肯塔基州：贸易战的意外前线

Bloomberg白宫记者乔什·温德罗夫几周前前往肯塔基州首府，与州长安迪·贝希尔进行了会面。

Bloomberg White House reporter Josh Windgrove took a trip down to the Kentucky State Capital a few weeks ago to sit down with Governor Andy Basher.

他们见面的地点是贝希尔办公室内的旧州长官邸，那里充满了肯塔基州特色。贝希尔有一瓶印有他狗头像的波本威士忌（据我所知是密封的，我们没能打开），还有一个印有他自己头像的肯德基炸鸡桶，显然他很懂得利用品牌效应。

They met inside the old governor's mansion in Basher's office, which featured some very Kentucky touches. He has a bottle of bourbon with his dog's face on it, sealed, I should note. We did not get to crack that. But he also has a KFC bucket with his own face on it, so, leaning into the brand a little bit.

波本威士忌、蓝草音乐和肯德基炸鸡只是肯塔基州最著名的几项“出口品”。但乔什指出，肯塔基州的经济远不止这些。这个曾经的煤炭生产中心，如今也是一个汽车制造业的巨头、一个航空航天枢纽，以及全国最主要的进口州之一。

Bourbon and bluegrass music and Kentucky Fried Chicken are just a few of Kentucky's most famous exports. But Josh says there's a lot more to Kentucky's economy than that. The one-time coal producing center is also an auto-manufacturing juggernaut, an aerospace hub, and one of the country's most prolific importers.

肯塔基州作为一个贸易敏感州 (trade-exposed state: 经济容易受国际贸易政策影响的州) 往往不为人所关注。该州的进口额占其经济总量的比例位居全国前列。你可能会想到密歇根州或其他一些作为大型制造业州的州，但实际上是肯塔基州。而现在，它正处于贸易战 (trade war: 国家间通过征收关税或其他贸易壁垒来限制贸易的冲突) 的交火之中。

Kentucky kind of flies under the radar as a trade-exposed state. Its imports are the top in the country as a share of their economy. You might think Michigan or other states that jump to mind more as big manufacturing states, but it's Kentucky. And right now it's in the crossfire of the trade war.

他们正在生产的产品正受到进口关税 (import tariffs: 对进口商品征收的税费) 的打击，而他们销售的产品，主要是波本威士忌，以及包括航空航天在内的其他商品，也因潜在的反制措施而受到影响，例如其他国家抵制或施加自己的关税。

The stuff they are building is being hit with import tariffs and the stuff they're selling, namely bourbon, but other things including aerospace, is being affected as well with potential countermeasures, countries boycotting or applying their own tariffs.

关税政策的摇摆与法律挑战

尽管自夏天以来，关于关税的新闻节奏有所放缓，但其影响远未结束。上周五，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁要对中国商品征收新的100%关税。但随后在周末，他的态度有所软化，暗示美国将对进一步谈判持开放态度。下个月，最高法院将开始审理一起案件的口头辩论，该案件将决定特朗普的对等关税 (reciprocal tariffs: 针对他国关税而采取的相应关税措施) 是否合法。

Though the pace of tariff news has slowed since the summer, the whiplash isn't over. On Friday, President Donald Trump threatened a new 100% tariff on Chinese goods. But then over the weekend, he softened, signaling the US would be open to further negotiations. And next month, the Supreme Court will start hearing oral arguments in a case that will decide whether Trump's reciprocal tariffs are even legal.

随着特朗普的关税政策开始冲击肯塔基州的关键产业，这个共和党主导州的民主党州长一直直言不讳地指出这些政策对其选民造成的后果。州长安迪·贝希尔表示：“这些影响正在冲击肯塔基州乃至全国的经济。它们尚未完全显现，部分原因在于情况瞬息万变。但我们将在美国看到的是民众成本的增加。”

As Trump's tariff policies start to hit Kentucky's key industries, the red state's Democratic governor has been vocal about the consequences for his constituents. Governor Basher stated, "The impacts are hitting the economy in Kentucky and across the country. They haven't been fully felt yet, and part of that is because it's constantly changing. But what we will see in the United States is increased costs on our people."

贝希尔是肯塔基州州级领导层中为数不多的民主党人之一。但他并非唯一一位因特朗普贸易战而向政府施压的肯塔基州政治家。肯塔基州参议员兰德·保罗也对此发表了看法。

Basher is one of the only Democrats in Kentucky state leadership. But he's not the only Kentucky politician who's taking the administration to task over Trump's trade war. There's Kentucky Senator Rand Paul.

