime in the last 2 years, they've passed a real tipping point. Most days now in California, they produce more than 100% of their electricity for long stretches of the day from clean energy. When night falls on the Golden State, uh, often now the biggest source of supply to the grid are batteries that have spent the afternoon soaking up excess sunshine. The bottom line is that California, fourth largest economy in the world, is using 60% less natural gas to produce electricity than they were 3 years ago. That's a very big shift. a number here that I or a comparison here I thought was very vivid which is that the amount of battery power and storage California has added in the past I think it was three years is equivalent to having built 12 new nuclear power plants and if California built 12 nuclear power plants we would talk about it

Speaker A: 一直在谈论这件事。

Original English

Speaker A: all the time

Speaker B: 这将成为一个重大的政治话题。

Original English

Speaker B: it would be a big political topic

Speaker A: 是的,的确如此。电池就像米色的大盒子,你知道的,所以它们没那么有趣。但是没错,电池正在迅速将黑夜变为白昼。而且,太阳能并不是我们唯一可以利用的。现在的风能基本上和太阳能一样便宜了。风能的美妙之处在于它完美地补充了太阳能。它在地理上做出了补充,日照较少的高纬度地区往往有更多的风。它在时间上也做出了补充,在冬天,当太阳在天空中的位置较低时,我们往往会获得更多的风。如果我们把这些东西串联起来建造,然后再把电池放在它们旁边,我们谈论的就是全天候 24/7 的电力了。

Original English

Speaker A: yes indeed batteries are like large beige boxes you know so they're not as interesting um but yes batteries are quickly turning night into day. Um, and sun is not the only thing we have going for us. Wind power is now essentially as cheap as solar power. And wind power is beautiful in that it complements the sun perfectly. It complements it uh geographically. Higher latitudes with less sun tend to have more wind. It complements it temporarily. uh in the winter when the sun is lower in the sky, we tend to get more wind. If we build these things in tandem and then we put batteries next to them, we're talking 24/7 power.

电池储能的飞速进展

Speaker B: 所以你听到的担忧是,这真的是 24/7 全天候电力吗。有时,在某些地方,并不是所有地方,也不是所有时间。我们大规模使用的电池不能永远储存电力。所以你仍然会面临显著的间歇性问题。

Original English

Speaker B: So the concern you hear about that is that is 24/7 power. Sometimes um in some places, not everywhere, not in all places. The batteries that we have at scale do not hold power forever. So you still have significant intermittency issues.

Speaker A: 电池……

Original English

Speaker A: The batteries

Speaker B: 当我……当我与气候模型专家交谈时,他们会担心这个问题。他们……他们并不是……他们不……

Original English

Speaker B: when I when I talk to climate models, they're they worry about this. They they don't dis they don't

Speaker A: 当然,但我们要明确一点,如果说过去五年是关于太阳能和风能的,那么接下来的五年就是关于电池的。这项技术现在的推进速度惊人。所以突然之间,我们组装出的电池组可以轻松续航 8 个小时。所以我们可以挺过一整夜。而且人们正越来越多地安装可以更长时间储存电力的电池。实现这些功能的技术每个月都在变得越来越令人瞩目。在美国中西部为大型数据中心安装的一个新型大电池,是利用铁的氧化(基本上就是生锈)作为电力的存储机制。中国人现在即使不是全部,也是越来越多地从锂转向钠,我记得钠是地壳中第五大最常见的元素。所以,技术正越来越多地让这一切变得比想象中容易得多。

Original English

Speaker A: sure but let's be clear batteries are now if the last 5 years was about sun and wind. The next five are about batteries and this technology is now moving at extraordinary pace. So all of a sudden we're assembling battery packs that last easily 8 hours. So we're going overnight. But people are putting up increasingly batteries that can hold power much longer than that. And the technologies that accomplish them get more remarkable with each passing month. The big one of the big new batteries going in for a big data center in the Midwest uses the oxidation of iron, essentially rust as the storage mechanism for electric power. The Chinese have now moved not entirely but increasingly from lithium to sodium as sodium is the fifth most common element in the earth's crust I think. Um so so technology is increasingly making this much much much easier to imagine.

全球能源格局的变迁

Speaker B: 那么,让我们来谈谈建立在这些技术之上的全球能源格局吧。在 2026 年 4 月,全球能源智库 Ember 发布了他们的全球电力审查报告。你比我更清楚,这对能源领域的学者们来说是每年的一件大事。报告发现,2025 年全球电力增长的 75% 仅由太阳能满足,这太令人惊讶了。

Original English

Speaker B: So let's talk a bit about the the global energy picture that's been built on these technologies. So in April 2026, the global energy think tank Ember, they released their global electricity review is, you know better than me, a big moment every year for energy monks. It found that 75% of global electricity growth in 2025 was met by solar alone, which is amazing.

Speaker A: 可再生能源首次在发电量中占到三分之一以上,超过了煤炭。我觉得这有点不可思议。我认为这打破了很多人的预期。2025 年,在中国和印度,化石燃料发电量首次出现下降。

Original English

Speaker A: Renewables were over a third of power generation for the first time, overtaking coal. And I found this kind of wild. I think it defies a lot of people's expectations. In 2025 in China and India, fossil fuel generation fell for the first time.

Speaker B: 没错。

Original English

Speaker B: Yep.

Speaker A: 当你在美国开始谈论能源和气候政治时,我经常听到人们说:“好吧,中国和印度都不会这么做,所以我们做什么都没用。”但中国可能是世界上最重要的电力化驱动力。

Original English

Speaker A: I often hear when you start talking about energy and climate politics in America, people say, "Well, China and Indian aren't going to do it, and so it doesn't matter what we do." But China's been probably the world's most important driver of electrote.

Speaker B: 关于中国,让我们……让我们把这一点说清楚。他们不仅是电力化的最大驱动力,而且正在利用它在全球范围内确立技术和经济的主导地位,这也可能会伴随着某种政治主导地位。

Original English

Speaker B: China is, let's let's be clear about this. Not only are they the biggest driver of electric, they're using it to assume a position of technological and economic primacy on this planet that will probably come with a kind of political primacy, too.

Speaker A: 而且,他们所依靠的这些技术,如果你是一个爱国的美国人,我们本应该掌握它们。我是说,我们谈到了 1954 年的第一块太阳能电池。世界上第一台工业风力涡轮机就在我佛蒙特州卡斯尔顿家以南 20 英里的爷爷山(Grandpa's Knob)上。看看特朗普政府在过去 18 个月里的所作所为,我认为,把未来完全拱手让给我们理论上的主要对手,这样的决定在国家经济上的自我破坏程度,可以说是史无前例的。顺便说一句,现在中国人拥有大量廉价、清洁的能源,他们可以把它用于任何他们想做的事情。你……你比我更了解人工智能的世界,但你知道电力是完成这项工作的必要条件。他们拥有取之不尽的廉价电力。

Original English

Speaker A: And they're doing it with things that if you're an American patriot, we should own. I mean, we talked about the first solar cell in 1954. first world's first industrial wind turbine was 20 miles south of my house in Castleton, Vermont on Grandpa's Knob. Watching the Trump administration over the last 18 months, I don't think there's ever been an act of national economic self-sabotage that quite compares with our decision to deliver lock, stock, and barrel the future to our theoretical main adversary. And now the Chinese, by the way, have a huge supply of cheap, clean energy that they can use for anything that they want. You're you're more um hooked into the world of AI than I am, but you know that electricity is the sinoquinon of getting this done. They have endless amounts of cheap electricity.

Speaker A: 我的意思是,中国人工作速度之快令人震惊。去年的这个时候,中国人每天安装 3 千兆瓦的太阳能发电量。现在,一千兆瓦大致相当于一个大型燃煤发电厂。也就是说,他们每 8 小时就能安装一个由太阳能电池板组成的同等规模的发电厂。懂吗?人们,我觉得人们甚至无法想象这一切发生的速度有多快。现在,好消息是,这种趋势正在向各种地方蔓延。边境那边的巴基斯坦可以说是这个星球上受气候变化打击最严重的地方。但地理位置却给他们带来了一个好处:给了他们与中国接壤的边界。在过去的 18 个月里,数量惊人的太阳能电池板越过边境运到了那里。如果你去看看谷歌地球上拉合尔、卡拉奇、伊斯兰堡的屋顶图像,那里简直就是一片太阳能电池板的海洋。这不是一个政府项目。这是受够了昂贵且不可靠的电力的人们,购买了廉价的中国太阳能电池板,然后去 YouTube 和 TikTok 上学习如何自己组装。我们经常只从气候变化的角度来谈论这种能源转型,但污染也是其中的一部分。我记得大概是 2019 年在拉合尔,那里的空气吸进去会灼伤喉咙。是的。

Original English

Speaker A: I mean, this pace at which the Chinese have worked is astonishing. This time last year, the Chinese were putting up 3 gawatts of solar power a day. Now, a gigawatt is the rough equivalent of a large coal fired power plant. So, they were putting up one of those made out of solar panels every 8 hours. Okay? People, I think, can barely grasp the speed at which this has been happening. And now, the good news is that it's leaking out in all kinds of places. Pakistan across the border is arguably the place hit hardest by climate change on this planet. But geography played them one good trick. Gave them a border with China across which have come over the last 18 months an astonishing number of solar panels. If you go look at Google Earth images of the rooftops of Lahore, Karachi, Islamabad, they're just a sea of solar panels. This wasn't a government program. This was people fed up with expensive and unreliable electricity who bought cheap Chinese solar panels and went on YouTube and Tik Tok to learn how to put them together. We often talk about this energy transition only in terms of climate change but pollution is part of it too. I was in Lahore in I want to say it was 2019 probably and breathing scorched your throat. Yeah,

Speaker B: 那……那……那是刺鼻的味道。我是说,我觉得待在那儿真正让人难受的事情之一就是,想到那些坐在父母摩托车后座上的孩子们,想到他们无时无刻不在呼吸着这些空气。

Original English

Speaker B: it it it was acurid. I mean, and I thought one of the things that was actually hard about being there was just thinking about all the kids I was seeing on, you know, the back of the motorbikes with their parents and thinking about them breathing this in all of the time.

Speaker A: 但不久前你在中国也能看到这样的景象。我的意思是,我们过去经常谈论中国的污染问题。而现在,在许多地方,我们正在以如此之快的速度取得进展,

Original English

Speaker A: But you saw this in China not long ago. I mean, we used to talk constantly about pollution in China. And now we're making in many places such fast progress on

走向清洁能源的直观变化

Speaker A: (污染实际上在某种程度上加速了气候变暖,这是我的理解)不管怎样,我的意思是,让我们先谈谈这件事好的一面。你知道,我还记得以前在北京,有些时候你真的连马路对面都看不见。在过去的10年里,那里的空气明显变得干净多了。上个月中国销售的汽车中,有60%是插电式的。你知道,他们开的都是电动汽车。所以,不仅空气变干净多了——我今年还没去过中国,但我最近和在上海的朋友聊天,他们说最大的变化是城市比以前安静太多了,因为路上有那么大比例的交通工具都是电动的。这会带来很大改变吗?你知道,你之前提到了拉合尔,而在新德里有500万学龄儿童,其中250万孩子因为呼吸那里的空气而患上了不可逆的肺部损伤。好的,我们现在不再需要承受这些了。我们可以解决这个问题,而且可以迅速解决。正如你所说,中国和印度正在认识到这一点。可以说,几乎所有地方都开始明白过来了。我的意思是,截至上个月,在可再生能源部署速度方面,看起来像“下一个巴基斯坦”的国家是菲律宾。他们深受霍尔木兹海峡关闭的影响。于是(发展可再生能源)成了显而易见的出路。大家都在明白两个道理:第一,他们不想再依赖于那些可能被封锁在某个大家以前从未注意过的水道后面的能源;第二,他们不想在能源上依赖像美国这样反复无常、不可靠的国家。

Original English

Speaker A: pollution that it is actually somewhat accelerated warming is my understanding because well I mean let's do the good part of this first. You know I remember being in Beijing on days when you literally couldn't see across the street. Uh in 10 years they've gotten marketkedly cleaner. 60% of the cars sold in China last month came with a plug. you know, they're driving EVs. So, not only are they is the air much cleaner, I I I haven't been to China this year, but I've talked to friends recently in Shanghai who were saying the biggest change is it's way quieter than it used to be because so much of the traffic is electric. And does this make a big difference? You know, you talked about L'ore, New Delhi has 5 million school children. Two and a half million of them have irreversible lung damage from breathing the air. Okay. And we don't need that anymore. We can deal with this and deal with it quickly. And as you say, China and India are figuring that out. Pretty much every place is starting to figure it out. I mean, as of last month, the country that uh looks like it's the new Pakistan in terms of the speed of its deployment of renewables is the Philippines. They were hard hit by the shutdown of the straight of Hormuse. This became the clear obvious way out. Everybody is figuring out a that they don't want to rely on something that can be bottled up behind a waterway no one had ever thought about, you know, before this. And B, they don't want to depend for energy on a country as erratic and unreliable as the United States.

