甲烷:应对气候变化的紧急刹车与非洲的韧性之路 TED 2025-11-18

垃圾填埋场的甲烷之患

你闻过垃圾填埋场的味道吗?

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Have you ever smelled a landfill?

嗯,那种气味可能还不是它产生的最糟糕的东西。

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Well, that smell is probably not the worst thing that it produces.

最糟糕的是甲烷(Methane: 一种强效温室气体)。

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Methane gas is.

你无法看到或闻到它,直到它着火。

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And you cannot see it or smell it until it catches fire.

不幸的是,这正是非洲大陆许多城市正在发生的事情。

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And that's unfortunately what's been happening in many cities across the continent.

在达喀尔、阿克拉、坎帕拉、卢萨卡,以及最近在南非彼得马里茨堡的垃圾填埋场都发生了火灾。

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In Dakar, in Accra, in Kampala, in Lusaka, and recently at the Pietermaritzburg landfill in South Africa.

现在,想象一下你是成千上万受那场火灾影响的孩子之一。

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Now just imagine being one of the thousands of kids affected by that fire.

你每一次呼吸都伴随着胸闷和更剧烈的头痛。

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Every breath you take is kind of a tighter chest, a sharper headache.

这真是不可接受。

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It's really unacceptable.

这些垃圾填埋场着火的原因有很多。

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And these landfills, they catch fire for many reasons.

其中一个原因是,我们不断将有机废物送往那里,这些废物在缺氧条件下腐烂,为甲烷的产生创造了条件。

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One of them is that we keep sending organic waste there that decays in the absence of oxygen, creating the conditions for methane to come up.

我们知道有很多方法可以解决危险垃圾填埋场的问题。

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There's many ways that we know how to solve this question of dangerous landfills.

首先,停止生产那么多废物并将其送往那里。

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First of all, stop producing as much waste and sending it there.

对已有的废物进行分类和处理,并从根本上改善这些场所的管理。

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Sort and treat what's already there and radically improve the governance of those sites.

做好这些工作会带来立竿见影的好处,特别是对居住在附近的人群。

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Doing that homework has immediate benefits, particularly for populations living nearby.

它能改善空气质量,并降低火灾风险。

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It improves air quality and it reduces the risk of fire.

事实证明,处理这些垃圾填埋场产生的甲烷,在全球气候变化的应对中扮演着非常重要的角色。

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And it turns out that addressing methane out of these landfills plays a very important role in tackling the global question of climate change.

甲烷:强效温室气体与气候行动的机遇

我是一名社会经济发展专业人士。

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I’m a social economic development professional.

我的职业生涯大部分时间都在研究非洲大陆如何在民主、安全和经济机遇的交汇点上转型,以满足其人民的需求和抱负。

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I've spent the bulk of my career looking at how this continent transforms to meet the demands and the ambitions of its people at the intersection of democracy, security and economic opportunity.

对我来说,要达到一定程度的可持续发展,将气候问题纳入我们的计划始终是显而易见的。

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And it's kind of always been clear to me to get to a certain degree of sustainable development, we need to embed climate in our plans.

我加入了全球甲烷中心(Global Methane Hub),现在已经非常清楚,有效的气候进展也需要对甲烷采取行动。

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And I’ve joined the Global Methane Hub, and it’s become abundantly clear that effective climate progress also requires methane action.

这是因为甲烷是一种如此强大的温室气体(Greenhouse Gas: 能够吸收并重新辐射地球表面热量的气体,导致地球变暖)。

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And that is because methane is such a powerful greenhouse gas.

它对我们今天正在经历的净升温贡献了高达45%。

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It has contributed up to 45 percent of the net warming that we're experiencing today.

这是因为它在20年内捕获热量的能力是二氧化碳的86倍。

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That's because it is 86 times more powerful at trapping heat than carbon dioxide is over 20 years.

我们所有人都知道,我们必须同时做很多事情来解决气候和发展的问题,而长期的脱碳(Decarbonization: 减少或消除碳排放的过程)是主要目标之一。

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And all of you, and myself, we know that we've got to do so many things simultaneously to address this question of both climate and development, and long-term decarbonization is one of the primary goals.

