关于国家体制失衡、政治不平等与未来走向的深度讨论 The Diary Of A CEO 2026-08-03

播客引言与节目预告

Pete Buttigieg: 我现在非常担心我们国家未来的走向。美国的体制已经失衡到了这种地步:如果你是一个亿万富翁,你所缴纳的税率可能比学校老师或消防员还要低。我们正面临着几乎前所未见的不平等现象。政治暴力在抬头,信任在崩塌,而我们目前面临的最严重问题是这笔庞大的债务,它现在已经攀升到了无人能够忽视的程度。你认为这会如何收场?我的意思是,我们正处于失去民主的边缘,而且我们采取行动的时间已经不多了。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: I'm really worried about where we're headed as a country right now. America's system is so out of whack that if you are a multibillionaire, you probably pay a lower percentage in taxes than if you're a school teacher or a firefighter. You have levels of inequality that we've almost never seen. There's a rise in political violence, the collapse in trust, and the biggest thing of all that we're facing right now is this massive debt, but it's now escalated to a level that no one can ignore. How do you think this plays out? I mean, and we're on the brink of losing our democracy and we're running out of time to do something about it.

Host: 皮特·布蒂吉格(Pete Buttigieg)部长,特朗普在上台时做出了很多承诺。我很想听听你对伊朗战争的看法。

Original English

Host: Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Trump made a lot of promises when he came into power. Keen to get your perspective on the Iran war.

Pete Buttigieg: 总统无法解释我们为什么要在那里。有很多理由让人怀疑,我们开战仅仅是因为他想让我们这么做。而现在,我想不出该如何让我们从中抽身。军队已经失去了生命。[音乐] 物价变高了。因为这场战争,你在汽油、食物或抵押贷款上付出了更多。因此,下一任总统将在处于巨大劣势的情况下处理此事,因为我们与盟友的许多关系已经被破坏。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: So, the president can't explain why we're there. There's a lot of reasons to suspect that we're just at war cuz he wanted us to. And now I can't figure out how to get us out of it. Troops have lost their lives. [music] Prices are higher. You're paying more for gas, for food, or for mortgages because of this war. And so that the next president will be doing this at a big disadvantage because so many relationships with our allies have been burned.

Host: 所以我很想听听你对人工智能是好是坏的看法。我们应该征收财富税吗?对于特朗普,你有什么尊重的地方吗?另外,比如大以色列的问题呢?内塔尼亚胡在该地区到底想要什么?还有,你是第一位公开出柜的总统候选人吗?

Original English

Host: So I am keen to get your perspective on AI good bad. Should we implement a wealth tax? Is there anything you respect about Trump but also greater Israel for example? But what does Netanyahu want in the region? And then were you the first person in a presidential candidate to be openly gay?

Pete Buttigieg: 肯定是第一位被认为有胜算的人。当我最终与“我是同性恋”这个现实和解时,我已经二十多岁了,因为我曾如此渴望这不是真的。我愿意相信,终有一天这不再是个问题。没人在乎。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: Uh definitely the first person who's considered to have a shot. And when I finally made peace with [music] this reality that I was gay, I was well into my 20s cuz I wanted so bad for it not to be true. I'd like to believe we'll get to a day when it's just not a thing. No one cares.

Host: 皮特·布蒂吉格部长,你会在 2028 年竞选总统吗?

Original English

Host: Secretary Pete Buttigieg, are you going to run to be president in 2028?

频道订阅请求

Host: 嗯,这对我来说非常有趣。我的团队给了我这份报告,向我展示了观看这个节目的你们中有多少人订阅了,根据这份报告,你们中的一些人告诉我们,你们被随机取消订阅了频道。所以想请大家帮个忙,如果你是这个节目的常客,并且你喜欢我们在这里所做的内容,能不能现在就检查一下你是否已经点击了订阅按钮。在订阅人数方面,我们这个节目正接近一个非常重要的里程碑。所以,如果有一件你可以做的、简单且免费的事情来帮助我们、我的团队以及这里的每一个人,让这个节目保持免费,让它年复一年、周复一周地不断改进,那就是点击那个订阅按钮,并仔细检查你是否已经点击了它。这是我唯一会要求你们做的事。我们说定了吗?如果你这么做了,我会告诉你我要做什么。我会确保每一周、每一个月,我们都更加努力地战斗,为你带来你想要听到的嘉宾和对话。从《CEO日记》(Diary of a CEO)一开始,我就一直信守这个承诺,我绝不会让你们失望。请帮助我们。真的非常感谢。让我们继续节目吧。

Original English

Host: Um, this is super interesting to me. My team gave me this report to show me how many of you that watch this show subscribe and some of you have told us according to this that you are unsubscribed from the channel randomly. So favor to ask all of you please could you check right now if you've hit the subscribe button if you are a regular view of the show and you like what we do here. We're approaching quite a significant landmark on this show in terms of a subscriber number. So, if there was one simple free thing that you could do to help us, my team, everyone here, to keep this show free, to keep it improving year over year and week over week, it is just to hit that subscribe button and to double check if you've hit it. Only thing I'll ever ask of you. Do we have a deal? If you do it, I'll tell you what I'll do. I'll make sure every single week, every single month, we fight harder and harder and harder and harder to bring you the guests and conversations that you want to hear. I've stayed true to that promise since the very beginning of the Diary of a CEO, and I will not let you down. Please help us. Really appreciate it. Let's get on with the show.

对美国政治现状的担忧

Host: [唱歌] 皮特·布蒂吉格部长,你对目前的政治本质有什么感觉?或者我可能应该说,目前的美国生活本质?

Original English

Host: [singing] Secretary Pete Buttigieg, how are you feeling about the nature of politics at the moment, but I should probably say the nature of American life at the moment?

Pete Buttigieg: 我现在非常担心我们国家未来的走向。我认为在很多方面,我们存在的全部意义就是创造一种不同的政治体制,并将其介绍给世界。这就是我们的意义所在。而现在,整个项目都受到了质疑。在我看来,整个项目都处在悬崖边缘。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: I'm really worried about where we're headed as a country. I think in many ways our entire existence has been about creating a different kind of political system and introducing it to the world. That's what we're about. And now that whole project is in question. That whole project is in my view, it's on the brink.

Host: 在悬崖边缘?

Original English

Host: On the brink?

Pete Buttigieg: 是的。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: Yeah.

Host: 怎么会?你这么说是什么意思?

Original English

Host: What? What do you mean by that?

Pete Buttigieg: 我的意思是,我们正处于失去民主的边缘。这个国家的整个理念,推翻国王的整个理念在于:如果我们建立一个由人民掌管政府,而不是相反的国家,那么日常生活就会变得更好。而现在,我们所处的这个时刻,在经历了数十年、250 年的种种之后,我们并不清楚这是否能成功。我认为会的。我相信如果我们做我们该做的事,它就会成功。但这需要改革、调整、改变那个政治体系,因为那个政治体系中的问题,有助于解释我认为许多美国人正在经历的所有经济问题:比如你拥有了巨大的经济增长,但却令人震惊地只有极少部分落入人们的口袋;在这个国家,你看到了几乎前所未见的不平等水平。另一件事是,美国的承诺不仅体现在制度、政治、政府、民主——这是美国赋予世界的礼物,即创造民主——还有它的经济版本,也就是美国梦,对吧?这种理念是,无论你的起点如何,它都向许多知道这个体制让他们失望的人发出呼唤。尽管我认为他是一个真正从现有体制中获益的人,这个体制让他变得富有并保持富有,你知道的,他的信息是,我要把这一切都摧毁。而我认为他摧毁的都是错误的东西。但是听着,如果这个体制让你失望了,你在有人站出来说“我要把这一切都摧毁”之前,只会在这个体制内投那么几次票。然后你会说,“好吧,我可能甚至不喜欢这家伙,但我会给他个机会,看看这是否会让我过得更好。”同时,我也认为他对很多人撒了谎。你知道,有些人投票给他,是因为他们相信他说他不会发动新战争;许多人投票给他,是因为他们相信他说他在上任第一天就会开始降低成本。而现在,通货膨胀比他接手那一天还要高。所以这些承诺并不真实,但它们触及了我认为很多人心中的想法,这让很多人愿意去摧毁一切。对此,我的党派应该吸取教训。显然,我强烈反对他正在做的许多破坏性的事情。但这并不意味着答案就是所谓地“逆转伤害”,把一切都恢复到原来的样子。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: I mean, we're on the brink of losing our democracy. The whole idea of this country, the whole idea of overthrowing a king was that everyday life would get better if we set up a country where the people are in charge of the government instead of the other way around. And now we're in this moment where after all of the things we've gone through for decades, for 250 years, it's not clear if that's going to work out. I think it will. I believe it will if we do what we have to do. But that means reforming, tuning up, changing that political system because the problems in that political system help to explain all of the economic problems that I think so many Americans are living with where you've had enormous economic growth and shockingly little of it making it into people's pockets where you have levels of inequality that we've almost never seen in this country. And then the other thing is there there's the American promise in terms of the system, the politics, the government, democracy, the America's gift to the world, creating democracy, but there's the economic version of that which is the American dream, right? The idea that no matter how you start, speaks to a lot of people who know that the system has let them down. And even though I think he's somebody who really benefits from the system as it is, it's made him rich and kept him rich, you know, his message was, I'm going to blow it all up. And I think he's blowing up all the wrong things. But look, if the systems let you down, you're only going to vote so many times within that system before somebody comes along and says, "I'm going to blow it all up." And you say, "Well, I may not even like the guy, but uh I'll give him a shot to see if that makes me better off." Now, I also think he lied to a lot of people. Um you know, some people voted for him because they believed him when he said he's not going to start a new war. Many people voted for him because they believed him when he said on day one he was going to start lowering costs. And right now inflation's higher than it was the day he took over. So these promises weren't true, but they spoke to something that I think a lot of people had on their mind that that made a lot of people willing to burn things down. And there's a lesson for my party in that. I'm obviously passionately against many destructive things that he's doing. That doesn't mean the answer is to quote unquote reverse the damage, put everything back the way it was.

Host: 嗯。

Original English

Host: Mhm.

Pete Buttigieg: 因为你说的很对,民主党在这里负有很大责任,嗯,原因有很多。我认为特朗普被选上台这个事实本身,就说明了人们对上一届政府的感受,也就是那届民主党……

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: Because you're right there that the Democrats have a lot of responsibility here um for a lot of reasons. I think the very fact that Trump was voted into power says something about how people felt with the previous administration, which was a Democratic

民主党的责任与选民信任

Interviewer: 本届政府。民主党在让国家陷入这种局面——即人们认为民主党不是解决问题的答案——中承担了什么责任?因为我觉得很多人认为,那不过是换汤不换药罢了。

Original English

Interviewer: administration. What responsibility does the Democratic Party have for getting the country to a place where they thought Democrats weren't the solution? Because that's kind of I think a lot of people thought that's just like more of the same.

Secretary: 是的。

Original English

Secretary: Yeah.

Interviewer: 也许人们正变得越来越——我觉得在整个西方世界看来都是如此——越来越厌倦政客们说那些好听的话,比如“我们要帮助工薪阶层”之类各种冠冕堂皇的辞藻,表现得非常圆滑。然后你看到其他一些人物登场,他们说“我不是政客”。

Original English

Interviewer: Maybe people are getting increasingly I think across the Western world by the looks of it increasingly tied with like politicians saying these like cute words and like we're going to help the working people and blah blah blah blah blah and being very polished. And then you see this these other figures that have come in and said I'm not a politician.

Secretary: 是的,是的。

Original English

Secretary: Yeah. Yeah.

Interviewer: 正如你所说,“我要把这一切都烧毁”。

Original English

Interviewer: And as you say, I'm going to burn it down.

Secretary: 处于某种原因,人们正在选择这种方式。

Original English

Secretary: For some reason, people are choosing that.

Interviewer: 是的。尽管当他们这样做时,通常那个人会让情况变得更糟。所以这就是为什么现任总统不受欢迎,但这并不意味着人们就会自动去信任民主党。

Original English

Interviewer: Yeah. Even though when they do, usually that person makes it worse. And so that's why the president's unpopular, but the president is unpopular. To your point, that doesn't mean people are automatically going to trust Democrats.

Secretary: 是的。没错。所以我的意思是,对你问题的回答是:是的,民主党有责任去呈现一些更好的东西,不仅仅是比现在更好,而是必须比以前更好。事实是,很多这些结果的发生,你知道,在某种程度上与谁掌权无关。

Original English

Secretary: Yeah. Right. Uh so I mean, the answer to your question is yes, Democrats have a responsibility to present something that is better, not just better than now, but it's got to be better than before. The fact remain is a lot of these results have unfolded on you know, kind of regardless of who's in power.

2028年竞选总统的可能性

Interviewer: 你会在2028年竞选总统吗?

Original English

Interviewer: Are you going to run to be president in 2028?

Secretary: 我不知道。我必须相信,而这也是我每次决定竞选公职时所采取的方式:要审视这个职位似乎需要什么,不只是从大体上说,而是在那个特定时刻;然后审视我能带来什么,并问自己:好吧,我带来的东西是否与其他人的截然不同?并且这是否契合当时的时刻。这就好像当年促使我竞选市长一样,当我在二十多岁时在印第安纳州南本德,那是一个相当不可思议的举动。这也正是在大约八年前促使我竞选总统的原因。现在,

Original English

Secretary: I don't know. Um, I would have to believe, and this is how I've approached every every time I've decided to run for office. It's looking at everything that the office seems like it needs, not just generally, but in that moment, and then looking at what I bring to the table and asking myself, okay, am I bringing something that's different enough from what others are bringing? And that fits like that moment. Like that's what led me to run for mayor, which is a pretty unlikely move in in Southbend, Indiana when I was in my 20s. It's what led me to run for president when I did almost 8 years ago. Now,

Interviewer: 我要用你自己的话来说了,部长先生。你说过,政治往往青睐那些与现任领导人截然不同的人。而且你不可能与特朗普有更大的差异了。我引用一下你的原话:“一个来自中西部的年轻、同性恋的知识分子市长。” 你知道,亚马逊在招聘时有一个非常有趣的机制,我们公司也效仿了。每次你面试某人时,你必须在四个选项中投出一票。你要么投“强烈不倾向”、“不倾向”、“倾向”,要么投“强烈倾向”。所以在面试某人时,你有四个选项。我们现在在公司里也是这样做的。我们从他们那里学来的。整个想法是为了防止人们骑墙,也就是看你的倾向性是什么。所以,如果我就你2028年竞选总统这事(就目前情况来看)向你提供这四个选项,而这仅仅是一个概率平衡的问题,你是“倾向”的吗?

Original English

Interviewer: I'll use your own words here, Secretary. Um, you said politics often favors someone who is completely different to the current leader. And that you could not be more different from Trump. I quote, "An intellectual young gay mayor from the Midwest." You know, Amazon have this really interesting thing when they hire people, um, which we've copied. They every time you meet someone, you have to vote one of four things. You either vote strongly not inclined, not inclined, inclined, and strongly inclined. So, you've got four options when you interview someone. We do the same in our company now. We took it from them. And the whole idea here is to prevent people from sitting on the fence, which is like what is your inclination? So, if I presented you with those four options as it relates to you running for president in 2028 as things stand, and this is just a balance of probability, are you inclined?

Secretary: 选项有“不倾向”、“强烈不倾向”。

Original English

Secretary: Not inclined, strongly not inclined.

Interviewer: 还有“强烈倾向”。

Original English

Interviewer: Strongly inclined.

Interviewer: 在这些播客上,从来没有人说该死的实话。这就是为什么有时采访政客很困难,因为我们大家都有一个倾向性,对吧?

Original English

Interviewer: Um, on these podcasts, nobody ever tells the bloody truth. This is why it's difficult sometimes to interview politicians cuz we all have an inclination, right?

Secretary: 是的。我的意思是,你对以这种措辞来谈论有所犹豫的原因之一是,你知道,大家会借题发挥,这会变成“今日头条”之类的新闻,而且它会在接下来的几天里占据主导地位,而你原本是想谈论些别的事情。

Original English

Secretary: Yeah. I mean, one of the reasons why you hesitate to to talk in those terms is because, you know, like people are going to run with it and it'll be this like news of the day thing and it'll, you know, it'll kind of dominate the next couple of days when you're trying to talk about something else.

Interviewer: 但是,在这方面,真相难道不比真相带来的后果更重要吗?

Original English

Interviewer: But does the truth just not matter more though than the consequence of the truth in this regard?

Secretary: 是的,是的。但关于我可能会做什么的真相,我是说,在做这种决定之前,甚至还有一些我自己都不确定的、必须去权衡的事情,在那之前我无法告诉你明确的方向。

Original English

Secretary: Yeah. Yeah, but the truth about like what you know what I'm maybe going to do like there's a there's a level of like not even being certain some of the things I'll have to weigh like before having made a decision like this before I can tell you that there's the read

Interviewer: 我需要你的倾向。

Original English

Interviewer: I need the inclination

Secretary: 我显然不属于两个极端的任何一端。

Original English

Secretary: like I'm I'm obviously not to one end or the other.

Interviewer: 好的,好的。所以你不是那两个(强烈)选项。

Original English

Interviewer: Yeah. Okay. So you're not those two.

Secretary: 嗯,我想我大概是“倾向”多于“不倾向”。

Original English

Secretary: Um I think I'm like more inclined than not.

Interviewer: 好的,那我很感激你的回答。

Original English

Interviewer: Okay, then I appreciate that.

Secretary: 但是有太多事情我们还不知道。有太多关于今年会发生什么事情我甚至都不知道,更别提以后我们需要知道的事情了。而且这不仅仅是关于这个决定的分量。我不只是指国家政治层面的分量,更是一种竞选公职的决定对你和你的家人的分量,坦率地说,直到我有了孩子之后,我才完全理解这一点。这改变了我的所有等式。这真的是你需要去好好静坐思考和严肃对待的事情,你也理应如此。

Original English

Secretary: Um, but there's so much we don't know. There's so much I don't even know about what's going to happen this year, let alone, you know, what we need to know later. Um, and this is not, you know, the weight of a decision like that. And I don't just mean like the national political weight, but just like the weight of a decision to run for office for you and your family, which frankly I did not fully understand, but until I had kids. Uh that's changed all of my equations. [clears throat] Um it it's just something that you really sit with and take seriously, which you should.

评估总统的伊朗战争决策

Interviewer: 此时此刻人们正在谈论的一件大事是伊朗战争。这也跟我们刚才提到的一些关于兑现和未兑现承诺的观点联系在一起。用直白的话来说,到底发生了什么?因为美国人接收到了大量的信息:“我们已经摧毁了一切。伊朗、军事基地全都没了。然后我们又回到了战争状态,美国人的生命被夺走了”,对吧?你能帮我们看清这一切吗?

Original English

Interviewer: One of the big things that people are talking about at this moment in time is the Iran war. And this feeds into some of the points we were touching on around promises kept and not kept. What is going on in plain terms? Because Americans are getting lots of messages. We've destroyed everything. Iran, the military bases are all gone. and then we're back at war and American lives have been taken, right? Can you help us see through all of this?

Secretary: 我认为现在的情况是,总统已经把自己和国家逼入死角。曾经有那么一个时刻,他似乎认为如果我们处于战争状态,他在政治上会更有利。尽管他承诺过我们不会开战,尽管他的很多支持者不想要战争,当然总体而言美国人民也不想要,但他因为生活成本的问题承受了很大压力,还因为爱泼斯坦文件承受了很大压力,这件事每天都在主导对话,被证明与杰弗里·爱泼斯坦这种臭名昭著的恋童癖者有关联,然后他尽其所能掩盖相关披露。对吧?这显然是给总统带来巨大压力的事情。与此同时,每天都有很多人在他耳边吹风,其中一些人从美国政客到世界各地的人,他们真的很想看到他发动战争。为什么?嗯,这算是共和党的传统,通常更加支持战争,对吧?我是说,你知道,我成年的时候正是伊拉克战争时期。事实上,促使我完全步入政界的一个很大原因就是反对伊拉克战争。

Original English

Secretary: I think what's going on is the president has painted himself and the country into a corner. There was a a moment where it seemed to him that he was better off politically if we were at war. even though he promised that we wouldn't be, even though a lot of his supporters didn't want the war, and certainly the the American people as a whole don't want it, but he was under a lot of heat over cost of living, over the Epstein files, which was dominating the conversation every day, being proven to be as connected to an infamous pedophile as Jeffrey Epstein, and then doing everything he could to cover up disclosures about it. Right? This is something that obviously was something that was creating a ton of heat on the president. Meanwhile, there's a lot of people in his ear every day and some of them from American politicians to people around the world would really like to see him go to war. Why? Well, it's kind of the tradition of the Republican party is to generally be more pro-war, right? That's I mean, you know, my coming of age was at the time of the Iraq war. In fact, a big part of what kind of pulled me fully into politics was being opposed to the Iraq war.

Interviewer: 关于你的一件事情,很多人可能不知道,那就是你确确实实参军报效了国家。我这里有一些你服役时的照片,我想你这里也有你父母在你从阿富汗回来后的照片。

Original English

Interviewer: One of the things that a lot of people won't know about you is that you did actually go and serve your country. I've got some photos of you here serving and I think you've got your uh parents I think post Afghanistan as well.

Secretary: 是的,那是我回来的那一天。

Original English

Secretary: Yeah, that's the day I got back.

Interviewer: 我只是认为,让人们知道你曾为国家服役,并且能相当准确地谈论这个问题,这是很重要的。

Original English

Interviewer: I just think it's important for people to know that you can speak to this quite accurately having served your country.

Secretary: 是的,我的意思是,我知道登上带你进入战区的灰色军用运输机、在想那里有什么在等着你的感觉。我们现在的情况是,有很多部队正处于这种境地。他们正处于危险之中,而总统似乎没有一个计划。他无法解释我们为什么在那里。他说这是为了政权更迭。他说这是为了无条件投降。他说这是为了解决他们的核计划。但去年他说他们已经消灭了核计划。所以,有很多理由让人怀疑,我们仅仅是因为他想要开战而处于战争中,而现在我想不出怎么才能让我们摆脱困境。而且似乎任何前进的道路都会让我们比战前的情况更糟。物价更高了。军队失去了生命。而且似乎最不坏的选项仍然意味着伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的控制力要比他们一年前所声称的更大。大多数美国人本不应该去担心霍尔木兹海峡。他们需要担心的事情够多了。而且一年前,我们并不用担心。那不是个问题。无论霍尔木兹海峡发生了什么,感觉那都不是个问题。你知道,对于我住在密歇根州来说,现在它却成了问题。

Original English

Secretary: Yeah, I mean I know what it feels like to get on a gray tail airplane that's taking you into a war zone and and wondering what's waiting for you there. Where we are now is a lot of troops are in that situation. They're in harm's way and the president doesn't seem to have a plan. He can't explain why we're there. He said it's for regime change. He said it's for unconditional surrender. He said that it's to get deal with their nuclear program. But last year he said they obliterated the nuclear program. And so it there's a lot of reasons to suspect that we're just at war because he wanted us to be and now I can't figure out how to get us out of it. And it appears that any way forward leaves us worse off than we were before the war. Prices are higher. Troops have lost their lives. And it seems like the least bad options still involve Iran having more control over the Straight of Hormuz than they were asserting a year ago. Most Americans shouldn't have to be worrying about the straight of Hormuz. They got enough to worry about. And a year ago, we weren't. That was not a problem. Whatever was going on in the straight of Hormuz did not feel like it was a problem. You know, where I live in Michigan and now it is.

Interviewer: 那到底是为什么呢?是什么样的多米诺骨牌效应让他决定,你知道吗?

Original English

Interviewer: Why though? What what was the like domino effect that caused him to go, you know what?

Secretary: “我觉得我们可以直接进去,把领导人斩首。”

Original English

Secretary: I think we can just go in there, decapitate the leader.

Interviewer: 是的。

Original English

Interviewer: Yeah.

Secretary: “然后宣布胜利”。显然,这是一个留给总统回答的问题,但老实说,我并不完全理解他们为什么要这么做,特别是因为我们知道,你不需要成为国际事务和安全研究的专家就能知道,如果我们真的攻击伊朗,他们将会封锁海峡并且试图去——

Original English

Secretary: And announce victory. Obviously, this is a question for the president, but honestly, I don't fully understand why they would do something like this, especially because we know like you didn't have to be like an expert in international affairs and security studies to know if we actually attacked Iran, they were going to shut down the straight and try to the

对当前总统的批评与未来挑战

Speaker B: ……世界经济。这确实是接下来最可能发生的显而易见的事情。然而,他似乎要么不理解,要么不相信。当然,一定有人把这些告诉过他。事实上我们知道有报道称,他被告知了这件事,但他还是一意孤行。那么这是怎么发生的呢?我的意思是,我早就放弃尝试去揣测这位总统的想法了。

Original English

Speaker B: ...world economy. Like, it was literally the most obvious next thing that could happen. And yet it seems like he either didn't understand or didn't believe. Surely he was told this. We know in fact it's been reported that he was told this and he did it anyway. So how does that happen? I mean I've long given up trying to see into the mind of this president.

