如何识别十亿美元级AI商业创意:自动化“时间”而非“责任” TechButMakeItReal 2025-11-05

AI与专业人士:为何责任不可被取代

如果人工智能(AI)能做数学计算、撰写邮件,甚至起草合同,那为什么律师和会计师们仍然有生意可做呢?

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If AI can do the math, write emails, and even draft contracts, why are lawyers and accountants still in business?

律师每小时收费500美元,而一个LLM(Large Language Model: 大型语言模型)每月仅需20美元。两者都能提供答案,甚至在一定程度上提供情感支持。

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A lawyer charges $500 an hour, while an LLM costs $20 a month. Both can provide answers and even some degree of emotional support.

那么,为什么这些专业人士没有被取代呢?因为后果截然不同。

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So, why aren't these professionals going anywhere? Because the consequences are different.

我一直想做一期节目,探讨为什么构建一个能够取代专业人士的人工智能业务或应用程序如此之难,但这并不能帮助你了解应该构建什么。

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I've been wanting to do an episode on why it's so incredibly hard to build an AI business or app that can replace a specialist, but that wouldn't help you know what to build.

因此,我决定将本期视频与之前关于大多数人工智能初创公司为何是糟糕业务的视频联系起来,讨论如何真正构建一个可持续的人工智能产品,使其能够经受住炒作、膨胀的VC(Venture Capital: 风险投资)轮融资,并能真正为你带来数十亿美元的收入。

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So, instead, I decided to tie this video to the previous one on why most AI startups are bad businesses and talk about how to actually build a sustainable AI product that will outlive the hype, inflated VC rounds, and one that can actually bring you billions of dollars.

本期内容适用于那些评估人工智能投资的人,尤其是在我们正处于2026年预算规划中期的时候,也适用于那些正在寻找真正值得解决的问题的潜在和现有创始人。让我们深入探讨。

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This is for those of you who evaluate AI investments, especially now that we're in the middle of 2026 budget planning, as well as for potential and current founders looking for a problem that is truly worth solving. Let's dive in.

专业人士工作的本质:时间和责任

为什么律师、会计师或税务顾问的劳动成本如此之高?还记得前段时间在社交媒体上流传的这首歌吗?

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Why does the labor of a lawyer, an accountant, or a tax adviser cost so much? Remember this song that was circulating social media some time ago?

“曝光度不能支付账单,它之所以那么贵是因为我付出了数小时。”

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"Exposure doesn't pay the bills. It cost that much cuz it takes me hours."

用人工智能取代高成本专业人士的雄心是现代科技创业中最严重的误判之一。我认为根本问题在于将“时间”与“责任”混为一谈。

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The ambition to replace high-cost professionals with AI is one of the most significant miscalculations in modern technology entrepreneurship. And I think that the fundamental problem lies in combining the hours with responsibility.

这种区别给那些旨在完全取代专业人士的公司带来了毁灭性的经济后果。为了理解原因,让我们分解一下专业人士的工作内容。

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This distinction creates devastating economic consequences for companies aiming at full replacement of a professional. To understand why, let's break down what a specialist does.

我们以律师为例,但这同样适用于会计、金融、税务咨询以及其他类似的高成本、高价值职业。专业人士的工作大致可以分为两类。

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Let's use a lawyer as an example, but this applies to accounting, finance, tax advising, and similar high-cost, high-value professions. The work of a specialist can be largely divided into two categories.

第一类是行政工作(Admin: Administrative tasks)。这包括输入数据、分析数据、提出建议、输出文件、撰写电子邮件等。

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The first category is admin. Input data, analyze the data, make a recommendation, spit out a document, write an email.

这些任务通常在不同客户或患者之间重复出现。它们通常是变异性很低的任务,因为专业人士必须遵循协议。

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These tasks usually repeat from a client to client, a patient to patient. It's usually the tasks with very low variability because a specialist has to follow a protocol.

让我们用一个人们在离婚时经常遇到的假设情况。当你经历离婚时,通常需要一位家庭律师。

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Let's use a hypothetical situation that people often encounter when they, for example, are going through a divorce. When you're going through a divorce, you typically need a family lawyer.

那么,你与律师的互动是如何开始的呢?你打电话给他们,告诉他们你的情况。他们倾听你的叙述,评估你的选择。

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So, how does your interaction with a lawyer begin? You call them, you tell them about your situation. They listen to you. They assess your options.

如果你有共同的孩子、共同的财产、共同的生意,这些东西如何分割等等。这就是你输入数据的步骤。

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If you have common children, if you have a property, if you have a mutual business, how can those things be split, etc., etc.? This is the step when you're inputting data.

