战线蔓延:美伊博弈与中东局势的全面升温
随着美国与伊朗冲突的重新燃起,中东(Middle East)地区此前短暂的停火状态已经宣告结束。美方表态称将对伊朗方面予以强硬回击,并指出不采取行动的风险更大。本周,伊朗向美国位于约旦的基地发射了多枚弹道导弹(Ballistic Missile:通过火箭发动机推进并沿弹道轨迹飞行的导弹)。作为回应,五角大楼(Pentagon)昨晚对伊朗实施了猛烈空袭,目标包括指挥中心、导弹与无人机基地以及监视设施。
随着冲突的演进,越来越多的国家正被卷入这场战争。近几周来,与伊朗有关联的武装组织已将约旦、沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克和也门进一步拉入冲突深渊。如今,埃及也受到波及,据航运跟踪公司透露,两艘船只昨日在疑似无人机袭击中起火,其中一艘为美国所有的天然气油轮。尽管目前尚不清楚袭击的幕后主使,但分析人士指出,伊朗正试图扩大战场,以证明其掌控了局势。非党派智库中东研究所(Middle East Institute)的专家向**《纽约时报》**(The New York Times)表示,伊朗此举旨在“夺取主动权,或至少让美国和以色列处于被动应付的境地”。
Original English Source
From The New York Times, it's The Headlines. I'm Tracy Mumford. Today is Thursday, July 30th.
Here's what we're covering.
"We're going to be hitting them very hard. Cuz it's our turn to hit them. They know it's coming. The risk is not to do it."
In the Middle East, what had been a short pause in direct fighting is now over as the conflict between the US and Iran has reignited.
"It's our turn. And we'll see if we get there with an agreement at some point, but we're going to hit them very hard."
This week, Iran fired multiple ballistic missiles on American bases in Jordan. And last night, in response, the Pentagon said it carried out a heavy wave of strikes on Iran, hitting command centers, missile and drone sites, and surveillance facilities.
The escalation comes as more and more countries are being pulled into the war. In recent weeks, Iran-linked groups across the region have helped draw Jordan, along with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen further into the conflict. Now, there's also Egypt, where two ships were hit and caught fire yesterday in what appeared to be a drone strike, according to marine tracking companies. One of the ships was a US-owned natural gas tanker.
It wasn't immediately clear who was behind the apparent attack, but analysts say that Iran has been increasingly trying to extend the battlefield. And they say that while the US and Israel went into the war promising a quick, decisive victory, Iran is trying to prove that it now has control of the conflict. One expert at the Middle East Institute, a non-partisan think tank, told The Times that Iran is, quote, "trying to seize the initiative, or at the very least, keep the US and Israel on their back foot."
在中东战火重燃并引发全球地缘局势动荡的同时,美军内部也正面临着另一场来自日常军事训练与非战斗任务的隐性生理威胁……
隐性震荡:美军与海岸警卫队的脑损伤职业风险
多年来,《纽约时报》一直在调查美国士兵如何在非战斗状态下,因日常工作而面临严重的创伤性脑损伤(Traumatic Brain Injury: 物理外力造成的脑部功能障碍)。调查发现,在训练中发射数千发迫击炮弹的炮兵、使用肩扛式火箭弹的海军陆战队三栖特种部队(Navy SEALs)、以及从航空母舰上升空被弹射的战斗机飞行员身上,都出现了脑部受损的迹象。如今,记者戴夫·菲利普斯(Dave Phillips)将目光投向了美国海岸警卫队(U.S. Coast Guard)的精锐救援队,他们的职责是冲入汹涌的波涛中执行任务。
然而,仅仅乘船穿过海浪就可能导致严重的脑损伤。其背后的物理原理是:当人站在船上随船只猛烈拍击海浪下落时,身体会像挥动的鞭子一样产生“鞭梢效应”。甲板上承受的力可能仅为重力加速度的6倍(6G),这完全在可承受范围内;但当这种力量传导并放大到头部时,会瞬间飙升至重力加速度的60倍(60G),这相当于经历了一场严重的车祸。许多小艇救援人员在任务后会持续数日出现头痛或宿醉感。随着长年累月的暴露,这些症状会恶化为失眠、严重焦虑和剧烈的情绪波动,甚至导致部分队员最终走向自杀。
戴夫发现,与美军其他兵种不同,海岸警卫队不仅缺乏针对脑损伤的常规检测,也未向队员进行海浪冲击危害的正式简报。海岸警卫队官网上关于脑损伤的板块已过期十余年,且“寻求帮助”下方的多个链接均已失效。在《纽约时报》介入调查后,海岸警卫队迅速面对应对,承认此前缺乏追踪和救助计划。目前,海岸警卫队已于近期启动筛查,限制队员暴露时间并监测相关脑损伤前兆症状。
Original English Source
Over the past few years, The Times has been investigating how American soldiers are at risk of serious brain injuries, not from combat, but from routine parts of their jobs. The Times has found, for example, that there were signs of brain damage in artillery crews who fired thousands of mortar rounds during training, and in Navy SEALs who used shoulder-fired rockets, and fighter pilots who were catapulted off of aircraft carriers. Now, my colleague Dave Phillips, who has led this reporting, has been looking into the Coast Guard's elite rescue teams, whose job it is to rush into rough waters.