但甲烷为我们提供了额外的机会。

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But methane offers us an additional opportunity.

如果我们能在未来20年内共同努力将甲烷排放量减少50%,这将使我们有机会将全球变暖的速度降低0.3摄氏度。

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If we're able to come together and reduce methane emissions by 50 percent over the next 20 years, it allows us the opportunity to lower the rate of global warming by 0.3 degrees Celsius.

这听起来可能不多,但它是一条生命线。

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That may not sound like much, but it is a lifeline.

它也是我们所知的最有效的方法之一,可以减少短期气候引起的脆弱性,这在全球范围内都非常重要,但对于这个受气候变化影响尤为严重的非洲大陆来说,更是至关重要。

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It is also one of the most effective ways that we know of to reduce short-term climate-induced vulnerability, and that is important all over the globe, obviously, but it is critically important for this continent that's disproportionately affected by the effects of climate change.

我们每年高达5%的经济产出因不利气候事件而损失。

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We lose up to five percent of our yearly economic output to adverse climate events.

适应气候变化的社会和经济成本正在飙升,高达500亿美元以上。

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The costs of adapting societies, our societies and our economies, to changing climate are skyrocketing, upwards of 50 billion dollars.

因此,解决短期脆弱性并非可有可无,而是我们在建设长期韧性过程中的当务之急。

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So this idea of addressing short-term vulnerability, it’s not a nice-to-have, it's an imperative as we build towards long-term resilience.

非洲的挑战与机遇:发展与减排的平衡

看,60%导致脆弱性的排放来自传统上与经济进步相关的部门:化石燃料能源、废物管理和卫生设施,以及农业、水稻生产和畜牧业。

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And look, 60 percent of these vulnerability-inducing emissions come from sectors that have traditionally been associated with economic progress: fossil fuel energy, waste management and sanitation, as well as agriculture, rice production and livestock.

你们身后看到的这张地图显示了过去50年的累计排放量。

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And what you're seeing behind me is a map that shows you cumulative emissions over the past 50 years.

如果你眼尖,你会发现有些地区的排放量远高于其他地区,如果我们要实现集体目标,它们需要更快、更大幅度地解决自身的排放问题。

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You have sharp eyes, and you're seeing that some regions are emitting a lot more than others and need to do a lot more and a lot faster to address their own emissions if we're going to meet our collective objectives.

这张地图显示的是2023年人均排放量。

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This map shows you per capita, emissions per person in 2023.

同样,眼尖的你会注意到非洲的碳足迹低于许多其他地区。

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Again, sharp eyes. You'll notice that Africa has a lower footprint than many other regions.

但这正在改变。

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But that is changing.

它正在改变,因为我们的人口在增长,我们的经济也在增长。

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It's changing because we're growing populations, we're growing our economies.

因此,我们必须接受这种双重性:我们绝对需要引入一种新的发展模式,迅速使人们摆脱贫困,创造机会,提供更多尊严;但同时,也要以一种最大限度减少这些导致我们今天困扰的脆弱性排放的方式来实现。

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And so we've kind of got to embrace this duality where we absolutely need to usher in a new developmental model that rapidly lifts people out of poverty, creates opportunity and provides for more dignity, but to do so in a way that minimizes these emissions that are creating the vulnerability that plagues us today.

幸运的是,这在非洲大陆正以多种方式发生。

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And luckily, it's happening in many ways on the continent.

社区驱动的解决方案:从垃圾填埋到能源转型

让我们回顾一下我们讨论过的那些燃烧的垃圾填埋场。

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Let's think back to those burning landfills that we discussed.

在德班,情况正在发生变化。

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Well, in Durban, a different picture is coming up.

各种组织,包括公民社会、政府官员和研究机构,共同努力确保更少或没有有机废物最终进入城市35公里外的垃圾填埋场,从而有望限制甲烷排放。

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Organizations have come together, civil society, government officials, research institutions, to ensure that no or less organic waste ends up in a landfill 35 kilometers outside of the city, and therefore hopefully limiting methane emissions.

为此,他们与该市最大的两个水果蔬菜市场合作。

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And to do so, they've partnered with two of the largest city fruit and vegetable markets.

