第一年的旋风与失去动力
Ezra Klein: 他在为历史而战。大写的 G,历史上的伟人。为了被人们铭记,为了以一个名字被人们铭记,为了在这个世界上留下一个印记,这个印记不同于一位典型的总统,或者用他的话来说,不同于一位正常的总统。玛吉·哈伯曼 (Maggie Haberman) 是《纽约时报》的白宫记者,普利策奖获得者,也是《政权更迭》(Regime Change) 一书的合著者,该书由她与乔纳森·斯旺 (Jonathan Swan) 共同撰写。我可以说,这是关于唐纳德·特朗普第二任期前 14 个月的最好的一本书。她现在加入了我们的节目。玛吉·哈伯曼,欢迎回到节目中来。
Original English
Ezra Klein: He is playing for history. Capital G, great man of history. To be remembered, to be remembered by one name, to have left a mark uh on the world that is just different than a typical president or what he would say is a normal president. Maggie Haberman is a White House correspondent at the New York Times, a pulit surprise winner, and the co-author alongside Jonathan Swan of regime change. I would say the single best book on the first 14 months of Donald Trump's second term. She joins me now. Maggie Haberman, welcome back to the show.
Maggie Haberman: 埃兹拉 (Ezra),感谢你邀请我。
Original English
Maggie Haberman: Ezra, thank you for having me.
Ezra Klein: 那么,我想谈谈我阅读这本书的体会,那就是回想起了在特朗普政府执政的前 6 到 8 个月里,存在着多么巨大的能量和凶猛势头,对吧?然后,了解到你们在书中追踪的很多事情——从关税,到政府效率部 (Doge),到社会某些部分向特朗普屈服,再到伊朗战争——到现在感觉它们好像已经严重地失去了某种动力,或者它们最终导致特朗普政府被自己的决策所困。所以我想从宏观层面开始谈起。嗯,这本书主要是关于特朗普执政的第一年。你觉得第二年是什么感觉?
Original English
Ezra Klein: So, I want to talk about the experience I had reading the book, which is remembering how much energy and ferocity there was in the first 6 to 8 months of the Trump administration, right? And then knowing how many of the things that you all were tracking here from the terrorists to Doge to um parts of society bending the knee to Trump to the Iran war by now feel like they have like deeply run out of some kind of steam or they've ended up trapping the Trump administration in its own decisions. So sort of want to start with the big picture. Um this book is really about Trump's year one mostly. What does year two feel like to you?
Maggie Haberman: 首先,感谢你邀请我,我希望乔纳森也能在这里,但是他的妻子很快就要生孩子了。所以,我是得到允许才这么说的。所以,这本书的第一部分被称为“旋风”是有原因的。当你在谈论“失去动力”这一点时,我正在思考。我会用稍微不同的方式来表达。我认为这有点……它并不是非黑即白的。嗯,埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 显然已经不再为政府工作了。我确实认为,政府效率部 (Doge) 所保留的记忆是多么令人惊叹。嗯,他上任了,他本应该改变政府运作的方式。在现实中,Doge 并没有做任何接近它本该做的事情。但是它确实做了一些事情,比如在很大程度上展示了特朗普将如何通过法令来统治。埃隆·马斯克关闭了美国国际开发署 (USAD)。就是直接把它关闭了。关闭了一个完全由国会创建的机构。特朗普最初的单边行动之一就是解雇了一批监察长。嗯,他没有通知国会原因,而他本应该这么做,而且他本应该提前 30 天通知国会。但这些都没有发生。特别是斯蒂芬·米勒 (Steven Miller),推出了一系列行政行动,我想说其中一些并没有失去动力。特别是那些专注于多元、平等和包容 (DEI) 的行动,特别是关于跨性别女性参与体育运动的那一项。嗯,而且肯定他们在边境的很多活动也没有失去动力。如果你是一名特朗普的支持者,并且你是因为这些原因把票投给他——这些事情他确实在竞选活动中谈到过,仅仅是这三件事——你会感到高兴的。他们没有为他的大部分基本盘投票。嗯,中东可能发生另一场潜在的永远的战争。所以,我认为,这不仅仅是失去动力,那是,嗯,注入新的混乱。他现在刚刚发动了一场新的贸易战。所以这是结合了新的关税,加上局势升级回到了与伊朗的交战状态。嗯,对经济来说可能会非常有趣。所以我不认为这是失去了动力,但是对于特朗普来说,事情往往会以一种特定的方式结束。嗯,通常是以某种明显缺乏战略的形式出现。我想说这就是你们现在所看到的。所以我不认为它是失去了动力。它是撞上了特朗普的现实。
Original English