你将数据输入到律师的头脑中。他们进行分析,根据你的情况提供建议,并开始与你前伴侣的律师进行沟通。

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You're inputting data into your lawyer's brain. They analyze it. They provide a recommendation based on your situation and they start communication with the lawyer of your former partner.

你的案件很可能相当常见,一位经验相对丰富的家庭律师以前也处理过类似的案件。但这种相似性意味着你的律师将重复他们一贯的程序。

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Chances are your case is fairly common and a relatively experienced family lawyer has seen it before. But what this similarity means is that your lawyer is going to be repeating the same procedures that they always do.

如果我们把这个场景映射到在多伦多聘请一位中级律师的费用,例如,大约是每小时500美元。你告诉他们你的情况,这是第一个小时。他们提供建议,这是第二个小时。

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If we map this scenario to how much it would cost you to hire an intermediate level lawyer in Toronto, for example, it'll be around $500 an hour. You tell them about your situation. That's the first hour. They provide a recommendation. That's the second hour.

然后你开始沟通,或者他们开始与你前伴侣的律师沟通。所以,假设再花三个小时。这样,我们仅在案件启动阶段就花费了2500美元。

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And then you start communicating or they start communicating with a fellow lawyer of your former partner. So let's say three more hours. So we just spent $2,500 on the initiation of the case.

为了节省时间,也为了本次问题发现练习的目的,我们将其保持在2500美元。请不要来找我说:“是的,它是7000美元”或“它是500美元”。我们只假设它是2500美元。

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In the interest of time and for the purpose of this problem discovery exercise, let's keep it at $2500. Please don't come at me and be like, "Yeah, it's $7,000 or it's $500." Let's just assume that it's 2500.

那么,这容易自动化吗?客观地说,是的。我到目前为止所说的一切,对于绝大多数离婚案件来说,都相当容易自动化。

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Now, is this easy to automate? Objectively, yes. Everything I've said until this point is fairly easy to automate for the vast majority of divorce cases.

会有例外吗?当然。但对于80%的离婚案件来说,程序将是直接的。

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Are there going to be exceptions? Of course. But let's say for 80% of divorce cases, the procedure is going to be straightforward.

因此,创建数据输入方式、构建算法提供建议、起草和发送电子邮件,这些都是人工智能应用程序非常常见的用例。

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So, creating a way to input data, building an algorithm to provide a recommendation, drafting emails and sending them. Very common use cases for an AI app.

但之后会发生什么呢?之后发生的事情就是自动化终止的地方,因为从这一点开始,你就不再为“时间”付费了。

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But what happens after? And the thing that happens after is the point where automation ends because beyond this point you stop paying for the hours.

那是因为从这一点开始,你进入了谈判阶段,而有谈判的地方就有责任。

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And that is because beyond this point you enter the phase of negotiations and where there is negotiation there is responsibility.

让我们谈谈责任的经济学。

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Let's talk about the economics of responsibility.

如果你正在创业,你已经知道规模化意味着招聘。每一次招聘,你都要考虑工资设置、福利注册、IT配置、12种不同工具的访问权限、公司信用卡合规文件。

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If you're building a company you already know scaling means hiring. With every hire, you're looking at payroll setup, benefits enrollment, IT provisioning, access to 12 different tools, corporate card compliance paperwork.

入职一名员工需要你的运营团队大约6小时,但你本季度要招聘15名员工。这意味着90小时的手动工作。

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Onboarding one takes your op teams about 6 hours, but you're hiring 15 this quarter. That's 90 hours of manual work.

大多数公司运行着100多种不相连的工具。现在,每种工具都解决了问题,但它们共同造成了信息孤岛。

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Most companies are running on 100 plus disconnected tools. Now, each one solves the problem, but together they create silos.

Rippling是增长最快的人力资源、IT和支出平台之一,它将此称为SAD(Software as a Disservice: 劣质软件服务)。

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Ripling, one of the fastest growing HR, IT, and spend platforms out there, calls this SAD software as a disservice.

为了解决这个问题,Rippling构建了一个统一平台,涵盖了运行公司的四个系统。所有员工数据的一个真实来源,让你可以在一个统一系统中管理人力资源、薪资、支出和IT。

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To combat this, Ripling built a unified platform across four systems that run your company. One source of truth for all employee data that allows you to manage HR, payroll, spend, and IT in one unified system.

你可以在185个以上国家/地区雇用承包商,在80个以上国家/地区雇用全职员工,并以不同货币支付他们,这非常重要,因为你的下一位员工可能不是本地人。

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You can hire contractors in more than 185 countries and full-time employees in more than 80 countries and pay them in different currencies, which really matters because your next hire probably isn't local.

新员工会自动获得他们的笔记本电脑、所有账户和基于其角色的正确权限。有人离职时,所有权限都会立即取消。

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New hire gets their laptop, all accounts, correct permissions based on their role, all automatically. Someone leaves, everything gets deprovisioned instantly.