他们没有扔掉未用或未售出的农产品,而是将其收集起来并转化为一种资产。

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And rather than throwing away unused or unsold produce, they collect it and they transform it into an asset class.

他们将其制成堆肥。

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They compost it.

令人瞩目的是,在两年内,他们成功地将277吨有机废物从垃圾填埋场转移。

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Remarkably, over two years, they've been able to divert 277 tons of organic waste away from landfill.

他们为社区创造了可持续、安全、高薪的工作。

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They've created sustainable, safe, well-paying jobs for the community.

他们降低了城市垃圾填埋和运输的成本。

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They have reduced the city's costs in landfilling and transportation.

你看到的那些堆肥将改善城市公园的质量,像你我这样的家庭最终都能享受到。

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And that compost that you're seeing is going to improve the quality of city parks that families like yours and mine can end up enjoying.

这些都是实实在在的好处,它们也最终减少了甲烷排放,这就是社区驱动行动的力量,它以循环经济(Circular Economy: 一种旨在通过重复利用、修理和回收来最大限度减少废物和资源消耗的经济模式)方法为基础,是我们需要看到的系统性变革不可或缺的一部分,并且需要更好的政策、更好的融资和改进的治理来支持。

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These are real benefits that also end up reducing methane, and it is the power of community-driven action, underpinned by a circular economy approach that is part and parcel of the systemic change that we need to see and that needs to be supported by better policy, better financing and improved governance.

但我们也要谈谈能源。

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But let's also talk about energy.

化石燃料是全球甲烷排放的主要贡献者。

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Fossil fuels are a major contributor to global methane emissions.

它也是我们知道如何在短期内以低成本减少排放的部门之一。

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It is also one of the sectors where we kind of know how to abate at cost in the short term.

但我们也要非常清楚:这个大陆需要更多的能源来实现更好的发展。

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But let's also be very clear: this continent will need more energy for better development.

这对我们来说是一个生存问题。

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That's an existential question for us.

幸运的是,对于我们所有人,实际上是在这个房间里的所有人来说,未来几年这里新增的发电容量中,80%将来自可再生能源。

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And luckily for all of us, actually in this room, 80 percent of new generation capacity coming online in the next few years here will come from renewables.

如果我们能够将其与足够的投资和适当的规划进行战略性结合,它将加速我们实现能源结构多样化,摆脱对化石燃料依赖的能力。

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And if we're able to strategically pair that with adequate investments and adequate planning, it accelerates our ability to diversify our energy mix away from reliance on fossil fuels.

这首先对我们自身的能源安全非常重要。

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And that is really important first and foremost for our own energy security.

它也至关重要,因为它有助于我们在长期转型过程中减少今天的排放。

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It is also critically important because it helps us abate emissions today as we transition in the long term.

因为,请记住,特别是石油和天然气行业,绝对知道如何解决他们的排放问题。

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Because, mind you, the industry, oil and gas industry in particular, absolutely knows how to solve their emissions problem.

减少燃烧,检测并堵塞泄漏,改进测量,然后重复这些工作。

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Reduce flares, detect and plug your leaks, improve measurement, do it all over again.

他们有钱去做。

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And they have the money to do it.

只是没有以我们所需规模和速度发生。

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It's just not happening at the scale and the speed that we need it to happen.

我们不能仅仅依靠自愿承诺。

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We just cannot rely on voluntary commitments.

我们绝对需要强制企业行动的监管框架,因为否则我们就会看到这样的情况。

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We absolutely need regulatory frameworks that compel corporate action, because otherwise this is what we get.

这是一个燃气火炬。

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This is a gas flare.

它是与石油开采相关的甲烷气体的燃烧。

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It is the burning of methane gas associated with oil extraction.

它看起来既危险又浪费。

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And it is as dangerous, as wasteful as it looks.

它与高水平的呼吸道疾病和高烧有关,尤其是在儿童中。

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It is associated with high levels of respiratory diseases and high fevers, particularly in children.

令人震惊的是,尼日利亚尼日尔三角洲有200万人居住在其中一个燃气火炬的四公里半径范围内。

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And astonishingly, two million people in the Niger Delta in Nigeria live within a four-kilometer radius of one of these things.

