专访沃旭能源CEO:海上风电重塑之路与美国的停工风波 Norges Bank Investment Management 2026-08-19

美国的“停工令”与周五夜惊魂

拉斯穆斯: 然后我接到了我们总法律顾问的电话,我已经和他共事了十年。说实话,我看着手机,然后我又把它放下了……

Original English

Rasmus: And then I get a phone call from our general counsel that I have worked with for a decade. To be honest, I look at the phone and then I actually put it down again...

尼古拉: 因为他给你打了电话,然后又响了。

Original English

Nicolai: Because he had called you, and then rang again.

拉斯穆斯: 是的,没错。然后他给我发了一条短信说:‘拉斯穆斯,你可能还是给我回个电话吧。’ 然后在不到10分钟的时间里,我们就收到了所谓的‘停工令’。这实际上只是一页纸,命令你停止在美国的一个项目的建设,而该项目当时已经完成了80%。

Original English

Rasmus: Yeah, exactly. Then he sent me a text and said, 'Rasmus, you should probably just give me a call.' And then within less than 10 minutes, we received what is called a stop work order, which is effectively a one-pager that orders you to stop the construction of a project in the US that at the time was 80% done.

尼古拉: 那太极端了,而且出乎意料。

Original English

Nicolai: That was pretty extreme, and unexpected.

开场与嘉宾介绍

尼古拉: 大家好,我是尼古拉·唐根,挪威主权财富基金的首席执行官。今天,我与来自奥斯陆的拉斯穆斯(沃旭能源CEO)进行直播连线,他是全球最大的海上风电公司的首席执行官。沃旭能源曾是一家丹麦石油和天然气公司,后来出售了其化石燃料业务,并围绕海上风电重塑了自己。热烈欢迎你,拉斯穆斯。

Original English

Nicolai: Hi everybody, I'm Nicolai Tangen, the CEO of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund, and today I'm joined live from Oslo by Rasmus, the CEO of the largest offshore wind company in the world. Ørsted used to be a Danish oil and gas company, sold its fossil fuel business and rebuilt itself around offshore wind. Warm welcome, Rasmus.

拉斯穆斯: 非常感谢你,尼古拉。我很高兴来到这里。

Original English

Rasmus: Thank you very much, Nicolai. I'm very happy to be here.

丹麦温德比与海上风电的起点

尼古拉: 现在,先给我讲讲起点吧。大约35年前,你们在丹麦海岸附近建造了一些风力发电机。这是怎么回事?

Original English

Nicolai: Now, just tell me about the start. So like 35 years ago you built some turbines off the Danish coast. How come?

拉斯穆斯: 是的。首先,我在公司工作了大约14年,所以显然我不能把整个发展历程的功劳都归于自己。但你是对的,大约35年前,世界上第一台海上风力发电机在丹麦一个叫温德比的地方建成。

Original English

Rasmus: Yeah. So first of all, I've been with the company for 14 years or so, so I cannot take credit obviously for the entire journey. But you are right that roughly 35 years ago the first offshore wind turbine in the world was set up in Denmark in a place called Vindeby.

尼古拉: 那为什么一家石油和天然气公司会开始建造风力发电机呢?

Original English

Nicolai: And why did an oil and gas company start to build wind turbines?

拉斯穆斯: 沃旭能源(Ørsted)基本上是在2006年通过合并成立的。所以这发生了——在当时这只是公司的一部分。但从2006年开始发生的事情是,那是我们从一家化石燃料密集型公司转型为今天全球海上风电领头羊的旅程起点。所以,这确实是转型的开始。

Original English

Rasmus: Ørsted was basically founded as a merger, if you will, in 2006. So this happened—this was only part of the company back in the days. But what happened from 2006 onwards was that that was the start of this journey from being a fossil-intensive company into becoming the global leader of offshore wind today. So that is really where the transformation started.

尼古拉: 但风能普遍兴起花了很多时间,对吧?为什么这项技术在很长一段时间内都如此昂贵?

Original English

Nicolai: But it took a long time before wind power generally took off, right? Why was that technology so expensive for such a long time?

拉斯穆斯: 是的。即使在今天,如果你从欧洲能源系统的整体来看,海上风电在很多方面仍然可以说是分众(niche)行业。我认为今天欧洲大约安装了38吉瓦。所以当然,建立一个行业是需要时间的。但特别是在2015年到2020年之间,在那些年里,我们真正开始看到创新和工业化的发生,成本也开始下降。

Original English

Rasmus: Yeah. Even today, offshore wind is still in many ways, you can say, a niche industry if you look at it in the totality of the energy system in Europe. I think there is today 38 gigawatts or something installed in Europe. So of course, it takes time when you build up an industry. But especially from the years from 2015 to 2020, those were years where we were really starting to see innovation and industrialization starting to happen, and also costs starting to come down.

丹麦如何成为风电超级大国

尼古拉: 为什么丹麦会成为这个领域的超级大国——在被中国超越之前,你们规模庞大且占绝对主导地位,无论是在运营端还是在发电机建造方面?

Original English

Nicolai: How come Denmark became the kind of superpower here, which you were until China took over, but you were very big and very dominant both as an operator but also in terms of constructing these turbines?

拉斯穆斯: 我认为这是几件事的结合。我认为对于像我们这样的行业来说,重要的一是预测性,二是能够从政治和行业的角度进行长期思考。所以,我认为从一开始,丹麦就对海上风电做出了这种承诺并具有远见。

Original English

Rasmus: I think it's a combination of several things. I think what is important for an industry like ours is predictability and the ability to think long term, both politically but also from an industry perspective. So I think all the way from the beginning, Denmark has had that commitment and foresight to offshore wind.

拉斯穆斯: 这是一个相对稳定的政治环境。政策框架——虽然显然一路上也有颠簸——但几十年来一直相对稳健。

Original English

Rasmus: It is a relatively stable political environment. The framework—there have been bumps on the road clearly—but the framework has been relatively robust for decades.

拉斯穆斯: 而且,当时这个行业也准备好了。我们是一个拥有海岸线的国家,你们今天看到了投资者,也看到了今天的我们。所以,当时有一个蓬勃发展的行业准备与政府合作。

Original English

Rasmus: And then also the industry was ready for it. We are a country with coasts, and you have investors today, you have us today. So there was this burgeoning industry ready to work with the government.

尼古拉: 我是说,你们有海岸线,但挪威也有,对吧?挪威有海岸线。

Original English

Nicolai: Well, I mean, you've got a coast, but so does Norway, right? You do.

拉斯穆斯: 确实。很长的一条海岸线,而且风力资源非常丰富。

Original English

Rasmus: For sure. A long one and a lot of wind.

尼古拉: 所以当你看着挪威时,你对风力发电有什么看法?

Original English

Nicolai: And so when you look at Norway, what are your reflections when it comes to wind power?

拉斯穆斯: 如果你把视野拉高一点来看欧洲,这是我们的核心区域,毫无疑问,欧洲海上风电潜力巨大。我们可以对此展开谈很多。如果你看挪威这里,挑战主要在于如何获得一个好的起点。例如,大多数地方的海底深度都相当深。所以这里非常依赖漂浮式风电,而漂浮式风电目前仍处于早期阶段。因此,在挪威以及许多其他国家,你仍然需要针对近海固定式海上风电的标准化方法。

Original English

Rasmus: If you look at it, if you lift it up just one notch and look at Europe, which is our core region, there is no doubt that there is a massive potential for offshore wind in Europe. We can talk much more about that. If you look at it here in Norway, the challenge has been to get it off to a good start. As an example, the seabed depth is relatively significant in most places. So it's very much floating wind, and floating is still in its early days. So you kind of need that standardized approach to also bottom-fixed offshore wind in Norway and in many other countries.

尼古拉: 那陆上呢,像他们做的那样?

Original English

Nicolai: What about land, like they do?

拉斯穆斯: 陆上对挪威来说显然是一个机会。我们的重点是海上风电。我们出售了我们在欧洲的陆上业务,但从我的角度来看,我看到了挪威的重大机遇。

Original English

Rasmus: Land is clearly an opportunity for Norway. Our focus is on offshore wind. We sold our European onshore business, but from my perspective, I see a significant opportunity for Norway.

剥离油气业务与绿色转型决策

尼古拉: 在2017年,你们卖掉了石油和天然气业务。为什么?