实时了解公司支出,不再需要等待费用报告,不再有预算意外。Rippling受到包括Cursor、Berry、Chz.com和Liquid Death在内的20,000多家各行各业公司的信任。

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Realtime visibility into company spending. No more waiting for expense reports. No more budget surprises. Rippling is trusted by more than 20,000 companies across a range of industries including cursor, berry, chz.com, and liquid death.

你堆栈中的每一个碎片化系统都在阻碍执行。Rippling提供四个核心系统来端到端管理你的全体员工:人力资源、薪资、IT和支出管理。

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Every fragmented system in your stack is holding back execution. Rippling provides four core systems to manage your entire staff end to end. HR, payroll, IT, and spend management.

所有系统相互连接,全部自动化,帮助你增加储蓄并做出更好的决策。这就是你如何构建一个能够随着规模扩展而快速发展的公司。

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All connected, all automated, helping you increase savings and make better decisions. And that's how you build a company that can actually move as fast as you scale.

访问stopsad.com,看看SAD是否正在影响你的组织,以及你可以如何应对。

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Check out stops sad.com to see if SAD is affecting your organization and what you can do about it.

责任的经济学:AI无法替代的核心

核心问题不在于人工智能在技术上能否做到,而在于其责任范围。当专业人士每小时收费500美元时,客户支付的不是时间。

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The core issue isn't whether AI can technically do it. It's in the liability surface area. When professionals charge $500 per hour, clients aren't paying for the time.

他们支付的是在事情出错时,有人能承担法律和财务责任。这种责任空白造成了多重经济压力,摧毁了旨在取代专业人士的人工智能商业模式。

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They're paying for someone to carry legal and financial responsibility when things go wrong. This responsibility gap creates multiple economic pressures that destroy AI business models that are aimed at professional replacement.

从你进入谈判阶段开始,你所支付的就不是他们工作的时间。当然,他们可以按可计费小时收费,但律师如何定价取决于他们自己。

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From the point when you enter the phase of negotiations and onward, what you're paying for is not an hour of their time. Sure, they can charge you for billable hours, but it's up to the lawyer on how they price their work.

可以按小时计费,可以按固定费率,也可以是风险代理费。但你支付的是律师将承担的责任以及他们承诺交付的最终结果。

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It can be by the hour, it can be by a fixed rate or it can be a contingency fee. But what you are paying for is the responsibility that that lawyer is going to carry and the ultimate outcome that they promise to deliver.

当人工智能创始人着手取代昂贵的专业人士时,即使是针对狭窄的用例,例如回到我们的例子,当一位创始人说:“我们想自动化专门处理离婚案件的家庭律师的工作。”这已经很狭窄了。

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When AI founders embark on a journey to replace an expensive professionals even for a narrow use case. So going back to our example, when a founder says, "We want to automate the work of a family lawyer who specializes in divorce cases." This is already narrow.

不是所有律师,而是专门的家庭律师,而且在家庭律师中,只是那些专门处理离婚案件的。

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Not all lawyers out there but specifically family lawyers and the within the family lawyers just the ones who specialize in divorce cases.

但当他们这样做时,他们就开始玩弄风险转移机制,这暴露了专业人士替代的谬误。

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But when they do that they start playing with the riskshifting mechanism that exposes the professional replacement fallacy.

当涉及子女、共同财产或配偶赡养费问题时,律师必须预见并规划各种结果,并在给定限制条件下计算每一步,最重要的是,他们必须在具有约束力的协议或法庭文件中以记录律师(Council of Record: 负责记录和代表客户的律师)的身份签字。

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When children joint property a spousal support are at issue. The lawyer must anticipate and plan for all kinds of outcomes and calculate each step given the constraints and most importantly sign their name as council of record on binding agreements or court filings.

如果子女的监护安排不符合他们的最佳利益,律师将面临调查、纪律听证会,甚至可能被停职或吊销执照。

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If the child's custody arrangement does not serve their best interests, lawyers face investigations, disciplinary hearings, and possible suspension or even disbarment.

仅为应对这些监管和律师协会的行动,法律费用就可能在5万到20万美元以上,还不包括任何判给客户的赔偿。

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Defending against these regulatory and bar actions can cost between 50 to 200 plus,000 in legal fees alone, not counting any client compensation awarded.

如果一份措辞不当的赡养令导致客户长期财务受损,律师的保险公司通常会支付赔偿。安大略省最低要求的责任保险范围是100万美元,许多律所的保额在200万到600万美元之间。

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If a poorly worded support order results in long-term financial harm to the client, the lawyer's insurer typically pays for damages. The minimum required liability coverage in Ontario is $1 million, and many firms carry between $2 to $6 million.