那么我们该怎么做?

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And so what do we do?

我们进行监管、执行和追踪。

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We regulate, we enforce and we track.

这正是尼日利亚政府一直在努力做的事情。

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And that's exactly what the government of Nigeria has been trying to do.

它已经通过了进步的法规,以确保禁止燃气火炬。

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It has essentially passed progressive regulation to ensure that it is banning flaring.

挑战在于执行,但他们这样做是因为从公共健康角度来看是合理的,它能挽救生命,而且从根本上来说也具有经济意义。

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Enforcement is where the challenge is, but they're doing so because it makes sense from a public health perspective and it saves lives, but it also fundamentally makes economic sense.

它为政府从不合规行为者那里创造了潜在的收入来源,同时也减少了一个饱受能源不安全困扰的国家的能源浪费。

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It creates a potential revenue stream for government from non-compliant actors, but it also reduces energy waste in a country that is plagued with energy insecurity.

监管、强制执行和追踪。

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Regulate and force and track.

农业中的甲烷减排:以水稻为例

让我们谈谈其他事情。

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Let's talk about something else.

水稻。

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Rice.

有些人正在微笑。

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Some of you are smiling.

我知道你们喜欢它。

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I know you love it.

很多人都喜欢它。

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Many people love it.

它是一种主要的全球粮食作物。

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It's a major global food crop.

事实上,从东京到我的家乡几内亚科纳克里,数十亿人都在食用它。

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In fact, it is consumed by billions of people from Tokyo to my hometown Conakry in Guinea.

我们需要生产更多的水稻来满足粮食安全需求。

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And we will need to be producing more of it to meet food security demands.

水稻生产实际上既受气候变化的影响,又部分地促成了气候变化,因为它会排放甲烷。

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And rice production is actually both affected by climate change and partly contributes to it because it emits methane.

想想数百万种植水稻的农民。

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Think about the millions of farmers who grow it.

通常他们会淹没田地。

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Typically what they do is they flood their fields.

通过淹没田地,氧气无法进入土壤,这为甲烷的产生创造了条件。

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By flooding the field, oxygen cannot get into the soil and it creates the conditions for methane to emerge.

那么我们如何解决这个问题呢?

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And so how do we solve this?

我们如何确保在提高生产力和产量以满足粮食安全的同时,以最小化排放的方式进行?

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How do we ensure that we're improving productivity and production to meet food security, but doing so in a way that minimizes emissions?

在加纳阿克拉或其周边地区,11,000名农民正与他们的环境保护局(Environmental Protection Agency)密切合作,他们正在尝试使用一种名为替代湿润与干燥法(Alternate Wetting and Drying, AWD: 一种水稻种植技术,通过周期性排水和灌溉来减少用水量和甲烷排放)的方法。

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Well, 11,000 farmers in Accra, in Ghana, or around Accra, are working very closely with their Environmental Protection Agency, and they're attempting to use a method called alternate wetting and drying.

这种方法只在条件适宜时,允许他们自然地将田地里的水排出。

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This is a method that only when conditions are suitable and applicable, allows them to naturally drain the water off their field.

通过这样做,他们管理着极其稀缺的水资源,同时也在管理生产和生产力,并限制甲烷排放。

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In doing so, they are managing the incredibly scarce resource that is water, but they're also managing production and productivity, and limiting methane emissions.

这对于生产者、消费者和粮食安全都有好处,因为最终我们需要更具韧性和可持续性的生产系统,同时也能奖励小农户。

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That is good for the producers, it's good for consumers, it's good for food security, because ultimately we will need more resilient and sustainable production systems that also reward smallholder farmers.

我们不能止步于此。

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And we can't stop there.

我们绝对需要继续拥有多学科的空间,在其中为这些农民提供更多解决方案,更具成本效益的解决方案,风险更低的解决方案,这些农民是粮食系统所需系统性变革的核心。

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We absolutely need to continue to have multidisciplinary spaces in which we provide more solutions, more cost-effective solutions, less risky solutions to these farmers who are central to the systemic change that we want to see in food systems.

