当前市场宏观展望:创纪录高位下的机遇与风险
Amit: 好的,我们有很多话题要谈。感谢大家又一周来到 Tech Bros。我想我们上周错过了,因为是排灯节,所以我上周没能参加,但我们回来了。我想让我们从对市场的初步看法开始。明天有 SoFi 的财报,我们会谈到。还有一些关于 Hood 和 Nvidia 的更新。但 Roy,我们从你开始。标普500指数创下历史新高,你感觉如何?
View/Hide Original English
Amit: All right, we got a lot to talk about. Thank you everybody for being here for another week of Tech Bros. I think we missed last week because Oh, yeah. It was Dvali. So, I couldn't make it last week, but uh we are back and I think let's get started off with raw thoughts on the market. We got SoFi earnings tomorrow. We'll talk about that. Got some hood updates, some Nvidia stuff, but I mean Roy, we'll start with you. Uh S&P alltime highs. How are you feeling?
Roy: 是的,这让我感到震惊,我早些时候也跟你指出了这一点,我们在恐惧与贪婪指数(Fear and Greed Index: 一种衡量市场情绪的指标,综合了多个市场动态变量)上处于历史高位,但情绪却是恐惧。当然,这个指数可能会转向中性,然后是贪婪,如果我们继续上涨的话。但在上升趋势中,处于极度恐惧或恐惧状态一段时间并不少见。但在历史高位时,这有点令人惊讶。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: It is shocking to me and I pointed this out with uh with you earlier that we are at all-time highs in the fear and greed index. I'll I'll throw this up here or I'll I'll ask you to throw it up is fear. Now, this can move and probably will move to neutral and then to greed, you know, if if we continue moving up. But in an uptrend, it's not too uncommon to see, you know, be an extreme fear of fear for a little while. But at all-time highs, it's a little bit surprising.
Roy: 当然,这里有真正的催化剂。关税问题是一件大事。我确实觉得市场可能正在忽视或忽略一些潜在的短期痛苦,特别是与政府关门、SNAP 福利(Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program: 美国补充营养援助计划,即食品券)和学生贷款等问题有关。但是,今天是个有趣的日子。许多获得买盘的公司也是今天公布良好财报的大公司。本周,Tanner 指出,Seth Gild 也在 Robbo 2 上提到,标普500指数中约40%的公司本周将公布财报。我说对了吗,Tanner?
View/Hide Original English
Roy: Of course, there's there's real catalysts. Uh tariff stuff is a big thing. I do feel like that the market might be ignoring or overlooking some potential near-term pain uh with specifically with the government shutdown, SNAP benefits, student loans, and that sort of thing, too. But, uh I mean, it's a fun day. A lot of these companies too uh that are getting uh the bids are massive companies posting good earnings today. This week uh Tanner pointed out Seth Gild also did on Robbo 2 that 40 something% of companies in the S&P 500 uh are reporting earnings this week. So did I get that right Tanner?
Tanner: 可能有那么高。我只是说仅五家公司就占了24%。我甚至没有看所有其他将要报告的公司。可能确实有40%。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: It might be that high. I was just saying that it was 24% in just the five companies. I didn't even I didn't even uh look at all the other companies that are reporting. It probably is 40%.
Roy: 是的,让我找一下。没错,按市值计算,42%的标普公司将公布财报。所以是按市值,而不是公司数量。我漏掉了那部分。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: Yeah. Let me let me find that. Yeah, 42% of S&P companies by market cap reporting earnings. So, it's by market cap, not by number of companies. So, it's it's I I miss that part.
Tanner: 但最终,市场过山车效应依然存在,但本周确实决定了财报的实际好坏,因为有42%的标普500公司。如果主流说法是“嘿,他们表现出色,人工智能是真的”,我们当然会再次听到这个说法。公司在增长,消费者方面没有真正的担忧。个别公司会试图归咎于此,但当你孤立无援时,市场只会忽视你,说“你太糟糕了。我们宁愿相信那些表现出色的公司。”我预计这可能就是我们将看到的情况。所以,我们可能会继续上涨,一直涨到圣诞老人来临的时候。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: But yeah, this this ultimately there will always be, you know, the roller coaster still in effect, but this week really is what determines how good earnings actually are with 42% S&P 500. If the um narrative is like, hey, they're crushing it. The AI is real, which we we'll hear that again, of course. Uh companies are growing. no real concerns with consumers, company here and there will try to blame that. But when you're in isolation, the market just ignores you and says, "You're terrible. We're gonna actually believe these companies that are killing it." And I expect that's probably what we're going to get. So, uh, we may continue on on a uptrend and rally all the way through Santa Claus time.
Amit: 在你发言之前,Tanner,我先简单谈谈我的看法。我认为现在正在发生的事情有三个要素。第一,周三将有降息。第二,周三有财报,微软、Meta、谷歌,然后周四是苹果和亚马逊。我希望所有这些公司都能大获成功,并延续趋势,证明我们应该以目前的估值进行交易。所以这两件事非常重要。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: Um, so before you speak, Tanner, I'm going to give my quick thoughts on this. I think there's three elements of what's going on right now. Number one, you have rate cuts coming up on Wednesday. Number two, you have earnings on Wednesday, Microsoft, Metagoo, then Apple, and Amazon on Thursday. I think all those companies hopefully crush and continue the trend to show that we should be trading at the multiples we're trading at. Um, so those are two really important things.
Amit: 然后是第三点,我认为这一点非常重要,需要重点强调,我也很好奇你们对此的看法。我们经历了一次3%的回调。而这3%的回调是五个月来的第一次。我想我们所有人都可以说我们需要这次回调。也许是因为特朗普关于中国的推文,或者是加密货币的杠杆,但我们需要它。比如八月和九月,我们几乎避免了哪怕1%的回调。所以你需要从系统中清除一些泡沫。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: And then number three, which I think is something that it really is important to to to to double down on, and I'm curious on your thoughts on this as well, guys. We had a 3% draw down. And that 3% draw down was the first draw down in five months. I think all of us can say we needed it. And maybe it was because of the Trump China tweets or whatever it was, crypto leverage, but it we needed it like August and September, we we avoided barely even a 1% draw down. And so you needed to get a little bit of froth out of the system.
Amit: 很多那些市值飙升到三四百亿美元,却没有实现任何盈利增长,甚至没有收入增长的公司,最终都受到了冲击。当然,它们没有被打击到归零的地步,我也不认为它们会归零,但它们确实受到了冲击。天哪,在过去几周这3%的回调之前,我们甚至迎来了meme股票ETF的回归。上一次发生这种情况,恰好是2021年的市场顶部。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: A lot of the names that were running to 30 40 billion dollar market caps that are not delivering any earnings growth, any even revenue, forget earnings. They ended up getting hit. Now, they didn't get hit to the point where they're going to zero. And I don't think they're going to zero, but they did get hit. I mean, for goodness sakes, we had a meme stock ETF come back before we had this 3% draw down over the past couple of weeks. Last time that happened was literally the top in 2021.