"I was really surprised to learn that there could be a serious injury just from riding through the waves, but when someone explained the physics to me, it made total sense. When a body standing on a boat slams down into a wave, the body actually acts like a whip crack, and so a force that might be only six times the force of gravity on the deck, pretty manageable, by the time it whips up to the head, is 60 times the force of gravity, which really is the equivalent of a car crash. When I started talking to rescue crews that are on these boats, many of them talked to me about having headaches or feeling hungover for days after. And over years of being exposed to this, people developed really serious problems. It started with sleeplessness and headaches, and progressed into anxiety and really serious mood swings. And some people, as this injury continued to progress, actually died by suicide."
Dave says the symptoms crew members described are all classic signs of brain injury, but he found that, unlike other branches of the military, the Coast Guard had no regular testing for that, and no formal briefings about the dangers of the pounding waves. There is a section about brain injuries on the Coast Guard's website, but it's more than a decade out of date. And when you try to click on the links under the header, "Where to get help?" many of them don't work.
"When I reached out to the Coast Guard, all of a sudden they started discussing this and very quickly realized it was a thing that there's a good chance that their small boat crews are getting brain injured, that they're not tracking it, that they don't have a program in place to help these guys. And so, really in the last couple weeks, they've started looking at people to make sure they're not getting too much exposure and watching for the symptoms that might be signs of a brain injury. You can find Dave's full investigation in the Times app or at nytimes.com."
如果说前线士兵的身体健康受到军事体制的忽视,那么在美国国内,广大普通民众正因医疗保障制度的政策调整而遭遇类似的制度性困境……
医保退坡:补贴终结引发的美国医疗系统连锁震荡
在美国各地,大型医疗系统的管理层正纷纷发出警报:越来越多缺乏医疗保险的患者涌入急诊室。在部分医院,无保险患者的人数在一年内激增了20%,导致未付的医疗账单不断堆积。多位医疗行业高管将此归咎于国会共和党人去年终止了奥巴马医改(Obamacare:即《平价医疗法案》Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act)的强化补贴,该补贴此前帮助大量中低收入群体支付保费。面对高企的投保成本,许多美国人选择直接放弃参保。政府数据显示,自今年1月以来,奥巴马医改的登记人数已流失约300万人。
尽管特朗普政府坚称人数减少主要是由于加大了对医保欺诈的打击力度,但欠费账单的激增无疑暴露出广大民众在支付医疗费用上面临的巨大民生挣扎。根据美国联邦法律,医院被强制要求必须无条件救治急诊患者,无论其是否有支付能力,这使得医院不得不自行消化这部分坏账成本。这种“无保险危机”已产生严重的溢出效应:许多患者被迫推迟非紧急手术,而医院也开始关闭部分专科诊所,并缩减产科护理、心理与行为健康等关键公共服务。保险公司预计无保险人数将持续上升,为了弥补坏账缺口,医院未来或将提高针对有保患者的诊疗价格。
Original English Source
Around the country, executives running some of the biggest hospital systems are sounding the alarm that more and more patients are showing up to their emergency rooms with no insurance. For some hospitals, the number of uninsured patients jumped 20% in a single year with unpaid medical bills piling up. A number of healthcare executives attribute that to the fact that Republicans in Congress ended enhanced Obamacare subsidies last year that were helping many people pay for insurance. Facing higher costs, many Americans have now dropped their coverage altogether. Government data shows that since January, Obamacare enrollment has dropped by about 3 million people. The Trump administration says the decrease is largely due to a crackdown on fraud, but the rise in unpaid bills underscores how many Americans are struggling to pay for their healthcare. Hospitals say the result is that they're the ones absorbing more and more of the costs since they're required by federal law to treat people dealing with medical emergencies regardless of those patients' ability to pay. And beyond ER care, the rising number of uninsured Americans is having other knock-on effects. Health systems are reporting that patients are putting off elective surgeries, and industry experts say hospitals are starting to shutter individual clinics and cut services like maternal care and behavioral health. Going forward, insurance companies expect the number of uninsured Americans to keep growing. And to offset the losses, experts say hospitals will likely end up raising prices for those who are covered.
