Hey everybody, welcome back to the channel. We are back on another episode of the daily recap. We have a lot to talk about today. Thank you everybody for being here.

AMD had an investor day. Very important stuff. Nebas had earnings important for the overall data center space. Soft bank sold their Nvidia. You got just a bunch of these headlines in terms of what's going on with data centers, what's going on with infrastructure.

Also, what's going on with the foundation models like Anthropic that increased their revenue guidance for 2028 today. We'll get into all that. We got some stuff going on in the macro shutdown updates. A lot to talk about, a lot to get into. Let's get into it.

All right, so let's get started with kind of the core headlines of the day around AI and data centers that I think are pretty important, especially if you own Nvidia stock.

Now, I do not own Nvidia stock. My main exposure to this sector is Nvidia. Uh, but AMD is a really big player, $400 billion company.

They were $150 back in September. They got the big OpenAI contract of around 80 billion of projected revenue, 6 gawatts of power, and that took the stock up to 400 billion. $250 right now down at about 240. fell from about 260 last week.

Uh what did Lisa Seuss to say today? Well, she said some stuff that is pretty remarkable when you look at the raw numbers.

Number one, she says, "Demand for AI compute infrastructure remains extremely high. Customers are not reducing their investments in AI.

AMD is forecasting data center growth exceeding 80% on a compounded annual growth rate over the next five years. And they're projecting annual revenue growth of 35% kager over the next three to five years.

So, you got a lot of bullish things coming from Lisa Sue in terms of how she's thinking about the overall data center market. Here is a one minute clip of her talking about what's going on over the next three to five years.

Now, as exciting as the data center AI, you know, revenue opportunity is for us, um the other message that we want to leave you with today is every other part of our business is firing on all cylinders. And um that's actually a very nice place to be. Um some of the other you know key targets that we're going to talk about today are um areas where we think we have the ability to grow significantly ahead of the market um dynamics.

So um on the server side Dan McNamera is going to show you uh sitting currently at approximately 40% share. We have a clear path to over 50% uh revenue share of the server market over a larger TAM um over the next uh three to five years. Um Jack will talk about our client uh revenue market share. We're sitting let's call it in the high 20s right now. Um again a clear path to over 40% client revenue market share um in this uh 3 to 5 year time frame.

So I think one of the big things over the past couple of weeks has been questioning the broader AI data center trade and quite frankly there's a lot of different reasons why you should question it. I think all of us should be skeptical about the AI data center trade and we should kind of make sure that we constantly check our assumptions in terms of how this trade is playing out.

One of the most important things that's happened over the past week is Oracle has gone back down to prices that we haven't seen since September. Last time Oracle was trading around these levels at 233. Uh they announced the RPO growth from the opening eye contract and that led to a massive surge of above 350.

Now the reason it's back down to reality in my opinion is because well they're tapping the debt markets and they're tapping the debt markets in a pretty aggressive way. But it's not just Oracle that's doing that, which is why the stock has taken a hit.

Cororeef. Coreweave down 15% today. There is a delay on one of their data centers from a thirdparty developer they're working with for fourth quarter. And I think that's why the street's kind of upset and that's why the stock's getting hit.

But more importantly, I think their debt to equity ratio continues to pile up now above 300%. Street doesn't love that.

Nebius, which is a position that I initiated today. I did a deep dive on Nebius a while ago. I'll put the link in the chat. At that time, Nebus was trading at 130 bucks. Got pretty interested about the name. I won't go through the entire thesis here, but if anyone's interested, you can read that link um or that article in the Substack.

Today gave me my opportunity. I mean, the stock's at like 101 right now. Bought it at 108 this morning. Obviously, you're not going to get perfect timing on these things. But I saw those numbers this morning, and the numbers were quite incredible.

They're now guiding for $9 billion annual recurring revenue with adjusted EBIT margins of 19%. They're trading at 3x times 2026 annual recurring revenue.