系统性变革、全球合作与治理

听着,我在这里描述的是一系列项目和倡议,它们本质上展示了气候发展与甲烷之间联系的一个窗口。

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And listen, what I've described here is a series of projects and initiatives that essentially show a window into the nexus between climate development and methane.

这当然不是万能药。

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And it's certainly not a panacea.

它们需要规模化,也需要改进。

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And they need scale, and they need improvement.

但它们确实展示了能够建立动力的进展,人们可以支持这些进展,因为他们能看到好处。

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But what they do show is progress that builds momentum that people can get behind because they can see the benefits.

我们无疑需要这种动力,部分原因是为了实现高发展和低甲烷的未来,我们将需要系统性的改进。

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And we will undoubtedly need that momentum, partly because to get to a high-development and low-methane future, we will need systemic improvements.

这也是为什么非洲国家一直在努力的一些事情需要更多支持,特别是在确保我们能够筹集国内资源和资本,使我们能够以增加非洲大陆自主权和决策权的方式,自我资助气候和发展。

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And that's also why some of the things that African nations have been working towards require a lot more support, particularly in ensuring that we're able to raise domestic resources and capital that allows us to self-fund climate and development in a way that increases agency and decision-making here on the continent.

例如,将非洲金融机构聚集在非洲俱乐部(Africa Club)周围,或者解决我们面临的极高资本成本,或者主权债务(Sovereign Debt: 一个国家政府所欠的债务)负担。

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Things like bringing together African financial institutions around the Africa Club, or addressing the incredibly high cost of capital that we face, or sovereign debt burdens.

解锁这些资本对于推动甲烷行动至关重要,因为不幸的是,全球范围内许多甲烷排放量正在上升,而且其中大部分被低估了。

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Unlocking that capital is integral to moving methane action forward, because unfortunately, a lot of these methane emissions are going up, globally, and much of it is also underreported.

因此,我们真的无法回避或摆脱治理和问责制的核心地位,我们首先在国内需要更多这样的机制,因为我们需要更好地管理我们的事务,但也要在全球范围内,以确保我们了解这些排放来自何处,以及如何公平地解决它们以实现更大的集体影响。

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And so there's really no getting around or away from the centrality of governance and accountability, of which we will need more of first of all at home, because we need to manage our affairs better, but also globally to ensure that we're understanding where these emissions are coming from and how we tackle them equitably for greater collective impact.

在这个分散的多极世界中,最终我们可能需要更多的而不是更少的协作,特别是以更具创造性和分散的方式,跨地域和跨学科地利用国内能力,以支持更好的科学研究和突破,提高全球数据测量能力,并获得更有效的融资选择。

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It's also the case that in this distributed multipolar world. Eventually we will probably need more rather than less collaboration, particularly leaning into domestic capacity in a much more creative and distributed way across geographies and across disciplines to support better scientific research and breakthroughs, to improve data measurement capacity across the globe, and to get to more effective financing options.

我毫不怀疑这个大陆将迎接挑战。

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And I have no doubt that this continent will rise to the challenge.

首先,因为摆脱脆弱性走向韧性符合我们自身的利益,但也因为这是必须要做的事情。

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First of all, because it is in our own self-interest to move away from vulnerability and into resilience, but also because it is a necessary thing to do.

我稍微谈了一下甲烷的一些协同效益,你们会听到很多这方面的内容,但也许换个角度来看更合适。

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And I've spoken a little bit about some of the co-benefits of methane, and you'll hear a lot of that, but perhaps it's fitting to flip the script a little bit.

也许当我们建设奖励更安全、更清洁、更宜居的城市,更具韧性、更有营养的粮食系统,以及更多样化、更高效的能源系统时,低甲烷本身就是这种更好的发展路径的协同效益,这不仅对地球有益,从根本上讲也对人类有益。

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Maybe when we build systems and societies that reward safer, cleaner and livable cities, more resilient, more nutritious food systems, more diversified and productive energy systems, low methane is itself the co-benefit of that better developmental pathway, and that is good for planet, but it is also fundamentally good for people.

希望这也是你们所有人都能支持的事情。

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And hopefully that's something that you all can also get behind.

谢谢。

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Thank you.

(掌声)

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(Applause)

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