参议员兰德·保罗表示：“我在州内无论走到哪里，听到的头号问题都是：关税正在扼杀家庭农场，关税正在扼杀波本威士忌产业，关税正在扼杀货运业。”

Senator Rand Paul remarked, "The number one issue I get wherever I go in the state is tariffs are killing the family farm, tariffs are killing the bourbon industry, tariffs are killing the cargo transport industry."

而肯塔基州的另一位参议员米奇·麦康奈尔补充道：“把我算作一个希望贸易战不要持续太久的人，因为如果持续下去，就意味着你们所有人的一切商品都会面临更高的价格。”

And Kentucky's other senator, Mitch McConnell, added, "Put me down as a guy who hopes the trade war isn't very long because if it's prolonged, it means higher prices for all of you, for everything."

州议员托马斯·马西也一直是一位直言不讳的关税批评者。他们三人都是共和党人。他们似乎在一点上达成共识：关税是个糟糕的主意，或者至少是目前的实施方式是个糟糕的主意。

State Congressman Thomas Massie has been a vocal tariff critic, too. All three of them Republicans. The one thing they seem to agree on down there is tariffs are a bad idea, or at least the way they're being done is a bad idea.

我是莎拉·霍尔德，这里是彭博新闻的《大视角》。今天的节目将带来乔什对肯塔基州长安迪·贝希尔的更多采访内容，探讨特朗普的贸易战和国内政策议程对这个共和党州的经济及其选民意味着什么。

I'm Sarah Holder and this is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. Today on the show, more from Josh's interview with Kentucky Governor Andy Basher. What Trump's trade war and domestic policy agenda means for the red state's economy and for its voters.

肯塔基：美国经济政策的缩影

特朗普总统在他第二个任期开始几个月后，宣布了他全面的全球关税政策。

President Trump announced his sweeping global tariffs a few months into the start of his second term.

特朗普总统在一次演讲中说：“2025年4月2日将永远被铭记为美国工业重生的日子，美国命运被重新掌握的日子，以及我们再次让美国富裕起来的日子。”经过数月的谈判、升级、降级和延迟，大部分关税于8月7日生效。但这并非故事的结局。

A quote from President Trump: "April 2nd, 2025 will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again." After months of negotiations, escalations, downgrades, and delays, most of those tariffs went into effect on August 7th. But that hasn't been the end of the story.

肯塔基州长安迪·贝希尔评论道：“唯一不变的是，它每天都在变化。”

Kentucky Governor Andy Basher commented on the situation, "The only thing that doesn't change is that it's going to change every day."

彭博白宫记者乔什·温德罗夫想与贝希尔州长交谈，因为肯塔基州在某些方面是美国其他地区的缩影 (microcosm: 某个事物或群体的小型版本，能反映其主要特征)，当地经济正在适应这些不断变化的关税政策。但肯塔基州也特别脆弱。

Bloomberg White House reporter Josh Windgrove wanted to talk to Governor Basher because Kentucky is in some ways a microcosm of the rest of the US as local economies adapt to these shifting tariff policies. But Kentucky is also uniquely vulnerable.

乔什解释说：“肯塔基州是一个交通枢纽州。它靠近密歇根州、俄亥俄州等制造业中心地带，同时也是连接美国海岸线与中部和南部地区的门户。这就是为什么他们拥有许多物流枢纽 (logistics hubs: 货物集散和转运中心) 类型业务的原因，也是为什么他们拥有大量制造业。福特在那里有一个大型工厂。当然，波本威士忌也是他们产业的标志性部分。它在国内销量很大，但在国际上也销量很大，并且经常成为目标，因为各国倾向于寻找具体的商品进行打击，无论是佛罗里达的橙汁还是肯塔基的波本威士忌。这就是为什么这些关税战往往会在这样的地方造成影响。”

Josh explained, "Kentucky is a crossroads state. It is near the manufacturing heartlands of Michigan, Ohio, but a gateway between the coasts and sort of middle and southern America. And that's why they have a lot of logistics hubs type of business. That's why they have a lot of manufacturing. Ford has a huge plant there. Bourbon, of course, has been an iconic part of their industry as well. It's sold a lot domestically, but it's sold a lot internationally, too, and is often targeted because countries tend to look for tangible things to hit, whether it's Florida orange juice or Kentucky bourbon. And that's why these tariff fights tend to bite in places like this."

