摩根大通的传奇背景与文化驱动
[主持人]: 首先,我要向今天所有的演讲者表示衷心的感谢。在我们的播客中,已经采访过其中的 10 位,大家可以在这个周末集中收听。
自四年前播客开播以来,我们一直想邀请的一位嘉宾就是 杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)。我的人生哲学是:“不”只是通往“是”的路上的一个休息站。在这个案例中,这一哲学奏效了。在欢迎杰米上台之前,我想先分享一些背景。
摩根大通 的起源可以追溯到 1799 年,当时成立的一家公司旨在为不断发展的纽约市供水。它很快演变成一家银行,并留下了持久的遗产。在接下来的两个世纪里,它与经济共同成长,资助铁路、支持工业,并随着全球贸易而扩张。但它的角色在危机时刻最为显著。1907 年,当恐慌蔓延至金融系统时,J.P. 摩根 协助组织了应对措施,在关键时刻稳定了市场,并揭示了建立中央银行的必要性。在大萧条期间,它经历了现代史上最严重的经济衰退之一。2000 年,摩根大通与大通曼哈顿银行的合并创建了一家新型机构。2008 年,它再次踏入危机中心,收购了贝尔斯登和华盛顿互惠银行。基于几代人的决策和文化,如今的摩根大通是全球最大、最具影响力的金融机构之一。
欢迎你。
Original English
[Host]: Well, first I have to say a big thank you to all the speakers today. Um, we have actually had 10 of them on the podcast, so you can binge it this weekend. Now, one person we've been trying to get since we started the podcast four years ago is Jamie Dimon. Now I have a philosophy in life that "no" is a rest stop on the way to "yes" and in this case it has worked. But just Jamie, before we welcome you onto the stage, just a few snippets here. JP Morgan's origins trace back to 1799 to a company founded to supply water to a growing New York City. It quickly evolved into a bank and shaped its lasting legacy. Over the next two centuries, it grew alongside the economy, financing railroads, supporting industry, and expanding with global trade. But its role became most visible in moments of crisis. In 1907, as panic spread through the financial system, JP Morgan helped organize a response, stabilizing markets at a critical moment and exposing the need for a central bank. Through the Great Depression, it endured one of the most severe economic downturns in modern history. In 2000, the merger of JP Morgan and Chase Manhattan created a new kind of institution. And in 2008, it stepped into the center of the crisis, acquiring Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual. Built on generations of decisions and culture, today JP Morgan Chase stands among the largest and most influential financial institutions in the world. Welcome.
杰米·戴蒙: 非常感谢,很高兴来到这里。
Original English
[Jamie Dimon]: Well, warm welcome. Warm welcome.
[主持人]: 当我们回顾这些展现历史的照片时,第一个问题必然是:是什么样的文化让你们在 200 年后依然如此成功?
Original English
[Host]: When we look at these pictures showing the history, the first question has to be: what is the culture that has made you able to be so successful now after 200 years?
杰米·戴蒙: 首先,欢迎大家,很高兴来到这里。顺便说一下,主持人非常执着,当我告诉他 2025 年没空时,他问 2026 年这个日期行不行,所以我就来了。
关于文化,我这一生对谈论“文化”一直很谨慎,因为你可以说很多漂亮话——比如员工、客户——但那未必是真心的。建立文化的真正方式是通过坚韧(grit)和勇气去推动。在每一次会议、每一件事、每一次出差、每一个你录用或解雇的人身上,核心都应该是最终为客户做正确的事。显然,你也必须照顾好你的员工。
如你所知,华尔街的很多文化都与钱有关——某人能赚多少钱?华尔街的很多东西是建立在“补偿机制”而非“服务客户机制”之上的。所以我一直坚持不懈。2004 年摩根大通与第一银行(Bank One)合并时,我有一本书叫《我们的经营之道》(How We Do Business)。当时的董事长比尔·哈里森建议把它发出去,我说:“不,让我们先做。让人们先体验细节、勤勉、要塞式资产负债表(fortress balance sheet)、后续跟进,以及必须直言不讳的开放式会议。这甚至不应该是一个选项,而是必须。”如果你这样做,就能推动一种特定类型的文化。
Original English
[Jamie Dimon]: First of all, welcome everybody. Thrilled to be here. He is persistent by the way because when he asked me about could I come in 2025, I said I can't. He said what about this date in 2026? So here I am. But I am thrilled to be here. It's wonderful. The cultures are... my whole life I was always cautious about when you talk about culture because you can say all words... a lot of say "employees", "customers" and they don't mean it. So the real way you develop a culture is you're just driving it, the grit and courage like every meeting, everything you do, every trip you make, every person you hire, every person you fire... that it really is about doing the right thing for the customer eventually. Obviously, do they got to take care of your employee? A lot of cultures on Wall Street, as you know, it was about money. How much money can someone make? And you know, some of the things in Wall Street are built on compensation schemes, they're not serve-a-client schemes. And so, I've just been relentless. When we first did the JP Morgan Bank One merger in 2004, I had a book, "How We Do Business", and Bill Harrison, who was the chairman at the time, said, "You got to send it out." I was like, "No, let's do it first. Let's let people experience the detail, the diligence, the fortress balance sheet, all these things, the follow-up, the open meetings that you have to speak up. It's not even a choice hopefully." So, and if you do that, you just drive a certain type of culture.
