现代领导力、商学院教育与全球经济变局 Norges Bank Investment Management 2025-05-07

欢迎与现代领导力的核心转变

大家好,我是挪威主权财富基金(Norges Bank Investment Management:管理挪威政府全球养老基金的机构)的首席执行官尼古拉·坦根。今天,我非常荣幸能与我最喜欢的人之一——杰弗里·加勒特(Geoffrey Garrett)共度时光。

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Hi everyone, I'm Nicolola Tangen, the CEO of the Norwegian Southern Wealth Fund and today I'm in really great company with one of my favorite people, Jeff Garrett.

杰夫是南加州大学马歇尔商学院(University of Southern California Marshall School of Business:美国一所著名商学院)的院长,拥有令人难以置信的职业履历,我认识他是在他担任沃顿商学院(Wharton School:宾夕法尼亚大学的商学院,全球顶尖商学院之一)院长期间。事实上,当我获得挪威主权财富基金的工作时,他是我第一个打电话咨询的人,我想问他:“我该怎么做?”

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Now Jeff is the dean of the University of Southern California, Marshall School of Business and has an incredible track record and I know him from when he was the dean at the Wharton School. Actually, he was the first person I called when I got the job in the Norwegian Self to ask him, you know, what am I going to do?

此外,杰夫还在牛津大学、斯坦福大学和耶鲁大学担任过非常重要的职务。杰夫,非常欢迎你!尼古拉,很高兴能和你在一起。

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Um, also Jeff has held uh very important uh roles at Oxford, Stanford and Yale. So Jeff, big welcome. Hey Nikolai, it's great to be on with you.

那么,当今领导者最需要具备的技能是什么?我认为领导力的世界正在发生巨大变化。对我来说,这可能有点浮夸,但我想说,我们过去常常把领导者看作英雄,而现在我们需要把领导者看作是。所以,我的答案是:变得更有人性。

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What's the number one skill a leader needs today? So you know I think the the world of leadership is changing a lot. Um you know for me maybe it's a bit glib but I would say we used to think about leaders as heroes and now we need to think about leaders as humans. So I think my answer would be to be more human.

商学院的领导力培养

领导力可以被教授吗?这是一个经典的商学院问题。我的经典回答是:你可能无法教授领导力,但我们的学生肯定可以学会成为领导者。我认为这意味着领导力教育必须非常注重体验式

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Can it be taught? Uh classic business school question. The my classic answer to that is it might you might not be able to teach leadership but our students can certainly learn to be leaders. And I think that means that leadership education has to be very experiential.

体验式学习意味着,首先要了解你作为一个人是谁,你想成为什么样的人。其次,你如何与他人互动?变得自我意识和自我反思。然后,一旦你完成了这两件事,你就可以考虑领导组织了。但对我来说,如今这很大程度上是一种由内而外的过程。从人本身开始,然后由此发展。

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What what does that mean? Experiential I think means in the first instance learning about who you are as a person, who you want to be. Then second, how do you interact with others? Become self-aware and self-reflective. And then once you've done those two things, you can think about leading organizations. But for me, it's very much inside out these days. Start with the human and go from there.

商学院如何教授这种能力?它如何帮助你变得更具自我意识并探索你的内心?我再次强调,这可能有点异端邪说,但我认为商科教育的很多价值一直都在课堂之外。我认为这对于领导力和创业精神来说更是如此。这两者都是边做边学的技能。

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And how does a business school uh teach that kind of thing? How does it help you to become more self-aware and to explore your inner self? Well, I again I maybe this is a bit heretical to say, but I think a lot of the value of business education has always been outside the classroom. And I think that's more true. It's probably more true of leadership and entrepreneurship than anything else. Those are both learning by doing skills.

所以你必须经常练习。你知道这在商学院是如何运作的。我们不仅进行大量的团队合作,而且我们的学生还运营许多社团,他们参与非营利组织,他们在课堂之外做了很多事情。当然,这可能会为你的简历增加一行,但它真正做的是锻炼你的领导力肌肉

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And so you got to do them a lot. And you know how this works in business schools. uh not only do do we do a lot of team-based work, but our students run a lot of clubs, they're involved in not forprofits, they do lots of things outside the classroom that sure it might add another line to your CV, but what it's really doing is is building your leadership muscle.

应对复杂性:敏捷性、好奇心与情境理解

现在,你看到世界日益增长的复杂性,这如何改变了领导者的角色?一切都变得更加困难,对吗?如果你思考一下,我认为我们现在所说的是,敏捷性已经成为一项非常重要的技能。你不能仅仅遵循一套标准的操作程序,因为世界可能瞬间改变。

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Now, the increased complexity you are seeing in the world now, how does that change uh the leadership role? Um everything is much harder, right? And and if you think about that, you know, the the I think what we're saying these days is that agility has become a very important skill, right? You can't just be on some standard operating procedures pathway because the world can can change in an instant.

那么,这自然引出了一个问题:你如何培养敏捷性?对我来说,有两个“C”开头的词语非常重要,顺便说一句,我认为你两者都具备。第一个是好奇心。我不是说不需要一系列技术技能才能在技术驱动的世界中取得成功,但你必须对更广泛的事物保持好奇。

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Um so then that of course just begs the question, how do you develop agility? And for me, you know, there are two Cwords that matter a lot and and I think you embody both of these by the way. Um the first one is curiosity. I don't you know yes there are a whole bunch of technical skills that people need to succeed in a technology enabled world but you've got to be curious about broader stuff.

第二个“C”开头的词语是情境。我认为情境真的非常重要。你知道文化、历史、语言,所有这些你作为一个人所具备的东西,它们也极其重要。你不能认为自己无所不知,也不能活在自己的小世界里。我认为你必须更加外向,真正地关注外部世界

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And the second thing second C word for me is context. I think context really really matters. You know culture, history, language, all the things that that as I said you embody as a person. Those are incredibly important too. You can't you can't think you know everything and you can't live in your own little world. You've got to be more uh externally oriented and really externally aware I think.

你在哪里能找到有好奇心和情境感的人?我的意思是,你如何筛选他们?嗯,我认为高等教育的招生答案是,我们使用客观指标,比如考试分数、成绩、考试结果。它们是第一道筛选。但大多数精英高等教育现在之所以关注论文和面试,是因为我们真正想了解一个完整的人。

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Where do you find curious people with a sense of context? I mean how do you how do you screen for them? How do you Well, I mean you know that the I think the admissions answer these days in higher education would be that we kind of use objective indicators, you know, test scores, grades, exam results. They're the first filter. But the reason that that most of elite higher education now focuses on essays and interviews is that we really want to know the full person.

所以,当你寻找那些你希望成为未来领导者的人时,你寻找的不仅仅是应试者。我认为这也是一个双向选择,对吧?雇主想要什么?雇主想要那些在第一天就能胜任工作,并且能在五年或十年内成长为领导者的人。如果你只看客观指标,这会很难找到。

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So you're looking for more than test test takers when you're looking for people who you want to be emerging leaders. And you know I think this is also a onew right? What do employers want? Employers want people who on day one can do the job but can grow into becoming leaders in year five or year 10. and and that's going to be hard to find if you just look at, you know, objective indicators.

新领导者的上任策略

你的人生中是否有过某个时刻,让你改变了对优秀领导力的看法?嗯,你知道,我年纪大了,经历了很多,所以有很多经验。但我可以告诉你,新冠疫情(COVID-19)在三个方面对我产生了巨大影响。

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Was there a time in life um where you change your view on what good leadership is? Well, you know, I'm old and I've been around, so I've had lots of experiences, but I can tell you that co really had a big impact on me in maybe three senses.