对进口商品的征税正在打击该州的制造业，而其他贸易伙伴的报复性措施则正在影响该州的出口。

Levies on imports are hitting the state's manufacturing sector, while retaliatory measures from other trading partners are affecting the state's exports.

乔什进一步阐述道：“例如，波本威士忌是一种出口商品，但它正受到影响，因为人们仅仅因为不满而拒绝购买。肯塔基州的主要出口国是加拿大。加拿大人现在非常愤怒，因为特朗普或多或少地试图兼并这个国家。此外，还有钢铁和铝等商品的单独关税。如果你有一家汽车厂，你会使用大量的钢铁和铝。因此，福特正在应对这种情况。”

Josh further elaborated, "For instance, bourbon is an export, but it's being impacted because people are simply refusing to buy it because they're ticked off. Kentucky's main export country is Canada. The Canadians are up in arms right now because Trump is more or less trying to annex the country. And then there's individual tariffs like on steel and aluminum. If you have a car plant, you use a lot of steel and aluminum. And so Ford is navigating that."

制造业的困境与汽车巨头的挑战

福特公司在肯塔基州雇佣了超过1万名工人。贝希尔告诉乔什，该州依赖于福特公司的持续成功。

Ford employs more than 10,000 workers in Kentucky. And Basher told Josh the state depends on the company's continued success.

州长贝希尔表示：“自我担任州长以来的五年半时间里，福特一直是肯塔基州的重要投资者。我们州还拥有世界上最大的丰田制造工厂。福特公司表示，他们认为这种混乱的政策并非通过正常渠道制定，也没有咨询了解汽车行业和如何创造公平竞争环境的专家。”

Governor Basher stated, "Ford has been a huge investor in Kentucky over the last five and a half years since I've been governor. We also have the largest Toyota manufacturing facility in the world in our state. What Ford is saying is that they believe that this chaotic policy that is not being done through normal channels, that is not having the experts that understand the auto industry and how to create a level playing field, they're not being consulted."

特朗普声称他的关税旨在帮助振兴美国制造业。自20世纪90年代以来，该行业已失去超过500万个工作岗位和近7万家工厂。但在肯塔基州，制造业是其经济的主要驱动力，13%的劳动力受雇于该行业。贝希尔告诉乔什，在他的州，特朗普的关税政策正在使这一成功面临风险。

Trump says his tariffs are designed to help revive American manufacturing. The industry has lost more than 5 million jobs and nearly 70,000 factories since the '90s. But in Kentucky, manufacturing is a major driver of its economy. 13% of the workforce is employed in the sector. And Basher told Josh that in his state, Trump's tariff policies are putting that success at risk.

州长贝希尔坚称：“总统可能认为他正在帮助国内制造商，但实际上，他正在伤害他们。”

Governor Basher asserted, "The president might think he's helping domestic manufacturers, but in fact, he's hurting them."

乔什观察到：“人们想到制造业，会想到大型工厂，对吧？但制造业也可以很小。你可能会想到那些从中国进口原材料、在美国制造、在美国销售、雇佣美国人的小公司。这些公司该怎么办？因为现在它们正处于困境之中。特朗普认为，如果你想避免关税，你只需在肯塔基州这样的地方建造一座大型新工厂。嗯，你可能会这样做，但你随后必须支付他征收的其他关税，例如建造那座工厂所需的钢铁关税。这可能会变得过于复杂。或者你可能正在经济存在许多不确定性的时候这样做，你担心消费者需求可能下降，然后你会想，‘不，我还是先等等。’如果每家公司都等等看，情况就会很快停滞不前。所以我认为这就是为什么制造业经常被视为煤矿中的金丝雀 (canary in the coal mine: 预警信号，指潜在危险的早期迹象)，如果你原谅我这个完全无意的肯塔基式双关语，因为它就像一个风向标。”乔什随后问道：“我想知道贝希尔州长是否认为关税能为国内汽车制造商带来任何好处，例如帮助他们在全球竞争。贝希尔如何看待这里的长远发展，以及他是如何谈论这个问题的？”

