中东冲突再起与外交风波
在过去的24小时内，伊朗与以色列之间互相发动了空袭。这是自两个月前达成停火协议以来，两国首次爆发直接的武装交锋。冲突始于昨晚，当时伊朗向以色列发射了弹道导弹，导致多个城市拉响了防空警报。数小时后，以色列作出强势回应，声称派出了数十架战斗机打击伊朗的战略目标，其中包括一座大型石化工厂。随后，以色列军队表示检测到更多来自伊朗的后续导弹，但幸运的是，目前尚未有人员伤亡的报告。
关于此次冲突再度爆发的根源，伊朗声称其发动的袭击是对以色列在黎巴嫩持续军事行动的回应。在黎巴嫩，以色列一直与由伊朗支持的民兵组织真主党（Hezbollah）交战。伊朗指责这种行为严重违反了停火协议。伊斯兰革命卫队在一份强硬的声明中表示，其袭击仅仅是一次初步警告，并强调：“如果侵略行为再次发生，我们将作出更广泛的实质性回应。” 此外，美国前总统特朗普在社交媒体上简短表态，呼吁以色列和伊朗应立即停止互相攻击，因为最新的空袭已将该地区重新推向全面战争的悬崖边缘。
在军事冲突的阴影之下，大国间的外交博弈也暗流涌动。据《纽约时报》披露，五角大楼近期的内部情报报告对以色列监控美国核心人员一事发出了明确警告。多年来，美以两国都清楚彼此在互相收集情报，并普遍在暗中对此予以容忍。然而，新报告引发了外界的深度担忧，即以色列的间谍活动正在不断升级甚至越界。一位美国官员甚至用“几近失控”来形容这一局面。例如，有详细报告指出，驻扎在以色列的美国国防人员在他们的手机上发现了旨在窃听其敏感通讯的秘密软件。另一份报告则透露，去年以色列情报人员曾试图在一辆特勤局车辆内隐蔽地安装窃听设备。
这些机密文件还描述了一种核心担忧，即以色列一直试图对致力于与伊朗达成和平协议的美国高级谈判代表进行系统性窃听，其中包括关键人物史蒂夫·威特科夫（Steve Witkoff）。《纽约时报》采访的美国高级官员表示，以色列一直在竭力寻找有关特朗普整体战略及其在复杂谈判中立场转变的深层线索。作为对《纽约时报》提问的官方回应，白宫官员坚决否认了五角大楼的说法，而以色列驻华盛顿大使馆发言人也出面否认以色列曾对任何美国官员或官方实体进行过间谍活动。
Original English Source
Over the last 24 hours, Iran and Israel have been launching air strikes at each other. The first time the two countries have exchanged attacks since a ceasefire paused the fighting 2 months ago. It began late last night when Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel, setting off air raid sirens in multiple cities. Hours later, Israel responded saying it sent dozens of fighter jets to attack Iranian targets, including a huge petrochemical plant.Israeli forces then said they detected more missiles coming from Iran, though so far there have been no reports of casualties. In terms of what kicked things off again, Iran says it attacked because of Israel's ongoing campaign in Lebanon, where Israel's been fighting with the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah. Iran has claimed that violates the ceasefire. And in a statement, the Revolutionary Guards Corps said its attacks were a warning and that, quote, "If aggressions are repeated, the responses will be broader."
In a brief post on social media this morning, President Trump weighed in saying that Israel and Iran should immediately stop attacking each other as the latest strikes have pushed the region back to the brink of full-scale war.
Meanwhile, the Times has learned that recent Pentagon intelligence reports have sounded the alarm about Israel spying on the US. Israel and the US have known for years that they're both gathering intelligence on the other and have generally tolerated that. But the new reports have raised concerns that the Israeli effort has been intensifying with one US official calling it, quote, "unhinged." For example, one report noted that American defense personnel in Israel found secret software on their phones designed to tap their communications. Another report said that last year Israeli intelligence officers were caught trying to plant a listening device inside a Secret Service vehicle.
The documents also described concerns that Israel has been trying to eavesdrop on the top American negotiators who are working to reach a peace deal with Iran, including Steve Witkoff. Senior US officials the Times talked with said Israel has been looking for insights into Trump's strategy and his shifting stances on those negotiations. In response to questions from the Times, a White House official said the Pentagon account was false. And a spokesperson for the Israeli Embassy in Washington denied that Israel had spied on any American officials or entities.
