私募市场与资本配置的未来:阿波罗 CEO Marc Rowan 深度对话 a16z a16z 2026-05-27

德雷克塞尔遗产:从业务逻辑到“白纸思维”的金融进化

回顾 Marc Rowan 的职业起点,1984 年他从沃顿商学院毕业后加入 德雷克塞尔(Drexel Burnham Lambert),而非当时精英们趋之若鹜的高盛。德雷克塞尔的独特之处在于其资助创业者(Financing Entrepreneurs)和新公司的业务模式。在那里的工作并不要求深奥的金融技巧,而是要求对业务本身(Business)有极其深刻的洞察。因为这些客户并非当年的埃克森美孚,而是商业模式尚存疑虑的挑战者。

这种“业务优先”的理念直接塑造了后来的信用决策机制。由于当时处理的都是非投资级(Below Investment Grade)资产,从业者被迫回归基本面,而不是依赖第三方评级。更重要的是,那是一个白纸思维(Clean Sheet Thinking)的时代——高收益债、杠杆贷款、甚至证券化产品在当时都不存在。这种从零开始解决问题的能力,成为了阿波罗今日的核心动力。正如 Rowan 从导师 Michael Milken 那里学到的最深刻教训:你要么主动拥抱变革,要么变革就会降临到你头上。

Original English Source

I thought we'd start by maybe going back in time. Um, you joined Drexel coming out of Wharton, I believe, in 1984. Um, what did you see in the firm at that time? You know, it was an interesting thing. Um, everyone who had come out of my program at Wharton had basically gone to Goldman Sachs. And what struck me about Drexel's business, which was financing entrepreneurs, financing new companies, is that you didn't really need to know all that much about finance. You needed to know a lot about business because these companies were not the Exxons of the day or the top-notch companies of the day. They were companies where legitimately there were questions on the business model. And I was always much more interested in business than I was in the nuances of finance and public offerings and things like that. And I was not disappointed. It was awesome.

Look, this business-first mentality and really understanding the business is ultimately about making credit decisions. These companies were not investment grade; they were below investment grade. It really forced you to understand the fundamentals of their business, not to rely on third parties, but also a whole market was being created. There were no high-yield bonds. There were no levered loans. There were no ETFs. There was no real securitized product. All the products that we take for granted today that exist did not exist. This forced you into clean sheet thinking. The whole notion of PIK, I believe, was created in one afternoon solving a problem. The notion of silver-backed or silver-indexed bonds solving another problem and so on and so on. The notion of a highly confident letter, the notion of bridge financing. All of these things were basically problem-solution, problem-solution. And that mentality of understanding the business, understanding the credit, but also having clean sheet thinking is certainly what powers Apollo today.

The thing that [Michael Milken] said is you either accept change or change is visited upon you. And we're certainly in that moment where you either accept change or change is going to be visited upon you.

阿波罗的基因:危机中的生存智慧与“心脏病”风险管理

阿波罗的诞生本身就是一场危机管理的杰作。1990 年,德雷克塞尔突然倒闭,Rowan 带着装在纸箱里的办公用品离开了办公室。这次经历让他总结出金融服务机构死亡的两大病因:心脏病(Heart Attack)或癌症(Cancer)。心脏病是指融资风险(Funding Risk),即“借短贷长”导致的资金链断裂,这在贝尔斯登和雷曼兄弟身上反复上演;而癌症则是长期积累的劣质资产(Bad Assets)。阿波罗将这些教训刻入文化,通过坚持委托人思维,宁可止损也绝不盲目加码。

1990 年的全球衰退中,Rowan 及其团队在失业状态下意外获得了法国信贷银行(Crédit Lyonnais)的支持。尽管当时 M&A 业务陷入停滞,但团队敏锐地意识到那是部署资本(Deploy Capital)的绝佳时机。最终,他们以 8 亿美元起步,在年底前管理了 60 亿美元资金,并成为该银行最大的利润中心。随后阿波罗被转手给法国工业大亨 Francois Pinault,这段充满戏剧性的“跨国误解”最终演变成了长达 18 年的稳健扩张,并确立了阿波罗作为大型替代资产管理机构的地位。

Original English Source

I left my office on Friday. I came back in on Sunday and I left with all my belongings in a cardboard box and Drexel was out of business. A great lesson. Financial services firms die from one of two causes: Heart attacks or cancer. Heart attack is funding risk. If you lend long and borrow short, you have funding risk. We saw this in Bear Stearns. We saw this in Lehman Brothers. We've seen this again and again. I will tell you that formative lesson: We will never see that at Apollo. It is ingrained in our culture to understand this funding issue, this heart attack risk. And then the cancer risk, of course, is the addition of bad assets over a long period of time, which again we as a principal mentality firm do not allow to happen. We admit our mistakes. We move on. We take our losses. We don't double-down and triple-down and do these other things.