会议效率与实地考察的清单管理
[主持人]: 你说过你每天都必须为此战斗。
Original English
[Host]: You say you have to fight it every day.
杰米·戴蒙: 是的。
Original English
[Jamie Dimon]: Yeah.
[主持人]: 你在会议中通常会做些什么?
Original English
[Host]: What what are the kind of things you do in meetings?
杰米·戴蒙: 你必须走出去。无论是在会议中、在大巴行程中,还是在路演中,当你与员工交谈时,每个人都知道你唯一的目的就是为公司做正确的事。所以,只要员工是基于公司和客户的最佳利益,没人会觉得我说的话是在侮辱他们。
我没带我的清单来,但我每次出差回来都会带一大堆待办事项。事实上,我的管理委员会不喜欢我出差回来,因为他们知道我要开始“轰炸”他们:为什么我们做这个?为什么那个没做?这涵盖了技术以及其他任何事情。
即使在那个房间里,我也会告诉管理团队:议程就是你们的议程。不要跟我说“你没把某项放进议程”。你必须确保清单上每一件重要的事情都在上面。这实际上把负担转嫁给了其他人,让他们去提醒:“你跳过了这个”或者“那个问题怎么办”。每个业务部门都有一个跟进清单,全球出差的业务人员彼此都很熟悉。这很辛苦,比我想象的要难,但回过头看,你确实建立了一种共同的文化。
Original English
[Jamie Dimon]: So, you got to get out. So, when you do in the meeting or in a bus trip or on a road trip that you're talking to your people, everyone knows that you're only trying to do the right thing for the company. So, no one at the company can say they're going to insult me as long as they say because I think it's in the best interest of the company, the client. I didn't bring my list. But that when you take a trip, I come back with a long list of stuff. Matter of fact, my management committee doesn't like when I come back from a trip because they know I'm about to lay on them. Why do we do this and why do we do that and why do we do this? And this is across technology and just about everything else you do. But even in that room, you know, I tell people, my management team, the agenda is your agenda. Don't say to me, you didn't put on the agenda. you have to say that is everything important on this list and it actually puts the burden on the other people to say well you skipped this or what about you know that issue or something. So every business has a follow-up list, every business when you travel around the world you know knows each other and it's hard work. I mean it's harder than I thought, but looking back you actually do build a common culture.
[主持人]: 为什么这么难?
Original English
[Host]: Why is it so hard?
杰米·戴蒙: 因为你必须持之以恒。我不允许任何细微的事情逃过我的注意。如果我读到一份客户投诉,有人对我说“你为什么要关注这种小事”,我会说:“我关注它是因为我们可能正对一百万人做同样的事。”这并不微不足道。
曾经有一位柜员告诉我们一些建议,缩短了开户时间。我曾和一些管理团队一起坐大巴,他们不想听柜员或支行经理的意见,觉得那是对他们的侮辱。而我看这些管理者时,我意识到他们可能不适合这份工作。
Original English
[Jamie Dimon]: Because you have to be relentless. I mean you know, when I go around, I try not to let even one little thing skip my attention. So if there's a customer complaint and someone says to me why are you paying that's so minor, I say well I'm paying attention to that because we might be doing the exact same thing to a million people. It's not that minor. Or it was a teller who told us something that shortened how long it takes to open an account. I've been in buses with management teams and they don't want to hear from the teller or the branch manager what's going on in the branch because they find it insulting. Whereas I look at them, I realize they probably shouldn't have that job.
[主持人]: 你的清单上还有什么还没搞定的吗?