政治与商业的利益交织
在华盛顿特区，一项于周末提起的最新诉讼旨在强力阻止原定于白宫南草坪举行的 UFC（终极格斗冠军赛）比赛。这场备受瞩目的赛事被宣传为庆祝美国建国250周年盛大活动的一部分。然而，该诉讼尖锐地指出，这场看似狂欢的体育盛典实际上是精心设计的，旨在为特朗普及其核心盟友谋取利益。诉讼中详细披露，今年早些时候，尽管总统本人正在大力推广该赛事，但他仍悄然购买了价值高达五万美元的 UFC 母公司股票。此外，诉讼还引用相关报道称，UFC 正在以超过一百万美元的天价销售极致贵宾门票，而且与特朗普关系密切的埃里森家族（Ellisons）所拥有的媒体公司 Paramount Skydance，将通过垄断转播这些比赛来攫取高额费用。
总体而言，该项诉讼严厉声称 UFC 获得了“不受任何限制的特权”，得以肆意进入白宫和林肯纪念堂，仅仅为了举办一场完全属于私人的、纯营利性的商业体育赛事。除了直指财务利益输送的指控，诉讼还深入认为，考虑到这项浩大工程的庞大规模——其甚至包括在白宫神圣的草坪上破土建造一座重达600吨的巨型钢制拱门——该活动在程序上本应获得国会的正式批准。这起颇具象征意义的诉讼由一名基层政治组织者和一名曾在战场摸爬滚打的越战老兵共同提起，两人均对在象征国家尊严的纪念碑外肆意举办这种商业奇观感到被深深冒犯。在一份官方声明中，白宫毫不客气地称这起诉讼是蓄意阻挠，并断言其毫无任何事实根据。
在相关政治动态中，如今甚至有国会中的共和党人也开始对特朗普总统的种种强势做法进行抵制与反击，这种内部反抗情绪是否会持续发酵演变为风暴，仍有待时间观察。
Original English Source
In Washington, a new lawsuit was filed over the weekend that's aimed at stopping the UFC fights scheduled to take place on the South Lawn of the White House. The event is set for Sunday. "America was built on bold ideas." And it's being billed as part of celebrations for the 250th anniversary of America's founding. "This is sports history. A one-of-one event."But the lawsuit argues that the spectacle was designed to benefit Trump and his allies. It notes that earlier this year the president bought as much as $50,000 worth of stock in the parent company of UFC even as he was promoting the event. It also cites reporting that UFC is selling premium tickets for more than a million dollars and that Paramount Skydance, the media company owned by the Ellisons who have close ties to Trump, will collect fees for streaming the fights.
Overall, the suit claims that UFC is getting quote unfettered access to the White House and Lincoln Memorial to stage a private for-profit sports event. Beyond the financial claims, the lawsuit also argues that given the scale of the undertaking, which has included the construction of a 600-ton steel arch on the White House lawn, it should have gotten congressional approval. The suit was filed by a political organizer and by a Vietnam veteran, who both say they're offended by the spectacle being held outside national monuments. In a statement, the White House called the suit obstructionist and said it was without merit.
Those are the headlines. Today on The Daily, a look at the ways Republicans in Congress have started to push back on President Trump and whether or not that will continue. You can listen to that in the New York Times app or wherever you get your podcasts.
农业危机预警与市场冲击
在德克萨斯州，官方正发出最高级别的紧急警告，提醒人们务必防范养牛场可能爆发的危险疫情。这种潜伏的威胁来自新大陆螺旋蝇（New World screwworm），它其实在生物学上并非蠕虫，而是一种极具破坏力的寄生蝇。其幼虫极其残忍地以动物的新鲜活体肉为食，尤其容易寄生在脆弱的牲畜身上。此前，这种可怕的害虫已在墨西哥和中美洲的数万只动物身上被大规模发现，而现在防线已被突破，它已悄然蔓延至美国境内。尽管目前仅有两例被官方确诊的病例，但草木皆兵的牧场主们早已处于极度恐慌与高度戒备状态。
螺旋蝇曾于上世纪60年代在美国通过一场声势浩大的战役被成功根除，当时的顶尖科学家创新性地培育了数以亿计的不育苍蝇，并动用庞大的机队用飞机将它们大面积投放出去，以此成功阻断其自然繁殖链条。然而，如果这种“食肉蝇”如今突破防线再次肆虐，将会给本已在生死边缘苦苦挣扎的美国养牛业带来毁灭性的经济损失。由于近年来持续的广泛干旱等多种恶劣因素叠加，美国目前的牛群总规模已悲惨地降至75年来的历史最低点。系统内任何一丝额外的压力，都可能不可逆地进一步推高普通消费者面临的生活成本。目前的数据显示，一磅碎牛肉的平均市场价格已逼近令人咋舌的7美元，较两年前大幅暴涨了30%。
Original English Source
In Texas, "check your animals daily, treat wounds promptly, and work to reduce fly populations around your operations." State officials are warning about the potential for a dangerous new outbreak on cattle farms. "The New World screwworm is not a worm. It's a parasitic fly whose larva feed on animals, particularly livestock."The pest has been found in tens of thousands of animals in Mexico and Central America, and now it's made it up to the US. There's only been two confirmed cases so far, but ranchers are on high alert. "I was just a teen in the mid-50s when I faced this, and when I heard about it again, the nightmare and the horrors that it brought back was just unbelievable."