医疗保障体系的危机折射出美国宏观经济与民生维度的阵痛,而这种经济下行的阴霾同样深刻地投射到了曾经繁荣的传统实体产业中,以加州葡萄酒业为代表的支柱产业正步入寒冬……
繁荣退潮:加州葡萄酒产业的结构性衰退
数十年以来,加州(California)凭借卓越的地理与气候条件,确立了其全球葡萄酒巨头的声誉,产量占全美葡萄酒总量的约80%。然而,在经历了长期的市场繁荣后,该产业正迎来剧烈的拐点。由于消费者饮酒量减少,或转向即饮罐装鸡尾酒及硬苏打气泡酒(Hard Seltzer:含有酒精及果味的水基碳酸饮料),美国葡萄酒销量已跌至近二十年来的最低点,导致加州的各大葡萄园面临巨大的经营压力。
在旧金山南部,许多生产商因无法维持盈利,不得不将成片的葡萄藤连根拔起并付之一炬。记者萨利玛·卡曼洛(Salima Karmanglo)走访了当地一家拥有50年历史的家族酒庄,该庄主正关闭业务并清理庄园。在库存积压、渠道饱和的背景下,加州种植户预计将在本季收成期任由数十万吨葡萄在枝头腐烂。尽管行业分析预计该市场将在未来几年触底反弹,但届时或将有数百家酒庄倒闭。对于这一作为加州文化象征与经济支柱的标志性产业而言,这场寒冬正带来前所未有的剧烈洗牌。
Original English Source
In California, the state has spent decades and decades building its reputation as a wine powerhouse. It produces about 80% of all wine made in the US. But after a long boom, that industry is now taking a sharp turn. Wine sales in the US are at their lowest level in two decades as people drink less or turn to other options like canned cocktails and hard seltzers. And California's vineyards are feeling the pain.
"I recently went to a vineyard south of San Francisco where wine producers were actually pulling out their grapes, like tearing their grapes from the ground, and burning the grape vines cuz there's just no way for them to make any money anymore."
My colleague Salima Karmanglo went out into the field with one winery owner who was shutting down his 50-year-old family business and clearing out the vines. She says he's not alone. Other growers are expected to leave hundreds of thousands of tons of grapes to rot this harvest season because there's already so many unsold bottles of wine filling up storerooms and wine shops. The industry is expected to bottom out in the next couple of years, but by that time hundreds of wineries are expected to have closed. And this is a really dramatic change for an industry that is really fundamental to California, fundamental to the image of what people think about when they think about the state, and just an industry that for years had been growing and had been really successful.
在加州农业面临结构性洗牌的转型期,远在加拿大东海岸的一个沿海小镇,则在经历了一场因历史工业遗留问题引发的漫长环保危机后的破局……
恶臭终结:加拿大纽芬兰鱼露废墟治理的漫长破局
在加拿大东海岸的纽芬兰(Newfoundland)小镇圣玛丽斯(St. Mary's),居民们多年来一直饱受一种极其刺鼻的恶臭折磨。2000年代,当地的大西洋海鲜酱油公司(Atlantic Seafood Sauce Company)倒闭,遗留下了100多个巨型储罐,每个储罐容量高达3000加仑,里面装满了未处理的鱼露。由于缺乏维护,废弃的厂房年久失修,屋顶被风吹落,墙壁破损,使得泄漏的鱼露常年暴露于空气中,恶臭随风扩散。当地市长直言,这种味道相当于“将你这辈子闻过最臭的腐鱼气味再乘以100倍”。
曾有计划试图将这些废料倾倒进海洋,但由于环保原因,在移除几十个罐子后便被加拿大政府叫停。本周,在政府专项资金支持下,全面的清理工程终于正式启动。这是一项复杂的物流工程:工人需要将储罐切开,将已浓缩为泥状的鱼露污泥倾倒在旧厂房地面上,再使用泥炭藓(Peat Moss:具有极强吸水和吸附能力的天然植物纤维)进行吸附,最后装车运走进行掩埋。虽然整个清理过程预计耗时数月,但对深受其害的当地社区而言,这标志着长达二十余年的环保梦魇终于迎来了终结。
Original English Source
And finally, for years, the tiny town of St. Mary's, Newfoundland, way out on the eastern edge of Canada, has been tormented by a noxious smell. In the 2000s, a factory for the Atlantic Seafood Sauce Company shut down there. Maybe you can see where I'm going with this. Since then, over 100 giant tanks, we're talking 3,000 gallons each, have just been sitting there filled with fish sauce. And fish sauce does not smell better with time. Over the years, it's only gotten worse. With the company out of business, no one has taken responsibility for the factory, and the building has been falling apart. Parts of the roof have blown off, the walls have been damaged, leaving the fish sauce more and more exposed, wafting in the wind. As the town's mayor said, "Take the worst rotten fish you've ever smelled in your life and times it by 100." At one point, people hatched a plan to dump a bunch of the sauce into the ocean, but Canadian authorities put a stop to that after only a few dozen tanks were removed. This week, finally, a full cleanup started thanks to some new government funding. It is a big logistical undertaking. The tanks are now going to be cut open, spilling the fish sauce, now more like fish sludge, onto the old factory floor. That will be sopped up with peat moss, which will then be trucked away and buried. The whole process will likely take a few months. As the operation got underway, a local Newfoundland official declared, quote, "We couldn't be more proud than to be standing here today and watching this fish sauce leave this community."