Speaker B: 我想分几点来谈,但我想先花一分钟谈谈,生活在一个清洁能源电气化世界里会有什么不同。我之所以想在这上面花点时间,原因之一是,我认为在很长一段时间里,(环保的)诉求一直被视为一种牺牲,而我们却很少谈论如果我们做对了,生活能够变得有多好。

Original English

Speaker B: So I want to take this in some pieces but I want to stay for a minute on the differences in living in a clean energy electrified world. And one reason I want to spend time on it is I think for a very long time the ask has been a kind of sacrifice and we have not talked very much about what could be better if we get this right.

Speaker A: 我的意思是,我们就花一分钟聊聊这个。我们生活在一个建立在汽车之上的国家,这是20世纪美国最显著的特征。嗯,对于喜欢车的人来说,一旦你坐过电动汽车,你就再也不想坐回燃油车了。它们很安静。它们几乎没有机械运动部件,所以不需要修理。甚至比电动汽车更好的是电动自行车(ebike),我认为它可能会成为我们这个时代地球上最具变革性的发明,你知道的。嗯……

Original English

Speaker A: I mean let's just talk about it for a minute. We live in a country built by the automobile, the defining feature of America in the 20th century. Um, for people who like cars, once you've been in an EV, you're not going back to a gas car. They're quiet. They have almost no moving parts, so they don't need to be repaired. Even better than the EV is the ebike, which I think may turn out to be the transformative invention of our time on Earth, you know. Um,

Speaker B: 这评价可真够高的。

Original English

Speaker B: that's a big statement right there.

Speaker A: 好吧,你还记得,这挺有意思的,因为你还记得,你可能还太小不记得这件事——呃,大概20年前之类的,大家都在说:“有一项奇妙的新发明要问世了,它将改变一切。” 结果发现它是赛格威(Segway)。

Original English

Speaker A: Well, you remember, it's funny because you remember, you may be too young to remember this, uh, 20 years ago or something, everybody was saying, "There's a fancy new invention coming that's going to change everything." And it turned out to be the Segway.

Speaker B: 赛格威。我确实记得那个。

Original English

Speaker B: The Segway. I do remember that.

Speaker A: 那真是最让人失望的发明了。不过,电动自行车跟那可不一样。

Original English

Speaker A: That was the most disappointing. Well, the ebike's different than that.

Speaker B: 孩子们,如果你想看看我们在说什么,如果你想看看,可以去查查“赛格威”。它有着,它有着非常有趣的视觉效果。

Original English

Speaker B: Kids, look up a Segway if you want to see if you want to see what we're talking about. It's an it's a interesting visual

Speaker A: (电动自行车)已经在世界各地普及了。你只需要花几美分的电费,就能骑着自行车跑上好几英里又好几英里。这是一项非常了不起的技术。

Original English

Speaker A: everywhere around the world. You can for a few pennies worth of electricity go miles and miles and miles on a bike. It's pretty remarkable technology.

Speaker B: 嗯,我通常不骑电动自行车。我在纽约市周围经常骑城市自行车,我通常不选择电动自行车恰恰证明了电动自行车技术的强大,因为它太快了,太强劲了。它也剥夺了骑行的乐趣。

Original English

Speaker B: Um, I often don't get the ebike. I do a lot of city biking around New York and it's a testament to the technology of the the ebike that I often don't choose it because it is too fast. too capable. It takes away also the fun of riding.

Speaker A: 这说明你是,说明你骨子里是个清教徒,所以你知道。

Original English

Speaker A: And you're and you're a Puritan, so you know.

技术乌托邦与廉价能源的突破

Speaker B: 不,我其实是觉得在纽约市的街道上移动得那么快会让我感到有点发慌。我不太完全相信我自己的反应能力。我想稍微转一下话题——也许我不想把这称为技术乌托邦主义。我觉得每次你谈到技术能让人们的生活变得更好的方式时,人们就会说,你是个技术乌托邦主义者吗?你现在是,或者你曾经是一个技术乌托邦主义者吗?但实际上,很多我们想做却做不到的事情,是因为做这些事的能源太昂贵了。所以世界上很大一部分地区生活在水资源短缺之中。

Original English

Speaker B: No, I actually mean I find it a little bit unnerving to move that fast on New York City streets. I I don't fully trust myself in my reflexes. I want to move to maybe I don't want to call this technological utopianism. I feel like every time you talk about a way technology can make people's lives better, it's like, are you a technological utopian? Are you now or have you ever been a technological utopian? But a lot of what we can't do that we would like to do is because the energy to do it is too expensive. So a lot of the world lives under water scarcity.

Speaker A: 嗯。

Original English

Speaker A: Mhm.

Speaker B: 海水淡化的成本在非常大的程度上取决于用于海水淡化的能源成本。世界上很多地方也生活在食物短缺之中。垂直农场的成本受能源成本的影响极大,因为其中非常大一部分的成本是照明。还有一系列关于,你知道,我们谈论的气候变化问题,按照我们目前的发展轨迹,在未来的世界里,我们需要开始对大气中的碳进行捕获。但这在经济上是不划算的。它还有其他问题,但关键是,如果你没有廉价且充足的清洁能源,这样做在经济上是不可行的。我之所以挑出这三个例子,是因为我认为它们在一种非常特定的意义上很有趣。一方面,它们能切实改善人们的生活,对吧?拥有足够的水,拥有足够的食物,不用生活在一个高温陷阱里。但另一方面是,在某些方面,技术和与地球建立一种更加和谐的关系实际上是可以相互结合的。比如,农业就是一个很好的例子,如果我们能够更多地进行垂直农业,我们就不必像现在这样占用那么多的土地用于农业。有一些现在不可能做到的事情将会变得可能,那是真正具有深远影响的。

Original English

Speaker B: The cost of desalination is very heavily the cost of energy that goes into desalination. A lot of the world lives under food scarcity. The cost of vertical farming is very heavily influenced by the cost of energy because a huge amount of the um price of it is light. There are a series of you know climate change which we talk about given the path we are on there is a world in the future where we need to begin doing capture of carbon in the atmosphere. That is not economical to do. It has other problems but is not economical to do if you do not have cheap and abundant clean energy. I picked these three because I think they're interesting in a very particular way. They one could really improve the lives of people, right? Having enough water, having enough food, not living in a heat trap. But the other is that there ways where technology and a more harmonious relationship with the earth can actually connect to each other. that there for instance farming is a good example where if we were able to do more farming vertically we would not have to use as much land for agriculture as we currently do. There are things that would become possible that are not now possible that are really profound.

Speaker A: 即便是现在,你也能看到一些小小的奇迹。在我的这本书里,我描述了身处一个仓库中的经历。那大概是18个月前在奥克兰。嗯,在奥克兰一个有点破旧的工业区,在其中一扇门后面有两个小伙子,其中一个是从特斯拉出来的。呃,他们正在开创如何制造镁的技术。嗯,镁是一种结构金属。它的效果和钢或铝一样好,但是在制造它时一直伴随着高昂的能源成本。但它有其他的技术优势。所以,例如,与铝不同,你可以中断冶炼过程。如果温度偏差了几度,它不会冻结成结晶状态。所以这两个人弄明白的是,在像加利福尼亚这样的地方,现在下午有巨大的电力过剩,因此电价非常便宜,他们可以在下午运转冶炼炉,在晚上关掉,第二天再回来重新运转。他们实际上是在用阳光和海水制造金属。这能让你对未来的可能性有所了解。呃,呃,在世界各地,像这样的故事有10000个。

Original English

Speaker A: Even now you can see small miracles and this book of mine I describe being in a warehouse. This would have been 18 months ago in Oakland. Um, and in sort of beat up industrial district of Oakland and behind one door there were these two guys, one of whom had come from Tesla. Uh, who were pioneering how to make magnesium. Um, magnesium is a structural metal. It's works as well as steel or aluminum, but it's been there's been a high energy cost associated with making it. But it had other technological advantages. So for instance, unlike aluminum, you can interrupt the smelting process. It doesn't freeze into a crystallin state if the temperature deviates a few degrees. So what these guys had figured out was that in a place like California, which now has a big surplus of electricity in the afternoon, and hence it's very cheap, they could run their smelter during the afternoon, turn it off at night, come back the next day and run it again. They were making metal out of sunlight and seawater. That gives you some sense of the possibilities. Uh uh and there are 10,000 stories like that around the world.

Speaker B: 那么请你帮我把这个话题再展开一下。你认为在这个拥有更易获取能源的世界里,无论是在我们这里还是在其他国家,什么将会变得可能?

Original English

Speaker B: So what widen that out for me. What do you think becomes possible here or in other countries right in a world where there is more accessible energy?

清洁能源与全球公平

Speaker A: 更加容易获取的能源,你知道,是在世界各地接近实现我们所说的“可持续发展目标”的必要条件(sine qua non)。当你去到非洲时,你就能真切地感受到这一点,那里仍有6亿或7亿人没有真正的电力供应。我记得我曾去过加纳的一个村庄,呃,离阿克拉很远,那里以前从来没有通过电。呃,就在前一天,他们建起了一个这样的社区微电网,用了非常简陋的电线,50块太阳能板,把简陋的线路接到这个村子里每一户非常小的房子里。第二天,我和村里的长者们坐在一起,呃,聊天。他们不停地递给我冰镇的瓶装水喝,对此我非常感激。我是个特别容易出汗的人。赤道的阳光绝对不是我的菜。但是,带着我那种西方人迟钝的方式,我花了15分钟才想明白为什么他们那么自豪地给我递冰水——因为直到前一天,那个地方真的从来没有过任何冰冷的东西。没有人曾经拥有过冰箱。现在,那个冰箱最重要的用途将会是储存疫苗,但是,呃,另一个用途将会是偶尔提供冷水,实际上还有冰淇淋,因为那天也有村里的孩子们生平第一次尝到了冰淇淋的味道。你真的能感觉到这是一个多么不可思议的奇迹。

这件事的另一个维度是,它让一个稍微有点钱的村庄能够靠自己的力量来实现供电。它不需要一个中央集权机构来施舍给他们。世界上有许多许多许多地方,他们之所以没有电而同一个国家的另一个地方却有电,原因在于他们属于不受待见的少数民族,或者仅仅是因为他们那里人口不够多,排不到获得基础设施的优先名单上。所以当你不需要为了满足需求而进行大规模资本投资时……

Original English

Speaker A: more accessible energy is at, you know, the the sine qua non [synagoguan] for getting anywhere near what we've called the sustainable development goals around the world. And you really get a sense of this when you get to Africa where there's still 6 or 700 million people with no real electricity. I remember being in a village in uh Ghana uh far away from Acra where there would never had power uh and they'd put up one of these community micro grids the day before with rudimentary wire 50 panels and rudimentary wiring out to each of the very small homes in this village. And I was sitting the next day with the village elders uh talking. They kept handing me bottles of cold water to drink, which I was grateful for. I'm a verter. The equatorial sun is not my thing. But it took me in my clueless western way 15 minutes to figure out why they were so proud to be handing me bottles of cold water until the day before. There really hadn't been anything cold in that place. No one had ever had a refrigerator. Now the most important use for that refrigerator was going to be storing vaccines but uh the the other use was going to be providing cold water some of the time and in fact ice cream because there were kids having their first taste of it that day too. You really get a sense of what a miracle this is. One of the other dimensions of that is it makes it possible for a village with a little bit of money to do it on their own. It does not need to be granted to them by a centralized authority. And there are many many many places in the world where the reason they don't have power and another place does even in that same country is they're part of the disfavored ethnic minority or just there weren't enough of them there to put them up in the priority list of where gets the the infrastructure. So when you don't have large capital investments as what you need

清洁能源与能源富足

Bill: 为了拥有稳定的能源,真正了不起的事情成为了可能。其中一些事情你可能不会马上想到。比如我曾去过另一个已经通电6个月的村庄,我问村里的一些老人有什么改变。他们说的其中一件事是,搬到城里住的家人现在会回来看我们了。嗯,因为有了电风扇,而且太阳一下山就不会马上变黑。你知道,就是这些事情,这些对人们来说是巨大的改变。我确实想花点时间探讨一下这种可能性的空间,而且这不是指清洁能源现在或在未来一两年内能带来的技术上的可能,而是,如果你想象一些我们不常去想的事情——那就是清洁能源带来的财富,清洁能源的富足,世界上每一个人,但现在让我们先谈谈美国人,每个美国人都能获得比我们现在多得多的能源。现在,人们更容易想象廉价能源,对吧,比如我们在谈论澳大利亚的时候,那种清洁能源的富足会带来什么是现在不可能实现的。所以当你想想那个世界,其中有什么是我们的世界里没有的。听着,我会说实话,我不认为在我们的个人生活中,美国人需要获得比现在更多的能源。我们已经使用了大量的能源,而且在我看来,我们用得很奇怪。我们建造了巨大的房子,结果发现这甚至不能让我们非常快乐,因为我们的家人都在房子的各个远端,诸如此类。所以对我来说,乐趣不在于想象——