Original English
[Host]: What's the thing you still have on your sheets which you haven't managed to?
杰米·戴蒙: 我有一份需要拨打的电话清单,一份别人欠我东西的清单——这也许是最重要的一个。
Original English
[Jamie Dimon]: I have a list of calls I need to make, a list of people who owe me something. That's the most important one.
[主持人]: 这么说,我现在肯定欠你一个人情了。
Original English
[Host]: Well, I for sure owe you one now after this.
杰米·戴蒙: 不,不是那种人情。而是比如我问了一个问题,正在等待跟进结果。我想知道为什么这件事发生了,或者那个问题解决了没有,客户投诉处理了吗。它可以是任何事情。然后我还有一份需要思考的事情清单。
我还有一份“将要放进另一份清单”的临时清单,我会随手记下来。所以我有:跟进日期、电话、即时问题。我大概每两三天就会刷一遍这份清单。我随身带着一个小文件夹,里面按每个业务部门分类,内容非常详尽。
Original English
[Jamie Dimon]: No, no, not owe me like that. Like I've asked a question. I'm waiting for a follow-up. I want to know why this happened or why that happened. Did we fix this customer complaint? It could be on anything. Then I have a list of things I need to think about. I have a list of things which are going to go on another list, but I just jot it down because... so it's follow-up dates, calls, immediate issues, and I probably burnt through that list once every two or three days. I carry a little folder which has one by each business, much more detailed like very detailed.
对抗官僚主义、傲慢与会议政治
[主持人]: 顺便说一下,你每年都会写一封精彩的年度致股东信。在最近的一封信中,你谈到了官僚主义以及如何必须与之斗争。作为一个庞大的机构,你如何防止官僚主义在组织中蔓延?
Original English
[Host]: You say in your... by the way you write a fantastic letter every year and in the letter which recently came out you talk about bureaucracy and the way you have to fight it. How do you stop bureaucracy from creeping into the organization because you're now a huge organization, right?
杰米·戴蒙: 是的。我深信官僚主义、自满和傲慢会毁掉一家公司。官僚主义就像是政治和其他一切负面因素的培养皿。无论是小公司还是大公司都可能存在这种问题。它甚至可能只存在于某个支行。这几乎总是经理的问题。
对抗它的方法是:在我这里,所有信息都是事先共享的,没有任何秘密。我记得去过一些公司,某个部门不愿与另一个部门共享信息。如果信息没有得到妥善共享,我通常会直接取消会议。如果有人在会上说:“尼古拉(主持人名)想要 X,但我认为那不对。”我会问:“你为什么要等到这个会议才说?去找他谈谈。”
任何事情,无论多么微不足道,都要走到前线去看客户。客户是一份礼物,因为他们很苛刻——他们理应如此。但他们也会告诉你竞争对手哪里做得更好,为什么我们没拿到业务。我知道建立一个支付系统连接到某个国家可能需要 3000 万美元,说“我们现在就做”很容易,但我需要弄清楚为什么员工没有执行。
在会议中,人们往往不知道谁在主持,这是一个错误。当会议结束时,如果有人说“这是一次伟大的会议,我们下周再继续”,这通常是一次糟糕的会议。会议结束时应该是:“好的,戴维,你去做 X,去和这些人谈谈。”这不应该是等级森严的,而是跨部门的。去和 HR 谈,去和支行系统谈。回来提出建议。我总是问:“如果你是今天的国王,你会怎么做?”因为人们走进办公室只是在“欣赏”问题。如果你问他们要做什么,他们只会说:“我在观察这个。”我说:“不,如果是你,你会怎么做?”老实说,对很多人来说,回答这个问题几乎是令人瘫痪的。
所以,让正确的人待在房间里。人们常以为你是回到办公室思考,不,通常是你一遍又一遍地迭代,最终达到正确的结果。
Original English
[Jamie Dimon]: Yeah. I really believe this: bureaucracy, complacency, and arrogance will take down a company. Bureaucracy is like the petri dish of politics and everything else. And you could be a small company and have it, you could be a big company and have it. It's always the manager. The way you fight it is with me all the information is shared beforehand. So you know there's no one secret. I remember going to companies and they wouldn't share with that part of the company. If it isn't shared properly, I generally just cancel the meeting. If someone comes in and says, you know, Nikolai wants X and I don't believe that's right. I say, well, why did you wait for this meeting to do that? Go talk to them. Every everything, no matter how small, get on the road, go see clients. And clients are a gift because, you know, look, they're demanding, they should be. But they also tell you what our competitors are doing better, why we didn't get something. I uniquely know it might cost $30 million to build a payment system to a country. But, you know, it's easy to say, well, we're going to do it now. I just found out why the staff isn't doing it. So, when you have a meeting, people often don't know who's running it. That's a mistake. When you have a meeting and someone ends the meeting by saying that was a great meeting, we'll pick it up again next week, it's usually a bad meeting. The meeting should end with "okay David you're going to do X. Talk to these people." Not hierarchical. Talk to HR, consumers. Come back make a recommendation. I always ask "if you're king for today what are you gonna do?" Because people walk in and they admire a problem. If you ask them what they're going to do, they say, "Well, I look at this." I said, "No, no. What would you do?" And honestly, for a lot of people, it's just almost crippling to try to answer that question. And so, have the right people in the room. Very often, people think you go back to your office and you think, no, usually you iterate over and over and over and it gets you to the right place.