相比之下,人工智能平台通常将供应商责任上限设定为年度合同价值,通常每个客户或每项业务仅在1万到10万美元之间。

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In contrast, AI platforms typically cap vendor liability at the annual contract value, often just between 10 to $100,000 per client or per business.

大多数法律科技领域的人工智能产品规定,如果其软件遗漏资产或错误计算支持,退款仅限于订阅费,不覆盖实际损失。

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Most AI products in legal tech stipulate that if their software misses an asset or miscalculate support, the refund is limited to the subscription fee and no coverage of actual losses.

人工智能工具不为客户提供职业责任保险(Malpractice Insurance: 针对专业人士因疏忽或错误造成的损害提供赔偿的保险)。如果一个错误使客户损失50万美元,客户将承担风险和成本。

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AI tools do not provide malpractice insurance for clients. If an error costs the client $500,000, the client bears the risk and cost.

没有百万美元的保险覆盖,没有保险保证,也没有针对人工智能供应商的监管追索权。

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There is no million-doll coverage, there is no insurance guarantee and no regulatory recourse against the AI vendor.

人工智能平台在谈判阶段将永远输给真正的专业人士,因为它们从不以记录律师的身份签字,不承担监管责任,并且将经济风险限制在微不足道的金额,这使得客户不得不承担财务、监管和法律责任。

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AI platforms will always lose to a real professional in the negotiation stage because they never sign as council of record do not hold regulatory responsibility and cap economic risk at trivial sums which leaves the client to absorb financial regulatory and legal responsibility and responsibility is a dimension that cannot be automated.

责任是一个无法自动化的维度。因为如果人工智能以一种让你放弃所有积蓄给前伴侣的方式解决了你的离婚案件,人工智能不会承担责任。

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Because if AI resolves your divorce case in a way that would make you give up all of your life savings in favor of your former partner, AI won't take responsibility.

但律师会。如果你的业务让你陷入金融欺诈的境地,而人工智能在努力讨好你时没有发现这一点,人工智能不会支付罚款,但会计师事务所会。

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A lawyer will. If your business puts you in the territory of financial fraud and AI hasn't caught that while trying so hard to flatter you, AI won't pay the fine, but an accounting firm will.

责任的经济学远远超出了责任和职业责任保险的范围。真正微妙的是政治。

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The economics of responsibility extend far beyond liability and malpractice coverage. The one that is really delicate is politics.

驾驭政治、高风险和充满情感的局势的能力是专业人士相对于人工智能拥有的最大经济护城河(Economic Moat: 商业上的竞争优势)。

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The ability to navigate politics and high stakes and emotionally charged situations is the biggest economic mode that professionals have over AI.

现在让我们回到离婚的例子。除了房地产、监护权、财务方面,在家庭政治、文化敏感性和同一家庭内的权力动态背景下考虑所有这些事情非常重要。

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Now let's go back to our divorce example. Apart from real estate, custody, financial aspects, it is very important to consider all of these things within the context of family politics, cultural sensitivities and power dynamics within the same family.

经验丰富的家庭律师了解代际等级、文化禁忌、家庭联盟模式、宗教社区压力以及人工智能在技术上可以学习但无法在更大背景下可靠预测或考虑的文化荣誉概念。

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Experienced family lawyers understand generational hierarchies, cultural taboss, family alliance patterns, religious community pressures, and cultural concepts of honor that AI technically can learn, but it will not predict or consider that within a larger context reliably.

处理这些动态不当的经济后果不仅仅是法律或财务上的。它可能导致家庭关系的破坏和跨越几代人的文化疏离。

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The economic consequences of mishandling these dynamics isn't just legal or financial. It's a family relationship destruction and cultural alienation that can span generations.

除此之外,还有权力不平衡、微妙的恐吓模式、财务滥用策略和情感操纵。

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On top of it, power imbalances, subtle intimidation patterns, financial abuse tactics, and emotional manipulation.

律师能识别出配偶何时利用财务复杂性来维持控制,或者何时子女监护权成为武器。

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Lawyers recognize when one spouse uses financial complexity to maintain control or when child custody becomes a weapon.

另一方面,人工智能无法当场解读微表情,也无法评估非正式、未记录的权力结构或最高薪人士的意见。

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AI on the other hand cannot read micro expressions on the spot or assess informal undocumented power structures or the highest paid person's opinion.

错过这些信号的代价是持续的虐待、财务损害和心理伤害,其长期后果价值数百万美元。

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The cost of missing these signals is continued abuse, financial harm, and psychological damage worth millions in long-term consequences.