Original English

Bill: in order to have steady energy really remarkable things become possible. And some of those things are very um you wouldn't think of right away. So I was at another village that had had uh electricity for 6 months and I asked the some of the older people in the village what had changed. And one of the things they said was our families that moved to the city will come out and visit us now. Um uh because it doesn't get dark the minute the sun goes down because we have a fan. you know those sort of things those are enormous differences for people. I I do want to spend some time in the space of possibility and in the space not of the technologies that clean energy make possible now or in the next year or two but if you imagine something we don't imagine that often which is the wealth of clean energy clean energy abundance every person in the world but let's for now talk about Americans every American having access to much more energy per American than than we do Now it it's easier for people to imagine cheap energy, right, where we're talking about Australia, then what that kind of clean energy abundance makes possible that is not now possible. But so when you think of that world, what is in it that is not in our world. So look, I I'll say truthfully, I don't think Americans in our personal lives need access to much more energy than we have now. We already use huge quantities of it and we use it for my money strangely. We build enormous houses that turn out not even to make us very happy because our families are all off in separate ends of them and so on and so forth. So for me the pleasure is not imagining

Interviewer: 现在谁才是清教徒啊。

Original English

Interviewer: now who's a puritan

清洁能源时代的权力重构

Bill: 所有这些,乐趣在于……通过对比来想象,它如何让我们去想象一个不同的政治世界。如果你依赖一种只在少数几个地方才有的资源,那么控制这少数几个地方的人最终会获得过大的权力。在这个国家里,我们最大的石油和天然气巨头是科赫兄弟(Koch brothers)。我认为,在过去的三十年里,他们用自己赚取的财富侵蚀了我们民主的根基。如果你想知道为什么唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)那么容易就能把这些根基踢翻,那是因为它们从一开始就有点腐烂了。弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin),你知道,他在碳氢化合物赌场里赢得的钱,资助了21世纪欧洲的一场陆地战争。还有沙特阿拉伯的国王。因此,我认为清洁能源带来的一种富足是……这是一种从我们已经习惯的、伴随肮脏能源而来的权力集中中获得的解放。

Original English

Bill: all of this the pleasure comes in uh uh imagining by contrast what it how it allows us to imagine a kind of different political world. If you depend on a resource that's only available in a few places then the people who control those few places end up with way too much power. Our biggest uh oil and gas barons in this country were the Koch brothers. They used their winnings, I think, to erode the foundations of our democracy over the last three decades. If you wonder why it was so easy for Donald Trump to kick them over, it's because they were kind of rotten to start with. Vladimir Putin, uh, you know, his winnings in the hydrocarbon casino have funded a land war in Europe in the 21st century. the king of Saudi Arabia. And so one of the abundances that comes, I think, with clean energy is a uh is a kind of liberation from the concentrations of power that we've grown accustomed to with dirty energy.

Interviewer: 我得说实话,我对这个愿景相当怀疑。我很想相信它,对吧?我希望它是真的。但我环顾四周,当然,在我们生活的这个世界里,寡头和独裁者中,有许多人是从化石燃料中获得了权力和财富,对吧?这是无可争辩的。但你看看周围,随着中国变得越来越像一个电气化国家,习近平失去权力了吗?世界上最富有的人埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk),是伟大的清洁汽车企业家之一。哦,得了吧,比尔。这太荒谬了。你不需要……你不需要喜欢这个人,但如果你不打算给特斯拉(Tesla)在电动汽车转型中应得的认可。你知道的,

Original English

Interviewer: I have to be honest, I'm pretty skeptical of this vision. I want to believe it, right? I want to believe it. But I look around and it's of course true that oligarchs and authoritarians in the world we live in, many of them have derived their power and their wealth from fossil fuels, right? That's inarguable. But you look around and has Xi Jinping lost power as China has become more of an electrotte state. The richest man in the world, Elon Musk, is one of the great clean vehicle entrepreneurs. Oh, come on, Bill. That's ridiculous. You don't got to You don't have to like the guy, but if you're not going to give Tesla, it's due on the EV transition. You know,

Bill: 特斯拉现在大概是你所能买到的排名第75位的电动汽车了,你知道,

Original English

Bill: Tesla now is like the uh 75th best EV you could ever purchase, you know,

Interviewer: 但在美国,这是唯一赚钱的一家。

Original English

Interviewer: but the only one in America that makes money.

Bill: 在美国是唯一赚钱的,因为我们不让世界其他地方的许多竞争对手进来。呃,

Original English

Bill: The only one in America that makes money because we don't let many competitors from the rest of the world. Uh

Interviewer: 好吧,我同意。听着,我们可以讨论我们是否应该引进中国电动汽车,但我想说的是,

Original English

Interviewer: Well, I agree. Listen, we can talk about whether or not we should bring in the China EV, but what I am saying

清洁能源与化石燃料的经济差异

Bill: 我接受你的观点。我想说的是,中国是资本集中的地方。是的,但那里不会有同样方式的财富集中。你知道,人们总是问的一个问题是,为什么埃克森美孚(Exxon)不直接进入太阳能电池板业务。尤其是现在我们知道,埃克森美孚早在20世纪80年代就对气候变化了如指掌。他们有很好的内部研究,让他们知道未来会发生什么,这也本可以让他们在应对这一趋势时占据巨大的领先优势。前年,埃克森美孚的首席执行官解释了原因。他基本上的意思是:“我们永远不会这样做,因为这无法为我们的投资者提供高于平均水平的回报。” 他是对的,因为一旦你安装了太阳能电池板,当早晨太阳升起时,它就能免费为你提供能源。从埃克森美孚的角度来看,那是有史以来最愚蠢的商业模式,你知道的。

Original English

Bill: I I take your point. What what I'm saying is China is concentrations of money. Yes, but there won't be concentrations of wealth in the same way. You know, one of the questions that people always ask is why doesn't Exxon just go into the solar panel business. Uh especially now that we know that Exxon knew all about climate change back in the 1980s. They had their own good internal research that let them know what was coming and would have given them a hefty lead in getting ahead of this curve. The CEO of Exxon explained the answer to that year before last. He said essentially, "We're never going to do this because it doesn't offer above average returns for our investors." And he was right because once you've got the solar panel up, when the sun rises in the morning, it delivers your energy for free. And from Exxon's point of view, that's the stupidest business model, you know, of all time.

Interviewer: 所以,我想……我至少要对其中一部分保留我的怀疑。但有一件事,你知道,听到人们在谈论,我很好奇你想知道你在多大程度上相信这一点,那就是——长期以来,话题都是关于气候政治的,而现在变成了气候经济学。所以很明显,唐纳德·特朗普第二次上任,取消了《通货膨胀削减法案》(Inflation Reduction Act)中的大部分关键的风能和太阳能补贴。当我与这些行业周边的人交谈时,他们对此感到不满,但这并没有像在其他时候那样破坏整个行业或能源转型。你……你是否觉得这是一个充满希望的愿景?有很多……甚至在过去几周的数据中,你也能看到被取消的项目数量。我认为我们目前看到的,仍然是拜登时期积累的势头。我认为我们很快就会看到,特朗普政府是多么有效地压制了许多那种势头。嗯……我的意思是……那么,如果你说的经济学确实有那么好,为什么这会是真的呢?因为这其中存在着矛盾,一方面说这就像是能源界的Costco,它比其他任何东西都便宜,另一方面又说,取消政府补贴就能摧毁它。

Original English

Interviewer: So, I want to I'm going to hold my skepticism at least some of that. But one thing, you know, hear people talking about, I'm curious to know to what degree you buy this, is that for a long time the topic was climate politics and now it's climate economics. So obviously Donald Trump came into office the second time gutted much of the key wind and solar subsidies in the inflation reduction act and when I talk to people around these industries they're upset about that but it has not wrecked the industry or the transition in the way it might have been another time or do you do you feel that that's the hopeful vision there's a lot there's been some data even in the last couple of weeks looking at the number of projects that have been cancelled And I think what we're seeing for the moment still is the momentum that was built up in the Biden years. And I think what we're going to see pretty quickly is just how effectively the Trump administration has quashed a lot of that momentum. Um it's I mean the And why would that be true if the economics are as good as you say they are? Because there's a tension there between saying this is a Costco of energy, it's cheaper than anything else and also taking away government subsidies can destroy it.

政府补贴与政治阻力

Bill: 因为这些……嗯,这甚至不只是取消政府补贴那么简单。嗯,我的意思是……首先让我们谈谈经济方面。我的意思是,可再生能源的经济学与化石能源的经济学不同。所有的成本都是前期投入的。对于太阳能电池板……一旦你安装好了,电力就是免费的。所以,给人们足够的钱,以便他们能为太阳能电池板融资并将其安装好,这是一回事。这很重要,但取消这些补贴也不至于完全是致命的。真正致命的是,联邦政府对可再生能源发起了全面而绝对的猛攻。事实上,美国纳税人已经开出了数十亿美元的支票,以买回公司在拜登政府时期支付的风能租赁权——这完全是为了确保风能产业永远无法向海上扩张。联邦土地基本上已经禁止安装太阳能电池板了。联邦政府在审查陆上风能时——而这为中西部大部分地区提供了电力——嗯,呃,在过去一年里,他们基于完全荒谬和虚假的理由停止发放任何新许可证,说什么这可能会……我不知道什么……对雷达有影响。这些都不是真的。这全都是在为化石燃料行业卖命。你会记得,相当公开地,候选人特朗普向化石燃料行业宣称:“如果你们给我的竞选活动捐十亿美元,我就给你们任何你们想要的东西。”

Original English

Bill: because those well it's not even just taking away government subsidies. Um I mean so first let's talk about the economic part. I mean the economics of renewable energy are different than the economics of fossil energy. All the cost comes up front. Solar panel uh once you've got it up the electricity is free. So getting people enough money to they can finance that solar panel and get it up one thing. It's important, but taking away those subsidies wouldn't have been completely fatal. What's been fatal is the full-on absolute onslaught of the federal government against renewable energy. In fact, the US taxpayers have written checks for billions of dollars to buy back the wind leasing rights that companies had paid for in the Biden administration completely in an effort to make sure that wind industry never expands offshore. Federal lands have been essentially put off limits to solar panels off federal lands. the federal government on looking at onshore wind uh which powers much of the Midwest. Uh uh they've in the last year stopped giving out any new permits on completely absurd and speurious grounds about that it might I don't know what uh do something to radar. None of this is true. It's all just carrying water for the fossil fuel industry. As you'll recall, fairly publicly, candidate Trump declared to the fossil fuel industry, "If you give me a billion dollars for my campaign, I'll give you anything you want."

Interviewer: 所以,这是一个很好的过渡,让我们看看气候政治现在的处境。从拜登时期气候政治所处的地位——呃,不仅是《通货膨胀削减法案》,还有它作为一个持续关注的焦点、作为看待世界大部分事物的一个视角的方式——你可以看到这场运动的激烈程度。所有的财富500强企业都至少很乐意在这个问题上说一些漂亮话。而从那时起发生了什么,不仅是这些补贴被废除,不仅是联邦土地对太阳能电池板关闭。

Original English

Interviewer: So, this is a good transition into where climate politics stands. the ferocity of the movement between where climate politics stood in the Biden years uh not just the inflation reduction act but the way it existed as a constant concern as a lens through which much of the world was seen all the Fortune 500 companies were happy to at least talk a good game here to what has happened since it's not just the demolition of those subsidies not just the closing of federal lands to solar panels.

Bill: 还有人们所描述的“气候噤声”(climate hushing)。

Original English

Bill: But what I've heard people describe as climate hushing.

Interviewer: 所以你不再听到民主党政客像以前那样频繁地谈论气候问题。你没有听到财富500强企业这么做。这不仅适用于,你知道,中间派或温和派民主党人,在左翼也是如此,对吧?如果你……

Original English

Interviewer: So you don't hear Democratic politicians talk about climate nearly as much as he did before. You do not hear the Fortune 500 companies doing this. And this is true not just for, you know, centristy or moderate Dems, but but on the left, right? If you

Bill: 哦,这完全像……我……我……真正的……我的意思是,最完美的例子就在我们身边,就是纽约州州长凯西·霍楚尔(Kathy Hochul),在过去的几个月里,她基本上掏空了该州的气候政策。呃,再一次,部分原因是为了向……表忠心。

Original English

Bill: Oh, it's completely like I I I the the real I mean the perfect example is close to home is Kathy Hokll the governor of New York who's essentially gutted the state's climate policy over the last few months. Uh again out of some combination of feelalty to

气候政治的周期与挫折感

Speaker A: ……捐赠者,以及把对可负担性的担忧作为新的口头禅。嗯,所以你对“可负担性”打了个引号,但我认为实际上民主党政客确实对此有担忧……

Original English

Speaker A: ...donors and uh worries about affordability as the new mantra. Well, so you did a kind of air quotes around affordability, but I think actually Democratic politicians do have worries about...

Speaker B: 哦,我同意。

Original English

Speaker B: Oh, I agree.

Speaker A: 不仅仅是对可负担性的担忧,还有一种普遍的感觉,即气候问题让他们脱离了选民。这不是因为选民在民意调查中不关心这个问题,而是因为我从民主党人那里听到的说法,或者说他们似乎获得了大量的调查数据,并且被人们说服,认为选民对他们的印象是他们只关心气候问题,而不关心人们在经济上的日常挣扎。而它的第二个层面仅仅是看到了这样一个现象,即当油价上涨时,当物价普遍上涨时,那确实瓦解了……

Original English

Speaker A: And not just about affordability, but a generalized sense that climate was something that was putting them out of step with voters. Not because voters don't care about it in a poll, but because the versions of this I've heard from Democrats or one that it seemed that they got a lot of survey data and they were persuaded by people that the picture the electorate had of them was that they care about climate and not the day-to-day struggle, right, of people working on the pocketbook. And the second dimension of it was simply a seeing something which was that when oil prices went up, when prices in general went up, that that really dissolved...