Fortunately, a group of us had been sharing office space... we received a cold call from the government bank of France, the Crédit Lyonnais... asking whether we would be interested in starting an M&A boutique... one of us said, "But this would be an awesome time to deploy capital." ...A few months later, we left with $800 million of the government of France's money... And by the end of the year, we had $6 billion... and we went on to become the largest profit center of the Crédit Lyonnais. Eventually, the bank... sells its most profitable investment, Apollo, to its largest client, François Pinault.

金融范式转移:从私募股权到全球最大的“投资级信用”平台

公众通常错误地将阿波罗定义为一家私募股权公司(Private Equity Firm),但事实上,在阿波罗目前超过一万亿美元的资产管理规模(AUM)中,80% 是信用资产,且绝大多数是投资级(Investment Grade)信用。剩下的 20% 中,一半是合伙型混合股权(Hybrid Equity),传统私募股权仅占极小部分。Rowan 强调,当一家公司规模扩大时,必须服务于某种基本公益(Fundamental Good)才能抵御社会和监管的压力。

阿波罗目前服务于三大公益:首先,它是全球最大的退休收入(Retirement Income)提供者;其次,它是全球工业复兴(Global Industrial Renaissance)最大的融资来源;最后,它是公共市场(Public Markets)的多元化替代方案。Rowan 指出,当前美国 10 只股票占据了标普 500 指数近 50% 的权重,这种极端集中意味着整个国家的退休系统都押注在单一趋势上。相比之下,私募市场涵盖了全球 80% 的经济活动,且包含像 OpenAIAnthropicSpaceX 这样估值数万亿却未上市的巨头,投资者若缺乏私募敞口,将错失巨大的价值增长。

Original English Source

The firm today is a little bit over a trillion dollars in assets under management... 80% of the assets under management are credit, and the vast majority of that is investment grade. And the other 200 billion or 20% of it, half of it is what we call hybrid equity, partner-like equity, and half of it is traditional private equity in a fund structure. It's a totally different makeup of a business than people expect when they say, "Well, Apollo is a private equity firm." Well, actually, Apollo is mostly an investment grade credit firm.

The fundamental good is we are the largest provider of retirement income anywhere in the world. The second is we are the largest source of financing for this global industrial renaissance that is taking place. And finally, we are diversification for public markets. 10 stocks right now in the US are nearly 50% of the S&P and they're all levered to the same trend. So far that's been amazing, but we've levered most of the retirement system of the country to 10 stocks. If you're an investor and you're looking for diversification, there's no place to get it other than private markets. Private markets are 80% of the action going on in the world. Great companies—Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX, Cognition, Cursor—every one of those companies is private, multiple trillion dollars of value, and yet most investors have zero exposure to them.

AI 驱动的重资产时代:当软件开始“吞噬”物理基础设施

在 Marc Rowan 看来,Marc Andreessen 十多年前提出的“软件正在吞噬世界”在 AI 时代变得更加真实。不同的是,现在的技术进步已不再仅仅是轻资产的软件开发,而是演变成了规模空前的资本密集型(Capital Intensive)产业。2025 年是数据中心、芯片和能源需求的“概念证明”年,而从 2026 年开始,市场将意识到这场变革需要投入“自火被发明以来所有的资金”。

这种规模的投入无法仅靠股权融资完成。阿波罗正在利用其在信用市场的优势,为数据中心、芯片融资和机器人等基础设施提供资金支持。这些资产具有可重复利用性和硬资产价值(Hard Asset Value),非常适合从风险较高的股权投资转嫁到信用市场。Rowan 预测,未来我们将看到优秀的创业者与金融创业者(Financial Entrepreneurs)建立紧密合作,共同解决由于 AI、国防、能源传输和下一代制造业爆发所带来的巨大资本缺口。

Original English Source

Mark Andreessen wrote this piece over a decade ago that software's eating the world. And that feels more true than ever as AI proliferates all parts of the economy. And as a result, we're finding ourselves funding more capital intensive businesses in areas like defense and energy and robotics and manufacturing. Ultimately, most of these businesses will need to graduate at some point beyond venture equity.

The amount of money that's going to be put into data centers, into chips, into robotics, into manufacturing, into defense is, as I suggested, every dollar since the invention of fire. That is not going to be financed with equity entirely because that is not efficient and the scale of it is not achievable. It is going to have to be parceled out into various risks. So if I look at the drivers of our business for this year, it is data centers. It is massive amounts of chip financing. Things that are reusable, things that have hard asset value are being offloaded into the credit markets at the appropriate rate of return and at the appropriate risk rating. 2025 was just proof of concept that data centers and chips and energy were all needed. 2026, the market is starting to recognize that if this continues, 800 billion of capex from just four public companies this year, everyone who is an investor is going to be concentrated in certain names.