这就是为什么取代专业人士的商业模式会崩溃,因为它试图取代“时间”。但你支付的不是时间,而是责任。

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This is why replace the professional business model simply collapses because it's trying to replace hours. But what you're paying for are not the hours. It's the responsibility.

因此,如果你想在可预见的未来构建一个基于自动化专业服务的可持续人工智能原生业务,并拥有一个可以实际开始测试的工作产品,你需要关注第一个类别。

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So if you're trying to build a sustainable AI native business based on automating professional services within a foreseeable future and have a working product that you can actually start testing, you want to be looking at the first bucket.

现在让我们谈谈如何构建一个十亿美元级的人工智能业务。

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And now let's talk about how to build a billion-dollar AI business.

如何构建十亿美元级AI业务

你必须100%投入到专业人士的生活中,研究他们日常的工作。你必须非常了解他们所做的一切,以至于你基本上可以成为他们的影子。

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You emerge 100% of yourself in a specialist's life and study their day-to-day routine. You have to know what they do so well that you can basically become their shadow.

当你能够一步步地描绘出他们的工作,并从他们重复的事情中找出模式时,选择其中一个步骤。

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And when you're at a point when you're able to map out their work step by step and draw patterns from repetitive things that they do, pick one step in this entire thing.

你选择客户支付最多、而律师、会计师或任何其他专业人士在做这项行政工作上浪费最多时间的那个步骤。然后你尝试看看是否可以自动化它。

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You pick one step when a client is paying the most and the lawyer or accountant or any other kind of specialist is losing the most time by doing this admin work. And then you try and see if you can automate that.

你将从一开始就为你的产品赢得高采用率,因为它对双方都有利。你对专业人士的卖点是他们将在这个步骤上花费更少的时间,并且可以更快地完成更多工作,从而获得更多客户。

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You would be priming your product for a high adoption from the very start because it goes both ways. Your selling point for the specialist is that they're going to spend less time on this step and can probably do more work faster and therefore get more clients.

对客户的好处是他们能更快地获得结果,并可能节省成本。要做到这一点,我建议你真正缩小你的范围。狭窄就是护城河(Moat: 商业上的竞争优势)。

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And the benefit for the client is that they get results faster and with potential cost savings. To do this, I suggest that you really narrow down your scope. Narrow is the moat.

自动化法律科技中复杂的流程具有巨大的商业潜力,特别是当目标是劳动密集型或容易出错的任务,这些任务被认为是枯燥或对人工智能极具挑战性的。

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Automating difficult workflows in legal tech comes with immense business potential, especially when targeting labor intensive or errorprone tasks considered boring or extremely challenging for AI.

即使自动化一个受法规和细微差别困扰的步骤中的一部分,也能为你带来独角兽价值业务(Unicorn Value Business: 指估值超过10亿美元的初创公司),因为你将为律师事务所等节省大量资金,并使其能够实现仅靠人工无法达到的规模。

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Automating even a part of the step, a step that is plagued by regulation and nuance, can bring you a unicorn value business because you would be saving for example law firms a lot of money and enabling scaling at a level that was not possible for them with manual labor alone.

但有一个注意事项,以下是我在评估人工智能原生业务创意时会建议牢记的。计算外包这项工作的成本。

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But there is one caveat and here is what I would recommend to keep in mind when assessing an idea for an AI native business. Do the math on how much it would cost to outsource this work.

如果专业人士需要帮助,并且他们要在应用程序或外包资源之间选择委托对象,你的产品与外包人工相比如何,它能产生什么样的影响?

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If a specialist needs help and they're choosing between an app or an outsourced resource to delegate to. How does your product compare and what kind of impact it's creating compared to an outsourced human?

因为如果你正在自动化的流程可以由初级专业人士完成,那么你的产品价值就会暴跌,因为你没有护城河。

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Because if the process that you're automating can be done by a junior specialist, the value of your product plummets because you don't have a moat.

就像许多GPT封装应用(GPT wrappers: 基于GPT等大型语言模型构建,提供特定功能或用户界面的应用)没有护城河一样,因为如果Google、Anthropic或OpenAI推出一个原生产品来覆盖封装应用所围绕的用例,你的产品可能因为功能有限而没有护城河,而这些功能一个更便宜的人工就能完成。

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Just like lots of GPT rappers don't have a mode because if Google, Anthropic or OpenAI introduce a native product that will cover the use case that the rapper is built around, your product may not have a moat due to a limited functionality that a cheaper human can do.

现在我将向你抛出两个十亿美元级的商业创意。一个来自法律领域,一个来自金融领域。希望它们能很好地说明我所说的需要自动化的“一个步骤”是什么意思。

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And now I'm going to throw two business ideas, billiondoll business ideas at you. One from the legal and one from the finance space. And hopefully they will be a good illustration of what I mean by that one step that needs to be automated.