Speaker B: 是的。

Original English

Speaker B: right

Speaker A: 人们对于……的意愿。

Original English

Speaker A: the willingness people had for...

Speaker B: 所以。

Original English

Speaker B: so

Speaker A: 做出牺牲或接受限制的意愿。这里还有其他因素,比如围绕气候问题的政治,有点像运动政治,通过《通胀削减法案》(Inflation Reduction Act),它实现了最初设定的大部分目标。这是一种人们几十年来从事的大量工作的自然终点。因此,许多人似乎放下了武器,放下了他们的步枪,去从事建设这个新未来的工作了。

Original English

Speaker A: sacrifice or limitations. And there are other factors here too, like the politics, sort of movement politics around climate, you know, achieved most of what it had set out to do with the inflation reduction act. That was the kind of natural endpoint of a lot of the work that people had been engaged in for decades. And so a lot of people sort of disarmed, you know, put down their rifles and went off to do the work of building out this new future.

气候关注度的起伏循环

Speaker B: 嗯,作为一个老年人,并且在很长一段时间里一直参与这个故事,我仅有的几个优势之一是,我在1980年代写了通常被称为第一本关于我们当时所谓的“温室效应”的书。优势在于我已经看到了这些周期的来来去去。我们曾经在1988年和1989年对此有强烈的兴趣。我的书最终被翻译成了24种语言。然后,随着石油工业为《京都议定书》的谈判做准备,这种关注度下降了,并在布什和切尼接管美国政策时陷入了真正的低谷。阿尔·戈尔(Al Gore)成功地再次将其激发起来。但随后在哥本哈根会议失败后它又平息了。我们建立了一场声势浩大的运动,使气候变化变得重要,并帮助促成了《巴黎协定》。当那股势头开始衰退时,格蕾塔·通贝里(Greta Thunberg)和她的运动出现了,这把世界500强企业吓得半死,于是他们也加入了进来。现在,化石燃料行业正在反击,而且在这个国家已经成功地进行了反击。我们要清楚,世界上其他绝大多数国家仍然致力于解决气候问题,并且在……

Original English

Speaker B: Um, I've one of the one of the few advantages of being an old person and having been around this story for a very long time. I wrote what's often called the first book about what we then called the greenhouse effect back in the 1980s. Uh, is that I've seen these cycles come and go. We've had, you know, we had intense interest in 1988 and 89. My book ended up in 24 languages. Uh, then that, you know, dipped uh, as the oil industry geared up for the Kyoto talks and went into a real lull as Bush and Cheney took over American policy. Al Gore managed to gin it up again. Uh, but then it subsided after the failure at Copenhagen. We built a big movement that made climate change important and helped yield the Paris Accords. When that momentum began to flag, Greta Thunberg and her movement emerged and that scared the hell out of Fortune 500 companies and they got on board. Now the fossil fuel industry is fighting, has fought successfully back in this country. Let's be clear, pretty much the rest of the world remains committed to working on climate and on a...

Speaker A: 欧洲已经出现了一定程度的倒退。

Original English

Speaker A: there's been a fair amount of regression in Europe.

Speaker B: 我们走着瞧。我的意思是,英国人即将任命一位新财政大臣。我打赌是埃德·米利班德(Ed Miliband),他一直是英国在能源和气候问题上最有效力的人,但我们走着瞧吧。无论如何,我认为这个特定的气候压制周期正在迅速走向终结。在欧洲,我们刚刚经历了一场史诗般的热浪,它正在实时重塑政治格局。我的意思是,有很多很多的人死亡。地球即将进入一个为期12或18个月的时期,这在其历史上是前所未有的。今天我们坐在这里时,太平洋中正在积聚力量的厄尔尼诺现象(El Nino),看起来将是极长一段时间内同类现象中最强的一次。这意味着在2026年,以及绝对在2027年,地球将看到比人类历史上任何时候都要高的温度。

Original English

Speaker B: We'll see. I mean, the Brits are about to name a new chancellor. My money's on Ed Miliband, who's been the uh most effective energy and climate guy in the UK, but we'll see. Um, at any rate, I think that this particular cycle of climate hushing is coming quickly to an end. Uh, in Europe, we've just gone through a heat wave so epic that it's rewriting the politics as it happens. You know, I mean, lots and lots and lots of people dead. Um, the earth is about to enter a 12 or 18-month period unlike any in its history. The El Nino that's gathering force in the Pacific as we sit here today looks like it's going to be the strongest thing of its kind in a very long time. That means that the Earth in 2026 and definitely in 2027 is going to see temperatures higher than it's ever... humans.

极端天气的现实影响

Speaker A: 你能描述一下……我想人们都听过这个词,但你能描述一下什么是厄尔尼诺吗?

Original English

Speaker A: Can you describe... I think people have heard the term, but can you describe what an El Nino is?

Speaker B: 厄尔尼诺是一种周期性现象,在太平洋释放出大量热量,然后这些热量会在全球各地表现出来。而且它发生的时候,比如在我们这个国家,我们已经很脆弱了。我们刚刚经历了美国西部有史以来最热的冬天,幅度很大。我昨天在科罗拉多州,那里今年冬天基本上没有积雪。就在昨天或前天,三名消防员在科罗拉多州与犹他州交界处牺牲,他们正在扑灭我认为将是今年最早发生的火灾之一。我担心,我们将看到一场异常的火灾瘟疫。

Original English

Speaker B: El Nino is the uh the periodic phenomenon where heat is released in large quantities from the Pacific and that heat then expresses itself all over the planet. And it comes at a time when, say, in this country we're already vulnerable. Uh, we just had the hottest winter in the western United States by a large margin. And I was in Colorado yesterday, uh, where there was no snowpack this winter to speak of. And where yesterday, day before, three firefighters died on the Colorado-Utah border fighting what I think is going to be one of the earlier fires of the year. I think we're going to see, I'm afraid, an extraordinary plague of flame.

Speaker A: 加利福尼亚州,我在加利福尼亚州长大时,火灾确实会发生。但它们并不是持续不断的、令人恐惧的生活现实。我有家人在洛杉矶和阿尔塔迪纳(Altadena)的火灾中失去了他们的家园,……这已经使加利福尼亚州变成了一个居住环境发生了根本不同的地方。

Original English

Speaker A: California, I I when I grew up in California, fires happened. They were not the constant frightening fact of life. They I mean I had family lose their homes in the LA and and Altadena fires the... and it has made California into a fundamentally different place to live.

Speaker B: 听着,让我们从两个维度来谈论气候问题。第一个是我们每天都能看到的东西。暖空气比冷空气能容纳更多的水蒸气。这意味着在干旱地区,我们现在看到了更多的水分蒸发和干旱,随之而来的是火灾。而这些火灾现在发生在那些我们绝对想不到甚至有可能起火的地方。一旦这些水分进入空气,它就会降落下来,并且在世界上潮湿的地区以倾盆大雨的形式降落。比如我在佛蒙特州的家乡。在这个十年里,我们已经经历了我们历史上最严重的两场洪水。最近一次让我们的城镇被孤立了好几天、几周。镇子东西两边的公路都被河水冲毁了。所以,有我们能看到的那种破坏,它是巨大的,而在世界上最贫穷的地区情况要糟糕得多,而那些地区并没有做任何引起这个问题的事情。其次,现在人们开始对我们正在对地球上最基本的物理系统造成的破坏有了新的认识。急流(jet stream)的动力来自于赤道和极地之间的温度差。

Original English

Speaker B: Look, let's talk about climate in two dimensions. The first is um the stuff that we can see every day. Warm air holds more water vapor than cold. That means that in arid areas, we're now seeing lots more evaporation and drought and with it fire. And those fires are now in places that we just would never have thought be even possible to catch on fire. Uh, once that water's up in the air, it comes down and it comes down in deluge in wet parts of the world. My town in Vermont. You know, we've had two of the worst floods in our history in the course of this decade. The last one isolated our town for days, weeks. The road both east and west of town was destroyed by the river. Um, so there's that kind of damage that we can see and it is enormous and it's much worse in the poorest parts of the world that have done nothing to cause the problem. Then there's now an emerging uh understanding of the damage we're starting to do to the most fundamental physical systems on the planet. The jet stream draws its power from the temperature differential between the equator and the pole.

全球气候系统的崩溃风险

Speaker A: 你能描述一下什么是急流吗?

Original English

Speaker A: Can you describe what the jet stream is?

Speaker B: 这是高空空气的运动,从而影响了全球各地的天气等现象。因为我们现在如此剧烈地提高了两极的温度,急流已经变得不正常了。它会卡在奇怪的高振幅位置。除其他外,这就导致了这些异常的热穹顶,比如刚刚笼罩欧洲的那个,以及近年来我们在美国看到的那些。也许更引人注目的是一系列洋流,包括我们称之为大西洋经向翻转环流(AMOC)的墨西哥湾暖流。加在一起,它们的流量是亚马逊河的100倍。它们是地球上最大的热量分配引擎。我们一直都知道这里存在危险。随着淡水从融化的格陵兰岛流出,它改变了北大西洋海水的盐度,进而改变了海水的密度。正是这种密度差异驱动了这个巨大的环流。我们过去认为这是下个世纪的问题。最新的科学研究,也就是在这个领域可能最具权威的科学家,几周前在回应最新的一系列论文时说,他认为在未来几十年里,大规模的破坏(即那些洋流的崩溃)有50%的可能会开始。如果发生这种情况,那将是人类历史上最大的文明事件。

Original English

Speaker B: The high altitude movement of air and hence weather and whatever around the planet. Uh, because we've now raised the temperature of the poles so dramatically, the jet stream has gone wonky. It gets stuck in weird high amplitude positions. That allows, among other things, for these uh extraordinary heat domes like the one that just settled over Europe, the ones we've seen in the US in recent years. Probably even more remarkable are the series of currents including the Gulf Stream that we call the Atlantic meridional overturning currents AMOC. Together they are 100 times the flow of the Amazon River. They're the biggest heat distribution engine on planet Earth. We've always known that there was danger here. As melting, as water, fresh water pours off a melting Greenland, it changes the salinity and hence the density of seawater in the North Atlantic. And it's that density differences that drives this giant gyre. We used to think that this was a problem for the next century. The most recent science, the scientist who's maybe the leading authority in all this said a few weeks ago in response to the latest series of papers that he thought there was a 50% chance of the large scale damage beginning collapse of those currents in the decades ahead. If that happens, it'll be the biggest civilizational event in human history.

Speaker A: 如果发生那种情况,会怎么样?

Original English

Speaker A: What happens if that happens?

Speaker B: 嗯,首先,西欧会矛盾地变得非常冷。如果你看地图,米兰和蒙特利尔在同一条纬线上。但是因为这些洋流带来的热量,它被人为地保持着温暖。但更根本的是,你开始看到一种深刻的对比,当时南半球和北半球之间的这种对比开始产生能引发风暴的能力,那种风暴的暴力程度我们只能在电影中想象。一切都改变了。

Original English

Speaker B: Well, I mean, the first thing is that, you know, Western Europe suddenly gets paradoxically very cold. If you look at a map, Milan is on a latitude line with Montreal. Um, but it's kept artificially warm by the flow of heat coming up through these currents. But more fundamentally, you begin just a profound um that contrast between then the southern hemisphere and the northern hemisphere starts to produce the capacity for storms of a violence we only imagine in movies. Um, uh, everything changes.

气候运动的方向与困境

Speaker A: 所以我想我们现在已经确定有三种力量在同时发生。我们在气候变暖问题上走上了一条比我们自己之前想象的更糟糕的轨道。这是一方面。与此同时,气候技术、能源技术,不管你怎么称呼它,它的加速发展也比任何人敢于期望的要快。但接下来就有了这种中介力量,因为没有更好的词,我们称之为气候政治或能源政治。而这正是我认为存在许多沮丧情绪的地方。我有一种感觉,气候运动中的很多人并不太清楚下一步该怎么走,因为有一件我认为对各种运动来说都相当艰难的事情,我认为在奥巴马之后总体自由主义也发生过这种情况,随后遭遇了特朗普,那就是在取得非常高的成功水平之后(在这个案例中是《通胀削减法案》),结果几乎立即看到这一切在一种反弹政治中被抹杀,所有的那些牵引力似乎都被拉回去了。这会让运动感到有些支离破碎。所以我猜我会问……

Original English

Speaker A: So I think we've now set up that there are three forces happening simultaneously. So we are on a worse track on warming than we had even believed ourselves to be. So that's one piece. At the same time, climate tech, energy tech, whatever you want to call it, has also accelerated faster than anybody had dared hope. But then there is this kind of intermediary force which is climate politics or energy politics for lack of a better term. And that is where I think there is a lot of dispiritedness. I get this feeling that a lot of people in the climate movement don't quite know where to go next because something that I think is quite tough for movements, I think it happened to liberalism in general after Obama and when it then hit Trump is finding a very high level of success, right, the IRA in this case, only to then almost immediately see that undone in a kind of backlash politics, all of that traction kind of pulled back. It can leave movements a little bit shattered. So I I guess I'd ask the...

气候政治的反思与历史教训

Speaker A: 如果你说的情况以某种可怕的方式成为现实,也就是说那种旧的政治氛围再次卷土重来,那么我们能从中吸取什么教训呢?

