会议背景与会前预期
朋友们好。今天是10月28日，这是我的市场——呃，实际上不是，这是我对10月FOMC会议的简要复盘。好的，我刚刚看完了FOMC的新闻发布会，我觉得这是一场不错的新闻发布会。嗯，我刚开始抱的期望比较低，以为会非常无聊且简短，但这确实是一场很不错的新闻发布会。现在，在我们深入了解发生了什么之前，我们先统一一下认知背景。美联储上一次开会是在9月，那是一次非常令人激动的会议。美联储加了息，并通过点阵图传达了未来还会进行更多次加息的信号。所以基本上，美联储开启了一个小型的加息周期。从那时到现在，我们迎来了火热的通胀数据，同时债券市场的表现也极为糟糕。大家回想一下，10年期美债收益率曾突破了5.3%，30年期收益率超过了5.7%，不过过去两周它们已经大幅回落了。
英文原文
Hello my friends. So today is October 28th and this is my markets uh actually no this is my October FOMC debrief. Okay so I just finished watching the FOMC conference and I thought that it was a good presser. Um I came in with low expectations thinking that it would be very boring and short but it was it was a good presser. Now before we go into what happened let's level set. So the last time the Fed had a meeting was in September and it was a very exciting meeting. The Fed hiked rates and through their dot plots telegraphed for more rate hikes. So basically the Fed began a mini hiking cycle. Now between then and now we've had hot inflation data and we've also had the bond market that has behaved very poorly. Now, recall the 10-year yield got over 5.3%. 30-year yield over 5.7% although they have come down a lot the past two weeks.在进入本次会议之前，市场并没有预期会有任何动作。原因当然是美联储官员们此前非常明确地释放了信号，表明他们在本次会议上什么都不会做。威廉姆斯行长、杰斐逊副主席基本都表示过，你们懂的，我们可以先保持观望。在步入本次会议的当下，市场已经计入了12月加息一次、3月再加息一次、6月再加息一次的预期。所以基本上是以按季度推进的节奏再加息三次。因此，在市场已经消化了所有这些预期，而且美联储也普遍被预期不会有所作为的情况下，我原本以为这会是一次乏味的会议，但实际上它很有帮助。
英文原文
Now, heading into this meeting, the market was not expecting anything. The reason being, of course, is that the Fed officials have very strongly telegraphed that they're not going to do anything this meeting. You had President Williams, you had Vice Chair Jefferson basically saying that, you know, we can just kind of wait and see. At the moment heading into the meeting, the market priced in a rate hike in December, another hike in March and another hike in June. So basically three more hikes on a quarterly cadence. So with all this in the market and of course Fed the Fed largely expected to do nothing, I thought this would be an boring meeting but actually it was helpful.FOMC声明与两位委员的异议
那么我认为非常值得关注的第一点，是我们得到了关于沃什主席如何看待金融状况的最新信息。请记住，呃，这是美联储试图影响通胀的方式。噢，实际上我们先退回一小步，看一下FOMC声明，你基本上可以看到：对经济的评估非常强劲，他用来描述经济的言辞有所升级；生产率强劲——这非常不符合事实，与任何数据都不一致，又是一套带有宣传色彩的、类似特朗普风格的措辞；最后，再次重申通胀太高，这一点他之前已经说过很多次了。然而声明中颇有意思的是，我们看到了两票异议。
英文原文
So the first thing that I thought was very noteworthy is that we got an update as to how Chair Wars is thinking about financial conditions. Remember uh this is how the Fed tries to impact inflation. Oh actually let's let's take just a small stick back looking at the FOMC statement you can see basically assessment economy very strong kind of upgraded the language he uses to describe it productivity strong which is very not true not consistent with any data again more of this prop propagandistic kind of Trumpian language and lastly again reemphasizing inflation is u is too high which he's already said many times what was interesting in the statement though is that we got two descents一票来自哈马克行长。他一贯是鹰派，当然，这不足为奇。有趣的是，我们还看到了一票来自库克理事的异议。我相信这是她有史以来第一次提出异议。请回想一下，总统对她的抵押贷款文件非常关注，并准备就此举行听证会。所以，这是他一直以来都在借此打扰库克理事的事情。因此，如果她对总统有些不悦，我认为这是可以理解的。无论如何，由于这两票异议的存在，这是一个比预期更为鹰派的结果。