I'm not saying the stock has to go to the moon. Definitely not saying it has to go back to 130. And it also has gone up a lot. So if you're buying Nebus just recognize it's up 240% year to date and I fully recognize that while I'm taking the position.

However, I have been wanting to get more data center exposure outside of Nvidia. Now I do think that a lot of these players Nebas Cory by Ren Galaxy Cipher Terolf etc. Terowolf down 15% today even though they did get a bunch of upgrades. All of these players are coinciding with the larger macro theme from what we just talked about when it came to AMD, right?

You have this massive kagger that's happening in the overall data center space and you have all these hyperscalers that are now needing capacity with the neoclouds.

By the way, Nebas didn't get deal with meta today which I also thought was very important because I personally wanted to see them get more than just the Microsoft deal.

And as a result, you're seeing the broader industry compound. That does not mean their stock prices have to go up and to the right, especially since all of those companies that I named are all up and to the right. And I think today's a very, very healthy day that they're taking a breather.

Uh especially because, you know, they've just been on a run. And when Nvidia is down two to 3% on a day on on a day where the data center plays are taking a breather because of likely Nvidia being down, it seems to make sense to me that they're all kind of resetting and essentially growing into the valuations which although I think Nebius is cheap, it's important for it to continue to grow as its valuation expands.

So from that perspective, the reason I'm long Nebas is based on what AMD said along with the fundamental due diligence on Nebus. But the reason I think the overall sector has a lot of room to grow is just because of what AMD and Nvidia keep saying, which is that the demand is insatiable when it comes to AI.

That is one of the key words that they keep using as well. The idea that I mean even Nebia said it today, the only reason they had a $3 billion deal with Meta, they would have had more, but they didn't have enough capacity.

Like they they in in the in the earnings call, they said we sold whatever we possibly could. And so obviously there is tons of demand. The question is just the infrastructure and the ability to execute on making that demand real.

Now, two other headlines we have in the context of AI that I think are also coinciding with what's going on with the data center plays. Anthropic says they're targeting profitability by 2027.

That would be two years ahead of OpenAI. And they're expecting 17 billion in free cash flow by 2028 with 70 billion in revenue by 2028 as well. And then break even by 2027. So realistically profitability by 2028. Very exciting to see this.

Again, the foundation models, those are also companies that are partnering with all the hyperscalers and also partnering with the Neocloud. So, the Anthropics of the world, the OpenAIs of the world, the Geminis of the world owned by Google, the Gros of the world with XAI. You really want to see them continuing to up the ante in terms of their ability to not only grow, which will justify a lot of the debt that these companies are taking out, uh, but also justify the capex commitments that all the hyperscalers are committing to, which is very, very important.

You really want to see them continuing to up the ante in terms of their ability to not only grow, which will justify a lot of the debt that these companies are taking out, uh, but also justify the capex commitments that all the hyperscalers are committing to, which is very, very important.

So, that was one main headline. The second headline right here is that SoftBank sold their entire stake in Nvidia, $5.8 billion game.

That the the sort of core headline makes it sound like it's bearish because they sold Nvidia. But in reality, I think it's very bullish.

So, first of all, they owned Nvidia for the past 10 years. The last time they sold Nvidia was in 2019. They sold 5% of the company or they owned 5% of the company and the stake they sold was worth about $8 billion.

if they held on and just got through the past five years, uh, that stake would have been worth $232 billion. So, obviously, Mazasan is not the happiest about selling that stake. He's probably pissed off about it.

But, they sold off their final 5.8 billion. And to me, I think it makes a lot of sense because two reasons.

Number one, maybe Nvidia doubles in the next 5 to 10 years, which is very, you know, aggressive for going from 5 trillion to 10 trillion. I hope it happens. I hope that, you know, it's not as aggressive of a projection. But if it does happen, a company like SoftBank, which has had their stock go up 200% or 150% this year, I mean, they've had a very, very strong year, there's no reason for them to hold that amount of money into something that can double.