Josh observed, "People think about manufacturing, they think about giant plants, right? But manufacturing can be pretty small, too. You think of small companies that, let's say, input their materials from China, build it in America, sell it in America, employ Americans. What should that company do? Because right now they're kind of caught in the middle of it. Trump thinks that if you want to avoid tariffs, you're just going to build a big new factory in a place like Kentucky. Well, you might, but then you have to pay the other tariffs that he's charging, for instance, on steel to build that factory. And that might just get too complicated for you. Or you might be doing it at a time when there's a lot of questions about the economy, and you're worried about consumer demand falling, and you're like, 'No, I'll just kind of hold off and wait.' And if every company holds off and waits, suddenly things grind to a halt pretty quickly. And so I think that that is why manufacturing is so often seen as a canary in the coal mine, if you'll excuse the completely inadvertent Kentucky pun, because it is sort of a bellwether." Josh then asked, "I'm wondering if Basher sees any benefits for domestic automakers from tariffs when it comes to helping them compete globally, for example. How does Basher see the long game here and how does he talk about it?"

乔什继续说道：“这很有趣，因为特朗普所做的事情之一就是改变了这方面的共识，对吧？在唐纳德·特朗普出现之前，共和党是反关税的政党。因此，贝希尔州长的立场是，例如钢铁和铝关税，在有针对性时可以是适当的。当中国倾销钢铁和/或铝时，通过正常程序、咨询专家意见后征收的有针对性关税，可以有助于确保美国经济拥有对国家安全至关重要的某些制造业，而不被中国人掏空。”

Josh continued, "It's funny because one of the things Trump has done is sort of shift the consensus on this, right? Republicans were the anti-tariff party until Donald Trump came along. So, Governor Basher's position is steel and aluminum tariffs, for instance, can be appropriate when targeted. When you have China dumping steel and/or aluminum, then a targeted tariff that is done through the regular process that brings in the experts on the amount, those can be helpful to ensure the US economy has certain manufacturing that is critical to our national security without being hollowed out by the Chinese."

乔什补充道：“没错。因此，对于贝希尔州长来说，在汽车方面，这很有趣，因为特朗普喜欢对外国汽车征收关税以帮助国内汽车制造商的想法。问题是，到目前为止，这种顺序反而伤害了国内汽车制造商。肯塔基州的福特是大部分汽车在美国生产的国内汽车制造商。而现在，由于关税政策的全面影响，他们相对于日本竞争对手处于劣势。但这很复杂，因为例如通用汽车是主要的进口商，包括从韩国进口。所以他们也陷入了困境。如果他们为在韩国生产的汽车支付15%的关税，并为在美国生产的汽车支付投入关税，并且不得不雇用高薪工人等等，这实际上可能会促使他们将更多生产转移到韩国，而不是留在肯塔基州或美国其他地方。”

Josh added, "Exactly. So for Governor Basher on the auto piece, it's interesting because Trump likes the idea of tariffing foreign autos to help domestic automakers. The problem is the sequencing so far has hurt domestic automakers. Ford in Kentucky is the domestic automaker that makes most of its cars in the US. And right now they are at a disadvantage against the Japanese rivals because of the way the tariffs have all shaken out. But it is complicated because GM, for instance, is a major importer, including from South Korea. And so they're kind of caught in the middle of it, too. If they pay a 15% tariff on a car they make in South Korea and pay input tariffs on cars they make in America and have to have a higher paid worker or this or that, it might actually incentivize them to shift more production to South Korea than having it in places like Kentucky or wherever in the United States."

法律诉讼与绿色能源政策的回溯

贝希尔远非唯一一个对特朗普关税政策出台方式表示担忧的人。在一波企业和州检察长提起的诉讼之后，美国国际贸易法院裁定总统无权使用**《国际紧急经济权力法》** (International Emergency Economic Powers Act, IEEPA: 授权总统在国家紧急状态下管制国际交易的联邦法律) 来征收关税。目前该案件处于中止状态，特朗普政府正在向美国最高法院上诉，最高法院将于11月5日开始听取口头辩论。

Basher is far from the only one raising concerns about the way Trump's tariffs have been rolled out. Following a wave of lawsuits filed by businesses and state attorneys general, the US Court of International Trade ruled the president does not have the authority to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs. There's a stay on the case while the Trump administration appeals to the US Supreme Court, which will start hearing oral arguments on November 5th.