Original English

Speaker A: What lessons are there to learn if if what you're saying is comes true in its own kind of horrible way, the kind of politics is going to come back,

Speaker B: 但是,既然我们刚刚经历了这一切——你知道的,这些起起落落——我们究竟学到了什么?如果你回顾一下气候问题的发展史,自1988年吉姆·汉森(Jim Hansen)在国会作证之后的最初35年里,世界基本上处于一种化石能源相对廉价而可再生能源相对昂贵的状态。因此,在很长一段时间里,气候运动及相关工作的大部分精力,本质上都不得不投入到让化石燃料变得更昂贵这件事情上。这就是为什么会出现碳税、碳定价等各种措施。这也正是为什么我们发起了一场庞大的撤资运动,其涉及的捐赠基金和投资组合规模已经达到了40万亿美元,开始逐渐撤出煤炭、天然气和石油领域。我们想要提高它们的资本成本。你知道,这些举措依然是重要的工作,但现在我们已经生活在一个清洁能源更加便宜的世界里了。这意味着经济引力的作用方向现在或多或少已经处于正确的轨道上。我认为,这也恰恰解释了为什么化石燃料行业会产生如此非同寻常的政治反弹。这就是为什么他们突然与特朗普以及……我是说,你要记得,在此之前,甚至连埃克森美孚(Exxon)这样的公司都一直在把气候变化作为一个真正的挑战来谈论,说我们会尽我们所能……但他们现在看到了未来,比如英国石油公司(BP)提出的“超越石油”(beyond petroleum)。

Original English

Speaker B: but having just lived through this, you know, the rise and the fall, what has been learned? If you think about the climate story, the first 35 years of it post Jim Hansen's testimony in Congress in 1988, those 35 years are spent in a world where fossil energy is relatively cheap and renewable energy is relatively expensive. So most of the work of much of the work of climate movements and things has to be devoted to in essence making fossil fuel more expensive. That's what carbon taxes and prices and things were. That's why we ran this giant divestment campaign that's reached $40 trillion in endowments and portfolios that began to get out of coal and gas and oil. We wanted to raise the cost of capital. Those things are remain important work, you know, but now we live in a world where clean energy is cheaper. That means that the forces of economic gravity are working in more or less the right direction now. And that explains, I think, why there's been the extraordinary political reaction from the fossil fuel industry that there's been. That's why they were suddenly so in bed with Trump and with the I mean because remember prior to this even the Exxons of the world had been talking about climate change as a real challenge and we will do what we they've now seen the future BP beyond petroleum.

清洁能源与全球经济的新格局

Speaker A: 未来的确是我们实际上可以超越石油。我们不再需要它了,并且我们正开始摒弃它。伊朗战争中最有趣的部分之一是,石油价格并没有像人们预期的那样飙升。你知道,油价最高也就达到了每桶130美元左右。这在很大程度上是因为,中国每天的石油消耗量比我们之前预测的要少大约500万桶。所以无论如何,某个聪明的民主党政客在某个时刻肯定会对民众说:“看看澳大利亚吧,他们正在使用免费的电力。他们拥有的阳光和风力资源并不比我们多,他们和我们生活在同一个地球上。如果我们有明智的能源政策,我们本来也能做到同样的事情。”我认为,这将会成为一个越来越具有诱惑力的论点,因为世界其他地区并没有在原地等待,他们正在采取行动,尤其是亚洲。而且你也知道,亚洲在很大程度上定义了人类,世界上60%的人口正在非常、非常快速地朝着这个方向发展。

Original English

Speaker A: The future is we actually can go beyond petroleum. We don't need it anymore and we're beginning to dispense with it. One of the most interesting parts of the Iran war has been that oil prices didn't get any higher than they did. Uh you know that the price of oil topped out at $130 a barrel. That's largely because the Chinese are using something like 5 million barrels a day less than we thought than they were projected to be using. So anyway, some clever Democratic politician at a certain point is going to say to people, "Look at Australia. They're getting free electricity. They don't have more sun and wind than we have. They live on the same planet that we do. we could be doing the same thing if we had a sensible energy policy and I think that that's going to become a ever more enticing argument because the rest of the world is not waiting around uh they are moving especially Asia and you know Asia more or less defines humanity It's 60% of the world are moving very very quickly in this direction.

Speaker B: 气候政治中最终被证明在政治上最困难的部分,往往是那些让人们觉得自己的自主权被剥夺的领域。比如在加利福尼亚州,哈维尔·贝塞拉(Xavier Becerra)很可能成为下一任州长。考虑到他之前说过的话以及目前的政治走向,我认为,你在加文·纽森(Gavin Newsom)政府下看到的那种逐步淘汰内燃机汽车的激进做法,不太可能会继续推进下去。我们之前也谈到过纽约州的凯西·霍楚尔(Kathy Hochul),她目前正在从一些重大的气候项目和目标中退缩。我从许多在气候问题上立场良好、且确实关心这个问题的政客那里听到的消息是,他们正在努力弄清楚一件事——我认为这也是《通货膨胀削减法案》(Inflation Reduction Act)试图达成的平衡——那就是,你是否能够通过给人们提供他们想要的东西(比如对热泵、太阳能等进行补贴)来足够快地推动转型,同时又避免做那些人们通常觉得在政治上更危险的事情,也就是那种让人们觉得你在从他们手中夺走什么东西的做法。你在剥夺他们的自主权,你在拿走他们喜欢的一种技术。你知道,尽管电动汽车(EV)很好,但人们仍然会有里程焦虑,或者他们会担心……你知道,他们只是对自己目前拥有的汽车有感情。人们渴望有多种选择,他们不想被别人告诉该怎么做。但与此同时,为了尽快达到我们需要达到的总体目标,很难说这一切都可以仅仅通过胡萝卜、政府补贴以及每个人都能认同的完美叙事来实现。

Original English

Speaker B: Some of the parts of climate politics that have ended up proving the most politically difficult are the places where people feel their autonomy is being taken away. So in California where it looks likely that Javier Bera is going to be the next governor, I think it is unlikely given things he has said and given where the politics have gone that the um the aggression on phasing out internal combustion engine cars that you saw under Gavin Newsome is going to move forward. We've talked about Kathy Hokll here in New York who's been shifting out of some of the sort of major climate projects and targets. Um the thing that I have heard from many politicians who who actually are good on this issue and do care about this issue, but is what they are trying to figure out and this is I think some of what the inflation reduction act the balance it was trying to strike was can you move the transition fast enough by giving people things that they want right subsidies for heat pumps and solar and so on without doing the things that I think they've people have often found are more politically dangerous which is people's feeling you're taking something from them. You're taking their autonomy. You're taking a technology they like. um you know people as good as EVs are people do people still have range anxiety or they worry about you know they just have attachment to cars they currently have that there's a lot of desire people have for options but they don't want to be told what to do and on the same time to get where we need to be as fast as we need to get there it is hard to say that that is all going to happen through carrots subsidies and stories that everybody can agree on.

美国的特殊困境与全球气候行动

Speaker A: 听着,首先让我们再次声明,我们这里主要只是在谈论美国的情况。

Original English

Speaker A: Look, let's first again stipulate that we're mostly just talking about the US here.

Speaker B: 嗯。

Original English

Speaker B: Mhm.

Speaker A: 目前美国的碳排放量约占全球总排放量的11%。所以,其他占89%的国家和地区的人们,都在某种程度上切实地采取行动。在这些国家,政策似乎在某些情况下更容易制定。要么是因为像中国这样,除了最高领导人之外,没有人能够轻易推翻政策;要么是因为他们只是在更强有力、更坚决地推进气候相关的工作。

Original English

Speaker A: Um, which now is about 11% of the global emissions on the planet. So the other 89% people are to one degree or another really working at. And these are countries where policy seems in some cases to be a little easier to uh figure out either because like China you don't no one gets a say except Xiinping or because they're just working more robustly.

Speaker B: 实际上,这是一个你应该知道答案的问题,而我在准备这次访谈时并没有去专门查阅。美国目前并没有走在它的……你知道的,比如《巴黎协定》等承诺的路径上。在其他国家,你是否看到他们对气候承诺有那种你在这里听不到的坚定忠诚度?因为我的理解是,他们其实做得也不是非常出色。

Original English

Speaker B: This is actually a question you would know the answer to that that I I didn't look at in prep for this. The US is not on its you know Paris pathway etc. Are other countries do you see a fidelity to climate promises there that you don't hear? cuz my understanding is they're not being great.

Speaker A: 嗯,你会看到许多国家现在正在创造各种基础设施和政策条件,这将使他们能够在未来更快、更彻底地进行转型。事实上,今天有新的数据分析显示,美国现在是世界上碳排放量仍在逆势增加的主要地区。

这简直令人难以置信。我是说,让我们把话说明白一点。美国已经向大气中排放了比其他任何国家都要多的二氧化碳,而且从来没有任何国家——包括中国——在历史上能够在这个数字上赶上我们。而这些过往排放的碳现在还全都在大气里。我的意思是,在20世纪70年代,当我刚拿到实习驾照时,我家的普利茅斯狂怒(Plymouth Fury)汽车排气管里排出的废气,现在仍然停留在大气层中,不断地吸收热量,加剧温室效应。好吗?所以,我们在这个问题上成为了一个异类,这真是令人难以置信的耻辱。特别是考虑到,是我们美国人最初发明了那些应对危机所必需的关键技术。

但我确实认为,用不了多久,就会有新一代的政客脱颖而出,他们懂得如何去有效地谈论并针对这个问题采取果断的行动。而且我认为,未来的政策可能更多的是采用胡萝卜(经济激励)而不是大棒(惩罚措施)的手段。但我认为真正会发生的质变是,每在屋顶上安装一块太阳能电池板,每开出一辆全新的电动汽车离开汽车展厅,每次有人因为意识到自己根本不需要开着一辆重达3000磅的金属铁皮去送孩子上学,从而从传统燃油汽车换成轻便的电动自行车时……每当这种微小的事情在全社会广泛发生,化石燃料行业的政治权力就会在潜移默化中递减。

总有一天,我们会达到这样一个历史性的临界点:他们庞大的政治权力将被彻底打破。当那一天到来时,我们在这个国家终于能够不受利益集团掣肘,就我们的选择以及我们究竟如何向前迈进展开一场更加理性和科学的讨论。我差不多把这看作是我们在“第三幕”(Third Act)组织的使命,以及我在其他地方所做工作的核心,那就是找出如何采取有效行动来打破那种根深蒂固的政治权力,因为这一直是阻碍气候行动的“黄金线索”——一条贯穿始终的阻力带。所以,你依然是这样认为的吗?即这里的核心阻碍仍然是化石燃料行业的政治权力,而不是为了完成刚才那个论点……

Original English

Speaker A: Well, you see you see a lot of countries that are um setting up the conditions now that are going to allow them to change much more quickly. And in fact, there's new data today showing that the US is the main place in the world where emissions are increasing now. Um which is just unbelievable. I mean, let's be clear. The US has already put more carbon in the atmosphere than anybody else, and no one, including China, is ever going to match us. Um, uh, historically, and it's all still up there. I mean, the stuff that came out of the tailpipe of my family's Plymouth Fury when I was getting my learner's permit in the 1970s is still up there in the atmosphere trapping heat. Okay? So it's unbelievably shameful that we're that we are the outlier here. Uh especially given that we invented the necessary technology. Um but I do think that it's not going to be a matter of much longer before politicians start emerging who understand the ways to talk about and act on this issue. And I think it is probably going to be more carrots than sticks. But I think the real thing that happens is that every time a solar panel goes up, every time an EV drives off the showroom, uh, every time someone switches to an ebike from a car because they figured out they don't need 3,000 pounds of sheet metal to get their kids to school. Um, every time that happens, the political power of the fossil fuel industry incrementally decreases. And we're going to come at some point to a place where their political power is broken. And when that happens, we will finally in this country be able to have a more rational discussion of what our choices are and how we move forward. I kind of take that as our work at Third Act and my work and whatever elsewhere is to figure out how to do the things that break that political power because it has been the golden thread of obstruction all the way along. So that so that is still the way you see it that the the core obstruction here is the political power of the fossil fuel industry not the preferences or resistance of of just to finish the the argument

Speaker B: 也就是选民们的偏好和来自民间的阻力?我是说那些可能内心深处不想做某些事情的普通选民,他们不想更换自家的老旧火炉,不想换掉自己开习惯了的传统燃油汽车,也不想被政府或者别的什么人告知,你知道的,他们长期以来的生活方式和使用能源的方式必须发生彻底的改变。

Original English

Speaker B: of voters who may not want to do some of the things who don't want to replace their furnace who don't want to replace their car who don't want to be told you know that that the way they're doing energy has to change

Speaker A: 毫无疑问,总是会有一些这样的阻力存在,但我并不认为那些问题有那么难以克服,也不认为它们是不可逾越的障碍。如果你能让人们去亲身体验——因为我已经亲手做过上百次了。如果我让我的邻居坐进一辆性能优越的电动汽车里并让他们试驾一圈,他们回来后往往会惊呼:“这太棒了。”你知道,如果我们请朋友们来家里吃晚饭,并向他们展示现代化的电磁炉,那种你在网上花60美元就能买到的经济实惠的电磁炉,你知道,它烧开水的速度实际上比你用传统的天然气燃气灶还要快得多。在体验过之后,很少有人会固执地说:“我必须在我的厨房里看到真实的明火才会觉得做饭开心。”人们是会适应并喜欢上更好的技术的。

Original English

Speaker A: there's always going to be some of that but I don't think those are that hard. If you get people I because I've done this a hundred times. If I put my neighbors in an EV and let them drive it, they're like, "This is great." You know, if we have people over for dinner and show them the induction cooktop, which you can buy for 60 bucks online, you know, and which boils water faster than you can boil it on a gas stove. Very few people are like, I must have an open flame in my kitchen to make me happy.

