Anthropic 冲击软件股
Jason: 欢迎回到大家最喜欢的播客——All-In Podcast。今天我们准备了一个“阴谋论角落”环节,打算聊聊 9/11、平地论和肯尼迪遇刺案。在经历了滑雪周那期精彩节目后,我们要全方位进入阴谋论模式。今天的嘉宾是 Alex Jones。
Original English
Jason: All right, everybody. Welcome back to your favorite podcast, the AllIn podcast. Today we have a conspiracy corner episode for you. We're going over the 9/11 inside job. We're going over flat earth, JFK assassination. It's going to be all conspiracy all the time after our amazing blockbuster episode during Ski Week. We're going all conspiracy here. Our guest today, Alex Jones.
Chamath: 那期节目有多少播放量?才 9 次?当四个好兄弟里缺了一个时,确实很难办。Michael Tracy 已经在待命了。
Original English
Chamath: How many views did it get? Nine views. I mean, it's tough when you have one out of four besties. It doesn't Michael Tracy is on standby.
Jason: 别瞎说,我一个人撑起一集至少能有 40 万播放量。不过说真的,对于那些还不知道的人,Chamath 有了自己的 YouTube 频道。他这是在给自己留退路,万一这辆“失控列车”烧成灰烬,他已经找好了逃生舱。Friedberg 也在搞个人项目,大家都在搞个人项目,这支乐队现在有很多单飞计划。
Original English
Jason: Not true. I can carry an episode for at least 400,000 views. I mean, you might. You might. I like your Hey, for people who don't know, Jimoth has his own YouTube channel. He's got his escape hatch for when this train wreck burns to the ground. He started his own YouTube channel. He's hedging his bets. Freyberg's working on his solo project. Everybody's doing solo project. The band's got a lot of solo projects.
Sacks: 就像披头士乐队在搞实验。
Original English
Sacks: The Beatles are experimenting. The Beatles.
Jason: 没错,我们这儿有点“小野洋子”的情况。你们知道 All-In AI 机器人 选出的本周头号话题是什么吗?是 Dario 对阵 Heggs,也就是战争部对阵 Anthropic。这个决策将在周五晚些时候公布,所以我们下周再聊。但现在让我们进入正题,任务很重。Claude 的“必杀名单”扩大了,一篇 AI 幻想文在周一重创了大家的 401k。Anthropic 的代际优势仍在延续,他们在二月份已经连续三次重创不同的市场板块。恭喜他们,他们从 Brad Gerstner 手中接过了“重创市场”的接力棒。
Original English
Jason: They're experimenting. We had a little Yokoono situation going on here. You know what the number one topic for this show was by the all-in AI bot sacks. What's up? The number one was Daario versus Hegs, the uh Department of War versus anthropic was the number one topic selected by our AI bot as a programming note for folks. That decision will be made end of the day Friday when this podcast comes out. So, we will talk about it next week. But, let's get to work. We've got a full docket. The clawed kill list has expanded and an AI fanfiction substack tanked your 401k on Monday. Let's get into it. Anthropics generational run continues. They're now three for three in tanking different market sectors in February. Congratulations. This is like they they took the the mantle from Brad Gersonner uh tanking the market.
Sacks: 这就是“Anthropic 名单”。
Original English
Sacks: The Enthropic list.
Jason: 2 月 3 日,Anthropic 宣布为 Claude 推出法律插件。随后 Thomson Reuters、Lexus Nexus、LegalZoom 的股价自那天起至少下跌了 10%。接着在 2 月 20 日,Claude Code 安全功能开启限量研究预览,相关股票再次暴跌,CrowdStrike、Cloudflare、Okta 全部走低。到了 2 月 23 日,Anthropic 宣布 Claude 可以现代化 COBOL 数据库。如果你不了解 COBOL,那是世界上最古老的编程语言之一,Sacks 70 年代上大学时学的就是这个。它被广泛用于银行、薪资、政府和医疗系统。
Original English
Jason: It is February 3rd. Anthropic announces, hey, we got a legal plugin for Claude Co-work, Thompson Reuters, Lexus, Nexus, Legal Zoom, all down at least 10% since February 3rd. Then on February 20th, Claude Code Security is announced in a limited research preview. Stocks tank again. Crowd Strike, Cloud for Octa, all down. Then February 23rd, Anthropic announces Claude can modernize Cobalt databases. If you don't know Cobalt, that's the like oldest coding language in the world. That's where Sachs learned code when he was in college in the 70s. It's used for banking, payroll, government, healthcare.
Friedberg: 医疗系统。它驱动着美国 95% 的 ATM 机,还负责社会保障金的支付。85% 的 COBOL 代码运行在 IBM 的机器上。因此,IBM 周一暴跌 13%,创下 2000 年以来表现最差的一天,市值蒸发了 310 亿美元。
Original English
Friedberg: Healthcare runs 95% of ATMs in the US and it powers social security payments. 85% of all coal code runs on IBM machines. So IBM decided they would tank 13% on Monday, their worst day since 2000. 31 billion in market cap losses.
市场从“何时”转向“是否”
Jason: 在聊那篇幻想文之前,先停一下。Chamath,你对市场正在发生的事情有什么看法?这仅仅是人们在寻找减仓的借口,因为股市一直处于历史高点?还是说这就是未来的现实——AI 将压缩这些公司的股票,因为它解决了很多问题?
