规则秩序的终结
Stephen Bartlett: 现在有消息称美国要入侵格陵兰岛,伊朗局势动荡,特朗普从委内瑞拉抓走了马杜罗,还有关于中国收回台湾的传闻。这到底是怎么回事?
Original English
Stephen Bartlett: There's mention of Greenland being invaded by the United States. There's the situation in Iran. Trump has snatched Maduro from Venezuela. There's talk of China taking back Taiwan. What the hell is going on?
Konstantin Kisin: 你所看到的其实是西方正在变弱,这助长了我们敌人的气焰。这标志着一个共同神话的最终崩溃——即我们生活在一个一切都按规则行事的结构化世界中。那个时代已经过去了。特朗普的行为正是对这一现实的认可,他在说:我们不再玩那些别人都不遵守的虚假规则了。
Original English
Konstantin Kisin: Well, what you're seeing is the West becoming weaker and emboldening our enemies and the final collapse of a shared myth that we were living in a structured world where everything is done according to the rules. That is now gone. And Trump is acting in recognition of that reality, saying we are not going to play by the fake rules anymore that no one else is playing by.
Stephen Bartlett: 这种策略有风险吗?
Original English
Stephen Bartlett: Is there a risk with this strategy?
Konstantin Kisin: 当然有。我们可以谈谈其中的原因,我认为这非常重要。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰并非偶然,而是因为普京觉得现在是试探底线的时刻。他想看看:“既然西方已经失去了焦点和目标感,我们现在能做那些一直想做的事吗?”
例如,你可能不知道,欧洲人口占世界的 12%,GDP 占 25%,却占了全球 60% 的福利支出。德国摧毁了自己的核设施,从而依赖俄罗斯天然气。在英国,我们摧毁了自己的制造业,缩减了武装部队,因为我们感到如此安全和舒适,觉得不会有任何后果。
Original English
Konstantin Kisin: Of course. And we can talk about the reasons for it. I think it's really important. So, Russia invading Ukraine was not an accident. It was a consequence of the fact that Putin felt this was the moment to test the waters. Can we now do the things we've always wanted to do? Because the West lost its focus and sense of purpose. So, for example, I don't know if you know this, Europe is 12% of the world's population, 25% of the world's GDP, and 60% of the world's welfare spending. Germany destroyed its nuclear facilities, thereby making itself reliant on Russian gas. And in Britain, we've destroyed our manufacturing... and we've run down our armed forces because we have felt so safe and so comfortable because there's been no consequence.
西方实力的衰落
Konstantin Kisin: 后果已经显现。按人均计算,我们今天的钱比 20 年前还要少。我们承受着和平时期历史上最高的税收负担。我们正在赶走企业家,我们的全球权力和影响力已经在下降。这就是巨大的危险。但如果我们能做出重大决策,仍有机会扭转局面。
Original English
Konstantin Kisin: Well, the consequences are here per person. We have less money today than we did 20 years ago. We have the highest tax burden in peace time history. We're driving out the entrepreneurs and we've already seen a decline in our power in the world and our influence in the world. That's the big danger. But there is an opportunity to turn things around if we can make these big decisions.
Stephen Bartlett: 对于像我这样不常思考地缘政治的人来说,现在的世界极其混乱。每当我们看新闻,不是特朗普抓了马杜罗,就是俄乌战争,或者是伊朗和格陵兰岛。我想听听你对大局的看法。
Original English
Stephen Bartlett: There is so much going on in the world right now that it is incredibly confusing to somebody like me who doesn't spend a lot of time thinking about geopolitics or the bigger picture... But every time we look up at the news, there's Trump has snatched Maduro from Venezuela. There's the war with Russia and Ukraine. There's something going on with Iran. There's mention of Greenland being invaded by the United States. There's talk of China taking back Taiwan. I wanted to speak to you today to understand your perspective on the bigger picture here.
Konstantin Kisin: 我们看到的是二战后秩序的最终崩溃,这一秩序在苏联解体后曾演变为单极世界。1991 年,西方失去了焦点,因为我们觉得打败了伟大的对手,于是放松了警惕。
现在的框架正在迅速瓦解。很多人谈论国际法,但正如 Yuval Noah Harari 在《人类简史》(Sapiens)中所说,法律和金钱其实是某种“共同神话”。国际法比金钱更脆弱,因为它没有武力支撑。如果没有一个拥有军事力量的最高权威,当中国收回台湾时,没人能做什么。特朗普意识到了这一点:既然现在是“人人为己”,那我就要做符合美国利益的事。
Original English
Konstantin Kisin: Well, what you're seeing is the final collapse of what people have described as the post-World War II order... In 1991, the West lost its focus and its sense of purpose because we were like, well, we defeated our great rival... And what's happening now is that entire framework that we have had since World War II is disintegrating very rapidly. International law was... a kind of shared myth... Well, international law really was that, but even weaker than that... because for international law, there's never been anything that could enforce that law other than the most powerful country in the world, right? So if China invades Taiwan, no one's going to do anything about it because there is no overarching authority with the military to be able to do anything about it. And so that shared fiction that we had... is now gone. And Trump is acting in recognition of that reality.