清除“混蛋”:投入驱动产出
[主持人]: 谈到“正确的人在房间里”,你曾说团队应该像**海豹突击队(Navy Seals)**一样小巧精干。
Original English
[Host]: Talking about the right people in the room. You said teams should be small like Navy Seals, right?
杰米·戴蒙: 几乎没有政治内斗。而且,我们不做那些浮夸的演示。我不反对庆祝成功,但在我的管理会议上,核心是:别人哪里做得比我们好?Stripe 击败了我们,PayPal 击败了我们,我可以一个接一个地列举。无论我们觉得自己有多优秀,我都会指出谁做得更好。我们是全球第一的外汇交易商,但在越南我们只排第七,为什么?你必须深钻下去,找出哪里做得不好,谁没有协作。
然后,你必须除掉那些“混蛋(jerks)”。如果你不这么做,没人会相信你的文化。
Original English
[Jamie Dimon]: Very little politic meaning. Also, we don't do a lot of super presentations. Like I think you should celebrate all the time, but when you're in a management meeting with me is what does the other guy do better? Stripe kicked our butt. PayPal kicked our butt. Okay, I can go one after another. So no matter how good we think we are, I point out who's doing better. We're the number one FX trade in the world, but we're number seven in Vietnam. Why is that? And so you really dig drill down and find out what you're not doing well, what people aren't collaborating on. Uh and then you have to get rid of the jerks, you know, and if you don't, no one believes you.
[主持人]: 谁是“混蛋”?混蛋的定义是什么?
Original English
[Host]: Who are the jerks? What makes a jerk?
杰米·戴蒙: 混蛋就是那些一切以自我为中心的人。他们只会“欣赏”问题。他们是优秀的官僚,精通流程,但他们喜欢流程本身,而不是结果。而我喜欢结果,我也喜欢投入(inputs)。
在谈论业务时,产出(output)是你的业绩,比如支行的表现。但投入是什么?你是否对人员进行了妥善培训?你是否构建了正确的技术?为什么我们不在奥斯陆多设一个网点?投入将驱动未来 20 年的业务,而产出只是你一直以来所做工作的结晶。
通过信息共享可以消除很多混蛋行为。那些总是谈论下一份工作、下一件事、自我吹嘘的人,你可以看到这些“疾病般”的行为。
此外,我也必须每天赢得信任和尊重。并不是我走进房间,大家就必须信任我。他们会密切观察:老板在做什么?他说的是真心的吗?他有跟进吗?希望我能得到人们的信任,让他们知道对我可以说任何话。这完全不会困扰我。我曾对监管机构、总理、银行家、技术人员说,我只是想做得更好。
Original English
[Jamie Dimon]: It's all about them. They admire problem. I say they're like good bureaucrats do. They're graded process, but they like the process, not the outcome. Whereas I like the outcome. I like the inputs. You know like when you talk about business you talk about your the output, your output is your performance, your branch something like that but what was the input? Did you train the person properly? Did you build the right technology? The input will drive the business for 20 years, the output's just the result of what you did all that time. But the sharing part eliminates a lot of it... they simply can't get beyond the fact that they're always talking about like the next job, the next thing and pounding their chest. Obviously, men do that more than women. But you see these diseased behaviors... and I have to earn my trust and respect every day, too. It isn't like I walk in a room and somehow you have to trust me. You don't. You're going to be watching closely. What does the boss do? What does he say? Does he really mean it? Does he follow up? And hopefully I'm trusted by people and they know it's okay to say anything to me. Doesn't bother me whatsoever.