Original English
Jason: So let's stop here before I get into the fanfiction piece. What's your take here of what's happening in the market, Shmath? Is this simply people are looking for an excuse to trim their positions because things have been top ticking all-time highs and people are just looking for an excuse or is this reality? Is this the go forward reality that AI is going to compress these kind of stocks because it solves a lot of problems?
Chamath: 我给你两种解释。我不确定权重如何分配,但我认为一种是战术性的,另一种更具战略性,且两者都在发生。战术上,现在很多聪明的对冲基金开始大规模去杠杆(degrossing)。这意味着他们在削减头寸,降低风险。原因我不完全确定,可能受我接下来要说的第二点启发。但在去风险的过程中,你会缩小头寸规模:多头不再那么激进,空头也不再那么激进,整体规模在萎缩。这产生了一种普遍的下行压力。
Original English
Chamath: I'm going to give you two explanations. I don't know what percentage I would allocate across the two, but I think one is tactical and one is much more strategic, but I think both are happening. The tactical one is that we are at a moment in time where a lot of the smart money hedge funds are starting to massively degross. And what that means is they're trimming a lot of positions and they're just taking on a lot less risk. Why? I don't exactly know. It could be motivated by the second thing that I'm going to talk about. But the point is in a deg risk and making your position sizes much smaller. So the longs become less long, the shorts become less short and you just shrink. And so there's just general downward pressure. That is a clear behavior right now.
Chamath: 但我认为结构性的变化更重要。在正常运作的市场中,我们总是在争论:一组现金流何时会从“高度确定”变为“不那么确定”。这是一个关于“何时(When)”的对话。比如,可口可乐的现金流何时会受影响?礼来公司何时受影响?Meta 何时受影响?这个“何时”会被公开市场转化为三件事:市盈率(P/E)倍数、营收倍数,以及加权平均资本成本(WACC)。
Original English
Chamath: But I think the structural change is the more important one. And this is sort of what I talked about this morning. In a normal functioning market, what we are always debating is when a set of cash flows go from becoming highly confident to less highly confident. It's a when conversation. So when will Coca-Cola's cash flows be impacted? When will Eli Lily's cash flows be impacted? When will Meta's cash flows be impacted? And the answer to the when gets translated by the public markets into three things. Your price to earnings multiple where if you invert that number what that is equivalent to is the yield on the money that you get. Okay. So if you you know 20 times PE that's a 5% yield. The second is a revenue multiple. And the third is what's called your weighted average cost of capital.
Chamath: 简单来说,如果你看未来 20 到 30 年的收益,并想算出它今天的价值,你必须进行折现。当你假设这些现金流非常持久时,折现率就很低。但现在发生了什么?我们不再争论“何时”,市场进入了“是否(If)”模式。这些现金流是否还具有持久性?它们会不会在第三年就崩盘?会不会有某个 AI 模型突然出现并彻底摧毁这项业务?
Original English
Chamath: Which is to say, if you look at the next 20 to 30 years of earnings and you want to figure out what that is worth today, you have to discount all of these back and you have to assume a percentage of interest effectively that it takes to get there. And the basic math of this is that when you have a high whack, it's called, you're massively discounting these cash flows. When you have a low whack, you're assuming that these things are very durable. Okay. So, what is happening? We used to debate when this is no longer a when moment. The market is very much in an if mode. Are these cash flows durable at all?
Chamath: 因为进入了这种“是否”的心态,你的风险变得完全不同。你面临着无法定价的事件风险(event risk)。每当市场进入这种模式,投资者就会要求巨大的安全边际。这意味着市盈率倍数必须大幅下降:如果以前是 40 倍,现在应该是 20 倍;如果以前是 20 倍,现在应该是 10 倍。营收倍数也要下调。WACC 则要大幅上调。这是市场在说:“我怀疑这些东西是否还能存在,所以我需要巨大的缓冲才敢持有它们。”
Original English
Chamath: Could they fall off a cliff in year three? Is there some AI model that's going to come around the corner and obliterate this business without me knowing it? And because they've shifted into this if mindset, your risk becomes totally different. You have this event risk that you don't know how to price. And whenever the market shifts into that mode, what you see are that the holders of those equities want a massive margin of safety. What does that mean? They have to take pees way down. If you used to trade at 40, you should trade at 20. If you used to trade at 20, you should trade at 10. They take revenue multiples down. You used to trade at 10 times revenue. Now you're going to trade it three times. You take the whack way up. Used to be a 6% discounted weighted average cost of capital. You know what? I'm taking you to 12 or 13. That's the market's way of saying, I'm now debating if these things will even exist and so I need to give myself a huge buffer to own this stuff.
Chamath: 这就是目前正在发生的事情,它有很多连锁反应。最明显的冲击是科技公司如何招聘和留住人才,因为这直接影响到业务的现金流,而现金流又与**股权激励(stock-based comp)**紧密相连。总之,我们已经从“何时”转向了“是否”,这是一个非常深刻的问题。答案可能是这些公司会生存下来,但我们不知道能坚持多久。在情况明朗之前,你必须给自己留出犯错的空间。
Original English
Chamath: That's what's happening right now. It has a lot of ripple effects that we can talk about. Freeberg and I have talked about this a lot. The most obvious impact is how these tech companies recruit and retain talent because the biggest thing that it starts to eat into are the cash flows of a business which really directly tied to stockbased comp and all this other stuff. But let me just stop there. So we are we have moved away from a when to now an if and I think that that is a very smart question to be asking. The answer may be from any of these companies that they will survive, but we don't know how long. And until that becomes clearer, you have to give yourself room to be wrong.
