引言:全球最大降雨模拟器
这是位于日本筑波(Tsukuba: 日本关东地区的一个城市)的全球最大降雨模拟器。
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This is the world's largest rainfall simulator, located in Tsukuba, Japan.
我知道它看起来就像一个装满洒水装置的仓库,但这座建筑却极其重要。
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Now, I know that it just looks like a warehouse with a lot of sprinklers, but this building is incredibly important.
这里进行的科学研究保护着数千万人的安全,而且其重要性正日益凸显。
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The science conducted here keeps tens of millions of people safe, and it's only becoming more and more vital.
我们获得了独家参观该设施的机会,他们甚至让我们亲身体验了站在有史以来最强降雨下的感受。
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We were given exclusive access to tour the facility, and they even let us experience what it's like to stand under the most intense rainfall ever recorded.
Petr: 这太疯狂了。
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This is insane.
Petr: 不行,不行,不行,不行,不行,不行,不行,不行。
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Nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope.
日本的自然灾害挑战
日本是一个自然灾害频发的国家。
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Japan is a land of natural disasters.
大多数人会想到地震、海啸和火山,但日本也经常遭受大规模台风(Typhoons: 太平洋地区的热带气旋,类似于大西洋的飓风)的袭击,这些台风从太平洋吸收能量,给岛屿带来数米深的降雨。
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Most people will think of earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes, but it also experiences massive typhoons, which are like hurricanes that pick up energy from the Pacific Ocean and dump meters of rain on the islands.
日本南部附近的屋久岛(Yakushima Island: 日本九州南部的一个岛屿,以其古老森林和丰富降雨量闻名)是地球上最潮湿的地方之一,每年降雨量高达10米。
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Yakushima Island near the southern part of Japan is one of the wettest places on Earth, receiving up to 10 meters of rain every year.
相比之下,亚马逊雨林每年仅有约3米的降雨量。
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For comparison, the Amazon rainforest gets only about three meters of rain per year.
这比屋久岛的降雨量少了三倍。
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That's three times less than Yakushima Island.
大多数时候,降雨并不是问题。
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Most of the time, rain isn't a problem.
雨水会蒸发或渗入土壤,然后被植物吸收或进入地下含水层系统。
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The water evaporates or seeps into the soil and is then absorbed by plants or enters the underground aquifer systems.
但短时间内过多的降雨,例如台风过后,可能导致严重问题。
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But too much rain in a short period, like after a typhoon can lead to serious problems.
NIED(National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience: 日本国立研究开发法人防灾科学技术研究所)的科学家们正是利用降雨模拟器来研究并希望预防这些问题。
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Problems that scientists working at NIED use the rainfall simulator to study and hopefully prevent.
降雨模拟器的运作与能力
这个巨大的仓库屋顶上安装了550个喷嘴。
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The giant warehouse is equipped with 550 nozzles attached to the roof.
科学家们可以控制降雨强度,从每小时15毫米到每小时300毫米。
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The scientists can control the intensity of the rain from 15 millimeters per hour to 300 millimeters per hour.
有史以来一小时内测得的最大降雨量发生在1947年6月22日,当时美国密苏里州霍尔特镇(Holt, Missouri: 美国密苏里州的一个小镇)降下了305毫米的雨量。
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The most rainfall ever measured in one hour occurred on the 22nd of June, 1947, when 305 millimeters of rain fell on the town of Holt, Missouri.
因此,这个仓库能够模拟人类有史以来经历过的最强降雨。
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So this warehouse can simulate the most intense rainfall anyone has ever experienced.
从某种意义上说,这使其成为了地球上最潮湿的地方。
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In a way that makes it the rainiest place on Earth.
说实话,我正在阳光明媚的澳大利亚享受美好时光。
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And honestly, I'm having a good time here in sunny Australia.
所以我派了Veritasium的制片人Petr代替我前往。
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So I sent Veritasium producer Petr in my stead.