中国在可再生能源领域的崛起与西方的复杂心态

Speaker B: 在这次深刻的对话中,中国不可避免地被多次提及。我认为,美国左翼在看待和对待中国的方式上存在一种明显的张力和内在矛盾,尤其是在可再生能源这一关键领域。你可以设想存在这样一个平行世界:中国在应对气候变化上所做的一切被国际社会誉为拯救地球的英雄壮举,并且我们完全敞开胸怀对此表示欢迎。我们大量进口他们生产的廉价电动汽车,这些汽车不仅性能非常出色,而且价格比我们本土制造的要便宜得多,能够迅速惠及普通家庭。我们毫无保留地对他们在太阳能电池板生产以及其他形式的绿色能源基础设施方面如此迅速地推动世界向前发展表示由衷的赞赏和接纳……

Original English

Speaker B: China's come up a lot in this conversation and there's a tension in the way I think the left sees and treats China particularly on renewable energy. So you can imagine a world where what China has done is hailed as heroic and we embrace it. We import their cheap electric vehicles which work really well and are much cheaper than what we make. We embrace how rapidly they have pushed the world forward on solar energy and and other forms of uh green energy infrastructure and and

对华政策与绿色能源关税

Speaker A:我们实际上所做的——这要追溯到拜登政府时期,而不仅仅是特朗普政府——就是对其中许多产品征收关税,特别是针对电动汽车(EVs)。我们将中国在太阳能供应链上的主导地位或领先优势视为一种需要被梳理和防范的威胁,而不是一种应当去拥抱的全球性合作。这是一个错误吗?

Original English

Speaker A: What we've actually done and this goes back to the Biden administration not just Trump is tariff a lot of that particularly the EVs. We've treated China's dominance or primacy over the solar supply chain as a threat that needs to be combed, not as a kind of global cooperation to be embraced. Is that a mistake?

Speaker B:听着,我的意思是,这是完全可以理解的,例如,为什么我们要对来自中国的电动汽车征收关税。因为如果我们现在就让它们进来,我们的汽车工业就会在一夜之间完蛋。你现在只要花两万美元就能买到一辆非常棒的中国电动汽车。你知道,它和你见过的任何汽车一样优秀。所以,建立起一道关税壁垒以试图保护和留存我们的汽车工业,在逻辑上是说得通的。但毫无道理的是,在建立关税壁垒之后,却在壁垒背后保持一切原样、无所作为。建立关税壁垒的唯一理性理由,应该是在接下来的三年时间里,忙于通过激励措施去建立一个能够参与竞争的美国本土电动汽车工业。而且没有任何理由表明这做不到。我的意思是,事实上,要弄清楚如何制造这些汽车相对来说是比较容易的,因为它们的运动部件非常少。底特律完全有能力做到这一点,但我们只是……

Original English

Speaker B: Look, I mean, it's understandable, for instance, why we tariff EVs from China because if we let them in right now, our car industry would be over overnight. You can get a great Chinese EV for 20 grand now. You know, as good as any car you've ever seen. So, it made sense to erect a tariff wall to try and preserve our auto industry. What makes no sense is to erect the tariff wall and then behind it keep everything the same. The only rational reason for building the wall of tariffs would be to spend the next 3 years busily incentivizing and building an American EV industry that can compete. And there's no reason that it can't. I mean, in fact, these cars are actually relatively easy to figure out how to build because they have so few moving parts. Detroit's capable of this, but we're just...

Speaker A:现在在尝试中损失了大量的资金。

Original English

Speaker A: losing a lot of money trying it right now.

Speaker B:他们损失大量资金是因为我们改变了政策。对我们来说,这样做不存在任何技术障碍。这并不是说中国人掌握了某种我们还没想出来的、令人难以置信的技术洞见。

Original English

Speaker B: They lost a lot of money because we changed policy. There's no technological barrier to us doing. It's not like the Chinese have some, you know, incredible technological insight that we haven't come up with.

Speaker A:不,他们拥有我们所不具备的制造业生态系统。

Original English

Speaker A: No, they have manufacturing ecosystems that we don't have.

Speaker B:没错。他们付出了艰苦的努力才完成了这项工作。但我们完全有能力做到那一点。你知道,这其实正是《通胀削减法案》(IRA)当初所设想的。我的意思是,IRA——除了是美国历史上名字起得最糟糕的立法之一外——其实你本可以叫它,你知道的,“终于要追赶中国法案”,这个名字会清楚明白得多。

Original English

Speaker B: That's right. They've done that hard work to get that done. But we are completely capable of doing that. You know, that was really what the IRA envisioned. I mean, the IRA, among other things, one of the worst named pieces of legislation in American history, was really, you could have called it the, you know, trying to catch up to China Finally Act, and that would have been a much clearer name for it.

Speaker A:但这并没有完全回答其背后的问题,即我们与中国的关系应该是什么样的,对中国的定位又应该是什么?

Original English

Speaker A: But that doesn't quite answer the question behind it, which is what should the relationship, what should the orientation towards China be?

Speaker B:你看,现在的华盛顿,不仅是在特朗普治下,对民主党人来说也是如此,对中国的敌意水平切实存在着不断的上升。人们有一种感觉,我们已经陷入了一场深刻的竞争之中,以至于来自中国的科技进步不再受到赞誉,每一项进步都被视为一种新型的威胁。如果他们拥有了嵌入式的太阳能电池板,我们不仅不认为这是全球生态环境的一大福音,反而将其视为对美国供应链能力的一种危险。我认为这是一个巨大的错误。你知道,中国在制造太阳能电池板等方面拥有极其非凡的产能。因为这些东西变得如此便宜,他们现在正开始关停部分产能,试图稍微推高一点价格。但是,与其这样,不如去想象一个截然不同的世界:在这个世界里,我们决定将其作为优先事项,我们共同努力使这些工厂全球化,让它们全天候24小时不间断地运转,成千上万地生产太阳能电池板,把它们堆积在地球上每一个铁路侧线和码头上,告诉人们来把它们拿走,去建设他们自己的巴基斯坦。你知道,这样你就开始化解了这两个国家之间一些潜在的、非常危险的竞争。你把它做成了一个能帮助地球上其他地方的项目,通过这种方式你可以弄清楚如何去分享功劳。而我们的另一个选项是,继续居住在一个我们与这些家伙持续竞争的地球上,甚至在海平面在我们周围不断上升的时候依然如此。我认为这是一个显而易见的选择。我必须要说……

Original English

Speaker B: Look, in Washington right now, not just under Trump, but this is true for Democrats, there's been a real rising level of antagonism towards China, a sense that we are locked in a profound competition and such that advances that come from China are not celebrated. Each one is a new kind of threat. If they've got embedded solar panels, instead of that being a boon for the global environmental ecosystem, we treat that as a danger to American supply chain capacities. I think that's a huge mistake. You know, China has extraordinary capacity to build, say, solar panels. They're now shutting in some of that capacity to try and drive the price up a little bit because this stuff got so cheap. But instead, imagine a world where we just decide this is going to be a priority and we work together to globalize those factories, run them 24/7, turn out solar panels by the gazillion, stack them on every railroad sighting and wharf on planet earth and tell people to come take them away and make their own Pakistans. you know, you have begun to diffuse some of the potentially very dangerous competition between these two countries. You've done it in a project that helps the rest of the planet in ways that you can figure out how to share the credit for. And the other option is to inhabit an earth where we continue in competition with these guys even as the sea level rises around us. I think it's a no-brainer. I got to say...

能源部署与输电线路问题

Speaker A:这里既存在掌握技术的问题,也存在部署技术的问题。所以即使在特朗普上台之前,你也能看到这个问题正开始影响 IRA 的顺利推行,其中之一就是我们很难建造大量亟需建设的设施。太阳能的推广曾经进展得非常非常顺利。相比之下,风力涡轮机就比较困难了。大量的风电部署未能达到模型预测者的预期。而我们面临的另一个重大问题是输电线路。所以你建了一个大型太阳能阵列或风电场,你必须把这些能源从发电地输送到需要它的目的地。我们看到州际输电线路的建设出现了下滑。曾经有一项努力……这就像是曼钦(Manchin)妥协法案中的一项附加条款,进步派反对并协助否决了它。它既包含了接受一条大型天然气管道,也包含了对州际输电线路选址方式进行相当大的改革,但这最终没有获得通过。于是输电线路问题就这样不断恶化、长期溃烂。我们虽然拥有技术,但我们必须去建造并输送它,而这有时可能不像仅仅畅想太阳能电池板那样具有吸引力。我们在那方面需要做什么?

Original English

Speaker A: there is both the question of having the technology and this question of deploying the technology. So even before Trump, you have this problem is beginning to affect the roll out of the IRA, which is one, it is hard to build a lot of what needs to be built. So the solar roll out was going really, really well. Wind turbines were tougher. A lot of wind was undershooting the expectations of modelers. And the other big problem we're facing is transmission lines. So you build a big solar array or wind farm, you've got to get that energy from where it's generated to where it's going. We've seen the construction of interstate transmission lines fall. There was an effort... this was like the big Manchin compromise side car that progressives fought and helped kill. It had both the acceptance of a large natural gas pipeline but also would have had pretty big reforms on how you site interstate transmission lines that didn't pass. And so the transmission lines problem has just kind of festered. We have the technology but we have to build and move it in a way that is less sexy than sometimes just thinking about the solar panels can be. What do we need to do there?

Speaker B:所以,有这么几件事。首先,拜登政府深深致力于建设这些基础设施,而且他们实际上正在完成大量切实的工作。他们在白宫设立了一个专门的团队,负责引导每一个输电项目顺利通过各种审批环节和障碍,这是一项至关重要的工作。令人难过的是,这一切现在已经不复存在了。显然,特朗普政府不会允许任何此类事情发生。他们已经在各个层面全面关停了它。但目前在这个领域还有一些技术上的辅助手段。我们实际上已经弄清楚了,仅仅通过更换悬挂在那些电线杆上的电线材质,我们就可以或多或少地将许多输电线路的电流承载量增加一倍。而且这几乎不会带来任何审批上的麻烦。这在很多地方正开始成为现实。人们也确实开始学习如何使用电池系统在某种程度上使能源孤岛化,并或许能借此减少部分并网需求。但人们也想出了一些更加奇特的替代方案。现在在这个国家的一些地方,靠近大型太阳能设施的人们正在火车车厢后面为庞大的电池组充电,然后把它们通过铁路运到最近的大都市区,你知道,就这么来回穿梭,不断往返以提供电力。归根结底,当我们在华盛顿恢复某种理智的政治环境时,我们需要在这里找到某种明确的前进道路,弄清楚具体该怎么做。而这项交易将如何构建,正如一直以来的规律那样,将取决于相互竞争的政治力量之间的力量对比。

Original English

Speaker B: So, a few things. One, the Biden administration was deeply committed to building this stuff, and they were actually getting a lot of it done. They had in the White House a team of people who were shepherding each one of these transmission projects through its various hoops and that was important work. And it was sad that it's disappeared. Obviously, the Trump administration is not going to allow any of this. They've shut it down everywhere. But there are a few for the moment technological aids here. We've actually figured out how we can more or less double the flow of electricity across a lot of transmission lines just by changing the wire that hangs from those poles. And that presents very few permitting problems. And it's beginning to happen in lots of places. It's also true that people are starting to learn how to use batteries to island energy as it were and perhaps reduce some of it. But people are also coming up with other workarounds that are stranger. There are parts of the country now where people are near big solar installations filling batteries on the backs of train cars and then rolling them to the nearest metro area to back and forth, back and forth to provide power. In the end, when we have some kind of sane politics back in Washington, there's going to need to be some kind of way forward here where we figure out how to do this. And how that deal gets structured will depend on, as it always does, the strength of the competing political forces.

审批改革与气候行动的未来

Speaker A:好吧,我想问你,你认为这个交易应该是什么样的。是的。我的意思是,我刚才提出输电线路问题的原因之一是,这一切都往往被宽泛地归入“审批改革”(permitting reform)这个笼统的词汇之下。我认为,审批改革通常首先被人们理解为一种偏向右翼的诉求,然后有时又像是一个两党妥协和交易的空间。但我实际上没怎么看到气候运动人士和更广泛的左翼人士站出来说:“这就是我认为它应该有的样子。这就是我对于审批改革的优先事项。”

Original English

Speaker A: Well, I want to ask you what that deal should be. Yeah. I mean, one of the reasons I'm bringing up transmission lines is that this all gets sort of bucketed under this term permitting reform. Permitting reform is, I think, generally understood as first like a right of center thing and then sometimes it's like a bipartisan deal making space. What I've actually not seen that much of is people in the climate movement and the broader left saying this is what I think it should look like. Like this is my priority for permitting reform.