AI 经济崩溃论的争议
Jason: 故事的第二部分是,一篇关于虚构的“2028 年全球情报危机”的 Substack 幻想文章在 X 上疯传,浏览量达到 2800 万。它在周日晚上发布,直接导致周一市场大跌。作者预言 AI 会引发一种“死亡螺旋”:首先,公司拥抱 AI,一切顺利,裁减员工,利润上升;但因为太成功了,消费者失去了消费能力,导致经济崩溃。
Original English
Jason: Got it. Okay. So the second part of the story Friedberg and Sachs is that a Substack post fanfiction uh taking place in the fictional 2028 uh global intelligence crisis went mega viral. 28 million views on X. It was posted Sunday night. It made the market tank on Monday. In this fictional Substack post, the author said there's going to be essentially a death spiral that happens because of AI. How does that work? Well, first, companies embrace AI. Everything goes right. They're able to cut staff. Their margins go up, similar to how Amazon has, you know, trimmed their white collar staff. Then they're so successful at this that they lose their customer base because consumers don't have discretionary funding to spend. Then it creates a death spiral where the companies keep deploying AI to try to hit the margins, cutting staff, and the entire economy collapses.
Jason: 这种“末日博士”级别的言论预测,AI 代理将消除所有 3% 的刷卡手续费,让所有人转向稳定币结算。周一所有金融股都遭殃了:Amex 下跌 8%,Capital One 下跌 8%,Mastercard 6%,Visa 4%。当然,这篇文章也遭到了很多反驳,比如它说 AI 代理会通过“氛围编程”取代 DoorDash,这在任何运行过网络型业务的人看来都很滑稽。Sacks,你肯定读过这篇文章,或者至少看到了它的后续影响,你怎么看?
Original English
Jason: Dr. Doom level stuff. Unemployment's at 10%, S&P goes down from 38% highs. After this piece came out which speculated that agents would get rid of all the 3% interchange fees and move everybody to settle transactions on stable coins. All the financial stocks got hit on Monday. Amex down 8%, Capital 1 down 8%, Mastercard 6%, Visa 4%, yada yada. Finally, this piece got a lot of push back. There was a silly piece in it or a section in it where they said AI agents would vibe code their way to displacing Door Dash. And uh that's kind of silly if anybody's run a networkbased business knows. Sax, I assume you read this piece or at least saw the fallout from it. What's your take?
Sacks: 没错,我知道这篇文章像感恩至死乐队演唱会上的大麻烟一样被疯传,但我开始怀疑它的“病毒式传播”是否合法。刚出的消息显示,文章的作者署名被修改了,增加了一家正在做空文中提到的公司的对冲基金。据另一篇帖子称,该基金管理着 2.62 亿美元,其合伙人确认了对相关公司的空头头寸。所以,第一点是:这文章是真的火了,还是作者在背后推波助澜?
Original English
Sacks: Yeah. Well, I I know that this uh Catrini article got passed around like a join at a Grateful Dead concert, but I'm starting to question how legitimately viral it really was. There's some information that just came out that the attribution of the article has been amended, meaning the co-authors have been amended to include a short fund that was shorting some of the names mentioned in the article. This is according to another post that just came out. According to this post, the authorship attribution attributed to market moving was changed after publication of the co-author is the managing partner of a $262 million SEC registered hedge fund who confirmed short positions in the companies the report named. So I think that's point number one is I just wonder did this article truly go viral or did the authors do anything to kind of amplify it and we just don't know the answer to that question.
Sacks: 但撇开动机不谈,让我们看看论点本身。Derek Thompson 写了一篇很好的回应,标题叫《没人知道任何事》。他说,没人真的知道 AI 在两年后会怎样,更别说二十年后了。所以人们求助于伪装成分析的科幻小说。关于 AI 的讨论实际上是一个竞争性的“科幻叙事市场”。因为不确定性太高,实时信息太匮乏,很多严肃的 AI 对话与其说是分析,不如说是文学创作。
Original English
Sacks: But regardless of that, let's just take the arguments on their face. I think one of the best responses to it was by another writer named Derek Thompson who wrote a article called Nobody Knows Anything, which I think is a reference to a famous take by legendary Hollywood writer William Goldman. In any event, what the article says is no one really knows what's going to happen with AI in two years, never mind 20 years. And so they resort to science fiction writing masquerading as analysis. And the author here, Derek Thompson, says that the conversation about AI is really just a marketplace of competing science fiction narratives.
Sacks: 确实可能发生那种情况。预测市场上只有约 12% 的人相信那种末日情景。但真相是,没人知道。还有另一种对立的科幻叙事:AI 将创造一个极度丰饶的世界,我们什么都不缺。顺便说一下,Derek Thompson 和 Ezra Klein 都是这种“丰饶派”的代表。
Original English
Sacks: And he says, "That's not to say I think the technology is a parlor trick, but rather that the level of uncertainty is so high and the quality and supply of real world real-time information about AI's macroeconomic effects so poultry that very serious conversations about AI are often more literary than genuinely analytical." So in other words, what he's saying is, look, this guy is writing very compelling science fiction, but there's no real analytics behind it to defend it. And yes, this could happen. Here's a prediction market on whether people believe the Catrini report's going to come true. Something like 12% believe the Catrini scenario is going to happen. But the truth is, no one really knows. I mean, there's other dueling science fiction narratives where AI is going to create such a world of abundance that we're not going to need for anything. And just by the way, Derek Thompson is one of the abundance guys with Ezra Klein.