Maggie Haberman: First of all, thank you for having me and I wish Jonathan were here, but uh his wife is having a baby soon. So, and I have permission to say that. So, uh there's a reason that the first section of the book is called Whirlwind. And I was thinking as you were talking about the running out of steam piece. I would put it a little differently. I think it's a little it's not black and white. Um and Elon Musk is obviously not working for the government anymore. I do think it's remarkable how much of Doge's memory hold. um he came in, he was supposed to uh change the way government was going to work. In reality, Doge didn't do anything close to what it was supposed to do. But it did do things like show how Trump was going to govern um by fiat in large measure. Elon Musk shut down USAD. Just shut it down. Shut down an entire congressionally created agency. One of Trump's first unilateral actions was firing a bunch of inspectors general. uh did not notify Congress, which he was supposed to do, about why, and he was supposed to give Congress a 30-day notice. None of that happened. Steven Miller, in particular, rolled out with a bunch of executive actions that I would say some of them didn't run out of steam. The ones focused on DEI in particular, the one about trans women in sports in particular. Um, and certainly a lot of their activities at the border have not. If you were a Trump supporter and you voted for him for those reasons, which were things he did talk about on the campaign trail, just those three, you would be happy. They didn't vote for most of his base. Um, another potential forever war in the Middle East. So, that is, I think, not just running out of steam, that is, um, injecting fresh chaos. He has now just launched a fresh trade war. And so there's the combination of uh new tariffs plus escalation back to uh engaged combat with Iran. Um could be really interesting for the economy. And so I don't know that I think it's that it's run out of steam, but things tend to end one way with Trump. Um and it's usually in some form of uh the lack of strategy being apparent. And I would say that's what you're seeing right now. So I don't know that it's running out of steam. it's running into Trump reality.
特朗普与事件的主导权
Ezra Klein: 我经常想起保守派分析师尤瓦尔·莱文 (Yvall Leven) 在(特朗普)任期初对我说过的话。他说,每一届政府都有一个节奏。起初,他们是事件的主宰者。每个人都在对他们做出回应。
Original English
Ezra Klein: I think often of something that uh the conservative analyst Yvall Leven said to me early in the term. He said that administrations have a rhythm. At first they are the master of events. Everybody is responding to them.
Maggie Haberman: 确实如此。
Original English
Maggie Haberman: It's true.
Ezra Klein: 然后,就变成了他们在对事件做出回应。
Original English
Ezra Klein: And then they are responding to events.
Maggie Haberman: 而在特朗普的案例中,甚至到现在,他经常是在对他自己制造的事件做出回应。
Original English
Maggie Haberman: And in Trump's case, he's often even now responding to events he created.