英文原文
one from President Hammock. Always a hawk. Of course, nothing to see there. Interestingly, we also got a descent from Governor Cook. I believe it's the first time she has ever dissented. And recall the president is very interested in her mortgage documents and is set to have a hearing um about this soon. So, it's something that she he has consistently kind of bothered uh Governor Cook about this. So, you know, if she was kind of upset about the president, I think that is understandable. In any case, because of these two descents, this is a hawkish more hawkish than expected outcome.金融状况评估与加息倾向
好的。现在转入新闻发布会的实质内容。那么，再次回到美联储如何看待金融状况这一问题上，对吧？如果你面对的是过高的通胀，你想要做的就是通过加息来收紧金融状况。所以，这算是一种，你知道的，一种玄学，非常模糊，在评估到底必须把利率升到多高才能达到紧缩的金融状况时，带有很大的主观性。这里面有各种各样的方法。你可以当个聪明人，直接观察市场上的表现；你也可以当个没那么聪明的人，去建一个模型。但无论如何，美联储如何界定金融状况是非常重要的，因为这能大致告诉你他们还要加息多少，或者他们到底还会不会加息。请回忆一下，上一次沃什主席谈到这个问题时，他说金融状况并不具有限制性。这就是他加息的原因。在沃什主席之前，我们经历的是鲍威尔主席时期，当时美联储的大多数人都认为金融状况已经具有限制性了，因此他们没有加息。
英文原文
Okay. Now, moving on to the substance of the presser. So, again, moving back to how the Fed looks at this financial conditions, right? So, if you have inflation that's too high, what you want to do is you want to tighten financial conditions by hiking rates. So, it's kind of a, you know, kind of a dark art, very uh vague, somewhat super subjective as to how high you have to raise rates to get to uh tight financial conditions. Now, there's various ways of doing this. You can be a smart person and just look at what's happening in the markets. You can be a less smart person and build a model. But in any case, how the Fed characterizes financial conditions is really important because that's kind of tells you how far they're going to hike or if they're going to hike at all. Now remember last time when Chair Walsh was talking about this, he didn't he said that financial conditions were not restrictive. That's why he's hiking. Now before Cher Walsh, we had Sher Powell and at that time most people on the Fed were thinking that financial conditions were restrictive and so they weren't hiking.沃什主席不这么认为，因此他开始加息了。那么，在上次加息之后，在市场计入了更多次加息预期之后，他今天对金融状况又是如何看待的呢？我们来听听他本人的说法。
英文原文
Chair Wars doesn't think so and so he's began to hike. Now after hiking last time, after the market pricing and more hikes, how does he think about financial conditions today? Let's hear it from him.“尽管整体金融状况有所收紧，但我既不愿也无法称其为紧缩。”
英文原文
>> And while overall financial conditions are tighter, I'm unwilling and unable to call them tight.所以你看，非常明确，他继续释放出鹰派信号。金融状况已经收紧，但它们并不紧缩。这直接告诉大家，他希望继续加息。而且这也反映在市场定价中。嗯，大家知道，也许市场计入了过多的加息，也许市场计入的加息还不够，我们不得而知，他是不会告诉我们的。呃，但非常明确的是，他依然处于加息模式中。
英文原文
>> So again, very clear continues to sound a hawkish signal. Financial conditions have are have tightened, but they are not tight. That tells you straight up that he wants to continue to hike. And that's in the market price. And um you know, maybe the market is pricing in too many hikes, maybe the market is not pricing in enough hikes. We don't know. He's not going to tell us. Uh but it's very clear that he's still in hiking mode.会议日程结构重大调整
