蔡崇信访谈:阿里巴巴、中国经济与全球化挑战 Norges Bank Investment Management 2024-04-03

蔡崇信:从台湾到阿里巴巴的非凡旅程

Nikolai: 大家好,今天我们有一位特别的嘉宾来访,他就是阿里巴巴(Alibaba: 中国领先的电子商务、数字支付、云计算和娱乐巨头)的联合创始人兼董事会主席蔡崇信(Joe Tsai)。

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hi everyone today we have a special guest visiting uh called Joe Sai chair co-founder of one of the world largest companies with more than 1 billion consumers called Alibaba a giant in e-commerce digital payments cloud computing entertainment and much more.

阿里巴巴是全球最大的公司之一,拥有超过10亿消费者,在电子商务(e-commerce: 电子方式进行的商业交易活动)、数字支付(digital payments: 通过电子设备进行的支付方式)、云计算(cloud computing: 通过互联网提供计算服务)、娱乐等领域都是巨头。

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Alibaba a giant in e-commerce digital payments cloud computing entertainment and much more.

我们拥有该公司近2%的股份,而且乔,你还是一个狂热的体育迷,甚至拥有一支篮球队——布鲁克林篮网队(Brooklyn Nets: 美国国家篮球协会NBA的职业篮球队)。

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we own almost 2% of the company and you know what Joe is also a huge sports fan and you even own a basketball team Brooklyn Nets.

乔,很高兴你能来这里,我们有很多话要聊。

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so great to have you here Joe and lots to talk about.

Joe: 谢谢你邀请我,尼古拉,非常荣幸。

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thanks for having me Nikolai wonderful.

Nikolai: 那么,让我们从头开始,先了解一下你。你出生在台湾,但在13岁时移居美国。

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now let's start with the beginning just to get to know you a bit you were born in Taiwan but when you were 13 you moved to the US.

那次转变是怎样的?

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so how was that transition.

Joe: 那是一次非凡的转变。我来自一个非常不同的文化背景。

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it was an extraordinary transition I uh came from a very different culture uh.

我在一个非常中国化的环境中长大,上的是中文学校,所以13岁时当我抵达美国新泽西州时,我几乎不会说英语。

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I grew up in a chi very Chinese environment and went to a Chinese school so I barely spoke English when I landed uh in New Jersey in the United States when at age 13.

所以我上了一所寄宿学校(boarding school: 学生在校内住宿的学校)。

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so I went to a boarding school uh.

我认为融入大家并与大家成为朋友的最好方式就是多参加体育运动。

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I thought the best way for me to inte great and be friends with everyone was to play a lot of sports uh.

我参加了很多球队的选拔,但棒球队把我淘汰了。

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I tried out for a lot of teams I got cut from the baseball team.

Nikolai: 你打得好吗?

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were you any good.

Joe: 我棒球技术不好,但我身体素质很好,速度也很快。

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uh I wasn't good skill-wise in baseball but I was fairly athletic and had some speed right I was fast uh.

所以我尝试了美式橄榄球,我打了校队的美式橄榄球,高中时还打了长曲棍球(lacrosse: 一种团队运动,球员使用带网的球杆运球和射门),大学时也继续打长曲棍球。

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so I tried out for football American football I played American football U on the varsity team and uh uh also played lacrosse in high school and then went on to play lacrosse in college.

Nikolai: 在你的成长过程中,哪些人对你影响最大?

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okay who were the formative people in your upbringing.

Joe: 我的父亲。

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my father.

他是我认识的最聪明、思维最敏锐的人之一,但他非常严厉。

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uh he is one of the most brilliant uh one of the most sharp-minded people I know but he's very tough um.

我曾经很害怕我的父亲。

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I feared my father um.

Nikolai: 你现在还怕他吗?

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you you still fear Him.

Joe: 我仍然……嗯,他已经不在了,但他仍然像我生命中的一个“幽灵”。

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I still well he's no longer is he still kind of a bit of bit of ghost in your life still bit of a ghost.

但我认为这些年来,我觉得如果他还在世,我现在可以和他交谈,告诉他:“嘿,你知道吗,我的人生也取得了一些成就,可能可以与你的成就相媲美。”

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but I I think over the years I felt that I could now if he were alive I could talk to him and say hey you know I've accomplished something in my life as well and probably could rival your accomplish accomplishments.

但我仍然没有他那么聪明。

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but I'm still not as smart as he is you know.

我只是喜欢看到这些驱动力,我们每个人都有想要向某人证明的东西。

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I just love to to see these drivers we all have something we want to prove for somebody um.

从律师到投资者:在银瑞达集团的经历

Nikolai: 那么,在你加入阿里巴巴之前,你去了耶鲁大学学习法律,但你也曾为瑞典的瓦伦堡家族旗下的银瑞达集团(Investor AB: 瑞典瓦伦堡家族控股的投资公司)工作。

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now before um I mean you you went to Yale you studied law but before you joined Alibaba you also worked for the Swedish wenberg family the investor AB MH um.

那段经历是怎样的?

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what was that like.

Joe: 那是我有过的最好经历之一。

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it was one of the best experience I've had uh.

我从律师转型为投资者。

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I transition from being a lawyer uh to being an investor uh.

我在银瑞达集团的香港办事处工作,专注于私募股权投资(private equity investments: 对非上市公司股权进行的投资),那是我真正学习投资基础知识的地方。

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I work for inv in Hong Kong in their office and focus on private Equity Investments and it was really where I learned the fundamentals of investing.

我仍然记得他们给每个人发了一本麦肯锡企业财务(McKinsey Corporate Finance: 一本关于公司估值的经典书籍)的书,讲解估值。

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I still remember they gave everybody a book the McKenzie uh Corporate Finance book on valuation right.

那时你学会了如何做DCF模型(DCF model: Discounted Cash Flow,现金流折现模型,一种估值方法,通过预测未来现金流并折现回现值来评估资产价值)。

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and that's when you learn how to do a DCF model yeah.

那种纪律和职业道德令人难以置信,我非常喜欢那个环境。

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and and the discipline uh the uh work ethic uh was incredible and I love that environment um.

我至今仍与他们保持联系。

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I still stay in touch with him.

事实上,本周早些时候我来这里之前,我还在斯德哥尔摩与马库斯和雅各布共进晚餐,他们俩同时在场,这很罕见。

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in fact before I came in here earlier this week I was was in Stockholm and had dinner with uh Marcus and uh Jacob both both of them actually at the same time which was rare um.

我真的很享受那段时光,只是和他们叙叙旧。

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I I really enjoy that uh uh time uh just catching up with them.

Nikolai: 是的,他们确实是长远的思考者。

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yeah they are for sure um are long-term thinkers.