Jason: 这就是市场受挫的原因。Sacks 你说得对,没人知道。既然持有政府债券能拿 5% 的收益,为什么要冒这种极大的风险呢?
Original English
Jason: This is why the market's getting whacked. I think that you're right, Saxs, nobody knows. So, if you can get 5% for owning government bonds, why are we taking excessive risk here?
AI 代理重塑工作流
Sacks: 让我补充一下关于 SaaS 的观点。之所以对 SaaS 有这么多不确定性,是因为它曾经是一个非常容易建模和预测的类别。作为风投,我们看过无数次这样的故事:初期实验、产品大战,最后市场尘埃落定,出现品类领导者,拥有极其稳定的指标。看 **ARR(年度经常性收入)和净金额留存率(NDR)**就能给一家 SaaS 公司打分。
Original English
Sacks: Yeah. Let me just build on your point about SAS. So the reason why there's so much uncertainty around SAS is that SAS used to be such a easily modeled and predictable category and you know I saw as a VC we saw the same story play out across many many different categories of software. You'd have this initial period where there'd be this experimentation phase you have a bunch of different products that come to market. There'd be a battle and then the market would eventually settle and they'd be a category leader and they would capture most of the market share and the vast majority of the market capitalization and they would have very very predictable metrics. It was very easy to grade a SAS business. You look at ARR, you say annually recurring revenue. You look at the net dollar retention you want to see depending on the phase.
Sacks: 优秀的 NDR 通常在 120% 左右,这意味着老客户不仅续约,还买了更多席位或新功能。人们以 13 倍 ARR 买入时,觉得买的是一份“增长型年金”。现在突然间,你得考虑:万一 AI 颠覆了整个市场呢?我不认为 AI 会消灭 Salesforce,但它可能会侵蚀其增长空间,或者改变定价模式。这产生了一大堆未知数。
Original English
Sacks: And so you know these things began to be seen as like a annuity with growth right because they were rock solid. Yeah. Because a good net dollar retention would be something like 120%. Which means that your sort of cohort of existing customers on balance would all renew the next year and actually they would renew at 120% of the previous year's contract values. And the reason you got that extra 20% is they would buy more seats or there'd be additional products or features they would upsell. It got to be very very predictable. And so when people were buying software companies at I don't know 13 times ARR, they thought they were buying a growth annuity. And now all of a sudden you got to factor into that. Well, wait a second. What if AI disrupts the whole market? What if it doesn't eliminate? I don't think AI is going to get rid of Salesforce, but it could eat into their growth opportunity. We just don't know what if it changes the pricing model. I mean, it just creates a whole lot of unknowns.
Jason: 混乱就是阶梯,Friedberg,这意味着机会。如果 SaaS 面临阻力,那谁是赢家?开源是赢家吗?还是说这一切都是通缩性的,我们赚的钱变少了,公司规模缩水了?
Original English
Jason: Yeah. Well, chaos is a ladder, Freeberg, and this means opportunity. So, if we look at this and SAS has headwinds, then is there a winner? Is open source the winner? Or is this all deflationary in your mind, Freeberg? And we just make less money and the earnings of these companies get compressed, the size of them gets compressed. How do you think about it?
Friedberg: 我认为从根本上说,如果你用 AI 提高生产力,你就是在提高对人类时间和资本的杠杆。问题是你提高的速度有多快。人类有一种每年提高约 10% 生活水平的欲望。如果你的收入增长少于 10%,你可能就不开心。我一直认为这是世界消费能力的下限。
Original English
Friedberg: I think fundamentally if you're driving productivity with AI, you're driving leverage on human time and leverage on capital. The question is how quickly can you drive that up? And that's a function of how much consumption there is, how much capacity there is for consumption. So on the one hand, I'll just speak broadly. I think like humans have this desire to improve their livelihoods by roughly 10% every year. Meaning like your income and your ability to purchase stuff that's new relative to where you were last year has to go up by 10% for you to be happy. If it's less than 10%, you're probably unhappy.
Friedberg: 我们现在面临一个人类历史上从未遇到的问题:消费能力是否存在上限?因为 AI 带来的生产力和杠杆转移如此深刻。通常有了新工具,我们可以用更少的资源做更多的事,大家能以同样的价格获得更多东西。但现在可能出现一种情况:制造东西的能力超过了消费东西的能力。这会导致很多经济、社会模型失效。
Original English
Friedberg: The question that we're now facing which we've never faced in human history before is there a upper limit on consumptive capacity because AI creates such a profound shift in productivity and in leverage that normally you would say hey when we get a new tool or we get new leverage in a system we build a new technology we can make more with less. Therefore, everyone gets access to more things for the same price or the cost of things that they consume come down by a certain price. But there may be a situation now where the ability to make stuff exceeds the capacity to consume stuff. And that is something that I don't think we've faced before. And I think that's sort of where a lot of the models start to break. Just general economic models, just general productivity models, and general social models.
Friedberg: 就像我们讨论过 SaaS 可能只是互联网建立到 AI 时代之间的一个过渡性商业现象,知识工作本身也可能只是计算机普及到通用 AI 出现之间的一个过渡现象。如果这些工作迅速消失,而这些人能被重新分配到更高层次、更具创造性的工作中,他们的生产力会提高 100 倍。但那端真的有足够的消费者来吸收这些生产力吗?