Petr: 他们很快就要打开降雨了。
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They're gonna turn on the rain really soon.
Petr: 所以我跑出去拿我的雨衣,我准备好了。
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So I'm running out to grab my rain jacket, I'm ready.
Petr: 哇,这雨太大了。
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Wow, this is so much rain.
Petr: 我周围每小时正精确地落下300毫米的雨量。
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All around me, there is exactly 300 millimeters of rain falling every hour.
Petr: 我们才打开大约五分钟,雨量就这么大了。
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We've only turned it on about five minutes ago, and there's just so much rain.
Petr: 地上已经有水坑了,这真是太疯狂了。
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There's already puddles, this is genuinely, absolutely wild.
Petr: 我想我以前从未经历过这样的事情。
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I don't think I've ever experienced anything like this before.
模拟器上的喷嘴包含四个不同直径的孔,因此它们可以产生不同大小的雨滴,而雨滴的大小会影响其下落速度。
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The nozzles at the simulator contain four holes of varying diameters, so they can produce raindrops of different sizes, and the size of the raindrop affects how fast it falls.
你可能经历过大雨滴拍打脸庞的雨,或者走过小雨滴像薄雾一样飘浮的毛毛雨。
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You've likely experienced the kind of rain with the big droplets that pelt your face or walked through a drizzle where small drops hover like mist.
因为雨滴越小,下落速度越慢。
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Because the smaller the raindrop, the slower it falls.
作用在雨滴上的力有两种:重力和空气阻力。
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There are two forces that act on a raindrop, gravity and air resistance.
较大的雨滴具有更高的重量与表面积比,因此它们具有更高的终端速度(Terminal Velocity: 物体在流体中下落时,所能达到的最大稳定速度),所以它们会下落得更快。
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And the larger raindrops have a higher weight to surface area ratio, and so they have a higher terminal velocity, so they will be falling faster.
直径为一毫米的雨滴下落速度约为每秒两米,而直径为三毫米的雨滴下落速度则为每秒六米。
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A raindrop that's one millimeter in diameter falls at only about two meters per second, while a three millimeter raindrop falls at six meters per second.
空气阻力也是雨滴不像卡通画中那样呈泪滴状的原因。
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Air resistance is also why raindrops aren't shaped like cartoon raindrops.
它们更接近球形,但在与迎面而来的空气接触的底部会稍微扁平。
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They are closer to spherical, but a bit flatter on the bottom where they encounter oncoming air.
如果雨滴变得太大,它会变扁,中间凹陷,短暂地像一个小降落伞,然后分裂成更小的水滴。
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If a raindrop gets too big, it flattens out, caves in in the middle and briefly resembles a little parachute before it breaks up into smaller droplets.
洪水预防与东京的地下系统
日本非常重视洪水问题,这有充分的理由。
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Flooding is something that Japan takes very seriously and for good reason.
2018年7月,台风“派比安”(Typhoon Prapiroon: 2018年影响日本的台风)带来的降雨导致全国各地发生洪水。
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In July, 2018, there were floods all over the country due to the rainfall from Typhoon Prapiroon.
该国部分地区在短短10天内降雨量接近两米,由此引发的洪水导致超过800万人被迫撤离家园。
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Some regions of the country received nearly two meters of rain in just 10 days, and the resulting floods were enough that more than 8 million people had to be evacuated from their homes.
超过200人丧生,洪水造成的财产损失超过1万亿日元,接近100亿美元。
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Over 200 people died, and the damage to property from the flooding was more than 1 trillion yen, nearly $10 billion.
日本首都东京非常容易遭受洪水侵袭。
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Tokyo, the capital city of Japan, is very vulnerable to flooding.
这座拥有近4000万人口的城市,有超过一百条河流纵横交错。
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There are more than a hundred rivers crisscrossing the city of nearly 40 million people.