州长贝希尔表达了他的希望：“我希望民主党检察长在国际贸易法院和地区法院提起的诉讼能够提交给最高法院，并且他们能做出任何其他最高法院都会做出的裁决：总统无权随意改变关税。这位总统想随时随地以任何理由设定任何关税，但法律不允许这样做。”

Governor Basher expressed his hope, "My hope is that the lawsuit brought by Democratic Attorneys General both in the International Court of Trade, as well as in a district court, reaches the Supreme Court and they rule what any other Supreme Court would have: that the president doesn't have the power to change tariffs on a whim. This is a president who wants to simply set any tariff any time for any reason, and the law doesn't allow that."

休息片刻后，肯塔基州的制造业面临的不仅仅是关税问题。绿色能源政策的回撤对那些全力投入电动汽车 (Electric Vehicles, EVs: 使用电池作为能量来源的汽车) 领域的肯塔基州汽车制造商意味着什么。

After the break, Kentucky's manufacturing industry is up against more than just tariffs. What a rollback of green energy policies means for the Kentucky automakers who've gone all-in on EVs.

从煤炭到电动汽车：肯塔基州的经济转型

肯塔基州并非一直都是现在的制造业中心。在20世纪的大部分时间里，它以全国顶尖的煤炭生产州之一而闻名。

Kentucky wasn't always the manufacturing hub it is now. For most of the 20th century, it was known as one of the country's top coal producers.

州长贝希尔回顾过去：“当你看到肯塔基州东部、西弗吉尼亚州及其他地区的煤矿工人时，他们开采的煤炭为工业革命提供了动力，创造了世界上前所未有的最强大的中产阶级，并帮助我们度过了两次世界大战。”

Governor Basher reflected on the past, "When you look at the coal miners of Eastern Kentucky, West Virginia, and elsewhere, they mined the coal that powered the industrial revolution, that created the strongest middle class the world's ever seen, that powered us through two world wars."

但当美国开始更多地投资绿色能源时，肯塔基州长安迪·贝希尔表示，许多矿工在转型中被抛在了后面。

But when the US started investing more in green energy sources, Kentucky Governor Andy Basher says a lot of miners were left behind in the transition.

州长贝希尔详细阐述道：“当能源经济发生变化时，他们没有得到感谢。在许多情况下，他们被告知自己做错了事。新的工作岗位也没有出现在旧工作岗位所在的地方。当时，每个人都在谈论环境正义，但没有人谈论经济正义。而这些为建设国家而辛勤工作的人们却被抛弃了。”

Governor Basher elaborated, "When the energy economy changed, they weren't thanked. In many instances, they were told they were doing something bad. And the new jobs didn't go where the old jobs were. Everybody was talking about environmental justice. At the time, no one was talking about economic justice. And these people that broke their backs to help build this country were left behind."

贝希尔告诉彭博白宫记者乔什·温德罗夫，他现在的首要任务是使肯塔基州的经济多元化。

Basher told Bloomberg White House reporter Josh Windgrove that his priority now is diversifying Kentucky's economy.

州长贝希尔表示：“我认识到气候变化 (climate change: 地球气候的长期变化，通常指人类活动导致的全球变暖) 是真实存在的，我是第一个公开说出这句话的肯塔基州州长。我说这话是因为它是事实。我们不太可能看到旧能源生产领域出现反弹。为什么？因为来到肯塔基州的每家公司仍然告诉我，他们希望更具可持续性，仍然要求他们的能源组合更加多样化。因此，对我来说，如果我想吸引下一批工作岗位，我必须确保我们拥有多种能源生产方式，包括更多的可再生能源 (renewables: 风能、太阳能等可自行补充的能源)。”

Governor Basher stated, "I recognize that climate change is real, and I'm the first Kentucky governor that's ever said that phrase out loud. I say it because it's true. And we're not likely to see a rebound in older areas of energy generation. Why? Because every company that's coming to Kentucky is still telling me that they want to be more sustainable, is still asking for more diversity in their energy portfolio. And so for me, if I want to recruit that next set of jobs, I've got to make sure that we have multiple means of energy production, including more renewables."

肯塔基州工业多元化的很大一部分体现在电动汽车 (EVs: Electric Vehicles) 领域。自贝希尔上任以来，该州已成为电动汽车供应链中的关键参与者，吸引了数十亿美元用于汽车、零部件和电池相关的电动汽车投资。

A large part of Kentucky's industrial diversification has come in the form of electric vehicles (EVs). Since Basher took office, the state has become a key player in the EV supply chain, attracting billions of dollars in EV-related investments in cars, parts, and batteries.