首先,我了解到自己可能更适合战略和战略思维,而不是应对瞬息万变的运营挑战。整个新冠疫情期间,世界都在不断地进行“消防演习”,而我并不太适合那种环境。这是第一个观察。

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The first one is that I learned about myself that I'm probably better suited to strategy and strategic thinking than I am to instantaneous operational challenges. Right? The the whole the whole co world was constant fire drills and I wasn't as well suited to that. So that was the first observation.

但第二个真正让我震惊的是,在像新冠疫情这样的环境,也许在任何危机中,它都会挤压战略空间。如果人们担心明天,那么思考中期战略是不合时宜的。所以在新冠疫情期间,运营挤压了我的战略空间。

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But the second one which really struck me was that in an environment like co and maybe in any crisis it kind of crowds out strategy. Um it's inappropriate to be thinking about the medium-term if people are concerned about tomorrow. So operations crowded out strategy for me in co.

第三件事是,正如你所知,我当时正从沃顿商学院调到马歇尔商学院,从费城调到洛杉矶。我必须在洛杉矶认识一大群人。我了解到三维人际互动的独特之处。你知道,你我今天可以远程进行一次非常好的对话,因为我们彼此了解。如果这是我们第一次见面,我认为我们谈话的基调会不同,会远没有那么丰富。

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and then the third thing was as you know I was doing a job transition from uh from Wharton to Marshall from Philadelphia to LA. Um, and I had to get to know a whole bunch of people in Los Angeles. And what I learned is there's something unique about three-dimensional humans. You know, you and I can have, I think, a very good conversation uh remotely today because we know each other. If this was the first time you and I had ever met, I think the the tenor of our conversation would be different. It would be much less rich.

所以,一方面,我认为所有帮助我们进行Zoom会议和这种播客的技术进步都令人难以置信,但面对面交流仍然有其独特之处。现在,我认为面对面交流的门槛显然比以前高得多,我们应该提高这个门槛,特别是因为面对面交流在所有意义上都更加昂贵。但对我来说,在新冠疫情期间,我深切感受到在二维世界中试图认识人,而不是在三维世界中亲身感受,让我错失了太多内在价值。

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So, so you know on the one hand I think all the gains in technology that help us do Zoom meetings and do this kind of podcast incredible but there's still something about in person now I think the bar to that clearly is much higher than it used to be and we should be particularly since it's much more costly in all senses to do stuff face to face we we we should have a higher bar to doing it but but the value to me the intrinsic value I just felt in co I missing so much trying to get to know people in a two-dimensional world rather than touch and feel in a three-dimensional world.

那么,当你获得一个新的领导职位时,你做的第一件事是什么?比如,你获得了一个,我也获得了一个。你给人们的建议是什么?他们应该如何对待一个新的职位?

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So, what what's the first thing you do when you get a new leadership role? Like, you know, you you got one, I got one. Um, what what is the advice you give to people? How should they approach a new position?

我认为我在大学环境中给人们的建议是:不要阅读那些告诉你“你有100天时间来改变一切”的管理书籍。在学术环境中,你之所以不这样做,是因为即使你认为自己对某个领域非常了解,是一个领域专家,比如我,在我成为这里的院长时,我已经做了10年的商学院院长,但我并不了解马歇尔商学院在文化意义上,在个体层面上的运作方式。总是有这些细微之处。

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So I think the the the piece of advice that I give to people um in a university context is don't read management books that tell you you've got a 100 days to change everything. Um, and the reason for that in an academic context, and you can tell me if you think it generalizes, the reason you don't do that in an academic context is even if you think you know something about you're a domain expert, right? I, you know, I'd been a business school dean for 10 years when I became the dean here, but I didn't know the way Marshall worked in a cultural sense in terms of the individuals. There are always those nuances.

所以我认为,如今的管理学陈词滥调是正确的,那就是积极倾听。你在自己脑海中质疑事物,但你不会向其他人提问,因为那可能有点令人生畏和可怕。但在你自己的脑海中,你一直在提问,而做到这一点的方法就是成为一个非常积极的倾听者,这样你就能尽快掌握知识曲线。

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So I think the you know the the management cliche these days is is the the right one which is to be an active listener right you're questioning things in your own head but you don't ask questions of other people because that can be a bit intimidating and scary but in your own head you're asking questions and the way to do that is just to be a very active listener so you can get up the knowledge curve as quickly as possible.

你认为首席执行官们是好的倾听者吗?无论他们是否是,都有研究表明,你在系统中的职位越高,听到自己声音时获得的内啡肽就越多。这有点不太好。

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Do you think CEOs are good listeners? um whether they are or not you know there are there are you know there is research showing that uh the higher up the higher you are in the system the more endorphins you get by hearing your own voice you know it's something not great about that.

绝对是这样,我认为我们所有身居领导职位的人都必须意识到这一点。我学到的一点是,如果我向任何为我工作的人提问,他们都会认为这是一个引导性问题。如果我抛出一个想法,人们会非常认真地对待它,即使我只是想引发讨论。所以,我认为你必须在自信和谦逊之间取得某种平衡才能奏效。

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absolutely and I think we just have to be anyone in a leadership position has to be aware of that you know the the thing that I've learned is that if I ask questions of anybody uh they who works for me they view it as a leading question. If I throw out a thought bubble, people take it really seriously, even if I'm just trying to provoke conversations. So, I think you've got to have a you need to have some kind of balance between confidence and humility to make that work.

你知道,20年前有人带着一丝狡黠的笑容对我说过一句话,至今听来仍觉得很对:如果你身居领导职位,你很可能是房间里最聪明的人,但你应该尽一切努力不表现出来,因为如果你只是炫耀自己,你就会挤压房间里其他所有人的空间,从而导致集体智慧无法提升。

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And you know, one thing that somebody said to me 20 years ago with a kind of ride grin on their on their face was something that that just sounds right to me, which is if you're in leadership position, you know, there's a chance you're the smartest person in the room, but you should do everything you can not to show that because if you just strut your stuff, you're going to crowd out everything else in the room and so the collective intelligence doesn't increase.

微观管理与赋能:复杂组织中的领导力

我们有一个基金,在全球拥有9000个持股。当然,我们不可能面面俱到。你管理着一所商学院,有许多不同的教授、主题等等。你如何应对如此复杂的局面?

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We have a fund with 9,000 uh holdings across the world. Uh and of course we can't be on top of all of that. You run a business school with lots of different professors, topics, uh all that. Uh h how do you stay on top of a complex situation like that?

我很想听听你是如何管理这些庞大的全球投资的。但在管理意义上,我一直觉得我不想微观管理我的组织中的员工,原因有二。第一,如果我微观管理,事情最终会落到我的桌上,而我的工作量只会越来越高,因为我的带宽有限。

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So I' I' I'd love you to tell me how you think about it in terms of your you managing the these massive global investments that you have. But in a managerial sense, uh what I feel all the time is that I don't want to micromanage the people who work in my organization for two reasons. One, if I micromanage stuff, it ends up on my desk and the the pile just grows higher because I've got limited bandwidth.

但第二点,我认为不进行微观管理的原因是,它没有给人们在工作中成长的机会。所以我想支持人们,但我想支持他们成为更强大、更丰富的人,而不仅仅是狭隘地完成他们的工作。当然,这伴随着风险,如果你授权很多,有人可能会失败。

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But the second reason not to micromanage I think is that it doesn't give people an opportunity to grow in their jobs. So I I want to support people but I want to support them to to become bigger richer uh people not not just do their their job narrowly. Now of course that comes with a risk which is if you delegate a lot of authority somebody might fail.