案例研究一:研发税收抵免文档自动化

对于这个例子,我要感谢我们的订阅者Christina。她是一位在纽约工作的财务规划与分析专业人士,她非常乐意帮助我们提供一个金融行业具体创意的例子。非常感谢你,Christina。

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For this example, I would like to thank our subscriber. Her name is Christina. She's a financial planning and analysis professional based in New York who was kind enough to help us with a concrete example of an idea in the finance industry. Thank you very much, Christina.

就背景而言,研发税收抵免(R&D Tax Credit: 旨在鼓励企业进行研发活动而提供的税收优惠)文档是你必须向政府提供的文书和记录保存过程,以证明你的公司因进行研发工作而应获得资金返还。

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For context, R&D tax credit documentation is the process of paperwork and recordkeeping that you must provide to the government to prove that your company deserves money back for doing research and development work.

这样想:政府希望鼓励公司创新和构建令人惊叹的人工智能。因此,他们提供税收抵免,基本上是你的税收折扣,甚至现金返还。

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Think of it this way. The government wants to encourage companies to innovate and build mind-blowing AI. So, they offer a tax credit, basically a discount on your taxes and even cash back.

它提供给那些花钱解决技术问题的公司。但要获得这笔钱,你需要证明你确实进行了符合条件的研发工作。

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And it offers it to companies that spend money trying to solve technical problems. But to get the money, you need to prove that you actually did qualifying R&D work.

为了证明这一点,公司每年花费5万到15万美元在税务顾问上,因为手动记录符合条件的活动、跟踪员工时间以及维护审计追踪记录异常复杂。

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To prove this, companies spend between 50 and $150,000 a year on tax consultants because documenting qualifying activities, tracking employee time, and maintaining audit trails is impossibly complex when done manually.

一个简单的用例:你的软件公司花费200万美元用于工程师工资,构建一项新的前沿人工智能功能。政府说:“太棒了。我们将把这笔支出的6%到10%作为税收抵免返还给你。”

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A simple use case, your software company spends $2 million on engineer salaries, building a new bleeding edge AI feature. The government says, "Great. We'll give you back 6 to 10% of that spending as a tax credit."

所以,你可以获得12万到20万美元的返还。现在,你需要记录并证明你的工程师确实解决了技术不确定性,他们尝试了不同的方法,并且他们所做的工作涉及真正的工程研究。

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So, you could get between $120 to $200,000 back. Now, you need to document and prove that your engineers were actually solving technical uncertainties. They experimented with different approaches, and that the work that they did involved real engineering research.

让我们快速估算一下这个商业机会。北美有50万多家公司从事符合条件的研发活动,构成了总可寻址市场(Total Addressable Market: 某个产品或服务在理想情况下可以达到的最大市场规模)。

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Let's do a quick estimation of this business opportunity. The total addressable market is comprised of 500,000 plus companies in North America conducting qualifying R&D activities.

其中20万家公司目前申请研发抵免,每年在咨询服务上花费150亿美元。

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200,000 of those companies currently claim R&D credits and they spend $15 billion annually on consulting services.

30万家公司符合条件,但由于文档过于复杂而未申请研发税收抵免。

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300,000 companies are eligible, but they don't proceed with R&D tax credit because the documentation is very complex.

研发税收抵免市场在2024年估值为52.2亿美元,预计到2033年将增长到91亿美元。北美市场占据了该市场约60%的份额。

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The R&D tax credit market is valued at $5.2 2 billion in 2024 and projected to grow to 9.1 billion by 2033. North American market takes up about 60% of this market.

以下是该领域的一些自动化机会:第一,公司必须追溯性地重建哪些员工参与了符合条件的研发项目以及花费了多少小时。目前,这都是手动完成的。

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And here are some automation opportunities in this space. Number one, companies must reconstruct retrospectively which employees worked on qualifying R&D projects and how many hours were spent. Currently, this is being done manually.

第二,公司必须将工资成本、云计算费用、材料和承包商付款与特定的研发项目关联起来。这每年花费公司1万到2.5万美元的会计和顾问时间。目前,这都是手动完成的。

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Number two, companies must correlate payroll costs, cloud computing expenses, materials, and contractor payments to specific R&D projects. This cost companies between 10 and $25,000 annually in accounting and consultant time. This is currently being done manually.

加拿大税务局(CRA: Canada Revenue Agency)和美国国税局(IRS: Internal Revenue Service)要求提供包含适当文档的全面审计追踪记录。这每年花费公司5千到1.5万美元的行政费用。这同样是手动完成的。

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The CRA and IRS require comprehensive audit trails with proper documentation. This costs companies between 5 and $15,000 annually in administrative fees. This is also being done manually.