Original English

Nicolai: Now, in 2017, you sold your oil and gas business. How come?

拉斯穆斯: 在2012、2013年,我们从化石能源密集型公司转变为今天这样的公司的过程真正开始启动。我们基本上看到了海上风电领域的巨大机遇。最初几年的基础是在英国,因此我们基本上审视了我们拥有的整个业务版图。

Original English

Rasmus: In 2012, 2013, our transformation from being a fossil-intensive company into becoming what we are today really started to kick off. We basically saw a very significant opportunity within offshore wind. The basis in the first years was in the UK in particular, so we basically looked at the entire footprint we had.

尼古拉: 但这是某种麦肯锡报告决定的吗?

Original English

Nicolai: But was this some kind of McKinsey report that decided this?

拉斯穆斯: 完全不是。我是在2012年加入公司的。我在当时的首席执行官亨里克·波尔森(Henrik Poulsen)入职前一个月加入。我是法务部最年轻的员工,所以我不能对当时做出的决策邀功。但我对我们转型的理解是,这很大程度上只是一个看清事实的问题。

Original English

Rasmus: Not at all. I joined the company in 2012. I joined one month before the then CEO Henrik Poulsen. I was the youngest employee in the legal department, so I can take no credit for the decisions that were made. But the way I think about our transformation is very much a question of just looking at the facts.

尼古拉: 只是看着欧洲关于气候变化的事实吗?

Original English

Nicolai: Just looking at the facts for Europe on climate change?

拉斯穆斯: 是的。管理层做出了两到三个非常大胆的战略决定。第一,也是最核心的驱动力,是根据事实进行转型,看到机遇,然后付诸执行。沃旭能源的转型基本上是一个关于执行的故事——执行、执行、再执行,不仅仅是口头上说说,而是改变公司的核心。在那些年里,这一切就已经开始发生了,接着我们在2017年出售了我们的石油和天然气业务。

Original English

Rasmus: Yes. The management took, I would say, two or three very bold strategic decisions. One, and the key driver, was to pivot based on the facts, see the opportunity, and then execute it. The transformation of Ørsted is basically a story around execution—execution, execution, not just talking, but changing the core of your company. That is what started to happen already in those years, and then we sold our oil and gas business in 2017.

成本过山车与风电行业的调整期

尼古拉: 在很长一段时间里,海上风电看起来都很棒,对吧?装机容量在增加,价格在下降,等等。但接着在2022年,有些事情发生了。

Original English

Nicolai: And for a long time offshore wind looked fantastic, right? Capacity increasing, prices coming down and so on. But then in 2022, something happened.

拉斯穆斯: 绝对是这样。实际上,我会把那个时间点再往前推一点。从2015年到2020年,你基本上看到了海上风电成本下降的完美条件。我们看到所谓的平准化度电成本(LCOE)在2015年到2020年之间下降了大约70%。而从2020年到2025年,我们又看到LCOE上涨了大约50%。

Original English

Rasmus: Absolutely. I would actually move that point in time even further back. From 2015 to 2020, you basically saw perfect conditions for the cost out of offshore wind. We saw what we call, LCOE (levelized cost of electricity) go down by roughly 70% from 2015 to 2020. From 2020 to 2025, we have seen LCOE going up again by roughly 50%.

尼古拉: 而这正是你看到许多流标招标的时期——即中标了但没有建造的风电场。这基本上就是整个行业面临的挑战性调整(reset)。现在看起来我们似乎走到了另一边,海上风电的经济效益开始稳定下来。

Original English

Nicolai: And that's really in that period of time where you have seen a lot of failed tenders—wind farms that have been won but have not been built. And it is basically that reset that has been a bit of a challenge for the industry. Now it seems as if we are on the other side and we are starting to see the economics of offshore wind stabilize.

拉斯穆斯: 在迎来我所期待的又一次成本下降之前。但当时人们低估了什么?因为其他参与者也需要进行巨额的资产减记。

Original English

Rasmus: Before what I expect will be a cost out again. But what was it that people underestimated at the time? Because other players also needed to take big write-downs.

尼古拉: 仅仅是因为通货膨胀吗?利率?到底是什么原因?

Original English

Nicolai: Was it just inflation? Interest rates? What was it?

拉斯穆斯: 所以我想,首先,在我们的背景下思考时,区分美国和欧洲是很重要的。虽然我们在欧洲退出了部分招标、没有参与某些竞标,但一直以来,尽管价格出现飙升,我们实际上在欧洲交付了我们核心的海上风电业务。美国对我们来说是另一个故事,那才是我们出现资产减记的地方,我们可以聊这个,但做出这一区分非常关键。

Original English

Rasmus: So I think, first of all, if you think about it in the context of us, it's important to differentiate between the US and Europe. While we have stepped away from tenders and not participated in tenders in Europe, all along we have actually delivered on our core business on offshore wind in Europe despite these spikes in pricing. The US is a different story for us, and that is really where we have seen the write-downs that we can talk about, but it's important to make that distinction.

尼古拉: 确实如此。我们稍后会回到美国的话题。但当你回顾你们做出的假设和预测时,看到事情的发展与预期如此不同,你有什么感受?

Original English

Nicolai: Absolutely. But we'll come back to the US. But just when you look at the assumptions you made and the projections and so on, how does it feel to see it playing out so differently than what was expected?

拉斯穆斯: 是的。在那些年里,推高LCOE的关键因素包括:一是利率开始上升;二是供应链成本开始增加;三是欧洲的招标框架发生了改变,欧洲有点成了尝试不同海上风电招标方式的‘测试实验室’。如果再结合一段时间内石油和天然气公司表现出进入该领域的极大兴趣,你就面临了一个我认为并不健康的竞争环境。

Original English

Rasmus: Yeah. The key things that drove LCOE up again in those years were, of course, interest rates starting to go up, supply chain costs starting to increase, and also the tender frameworks changing in Europe, which became a bit of a test lab for different ways to tender out offshore wind. If you combine that with a period of time where you also saw significant interest from oil and gas companies coming in, then you had what I would say was a competitive environment that was not healthy.

停工令危机与80亿欧元增资内幕

尼古拉: 让我们谈谈美国。2025年8月,你担任首席执行官已有6个月,突然接到了来自美国的电话。那是怎么回事?

Original English

Nicolai: Let's go to the US. So August 2025, you've been CEO for 6 months, and then suddenly you get a call from the US. What was that about?

拉斯穆斯: 是的。8月22日是我余生都会铭记的日子之一。那是肯定的。顺便说一下,在2025年我有很多个这样的日子。那是周五晚上9点左右,我正和我的三个儿子之一坐在沙发上看电视,在经历了一个漫长的一周以及一个相对紧张的夏天后稍微喘口气,因为我们在8月11日公布了增资意向——募集80亿欧元的股本。这是有史以来可再生能源领域规模最大的增资,也是北欧地区有史以来最大规模的增资,而这一切都是在一个相当艰难的背景下进行的。

Original English

Rasmus: Yeah. The 22nd of August is one of the days I will remember for the rest of my life. That's for sure. I have quite a few of those by the way for 2025. I sat on a Friday evening around 9:00 PM on the couch with one of my three sons and watched TV, exhaling a little bit after not just a long week, but also a summer that had been relatively intense, because we on the 11th of August came out with our intention to do the capital raise—8 billion euros of equity. Biggest capital raise ever done for renewables, biggest capital raise ever done in the Nordics, all on a pretty tough backdrop.

尼古拉: 由美国的情况所驱动。

Original English

Nicolai: Driven by the US.

拉斯穆斯: 然后我接到了与我共事了十年的总法律顾问的电话。老实说,我看着手机,然后又把它放下了。

Original English

Rasmus: And then I get a phone call from our general counsel that I have worked with for a decade. To be honest, I look at the phone and then I actually put it down again.

尼古拉: 因为他给你打了电话,然后又响了。

Original English

Nicolai: Because he had called you, and then rang again.

拉斯穆斯: 是的,没错。然后他给我发了一条短信说:‘拉斯穆斯,你可能还是给我回个电话吧。’ 然后在不到10分钟的时间里,我们就收到了所谓的‘停工令’。这实际上只是一页纸,命令你停止在美国的一个项目的建设,而该项目当时已经完成了80%。

Original English

Rasmus: Yeah, exactly. Then he sent me a text and said, 'Rasmus, you should probably just give me a call.' And then within less than 10 minutes, we received what is called a stop work order, which is effectively a one-pager that orders you to stop the construction of a project in the US that at the time was 80% done.