所以我试图平衡这一点的方法是,给人们大量的成长机会,但要设置一些护栏,这样如果有人犯了错误(我们都会犯错),你也不希望它对你的组织或个人造成真正的损害。你希望人们成长,但要在一个风险得到一定程度降低的环境中。

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So the way I try to balance that is to allow people allow people lots of opportunity to grow but have some guard rails around that so that if somebody look we all do make mistakes. If you make a mistake you don't want it to be really damaging for your organization or for the individual. You want people to grow but in an environment in which some of it has been derisked a little bit.

但我可以问你吗,尼古拉?你身处一个世界,正如播客所示,你确实接触并实际投资了全球最大公司、各个行业的公司。那么,你如何管理好这一切的纪律是什么?

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But can I ask you Nikolai? I mean the you know you're you're in this world where you've got you you literally as the podcast shows you you have access you have access and real investments in the biggest companies in the world in every sector I mean how can what what's the discipline that allows you to manage that well?

我想,这和你说的大致相同,对吧?所以首先,我自己不做投资。我有很多优秀的同事,我们有700人,所以有同事来管理它。非常明确的授权、巨大的问责制、授权。我完全同意关于微观管理的那一点。它简直是不可思议的破坏性,因为它扼杀了乐趣,扼杀了生命的全部意义。我只是觉得这是你能做的最糟糕的事情之一。所以,我完全同意你的看法。

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I guess uh pretty much the same as you say right so first of all I don't make investments myself I have you know great colleagues we are 700 people so got colleagues who who run it very clear mandates, huge accountability, delegation. Um, and I agree totally on the micro managing point of view. It's just totally unbelievably destructive because you kill pleasure and you just kill the whole meaning of life. I just think it's one of the worst things you can do. So, I I just totally agree with you.

个人与职业的融合

这很有趣。你用非常个人化的东西来回应,也包括专业方面。我的意思是,我认为个人和职业的融合是当今,尤其是年轻人身上正在发生的事情。但我想知道你是如何看待这一点的。我知道从你的个人背景来看,你对各种事物都非常感兴趣,对吧?你拥有艺术史学位,心理学学位,当然,你还在沃顿商学院读过商学院。但你是如何看待你的员工作为完整的人的?这其中是否存在任何困难的权衡?它是正和博弈吗?你的方法是什么?

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So, it's interesting. It's interesting that you responded there with very personal stuff as well as professional. I mean, I think the, you know, the merging of personal and professional is something that's happening particularly with younger people today, but I I'm wondering how you think about that. I mean, I know from your personal background that you're you're super interested in really diverse stuff, right? You have an art history degree, you have a psychology degree, of course, you went to business school at Wharton, but how do you think about how do you think about your employees as full people? And you know is are there any difficult trade-offs there? Is it positive sum? What what's your approach?

嗯,当然,你需要把他们看作完整的人。你希望他们继续接受教育,拓展技能。我同意好奇心确实非常重要。现在,从事金融工作最有趣的事情之一就是,我认为你所吃、所穿、所开的一切都是由公司制造的。你需要了解心理学、企业文化、宏观经济、国防、地缘政治、货币,而且这一切每秒都在变化100次。

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Well, uh for sure you need to look at them as as whole people. Um you would love for them to continue to to take education to expand the uh you know the skill sets. Uh I agree curiosity is is um is really really important. Now one of the fun things by working with finance is just like the most interesting thing you can do. I think you know everything you eat and wear and drive is made by a company. You need to understand psychology, corporate culture, you know, macro uh defense, uh geopolitics, currencies, and it's all changing, you know, 100 times a second.

我能看出你多么享受这一点,对吧,就你对播客嘉宾的采访而言。完全是这样。

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So, and I can see I can see how much you enjoy that, right, in terms of the interviews that you do with the people who come on the pod. Totally. Totally.

商学院课程的演变:技术与人文并重

那么,当你面试MBA候选人时,你是否在寻找与过去不同的东西?是的,我们正在寻找不同的东西,不仅是MBA学生,还有本科生,所有商学院的学生。我的想法是,有两条轨道,学生需要在这两条轨道上都非常出色,并且你要确保这两条轨道并行不悖,而不是分道扬镳。

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Now when you when you then um interview uh MBA candidates are you looking for different things than you did in the past? Yes, we are looking for different things um and not only in MBA students in undergraduates in all business school students and the way I think about it is there are two tracks and students need to be really good on both of them and you want to make sure that the the tracks run in parallel and don't diverge.

第一条轨道是技术技能,对吧?过去是统计学和计量经济学。现在数据科学无处不在。你必须让学生即使不是技术高手,也能与技术高手交流。他们必须能够使用人工智能(AI)工具。所以,我认为整个技术技能轨道已经升级了。

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So the first track is technical skills right? So it used to be statistics and econometrics. Now data science is everywhere. You've got to have students who can be even if they're not geeks, they've got to be able to talk to the geeks. They've got to be able to use AI tools. So the whole kind of technical skills track I think has been dialed up.

你知道,你看看沃顿商学院或马歇尔商学院,过去金融是迄今为止最大的领域。现在数据科学正在与之匹敌。所以你有这两种不同版本但都极其重要的技术技能。但在一个人工智能世界里,机器正在做许多人类过去做的技术性工作,那么人类还剩下什么呢?我认为是做人。那是我们最擅长的。

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Um you know, you look at Wharton or you look at Marshall and the the data sci finance used to be the biggest thing by far. Now data science is is rivaling it. And so you have these two different versions of technical skills that are incredibly important. But you know in an AI world in which machines are doing lots of the technical things that humans used to do, what's left for the humans? I think it's to be human. That's what we do best.

所以我会说,技术流利性加上人本领导力。这就是我们一直在寻找的人才组合,也是我们在学生在校期间努力培养的。

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And so I would say kind of technical fluency plus human leadership. That's that's the the combination that we're always we're looking for in people and it's why what we try to develop while while students are in school.

你认为是否存在一些我们没有接触到的天才群体?当然。你知道,他们可能在哪里?我们是否充分利用了文化领域、艺术领域?我的意思是,我们是否可能错失了一些令人难以置信的人才来源?是的。

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Do you think there are some pockets of genuses which you are not getting hold of? Of course. Uh you know and where are and where and where could they be? You know are you tapping enough into uh you know the cultural sector, the art sector. I mean are we just perhaps missing out on some incredible sources of talent? Yes.

我的意思是,我认为世界存在一种搜索成本问题,它也存在于高等教育中,我们不一定能找到最优秀的人才或最适合他们的机会,而他们也找不到我们。这是一个真正的挑战,在任何工业规模的事物中都是如此。我认为技术在这方面有所帮助。

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I mean that I I think there's a kind of search costs problem that exists in the world but it exists in higher ed where we can't find necessarily either the best people or the best opportunities for them and they can't find us. Um that's a that's a real challenge in anything as kind of industrial scale. I think technology helps us there.

但你关于更广泛思维重要性的第二点,这实际上是高等教育中最大的问题,因为一方面,每个人都希望从他们的学位中获得投资回报率ROI:Return on Investment,衡量投资效率的指标)。对吧?ROI最简单的定义是:毕业后我能找到一份好工作吗?

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But but your second point about the importance of broader thinking, this is actually I I think this is the biggest question in higher education because on the one hand everyone wants ROI from their degrees, right? And and the simplest definition of ROI is can I get a good job when I graduate?

所以,投资回报,对吧?所以你得到了回报。是的。是的。对。这是一种不同于你所想的ROI,但我认为对我们的学生来说,它是非常真实的,对吧?如果你有全日制学生的机会成本加上经济成本,你必须计算一下它是否值得。

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So ROI return on the investment, right? So you get a payback. Yeah. Yeah. Right. it it's ret it's ROI in a different sense than you think about it but it but I think for our students it's very real right if if you have the opportunity cost of being a full-time student plus the financial cost you've got to make a calculation of is it worth it.