加入阿里巴巴:杭州的“牙刷俱乐部”

Nikolai: 你是如何最终加入阿里巴巴的?

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now how did you end up at Alibaba.

Joe: 我当时在银瑞达集团,那应该是我在那里工作的第四年。

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I was at investor AB uh I think it was my fourth year uh going into it um.

我于1995年开始在银瑞达集团工作,然后在1999年,我的一位朋友——我从台湾认识他,我们的父母也是朋友——他来找我,说你必须去杭州见一个人,马云。

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I started working at invest AB in 1995 uh and then in 1999 a friend of mine um who I knew from Hong uh from Taiwan uh our parents are friends as well he came to me and said you have to go to Hanzo to meet this man Jack ma.

他很特别,有点疯狂,但你应该见见他。

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he is special he is kind of crazy but uh you should meet him.

所以我搭飞机去了杭州。

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so I got on a flight uh to Hanzo.

当时香港和杭州之间每周只有两班航班,周二和周四。

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back then there were only two flights a week between Hong Kong and Hanzo Tuesdays and Thursdays.

我搭上了一班飞机,去了杭州见他。

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I got on a flight and I went to Hanzo to see him uh.

当我走进他位于杭州市一个名为“湖畔花园”的小区里的二楼公寓时,我看到外面有多双鞋子。

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when I went into this uh apartment he had a second floor apartment in uh uh the city of Hanzo and it's called laide Gardens it's in this complex uh I saw multiple pairs of shoes outside uh.

所以里面有不少人在工作,有工程师,有客服人员。

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so there were quite a few people inside working there were engineers there were customer service people.

当时马云创建了一个网站,让中国的中小企业(small medium-sized companies: 指规模相对较小的企业)作为出口商,能够向世界各地销售产品。

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and back then uh Jack had uh created a website to have small mediumsized companies from China that are exporters uh that want to sell around the world.

我们阿里巴巴的第一个网站,信不信由你,是英文的,因为它是面向西方客户的。

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and our first website believe it or not at Alibaba was in English language because it was customer facing to the West uh.

当时有工程师在忙碌,客服人员在处理事务。

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and uh there were engineers working away customer service people doing things.

我仍然记得他们有一个笔记本,上面记录着网站上每一个注册用户,当时有28,000个注册用户。

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I still remember they had a notebook of uh they wrote down every single registered user on the site and there were 28,000 register users at the time.

然后大约一个小时后,我和马云聊完,我说:“马云,我得去洗手间,我能去一下吗?”

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and and then after about an hour I chatted with Jack I said Jack I have to uh use the restroom can I uh use go to the bathroom.

我进去后,水槽旁边有大约10把牙刷。

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and I went in there uh there were like 10 toothbrushes uh next to the sink.

我当时想:“天哪,这些人24/7都在这个房间里生活、呼吸、工作。”

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I thought oh my God these people are 24/7 living breathing in this room uh working away.

那就是创业文化的开始,相当于一个车库创业。

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that was the star of culture that's the the equivalent of a garage right.

Nikolai: 你也加入了那个“牙刷俱乐部”吗?

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so did you join that toothbrush Club.

Joe: 我加入了,我加入了牙刷……我没带我的牙刷,但我离开时非常受启发。

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I I joined I joined the tooth I didn't bring my toothbrush but uh I went away very inspired uh.

不仅被马云的愿景和魅力所感染,还因为有很多人愿意追随他。

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not just by Jack's vision and Charisma but also the fact that there were a lot of people that are willing to follow him.

当时公司还很早期,他没有任何资金,而那些员工都是他的学生。

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it was very early he didn't have any money um uh and the people that worked there were his students.

他们为什么愿意追随他?一个领导者具备哪些特质才能让人愿意追随?

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why do they want to follow him what what what are the characteristics of a leader who people want to follow.

我认为最重要的是给人们描绘未来的景象。

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I I think the most important thing is to give people uh a sight of what the future looks like and what kind of.

Nikolai: 当时他给你描绘了阿里巴巴怎样的未来景象?

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and what kind of sight did he give you at the time of what Alibaba could be.

Joe: 当时我们的业务是一个B2B市场平台(B2B Marketplace: Business-to-Business,企业对企业交易的在线平台)。

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well at the time our business is a B2B Marketplace.

他说,随着中国即将加入WTO(World Trade Organization: 世界贸易组织,旨在促进全球贸易自由化的国际组织),所有这些中小企业都希望在全球开展业务。

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and he said on the cuss of China joining the WTO uh all these small mediumsized companies want to do business around the world.

阿里巴巴当时的使命,现在仍然是,让天下没有难做的生意。

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and alibaba's Mission back then was and still is to make it easy to do business anywhere.

我们的基因和文化就是帮助小企业尽可能地走向海外。

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and our DNA our culture is to help small businesses uh to to go as far abroad as possible.

这就是当时的愿景。

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and uh that was kind of the vision.

显然,我们后来发展成为一家大型的国内消费公司,以及云计算公司。

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and uh obviously we developed into a big uh domestic consumer company uh as well as cloud computing now.

阿里巴巴的腾飞:淘宝的崛起与商业化

Nikolai: 你是什么时候意识到这会变得非常大的?

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when did you understand that this was going to be really big.

Joe: 我直到2005年左右才真正意识到它的规模。

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I didn't appreciate uh the scale until around 2005 when uh that was you know six seven years into our founding uh.

那是我们成立六七年后,雅虎找上门来,说他们想投资。

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when Yahoo came knocking on the door and they said they we want to invest.

同时,eBay也在考虑投资我们公司,我们甚至考虑出售我们的小宝贝——淘宝(Taobao: 阿里巴巴旗下的中国最大消费者电子商务平台)。

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and uh at the same time eBay was also looking at investing in the company and we were even thinking about selling our little baby called Tau which today is the largest e-commerce Marketplace in China for uh consumer e-commerce.

淘宝如今是中国最大的消费者电子商务市场。

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which today is the largest e-commerce Marketplace in China for uh consumer e-commerce.

最终我们与雅虎进行了谈判,他们的投资规模非常大。

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and uh uh uh eventually we negotiated with Yahoo and it's just the size of their investment.

他们向公司投资了12.5亿美元,还在二级市场收购了一些风险投资公司的股份。

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they invested $1.25 billion into the uh the uh not not just into the company but they also bought out a number of VCS uh in a secondary transaction.

12.5亿美元的投资使公司估值超过40亿美元。

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1.25 billion that value the company at over4 billion.