Speaker A: 我敢说,如果你在2028年当选总统,这可能会是你需要解决的责任。

Original English

Speaker A: Dare I say if you are president in 2028, this could be your responsibility to resolve.

Speaker B: 我的意思是,我真的希望下一任总统不需要面对这场拖延到2029年的战争。但是,我的意思是,是的,我们确实学到了一点:阻止一场战争比发动一场战争要困难得多。这就是为什么如果你有任何其他合理的选择,你都不要去发动一场战争。

Original English

Speaker B: I mean I really hope that the next president isn't facing this war dragging on into 2029. But I mean, yeah, one thing we have learned is that it is harder to stop a war than it is to start one. Which is why if you have any other reasonable choice, you don't start one.

Speaker A: 那么,如果你是总统,你会怎么做?

Original English

Speaker A: So what are you going to do if you are president?

Speaker B: 听着,无论如何,下一任总统都将面临一个复杂、暴力且充满挑战的中东和世界格局。下一任总统必须在应对这些问题的同时,去处理一个更加强势的中国,以及一个部分因人工智能等因素而正在迅速且剧烈演变的安全局势。

Original English

Speaker B: Look, the next president will face a complicated, violent, and challenging Middle East and world map no matter what. and the next president's gonna have to deal with that while dealing with uh a more assertive China and a dramatically swiftly evolving security landscape partly because of things like AI.

人工智能的安全隐患与全球协调

Speaker A: 就在你我现在坐在这里的时候,有很多关于一个巨大安全问题的头条新闻,它是由一个本不该能够连接互联网的人工智能模型引起的,但它却设法连上了互联网,并入侵了另一家公司,以获取它被要求解答的测试答案。对吧?而这仅仅是2026年的今天。到2029年可能发生的事情,肯定会改变我们所面临的挑战以及潜在的可能性。听着,就像过去华盛顿和莫斯科之间设有核热线一样,因为事实证明,尽管美国人和苏联人在许多方面争得你死我活,但有一件事他们都不希望发生,那就是把地球化为灰烬。嗯。

Original English

Speaker A: Just as you and I are sitting here now, there's a lot of headlines about a big safety issue created by an AI model that was supposed to not even be able to access the internet managing to get itself on the internet and hack into another company to get the answers to a test that it was told to solve. Right? And that's as of today in 2026. The things that could be going on by 2029 are surely going to change both what we're up against and what's possible. Look, in the same way that there was a nuclear hotline between Washington and Moscow, because it turns out, even while at each other's throats in a lot of ways, one thing that Americans and Soviets didn't want was to incinerate the planet. Mhm.

Speaker B: 对于今天互不信任的国家来说,必须找到某种方式来进行协调,以确保人工智能不会导致生物武器被流氓参与者甚至个人制造出来。确保它不会导致核扩散或可能发生的许多其他问题,对吧。所以我认为,对下一任总统来说,安全局势将比冷战以来的任何一位总统所面临的都要更具挑战性。

Original English

Speaker B: There's going to have to be some way for countries that do not trust each other today to coordinate on things like making sure AI doesn't lead to bioweapons being made by rogue actors or even individual actors. Making sure that it doesn't lead to uh nuclear proliferation or any number of other problems, right, that could happen. So the security picture, I think, will be more challenging for the next president than it's been for any president since the cold war.

Speaker A: 那么,就心态或品格阅历而言,你认为什么样的人能胜任总统来应对这些挑战?

Original English

Speaker A: So what kind of president in terms of mentality or character experience do you think can meet those challenges?

对领导人品格和判断力的要求

Speaker B: 嗯,你需要一个深思熟虑且果断的人。这两件事有时会产生张力,因为深思熟虑意味着你要慢下来,你要去观察正在发生的事情并加以思考。

Original English

Speaker B: Well, you need somebody who's deliberate and decisive. Uh those two things sometimes are in tension because deliberation means you slow down, you look at what's going on and you think about it.

Speaker A: 嗯。

Original English

Speaker A: Mhm.

Speaker B: 但果断并不意味着你每次被问到问题时都要立即做出决定。它的确意味着,一旦你觉得你掌握了足够的信息。你就做决定。你要承担那个决定的后果,然后你继续处理下一个决定。我认为在品格和风格方面,我们将需要这两种特质。我们需要智慧。我们需要判断力。而且我们需要一种不因腐败原因而被扭曲、改变、粉饰或带有偏见的判断力。我之所以提到这一点,是因为现在,在所有总统中,我们有史以来第一次遇到这样一位总统:他的家族正从一些有时直接与外国政府决定相关的事情上赚取数十亿美元,对吧?中东有一个政府把数亿美元投入了这位总统的家族加密货币基金。你看沙特阿拉伯向第一家庭的商业利益投资了,我相信,是为了总统的女婿投资了大约几十亿美元,对吧?现在一切重大利益都危在旦夕,我们实在无法承受下一任总统是一个哪怕有极小可能受到这类考量影响的人,因为这关系到美国人民的重大利益和美国的安全。当你审视伊朗的局势时,光说“我们必须,呃,我们必须离开那里”是很容易的。但怎么做到呢?

Original English

Speaker B: But decisive doesn't mean you immediately make a call every time a question is put to you. It does mean that you once you feel like you've got enough information. You make a decision. You own the consequences of that decision, you move on to the next decision. And I think in terms of kind of character and style, we're going to need both of those things. We're going to need wisdom. We're going to need judgment. And we're going to need judgment that is not twisted or changed or colored or um biased based on corrupt reasons. And the reason I mentioned that is because right now we've got for the first time ever out of all of our presidents uh a president whose family is making billions of dollars from things that are sometimes directly connected to the decision of a foreign government, right? Uh there was one government in the Middle East that put hundreds of millions of dollars into the family crypto fund of this president. You got Saudi Arabia investing in the first family's business interests to the tune of, I believe, a couple of billion dollars for the president's son-in-law, right? And we just can't afford with everything that's on the line right now to have the next president be someone who could remotely be influenced by those kinds of considerations given everything that's on the line for the American people and for American security. When you look at that the picture um in Iran, it's all well and good saying we have to uh we have to get out of there. But how?

Speaker A: 不,唯一好的方式就是从一开始就不去那里。现在已经太晚了。

Original English

Speaker A: No, the only good way to do it is to not be there in the first place. It's too late for that.

Speaker B: 于是,正如行政领导人在面对艰难决定时经常遇到的情况那样,这将是找到最不坏的选项组合,这可能意味着要让许多其他国家、许多地区伙伴,呃,许多盟友参与进来。我要再说一遍,下一任总统在做这件事时将处于巨大的劣势,因为我们与盟友的许多关系已经被破坏了。事实证明,你建立与盟友的关系不仅是出于友好,或者因为这样很棒。你这么做是因为将来有一天你们会需要彼此。事情越糟糕,问题就越困难。就像生活一样,你知道,我最快给朋友打电话的时候,往往是我最痛苦或者觉得我最需要帮助的时候,对吧?对国家来说也是一样的。你的处境越艰难,你就越需要有你可以依靠的朋友。我们在伊朗的处境非常艰难。我们将会在很长一段时间内处于这种状态。我们需要我们的朋友,因为,你知道,你在应对世界上很多,我敢说,自我意识非常庞大的领导人。

Original English

Speaker B: And so, as is often the case in difficult decisions that executives face, it will be finding the least bad combination of options, which probably means engaging a lot of other countries, a lot of regional partners, uh a lot of allies. Now again, the next president will be doing this at a big disadvantage because so many relationships with our allies have been burned. And it turns out you you build relationships with allies not just out of friendliness or because it's neat. You do it because you're going to need each other someday. And the worse something is, the more difficult a problem. Just like life, you know, the times I'm quickest to call a friend are the times when I'm hurting the most or feel like I I I need help the most, right? Same is true for countries. The tougher your situation, the more you got to have friends you can count on. We are in a very tough situation in Iran. We will be for a long time. We need our friends because, you know, you're dealing with a lot of um dare I say very large ego leaders around the world.

与全球对手及盟友的打交道之道

Speaker A: 比如你的那些普京们。

Original English

Speaker A: You got your Putins.

Speaker B: 我甚至都不知道目前是谁在到处乱跑。然后你还有中国。

Original English

Speaker B: I don't even know who's running around at the moment. Then you've got China.

Speaker A: 嗯,这需要一个有着同样庞大自我意识的领导人吗?因为我有时候觉得,好像疯狂的人在某种奇怪的意义上是会尊重疯狂的人的。

Original English

Speaker A: Um does it need a leader with a ego of the same size? because I sometimes I think like I think crazy people kind of respect crazy people in a weird way.

Speaker B: 我觉得,我觉得有很多不同的方式去应对那样的人。但我认为最有用的是赢得一定程度的信誉。而在我们和盟友交谈时,那就是一定程度的信任。当我们在与对手交谈时,这也许和信任不完全一样,但它是一种信誉,也就是说当你说你要去做某事,或者你看起来要去做某事时,你就会去做。这意味着在猜测上浪费的精力会减少,也意味着你只会有多一点的稳定性。我认为现在全世界所有人都在寻找的东西,就是让世界能更稳定一点。顺便说一下,实现这一目标的方法不是像倒带一样,去幻想我们可以让世界变回90年代或50年代的样子。那是不可能的。我们将不得不找到新的方法来创造一个稳定的未来。但是听着,世界上有多少种不同性格的人,世界领导人和总统就有多少种,你知道,就像整个人类社会一样。但是,这个人需要像我之前说的,是一个深思熟虑且果断、强硬而公正,并且有信誉的人。

Original English

Speaker B: I think I think a lot of different ways to deal with people like that. But I think the the most useful is to earn a level of credibility. And when we're talking with allies, a level of trust. When we're talking with adversaries, it's maybe not the same thing as trust, but it is credibility that when you say you're going to do something or you seem like you're going to do something, you're going to do it. It means less energy gets wasted on guesswork and it means you have just a little more stability. I think something all of us are looking for in the world right now is for it to just be a little more stable. And by the way, the way to do that is not to like rewind and imagine that we can make the world look the way it looked in the '90s or the '50s. It's not like that. We're going to have to find new ways to create a stable future. But look, there there are as many different kinds of personalities in world leaders and presidents as there are, you know, in humanity in general. But it'll need to be somebody who, like I said, is deliberate and decisive, tough and fair and credible.

Speaker A: 是的。伊朗局势之所以特别,它之所以特别不确定,有很多原因。部分原因是我不再知道那里的领导层是谁了。部分原因是,看起来他们现在将控制霍尔木兹海峡,或者至少利用它作为筹码,无论最终发生什么结果都是如此,还有部分原因是你仍然面临着这个核威胁。是的。

Original English

Speaker A: Yeah. The the the Iran situation is particularly it's particularly uncertain for many reasons. In part because I don't know who the leadership there is anymore. In part because that it seems like they will now control the strait of Hummus or at least use it as leverage really irrespective of what outcome takes place and in part because you still have this nuclear threat. Yeah.

Speaker B: 嗯,与奥巴马签署那个协议时相比,他们现在大概更有动机去发展核武器了。

Original English

Speaker B: Um that they are probably now more motivated to de develop nuclear weapons than they probably were under Obama when he signed that

Speaker A: 那个和他们签署的协议。

Original English

Speaker A: that agreement with them.

Speaker B: 是的,他们的能力可能变弱了,但在目前这个阶段,他们肯定有更强的动机。

Original English

Speaker B: Yes, they may have less capacity, but they certainly have more motivation at this point.

伊朗核威胁与外交途径

Speaker A: 如果你是总统,你会让他们发展核武器吗?

Original English

Speaker A: Would you let them develop nuclear weapons if you were president?

Speaker B: 不,不应该允许他们拥有核武器。一个拥有核武器的伊朗,我的意思是,看看他们已经用常规手段实施的那些恶意活动,该地区的恐怖组织以及世界各地的恐怖组织。像这种政权,绝对不在其目前的形式下,或者任何类似其目前形式的状态下,能够被信任拥有核武器。不,不同的总统,过去几任总统每个人都有一套方法来确保这种事情永远不会发生。最好的方式就是通过外交途径。这就是奥巴马协议的全部意义所在。特朗普的第一届政府撕毁了奥巴马的协议,却没能达成一个更好的协议。然后,当拜登政府试图达成更好的协议时,隔着谈判桌让伊朗人参与谈判变得非常困难,因为他们记得是特朗普撕毁了奥巴马的协议。对吧?这就是我在谈到信誉时的部分意思。这并不意味着对面的……

Original English

Speaker B: No, they should not be allowed to have nuclear weapons. Uh a nuclear armed Iran, I mean, look at the malevolent activities that they already have pursued with conventional means, terrorist groups around the region and around the world. Like this is not a regime, certainly not in its current form or anything resembling its current form that could ever be trusted with nuclear weapons. No, different presidents, each of the last few presidents had a way of making sure that that never happened. The best way to do that was through diplomacy. That was the whole point of the Obama deal. The first Trump administration tore up the Obama deal, but couldn't get a better deal. And then when the Biden administration was trying to get a better deal, it was very hard to work across the table to get the Iranians to negotiate because they remembered that it was Trump who tore up the Obama deal. Right? It's part of what I mean when I talk about credibility. It doesn't mean that people across the

以色列与美国政治的中心地位

Interviewer: 也就是他们必须意识到,至少和你打交道是值得的,对吧?但考虑到我们所面临的那种不稳定性,那种我们所面对的模式,这种感觉并不多。你知道,我想我大概从十岁起就开始关注美国政治了。在政治中,我从未听到过像以色列被提及得如此之多。作为一名客观的观察者,在我看来,以色列这个话题现在已经成为政治的中心。

Original English

Interviewer: you mean they have to have some sense that it's at least worth dealing with you, right? And there's not a lot of that given that kind of instability, that pattern that we faced. You know, I followed American politics, I think, since I was about 10. One of the things I've never heard mentioned so much in politics is Israel. It appears to me as a objective observer that the subject of Israel is now so central to politics.

Secretary: 是的。

Original English

Secretary: Yeah.

Interviewer: 为什么?美国与以色列的关系,以及公众对以色列的情感到底发生了什么?

Original English

Interviewer: Why? What's going on with the US's relationship with Israel and the public sentiment towards Israel?

Secretary: 这么说吧,它之所以引起如此多的关注,是因为许多非常重要的事情危在旦夕,而且它们之间产生了冲突,对吧?并且这其中的每一件事都是合理的,至少在我看来是这样。我来列举三点。第一点,对于许多美国犹太人来说已经变得非常具有挑战性,那就是全世界以及美国犹太人的安全。从理论上讲,这可以与以色列和巴勒斯坦发生的事情区分开来。但在现实世界中,那里发生的事情与反犹太主义的爆发之间存在着联系,这使得许多美国犹太家庭为自己的安全感到担忧。第二点,是巴勒斯坦人民的安全和尊严,在加沙,但不仅仅是在加沙的巴勒斯坦人,遭受了可怕的暴力,在我看来,这属于战争罪行。与此并列的是以色列人民的安全和尊严,作为一个国家,我们与他们有着安全关系,并且自从犹太国家以色列建立以来就一直如此;作为犹太国家的以色列的未来和生存,并且这个国家仍在应对自大屠杀以来针对犹太人最暴力的、最糟糕的一天。我相信原则上这三件事可以同时得到尊重。事实上,我相信原则上它们必须同时得到尊重。

Original English

Secretary: Well, it's getting a lot of attention because many very important things are at stake and they've been put into conflict with each other, right? And each of those things is a valid thing, at least in my opinion. And I'll name three. One which has become very challenging for many Jewish Americans, is the safety of Jews around the world and in America. Theoretically, that could be separated from what's happening in Israel and Palestine. But in the real world, there's been a relationship between what's going on there and an explosion in anti-semitism that has many American Jewish families afraid for their safety. Another thing is the safety and dignity of Palestinian people who in Gaza, but not only in Gaza, have been subjected to horrific violence and in my opinion war crimes. And alongside that, there is the safety and dignity of people in Israel who we have a security relationship with as a country and have since the Jewish state of Israel was founded, the future and survival of Israel as a Jewish state and a country that is still responding to the worst day of the most violence against Jews since the Holocaust. Those three things I believe in principle can be honored at the same time. In fact, I believe in principle they have to be honored at the same time.

内塔尼亚胡的意图与“大以色列”

Interviewer: 这是内塔尼亚胡想要的吗?

Original English

Interviewer: Is that what Netanyahu wants?

Secretary: 不,我不认为他有一丝一毫关心巴勒斯坦人民的安全、尊严和保障。我认为他觉得如果他们不存在,或者至少他不希望他们在周围,他的处境会更好。对吧。所以我们看到一项政策,很明显,这项政策导致了它在加沙的所作所为,而且在西岸也是如此,虽然那里受到的关注较少,也许是因为那里的死亡人数较少,但定居者的行为、举止和暴力相当可怕,这是一项计划的一部分,旨在使建立一个安全、可行的巴勒斯坦国成为不可能。那么,内塔尼亚胡在该地区想要什么?好吧,我不知道我是否比看透特朗普的心思更能看透内塔尼亚胡的心思。但看看他的选择,他似乎希望能够确立对任何其他地区参与者的统治地位,以及一些超越仅仅为以色列人民提供安全和保障的东西——这是我所相信的,也是我认为难以争辩的事情——但除此之外还有别的东西,那就是在他的意识形态和世界观中接管所谓的“大以色列”的计划。

Original English

Secretary: No, I don't think he is remotely interested in the safety and dignity and security of Palestinian people. I think he believes that he would be better off if they didn't exist or at the very least he doesn't want them around. Right. And so we see a policy which obviously has led to what it did in Gaza, but also in the West Bank, which gets less attention, maybe because there's been fewer deaths there, but pretty horrific behavior and conduct and violence from settlers that is part of a project of making it impossible for there to be a secure, viable Palestinian state. So, what does Netanyahu want in the region? Well, I don't know that I'm much more capable of seeing into the mind of Netanyahu than I am seeing into the mind of Trump. But looking into his choices, it seems that he wants to be able to assert domination of any other regional player and something that is beyond just security and safety for the people of Israel, which is something that I believe in and something I think is hard to argue with, but something else, which is a project of taking over what is called greater Israel in his ideology and his worldview.

Interviewer: 恩典以色列(误听为“大以色列”)。

Original English

Interviewer: Grace Israel.

Secretary: 是的,大以色列,这个愿景在从河流到海洋的任何地方都没有给巴勒斯坦人留下多少生存空间。他不会用这些字眼来表达,但如果你看看他的行动,很难相信他会满足于比这更少的东西。你对特朗普如何对待内塔尼亚胡以及他们之间的关系有何看法?那是你原本会拥有的关系吗?

Original English

Secretary: Yeah, that's Israel, which is a vision that does not have a lot of room for Palestinians anywhere between the river and the sea. He won't say it in those terms, but if you look at his actions, it is hard to believe that he is comfortable with anything less. What's your take on how Trump has treated Netanyahu and that relationship? Is that the relationship you would have had?

Interviewer: 那不是我想要的关系。嗯,我认为就像特朗普的所有事情一样,这是相当交易性的。这是功利性的。这是“这对我有什么好处”。我认为这种关系现在之所以演变成一种“敌友”关系,部分原因在于,你知道,那种曾经在政治上对他有利的关系,现在对他不那么有利了。因为除了别的事情之外,内塔尼亚胡有利益让美国继续留在一场伊朗战争中,而这场战争已经从特朗普原本认为在政治上对他有用的事情,变成了在政治上对特朗普危险的事情。部长,你认为这件事会如何收场?你认为会发生什么?你知道,我之前曾假设过,到2028年这仍然会拖延下去,因为从我的角度来看,你要么对美国公众撒谎,宣布取得某种胜利,要么你就得继续留在那儿。我个人实在看不到第三种选择。那么,你想象这件事会如何收场?

Original English

Interviewer: It's not the relationship I would add. Um, I think like all things with Trump, it's pretty transactional. It's instrumental. It's what's in it for me. And I think part of how that has developed into a friendmy relationship now is that, you know, the relationship that maybe served him well politically is not so good for him now. Because among other things, Netanyahu has an interest in a continued US presence in an Iran war that has gone from being something Trump would thought would be politically useful for Trump to something that is politically dangerous for Trump. How do you think this plays out, Secretary? What do you think happens? You know, I said there I sort of hypothesized that by 2028 this will still be dragging on because from my perspective, you're either going to kind of lie to the American public and say that and declare some kind of victory or you're going to stay in there. I can't actually see a third option personally. So, how how do you imagine this playing out?

预测与伊朗的冲突

Secretary: 必须得有办法从伊朗抽身。我的意思是,我们不能就这样。首先,总统已经退缩了很多,尽管他永远不会承认我们去那里是为了做什么,因为他曾说过无条件投降。那并没有发生。他曾说过政权更迭。政权也没有更迭。我们从阿亚图拉·哈梅内伊变成了一个“小哈梅内伊”,至少表面上是这样。谁知道那家伙是死是活,但政权还在。而这个政权的整个意识形态都是建立在仇恨美国的基础上的,对吧?现在美国做出了这样的事情,很难相信情况会发生改变。必须有一种退出方式,这种退出极不可能是特朗普所承诺的无条件投降,但必须是这个国家、我们的国家、美国人可以容忍的事情,其中包括通过霍尔木兹海峡的航行自由。而且我认为,实现这一目标的唯一途径,是与众多希望同样结果发生的国际伙伴合作。记住,在伊朗以东的任何国家,由于海峡发生的事情,感受到的经济痛苦甚至比我们还要强烈。中国和——

Original English

Secretary: There's got to be a way to get out of Iran. Like, we just cannot. First of all, the president has already backpedled a lot, even though he would never admit it on what we're there to do because he said unconditional surrender. That's not happening. He said regime change. Regime hasn't changed. We went from Ayatollah Kame toy Kame Jr. at least on paper. Who knows if the guy's alive, but the regime is alive. But the regime's entire ideology is based on hating the United States, right? And now that the United States has done this, hard to believe that's going to change. There will have to be an exit that is very unlikely to be the unconditional surrender that Trump promised, but has to be something that is tolerable to this country, to our country, to Americans, which includes passage through the Straits of Hormos. And the only way to do that, I think, is with a lot of international partners who want the same thing to happen. Remember, anyone east of Iran is feeling more economic pain even than we are from what's happening in the straits. China and

Interviewer: 是的,因为东亚更依赖途径那里的石油和货物。

Original English

Interviewer: yeah because East Asia relies on oil and and goods that go through there more.

Secretary: 所以我认为你必须建立一种地区和国际伙伴关系,确保至少类似于货物的自由通行和安全,而无需美国派兵进入那里或继续处于战争状态。这似乎是唯一的出路,但这毫无疑问比我们一年前战争开始前的情况更糟。你最近有没有听说特朗普提到过,我想是在七国集团峰会上,我们的储备大概会在四周内耗尽。你知道,世界各地都有石油储备,如果我们的储备真的耗尽了,那就会有一段时间我们无法获得石油。那将是天下大乱。他在上个月,也就是2026年的七国集团峰会上,就美国石油储备剩余量发表了这些评论。我想他是围绕他为什么与他们签署这份谅解备忘录、这份协议来进行阐述的。但是,你知道,在过去的一周里,我们又回到了战争状态,霍尔木兹海峡似乎又被封锁了。

Original English

Secretary: So I think what you're going to have to have is a regional and international partnership that ensures something at least resembling free passage of goods and security without the US sending troops in there or continuing to be at war. It's it's it's seems like the only way, but it's unquestionably worse than where we were a year ago before the war started. Did you hear recently that Trump mentioned I think it was at the G7 summit, we run out of reserves about 4 weeks. You know, there are reserves all over the world and we would really run out and there'll be time when we wouldn't be able to get it. It would be bedum. and he made these comments last month 2026 at the G7 summit in regards to the amount of oil the United States have left in the reserves. He was I think he was framing it around why he signed this memorandum of understanding this agreement with them. But you know in the last week we've gone back to war and the straight of Hermuse appears to be closed again.