为了防止河流泛滥,城市下方建有管道和隧道,通向一个巨大的蓄水池。
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To prevent the rivers from overflowing, there are pipes and tunnels under the city leading to an enormous water storage tank.
2019年10月,台风“海贝思”(Typhoon Hagibis: 2019年重创日本的强台风)在不到48小时内向该市倾泻了超过200毫米的降雨。
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In October, 2019, typhoon Hagibis dumped over 200 millimeters of rain onto the city in under 48 hours.
地下系统分流了1200万立方米的水,估计避免了17亿美元的损失。
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The underground system diverted 12 million cubic meters of water and prevented an estimated $1.7 billion in damage.
山体滑坡的复杂性与预防
但洪水并非唯一的问题。
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But flooding isn't the only problem.
日本是一个多山国家,许多城镇和村庄都坐落在山谷中。
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Japan is a very mountainous country with many towns and villages situated in valleys.
因此,加上强降雨,这为另一种灾害创造了完美的条件。
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So combined with the heavy rainfall, this creates the perfect conditions for another hazard.
(男子尖叫声)
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(man screaming)
NIED的研究人员已经确定了超过70万个山体滑坡对房屋构成严重威胁的地点。
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The researchers at NIED have identified over 700,000 places where landslides are a significant threat to homes.
但山体滑坡非常复杂。
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But landslides are so complicated.
影响山体滑坡是否发生、规模大小、移动速度以及造成的损害程度的因素非常多。
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There are so many factors that affect if a landslide will occur, how large it could be, how fast it will move, and how much damage it will do.
这不仅包括坡度或新降雨量,还包括土壤类型、存在的矿物质以及坡顶生长的植被。
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Not just the slope angle or the amount of new rain, but the type of soil, the minerals present, and the vegetation growing on top of the slope.
这是2020年6月在挪威发生的一场山体滑坡的录像。
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This is footage from a landslide that occurred in Norway in June of 2020.
这里几乎没有坡度,但整个区域都位于一层速黏土(Quick Clay: 一种在受到扰动或强降雨时会迅速液化的不稳定黏土层)上,这种极不稳定的黏土层在暴露于强降雨时会失去结构完整性,变成液体。
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There's barely any slope angle here, but the whole area sits on a layer of quick clay, an incredibly unstable clay layer, which when exposed to intense rainfall loses its structural integrity, becoming a liquid.
在这起山体滑坡事件中,虽然有几栋房屋被冲入海中,但没有人员伤亡。
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In the case of this landslide, there were no casualties, though several homes were swept out to sea.
山体滑坡物理学的复杂性正是大型降雨模拟器所做工作如此重要的原因。
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The complexity of the physics of landslides is why the work done at the large scale rainfall simulator is so important.
Derek: 为了研究山体滑坡,整个仓库有一个秘密:它会移动。
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To study landslides, the whole warehouse has a secret, it moves.
Petr: 这个降雨模拟器可以有五个位置。
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The rainfall simulator can be in one of five positions.
Dr. Sakai: 速度大约是一分钟一米。
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Velocity is about one meter per one minute.
Petr: 一分钟一米。
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One meter per minute.
Petr: 哇,它在这些铁轨上移动。
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Wow, it moves on these railway tracks.
Petr: 每次移动它,你都需要拿起这个巨大的扳手拧开这些螺栓。
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Every time you move it, you need to grab this gigantic wrench and undo these bolts.
Petr: 这是连接所有水到洒水装置的管道。
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This is the pipe that connects all the water up to the sprinklers.
Petr: 沿着管道有很多这样的开口。
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There's a number of these kind of openings in the pipe along the line.
Petr: 所以当你移动它时,你只需将它连接到不同的部分。
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So when you move it, you just connect it to a different part.
Petr: 所以这是山体滑坡测试设施吗?
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So this is the landslide testing facility?
Dr. Sakai: 是的,这是一个30度的斜坡,你可以看到。
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Yes, this is a 30 degree slope, you can see this.