公司治理:董事会与神经元网络
杰米·戴蒙: 还有一点对治理很重要。自 2020 年我加入第一银行以来,我的董事会每次会议都会在没有我的情况下单独开会。我要求他们这样做,因为我有点强势,我有我的意见。但每当有重大决策时,我会请其他高级管理人员来,让他们告诉董事会真实想法。他们可能会在人员决策或风险决策上与我意见相左。之后,我会离开房间,董事会百分之百独立开会。
通常首席董事之后会给我打个电话,或者写一张手写便条,给我一些指导,告诉我哪些地方可以做得不同,他们想听什么,担心什么。这让我做得更好。我从未为此担心。
另外,我从不在董事会上做 PPT 演示。所有内容都是口头的。董事会喜欢这样。如果你在现场,你会听到有人说:“嘿,在投资银行业务中,我们在固定收益领域表现出色。让我谈谈我们打算如何在这些城市扩充人员。我们认为随着时间的推移,他们将部署多少资本,相关的风险是什么。我们考虑过方案 A 和 B,但选择了 C。”这就是口头交流,保持快节奏。
Original English
[Jamie Dimon]: My board now, I've been doing this since I got to Bank One in 2020, meets without me every single meeting. I asked them to do it because you know I'm a little forceful. I have my opinions, but every time there's a big decision, I have the other senior executives come and say what they think. They might disagree with me. But after that, I leave the room and the board meets 100% without me. Uh, and usually the lead director usually gives me a call afterwards or a handwritten note, you know, a little coaching what I could do different, what they want to hear about, what they're concerned about. Uh, and it made me do a better job. I was never worried about it. No one... I have never done a presentation at the board. A lot of the presentations are verbal. So, if you went in there, you'd heard the person say, "Hey, in investment banking, we did great in fixed income. Let me talk about how we're going to expand bankers in these eight cities... Here's the risk associated with it. We looked at other options A and B, but we'd picked this one C." So, it's just a verbal and the board loves it.
[主持人]: 我问过另一家美国大银行的 CEO,是什么让摩根大通如此特别?他说,那是关于“公司(firm)”,而不是关于个人。你如何灌输这一点?
Original English
[Host]: I asked the CEO of one of the other big American banks, what made JP Morgan really special? And he said, well, it's about the firm. It's not about the individual people. How do you install that?
杰米·戴蒙: 我们都知道运动队。你看足球或篮球比赛,你知道球队什么时候在协作。他们各司其职,学习战术,都想赢球,不断传球。你也知道球队里什么时候有人只是为了自己在赢。生意也是一样。
我总是说:“是的,我们没做得像高盛那么好,是因为 A、B、C 原因。”通常是因为他们做得更好。当你看到破坏团队的人时,你一眼就能认出来。在团队里,我只是穿着球衣的人,我甚至不是主教练,我更像是总经理。那些经营业务的人才是四分卫,他们做决策。
我在信中提到,公司就像一个神经元网络。比如某个团队可以打电话给全球各地的任何人来帮助客户,并立即得到答复。这可能是不同的资产负债表、不同的货币、不同的问题、一笔本地循环贷款,或者是某个没想到的绝妙并购点子。这个神经元网络是不可替代的。顺便说一下,AI 在很长一段时间内都无法取代它。
Original English
[Jamie Dimon]: I think that you know, you know what it is. We all know sports teams. You know when the team's working. They're doing their job. They learn their plays. They all want to win. They pass off. And you know when there's someone on that team who is just winning for everybody and business is the same thing. I always say, "Yeah, it's because they're better generally." but you know it when you see it and you know that person who's ruining it. I'm... I just wear the jersey. I'm not even the senior coach. I'm like the general manager. You know, we have people running the businesses who actually like they're the quarterbacks. They're making the decisions. I wrote in my letter about it's like a neural network. She can call anyone around the world to help our clients and they'll get an immediate answer. That neural network you can't replace it. By the way, AI won't be able to replace it at least not for a long time.
数字转型与私人信贷风险
[主持人]: 你说团队需要像海豹突击队一样运作,这具体指什么?
Original English
[Host]: You say the teams need to operate a bit like Navy Seals. What do you mean by that?