核武器与多极化
Stephen Bartlett: 这在多大程度上与核武器有关?感觉这些大国只针对没有核武器的国家。美国不敢介入台湾是因为中国有核弹,美国对俄罗斯投鼠忌器也是因为核弹。世界是否正在分裂为几个核大国,只要有核弹,你想干什么都行?
Original English
Stephen Bartlett: How much of this is linked to nuclear weapons? ...It somewhat feels to me that the reason why the US wouldn't get involved if China took Taiwan is because they have nukes. And the reason why the US is a little bit intimidated by Russia is because they have nukes. So is it really the world is splitting into nuclear powers and anyone with nukes can do what the they want?
Konstantin Kisin: 这一直是事实,只是过去受限于“基于规则的秩序”。但西方,包括美国,必须承担责任,因为阿富汗和伊拉克战争彻底破坏了我们的道德公信力。如果你自己随心所欲地入侵国家,你怎么能指责俄罗斯侵略乌克兰?
我们不仅削弱了道德权威,也削弱了军事实力。如果我们不妥善支持乌克兰,必然会导致许多小国追求核武器,因为那是这个世界上唯一的安全保障。这就是核扩散的巨大危险。
Original English
Konstantin Kisin: And that has always been the case except we've been constrained by the framework of the rules-based order. But that got taken apart. And this is where I think the West and the United States including needs to take responsibility because the war in Afghanistan and Iraq even more so completely undermined our moral credibility... So we have eroded our moral authority and we've also eroded our military strength... If the precedent is that people with nuclear weapons can do what they want... what would be the most rational thing for you to do if you're a smaller country? That's the big danger.
英国的边缘化危机
Stephen Bartlett: 英国和欧洲在世界权力和重要性排名中处于什么位置?
Original English
Stephen Bartlett: Where does Britain and Europe sit in the sort of rankings of importance in the world and power?
Konstantin Kisin: 正在暴跌。看看特朗普对伊朗发动的为期 12 天的战争,摧毁了其核设施,甚至没人问过英国人的意见。这并非因为美国人讨厌英国,而是因为我们让自己变得无关紧要。特朗普看重的是实力。英国现在强大吗?不。欧洲强大吗?不。
如果你不强大,就不会被认真对待。我们的领导层见证了我们地位、权力和影响力的下降,以至于美国人现在看着欧洲会想:“我们为什么要和对我们没用的人结盟?”盟约就像婚姻,双方都得有所贡献。从美国的角度看,我们能贡献什么?
Original English
Konstantin Kisin: It's plummeting. I mean, look at the Trump's 12-day war in Iran, destroying Iran's nuclear facilities. No one even asked the British what we thought about anymore... The problem is we have made ourselves irrelevant because everything that Trump is looking at is strength. Right? Is Britain strong now in the world? No. Is Europe strong now in the world? No. And so if you're not strong, you will not be taken seriously... Americans are looking at Europe and they're going why would we be allied with people who are not useful to us?
Stephen Bartlett: 为什么我们变得不重要了?
Original English
Stephen Bartlett: Why don't we matter?
Konstantin Kisin: 因为我们拿不出任何筹码。尽管我们的士兵、水手和飞行员拥有极高的专业素养和勇气,但我们每年的债务利息支出已经是国防预算的 1.5 倍,正趋向 2 倍。我们每年还债的钱比花在国防上的钱还多。
英国的人均 GDP 今天比 2006 年还要低。我们的经济在衰退,摧毁了制造业,缩减了武装部队。而且,我们现在的政府在野时每天都在攻击特朗普。作为外交大臣,你不能如此轻率地评价美国总统,然后又想在重大决策中拥有话语权。行动是有后果的。
Original English
Konstantin Kisin: We don't matter because we have nothing to bring to the table... our debt interest repayments annually 1.5 times heading towards being twice our defense budget. We spent more on paying off the debt... than we spend on defense... Britain's GDP per capita is lower today than it was in 2006... And then you're going, well, you've just been calling this guy (Trump) every name under the sun and now you want to be relevant.