Screwworm was eradicated in the US in the 1960s, after scientists bred hundreds of millions of sterile flies and dropped them from airplanes to try and thwart reproduction. Now, if the flesh-eating fly takes hold again, it could lead to huge losses for the US cattle industry, which is already struggling. Ranchers have been dealing with widespread drought, and the size of the US herd is the smallest it's been in 75 years due to a variety of factors. Any additional stress could drive up prices for consumers even more. The average price of a pound of ground beef is almost $7 right now, up 30% from 2 years ago.
科技介入：智能手机时代的生育危机
在宏观的社会人口层面，过去20年里，包括美国在内的世界许多国家都出现了一个令人忧心的趋势：生育率（Fertility Rate）的全面且持续的下降。为了解开这个谜团，研究人员曾广泛探讨过各种可能的解释变量：例如现代避孕措施的极度普及、堕胎医疗途径的便捷化增加，甚至有人认为 MTV 当年爆火的真人秀节目《十六岁怀孕》（16 and Pregnant）可能在潜移默化中起到了非常有效的恐吓与警示作用。然而，如今有两项极具颠覆性的研究提出了一种全新的核心解释——智能手机的全面普及。
其中一项于今日重磅发表在《美国国家经济研究局》（National Bureau of Economic Research）的研究，通过极其巧妙地考察第一代 iPhone 在美国的空间推广情况来严谨验证这一理论。在2007年至2011年的关键窗口期，iPhone 仅在美国的 AT&T 网络上独家发售。因此，该研究精准对比了 AT&T 信号广泛覆盖的县与几乎没有信号覆盖的县之间的生育率演变。他们得出的惊人结论是，在那些被深刻影响的年份里，iPhone 这一单一技术变量的普及，可能是导致生育率下降多达一半的直接原因。数据表明，这种技术冲击在15至24岁的年轻人群体中体现得最为明显与猛烈。一种基于行为心理学的合理解释是，年轻人开始将社交重心从现实世界的面对面互动转移到了虚拟的屏幕上，物理隔离使得他们发生性行为并最终怀孕的可能性断崖式降低。此外，手机无孔不入的特性可能让色情内容变得唾手可得，从而导致大量年轻人转而将其作为生理需求的廉价替代品。同样具有逻辑支撑的是，智能手机极大地抹平了信息鸿沟，使人们能够前所未有地便捷获取有关高效避孕等方面的专业知识。
而另一项依托世界银行庞大数据库的研究，则将分析视野拓展至美国以外的128个主权国家。该宏观研究证实，在智利、土耳其、哥斯达黎加和伊朗等文化背景、政治体制截然不同的国家中，一旦智能手机跨过临界点成为不可或缺的大众现象，青少年生育率的下降曲线就会不约而同地显著加速。不过，一位秉持严谨态度、并未参与这两项研究的外部专家客观提醒道，公众不应将 iPhone 与生育率衰退的联系看得过于机械与单向，不应简单粗暴地认为“这全都是 iPhone 的错”。他高屋建瓴地指出，相反地，智能手机只是催生这种深远变局的众多复杂社会文化影响因素中的一个具象化缩影。
Original English Source
Over the past 20 years in many countries around the world, including the US, there's been a sweeping decline in the fertility rate. Researchers have looked at all kinds of explanations, the rise of contraception use, abortion access, even whether the MTV reality show 16 and Pregnant might have been a very effective cautionary tale. Now, two studies point at a new possible explanation, the smartphone.One of those studies, which was published today in the National Bureau of Economic Research, tested this theory by looking at where the iPhone was first rolled out in the US. From 2007 to 2011, it was only available on the AT&T network. So, the study compared fertility rates in US counties that had widespread AT&T coverage with counties that had little or none. In all, they concluded the iPhone caused as much as half of the fertility decline during those years. The most pronounced effects were among 15-24 year-olds. One explanation may be that young people started to socialize more on their phones than in person, making them less likely to have sex and become pregnant. The phones may also have made pornography more accessible, leading young people to substitute that instead. It's also possible the phones gave people better access to information about contraception, etc.