回到我的建议,只解决其中一个步骤,这就是你的十亿美元级人工智能业务。想让我证明数十亿美元从何而来吗?一个快速的投资回报率(ROI: Return on Investment)分析。

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Going back to my suggestion, with one step, solve one of these and there's your billion-dollar AI business. Want me to prove where billions come from? A quick ROI analysis.

客户投资:每年1.5万美元用于自动化平台。客户成本节省:每年6万美元,相比手动咨询。客户投资回报率是四倍回报,投资回收期为3个月。

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Customer investment, $15,000 annually for automation platform. Customer cost savings, $60,000 annually versus manual consulting. The customer ROI is four times return with a 3-month payback period.

直接成本节省:咨询费减少80%,内部文档时间减少90%。最后但同样重要的是,风险缓解,这也可以为你节省大量资金。

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for the direct cost savings, 80% reduction in consultant fees, 90% reduction in internal time spent in documentation, and last but not least, risk mitigation, which can also cost you a lot of money.

这些步骤都不会取代税务顾问。税务顾问仍然需要解释法规、评估风险承受能力并签署索赔,但人工智能可以自动化80%的重复性行政文档工作。

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None of these steps replace tax advisors. Tax advisers still need to interpret regulations, assess risk tolerance, and sign off on claims, but AI can automate 80% of repetitive admin documentation work.

案例研究二:知识产权诉讼自动化

第二个例子是知识产权诉讼自动化。对于这个例子,我将从一个案例开始。

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Example number two, automation for intellectual property litigations. For this one, I'm going to start with an example.

想象一下,苹果公司(Apple)起诉谷歌公司(Google),声称Pixel手机侵犯了苹果的“滑动解锁”专利。为了自卫,谷歌的律师必须分析苹果专利的专利审查历史(Patent Prosecution History: 专利从首次申请到最终授权过程中所有官方文件和往来记录),以寻找弱点。

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Imagine that Apple sues Google, claiming that the Pixel phones infringe Apple's slide to unlock patent. To defend themselves, Google's lawyers must analyze the prosecution history of Apple's patent to find weaknesses. In this context, patent prosecution history is the detailed review of every document creating during a patent's journey through the US patent and trademark office from initial application to final grant.

在这种情况下,专利审查历史是对专利从最初申请到最终授权过程中,在美国专利商标局(US Patent and Trademark Office)产生的每一份文件的详细审查。这包括所有官方行动、权利要求修改、审查员审查、申请人回复,这些都显示了专利是如何演变以及为获得批准提出了哪些论点。

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This includes all office actions, claim amendments, examiner reviews, applicant responses that show how the patent evolved, and what arguments were made to secure approval.

谷歌的律师需要发现的是,苹果在审查过程中是否最初主张了更广泛的内容,然后又缩小了范围。审查员引用了哪些现有技术(Prior Art: 在专利申请日之前已公开存在的所有知识和技术),迫使苹果修改了他们的权利要求?

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What Google's lawyers need to discover is whether Apple has originally claimed something broader during prosecution and then narrowed it down. What prior art did the examiner site that forced Apple to amend their claims?

苹果在审查过程中是否有任何声明限制了专利的解释范围?苹果在专利中主张的内容与他们在对谷歌的诉讼中主张的内容之间是否存在任何不一致?

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Did Apple make any statements during prosecution that limit how broadly the patent can be interpreted? Are there any inconsistencies between what Apple argued to have as part of the patent and what they're claiming in the lawsuit against Google?

一个典型的专利诉讼案件需要分析大约25项专利。每个案件仅专利审查历史分析的成本就高达42万美元。

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A typical patent litigation case requires about 25 patents to be analyzed. Cost per case $420,000 just for the prosecution history analysis.

每项重大案件所需时间为800律师小时,每小时600美元。文件量惊人,每个案件超过1200页。

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The required time is 800 attorney hours per major case at $600 per hour. The document volume is insane. 1,200 plus pages per case.

现在来看自动化领域。第一,自动化文档处理:提取和组织所有官方行动、回复和修改。创建时间轴并生成权利要求比较图,显示从原始权利要求到最终权利要求的演变。

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Now onto the automation areas. Number one, automated document processing. extracting and organizing all office actions, responses, and amendments. Creating chronological timelines and generating claim comparison charts showing evolution from original to final claims.

第二,权利要求分析:自动解析权利要求语言并识别修改。通过自然语言处理将修改映射到审查员的驳回意见。

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Number two, claim analysis. Parse claim language and identify amendments automatically. Map amendments to examiner rejections through natural language processing.