行业警示:AI 对企业软件与私募股权存量资产的“毁灭性”冲击

Marc Rowan 对企业软件(Enterprise Software)的未来持极度悲观态度,他将其称为“SaaS 大灾难”。在过去十年中,私募股权行业约 30% 的资金投向了企业软件领域,而这些投资的定价反映的是一个没有 AI 参与的未来。随着 AI 的出现,软件的边际成本趋向于零,Rowan 预言,这部分资产的投资回报将是“灾难性的”。虽然这些公司不至于倒闭,但它们被转手给公开市场或其他投资者的估值空间已严重萎缩。

在 AI 的影响下,任务可被分为“有正确答案”的(如会计、贸易运营、编程)和“依赖判断”的(如莎士比亚文学评论)。前者正面临垂直下降式的替代风险(Replacement Risk),而后者则是增强与辅助(Augmentation)。Rowan 认为,未来的就业市场将出现“蓝领阶层崛起”与“白领阶层衰落”的剪刀差,这对主要依赖白领就业的蓝色城市和传统政治格局将是巨大的挑战。

Original English Source

I personally expect the returns from private equity in the ground to be disastrous because so much of exposure is to enterprise software. 30% of the private equity industry over the past decade has been devoted to enterprise software. The price they paid reflected a future that did not have AI in it, and now there's AI in it. It means that the prospects of onselling it either to the public markets or to someone else are now simply reduced.

In some things that have a right answer—accounting, trade ops, a number of other applications—we are going to see replacement. On the other hand, in things that require judgment and knowhow, we're going to see augmentation or enhancement. I think we're going to see a little bit of blue-collar ascendancy and white-collar decline. And I think that's going to be a difficult spot for politics which has not operated with that notion historically. It's going to be a difficult thing for blue cities where much of this white-collar employment is focused.

道德领导力与精英管理的回归:超越肤色的个体评判

在谈到社会责任时,Rowan 因其在反对校园反犹主义及维护功绩制(Meritocracy)方面的强硬立场而备受关注。他直言不讳地批评大学领导层在处理言论自由时的双重标准。他认为,当前的许多争议本质上不是宗教问题,而是反美国、反资本主义、反功绩制的系统性危机。他坚持认为,大学的职能应回归学术卓越与研究,而非成为社会变革的工具。

阿波罗在人才招聘上始终坚持**“功绩 + 奋斗距离”**(Merit adjusted for distance traveled)的公式。Rowan 坚决反对基于肤色、性别等不可改变的特征(Immutable Characteristics)进行群体划分。他认为,评估一个人的标准应是其个体克服困难并取得成就的历程。这种“做正确的事而非容易的事”(Do right over easy)的原则虽然带有成本,但却是阿波罗实现从“成功”转向“意义”的基石。

Original English Source

What we were watching was not free speech. We were watching favorite speech, preferred speech. I believe that we should not support those things that violate fundamental moral principles. I saw it as an anti-American, anti-system issue. We've stuck with the same formula: We hire for merit adjusted for distance traveled. And distance traveled is not about your immutable characteristics. It is about you as an individual, not your class, not your group. Show me the individual who's had to overcome something and still achieved. That's who I want.

Apparently, that's controversial, by the way. But I think there was a resounding amount of positive feedback on moral leadership. It's one of the principles that we have at Apollo, which is we do right over easy. It was easy to have said "no carbon" or said nothing. It was hard to have said, "We're going to make it better, not worse, but if that includes financing hydrocarbons, we're going to finance hydrocarbons." We are the luckiest people in the world. It's now going not from success to success, but from success to significance.

阿波罗文化:在千人规模中保持“追求胜利”的创业灵魂

随着阿波罗成长为拥有 6000 名员工的巨头,Marc Rowan 将大量精力投入到文化建设中。他认为,创始人在文化上拥有更大的自由度,但必须制度化以确保传承。阿波罗的核心文化是**“追求胜利”(Playing to Win),并伴随高度的坦诚**。他们甚至拥有一面“耻辱墙”,因为在阿波罗,你不会因为犯错而丢掉工作,只有无法承认错误、无法修复错误才会导致被解雇。

Rowan 追求的是一种**“智识上的不服从”**(Intellectual Insubordination)——即在一个非正式的权力结构中,让正确的答案胜出。他强调,金融行业最终运行在经验之上,这要求合伙人能在这里度过完整的职业生涯。因此,公司不仅要在商业上支持员工,更要在人生的“关键时刻”(Moments that matter)给予人性化的关怀。将“智识上的挑战性”与“人性的温度”结合起来,正是阿波罗在多变的金融世界中保持卓越的魔力所在。

Original English Source

The greatest amount of effort of any project we've done in the past year has been on culture. What makes Apollo Apollo? How do you keep a company that's been really successful hungry and playing to win? Most companies hit an arc and then they decline to mediocrity. We basically say: I fail quickly and fix it quickly. You do not get fired here for making a bad decision. You get fired here for not recognizing it or not owning it and not fixing it. We have a wall of shame. Every senior professional here has lost money for the firm. If you haven't, you're just not doing enough.

Clean sheet thinking. Let's ask the question of what the right answer is. Informality. Informality in terms of intellectual insubordination, which I contrast with real insubordination. An environment where the right answer wins, where we can treat each other as humans. The business ultimately runs on experience, and that only lasts if your partners stay with you for their entire career. How we deal with people in these moments that matter... it's really important. It actually is almost more impactful than anything else we do.

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关键字: private-markets asset-management ai-infrastructure capital-allocation retirement-income