Ezra Klein: 没错。这正是我在想的,当你刚才说现在有很多报道,例如关于伊朗的报道,说特朗普现在处于一种渴望复仇的情绪中,我觉得用这个词很奇怪,就像他攻击了伊朗,实施了斩首行动除掉了其领导层,威胁要终结其文明,而伊朗还没有完全向他屈服,所以他就像他需要复仇一样,复仇真的是那里合适的词吗?我确信他觉得是。
Original English
Ezra Klein: Correct. which is what I was thinking when you were saying that there's been a lot of reporting for instance on Iran right now that Trump he's in the mood for revenge and I thought it was such a strange word that was being chosen like he attacked Iran decapitated the leadership threatened to end the civilization Iran has not completely capitulated to him so he's like he needs reven like is revenge the right word there I'm sure he feels it is
Maggie Haberman: 我看到了那篇报道,实际上我心里在想,嗯,这是否仅仅是关于你所描述的——即对他发起的一场军事干预的某种报复——或者这是否是他对伊朗持续愤怒的一部分,这种愤怒对他来说是非常真实的,那是关于针对他生命的威胁。
Original English
Maggie Haberman: I saw that reporting and I actually wondered um whether it was just about what you're describing which is some kind of retribution for a military intervention that he began or whether it was part of this ongoing anger at Iran that really is quite real with him about the threats against his life.
Ezra Klein: 你想详细谈谈这个吗?因为我认为这是书中一条重要的线索。
Original English
Ezra Klein: Do you want to talk through that because I think that's an important thread of the book.
伊朗的威胁与刺杀阴谋
Maggie Haberman: 当然。这在很大程度上是书中一条重要的线索,而且我认为这令人难以置信,我不认为,我知道,我的意思是,乔纳森和我的报道确实向我们展示了他在失去权力的那四年里变得多么激进,不仅仅是因为他面临的那些调查,以及他的许多顾问被卷入其中。而且在 2024 年还发生了一件事,就在他在州法院因涉嫌伪造文件而被定罪之后,该案件与向一名声称与他有染的色情明星支付封口费有关,嗯,那是一个巴基斯坦男子被起诉,罪名是与一起雇凶杀人阴谋有关,据称这起阴谋是伊朗参与的。这是一个代理人。
Original English
Maggie Haberman: Sure. It's very much an important thread of the book and I think it was incredibly I don't think I know I mean Jonathan and my reporting really did show us how how radicalizing those four years out of power were not just for the investigations that he was facing and that a lot of his advisers got swept up in. But what also happened in 2024, right after he was convicted in a state court on uh falsifying documents in connection with a hush money payment to a porn star who said he had an affair with her was um it was a Pakistani man who was indicted in connection with the murder for hire plot that was supposed to be allegedly engaged in by Iran. This was a proxy.
Ezra Klein: 指控是,伊朗有一个代理人,试图雇佣一名杀手来暗杀唐纳德·特朗普。
Original English
Ezra Klein: The allegation is Iran was had a proxy who was trying to hire a murderer to kill Donald Trump.
Maggie Haberman: 没错。顺便说一句,他被起诉了,你知道,是在拜登的司法部下被起诉的。
Original English
Maggie Haberman: Correct. and was indicted, by the way, you know, under the Biden Justice Department was indicted.
Ezra Klein: 但是,发生在巴特勒 (Butler) 的暗杀企图就发生在那之后不久,他在那里被枪击,这对于竞选活动来说是一个令人振奋的时刻。
Original English
Ezra Klein: But the assassination attempt in Butler happens right after that where he was shot and it was a galvanizing moment for the campaign.
Maggie Haberman: 这对他来说是一个令人振奋的时刻。嗯,所有这一切在他的脑海中变成了一团巨大的模糊记忆。大概在那段时间——我不记得是在那之前还是之后了——伊朗成功地黑进了竞选经理苏西·怀尔斯 (Susie Wilds) 的电子邮件。据官方称,伊朗是幕后黑手,他们开始公布这些邮件,这对整个竞选团队来说是极度令人尴尬的。这也加剧了他们所有人都有的这种被围攻的感觉,他们在某些情况下因为不同的原因以这种状态回到了白宫,但是对于那个核心小组和特朗普本人来说,伊朗以及这种受到威胁的感觉是持续不断的。在这场战争初期,当阿亚图拉 (Ayatollah) 被杀后,他在与约翰·卡尔 (John Carl) 交谈时,你听到了这一点,特朗普对约翰·卡尔说了一些话,我不认为我后来听他重复过,但他说的是“他们试图抓我两次”。我,你,这有些是我在转述,但大概意思是“我抓了他们一次,他们试图抓我两次”。嗯,不管他指的是什么,我确切不知道“两次”是什么意思,但这告诉了你他的心态是什么。
Original English
Maggie Haberman: It was a galvanizing moment for him. Um, all of that in his mind becomes one big blur. And around that time is when, and I don't remember it was right before, right after, but Iran had successfully hacked the campaign manager's emails, Susie Wilds. accord Iran according to officials was behind it and they start releasing them and that was hugely embarrassing to the entire campaign. It also added to this sense of siege that they all have and they all went back into the White House this way for different reasons in some cases but for that core group and for Trump himself Iran and this feeling of being under threat is constant. You heard it when he spoke to John Carl after the Ayatollah was killed at the beginning of this war and Trump said something to John Carl that I don't think I've heard him say since as a repeat but it was they tried to get me twice. I you some I'm paraphrasing but it was I got them once they tried to get me twice. Um whatever he's referring to I don't exactly know in terms of the twice but it tells you what his mindset is.