Speaker B:因此,在一个理性的世界里,在一个理性的国家里,你会拥有一个优先考虑清洁能源而不是肮脏化石能源的审批改革或审批系统。在这个国家里,已经没有任何充分的理由去继续建造天然气管道了。但在我们所处的现实政治世界中,在化石石油工业与理智之间,可能必须达成某种妥协。因此,与此同时,我们能做的还有很多。“第三幕”(Third Act)是几年前我和其他几个人共同发起的一场社会运动,旨在组织像我这样的老年人,组织60岁以上的人为气候变化和民主体制采取切实行动。我会告诉你过去10个月左右我们一直在做些什么。第一,推动各个州让普通人更容易在自家屋顶上安装太阳能电池板。美国人为家庭太阳能系统支付的费用是欧洲人或澳大利亚人的三到五倍。这并不是因为太阳能面板本身的成本。即使算上关税,成本的影响也是微乎其微的。而是因为我们这里的官僚主义实在太严重了。每个司法管辖区——美国有多达15,000个这样的司法管辖区——每个城镇、每个县都有自己独立的分区法规,有自己专门的检查员团队。他们想要,你知道,他们想要亲自爬到屋顶上,还要求你把详细的图纸发送给他们审查。世界其他地方根本不是这样运作的。在世界其他地方,买一块太阳能电池板就像买一台冰箱一样简单。你星期一给销售人员打电话,到了星期三,他就在……

Original English

Speaker B: So in a rational world, rational country, you'd have a permitting reform or permitting system that prioritized clean energy over dirty energy. There's no good reason to be building gas pipelines anymore in this country. In the political world in which we live, there's probably some compromise that has to be reached there between the oil industry and sanity. So, in the meantime, there's a lot that we can do. Third Act is this movement that I and a few others started a few years ago to organize old people like me, people over the age of 60 for action on climate and democracy. And I'll tell you what we've been doing for the last 10 months or so. One, getting states to make it much easier for people to put solar panels on their roofs. Americans pay three to five times as much as Europeans or Australians for a home solar system. Not because of the cost of the panels. Even with tariffs, it's de minimis. It's because we have way too much bureaucracy here. Every jurisdiction, and there are 15,000 of them in the United States, every town, every county has its own zoning code, its own team of inspectors. They want to climb up on the roof and they want you to send them diagrams. And this is not how it works in the rest of the world. In the rest of the world, buying a solar panel is like buying a refrigerator. You call up a guy Monday, by Wednesday, he's up on...

太阳能审批与阳台光伏

Author: ……这就是为什么澳大利亚有 40% 的家庭安装了太阳能电池板。如果你像那样快速推进,成本就会变得非常低。现在有一款专门针对这个的应用程序。美国国家可再生能源实验室 (National Renewable Energy Lab) 在被上届政府破坏之前,开发了一款名为 SolarAPP+ 的应用程序。这是一个即时审批应用程序。你输入想要安装太阳能电池板的房屋地址,以及你打算安装的设备类型。如果电脑审核通过,它就会为你打印出许可证。然后你就可以上屋顶开始工作了。我们已经成功地在很多地方推动了这项立法的实施。现在,更引人注目的是(尽管在数量上没那么大),“第三行动” (Third Act) 和其他几个组织在过去 8 个月里成功推动了我们称之为“阳台太阳能”或“即插即用太阳能”的项目。如果你在过去 5 年去过欧洲,你可能甚至都没有注意到,但已经有 500 万欧洲人花了大概几百块钱,把一块太阳能电池板带回家。这种电池板不是设计用来安装在屋顶上的,而是用扎带固定在你公寓阳台的栏杆上。电池板背面有一个插头,你把它插进墙上的插座就可以了。不需要电工。它产生的电力通常能占到一个公寓用电量的 20%。所以,这虽然不能解决所有问题,但也绝不是毫无用处。嗯,直到今年春天,这在美国几乎所有地方都还是非法的。而在过去的 12 到 14 周里,我们已经成功地在 10 个州获得了授权。这不会改变一切,但到明年,廉价太阳能电池板将会有一个很大的市场,公寓租户也可以使用。

Original English

Author: ...why 40% of homes in Australia have solar panels. That makes it very cheap if you go fast like that. There's an app for this. The National Renewable Energy Lab before it was trashed by the administration produced uh what's called uh Solar App Plus. It's an instant permitting app. You type in the address of the house you want to put it on, the kind of equipment that you're going to put up there. If the computer likes it, it prints you out a permit. You're up on the roof ready to go to work. We've managed to get that legislation going in a bunch of places. Now, even more striking, though less numerically significant is what Third Act and a few others managed to do over that 8 months with what we're calling balcony solar or plug-in solar. If you've been to Europe in the last 5 years, you have maybe not even noticed, but 5 million Europeans have paid a few hundred and come home with a solar panel designed not to go on the roof, but to be zip tied to the railing of your apartment balcony. On the back is a plug, which you plug into the wall. No electrician required. Produces often 20% of the power an apartment uses. So, not everything, but not nothing either. Um, this was illegal in the US pretty much everywhere until this spring. And in the last 12 weeks or 14 weeks, we've managed to get now 10 states where we've authorized this. It's not going to change everything, but by next year, there'll be a big market for cheap solar panels that you can apartment renters can use.

Podcast Host: 我印象中欧洲可不是一个低监管、少官僚主义的地方。

Original English

Podcast Host: I don't think of Europe as a low regulation, low bureaucracy.

Author: 那些德国人在遵守规则方面可是非常随意的。(反语)

Original English

Author: Those Germans very loosey goosey with the rules.

Podcast Host: 那么,为什么在那里推广太阳能电池板比在这里容易呢?这背后的原因是什么?

Original English

Podcast Host: So why has it been easier to do solar panels there than here? What's behind that?

Author: 我认为他们受到的来自化石燃料行业和公用事业游说集团的阻力较小。你知道,在过去的几个月里,我有几次在听你的播客,我很喜欢我听到的内容,但有时我也想冲着(节目)大喊,你知道,不,你对一位谈论 MAGA 运动中的厌女症等问题的女士进行了一次非常棒的采访,但这随后演变成了一场关于美学、政治美学及其表现形式的非常有趣的讨论。在未来的岁月里,一种进步的政治美学将不会是科林斯式圆柱与多立克式圆柱之间的对决。什么?我都记不清那个... 它将会是太阳能朋克 (solar punk)。它将会是——你见过我那本书的封面。

Original English

Author: I I think that they've had less power from the fossil fuel industry and the utility lobby. You know, there have been a couple of times in the last uh uh few months when I've been listening to the your podcast and I've been loving what I'm hearing, but I've also been wanting to like shout at the you know, no, you did this great interview with this woman who was talking about sort of the misogyny of the mega movement and things, but it evolved into a really interesting discussion of aesthetics and political aesthetics and what they look like. One of the things that a kind of progressive political aesthetic is going to look like in the years ahead is not going to be like Corinthian columns versus Dorian. What? I can't even remember what the It's going to be solar punk. It's going to be You've seen the cover of my book.

太阳能朋克美学与技术

Podcast Host: 到处都是太阳能电池板。完全正确。是的。那将会非常美丽。还有——

Original English

Podcast Host: Solar panels everywhere. Exactly. Right. It's going to be beautiful. There's also

Podcast Host: 好吧,稍等一下。我想在这里暂停一下,因为这是我非常感兴趣的话题。我同意,美学是政治的核心。我也同意,左翼自然应该转向的美学是太阳能朋克。而且我可以告诉你,有很大一部分左翼人士对书中那种技术性的、太阳能朋克的美学产生了出于本能的负面反应,他们不喜欢看到(天上的)卫星。他们认为太阳能电池板很难看。我认为左翼可以在其中找到乐观主义、美学,以及对人类卓越、雄心和独创性的一种赞赏的自然空间之一,就是围绕这种……围绕这种未来主义的集合,但我认为人们把它和埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 联系在了一起。

Original English

Podcast Host: Okay, hold on. I want to hold here because this is something that I have a lot of uh interest in. I agree. Aesthetics central to politics. I also agree that the natural aesthetic for the left to move to is solar punk. And I can tell you that a huge number of people on the left had a viscerally negative reaction to the techno solar punk aesthetic of the book that they don't like seeing the satellites there. They think solar panels are ugly. One of the sort of natural spaces I think that the left could find both optimism and aesthetics and a kind of appreciation for human excellence and ambition and ingenuity is is around this kind of basket of um you this basket of futurism but I think people associate it with Elon Musk.

Author: 他们把它和硅谷联系在了一起。

Original English

Author: They associate it with Silicon Valley.

Podcast Host: 所以我们需要开始建立一些其他的关联。

Original English

Podcast Host: So we need to start some other associations.

农业光伏与生态修复

Author: 左翼和技术之间存在着一种复杂的关系。所以,这里有一些思考这个问题的方法。正如我所说,我一生都生活在美国农村。嗯,所以在我的(家乡),人们有时会说的一件事是:我们不想把农田用在这个上面。好吧。那么首先,你只需要开始讨论这意味着什么。目前,我们将大量的农田用于能源生产。玉米是美国最大的农作物。我们种植了大约 9500 万英亩的玉米。其中大概 3000 万英亩被我们用来生产乙醇,这简直蠢透了。这 3000 万英亩土地生产的能源大约只占美国消耗总能源的 3%。如果我们把同样的 3000 万英亩土地铺满太阳能电池板,我们将能生产出接近我们目前使用能源的 100%。光合作用是一个奇迹,但它的效率不如光伏系统。嗯,你肯定不想把印第安纳州和爱荷华州从头到尾都铺满太阳能电池板。我们有很多屋顶和停车场,但我们可以使用一部分土地来做这件事。没有人说要使用超过百分之一或百分之二的土地。而且这是一种非常好的“农作物”。清洁的电子比玉米糖浆有用得多。你知道,我们需要更多这样的东西。一旦你开始了这段对话,你就可以接着说几点。嗯,这种“农作物”的一个优点是,你不需要在太阳能电池板上倾倒氮肥和磷肥来让它们工作。那些东西被冲进密西西比河,流入墨西哥湾,并在墨西哥湾形成了一个巨大的缺氧死水区。而且,你还能剩下半块田地用来做其他事情。它现在有了一个听起来笨拙的名字,叫“农业光伏” (agrivoltaics)。但这实际上是我们这个星球上很长一段时间以来为人类独创性提供的最大的一块新画布。人们正在利用它做一些令人着迷的事情。事实证明,在一个不断变暖的世界里,有很多事物会喜欢一些阴凉。其中之一就是沙漠,当你保留了稍微多一点的水分时,沙漠里的地衣结皮和生物结皮就有可能重新形成并生长,从而固定住沙子。这是中国人第一次在阻止困扰中国北方的巨大沙尘暴方面取得了一些成功。但是你还可以做很多其他的事情。在我居住的佛蒙特州,我们对许多太阳能农场采取的措施之一,是在光伏板行间套种吸引本地传粉昆虫的野花和杂草。其数量是惊人的。你发现的这些昆虫数量是之前那里农田里的 10 倍。这意味着什么?这意味着周围的农场和果园在授粉和坐果率上有了大幅增加。人类的独创性能够利用这些东西并将它们变得美丽。这就是我谈论美学时的意思。我们只需要开始允许人们以不同的方式来想象这些东西。而这部分意味着,你知道,允许他们明白它可以归社区所有,它不必只归公用事业公司所有。我们可以在全国各地混合部署这种类型的项目。

Original English

Author: There's a complicated relationship between the left and technology. So here's a here's some ways to start thinking about that. As I say, I've lived my life in rural America. Um, so one of the things that people sometimes say in my we don't want to use farmland for this. Okay. Um, so first you start just by kind of talking about what that means. Um, at the moment we use a huge amount of our farmland for energy. Corn is the biggest crop in America. We grow something like 95 million acres of it. 30 million of those more or less we use for ethanol, which is incredibly stupid. That 30 million acres produces something like 3% of all the energy that America uses. If we covered that same 30 million acres with solar panels, we'd produce pretty close to a 100% of the energy we currently use. Photosynthesis is a miracle, but it's not as efficient as the photovoltaic system. Um, you don't want to cover Indiana and Iowa stem to stern in solar panels. We've got lots of rooftops and parking lots, but we can use some of our land for this. No one's talking about more than a percent or two of our land. And it's a very good crop to be growing. Clean electrons is way more useful than corn syrup. You know, we need more of it. And once you start this conversation, you can go on to say a couple of things. Uh, one of the virtues of this crop is you don't need to pour nitrogen and phosphorus on solar panels to make them work. The stuff that washes down the Mississippi River into the Gulf of Mexico and forms this giant uh anoxic dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico. Um, and you're left with half the field to do something else with. It's now traveling under the clunky name of agravaics. But this is actually the biggest new canvas for human ingenuity that we've had in a very long time on this planet. And people are doing fascinating things with it. Turns out that on an overheating world, there are a lot of things that would like some shade. One of those things are deserts where it's able to as you retain a little bit more moisture, it's possible for that crust and the biotic crust in the desert to reform and grow, holding sand in place. This is the first place the Chinese are having some luck stopping the giant sandstorms that have plagued north northern China. But you can do lots of other things. In Vermont, where I live, one of the things that we've done with a lot of solar farms is interplant the rose with wild flowers and weeds that are attractive to native pollinators. And the numbers are astonishing. You find 10 times more of these insects than you did in the farm field that was there before. And what does that mean? It means that the surrounding farms and orchards see a big increase in pollination and in fruit set. uh human ingenuity can take these things and make them beautiful. That's when I talk about aesthetic. Uh we just need to start allowing people to picture this stuff in different ways. And part of that means, you know, allowing them to understand that it can be owned by communities, uh that it doesn't have to be owned by just utilities. We can have a real mix of this kind of stuff around the country.