杰米·戴蒙: 我认为你必须兼顾两者:拥有获得充分授权、专注于完成某件事的小型团队。
我记得几年前尝试做数字账户开户时,最初的反应是:技术部门说行,AI 部门说行,销售说行,营销说行,支行系统也说行。如果这只是每个人工作的 1%,那它永远搞不定。你需要专属的人员,被授权去构建数字开户流程。他们当然需要依赖很多人,但他们团队里有他们需要的一切——可能是某个地方的律师、合规人员等。这很难做到。
你也需要平台。我们不能让每个人都有自己独立的应用程序。就像海豹突击队,他们有共同的装备、共同的语言、共同的情报。他们不自己选枪和坦克,那是通用的。你必须确保这个通用平台不会产生巨大的官僚机构,扼杀团队的能力。这确实会发生,每个人都想审查。所以,你必须设立“作战室”。好的,我们是要用 Databricks 还是 Snowflake?把人叫到房间里,当场解决,不要让各小组来回拉锯六个月、九个月甚至一年。
Original English
[Jamie Dimon]: I think you got to have small teams that are fully authorized dedicated to accomplish something. So I remember trying to do digital account years ago and the first reaction you get is tech says okay, AI says okay, sales says okay, marketing says okay, branch system says okay. If it's 1% of each person's job, it will not get done. You need a dedicated people authorized to build a digital opening. They obviously have to rely on lots of people but they have what they need on the team. It's hard to do. You also need the platform. Kind of like these Navy Seal teams. They all have common equipment, common languages, common intelligence. They don't pick their own guns and their own tanks. That's common. You got to make sure that the common one doesn't create an enormous bureaucracy that kills the ability of the team. And you have to have like little war rooms. Okay, are we going to do this with Data Bricks or Snowflake? Get the people in the room and work it out. Don't allow it to go back and forth with groups for six months or nine months or a year.
[主持人]: 让我们从企业文化转向风险文化。你目前在信贷市场看到了什么?
Original English
[Host]: Great. Well, let's move from corporate culture to risk culture. What are you seeing in the credit market just now?
杰米·戴蒙: 处理风险时,你必须非常有纪律,通过共享风险报告一遍又一遍地检查,因为情况会变。目前美国经济状况良好。如果你谈论的是私人信贷(private credit),它的规模目前是 1.7 万亿美元。相比之下,投资级债券是 13 万亿美元,抵押贷款也是 13 万亿美元。所以它并不庞大,不具有系统性,即使出了问题也不会造成大麻烦。
然而,正如我在信中写的,我并不是说它很糟糕,但在广泛的领域内,承销标准出现了轻微恶化:假设过于激进、杠杆略高、过多的评级套利、契约条款变弱。现在有超过 1000 家私人信贷机构。也许某些顶级机构非常出色,但我保证这 1000 家并不全是。我的观点是,由于我们很久没经历过信贷衰退了,当衰退到来时,情况会比人们想象的更糟。
Original English
[Jamie Dimon]: Yeah. First of all, when it comes to risk, you have to be really disciplined and examine it over and over and over with risk reports shared. So the United States is doing fine. Private credit is at 1.7 trillion. Investment grade is 13 trillion. Mortgages is 13 trillion. So, it's not huge. It's not systemic. However, there's been a slightly deterioration across a wide spectrum of stuff: assumptions too aggressive, leverage a little bit higher, too much ratings arbitrage, covenants have gone a little bit weaker. I think there are more than a thousand private credit people. I guarantee you not all thousand of them are [brilliant]. So my view, we haven't had a credit recession so long. So when we have one, it will be worse than people think.
通胀、地缘政治与欧洲的挑战
[主持人]: 你目前最担心的风险是什么?
Original English
[Host]: What are the risks you are most concerned about just now?
杰米·戴蒙: 网络安全。坏人会利用网络技术,他们寻找漏洞的能力会越来越强。然后是地缘政治。我不担心美国经济,经济就像天气,总会变好。但对自由民主世界未来最重要的事是地缘政治。
乌克兰和伊朗的战争,以及 NATO 必须保持强大。我们需要与贸易伙伴合作,保持西方世界的团结。我们能做的最糟糕的事就是让它碎片化。要记住,经济关系不仅是关税,还有投资规则、监管规则、WTO 规则。
碎片化正是俄罗斯和中国想要的。我们应该加强经济和军事联盟。如果有正当的抱怨,我们可以处理,但必须确保不让现有的世界碎片化。
Original English
[Jamie Dimon]: Oh, cyber. The bad guys can use cyber and they're going to get stronger and more powerful in terms of finding vulnerabilities. And then geopolitics. I don't worry about the US economy. The economy is like the weather. The most significant thing for the future of the free and democratic world is the geopolitics. I'd say the wars in Ukraine, Iran, our relationship that NATO has to stay strong. We need to work with our trading partners to keep the western world together. I think the worst thing we can do is fragment it. The fragmentation would be the reason that a book is written one day "How the West Was Lost". Which is precisely what Russia and China wants.