特朗普对伊朗的历史态度
Ezra Klein: 我们经常听到的一个故事是,内塔尼亚胡 (Netanyahu) 说服了唐纳德·特朗普参与这场战争。嗯,你知道,[清嗓子]还有另一个故事,说特朗普本人对伊朗有独特的看法,而且已经有一段时间了,他一直说他们不能拥有核武器,他不顾自己顾问的反对,撕毁了奥巴马的核协议,在伊朗问题上一直采取非常强硬的立场。回顾过去几年,我的意思是,你可以找到在(他担任)总统职位之前很久的旧采访,在那里他谈论伊朗在羞辱我们。“当你获得其他国家的尊重时,那么其他国家往往会稍微按照你的方式行事,你可以创造正确的态度。伊朗的局势就是一个恰当的例子,他们扣押我们的人质绝对是完全荒谬的。这个国家(美国)袖手旁观,允许像伊朗这样的国家扣押我们的人质,在我看来是一件可怕的事情。而且我不认为他们会对其他国家这样做。老实说,我不认为他们会对其他国家这样做。”
Original English
Ezra Klein: One story that we've heard a lot is that Netanyahu talked Donald Trump into this war. Um, you know, there's [clears throat] another story that Trump himself had distinctive views on Iran, has for some time, has always said they cannot have a nuclear weapon, tore up the Obama nuclear deal, over the objections of his own advisers, has always had a very hard line on Iran. Going back years, I mean, you can find old interviews way before the presidency where he talks about Iran humiliating us. When you get the respect of the other countries, then the other countries tend to do a little bit as you do and you can create the right attitudes. The the Iranian situation is a case in point that they hold our hostages is just absolutely and totally ridiculous. That this country sits back and allows a country such as Iran to hold our hostages to my way of thinking is a horror. And I don't think they'd do it with other countries. I honestly don't think they'd do it with other countries.
Interviewer: 显然,您主张我们应该派军队进去等等,把我们的小伙子们带出来。
Original English
Interviewer: Obviously, you're advocating that we should have gone in there with troops, etc., and brought our boys out.
Donald Trump: 我绝对是这么感觉的。是的。
Original English
Donald Trump: I absolutely feel that. Yes.
Ezra Klein: 我的意思是,你,你在这个问题上是对的,但是特朗普的很多政治主张似乎深深植根于 80 年代,以及发生在,你知道,70 年代和 80 年代美国的事情。但是在目前这个时候,你认为唐纳德·特朗普为什么会决定在伊朗打一场以政权更迭为导向的战争?
Original English
Ezra Klein: I mean, you you're right about this, but a lot of Trump's politics seem very rooted in the 80s and things that happened to America in the, you know, the 70s and the 80s. But what at this point is your view of why Donald Trump decides to actually do a regime changeoriented war in Iran?