Amit: 所以我认为过去几周,很多人都感到不安,觉得“这感觉有泡沫。我们是不是要见顶了?是不是有太多的狂热和兴奋?”而所有这些都在过去几周被消除了。现在,你仍然有一些公司以相当激进的估值交易。我认为股市对于那些能实现增长以扩大估值的公司非常慷慨,而如果你无法实现增长,那将非常痛苦。但我认为它不像几周前那样是一个小丑市场,当时各种东西都在无缘无故地上涨。
View/Hide Original English
p class="english-text">Amit: So, I think there was a lot of uneasiness over the past couple of weeks from a lot of people around, hey, this feels frothy. Are we topping? Is there too much euphoria? Is there too much excitement? And all of that got wiped out over the past couple of weeks. Now, you still have companies trading at pretty aggressive multiples. And I think the stock market's very rewarding if you put up the growth to expand your multiple. It's very gut-wrenching if you can't put up the growth. But I don't think it's a clown market the way it was a couple weeks ago where things were just going up for the hell of going up.Amit: 我认为这一点,加上标普指数以一种相当稳健的方式回到历史高位,你还有即将到来的降息,本周大型科技公司有望实现盈利增长,而且一些泡沫已经被挤出。我认为这是我们在2025年全年所处的最健康的市场之一。我也很好奇你们对此的看法。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: And I think that along with the fact that the S&P is back to all-time highs in a pretty steady way, you've got rate cuts coming. You've got earnings growth hopefully from big tech coming this week and you've got some of that froth shaken out. I think this is one of the more healthier markets we've been in in all of 2025. And I'm curious on your thoughts on that as well.
Tanner: 不,我认为你总结得很好。我的意思是,我对我们目前的处境感到非常有信心。我喜欢正在达成的贸易协议。我不认为任何大的市场推动者会来炸毁标普500指数。所以每个人都想达成交易,他们想要好的经济。你知道,没有……嗯,我的意思是,总有战争在酝酿,但目前我没有看到任何真正迫在眉睫的全球性事件会拖累任何事情。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: No, I I think you summarized that well. I mean, I think I feel very confident in the position that we're in. Um, I like the trade deals that are coming through. I don't think that anyone uh any of the large market movers are here to blow up, you know, the the the S&P 500 right now. So, everyone wants to get deals done. They want good economies. you know, there there's no uh well, I mean, there's always a war brewing for sure, but there's no real um looming events that I think is going to draw anything down globally right now.
Tanner: 显然,情况可能很快改变,但降息会有所帮助。持续的降息,甚至谈论在2026年再降息一次,这对许多贷款组合购买者来说是件好事,特别是我们会谈到的 SoFi。但展望未来,这非常令人兴奋,我们谈论的不仅仅是一次降息。这可能是今年再降两次,但会持续到2026年。这是一个非常激动人心的事件。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: Um obviously things can change very quickly, but rate cuts are going to help. the continued rate cuts, even talk about an additional rate cut in 2026 is something for a lot of um loan book purchasers especially, we'll talk about SoFi, but but that's very exciting going forward that this is not just going to be, you know, one rate cut that we're talking about. This is potentially three more two this year, but but continuing into 2026. That's a very exciting uh ordeal that's happening.
Amit: 然后你还有中国正在与美国缓和关系,对吧?
View/Hide Original English
Amit: And and and then you got the Chinese that are deescalating with the US, right?
Roy: 是的。不,我同意你们的看法。这些都是真正的催化剂。健康且不断增长的公司继续表现良好。当然,也存在裂痕,如果你仔细观察,总能找到看跌的理由。看空者总是能做到这一点。亚马逊的裁员对任何受影响的人来说都不是好消息,但现实是,他们在过去四年里已经进行了类似的裁员,这将是第三次。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: Yeah. No, I I mean I agree with you guys. Like there's these are real catalysts. Uh the the companies that are healthy and growing continue to do well. There are, you know, there's cracks and you can always point and and if you look hard enough, you can find bearish things. Bears always manage to do that. You Amazon layoffs is not happy news for anybody that's affected, but I mean the reality is they've done similar layoffs over the last uh two or this will be the third time in the last four years.
Roy: 但是,是的,我认为这个财报季将和我们过去几个季度看到的一样,一切都很健康。我们已经看到银行公布了财报。消费者似乎处于健康状态,除了一些非常孤立的情况。也许,你知道,杰米·戴蒙说过,当你看到一只蟑螂时,可能还有更多。但我不知道我们至少在这个财报季还能看到多少。我认为这可能会等到明年,在圣诞季和假日消费之后。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: So, um, but, uh, yeah, I think that the earning season, uh, is going to be the same as what we've seen the last few quarters with everything's healthy. We already saw banks report. Consumers seem like they're in a healthy place except with some very isolated uh, maybe there's, you know, Jamie Diamond said there's there might be when you see one cockroach that there's probably more, but I don't know how many more we see at least this earnings. I think that might be something that waits until next year uh, after the Christmas season and holiday spend. Um but yeah,
Tanner: 我的理解是,那两家出现问题的区域性银行都与同一家从事欺诈行为的公司有关。我不记得那家公司的名字了,也许 Amit 会记得,但这可能是一个孤立的事件。可能根本不是蟑螂的情况。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: And my understanding is the two um you know, regional banks that ended up seeing problems also were both tied to the same uh company that was doing fraudulent actions. I don't remember the name of the the business. Maybe a MIT will, but it might be an isolated issue. It might not be uh a cockroach situation at all.
Roy: 说吧,Amit。我想说戴蒙在他的很多评论中都相当看跌。我想银行的CEO们可能天生如此。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: Go ahead, Roy. I was going to say Diamond Diamond is pretty bearish in a lot of his comments. I think banker CEOs maybe are just by nature, but
Tanner: 是的,他们必须谨慎,对吧?这是风险规避。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: Yeah, they they have to be cautious, right? It's it's risk aversion.
Amit: 是的,我不记得那家公司的确切名称,但我同意这看起来是孤立事件。我的意思是,在Zions和Western Alliance公布报告后,其他所有地区性银行的报告都很好。顺便说一句,Zions那次甚至不是正式财报,只是他们必须公布的初步数据。他们的财报非常出色,他们的信贷损失准备金——这决定了消费者的健康状况和你的贷款质量——所有这些地区性银行的数据都比预期好近1亿到1.5亿美元。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: Yeah, I I I don't remember the exact name of the companies, but I I do agree that look, I think it's isolated. I mean, every other regional that reported after that um Zion and Western Alliance report, which by the way, when Zion that wasn't even Zion's earnings, that was just like a preliminary thing they had to put out there. their earnings crushed and their provision for credit losses, which is what determines kind of how healthy the consumer is, how healthy your loans are. I mean, all these regionals came in better than expected by like almost 100 to $150 million.