尼古拉: 那太极端了,而且出乎意料。

Original English

Nicolai: That was pretty extreme, and unexpected.

拉斯穆斯: 当然,除了项目本身的挑战之外,我们当时还处于增资过程中。所以我们当时知道,我们面临着一个周末,不仅需要处理项目问题——确保我们员工的安全、关闭项目等等——还要确保增资计划在周一早上依然能够完好无损地推进。

Original English

Rasmus: And the challenge, of course, in addition to the project, was that we were in the middle of the capital raise process. So we knew at the time that we had a weekend in front of us where we needed to deal with not only the project—ensuring the safety of our people, the shutdown of the project, all of that—but also making sure that the capital raise was still intact on Monday morning.

尼古拉: 我是说,一个未完工的海上风电项目会让资产变成负债,对吧?

Original English

Nicolai: I mean, an unfinished offshore wind project turns an asset into a liability, right?

拉斯穆斯: 确实如此。用通俗的话来说——如果有任何丹麦听众,他们会知道大贝尔特桥(Storebæltsbroen),这是丹麦连接西兰岛和西兰半岛的最大桥梁之一。对我来说,这有点像建造这座大桥,然后被要求在建造收费站前50米停止施工。你把一切都建好了,但你拿不到现金流。

Original English

Rasmus: It does. The way I think about it just in layman's terms—for if there are any people from Denmark listening, they will know about the Great Belt Bridge (Storebæltsbroen), one of the biggest bridges in Denmark connecting Zealand and Jutland. For me, this is a little bit like building the bridge and then being asked to stop construction 50 meters before you build the paying terminal. You have it all built, but you don't get your cash flow.

起诉美国政府的艰难决断

尼古拉: 所以接着你们起诉了政府。

Original English

Nicolai: So then you sued the government.

拉斯穆斯: 我们确实起诉了。我想是在9月4日。

Original English

Rasmus: We did. On the 4th of September.

尼古拉: 起诉美国政府感觉如何?

Original English

Nicolai: How does it feel to sue the US government?

拉斯穆斯: 这绝不是一个我们可以轻易做出的决定。正如你之前指出的,我当时是一个相对年轻的首席执行官。现在我仍然是。这显然是在8月22日到9月4日期间,我们仔细权衡过的事情。我们分析了显而易见的利弊,但最终当我们审视它时……

Original English

Rasmus: It was not a decision that we took lightly. As you pointed out before, I was a relatively young CEO at the time. I still am. It was something that we obviously carefully thought about in the period between the 22nd of August and the 4th of September. We analyzed the obvious pros and cons, but at the end of the day, when we looked at it...

尼古拉: 好吧,你曾经是个律师,所以你会从各种角度审视问题。

Original English

Nicolai: Well, you were a lawyer, so you looked at all kinds of things.

拉斯穆斯: 是的,但那不是我今天的职位。所以我做的是,确保自己身边有所有合适的人来共同做出这个决定。显然,这也是我们与董事会、大股东等讨论过的事情。最终,我们决定提起诉讼,因为我们只看是非曲直(merits)、事实以及许可证。我们花了七到九年的时间才把许可证拿到手。我们觉得我们有非常充分的理由(strong case)。

Original English

Rasmus: Yeah, but that's not my job title today. So what I did was that I made sure to surround myself with all the right people to take that decision. It was obviously something we also discussed with our board, our owners, and so on. At the end of the day, we decided to file the lawsuit because we just looked at the merits, we looked at the facts, and we looked at the permits. We had spent seven to nine years to get the permits in place. We felt we had a very strong case.

盲目扩张的反思与风险管理重塑

尼古拉: 你们一开始应该参与这个项目吗?

Original English

Nicolai: Should you have been in this project in the first place?

拉斯穆斯: 当然,尼古拉,当你现在回顾,并看到这不仅对那个项目、而且对我们在美国退出的Ocean Wind项目以及我们现在正在建设的Sunrise项目对沃旭能源产生的影响时。毫无疑问,如果没有这些项目,沃旭能源的处境会更好。这是显而易见的。

Original English

Rasmus: Of course, Nicolai, when you look at it now and when you look at the implications on Ørsted of not only that project, but also our Ocean Wind project that we stepped away from in the US, and our Sunrise project that we are constructing now. Of course, Ørsted would have been better off without it. That's pretty obvious.

尼古拉: 那么——如果你要进行自我批评——你认为错误在哪里?

Original English

Nicolai: What was the—if you were to be self-critical—what would you say the mistake was?

拉斯穆斯: 我期盼从我的角度来看,我们应该做的是更早地抽身。如果我回顾那几年——我们在2023年6月举办了资本市场日,当时我们把标准设得很高。我们在当年秋天对美国的Ocean Wind项目进行了资产减记。我们在资本市场日上把目标定得太高了,我们太关注于规模(volume)而不是价值(value),而且当我们看到或者开始看到美国市场的危险信号(writing on the wall)时,我们没有足够快地退出。

Original English

Rasmus: I think the way I look at it, what we should have done is that we should have stepped back sooner. If I look at those years—we had a Capital Markets Day in June 23 where we set the bar high. We took the write-downs on Ocean Wind in the US in the fall of that year. We set the bar too high on the Capital Markets Day, we were too focused on volume rather than value, and then we didn't step away fast enough when we saw, or started to see, the writing on the wall in the US.

尼古拉: 但一般而言,当政府政策可能在下一次大选中发生变化时,你如何规划一个长达30年的项目?因为这在欧洲也可能发生,你认为呢?

Original English

Nicolai: But generally speaking, how can you plan a 30-year project when government policy can change in the next election? Because it can happen in Europe too, you think, or not?

拉斯穆斯: 绝对如此。我不知道我们刚才谈到的那种特殊情况是否会在欧洲发生——我当然不希望发生。但政治不确定性和‘风向转变’(shifting winds)显然是存在的。自接管公司以来,我们也花了很多时间来切实确保我们的风险管理方法,以及应对你所说的这些显而易见的风险的方法,尽可能地稳健。当然,拥有两党对海上风电的共同支持以及我之前提到的监管稳定性的国家是我们更青睐的。但这里面还有很多其他因素。关键在于,你的项目建设和开发方式要让你在任何特定时间都有能力抽身。

Original English

Rasmus: Absolutely. I don't know if that particular situation that we just talked about can happen there—I certainly don't expect that. But political uncertainty and shifting winds, of course, can. We have spent a lot of time also since I took over to really make sure that our approach to risk management, and our approach to managing those obvious risks that you talk about, is as robust as at all possible. Of course, countries where you have bipartisan support for offshore wind and where you have the regulatory stability that I talked about before is something that we prefer. But there are also many other things to it. It's about constructing and developing your projects in a way where you, at any given time, basically can afford to step back.

尼古拉: 所以接着你们募集了大量资金,对吧?一次巨额的增资。你认为这是否存在你们现在变得过于风险厌恶的危险?例如,我看到你们没有赢得丹麦最近的招标。你们现在是否太小心了?

Original English

Nicolai: So then you raised a lot of money, right? A huge capital increase. Do you think there is a danger that you are becoming too risk-averse now? I saw, for instance, that you did not win the latest tender in Denmark. Are you too careful now?

拉斯穆斯: 毫无疑问,这是一个需要警惕的显而易见的偏见。如果仅从我个人的角度来看——当我们进行增资时,你去找你在丹麦的控股股东,也就是国家,向丹麦纳税人申请40亿欧元。丹麦有超过20万名散户投资者。当然,从我的角度来看,这带来了极大的责任感,但也带来了谦逊。基本上,你必须保持谦虚。

Original English

Rasmus: It's an obvious bias to look out for, no doubt about it. If I look at it from my perspective just personally—when we did the capital raise, you go to your majority owner in Denmark, the state, and you ask for 4 billion euros from Danish taxpayers. Denmark has more than 200,000 retail investors. Of course, that comes with a great deal of responsibility but also humility from my perspective. You are humble, basically.

尼古拉: 你觉得自己像是一家国有企业吗?

Original English

Nicolai: Do you feel like a state-owned company?