Maggie Haberman: 我们在《政权更迭》中做的最后一部分报道
Original English
Maggie Haberman: The final piece of reporting that we did in regime change
关于伊朗战争与特朗普的决策
Guest: ……关于走向伊朗战争的准备阶段。而且在那里发生了一些事情,我相信要么会被挖掘出来,要么可以拼凑出更完整的图景,但我们当时真的只是集中关注了几次离散的会议和谈话。这些都是在战情室召开的会议。其中一次包括,我得说我回去试图寻找另一个类似的外交领导人来到战情室与美国总统进行非常敏感的情报对话的例子,但我找不到。内塔尼亚胡在2月11日来了,他向特朗普讲述了一个在特朗普听来非常有说服力的故事,说明为什么现在是进行政权更迭的成熟时机。特朗普总是非常容易接受“你可以成为做某事的那个人”这种说法。因此,特朗普说了些类似于“听起来不错”的话。第二天,他自己的中央情报局局长、他自己的国务卿,他们推演了这些方案。他们说,内塔尼亚胡提出的一些建议,以及以色列人所说的“斩首方案”,即清除某些领导人,其中一部分是可以做到的。例如,他们可以削弱伊朗的弹道导弹计划。但内塔尼亚胡提出的政权更迭方案,包括一个类似于谁可以接管的视频,大多数美国人都觉得很荒唐。中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫(John Radcliffe)称之为一场闹剧。马可·卢比奥(Marco Rubio)则更加直白,换句话说,他说是胡说八道。特朗普说,政权更迭将是他们的问题。目前尚不清楚他指的是伊朗还是以色列,但他仍然认为为了实现其他目标,值得一试。所以,是的,这绝对是内塔尼亚胡在提出他的主张。但第一,在我们的报道中,内塔尼亚胡在2024年与特朗普举行了这次会议,本质上是在他们关系破裂后去“亲吻戒指”并主动示好。特朗普私下对他说,这次我对伊朗的态度会强硬得多。这正好是在巴特勒(Butler)事件之后。记住,正如你所说,特朗普在核协议问题上无视自己顾问的反对行事。当然是指奥巴马时期的核协议。2020年初除掉苏莱曼尼(Sulammani)将军也违背了他一些顾问的意愿。这也是使他成为伊朗如此针对的目标的部分原因。但他对伊朗的态度比对中东其他地区的态度更强硬,达到了一种总是让他自己的一些助手感到惊讶的程度,而他现在的助手则完全误读了这一点。我想说,你知道他们会继续坚称他不喜欢内塔尼亚胡,他不喜欢这个,不喜欢那个,而且他肯定会根据谈话对象的不同而说不同的话,但一直很清楚的是,他在这里有一个坚定的观点。特朗普在去年那场为期12天的战争后,认为伊朗是一只纸老虎,因为他们对美国发动的袭击的反应相当冷淡。这就像是向盟友进行了一些精心编排的打击,好吧,美国盟友。特朗普认为这就到此为止了。这完全是他方面的巨大误判,也是对正在发生的事情缺乏了解。而且他刚经历了今年早些时候在委内瑞拉抓捕马杜罗(Maduro)的行动。这也让他相信我们可以做这些事情。我不是说这是一种理性的信念。我只是说那是他的信念,而且他相信事情总是会对他有利。他也是这么对塔克·卡尔森(Tucker Carlson)说的,这也写在书里了。这涉及到了我认为在书中体现出来的一些东西,也是我从我们第一年的报道中,甚至仅仅在这个节目中,思考了很多的东西。
Original English
Guest: was about the leadup to the Iran war. And it was not there there were there were things that happened that you know I'm sure will be either unearthed or could fill out a fuller picture, but we were really just focused on a few discreet meetings and conversations. And these were situation room meetings. One of which included I I have to say that I went and I tried to find some other example that was an analog and I couldn't of a foreign leader coming to the situation room to have a very sensitive intelligence conversation with the US president. And so Netanyahu comes on February 11th and Netanyahu paints this pretty compelling to Trump's ears story about why now is ripe for regime change. And Trump is always very receptive to you could be the person to do XYZ. And so Trump says some version of sounds good to me. his own CIA director, his own secretary of state the next day, they have run these scenarios. They say some of what Netanyahu is proposing and in what the Israelis would call their decapitation scenario of take out certain leadership and then some of it could be done. They could degrade the ballistics missile program at Iran for instance, but that the regime change scenarios that Netanyahu had presented, including a video of like who could take over and most of the Americans found it to be silly. John Radcliffe, the CIA director, called it farsle. Marco Rubio was much more explicit says bull in other words it's and Trump said regime change will be their problem. It wasn't quite clear whether he meant Iran or Israel but he still thought it was worth a try to accomplish the other objectives. So that yes was definitely Netanyahu making a case. But number one, Netanyahu in our reporting in 2024 has this meeting with Trump to essentially go kiss the ring and make nice after a break in their relationship. And Trump says