我仍然记得那是夏天,我夏天去看望父母,那是我对我父亲说“我想我成功了”的骄傲时刻。

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and I I I what I still remember it was the summer um and then I saw my parents in the summer I would you know talking about my dad that was a proud moment when I said to my dad I think I've uh made it sort of um.

Nikolai: 但你是什么时候看到业务的真正潜力规模,什么时候真正感觉到它腾飞了?

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but when did you see the real potential scale of the business when did you really feel that it was taking off.

Joe: 这是一个好问题。

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it's a good question um.

业务规模的腾飞直到淘宝(Taobao)开始商业化才发生。

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the scale of the business didn't take off until when tbal started to monetize mhm.

我们知道淘宝在市场上有买家和卖家,发展得很好,但我们在商业化方面遇到了困难。

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uh we we knew we had a good thing going with tabal with buyers and sellers in the marketplace but we were having trouble monetizing.

2006年和2007年有几次尝试,但效果不佳。

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and there were several efforts in 2006 and 2007 that sort of didn't work out that well uh.

但后来我们找到了一种方法,我们基本上通过搜索广告(search advertising: 在搜索引擎结果页面或网站上展示的广告)实现了市场商业化。

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but then we we got onto something we basically monetized the marketplace using search advertising.

所以你可以想象,你有一个像谷歌那样的方式来商业化一个像eBay那样的市场。

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and uh so you can imagine you you have a Google way of monetizing the marketplace on an eBay type Marketplace.

这很独特,实际上是阿里巴巴开创的新模式。

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and that was unique that was a actually new Pioneer by Alibaba.

我记得在2008年,我们的现金流开始呈指数级增长。

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and uh in I just remember in 2008 our cash flow started to uh uh go uh grew exponentially.

那时我们意识到我们做得非常好。

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and uh that's when we realized we had a really good thing going.

竞争、重组与用户体验

Nikolai: 当然,你不是唯一一个看到这里机会的人,所以你现在在几个业务领域都面临竞争。

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now there is um of course uh you're not the only one who have seen the opportunities here and so you have now competition in several of your businesses um.

能告诉我你们面临的最严峻的竞争是什么吗?

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tell me about the most serious competition you all facing.

Joe: 我可以列举一些竞争对手,你也很了解他们,你可能也投资了其中一些。

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I think the competition we I can name a number of competitors yeah uh and you know them too you probably invest in some of them uh.

我认为,当我们内部审视和反思过去几年时,我们落后了,因为我们忘记了我们真正的客户是谁。

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and I think our our uh when we look internally and uh kind of self-reflect over the last several years we have fallen behind because we forgot about who our real customers are.

我们的客户是使用我们应用程序购物的用户。

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our customers are the users that use our apps that are shopping and uh.

我们没有给他们提供最好的体验。

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we did not give them the best experience uh.

所以从某种意义上说,我们有点“搬起石头砸自己的脚”,没有真正关注价值所在,没有关注我们能提供价值的地方。

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so in a way we kind of you know stepped on our own foot and didn't really uh focus on where the value is where where we could provide value.

因此,作为重组的一部分,我们的新CEO上任了。

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and uh so as part of the reorganization our new CEO comes in.

我是董事长,但我与一位比我年轻12岁的CEO合作。

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I'm the chairman but I work with a CEO who's 12 years younger than I am and uh uh.

他非常非常注重用户,专注于产品、界面和用户体验。

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he's very very user focused focused on the uh product and the interface and the user experience and that's the most important thing for us.

这对我们来说是最重要的。

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and that's the most important thing for us.

Nikolai: 你们是如何纠正的?你们正在采取哪些措施?

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and how are you rectifying it what are what kind of steps are you taking.

Joe: 我们做的第一件事就是承认错误。

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the the first thing we did was to acknowledge mistakes um.

我们承认过去可能没有专注于用户体验。

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we've acknowledged that in the past we might have not focused on our user experience uh.

第二件事是重组我们的人员,改变组织结构以适应战略。

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the second thing is to reorganize our Personnel change the organizational structure that fits the strategy.

我认为这是大公司的一个非常普遍的问题。

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I think this is a a very common problem of big companies.

大公司固守其组织结构,然后不愿改变,因为人们不喜欢改变,他们不想换工作,他们害怕被解雇等等。

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big companies are set in their organizational structures and then they don't change because people don't like to change they don't want to uh uh change job they are afraid to be fired and things like that uh.

然后你开始将公司的方向适应你的组织结构,这不应该是这样的。

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and then you start to fit the company's Direction into your or structure it which should be it shouldn't be that be that way.

应该是反过来的,你应该定义方向,然后设定公司的组织。

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it should be the other way around you should Define what the direction is and then set the company's organization.

所以我们实际上在淘宝内部进行了重组。

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so we actually reorganize ourselves within tbal uh.

我们的集团CEO,他也是天猫(Tmall: 阿里巴巴旗下的B2C电子商务平台)市场的CEO,如果你看他今天的直接下属,他们与三个月前的直接下属截然不同。

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the our our the our group CEO who's also directly uh the CEO of the tal t-all Marketplace uh if you look at his direct reports today uh they're drastically different from who his direct reports were uh three months ago.

Nikolai: 但当时是官僚主义滋生,还是发生了什么,让你们没有看到市场上的变化?

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but was there like bureaucracy building up or what happened what what made you not uh kind of see the change in the in the marketplace.

Joe: 我认为这是人性的弱点,人们不喜欢承认错误。

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I I I think it's human nature that people uh don't like to acknowledge mistakes uh.

真正的领导者和优秀的管理者拥有那种自我反省的能力,能够说:“我可能有些事情做得不对,我做错了,我需要改变。”

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and true leaders and true good managers uh have that sense that have that ability to self-reflect and say I might not not have done something right uh I did this wrong I need to change they need to change themselves uh.

他们需要改变自己,但人性就是他们不会那样做。

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but it is human nature that they uh don't do that and uh I think we we we fell into that trap.

我认为我们陷入了那个陷阱,你知道,你必须“吃点苦头”。

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and uh it you know you you have to eat a little bit of Humble Pie uh.

我认为领导力的一部分是谦逊,你必须能够承认自己的错误,然后说:“好吧,让我们纠正方向。”

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I think part of leadership is humility you got to be able to admit your mistakes and say all right let's correct course uh.

但这是新的愿景,因为员工正在寻找方向,这非常非常重要。

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but here's the New Vision because employees are looking for that direction it's very very important.

Nikolai: 对于一家增长如此之快、股价飙升的公司来说,当这些情况逆转时,对公司士气有什么影响?

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what what is it due to morale in a company which has been growing so fast and where the share priz went through the roof when these kind of things reverse.

Joe: 过去三年士气一直不好。

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the morale has not been good good in the past 3 years uh.