拉斯穆斯: 我觉得我们就是我们现有的样子,也就是一家由国家持股50%的公司,此外我们还有另外两大股东,以及散户投资者和全球投资者。

Original English

Rasmus: I feel like the company we are, which is a company that is 50% owned by the state, and then we have two other large shareholders, and then we have retail investors and global investors as well.

尼古拉: 当时首相有没有说:‘好吧,我们给你们这笔钱,但别再搞砸了’?

Original English

Nicolai: Was it like the Prime Minister said, 'Okay, we give you the money, but just don't screw up again'?

拉斯穆斯: 没有。丹麦的运作方式是保持‘松紧适度的独立原则’(arms-length principle)。治理结构是我们由董事会运营。但回到你之前关于我们是否面临过于风险厌恶的风险的问题——是的,确实存在这个风险,因为对我来说,向我去年秋天亲眼面对过的所有投资者兑现承诺是极其重要的。这对我来说意义重大。

Original English

Rasmus: No. The way it works in Denmark is the arms-length principle. The governance is that we are run by the board of directors. But back to your question before about whether we are at risk of being too risk-averse—yes, there is a risk, because for me it is incredibly important that we deliver on the commitments to all of the investors that I looked in the eye in the fall last year. That's important to me.

地缘政治与欧洲能源供给危机

尼古拉: 谈谈政治,但这是另一种政治。地缘政治局势确实彻底改变了整个能源格局,对吧?你现在怎么看这个问题?现在的地缘政治局势在多大程度上推动了对可再生能源领域的投资?

Original English

Nicolai: Sticking with politics but a different kind. The geopolitical situation has really changed the whole energy situation, right? How do you look at that now? How much of the geopolitical situation is it that drives investments into the renewable energy sector now?

拉斯穆斯: 我认为这是目前欧洲正在发生的变革的一个非常重要的驱动力。有时感觉好像一次能源危机还不够。我们今年早些时候由于伊朗局势而看到并正在经历的第二次能源危机,真的让每个人最终意识到,欧洲作为一个地区对进口化石燃料的依赖——我们进口了接近4000亿欧元的化石燃料——在长期内是绝对不可持续的。

Original English

Rasmus: I think it's a very significant driver of the change that is happening right now in Europe. It is sometimes as if one energy crisis was not enough. The second one that we saw and are seeing, sparked by the events in Iran earlier in the year, it's really as if that has finally made everybody realize that the dependence that Europe as a region has on imported fossil fuels, where we import close to 400 billion euros of fossil fuels, is simply not sustainable in any way for the long term.

拉斯穆斯: 因此,对我而言,在我于沃旭能源职业生涯的前半段,我们谈论了很多关于气候变化的话题。在气候变化问题上,我的看法没有改变——它是一样的。看看今年夏天的欧洲,一切依然像过去一样紧迫。但现在这不仅仅关乎能源安全,还关乎经济性(affordability)。因为由于这些地缘政治事件,有一点已经变得非常明显:对于未来几十年欧洲的整个能源系统来说,最便宜的解决方案是一个在很大程度上基于可再生能源的系统。

Original English

Rasmus: So therefore, for me, in the first part of my career in Ørsted, we talked a lot about climate change. Nothing has changed for me on climate change—it is the same. Look at Europe this summer, everything is still as urgent as it has been all along. But now it's not only about energy security, it's also about affordability. Because what has become quite evident, also because of these geopolitical events, is that the cheapest solution for the energy system as a whole in Europe for the decades to come is a system that is to a large extent based on renewables.

尼古拉: 你是否感到惊讶没有更多人关注这点?

Original English

Nicolai: Are you surprised there is not more focus on it?

拉斯穆斯: 我很高兴看到现在展现出的紧迫感。以我身边的例子来说:1月26日,九个波罗的海国家在汉堡并肩站在一起,承诺到2050年招标多达300吉瓦的海上风电。目标是一回事——这些年来我见过很多目标——但这次对于‘如何实现’有了更多的明确性。所以对我来说,这是你真正开始看到变革的清晰例子。荷兰、比利时、英国都在进行招标。在这一系列地缘政治变化的背景下,海上风电的势头真的在显现。

Original English

Rasmus: I am pleased to see the urgency that I now see. Take an example from my backyard: on the 26th of January, nine Baltic Sea states stood side-by-side in Hamburg and committed to tendering out up to 300 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2050. One thing is the target—I have seen many targets over the years—but there was also more clarity about the 'how'. So that for me was a clear example where you really start to see change. There are tenders coming in the Netherlands, in Belgium, in the UK. There's really momentum coming for offshore wind on the back also of the geopolitical changes we talked about.

尼古拉: 你是否惊讶于人们现在较少谈论气候了?

Original English

Nicolai: Are you surprised that people are talking less about the climate?

拉斯穆斯: 我其实并不惊讶,因为如果你不以首席执行官的身份、而是以一个拥有三个孩子的父亲的身份来看,经济性(即负担得起)是非常切身的问题。因此,化石燃料进口价格的事实表明,可再生能源是更便宜的解决方案,这开始改变人们的看法。而且我也认为,气候变化依然和过去一样切身相关。

Original English

Rasmus: I'm actually not surprised, because if you look at it not as a CEO but just as a father of three, the affordability point is very close to mind. Therefore, the fact that fossil fuel imports have shown now that renewables are a cheaper solution is starting to change the picture. And I also think that climate change is as relevant as it has been all along.

AI时代的电力爆发式需求

尼古拉: 你认为我们低估了未来的电力需求吗?

Original English

Nicolai: Do you think we underestimate the need for power going forward?

拉斯穆斯: 我认为这取决于‘我们’指的是谁。我的看法是,我看到了一个极有可能发生的情景,即到2050年,欧洲的电力需求将比今天接近翻倍。如果你只看这一个因素,并以人工智能(AI)为例。AI不需要化学分子,它需要的是电子。因此,我认为未来几十年欧洲的电气化需求将是巨大的。

Original English

Rasmus: I think it depends on who 'we' are. My view is that I see a very likely scenario where the demand for electricity in Europe towards 2050 will close to double relative to where it is today. And if you just look at that and take that as a factor, take AI as an example. AI doesn't need molecules, it needs electrons. So I think the electrification demand for Europe is going to be massive in the decades to come.

尼古拉: 如果你能改变一项政治决策以加快这一进程,那会是什么?

Original English

Nicolai: If you could change one political decision to get it moving faster, what would it be?

拉斯穆斯: 好问题。这会是——也许不是做出改变,但真正重要的是政府在可再生能源方面要兑现他们口头表达的意向。这些年来我见过很多意向和目标。如果我之前提到的那九个政府能够兑现他们在汉堡所讨论的承诺,那么我们将处于一个非常好的境地。

Original English

Rasmus: Good question. It would be—maybe it's not a change, but what is really important is that governments deliver on what they say their intentions are when it comes to renewables. I've seen many intentions over the years, many targets. If the nine governments that I talked about before just deliver on what they talked about in Hamburg, then we will be in a very good place.

风电项目的宏伟尺度与实体景观

尼古拉: 海上风电只占全球能源的不到1%。对于像你们这样的公司来说,这是一个足够大的市场吗?

Original English

Nicolai: Offshore wind is less than 1% of global energy. Is that a big enough market for a company like yours?

拉斯穆斯: 绝对是的。我认为当你在谈论海上风电时,有时会对它的宏大规模感到盲目。你听到了很多关于吉瓦数量之类的声明。1吉瓦的海上风电在资本配置方面就相当于300亿到400亿丹麦克朗——仅仅是为了让大家理解这有多大规模。我们在英国正在建设Hornsea 4项目,这是我们目前最大的海上风电项目。它的面积是中央公园的135倍。单台风力发电机的高度超过200米。风机转动一圈产生的电量就能供一个家庭使用24小时。这规模真的极其巨大。

Original English

Rasmus: Absolutely. I think you can sometimes become blind to the magnitude when you talk about offshore wind. You hear a lot of these statements about the number of gigawatts and so on. One gigawatt of offshore wind is 30 to 40 billion Danish kroner in terms of capital allocation—just to understand the magnitude. We have Hornsea 4 in the UK that we are building, that's right now our biggest offshore wind project. It's 135 times Central Park. One turbine is more than 200 meters tall. One turbine rotation will power a family for 24 hours. The scale is really significant.

尼古拉: 是的。

Original English

Nicolai: Yeah.