AI、就业与社会主义
Stephen Bartlett: 还有一个与社会主义兴起相关的点,那就是人工智能(AI)。我听到许多 AI 先驱和 CEO 达成共识,认为社会主义只会增加,因为 AI 导致的失业将非常迅速且极端。比如自动驾驶,开车是全球最大的职业之一,但现在我的车已经可以自己开了。
Original English
Stephen Bartlett: I think this is a really important connected point on the subject of socialism and the rise of socialism that we will see is this point of AI... there seems to be a consensus that socialism will only increase because the job losses associated with AI are going to be pretty quick and pretty extreme... driving is like one of the biggest employees in the world... and my car drives itself.
Konstantin Kisin: 是的。去旧金山看看,路上三分之一的车没有司机,这非常震撼。在一个没人有工作的世界里,我 100% 支持共产主义。如果世界上所有的财富都由机器人创造,而这些财富只流向 20 年前有创意的 50 个人,这种制度是无法维持的。
财富再分配将变得不可避免。你可以选择自愿进行,或者在刺刀下进行。这意味着每个人仅仅因为存在就能获得报酬。
Original English
Konstantin Kisin: In a world in which no one has a job, I'm like 100% on board with communism... If all the wealth in the world is going to be created by robots, a world in which the products of their labor only accrues to 50 people who had the idea... that's not going to sustain itself. And so wealth redistribution is going to be unavoidable in that situation. And it can either happen voluntarily or it's going to happen at the end of bayonets.
Stephen Bartlett: 那我们应该教给孩子什么?
Original English
Stephen Bartlett: What should I teach my children?
Konstantin Kisin: 很多人说教他们当水管工,但我认为 20 年后可能也不需要水管工了。你必须让孩子具备生活的基本技能:为人处世、机智、创造力,以及积极进取的精神。在这个现代世界,你必须展现出极大的灵活性,而不是预设一个职业生涯。
Original English
Konstantin Kisin: People are like, oh yeah, they should be a plumber. I don't think you're going to need plumbers 15, 20 years from now either... You're going to have to show a lot of flex in this modern world. So, you're going to have to be personable. You're going to have to be resourceful. You're going to have to be creative. You're going to have to go have a positive go-getter mindset.
追求真相而非意识形态
Stephen Bartlett: 你似乎非常执着于客观真相,而不是被任何一方的意识形态所俘获。你目前对“右翼”最不满的地方是什么?
Original English
Stephen Bartlett: What's unique about you is you do appear to be very wedded to objective truth as you see it versus being ideologically captured by either side... what is it about the right that you take most issue with at the moment?
Konstantin Kisin: 我称之为“觉醒右翼”(Woke Right)。这本质上是一种基于身份认同、怨恨和受害者心态的右翼运动。他们的世界观是自己受到了压迫,并将一切归咎于某些群体。主流右翼必须拒绝这些人,否则整个运动都会被污染。
右翼现在有一个巨大的机会,因为社会经历了太多的混乱,人们渴望秩序——渴望解决犯罪、非法移民和文化动荡。如果右翼能理智地处理这些问题,他们可以执政很长时间。但如果让极端分子接管,整个运动都会被贴上极端主义的标签。
Original English
Konstantin Kisin: There's something that I call the woke right, which is essentially an identitarian resentment victimhood-based movement on the right... The mainstream right has utterly rejected these people, which I think is really reassuring. But... if the right allows its extremist fringe to do the same thing, then lots of people are going to distance themselves from that. So, I think the right has a tremendous opportunity... There's a craving for that sense of order to come back.
Stephen Bartlett: 最后一个问题,谁是你生命中影响最大的非家庭成员?
Original English
Stephen Bartlett: Who was the biggest non-family member influence in your life and how did they make you a better person?
Konstantin Kisin: 我曾有机会和 Jordan Peterson 一起巡演三周。看到他近距离的样子,你会发现他在公开场合和私下里完全一致。他言行合一。
我记得在埃尔帕索,我们饿极了去吃牛排。每当他要动叉子时,总会有粉丝过来。他会放下叉子,站起来,给予他们全部的关注、合影和交谈。看到一个谈论以某种方式生活的人真正实践它,对我来说非常有启发。
Original English
Konstantin Kisin: I got a huge opportunity to tour with Jordan Peterson for three weeks... seeing that this is a man who the way he is in public is exactly the way that he is in private. And so he really one of those very very rare people who preaches what he practices... He puts the fork down, stands up, and gives them all the exact same amount of attention... And that was incredibly inspiring for me.