在美国背景下,你知道,你从挪威来到美国,过去有一种旧观念,人们可以负担得起上大学去寻找自我,做一些很酷的事情,比如成为抗议者或音乐家等等。但如今,由于成本的原因,压力在于投资回报

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and in the American context and you know this you came from Norway to the US you know there was this old idea that people could afford to go to college to find themselves and do really cool stuff and you know I don't know be a protester or a musician or whatever it is the pressure today because of just the cost side is this return on investment.

所以,我认为我们面临的挑战,但也是机遇,在于真正尊重这种ROI立场,并非常认真地对待职业和帮助学生开启职业生涯,同时又不放弃创造性的一面,因为我们知道这两者不仅对成为一个好人很重要,对成为一个成功的专业人士也同样重要。

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So I think that the challenge for us, but the opportunity is to really respect that ROI position and take careers and and and launching our students into careers really really seriously without turning our back on the creative side because we know that both are not only important to being a good person, but they're really important to being a successful professional, too.

那么,你如何改变课程或教学内容,以提高他们的投资回报率,并使他们更好地管理公司和社会?我提到了其中两点。我认为你必须掌握技术流利性。在商学院,这并不意味着我们所有的学生都必须是超级程序员,但他们必须能够利用和驾驭来自优秀软件工程师的洞察力,并培养领导力肌肉

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So how do you change the curriculum or the coursework in order to give them a better return on the investment they make and to and to make them better able to run companies and societies? So, I've mentioned two of the things. I think you've got to nail the technical fluency side. And again, in business schools, I think that doesn't mean you have all of our students have to be super coders, but they've got to be able to use and leverage the insights that come from the great software engineers plus develop the leadership muscle.

然后我认为所有这些都结合在一起。你知道,这听起来可能有点浮夸,但对我来说真的很重要。我称之为真实世界学习。是的,教科书中的内容是基础,但当你将其应用到真实情境中,在真实时间中产生真实影响时,它才真正变得鲜活起来。通常,你是在真实约束的世界中做到这一点的,这意味着通常是团队合作

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And then I think all that comes together. You know, it it it might sound a little glib, but for me it's really important. I would call it realworld learning that yes, you know, what's in a textbook is foundational, but it really comes alive when you apply it and you apply it in a in a real context in real time that has real impact and typically you do that in a world of real constraints too, which means typically means group work.

所以,如果对我来说这是一个三角形:技术技能、人本领导力和真实世界学习,如果我们能做到所有这些,我认为我们就能给学生最好的机会,让他们在生活中取得成功,而不仅仅是在职业生涯中。

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So if it's a triangle for me, technical skills, human leadership, and real world learning, if you can if we can do all of that, I I think we're giving our students the best chance to succeed in their lives, not just in their professional lives.

道德和社会责任扮演什么角色?道德无处不在。你知道,想想最近人工智能的例子,对吧?在人工智能领域,我认为我们需要学生不仅要意识到,让我们思考三种版本的道德。

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What role does ethics and um social responsibility have? Ethics is everywhere. Um and you know, just think about the the latest example of this in AI, right? In AI, I think we need students not only to be aware of I mean let's think about three versions of ethics there, right?

第一种是,嘿,你能用ChatGPT(一种大型语言模型)写出更好的论文或考出更好的成绩吗?绝对可以。但我们必须思考我们对此的态度。人工智能中第二种版本的道德是,你知道,介于隐私和反乌托邦之间的所有问题。机器人不仅会统治世界,还会对我们构成挑战吗?

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One would be hey can you use chat GPT to write a better essay or do a better exam? Absolutely you can. We've got to be but we've we've got to think about our attitude to that. Second version of ethics in artificial intelligence would be you know all of the somewhere between privacy and dystopia. you know, are are robots going to not only uh to run the world but make but be a challenge to us?

然后是第三种版本的道德,我认为我们每天都在看到,那就是人工智能会成为一个巨大的就业杀手吗?我们应该如何思考这个问题?我们能否积极主动地确保人工智能革命像所有之前的技术革命一样,短期内会出现大量就业中断和岗位流失,但长期来看,每个人都会有新的就业机会被创造出来。

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And then the third version of ethics which I think is you know we're seeing it on a daily basis there is is is AI going to be a giant job destroyer or not and how should we think about that and can we be proactive in in in in you know making sure that the AI revolution looks like all the prior technological revolutions where there's a lot of job disruption and displacement in the short term but in the longer term everybody there are new job opportunities that are created.

所以,这是一个非常冗长的方式来表达,我认为道德无处不在,但也许“道德”这个简单的词有点误导,因为它有很多维度。

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So, so that that's a very long-winded way of saying I think ethics is everywhere, but it but the maybe the simple term of ethics, you know, is a little bit misleading because it's got a lot of multiple dimensions.

杰夫,我们都见过许多成功的领导者,当你抽象地思考最优秀的领导者有什么共同点时,你发现了什么?

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Jeff, we both have met uh many successful leaders and when you abstract um and think about what the best ones have in common, what what do you find?

我曾经向一位非常成功的首席执行官(我不会提及他的名字)抛出这个“软球”问题,我说:“成为一名优秀的首席执行官需要什么?”那个人带着一丝狡黠的笑容回答:“哦,这很简单。你所要做的就是能够提出一个愿景并很好地传达它。制定一个战略,并与所有战略家一起在房间里,并且成为一个足够好的人,让人们愿意与你同行。对吧?所以是愿景、战略、执行。”

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So, uh, I I, uh, a very successful CI CEO whose name I won't mention, I I once kind of threw this softball question to this person and said, "What's it take to be a good CEO?" And the person um, replied with a ry grin, "Oh, it's really easy. All you've got to do is be able to come up with a vision and communicate it really well. Have a strategy and be in the room with all the strategists and be a good enough person that people want to go on the journey with you. Right? So vision, strategy, implementation.

知易行难,正如你所知。但我认为,最优秀的领导者可能理解这三个要素,并且他们应该了解自己的优点和缺点。你知道,我说过,我认为我现在了解自己。我在运营方面不如在其他一些方面做得好,但我知道运营和执行至关重要。所以,我必须思考如何弥补自己的局限性。

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Easy to say, really hard to do as you know. But I think that, you know, the the probably the people who are the best leaders understand those three elements and they should understand their own strengths and weaknesses, right? You know, I said I think I think I now know about myself. I'm just not as good operationally as maybe I can be at some of the other elements, but I know operations and implementation is critical. So, I've got to think about how to, you know, compensate for my own limitations there.

如果你身居高位,你如何将中层领导者培养成超级明星?关键是什么?

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And so, if you're at top, how do you develop uh the mid-level leaders into superstars? What what's the key there?

我认为这就是我们之前讨论过的。如果你想,当然你可以支持,正如你所说,你可以鼓励,你可以经济上支持人们获得更多教育,参加领导力培训项目,所有这些都非常有价值。但我认为最有价值的是在职学习在职培训

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Well, I think it's what we talked about before. If you want to, you know, of course you can support, as you said, you can encourage uh you can encourage and you can financially support people to get uh more education, to do leadership training programs, all that stuff is very very valuable. But I think the most valuable thing is on the job on the job learning on the job training.