拉斯穆斯: 而现在我们正在Hornsea 2旁边建设Hornsea 3项目。那里的风力发电机高度接近300米。

Original English

Rasmus: And right now we are constructing Hornsea 3 next to Hornsea 2. There, the turbines are close to 300 meters tall.

风光互补:构建多元清洁能源系统

尼古拉: 但是,现在的趋势难道不是能源供应商能够提供不同类型的能源采购吗?如果你在同一个地方拥有太多的风机,一旦风力强劲,电价就会下跌,对吧?因为供应太多了。

Original English

Nicolai: But isn't the trend for an energy supplier to be able to offer different types of sourcing? If you have too many windmills in the same place, and if there is a lot of wind, electricity prices go down, right? Because there is so much supply.

拉斯穆斯: 100%正确。这确实是非常重要的一点。当你审视能源系统以及海上风电时,你需要把它看作整个能源系统的一部分。当我提到基于可再生能源的系统能让社会成本下降时,前提是假设你拥有太阳能、陆上风电、电池、海上风电,以及在有需求时使用的峰值燃气发电。这样才能提供社会所需的接近基荷(baseload)的电力供应特性。所以,你什么都需要。这不是非此即彼,你全都需要。

Original English

Rasmus: 100%. That's really an important point. When you look at the energy system and you look at offshore wind, you need to see it as part of a total energy system. When I talked about the cost for society going down based on a renewable system, it is assuming that you have solar, you have onshore wind, you have batteries, you have offshore wind, and you also have peak gas for the hours where you need it. And that gives you that closer to a baseload profile that society needs. So you need it all. It's not either-or, you need it all.

尼古拉: 那风能和太阳能相比呢?因为太阳能价格正在急剧下降,对吧?

Original English

Nicolai: But what about wind versus solar? Because solar prices are falling dramatically, right?

拉斯穆斯: 确实。但我认为这个问题背后的前提是二选一。如果你同意我关于电力需求将会上升的观点,甚至不需要翻倍,只要我们假设在未来15年内每年增长1%到2%,你就全都需要。你既需要太阳能,也需要海上风电。海上风电拥有我们刚刚谈到的规模。海上风电具有更高的负荷率(load factor)。正如我之前提到的,它与太阳能是互补的。它距离负荷中心更近,即那些真正需要能源的工业中心。它有很多好处,但最终你还是全部需要。

Original English

Rasmus: Absolutely. But I think the premise behind that question is that there is an either-or. If you agree with me that electricity demand is going to go up, it doesn't even have to double, but let's just assume it's going to go up by 1% to 2% for the next 15 years. You need it all. You need both solar and offshore wind. Offshore wind has the scale that we just talked about. Offshore wind has a higher load factor. It is complementary to solar, as I talked about before. It is closer to the load centers, the industrial centers where you really need the energy. There are so many benefits, but you need it all.

气象建模与40年的风力数据积淀

尼古拉: 一个听起来可能有点幼稚的问题,在我们开始购买风电场之前,我对此也了解不多:风是不是吹得变少了?在英国、在欧洲,是不是风变少了?

Original English

Nicolai: A question which is going to sound a bit naive, and I didn't know much about it until we started to buy wind farms, but is it blowing less? In the UK, in Europe, is there less wind?

拉斯穆斯: 不,不,不是的。

Original English

Rasmus: No, no, no.

尼古拉: 只是因为我们建风机的地方问题吗?我是说,你以前是首席风险官。我对此非常担心,以至于我想我是不是该卖掉我的帆船。

Original English

Nicolai: Is it just where we have the turbines? I mean, you are the risk officer. I was so worried about it, I thought I should sell my sailing boats.

拉斯穆斯: 没有。当然,我们花了很多时间来对此进行建模,几十年来一直如此。从事海上风电将近40年带来的好处之一是,你拥有极其丰富的数据——这些数据多到可以从所有风机上的所有阳极(anodes)中采集。确实有风力好和风力差的年份,毫无疑问,今年我们实际上超过了正常水平。我们详细地模拟了什么是正常风年,我们追踪它,并对此进行沟通,我们没有看到风力变小的趋势。这可能只是一种错觉。

Original English

Rasmus: No. We, of course, spend quite a bit of time modeling this, and we have for decades. One of the things that comes with doing offshore wind for close to 40 years is that you have an abundance of data—so much data that you pick up from all of the anodes on all of the turbines. There are good wind years and bad wind years. No doubt, this year we are actually above the norm. We model in a detailed manner what is a normal wind year, we track it, and we communicate on it, and we don't see a trend where it's blowing less. It might feel so.

尼古拉: 所以你拥有很好的风区,但碰上了发型糟糕的一年。

Original English

Nicolai: So you have a good wind area, but a bad hair year.

拉斯穆斯: 是的。我们也许可以把这段剪掉。

Original English

Rasmus: Yes. We may take that out.

尼古拉: 这由你决定,我说了不算。

Original English

Nicolai: That's for you to decide, that's not for me.

核心竞争壁垒与时间线跨度挑战

尼古拉: 那么,你们凭什么能赢得这场竞争?

Original English

Nicolai: So why are you going to win this race?

拉斯穆斯: 今天,我们是海上风电领域的全球领导者。我们拥有数十年来建立起来的独特能力。从同时拥有石油和天然气业务的公司转变为一家纯粹的可再生能源公司,显然也使这一焦点更加尖锐。我们的组织极其擅长以一种能够减轻风险、且以最佳方式完成的方式来建设风电场。在不到两年的时间里,我们拥有了18吉瓦的海上风电,有超过1500台风机在运转。在枢纽(hubs)和规模方面,你能用这支‘舰队’做的事情显然是一个竞争优势。

Original English

Rasmus: Today, we are the global leader in offshore wind. We have a distinct capability that we have built up over decades, and the transition from being both an oil and gas company into being a pure-play renewables company has obviously also sharpened that focus. We have an organization that is incredibly good at constructing wind farms in a way where risks are mitigated and done in the best possible way. In only less than two years, we have 18 gigawatts of offshore wind, we have more than 1500 turbines spinning. What you can do with that fleet in terms of hubs and scale is obviously a competitive advantage.

尼古拉: 你所做的事情中,最困难的部分是什么?

Original English

Nicolai: What's the most difficult part of what you're doing?

拉斯穆斯: 有很多事情。老实说,没有哪一周会过去而我没有接到任何关于世界上某个地方的项目进展不顺利的电话。我们正在建设超大规模的基础设施,所以认为这一切能像钟表一样精准运行是天真的。在保持项目正轨的同时处理这些挑战,是我们必须应对的事情,当然也是任何公司都需要应对的。我会说,这个行业的时间线(timelines)是充满挑战的。建设一个风电场需要四到五年的时间。昨天在丹麦赢得的招标,其风电场要到2032年才能完工。从风险管理和承诺建立的角度来管理这些时间线,都是我们花很多时间思考的事情。

Original English

Rasmus: There are many things. There is not a week that goes by, to be honest, where I don't get some sort of inbound call with something on a project somewhere in the world that is not going according to plan. We are constructing infrastructure at a massive scale, so believing that this is just clockwork is naive. Dealing with the challenges while staying on track is something we deal with, but something that any company of course has to deal with. I would say that the timelines for the industry are challenging. The fact that it takes four to five years to construct a wind farm. The fact that the tenders that were won in Denmark yesterday are for wind farms that will be finalized in 2032. Managing the timelines from a risk management perspective, from a commitment buildup perspective, all of that is something that we spend a lot of time thinking about.

漂浮式风电的前景与务实考量

尼古拉: 你对漂浮式风电有什么看法?漂浮式风电,也就是说,它们基本上是漂浮在水面上的高大建筑物,而不是固定在海床上的,对吧?

Original English

Nicolai: What is your view on floating wind? Floating wind, i.e., they are basically tall constructions which float in the water rather than being fixed to the seabed, right?

拉斯穆斯: 作为我们战略的一部分,在我去年初接管公司后不久,我们基本上调整了战略,只专注于近海固定式海上风电。因此,我们退出了漂浮式风电,退出了绿色燃料,并出售了我们的欧洲陆上业务。所以我们基本上专注于我们认为我们最具竞争力的地方,以及我们有信心会带来增长的地方。我们退出漂浮式风机的原因,并不是我不相信它会到来。我当然相信它会到来,但我认为这需要比人们预期更长的时间。

Original English

Rasmus: I still have as part of our strategy—shortly after I took over early last year, we basically changed our strategy to focus only on bottom-fixed offshore wind. So we stepped away from floating, we stepped away from green fuels, and we sold our European onshore business. So we basically focused on where we believe, first of all, we are the most competitive, but also where we are confident that growth will come. The reason we stepped away from floating is not because I don't believe it will come. I certainly believe it will come, but I think it's going to take more time than people expect.