Amit: 所以,对私人信贷的担忧似乎没有那么严重,也许未来会,但我们目前还没有太多证据表明它们非常严重。中国方面的事情似乎开始缓和。市场中虽然仍有泡沫,但很多已经被挤出,我认为人们对此感觉更健康了。盈利增长已经到来,然后你还有降息。我的意思是,我同意Roy的看法,肯定有看跌的理由,比如劳动力市场和经济中低端消费者的潜在裂痕。但在更广泛的宏观趋势上,我看不到大规模的看跌理由。然后你还有7.5万亿美元的资金在场外,这些资金不可避免地想要找到一个归宿。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: So, the private credit fears don't seem to be that aggressive, and maybe they will be, but we don't have that much evidence yet to say that they're super aggressive. Uh, the China stuff seems like it's starting to get relaxed. A lot of froth, although it's still in the market, has been taken out, which I think people are feeling a bit more uh healthy about. earnings growth is here and then you've got rate cuts. I mean, I don't see I agree with Roy. There's definitely things to be bearish about like the labor market and potential cracks in the economy with with the lower end of the consumer. But on a broader macro trend, I don't see the massive bare case. And then you have seven half trillion dollars on the sidelines, which inevitably is going to want to find a home.
Robinhood 产品线更新:封闭式基金、英国期货与银行业务预览
Amit: 好的,在我们进入 SoFi 之前,让我们快速讨论几个话题。你们知道什么是封闭式基金(Closed-end fund: 一种集合投资工具,发行固定数量的股份,这些股份在发行后在证券交易所进行交易,其价格由市场供求决定,可能高于或低于其资产净值)吗?
View/Hide Original English
Amit: Okay. So, before we get into SoFi, let's uh cover a couple of these quick topics. So, do do you guys know what a closed end fund is?
Roy: 不知道。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: No.
Tanner: 知道。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: Yes.
Amit: 好的,Tanner,请解释一下。我完全不知道。这是什么?这对 Robinhood 是利好吗?
View/Hide Original English
Amit: Okay. Tanner, please educate. I have no idea. What What is this? And is this bullish for Robin and now listening for
Tanner: 嗯,我刚看到这个新闻。所以,这是什么?你现在可以在 Robinhood 上投资近200只在美国上市的封闭式基金。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: uh Well, I I this is I just I'm just seeing this news. So, what is this? You can now invest in nearly 200 US listed close-end funds on dude.
Amit: 我知道 SoFi 明天有财报,但你难道就一点都不关注 Robinhood 的更新吗?你是不是……你直播的标题都像是“SoFi 前夜”,搞得跟过圣诞节一样。你完全不关心 Robinhood。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: I know SoFi earnings are tomorrow, but are you are you just not keeping up with any of the Robin an Hood update? Like, are you bad? Are you the freaking title of your live stream is like was the night before sofi like it's freaking Christmas. You're not caring about Robin Hood at all. You just like
Tanner: Vlad 发推了。Vlad 发推了。把他的通知打开,他一说话就弹出来。拜托。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: Vlad tweeted it. Vlad tweeted it. Have that on notifications. Pop it up anytime he says something. Come on.
Amit: 这家伙是假的,兄弟。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: This guy's fake, bro.
Tanner: 我没看到。我看到那个了。你们看到他们为英国客户推出了期货吗?
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: I I didn't see it. I saw that. Did you guys see that they uh put out futures for UK customers?
Amit: 好的。我没看到那个。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: Okay. I didn't see that
Tanner: 是的,是的。就是这个意思。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's what I mean.
Amit: 别光刷 X,偶尔也去看看他们的新闻稿。好吧。嗯,我没看到那个。听起来,我不知道封闭式基金是什么,但本质上它只是意味着有一定数量的流通股。这就是它的全部意思,他们不会再创造新的股份。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: Get off X and actually go to their press releases one time. Uh, okay. So, um, I didn't see that. What it sounds, I don't know what the the close-end funds are, but essentially it just means that there's a certain amount of outstanding shares. That that's all that that means that they're not recreating new shares.
Tanner: 嗯,所以基本上,对于每一份流通股,都需要有一个买家。所以,如果你把钱投入那个基金,新的买家会推高价格,而不是像稳定币那样,通过创造新的股份来保持价格稳定。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: Um, so essentially that that for every, you know, share that's outstanding, there needs to be a buyer of it. So, if you end up putting money into that fund, new buyers drive the price up rather than them creating new um shares in order to keep the price stable, like a stable coin, for example.
Amit: 我不骗你,不是因为你的解释,但我还是不知道什么是封闭式……
View/Hide Original English
Amit: I'm not going to lie, it's not because of your explanation, but I still have no clue what a clos
Tanner: 我的解释很烂,但它只是意味着有一个固定的数量,比如封闭式基金就意味着有一定数量的流通股,而且他们不会再发行新的股份。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: my explanation sucks, but it just it just means that there's a certain amount like closing fund just means that there's a certain amount of outstanding shares and that
Amit: 但这些是像共同基金之类的东西吗?为什么它们出现在 Robinhood 上有什么意义?
View/Hide Original English
Amit: But are these like mutual funds or like why? They can be of them coming on Robinet like what's
Tanner: 至少据我所知,封闭式基金可以是共同基金,但它们并非相互排斥。封闭式基金可以有多种不同形式,但……是的,那可以是 Robin Hood Ventures,可以是私募股权,可以是……有很多种封闭式基金。它只是意味着有一个固定的数量,他们不会发行新的股份。只有一定数量的股份在流通,这就是封闭的含义。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: at least the way that I know of it a closen fund can be a mutual fund but they're not mutually exclusive there could be multiple different versions of what a close-end fund is but um you know that can be yeah Robin Hood Ventures that could be private equity that could be like there's a ton of closend funds it just means that there's a certain amount that they're not going to issue new shares there's only a certain amount of shares that's in that's the closed
Amit: 好的。嗯,就像 Curtis 说的,它们不会稀释。只是固定数量的股份。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: Okay. Well, as Curtis said, they won't dilute. It's just a certain amount of shares.
Roy: 所以,这至少……我对这个的理解非常有限。所以,发布400个这样的基金,这不像是“哦,天哪,这太棒了”。这只是另一个不错的补充。你会这么看吗,Tanner?
View/Hide Original English
Roy: So, this is at least I I have like a very very limited understanding of this. So, um releasing 400 of these, this isn't like a oh man, this is amaz It's another nice ad. Uh is that how you would see it, Tanner, or
Tanner: 嗯,我不知道这些基金是什么。所以对我来说,这听起来像是他们增加了某种版本的共同基金。但在加拿大,我们会说你增加了400个共同基金。但对我来说,这听起来像是美国公司的措辞和我所知道的有所不同。你知道,我们不会说,“嘿,这些是可供购买的封闭式基金”。这更像是某个基金的特征。所以我甚至不太清楚。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: Well, it I don't know what the funds are. So, so to me this sounds like some version of they are adding mutual funds, but in Canada we would say that you're adding 400 mutual funds, but to me this sounds like a difference of of the way, you know, US companies are wording it versus what I know, which is can, you know, we wouldn't say, hey, these are closed end funds for purchase. That's just like the the characteristic of a certain fund. So to me, I don't even really know.
Amit: 它不是一个名词,更像是一个形容词,用来描述基金的性质。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: It's not a noun. It's almost like an adjective to an extent of what the fund
Tanner: 是的。就像,这个基金可以是一个封闭式基金。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: Yeah. Like like the fund can be a closed end fund, right?