我的意思是,这受到了多种因素的影响。

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I mean through a multiple factors first we had Co yeah.

首先是疫情,然后是中国经济在疫情后有所反弹,但随后又趋于平缓。

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and then uh the economy the Chinese economy uh sort of bounced back after Co but then it sort of flattened out.

竞争是另一个问题,监管审查(regulatory scrutiny: 政府或监管机构对企业行为进行的严格检查)也是一个问题。

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and uh uh uh competition was another issue uh and also another issue was regulatory uh scrutiny.

我们支付了巨额罚款,但那些都已成为过去。

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we paid big fines uh but that's all behind us.

但所有这些因素加在一起,对士气造成了相当大的打击。

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but all those things combined was was quite uh devastating to the morale um.

但正如我所说,最重要的是员工正在寻找方向。

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but I as I said the most important thing though is employees are looking for a direction.

如果你能清晰地传达方向,那么他们就会重新焕发活力。

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if you can clearly communicate what the direction is uh then they will get rejuvenated.

中国消费者与经济前景

Nikolai: 稍微换个话题,你们的业务依赖于强大的消费者。

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changing um t a bit uh of course your business depend on a strong consumer um.

你现在如何看待中国消费者?

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how do you see the Chinese consumer just now.

Joe: 如果你看整个中国经济,中国约占全球生产总值的31%,但消费者仅占全球消费的14%。

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if if you look at the whole Chinese economy um China is about 31% of uh Global Production but uh the consumers only consume 14% uh Global consumption uh.

所以显然存在不平衡。

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so obviously there's an imbalance.

中国是一个净出口国,生产很多东西,但在某个时候,中国消费者应该变得更重要,并与西方发达市场相媲美。

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China is a net export country makes a lot of things but at some point Chinese consumers should come uh come into uh more significance and rival that of the western developed markets uh.

在中国,总消费略高于50%,而发达市场的消费占总经济的70%以上。

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in China overall consumption is slightly over 50% uh whereas the developed markets uh consumption is over 70% of the total economy uh.

所以潜力很大。

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so so there's a lot of potential uh.

但我认为今天的消费者受到几个因素的影响,这些因素抑制了他们的信心和消费意愿。

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but the way I see the consumers today is there's a couple of factors that kind of temper their uh confidence and willingness to spend.

首先,房地产市场低迷带来了财富效应。

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number one there's a wealth effect from the property downturn uh.

我认为平均而言,房价已经下跌了30%,当人们的资产,他们的很多财富都与房地产挂钩时,这种低迷发生时,他们就不会觉得自己那么富有,他们想储蓄,他们的消费倾向就会减弱。

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I think on average property prices have come down 30% and uh uh When people's assets a lot of their wealth is tied up in uh real estate they don't and this sort of downturn happens they don't feel as wealthy and they don't they want to save they want to uh propensity to spend uh is is diminished.

第二,我认为今天的年轻人仍然担心能否找到工作。

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uh the second thing is I think young people today are uh still worried about uh being able to get a job uh.

看看我们自己,过去几个季度我们通过自然减员减少了员工人数,并不是我们裁员,而是通过自然减员,我们没有招聘。

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just look at ourselves in the last several quarters we've had headcount reductions just through attrition it's not like we were laying off people but just through attrition we're not hiring.

我认为重要的是,企业,特别是私营企业,能够获得激励、信号和信心去投资和招聘人才。

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I think it's important that businesses especially private businesses are given uh incentives and the signal uh and the confidence to invest and hire people.

所以当人们对未来、对工作稳定性感到不确定时,他们的消费倾向也会受到影响。

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so when people don't feel very certain about the future about their job stability then their propensity to spend is also uh uh affected.

然而,消费能力是存在的,中国储蓄率很高,家庭现金仍然非常充裕。

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the ability to spend though is there uh China has very high savings rate and people uh household cash is still very strong yeah.

Nikolai: 我们曾预期中国在疫情后的经济复苏会比实际情况更强劲,听起来你也有同样的看法。

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we had expected the uh the upturn after covid in China to be stronger than what actually happened but it sounds the same it sounds like the same you had the same opinion.

Joe: 是的,我刚才说了,由于财富效应和未来就业的不确定性,目前消费者信心相当低迷。

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well just I I just said uh consumer confidence is quite low right now because of the wealth effect and uh uncertainty about employment in the future.

Nikolai: 你提到了监管增加,你现在仍然看到监管压力在增加吗?

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you mentioned um reg increased regulation are you still seeing um increased regulatory pressure.

Joe: 我认为监管压力没有增加,我认为监管框架现在更加清晰了。

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I don't think it's increasing I think regulatory framework is now more clear uh.

我们知道界限在哪里,如何保持在界限之内,而不是越界。

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we know uh what are the lines uh how to keep within the boundaries and not to overstep the boundaries.

所以,拥有这种清晰度对企业来说是非常好的。

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so uh having that Clarity is uh very good for business um.

中国:世界工厂的未来

Nikolai: 中国多年来一直是世界工厂,你如何看待这种发展趋势?

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now China has been the factory of the world for many years now how do you see this development going forward.

Joe: 哦,我仍然认为中国将继续是世界的制造业强国。

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oh I still think China will continue to be uh a manufacturing Powerhouse uh in the world.

尽管人口下降,但相对而言,中国人口仍然非常庞大。

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despite declining population uh on a relative basis China's population is still very large uh.

你看到经济中有8亿生产性工人,即使减少到6亿或6.5亿,那仍然是一个非常庞大且规模化的生产力。

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you're looking at 800 million productive workers in in the economy and uh even if that reduces to 6 600 million 650 million that is still a very SCA size sizable and at uh production Force at scale uh.

中国人勤劳,教育体系也一直很好,所以你拥有一支受过良好教育和技能的劳动力。

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uh the Chinese people are industrious and uh the education system has been very good uh so you have a well educated labor force and skilled labor force and uh.

相对而言,你知道,你看到很多回流(reshoring: 将生产或服务从海外迁回本国)或离岸外包(offshoring: 将生产或服务外包到海外),人们将供应链多元化到越南、墨西哥。

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just relative I mean you know you see a lot of uh reshoring or offshoring to people uh diversifying their supply chains to Vietnam Mexico.

但看看人口,越南人口大约1亿,劳动力是6000万。

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but look at the population I mean the population of Vietnam is about 100 million the working population the workforce is 60 million.

中国是其10倍以上。

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China is more than 10 times the size of that.

他们永远无法取代中国作为世界制造业中心的地位。

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they will never be able to replace China as the manufacturing center of the world.

阿里巴巴的AI战略与中国AI发展

Nikolai: 我们现在正处于人工智能革命的第二年,你们公司如何对待AI?