尼古拉: 这能有好的商业案例(盈利空间)吗?

Original English

Nicolai: Is there a good business case for it?

拉斯穆斯: 未来有一天可能会有。但目前至少对我们来说,我看不到。回到我们之前谈到的话题,关键在于经济性。也就是为消费者提供廉价的电力。在这一点如此受到关注的时候,漂浮式风电的LCOE显然要比固定式风机高得多。因此,除非你身处别无选择的市场,否则对我们来说……

Original English

Rasmus: There can be one day. I don't see it right now, for us at least. Back to what we talked about before, it's about affordability. It's about cheap power for the consumers. At a point in time where that is so much in focus, the LCOE of floating is simply significantly higher than it is for bottom-fixed. So therefore, unless you are in markets where you have no other options, then for us...

尼古拉: 你对那些愿意对这些类型的开发项目进行巨额补贴的国家怎么看?

Original English

Nicolai: What do you think about countries which are willing to massively subsidize these types of developments?

拉斯穆斯: 我们是在讨论漂浮式风电还是普遍意义上的风电?如果从社会的角度来看,你相信随着时间的推移,这将给你的消费者带来最便宜的电力,那么这对我来说是有道理的。

Original English

Rasmus: Are we talking floating or in general? If from a societal perspective you believe that over time that will bring the cheapest power for your consumers, then it makes sense to me.

尼古拉: 那你认为它会吗?

Original English

Nicolai: And do you think it will?

拉斯穆斯: 这取决于国家。在那些近海固定式风电、陆上风电或太阳能有巨大潜力的国家,我不会在漂浮式风机上花太多时间。但如果有些地方漂浮式风电最终会带来最低的电价,且你相信这一点,那它就是合理的。

Original English

Rasmus: Depending on the country. In countries where you have a significant potential for bottom-fixed or onshore wind and solar, I would not spend a lot of time on floating. But if there are places where it will bring the lowest price over time, and you believe that, it makes sense.

中国风电供应链与全球采购考量

尼古拉: 中国。跟我说说中国风机制造能力的建设。自从你进入这个行业以来,中国的这部分业务发生了什么变化?

Original English

Nicolai: China. Tell me about the Chinese buildup of turbine manufacturing capability. Since you started in the business, how has the Chinese part of the business changed?

拉斯穆斯: 所以首先,从战略上讲,我们在中国并没有业务。我们既没有作为开发商在中国开展活动,也没有在设备制造(OEM)采购端与中国有业务往来。我们是中国以外海上风电行业的全球领头羊。但显然,这也意味着密切跟踪行业趋势和动态是尽职的表现,我们也确实是这么做的。当然,中国的学习曲线非常陡峭,因为你开始看到他们正在建设大量的海上风电。

Original English

Rasmus: So first of all, strategically, we are not active in China. We are not active in China as a developer, and we are also not active in China from an OEM perspective in terms of sourcing. We are the global leader of the industry outside of China. But that obviously also means that it's diligent to follow the trends in the industry and what is going on, and we do that. Of course, there is a very significant learning curve in China because you are starting to see they are constructing a lot of offshore wind.

拉斯穆斯: 我认为在谈论中国时,做出几点区分是很重要的。首先,需要记住海上风电整体上是一个全球性行业。整个行业都在从中国获取单桩(monopiles)——即直达海底的基础。这个行业在从中国获取电缆。这个行业在从中国获取船只。

Original English

Rasmus: I think it's important when we talk about China to make a few distinctions. First of all, it's important to remember that offshore wind is a global industry as a whole. The industry is getting monopiles from China—the foundations that go all the way to the seabed. The industry is getting cables from China. The industry is getting vessels from China.

尼古拉: 那为什么你们不使用中国的设备呢?

Original English

Nicolai: So why are you not using Chinese equipment?

拉斯穆斯: 正如我所说,我们正在使用单桩。但在风力发电机上,对我来说在很多方面是不同的讨论。我认为,首先需要记住的是,欧洲的供应链已经走过了很长的一段路。仅仅在过去三年里,整个欧洲供应链就在制造能力——如工厂、港口、船只等方面——投资了140亿欧元。所以,你绝不能低估欧洲供应链的能力,我们的看法是,结合全球供应链,欧洲供应链有能力完成建设。

Original English

Rasmus: We are using monopiles, as I said. But on turbines, it is to me in many ways a different conversation. I think, first of all, it's important to remember that the European supply chain has come a very long way. Just the last three years, the European supply chain as a whole has invested 14 billion euros in manufacturing capacity on factories, ports, vessels, and so on. So you should not in any way underestimate the capability of the European supply chain, and our view is that with the global supply chain, the European supply chain can deliver the buildout.

尼古拉: 作为一家部分国有的公司,你有可能购买欧洲以外的产品吗?如果你跑去说:‘嘿,大伙们,我们打算买中国的风机。’你还能保住工作吗?

Original English

Nicolai: Would it be possible for you, as a partly state-owned company, to buy anything other than European? If you came and said, 'Hey guys, we're just going to buy Chinese turbines', would you keep your job?

拉斯穆斯: 目前,当你看到欧洲的政策框架时,中国风机并不在备选范围内。我们主要在欧洲活跃,此外还在台湾、韩国、澳大利亚以及美国开展业务。所以对我们来说,目前这并不是一个选项。

Original English

Rasmus: Right now, when you look at the frameworks in Europe, Chinese turbines are not part of the mix. And we are active in Europe, and then we are active in Taiwan, Korea, Australia, and the US. So for us right now, it's not there.

尼古拉: 在质量方面,中国的风机是否旗鼓相当?

Original English

Nicolai: Qualitatively, are they on par, in terms of Chinese turbines?

拉斯穆斯: 这对我来说很难说,因为我们主要还是做市场筛选。当我们采购时,我们不仅看价格,我们还会看战略契合度、技术,以及非常重要的一点——它如何与我们的运营基地相匹配。

Original English

Rasmus: It's difficult for me to say, because again, we predominantly do market screening. When we source, we don't only look at the price, we also look at the strategic fit, the technology, and very much how it fits with our operational base.

尼古拉: 为什么中国制造厂商在风机领域如此令人难以置信地成功?

Original English

Nicolai: Why are the Chinese manufacturers so incredibly successful when it comes to turbines?

拉斯穆斯: 据我了解,我们这里讨论的还是我们没有开展业务的市场。在我们活跃的市场中,基本上都是欧洲的风机供应商。但当然,在其他市场中,他们确实能够从价格角度提供极具竞争力的产品。

Original English

Rasmus: As I understand it, again, we are talking about markets where we are not active. In the markets where we are active, it is basically European turbine suppliers. But of course, it looks like in other markets, they are able to deliver a competitive product from a price perspective.

所有权结构与Equinor合并传闻

尼古拉: 让我们转向所有权。你们难道不应该将你们的业务与挪威国家石油公司(Equinor)的业务合并吗?

Original English

Nicolai: Let's move on to ownership. Should you not merge your activities with Equinor's activities?

拉斯穆斯: 我目前的精力完全集中在交付我们一年半前公布的计划上。

Original English

Rasmus: My focus right now is on delivering on the plan that we have put out one and a half years ago.

尼古拉: 因为你们在某个阶段确实有过一些合并谈判。

Original English

Nicolai: Because you did have some merger talks at some stage.

拉斯穆斯: 现在,明确地说,我们正处于重组计划的第三年,尼古拉。我们有一个为期三年的重塑计划,目前已经执行了六个季度,并且我们目前正非常扎实地走在正轨上。我们现在脚下有了坚实的土地,毫无疑问我们面前还有很多工作,但我们目前处于一个很好的状态。我们非常高兴能有Equinor作为我们的股东,他们目前仍然持有我们约10%的股份,目前我们正是把他们作为股东来对待。

Original English

Rasmus: Right now, just to be clear, we are three years into a turnaround plan, Nicolai. We have a three-year turnaround plan, and we are six quarters in, and we are right now very much on track. We now have firm ground under our feet, and we have a lot of work in front of us, no doubt, but we are in a good place. We are very pleased to have Equinor as an owner, they have around 10% of us still, and for now we treat them as exactly that, as an owner.

