预测市场与投机界限的探讨
Joe Weisenthal: 法律上是否会对 Robinhood 设置障碍,比如建立一个巨大的轮盘赌直播,并让人们针对红黑结果签署期货事件合约?
Original English
Joe Weisenthal: Would there be any limitation legally on Robinhood setting up a live stream of a giant roulette wheel and having people make futures event contracts on whether it's red or black?
Vlad Tenev: 是的,我的意思是,目前我们的政策是让合约由真实事件支撑。我们不想做纯粹的衍生品。我们还没有做过任何衍生形式的预测市场。而且这其中也有不同的形式,比如你有了预测市场,然后又有了针对“这个预测市场会如何发展”的二次预测市场。
Original English
Vlad Tenev: Yeah, I mean, currently our policy has been to have them be backed by real events. So we don't want to do like derivative. We haven't done any derivative prediction markets. And there's there's different forms of that as well. Like you have like prediction markets and then you have a prediction market on how this prediction market is going to go.
Joe Weisenthal: 比如 PolyMarket 曾有一个关于超级碗掷硬币结果的市场,赔率锁定在 50%。这听起来非常像赌博,对吧?如果人们愿意为掷硬币下注,为什么还要举办超级碗呢?为什么不直接弄个连续掷硬币机让大家交易?有什么在阻止你们这样做吗?
Original English
Joe Weisenthal: So like for example, Poly Market had a market where it was the coin toss at the Super Bowl and you could bet on heads or tails and was trading at 50%. Yeah. For the toss. And then it went to I mean, that seems very much like gambling, right. Well, like, why even bother having the Super Bowl at that point if people are willing to, like, bet money on a coin toss? Why not just have a continuous coin toss? Why? Why just forget the Super Bowl. Just have a coin tossing machine and let people trade on it. Is there like, is there anything actually like stopping you from doing that?
Vlad Tenev: 我不确定,这我得研究一下。我们目前不提供这类合约。作为一名前交易员,我个人可能不会交易这些。
Original English
Vlad Tenev: I'm not sure. Yeah. I mean, I'd have to look into that. We don't offer any of those contracts. I personally, you know, I'm a former trader. Probably wouldn't trade those.
资产代币化:私募股权的散户化尝试
Tracy Alloway: 我们去年做了一期关于 Robinhood 代币化努力的节目,探讨如何让用户交易 OpenAI 或 SpaceX 等私有公司的“准股权”。节目播出后,包括这些公司在内的人反应很大,他们觉得:“我们什么时候授权过股权这样交易了?”
Original English
Tracy Alloway: So we did an episode last year with Vlad Tenev, co-founder and CEO of Robinhood, and that was about the company's tokenization efforts. So basically, its ability to create instruments that would allow users to actually trade, shares, not shares, I guess, but, you know, quasi equity or equity linked instruments in private companies like, you know, an OpenAI or something like that. And then after that came out, a bunch of people, including the company, there's a lot of reaction. Yeah, they're like, what the heck we did. Since when did you know these private companies? They're like, since when the heck did like, we authorize our equity to be traded like this for all kinds of stuff.
Vlad Tenev: 确实,很多公司担心自己的声誉,如果不了解某件事,他们就会说“这与我们无关”,这很公平。AI 公司通常会说希望能让散户投资者获得敞口,但涉及到具体细节时,由于这是个新事物,没人想打破现状。但对我们来说,这就是我们的业务:确保散户拥有与机构相同的优势。
Original English
Vlad Tenev: Yeah. And, you know, they, I think there was various degrees of disavowal. I think a lot of these companies are very concerned about their reputations, and if they don't understand something, they don't have time to to dig into it. They'll just say, we had nothing to do with this, which I think is fair. I think you talk to these AI companies and they all kind of say the same thing, which is, yeah, we'd love our, our, company to allow retail investors exposure. Right. And we think that would be better for the world. Everyone generally agrees with this. But when you get down to the details of what that entails and it is a new thing, not a lot of companies are doing it. Nobody really wants to be the first, and no one wants to mess with the status quo.