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now we are know in the second year in the AI Revolution how do you approach AI as a firm.

Joe: 我们是中国最大的云服务提供商之一,所以AI至关重要。

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we're one of the largest cloud players in China so AI is it essential uh.

拥有一个自主研发的优秀大型语言模型(LLM: Large Language Model,一种基于深度学习的人工智能模型)非常重要,因为它有助于我们的云业务。

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having a a good large language model that is proprietarily developed inhouse is very very important because it helps our Cloud business.

如果我们有一个很棒的LLM,并且其他开发者在其之上进行开发,他们就会使用我们的计算服务。

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if we have a great lln and other people other developers are developing on top of it they're using our Computing Services right.

所以我们认为AI对我们的云业务来说非常重要。

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so so we see AI as very much uh the left hand and right hand for our Cloud business uh.

另一方面,电子商务业务是AI最丰富、最有用的应用场景之一。

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and the other aspect is the e-commerce um business is one of the uh places where you can have the most the richest use cases for AI uh.

所以你可以在我们自己的模型之上,甚至在其他开源模型之上,开发很多非常酷的产品。

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so you can develop a lot of uh really cool really cool products on top of uh our our own model or even someone else's open open source model.

我们有多个开发项目正在进行。

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we have multiple development efforts going on.

在这些场景中,例如,你可以使用虚拟试衣间进行尝试。

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and in those scenarios for example you can try something on using virtual uh dressing rooms uh uh.

在我们的市场上做生意的商家将能够使用AI自动生成照片、产品描述等等。

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the our Merchants uh doing business on our Marketplace will be able to use AI to self-generate uh photos product descriptions and things like that.

Nikolai: 这是因为你们有更少的GDPR(General Data Protection Regulation: 通用数据保护条例,欧盟关于数据保护和隐私的法规)限制和更多个性化数据吗?

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is that because you is that because you have less gdpr and more personalized data.

Joe: 我不认为是因为更少的GDPR,我不认为监管……你知道,我们收集了很多数据,我们有很多关于消费者的数据。

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I don't think it's less GDP I don't think regulation you know we collect a lot of data we get have a lot of data of our consumers and we also have uh uh.

而且还有很多开源数据,因为大型语言模型的整个前提是你可以抓取网络并获取开源数据来训练你的模型。

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there's a lot of Open Source data uh because the whole sort of premise of a large language model is you can crawl the web and be able to get open source data to train your model.

这在美国是一样的,在中国也是一样的。

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and uh uh it's the same thing in in the US it's the same thing in China right.

但是我们能够进一步利用AI,结合我们自己的数据,我们对消费者和商家的了解,来开发垂直应用。

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and uh uh uh but we are able to use further use AI to develop vertical applications given our own data uh what we know about the consumers and the merchants.

所以这是一个美丽的结合,利用AI来改善我们的用户体验。

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so it's it's uh it's it's a beautiful uh combination uh using AI to improve our user experience.

Nikolai: 你认为中国在AI发展方面与美国公司相比处于什么位置?

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where do you think uh China is in the AI development compared to the US companies now.

Joe: 我认为中国目前是落后的。

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I think China is today uh behind uh.

很明显,像OpenAI这样的美国公司已经遥遥领先于其他所有人。

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it's clear that the American companies like open AI have uh you know really leaped ahead of everybody else uh.

但中国正在努力追赶。

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but China is trying to play catchup.

Nikolai: 你认为落后多远?

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how far behind do you think it is.

Joe: 我认为中国可能会有一个持续很长时间的滞后,因为其他人也在跑得很快。

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I think uh uh it China could have a a lag that will last for a long time you know it's not like you know because everybody else is running very fast as well.

Nikolai: 但你认为是一年、五年还是三年?你觉得呢?

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but do you think it's one year five years three years what do you think.

Joe: 我认为目前我们可能落后顶级模型两年。

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I think today we're probably two years behind uh the the the top uh models m.

地缘政治考量与美国芯片限制

Nikolai: 那么,你们在芯片和半导体方面的情况如何?

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now um what is your situation when it comes to chips and semiconductors uh.

Joe: 去年10月,美国对英伟达(Nvidia: 全球领先的图形处理器GPU制造商)等公司向中国所有公司出口高端芯片施加了非常严格的限制。

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so last October uh the US put in very stringent restrictions on uh the ability of uh companies like Nvidia to export high-end chips yeah uh to every company in China uh.

所以他们放弃了“实体清单”的方法,将整个中国都列入了他们的清单。

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so they've sort of abandoned The Entity list approach and they put the entire China you know uh on on their list and uh uh.

我认为我们肯定受到了影响。

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I uh think we're definitely affected by that.

事实上,我们已经公开表示,这确实影响了我们的云业务以及我们向客户提供高端计算服务的能力。

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in fact we've actually publicly communicated it did affect our Cloud business and our ability to offer uh high-end Computing Services to our customers yeah.

所以,在短期和中期,这是一个问题。

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so uh it is it is an issue uh in the short run and probably the medium run uh.

但从长远来看,中国将发展自己的能力来制造这些高端GPU(Graphics Processing Unit: 图形处理器,一种专门用于处理图像和并行计算的微处理器)。

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but in the long run China will develop its own uh ability to make uh these high-end gpus.

Nikolai: 你们自己也在做这方面的工作吗?

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and you are doing that yourself as well.

Joe: 我们在这方面有一些努力,但我们也在寻找其他厂商来采购芯片。

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we we have some uh effort of doing that uh but we also are looking at other players uh to Source chips from other players.

Nikolai: 那么,芯片短缺这个问题有多大?

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so how big um an issue is this lack of chips.

Joe: 这是一个大问题,是每个人都在努力解决的问题。

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it's a big issue it's something uh that everybody is trying to Grapple with uh.

不过,在短期内,我认为在限制措施出台之前,人们已经囤积了库存。

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in the short run though uh I I think prior to the restrictions coming down uh people have stocked up inventory uh.

所以目前,我认为在未来一年或18个月内,大型语言模型的训练仍然可以继续进行,因为人们有库存。

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So currently you know I think in the next next year or 18 months the training of large language models can still go ahead given the the inventory that people have uh uh.

我认为训练需要更多的计算能力,而不是应用,也就是人们所说的推理。

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I think there's more High Computing uh that's required for training as opposed to the applications what people call inference uh.

所以在推理方面,有多种选择,你不需要像英伟达最新的模型那样拥有高功率和高端芯片。

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so on the inference side uh there are multiple options uh you don't need to have as high power and high-end chips uh as the Nvidia uh you know the the latest model.