Original English
Friedberg: And this goes to the point about like what is everyone going to do? In the same way that I think we've argued that maybe SAS was a transitory business phenomenon that existed between the foundation of the internet and the era of AI. It may be the case that knowledge work in general is also a transitory phenomenon that only existed between the foundation of the computer or computing tools and the existence of AI generally speaking. And if all of that goes away very quickly and all of those people can be redistributed and recast into doing other higher level, more creative things, their productivity goes up by 100x. Is there really a consumer on the other end of all of that productivity? Is there really enough consumptive capacity? And I think that's the profound question that we all face.
Sacks: 让我用数据反驳一下。我们讨论的是编程助手造成的破坏,这是 AI 的第一个杀手级应用。Anthropic 官网上现在有一个软件工程师的职位,年薪 57 万美元。很多人指出,如果 Anthropic 认为这些工作会被淘汰,为什么还要花这么高的薪水招人?
Original English
Sacks: well Jake I want to hear what you have to say because I know you're experimenting with this but let me just show you a few data points real quick um because I think this is relevant. So we're really talking about the disruption caused by coding assistance, right? This is like the first big killer app of AI. I mean I guess after writing and research for chat bots and we'll have agents later, but really it's all about coding assistance, right? And the ability to more easily create code. That's what's creating the disruption to the SAS category. Well, so let's just focus on the data we see right now around that. And there are a lot of people who are pointing this out that Enthropic right now has a job listing for a software engineer on their website right now for $570,000. And a lot of people are kind of pointing out, okay, so wait, so what Anthropic is saying is they're still trying to hire software engineers at a very high wage, but somehow they think these jobs are going to be eliminated.
Sacks: Citadel Securities 的一份报告反驳了末日论。数据显示,软件工程师的招聘需求正在迅速增长,同比增长约 10%。同时,公司成立的速度也在加快。这回到了吉文斯悖论(Jevons Paradox):当你降低某种此前受供应限制的东西的成本时,对它的需求反而会上升。
Original English
Sacks: Something doesn't quite add up. Citadel Securities did a new report that rebutts that Catrini report and they show a couple of stats here which I think are really interesting. So, job postings for software engineers are rapidly rising. They're showing, I think it was roughly a 10% year-over-year increase in the demand for software engineers. On a related note, they also show that company formation is also rapidly expanding and that may have something to do with AI making it easier to start a business or to get leverage to your point, Freeberg. So look, there's a couple of competing effects going on here. And I think Aaron Levy had a really good explanation of why you might see something very counterintuitive happening. And again, it all goes back to Jeban's paradox. But what Aaron says is that when you lower the cost of something that was previously supply constrained, demand for that thing goes up.
Sacks: 软件工程一直处于长期短缺状态。现在有了 AI,工程师的杠杆更高了,这并不意味着他们会被解雇,而是意味着现在可以有更多“10 倍效能”的工程师分布在整个经济体中。目前财富 500 强公司的 IT 成本约占 5%,也许未来软件应该占到公司成本结构的 50%。马斯克形容公司是半软件半人的控制论有机体(cybernetic organisms)。即使生产力提高 100 倍,需求也能吸收这些供应,从而带来生产力大爆发而不会导致大规模失业。
Original English
Sacks: Software engineering is just one of the easiest examples to contemplate, but there are going to be many other jobs like that. But think about software engineering. Even among startups in Silicon Valley, which I think are probably some of the most attractive places for software engineers to work, there's always been a chronic shortage of them. Then you've got the Fortune 500 companies, non- tech companies, which have always had an even harder time hiring technical talent. So, you have this massive unfilled need for software engineers across the entire economy. Now, you're going to be able to get a lot more leverage out of software engineers. It doesn't mean they're going to get fired. It just means that now maybe you can have a lot more 10x software engineers and they're getting those jobs are now being spread throughout the whole economy. You know, I also think just to put some numbers on this, I think the cost structure of the average Fortune 500 business is something like 5% it includes all of their IT, not just their software. You know, what should it be? What should the percentage of software be in an enterprise cost structure? Elon describes companies as cybernetic organisms that are part software, part human. If you think about the current Fortune 500 company being one or two percent software, maybe they should be 50% software. I think what Aaron is saying here is the market for software and software engineers was so constrained by the lack of availability that even if we 10x or 100x the productivity of software engineers, the demand will be there to absorb this new supply. And so it could lead to this explosion in productivity without the massive job loss.
Jason: 没错。我公司有 20 个人,上周末我让其中 15 个人过来,花了六七个小时训练他们使用自己的 Claude 代理。过去 10 年我们想买或想做的每一件软件,现在我的员工都在用 AI 代理构建。比如,我们训练了一个代理去抓取前 100 名播客的转录文本,找出广告商,在 Pipedrive 中核对联系记录,然后放入销售库。这以前是一个专门的人类职位,现在我们把那个人重新部署到更有价值的工作上了。
Original English
Jason: Basically, everybody's building the great, you know, as we talked about at the all-in summit like some of these companies are trying to build the best pilot in the world or Whimo's trying to build the best driver in the world. People are now trying to build the best SDR in the world, the best salesperson, the best executive coach. And so we have been like obsessed with claude co-work, but mainly OpenClaw. And so what we did was and and I think it's not developers that are going to do all this work, it's knowledge workers. So we had we have 20 people in our firm. We had 15 of them come in this weekend and they all got trained over like six or seven hours had to have their own openclaw agent and we started building it. Every piece of software that we wanted to buy or build over the last 10 years that we never got to my people are building in the last 30 days. As an example, you know, when you're selling ads for a podcast, you want to check all the other podcasts and what advertisers they have. We trained an agent to go take the top 100 podcasts, look through the transcripts, figure out who the advertisers are, check those advertisers in pipe drive, tell us when the last time we contacted them and put it into the sales room. That was an SDR job that we wanted to fill and software we wanted to build.