Interviewer: 因此,当我们思考石油储备及其如何影响普通美国人,以及即将可能发生什么时,这里存在着寻求解决方案并找到——

Original English

Interviewer: So when we think about oil reserves and how that impacts ordinary Americans and what might be around the corner there's a real pressure here to find a solution and to find a

Secretary: 是的。我是说,看,这就是为什么他签署了一份坦率地说更多是建立在伊朗条款上而不是美国条款上的谅解备忘录。我的意思是,所谓的停火协议,实际上是我们对伊朗提出的方案做出回应的结果,而不是反过来。再次强调,他曾说过他的目标是政权更迭和无条件投降。我们甚至不再谈论那个了。我们离那还差得远呢。现在我们面临的是一系列条件。是我们给他们的文本画红线修改,而不是反过来,对吧?然后他试图弄清楚,我要怎么出去推销这个?所以他指出了一些真实的事情。有时候,当说真话对他有利时,他也会说真话。当他试图解释为什么他在战争目标上退缩时,他的解释方式是承认,由于封锁海峡而引发了某种程度的经济脆弱性,这是伊朗对美国袭击做出的回应。对吧?但问题是,那场停火并没有发生。至少在你我此刻坐在这里的时候没有发生。这对他们来说仍然是一件难以承认的事情。你知道,这就跟当初他宁愿拿出一支马克笔去修改飓风地图,也不愿承认自己在一次国家灾难中的某个细节上犯了错一样,曾经他的政府从这次冲突中阵亡将士的名单上删除了四个名字,因为他们害怕列出这些名字会与他说我们已经停火的说法相矛盾。

Original English

Secretary: Yes. I mean, look, this is why he signed an MOU that was frankly more on Iranian terms than American terms. I mean, the ceasefire, so-called ceasefire, emerged from a deal that was really us responding to what Iran came up with, not vice versa. Again, he said he was out for regime change and unconditional surrender. We're not even talking about that anymore. We're nowhere near that. And now what we have is a set of conditions. It's us redlinining their text, not the other way around, right? And then he's trying to figure out how do I go out and sell that? And so he points out something that is true. Sometimes he tells the truth when it serves him. And when he was trying to explain why he backpedalled on his war goals, the way he explained it was by admitting that there was a level of economic vulnerability that was unleashed by closing the straight, which is what Iran did to respond to the US attacks. Right? But the problem is that ceasefire is not happening. At least not as you and I are sitting here right now. still a hard thing for them to admit. You know, in the same way that he took out a Sharpie to modify a hurricane map rather than acknowledge that he was mistaken about some detail uh during a national disaster once his administration deleted four names from the ranks of those killed in action in this conflict because they were afraid that listing their names would contradict him saying that we had a ceasefire.

Interviewer: 真的吗?是的。

Original English

Interviewer: Really? Yeah.

Secretary: 至少那是我能想到的唯一解释。疯狂的——

Original English

Secretary: At least that's the only explanation I can think of. The crazy

关于特朗普与“偏向行动”的执行力

Interviewer: 事实是我们所有人都知道那里正在发生战争。我们甚至有过一些时刻,记得吗,我想是卢比奥(Rubio)部长在国会说的,在国会说谎是要受惩罚的,你知道的,你应该是对国会说了谎。他说,“战争结束了。我们都知道战争还没有结束。” 他们是陷入僵局了吗?因为在我看来他们似乎有点陷入了困境。我之前看海格塞斯(Hegseth)在,我想那是在国会前。对,前几天是在国会。他们只是把他的原话一遍又一遍、一遍又一遍地向他复述。是的,因为他该如何解释我们在打一场据说我们已经赢了的战争,我们没有得到任何据说值得去开战的东西,而且为此买单的税款还在不断增加。我想他最新的数字是375亿美元。那都是我们的钱,是我们所有美国纳税人的钱。当然,还有生命的代价,以及在美国各方面所付出的代价,从汽油开始,变得更加暴露于风险之中。他们不想解释这些,对吧?但他们也没有一个很好的出路,而且他们并没有准备好带领我们走向一个更好的地方,因为他们甚至都不知道那是什么样子。对于特朗普,你有什么尊重的地方吗?

Original English

Interviewer: thing is all of us know there's a war. We've even had moments, remember, I think it was Secretary Rubio said in Congress where there's punishment for lying, you know, you're supposed to lie to Congress. He said, "The war's over. We all know the war's not over." Are they stuck? Because they seem a bit stuck to me. I was watching Hegseth in front of I think it was Congress. Yeah, it was Congress the other day. And they're just repeating his quotes back to him over and over and over and over again. Yeah, because how's he supposed to explain that we're in a war that supposedly we already won, that we're not getting any of the things that were supposedly worth going to war over, and that the bill for this keeps getting bigger in terms of tax dollars. I think his latest number was 37.5 billion. That's our money, all of us as American taxpayers. And of course, the cost in lives and the cost in terms of everything in America, starting with gas, being more exposed. They don't want to be explaining that, right? But they don't have a great way out either and they're not prepared to lead us to a better place because they don't even know what it looks like. Is there anything you respect about Trump?

Pete Buttigieg: 当然。嗯,我认为他已经成功地制造出一种“偏向行动(bias for action)”的印象,我认为他在这方面获得了很大的认可。我认为,总的来说,尤其是在政府部门,有很多那种让人束手无策的繁文缛节,比如“哦,我们必须得有一个19步的流程才能把这些事情全部搞定”。我在担任交通部长期间,曾花了四年时间试图在这个国家推进建设,我看到这里有太多的条条框框,太多的官僚繁文缛节,而他上台后就会说,“不,不那么做。我们直接这么干就行了。” 现在的实际情况是,通常他正在做的事情最后会被证明是非法的,然后被撤销。而且很明显,我认为他的大多数政策都极具破坏性。但我认为,你必须尊重他用那种“先做了再说”的偏向行动所产生的效应。而且我认为我们可以从中吸取一点教训。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: Sure. Um I think he has been able to create the impression of a bias for action and I think he gets a lot of credit for that. I think in general and especially in government there's a lot of hand ringing like oh we got to have a 19-step process to get all these things exactly. I saw this during my four years trying to get stuff built in this country as Secretary of Transportation that there were so many hoops and so much red tape and he comes in and he says like, "Nope, not doing that. We're just going to do this." Now. Often what he's doing turns out to be illegal and it gets reversed. And obviously I think most of his policies are terribly destructive. But I I think you have to respect the effect that he has had with that kind of bias toward just doing something. And I think we could learn a bit from that.

Interviewer: 这是不是在证明,我们应该让更少的政客掌权,而让更多的企业家来领导?

Original English

Interviewer: Is that a case for less politicians in power and more entrepreneurs?

Pete Buttigieg: 听着,我认为他就是一个彻头彻尾的政客。我认为,在某种层面上,每一个首席执行官都是政客。每一个将军都是政客。每一个主教也都是政客。你只要达到了一定的级别,如果你对自己诚实的话,你所做的事情中就有一部分属于所谓的政治。顺便说一句,我说的“政治”并不是一个贬义词。我的意思是它是在组织人们的选择、忠诚,并组织力量以把事情做成。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: Look, I I think he's a politician through and through. I think that on some level every CEO is a politician. Every general is a politician. Every bishop is a politician. You just reach a certain level where part of what you're doing, if you're being honest with yourself, is is what is considered politics. Which, by the way, I don't mean in a pejorative way. I mean it's organizing people's choices, loyalties, and organizing power in order to get things done.

Interviewer: 我觉得区别在于——我理解你所说的。我觉得区别,特别是对于创始人来说是,嗯,创始人是从零开始然后取得了一番成就,因为……

Original English

Interviewer: I think the difference I I I understand what you're saying. I think the difference especially with founders is um founders got from started at zero and got somewhere because

Pete Buttigieg: 他们必须拥有高度的“偏向行动”特质。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: they had to be like highly have a high bias to action.

Interviewer: 是的。要相信那些高墙是用纸做的,并具有破坏性,有些——我的意思是,他们之所以成功,原因就在于这种破坏性。

Original English

Interviewer: Yes. Believe that walls were made of paper and be disruptive and some I mean that the reason they are successful is because of disruption.

Pete Buttigieg: 是的。创始人最棒的一点在于,他们看到了某种可能是……

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: Yeah. The best thing about founders is they see something that could be

Interviewer: 是的。

Original English

Interviewer: Yeah.

Pete Buttigieg: 而且事情的现状根本无法困扰他们。他们只看到了那个愿景,然后就去追求它,他们会冲破阻挡在他们和目标之间的每一堵墙,把事情搞定。这就是创始人最棒的地方。从政治角度来看,创始人最糟糕的地方在于,有时候,因为他们在某一方面做得太好了——甚至是那种世所罕见、史无前例的好,他们就会想象自己在所有事情上都很擅长。是的。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: And the way things are just doesn't even bother them. They just see that vision and they just go after it and they blow through every wall between them and getting it done. That's the best thing about founders. The worst thing about founders from a political perspective is that sometimes because they were so good at one thing, like uniquely sometimes world historically good at one thing, they imagine that they're good at everything. Yeah.

Interviewer: 现在的麻烦并不只限于创始人。这大概是很多聪明人的通病。

Original English

Interviewer: Now, that's not just a problem with founders. That's probably lots of smart people.

Pete Buttigieg: 是的。但政治要求你在自己不懂的领域保持那么一点点谦逊,让你周围充满在他们各自负责的领域比你更聪明的人,而不是幻想自己掌握了所有的答案。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: Yeah. But politics requires you to be a little bit humble about how much you don't know and surround yourself by people who are smarter than you at whatever it is they're in charge of and not imagine that you've got all the answers.

Interviewer: 创始人讨厌官僚主义。

Original English

Interviewer: Founders hate bureaucracy.

Pete Buttigieg: 是的。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: Yeah.

Interviewer: 这就是为什么他们常常……

Original English

Interviewer: This is why they often

Pete Buttigieg: 我的意思是,看,我对官僚主义也很不耐烦。我深信“政策企业家”的理念,这种人能够敏锐地发现:这里有个问题,这里有一大堆解决方案,然后这儿有一个机会之窗,让我们把这一切串联起来并实现它。但同时,法律之所以存在,是为了保护人们。当我们谈论官僚主义时,我们其实也是在谈论法律。当然,有时候这些法律需要被修改、被简化,精简到最重要的事情上。我在任职初期就深刻体会到了这一点,有时我试图作为一名政策企业家去推行某事,但有人对我踩了刹车,用官僚程序阻止了这件事。有时他们是对的。有时他们让我变得更好。他们通过与我抗争,让我更加明确了自己究竟想要做什么。你刚才提到的另一个问题,我认为在接下来的24个月里将会非常切题,并且在美国人——我敢说尤其是那些正在考虑找工作、即将步入职场的年轻美国人中间——正引起越来越多的关注,那就是人工智能的话题。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: I mean look, I'm pretty impatient with bureaucracy, too. Like I I believe in the idea of a policy entrepreneur who can recognize here's a problem, here's a whole bunch of solutions and here's a window of opportunity and let's just like line it all up and make it happen. It's also laws exist in order to protect people. And when we're talking about bureaucracy, like we're really talking about laws. Now, sometimes those laws need to be changed, simplified, stripped down to the most important things. I learned this very early on in my time in office where sometimes I was trying to get something done as a policy entrepreneur and somebody tapped the brakes on me and used a bureaucracy to do it. Sometimes they were right. Sometimes they made me better. They made me sharpen what I was trying to do by fighting me. The other issue you mentioned a second ago that I think is going to be really pertinent over the next 24 months and is increasing in interest amongst Americans, I'd say especially young Americans that are thinking about getting a job and going into the workforce is the subject of artificial intelligence.

关于人工智能与未来政策

Interviewer: 过去几年里,我在节目中采访过许多人工智能专家,我也深入思考过那些大型人工智能公司的首席执行官们随时间推移所发表的各种言论,以及这些话是如何演变的。嗯,如果你回溯到几年前,那还是充满厄运与悲观的论调。但现在,既然他们经营着价值数万亿美元的公司,这些言论似乎突然变得乐观了许多。我认为他们确实同意的一点是,将会出现显著的就业洗牌,尤其是如果你看看Anthropic——Claude的制造商——的一些报告,他们已经指出,入门级职位首先面临风险,特别是入门级的知识型工作。人们感到害怕。我第一次看埃里克·施密特(Eric Schmidt)那场演讲时,大学里的观众只要他一提到AI这个词就会发出嘘声,人们对AI的这种情绪想必会加速蔓延,部分原因是人们将发现越来越难找到工作,而且他们会越来越多地体验到AI渗透到他们生活中的方方面面。嗯哼。你对所有这一切有何看法?关于AI的好的一面、坏的一面、以及丑陋的风险,这其中的平衡点究竟在哪里?

Original English

Interviewer: Talked to a lot of AI experts on my show over the last couple of years and I've also reflected a lot on the different types of comments that the CEOs of the big AI companies have made through time and how those quotes have changed. Um, if you go back a couple of years, it was doom and gloom. But now that they are running trillion dollar companies, the quotes seem to be a bit more optimistic all of a sudden. One thing that that I think they do agree on is that there's going to be significant job disruption, especially if you look at some of anthropics reports, which are the maker of Claude, they already show that entry level positions are at risk first, especially entry-level knowledge jobs. And people are scared. first time I saw that Eric Schmidt speech where the crowds, the college audience are booing every time he says the word AI, this is presumably going to accelerate this sentiment towards AI and in part because people are going to find it harder to get jobs and they're going to experience more more of AI sort of permeating through their life. Mhm. How do you feel about all of this? What is the what is the balance of of AI, good, bad, ugly risks?

Pete Buttigieg: 我认为它可能包含所有这些方面。关于AI的发展方向,我们必须做出一些决定。我最简单的说法是这样的。我们要么面临这样一个未来:因为人工智能,我们每周的工作时间变得更短,口袋里的钱变得更多;要么我们面临另一个未来:这个国家的财富和权力将比现在更加极度地集中。至于究竟走向哪个方向,发生上述哪种情况,这实际上并不取决于技术本身。这不是一个技术问题。这是一个政策选择。这取决于我们是否确保这些技术以一种能够赋予家庭、工人和大学毕业生权能的方式去发展,并管控好它可能带来的所有危害。每一项技术都会带来好的和坏的影响。我们在数字技术上确实看到了这一点。我们在社交媒体上看到了。我们甚至在互联网本身也看到了这一点。总是利弊并存。人工智能拥有不可思议的能力。我经常思考一些通常不在人们讨论的前十名之列的事情,那就是自动驾驶汽车。人们很容易对它们感到恐慌。但它们实际上拥有拯救生命的巨大潜力。这只是一个例子,说明如果我们负责任地开发这些技术,我们的生活能够变得多么美好。但如果不这么做,我可以告诉你我认为会发生什么。我的这个观点是基于我成长的地方的,对吧?我来自中西部的工业区,印第安纳州北部,一个被汽车工业主导的地方。从60年代开始,但尤其是在我成长过程中的90年代以及2000年代初,由于经济在转型,那里出现了大量的失业。当时发生的情况是,有很大一部分人不仅仅是失去了工作。通常情况下,他们失去了工作,也许又找到了一份新工作,也许甚至接受了培训开始了一段新职业,但却再也没有找回自己的身份认同感。你曾经是个汽车工人。你在一家工具和模具店里工作。你所有的归属感都围绕着你的工作。不仅仅是你的薪水单。这也是你们的配偶如何在工会野餐时互相认识的纽带。这就是你们如何赞助少年棒球联盟的方式。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: I think it can be all of those things. And we've got some decisions to make about where AI goes. And the simplest way I put it is this. Either we're looking at a future where because of AI, we have a shorter work week and more money in our pocket, or we're looking at a future where there is even more extreme concentration of wealth and power in this country than we've already got. and which way it goes, which of those things happen. It's actually not something that's in the technology. It's not a tech question. It's a policy choice. It's about whether we make sure these technologies unfold in a way that is empowering for families and workers and college graduates and manage all of the harms that could come from it. Every technology brings good and bad things. And we've certainly seen that with digital technology. We've seen it with social media. We've seen it with the internet itself. Good and bad things always. AI has incredible capabilities. I think a lot about uh something that's not usually in the top 10 thing people talk about, but it's self-driving vehicles. Easy to be freaked out by them. They actually have enormous potential to save lives. That's just one example of how we could be better off if we responsibly develop these technologies. But if we don't, I'll tell you what I think could happen. And I come at this based on where I grew up, right? I'm from the industrial Midwest, northern Indiana, a place dominated by the auto industry. And starting in the 60s, but definitely in the 90s when I was growing up in the early 2000s, there was a huge amount of job loss because the economy was changing. What happened was there were a whole lot of people who didn't just lose their jobs. Often they would lose their jobs, maybe find another job, maybe be trained to find a new career even, but never recovered their sense of identity. You're an auto worker. You're in a tool and die shop. And it's your your whole sense of belonging revolves around your job. Not just your paycheck. It's how your spouses know each other from the union picnic. It's it's how you're sponsoring little league.

身份认同的颠覆与人工智能的冲击

Speaker A: 这就是你所解释的。你知道,至少在美国,我们甚至不会问“你的工作是什么?”我们会问“你是做什么的?”对吧?我们的意思是,你的职业是什么,但我们问“你是做什么的”基本上是在问“你是谁?”。这对于蓝领工人来说是真实的。这对于白领工人来说甚至更加真实。因此,我认为有一代工人的身份认同,不仅仅是他们的工作,而是他们的身份认同,即将被颠覆。在我们能否找到新的、或更好的归属感来源的问题上,你的工作可能会决定你在未来几年里生活在这个国家的感觉和状态。我刚才在想你所说的在印第安纳州中西部长大的经历。嗯,在汽车工业中制造汽车的人们。你还使用了完全自动驾驶汽车作为一个净收益的例子。但是当我把这两件事结合起来时,我想,好吧,所以现在工厂里的人们正面临着被机器人取代的风险。

Original English

Speaker A: It's what you explain. You know, at least in the US, we don't even say like what's your job? We say what do you do? Right? What we mean is what do you do professionally, but we say what do you do basically as a way of saying who are you? And that's true for blue collar workers. That's even more true for white collar workers. And so I think that there is a generation of workers who are about to have their identity, not just their job, their identity disrupted. Whether we can come up with new sources or better sources of belonging, then what your job is could decide everything about what it feels like and is like to live in this country within the next few years. And I just think about what you said there about growing up in the Midwest. Um, people working in the auto industry making cars. And you also use the example of full self-driving vehicles being a net positive. But when I put those two things together, I thought, okay, so the people in the factories are at risk of being replaced by robotics now.

Speaker B: 机器人的发展正在巨大地加速,不管是人形机器人,还是普遍具有智能的机器,这些都已经近在眼前了。这不再是理论,也不再是科幻小说。他们现在正在制造它们。Sam Altman 说过:“按照目前的发展轨迹,我们相信我们可能只需要几年的时间,就能看到真正的超级智能的早期版本。如果我们是对的,到2028年底,世界上大部分的智力能力可能会存在于数据中心内部,而不是在它们之外。” Anthropic 的创始人 Dario 也说过:“如果指数级增长继续下去,那么在人工智能在基本上所有事情上都比人类更好之前,绝对不可能超过几年。” 这样的名言还有很多很多。Google 的 Demis 说:“我们距离能够在各个方面都拥有通用人类水平智能的系统只有几年,也许不到十年的时间。” 埃隆·马斯克在本周的一次采访中谈到,由于机器人带来的是物理层面的颠覆,而人工智能带来的是智力层面的颠覆,你就拥有了完美的结合,工作将成为一种选择。这对中西部的那些人意味着什么呢?因为 Dara(Uber 的 CEO),在疫情期间坐在我面前说,他拥有的900万名司机将会被取代。嗯,但现在同样,如果我考虑生产线,制造汽车的人在理论上也可能面临风险。总会有一些值得我们花时间去做的事情。我们需要安排一种经济模式,来奖励那些值得我们花时间去做的事情,尤其是只有人类才能做的事情。其中一些是创造性的工作。其中一些是非常人性化的工作,比如照顾他人。我越来越多地思考这个问题,因为我属于这个“三明治一代”,既要照顾孩子,又要同时照顾年迈的父母。但是,这些事情是否会得到回报,才是我所担心的。我的意思是,想象一个世界,仅仅为了想象,你有一台机器可以制造越来越多的东西。就像《星际迷航》里的复制机一样。你知道,我小时候很喜欢《星际迷航》。皮卡德舰长走到它面前。他只是说,“给我一杯茶。伯爵红茶,热的。” 然后它就变出来了,对吧?想象一下人工智能和机器人的某种结合,导致了工厂在随着时间的推移可以做到这一点。你需要的工人越来越少。这意味着经济中越来越少的部分依赖于这些工人能够要求的工资,因为你需要的工人更少了。这意味着越来越多的东西将取决于谁实际拥有这台机器,我指的是知识产权、人工智能,以及物理工厂,对吧?这就是我们必须确保美国人民拥有足够多这些东西的地方,或者至少拥有足够多正在创造的价值,以便满足人们的需求。

Original English

Speaker B: >> Huge acceleration in robotics, both humanoid, but just generally intelligent machines, which is right here. It's not theoretical. It's not sci-fi anymore. They're building them right now. And Sam Alman said, "On the current trajectory, we believe we may only be a couple of years away from early versions of true super intelligence. If we are right, by the end of 2028, more of the world's intellectual capacity could reside in inside of a data center than outside of them." Daria, who's also the founder of Anthropic, said, "If the exponential continues, then it cannot possibly be more than a few years before AI is better than humans at essentially everything." And the quotes go on and on and on. Dennis from Google said, "We're only a few years, maybe within a decade away from systems that have general human level intelligence across the board." And Elon Musk in an interview this week talked about how with robots being physical um disruption and AI being intellectual disruption, you have the perfect combination where work will become a choice. What does that mean for those people in the Midwest? Because Darra, the COVID, sat there in front of me and said the 9 million drivers he had would be replaced. Um, but also now you're if I think about the production line, the people making the cars as well theoretically could be at risk. There's always going to be something worth doing with our time. We need to arrange an economy that rewards things that are worth doing with our time, especially things that only people can do. Some of that is creative work. Some of that is very human work like caregiving. I'm thinking about this more and more because I belong to this sandwich generation that's taking care of kids and aging parents at the same time. But whether those kinds of things are rewarded or not is what I worry about. I mean, imagine a m a world where just for the sake of imagination, you've got a machine that can make more and more things. It's like the replicator from Star Trek. You know, I love Star Trek as a kid. Captain Peicard goes up to him. He just says like, "Give me a cup of tea. Earl Grey, hot." And like it happens, right? Imagine a some combination of artificial intelligence and robotics that leads to factories where you can kind of do that over time. You need fewer and fewer people in them. And that means that less and less in the economy depends on the wages that those workers can command because you need fewer of them. That means more and more is going to depend on well who actually owns the machine by which I mean both the intellectual property the AI and the the physical plant right and that's where we've got to make sure that the American people own enough of this or at least own enough of the value that's being created that people's needs can be met.

公众红利与时间管理

Speaker A: 有很多方法可以做到这一点。呃,我认为某种形式的红利是合理的。我的意思是,有某种公共份额。我们可以争论它是否应该伴随着某种投票权,比如在董事会上,或者它是否更接近于一种税收。顺便说一下,我认为这也是公平的。我的意思是,这些模型是在我们所有人免费投入到世界中的数据上训练出来的。这些模型基于互联网,而互联网是由美国纳税人在20世纪60年代基本上免费创造的,当时DARPA,即美国国防高级研究计划局,创造了后来成为互联网的东西。而现在是时候将更多这些回报给美国人民了。如果你这样做,我们真的可以拥有更短的工作周,并在我们的口袋里拥有更多的钱。但是这里有一个很大的“但是”,那就是在节省劳动力的技术方面,事情并不总是这样的。100年前,经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)写了一篇名为《我们孙辈的经济可能性》的文章。他是在1930年写下这篇文章的,文章完全是关于一百年后,也就是2030年,世界会是什么样子。他预测,因为自动化、技术和所有这些东西,我们经济的生产力将增长大约五到八倍。正因为如此,实际上,我们每周将不需要工作超过10或15个小时。到目前为止,我们几乎完美地实现了他对生产力的预测。但我们距离那个工作时间的目标还差得很远。如果说有什么不同的话,那就是我们现在工作得更多了。那么,这是怎么发生的呢?事实证明,这与政策选择有关,即什么才是对时间的良好利用或非良好利用,同时也与社会选择有关,对吧?我的意思是,我经常思考的一个问题是,如果我们进入了最好的可能情境,我们的政策选择是正确的,我们确保公司行为端正。这要求很高,但想象一下我们确实做到了,而且实际上,你知道,我们大多数人都有一个更短的工作周和更多的钱。我们怎么知道我们将如何利用我们的时间?因为在很多方面,我认为我们中的许多人都渴望有更多的时间来利用。嗯,我知道只做我自己的事,我,我希望我有更多的时间和我的孩子们在一起。这总是政治家的哀叹,但就像任何在紧张工作岗位上的人一样,他们都希望自己能有更多的时间和自己爱的人在一起。但是,你知道,现在我们很多时间也被吸收了,对吧?滑动浏览那些你花了一个小时去做,一个小时后却什么也没留下的事情。这完全就像你没有做过一样。

Original English

Speaker A: >> How well there's a lot of ways you can do it. Uh I think some version of a dividend makes sense. What I mean by that is there's some public share. We can argue about whether it should come with like a vote like being on a board or whether it's kind of closer to a tax. By the way, I think this is also fair game. I mean, these things trained on data that all of us put in the world for free. These things are based on the internet, which was created by the American taxpayer basically free of charge in the 1960s when DARPA, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, created what became the internet. and and now it's time to return more of that to the American people. You do that, we really could have a shorter work week and more money in our pocket. But there's a big butt here, which is it hasn't always worked out that way with laborsaving technology. A 100 years ago, the economist John Maynard Kanes wrote wrote an essay called economic possibilities for our grandchildren. He wrote this in 1930 and it was all about what the world would be like a hundred years from then, so 2030. And he predicts that the productivity of our economy because of automation, technology, all these things will go up something like five to eightfold. And because of that, really, we're not going to have to work more than 10 or 15 hours a week. And so far, we are on track to almost perfectly match his prediction about productivity. But we're nowhere close to that. If anything, we're working more right now. So, how does that happen? Well, it turns out that has to do with policy choices about what is or isn't a good use of time and it has to do with social choices too, right? I mean, one question I think about a lot is if we go into the best possible scenario, we get the policy choices right, we make sure the companies act right. This is saying a lot, but imagine that we do and we do in fact have, you know, most of us have a shorter work week and more money in our pocket. How do we know we're going to use our time? Well, because in many ways I think many of us are aching to have more time to use. Well, I know just doing my thing, I I wish I had more time with my kids. This is always the lament of a politician, but like anybody in a intense job wishes they had more time with people they love. But, you know, also a lot of our time right now is being absorbed by right? Scrolling things where you spend an hour doing it and an hour later nothing sticks. It's exactly as if you hadn't

Speaker B: 你后悔投入了那一小时,是的,或者你感觉更糟,但那一小时已经消失了。

Original English

Speaker B: >> you regret put your hour yeah or you feel worse but the hour is gone.