Nikolai: 如果你们的英伟达顶级模型和其他所有你们想要的芯片供应有限,你们的业务会有什么不同?

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so if you had had limited supply of Nvidia top models and everything else you wanted how would your business have look differently.

Joe: 我认为我们将拥有一个更强大的云计算业务,并且能够拥有那些希望从我们这里租用计算能力的客户。

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I think we will have a more robust cloud computing business and we will be able to have customers that want to rent computing power from us.

阿里巴巴的地缘政治考量与全球贸易角色

Nikolai: 这就引出了运营像阿里巴巴这样的公司的地缘政治方面。

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so this leads us to the geopolitical aspects of running a company like Alibaba.

那么,在运营这样的公司时,你需要考虑哪些地缘政治因素?

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now what kind of um um geopolitical considerations do you need to take when you run a company like this.

Joe: 我认为首先要了解所有的法规。

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I I think the first thing is to understand all the regulations uh.

我们需要确保我们在所有运营的地方都遵守法律和政策,这样你就不会触犯监管机构,也不会引起政客的注意。

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we need to make sure that we are compliant with law and with the policies everywhere we operate uh so you don't run a foul of regulators uh and then catch the attention of uh uh the politicians um.

这对我来说非常非常重要。

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and that's very very important to us.

我认为在合规结构方面,我们是全球最强大的公司之一,不仅仅是中国公司中最强大的,而是全球公司中最强大的。

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I think in terms of compliance structure uh we are one of the most robust companies around the world not just one of the robust Chinese companies were one of the most robust companies around the world.

我认为这非常非常重要。

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I think that's very very important uh.

现在,你知道,具体谈到中美关系,如果你看阿里巴巴,我们代表美国公司做了很多生意。

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now you know speaking of us China specifically if you look at Alibaba we do so much business uh on behalf of us companies um.

我们每年向中国消费者销售超过600亿美元的美国产品,这种贸易是双向的。

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we sold over $60 billion of American Products to Chinese consumers annually and uh uh that trade is two-way right.

在欧洲,你知道,大约140亿欧元的法国产品销往中国消费者,70亿欧元的德国产品销往中国消费者。

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and uh in in Europe uh uh you know about 14 billion euros uh of French products to Chinese consumers 7 billion German products to Chinese consumers.

这些都是人们不了解的非常棒的故事。

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the these are all really great uh stories that people really don't understand uh.

所以阿里巴巴对世界有益,对全球贸易有益。

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so Alibaba is good for the world good for global trade and uh uh uh.

在这种背景下,人们可以更好地理解阿里巴巴,而不是说“哦,你只是一家试图用廉价中国产品充斥市场的中国公司”。

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so set in that context people can understand Alibaba better uh and and really not say oh you're just a Chinese company that is trying to flood the market with your cheap Chinese products uh.

我认为让世界知道阿里巴巴在这里是为了全球化做生意非常非常重要。

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I think it's very very important for the world to know uh Alibaba is here to do business globally.

Nikolai: 除了芯片法案,还有哪些地缘政治紧张局势影响你们的业务方式?

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now in addition to the to the chip act um are there any other geopolitical tensions that impact the way you do business.

Joe: 总的来说,作为一家中国公司,我们在美国必须非常小心。

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uh just generally uh being a comp Chinese company uh in the US we have to be very careful uh.

例如,我们在美国没有多少面向消费者的业务,这是因为对数据隐私、网络安全等方面的担忧。

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so for example we don't have much of a consumer facing uh business in the United States uh and that's because concerns about data privacy cyber security and things like that uh.

这些都是我们未来必须应对的问题。

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and and these are some of the issues that we will have to navigate in the future.

西方对中国的误解

Nikolai: 你认为西方人对中国当前形势有哪些误解?

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what are some of the misconceptions that you see that people in the west have when it comes to the current situation in China um.

Joe: 我认为人们倾向于对中国进行武断分类,而很多真相介于两者之间。

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I I think people tend to be categorical about China whereas a lot of the truth is somewhere in between uh.

我认为关于中国是否值得投资的讨论相当荒谬。

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I find this talk about whether China is investable or not quite ridiculous uh.

你谈论的是世界第二大经济体,一支我之前提到过的非常勤劳的劳动力。

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you're talking about the second largest economy in the world uh the a very industrious labor force as I refer to before um.

8亿人正在非常努力地工作。

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800 million people uh that are working very hard um.

所以,我认为谈论是否撤出中国或是否值得投资中国是没有建设性的。

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so it I don't think it's constructive to talk about whether to pull out from China or investable in China uh.

我认为人们必须认识到,你不能与中国人民作对。

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I think people have to recognize that you can't bet against the Chinese people uh.

这是一个将长期存在的经济体,实际上对世界有益。

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this is an economy that'll be around for a long time and uh that'll actually be good for the world.

强大的企业文化与领导力原则

Nikolai: 你提到不能与中国作对,这让我想到企业文化和职业道德。

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you mentioned that um one can't bet against um China which kind of brings me to to corporate culture and and work ethics.

那么,对你来说,强大的企业文化意味着什么?

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so what um what is strong corporate culture to you.

Joe: 强大的企业文化意味着你认同公司的使命,你非常清楚公司的方向,并且你喜欢与同事一起工作。

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uh a strong cor corporate culture means that you identify with the mission of the company you see the company's Direction very clearly and you love working with your colleagues yeah.

你爱你的老板,你爱你的同事。

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you love your boss you love your colleagues.

我认为这始终是阿里巴巴的文化。

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I think that has always been the Alibaba culture uh.

我们有一句格言:“快乐工作,认真生活。”

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we are uh we have a saying work happily live seriously uh.

人们总是谈论工作与生活的平衡,但在阿里巴巴,我们说:“为什么工作与生活需要成为一种对立呢?”

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people always talk about work life B balance but at Alibaba we say well why does it need to be a you know a dialectic of work versus life uh.

当你来工作时,你应该感到快乐,因为你和朋友在一起。

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when you come to work you should be happy because you're among friends and uh.

Nikolai: 你一直都在工作吗?

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do you work all the time.

Joe: 不,我不是一直都在工作。

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no I don't work all the time um.

我不得不承认,我实际上已经找到了提高效率的方法,这样我就不必工作那么长时间了。

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I have to admit um I have actually found uh ways to become more efficient so I don't have to uh work.

我以前工作时间长得多,努力得多。

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I used to you know work a lot more a lot harder.

Nikolai: 你以前在办公室里也有牙刷。

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you used to have the toothbrush in the office.

Joe: 我以前在办公室里也有牙刷。

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I used to have the toothbrush in the office.

但关键是,你做了什么让自己更高效?