Roy: 顺便说一下,这是另一个公告。Robinhood 推出了期货交易。有趣的是,我们还没有看到 ISAs 和 SIPs,除非我错过了。我以为它们今年会推出。虽然还有些时间。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: Yeah. Here's that other announcement by the way. Robin Hood launches futures. It's kind of interesting that we haven't seen ISIS and SIPs yet unless I've missed those. Um I thought that they were supposed to come out this year. There's still some time left, but yeah.
Amit: 是的,我认为他们还没有完全推出那些。但是,期货交易是好事。我确实认为英国客户现在除了期货交易之外还想要很多其他东西,但看到它推出是件好事。有人说,所以你是在赌基金的底层资产,还是在赌投资组合的管理方式?这也是我的理解。对我来说,这就像是以特定方式管理的共同基金,比如 Vanguard、Fidelity,他们有很多……很多人不离开那些平台转到 Robinhood,因为你无法转移你的基金,因为它们是那些券商专有的。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: Yeah. I I don't think they have those yet. But look, futures trading is good. I I I do think UK customers want a lot of other things right now besides futures trading but it is good to uh to see that out there. Uh someone says so here are you betting that the underlying assets of the fund but on how the portfolio is being managed? That's my understanding of it as well. Like to me it's just mutual funds that are managed in a particular way like like Vanguard, Fidelity, they have a lot of the I a lot of people don't leave those platforms to Robin Hood because you can't transfer your your funds uh because they're proprietary to those brokerages.
Tanner: 封闭式基金几乎不存在了。我的意思是,绝大部分资金都在开放式基金里。如果你想去买一个指数基金,比如,这是一个开放式基金,你买入QQQ之类的,然后他们拿你的钱去买那些基金。好的?他们购买底层资产。但封闭式基金就像是,那个基金会上涨是因为买入压力大于卖出压力。所以,它们实际上并不常见。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: Closing funds are almost like they're almost non-existent. I mean for the most part all the money is in open-end funds. If you want to go out and buy an index fund, for example, which is an open-end fund, you buy at the, you know, QQQ or whatever, and then they take your money and go and buy those funds. Okay? They they they buy the underlying assets. But a closedend fund is like that fund will go up because there's more buying pressure than there is selling pressure. So, they're actually really not common.
Amit: 是的,这很公平。这是平台上的另一种资产,但并不是什么大事。所以你有了这个,你有了 Robinhood 为英国客户提供的期货,这很好。然后最后一个更新是,看,银行业务还没有正式推出,但人们正在获得它的预览版。聊天室里的一些人可能已经收到了银行业务的预览。从我们看到的图片来看,如果你设置了直接存款,他们会给你基本上 3.75% 的年收益率(APY: Annual Percentage Yield,考虑到复利效应的年化利率)。所以我想更广泛的问题是,Roy,我们从你开始,我们认为 2026 年,除了 Cortex 之外,最大的产品会是银行业务吗?
View/Hide Original English
Amit: Yeah, that's fair. uh it's another asset to the platform but it's not the biggest deal in the world. So you had that you had Robin Hood uh UK futures for uh for customers which was nice and then the the other final update is uh look banking is not officially out yet but people are getting a preview of it. Some of you guys in the chat might have gotten a preview of banking and uh from the pictures that we've seen they're giving you a basically 3.75% APY if you set up direct deposit. So I guess the broader question here, Roy, we'll start with you, is do we think 2026, the big product outside of Cortex is going to be banking?
Roy: 可能不会。那可能仍然是预测市场。银行业务也很庞大。当然,他们持续的国际扩张,不仅是交易套件,还可能包括预测市场,这将是意义重大的。而且以 Robin Hood 的作风,可能还有一些现在甚至不存在的东西也会变得非常庞大。这真是一家了不起的公司。所以,嗯,但我会把预测市场排在第一位,至少在他们继续扩张的过程中,这是巨大的增长点。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: Probably not. Um, that's still probably going to be predictions market. Banking is massive, too. Um, of course, their continued international roll out of not just uh their trading suite, but also predictions market potentially, that's going to be significant. And knowing Robin Hood, there's probably stuff that doesn't even exist yet that's going to be massive, too. It's just a ridiculous company. So, um, but you know, I I would rank probably predictions market as a number one there um for continued growth at least into as they continue to expand. That's massive.
Tanner: 是的,它将改变游戏规则。我只是认为,大量的新产品、直接存款和交叉销售,以及我们从 SoFi 看到的所有神奇的好处,都可能在 Robinhood 复制。此外,他们还可以将此业务国际化,并与当地银行合作托管存款。我只是认为银行业务是一件大事。你知道,有什么比……嗯,实际上这不是一个很好的比较,但有很多非常大的银行业务,而不是经纪业务。将两者合二为一是一个非常好的组合。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: Yes, it's going to be a game changer. Um, I I just think the amount of new products and direct deposit and cross-ell and all the like the magical benefits that we saw from SoFi could be replicated at Robin Hood. And then on top of that, I mean, they could go international with this and partner with those local banks there to custody the the deposits. I just think banking is is a big deal. you know what what's a bigger well actually that's not a great comparison but there is a lot of very big banking businesses versus brokerage businesses having both in one is a very good you know combination
Roy: 你认为明年它在创收方面会比预测市场更重要吗?还是你只是说从长远来看,这是一笔重要的交易?
View/Hide Original English
Roy: do you think it's a bigger deal uh next year as far as uh being accreative to revenue um than predictions market or are you just saying long-term like it's a significant deal
Tanner: 哦,对不起,也许我没听清。是的,不,预测市场明年可能会胜出,因为它已经有巨大的需求,而且将会爆发。但是随着时间的推移,我认为也很难看到银行业务的质量,比如银行业务意味着什么,因为我不认为这仅仅是收入。我认为是……
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: oh sorry maybe I didn't hear the yeah no prediction markets might take it next year just because it already has significant demand and it's going to blow up. But uh over time, I think it'll also be hard to see the the quality like what banking means because I don't think it's just the revenue. I think it's
Roy: 比如一个每天回来查看产品的用户的粘性意味着什么?他们会多投资多少?他们会多用多少信用卡?如果他们在那家银行开户并每天查看他们的应用程序,他们会多用多少其他一切?所以,很难确定银行业务对业务的贡献有多大,但我认为它非常重要。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: like what does the stickiness of a user that's coming back to check their product every day? Like how much more do they invest? How much more do they use their credit card? How much more do they use everything else if they bank there and check their app every day? like so it'll be hard to determine how much banking is putting on the business but I think it's very important.
预测市场的崛起:新一代信息与博彩平台
Roy: 是的,我同意。好的,关于 Robinhood 的最后一个话题是预测市场(Prediction markets: 一种基于市场的投机工具,参与者对未来事件的结果进行交易,其市场价格可以被解释为对事件发生概率的集体预测)。你是否觉得鉴于 NBA 的丑闻和博彩争议,预测市场存在任何问题?你知道 ESPN 正在与 FanDuel 合作做广告,但他们又不得不谈论整个赌博争议。你认为这对预测市场的整体健康有任何影响吗?还是说,Kalshi 以50亿美元融资,Poly Market 以120亿美元融资,没人在乎,每个人都准备好继续我们所处的这个博彩未来?