[主持人]: 你在现阶段对通胀有多担心?
Original English
[Host]: How worried are you about inflation at this stage?
杰米·戴蒙: 我不“担心”它,但我会考虑各种情景。最坏的情况是滞胀(stagflation)。我会问:如果发生这种情况,对我们和客户意味着什么?
目前存在很多通胀因素,包括战争、全球重新军事化、基础设施需求以及我们的财政赤字。我不明白世界在运行如此庞大的赤字时,怎么会没有通胀。也许这还没发生,但可能已经在路上了。如果通胀回升,会考倒很多人。
关于政府债务,我并不担心我们无法处理,但我认为成熟的做法是主动应对,而不是等它发生。按照现在的趋势,最终可能会引发某种债券危机,然后我们不得不去处理。地缘政治、石油、政府赤字——这些因素的交织可能会在 2026 年引发问题,也可能不会,但它们必须得到妥善解决。
Original English
[Jamie Dimon]: I'm not worried about it, but on the list of scenarios would be... the worst case is stagflation. I just wouldn't take it off the list. I think there are a lot of inflationary things out there including the Iran war, the remilitarization of the world, the infrastructure needs of the world and our deficits. I don't know how the world running deficits like this isn't inflationary. It is possible that inflation ticks up and that will catch a lot of people off guard. Given the level of government debt, I just think maturity should say you should deal with it as opposed to let it happen. The way it's going now, there will be some kind of bond crisis and then we'll have to deal with it.
[主持人]: 谈谈欧洲。25 年前,欧洲和美国的 GDP 规模相当,现在欧洲只有美国的 70%。你说过欧洲从未完成其经济联盟,这是什么意思?
Original English
[Host]: Should we move to Europe? 25 years ago, the GDP of Europe and America was the same. Now Europe is 70% of the US levels. And you say that Europe never finished its economic union. What do you mean by that?
杰米·戴蒙: 我们正在缓慢步入一个真正的难题。我认为欧盟是人类最伟大的成就之一,但在经历了几千年的战争后,它并未真正完工。
欧盟的一部分意义在于拥有一个共同市场,让所有公司能像在美国那样跨国竞争。这种共同市场为美国公司创造了巨大的竞争优势。此外,官僚主义、反商业税收也不利于增长。
**德拉吉(Mario Draghi)**写的《德拉吉报告》列出了 300 条建议,但目前只执行了七八条。欧洲需要资本市场联盟、通用的破产法等。如果欧洲经济萎缩到只有美国的 50%,你们的公司将无法与美国和中国公司竞争。中国在几乎每个行业都在打造“巨无霸”。你们需要规模和范畴。如果我是国王,我会给欧洲一份巨大的、互惠的自由贸易法案。欧洲变弱对美国的长期健康也是不利的。
Original English
[Jamie Dimon]: Yeah, we're slow walking into a real problem here. I think the European Union was one of the greatest accomplishments of mankind, but it never got finished. Part of the point of the European Union is have a common market so that all of the companies can compete across all countries just like you can in the United States. Also bureaucracy, anti-business taxes not conducive to growth. Mario Draghi wrote the Draghi report. He lists 300 recommendations of which they've done seven or eight. If that number becomes 50% of America, your companies will not be able to compete with American and Chinese companies. The Chinese are building juggernauts in almost every industry. You're going to need scale and scope. Europe being weaker is actually bad for our long-term health.
AI 的力量、工作模式与领导力终章
[主持人]: AI 会如何改变摩根大通和你工作的方式?
Original English
[Host]: Moving on, what will AI do to JP Morgan and the way you work?