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but here's the thing and what what what do you do to make yourself more efficient.

我运用了一些我在体育运动中学到的东西。

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uh I apply some uh some of the things I learned in sports and Athletics uh.

Nikolai: 比如什么?

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you know like what like what.

Joe: 比如高强度训练几分钟,然后休息。

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like training high-intensity training for a few minutes and then you rest right.

所以,在某一天,我不想每天工作10个小时,一直非常努力。

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so on a given day I don't want to go 10 hours a day uh the whole day working really really hard.

我会进行两三个小时的非常紧张的工作,我会非常高效地完成一些事情,然后我会休息一下。

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I would go two or three hours very intense work uh I'll be very efficient and get something done and then I'll take a rest uh.

我会读报纸,或者小睡一会儿,或者出去锻炼。

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I'll read the newspaper or take a nap or go out for a workout uh.

所以这种间歇训练是我从体育运动中汲取并应用于工作中的概念。

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so this uh interval training is the concept that I I take from Sports and apply that to work.

Nikolai: 当你在办公室里进行高强度工作时,那是什么样子?

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what does it look like when you do high intensitivity work in your office what do you tell me.

Joe: 人们都很怕我。

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uh people are very afraid of me.

我会打很多电话,提出尖锐的问题。

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I'll make a lot of phone calls and you know ask tough questions um.

但我也喜欢我是律师出身的事实,以及在银瑞达集团接受的培训。

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but I also like the fact I'm I'm trained as a lawyer uh so I like and and as well of the training and investor AB I you know they taught me how to work a spreadsheet.

他们教我如何操作电子表格,我很多事情都亲自动手。

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I do a lot of things by hand myself um.

例如,如果我正在处理一笔交易,一个投资项目,我会自己起草条款清单。

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if I'm working on a deal for example an investment project um I'll write my own term sheet.

Nikolai: 你会关上门,不被打扰。

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you you close the door and have no interruptions and I mean how does it look like in your office what do what do you how do you operate.

Joe: 没有人喜欢被打扰。

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nobody likes interruptions uh.

但我很少在办公室工作。

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but some I I seldom work in the office um.

我总是在旅行,在酒店房间里,在飞机上。

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I'm always traveling I'm in a hotel room um I'm on the plane uh.

有时我只是打电话说我要待在家里,接下来的五个小时我将专注于做某件事,所以没有人应该给我打电话。

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I uh you know in uh sometimes I I just say call in and say I'm going to stay at home uh and uh in the next five hours I'm just going to focus on doing something so nobody should call me.

所以它从不固定在一个地方,总是在寻找那些不被打扰的时间段。

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so it's um it's never in one place it's always uh finding finding that chunks of time where I can I can be uh not bothered.

Nikolai: 你认为自己是一个好老板吗?

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do you see yourself as a nice boss.

Joe: 我希望是。

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I would like to uh.

我认为做一个好老板,我认为“好”并不是……因为如果你对人太好,你就会误导他们。

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I think uh being a good boss I think nice is not um because if you're too nice to people uh you are misleading them uh.

我认为一个好老板最重要的是要立即给予反馈。

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I think the most important thing about a good boss is you give him immediate feedback.

反馈不能是季度审查或年终审查,反馈必须是即时的。

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feedback can't be a quarterly review thing or a yearend review thing feedback back has to be immediate.

人们需要立即知道他们是否做了不完全正确的事情,或者他们没有付出全部努力。

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and people need to know uh whether they did something that wasn't quite right uh or they didn't apply the full effort they need to know right away.

Nikolai: 你还遵循哪些其他领导原则?

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what are some of the other leadership principles that you adhere to.

Joe: 我认为谦逊。

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I I think humility I talked about humility.

你必须能够承认自己的错误。

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you have to be able to admit to your own mistakes.

另一件事是你不能总是假装自己是房间里最聪明的人。

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the other thing is you can't pretend to be the smartest person in the room always.

有时你希望人们寻找那种领导力,你希望提出一个好主意,但那不可能总是这样。

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sometimes you you want people are looking for that leadership you want to come up with a good idea whatever but that can be all the time uh.

因为你必须让你的下属有权提出自己的想法,否则你就会扼杀创新。

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because you got to let your people the people that report to you be empowered to come up with your own ideas uh otherwise you kill Innovation.

对体育的热爱与布鲁克林篮网队

Nikolai: 你提到了体育,告诉我你对体育的热爱以及你为什么买了一支篮球队。

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you mentioned sport tell me about your love for sport and why you bought uh a basketball team.

Joe: 我一直都相当有运动天赋。

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I I've always uh been fairly athletic myself um and uh just having participated in sports um both in high school and in University uh.

在高中和大学都参加过体育运动。

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both in high school and in University uh yeah.

Nikolai: 但乔,很多人都喜欢运动,但他们不会买运动俱乐部。

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but Joe there are lot of people who like sport who don't who don't buy sport clubs.

Joe: 你说得对,你说得对。

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you're right you're right um.

但首先谈谈体育,我认为体育不仅教你纪律和努力工作,还教你如何失败。

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but first about sports I think Sports teaches you not only the discipline and hard work but also sport teaches you how to how to fail.

如果你跌倒了,如果你输掉了一场比赛,你必须重新振作起来。

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if you fall down if you lose a game you got to bounce back.

我认为这非常非常重要,很多这些原则都适用于商业。

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I think that's really really important a lot of those principles apply to business.

那么我为什么买了一支运动队呢?

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so why I bought a sports team it's actually Serendipity um.

这实际上是机缘巧合。

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it's actually Serendipity um.

当布鲁克林篮网队在2017年出售时,我真的不知道投资和拥有一支运动队是怎样的。

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when the BR Nets were up for sale uh this is in 2017 I really had no idea what it's like to invest and be an owner of a sports team uh.

但后来我研究了联盟的特点,联盟如何分享经济收益。

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but then I looked at the characteristics of the league uh how the league shares economics uh.

NBA(National Basketball Association: 美国国家篮球协会,北美职业篮球联赛)的一大优点是他们有一个非常好的集体谈判协议(collective bargaining agreement: 劳资双方通过谈判达成的劳动合同),将经济收益分配给球队、老板和球员。

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one of the great things about the NBA is they have a very good collective bargaining agreement that splits the economics between the teams the owners and the players.

球员确实提供了价值,所以他们应该得到他们应得的经济份额,这在集体谈判协议中已经规定了。

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the players are really providing value right so they should get their fair share of the economics and that's set out in the collective bargaining agreement uh.