回到微观管理那一点,你知道,正如我所说,我认为微观管理有两个问题。第一,太多的事情最终会落在你的桌上,工作量会越来越高。但第二点是,你只是错失了帮助与你共事的人发展成为更优秀的人、更优秀的专业人士的机会。

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back to the micromanagement point, you know, as I said, I think there are two problems with micromanagement. one, too much stuff ends up on your desk and the pile gets higher. But the second one is you're just missing the opportunity to help people who work with you develop into being better at what they do, being better people, being better professionals.

所以,我认为不进行微观管理,但也提供足够的支持,让人们在个人和组织风险不大的情况下成长。这对我来说是正确的策略。哦,我认为这很棒。我想这就是为什么我有很多空闲时间,因为我授权了很多。

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So, so I think that not micromanaging, but also providing enough supports to allow people to grow without risking a lot personally and for the organization. That that feels like the right strategy to me. Oh, I think it's great. I think that's why I've got so much time at my hands because I delegate so much.

但时间,我的意思是,你也从你的角度告诉我这一点。我的意思是,我认为我们所有人都面临的风险是,如果你的组织里有很多人,那么会议就会接踵而至。你知道,我总是担心自己被困在办公室里,这可能对我的心理健康不利,但对我的思维功能也不利,因为我需要时间在更广阔的世界里思考。那么,你如何管理你的生活才能实现这一点呢?

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But the but the time to I mean tell me about that too from your perspective. I mean you know I think the the the risk that we all run if you've got a lot of people in your organization is that these are just backto backto backto back meetings. You know, I always I I I worry that I just get trapped in my office and that's probably bad for my mental health, but it's also not good for my mental functioning because I need time to be thinking in a little more blue sky world. So, how do you how do you manage your life to to make that possible?

嗯,首先我必须说一件事,因为当我向你寻求建议时,你知道,当我向你寻求领导力建议时,你对我说的一句聪明话是:“嘿,每个人都认为我75%的时间都在出差,但我实际上只出差50%的时间。所以很明显,我需要让校园里的每个人都知道我在工作,我在校园里。”所以,你知道,你只要确保你在办公室里声音大一点,四处走动,让每个人都知道。我认为这是一个非常好的建议,当你身处农场时,人们需要知道你在那里。

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Well, first I have to to say one thing because when I asked you for advice, uh you know, when I asked you for leadership advice, one of the clever things you said to me was like, "Hey, everybody thinks I'm uh traveling um you know uh 75% of my time, but I'm actually only traveling 50% of the time. So, it's clear that I need to show everybody at campus that I'm at work and I'm at campus." So, you know, you just make sure you are a bit loud when you are in the office and walk around and make sure that everybody knows about it. And I think that's a really really good advice that when you are uh you know at your at the ranch people need to know about it.

是的。这很难做到,因为你知道我很久以前观察到的一件事,对我来说就像一条铁律:如果两个人决定开会,会议默认会在职位更高的人的办公室里举行,这有一个真正的负面影响,那就是你出不去。所以,你刚才问了一个问题,关于你如何开始?你如何开始一个新的职位?这也是我很久以前从别人那里得到的一个好建议,但由于时间限制,很难做到。但建议是,当你第一次见到人时,去他们工作的地方见他们,对吧?

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Yeah. And that's hard to do because you know something that I observed a long time ago that feels like an iron law to me is if uh two people decide to have a meeting the meeting by default happens in the more senior person's office and that has a real negative to it which is you don't get out. So again, you know, you asked a question a little while ago about how do you start? How do you start a new position? That was also a good piece of advice I got from somebody a long time ago, and it's hard to hard to live up to it just because of the time constraints. But the advice was when you first meet people, meet them where they work, right?

首先,这样做是尊重的。其次,你必须去那里。你必须弄清楚物理环境。第三,你可能会遇到一群你平时不会见到的人。所以,我认为如果我们觉得必须如此高效,并且在自己的办公室里开所有会议要容易得多,但它会带来巨大的弊端,这很难做到。

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First of all, it's respectful to do that. Second, you got to get there. You got to figure out your the lay of the land physically. And third, you're probably going to bump into a bunch of people that you otherwise wouldn't see. So, so again, I think it's hard for us to do that if you feel that you've just got to be so productive and it's really much easier to have all the meetings in your office, but it comes at a big downside.

作为一名领导者,自信和谦逊之间是否存在权衡?是否存在权衡?我不知道。但你知道,我总是被问到这个问题,我相信你也是,关于SWOT分析SWOT analysis:一种评估企业或个人优势、劣势、机会和威胁的战略规划工具)的挑战和机遇。我说我没有看到很多挑战。我看到的是很多具有挑战性的机遇

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As a leader, is there a trade-off between uh being confident and being humble? Is there a trade-off? I don't know. But you know I always get asked the question I'm sure you do too about you know back to SWAT kind of analysis challenges and opportunities. I say I don't see a lot of challenges. What I do see is a lot of challenging opportunities.

对于谦逊和自信,我想说同样的话,那就是谦逊地自信是正确的状态。我认为这意味着,你知道,对自己感觉足够好,并理解自己的角色,但回到你几分钟前说的话,不要被“嘿,我说了算”这种内啡肽的冲动所迷惑,因为所有由此产生的负面外部性都会挤压其他人。

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And I'd say the the same thing about uh about humility and confidence that you want to be humbly confident um is the is the right place to be. And I think that means, you know, feeling good enough about yourself and understanding your role, but back to your back to something you said a few minutes ago, just not getting getting captivated by the endorphin rush of, hey, I'm in charge, right? And and because all the negative externalities that come from that in terms of crowding out other people.

学术与企业领导力的融合

你一生大部分时间都在学术界工作。学术界良好领导力的关键是什么?它与管理公司不同吗?

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Now, um you have worked in academia uh well most of your life actually. um what's the key to good leadership in academia? Is it different than running a company?

我认为历史上大学领导力和企业领导力非常不同,但我的感觉是它们现在正在趋同。所以,我认为理解学术领导力的关键在于没有命令与控制。我不能告诉人们该做什么。在大学里,存在的是一系列持续的争取人心的运动。你必须说服人们,让他们愿意齐心协力做某事。

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So I think historically university leadership and corporate leadership were very different but my sense is they're converging a bit now. So the key I think to understanding academic leadership is that there's no command and control. I can't tell people what to do. What there is in universities is an ongoing set of hearts and minds campaigns. You have to convince people that they want to come together to do something.

你知道,当我想到这一点时,我脑海中只有两个词:抱负(Aspire)和激励(Inspire)。你希望有一个能激励人心的抱负性愿景,然后你希望激励他们去实现它。所以,争取人心的运动。是的。命令与控制?不。

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And you know when I think about that, I just have two words in my head. Aspire and inspire. You want to have an aspirational vision that's motivating to people and then you want to inspire them to get there. So hearts and minds campaign. Yes. Command and control. know and my sense is that the the corporate world is moving a bit in the in the hearts and minds direction and that's because younger people are just different.

我的感觉是,企业界正在朝着争取人心的方向发展,那是因为年轻人就是不同。他们不仅在个人生活中,在职业生活中也更加重视意义和目的,远超前几代人。这带来了领导和管理上的挑战,对吧?年轻人不会因为你告诉他们做就去做。他们必须去做。他们必须认同你的愿景。

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They they they value meaning and purpose not only in their personal lives but in their professional lives much more than prior generations do. And that creates a leadership and management challenge, right? That young people aren't going to do it because you tell them to do it. They've got to want to do it. they've got to they've got to buy into your vision.

我认为这是一个巨大的挑战,但也是一个很好的挑战,因为我的感觉是,你知道,在大学里很难做出改变,因为我不能直接说“我们这样做吧”,但反过来说,如果你做出了改变,它实际上会持久并可能奏效,因为人们愿意与你一起踏上这段旅程。

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and and I think that's you know that's a big challenge but but it's an it's a good challenge because you my sense of the you know it's hard to make change in universities because I can't just say let's do this but the flip side of that is if you make change it's actually going to endure and probably work because people wanted to go on that journey with you.