View/Hide Original English
Roy: Yeah, I agree. Um, okay, last topic on Robin Hood is uh prediction markets. Do you feel any issue with prediction markets given the NBA scandal and the betting controversy and you know ESPN is advertising with FanDuel but then they're having to talk about this whole gambling controversy. Do you think it's any issue for the broader health of prediction markets or cost is raising at five billion polyark raising at 12 billion no one cares everyone's just ready to continue this betting future that we're in.
Roy: 是的,我认为需要一些监管机构的澄清。好在特朗普政府的大部分方面,我不知道这个,我记不清他们用于博彩方面的四字母缩写词是什么,但他们实际上做得不错,尤其是在加密货币方面。这与加密货币有关,他们不是强制执行和对每个人处以罚款,而是说,好吧,这些是法规和指导方针,当然还邀请了很多市场领导者参与。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: Yeah, I I think that there's um some regulatory uh regulator uh clarification that's needed. The nice thing is uh most aspects of the Trump administration, I don't know about this, I can't remember the um four-letter acronym that that um they have for um for the betting uh side of things, but uh they actually instead of uh enforcing and just slapping everybody with fines, they're actually doing a decent job, especially with crypto. And this is related to crypto of saying okay these are the regulations and guidelines and of course bringing a lot of market leaders to the table.
Roy: Kalshi 与 Robin Hood 的合作非常明智。当然,事后看来,他们也许应该收购它。鉴于 Kalshi 董事会与特朗普政府的联系,以及在一些州级诉讼方面的早期成功,我很难看到预测市场表现不佳。事实上,FanDuels 和 Draftkings 现在已经从说“嘿,预测市场是个笑话,我们不会做”转变为“我们快要死了,必须收购一个竞争对手来竞争”。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: Koshi uh was a really smart partnership with Robin Hood uh and of course maybe in hindsight they should have bought him out or whatever but uh given the connection of course to the Trump administration on the board of Kowi uh and some early success as it relates to some of those state uhwide uh specific lawsuits. It's hard for me to see the predictions markets not doing well. Fact, of course, FanDuels and Draftkings have now shifted away from saying, "Hey, predictions markets are a joke to we're not going to do them to uh we're going to die. You have to buy a competitor to compete."
Roy: 是的。所以,我的意思是,对于 Robin Hood 来说,好处在于,我不想再重复关于独立应用程序之类的争论,但钱已经在那儿了,这让一切变得简单得多。当你钱就在那儿,或者有保证金时,摩擦就少了很多。如果你使用保证金,伙计们要小心。但是,你知道,它就在那儿,很容易使用。所以,是的,这个市场已经大规模爆发,而且这还只是在美国。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: Yeah. So, uh I I mean, and Robin Hood, like the nice thing about Robin Hood is uh not going to rehash the argument as far as like separate apps and stuff, but the money is already there and it makes it so much easier. There's so much less friction when you're like money's there or margin. If you're using margin, be careful with margin, guys. But, you know, it's there. It's easy to use. Uh, and um, so yeah, this has blown up massively and it's just here in the United States.
Roy: 每当出现这样的大规模淘金热时,就会有更多的竞争者涌入,但要瓜分市场份额是很难的,特别是如果你的钱还没有在那个平台上。所以,我认为这对 Robin Hood 来说是轻而易举的事。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: There will be more competition anytime that there's a massive gold rush like this. There's a lot more competitors coming in, but it it is hard to carve up market share, especially if your money is not already on the platform. Uh, so it's it's a layup I think for Robin Hood.
Tanner: 你对 DraftKings 不得不承认没有这些预测市场就无法成功有何看法?是的,我认为这将是一个巨大的……我的意思是,股票已经遭受了巨大的打击,但我只是不知道使用他们传统的那种……比如基于赔率的博彩的理由。点差非常奇怪,不透明。你无法在结束前退出,除非有一些奇怪的提示说,“嘿,你想接受这个然后离开吗?”预测市场的运作方式好得多。它便宜得多,实时进行。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: Tanner, any thoughts on DraftKings having to basically acknowledge that they can't succeed without these prediction markets? Yeah, I think it's going to be a massive I mean the stock has already taken a massive blow, but I just don't know the reason for using their traditional like like the uh I I don't know the name of how like the odds based uh betting. The spreads are extremely weird, non-transparent. You can't exit before um they finish without some weird like, you know, prompt to say, "Hey, do you want to take this and go?" I the prediction markets just work so much better. It's way cheaper. It's live in real time.
Amit: 有即时流动性。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: There's instant liquidity.
Tanner: 即时流动性。而且这可以应用在什么上面是零限制的。我认为预测市场将会非常受欢迎。就像人们谈论稳定币一样,“哦,这个市场在未来几年将增长25倍。”我认为预测市场在未来几年也将增长25倍。我认为我们正处于预测市场意义的早期阶段。所以,我很高兴 Robin Hood 很早就进入了这个领域。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: Instant liquidity. And and there's zero limit to what this could be put on. I I I think prediction markets are going to be massively popular. Like I think the way that you know people talk about stable coins like, oh, this market's going to 25x over the next few years. I think prediction markets are going to 25x over the next few years. like I think we're seeing the early early days of what prediction markets mean. So, um I'm happy that that Robin Hood is getting in early.
Roy: 我读了一篇非常有趣的文章。我得把它找出来然后发给你们。但我认为另一个倾向于意味着预测市场将继续存在的方面是,你可以看到它越来越多地被用作事实的来源,而不是民意调查,尤其是在选举方面。我认为,虽然有时会出错,但群众的智慧在这方面已经证明是相当有效的。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: I I read a a a really fascinating article. I I'll have to dig that up and uh send back to you guys, but u one aspect that I also think tends to mean the predictions market's here to stay. Well, I guess two really is you can see that it's being used as the source of truth a lot more so than polls when it relates to elections. And I I think that that is, you know, there will be times when it gets when it things are not correct, but the wisdom of the crowd has proven quite effective in that.
Roy: 另一个是,我们正处于人工智能时代。我读到的那篇文章,我想是 Sean Taylor 写的,不管怎样,他说,在人工智能时代,更难确定什么是真实的,什么是准确的,什么不只是AI垃圾在阅读AI垃圾然后给你不真实的答案。因此,作为一个预测市场,它具有更大的价值。Vlad 早些时候也这么说,因为你可以看到群众的智慧。至少目前还不是AI或算法在这里下注或做很多事情。所以,这对很多人来说是一个有价值的真相来源。如果我想知道某件事可能会如何发展,我经常会看预测市场。所以我实际上很喜欢有这个功能。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: And the other is we're in the age of AI. And this this piece that I'd read, um I I think it was Sean Taylor. Anyway, regardless, he said, you know, in the age of AI, it's harder to determine what's actually real, what's accurate, what's not just AI slop that's reading AI slop and giving you answers that are not true. And so this as a predictions market has even more value. Vlad was saying this earlier by the way just because you can look at the wisdom of the crowd. It's not AIS or algorithms at least yet here betting or doing much of that. And so this is uh a valuable source of truth uh for a lot of people. Um I actually look at that oftentimes if I if I want to know how something might turn out, I'm tending to look at a predictions market an awful lot. So I actually like having that feature right there.