to him privately, I'm going to be much more aggressive on Iran this time. This is right after Butler. Uh remember that as you said he was Trump was doing things against the objections of his own advisers on the nuclear deal. Certainly the Obama nuclear deal. Taking out General Sulammani at the beginning of 2020 was also against what some of his advisers wanted. Um it is part of what has made him such a target for Iran. Um but he is more hawkish on Iran than he is about other parts of the Middle East to a degree that has always surprised some of his own aids and that his current aids have really misread. I would say um you know they will continue to insist that he doesn't he doesn't like Netanyahu, he doesn't like this, he doesn't like that and he definitely says different things to different people depending on who he's talking to but it's always been pretty clear that he has a firm view here and Trump believed Iran was a paper tiger after the 12-day war of last year cuz their response was pretty tepid to the strikes that the US engaged in. It was sort of some choreographed strikes toward allies. Okay, US allies. uh Trump believed that was going to be the extent of it. It it was just a massive miscalculation on his part and a and and a lack of understanding what was happening. And he was also fresh off of this Venezuela effort to capture Maduro earlier this year. That also made him believe we can do these things. I'm not saying that's a rational belief. I am saying that was his belief and he believes things will work out for him always. And he said that to Tucker Carlson which was in the book as well. It it gets to something that I think comes through in the book and I think about a lot from our coverage from the first year even just on this show.
特朗普主义的本质
Ezra: 在我看来,其实没有所谓的“特朗普主义”,只有特朗普。
Original English
Ezra: There's really in my view no Trumpism there's only Trump.
Guest: 没错。
Original English
Guest: Correct.
Ezra: 也就是说,人们浪费了大量的精力去追寻那些所谓的“主义”或“学说”,比如曾经流传的“海湖庄园协议(Mara Lago accords)”,说是要在全球范围内进行大规模的货币再平衡;还有“门罗主义(Donro doctrine, 应指Monroe doctrine)”,对吧?说我们应该把重心放在西半球。我们不应该卷入所有这些……
Original English
Ezra: Which is to say that the amount of energy that gets wasted chasing down purported doctrines um the Mara Lago accords that were getting floated at one point to do a massive you know currency rebalancing all across the world. the Donro doctrine, right? We'd be focusing on the Western Hemisphere. We wouldn't be entangled in all this
Guest: 中东的战争和冲突。
Original English
Guest: war and conflict in the Middle East.
Ezra: 特朗普只是在各种理论中穿梭。我的意思是,有些东西他是坚持的,对吧?他对移民问题态度强硬,而且很长一段时间以来一直如此。这是持续存在的。他在贸易问题上也有自己的看法,但即便是贸易,对吧?其目标也在来回变动。所有那些说“我知道什么是MAGA。我知道什么是特朗普主义。”的人,对吧?如果真有什么的话,正如你所知,JD·万斯(JD Vance)会说,就是“不要新的战争”,结果他们还是错了,因为特朗普才是对的。我想他,他可能是对你说的这个。
Original English
Ezra: Trump just weaves in and out of theories. I mean, there are things he holds to, right? He is hawkish on immigration, has been for a very long time. That is sustained. He has his views on trade, but even trade, right? The objectives have flitted back and forth on that. And everybody who says, "I know what MAGA is. I know what Trumpism is." Right? If it is anything, as you know, JD Vance would put it, it's no new wars, they end up wrong because Trump is right. I think he it's possibly you he said it to.