所以,你知道,我的感觉是,企业界正在朝着这个方向发展。我不知道速度有多快,而且显然会因行业而异。

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and and and so you know my sense is again that that that's the direction we're moving moving in the corporate world. I I don't know how quickly and I obviously it would vary by sector.

你希望你能控制更多吗?有时会。你知道,我们正在三月底的美国进行对话,特朗普政府(Trump administration)几乎每天都在给大学带来新的挑战,那种诱惑是:“嘿,如果我们能集中权力,我们就能更有效、更快地做出反应。”这种诱惑是存在的,但我只是认为在学术背景下,这仍然是一个行不通的方案,因为需要进行争取人心的运动。

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Do you wish you could control more? Sometimes you know I you're you know we're we're speaking in we're speaking in late March in the US where the the Trump administration is creating new challenges for universities almost on a daily basis and the the sort of temptation to say hey if we could just centralize power we could react more effectively and more quickly. the temptation is there, but I just think in a in an academic context that that that remains a non-starter because of the because of the need to do hearts and minds campaigns.

所以,是的,当然,在某个瞬间你会说:“天哪,我希望我能自己处理这件事。”但当你更广泛地看待时,我认为我们拥有的模式,即使它显然给高等教育的领导者带来了巨大挑战,但我认为我们模式的优势不仅清晰,而且它也越来越与私营部门相关。

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Um, so so yeah, of course in a in an instant you're going to say, "God, I wish I could, you know, I wish I could just handle this myself." But when you look more broadly, I think the the model that we've got, even though it creates clearly big challenges for for leaders in higher education, I think the upside of our model is not only clear, but it's one that's becoming more relevant to the private sector as well.

你认为学术机构和私营部门之间应该有更紧密的联系吗?嗯,我在商学院工作,所以当然会说“是”。让我给你两个理由,说明为什么我认为这很重要。我不会说“减少距离”,我会说更多双向的对话和协作对私营部门很重要。

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Do you think there should be closer ties between academic institutions and and the private sector? Um, I'm in a business school, so of course I would say yes. Um, and let me give you two two versions of why I think I wouldn't say reducing the distance. What I would say is more two-way uh conversation, collaboration uh with the private sector is important.

所以在商学院的意义上,让我们思考一下课程。假设你想开设最新的AI课程。教授发展专业知识的通常方式是花五年时间研究它,两年时间发表文章,然后,你知道,课程可能在七八年后才出现。我们生活在一个世界里,你知道,Deep Seek(此处原文如此,可能为DeepMind或类似AI公司)说他们下周将推出AI的第二个版本。

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So in in a business school sense, let's think about the curriculum. Uh let's say you want to have the latest AI class. The normal way a professor would develop a develop expertise is to spend five years studying it, two years to get the articles published, and you know, maybe the class appears seven or eight years later. We're living in a world where, you know, I don't know, the Deep Seek says they're going to come out with a a version two of their uh of their AI next week.

现实世界变化如此之快,我们能保持领先的唯一方法就是与私营部门保持持续对话。所以这是一个商学院的答案。如果我更广泛地思考大学,你知道,一个大问题,这在美国以外一直如此,现在在美国境内也越来越真实,那就是科学研究的模式不能100%依赖政府资助或慈善捐赠。

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the the real world is moving so quickly the only way we can stay at the frontier is to be in constant dialogue with the with the private sector. So that's the that's a business school answer. If I think more broadly at the university, you know, the big the big question which has been true uh outside the US but is looking even is looking true now inside the US is that the model of scientific research cannot rely 100% on government funding or on philanthropy.

将会有更多的企业支持的研究,你知道,关于这方面的护栏会有很多争论,这是否是应用研究还是纯粹研究?是的,我认为这是一个真正的问题,但如果我只看研究事业的融资,企业将更多地参与进来,我们必须弄清楚如何以一种既能让大学忠于其价值观,又能实现新事物的自由发现的方式来做到这一点。

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there's going to have to be more corporate supported research and you know there going to be a lot of debates about guard rails around that and is this pro you know is this applied research or pure research yes I think that's a real issue but if I just look at the you know the the financing uh of the research enterprise corporations are going to be more involved and we're going to have to figure out how to do that in in a way that you know allows universities to remain true to their values and allows for unfettered discovery of new stuff.

是的,我们需要所有这些,但我们也回到投资回报率这一点。我们的学生想要投资回报率。从研究角度支持我们的人也想要投资回报率。

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Yes, we need all of that, but but we also back to the return on investment point. Our students want return on investment. People who support us from a research standpoint also want return on investment.

这如何影响你对本科教育和研究生教育的看法?

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How does that leave your view on undergraduate versus graduate education?

让我只在商学院背景下回答这个问题,然后也许可以推广。我确实认为,至少在美国,你所了解的传统模式,当你去沃顿商学院时所了解的模式,正在发生变化。那种模式是先获得一个非常广泛的文科(liberal arts)学位,然后三年或五年后回去攻读MBA,或者成为医生、律师等等。对吧?广泛的本科教育,以就业为导向的研究生学位

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So, let me answer that question only in the business school context and then maybe generalize it. I do think that the traditional model in the US at least you know the one that that you knew about when you went to Wharton I think that model is changing that model was do a very broad-based liberal arts degree and then three years later five years later go back and get an MBA or become a doctor or a lawyer or whatever it was right broad-based undergraduate job oriented graduate degree.

我认为有两种力量正在缩小这种距离,并施加压力,要求一次性完成所有事情。第一种我已经提到了,那就是本科教育真的非常昂贵,很多人负担不起花四年时间仅仅“寻找自我”。我们有责任帮助本科生开启人生的下一个阶段。

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I think there are two forces that uh reducing that distance and putting pressure to to do it all at once. The first one is the one I've already mentioned which is undergraduate education is really really expensive and not a lot of people can afford to spend four years just finding themselves. They it we have a responsibility to undergraduates to help them launch the next stage of their lives.

但第二种,在MBA层面,仅仅是机会成本的问题。如果你是一个27岁的人,在职业生涯中表现出色,你不仅负担不起MBA的费用,也负担不起离开职业生涯两年。所以,你知道,我在沃顿商学院时是本科教育的坚定支持者。我在马歇尔商学院也是如此。

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But the second one at the MBA level is just the opportunity cost story. If you're a 27y old and you're doing really well in your career, you can't afford not only the price of an MBA, but but stepping out of your career for two years.

顺便说一句,对我来说重要的是要说,我并不认为这意味着MBA不如以前重要了。它只是以不同的方式重要。过去,MBA是通往更高层次成功的通行证。它是一个职业加速器。我认为现在,MBA极其有价值,但它对那些想要改变自己正在做的事情的人来说极其有价值。用行话来说,职业转型是MBA最适合的。

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So, you know, I was a big champion of undergraduate at Wharton. I am at at at the Marshall School as well. By the way, it's important for me to say I don't think that means MBA is less important than it used to be. It's just important in a different way. uh it used to be the MBA used to be a passport to the next level of success. It was a career accelerator. I think now uh MBA is incredibly valuable but it's incredibly valuable to people who want to change what they're doing in the jargon. The career pivot is what the MBA is best placed for.