尼古拉: 合并会有哪些积极的方面?

Original English

Nicolai: What would be the positive sides of a merger?

拉斯穆斯: 我不太想探讨这个问题,因为这确实不是我们现在所处的阶段。

Original English

Rasmus: I don't really want to entertain that, because it's really not where we are.

尼古拉: 好的。

Original English

Nicolai: Okay.

削减25%人员:危机中的领导力抉择

尼古拉: 拉斯穆斯,当你作为首席执行官,经历了你刚上任时所经历的那段时期,面对美国局势和资本募集等重重挑战,在那种情况下运营一家公司需要领导者具备什么素质?

Original English

Nicolai: Rasmus, what when you are CEO and you go through the type of periods that you did in the beginning with you know the US situation the money raising and so on just what does it what does it take from a leader to run a company in a situation like that?

拉斯穆斯: 我想首先,对我而言,在回答这个问题时我是非常谦卑的,因为我担任CEO只有一年半的时间。但我非常非常了解沃旭能源。我非常了解沃旭的人,非常了解我们的价值观和文化,因此也知道我们面临的要求。但我不想坐在这里为其他应对危机的人总结出什么通用真理。对我们、也对我个人而言,最重要的是去年我将精力集中在四件事上。

Original English

Rasmus: I think first of all, for me, I answer this question with a great deal of sort of being humble about it because I have been the CEO for one and a half years. I know us really really well. I know the people in us really well. I know our values. I know our culture really well. So therefore also what is required for us. But I don't want to sit here and try to throw out truths for everybody else managing a crisis. What has been important for us, and for me, has been that I personally focused on four things last year.

拉斯穆斯: 除了公司的常规优先级之外,我决定必须花更多时间投入的方面是:第一,确立新的战略方向,我们已经做到了。

Original English

Rasmus: Different from the company priorities, for me where I decided I really need to spend more time, it was to set a new strategic direction, and we did.

拉斯穆斯: 第二,是组建一支新团队,我们现在已经有了。

Original English

Rasmus: It was to set a new team, which we have.

拉斯穆斯: 第三,是让最重大的决策尽可能正确。我的意思是,当你管理像我们这样的公司,并且进行如此大规模的资本配置时,那些孤立地看起来只是项目层面的决策,实际上是能定义你未来多年发展道路的战略决策。所以,去年要让最重大的决策尽可能正确。

Original English

Rasmus: To get the biggest decisions as right as possible. What I mean by that is that when you're running a company like ours, and when you're doing capital allocation of this magnitude, decisions that in isolation look like just a project decision are in reality strategic decisions that can define your path for the next many, many years. So, getting the biggest decisions as right as possible last year.

拉斯穆斯: 最后,是重塑我们的内外部沟通方式。我们需要重建信任,而在我看来,重建信任其实非常简单:你只需要做你所承诺的事情。这也要求你以及你的沟通非常清晰,你需要多听,但我必须对我们所处的路径、旅程以及我们面临的挑战非常坦诚。

Original English

Rasmus: And finally, resetting our approach to communication, internally and also externally. We needed to rebuild trust, and in order to rebuild trust, in my view, it's pretty simple: you just need to do what you say you're going to do. And that also requires that you and your communication are very clear, and you need to listen a lot, but I needed to be very clear about the path and the journey we are on, and also the challenges we have in front of us.

拉斯穆斯: 例如,我们在管理层很早就决定向大家讲清楚,我们必须调整组织结构,并将人员裁减约25%,尽管这一调整要到明年年底才会最终完成。但我认为这样做是对的,给我们的团队提供清晰的预期,让他们知道我们面临着什么。

Original English

Rasmus: As an example, we decided in management quite early to go out and be very clear about the fact that we had to adjust our organization and reduce the number of people by around 25%, even though we will only be finalized with that by the back end of next year. But I felt that was the right thing to do and provide that clarity to our team so they knew what we were up against.

尼古拉: 对于一家很多人是为了‘改变世界’才加入的公司来说,突然陷入危机并面临25%的人员裁减,这对员工士气有什么影响?你如何重整旗鼓?如何维持士气?

Original English

Nicolai: What does it do to morale in a company when a lot of the people joined to change the world, and suddenly they are in a crisis instead, and you reduce the number of people by 25%? How do you rally the troops? How do you keep morale?

拉斯穆斯: 是的。有几点。同样,理解我们的处境很重要:在危机发生的几年前,也就是我接任前的三四年里,我们经历了一整年的顺风顺水。然后从顺风顺水转向因各种原因变得非常艰难的境地,这显然会给组织的自我认知甚至自尊心留下烙印。但与此同时,我所看到的是一个证明了自己具有极其强大韧性的组织。

Original English

Rasmus: Yeah. A few things. Again, it's important to understand our situation: leading up to the crisis years, the three or four years ahead of me taking over, we had had a decade of tailwind. And then going from that into something that, for different reasons, became quite difficult, of course leaves a mark on the self-perception and even the self-esteem of the organization. But at the same time, what I have seen is an organization that has proven to be incredibly resilient.

拉斯穆斯: 而且我认为,这种韧性的原因之一在于我们的员工自始至终都有着非常强烈的使命感。如果你不相信世界完全由绿色能源运行的愿景,不相信我们有能力长期保持海上风电全球领导者的地位,你根本不会选择为沃旭能源工作。我们不会放弃。我认为这是一场长跑。所以,这种使命感起到了作用,作为领导者,你需要不断提醒自己,不要将这一切视为理所当然,并在沟通中不断重申这个使命。

Original English

Rasmus: And I think one of the reasons for that resilience has also been that our people all the way through have felt a very strong purpose. You don't work for Ørsted if you don't believe in a vision of a world that runs entirely on green energy, and you believe in our ability to continue to be the global leader in offshore wind for the long run. We are not going anywhere. I think this is a long game. So I think that purpose has helped, and as a leader, you need to continue to remind yourself to not take that for granted and continue to speak to that purpose in your communication.

人生中最大的失败:误入法学院

尼古拉: 现在,我们在播客中加入了一个新环节,就是询问嘉宾最大的失败。在你个人层面上,你一生中最大的错误或失败是什么?

Original English

Nicolai: Now, we've started a new thing in this podcast, which is to ask the guests about their biggest failure. What's been the biggest mistake or failure in your life on a personal level?

拉斯穆斯: 明确地说,我今年47岁了,犯过很多错误。但如果我们要选一个与今天坐在这里有部分关联的,那可能就是我很多年前决定去读法学院,对吧?

Original English

Rasmus: I'm 47 years old, I have made many mistakes, just to be clear. But if we pick one that is partly relevant to sitting here, it's probably the fact that I many years ago decided to go to law school, right?

尼古拉: 对。

Original English

Nicolai: Right.

拉斯穆斯: 我读完了法学院。我在丹麦最大的一家顶尖律师事务所工作了几年。但我在这段旅途中相当快地意识到,这不是适合我的路。我看着周围,看着那样的生活,只觉得有些我需要的东西缺失了。所以从那个感悟开始,我可能不得不比本可以走的捷径付出加倍的努力……

Original English

Rasmus: I finished law school. I worked for a great law firm, one of the biggest in Denmark, for years. But I relatively soon on that journey realized that this was not the path for me. I looked around, and I looked at the life, and I just felt something was lacking for me. And so from that realization, I probably had to work a little bit harder than I would have had to had I...

尼古拉: 那为什么选择法学院呢?你的父母好像不是律师。

Original English

Nicolai: So why did you choose law school? It wasn't like your parents were lawyers.

拉斯穆斯: 是的。我是我们家族中唯一没有从事医疗行业的人。如果你愿意的话,可以说我是个‘异类’(black sheep)。为了回答这个问题,你可能需要理解我的成长背景。我在一个把职业和工作看作次要的家庭中长大。工作确实重要,因为你需要养家糊口,但真正重要的事情是家庭、体育运动和做一个好朋友。我父母一辈子没问过我的成绩,但他们愿意开车送我到丹麦的任何地方,去追逐我成为职业网球运动员的梦想。那没能成功。不过接着事情有了变化……

Original English

Rasmus: No. I'm the only person in my family who is not in some sort of medical profession. So the black sheep, if you will. In order to answer that, you probably need to understand how I was raised. I was raised in a family where careers and jobs were secondary. It was important—you needed to feed your family—but the really important stuff was family, sports, and being a good friend. I've never been asked about grades in my life by my parents, and they drove me anywhere in Denmark so I could live out my dream, which was to become a professional tennis player. That didn't work out. But then there was something in...