Dr. Sakai: 这是一个浅层山体滑坡。
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This is a shallow landslide.
Dr. Sakai: 现在你可以在这里放置大约一米的土壤。
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Now you can put the soil here, about one meter.
Petr: 你们会把所有的沙子和土壤放好,然后把建筑物移过来。
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You would put all the sand and all the soil, and then you'd bring the building over.
Petr: 把它移到这里。
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You'd move it over here.
Petr: 然后开始对它进行降雨模拟。
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And then you'd start raining on it.
Dr. Sakai: 是的。
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Yes.
Dr. Sakai: 这个坡度是20度。
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20 degrees this slope, is 20 degrees.
Petr: 好的,所以你们有30度、40度和20度,20、30、40。
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Right, so you have a 30, a 40, and a 20, 20, 30, 40.
Dr. Sakai: 是的。
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Yes.
Derek: 那么,是什么导致了山体滑坡呢?
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So what causes landslides?
当重力将其向下拉的力大于摩擦力将其向上 удержи的力时,斜坡就会滑动。
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Well, a slope will slide when the force of gravity pulling it down becomes greater than the force of friction holding it up.
有一种常见的误解认为水会使材料变得更滑,所以下雨时水渗入地下会使其更滑。
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There's a misnomer out there that water makes the materials slipperier, so it rains and it soaks into the ground and it makes it slipperier.
这并不正确,水实际上对许多材料来说是一种反润滑剂,包括石英,它是我们土壤和地球上最常见的矿物质。
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That's not true, water's actually an anti lubricant for many materials, including quartz, which is our most common mineral in soils and on earth.
Derek: 所以水并不会让土壤变得更滑,但土壤是多孔的。
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So water doesn't make soil slipperier, but soil is porous.
土壤中有颗粒,颗粒之间有孔隙。
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There are grains and there are pores between those grains.
下雨时,水渗入土壤,孔隙被水填满,随着雨水持续,孔隙中的水压增加,从而降低了颗粒之间的摩擦力。
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And as it rains, the water seeps into the soil, the pores become filled with water, and as it keeps raining, the water pressure in the pores increases, which decreases the friction between the grains.
对于已经有滑动风险的斜坡来说,摩擦力的这种降低最终导致斜坡崩裂并向下坡滑动。
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For a slope that was already at risk of sliding, this decrease in friction is what ultimately leads to the slope breaking apart and sliding downhill.
我们的数学模型尚未很好地发展的一个方面是确定山体是会缓慢滑动,还是会快速滑动甚至流动?
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One thing that our mathematical models are not very well developed at yet is determining is it going to slide slowly or is it going to slide or maybe flow rapidly?
这是一个难题,所以实验是解决这个问题的绝佳方法。
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That's a tough one, that's, so experimentation's a great way of getting at that.
而且,你知道,尺度效应是巨大的。
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And you know, the scaler effects are huge.
很多人在他们的实验室里有一个小型模型,你知道,一个小型水槽,但现在你处理的是材料,你知道,你开始脱离比例了。
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So many people have a little model in their lab, you know, a small scale flume, but now you're dealing with materials, you know, you're starting to get off scale.
像日本这样的大型模拟装置非常重要。
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A large scale stimulation device like they have in Japan is really important.
Derek: 那么,如何预防山体滑坡呢?
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So how can you prevent landslides?
有几种方法可以做到,例如使用钢梁和网格来固定斜坡。
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Well, there are a few things you can do, like using steel beams and mesh to anchor the slope.
或者你可以挖掉表层土壤以减小坡度。
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Or you can dig up the top layer of the soil to decrease the slope angle.
当预计斜坡在雨水过多后会滑动时,工程师会在斜坡上钻孔并放置管道以排出水。
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And when it's expected that a slope will slide after too much rain, engineers drill holes into the slope and place pipes to drain the water out.