阳光的神圣意义与新可能

Podcast Host: 在这场对话以及你的工作中,我发现一个很有意思的维度,那就是这种正在浮现的新叙事:是的,虽然有一场可怕的灾难正在酝酿并且正在发生,但同时,也有一种解决它的方法,这种方法正引领我们走向一个更美好的未来——不仅仅是因为灾难的消除,更是因为新可能性的出现。

Original English

Podcast Host: One of the dimensions I find interesting in this conversation and in your work is this sort of news story that's emerging that yes like there is this terrible calamity building and currently unfolding and also there is this way to solve it that is moving through towards a future that is better not just because of the absence of catastrophe but because of the presence of new possibilities.

Author: 绝对如此。我们不知道史前人类是如何看待这个世界的。由于是史前时期,他们没能把它记录下来。但我们知道,他们建造的每一堆石头,任何像巨石阵一样的东西,都指向春分、秋分或夏至、冬至。我们知道,当我们开始在这个星球上创造神话的那一刻,一个又一个文明,人们首先必须解释的就是,这个东西怎么会在早上从这边升起,晚上从那边落下,然后第二天早上又回到这边。太阳是我们宇宙角落里最具魅力的天体。

Original English

Author: Absolutely. Um, we don't know how prehistoric people thought about the world. Being prehistoric, they failed to write it down. But we know that every pile of rocks that they built, anything like Stonehenge, pointed to the equinox or the solstice. We know that the minute we started making myths on this planet uh culture after culture, the very first thing people had to explain was how does this thing rise over here in the morning, set over here in the evening and get back over here next morning. The sun is the most charismatic object in our corner of the universe.

Podcast Host: 《圣经》里,“要有光”是放在第一位的。

Original English

Podcast Host: The Bible, let there be light comes first.

Author: 完全正确。是的。实际上,这是这个故事很好的一个切入点。去年九月我在罗马。新任教皇召集了一群人开了一次有点像会议的活动,以纪念方济各关于气候变化的伟大通谕《愿祢受赞颂》(Laudato Si')发表 10 周年。当他发表演讲时,他谈到了他们将如何继续方济各在气候方面的工作,讲了很多关于对造物的管理保护的好内容。然后他几乎是顺便补充了一句,你知道,今年晚些时候,我们将启用我们在罗马郊外新建的大型太阳能农场,届时显然梵蒂冈城将……

Original English

Author: Exactly. Right. Actually, that's a good place to go with this story. I was in Rome last September. The new pope summoned over a bunch of people for a um a kind of conference to mark the 10th anniversary of Francis's great encyclical on climate change, leado. And when he gave his talk, he talked about how uh they were going to keep going with Francis's work on climate, a lot of good stuff about stewardship and creation. And almost in passing, he adds, uh, and you know, sometime this year, we're flipping the switch on our big new solar farm outside Rome, at which point apparently Vatican City will

能源来自天堂,而非地狱

Bill McKibben: 成为地球上第一个完全由太阳能供电的国家。所以当轮到我发言时,我说,您说得太棒了,尊者。这不仅为我们提供了一种技术上的希望,这非常美好。而且为我们今后的运作提供了一种箴言,你知道,让我们继续说“能源来自天堂,而不是地狱”。我认为这很容易被大众接受。我认为人们会越来越对一种可能性感到着迷,那就是在未来我们能以全新的方式让这个星球运转起来。

Original English

Bill McKibben: become the first fully solar powered nation on Earth. Um, so when I my turn to talk, I said, you know, uh, uh, uh, that was excellent, your holiness. Um and it provides us not only with a kind of technological hope. It's very nice. But a a kind of mantra under which to operate henceforth uh you know let's just keep saying energy from heaven not from hell. I think this is an easy cell. Um, I I I think that people are going to get more and more and more intrigued with the possibility that we're going to be able to run the planet on new terms going forward. Um, um,

Ezra: 我不想让你在这里显得如此乐观。我甚至不认为这会是——

Original English

Ezra: I don't want to let you be quite this optimistic here. I don't I don't think I don't even think I don't think it's

Bill McKibben: 强烈的悲观也是如此。

Original English

Bill McKibben: great pessimism, too.

Ezra: 就是这样。我不认为甚至连你也会觉得,这会像你刚才描述的那样容易推销。所以当你在外边进行环保活动时,你听到有人说:“听着,我相信气候变化。我不喜欢它。我不希望它发生。但是能源已经太贵了,而且我看到过很多事情失败,我担心民主党人只关心企鹅,而不关心我的生活。” 你怎么看?你会说什么?你认为一个政治领袖应该怎么说?

Original English

Ezra: There you go. I don't think even you think it's as easy a cell as you're as you're describing there. So when you're out there doing your activism and you hear from someone who says, "Look, I believe in climate change. I don't like it. I don't want it. But energy is already too expensive and I've seen a lot of things fail and I'm worried Democrats are worried about the penguins and not about my life." What do you think? What do you say? What do you think a political leader should say?

Bill McKibben: 好吧,我会告诉你我怎么说,就像这样。我会给你看我的电费账单。你很快就会发现,我付的电费比你少得多,因为我屋顶上装太阳能板已经很久了。我会向你展示我的房子或我的车或其他东西是如何运转的,你会发现这一切一点也不奇怪、不陌生、也不离奇。我认为,如果哪位政治家能开始弄清楚如何去证明这一点,他就会发现一座充满政治能量的“金矿”去挖掘,因为这能让我们跨越近几十年来政治陷入僵局和停滞的某些困境。共和党人发现自己讨厌清洁能源,这仅仅是因为在20年前,石油工业决定收买共和党,并且他们成功了,由此引发了一系列的事情。但这并没有必然发生的原因,恰恰相反。我实际上认为,美国政治的下一位伟大领袖,将会是开始弄清楚如何唤起我们人性中更好的一面的人。并非不诉诸于我们自身的需求,而是以一种我们以前从未听过的不同语调。这就是为什么我对这座城市的市长 Mumani 先生很感兴趣。倒不是因为他的政策,而是他有能力弄清楚如何开始让人们对未来感到兴趣和兴奋。所以,我认为人们会从经济角度论证我们可以走向何方等等,但我也认为有人会开始抓住这个想法:地球现在在很长一段时间内首次迎来了一个值得去努力的集体项目。这个项目就是地球的快速电气化,这不仅会对世界各地的人们带来巨大的好处,也将有利于我们未来的气候。我不认为这些事情是无法想象的。我一直认为,在所有激发了 1970 年第一个地球日的那些力量中——那仍然是美国历史上最大规模的政治示威,当时美国总人口的 10% 走上了街头。圣巴巴拉的漏油事件、凯霍加河污染,以及起火的景象是关键因素。但我认为最重要的事情,是从阿波罗8号传回来的那些照片,照片展示了我们的星球漂浮在太空中。我认为有人将会重新找回那种能量和那种希望,并在不再有任何技术或经济障碍阻挡我们的今天,利用它去成就伟大的事业。

Original English

Bill McKibben: Well, I mean, I'll tell you what I say, which is here. I'll show you my electric bills. Um, and you'll quickly figure out that I'm paying a lot less than you are for power cuz I've had solar panels on my roof for a long time. I I'll show you how my house or my car or whatever works and you'll see that there's nothing strange, foreign, weird about it. Um, I think that the politician who starts figuring out how to make that case will will find a kind of um motherload of political new political energy to uh uh uh mine because it moves us past some of the places where our politics has gotten so hung up and stuck in recent decades. The fact that Republicans find themselves hating clean energy is just a function of the fact that 20 years ago the oil industry decided to purchase the Republican party, you know, and did so successfully and that set up a whole series of things. But there's no intrinsic reason for that to happen. Just the opposite. I actually think that the next great leader in American politics is is going to be someone who starts figuring out how to appeal to our better angels. Not without an appeal to our own, you know, needs, uh, but in a different register than we've heard before. That's what, for instance, interests me about the mayor of this city, Mr. Mumani. not so much his policies, but his ability to figure out how to start making people feel interested, excited going forward. So, I think that people will make the economic argument about where we can go and so on, but I also think that they're going to someone's going to start seizing on the idea that the planet now has a um for the first time in a long time a group project to work on. And that project is the rapid electrification of this planet which would have huge advantages for uh uh people around the world and for our climate future. And I don't think those things are impossible to imagine. I've always thought that of all the forces that animated the first Earth Day in 1970, which remains the biggest political demonstration in American history, 10% of the then population of the US in the streets. The oil spill in Santa Barbara and the Kyhoga River and things catching on fire were key to that. But I think the most important thing were the pictures that had come back from Apollo 8 which showed our planet floating out there in space. I think someone's going to recapture some of that energy and some of that hope and do great things with it now that there's no longer any technological or economic obstacle in the way.

推荐书籍

Ezra: 作为最后一个问题,这是个很好的收尾。你有什么书推荐给听众吗?

Original English

Ezra: It's a good place to end as a final question. What are a few books you recommend to the audience?

Bill McKibben: 今年春天有两本书我很喜欢。特里·坦佩斯特·威廉姆斯(Terry Tempest Williams),伟大的自然散文家,写了一本叫《The Glorian》的书,还有丽贝卡·索尔尼特(Rebecca Solnit),可以说是我们现在最优秀的政治散文家,她写了一本《The Beginning Comes After the End》。但正如约翰逊博士曾经说过的那样:“人类心灵的自然飞翔,不是从一种快乐到另一种快乐,而是从一种希望到另一种希望。” 今年秋天有三本书即将出版,我已经有幸读了样张,我认为它们非常关键。莉亚·斯托克斯(Leah Stokes),她或许是我们国内顶尖的公用事业专家,在推动《降低通胀法案》(IRA)通过方面发挥了巨大作用。她在一本名为《The Carbon Wave》的书里讲述了那个故事。它不仅是一部很棒的内部政治记录,也是一个动人的故事,因为她的大部分《降低通胀法案》相关的写作,都是在新生儿重症监护室陪着她刚出生的双胞胎时完成的。艾米·韦斯特维尔特(Amy Westervelt),一位非常出色的自由记者,在气候、能源问题以及更广泛的领域做了大量报道。她的新书《Brought to You by How Corporations Have Warped the Truth》讲述了一个我们今天未能真正涉及的故事,那就是石油工业在过去40年里是如何竭尽全力破坏我们的信息系统的。第一个弥天大谎——它也为后来充斥于我们政治中的许多谎言设定了模板——那就是他们谎称物理学是不真实的,我们不需要去理会它。最后一本书是由阿斯特拉·泰勒(Astra Taylor)和娜奥米·克莱恩(Naomi Klein)合著的,今年早些时候你对娜奥米进行了一次非常难忘的采访,我认为娜奥米是世界上左翼最杰出的大脑。他们合著了一本新书,名为《End Times Fascism and the Fight for a Living World》。这本书将在秋季出版,我认为它将为进步人士在面对我们现在所处的困境时,提供某种行动手册。

Original English

Bill McKibben: There were two books this spring that I really enjoyed. Terry Tempest Williams, great nature essaist, a book called The Glorian, and Rebecca Soulnet, Poundforpound, maybe our best political essayist, and her book, The Beginning Comes After the End. But because, as Dr. Johnson, I think, once said, "The natural flight of the human mind is not from pleasure to pleasure, but from hope to hope." There are three books that are coming out this fall that I've gotten to read the galls of that I think are crucial. Leah Stokes, um, uh, maybe our leading expert on utilities, played a huge role in getting the IRA through, and she tells that story in a book called The Carbon Wave. Uh it's a great kind of insider political account and it's also a beautiful story because she was writing much of the IRA while she was in the neonatal intensive care unit with her newborn twins. Amy Westervelt, tremendous uh freelance reporter on a lot of climate and energy issues and on larger things. a new book called Brought to You by How Corporations Have Warped the Truth that tells the story that we didn't really get in here to today, but just how the oil industry has spent the last 40 years doing its level best to destroy our information system. The first big lie and the one that really set the template for so many of the lies that mark our politics was the lie that physics wasn't real and we didn't have to pay attention to it. final book uh from Astra Taylor and Naomi Klene who you had on for a very memorable interview earlier this year and who I think is I think Naomi is the finest mind on the left in the world. Um they have together a new book called End Times Fascism and the Fight for a Living World. Uh that's coming out in the fall and that I think will be a kind of playbook for a lot of how progressives respond to the fix we find ourselves in.

Ezra: 比尔·麦基本,非常感谢你。

Original English

Ezra: Bill McKibben, thank you very much.

Bill McKibben: 谢谢你,埃兹拉。非常感谢。

Original English

Bill McKibben: Thank you, Ezra. Very much

关键字: climate-change energy-transition political-policy economic-incentives geopolitical-tension