现在，第二件真正有趣的事情——这也是我完全没有预料到的——是他正在对美联储的会议日程做一些调整。通常美联储一年开八次会。他们并非必须开满全部八次，也可以减少会议次数，呃，但在目前的运作模式下，并不强制一定要开满全部八次。大家现在都知道沃什主席并不喜欢开很多会，他甚至不喜欢多说话。因此外界一直有猜测认为他会把会议次数削减到法定最低限度。我记得那大概是四次左右。
英文原文
Now, the second thing that was really interesting, and I did not expect this at all, is that he's changing the calendar a little bit for Fed meetings. Now, the Fed has eight meetings a year. doesn't have to have the full eight. They can have fewer meetings. Uh but they don't have to have the full eight as we're operating today. Now, we all know that chair wars doesn't like to have uh a lot of meetings. Doesn't even like to talk a lot. So, there's always some speculation that he would cut down on the number of meetings to the legal minimum. I I believe that's like four or or something like that.然而，他告诉大家，他并不打算减少会议的总次数，但他要改变会议的实质内容。也就是说，明年依然会像今年一样举行八次会议，但其中只有七次会是决策会议（live meetings）。其中一次会议他将用来探讨货币政策策略之类的事情。因此，那将是一次预计不会调整利率的会议，他们只是要讨论一些更宏观层面的议题。不仅如此，在2028年，他认为、或者说他建议届时将只保留六次决策会议，并留出两次会议来讨论其他事项。所以再次强调，这是在缩减美联储可以采取行动的窗口机会。当然，他随时可以改变这一点，也可以进行跨会议期间的加息，这种情况偶尔会发生，但通常只在紧急状态下出现。因此，通过这种缩窄行动窗口的做法，我认为这在短期利率市场引发了一些混乱，因为现在你必须去弄清楚——嗯，我想由于不再能假定每次会议都会付诸决策，市场对美联储政策预期的定价将会变得更加崎岖。
英文原文
However, he's telling people that he's not going to cut down on the number of meetings, but he's going to change the substance of meetings. So, next year there's going to be eight meetings as there is this year, but only seven of them will be live meetings. One of them that he'll talk about monetary policy strategies and stuff like that. So, it it's a meeting where he's not expected to move interest rates. They're just going to talk about bigger picture stuff. And furthermore, in 2028, he thinks that he's suggesting there's just going to be six life meetings and there'll be two meetings where they talk about other stuff. So again, that is reducing the opportunity window where the Fed can act. Again, again, he can also change this. He can do intermedating hikes, intermed that that happens sometimes, but usually only in emergencies. So by kind of shrinking the window of action, I think that is causing some havoc in the short-term interest rates markets because now you kind of have to try to figure out um you know it's going to be I guess a little bit more jagged in how markets price expectation and fit policy since not every meeting can be presumed to be live.本次美联储会议上有意思的市场价格走势之一，是短端利率实际上受到了买盘追捧，前端利率走低，而长端利率实际上出现抛售，基本上呈现出曲线陡峭化的走势。从会议的实质内容来看，我不觉得他态度偏向鸽派，在我看来他是相当鹰派的。然而，有可能是这种会议结构的改变让交易短期利率期货的人有些恐慌，因为这确实在改变他们排列时序的方式。所以这也许属于一些暂时的错配，明天和接下来的几天里可能还会发生变化。
英文原文
Um one of the interesting market price actions in uh this Fed meeting is that you actually have the front-end bid. So front end interest rates come down and you actually have a sell-off in the long end. So basically u steepening of the curve. Looking at the substance it doesn't seem to me that he was you know dovish. He seemed pretty hawkish to me. However, it could be that this changing in the structure of meetings is making the people who trade short-term interest rate futures a little bit panicky because it's really kind of changing how they sequence things. So maybe that's some temporary disallocations that that may change uh tomorrow and in the coming days.通胀动因与高利率对AI及地产的影响
