AI 时代下的人类价值重塑:超越图灵测试,拥抱工作未来 TED 2026-03-22

超越图灵测试:AI 时代下人类价值的重塑

50年代,艾伦·图灵(Alan Turing)提出了一个想法:如果你无法分辨是在与机器还是人类对话,那就意味着机器具有智能。他创造了图灵测试(Turing Test)。如今,大多数聊天机器人都能轻松通过此测试。但关键在于,我认为这个测试是错误的。因为改变世界的不是“交谈”,而是“行动”。

在思考 AI 如何重塑工作的同时,理解其核心能力的演进至关重要。因此,我经常问我合作的领导者一个略有不同的问题。我的日常工作是重塑组织,寻找战略(strategy)、技术(tech)和人才(talent)的完美结合。我痴迷于确保“人才”这个要素不被忽视。所以,我问客户的问题是:如果一个 AI 可以接管你团队的所有任务,你会留下谁,为什么?

这个问题具有战略意义。它不仅在智力上吸引我,更因为我家里有两个女儿——她们一个五岁,一个九岁。此刻,她们感觉无所不能。但我总在思考:她们将步入一个怎样的职场世界?我们需要构建一个人类价值日益凸显而非削弱的未来。

Original English

Back in the 50s, Alan Turing came up with an idea. If you couldn't tell if you were talking to a machine or a human, it meant the machine must be intelligent. He coined the Turing test. Today, most chatbots pass the test easily. But here's the catch. I believe the test was wrong. Because talking isn't what's going to change the world. Doing is.

That's why I ask a slightly different question to the leaders I work with. On a daily basis, my role is to reshape organizations, trying to find the right mix of strategy, tech and talent. And my obsession is to make sure that talents do not get out of the equation. So the question I ask my clients is: if an AI could take over all of your team's tasks, who would you keep and why?

That question is strategic. And the answer matters to me, not just intellectually, but because I have two daughters at home. They are five and nine. And right now, as you can see, they feel invincible. But I keep wondering: What is the world of work they will step into? We need to build a future where humans matter more, not less.

AI 代理:重塑销售流程与人际关系的范式转移

现在,让我举例说明这在实践中是如何展开的。我的一位消费品客户正全面拥抱 AI。他们不满足于仅仅部署下一个算法,而是希望重塑销售流程本身。触发点是AI 代理(AI agents)。大家听说过 AI 代理吗?它们是最新一代的 AI:更自主,能跨系统连接,进行规划、执行、学习和适应。堪称 AI 中的詹姆斯·邦德。应用于销售流程,AI 代理能够精准定位客户、提供推荐、谈判并完成交易,全程无需人工干预,形成一个完全自主的销售引擎。技术上是完全可行的。

然而,一位高管问了一个关键问题:“如果机器能做这一切,那人类还剩下什么?”这个问题彻底打开了局面。因为当我们深入研究他们最忠实的客户时,发现客户之所以忠诚,并非因为价格或产品,而是因为销售代表让他们产生的感受。于是,我们颠覆了模式。人类不再是推销产品的角色,而是转变为构建关系(relationship)、归属感(belonging)和忠诚度(loyalty)的关键。具体来说,这意味着需要全新的技能、激励机制和截然不同的心态。这改变了一切,并且卓有成效。因为在 AI 时代,人类的价值并未消失,只是发生了转移。

这一案例清晰地表明,AI 的崛起并非终结人类价值,而是促使其向更深层次的人际互动和情感连接转移。

Original English

Now let me try to illustrate how this is playing out in the field. A consumer goods client of mine is all in on AI. They didn't want to just deploy the next algo. They wanted to rethink the selling process itself. The trigger was agents. Have you heard about agents? They are the latest generation of AI: more autonomous, able to connect across systems, to plan, to take action, to learn, to adapt. The James Bond of AI. And applied to the selling process, you get an agent that is able to target the customer, make recommendations, negotiate, close the deal. All this with no human intervention. A fully autonomous sales engine. And it was technically feasible.