At the end of the day, it's a vision fund. They're looking for the next visionary idea.

So, if that capital could be deployed in something that's going to triple or quadruple potentially in OpenAI, which is what they're using a lot of that money to be able to invest in, just given the size and scale of the fund that they have, it makes more sense for them to go that route.

Number two is that they are not taking this money and just putting it in treasury funds based on what they said on the earnings call today. They are investing in AI.

So if SoftBank takes this 5.8 billion and dumps it into OpenAI and then OpenAI takes that money and dumps it into Nvidia chips, basically SoftBank is financing the ability for Nvidia to have more chip sales, which to me is not circular.

If OpenAI can get an ROI from these Nvidia chips and then obviously Nvidia can help them execute on the buildout of these data centers.

So again, it all comes down to is there an actual ROI from these companies that are using these uh data centers and obviously I'm on the side of yes, I do think there will be an ROI and we're already seeing their ROI.

That is why it makes sense for Soft Bank to sell, put into other AI plays and those other AI plays end up ultimately helping Nvidia.

All right, next two updates uh SoFi and Grab. So let's talk about these two companies.

Number one, SoFi, they are officially putting crypto back into the platform. It has been a couple years since they've had crypto on the platform. Very important that crypto comes back to the platform.

Obviously, for the one-stop shop to be able to have all the different financial services that users care about, they're going to need to be able to offer crypto.

The most important thing from this announcement, and you're going to listen to a clip of not talking about it in just a second, is um the ability to do it from your checkings account. So, you don't have to like get into this whole new invest platform. You can do it literally right from your bank account and buy crypto, which I think is net bullish for SoFi.

I mean, I don't see how it's bearish. It's more fees for SoFi. It's more uh creative in terms of keeping the ecosystem and flywheel intact.

It's also very good to get new people onto the platform that potentially want to find a way to trade crypto and they're looking for a institutional partner that's like something they trust and SoFi has a really good relationship with their users, especially on the banking side.

So, I think it makes a lot of sense for not to bring back crypto. They're going to be charging 1%. Robin Hood's at like 6. Coinbase is at 1.5. So, they're just in the middle between Robin Hood and Coinbase.

Do I think it's going to be a massive revenue driver for them in the future? No. But to help their adjusted operating margins, which ultimately creates the foundation for better adjusted um operating leverage, they need to have other levers of the business that aren't just tied to loan origination.

And obviously, SoFi is beginning to really diversify crypto. You know, even if they can make like 10 20 million bucks a quarter off of it, it would be very bullish. So, this is not on SoFi. It

is a very big deal. Uh it's a big day and a big milestone. Uh reverses the course of time. Um it does. We've wanted to be a one-stop shop for all your financial services needs.

And one of the holds we've had for the last two years was in cryptocurrency, the ability to buy, sell, and hold crypto. Uh we were not allowed to do that as a bank. It was not permissible. But in March of this year, the OC came out with an interpretive letter that it's now permissible for banks like SoFi to offer uh cryptocurrencies.

So this morning, we're launching as the only national bank, the first and only national bank, the opportunity to buy, sell, and hold cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Salano.

So, I was going to ask, are we just talking about three for now? Uh, we'll expand well beyond three. It'll be a pretty broad assortment. We try to differentiate on being fast, having broad selection, great prices, ease of use. So, we'll try to give members, SoFi members, as much selection as they would like.

And what's the difference between going through you and going through Coinbase or going through Robin Hood or somebody else? Yeah, there's a couple of really big differences. First, we're a nationally chartered bank, which means we have the infrastructure, the processes, the financial conditions that provides the safeguards that a consumer would expect from a bank.

Um, which is going to allow us to scale responsibly. Uh, the second thing is because we are a one-stop shop, you can do all your banking, checking and savings at SoFi, your borrowing and your investing and now crypto.

And one of the unique things about that is when you come to SoFi and fund your crypto investments, you'll fund them in a SoFi checking and savings account. that checking savings accounts deposits earn interest.