Guest: 《大西洋月刊》的迈克尔·谢尔(Michael Sher)。他是对他说的。
Original English
Guest: Michael Sher at the Atlantic. He said it to.
Ezra: 他才是那个决定者……
Original English
Ezra: He's the one who decides
Guest: 对。
Original English
Guest: right
Ezra: 决定它到底是什么。
Original English
Ezra: what it is.
MAGA运动的内部裂痕
Guest: 他说过,“MAGA就是我所说的那样”。现在我认为这是真的。不过我想,对此我有一个稍微不同的看法。我总体上同意你的观点,那就是试图把他固定在某种意识形态上绝对是徒劳的,而且一直都是徒劳的。他确实有这些他非常感兴趣的、类似于本我的冲动,但这并不意味着如果场合需要,它们不能被升华。我认为MAGA是一场运动。我真的觉得MAGA并不代表整个共和党。我认为MAGA是共和党内部的一场运动,而在这个框架内围绕特朗普存在的联盟一直非常不舒服和奇怪,因为他会对联盟的不同部分说不同的话,而且我认为他们只是为了他,才愿意去忽略那些不符合他们自己观点的部分。我想不出还有谁能把这场运动中这些不同的面向团结起来。但我确实认为这场运动正在下沉。不仅是……我不应该说下沉。我认为它正在产生裂痕,不仅仅是因为伊朗和以色列的问题。这是从去年的爱泼斯坦(Epstein)事件开始的。我们在书中对此进行了深入探讨。就在那场12天的战争之后,爱泼斯坦危机爆发了,我称之为危机,但它实际上是多届政府在处理一个恋童癖者上的失败。两党中都有人觉得这个人很有趣、有用,或者随便什么。但是,是MAGA运动的领导人在2024年特朗普当选之前的许多年里,一直谈论着需要提高透明度。然后他们就被卷入了其中,因为特朗普不想和这件事有任何关系。他不希望公布任何东西。所以,这变成了一场危机,因为特朗普自己的基本盘对正在发生的事情感到越来越愤怒。受害者们也越来越愤怒,为什么这些文件没有被公布?为什么什么都没被调查?所以最终就出现了这一系列引人注目的事件,我们在书里写了这些,在那些战情室会议上,那个特朗普曾决定让国家在伊朗问题上走向战争的同一个地方,当时却被他们用来进行危机公关,讨论我们如何才能摆脱这个烂摊子。但如果你想追踪特朗普开始失去他自己基本盘的那一刻,那就是在那个时候。
Original English
Guest: Ma is whatever I say it is is what he said. Now I think that's true. Now I guess that I I I have a slightly different take on it though. generally agree with you that trying to pin him to some ideology is just an absolute fool's errand and has always been a fool's errand. He does have these idlike impulses that he is very interested in, but it doesn't mean they can't be supplimated if the occasion calls for it. I think MAGA is is a movement. I do I don't think MAGA is the entire Republican party. I think MACA is a movement within the Rep Republican party and the coalition that exists around Trump in that framework has always been very uncomfortable and strange because he will say different things to different parts of it and I think that they would only be willing to ignore the parts that don't match their own view for him. I cannot think of another figure who can unite these different facets of this movement. But I do think that this movement is is sinking. Not just I shouldn't say sinking. I think that it's it's having fissures not just because of Iran and Israel. It started with Epstein last year. We get into that extensively in the book. Um right after the 12-day war is when the Epstein crisis, and I'm calling it a crisis, what it actually is is a multi-administration failure to deal with a pedophile. Um who people of both parties found entertaining or useful or whatever. Um, but it was the MAGA movement leaders who had been talking about a need for transparency over many years leading up to Trump's election in 2024. And they then get caught up in that because Trump wants nothing to do with this. He doesn't want anything released. Uh, so it becomes a crisis because there is growing anger by Trump's own base about what's happening. There's growing anger by victims about why have these files not been released? Why is nothing being looked at? So you end up in this remarkable series, and we write about these in the book, these situation room meetings, the same place where Trump decided to take the country to war in Iran was what they were using for crisis comms on how do we get ourselves out of this mess. But if you want to track a moment that Trump started losing his own base, it was then.