Speaker A: 所以我们需要弄清楚如何也能成为我们自己更好的时间管理者。顺便说一下,这些不仅是——这听起来像是一个非常典型的21世纪问题,从某种意义上说确实如此。但是你知道,斯多葛派哲学家塞内卡,罗马哲学家在2000多年前就写过这类东西,讨论我们是如何对谁能得到我们的钱如此小心谨慎,而且如果有人看起来在欺骗我们或拿走我们的钱,我们就会非常愤怒;但是我们的时间呢,这是我们完全有理由比对待金钱更加吝啬的一件事,因为你可以赚更多的钱,但你不能在你的生命中获得更多的时间。我们却任由它以各种方式被浪费掉。伯尼有一个提案,他认为我们应该采取——我知道我在阅读关于你的资料,你知道,关于你在大学里发现伯尼(桑德斯),对吧?是不是高中?

Original English

Speaker A: >> So we need to figure out how to also be better stewards of our own time. These by the way are not just not this this sounds like a very 21st century problem and in one way it is but you know the stoic philosopher Senica the Roman philosophers writing about this kind of stuff more than 2,000 years ago talking about how we are so careful about who can get our money and and and are very up in arms if anybody looks like they're cheating us or taking our money but then our time which is the one thing where we have every reason to be uh even more stingy about it than money because you can get more money but you can't get more time in your life. We let it get wasted in all kinds of ways. Bernie has this proposal where he believes we should take and I know I was reading about you know you discovering Bernie I believe in college right wasn't it high school

Speaker B: 其实是在高中。

Original English

Speaker B: actually in high school

Speaker A: 他有一个提案,认为我们应该拿走这些人工智能公司50%的股票,赋予公众50%的所有权和董事会投票席位,以阻止扼杀就业的决定,并将人工智能的利润直接重新分配给公民,用于医疗保健、教育和住房。这是一个可行的提案,其中一部分与我所谈论的重叠。我确实认为利润的公共份额——这可能意味着所有权的公共份额——是说得通的。再次强调,由于我之前分享的原因,我认为那将是公平的。我确实认为我们需要权衡,确保公众对这些公司的行为方式有发言权的正确方法是否是进入董事会。

Original English

Speaker A: he has a proposal where we should take 50% of the stock of these AI companies gives the general public 50% ownership and board voting seats to block jobk killing decisions and re redistribute AI profits directly to citizens for healthcare education and housing viable proposal part of that overlaps with what I'm talking about I do think a public share of the profits which could mean a public share of the ownership can make sense. And again, for reasons that I I shared earlier, I I think that would be fair. I do think we need to weigh whether the right way to make sure the public has a say in how these companies behave is to be on the board

Speaker B: 还是说,仅仅有一些规则来确保规则的存在,使得公司能够做他们最擅长的事情,创造价值,进行创新,

Original English

Speaker B: >> versus just to have some rules to make sure that the rules are such that the companies can do what they do best, create value, innovate,

Speaker A: 但他们不能以一种伤害人们的方式去做,这通常是监管应该发挥作用的方式。我的意思是,我这么说是因为我曾经在——

Original English

Speaker A: >> but they can't do it in a way that hurts people, which is generally how regulation is supposed to work. I mean, I say this having been in the

航空安全的启示与AI监管

Guest: 在美国交通部,我们的工作是监管企业。这意味着我们有像美国联邦航空管理局(FAA)这样的机构。要知道,它并不制造飞机,也不发明航空技术。它所做的是制定一套非常详尽的规则,以确保航空安全。这样做的结果实际上是一项令人难以置信的、默默无闻的文明成就。仅仅在我担任交通部长期间,就有40亿人次乘坐飞机出行。40亿人次乘坐商业航班,而死亡人数为零。40亿人中无一人死亡。

Original English

Guest: the Department of Transportation where our job was to regulate companies. So, what that meant was we have something like the FAA, right? The Federal Aviation Administration. You know, it doesn't create aircraft. It doesn't invent aviation technology. What it does is it sets a very elaborate set of rules to make sure that aviation is safe. And the consequence of that is actually an incredible unsung civilizational achievement. Just in the time I was Secretary of Transportation, we had 4 billion people get on an airplane. 4 billion passenger implants on commercial airplanes. The number of fatalities was zero. Zero out of four billion.

Stephen: 太疯狂了。

Original English

Stephen: Crazy.

Guest: 在生活中,你很少有什么事情——我是说哪怕是过马路或者吃个芝士汉堡——能有四十亿分之零的致死率。所以这是一项惊人的成就,它的实现是因为有了合适的框架、技术和规则,在保证安全的同时你依然能有很多创新。大家都知道航空航天领域是非常具有创新性的,但同时也必须确保其安全性。当我们讨论“该如何确保这些人工智能技术的开发,以便我们能拥有更安全的交通工具,或者在癌症的放射扫描筛查等方面取得更好的效果”,乃至像治愈癌症、实现核聚变这些亟待解决的伟大构想时,这一点非常值得思考。我们需要在不发生类似空难的人工智能灾难的前提下实现这些目标。

Original English

Guest: There are very few things you can do in life. I mean, all the way down to like crossing the street or eating a cheeseburger that would have a zero to four billion fatality rate. So that's an amazing achievement that happened because there is the right framework with technology and rules where you have a lot of innovation. I mean the aerospace sector is known to be very innovative but also you make sure it's safe and it's worth considering that when we're saying okay how do we make sure that these AI technologies developed so that we can have safer vehicles or you can get a better screening of a radiology scan for cancer or any of these other things all the way down to like you know these amazing ideas about curing cancer figuring out nuclear fusion which are urgently important things to do without having the kind of AI equivalent of a plane crash.

赞助商插播广告

Stephen: 我有60秒的时间,接下来我将向你们展示,多亏了我们的赞助商 Whisper Flow,我能完成多少工作。对于那些不知道它是什么的人来说,这是我投资的一家企业,它可以将你的语音在任何应用程序或设备上转化为文字。我现在要在我们的 Slack 频道里发条消息,奖励本周进行实验最多的团队成员。“大家好,这是本周的‘每周实验之星’。恭喜 Dire of Sio 预告片团队,成员有 Aunt、Liv、Dom 和 Cam。你们赢了。” 好的,现在我要打开 Gmail。这里有一位创始人在一封邮件链中,我想让我的团队与他取得联系。我只需要说“添加我团队的电子邮件”,Whisper 就会完全照做。现在,给每周为我安排日程的 Juan 发个简短的信息。“嘿,Juan,我能在周三下午2点录音吗?其实,算了吧。你知道吗,我们定在周三下午3点录音吧。” Whisper Flow 比打字快四倍,而且使用起来极其简单。所以,如果你想尝试一下,你只需前往 whisperflow.ai/stephven 今天就去下载吧。

我还想对现在正在收听和收看的企业主们说几句。我知道亲自为每一个决定负责是什么感觉。我在21岁时创立了我的第一家公司,老实说,那种压力是巨大的。这是一种在表面之下不断消耗你的心理负担。最近我通过我们的赞助商 Function 进行了一些测试,这让我开始思考那种无形的影响。我发现我体内的欧米伽-3水平偏低。我的维生素D水平不足,可能是因为我整天都坐在这样一个黑漆漆的房间里。这彻底改变了我今后安排每一天的方式。我现在早上起床后的第一件事,就是去外面的阳光下散步。部分原因是为了帮助提高我的维生素D水平,但也因为它有助于重置我的昼夜节律。通过 Function,你可以检查你的大脑健康状况、衰老程度、压力指标等等。他们提供超过160项实验室测试,每天的费用相当于只需一美元,而且会员还可以享受高级成像检查的优惠价格。请访问 functionhealth.com/dac 加入,并使用优惠码 doac 获取25美元的积分。

Original English

Stephen: I've got 60 seconds and I'm going to show you how much I can get done because of our sponsor called Whisper Flow. And for those of you that don't know what it is, it's a business I invested in that turns your speech into text in any app or device. I'm going to post into our Slack channel which rewards whichever team member conducted the most experiments this week. "Hi everyone, here is this week's experimenter of the week. Congratulations to the Dire of Sio trailer team, which is Aunt, Liv, Dom, and Cam. You guys have won." Okay, now I'm going to open Gmail. So, here is one of our founders on an email chain that I want to connect my team with. All I have to say is add my team's emails, and Whisper will do exactly that. Now, a quick message to Juan, who does my schedule every single week. "Hey, Juan, can I record on Wednesday at 2 p.m.? Actually, no. Do you know what? Let's record at 3 p.m. on Wednesday." Whisper Flow is four times faster than typing and it is incredibly easy to use. So, if you want to give it a go, all you have to do is head to whisperflow.ai/stephven to download it today.

I want to speak to the business owners listening and watching right now. I know what it's like to be personally responsible for every decision. I founded my first company at 21 years old and honestly, the pressure can be immense. It's the kind of mental load that takes its toll below the surface. I recently did some tests through our sponsor function, which got me thinking about that invisible impact. I found that I had low levels of omega-3s. I had deficient levels of vitamin D, probably because I sit inside this dark room all day. And that has totally changed how I construct my day going forward. I get up in the morning and the first thing I now do is I go for a walk outside in the sunshine. In part to help my vitamin D levels increase, but also because it helps to reset my circadian rhythm. With function, you can check your brain health, your aging, your stress, and so much more. They provide over 160 lab tests for what is equal to a dollar a day and member pricing on advanced imaging. Head to functionhealth.com/dac to join and use code doac for a $25 credit.

关于不平等与财富税的辩论

Stephen: 还有一场更广泛的辩论,我想在某些方面也与此相关。目前在美国,实际上在整个西方世界,甚至在英国也正在进行,围绕资本主义、社会主义展开。而且我认为很大程度上是由人们正在经历的不平等所驱动的。如果我没记错的话,美国的贫富分化更为极端。美国有更高的增长率,更高的GDP增长,但与英国这样的国家相比,它的不平等现象更为严重。因此,社会主义通常被认为是解决这种不平等的方法。Menani 现在是纽约的市长,而且我们看到在英国,社会主义政党越来越受欢迎。向富人征税的想法变得非常普遍。这周英国一个很大的争议就是,我们是否应该对财富超过1000万的人征收财富税。我很想听听你对这件事的看法。社会主义、财富税是解决这些不平等问题的正确方案吗?

Original English

Stephen: There's also just a broader debate which I guess in some ways connected to this at the moment in America, but actually also across the western world, that's happening in the UK as well around capitalism, socialism and I think a lot of it's driven by the inequality that people are experiencing. And if my memory is true, the US has more extreme inequality. It has more growth, GDP growth, but it has more extreme inequality than a country like the United Kingdom. So socialism is often considered to be the solution to this inequality. Menani is now the mayor of New York and we're seeing in the UK socialist parties are becoming more and more popular. The idea of taxing the rich is becoming very popular. Big debate actually this week in the UK is should we implement a wealth tax on people who have wealth above 10 million. Keen to get your perspective on this. Yeah. Is socialism, is wealth taxes the right solution to some of these problems of inequality?

Guest: 嗯,我发现“社会主义”这个词随着人们使用得越来越多,它所包含的实际意义却越来越少。它被当成一个标签随意抛出,对不同的人来说意味着不同的东西。我将用你举的例子来说明这一点。你知道,对非常富有的人征收更高的税是一个普遍受欢迎的想法。我认为这是正确的事情。更重要的是,在美国我们早就有了这样做的传统。其中最高的一些税率——曾经有一段时间,全国最高收入阶层的所得税率在90%左右。在美国,我并不是说我们需要回到那个水平。我只是说,那发生在上世纪四五十年代和六十年代,当时正处于冷战时期,美国代表着资本主义对抗共产主义,或者有些人会把社会主义也归为那一类。对吧?所以美国有着这样一个传统,它是一个完全资本主义的国家,同时也更好地避免了这种极端的不平等。而解决不平等的目的并不是为了惩罚富人,而是为了确保那种财富水平不会失控,不会演变成可能摧毁整个体系的政治权力。顺便说一句,我认为这正是我们现在面临的问题。首先,我们的税收制度对财富的征税低于对劳动的征税。这是个问题。随着人工智能来取代工作岗位,这变成了一个更大的问题。因为现在天平本质上是倾斜的,相当于美国政府给了一种补贴,说因为资本利得税低于个人所得税,所以你比原本有更多理由去用自动化取代一个工作岗位。现在,财富税(其实就是换了个名字的财产税)可以作为你获取足够收入、确保结果公平的税收菜单的一部分。你可以争论这条线应该画在哪里。我认为有些人的提案把它定得太高了。你也可以争论是否必须实行财富税,还是说可以通过资本利得税、所得税和其他税收来实现这个目标。但我们现在知道的是,我们的系统已经非常失衡,如果你是一个身价数十亿的亿万富翁,你所缴纳的税款占你收入的百分比,很可能低于一个学校老师或一个消防员。甚至从百分比来看,我们通常对亿万富翁的征税都低于对百万富翁的征税。同样,这也是因为这个系统某种程度上偏袒财富。所以你拥有的越多,你赚的越多,你被征的税就越少。毫无疑问,我们可以做得更好。

Original English

Guest: Well, I find socialism is a word that means less and less the more people use it. It gets thrown around as a label and it means different things to different people. And I'll take your example to illustrate this. You know, higher taxes for very wealthy people is an idea that is broadly popular. I think it's the right thing to do. And importantly, we have a tradition of doing that already in the United States. Some of the highest tax, there was a point where the income tax for the wealthiest tax bracket in the country was around 90%. In the United States, I'm not saying we need to go back to that. I'm just saying and that was happening in the 40s and 50s and 60s when the cold war was going on and the US represented capitalism against communism or some would put socialism would lump it in with that. Right? So there is a tradition of the US being a fully capitalist country and also doing a better job of heading off this inequality. And the point of dealing with the inequality wasn't to punish the wealthy. It was to make sure that that level of wealth didn't go off the rails and that it didn't turn into a level of political power that could bring down the whole system. Which by the way is the problem I think we're facing now. First of all, our tax system taxes wealth less than it taxes work. That's a problem. That's an even bigger problem now that AI is coming for jobs because there's basically a thumb on the scale, a subsidy in effect from the US government saying giving you a little more reason to automate a job than you otherwise would because things like capital gains taxes come in lower than things like income taxes. Now, wealth tax, which is a property tax by another name, can be part of the menu of taxes you have to get enough revenue and to make sure that outcomes are fair. You can argue about where to draw the line. I think some people have proposals that set it too high. You can also argue about whether you have to have a wealth tax or whether you can get the job done with capital gains and income and other tax. But what we know right now is that our system is so out of whack that if you are a multi-billionaire, you probably pay a lower percentage of what you make in taxes than if you're a school teacher or a firefighter. We even in percentage terms generally tax billionaires less than we tax millionaires because again of this system that kind of favors wealth. So the more you have, the more you make and the less it's taxed. Surely we can do better than that.

Stephen: 那么,你支持财富税吗?我给它的定义是——不是对收入征税,而是看一个人的净资产,并从中提取一定比例作为税收。

Original English

Stephen: So, are you supportive of wealth taxes? And I'm defining that as not taxing income, but looking at the net worth of somebody and taking a percentage of their net worth.

Guest: 是的。再强调一次,对我来说,那只是财产税概念的一种变体。我认为它是合理的。但在实施过程中会存在一些问题。在实际操作层面,这可能会很困难。

Original English

Guest: Yeah. Again, to me, that's just a variation on the idea of a property tax. I think it's legitimate. There are some problems with doing it. In practical terms, it can be hard.

Stephen: 这正是它困难的原因所在,对吧?

Original English

Stephen: This is why it's hard, right?

Guest: 或者比如说,你要怎么对某人的艺术收藏品征税?有些事情确实会让其变得棘手。

Original English

Guest: Or like how do you tax like somebody's art collection or there are things that can make it tricky.

Stephen: 有件事是我在……我创办这家公司时学到的,它是一家上市公司,所以我持有公众股票。有个人过来对我说:“Stephen,你知道吗,用你持有的公众股票——所以我在21岁创办这家公司,发展得很好,到了27岁,我持有的股票已经是公众股票了,也就是说它在股票市场上交易。有人在我27岁的时候过来对我说,‘Stephen,你知道你其实可以直接用你的公众股票去抵押贷款吗,然后我……’”

Original English

Stephen: One of the things that I learned when I had this company and it was a public company so I had public stock and someone came along and said Stephen you know with your public stock that you have so started this company when I was 21 does well by 27 the stock that I have is public stock which means it's on a stock market someone came to me at 27 and said Stephen do you know you can just take a loan against your public stock and I

避税漏洞与国家债务危机

Pete Buttigieg: ……结果就是你可以直接获得一笔免税贷款,所以如果你的股票现在价值五千万美元……

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: went you can just get a tax-free loan so if your stock is worth $50 million right now

Interviewer: 是的,他们会给你一笔50%的贷款,而你不需要为那只股票交税。所以他们会提供极低的利率,对吧?简直就像没有利息一样。他们今天就会直接转给你两千五百万美元的现金,而你根本不需要交任何税。而且你猜怎么着?如果股票跌了,他们就会直接把它卖掉。所以你永远都不会真正有类似真正的纳税义务。

Original English

Interviewer: Yeah, they will give you a 50% loan without paying tax on that stock. So they will crazy low interest rate, right? Like almost nothing. They will just transfer you today $25 million in cash and you will have to pay no tax. And guess what? If the stock comes down, they'll just sell it. So you'll never really have like a real sort of tax liability there.

Pete Buttigieg: 嗯。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: Mhm.

Interviewer: 我真不敢相信这是可能的。所以我当时就想,这就是所有有钱人的做法吗?

Original English

Interviewer: I couldn't believe this was possible. And so I was like, is this what all the rich people do?

Pete Buttigieg: 他们告诉我,是的,这就是它的运作方式。这就是马斯克(Elon)正在做的事情。马斯克正在用他的特斯拉股票抵押,获得一笔几乎可以说是免税的贷款,然后他们转给他十亿美元的现金,他就可以靠这笔钱生活,用这笔钱创办新公司,而且永远都不需要进行任何需要纳税的交易。所以我就想,为什么政客们不对这个征税呢?当然,这始终会是一场猫鼠游戏,对吧?每当我们想出一个办法来确保你不能把所有的财富或者所有的收入都隐藏起来以逃避公平征税时,非常富有的人总会想出其他地方把它藏起来。是的。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: And they told me, yes, this is what how it works. This is what Elon's doing. Elon is taking a taxree pretty much taxfree loan against his Tesla stock and they are transferring him a billion dollars in cash and he can live off that start new companies with that and never have to have a tax transaction. So I thought why don't politicians tax that there's always going to be a cat and mouse right whenever we figure out a way to make sure you can't hide all of your wealth from or all of your income from being fairly taxed. Very wealthy people will figure out some other place to hide it. Yeah.

Pete Buttigieg: 然后我们就得制定一项新政策来应对这个问题。我想我的观点是,这没关系。很多时候,我们只是在犹豫要不要采取任何行动,拒绝采取任何行动,因为这可能会很困难,或者因为它可能不会持久。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: And then we'll have to develop a new policy to deal with that. I guess my point is that's okay. Too often we have just hesitated to do anything, refused to do anything because it might be hard or because it might not last.

Interviewer: 但是,如果认为有人会找出规避这项法律的办法,就意味着你不应该制定这项法律,那这将成为反对制定任何法律的理由。

Original English

Interviewer: But if if the idea that somebody will figure out a way around this law meant that you shouldn't have the law, that would be an argument against having any law.

Pete Buttigieg: 嗯。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: Mhm.

Pete Buttigieg: 所以这很棘手。这很困难。但我确信,如果我们在资本利得和企业收入方面有一个更合理的税率,如果我们让财富更难在不缴纳任何税款的情况下转移下去——特别是继承的财富,或者你说的这种借贷行为等其他操作。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: So it's messy. It's hard. But I am sure that if we had a more reasonable rate of taxation on capital gains and on corporate income, and if we made it harder to pass along wealth without uh especially inherited wealth without paying any taxes on it or some of these other maneuvers like this borrowing thing you're talking about.

Pete Buttigieg: 我们会拥有一个更公平的国家,因为我们仍然会有资本主义。仍然会有很多的动力和理由去创新、去建立企业、去创造就业机会,去做那些非常富有的人所做的一切。而且,我们也将走出目前的这个厄运循环。在这个循环中,他们会说:“嗯,我们不可能拥有和其他国家一样好的医疗保健。我们不可能做一些,我不知道,比如在美国这里建高铁。我们不可能让农村医院得到适当的资助,或者公共教育得到保障。”当然,我们可以。这是世界上最富有的经济体。说我们不能拥有美好的事物,这根本说不通。但是,如果我们没有征收一个合理水平的税收,那么当然我们在试图为这些事情提供资金时就会捉襟见肘。而我们在数量上目前面临的所有事情中,最严重的一件就是这笔庞大的债务。现在,在左派中谈论赤字和债务并不流行,部分原因是,你知道,我认为民主党人非常厌倦人们以此为由拒绝做我们所信仰的事情,比如修路、建桥、建学校和医院。但它现在已经升级到了一个谁都无法忽视的水平。事实证明,你知道,一些分析表明或者显示,如果你把时钟拨回到本世纪初,从当时大规模的布什减税政策开始算起,我想是2001年,然后你再经历特朗普针对最富有人群的减税政策,你把所有这些加起来,如果不是因为所有这些减税政策,现在的债务实际上应该是下降的。所以,他们完全可以解释债务增长的原因。而我们只是不需要、不必接受这一点。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: We would have a fairer country because we'd still have capitalism. There'd still be lots of motivation and lots of reason to innovate and build a business and create jobs and do all the things that very wealthy people uh have done. And also we would be out of this doom loop we're in where they're saying, "Well, we can't possibly have as good health care as other countries. We couldn't possibly do something like, I don't know, fast trains here in the United States. We couldn't possibly have uh rural hospitals be properly funded or uh public education. Of course, we can. This is the wealthiest economy in the world. It just doesn't add up that we can't have nice things. But if we aren't collecting a fair level of taxes, then then of course we're going to come up short when we're trying to fund those things. And the biggest thing of all uh that numerically that we're facing right now is this massive debt. Now, it's not fashionable on the left to talk about deficits and the debt partly because, you know, I think Democrats are pretty sick of that being invoked as a reason not to do things like roads and bridges and schools and hospitals that we believe in. But it's now escalated to a level that no one can ignore it. It turns out, you know, some analysis has suggested or shown that if you just start the clock at the beginning of this century with the big Bush tax cuts in, I think 2001 and then you go through the Trump tax cuts for the wealthiest, you add all that up, if it weren't for all those tax cuts, the debt would actually be going down right now. So, they can fully account for what's happened to the increase in the debt. And we just don't don't have to accept that.