Robinhood Ventures:打通合规投资路径
Vlad Tenev: 本周我们将 Robinhood Ventures Fund 1 (RVI) 在纽交所上市,这是一个封闭式基金。你可以把它看作是一个上市的风险投资公司。我们从散户和部分机构投资者那里筹集资金,用于投资私有公司。这在传统上仅限于合格投资者 (Accredited Investors),但 RVI 是一个非合格投资者也可以参与的工具,且不收业绩提成 (No Carry)。
Original English
Vlad Tenev: And actually this week we are taking public, Robinhood Ventures fund one RV on the Nicey, which is a closed end fund. So you can think of it as a venture capital firm that we're taking public. We raise capital from retail investors and some institutional as well. And we use that capital to invest in private companies, which we've already invested in, and quite a few. These are things that traditionally would be limited to accredited investors. Right. But it's non-accredited vehicle and also no carry.
Vlad Tenev: 我们的投资组合包括 Databricks、Revolut、Stripe(已签署尚未交割)等。这些公司很高兴能有散户参与其中。这与代币化单个公司不同,更容易被公司接受。我相信散户接触私有资产将逐渐成为常态。
Original English
Vlad Tenev: Portfolio companies and these are companies like Databricks or, Revolut. I think I have to go through all of them because I don't want to pick out a particular, boom, hypersonic. Oh, yeah. We had their see on. Yeah. Macau, and stripe, which we've signed in and not closed. And I'm probably forgetting some, but, yeah, these are all companies that are excited to have Robinhood and retail be a part of the picture.
投资、交易与博弈的区别
Tracy Alloway: 你如何区分投资、交易和博弈(赌博)这三种行为?因为代币化股票等产品总是会引发这种紧张感。
Original English
Tracy Alloway: I have one conceptual question, which is when you think about the difference between, I guess, investor trading and gambling, how would you differentiate those three activities?
Vlad Tenev: 我认为投资与交易的区别主要是速度。投资的心理模型是买入并长期持有,从不打算卖出,只想看着资产增值。交易则是看到一个有时效性的机会,买入并在机会消失前卖出。而博弈大多是由情感驱动的,比如因为我喜欢某个本地球队而下注,纯粹是为了娱乐。
Original English
Vlad Tenev: I think that the difference between investing and trading is really one of velocity. Investing to me is the mental model is buying something and I never intend to sell it. Longer term. So, so it's sort of like accumulating assets and you intend to, to have them only grow. Trading is I'm going to move in and out because I see an opportunity. And that opportunity might not exist in one day or three months. But there's like a very particular thesis that I have that's time bound and systematic and, I think gambling is, I think gambling is like, mostly emotional, driven.
代币化资产的技术架构
Tracy Alloway: 在欧洲,如果有人买了一个名为“OpenAI Token”的东西,他们到底得到了什么?是有真实的股权支撑,还是仅仅是你们赎回代币的承诺?
Original English
Tracy Alloway: But like I said, Europe or U.S, if someone buys something that on the Robinhood platform is called an OpenAI token. Yeah. What are they getting? Is it is there do you have equity that has been like backing it? Is it a sort of swap where the only thing backing it is your promise to like redeem the token at some price? Like what does the what what is the token.
Vlad Tenev: 技术上这有点像稳定币 (Stablecoin)。你有一袋由传统规则和法律契约管理的传统资产,然后针对这些资产进行代币的铸造和销毁。在欧洲,目前这是一种衍生产品,股权持有人通常是在一个特殊目的载体 (SPV) 中。我们正在努力推出 V2 和 V3 版本,以解决用户担心的透明度和破产隔离等问题。
Original English
Vlad Tenev: So yeah. Technically the way this works is it's kind of similar to a stablecoin. Yeah. So you have your bag of traditional assets that are governed by traditional rules and legal covenants and whatnot here. And then you mint and burn tokens against that. But yeah, as of now in Europe, it's a derivative, derivative product.
私募市场的流动性与准入门槛
Joe Weisenthal: 与其费力开发这些复杂的金融产品,游说监管机构取消过时的“合格投资者”规则不是更简单吗?
Original English
Joe Weisenthal: But on the other hand, it seems like so much work. Would it not just be simpler to try to lobby for the accredited investor rules to actually be changed?