But then an exec asked, "Hmm, if the machine does all of this, then what remains for humans?" This cracked everything open because when we looked deeper at their most loyal customers, we saw they weren’t sticking around because of prices or products but because of how the sales rep made them feel. So we flipped the model around. Humans were no longer going to be about pushing products. They were going to be about building relationship, belonging, loyalty. Very concretely, this meant new skills, new incentives, a very different mindset. Well it changed everything. But it worked. Because in the age of AI, human value isn't gone. It's just moved.

破除三大迷思:适应 AI 时代的战略认知

我不再谈论“副驾驶”(copilots)式的 AI 辅助。一段时间以来,主流叙事是 AI 将“增强”我们,而非“取代”我们。然而,当前的技术发展方向并非如此。如果我们希望这一叙事得以延续,我们还有大量艰巨的工作要做。稍后我将阐述我认为需要做什么。但首先,让我来打破三个我认为束缚我们的“鸵鸟心态”迷思。

第一个迷思:“这一切都被夸大了,我们会适应的。”是的,我们适应了电力、工业革命和互联网。但我们是依靠那些没有接受过培训、也没有足够时间去适应的几代人完成的。而在这场革命中,时间至关重要。你可能觉得有时间,因为 AI 代理才刚刚出现。这是一个事实:我们的研究表明,今天只有 13% 的公司在其工作流程中嵌入了 AI 代理。但技术是呈指数级(exponentially)增长的,而人类的进步是线性(linearly)的。如果你现在不做好准备,将难以跟上。我说的不是科幻小说,不是通用人工智能(AGI,Artificial General Intelligence)——即 AI 比我们更聪明的那一刻。我指的是人工能力智能(ACI,Artificial Capable Intelligence),即 AI 能够以最少监督承担模糊、复杂目标的那一刻。AGI 尚属猜测,但 ACI 却是实实在在的“截止日期”。当我们花费数小时辩论超级智能和意识时,却错过了 ACI 正在频繁达成的里程碑。ACI 将改变工作的形式以及由谁来完成。让我们主动塑造它,而不是坐观其变。

第二个迷思:“软技能是我们的优势所在。”是的,我们乐于相信共情(empathy)和创造力(creativity)是人类独有的。但证据显示并非如此。越来越多的人类喜欢与 AI 互动,因为他们觉得 AI 更具共情能力。为什么呢?AI 不会疲倦,不会暴躁,也不会评判你。所以,我们曾以为固若金汤的“护城河”正在萎缩。我们需要停止追问 AI 做不到什么,而应聚焦人类能带来差异化优势的地方以及原因。此刻,你可能希望我列出一份永恒的人类特质清单。但我的观点是:不存在普适性的清单。每个公司都必须根据其战略定位来确定这一点。这是一项艰巨、令人不适的工作,但作为领导者,你们必须承担起来。

第三个迷思,也是我最喜欢的(我来自法国)。“我们需要保护工作岗位。”是的,我理解这个观点的出发点。今天,41% 的员工认为他们的工作将在未来十年内因 AI 而消失。但保护工作岗位就像在风暴中抛锚,工作岗位是固定的。而人类成长和适应的潜力,则是动态的。这才是我们应该投资的方向。挑战在于,我们目前的组织结构并非为此而设计。组织架构是静态的,职业路径狭窄,培训是偶发的。一旦工作岗位的边界开始迅速模糊,这套系统将分崩离析。

明确了这些认知误区后,企业需要积极构建面向未来的组织结构和人才策略。

Original English

Now I’m not talking about copilots anymore. For a while the narrative has been AI will augment us, not replace us. Well this is not where the tech is going today. And I believe we have real hard work to do if we want this narrative to stay true. So I'll say a few words about what I think needs to be done in a second. But first, let me tackle three myths that I think are holding us back. I call them "head in the sand" ideology.