Interviewer: 我这里有一张美国国家债务增长的图表。我会把它投射到屏幕上。从1970年到2026年,它看起来就像一枚正在升空的火箭。

Original English

Interviewer: got this uh graph here of US national debt growth. I'll throw that up on the screen. Between 1970 and 2026, it looks like a rocket is taking off.

Pete Buttigieg: 是的。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: Yep.

Interviewer: 几天前我才和达利欧(Ray Dalio)坐在这里。他谈到了类似经济大繁荣和衰退的周期。他谈到大约每隔80年,你就会看到一个大国步履蹒跚、陷入挣扎。而我们进入美国强权时代已经80年了。他说,关于接下来会发生什么,结局已经注定。当你让债务像这样增长,并且你开始出现某种内部冲突,而且你开始试图取悦全世界,然后……

Original English

Interviewer: And I sat here with Ray Dalio just a couple of days ago. He talks about the sort of big economic boom in bus cycles. He talks about how every 80 years or so you kind of see a great power falter and struggle. And we are 80 years into the American power. And he says that the writing is on the wall as it relates to what happens next. when you let debt go like this and you start getting sort of internal conflict and you start trying to please the world and

Pete Buttigieg: 是的,债务正在发生的事情既是其证据,也是问题的一部分。我认为这是一种症状,但在某些方面它也是一种原因。它可能是引发货币危机的原因,或者迫使我们在未来几年内重塑我们整个的税法。我最近了解到一个事情,有一个被称为“斯坦恩定律”(Stein's law)的原则。它是以一位里根时代的经济学家命名的,实际上他就是你在《春天不是读书天》(Ferris Bueller)里记得的本·斯坦恩(Ben Stein)的父亲。这个原则非常简单。如果某件事不能永远持续下去,它就会停止。在当前大家都同意债务不能像这样继续增长的时刻,这是我们思考得不够的那些显而易见的事情之一。这几乎肯定从定义上来说是不可能的。几乎每个人都同意我们的政治不能这样继续下去了。如果某件事不能永远持续下去,它就不会。所以问题是,好吧,那么接下来会发生什么?我相信两件事情中的一件会发生。改革或者灾难。我参与公共生活的全部原因,就是为了努力确保那是改革,而不是灾难。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: yeah and what's going on with the debt is both evidence of it and part of the problem. I think it's a symptom but in some ways it's a cause. It could be a cause of a currency crisis or force us to uh redo our whole tax code within the next few years. One thing I learned about recently uh there's a principle called Stein's law. It's named after a Reagan era economist, actually the father of Ben Stein from if you remember Ferris Beller. The principle is very simple. If something cannot go on forever, it will stop. It's one of these blindingly obvious things that we don't think about enough at a moment like this where everybody agrees the debt can't keep going up like this. It's just almost definitely definitionally impossible. Pretty much everyone agrees our politics can't go on like this. And if something can't go on forever, it won't. So the question is, okay, then what's going to happen? I believe one of two things can happen. Reform or catastrophe. And the whole reason I'm involved in public life is to try to make make sure that it's reform and not catastrophe.

政治动机与长期责任

Interviewer: 我能问一个关于这个的问题吗?所以关于这个斯坦恩定律的问题,以及为什么抛开你刚才说的非常有道理的话不谈,国家债务这条线还在一直往上涨,这在某种程度上是不是有点像政客们的“音乐椅”游戏?你在任4年,音乐在播放,你大概希望在你的任期内音乐不要停,因为你想花钱,因为这在政治上是积极的。如果你在改善人们的医疗保健,如果你在建设基础设施,这是积极的,人们会更喜欢你。他们会把票投给你。但政治的本质意味着你真的只考虑四年的规划,然后也许你再考虑八年,对吧?

Original English

Interviewer: Can I ask a question on this? So on this Steinlaw thing and and why irrespective of what you've just said, which makes perfect sense to me, this line keeps going up of national debt, is it in part kind of like musical chess with politicians where you come in for 4 years and the music is playing and you're kind of hoping that the music doesn't stop during your term because you want to spend money because that's politically positive. If you're helping people's healthare, if you're building infrastructure, positive, people are going to like you more. They're going to vote you in. But the nature of politics means that you really do play for four years and then maybe you play for eight, right?

Interviewer: 但这可能是一场持续二十年的灾难。音乐可能会在二十年后停止。所以实际上当你思考人们的激励结构时,你受到激励去实际上不思考未来。

Original English

Interviewer: But this might be a two decade catastrophe. The music might stop in two decades. So actually when you think about people's incentive structures, you're incentivized to actually not think about the future.

Interviewer: 你受到的激励是让人记住,然后以一种积极的方式,在四年后把接力棒传给下一个民主党人。所以这就是为什么我们会看到这种情况,因为很显然,如果一个人执政一百年,或者如果时间跨度甚至更长,也许他们就会考虑这个债务急剧增加的问题。

Original English

Interviewer: You're incentivized to like be remembered and pass the bat to the next Democrat in four years time in a way that's positive. So that's why we're seeing this cuz clearly if someone was in power for a hundred years or maybe if the time horizon was even longer maybe they would have thought about this debt rapidly increasing.

Pete Buttigieg: 是的。但我认为这也归结于类似这样的问题:如果你在任职,你认为你为什么在这里?就像你任职只是为了保住这个职位吗?

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: Yeah. But I think it also comes down to like why why do you think you're here if you're in office? Like are you in office just in order to hold it?

Interviewer: 有时候看起来确实是这样。

Original English

Interviewer: It seems like that sometimes

Pete Buttigieg: 如果仅仅处于能够有所作为并担任公职的位置,那是不值得的。这像是一件令人兴奋的事情。这是一件引人注目的事情。这是一件有意义的事情,而且它伴随着很多你知道对你的自我满足感有好处的东西。我懂所有这些。但是,这也只是不值得的,除非你明白你担任一个职务是为了利用政策和权力做一些让人们过得更好的事情,而不是反过来。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: it's not worth it being in a position to make a difference and hold public office. Like it's an exciting thing. It's a compelling thing. It's a meaningful thing and it comes with with a lot of things that are you know good for your ego. I get all of that. But also, it's just not worth it unless you understand that you hold an office in order to do things with policy and power to make people better off, not the other way around.

Interviewer: 我想美国人民和现在正在收听的每个人都会想:“骗我一次,皮特·布蒂吉格部长。”(Fool me once, Secretary Pete Buttigieg.)因为我坐在那里,我看着这些选举,他们所有人都在谈论降低公共债务,然后你……我看着这张图表,我说:“哦,它又涨了。”特朗普也是这样谈论支出的,但是没有,它又涨了。

Original English

Interviewer: I guess the American people and everybody listening now will be thinking, "Fool me once, Secretary Pete Buddha Judge." Because I've sat there and I've watched the elections and all of them talk about bringing down the public debt and and then you I look at this graph and I go, "Oh, it goes up again." And Trump says the same about spending and nope, it's gone up again.

Pete Buttigieg: 在某种程度上,这几乎让人觉得……

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: It almost feels like in a way that

Interviewer: 感觉你是在努力保持客气。

Original English

Interviewer: feel like you're trying to be nice.

Pete Buttigieg: 不,不,不。我只是……我不知道。我能理解为什么人们会对政治有点失去信心。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: No, no, no. I just I don't know. I can understand why people are sort of disenfranchised with politics.

Interviewer: 是的,我也是。

Original English

Interviewer: Yeah, me too.

Interviewer: 我在想,这是不是为什么他们会选择那些激进的人,你知道,这就是为什么……

Original English

Interviewer: And I wonder if this is why they're picking the radical, you know, this is why

Pete Buttigieg: 所以,[清嗓子]这就是为什么……

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: So [clears throat] this is why

Interviewer: 噢天哪。[笑声]

Original English

Interviewer: Oh god. [laughter]

Pete Buttigieg: 因为这就是颠覆。在某种程度上,这是一种推翻重来的做法。对。所以,这就是为什么我走到哪里,都在试图和我自己的政党交谈,关于要确保我们明白,处理这个问题并不是全部和终极目的。我们的使命不能只是为了夺取权力,然后再回到我们以前的样子。因为我们以前的样子,实际上正是导致了目前的局面。

Original English

Pete Buttigieg: Because this is disruption. This is kind of burn it down to some degree. Right. So, this is why everywhere I go, I'm trying to talk to my own party about making sure that we understand that dealing with this is not the beall and endall. That our mission can't be to just take power and then go back to what we had before. That what we had before is actually what led

改变系统与公众诉求

Speaker A: 换言之,像特朗普这样的人走不了多远,除非你已经身处一个政治、社会和经济系统都在让人们失望的环境中,我认为这就是我们落到今天这步田地的原因。我很担心有一个巨大的诱惑,在我们党内会有一个巨大的诱惑去说:“好吧,我们的任务就是夺回权力,时光倒流,扭转破坏,修复破碎的东西,让我们回到过去。让我们重回正轨。”我经常听到“回”这个词。我经常听到“重”这个前缀。逆转、重建。我非常担心那会分散我们对实际使命的注意力,我们的实际使命必须是改变和修复事物,以便我们为未来的80年做好准备。所以那确实是一个更艰难的项目。但同时,有时候激励机制会改变,因为公众已经准备好迎接一些不同的东西了。而且我认为公众尝试了特朗普主义这种不同口味的东西后,已经准备把它吐出来了。所以接下来的问题是,好吧,我们将提供什么来取代它?对我来说,这就是一些非常日常的事情,比如建立一个更好的医疗保健系统……

Original English

Speaker A: to this. In other words, guys like Trump don't get very far unless you're already in an environment where the political and social and economic systems are letting people down, which is I think how we wound up here. And I worry there's a big temptation, there will be a big temptation in my party to say, "Okay, our job is to take power, turn back the clock, reverse the damage, fix what was broken, and get us back to where we were. Get us back on track." I hear the word back a lot. I hear the prefix re a lot. Reverse, rebuild. And I'm very worried about that distracting from what our actual mission has to be, which is to change and fix things so that we'll be set up well for the next 80 years. So that that's a harder project for sure. But also sometimes the incentives change because the public is ready for something different. And I think the public tried one flavor of something different with Trumpism and is ready to spit it out. And so the question then is, okay, what are we offering in its place? And to me, that's where some very day-to-day things like setting up a better healthare system

Speaker A: ……或者减少我们在关税上的支出,或者更好的基础设施,或者任何其他政策,你知道,带薪休假。所有这些我希望能实现的政策,实际上都取决于修复一个不那么性感的政治系统。但这可以产生强大的动力,因为我们的国家是由一群为了改变政治系统而进行革命的人建立的。我实在无法想象那是像杰斐逊和汉密尔顿这样的人,坐在书房里读着约翰·洛克和卢梭,然后想着:“哦,如果在某个地方尝试一下那个会很有趣。”我认为他们相信,如果我们真的有一个不同的系统,他们的生活和每个人的生活都会更好、不一样。然后,他们冒着暴死的危险,去挑战当时存在的政治系统——君主制,并用他们建立的共和国、民主国家来取代它,那就是美利坚合众国。对吧?所以,这不是不能激起热情的事情。难道我们不应该是一个每个人的选票都同等重要的国家吗?那意味着总统的普选。我们应该那样做。我只是认为每个人的选票都应该同等重要,获得最多选票的人应该获胜。在我们政治体系中进行的几乎任何其他选举中,这不是一件很难让我们接受的事情。我们还需要做一些事情,比如禁止在划分选区时进行不公正的划分。所以考虑一下这个:我们在众议院有435个席位。在这样一个势均力敌的国家里,十分之九的席位要么是深红,要么是深蓝,以至于在投下第一张选票之前,你基本上就知道谁会赢。这毫无道理。当然,这导致的结果是,那些席位上的人要么非常安逸,并不真正担心如何回应民众;要么如果他们处于危险之中,这种危险也是来自他们自己阵营内部。令我惊讶的是,当我看到美国人对某些大问题的看法时,比如确保每个人都有医疗保健,或者提高最低工资,或者对富人和企业征收更高的税,或者对枪支进行背景调查,或者同性伴侣的婚姻平等,各种各样的事情。对于大多数人告诉民意调查员他们最关心的多数问题,都有 60% 或 70% 的赞同率。那么,我们怎么会成为这样一个在无数问题上有着 60% 或 70% 的共识,却未能让这些政策落地,并且还继续表现得好像成为一个人们互相掐脖子的 50/50 势均力敌的国家是很正常的一样。对我来说,这就是系统崩溃的证据。如果我们不修复这个系统,我不认为我们能走多远。

Original English

Speaker A: or reducing what we're paying in tariffs or better infrastructure or any any of the other policy, you know, paid family leave. All these policy things that I'd like to see happen really depend on fixing a political system that's just not as sexy. But it can be powerfully motivating because our country was started by people who fought a revolution to change the political system. And I just can't imagine that it was just like Jefferson and Hamilton, these guys sitting in their studies reading, you know, John Lock and Russo and thinking, "Oh, it would be neat to try that somewhere." I I think they believe that like their lives and everybody's lives be better, different if we actually had a different system. And then they risked violent death in order to challenge the existing political system that was the monarchy and replace it with the republic, the democratic country that they set up. that is the United States of America. Right? So, it's not like this can't stir passion. Should we not be a country where everybody's vote counts the same? That would mean a popular vote for the presidents. We ought to do that. I just think everybody's vote ought to count the same and the person who gets the most votes ought to win. This is not a hard thing for us to buy into in literally any other election we run in our political system. We need to do things like make it just ban gerrymandering where districts are being drawn. So consider this. We have 435 seats in the House. Nine out of 10 are so red or so blue that you basically know who's going to win before the first vote is cast. Nine out of 10 in a 50-50 country. That makes no sense. And of course what it leads to is the people in those seats are either very comfortable and not really worried about being responsive to the people or if they are in danger, they're in danger from their own side. What's amazing to me when I look at how Americans feel about certain big issues like making sure there's health care for everybody or raising the minimum wage or having higher rates of taxes on the wealthy and on corporations or background checks on guns or marriage equality for same-sex couples, all kinds of things. There's like 60 or 70% agreement on most of the issues that most people tell pollsters they care about the most. So, how can we be a country that's got 60 or 70% agreement on issue after issue after issue and we fail to get those policies done and we keep proceeding like it's normal to be a 50/50 country where everybody's at each other's throats. That to me is evidence of a broken system. If we don't fix the system, I don't think we're going to get very far.

政治人物的真实性与科技影响

Speaker B: 这很有趣,因为当我回想过去20年左右的政治时,你知道,我们经历了布什时代,然后我们有了民主党人等等,他们都非常圆滑老练。布什也有点非常圆滑。然后我们有了拜登,他非常圆滑,就像职业政客,说着正确的话,照着提词器念。然后似乎在全球范围内,人们都想要一些颠覆。在英国那边我们经历了英国脱欧。奈杰尔·法拉奇(Nigel Farage)在过去10年左右的时间里,在政治可能性方面越来越受欢迎。然后在美国,我们迎来了特朗普。同样,他不是一个职业政客,不是那种干干净净、照本宣科的人。如果民主党想要赢,正如你所说,肯定不能退回到拜登那种圆滑的提词器风格。我甚至认为在政治的左翼可能需要出现一些颠覆性的人物,才能赢回那些无党派人士,甚至一些共和党人。你大体上同意这个观点吗?

Original English

Speaker B: It's interesting because when I think about the last sort of 20 years of politics, we had, you know, the Bush era, then we had Democrats and and so on that were very polished. Bush was kind of very polished as well. Then we had Biden who was um very polished, kind of like career politicians, says the right things, reads off the teleprompter. And then it seems globally like people wanted some disruption. We had Brexit going on over there. We've got Nigel Farage increasing in popularity over the last 10 years or so as it relates to his political probabilities. And then over in the United States, we have Trump arrive. Again, not a career politician, not clean, not teleprompter kind of guy. If Democrats are to win, as you say, it's certainly not going to go back to the polished Joe Biden teleprompter. I almost think that there's going to need to be some disruptive character on the left side of politics to get to win over those independents, but also some of those Republicans. Is that Do you agree with that broadly?

Speaker A: 我觉得那是对的。我的意思是,我认为这取决于我们所说的“圆滑”是指什么,对吧?那可以意味着很多不同的东西。我认为,你谈论的是人们所期待的一种真实性。而特朗普的矛盾之处在于,即使他在撒谎,他也显得很真实,因为看起来好像他,你知道的,无论他是什么样,他都没有在念谈话要点。至少看起来是这样。我认为这其中一部分也是技术因素。在我的有生之年,主导政治的技术一直是电视。我认为它造就了一代人,你知道,乔治·W·布什、比尔·克林顿和唐纳德·特朗普,他们都是在彼此相差几周内出生的。

Original English

Speaker A: I think that's right. I mean, I think it depends what we mean by polished, right? That can mean a lot of different things. I I think uh but I think you're talking about a sort of authenticity that people expect. And the paradox of Trump is he's authentic even when he's lying cuz it just seems like he's, you know, whatever he is, he's not reading talking points. At least that's how it seems. I think also part of this is just the it's actually a technology thing. So the technology that dominated politics for as long as I've been alive was television. And I think it produced a generation of people, you know, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and Donald Trump were all born within a few weeks of each other.

Speaker B: 真的吗?

Original English

Speaker B: Really?

Speaker A: 是的。他们都是,我记得是1946年夏天的产物,那一代人,乔·拜登的年龄也和他们相近,对吧,然后进入了下一个时代。我认为你会看到一些领导人——这可能会成为一件非常好的事情——他们只是一点点更好地能够在像这样长篇的播客中展现他们的人性,对吧?我记得以前所谓长篇访谈大概也就是一个30分钟的NPR采访。现在你有时要坐上两三个小时。我认为,就体力而言,要在两三个小时里一直坚持谈话要点是不可能的,所以,你知道,曾经有人说过,竞选公职就像是对灵魂进行一次核磁共振成像,反正这是真的,但现在比过去更加真实,因为你只是有很多不同的方式必须展现出你是谁。我们曾经想象,掌权的人就像是处于下一个层次,存在于一个不同的层面上,我认为现在越来越难相信这一点,我们知道得太多了。对吧。所以我认为我们将之转变为只是希望找到那些我们有理由信任的人。

Original English

Speaker A: Yeah. They were they were all products of the summer of I think it was 1946 coming out of that generation, Joe Biden near to them in age, right, into whatever is next. I think you're going to have leaders, and I this can be potentially a very good thing, who are just a little bit better able to just kind of show their humanity being a long podcast like this one, right? Like I I remember when long form meant like maybe a 30 minute NPR interview. Now you're sitting for sometimes two or three hours. I don't think it's possible as a matter of physical stamina to stay on talking points for two or three hours because you wanted to like it just you know and so you know somebody once said that the running for office is like an MRI of the soul anyway but that's even more true now than it used to be because you just there's so many different kind of ways of having to kind kind of show who you are. We used to imagine that the people in charge are just like next level like on a different plane of existence and I think it's become harder and harder to believe that it just we know too much. Right. And so I think we're trading that for just wanting people that we have a reason to trust.

“玻璃盒子”时代的透明度要求

Speaker B: 我们在商业领域看到了同样的情况。在过去的10年里,我们谈论了很多关于我们是如何从一个黑盒世界——公关部门会在黑盒外部描绘公司的形象——转变为,因为手机的出现,现在每个人都有一部手机,口袋里有摄像头,还有社交媒体平台,所以他们可以发表自己的意见,变成这个玻璃盒子世界,在这里实际上的工作就是让每个人都能看到内部,因为如果你不这样做,其他人就会替你描绘这个盒子。所以事实上防守变成了现在世界上那些大牌CEO们上播客、建立个人品牌和拥有社交媒体账号。我认为政治家也是一样,现在制胜策略就是成为一个玻璃盒子,也就是通过透明度建立你自己的参考点。

Original English

Speaker B: We see the same across um across business. We talked a lot about over the last 10 years how we've shifted from this blackbox world where the PR department would pay would paint the image of the company on the outside of this black box and then we moved because of phones and everyone has a mobile phone now and a camera in their pocket and a social media platform so they can give their own opinion to this glass box world where actually the job is to let everybody see inside because if you don't someone else will paint the the box for you. So actually defense became the big CEOs in the world now coming on podcast and having a personal brand and having a social media account. I think the same for politicians that actually the winning strategy now is being a glass box which is build your own reference points through transparency.

Speaker A: 是的。

Original English

Speaker A: Yeah.

Speaker B: 这就是为什么像这样的播客我认为在某种程度上可能会主导下一个选举周期的原因。

Original English

Speaker B: Which is why the podcasts like this are I think probably going to dominate the uh next election cycle to some degree.

Speaker A: 是的。而且我认为这不仅仅适用于政治、竞选和成为候选人。我认为这越来越适用于政府。我的意思是,我在交通部开始感受到这一点。管理这个庞大的企业,5万5千人,1450亿美元的预算比大多数国家的GDP还要大。我发现,在很多情况下,那些普遍不信任政府或媒体的人会做最坏的设想。而唯一的解药就是比一个联邦机构或部门过去的运作更加透明。

Original English

Speaker A: Yeah. And I think it's true not just for politics for like running and being a candidate. I think it's increasingly true for government too. I mean I started to feel this at the Department of Transportation. running this huge enterprise, 55,000 people, $145 billion is bigger than most GDPs in most countries. And what I found was that there were so many situations where people who just are generally mistrustful of government or media would assume the worst. And the only antidote to that was to be way more transparent than a federal agency or department was

The Weight of Public Office

Guest: (我)过去常处的状态。但我发现,部门的运作机制并没有为此做好准备。它的设计初衷是,你知道的,要负责任,但这种负责任是指,如果发生了一些事情,并且国会议员对此感到担忧,他们可以写一封信,六个月后他们会得到一份报告。而我试图弄清楚的是,我该怎么做,因为,你知道,我口袋里也装着手机。比如,我该如何在有时候把它拿出来,录一段视频,然后告诉人们正在发生什么?有时候他们会认为我们根本不在乎他们,认为我们把高速公路修过他们的社区,却根本不在乎这会给他们带来多大的伤害,或者认为我们在共和党占多数的地区发生灾难时没有做出回应,仅仅因为那是共和党的地区,又或者是,如果我们不向人们展示我们实际在做什么以及为什么要这么做,他们可能会相信其他许多类似的事情。

Original English

Guest: used to being. But what I found was kind of the machinery of the department was not set up for that. It was designed to be you know, accountable, but accountable in the sense that if there's something going on and a member of Congress is worried about it, they can write a letter and six months later they'll get a report. And I'm trying to figure out how do I because, you know, I'd carry a phone in my pocket, too. Like, how do I take it out sometimes and like shoot a video and like tell people what's going on? Sometimes they're going to think that we're that we don't care about them, that we're putting a highway through their neighborhood and we don't care how it's going to hurt them or that we're not responding to a disaster in a Republican area because it's a Republican area or any other number of things that people might believe if we don't show them what we're actually doing and why.

Interviewer: 这里有一顶 2028 年的帽子。当你……当你考虑竞选总统,或者成为美国这个地球上最强大的国家的总统时,你难道没有冒名顶替综合征(自我能力否定倾向)吗?你认为这份工作有什么特点,因为,你知道,对于任何人来说,如果他们认为自己可以管理地球上最强大的国家,而不会去想“天哪,有几件事我可能做不好”,那是相当疯狂的。

Original English

Interviewer: Got this cap here 2028. when you when you think about running for president or being president of the United States, the most powerful nation on earth, do you not have imposter syndrome? And what is it about the job that you think because, you know, it's pretty crazy for anyone to think they could run the most powerful nation on earth and not think, god, there's a couple of things that I'm not going to be great at.