Say that again. You're gonna fund it with crypto. You're gonna fund it. You're gonna fund your checking account with cash. Okay? And then when you buy, right, Bitcoin or Solano or Ethereum, the money will come straight out of your checking savings account.

So when you're not putting cash to work, it's not sitting in an account that earns no interest and it's not sitting account that's not insured. So the money will sit in an FDIC insured account. Up to $2 million is what we offer. And when you buy, it will instantly withdraw from that account and send it to the marketplace.

So here's a question. This seems novel in this moment. If we're sitting here a year from now, given this OC decision and every other bank in this country, how novel will this ultimately be? Meaning, do you imagine Bank of America and JP Morgan and every bank, Wells Fargo, all the big banks and everybody else will be doing exactly this?

I don't. And a couple of reasons for that. We're the only digital one-stop shop. they do not offer the breath of products that we offer across borrowing, saving, investing, protecting um and and and spending.

So, we have the ability to not just buy cryptocurrency, but we're now providing the ability to send payments internationally via uh the Lightning Network, which is a crypto uh network, and we'll add others to that.

Why can't they the why can't some of these sort of more traditional legacy banks do the same thing? They'll have to answer why. I fundamentally believe that we put the member at the center of that what we do. We focus on these things that are activities to do with your money, not products.

And so the SoFi money account is an account that you can use for international remittance, you could use for self-s served wires, you can now use for crypto buying, you could use for paying friends via email, Enzel.

And so the whole idea is to leverage technology to make moving your money as easy as possible, but also doing all the other things you need to do to get your money right.

So overall, net bullish that SoFi is bringing crypto back to the platform. Grab. What's going on with these guys?

So, if you've been following the Grab Goto saga over the past couple of months, uh Goto is Grab's largest competitor in Indonesia.

And essentially the argument back in March based on rumors that Bloomberg was reporting was that Graph was going to acquire Goto. Makes a lot of sense. It's kind of a race to a bottom. All these companies fighting for ride hailing and mobility margins, which means the customer wins, but shareholders don't win because there's no margins and then the actual companies aren't able to really turn a profit.

So the consolidation of the region was part of my thesis when I invested in Graph and I thought that that would happen. Over the past couple months, we haven't heard too much about that. So I kind of thought the seven billion in cash, Graph did raise about 1.5 billion on a 0% convertible note offering back in June. I thought that didn't matter too much because like I guess they weren't going to end up acquiring the company because we just hadn't heard anything over the past couple of months.

Um, now in the back of my head, I kind of thought maybe it's possible, but I just stopped really caring about it. Well, two things happened over the past couple days.

one, an Indonesian president uh official, so someone from the president's office in Indonesia said that they are actively looking for a way to grab and go to merge, which I thought was incredible. That's a 100 million users that are on Go's platform to bring that over to Grab.

That would be an absolute behemoth in Southeast Asia. Probably rerate the company. By the way, all the price targets now are from $690 to $7. So pretty much the entire I think the highest is at $8 and then you have 755. So pretty much all the analysts are on board that this story should be rerated to go higher.

But that would I think solidify that the consolidation of the region that was bullish. We got that news a week ago. Last night Bloomberg reported that SoftBank, we were talking about Soft Bank with Nvidia that has a major stake in Grab and Goto is now looking to oust the CEO of GoTo.

A because he's been involved in a ton of controversies. There was a bunch of different stuff that happened this year about Goto stealing money from the Indonesian government that they were supposed to give to kids and Google Chromebooks. Instead, they pocketed the money.

So like that is a reason why the uh government has already been pissed off with them. And then number two, he's rejecting the Grab takeover. He doesn't want Grab to take over the company.

And so you got SoftBank coming in saying, "Hey buddy, your stock has done this, aka go down over the past couple years. Grab has not necessarily gone straight to the moon, but Grab is starting to break out. It's up 35% over the past year. Go's down 1% over the past year.