肯塔基州最重要的电动汽车相关项目之一是韩国SK公司与福特汽车的合资企业，名为蓝堡 (Blue Oval: 福特与SK新能源的合资企业，专注于电动汽车电池生产)。

One of the most significant EV-related projects in Kentucky is a joint venture between South Korea's SK and Ford called Blue Oval.

莎拉·霍尔德说：“顺便提一下，我觉得‘Blue Oval’应该读作‘Louisville’（路易斯维尔）那样。” 乔什·温德罗夫：“‘Blueville’（蓝维尔）。” 莎拉·霍尔德：“我觉得这是个双关语。” 乔什·温德罗夫：“哦，好吧。” 莎拉·霍尔德：“‘Blueville’。‘Blueville’。” 乔什·温德罗夫：“‘Blueville’。” 莎拉·霍尔德解释道：“我想作为非肯塔基人，我们还是叫它‘Blue Oval’吧，但我觉得它确实是对路易斯维尔当地发音的一种致敬。” 乔什·温德罗夫：“不用谢。”

Sarah Holder noted, "Side note, by the way, I think we're supposed to pronounce Blue Oval as like Louisville." Josh Windgrove clarified, "Blueville." Sarah Holder: "Like I think it's a pun." Josh Windgrove: "Oh, okay." Sarah Holder: "Blueville. Blueville." Josh Windgrove: "Blueville." Sarah Holder explained, "I think as non-Kentuckians, let's say Blue Oval, but I think it is a nod to the local pronunciation of Louisville." Josh Windgrove: "No, thank you."

去年年底获得拜登能源部近100亿美元贷款后，蓝堡于8月开始为福特的F-150 Lightning皮卡生产电池。

After receiving a nearly $10 billion loan from Biden's Department of Energy at the end of last year, Blue Oval began producing batteries for Ford's F-150 Lightning pickup truck in August.

州长贝希尔自豪地表示：“对我们来说，首先能获得蓝堡项目是不可思议的，它有两个工厂。肯塔基一号工厂已经投入运营，拥有超过1400名员工。肯塔基二号工厂正在全面建设中，唯一的问题是何时投入运营。这带来了数十亿美元的额外投资，以及目前尚不存在的供应链。”

Governor Basher proudly stated, "To us, it was incredible first to secure Blue Oval, and that has two plants. Kentucky One is up and operating already with over 1,400 employees. Kentucky Two, they are fully constructing. The only question is when it will go into operation. And what that's done is brought in billions of dollars of additional investment, a supply chain that doesn't currently exist."

但自从特朗普宣誓就职以来，这家电池厂一直面临逆风。在绿色能源投资普遍回落的背景下，联邦电动汽车税收抵免于9月到期，电动汽车需求一直在放缓。这影响了蓝堡电池的需求。

But since Trump was sworn in, the battery plant has been facing headwinds. Amid a broader rollback in green energy investment, the federal EV tax credit expired in September, and demand for electric vehicles has been slowing. That's affected demand for Blue Oval's batteries.

乔什解释说：“它正面临不确定性，因为它原本是为福特电动卡车F-150 Lightning制造电池的。而这款卡车的市场需求远未达到福特预期。”

Josh explained, "It is sort of facing uncertainty because it was meant to build batteries for the F-150 Lightning, Ford's electric truck. Demand for that has just not been anywhere near where Ford thought it would be."

福特去年在电动汽车业务上亏损了约50亿美元。该公司表示，今年可能会亏损更多。与此同时，特朗普的移民政策也加剧了蓝堡项目的不确定性。9月，美国移民及海关执法局 (Immigration and Customs Enforcement, ICE: 美国国土安全部下属的执法机构，负责移民法执行和边境安全) 官员突袭了佐治亚州的一家现代汽车电池厂。他们逮捕了475人，其中大部分是韩国移民。

Ford lost about $5 billion on its EV business last year. And the company said it could lose even more this year. Meanwhile, Trump's immigration policies are also ratcheting up uncertainty for the Blue Oval project. In September, ICE officials raided a Hyundai battery plant in Georgia. They arrested 475 people, mostly South Korean immigrants.