当然,这意味着你必须重新思考MBA层面的教育,因为它不再是像你这样从事金融工作的人,为了获得晋升而回去攻读金融MBA。不,今天的故事不是这样的。它是为那些可能从事咨询工作,但想转入娱乐或科技行业的人准备的。这改变了你进行MBA教育的方式。

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And of course that that then means that you've got to you've got to actually rethink your education at the MBA level because it's not somebody like you who's in finance and the way for you to get a promotion is to go back and get a finance MBA. No, that's not the story today. It's for somebody maybe who is in consulting who wants to move into entertainment or technology. That changes the way you do MBA education.

你在建立一些联合学位方面非常成功,这些学位结合了一些历史上没有联系的主题。给我们讲讲这方面的情况。

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you've been very successful in establishing some combined degrees which combines some on the topics which weren't historically linked. Tell us about that.

这是一个例子,你知道,我总是认为模仿是最高形式的奉承,我在沃顿商学院被深深打动的一件事是,那里有一些与宾夕法尼亚大学其他学院合作的优秀学位。所以有与工程学院合作的管理与技术学位,全球商业学位,亨茨曼项目,劳德学院。

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So that's a case you know I always think that imitation is the highest form of flattery and one of the things that I was just struck by at Wharton and you know this is that there were some great degrees with other Penn schools. So there was a management and technology degree with engineering, a global business degree, the Huntsman program, the Lauder Institute.

当我来到南加州大学时,我发现商学院真的非常优秀,但它相当封闭。所以,我只是想采纳和调整我在沃顿商学院看到的东西。所以,你知道,我们与电影学院有一个项目。南加州大学拥有世界上最好的电影学院。我们能创建一个名为“电影艺术商业”的学位吗?是的,我们可以。

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When I came to USC, I saw that the business school was really, really good, but it was pretty self-contained. And so I just wanted to um you know, adopt and adapt uh things that I saw at Whartoot. So you know, we we had a program with the film school. USC's got the best film school in the world. Gee, can we create a degree there called business of cinematic arts? Yeah, we could do that.

南加州大学工程学院最好的部分是计算机科学。我们正处于人工智能时代。我们创建了一个名为“AI for Business”的学位。我只是认为这些是可利用的机会。是的,你希望商学院在所有核心业务方面都做得很好。但南加州大学的其他部分是一个机会,我希望这是一个双赢的机会。它不仅对商学院有利,对大学其他院系的学生也有利。

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The best part of the engineering school at USC is computer science. We were in an AI age. We created a degree called AI for business. I just thought those were, you know, leverable opportunities. Yes, you want the business school to be good at all of the core things that business schools do. But the rest of USC was an opportunity and and an opportunity that I hope is win-win. It's not only good for the business school, it's good for students in other parts of the university as well.

全球化与地缘政治的经济影响

杰夫,让我们稍微改变一下话题。现在世界变化非常快,而且变得越来越交易化。以前合作的国家现在竞争程度更高。这对社会和世界有什么影响?

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Jeff, let's move tack a bit. Um the world is changing changing very fast uh now and um you know it's becoming more transactional. Um countries which previously cooperated are competing to a higher degree. Just what are the what are the implications for society and for the world here?

嗯,这就是我作为古典自由主义者(classic liberal:指支持个人自由、有限政府和自由市场的思想流派)的体现。作为一个经济问题,我认为全球市场的萎缩将是一个巨大的净负面影响。你知道,我认为美国关税辩论最终表明,回流(reshoring:将生产从海外迁回本国)是有真实成本的,那就是物价上涨。

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Well, this is where I'm a I'm a classic liberal in all senses. Um I at a as an economic matter I think the the shrinking of global markets is going to is a big net negative. You know I think the the thing that the tariff debate in the US is showing finally is that there's a real cost to reshoring stuff which is prices go higher.

你知道,我认为美国人,例如,没有充分意识到全球化在几十年来降低了美国物价和利率的事实。所以,我担心,我理解回流的政治和其他可能涉及国家安全的必要性,但它会带来经济成本。

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You know, I don't think Americans, for example, are sufficiently aware of the fact that globalization reduced prices and reduced interest rates in America for decades. So, I I I I I worry I understand the political and and other maybe national security imperatives of reshoring, but it comes at an economic cost.

我的另一个自由主义方面是康德Kantian:指德国哲学家伊曼努尔·康德的思想,强调道德义务和理性)的观点。你知道,康德说过,如果用我的话来转述(因为他是用德语说的,而且是复杂的德语,所以我只是转述),如果国家在经济上彼此了解得更好,如果它们能够共同参与活动,它们之间就不太可能发生战争。

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And then the other liberal side of me is the Kantian one. you know, Kant said that if we to paraphrase, it was in German and complicated German, so I just paraphrase, right? If if countries uh know each other better economically, if they if they can join activities, they're less likely to go to war against each other.

你知道,我认为两者都是真实的。所以,我是一个典型的自由主义者,鉴于今天的对话,我只是觉得格格不入。你知道,如果我竞选公职,我说全球市场是好的,它们会降低战争的可能性,所以我们应该拥抱它们。我今天不会得到很多选票。

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And you know, I think both are true. So, so I'm a classic liberal and I just feel, you know, out of out of place given the the dialogue today. you know, if I was running for public office and I said global markets are good and they're reduce the the prospect of war, so we should, you know, let's embrace them. I'm I'm not getting very many votes today.

所以,我认为对于像我这样对“全球化是好事”有偏见的人来说,挑战在于以一种可能改变一些人心和思维的方式参与这些新辩论,但这不会容易。

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So, I think the challenge for people who have my predelections about global is good is to engage with these new debates in a way that can maybe change some hearts and minds, but it's not going to be easy.

电动汽车:洞察全球变局的窗口

显然,我听你说过,你可以通过电动汽车EVs:Electric Vehicles,以电能驱动的汽车)的视角来看待世界。你能解释一下吗?

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Obviously, h I've heard you say that you can look at the the world through the lens of electrical vehicles. What do you could you explain that?

嗯,我会的,但你必须告诉我挪威是如何以及为何能够基本上淘汰内燃机的,特别是考虑到电动汽车在寒冷天气下表现不佳。所以,你能先回答这个问题,然后我再告诉你我对电动汽车的看法吗?

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Well, uh I will, but you've got to tell me how and why Norway was able to essentially to eliminate uh combustion engines particularly when we know electric vehicles don't do so well in cold weather. So, can you answer that first and then I'll I'll give you my perspective on EVs?

我认为这真的很有趣。你知道这个国家,但这个国家花了很多钱补贴电动汽车,并取得了巨大成功。所以,我认为现在新售汽车中大约90%是电动汽车。

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Well, I think it's really interesting. you know the country but the country has spent a lot of money uh subsidizing electrical vehicles but with huge success and so I think the number now is something like 90% of new cars sold are electrical.

它伴随着一个巨大的充电网络遍布全国,所以你可以在出租车道上行驶,你不需要支付每年的汽车拥有费等等。所以坦率地说,如果你不买电动汽车,你简直就是个傻瓜,我的意思是,不买电动汽车在经济上根本说不通。

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um it uh came with a huge uh charging network across the country so that you could uh you know so that was not a problem and you could drive in the taxi lane um and you had you didn't have to pay uh you know yearly fees to to own the car and so on. So to be frank if you didn't buy an electrical vehicle you were a total you know I mean it just didn't make it didn't make any economic sense not to buy one.

当然,许多国家都为电动汽车提供了补贴,但这不一定奏效。所以,你知道在美国,美国现在是化石燃料出口国,正如你所知,汽油在美国比世界上任何地方都便宜。挪威,你是我最后一个需要告诉挪威是石油超级大国的人。所以有趣的是,这种逻辑(我认为它使电动汽车在美国更难推广)在挪威却没有出现。

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and of course lots of countries have created subsidies for electric vehicles but doesn't necessarily work. So you know in the US right the US is now a fossil fuel exporter and as you know uh petrol is cheaper in the US than anywhere else in the world. Norway is you're the last person I need to say to that Norway is a you know an oil superpower. Um so it's interesting that that that logic which I think is making EVs harder in the US didn't didn't obtain in uh in Norway.