And Grab is starting to really show an inflection in terms of earnings growth. So I and Grab has 7 billion in cash because they're just in a more dominant position because they're part of all these regions in Southeast Asia, not just one country that they're the obvious choice to be able to take them over.

So I think SoftBank is getting ready to get rid of the go-to CEO. There's an extraordinary general meeting on December 17th in the next couple weeks. We're going to find out kind of how this plays out.

And you might have the board of directors come together, get rid of the CEO, and then make the framework for Grab to be able to acquire the company. I don't know if it's going to happen. I'm not investing based on that happening. That would be pretty crazy if it did happen.

I think it would obviously rerate the story for Grab, but it is bullish because at the end of the day, go to and Grab competing against each other is a stupid thing. Like, it's it's a losing proclamation.

It's not something that you should want to see in the overall region if you want to have any level of shareholder returns from being able to generate a margin where the margins are already pretty crappy in the region.

Uh, so being able to do that means you need consolidation. In my opinion, Grap should be the one that's the winner of the consolidation. There's going to be a handful of winners. I think Graph is on that list.

And then ultimately if you end up getting the ride hailing and mobility part of goto even if you don't get the fintech arm of them which is fine even if it's a separate acquisition and we only have to pay a billion two billion bucks I mean that would not be bad.

I don't think it's worth more than two billion but Grab has the cash potentially the reason why smart money's been loading up 85% institutional float is because they think that this is going to happen and if it does happen it does seem like it would be bullish for Grab in the long term.

All right, let's talk about the macro. What's going on with the US government and what's going on with tariffs.

So, I am really hoping this shutdown is over pretty soon and a vote happens ASAP, but it might end up taking a week at the latest to see uh if this ends up playing out.

Number two, outside of the shutdown, which at least we have a procedural vote on and the S&P 500, by the way, I mean, green on the day, 683.

So, even though you've had some data center red today, you've had some stocks that maybe were a little frothy, got some of the wind taken out of them, Nvidia had its best day yesterday, up 6%, today it's down 2%. I don't think that's bad at all. I quite frankly think that's healthy.

um S&P's green, but you've got this headline that came across that I don't know what the heck's going to happen here, but we we talked yesterday about Supreme Court uh tariff rulings and what's going to happen right here.

Couple key points from what I've been reading. Uh if the Supreme Court orders Trump to repay tariffs, US importers today in an oral hearing with the Supreme Court said it wouldn't be messy.

American importers said that if the Supreme Court rules that the money they have paid for President Donald Trump's tariffs must be repaid, it would be simple to do so. importers pointed to a paperwork that clearly details the tariffs they paid on goods brought into the US.

Basically making the argument that says, "Hey, if we had to repay the money that we've been collecting, it would not be the hardest thing in the world to do."

uh which to me, you know, one of the arguments I had for why the Supreme Court might think that the tariffs are um well that the tariffs are not easy to overturn is because they might say all the chaos that it would cause about repaying and like you know at the end of the day Supreme Court as constitutional as they are, they might look to the reality of what the decision would entail and say, "Hey, maybe we should stay away from this. Maybe we should just vote in favor of the president so things don't go crazy."

at the end of the day Supreme Court as constitutional as they are, they might look to the reality of what the decision would entail and say, "Hey, maybe we should stay away from this. Maybe we should just vote in favor of the president so things don't go crazy."

Well, now you've got importers saying that it's not going to be that bad. And then this is what CNBC is reporting. During oral arguments last Wednesday for a case that would decide the fate of Trump's tariffs, most Supreme Court justices expressed skepticism that the duties were legal.

Trump today tweeted he was pretty pissed off about the Supreme Court potential ruling of the case and uh you know he specifically made the argument that this is not something that should be good in the interest of national security.

The exact thing he said was the US Supreme Court was given the wrong numbers. the unwind in the event of a negative decision on tariffs would be including investments made to be made in return of funds in excess of $3 trillion. It would not be possible to ever make up for that kind of drubbing that would truly become an insurmountable national security event and devastating to the future of our country possibly non-sustainable.