Guest: 是的。我的意思是,整个制度的理念就是,任何一个人都不应该拥有太多的权力,对吧?这就是我们废除君主制的原因。但我们最终拥有了这样一个总统职位,它在我们的国家中是独一无二的,不仅是在这个国家,而且是在世界上,对吧,拥有着不可思议的巨大权力。数十亿人的生活轨迹会因此而改变,可能会变得更好,也可能会变得更糟,这完全取决于那个办公室里做出的决定。而仅仅由一个人类来做这件事的想法,在某种程度上是令人不寒而栗的。但是,你知道,作为一个国家,我们所做的一部分努力是,我们围绕着这个人类设立了一大堆东西。这包括从顾问到法律,再到国会,你知道,还有法院,旨在确保有一定的制衡,努力确保无论谁坐在那个位置上,都能做出他们可能做出的最佳决定,并且必须在一定的边界内行事。但是,是的,我的意思是,你看,一直追溯到我当选市长的时候,那时我才二十多岁,很显然,我相信我能胜任这份工作,否则我也不会去竞选。但是,你知道,即使只是走进印第安纳州第四大城市的市长办公室——在县市综合大楼的 14 层——第一天雪下得很大,那是元旦,是我正式上任的第一天,我就在想,我现在有责任确保积雪被清理干净,并且,如果我们没有把这件事做好,不仅我会在政治上惹上麻烦,而且有人可能会因此受到伤害,对吧?但我认为,任何职位,任何工作,就像,你都必须让那种重量压在你的肩上,然后让它推动你在工作上表现得更出色。

Original English

Guest: Yeah. I mean, the whole idea of the system was that no one person should have too much power, right? That's why we got rid of monarchy. But we've wound up with this presidency that uniquely in our country, not just the country, the world, right, has this incredible amount of power. That the lives of billions of people go differently and could be much better or could be much worse based on decisions that get made in that office. And the idea that we would have just one human being doing that is on some level terrifying. But, you know, part of what we did as a country is we set up a whole bunch of things around that human being. And that's everything from like advisers to laws to Congress, you know, and the courts like to make sure that there's some balance to try to make sure that that whoever's in that seat can make the best decisions they possibly could and and has to act within certain boundaries. But yeah, I mean, look, all the way down to when I was elected mayor and I was in my 20s, like obviously I believed I could do the job or I wouldn't have run for it. But, you know, even just walking into the office of the mayor of the fourth largest city in Indiana on the 14th floor of the county city building and the snow's coming down the first day I it was New Year's Day, first day I was officially in office and I'm thinking, I'm now responsible for making sure the snow gets plowed and and and if we don't do it right, not only will I get in trouble politically, somebody could be harmed, right? But I think any office, any job, like you have to let that weight sit on your shoulders and then have it push you to be better at the job.

Interviewer: 那就是—— 哦,开始了。 开始了。

Original English

Interviewer: That's the Oh, there we go. There we go.

Guest: 是的。是的。那是选举日。那是一种很棒的感觉。但我,我也记得,我立刻感受到了获胜带来的这种兴奋感。如果你是一个好胜的人,这也是击败了竞争对手所带来的激动。但你必须将这种情绪与现实相平衡:“好吧,我说过如果你选我,我就能把这些事情办好,而现在我真的需要拿出成果来了。”

Original English

Guest: Yeah. Yeah. That was election day. That was a great feeling. But I I remember also immediately feeling this thrill of of having won. And if you're a competitive person, it's also the excitement of having beaten your competitors. But having to balance that with, okay, I said that if you elected me, I'd be able to get these things done, and now I actually got to produce.

Interviewer: 你会对有朝一日成为总统所带来的后果感到害怕吗?

Original English

Interviewer: Are you scared of the consequences of being president one day?

Guest: 任何一位总统都应该感到害怕。任何一个甚至只是被认真讨论或被考虑担任这个职位的人都应该如此。它将你置于这样一个位置:你有责任说出有意义的话,并且要深思熟虑你要说的内容。你要知道,你的言语,即使你没有官方权力,但你所做或所说的事情仍然可能会帮助或伤害到人们,仅仅是通过说话,仅仅是通过参加一个有数百万人收听的播客节目。

Original English

Guest: Any president should be. Anybody who's even being seriously talked about or considered for it should be. Puts you in a position where you have a responsibility to say things that make sense and think about what you have to say. know that your words, even if you have no official power, but that still things that you do or say could help or hurt people just by just by talking, just by going on a podcast that millions of people listen to.

Assessing the 2028 Democratic Field

Interviewer: 根据我看到的数据,现在确实有四位领跑者,嗯,也就是你自己、加文·纽森、AOC(亚历山大·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯),还有卡玛拉·哈里斯。我现在已经采访了其中的三位。

Original English

Interviewer: And there's really four front runners um according to the data that I saw, which is yourself, Gavin Newsome, AOC, and Kla Harris. I've now interviewed three of them.

Guest: 你还没采访到哪一位?

Original English

Guest: Which one haven't you got to yet?

Interviewer: AOC。我想这件事正在筹备中。我会说,他们是非常不同的候选人。

Original English

Interviewer: AOC. I think this thing is in the works. Very different candidates, I'd say.

Guest: 是的。

Original English

Guest: Yeah.

Interviewer: 作为个体而言。

Original English

Interviewer: As individuals.

Guest: 是的。

Original English

Guest: Yeah.

Interviewer: 如果不是你,那会是他们中的哪一位?

Original English

Interviewer: If not you, then which one of them?

Guest: 回答这个问题绝对是个坏主意。我很抱歉。比如,我想要保持透明,但像——

Original English

Guest: It's just a bad idea to answer that question. I'm sorry. Like, I want to be transparent, but like

Interviewer: 不过你心里肯定有个答案。

Original English

Interviewer: you must have an answer, though.

Guest: 我不知道。让真相让你自由吧。部长,她很可爱。加文人也很好。

Original English

Guest: I don't know. Let the truth set you free. Secretary, she was lovely. Gavin's nice.

Interviewer: 你和哪一位是关系最亲密的朋友?

Original English

Interviewer: Which one are you closest friends with?

Guest: 我的意思是,和我相处时间最长的那个人,嗯,是她,因为,你知道,她是副总统,嗯,而我当时负责交通部门。有几次我们,嗯,一起出差。她非常积极地参与推动基础设施法案的通过,这也算是我主要负责的最大的立法工作了,为了能够修缮道路、桥梁和机场。

Original English

Guest: I mean, the one I've spent the most time with is uh is her because, you know, she was vice president uh and I was working transportation. There were times we uh traveled together. She was very involved in trying to get the infrastructure bill done which is kind of the biggest thing that I worked on the the legislation to to get roads and bridges and airports.

Interviewer: 她被误解了吗?

Original English

Interviewer: Is she misunderstood?

Guest: 我认为任何处于那个级别的人都会被误解。就是,嗯…… 我不知道我能否……我不知道我是否有资格去评估,到底比从事那份工作的其他人更多还是更少(被误解)。我认为任何担任副总统职位,或是拥有如此高曝光率的任何工作,都会把你置于这样一个处境:当你肩负着你所拥有的那种责任时,人们很难看到你人性的一面。而且,即使在政府的其他层级,我认为这也是,这也是真实的。我认为身居高位就会导致这种情况。我认为特别是那么高的职位,更是如此。

Original English

Guest: I think anybody in at that level is misunderstood. There's just uh I don't know that I can I don't know if I'm qualified to evaluate kind of more than more or less than other people in that job. I think anybody the vice presidency or any job with that visibility puts you in a position where it's hard for people to see your humanity when you're bearing the responsibility that you have. And even at other levels of government, I think this is this is true. I think high office does that. I think office that high especially does it.

Interviewer: 你认为她会成为一位好总统吗?

Original English

Interviewer: Do you think she could be a good president?

Guest: 当然。我的意思是,当她竞选总统时,我非常积极地为她助选。我走遍了全国,嗯,试图说服美国选民投票给她,嗯,我之所以这么做,是因为我认为她会成为一位非常好的总统。

Original English

Guest: Sure. I mean, I campaigned for her very energetically when she was running for president. I went all over the country uh trying to convince America to elect her and um I did that because I thought she'd be a very good president.

Interviewer: 加文·纽森呢?

Original English

Interviewer: What about Gavin Newsome?

Guest: 是的,他……他……他并不是一个我像了解她那样了解的人,但他是我经常合作的人。显然,加利福尼亚州是一个我们正在开展大量基础设施相关工作的地方,而且他这个人,我认为他懂得如何在当前我们所处的这种注意力经济世界中取得突破,嗯,在这个世界里,你知道,旧的模式和旧的规范,嗯,在传达你的信息方面已经不再起作用了。 至于 AOC,她与许多认为这个系统正在让他们失望的人进行过交流。我可能并不认同她的每一项政策。例如,在基础设施法案上,这是我和副总统以及加文一起合作的,她对这件事的看法与我们不同。你知道,我尊重她激发了许多年轻人的热情,不仅是年轻人。她激活了许多四下张望并说“现行的运作方式无法为我服务”的人。这里还有一个世代交替的问题。当年我竞选总统时,很大程度上就是以代际变革作为我的核心信息。我没有赢。很明显,

Original English

Guest: Yeah, he's he's been he's not someone I know as well as uh as her, but he's somebody I've worked with a lot. Obviously, California is a place where we're doing a lot of our dust infrastructure work and he's somebody who I think he understands how to break through in this kind of attention world that we're in um where you know the old formats and the old norms um just don't cut it anymore in terms of getting your message across. Access spoken to so many people who understand that the system is letting them down. I might not agree with her on every policy. For example, on the infrastructure law that I worked with the vice president on and worked with with Gavin on, she didn't see that the way we did. You know, I respect that she has activated a lot of young people, not just young people. She's activated a lot of people who were looking around saying the way things work doesn't serve me. And there's the generational thing. And when I ran for president, I was running on largely on a message of generational change. I didn't win. Obviously,

Reflections on Joe Biden's Performance

Interviewer: 乔·拜登赢了。你选择支持他。

Original English

Interviewer: Joe Biden won. You got behind him.

Guest: 嗯哼。

Original English

Guest: Mhm.

Interviewer: 在他,嗯,他作为总统任期接近尾声的时候,他……我的意思是,我们都看到了。我们看到他站出来,与特朗普进行那些辩论。而且我认为,对于任何对自己保持理智诚实和客观的人来说,乔·拜登显然已经不再是我们在过去 20 年、30 年里看到的那个乔·拜登了,并且他的认知表现已经发生了相当大的变化。

Original English

Interviewer: Near the end of his uh his time as president, he I mean, we all saw it. We saw him go out and do those debates against Trump. And I think it was obvious to anyone who was being intellectually honest with themselves and objective that Joe Biden wasn't the same Joe Biden that we've seen over the last 20, 30 years and that something had changed quite considerably with his cognitive performance.

Guest: 嗯哼。

Original English

Guest: Mhm.

Interviewer: 嗯,你……你有意识到这一点吗,因为你当时在他的……你是他团队的一部分。你当时意识到有些不同寻常了吗?

Original English

Interviewer: Um did you were you aware of that cuz you were in his you part of his team at that time. Were you aware that something was different?

Guest: 我看到了美国民众看到的同样的东西,对吧?嗯,我并不是每天都和他待在一个房间里,但你知道,无论是在镜头前,还是我被邀请去白宫开会时,嗯,我看到的和美国民众看到的一样,那就是他正在逐渐老去。

Original English

Guest: I saw the same thing that America saw, right? Um it's not like I was in a room with him every day, but you know whether it was in front of cameras or whether it was I was invited to be in a meeting at the White House, uh I saw what America saw which is that he was getting older.

Interviewer: 我的意思是,对于地球上权力最大的工作来说,认知表现是相当重要的。

Original English

Interviewer: I mean cognitive performance is pretty important for the most powerful job on earth.

Guest: 是的。

Original English

Guest: Yeah.

Interviewer: 你当时感到担忧吗?

Original English

Interviewer: Were you concerned?

Guest: 当我看到那场辩论时,我绝对是感到担忧的。我的意思是,

Original English

Guest: I was definitely concerned when I saw the debate. I mean,

Interviewer: 在辩论之前的任何时候,你都没有感到过担忧。

Original English

Interviewer: you weren't concerned at any point before the debate.

Guest: 直到那一刻之前,我……我确实看到他明显变老了,但从来没有出现过某个时刻,让我看到他,比如说,做出什么反常的决定,或者至少在与我相关的领域,也就是交通方面,从来没有发生过让我认为情况正在变得不同或变得更糟,或者我无法获得——

Original English

Guest: Up until that moment, I I saw that he was visibly growing older, but there was never some moment where I saw him like make a different decision or at least in terms of anything that I was involved with, transportation, that I thought it was going different or worse or I couldn't get

关于拜登的辩论与退出

Speaker A: ……因为他的年龄,我或者白宫需要从他那里得到的东西。但当然,这份工作不仅仅是提供政策指导。这份工作还需要向美国人民传达和沟通,比如你的政府在做什么以及为什么这么做。这就是总统的职责。在某些方面,这100%是候选人的职责。

Original English

Speaker A: ...what I needed from him or from the White House because of his age. But of course, the job is not just policy guidance. That the job is also to convey and communicate to the American people like what your administration is doing and why. That's the job of a president. It's in some ways 100% the job of a candidate.

Speaker B: 看了那场辩论,不可能意识不到这有多么沉重。

Original English

Speaker B: And there was no watching the debate and not realizing how much of a burden that was.

Speaker B: 你刚才提到,你甚至意识到,即使是在这种媒介中,每句话也都至关重要。

Original English

Speaker B: You just said then that you're even conscious of like even in this medium, every sentence counts.

Speaker A: 嗯,是的。你说了一句话,如果那句话说错了,理论上就可能带来后果。而且你刚才也说了,这是一个目前没有工作的人。美国总统乔·拜登在全国人民面前像他在那场辩论中那样语无伦次地表达……

Original English

Speaker A: Mhm. Yeah. You say one sentence, that's the wrong sentence. Theoretically, it could have consequences, but that and you just said this is someone that doesn't currently have a job. That President of the United States, Joe Biden muddling up his sentences in front of the nation like he did in that debate

Speaker B: 这样显然不足以胜任那个职位。

Original English

Speaker B: is probably not good enough to be in that position.

Speaker A: 是的。当然,那也是促使他得出同样结论的整个过程的开端。

Original English

Speaker A: Yeah. And that was the beginning of course of the process that led him to reach the same conclusion.

Speaker B: 你有和他私下沟通过吗?

Original English

Speaker B: Do you have a private conversation with him?

Speaker A: 不,我没有。我是内阁成员,但这并不意味着当他们讨论是否要再次竞选总统这种事情时,我会被邀请参与。

Original English

Speaker A: No, I wasn't. I was in the cabinet, but that doesn't mean I was invited to rooms when they were talking about things like whether he was going to run for president again.

民主党换将的决定

Speaker B: 在距离大选还有100天的时候,民主党决定换上卡玛拉·哈里斯,这个决定做得对吗?如果在事后诚实地回顾这件事,你觉得呢?

Original English

Speaker B: Did the Democrats make the right decision there 100 days until the election to swap in Kamala Harris at that point? Like in hindsight, if you're honest with yourself,

Speaker A: 是的,关于这个问题我想了很多,因为我觉得在当时的那种情况下,感觉就像是:“哦,我们的时间所剩无几了。我们必须团结一致,必须把个人自尊放在一边,把内部政治分歧放在一边,迅速用同一个声音说话。”部分原因在于,我知道——而且我们都知道——如果唐纳德·特朗普再次当选,这个国家会发生什么。而且我相信所有这些危害,甚至更多,都已经应验了。但硬币的另一面是,如果有什么方法能进行一场竞争,哪怕时间非常短,我想即使最终的候选人仍然是卡玛拉·哈里斯,她很可能会成为一个更出色的候选人。我认为在2020年,乔·拜登是一个更出色的候选人,因为在赢得提名之前,他必须与卡玛拉·哈里斯、我和其他18位民主党人进行竞争。我认为总的来说,我们都知道竞争能让人变得更敏锐,竞争能传递出更多的信息。我并不是说我脑海中已经有了完美的解决方案,知道在那样的时间紧迫下该如何操作,或者它会是什么样子,但我认为,凭着我们现在的事后认知,很明显如果我们当时有那样一场竞争,情况会好得多。

Original English

Speaker A: Yeah, I thought about that a lot because I think in the moment it felt like, oh, we have very little time. We've all got to pull together. We got to put ego aside. We got to put kind of internal politics aside and we got to quickly speak with one voice. Partly because I knew and we all knew what could happen to this country if Donald Trump was elected again. And I believe all of those harms and then some have come to pass. But the other side of the coin is if there had been some way to have a competition, even with that very short timeline, I think that even if the candidate had still been Kamala Harris, I think she likely would have been a better candidate. I think in 2020, Joe Biden was a better candidate because he had to compete with Kamala Harris and me and like 18 other Democrats before winning that process. And I think that in general, we know the competition sharpens you. We know the competition gets more information out. And I'm not saying I have it all solved in my head how that could have been done on the timeline that we faced or what it would have been like, but I think with the hindsight that we have now, I think it's pretty clear that we would have been better off if we had that.

关于激进的政策改革

Speaker B: 你知道,我们谈到过也许这一次人们正在寻找一些更激进的东西。那么在政策方面,你最支持的激进想法是什么?据我所知,你非常倾向于废除选举人团制度。

Original English

Speaker B: You know, we talked about maybe people are looking for something a little bit more radical this time around. What are your most radical ideas as it relates to policies you would be in favor of? So, I know you would you're keen to remove the electoral college.

Speaker A: 是的。

Original English

Speaker A: Yeah.

Speaker B: 并且将其改为基于数字,即基于两位总统候选人获得的选票数量来决定。

Original English

Speaker B: And do it based on numbers, the quantity of votes for either presidential candidate.

Speaker A: 我至今仍无法相信有人认为这是激进的。对我来说,认为得票最多的人应该成为赢家,这根本没有任何激进之处。但我认为人们并没有仔细想过如果这样做会带来多少好处。如果我们这样做了,红州和蓝州会有大量以前被忽视的选票,现在你无法再忽视了。比如,如果你作为民主党人竞选总统,你就必须去得克萨斯州。

Original English

Speaker A: And I still can't believe that anybody considers this radical. Like to me, there's nothing radical about thinking the person who gets the most votes ought to be the winner. But I think people haven't thought through how much benefit would come from that. If we did that, there are so many votes in red and blue states that you couldn't ignore anymore. Like if you were running for president as a Democrat, you'd have to go to Texas.

Speaker B: 是的。

Original English

Speaker B: Yeah.

Speaker A: 即使得克萨斯州的大部分选票依然会投给共和党,你也必须去把得克萨斯州每一张可能投给民主党的选票都争取出来。我真的认为,如果共和党和民主党的候选人都去争夺得克萨斯州,我们的情况会好得多。顺便说一句,纽约州也是如此,即使纽约州肯定会把更多选票投给民主党,共和党候选人也将不得不去纽约拉票。还有从阿拉斯加州到罗德岛州的各个州。所以,现在那些被忽视的小州最终也会参与到这场竞争中来。所以,是的,我肯定支持废除选举人团制度。另外,最高法院也需要进行改革。

Original English

Speaker A: And even if Texas is still going to vote mostly for Republicans, you'd have to turn out every Democratic vote you could in Texas. And I just think we'd be so much better off if a Republican and Democratic candidate were competing over Texas. And by the way, New York, even if New York is definitely going to vote more for Democrats, a Republican candidate would have to come to New York and states from Alaska to Rhode Island. So, it's small states too that get ignored now would finally be part of this competition. So, yeah, electoral college for sure. Supreme Court needs to change.

Speaker B: 你会对最高法院做哪些改革?

Original English

Speaker B: What would you do to the Supreme Court?

Speaker A: 我会设立任期限制,增加大法官的人数,并引入某种程序,使得谁来担任大法官不再那么具有强烈的党派色彩。有很多种方法可以实现这一点,我认为最有趣的一个叫作“平衡法庭”(balanced bench)提案。我们需要一种混合制。但无论如何,关键在于它需要改变。正如我之前所说,众议院的代表比例应该更加均衡。

Original English

Speaker A: I would have term limits, more justices, and some process that makes it less partisan who the justices are. Some different ways to do that. The one I think is most interesting is called the balanced bench proposal. We have a mix. But anyway, the point is that it needs to change. House of Representatives, like I said earlier, should be proportional.

Speaker B: 那是什么意思?

Original English

Speaker B: What does that mean?

Speaker A: 意思是,就像我刚才说的,在选举学校董事会或市议会时,有时你会有超过一张选票,并且有超过一个人当选。我们在国会选举中也可以这样做。人们可以选出得票最多的前三名,而不仅仅是一名去国会。这样一来,你就会拥有面积更大、数量更少的选区,这使得通过划分选区来操纵选举(杰利蝾螈)变得更加困难。顺便说一下,我认为我们现在马上就可以做的一项更简单的改变,就是禁止“杰利蝾螈”(不公正划分选区)。

Original English

Speaker A: It means that I was saying earlier how to work for like school board or city council where sometimes you get more than one vote and more than one person wins. We could do that for Congress. The people get the top three votes, not just one, get to go to Congress. So you'd have bigger districts, fewer districts, harder to gerrymander. By the way, an easier change that I think we should do right away is ban gerrymandering.

Speaker B: 我们这里已经谈到了四点改革。

Original English

Speaker B: I've got four things there.

Speaker A: 呃,让我再给你提供一个用来解决政治献金问题的宪法修正案。如果最高法院在“公民联合案”(Citizens United)的裁决中表示,出于这些目的,公司和人是一样的;花钱操纵选举与写专栏文章或在抗议活动中举标语一样,都是受宪法保护的行为。那么我们需要通过宪法明确:企业的支出并不是言论,企业也不是像人类那样的公民或个人。我们可以通过一项宪法修正案来实现这一点。

Original English

Speaker A: Uh, let me give you one more constitutional amendment to deal with money in politics. If the Supreme Court said in the Citizens United decision that a corporation is the same thing as a person for these purposes and that spending money to manipulate an election is the same constitutionally protected behavior as writing an op-ed or carrying a sign at a protest, we need to clarify that corporate spending is not speech and corporations are not citizens people in the same way that a human being is. And we can do that with a constitutional amendment.

Speaker B: 那么这意味着什么呢?是不是意味着公司不能再随便把钱投入到政治运动中了,对吧?

Original English

Speaker B: And so what would that mean? It would mean that a company couldn't just pump money into a political country, right?

Speaker A: 对。然后国会就可以真正在法律层面进行约束,就像我们以前拥有过的麦凯恩-法因戈尔德法案(McCain-Feingold law)一样,只不过它在“公民联合案”中被废除了。但我们可以恢复到国会再次颁布法律的地步,规定你不能将无上限、不透明的企业黑金投入超级政治行动委员会(Super PAC)来操纵选举的走向。而且这又是那种三分之二的民众都认为我们应该去做的事情。

Original English

Speaker A: Right? Congress could then actually have laws which we used to have like the McCain Feingold law which was struck down in Citizens United. But we could get to where Congress can once more have laws saying that you can't put unlimited unaccountable corporate dark money into a super PAC to manipulate how an election is going to go. And it's one more of these things that like two-thirds of the people think we ought to do.

Speaker B: 那为什么这些改革没有发生呢?

Original English

Speaker B: Why doesn't it happen then?

Speaker A: 因为有太多已经在位的人喜欢这个系统现在的运作方式,并且因为最高法院的存在。我其实认为你可以让它在国会获得通过,但最高法院不会允许你这么做,因为他们对宪法的解释是你不可以有这些类型的规则。那么你该怎么办?如果必要的话,就修改宪法。人们忘记了宪法最伟大的一点就在于它是可以被修改的。当我们谈论宪法中最被珍视的部分时,很多人会说第一修正案,对吧?那是赋予我们言论自由的修正案。但是我们忽略了里面“修正案”这个词,它向我们发出信号,说明它原本并不是宪法原始文本的一部分。它是一个修正案,是他们后来不得不加上去的东西。第二修正案也是如此,可以说,所有的修正案从定义上来看都是如此。所以我们不应该害怕这种事情。只有通过修正案,我们才能自己选举参议员;在此之前,是由州立法机构负责的。同样,为了确保黑人选民和女性也能拥有投票权,我们也是这么做的。我们不应该害怕去使用也许是整部宪法中最优雅的一个功能,那就是它本身包含着修改它的程序。我们应该善用这一点。我提到的所有这些事情都属于系统性改革,它们关乎的是“引擎”。这样一来,“引擎”输出的政策——比如在这个国家我们是否能获得带薪家庭假?我们是否有公平的税收?是否有一个能为每个人提供医疗保障的医疗系统?所有这些事情,都将由一个运作更好的政府来决定。

Original English

Speaker A: because so many people who are already in office like the system just the way it is and because of the Supreme Court. I actually think you could get it through Congress, but the Supreme Court won't let you because their interpretation of the Constitution is that you can have these kinds of rules. So what do you do? If necessary, amend the Constitution. People forget the best thing about the Constitution is its capability to be amended. When we talk about the most cherished part of the constitution, many people will say the first amendment, right? That's the one that gives us free speech. And we miss that the word amendment being in there signals to us that it wasn't part of the original text of the constitution. It's an amendment. It's something they had to add on after. So is the second amendment. I mean, all of them by definition, right? So we shouldn't be afraid of that kind of things. things only by an amendment we get to pick who our senators are. Before that, it was the legislature. Same thing for making sure that black voters and the women could be voters. We shouldn't be afraid to use maybe the most elegant feature of the entire constitution, which is that it has a process to change it. We should use it. All of the things I've mentioned are these kind of system reforms. They're about the engine. So that then the policies, what comes out of the engine like do we get paid family leave in this country? Do we have fair taxes? Is there a healthcare system that gives everybody healthcare? All that stuff is decided by a government that works better.