Number one. "All of this is overblown. We'll adapt." Yes. We've adapted to electricity, the industrial revolution, the internet. But we've done so on the back of generations that did not have the training nor the time to adapt. And in the case of this revolution, time is of the essence. You may think you have time because agents are just emerging. And it's a fact. Our research shows that today only 13 percent of companies have embedded agents in their workflows. But tech moves exponentially. Humans, they crawl linearly. If you don't prepare now, you'll struggle to keep up. And I'm not talking about science fiction. I'm not talking about AGI, artificial general intelligence, this moment where AI will be smarter than us. I'm referring here to ACI, artificial capable intelligence. The moment when AI will be able to take on ambiguous, complex goals with minimal oversight. And while AGI is speculative, ACI is a deadline. While we spend hours debating about superintelligence and consciousness, we miss the milestones that ACI is meeting with increasing frequency. ACI will change how work is done and by whom. Let's shape it, not wait and see.

Now myth number two. "Soft skills are our sweet spot." Yes, it's lovely to believe that empathy, creativity are uniquely ours. But evidence says otherwise. More and more humans like to interact with AI because they feel it's more empathic. And why not? I mean, AI doesn't get tired, doesn't get cranky, doesn't judge you. So this moat we thought was ours, it's shrinking. And we need to stop asking what AI can't do and focus on where humans make a difference and why. At this stage, I'm sure you would love me to come up with the list of human qualities that will remain ours forever. But my point is, there is no universal list. Each company needs to figure it out based on its strategic positioning. This is hard, uncomfortable work, but it's work that you as leaders need to take on.

Now myth number three. My preferred one. I'm French. "We need to protect jobs." Yes. I see where this one is coming from. Today, 41 percent of employees believe that their job will vanish in the next decade because of AI. But protecting jobs is like anchoring a boat in a storm. Jobs are fixed. The human potential to grow and adapt, on the other hand, is not. This is where we need to invest. The challenge is our organizations are not geared for that today. Org charts are static. Career paths are narrow. Training is occasional. This system will fall apart the day that the boundaries of jobs start melting away fast.

AI 优先战略:构建卓越组织与人才模型

那么,我们该怎么做?让我带你们看一家理想中的公司。这并非理论构想,而是我与许多最具胆识的客户合作实践的融合。首先,他们不以技术为起点,而是以战略(strategy)为先导。他们聚焦于真正能在市场上形成差异化的成果(outcomes)。他们理解 AI 代理将如何以截然不同的方式帮助他们实现这些成果。并且,他们会审视在哪些环节人类依然能带来积极的改变。正如你们所见,这不是对运营模式进行渐进式重设计,而是彻底的AI 优先(AI-first)的革新。我曾为一位工业品客户进行过此类工作。想象一下,要经历 50 场“拥抱未来”的工作坊,深入探讨 AI 将如何颠覆你们的各项业务和职能。这舒服吗?一点也不。但这使得领导者们能够就“AI 代理的优势所在、人类的关键作用,以及如何最佳地将两者结合”形成统一愿景。

有了这一愿景后,你需要将其转化为劳动力模型(workforce model)。需要多少人?具备哪些技能?不再是凭空猜测,而是基于信息、有目的地进行重塑。这涉及到多年技能预测(multiyear skills forecast)。我们为一位面临巨大挑战的消费品客户构建了这样的体系。设想一下,他们需要彻底重塑整个产品组合,同时保持行业领先地位和创新能力。当然,AI 释放了所需的高生产力,但工作远不止于此。他们需要重塑研究员(researcher)的角色:从化学家转变为数据驱动的生物学家(data-driven biologist),从孤立的专家变为多功能团队成员(multifunctional teammates)。他们之所以能成功,是因为他们精确地描绘了所需未来技能,并构建了一个高效的技能提升与流动引擎(upskilling and mobility engine)。