但关于补贴和监管的第二点,我认为在未来将非常重要,因为中国的电动汽车,尤其是比亚迪(BYD),也许还有小米(Xiaomi),将成为一股变革性的力量。我认为这并非夸大其词,中国电动汽车的崛起对全球经济来说是一股变革性的力量。

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But the second point about subsidies and regulatory stuff I think is going to be so important going forward because the the Chinese EV and BYD above all but maybe Xiaomi as well that is going to be that that is a transformative I I think this is not an exaggeration that's a transformative force for the global economy the rise of the Chinese electric vehicle.

欧洲和美国的问题是,我们该怎么办?对吧?而特朗普今天的答案可能是。也许今天,也许明天。我不知道播客何时会发布。特朗普的直觉是,如果我对进口电动汽车征收足够高的关税,人们就必须在美国制造它们。让我们看看这是否奏效。

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and the question in Europe in the US is what are we going to do about that right and the the the Trump answer today is maybe. Maybe today, maybe tomorrow. I I don't know when the podcast will come out. The the Trump instinct is if I make tariffs high enough on uh imported electric vehicles, people have to make them in the United States. Let's see if that works.

如果我今天在德国,你知道,大众汽车(VW)在其历史上首次考虑在本十年内关闭一些工厂,那么对话就更加艰难,因为当然,德国政府和德国公民希望保护德国汽车工业,但他们知道,如果他们保护它免受中国电动汽车的冲击,中国人将无法进入他们需要的中国市场,对吧?

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If I was in Germany today, you know, where VW for the first time in its history is thinking of closing some plants in this decade, the conversation is even harder because of course the German government and German citizens want to protect the German auto industry, but they know if they protect it against Chinese electric vehicles, the Chinese, they're not going to have access to the Chinese market, which they need, right?

所以,也许回到电动汽车这个洞察世界一切的窗口,地缘政治因素是显而易见的,但也要考虑其他一些因素。我的意思是,就业。我没有意识到电动汽车组装起来如此简单,这会带来就业影响。你只需要比传统内燃机汽车少得多的工人来组装一辆电动汽车。

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So, so maybe back to YZV's uh window into everything in the world, the geopolitical element is clear, but think about some of the other elements as well. I mean, employment. I didn't realize the employment effects of the fact that electric vehicles are so much simpler to assemble. You just need many, many fewer workers to put together an EV than a traditional combustion engine.

所以,让我们谈谈就业后果,以及我们如何看待制造业工作和汽车工作的价值,这是一个欧洲和美国的共同话题。然后是第三个要素,让我们谈谈绿色能源方面。我们知道,整个绿色能源供应链现在由中国主导。我们也知道,绿色能源供应链中的许多东西都非常,而且耗电

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So let's talk employment consequences and how we think about you know the value of manufacturing jobs and auto jobs a European conversation American one too and then the third element let's just go with uh with the green energy side so the we know that the the the entire green energy supply chain now is dominated by China um we also know that a lot of stuff in the green energy supply chain is very dirty power intensive.

你知道,我花了很多时间在印度尼西亚。印度尼西亚认为镍矿开采是他们的未来。镍矿开采不是一项令人愉快的工作,但如果你想拥有更长续航里程的电动汽车,你就需要它。

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you know I've been spending a bunch of time in Indonesia. Indonesia thinks that nickel mining is their future. Nickel mining is not a pleasant business, but you need it if you're going to if you're going to have longer range electric vehicles.

所以,是的,我确实认为,对我来说,思考这个问题的最高层次方式是,如果我们思考20世纪,也许内燃机是20世纪最重要的发展。我们可以对此进行辩论,但如果我们随后在大约二十年的时间里淘汰内燃机,那将是非常惊人的。

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So, yeah, I do think the the you know the that maybe the highest level uh way to think about this for me is if we think about the 20th century, probably the internal combustion engine was the most the most important development of the 20 20th century. We could debate that, but if we then in a like a two decade period do away with uh internal combustion engines, that'd be pretty amazing.

对未来领导者的建议

在我们在这次播客中描绘的背景下,你对有抱负的领导者有什么建议?

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Against the backdrop uh we've kind of painted here uh during this podcast, what what is your advice to aspiring leaders?

对于有抱负的领导者,我将从学生的角度来思考。第一个我们已经提到了,就是我的两个“C”开头的词语:保持好奇心,并真正了解情境。对于年轻人来说,我认为情境始于他们是谁,以及他们如何与他人互动。

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Aspiring leaders, I'll think about that in the in terms of students. So the first one we've already mentioned is my two Cwords. be curious and really be aware of context. And for young people, I think the context begins with who they are and how they interact with others.

然后,你知道,我总是被问到关于职业规划的智慧之言。我只是认为那是一种愚蠢,对吧?生活对我们很多人来说都不是线性的。我的意思是,我不知道你是否也有同感,但我肯定过着一种我无法规划的生活,因为我不知道它存在。

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And then, you know, I get asked all the time for have wise words of wisdom about planning your career. I just think that that's a a a folly, right? The life is going to life is not linear for many of us, any of us. I mean, I don't know whether you feel that way, but I certainly, you know, I've lived a life that I couldn't have planned because I didn't know it existed.

所以,与其试图制定一个五年或十年计划,我认为你更应该做好准备。这是UCLA篮球教练约翰·伍登John Wooden:美国著名大学篮球教练,以其成功和哲学闻名)说过的话,他说,好的结果是机会和准备结合在一起的地方。你知道,你想要做好准备,但我认为你总是应该在做决定时思考开启机会,而不是关闭它们。

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So, rather than trying to develop a five or 10 year plan, I think you want to prepare yourself. This is uh the UCLA basketball coach, famous basketball coach John Wooden said something like, you know, good outcomes are where uh opportunity and preparation come together. you know, you want to be prepared, but I think you want to go into decisions always thinking about opening up opportunities rather than closing them off.

所以,保持对期权价值的敏感度,增加期权价值,我认为选择性对我来说非常有意义。

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So, having antenna up for option value, increasing option value, I think optionality just makes a lot of sense to me.

嗯,杰夫,你一如既往地非常好奇。能与你互动真是太棒了。非常感谢你给我个人提供的所有建议,现在你又与我们所有的播客听众分享了这些。所以,非常感谢。

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Well, uh Jeff, you for sure are uh very curious as always. It's been fantastic interacting with you. Big thanks for all your advice that I have got personally and now uh that you have shared with uh all our podcast uh listeners. So, a big thanks.

所有的感谢都归于你,尼古拉,不仅因为你给了我这个机会,还因为你为世界所做的一切,以及你为播客所做的一切。我的意思是,我一开始说过的话,我真的相信,你与商界所有最杰出的人才建立了投资关系,而你现在将所有这些都与所有收听你播客的人分享。我只是认为这是一个很棒的倡议。所以,谢谢你,祝贺你,也谢谢你邀请我。谢谢。

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The thanks are all to you, Nikolai, not only for giving me this opportunity, but for all you're doing in the world and all you're doing with the podcast. I mean, the the something I said at the beginning, I really believe the you know, you have investment relationships with all the greatest minds in business and the fact that you're now sharing all of that with all the people who consume your podcast. I just think that was a fantastic initiative. So, thank you and congratulations for that and thanks and thanks for having me. Thank you.

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