SoFi 财报前瞻:增长引擎全面启动?
Amit: 好的,在我们转到 SoFi 之前,我想向我们的老朋友 Nate 致敬,他是一位 OG hoodie。他今天刚把这个寄给我。这是来自峰会的。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: Okay. Before we move on to SoFi, I do want to give a shout out to our boy Nate, who is an OG hoodie. He just sent me this today. This was from the Summit.
Amit: 这太酷了,兄弟。这是一个生日礼物,也是他送的礼物。我前几天在纽约见到了他,因为他路过。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: It's so awesome, bro. It was It was a It was a birthday gift, but also it's uh it was a present from him. I actually got to meet him in New York the other day because he came through.
Amit: 所以,这超级酷。非常非常酷。感谢 Nate 送来这个。我会在某个时候把它挂在后面。好了。顺便说一下,Nate,这其实是进入 SoFi 话题的一个很好的过渡。我一周前和 Nate 吃了晚饭,他就像是“Hood 永恒”。他非常看好 Hood。所以我说,“那你对 SoFi 怎么看?”
View/Hide Original English
Amit: So, this is super cool. Super super cool. Thank you to Nate for sending this. I will be hanging it up in the back at some point. So, there you go. By the way, Nate, okay, this is actually a good segue going into SoFi. So, I I had dinner with Nate a week ago and uh he's like hood forever. Like, he is bold up hood. So, I said, "Well, what do you think about SoFi?"
Amit: 他就说,“伙计,他们根本不可能做到 Robinhood 那样。”他非常看空 SoFi。我试着跟他讲道理。我说,“但他们在增长。”他说,“但他们在做什么?它是一家银行。他们在干什么?为什么人们……这里发生了什么?”他说他们毫无机会。所以,我认为这是明天 SoFi 财报的一个很好的引子,因为看,我买入了,我对财报很兴奋。我确实认为有机会达到35美元,股票隔夜交易在31美元。我想我们从你开始,Tanner。你为什么认为这家公司明天可能在财报上大有作为?
View/Hide Original English
Amit: He was just like, "Dude, they are not going to even come close to doing what Robin like he is so bearish on." So, and I I tried to reason. I really But they're growing. He's like, "But what are they doing? It's a bank. Like, what are they like why are people like what's going on here?" like they have no shot. So, I think that's a good segue into SoFi tomorrow because look, I bought in. I'm excited for the earnings. I do think there's a shot for 35 stocks at 31 overnight. I think we'll start off with you, Tanner. Why do you think there's a chance this company could really make a move tomorrow on earnings?
Tanner: 我只是认为他们的业务中没有一个部分不准备好表现出色。如果你逐一查看,支票和储蓄、经纪、信用卡、个人贷款、学生贷款、房屋贷款,技术平台刚签了两个大合同。他们业务的哪个部分表现不佳?而且这不仅仅是 SoFi 固有的,而是整个行业都在表现良好。你知道,个人贷款机构、房屋贷款机构、经纪公司、信用卡业务,它们都表现得很好。在每一个领域都是如此。所以我认为他们……
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: I just think that there's not a segment of their business that's not primed to do well. If you go through the list, checking and savings, brokerage, credit cards, uh personal loans, student loans, home loans, the tech platform just signed two huge deals. um what part of their business is not doing well and and it's not just SoFi inherent, it's like the industries are doing well. You know, personal loan lenders, uh home loan lenders, brokerages, credit card businesses, they're all doing well. So in every single one of them, um so I don't think they're I'm not
Amit: 为什么这些都没有被计入价格呢?我想这是更广泛的问题。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: expect Why Why is none of that priced in, I guess, is the broader question.
Tanner: 嗯,我认为只是对 SoFi 有一种固有的恐惧,因为它是一个周期性业务。但如果他们能实现一些华尔街分析师预期的增长,他们将以有史以来最高的利润率实现40%的同比增长率。这太疯狂了。40%的增长并不容易实现,对吧?而且这是在连续多个季度表现出色的基础上,顺便说一句,还是在去年第三季度非常好的比较基数上。去年第三季度非常好,那是我们第一次看到贷款平台业务。所以这是40%的同比增长,在良好比较基数上的最高利润率。而且它正在加速其增长率。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: Well, I think that there's just an inherent um, you know, fear of SoFi because it's a cyclical business. But if they end up putting up the growth that some some Wall Street analysts are expecting, they're going to put up a 40% year-over-year growth rate at the highest margin that they've ever seen. That is crazy. Like 40% is not easy to put up, right? And that's coming off of the back of many quarters that have Oh, and by the way, on a really good comp last Q3 was really good. That was the LA that was the first quarter that we saw the loan platform business. So, it's 40% year-over-year growth, highest margin on a good comp. And um it's accelerating their growth rate
Tanner: 就像 Palantir 一样,虽然程度不同。好吧,这是小巫见大巫。但是如果你开始以越来越快的速度复合增长率,你就会让华尔街和散户投资者的想象力驰骋,想象他们现在有了顺风能做些什么。所以我认为人们对第四季度感到兴奋,因为现在他们实现了更高的下载量,这可能导致第四季度比第三季度更好。所以人们把一些兴奋情绪带到了明年,如果我们继续看到降息。看起来,展望未来,他们将持续过得相当不错。我的意思是,Robin Hood 非常相似,对吧?如果你不期望放缓,你会因为他们持续的执行力而给他们一个溢价。他们从未有过不是三项指标都超预期的情况。这总得值点什么吧。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: like Palunteer, not not not at the same degree. Okay, this is this is baby baby. But if you start compounding growth rates more and more faster and faster, you let um Wall Street and retail investors sort of you let their imaginations run wild about what they can do now that they actually have some tailwinds. So, I think people are getting excited about Q4 because now they're putting up even higher uh downloads that, you know, could lead to potentially even a better quarter than Q3 in Q4. So, people are, you know, pulling a little bit of that excitement into next year if we continue to see rate cuts. It just looks like, you know, going forward that they're going to continuously have quite a good time. I mean, Robin Hood very similar, right? Like, if you're not expecting a slowdown, you're going to give them a premium for just continuous execution. They've never not triple beat that. That's got to be worth something.
Roy: 过去不是,但这次的财报将会很特别。我们知道,最终他们可能不会三项都超预期。但这次不会是那样的财报。我们看看分析师的预期,他们不断提高,但仍然太低。上个季度,就像 Tanner 说的,是基于一个较弱的比较基数。这次不是。我们的收入增长预测在40%左右。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: Hasn't been in the past, but but yeah, it's this earnings is going to be special. Um we know I mean like eventually maybe they won't triple B. This isn't going to be that earnings. Uh we look at analyst expectations, they keep raising them, they're still too low. Last quarter, like Tanner said, it was against a weak comp. This time it's not. and we're right around 40% as far as our predictions uh for revenue growth.