Jason: 我还给我的代理开了 Gmail、日历、Zoom 和 Slack 的根权限。它现在每周给每个人总结工作:发了什么邮件、开了什么会、联系了谁。我们甚至用它来优化 YouTube 缩略图,它每周会自动学习最先进的点击率技巧并应用。这太令人兴奋了,感觉像回到了互联网刚诞生的时代。
Original English
Jason: The next piece we did was we gave my agent which is like the ultron root access to Gmail, calendar, zoom, notion, slack. And what it's doing is it's giving each person here's what you got done this week with their manager. Here's the emails you sent. Here's the meetings you took. Here's the contacts. here the threads you were involved in and then it's helping manage those people. We did another agent, how do you make better thumbnails? And we said, every Saturday in your skills, so when you build an open claw, it has like a soul file and it has a skills file. In the skills file, we told it sax every week go out and look for people discussing how to make better thumbnails on YouTube, how to make better titles. It found this week, Chimath, somebody at Mr. Beast company talk about how they're using heat maps. It was an article I would have never known. It added it to its skill and now whenever we post a thumbnail, it tell tells us based on its skill that it refineses every week how to make that thumbnail better. And it's starting to make the thumbnails. This is becoming recursive. So you keep the same number of people, but they get 10 or 20% more efficient. I don't know what this means for the larger economy. All I know is it's the most exciting time I've had online since the web came out, since the internet came out. It is so much fun to automate all this stuff.
数据中心建设的阻力
Chamath: 现在的关键是,所有企业都需要“加固舱门”,给自己留出时间来搞清楚这一切。如果你想买时间,你需要大量的现金。而科技公司最烧钱的地方就是薪酬。我认为接下来科技公司必须认真审视股权激励,因为他们几乎烧光了所有自由现金流来对抗股权稀释。如果你想在未来五六年留在赛场上,你必须变得极度保守。
Original English
Chamath: all these businesses are going to need to batten down the hatches and give themselves room to figure this all out right like if you take Sax's point like if you take your point Jal which is the young nimble companies like yours are going to be rapidly experimenting the bigger larger companies are going to slowly onboard themselves to start experimenting All of that means we're going to get much clearer answers to all of this. But what it also means is that you're going to have to have time so that you can figure this all out. And if you want to buy yourself time, you're going to need a ton of cash. And if you're going to think about saving cash, the one place tech companies literally incinerate cash is how they do compensation. And so I kind of think like at some point the next shoe will drop and all of these tech companies have to really look at stockbased comp because they literally incinerate most if not all of their free cash flow fighting the delilution from stockbased compensation. So if you want five or six years to just be in the arena on the field figuring this out, you're going to want to kind of be very cash flow generative and really conservative in how you spend your money.
Sacks: 拥抱 AI 的人会比不拥抱的人价值高出 5 到 10 倍。创业门槛不再是三四百万美元,两三个人加上一堆代理就能开公司。
Original English
Sacks: Yeah, Saxs, the people who embrace this, I think, become five or ten times more valuable than the people who are not. That's where I think the opportunity in the economy is. So, unless you think humanity is going to run out of problems to solve, I think it's going to be boom. It's going to be boom town. And I think people are going to start more companies because the the barrier to start a company is no longer three or four million dollars. You can just have two or three people and you start setting up these agents and man you can make software, you can do sales, you can do PR, everything is getting faster and faster and faster.
Chamath: 但有一个巨大的约束:政治力量正在阻止美国建设数据中心。我查了一下,目前有 100 个数据中心项目面临地方反对。去年我们因为项目取消损失了近 5 吉瓦的容量。对于 OpenAI 来说,每吉瓦意味着约 100 亿美元的收入。这意味着这两年整个行业可能损失了 1300 亿美元的潜在收入。
Original English
Chamath: just to go back to what Jamath was saying there. I mean, you've got political forces that want to stop the construction of all data centers in the United States. So if that gains steam, then that's going to be a huge constraint on any change whatsoever. Can I tee this up for you, Jal? So I I went back this weekend and I looked at the number of data centers that have faced local opposition and whether there were patterns. And I I posted it on X. So Nick, maybe you can put this up, but it was really a a very small behavior which was pushing back on data centers and getting them cancelled. We had about 25 projects total of which 20 were just in Q2 alone. There are 100 data center projects right now that are facing some form of local opposition. If you take that 40% number and you apply this and then you multiply by the number of megawatts that they have announced. Last year we lost almost 5 gawatt in terms of cancel projects. This year coming in 26 we have about seven that could be cancelled if you use this math. If then you flow that through open AI Sarah Frier said this that every gigawatt for her for open AAI is about 10 billion of revenue. So if you if you assume that that's roughly accurate plus or minus a billion here or there. What that means is that 2025 the industry as a whole lost 50 billion of revenue and this year if 7 gawatt gets canceled it's about 70 billion. Now you're talking about 130 billion of lost revenue over these two years that'll go forward in time that we miss out on. I think that that's really bad. We need to figure out a way to nip this in the bud.