杰米·戴蒙: 我们不会把头埋进沙子里,我们会利用 AI 为客户做得更好。我们已经做了 13 年,部署了数千人,在风险、欺诈、营销、对冲、笔记记录等领域有数百个用例。这仅仅是个开始,它非常强大。
AI 也会被坏人利用。所以我们投入巨资进行网络防御,包括网络细分、密码保护等。有些只是基础卫生习惯。比如,别让我进入支付系统,我不需要,我也不会用。有时人们会给 CEO 访问权限,但如果有人拿到了我的密码,他们就进入了系统。
我们还需要政府的帮助,因为“木桶的短板”决定了整体安全。一个小的供应商被攻破,可能导致整家工厂关闭。
此外,政府应该考虑“重新部署(redeployment)”。如果人们因为 AI 失去工作,我们需要培训、收入援助或提前退休来照顾他们。AI 可能比互联网或蒸汽机的普及速度快得多,快到社会难以适应。我们不希望看到大面积失业引发巨大的社会问题。
Original English
[Jamie Dimon]: No, we are not going to put our heads in the sand. We're going to use AI to do a better job for you. We've been doing it for 13 years. We have use cases around risk, fraud, marketing, hedging, note taking... and it is really powerful stuff. AI is also used by bad guys. So we spend a lot of money in cyber defense. Don't allow me to be in our payment systems. I don't need to do it. If someone got my passcode, they're in the payment systems. We're going to have to work together with the government to get this right. We need to say to people, "Hey we love you, we got this job here, here's training." This may happen much faster than the ability of our society to adjust. We don't want to have so many jobs loss that you're creating huge social problems.
[主持人]: 谈到这个,你一方面强烈要求大家回到办公室,另一方面你在信中说,未来某个阶段我们每周只需工作三天半。
Original English
[Host]: Talking of which, on the one hand you've been very vocal that you want everybody to come back back to the office, on the other hand you say in your letter that you think at some stage will work three and a half days.
杰米·戴蒙: 随着生产力的提高,发达国家的人们未来可能会每周工作三天半。我们的生活会很精彩,人均 GDP 会达到 20 万美元。
而在办公室工作是另一个问题,那是关于协作、社交和创意生成。我不认为远程办公对很多类型的工作有效。如果它对客户没好处,我们就不会做。我们是为了客户而存在的,不是为了满足员工“不想上班”的愿望。绝大多数人已经回来了。我告诉一些朋友:“我理解你不想回来,这并无不道德,但你不能告诉摩根大通该怎么做。你可以继续工作直到找到过渡,但如果你不想回办公室,你得去别处找工作。”
Original English
[Jamie Dimon]: Sometime down the road with the more productivity, human beings will probably be working three and a half days a week. We'll have wonderful lives. I think work in the office is a different issue that is collaboration, socialization, idea generation. I just don't think it works very well for a whole bunch of types of jobs and if it doesn't work for the client we're not going to do it. We're here for the client, we're not here to satisfy my employees that they don't want to do it. If you don't want to come back to work, you're going to have to find a job somewhere else.
[主持人]: 最后一个问题,对你来说,什么是获胜的企业文化?
Original English
[Host]: What is a winning corporate culture for you?
杰米·戴蒙: 极其关注细节、基于事实的分析、永不放弃。不要相信表面数据,要去思考数据背后的意义。要有良好的支出和糟糕的支出,良好的收入和糟糕的收入。
然后,管理团队之间要完全开放。有详细的跟进清单。员工要有勇气直言不讳。尊重每一个人,每天都要去赢得这份尊重。我希望每个人都觉得公司对待他们很好,给了他们机会,让他们信任公司。
我们也会犯很多错误,但你会信任我们会去修复它们。这种始终如一的纪律感让我感到自豪。我去参加颁奖典礼,看到一些从未坐过飞机的基层员工因为获得优秀奖项而流泪,这极大地激励了我。我们在给人们机会,他们珍惜这份工作。有时他们会在我耳边窃窃私语投诉,我总会去核实。
Original English
[Jamie Dimon]: I'll give it to you real quick: people real detail from facts analysis. You never give up on it. Don't believe the number. Think about a little bit. There are good expenses and bad expenses. There are good revenues and bad revenue. Then you want to have a complete openness with management teams. Detailed followup list. People got to have a little grit, a little bit of courage to speak up. Treat everyone with respect. Earn your respect every day. I make a lot of mistakes, so you also trust me we'll fix them. And it makes me very proud and it motivates me tremendously that we're giving opportunity to people. Sometimes they whisper complaints in my ear, but I check. I always check.
[主持人]: 杰米,这次交流太精彩了。非常感谢。
Original English
[Host]: Jamie, it's been extraordinary. Thank you so much.
杰米·戴蒙: 非常感谢。
Original English
[Jamie Dimon]: Thank you very much.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Jamie Dimon, Nicolai Tangen, Mario Draghi
公司/组织: JPMorgan Chase, Stripe, PayPal, Goldman Sachs
产品/模型: AI
媒体/书籍: How We Do Business