另一种解决方案是创建集水区和分流渠,即地面上的大坑,它们会在山体滑坡到达居民区之前将其捕获或分流。
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Another solution is to create catchment zones and diversion channels, big holes in the ground that will catch or divert the landslide before it hits a residential area.
树木在预防山体滑坡方面非常有效。
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Trees are incredibly effective at preventing landslides.
它们的根系不仅能提供良好的固定作用,还能将土壤中的水分吸收到蒸发掉,从而有效地排出土壤水分并降低水位。
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Not only do their roots provide great anchors, they draw the water up from the soil to be evaporated away, which effectively drains the soil and decreases the water level.
(电锯声)
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(chainsaw operating)
在那些为了木材工业而被砍伐的陡峭山坡上,山体滑坡变得更加常见。
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Where steep slopes have been deforested for the timber industry, landslides have become more common.
在过去的几十年里,不列颠哥伦比亚省(British Columbia: 加拿大西部的一个省份)的森林中,山体滑坡的数量增加了十倍。
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Over the last few decades, there has been a tenfold increase in landslides in the forests of British Columbia.
人类非常擅长引发山体滑坡,我们改变地貌的速度比地质过程快得多。
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Humans are really good at causing landslides and we're shaping the land a heck of a lot more quickly than geologic processes do.
所以当我们在这里挖掘,或者在这里增加更多的重量或更多的滑坡物质,这会非常频繁地引发山体滑坡。
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So when we excavate over here or add more weight or more landslide or more material over here, and that triggers landslides very, very regularly.
几十年前在华盛顿州西雅图进行的一项研究表明,我认为超过85%的山体滑坡至少有部分是人为因素引发的。
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Study in Seattle from Seattle, Washington a few decades ago, showed that I think more than 85% had at least partial human trigger, if you will.
模拟器的其他应用:无人机与自动驾驶
Derek: 虽然这项工作的重点主要是山体滑坡的研究和预防,但模拟器也用于测试无人机在雨天和有风条件下的飞行情况。
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While the focus of the work is primarily on landslide study and prevention, the simulator is also used to test how drones fly in rainy and windy conditions.
它还用于测试自动驾驶汽车。
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It's also used to test self-driving cars.
这些数据用于改进汽车检测各种物体的硬件和软件。
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The data is used to improve the hardware and software of how the cars detect various objects.
自动驾驶汽车检测其他车辆、交通信号灯和行人的两种主要方式是使用摄像头或激光雷达传感器(LIDAR Sensors: 利用激光束测量距离和绘制环境地图的传感器)。
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The two main ways that self-driving cars detect other cars, traffic lights and pedestrians is with cameras or LIDAR sensors.
在这两种情况下,雨水都会降低这些传感器的可见性和准确性。
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In both cases, rain can decrease the visibility and accuracy of these sensors.
因此,在完美可重复的环境中测试它们有助于工程师开发应对这些天气挑战的解决方案。
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So testing them in a perfectly repeatable environment helps engineers develop solutions to these weather challenges.
气候变化与模拟器的未来重要性
Dr. Sakai: 在日本,降雨状况正在发生变化。
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In Japan, the rainfall condition is changing.
Dr. Sakai: 而现在这个世纪,降雨状况是短时间内有如此多的强降雨。
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And now in this century, the rainfall condition is so many heavy rainfall in so much short time.
Derek: 随着人类对化石燃料(Fossil Fuels: 煤、石油、天然气等,由古代生物遗骸形成,燃烧会释放温室气体)的依赖导致全球变暖,极端天气事件正变得越来越普遍。
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As the world heats up due to humanity's addiction to fossil fuels, extreme weather events are becoming more common.
与30年前相比,日本每小时降雨强度达到50毫米的降雨事件增加了40%。
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Compared to 30 years ago, the number of rain events in Japan with an intensity of 50 millimeters per hour have become 40% more common.