尼古拉: 这是丹麦的特色吗?生活中‘舒适惬意’(hygge)的方面比赚钱更重要?

Original English

Nicolai: Is this a Danish thing? The 'hygge' aspect of life is more important than making money?

拉斯穆斯: 我不知道这是否是丹麦的特色,但我觉得对我的成长过程来说,关键在于平衡。

Original English

Rasmus: I don't know if it's a Danish thing, but I think for my upbringing, it was about balance.

尼古拉: 那你当初应该学什么?

Original English

Nicolai: What should you have studied?

拉斯穆斯: 我应该学金融或者类似的专业。至于为什么最终决定去读法学院,回答你的问题,是因为我当时觉得自己想要尝试拥有一份事业。所以我更多地去看职业生涯可能是什么样子的,但我对这需要付出什么有着相当天真的理解。而且,当时我还不算足够了解自己。

Original English

Rasmus: I should have studied some sort of finance, or something like that. The reason I ended up deciding to go to law school, to answer your question, was because I felt that I wanted to try to have a career. And so I looked more at what that could look like, but I had a little bit of a naive understanding of what it would entail. And also, I didn't know myself well enough.

尼古拉: 我的意思是,在某种程度上,律师和金融是一回事。如果你当时说:‘我想成为一名牧师或瑜伽老师’,那还……

Original English

Nicolai: I mean, I kind of think, in a way, lawyers and finance are the same kind of thing. If you had said, 'Yeah, I want to be a priest or a yoga teacher', but...

拉斯穆斯: 是的,但我想对我来说……

Original English

Rasmus: Yeah, but I think for me...

职业网球生涯与CEO的放松哲学

尼古拉: 说到这里,有什么是大家不知道的、关于你的事情?

Original English

Nicolai: And speaking of which, what is something about you that people don't know?

拉斯穆斯: 老实说,我认为有很多大家不知道的事。我是一个相对低调隐私的人。在这个职位上,我必须习惯的其中一件事,显然是你变成了一个更具公众色彩的人。这是我一生中做的第二个播客。我不怎么接受采访。所以我觉得人们对我有很多不了解的地方。如果要挑几件事——我们之前提到过,我的整个青春期都是在网球场上度过的。我们家离网球俱乐部只有8米。8米,我当时就住在那里。

Original English

Rasmus: I think there are quite a few things that people don't know, to be honest. I am a relatively private person. One of the things I've had to get used to in this role is, obviously, the fact that you become a bit more of a public person. This is the second podcast I have done in my life. I don't give that many interviews. So I think there are many things people don't know about me. If I were to pick a few things—we talked about it before, I spent my entire youth on a tennis court. We lived 8 meters from a tennis club. 8 meters, and I lived there.

尼古拉: 你打得好吗?

Original English

Nicolai: Were you good?

拉斯穆斯: 我入选过丹麦国家队。但后来从那里退下来了,不过我确实打得相当不错。是的,直到16岁左右。

Original English

Rasmus: I made it to the Danish national team. But then I dropped from there, but I was pretty good. Yes. Until I was 16-ish.

尼古拉: 那你现在怎么放松?

Original English

Nicolai: And how do you relax now?

拉斯穆斯: 我过着相对简朴的生活。我通过陪伴家人来充电。我有三个儿子,他们都住在家里。基本上,他们就是我的电池。所以我和他们一起充电。我们可以谈论很多关于长寿以及作为CEO如何保持身心健康的秘诀。确实,我滴酒不沾,每周大概七天都是晚上9点到10点之间上床睡觉。我尽量多做运动。但归根结底,我可以洗所有我想要的冰浴,但如果我的家人过得不开心,我无法在工作中表现出我应有的状态。所以,我充电的地方主要还是在家里,以各种方式陪伴我的家人。

Original English

Rasmus: I live a relatively simple life. I recharge with my family. I have three sons, they all live at home. They are my batteries, basically. So I recharge with them. We can talk a lot about longevity and how you make sure you stay fit mentally and physically as a CEO. And yes, I don't drink at all, I go to bed between 9:00 PM and 10:00 PM, seven days a week, more or less. I try to do a lot of exercise. But at the end of the day, I can take all the ice baths that I would like, but if my family is not thriving, I cannot be what I need to be in my job. So therefore, where I recharge is basically with them, with my family, in different shapes and forms.

尼古拉: 你享受当下的生活吗?

Original English

Nicolai: Are you enjoying life?

拉斯穆斯: 是的。在我看来,我拥有了能梦寐以求的最好的工作。我非常有动力参与到沃旭能源的重组中来。我自始至终都是这段旅程的一员。我感到一种强烈的责任感(accountability),这是我扭转局面的巨大动力。我感到非常荣幸,因为我身边的每一个人都健康快乐。我以前不知道当首席执行官是什么感觉——我怎么会知道呢?我读着和大家一样的书。但我发现,这份工作毫无疑问是我做过的最艰难的工作,但也是最让人有成就感的。

Original English

Rasmus: Yes. I have, in my view, the best job you can dream of. I am incredibly motivated to be part of turning Ørsted around. I have been part of the journey all along. I feel a great sense of accountability, and that's a huge driver for me to turn it around. I am incredibly privileged that everyone around me is healthy and happy. I didn't know what it was like to be a CEO—how could I? I read the same books as everybody else. But I have found the job to be the toughest job I have ever had, no doubt, but also the most fulfilling.

给年轻人的四大职业与人生建议

尼古拉: 你有三个儿子。那你的——我是说,这是最后一个问题了。你对年轻人的建议是什么?

Original English

Nicolai: You have three sons. What is your—I mean, last question here. What is your advice to young people?

拉斯穆斯: 无论你选择在生活中、在事业中做什么,首先,关注你的收获和学习。自始至终,关注你的学习而不是仅仅关注结果,因为归根结底,这才是让你到达彼岸的东西。找出你的使命所在。回到我们的谈话,我可能发现得有点太晚了。但从那以后,我的职业生涯就不同了。我感受到了不一样的火焰。努力工作并善待他人是无可替代的。为了学习,为了成为你需要成为的人,你必须这样做。

Original English

Rasmus: No matter what you decide to do in life, in your career, first of all, focus on what you learn. All along, focus on what you learn rather than just the results, because at the end of the day, that is what is going to get you there. Find out what is your purpose. Back to our conversation, I probably found out a little bit too late. But after that point in time, my career has been different. I felt a different fire. There is no substitute for working hard and being nice to people. You have to, in order to learn, in order to become what you need to become.

拉斯穆斯: 接着,也差不多是同样道理,但请记住,我们在这里所做的一切都是团队运动。许多年轻人,或者至少有一些人,有这样一种误解,认为当CEO过着非常孤独的生活,高处不胜寒。我不知道你怎么想,但对我来说,我一点也不觉得孤独。

Original English

Rasmus: And then a little bit of the same, but remember that all of this that we are doing here is a team sport. Many young people in particular, or some at least, have this misconception that being a CEO is a very lonely life, that you are lonely at the top. I don't know how you feel about it, but for me, I don't feel lonely at all.

尼古拉: 我同意。

Original English

Nicolai: I agree.

拉斯穆斯: 我感到身边的人给予我超级多的支持。这百分之百是一项团队运动。

Original English

Rasmus: I feel super supported by the people around me. It's 100% a team sport.

尼古拉: 所以意识到这一点,越早意识到……

Original English

Nicolai: So realizing that, the sooner you realize that...

拉斯穆斯: 你就会做得越好。

Original English

Rasmus: The better you're going to do.

尼古拉: 是的。非常高兴你能来。

Original English

Nicolai: Yeah. It's been great having you here.

拉斯穆斯: 非常感谢。

Original English

Rasmus: Thank you so much.

尼古拉: 谢谢。真的希望大家喜欢这一期。如果喜欢,请点赞、订阅并开启通知。

Original English

Nicolai: Thank you. Really hoped you like the episode. If you did, please like it, subscribe, and put on the notification.

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

关键字: offshore-wind green-transition risk-management energy-policy