乔什补充道：“现在最大的问题是，佐治亚州的这次突袭对全国所有其他韩国项目会产生什么影响，包括路易斯维尔的蓝堡合资企业，以及肯塔基州的其他韩国项目和未来的项目。这可能会产生寒蝉效应。这是一场巨大的外交危机。所有这一切都悬而未决，包括特朗普总统与韩国的贸易协议。它的关税、移民、投资和贸易，所有这些都构成了一个完整的故事。”

Josh added, "The big question right now is what impact does that Georgia raid have on every other Korean project in the country, including the Blue Oval joint venture in Louisville, including other South Korean projects in Kentucky and future projects. There's a potential chilling effect. It is a huge diplomatic crisis. Hanging in the balance of all this is President Trump's trade deal with Korea. Its tariffs and its immigration and its investment and its trade. It's all kind of one story."

坚定不移的电动汽车未来

尽管面临这些挑战，乔什表示福特仍致力于在肯塔基州发展其电动汽车业务。该公司正在投资20亿美元，在其路易斯维尔工厂生产经济型电动汽车。至于肯塔基州州长，他对该行业的信心并未动摇。

Despite these challenges, Josh says Ford is committed to building its EV business in Kentucky. It's spending $2 billion to build budget electric cars at its Louisville plant. And as for the Kentucky governor, his faith in the industry hasn't been shaken.

州长贝希尔确认道：“你们看到的是福特，我看到的是所有其他主要制造商仍在继续进行电动汽车投资。很多人试图对抗未来，但从未有人成功。就汽车行业而言，电动汽车是世界的发展方向。问题在于其发展的速度。在肯塔基州，我们也知道如果你在一个行业中不站在变革的前沿会发生什么。我绝不会让这种情况发生在汽车行业。”

Governor Basher affirmed, "What you see is Ford, and what I see is every other major manufacturer is still continuing to make EV investments. A lot of people have tried to fight the future, and no one's ever won. EVs are where the world is going in terms of automotive. The question is the pace or speed at which it moves. In Kentucky, we also know what happens if you aren't on the forefront of change in an industry. I will not let that happen in the automotive sector."

贝希尔是一位将宝押在电动汽车上的民主党人。因此，听到他批评特朗普的保护主义、侧重石油和天然气的经济议程，或许并不令人意外。但贝希尔告诉乔什，当这些政策的经济后果开始冲击肯塔基州时，他相信民主党和共和党人都会感受到。

Basher is a Democrat who's betting the farm on EVs. Perhaps it's not surprising to hear him critique Trump's protectionist oil and gas-heavy economic agenda. But Basher told Josh that when the economic consequences of these policies start to hit Kentucky, he believes both Democrats and Republicans will feel them.

乔什评论政治格局时说：“包括贝希尔州长在内的民主党人仍在努力弄清楚如何谈论关税问题。部分原因是不完全清楚他们自己的党派将采取何种立场，部分原因是消费者尚未真正完全感受到标价冲击 (sticker shock: 因价格突然大幅上涨而感到的震惊)。他们仍然看到多年来一直面临的通胀数据，他们认为价格只是居高不下。但这种标价冲击将会到来，我认为那时我们将看到民主党加大宣传力度。”

Josh commented on the political landscape, "Democrats, including Governor Basher, are still trying to figure out how to talk about the tariff question. In part because it's not totally clear where their own party will land, in part because consumers aren't really yet totally seeing it in the sticker shock. They still see the inflationary numbers that they've been dealing with for years, and they assume the prices have just stayed high. But that sticker shock is going to come, and I think then we'll see Democrats ramp up their messaging on it."

乔什继续说道：“我认为在美国，你找不到多少选民会说他们是因为关税而去投票的。特朗普告诉他们的是，他会让他们在月底支付账单时更容易一些。但他执政的方式却与他所承诺的背道而驰。”

Josh continued, "I don't think you'd find many voters in America who said that they went to the polls and voted because of tariffs. What Trump told them was he was going to make paying bills at the end of the month a little bit easier. But he's governed in any way but what he promised."

乔什总结道：“特朗普已经宣布胜利，称我们尚未看到通胀。但包括贝希尔州长在内的许多人，以及其他行业和公司都表示，这只是因为关税变化过于频繁，尚未显现出来。公司尚未决定如何应对，但最终其中一部分或全部成本将转嫁给消费者。那时，我认为这将会成为一个更强烈的政治问题。”

Josh concluded, "Trump is already declaring victory, saying we're not seeing inflation yet. But so many people, including Governor Basher, but other industries and companies are saying it's just not there yet because the tariffs are changing so frequently. The companies haven't decided what to do yet, but eventually some or all of that is going to get passed on to the consumer. And that's when this is, I think, going to become more of a potent political issue."