I don't know what's going to happen. I think we're going to get a decision over the next coming weeks. Here's my takeaway for you if you're a markets investor, which most of us here that you know that's what we ultimately care about.

Um, two perspectives. Number one, I think the market could go up. I think the market never liked tariffs in the first place.

I mean, we know the market doesn't like tariffs. The market's been able to keep up and go higher even with all the other positive things that we've had on for the past year. But initially, we saw what happened in April. The market didn't like the tariffs.

The only reason the market rebounded was because Trump said he's getting rid of all the reciprocal tariffs. So, I mean, there is a world in which the market loves that we don't have this tariff stuff anymore.

and the threat of inflation which could be one of the other things that the market is hellbent on definitely that the credit markets could be scared about that going down if the tariffs go away theoretically could be another reason why the markets go higher

the bearish perspective here is that all of the deals that we've been able to cultivate with Japan South Korea India potentially with India that's still in the works China um Europe like all that the lynch pin of all that was tariffs right?

the idea was that hey if you don't do this we're going to bring up the tariffs by 40 50% % like we threatened for the EU. I mean, I wonder what's the motivation for a lot of those countries to invest.

Maybe they want to keep a good relationship with the United States, which is fair. But if they don't or if they don't care about that or if they can't justify putting in that much money into the US because of the threat of tariffs, I mean, Apple literally made, you know, three four 500 billion commitments because they don't want to have massive tariffs imposed on their products that are being made in China.

If that's all taken away, I just wonder economically, does Trump have a point about how insurmountable it would be? Obviously from a national security perspective, which I do agree, we should have some tariffs to be able to uh incentivize the domestic manufacturing of a lot of pro products in the United States, but also from the idea of having to just refund that money or renegotiate on these deals.

These deals that were kind of the highlight of Trump's presidency in the first year of his second term. So, I don't know what's going to happen. Obviously, I'm a bit more bullish towards the end of the year for the stock market as earnings continue to go higher.

We got this rate cut coming in December. But if the tariff thing goes away, I don't know if it's net bullish and let me know in the comments what you think or if it's net bearish.

and if the shutdown doesn't end soon in conjunction with the tariffs that might lead to a little bit more volatility over the coming weeks. So the government will reopen soon and that's like one major headwind we finally got rid of and it really became a headwind on Friday when we fell 2%.

But now this tariff thing, I don't know if it's a headwind or a tailwind and I'm very curious to see what people think. But that is something that's going to be very very important to track for us as investors as we navigate going into the end of the year.

All right, that's it for me. Thank everybody for listening and watching. Thank you for all the support on these daily recaps. I saw a lot of your comments yesterday on the uh first episode in a couple weeks on Monday.

And uh yeah, deeply deeply appreciate everyone who said, you know, that they enjoy the content. I enjoy making it every single day. I think it keeps me sharp and on my toes in terms of figuring out how to amalgamate all the news every day and put it out there.

So definitely definitely appreciate everyone tuning in. And uh also happy Veterans Day. I said this on the market open today, but um you know I as I get older, I'm starting to realize that the only reason I'm able to do what I'm even doing in society, have a chance to start a business and pursue the American dream is because people died and people uh gave up their life for me to have these rights.

So, I've never given back to my country in any way outside of taxes, which I don't know if that's the most uh commemorable way to say, "Hey, like I gave back to my country." People who put their life on the line, people who served in the army, military, navy, air force, I mean, all these people that actually really said, "Hey, my life matters less than the ability for my country to be free."

That is something that I'm unbelievably grateful for. And quite frankly, I think as you get older, you start to realize how important that right is and how different the rest of the world has it than us.

There is a reason why at least I'm proud to be American and why I think America is one of the greatest countries in the world.

So deep deep thank you and appreciation if you are a veteran and you're watching this. Thank you all for being here every single day and I will see you guys on the next one.