将愿景转化为实际行动,关键在于建立一套能够预测和培养未来所需技能的体系。

Original English

So what do we need to do? Let me take you to an ideal company. Not a theoretical one, just the blend of the boldest clients I've worked with. First, they don't start with tech. They start with strategy. They focus on the outcomes that truly differentiate them on the market. They understand how agents will allow them to deliver against those outcomes in totally different ways. And they look at where people still make a difference for the better. As you can see, this is not incremental redesign of your operating model. It's radical AI-first reinvention. And we did this work for an industrial goods client of mine. Imagine having to go through 50 “hack a future” workshops, looking at how AI is going to disrupt each of your businesses, each of your function. Comfortable? It is not. But it allowed the leaders to align on a vision of where agents win, people matter and how best to pair them.

Now once you have this vision, you want to translate it into a workforce model. How many people do I need? With what skills? No more guesswork, just informed, intentional reinvention. A multiyear skills forecast. And this is something we built for a consumer goods client that was facing a massive challenge. Imagine having to reformulate your entire product portfolio while keeping the leadership and innovation. Of course, AI unlocked the productivity that was required, but the work was much deeper. They needed to reinvent the role of the researcher. From chemist to data-driven biologist, from solo expert to multifunctional teammates. And they made it happen because they mapped very precisely the future skills that they needed, and they built a very effective upskilling and mobility engine.

战略性人才培养:在 AI 时代深化人类独特价值

然后,你需要公开承诺,让你的人才(talents)发挥其最大潜能。我知道你会问:为什么我们要投资于人才,如果 AI 能更快、更便宜、且毫无怨言地完成工作?答案是:当与 AI 互动成为新常态,一种商品化行为时,人与人之间的互动将获得全新的意义。信任(trust)、真诚(authenticity)和责任感(accountability)将是我们赖以锚定的核心价值。因此,最聪明的公司将投资于人才——不仅是技术人才,而是所有人才。并且,它们将系统性地、持续地投资,同时保护学习时间(protect time to learn)。要知道,今天自由职业者平均每周花费四小时用于学习,而员工却几乎为零。

所以,未来并非关乎“变得更人性化”,而是关乎构建能够让人类专注于最重要事务的系统。这不是一个关于失业的故事,而是一个关于人类差异化(human differentiation)的故事。AI 将持续攀升,这非我们所能左右。但我们能以多快的速度与其一同攀升,则取决于我们自己。因此,我们需要停止追问:“未来是否还有人类的工作?”而是专注于回答:“我们希望人类最擅长什么?”因为在 AI 时代,“做人”不是一种退而求其次的选择,而是一种需要不断实践的艺术。让我们将其做到极致。

最终,AI 时代的竞争优势将取决于我们如何赋能人类,使其在智能化浪潮中发挥不可替代的作用。

Original English

Then you want to publicly commit to taking your talents to their fullest potential. Now I know what you're going to tell me. Vinciane, why would we invest in talent if an AI can do their job faster, cheaper and without complaining? Well because the day that interacting with an AI becomes the new norm, a commodity, the interaction with humans is going to take an entire new meaning. Trust, authenticity, accountability. Those are the values we will anchor on. So the smartest companies will invest in talent. Not only tech talent, all talent. Not once, but systematically. And they will protect time to learn. Because today, while freelancers spend on average four hours per week learning, employees spend none.

So no, the future isn't about being more human. It's about building the systems that will allow humans to do what matters most. This is not a story about job loss. It is a story about human differentiation. AI will keep on climbing. That is not up to us. But how fast we climb with it, that is up to us. So we need to stop asking: Will there still be jobs for humans? And focus on answering: What do we want humans to be best at? Because in the age of AI, being human isn't a fallback, it's a practice. Let's make it exceptional.

人类差异化:面向未来的实践与卓越

谢谢大家。(掌声)

Original English

Thank you. (Applause)

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

关键字: ai-agents future-of-work human-value skill-adaptation artificial-capable-intelligence