The other study, using data from the World Bank, looked beyond the US at 128 different countries. It found that in places as varied as Chile, Turkey, Costa Rica, and Iran, teenage fertility declines accelerated once smartphones became a mass phenomenon. Still, one expert not involved in either study cautioned that people shouldn't necessarily take the iPhone link so literally, like, oh, it's the iPhone's fault. Instead, he said, quote, it's an example of the kinds of social influences that have led to the decline in birth rate.
九十六岁演员的不老传说
在文化与精神的殿堂，昨晚的托尼奖（Tony Awards）无疑是整个百老汇年度最璀璨夺目的盛大狂欢。群星云集、被寄予厚望的复排剧《推销员之死》（Death of a Salesman）实至名归地成为了当晚的最大赢家，势如破竹地共捧回六座沉甸甸的奖杯，其中包括极具分量的最佳复排话剧奖。而斩获最佳新音乐剧殊荣的是《施密加多》（Schmigadoon），这是一部别出心裁、充满爱意地调侃与解构音乐剧本身陈词滥调的讽刺佳作，讲述了一对迷失的夫妇意外被困在一个超凡脱俗、打破常理的小镇里，那里的居民总是毫无征兆、随时随地突然开始纵情歌唱——这对于一些务实的人来说简直是噩梦，但对另一些心怀浪漫的人来说则是终极美梦。
在众多光环中，引人瞩目的是昨晚的一位特殊提名者。虽然她最终与奖项擦肩而过，但仅仅是能够作为候选人站在那个聚光灯下，就已经毫无争议地创下了一项令人惊叹的历史纪录。她就是现年已96岁高龄的传奇女演员琼·斯奎布（June Squibb）。回溯时光，整整66年前，风华正茂的斯奎布在百老汇舞台上获得了自己的首个珍贵角色；而在跨越了半个多世纪的漫长岁月之后，她凭借在深刻探讨人类衰老必然性与无尽悲伤的戏剧《玛乔丽的朝圣》（Marjorie Prime）中直击灵魂的精彩表现，终于首次迎来了迟到的托尼奖提名。她曾感慨地告诉《纽约时报》，周围的人曾善意地反复警告过她，在她这样的耄耋之年接演强度极高的百老汇角色可能会让身体难以承受，毕竟一周连续八场的高压演出对任何体力充沛的年轻人来说都是巨大的极限挑战，但内心燃烧着艺术之火的斯奎布还是以惊人的意志力坚持了下来。令人敬佩的是，她最近不仅没有停下脚步，反而接演了令人眼花缭乱的众多角色，其活跃的身影不仅限于戏剧界，在电视和商业大制作电影领域也同样大放异彩。在跨过90岁的人生门槛之后，她甚至还奇迹般地迎来了自己演艺生涯中首个电影绝对女主角的身份。近期，在与知名影星艾米·波勒（Amy Poehler）的一档深度播客对话中，当被直白地问及对衰老的看法以及到底打算将演艺生涯延续到什么时候时，这位充满生命活力的女演员坦然且幽默地回应，即使能活到两百岁，她也依然深信自己会继续站在挚爱的舞台上工作。
Original English Source
And finally, it was Broadway's biggest night of the year last night with the Tony Awards. A star-studded production of Death of a Salesman took home the most statues, six in all, including for best play revival. For best new musical, the Tony went to Schmigadoon, a satire that lovingly skewers musical theater, imagining a couple stuck in an otherworldly town where people just keep bursting into song. Some people's nightmare, some people's dream.Now, one of the nominees last night who did not win, but likely set a record just by being in the mix, was the 96-year-old actress June Squibb. Squibb landed her first Broadway role 66 years ago, and this was her first nomination more than half a century later for a role in Marjorie Prime, a play about aging and grief. She told the Times that people warned her taking on a Broadway role at her age might be a lot. Eight shows a week is a lot for anyone, but Squibb powered through. She's actually had a whole bunch of roles recently, not just in theater, but also in TV and feature films, where she got her first leading roles after turning 90.
She recently talked about aging and just how long she plans to keep acting on a podcast with Amy Poehler. "Do you want to make it 200?" "Oh, sure." "Yeah." "Yeah." "Yeah, that's a great number to make it to." "say I'll still be working, so" "[laughter]" "I don't know about that."