降雨强度达到两倍的事件则增加了70%。
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Rainfall at double that intensity has become 70% more common.
气候变化将在未来增加洪水和山体滑坡的发生率,这也是全球最大降雨模拟器所做的工作变得越来越重要的原因。
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Climate change will increase the rate of flooding and the occurrence of landslides in the future, which is why the work done at the world's largest rainfall simulator is becoming more and more important.
但我希望人类能将精力集中在解决气候变化的根本原因上,而不仅仅是减轻其负面影响。
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But I hope that humanity focuses its efforts on addressing the root causes of climate change and not just on the mitigation of its negative impacts.
赞助商信息:NordVPN
将山体滑坡损害降至最低的最佳方法是预防,这与网络安全的情况相同。
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The best way to minimize landslide damage is prevention, and it's the same for cybersecurity.
例如创建强密码、使用反恶意软件保护、备份数据以及定期更新操作系统和软件。
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Creating strong passwords, using anti-malware protection, backing up your data and updating your operating system and software regularly.
特别有用的是像今天赞助商NordVPN(Virtual Private Network: 一种加密网络连接以保护在线隐私和安全的工具)这样的虚拟私人网络。
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Something that's particularly useful is a virtual private network like today's sponsor, NordVPN.
NordVPN可以隐藏你的IP地址,并帮助保护你的在线身份。
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NordVPN hides your IP address and helps protect your online identity.
Petr在日本实地拍摄时,使用NordVPN安全地访问了公共Wi-Fi热点。
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Petr filmed on location in Japan and he used NordVPN to safely access public wifi hotspots.
我目前在澳大利亚,我一直在使用NordVPN观看NHL(National Hockey League: 北美职业冰球联赛)比赛,因为我觉得加人队(Canucks: 温哥华加人队,NHL球队)今年很有机会夺冠。
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And I am currently in Australia, and I've been using NordVPN to watch NHL games 'cause I think the Canucks have a real shot at the cup this year.
我特别喜欢NordVPN的一点是它的速度极快。
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Something I especially like about NordVPN is that their speeds are blisteringly fast.
所以一直开着它也毫不费力。
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So it's effortless to just keep it turned on all the time.
当你连接流媒体服务并在遥远地区服务器上观看仅在该地区可用的内容时,高速连接尤其有用。
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High speeds are particularly useful when you're connecting to streaming services and hopping on servers in distant locations to watch content that's only available in those regions.
本频道的观众可以使用链接nordvpn.com/veritasium,获得两年套餐的巨大折扣,外加免费的四个月。
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For viewers of this channel, use the link nordvpn.com/veritasium for a huge discount on a two year plan, plus an extra four months for free.
我会在描述中附上该链接。
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So I'll put that link down in the description.
它提供30天退款保证,所以完全没有风险。
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There's a 30 day money back guarantee, so it's entirely risk free.
只需访问nordvpn.com/veritasium。
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Just go to nordvpn.com/veritasium.
我要感谢NordVPN赞助视频的这一部分,现在我们回到全球最大的降雨模拟器。
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So I wanna thank NordVPN for sponsoring this part of the video, and now back to the world's largest rainfall simulator.
Petr: 好的,我打算不打伞试试。
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All right, I'm gonna try it without an umbrella.
Petr: 我有一件非常好的夹克。
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I have a very nice, very nice jacket.
Petr: 我不确定它能撑多久,但我们要试试。
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I'm not sure how it's gonna hold up, but we're gonna try.
(Petr尖叫)
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(Petr screaming)
Petr: 哦天哪,这太疯狂了。
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Oh my God, this is insane.
Petr: 不行,不行,不行,不行,不行,不行,不行,不行。
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Nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope.
Petr: 我的夹克是防水的,所以我没事。
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My jacket is waterproof, so I was fine.
Petr: 但我的牛仔裤完全湿透了。
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But my jeans are absolutely soaked through.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Derek Muller
公司/组织: NordVPN