关于内容创作与心理障碍

Speaker B: 多数人没有发布内容或建立个人品牌的很大一部分原因,在于这非常困难且耗时,而我们每个人都非常非常忙碌。如果你以前从未发过任何内容,你的心理上会有很多因素阻止你去发布。比如别人会怎么看你?我这样做对吗?我说的这些会不会显得很蠢?所有这些都会导致一种瘫痪状态,意味着你最终没有发布,你的社交主页也变得空空如也。我是Stanto公司的投资者,你可能已经听我提到过。他们一直在开发的一款名为Stanley的新工具,它使用了……

Original English

Speaker B: Much of the reason most people haven't posted content or built their personal brand is because it's hard and it's time-consuming and we're all very very busy. And if you've never posted something before, there's so many factors in your psychology that stop you wanting to post. What people will think of you. Am I doing this right? Is the thing I'm saying absolutely stupid? All of these result in paralysis, which means you don't post and your feed goes bare. I'm an investor in a company called Stanto, which you've probably heard me talk about. And what they've been building is this new tool called Stanley that uses

频道赞助与订阅呼吁 (Channel Sponsorship & Call to Subscribe)

Host: AI 会分析你的动态、你的语气、你的历史记录,以及你表现最好的帖子,然后告诉你应该发些什么,甚至直接替你发布。你也可以仅仅把它当作灵感的来源。有时候,当我们在构思社交媒体内容时,最需要的就是灵感。建立受众群体从根本上改变了我的生活,我认为它也能改变你的生活。因此,我邀请你尝试一下这个新工具,并告诉我你的想法。你只需搜索 coach.stand.sto 即可开始。下方应该有一个按钮。如果显示“已订阅”,说明你已经关注了。如果显示“订阅”,这意味着你还没有。如果你还未订阅,能否帮我们一个忙,点击一下那个按钮?这对我们节目的帮助超出你的想象。根据算法,你是我们节目的观众,但还没有点击那个按钮。非常感谢。

Original English

Host: AI looks at your feed, looks at your tone of voice, looks at your history, looks at your best performing posts, and tells you what you should post, makes those posts for you. You can also just use it for inspiration. And sometimes what we need when we're thinking about doing a post for our social media channels is inspiration. Building an audience has fundamentally changed my life and I think it could change yours too. So I'm inviting you to give this new tool a shot and let me know what you think. All you have to do is search coach.stand.sto now to get started. There should be a button just down below here. And if it says subscribed, you're already subscribed. If it says subscriber, that means you're not yet. And if you're not subscribed, please could you do us a favor and hit that button? It helps the show more than you know. And according to the algorithm, you're someone that watches our show, but you haven't yet hit that button. Thank you so much.

评价埃隆·马斯克与政府效率部 (Evaluating Elon Musk and DOGE)

Host: 你怎么看埃隆·马斯克?

Original English

Host: What do you think of Elon Musk?

Guest: 他是地球上最富有的人,大概也是地球上最著名的企业家,在美国本土建立公司,非常聪明,对许多事情产生了极其重要的影响。他在很多事情上是对的,但在很多事情上也是错得离谱;他缺乏一定的谦逊去理解某些事情,而这种谦逊本可以避免他因为巨大的错误而造成严重破坏。

比如你可以看看 DOGE(政府效率部)惨败的悲剧。DOGE 的失败最让我感到沮丧的是,我们实际上确实需要在政府效率方面做出努力。但我们看到的却是难以置信的草率,甚至犯了数学错误。而他们理应最擅长的一件事本该是数学。或许我指的不是那些小小的四舍五入误差,比如在所谓“有图有真相”的收据墙上把“百万”说成“十亿”。他们这么做的全部目的,本来是为了展示他们知道自己在干什么,并且在透明地记录他们的选择。结果却是,解雇了那些他们根本不知道其工作职责的人,然后又不得不在核武器安全、生物危害和传染病管理等领域手忙脚乱地把他们重新雇回来,留下了一个在 DOGE 之后实际支出比之前还要多的联邦政府。

Original English

Guest: The richest man on earth, the arguably most famous entrepreneur on planet Earth, building companies here in America, very intelligent, has had an extremely important impact on a whole bunch of things. um is right about a lot of things and is very wrong about a lot of things and lacked the humility to understand some things that would have saved him from doing a lot of damage based on how wrong he was. So you look for example at the tragedy of the failure of Doge. And the thing that most upsets me about the failure of Doge is that we actually needed an effort around government efficiency. But what we got was unbelievably sloppy making math errors. And the one thing they're supposed to be really good at ought to be math. Maybe I don't mean like little rounding errors like saying billion when they meant million on the quote unquote wall of receipts. The whole purpose of which was to show that they knew what they were doing and they were transparently documenting their choices. firing people they didn't know what they did and then having to scramble and hire them back on things like nuclear weapons safety or managing biohazards and communicable diseases and leaving a federal government that actually spent more after Doge than before.

马斯克与民主党的决裂 (Musk's Break with the Democrats)

Host: 埃隆曾经是民主党人。

Original English

Host: Elon used to be a Democrat.

Guest: 是的。

Original English

Guest: Yeah.

Host: 他会说——我也听他这么说过——拜登政府基本上冷落了他,对他的态度还有点敌意。人们总是谈起 2021 年的那场电动汽车峰会,当时大家都受到了邀请,通用、福特、克莱斯勒,但埃隆却没有被邀请,那是个错误。

Original English

Host: He would say, and I've heard him say this, that the Biden administration basically snubbed him. They were sort of adversarial towards him. There's always the story people talk about about the electric vehicle summit in 2021 where everybody was invited GM, Ford, Chrysler, but Elon wasn't invited and that was a mistake.

Guest: 当时我在场。我可以告诉你这个错误是如何发生的。当时三大汽车制造商之间正在进行一场艰难而复杂的谈判,试图在尾气排放标准上达成一个新的未来框架。那场活动的初衷,算是为了庆祝在尾气排放标准上达成的协议。而特斯拉因为只生产电动汽车,甚至连尾气排放管都没有。所以,大家当时并没有真正想过要邀请特斯拉。但在埃隆看来,白宫举行了一场关于电动汽车的活动。而他如果不是唯一功臣,也绝对是美国本土电动汽车卓越发展最核心的功臣。于是他会说:“这他妈是怎么回事?”在这点上我并不怪他。

Original English

Guest: I was there for that. I can tell you how the mistake happened. There was a difficult and complex set of negotiations happening between the big three automakers to try to get to a new framework moving forward on tailpipe standards. this event was built to kind of celebrate the agreement that had been reached around tailpipe standards. Um, and Tesla, because all they make are EVs, doesn't even have tailpipes. And so, people weren't really thinking about inviting Tesla. But what Elon saw was there's an event at the White House about EVs. He is, if not single-handedly responsible, certainly is the person most responsible for EV excellence on American soil. and he's saying, "What the fuck?" And I I don't blame him for that.

政治极化与沟通的价值 (Political Polarization and the Value of Communication)

Host: 于是他公开与民主党决裂。他收购了 Twitter,最终成为了唐纳德·特朗普最大的金主,以及关键的代理人。我问这个问题是因为我认为,任何一位总统都需要同时应对解决不平等问题(这可能是个大问题)和国家债务问题,同时还要让企业家们保持满意和高效。在共和党和民主党这两个政党中,根据数据,通常被认为对企业家更友好的政党是共和党。你很少听到共和党阵营说“亿万富翁是邪恶的”,但这在民主党阵营中却是一种主流叙事——亿万富翁是邪恶的。

Original English

Host: And he publicly broke ranks with the Democrat party. He bought Twitter and ultimately became Donald Trump's largest donor. And uh Keith surrogate. It's It's I think I asked this question because I think uh any president is going to need to contend with both solving the probably problem of inequality, this national debt, while also keeping entrepreneurs happy and highly productive at the same time. And the the of the two parties, Republican and Democrat, the party that is typically, according to the data, more associated with being entrepreneur friendly is the Republican party. It's not often you hear billionaires are evil coming from the Republican from the Republican side, but that that's a prevailing narrative on the Democratic side is that billionaires are evil.

Guest: 我不知道这算不算主流叙事,但我明白你的意思。

Original English

Guest: I don't know if that's the prevailing narrative, but I get what you mean.

Host: 所以,这种观点在左翼比在右翼更占主导地位。

Original English

Host: So, it's more dominant on the left than it is on the right.

Guest: 是的,我认为这么说很客观。是的。但是听着,我的意思是,如果你想身处高位领导国家,你就必须与所有人打交道。比如上一次,当我在交通部任职时,我和埃隆遇到过一个具体的问题。我给他打了电话,我们把事情谈开了,最终找到了解决方案,我们实际上共同解决了一个问题。在我的经验中,令人惊讶的是,只要你拿起电话,有多少问题即使不能完全解决,也至少能得到更好的应对。你知道,我们现在的政治风格是万事皆斗争。你不仅是和某人意见不合,你还必须毁了他们,对吧?这对美国来说非常糟糕。它不会带来好的政治结果。因此,尤其是在我不同意某人的观点,或者对他们的做法有意见时,我们更应该沟通。

Original English

Guest: Yeah, I think that's fair. Yeah. But look, I mean, you have to engage everybody if you want to be in a high position of leadership. Like the last time I had a specific problem with Elon when I was Department of Transportation. Uh, I called him, we talked it out and we figured it out and we actually solved a problem together. It is amazing in my experience how many problems can be, if not solved, at least better faced if you just pick up the phone. And you know, we have this style of politics now where everything's combat. You're not just disagreeing with somebody, you got to destroy them, right? And that's really bad for America. It does not lead to good political outcomes. And so, especially when I disagree with somebody or I have a problem with what they're doing, we should be talking.

财富、努力与不平等 (Wealth, Hard Work, and Inequality)

Host: 在左翼阵营,AOC 说你不可能去“赚到”(make)十亿美元,你只能去“夺取”(take)十亿美元。在你看来这是真的吗?

Original English

Host: On the left, you've got AOC saying you can't make a billion dollars, you take a billion dollars. Is that true in your view?

Guest: 我不知道。这对我来说没什么道理。我想说的是,有很多种不同的方式可以让你获得十亿美元。而现在,获得十亿美元最简单的方法,就是你已经拥有了100亿美元,然后什么都不做。你知道,我们最钦佩企业家的一点是他们努力工作,他们去实干,他们去创造,他们产生价值。我认为大多数美国人并不会嫉妒你因为创造了更多价值而获得的财富。但同时我认为,我们在市场上看到了很多结果,似乎只是因为金钱自动流向了那些已经拥有金钱的人。他们中的许多人在过去几年里财富增长了十倍之多,这远远超过了他们在此前几年里的财富增长幅度。所以我想,在我的经验中,你从零赚到十亿美元的过程,通常比你从十亿赚到一百亿,或者从一百亿赚到五百亿的过程要令人印象深刻得多。我认为我们所处的政治体系中,如果单纯地认为市场给予你的回报完全等同于你创造的效益,或者等同于你付出的努力,那就太天真了。

Original English

Guest: I don't know. That doesn't make a ton of sense to me. I I will say there's a lot of different ways you can get a billion dollars. And right now the easiest way to get a billion dollars is to have $10 billion and do nothing. You know the thing we most admire about the entrepreneurs is that they work hard and they do things and they make things right and they generate value and and I think most Americans don't spite you the value that you get from having created even more value. I think at the same time we see a lot of outcomes in the market that seem to be about just like money just sort of happening to whoever already has money. Many of them have seen their wealth go up like tenfold in the last few years. Way more than how much their wealth went up in the few years before that. So I guess like the thing you did between zero and a billion in my experience is usually much more impressive than whatever you did between 1 billion and 10 or 10 and 100 or 100 and 500. And I think we are in a political system where it would just be so naive to think that the amount that the market gives you is just purely equal to the amount of benefit that you create or the amount of hard work that you put in.

Host: 是的。

Original English

Host: Yeah.

Guest: 有些人努力工作,赚了很多钱。有些人不干活,最后也得到很多。还有些人则是这两者的混合体。

Original English

Guest: Some people work hard and they earn a lot. And some people don't do and they wind up with a lot. And some people are a mix of those two things.

Host: 它绝对与努力工作没有必然联系,这是肯定的。我从未见过比我妈妈更努力工作的人。你知道,她从尼日利亚来,不识字,来到英国,尽她所能地在每一个醒着的时间里工作,从不抱怨,但我在成长过程中,她却始终因此而在经济上苦苦挣扎。所以,你知道,我非常深刻地了解到,努力工作根本不等于财富。

Original English

Host: It's definitely not correlated to hard work. That is for sure. I've never met anyone that worked harder than my mom and working, you know, coming from Nigeria, can't read or write, comes to the UK, works every waking hour that she can, never complains, and still financially struggling as a result of that all the time growing up. So, you know, I know that very intimately, that hard work doesn't equal wealth at all.

Guest: 我认为,如果不是有数以百万计的人有着和你母亲相似的经历,人们就不会对亿万富翁如此愤怒。

Original English

Guest: And I don't think people would be as angry about billionaires as they are if there weren't millions of people whose story is closer to that of your mom.

Host: 嗯嗯。

Original English

Host: Mhm.

Guest: 这又把我带回了美国梦的理念,你知道,按照俗话说的,如果你努力工作并遵守规则,你通常应该能出人头地。这种情况肯定时有发生,但现在发生的频率不够高。最重要的是,这种情况在美国发生的频率低于某些其他国家,也低于美国过去的水平。这两件事对我来说就是闪烁着红灯的巨大警报。

Original English

Guest: And I it brings me back to this idea of the American dream where, you know, it's supposed to be the case that generally you come out ahead if you, as the saying goes, you work hard and you play by the rules. And that definitely happens sometimes, but it doesn't happen enough now. And most importantly, it happens less in America than in certain other countries. And it happens less in America than it used to in America. And those two things are the big blinking alarm lights to me.

Host: AOC 还说,一个允许亿万富翁存在的体系是不道德的。

Original English

Host: AOC also said a system that allows billionaires to exist is immoral.

Guest: 是的,我想我不认同这种说法。问题不在于他们是否存在。问题在于拥有太大的权力。问题在于能够将经济权力转化为政治权力,然后再利用这种权力去获取更多的财富。这就是人们如此愤怒的原因,因为他们看到了这种情况的发生,而且他们并没有错。金钱在我们政治中的作用只是其中一个例子,可能也是这种现象如何发生的最大例子。我认为,如果我们没有现在这样的不平等,如果那些人没有利用他们的财富……

Original English

Guest: Yeah, I don't think I agree with that. It's not whether they exist. It's having too much power. It's it's being able to turn economic power into political power and then using that power to get even more wealth. That's why people are so furious because they see that happening and are not wrong. And the role of money in our politics is just one example, probably the biggest example of how that can happen. I think Americans wouldn't mind people being as wealthy as they are nearly as much if we didn't have the inequality that we have. And if we didn't have some of those people using their wealth...

Political Power and Inequality

Pete: ……在一个基本建国原则就是百万富翁——或者我猜是亿万富翁——在投票站里与洗碗工和出租车司机排在同一队伍中,并且他们都拥有同等政治权力的国家里,去主张政治权力。

Original English

Pete: ...to assert political power in a country whose whole founding principle is that the millionaire or I guess billionaire stands in line next to the dishwasher and the taxi driver in the voting booth and they all have the same political power.

Interviewer: 是的。这很有趣,因为我很奇妙地能对这两种极端情况产生共鸣。如果回到,我不知道,13年前,我身无分文……因为我决定从大学辍学,用好听点的话来说,我有很长一段时间都无法养活自己,住在一个离家好几百英里(往返)的地方。然后时间向前跳跃13年,我现在经营着这些企业,而且生意很好。所以我感觉有点奇怪。我在这两个世界之间摇摆:一边是做企业,非常支持创业精神;但随后又会回到那个18、19、20岁的我,说实话,那个我当时真的需要社会来托住他。幸好我当时住在有医疗保健系统的英国。

Original English

Interviewer: Yeah. I think it's interesting because I can weirdly relate to both sides of the spectrum. If you go back, I don't know, 13 years, I am broke, um, because I've decided to drop out of university and I can't feed myself, to put it in a nice way, for a long period of time, living many hundreds of miles away from home in terms of a round trip. And then you jump 13 years forward and I'm running these businesses and the businesses are going well. So I kind of oscillate between these two worlds of entrepreneurship and being very pro-entrepreneurship, but then falling back into that 18, 19, 20-year-old me who really needed society to catch him, to be quite honest. Thankfully I lived in the United Kingdom where we have healthcare.

Pete: 是的。

Original English

Pete: Yeah.

Interviewer: 但是当我25岁搬到这里,在纽约市创业并经营这里的办公室时,我发现你们国家竟然不提供医疗保健这种东西,而我作为雇主,必须为我所有的团队成员支付医疗费用。当时我真的觉得“这到底是怎么回事”。我原以为这是自由的土地诸如此类的地方。所以我某种程度上理解了天平的两端,这让我意识到,实际上问题在于不平等。本质上是处于阶梯最底层的人离阶梯顶端太遥远了。

Original English

Interviewer: But when I moved here at 25 years old to launch the business here in New York City and run the office here, I discovered that you guys don't offer health healthcare and that I had to, as the employer, pay for all of my team members' healthcare. It was this really "what the hell is going on". I thought this was the land of the free and all those kinds of things. So I kind of understand both ends of the spectrum and it makes me realize that actually it's the inequality. It's the people at the sort of bottom of the ladder per se being so far from the top of the ladder.

Pete: 是的。

Original English

Pete: Yeah.

Interviewer: 这是核心问题。那么,为了消除不平等,你提出的激进想法是什么?我的意思是,想必不仅仅是对财富征税。

Original English

Interviewer: That is the central issue. So what is the radical idea that you bring forward to end inequality? I mean presumably it's not just tax wealth.

Proposing Reasonable Economic Ideas

Pete: 嗯,重点在这里。我其实认为解决这些经济问题的想法并不算激进。奇怪的是,为了通过我认为非常合理的经济观点,你必须在政治方面进行激进的变革。在经济上,我们大多可以使用我们非常熟悉的工具来做到这一点。确保实行更高的税率,不是为了惩罚富人,而是为了获得足够的收入,以便政府能够履职。确保提高税率——与今天相比不是对所有美国人,而是对企业利润和最富有的个人。确保更难隐藏和转移资金,以免出现永远不需要纳税的情况。然后,你用这笔钱做什么?你要确保建立一个医疗保健系统,例如,让处于你当初那种境遇的人仍然可以去创业,因为他们实际上不必担心如果不接受眼前下一份低薪工作就会失去医疗保健。在教育上投入足够的资金,让我们培养出不仅知道如何工作,而且知道如何思考的人,这样当工作发生变化时,他们就准备好了。确保我们让组建家庭变得更容易。像带薪家庭假,以及利用税收抵免来补偿那些照顾父母或孩子的人,这些都可以对人们产生巨大的解放效应,我认为这是正确的做法,也是一种尊重“这也是工作”的方式。是的,我曾担任过一些工作,在其中我非常非常努力,但我一生中最辛苦的时候,是我们收养了刚出生的龙凤胎儿女、我在休育儿假的时候。那是唯一一次……

Original English

Pete: Well here's the lift. I actually think the ideas for fixing those economic problems aren't that radical. The weird thing is in order to get what I think of as very reasonable economic ideas through, you have to have radical change on the political side. Economically, we can do this mostly with tools that are very familiar to us. Make sure that there are higher tax rates, not to punish the wealthy, but to get enough revenue so government can do its job. Make sure there are higher tax rates not on all Americans compared to today, but on corporate profits and on the wealthiest individuals. Make sure that it is harder to hide and move around money so that you never have to pay taxes on it at all. And then what do you do with that money? You make sure there's a healthcare system where, for example, somebody in the situation you are in still gets to be an entrepreneur because they don't actually have to worry that they won't have healthcare if they don't just take the next low-wage job available to them. Invest in education enough that we are preparing people who know not just how to work, but how to think so that when work changes, they're ready. Make sure that we make it easier to have a family. Things like paid family leave and using tax credits to compensate people who give care to their parents and or children can have a huge freeing effect on people and I think it's the right thing to do and it's a way to respect that that's work too. Yeah, I've had roles and jobs where I have worked very, very hard, but the hardest I've ever worked in my life was when I was on parental leave when we adopted our newborn son and daughter, our twins. That was the only time...

Interviewer: 照片上就是他们。

Original English

Interviewer: There they are.

Pete: 是的。我是说,那是唯一一次我常常凌晨3点就得起床。如果运气好,我能在凌晨5:30打个盹,然后就是一直工作到身体实在撑不住,接着精疲力竭地退出,然后查斯滕——我的丈夫——来接手,你知道,我们会轮流并互相帮助。而那种工作,那是一项美好的工作,但也是非常艰苦的工作,我认为这也是我们需要投资的工作。比如国民服务计划,让每个人都能有一段经历。军队并不适合所有人,但每个人都应该体会一下成为比自身更宏大事物的一部分是什么感觉,并与你不认识的人一起为一项艰巨的任务而工作。所以,我认为如果我们有这种经历,我们之间就会有更多的信任。

Original English

Pete: Yeah. I mean, that was the only time that I was routinely getting up at 3:00 in the morning. If I was lucky, I could get a nap at 5:30 in the morning and was just working until I physically couldn't work anymore and then tapping out, and then Chasten trying to, my husband trying to, you know, we'd alternate and help each other. And that work, which is a beautiful work but very hard work, is work I think we also need to invest in. Things like national service so everybody has an experience. Military is not for everybody, but everybody should know what it's like to be part of something bigger than yourself and to work on something that is hard with people you don't already know. So, I think if we have that, we'll have more trust.

Early Life and Background

Interviewer: 你从哪里找到这张的?这些是一些……一些照片。

Original English

Interviewer: Where do you find this one? So, these are some photos.

Pete: 哇哦。

Original English

Pete: Wow.

Interviewer: 这是年轻得多的皮特。我真的很好奇。你知道,当我和卡玛拉坐在一起交谈时,仅仅通过了解她的出身、她的父母和她的早期背景,我就对她有了很多了解。

Original English

Interviewer: Of a much younger Pete. I'm really curious. You know, when I sat with Kamala, I learned a lot about her by just understanding where she'd come from.

Pete: 是的。

Original English

Pete: Yeah.

Interviewer: 是你早期背景中的什么因素,塑造了你作为皮特市长,同时也是皮特部长,以及可能某天成为皮特总统的世界观?

Original English

Interviewer: And her parents and her early context. What is it about your early context that shapes your world view as Mayor Pete, but also Secretary Pete and potentially someday President Pete?