Roy: 市场在上个季度没有忽视它。它上涨了,当然他们在那之后马上进行了稀释,这有点扼杀了势头,但它并没有忽视 SoFi 的财报,这是一个很大的转变。这一次,基本上做到了上个季度所做的,而且是基于一个强劲的比较基数,这是非常有意义的。价格反映了什么?现在降息可能已经被计入价格,或者至少是大部分。银行已经从银行执照被视为业务拖累,或者至少 SoFi 被这样看待,转变为……他们说它因为获得了银行执照而价值降低,这是有史以来最愚蠢的论点,但空头们就是这么说的。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: It's tough for the it's the market didn't ignore it last quarter. It ran up and of course they did that dilution immediately right after which kind of killed the momentum but it was not ignoring SoFi earnings which was a big shift. This one basically doing what they did last quarter again against a strong comp is highly meaningful. What is it pricing? Now rate cuts are probably priced in or at least a good number of them. uh banks have shifted from a banking charter banking license being an actual drag on a business or at least it was perceived that way for SoFi that they were saying is less valuable because they obtained a banking license which was the dumbest argument ever but bears made that
Roy: 我对技术平台比 Tanner 更看空一些,但真正没有被计入价格的是贷款平台业务。我们正在进入一个持续降息的环境。对这些产品的需求非常高,除了 SoFi 甚至不做的一些非常特定类型的贷款外,拖欠率似乎还好。消费者看起来很健康。现在你处在一个连 Mr. Beast 都申请了银行牌照的环境中。你会看到很多曾说永远不想要银行牌照的公司都在申请。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: I'm a little bit more bearish on the tech platform than Tanner uh but uh what's really did not price in I think as a loan platform business. We're entering an environment where there continue to have rate cut after rate cut as well. Um demand is very high for these products and other than with some very uh specific types of lending that SoFi doesn't even do uh delinquencies seem fine. The consumer seems healthy and now you're in an environment where like even Mr. Beast applied for a banking license. like this is you're you're seeing a lot of companies that said that they would never want a banking license apply.
Roy: 所以在监管方面,你已经从视其为负债完全转变为视其为优质资产。降息正在到来,而他们在平台业务中实际上只有个人贷款。在任何时候,我预计他们将来会这样做,他们甚至可能在这个财报季就分拆出额外的产品,因为贷款平台业务有需求。他们可以实现很多增长,而且好处是这种增长没有上限,只要有需求,他们就完全没有资本限制。所以在未来几年里,他们的定位非常好。它处于历史最高点,但一点也不觉得疯狂。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: So you're as far as regulation, you've shifted all all the way from seeing it as a liability to an excellent uh asset. Uh rate cuts are coming in and they only really have the personal loans in the platform business at any point and I expect that they will in the future. They may even this earnings as well spin off additional products as there's demand on the loan platform business. um there is a lot of growth that they can do and that the nice thing is his growth that's it's at a uh that's not capped as long as there's demand there like they're not capital constrained at all. So very well positioned over the next couple of years um it's at an all-time high it doesn't feel crazy at all.
科技巨头财报周:谁将成为最大赢家?
Amit: 好的,给你们一个快速问题。在这五家公司中,微软、Meta、谷歌、亚马逊、苹果,在24小时内,或者说,在收盘后。哦不,我猜它们是收盘后报告。嗯,但是在下一个收盘日,让我们说,在报告后的那一天,这些公司中谁的股票表现会最好?
View/Hide Original English
Amit: Okay, real real quick question for you guys. Out of these five companies, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon, Apple, 24hour or or sorry, the close of the day. Oh, no. I guess they report after close. Um but next close let let's say the the the you know day after who is having the best stock performance of those companies
Roy: 我会说 Meta。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: I'll say Meta
Tanner: Meta 已经盘整了很长一段时间。过去两周我没怎么关注它,所以可能情况有所变化。但是,是的,他们已经建设了很久。他们也处于非常有利的位置,可以从广告业正在发生的变化中受益。他们也开始将 WhatsApp 商业化。如果他们的财报能有一个不错的上涨,我不会感到惊讶。谷歌可能排第二。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: Meta has uh consolidated for a good long while. I've not paid attention to it over the last two weeks, so maybe it's shifted a lot. But yeah, um they've been building a lot. Um they're also positioned very well to benefit from the shifts that's happening in advertising. Um they begin to monetize WhatsApp as well. Um I wouldn't be surprised if they have a nice little pop in earnings. Uh Google probably would be second for me, but
Amit: 我认为是谷歌,但我会选亚马逊,因为他们今年根本没有动静。不过我感到不安,因为如果 AWS 表现不佳,亚马逊肯定会受挫。毫无疑问。那将是逢低买入的机会,但如果 AWS 表现不佳,每个人都必须准备好再次看到200美元以下的股价。所以,我认为是亚马逊或谷歌。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: I think it's Google, but I'm going with Amazon because they've not made a move at all this year. I am feeling uneasy though because if AWS doesn't do well, Amazon's going to get hit. There's just no way. It'll be a buy the dip, but everyone's got to be ready to see low 200s again if AWS doesn't do well. So, I think it's Amazon or Google.
Roy: 也可能是苹果,这很疯狂。但是,那个更新换代……
View/Hide Original English
Roy: Could be Apple, too, which is wild. But, uh, that refreshes.
Tanner: 我本来在考虑苹果。我会说亚马逊,然后我想说苹果,但现在你让我改变主意选 Meta 了。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: I was thinking Apple potentially. Um, I'm going to say Amazon and then I was going to say Apple, but now you've changed my mind to Meta.
Roy: 所以,我会说亚马逊。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: So, I'm going to say Amazon.
Amit: 你在30秒内就改变主意了,兄弟。你对此到底有没有任何信念?
View/Hide Original English
Amit: You change your mind in 30 seconds, bro. Did you have any conviction at all on this or
Tanner: 因为……嗯,不。我坚持我的信念。我的信念是亚马逊。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: because because of the Well, no. I kept my I kept my conviction. My conviction is Amazon.
Amit: 但你说你对 Meta 改变了主意。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: But you said you changed your mind on Meta.
Tanner: 不,不,我把第二名从苹果改成了 Meta。不,我还是选亚马逊,坚持亚马逊。但 Meta 可能会表现不错,因为它没怎么动。我认为有很多……来自广告商的好消息。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: No, no, I changed from second place from Apple to Meta. Um, no, I'm Amazon. I'm still Amazon holding Amazon. But Meta could do well because it hasn't moved much. I think there's a lot of um a lot of good things from advertiser names and
Amit: 但 Meta 今年已经涨了。我的意思是,它涨了25%。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: but Meta has moved this year. I mean it's made a freaking 25% move.
Tanner: 是的。是的。但我指的是季度与季度之间。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But but I mean I mean quarterto quarter here.
Amit: 哦,是的。上次第二季度财报时它在800美元。所以它肯定……
View/Hide Original English
Amit: Oh yeah. That's it. It was at 800 on Q2 last time. So it's definitely
Roy: 对。唯一的问题是,他们也可能是表现最差的一个,因为这只股票非常……
View/Hide Original English
Roy: Right. Right. The only thing is is that they could also be the worst performing one as well because the the the the the stock is very
Tanner: 马克·扎克伯格喜欢花钱,如果他们认为他把钱花在了错误的地方,无论是 Horizon 还是其他什么没有投资回报的东西,他们可能会惩罚这只股票。他们以前被惩罚过。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: Mark Zuckerberg likes to spend money and and if they think that he's spending on the wrong thing, whether that's Horizon or something like this that's not getting a return on invested capital, they could punish the stock. They've been punished before.