现在，我认为相当有意思的第三点，是他如何看待更高利率所带来的冲击。按照美联储的视角，通胀高于预期主要归因于三件事：其一当然是关税上调推高了物价，这在很大程度上已经传导到了系统中；其二自然是能源价格，对此我们真的无能为力，而且可能还会恶化，《华尔街日报》今天刊登了一篇严峻的新闻报道，称针对伊朗的袭击可能会在中期选举后的下周恢复；而最后一件事则是相对更在美联储掌控之内的，那就是由于AI建设潮所引发的需求冲击。许多人此前一直声称，大家知道的，这个AI领域无所谓，它们不在乎利率，因为这是一个如此了不起的事物，无论付出多大代价他们都会去建设。现在，沃什实际上用了一段精彩的表述专门讨论了这一点。我们现在来听一听，请听录音。
英文原文
Now the third thing that I thought was pretty interesting is how he's perceiving uh the impact of higher interest rates. So inflation is higher than expectations primarily according to the Fed from their perspective primarily due to three things. One of course is tariffs uh hiking making prices higher that's largely through the system. The second of course is energy prices which you know we don't can't can't really do much about maybe could get worse. Wall Street Journal today has a tough news story saying that maybe attacks on Iran will resume next week after the midterms. And the last thing though is something that is more within the control of the Fed and that is a demand shock due to the AI buildouts. Now many people have been saying that you know this AI stuff it doesn't matter. They don't care about interest rates because, you know, it's just such an awesome thing that they will pay whatever it takes to build it out. Now, Walsh actually has a nice segment discussing this right now. Let's listen to this. Take a listen.“在相当长的一段时间里存在着一种论调，甚至在过去几场新闻发布会中这个房间里也出现过：好吧，他们打算加息或者在讨论加息，但这不会对AI产生任何影响，因为投资者预期的回报率截然不同。嗯，我对此观点一直持怀疑态度。利率具有无孔不入的渗透性。利率直接或间接地几乎影响到所有事物。自9月初以来我们看到了什么？我们在科技产业集群内部看到了什么，在科技产业集群之外又看到了什么——至于你们习惯念成AI还是SI，克莱尔，这随你。嗯，你们看到了什么？利率已经产生了影响。你们看到市场参与者正在对他们想要进行的投资类型加以区别对待。你们看到某些资产的信用利差在扩大、在走阔。而对于另一些资产，你们看到金融状况出现了一定程度的收紧，但还不算显著。因此，回到你问题的核心，关于新技术和这股投资热潮，利率到底重不重要？我相信是重要的。”
英文原文
>> There was a narrative for quite a while, maybe even in this room over the course of the last several press conferences. Well, they're going to raise rates or talking about raising rates, but it's not going to have any effect on AI because the returns that investors are expecting are so different. Um I was skeptical of that view. Interest rates get in the cracks. Interest rates affect directly or indirectly um almost everything. And what have we seen uh since early September? what we've seen inside of the uh technology complex uh outside of the technology complex. Um whether you pronounce it AI or SI Claire is up to you. Um what have you seen? Interest rates have had an effect. You see market participants that are discriminating between the kinds of investments they want to make. You've seen credit spreads for certain assets widen out, gap out. For others, you've seen some tightening in financial conditions, but not significantly. So, on the thrust of your question of uh with respect to the new technology and this investment surge, do interest rates matter? I believe they do.所以，他基本上说的就是利率实际上正在发挥作用，而且他说得没错。在过去几周里，我们再次看到像Neo clouds这类资产交易表现极差，其股票暴跌，融资成本当然也在攀升。这部分是因为投资者对其商业模式的可行性越发担忧，但更高的利率当然也起到了作用，特别是当10年期美债收益率在5.3%上方徘徊的时候。而且它显然正在对诸如商业地产之类的市场产生冲击，商业地产的资本化率正在走高，这正在引发商业地产市场某些细分领域的困境。因此利率确实在起作用，而且看起来他们还有更多工作要做。所以在现在到12月之间，美联储目前的说法是，他们打算在行动之前先等待获取更多信息。我推测，如果AI交易出现崩塌并引发股市大幅回调，我们在12月可能就不会加息；但如果排除这种情况，看来我们很可能会在12月加息，对吧？好的，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。非常感谢大家收看，我周六会再回来。