Pete: 嗯,我父亲来到这个国家是因为他觉得这里能有更好的生活。其实并不完全是那种“白手起家”的故事。他来自马耳他这个小国的一个中产阶级家庭。按照他的说法,他当时就知道自己想来美国,在这里读研究生。他有一位导师告诉他:“听着,如果你留在这里,我敢保证你会成为小池塘里的一条大鱼。” 而他回答说:“我宁愿在很大的池塘里做一条中等大小的鱼。” 这是一个看待来到美国的绝佳视角。而他正是这么做的。他来了,他在纽约州宾汉姆顿上了研究生,然后他在新墨西哥州拉斯克鲁塞斯找到了一份工作。他遇到了我母亲,当时她也在那里教书。她是一位年轻的语言学家。他们结婚了,然后他得到的第一份好工作是在印第安纳州南本德的圣母大学。他们搬到了那里,不久之后我就出生了。所以,我是在非常注重文学和学习的父母的抚养下长大的,他们也非常关心政治。我们并没有什么政治人脉。我想我在童年时期甚至从未见过任何民选官员。但我成长过程中一直有这样一种意识:了解世界上正在发生的事情是非常重要的。我爸爸总是在读报纸。电视总是锁定在新闻频道。就是这样一种感觉:那是世界上最重要的事情。无论世界上正在发生什么,都是你最应该关注的事情。那是一段很棒的成长经历,有很棒的父母、一个好社区和好朋友。你知道,我既有一种归属感,同时又有点觉得自己是个局外人。我的名字没人念得出来。我们住在这个很棒的社区里。人们做着各种各样不同的工作。我们一侧的邻居是铺地毯的。对面的家庭是退休的公立学校教师。街角的女士是一名护士。我每天都会看到她步行去几个街区外的医院上夜班。我觉得那个社区的质感真的属于我。但与此同时,我也感觉到并知道我是不同的。比如,在喝浓缩咖啡变得流行之前很久,我就有这种感觉。那是我父亲做的一件古怪的移民才会做的事,你懂吗?比如他有一个可以放在炉子上煮浓缩咖啡的小器具。我记得当星巴克流行起来的时候,他们感到有些困惑。然后是周围的一切,南本德这座城市,人们知道圣母大学在那里,但那里的另一个标志是斯图贝克(Studebaker)。在它的全盛时期,这是一家和通用汽车或福特一样大的汽车公司,但它在1963年停止了汽车生产。他们就是无法创新并跟上时代的步伐,于是公司倒闭了。这对这座城市来说是一场灾难。城市流失了很大一部分人口,并且再也没有恢复过来。当我还是个孩子的时候,我并不知道有什么不同。我没有意识到,到处都是停产了几十年、在某些情况下看起来像是在战争中被炸毁的工厂是不正常的。就像在坍塌。巨大的建筑物在这座城市各处分崩离析。每天他开着雪佛兰送我去学校时,我都能从车窗里看到它们。随着我渐渐长大,我把这些碎片拼凑起来,逐渐明白了生活在一个辉煌……

Original English

Pete: Well, my dad came to this country because he thought he could have a better life here. Not exactly in a rags to riches sense. He came from a middle-class family in the tiny country of Malta. And the way he tells the story is that he knew that he wanted to come to the US and go to grad school here. And he had a mentor who said, "Look, if you stay here, I can promise you that you will be a big fish in a small pond." And he said, "I'd rather be a medium-sized fish in a very big pond." Which is a great way to think about coming to America. And that's exactly what he did. He came, he went to grad school in Binghamton, New York, and then he got a job in Las Cruces, New Mexico. He met my mother who was teaching there too. She was a young linguist. They got married and then the first good job he got was at University of Notre Dame in South Bend, Indiana. They moved there and pretty soon after that I was born. And so I grew up with parents who cared a lot about literature and learning and they cared a lot about politics. We weren't like politically connected. I don't think I ever met an elected official while I was a child. But I grew up with this sense that it was very important to know what was happening in the world. My dad was always reading the newspaper. The TV was always tuned to the news. It was just a sense like that's the most important thing. Whatever's happening in the world is the most important thing that you ought to be paying attention to out there. It was a great upbringing with great parents and a good neighborhood and good friends. You know, I felt both a sense of belonging and a sense of being an outsider kind of at the same time. And I had this name that nobody could pronounce. And we're in this great neighborhood. People did all kinds of different things. Our neighbor to one side laid carpet. A family across from us were retired public school teachers. Lady on the corner was a nurse. And I'd see her walk down to the night shift at the hospital a couple blocks away every day. And I felt like the texture of that neighborhood like really belonged to me. But at the same time, like I also felt and knew that I was different. Like this was before it was trendy to drink espresso, for example. That was like a weird immigrant thing that my dad did, you know? Like he had this little thing you would put on the stove and make espresso. And I remember them being kind of bewildered when like Starbucks became a thing, you know? And then the surroundings of it all, the city of South Bend, which people know that the University of Notre Dame is there, but the other thing that was there was Studebaker. This was as big a car company as like GM or Ford in its day, but it stopped making cars in 1963. They just couldn't quite innovate and keep up and the company collapsed. That was a catastrophic thing for the city. The city lost a big chunk of its population and never really recovered it. And when I was a kid, I didn't really know any different. I didn't realize it was unusual to have factories that hadn't been operating for decades in some cases that looked like they'd been hit in a war. It's like collapsing. Big giant structures falling apart all over this city. I'd see him, you know, at the window of my dad's Chevy when he was driving me to school. And gradually as I grew up, I kind of put the pieces together of what it meant to live in a place whose best...

离开家乡与身份认同

Speaker A: 经济繁荣的日子已经过去了。我所得到的信息,或者说我所接受的教训是——我不知道是否有人曾经用原话对我说过这句话,但这世界仿佛在对我说:如果你想有所建树,如果你想出人头地,你就必须离开这里。你必须走出去。

Original English

Speaker A: economic days had been behind it. And and the message that I got, the kind of lesson that I was given was I don't know anybody said this to me in a sentence, but what the world kind of said to me was if you want to be something, you want to be someone, you have to get out. You have to move out.

Speaker B: 你父亲曾经那样说过吗?

Original English

Speaker B: Did your dad say that?

Speaker A: 在我的记忆中他没说过。我是说,这其实很讽刺。你知道,他是一个非常世故、见过世面的人,他去过世界各地,但他却选择在南本德(South Bend)定居。他最后也在印第安纳州的南本德去世。那是他度过一生的地方。但我也不知道,你就是会有一种感觉,觉得那就是你应该做的事。后来我也确实那么做了。我考上了哈佛,到了东海岸去上大学,然后我立刻开始意识到,我在某种程度上是一个有归属的人,这种感觉是我们在成长过程中未曾体会的,我开始感受到一种忠诚,一种几乎是好斗般的依恋,部分原因是我听到了人们谈论我家乡的方式。

Original English

Speaker A: Not that I remember. I mean, that's the irony. You know, he's this world very worldly man, you know, been all over the world, but he chose to live in Southbend. He died in South Bend, Indiana. That was where he lived his life. But I I don't know. You You just get this sense that that was what you were supposed to do. And then I did. I got into Harvard, got to the east coast to go to college, and then immediately began to understand that I was I was a somewhere in a way that I didn't understand when I was growing up and started to feel this kind of loyalty, this kind of like almost militant attachment partly because I heard the ways people talked about where I was from.

竞选总统与父亲离世

Speaker B: 他在你竞选总统期间去世了。

Original English

Speaker B: He passed away while you were running for president.

Speaker A: 是的,那正好是我宣布竞选开始的那个时候。是的,字面意义上的同一个星期。

Original English

Speaker A: Yeah, it was just right about the moment that I was announcing the the beginning of the campaign. Yeah. like literally the same week

Speaker B: 很突然吗?

Original English

Speaker B: unexpectedly.

Speaker A: 他在九月份被诊断出患有癌症,我们知道情况很不乐观,后来他在一月份去世了。所以,是的,我的意思是这并非一夜之间发生的事,但那三四个月的时间,正是在为你人生中最重要、最具决定性的时期做准备和稳定局面的阶段。

Original English

Speaker A: He had been diagnosed with cancer in September and we knew that it it was pretty rough and he passed away in January. So yeah, I mean there was you know not overnight but three or four months the stabilizing in the leadup to the most consequential decision and period of your life.

Speaker B: 是的。确实。我的意思是,你知道,这是你生命中非常重要的一部分。而且你们的关系很亲密。

Original English

Speaker B: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you know, this really big important part of your world. And we were close.

Speaker A: 我搬进了一栋房子,那栋房子和我父母在南本德住的地方在同一个街区。每个周日晚上我都会回家吃晚饭。我是说,让他生病,然后就在我们准备启动竞选的那个时刻离世……有时我回想起来,我其实都不知道自己当时是怎么撑过来的。有一次我想回忆些事情,就回去翻看了我的电子邮件,我看到了一封我在凌晨3:30发给工作人员的邮件,我想在市政府的团队里,这算是很正常的,因为另一方面,我当时仍然是市长,对吧?所以我一边在管理这座城市,一边面对父亲的去世,在此期间,我母亲还心脏病发作并做了心脏手术,然后又要启动这场竞选——所有这些几乎都发生在短短几周之内。

Original English

Speaker A: I, you know, I moved into a house that was on the same block as where my parents lived in South Bend. Home for dinner every Sunday night. I mean, to have him become ill and then to have him pass away just at the moment that we were starting to launch. Sometimes I look back on it. I don't actually don't know how it worked. I was trying to remember something and I looked back at my like emails and I saw some email I sent at like 3:30 in the morning to my someone on my staff like it was normal I think on the city staff because the other thing is I was still mayor right so I was running the city facing my father's death during that period my mother had a heart attack and heart surgery and then launching this campaign like all within a few really few weeks with each

Speaker B: 这事情太多了。一下子发生这么多事,对一个人来说真的难以承受。你是如何应对所有这些的?外面的喧嚣、家里的事务、还有父亲的离世,所有这些同时发生。你有什么应对策略吗?

Original English

Speaker B: It's a lot. It's a lot at once. It's a lot for one person to take. How How do you deal with all of that? The noise, the the family stuff at home, the loss of your father all at once. What's the strategy for

Speaker A: 我不知道。“策略”这个词有点过了。但是,我应对它的方式,首先,在很大程度上与查斯滕(Chasten)有关。所以,所有这些事情发生的时候,是的,我们是在2018年结婚的,而所有这一切都发生在2019年底。所以,我们结婚没多久,他在我们第一次约会时,甚至在我们结婚时,都没有想到——我们俩谁也没想到这一切会发生。

Original English

Speaker A: I don't know. Strategy is a word. Um, but my way of dealing with it, first of all, had a lot to do with Chaston. So, uh, all this happened, yeah, we got married in 2018 and all of this happened toward the end of 2019. So, we hadn't been married for long and he never guessed when neither one of us guessed on our first date or even when we got married that that this was happening.

自我认同与出柜的历程

Speaker B: 你知道,我有很多朋友,他们也经历了这样一段旅程——在很小的时候探索和发现自己的性取向,然后经历一个漫长的过程,直到在他们所处的环境中感到足够舒适,才会向世界宣布。那是怎样的一种体验?你了解自己是谁,然后感到足够自在地宣布出来,这段旅程是怎样的?我又该如何拼凑起这幅画面,比如你的父母是如何理解的,世界是如何理解的,你自己又是如何理解的?而且,我还有一个关于美国政治的问题。政治环境又是如何看待这个问题的?你知道,有右翼,也有左翼。在这个时刻,你是如何看待所有这一切的?

Original English

Speaker B: What is the, you know, I've got lots of friends who have been on the journey of um sort of disco discovering their sexual orientation at a young age and then going through the process of being comfortable enough in their in their environment to announce it to the world. Yeah. How does that what's the sort of the journey of of you knowing who you were and then feeling comfortable enough to announce it? And what was the how do I put together the picture of like how your parents understood that, how the world understood that, how you understood that? And also, I guess the other question that I have is like American politics. Yeah. How does that understand it? You know, you got the right, the left. How do you think about all of that at the moment?

Speaker A: 是的。我的意思是,我愿意相信我们总有一天会迎来这样一个时代:这根本不再是一回事。没有人在乎,它不会影响你的事业,不会影响你生活中的机会。它就是它原本的样子。我觉得这才应该是它应有的状态。但是,你知道,过去并非如此,现在也并非完全如此。我是说,当我被任命为海军预备役军官时,国家的法律依然规定,如果我被发现是同性恋,我就会被解雇,对吧?事实上,当我最终平静地接受自己是同性恋这个现实时……

Original English

Speaker A: Yeah. I mean, I'd like to believe we'll get to a day when it's just not a thing. No one cares and it doesn't affect your career. It doesn't affect your opportunities in life. It just is what it is. That's how I feel it should be. But, you know, that's not how it was or how it is. I mean, when I was commissioned into the Navy Reserve, it was still the law of the land that if I was known to be gay, I'd be fired, right? In fact, when I when I finally made peace with this reality that I was gay,

Speaker B: 那是多大年纪?

Original English

Speaker B: what age?

Speaker A: 我那时已经二十好几了,因为我曾如此渴望那不是真的,以至于尽管我其实一直都知道那是真的,我只是极力希望它不是真的。克服这种心理占据了我二十多岁的大部分时间。然后,当我最终在某种程度上接受了它时,也大概是我竞选市长的时候。也许因为无法接受这一点意味着我没有真正的约会生活,这在某种程度上可能对我的事业有所帮助,因为我无处释放我的精力,你知道的。但是,我记得当我意识到我会赢得选举时,我意识到,我必须完成向自己出柜的过程,这很重要,这意味着我必须向其他人出柜。那是一个标志性的时刻,你知道。所以我和一位亲密且信任的朋友进行了一次对话。我记得他的部分反应是开玩笑地说,你知道,你可真是一点都不让自己好过,因为你知道,我整个职业生涯由两部分组成。一部分是担任海军军官,而这可能会断送我的职业生涯。另一部分是在印第安纳州担任民选官员,而印第安纳州正逐渐成为全国可能最反同性恋的州。迈克·彭斯(Mike Pence)那时还不是州长,但他很快就会成为州长。在某种层面上,我已经平静地接受了这个事实,但我也知道它可能会成为限制我职业发展的一个因素。所以,我很长一段时间都把它深藏在心里。后来我到了一个临界点,我再也无法继续隐藏下去了。那时是时候出柜了,因为,真正把我推向边缘的事情是,我准备部署到阿富汗的时候。我当时已经在预备役了,但像很多预备役人员一样,一旦被征召,你就得放下日常工作去服役。所以,当你要部署到一个战区时,他们会让你写一封信,以防万一你回不来,我也这么做了。在那个过程中,你其实是在盘点自己的人生。你会在想,如果你回不来,你想对你最爱的人说些什么。那也是真正起到决定性作用的时刻,我就在想,看,我在这里,我正在盘点我的人生。我拥有很棒的生活,但我是一个身居要职的成年男人,我有了自己的房子,我即将成为一名退伍军人,但我却不知道坠入爱河是什么感觉。我只是觉得,那是说不过去的。因此我向自己承诺,如果我能平安回家,我就会去处理这件事。后来我身体上平安地回家了。但问题是,接下来面临着一次连任竞选,可我不想等到连任之后再做决定。所以,我想出了一个出柜的方法。我当时有些愤愤不平,觉得为什么我非得这么做。就像异性恋者就不需要出柜。但我知道,如果我只是试图像没事人一样,带着一个男伴出现在某个商会的晚宴上,那是行不通的,我不能用那种方式。而且我不想,加引号的,被“识破”。我绝对不想隐瞒它,但我想开始约会。

Original English

Speaker A: I was well into my 20s cuz I wanted so bad for it not to be true that even though obviously I was the whole time, I just needed it not to be true. And working through that took most of my 20s. And then when I finally kind of came to terms with it, it was also around the time that I was I was running for mayor. And maybe because not being able to come terms with it meant that I didn't have really a dating life. Maybe in some ways that helped professionally because I had nothing else to do with my energy, you know. Um, but I remember when I realized I was going to win. I I realized it was important that I kind of finished the process of coming out to myself, which meant I had to come out to somebody else. That was what kind of marked it, you know. And so I had a conversation with a close and trusted friend. And I remember part of his reaction was to say, you know, to joke that like you didn't exactly make it easy on yourself because what you know, my whole professional life had two parts. One was being a Navy officer when that could be career ending. And the other was being an elected official in Indiana, which had was well on its way to getting a reputation as maybe the most anti-gay state in the country. Mike Pence hadn't yet become governor, but he soon would. On one level, I was at peace with this fact, but I also knew it could be a career limiting fact. So, I kept it to myself for a long time. And then I just hit a point where I couldn't do that anymore. And then it was time to come out because, well, the thing that really put me over the edge was when I was getting ready to deploy to Afghanistan. I was already in there, but like a lot of people in the reserve, you leave your day job to go when you get called up. So when you deploy into a war zone, they tell you to write a letter just in case you don't come back, which I did. And in that I in that process, you're kind of taking stock of your life. You're thinking about what you want to say to the people you love most if you don't come back. And that was kind of the the moment that really is the final moment where I just thought if I Here I am. I'm taking stock of my life. I have a great life, but I'm a grown man in a position of responsibility. I'm a homeowner. I'm going to be a veteran. I don't know what it's like to be in love. And I just thought that's not that's untenable. And so I promised myself that if I came home safe, I would deal with this. And I came home physically safe. And the problem was there was a re-election coming up, but I didn't want to have to wait until I'd been reelected. Um, so I figured out a way to come out. And I I was kind of resentful of the idea that I even had to. Like straight people don't have to come out. But I knew that if I just tried to just like show up at some Chamber of Commerce dinner and my date was a dude that night. Like that was just not I couldn't do it that way. Um, and I didn't want to be like quote unquote found out. like I definitely didn't want to be hiding it, but I wanted to start dating.

Speaker B: 那你的父母呢?

Original English

Speaker B: What about your your parents?

Speaker A: 我记得那感觉很奇怪,因为我依然知道他们思想很开明,我知道他们能够接受,我也知道他们有多爱我。但是,我花了一段时间才做好向他们出柜的准备。我也确实这么做了,你知道,就像我说的,我过去每个周日晚上都会回家吃晚饭。所以,有天晚上我回家吃周日晚餐,我拿着勺子在碗里划拉着冰淇淋,脑子里就在想这件事,然后我深吸了一口气,就说:“我得告诉你们一件事。”而且,你知道,正如我预料的那样,他们用爱和包容回应了我,我知道并不是每个人都能有这样的期望。所以我对此充满感激。但我爸爸立刻就担心起这可能会对我意味着什么。

Original English

Speaker A: I remember it was weird because again I I knew that they were forward thinking. I knew they were accepting. I knew how much they loved me. Uh but I had a it took me a while to be ready to come out to them. And I did, you know, like I said, I used to go home for Sunday dinner every night. And uh and so I was home for Sunday dinner one night and kind of pushing my ice cream around with a spoon in the bowl and just thinking about and then I just took a deep breath and it's just like I got to tell you something. And um you know as I expected like they you know responded with love and acceptance and I know not everybody gets to expect that. So I'm I'm thankful for that. My dad was immediately worried about what it might mean for

关于未来的对话与决定

Guest: ……我的未来。他并不是想劝我放弃什么。他只是想到了那一点,然后谈论了一下。我妈妈想知道我是不是在和别人约会。我想她可能早就期盼着,你知道的,也许期盼着当奶奶很久了。嗯,我当时并没有和任何人约会,但是你知道的,我也不知道。大概就在那之后不到一年,我第一次带查斯顿(Chaston)回家吃周日晚餐,看着他和我的父母一拍即合,那种感觉就像是……关于那顿晚餐场景的一切,在几年之前,我是根本无法想象这会成为现实的。

Original English

Guest: ...my future. Not in a way that he was trying to like talk me out of anything. He just thought about that and talked about it. My mom wanted to know if I was dating somebody. I think she had had her eyes on, you know, maybe becoming a grandma for a long time. Um, I wasn't dating anybody, but you know, I don't know. It was probably within a year of that that I brought Chaston home for Sunday dinner for the first time and watched him hit it off with my parents, which is just like everything about that everything about that scene at dinner was just not a thing that I could have thought would have been possible just just a few years before it was happening.

Host: 顺便说一句,我只想说那真的很美好。嗯,我想你可能没有意识到,你同时作为一名政治家所做出的那个决定,对许多正在与自己的性取向作斗争的人产生了怎样的净影响。我想你也是……你是不是第一位公开承认自己是同性恋的总统候选人?

Original English

Host: By the way, I just want to say that's really beautiful. Uh it's I think you probably don't realize the um the net impact that decision had on many many people who are contending with their own sexuality um by being both a politician. I think you were the you also the um were you the first person in a presidential candidate to be openly gay as well?

Guest: 呃,绝对是第一个被认为有胜算的公开同性恋总统候选人。是的。

Original English

Guest: Uh definitely the first person who was considered to have a shot. Yeah.

Host: 是的。

Original English

Host: Yeah.

Guest: 我的意思是,并不是说我刚开始竞选时就被认为有胜算。

Original English

Guest: I mean not that I was considered to have a shot when I started.

Host: 是的。但我认为,就像奥巴马因为他的身份而为许多其他人铺平了道路,让他们拓宽了眼界,看到了对他们来说什么是可能的一样,我认为你显然也做到了这一点。而且我认为……用“勇敢”或“无畏”这样的词来形容做真实的自己,感觉有点奇怪。

Original English

Host: Yeah. But I think in the same way that Obama paved the way for lots of other people to expand their minds as to what was possible for them because of their identity, I think you've certainly done that. And I think it's um it's a weird word to say courageous or brave um as it relates to just being yourself.

Guest: 是的。我的意思是,这是一个个人的决定,但是……

Original English

Guest: Yeah. I mean it was a personal decision but...

Host: 但是我认为,当存在后果,而且是显而易见的后果时,你依然不顾一切地去做了那件事,在这方面我确实认为这是非常令人钦佩的。我们有一个结尾的传统,就是上一位嘉宾会为下一位嘉宾留下一个问题,而他们并不知道这个问题是留给谁的。留给你的问题是:世界现在最需要听到、也许它并不想听到、令人不适但却绝对必要的话是什么?

Original English

Host: but I think that when there's consequence and there's obvious consequence and you do something irrespective of that, I do consider it to be very admirable in that regard. We have a closing tradition where the last guest leaves a question for the next not knowing who they're leaving it for. The question left for you is what is the thing that the world needs to hear right now that it maybe doesn't want to hear that is uncomfortable but necessary?

世界需要听到的真相

Guest: 我认为这句话是:事情并非注定要维持现状,但我们必须去做艰难的事情来改变它。比如人们能感觉到事情不能再这样下去了。我走遍全国各地,提醒人们事情并非必须如此,但它不会自行改变。就像你不能只是袖手旁观,让某种模式、某种历史浪潮或某种技术来拯救世界。事情不是那样运作的。每个人都必须参与其中。每个人都必须做出一点牺牲。如果我们这样做了,结果会很棒。但是艰难的事情本身就是艰难的。

Original English

Guest: I think it's that it doesn't have to be the way it is, but we have to do the hard things to change it. Like people can feel that things can't go on like this. And I go around all around the country reminding people that it doesn't have to be like this, but is not going to change on its own. Like you can't just sit back and let some pattern or some wave of history or some technology just like come save the day. It doesn't work that way. Everybody's got to be part of it. Everybody's going to have to give a little something up. And if we do it, it'll be great. But hard things are hard.

Host: 我认为你和其他政治家之间截然不同的一点是,你最愿意去和对立面的人交谈。

Original English

Host: One of the things that's quite different between you and other politicians as well is I think you are most willing to go and talk to the other side.

Guest: 是的。

Original English

Guest: Yeah.

Host: 就在你来到这里之前,你实际上刚去了福克斯新闻(Fox News)。

Original English

Host: But just before you arrived here, you were actually over at Fox News.

Guest: 是的。

Original English

Guest: Yeah.

Host: 我认为这也是一件……天哪,如果我们在谈论那些不好听的话,这往往是政治双方都不太愿意做的事情,那就是你实际上必须去和你的所谓“敌人”或对手,或者是那些完全反对你的人交谈。我为你真正在这方面引领道路而鼓掌,而且你做得非常出色,因为你真是太善于表达、太聪明了。嗯,但我认为这也是当下这个时候非常重要的一点。

Original English

Host: And I think that's also something that gosh, both political sides haven't always wanted to do if we're talking about the things that are not nice to hear is you actually have to go talk to your quote unquote enemies or adversaries or those that are totally against you. And I applaud you for really leading the way there and you do a remarkable job of it because you're so bloody articulate and smart. Um, but I think there's a that's that's something important as well in this moment in time.

Guest: 我认为这就好比,好的政治在于接触。政治就是去接触人群。如果你只和那些已经同意你观点的人交谈,那做这行还有什么意义呢?所以,是的,对我来说,这是这份工作非常自然的一部分。我明白为什么这很难。我明白为什么不是每个人都这么做。嗯,但对我来说,这是我挣得这份薪水(履行职责)最重要的方式之一。

Original English

Guest: I think it's like pol good politics is about encounter. Like it's about encountering people. What's the point of doing this if you're only if you're only talking to people who already agree with you? So yeah, to me it's it's it's a very natural part of the job. I get why it's hard. I get why not everybody does it. Um, but to me it's one of the most important ways to earn my my keep.

Host: 感谢你这么做,因为能在公众面前看到思想的冲突真是太棒了。看到你走向对立面真是太棒了,而且我知道你最近也在红色州(共和党州)进行了一次巡回活动,做的正是这件事。我希望更多的政治家能这么做,因为这样我们就能看到那些通常存在于极端两极的观点发生碰撞,然后我们可以自己做出决定,请继续做你正在做的事。我认为这真的非常非常了不起,我也非常尊重你所秉持的价值观。所以,感谢你来到这里,我感谢你的慷慨光临。

Original English

Host: Thank you for doing that because it's so wonderful to see the I'd say conflict of ideas in in in public. It's wonderful to see you going to the other side and I know you've been on a bit of a tour of red states recently doing exactly that. I I wish more politicians would do that because that's we get to see those ideas that often exist on extreme polls um collide and we get to make our own mind up and please keep doing what you're doing. I think it's really really remarkable and the values that you have I also respect a huge amount. So thank you for being here and I appreciate your generosity and coming.

Guest: 感谢你的邀请。

Original English

Guest: Thanks for having me.

结尾推荐

Host: YouTube(笑)现在有这种疯狂的新算法,他们能根据人工智能和你所有的观看行为,准确知道你接下来想看什么视频。算法说这个视频对你来说是最完美的。对于现在正在观看的每个人来说,推荐的都是不同的。点击看看这个视频,我敢打赌你可能会喜欢……

Original English

Host: YouTube [snorts] have this new crazy algorithm where they know exactly what video you would like to watch next based on AI and all of your viewing behavior. And the algorithm says that this video is the perfect video for you. It's different for everybody looking right now. Check this video out and I bet you you might love...

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

关键字: political-inequality democracy-risk economic-inequality geopolitics identity-politics