Sacks: 这种反对很荒谬。人们担心电价上涨,但特朗普总统提出的“费率支付者保护承诺”要求科技巨头自备电力,甚至可以不联网。这实际上会通过规模效应降低固定成本,从而降低消费者的电价。现在的地方阻力就像是 BANANAS(Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anyone,绝不在任何人附近建任何东西),这是比 NIMBY 更极端的做法。
Original English
Sacks: Well, the president announced in the State of the Union last night that he supports a rateayer protection pledge which requires uh the major tech companies to provide for their own power needs for AI data centers so that residential consumers do not see their rates going up. I think this makes total sense. I think Chamas, to your point, this is the reason behind a lot of the opposition to new data centers is that the local residents fear that their electricity prices are going to go up and that shouldn't be the case. And so the president has said that he's committed to not allowing residential rates to go up as a result of data centers. It's pretty straightforward. You get the big tech companies, the hyperscalers to pay for the increase in the electricity cost or you let them set up their own power behind the meter. I saw a funny post calling it bananas which is build absolutely nothing anywhere near anyone. So this is the bananas is replacing the new nimi. So you just can build absolutely nothing. I think the president's approach finds a very good balance here, which is look, we can have progress. Just don't make residential consumers pay for it. Let the big tech companies pay for it themselves.
Friedberg: 数据中心产生的经济价值巨大,且占地面积极小。如果你把全世界的数据中心放在地图上,它们加起来还不到针尖大。如果我们因为这种短视而放弃数十万个工作岗位和数千亿的价值,那真是太愚蠢了。如果美国不建,沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔会抢着建。
Original English
Friedberg: The data coming in and out of data centers moves at roughly the speed of light. So you could put them anywhere. And I think that our policy makers need to be very cognizant of that fact. theoretically if we don't embrace and allow the economic development of the data center industry and it will fundamentally be an industry because it is almost like the new sort of oil. If we don't put them here, someone else will put them on their shores. Someone else will put them in their country. Someone else will put them in their jurisdiction. And a lot of the economic value that arises from the people that will build those facilities, the energy that will be installed to produce power for those facilities, and then all of the second and third order industries that emerge as a result of those installations, that value will acrue elsewhere. Such a good point. So, yeah, it's not going to like just go away. The the demand is there. The economy is moving forward. AI is moving forward. We live in a world with 196 countries and data centers do not take up a lot of space. They're very small relative to the economic value that they produce. If you zoom out on the map of the world, all the data centers in the world fit under the tip of a pin. And so this is a very small footprint and if we're going to give up hundreds of thousands of jobs and many billions of dollars of economic value creation, we're being pretty silly and pretty obtuse in our view of the world.
国情咨文与政治极化
Jason: 昨晚特朗普发表了 108 分钟的国情咨文,是 60 年来最长的一次。主题是“美国 250 周年:强大、繁荣、受人尊敬”。他列举了通胀下降、就业增长和边境关闭等政绩。但他的支持率波动很大,从最初的 +11.7% 变成了现在的 -14.3%。
Original English
Jason: State of the Union came in at 108 minutes and it's the longest in 60 years. actually the longest since they started tracking this. The theme of President Trump's State of the Union this year, America at 250, strong, prosperous, and respected. Trump took a bunch of victory laps, inflation, jobs, closing the border, all those have gone really well. But this comes to the backdrop of Trump's approval rating being super challenged. He started his first year at plus 11.7%. Now he's negative 14 14.3% 26 point swing.
Sacks: 这次演讲非常有效。CNN 的观众中有三分之二认为它非常成功。特朗普抛出了一个又一个“80/20”议题(即 80% 的人支持,20% 反对),比如保护美国公民优先于非法移民。但民主党人竟然坐在那里无动于衷,拒绝鼓掌。甚至在提到降低处方药价格这种两党共识时,他们也不鼓掌,仅仅因为那是特朗普策划的政策。
Original English
Sacks: And you know, I think the reason why this speech was so effective, and by the way, it's not just me saying it. something like twothirds of the people that CNN pled, so twothirds of CNN watchers said it was highly effective and something like threearters of CBS news viewers said it was highly effective is because the president laid out 8020 issue one after another, right? Or even 9010 issues or 955 issues. I mean, these were all issues where the overwhelming number of Americans, I think, agree with the policy the president laid out. And in every single case, the Democrats supposed to wouldn't even give it applied applause. And that is different than than in the past. And you can say that's because of hyperartisanship and polarization, but it's also because of another thing. It's because the Democrats have become a party of radicalism and extremism.
Jason: 我觉得这是相互的。特朗普也是一个“分裂者”,他总是攻击和嘲讽别人,所以对方也不想配合他。我们现在的政府功能失调,两党应该坐下来像我们在这个播客里一样,虽然争论,但最终寻求解决办法。不过,Elizabeth Warren 确实在特朗普提到禁止议员进行内幕交易时站起来支持了,那是特朗普全晚最精彩的金句。
Original English
Jason: But the truth is Trump is the divider and chief chief. He always is attacking people. He's always mocking people. So, they don't want to play ball with him. So, I do think you can both choice in politics. You got to counter punch. Uh no, I don't think so. That's actually the that's actually the problem with the that philosophy, Trump's philosophy of we have to counter punch, we have to attack, we never have to apologize, we never have to be reasonable. That's part of what's broken down in our politics and these two sides should work together. We should go back to a bipartisan. You did have you did have Elizabeth Warren stand for uh stopping Nancy Pelosi from trading stocks and that gave Trump his best oneliner of the night. That was his best oneliner clearly and they stood for Iran too and stopping Iran from being a nuclear.