关于NBA的另一件事是,在30支球队中,无论你是否在竞技上成功,都有一个机制让所有球队,即使是小市场球队,也能保持竞争力并赚钱。

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and then the other thing about the NBA is among the 30 teams uh it doesn't matter if you're competitively successful or not there is a mechanism for all teams to be even the small Market teams to be competitive and to also make money uh.

所以球队之间有一个相当公平的经济分享机制。

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so there's a pretty fair sharing e economics among the teams.

例如,电视转播权,NBA今天每年获得约27亿美元的全国电视收入,这在30支球队中平均分配。

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for example the TV rights uh the NBA today gets something like $2.7 billion of national TV revenues every year that gets split among the 30 teams evenly.

这与英超联赛(EPL: English Premier League,英格兰最高级别的足球联赛)等非常不同。

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that's very very different from the eepl for example.

所以,我认为这些特点有点像社会主义,但它确保了所有投资联盟的人都不会损失太多钱。

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so um uh I thought those characteristics are um almost like a little bit socialist uh but it ensures that everybody that invests in the league uh will not lose a lot of money.

另一件事是布鲁克林,我们在纽约市。

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and the other thing is Brooklyn right we're in New York City uh.

你还能在哪里、如何有机会拥有一项资产,它在一个大城市、一个大国家,并且是世界上最受欢迎的运动之一的“皇冠上的明珠”?

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where else and how else can you get an opportunity to own an asset uh that is kind of like a crown jewel in a big city um in a big country and with one of the most popular sports in the world.

Nikolai: 有趣吗?

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is it fun.

Joe: 绝对有趣!

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it's absolutely fun.

我喜欢看比赛。

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I love I love going to games.

Nikolai: 我能看出你玩得很开心。

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I can I can see you having fun with it.

你还有哪些其他乐趣?

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what are the other ways you're having fun.

Joe: 我花时间陪伴我的孩子。

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I I spend time with my kids uh.

你知道,最令人欣慰的事情之一是看到我17岁的儿子打篮球比赛,只是一场高中比赛。

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I uh you know one of the most rewarding things is to see my 17-year-old son play a basketball game just a high school game.

他是篮球队的首发控球后卫,看到他在球场上表现出色,我感到非常高兴。

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he's uh the starting point guard on the basketball team and uh it just gives me so much pleasure to see him do well um on on the court.

Nikolai: 你读书吗?

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do you read.

Joe: 是的。

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yeah.

Nikolai: 你读什么?

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what do you read.

Joe: 我喜欢读间谍小说,我是约翰·勒卡雷(John le Carré: 英国著名间谍小说作家)的忠实粉丝。

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well I like to read uh spy novels I'm a big John l Cary fan okay.

我仍然记得当我还是个少年时,我读的第一本书之一是**《锅匠、裁缝、士兵、间谍》**(Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy: 约翰·勒卡雷的著名间谍小说)。

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and um I still remember when I was a um teenager one of the first books I read was Tinker Taylor Soldier Spy yeah.

我立刻就被它吸引了。

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and uh I got hooked on it uh right away and so all that uh.

我认为这位作者能够将他真实的生活经历转化为读者的体验。

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I I think I think ler the author is has been able to uh take some of his real life and turn it into this experience for the readers uh.

这几乎是鼓舞人心的,你想要成为书中的一个角色。

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it's almost aspirational like you want to be one of the characters in the book and uh uh.

所以我非常喜欢。

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so I I I enjoy that very much.

除此之外,我尽量多读一些时事新闻,我喜欢**《经济学人》**(The Economist: 英国著名新闻周刊)。

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and other than that I I try to read as much um sort of current affairs I love The Economist um you know but that's uh probably not reading books um.

但这可能不算读书。

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but that's uh probably not reading books um.

给年轻人的建议:专业技能与多元知识

Nikolai: 你对年轻人有什么建议?

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what would be your advice to young people.

Joe: 我的建议是,学习一到两项非常基础的技能,让你在所有人中处于前10%的水平。

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my my advice is um learn one or two very fundamental skill sets that you're you're going to be on the top 10% of everybody else uh.

比如,如果你想学习如何编程,如果你想学习某个特定的学科领域,我认为你必须发展一些专长。

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like you know if you want to learn how to code if you want to learn uh a particular subject area uh I think you have to develop some specialty.

我的专业,在职业上,实际上是税法。

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my specialty uh professionally was actually tax law.

我做了三年税务律师,我知道我可以走进一个房间,当人们谈论税务结构时,我至少会显得有些聪明。

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I was a tax lawyer for three years and I knew I can go into a room and be at least somewhat smart when people talk about tax structuring.

这对我今天仍然有帮助。

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and it still actually is helpful to me today um.

我们正在研究一些国际事务,其中构建正确的公司实体、税务结构和许可结构非常重要。

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we're looking at some things internationally where uh uh structuring the right corporate entities and uh tax structures and Licensing structures are important.

所以我非常投入其中。

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so I get very involved in that uh.

所以你不能只是走进一个房间,成为所有领域的通才。

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so someone you can't just be a walking into a room and just be a generalist in all areas.

你必须能够告诉别人,我是某一方面,这个特定方面的专家,这就是你获得尊重的方式。

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someone some you have to be able to tell somebody I'm an expert in one thing this particular thing and that's how you get respect.

我要给年轻人的另一条建议是,学习多项技能。

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the other thing uh that I would say to young people is um you know learn multiple things uh.

特别是,我认为未来数据科学(data science: 结合统计学、计算机科学和领域知识,从数据中提取洞察的学科)很重要。

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in particular I think in the future data science is important uh.

去上一门数据科学的课。

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take a class in data science.

以前叫统计学,但数据科学是更时髦的叫法。

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it used to be called statistics but data science is the more fancy way of naming it uh.

还要上一门心理学(psychology: 研究人类思维和行为的科学)的课。

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and also take a class in Psychology.

我认为人类思维以及思维如何运作有一些迷人之处,这与机器非常不同。

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I think there is something that's fascinating about the human mind and how the mind works and uh that's very different from machines and uh uh.

所以,如果你具备一些编程能力,就像现在的年轻人,他们都学习用PythonJava等编程语言编码,了解数据科学,再了解一点心理学,我认为你就具备了在生活中取得成功所需的所有工具。

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so if you are equipped with some ability to code like young people nowadays they all learn how to code on python or Java or whatever it is uh have a uh understand data science and understand a little bit of psychology I think you're equipped with uh all the tools that you need to be successful in life.

Nikolai: 听起来这是一个很好的计划,你肯定非常成功,很高兴能邀请你来。

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sounds like a good plan that you for sure have been very successful and it's been really great having you on.

Joe: 非常感谢你,尼古拉,非常感谢,我很感激。

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thank you so much Nikolai thank you very much I appreciate it.

📌 文中提及的人物和组织