Amit: 我希望他们这样做,因为我一直在等着买 Meta 的下跌,我知道690美元是机会,但就是……我不知道,它就是没有那么吸引人。我希望他们惩罚它,我不知道他们是否会把它惩罚到600美元以下。我认为那可能太激进了。但是看,Meta 内部一直有些混乱。我的意思是,他们雇佣的所有这些研究人员,传言花了四五十亿美元,最大的成果就是一个没人用的 Sora 竞品。这真的有效果吗?
View/Hide Original English
Amit: I hope they do because I've been really waiting to buy a meta dip and I know 690 was like the opport but like I don't know it just wasn't the most appeal. I want them to punish punish it and I don't know if they punished it enough to take it into the low 600s. I think that would be too aggressive. But look there's been a bit of internal chaos in Meta. I mean the biggest thing from all these researchers that they've hired which rumors are you know four or five billion dollars they spent is a Sora competitor that no one uses. like really working out at all.
Roy: 对顶尖人才的过度招聘。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: the overhiring of the top names.
Amit: 我认为他们别无选择,因为 Meta 在人工智能领域唯一显示出的相关性是在广告方面。Llama,人们说它不是失败品,但没人用 Llama。然后第二点是,眼镜还没有成为主流。无论什么AI版本可以增强眼镜,他们都有机会展示。我们看了直播,简直糟透了。所以,Meta 的AI护城河从何而来?是广告,这很好。广告是个好生意,但我认为他们在努力弄清楚,我们在这个人工超级智能世界中的角色是什么?我认为他们还没有找到答案。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: I think they have no choice because the only relevance in advertising or in AI that Meta has has has shown as advertising. Llama, people say it's not a failure, but no one uses llama. And then number two is the glasses are just not mainstream. And whatever AI version that can enhance the glasses, they had a chance to show it off. We watched the stream. It was horrendous. So, like where is Meta's AI moat coming from? It's advertising, which is great. Advertising is a great business, but I think they're struggling to figure out like where is our role in this artificial super intelligence world? And I don't think they have it yet.
结语:关键一周决定市场未来走向
Amit: 好的。所以看,大型科技公司的财报本周开始。我们三个人都会在我们的频道和推特上进行报道。所以如果你关注我们,你会得到所有更新。我的意思是,这将是疯狂的一周。周三,我们有 JPAL。然后是大型科技公司。然后周四,我们有亚马逊和苹果。明天我们有 GTC。所以你可能会看到 Nvidia 分享一些新的想法和产品。我的意思是,就像 Tanner 说的,标普500指数的40%本周将公布财报。所以这一周决定了未来两个月会是什么样子,希望我们在未来几天能得到一些好的结果。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: All right. So look, big tech earnings starts this week. All three of us will be covering it um on our on our channels and Twitter. So if you're following us, you'll be updated on everything. I mean, this is going to be a wild week. Wednesday, we got JPAL. Then we have big tech. Then Thursday, we have Amazon and Apple. And uh tomorrow we have GTC. So you got Nvidia potentially sharing some new ideas and products. I mean this is and then as Tanner said, 40% of the S&P 500 reporting this week. So this is the week that determines what the next two months look like and hopefully we get some good results going into the next couple days.
Roy: 我爱财报季。我希望它永远不要变成六个月一次。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: I love earning season. I hope it never goes to six months.
Amit: 是的,伙计。那会很糟糕。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: Yeah, dude. It's going to suck.
Roy: 加拿大现在也在谈论这个。他们真的在推动。说到加拿大……
View/Hide Original English
Roy: Canada's talking about it too now. They're like really pushing that. Speaking of Canada,
Amit: 好的。说得好。谢谢大家来到这里。我们下周一再见。我们有很多财报。我们将看看这些财报会如何发展,希望我们能得到一些好的结果。我们有降息即将到来,是的,我的意思是,看,这是市场一个非常非常重要的时刻,只要我们能得到一些好的结果。我的意思是,标普指数今年余下时间的健康状况基本上取决于周三和周四。我的意思是,其他一切真的不重要。然后几周后你还有 Nvidia,但周三、周四是重要的日子。我们可能会得到一次降息。如果我们能让事情朝着正确的方向发展,那么希望我们能有一个非常有趣的年底。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: Yeah. All right. Good stuff. Thank you everybody for being here. Um, we'll be back next Monday. We got a lot of earnings. We're going to see how these earnings can play out and hopefully we get some good results. We got rate cuts coming up and yeah, I mean, look, this is a very, very important time in the markets as long as we can get some good results. I mean, the the the health of the S&P for the rest of the year basically depends on Wednesday and Thursday. I mean, everything else really doesn't matter. And then you have Nvidia in a couple weeks, but Wednesday, Thursday are big days. We're probably going to get a rate cut. And if we can get that going in the right direction, then hopefully have a really fun end of year.
Tanner: 祝你生日快乐,兄弟。说真的,你对我来说是一个很大的激励。我比你大,所以我可以这么说。我为你感到骄傲。我觉得你所做的一切都很棒,我们这里所有的人都在关注你的旅程,你是开拓者。所以,真的很感谢你所做的一切。
View/Hide Original English
Tanner: But happy birthday, brother. Honestly, um you know, you're a big inspiration to me. I'm older than you, so I'm allowed to say this. I'm proud of you. Um, you know, I I feel like what you've done has been awesome and I all of us here are following your journey and and you know, you're a trailblazer. So, uh just really appreciate what you do and um
Amit: 谢谢你们。这对我意义重大。那是 Roy 的 YouTube 频道。你可以在那里关注他。那是 Tanner 的 YouTube 频道。这些家伙会在7点左右直播。我和 Steve 会在7点半左右直播。所以对于那些想立即获得 SoFi 分析的人,东部时间早上6:55,7点,一定要看看他们的频道。明天是个大日子。SoFi、UNH 和 PayPal。所以我们会继续报道。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: I appreciate you guys. Means a lot. There's Royy's YouTube. You can follow him there for my channel. There's Tanner's YouTube. Uh, these guys will be live at like 7. Me and Steve are going to be live at like 7:30. So, for those that want the SoFi analysis immediately, 6:55, 7 a.m. Eastern, make sure to check out their channels and got a big day tomorrow. SoFi, UNH, and PayPal. So, we'll keep it covering.
Roy: 大日子。
View/Hide Original English
Roy: Big day.
Amit: 好的。谢谢大家。感谢。我们明天 SoFi 财报和开市时再见。大家再见。
View/Hide Original English
Amit: All right. Thank everybody. Appreciate it. We'll see you guys tomorrow for SoFi earnings and the market open. Bye everybody.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Tanner, Jamie Dimon, Mark Zuckerberg, Vlad Tenev, Anthony Noto
公司/组织: Robinhood, SoFi, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Apple, Amazon, S&P 500, Bank of America, Western Alliance, Zions Bancorporation, FanDuel, DraftKings, Poly Market, Citadel, PayPal, Vanguard, Fidelity, Celestica, NBA, ESPN