Vlad Tenev: 我们也在做这件事。合格投资者规则确实该取消了,它毫无意义。但即使取消了,私募市场还有流动性问题。即便是我,也不想让资金被锁死 10 年。SEC 主席曾明确指出封闭式基金是散户获取私有资产的首选工具。Robinhood 的独特之处在于我们既有零售端,又能争取到优质的私有资产供应。
Original English
Vlad Tenev: Yeah, I think we're doing that as well. I think the accredited investor rule, needs to go. Frankly, it doesn't make any sense. But I don't think that answers all of the problems that people have with private market investing. The other problem is just liquidity. Chairman Adkins of the SEC actually specifically called out closed that funds as the preferred vehicle for having access to private.
利益冲突与逆向选择
Joe Weisenthal: 传统的风险投资目标是赚钱,而 RVI 里的公司名字都很“性感”。我为什么不该认为这个组合是为了吸引散户关注而优化的,而不是为了最优回报?
Original English
Joe Weisenthal: It seems to me like, okay, the traditional VC fund, like you're going to optimize for making the most money, the best returns, including names that no one has ever heard of. Why should I not think that Robin Hood's portfolio has been optimized for retail awareness?
Vlad Tenev: 首先,我们的业绩是完全透明的,我们要履行信托义务 (Fiduciary Obligation)。你担心的其实是逆向选择 (Adverse Selection):是不是只有那些急需钱的公司才会分给散户额度?事实恰恰相反,我们进入的都是竞争极其激烈的项目,我们必须努力争取配额。
Original English
Vlad Tenev: Well, I mean, first of all, we are incented to make this firm, perform well, right? The returns will just be out there. And, you know, we have a fiduciary obligation. I think the biggest worry that you have with things like this is actually adverse selection, right? Is are you just going to get into the deals of the companies that, need the money and are desperate for.
物理性与品牌忠诚:Robinhood 信用卡
Vlad Tenev: 我们推出了全新的 Robinhood 金色信用卡。它是目前市场上最安全的信用卡,卡面上没有卡号。它的重量是市场上最重的,甚至超过了我们之前的金卡。
Original English
Vlad Tenev: It's the most secure credit card on the market. Your number is not on it. Oh. All right. Oh, that is legit. I got the heaviest card on the market. Beats out the Robinhood gold.
Vlad Tenev: 现在的物理卡片更多是一种时尚配饰,一种奢侈品。这就像是对加密货币那种虚幻感的一种回应——你想要一些触手可及、分量十足的东西。我们甚至考虑过为加密用户推出钨制信用卡 (Tungsten Card)。
Original English
Vlad Tenev: It's a fashion accessory. It's a luxury. Good. And I don't know if the credit card industry is really has really evolved I think the same degree it iPhone. I keep telling, Deepak that a tungsten card for crypto people would be cool.
总结:万物金融化的未来
Joe Weisenthal: 现在的趋势似乎是万物代币化,允许针对任何事物建立市场。这让我感到有些反乌托邦。人们开始赌博式的进行二元博弈,金融系统正在发生某种位移。
Original English
Joe Weisenthal: So I mean, it does feel like the I guess the trajectory of history right now is marching towards tokenizing everything and just allowing markets in everything and everything and everything. But the other thing I've been thinking of is, you know, we used to hear of markets described as, you know, there were upsides to capitalism, right? Like you're supposed to be efficiently allocating money.
Tracy Alloway: 以前人们谈论资本主义是关于有效分配资金,现在更多是关于“安全撤退”和资产博弈。另一个隐忧是,美国资本市场的优势在于透明的信息披露。随着私有资产交易占比增加,投资者获取信息的透明度可能会大幅下降,这在未来可能会让我们后悔。
Original English
Tracy Alloway: And it's going to increasingly sort of like be taken over by tradable instruments for which investors really do not have the same level of information at all. And the expectation that an investor would like be able to know the share count of a thing they're buying, or would be able to know the earnings or the margins of the thing they're buying, like that's going away.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Vlad Tenev
公司/组织: Robinhood, OpenAI, SpaceX, SEC, Kalshi, PolyMarket
产品/模型: Robinhood Ventures Fund 1, Robinhood Gold Card
媒体/书籍: Odd Lots Podcast