科学环节:逆转衰老
Friedberg: 聊聊科学。目前有一个非常重要的时刻:Yamanaka 因子。这是四种蛋白质,研究发现将它们应用于哺乳动物细胞时,可以重置表观遗传钟(epigenetic clock),让细胞回到年轻状态。这项工作曾获得诺贝尔奖。
Original English
Friedberg: Speaking of science, I think that there's a very important moment happening right now. We've talked a number of times on the show about Yamanaka factors. These are these four proteins that were discovered by Shina Yamanaka that we found later that when applied to cells, mamalian cells can actually reverse the age of those cells, reset the epigenetic clock, reset the epiggenome, which is the little markers on top of the DNA that turn genes on and off back to a youthful state. extraordinary groundbreaking work that was done that won the Nobel Prize led to the foundation of several companies.
Friedberg: 哈佛科学家 David Sinclair 联合创办的 Life Biosciences 公司已与 FDA 达成协议,将首次在人类身上测试 Yamanaka 因子。他们首先针对的是因青光眼致盲的患者,通过向眼球注射这些因子来重塑视网膜细胞。最神奇的是,他们设计了一个开关:患者只需服用一种抗生素(强力霉素),就能开启这些因子的产生。如果成功,这将是人类历史上第一次通过重置表观遗传标记来逆转衰老。
Original English
Friedberg: he's a co-founder of a company called Life Biosciences, and they've reached a major agreement with the FDA to be the first company to treat humans with Yamanaka factors. Specifically, what they're doing is they're going to be delivering these Yamanaka factors, these are these proteins that rejuvenate cells and make them youthful again into the eye. And the expectation with this phase one clinical trial is that the delivery of these Yamanaka factors into the eye will rejuvenate the retina, make it youthful again, and restore vision. Amazingly they've created a switch mechanism in it where the protein production the production of these Yamanaka factors can be turned on and off by taking an antibiotic called doxycyc. So the person that gets the delivery of this drug takes the antibiotic turns on the production of these Yamanaka factors and then theoretically their eye cells will deage will get youthful and their vision will be restored.
最高法院与关税裁决
Jason: 最后,最高法院(SCOTUS)以 6 比 3 的投票结果否决了特朗普利用紧急权力征收关税的做法。这是 91 年来对行政政策最大的驳回。特朗普随即援引 1974 年贸易法第 122 条,征收 15% 的临时全球关税。
Original English
Jason: All right, let's talk about our final topic. Scotas struck down Trump's emergency powers tariffs. Last Friday, Scotas voted 63 against President Trump's tariffs. Six judges voted against. three conservatives, Roberts, Barrett, Gorsuch, uh, and three liberals via Bloomberg. This is the biggest rebuke of existing executive policy in 91 years since Scottish struck down FDR's first new deal in 1935. He immediately said he was not deterred and invoked a 15% global tariff across the board via section 122 of the 1974 trade act.
Sacks: 我不认为关税会消失。大法官 Kavanaugh 在 70 页的反对意见中实际上为政府提供了一份路线图,说明如何利用其他法律依据(如第 301 条或第 338 条)来实施关税。而且,为什么要在大国负债累累的时候,把数千亿美元还给那些进口商呢?关税政策在长期来看会是受欢迎的。
Original English
Sacks: First of all, I don't think that the tariffs are going away. What the court basically indicated especially the 70page Kavanaaugh descent is that there's multiple alternative bases in law for the tariffs in existing law. The Kavanaaugh descent actually provided a roadmap for the administration to put in place tariffs using one of these alternate uh bases. So, I think that one way or another, the tariff policies of this administration and the favorable trade deals that they allow us to strike with many nations, they will continue. And I'll just say that the people who originally predicted that somehow these tariffs would be catastrophic for the economy. Those predictions all prove not to be true.
Chamath: 这个实验已经证明是成功的。它揭示了美国与伙伴国家之间存在的结构性贸易失衡。关税最终会为美国工人创造更多平等。现在争论的焦点应该是如何以结构化和永久性的方式实施它们。
Original English
Chamath: I think we've proven the experiment has been successful. We needed to smoke out what the right balance of trade should be between the United States and all of its partner countries. I think that what we uncovered is that for the most part they were structural imbalances that were made not because they made economic sense for America, but it was just part of a hodgepodge of globalist dril that people just bought into. And if you strip all that stuff away, we had a hollowedout manufacturing class and we have a hollowedout middle class and the tariffs will create more equality for the American worker in the end.
Jason: 无论如何,这展示了我们制度的优越性。即使最高法院有很多特朗普任命的法官,他们依然做出了违背他意愿的裁决。这说明司法独立在运作。我们不希望行政分支单方面碾压其他分支。
Original English
Jason: I'll reiterate that this is a great moment, I think, for uh the Supreme Court to make a thoughtful decision. And I think we need to think about executive power a whole bunch. Whether it's Biden with student loans or Trump with tariffs, we have this beautiful system set up by the founding fathers. We don't want an executive branch that can unilaterally just roll over the other branches.
Jason: 好了,这就是本期节目的全部内容。感谢 David Sacks、David Friedberg 和 Chamath Palihapitiya。我是你们的主持人 JCal,下期再见。
Original English
Jason: All right. Listen, this has been another amazing episode of the All-In podcast, your favorite podcast. Uh, like, subscribe, whatever the hell you want to do on your own time for David Sachs, David Freeberg, Chamal Pia. Love you, boys. I am the world's greatest Monterey J. See you next time. Byebye. Byebye.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Donald Trump, David Sinclair, Bill Gurley
公司/组织: Anthropic, OpenAI, IBM, Citadel Securities, Supreme Court of the United States
产品/模型: Claude, Claude Code
媒体/书籍: Running Down a Dream