第三,现有技术关联。这里的现有技术包括以前授予的专利、科学期刊文章、学术论文、商业产品或公开演示,以及本质上在发明人提交专利之前公众可以获取的任何信息。

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And number three, prior art correlation. Prior art in this case covers previously granted patents, scientific journal articles, academic thesis, commercial products or public demonstrations, and essentially any information that was accessible to the public before the inventor filed the patent.

另一个领域是提取所有引用的现有技术并链接到具体的驳回意见。最后,分析申请人的区别论点并生成现有技术比较图。

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Another area is extracting all cited prior art and linking to specific rejections. And lastly, analyzing applicants distinguished arguments and generating prior art comparison charts.

自动化的潜力:时间减少75%,成本从每个案件48万美元降至12万美元。速度:专利审查历史分析从数月缩短到数周。

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the potential for automation. Time reduction 75% cost reduction from $480,000 to 120 per case. Speed weeks instead of months to complete prosecution history analysis.

最后,对机会的快速估算:美国每年提起5500起专利案件。每年仅在专利审查历史分析上就花费23亿美元。

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And lastly, a quick estimate of the opportunity. 5,500 patent cases filed annually in the US. $2.3 billion spent annually on just the prosecution history analysis.

5万家拥有大量专利组合的公司需要持续分析。每年投资组合管理市场规模为37.5亿美元,总可寻址市场为61亿美元。

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50,000 companies with large patent portfolios need ongoing analysis. $3.75 billion on annual portfolio management market and the total addressable market 6.1 billion.

美国企业界充满了这样的例子。经验法则是,你应该选择那些工作不仅仅是任务的行业。任何涉及各种咨询能力的职业,例如谈判、战略制定、涉及风险的长期规划。

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American enterprise world is full of examples like these. And the rule of thumb is that you should go for industries where work isn't just tasks. Any occupation that involves consulting in various capacities such as negotiation, strategizing, long-term planning that involves risk.

总结:AI商业成功的关键原则

我以前说过,我再说一遍。最好的例子是那些枯燥、传统、经典、受监管的行业:金融、医疗保健、会计、法律。

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I've said this before and I'll say it again. The best examples are boring, traditional, classic, regulated industries, finance, healthcare, accounting, legal, and stick to these rules.

并坚持这些规则:选择一个枯燥的传统行业。你可以找到一个在该行业工作了几十年的人,或者你可以自己去那个行业工作一段时间。

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Pick a boring traditional industry. You can either find someone who has spent decades working in it, or you can go to that industry and work in it yourself.

通常,最好的创始人是那些真正尝试在该行业工作过一段时间的人。专注于提高昂贵专业人士的效率,并缩小你的关注范围。

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Usually, the best founders are the ones who actually tried working in the industry for a while. Focus on making expensive professionals more efficient and narrow down your focus.

不要低估他们工作中涉及的细微差别和法规,仅仅因为该行业是基于文本的,就认为你可以自动化一切。

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Do not underestimate the nuance and regulation that goes into their job thinking that you can automate it all only because the industry is textbased.

当然,法律是基于文本的,在法律程序中一切都会被记录下来。但在我们谈论法规之前,请检查你的假设。

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Sure, laws are textbased and in the legal process everything gets documented. But even before we get to the notion of regulations, check your assumptions.

例如,关于有多少数据可以公开用于训练你的模型的假设。事实上,我的一位密友为法庭做音频转录,这个行业并没有消亡。

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For example, the assumptions around how much data is publicly available to train your model. In fact, my close friend does audio transcriptions for a court and that industry is not dying.

在任何视频或音频人工智能软件都可以记录、转录并连接到各种工作流程的时代,法院由于隐私原因不允许使用这些应用程序。

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In the age when any video or audio AI software records, transcribes and connects to various agendic workflows, the courts are not allowed to use those apps due to privacy reasons.

自动化小型常规工作流程,而不是核心的问责制、责任或需要高情商的技能,例如公司政治。

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Automate small routine workflows, not core accountability, responsibility or skills that require high emotional intelligence such as corporate politics.

“时间”很容易自动化,“后果”和“责任”则不然。这就是为什么每小时500美元胜过每月20美元。

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Hours are easy to automate. consequence and responsibility aren't. That is why $500 an hour beats $20 a month.

要构建一个盈利的产品,你不需要自动化整个工作。你需要一个狭窄、高风险的步骤,它与问责制并存。

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To build a profitable product, you don't need to automate the entire job. You need one narrow, highstake step that sits beside accountability.

掌握这个步骤,并构建一个端到端解决这个步骤的产品。做到这一点,利润就会随之而来。我们希望这有所帮助。下次再见。

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Own that step and build a product that solves that step from end to end. Do that and the margins will follow. We hope this was helpful. We'll see you next time.

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

公司/组织: Apple, Google, CRA, IRS

产品/模型: GPT

关键字: ai-business-model automation-strategy business market risk