Ezra: 但他失去他的基本盘了吗?我的意思是,我请过右翼人士来讨论特朗普主义的崩溃以及他失去基本盘的问题。
Original English
Ezra: But did he lose his B? I mean, I had people I've had people on the right on to talk about Trumpism cracking up and him losing his base.
Guest: 然后,你知道,你看看民调,他的基本盘几乎完全支持他。他能够介入任何他想要介入的初选。他……
Original English
Guest: And then, you know, you look at the polls and the base is almost entirely with him. He's able to intervene in any primary he wants. He
Ezra: 似乎并没有以这种方式真正失去影响力。塔克·卡尔森至少在某些问题上与他决裂了。这些事情确实发生了。
Original English
Ezra: has not actually seemed to lose influence in this way. Tucker Carlson kind of breaking with him at least on some issues. These things really happened.
Guest: 然而,他在共和党人中的影响力似乎并未减弱。那些挑战他的人,比如马西(Massie),比如马乔里·泰勒·格林(Marjorie Taylor Green)……
Original English
Guest: And yet his influence with Republicans seems pretty undim. The people who challenged him like Massie, like Marjorie Taylor Green,
Ezra: 他们输了。他们输了。他们出局了。
Original English
Ezra: they lost. They lost. They're gone.
Guest: 他们出局了。不过,我认为有两件事可以同时存在。第一,去年的民意调查显示,即使在他自己的基本盘中——私下里,主要是内部民调——他的支持率也在下降。现在毫无疑问,那些反对他的人,因为共和党的基本盘如此依赖特朗普,会发现自己丢了工作。这是绝对真实的。但与此同时,我从未想过我会看到有足够多的共和党人跨越党派界限,投票支持《爱泼斯坦透明度法案(Epstein Transparency Act)》,而当时唐纳德·特朗普正在公开告诉他们:“别这么做。” 埃兹拉,这是我能想到的唯一一次,他会说:“相信我,不要听那边的。” 而且确实有人没有听他的,甚至包括他自己基本盘里的人。现在,他们……他们的……
Original English
Guest: They're gone. There is I think two things can exist at once, though. A there was polling last year showing that even with his own base private mostly private polling his numbers were ticking down. Now there is no question that people who have opposed him because the Republican base is so Trump dependent will find themselves out of a job. That is absolutely true. At the same time, I never thought that I would see enough Republicans cross over and vote for the Epstein Transparency Act when Donald Trump was openly telling them, "Don't do this." It's the only time I can think of, Ezra, where he would say, "Believe me, not what you're hearing over there." And there were people who didn't, including in his own base. Now, what they what their
特朗普2.0的信息环境与决策模式
Speaker A: 选民在国会中期选举或初选中的偏好,最终并不一定与此相关。我知道我这么说听起来自相矛盾。但我认为这两个事实是同时存在的。
Original English
Speaker A: voter preference ends up being in the midterms or in a primary, it doesn't necessarily correlate to that. And I realize it sounds like I'm saying two things that are contradictory. Um I think these are two facts that exist at the same time.
Speaker B: 这本书中一个非常现实的线索是,特朗普现在还知道些什么?他是在何时、以何种方式知道的?我的意思是,在读你们的书之前,我并不怎么了解娜塔莉·哈普(Natalie Harp)这个人,但这个人就这么跟在他身边,给他打印一些充满爱意的粉丝来信以及右翼媒体的正面新闻报道,但他平时在用“真实社交”(Truth Social),并不是真正活跃在其他平台上。
Original English
Speaker B: A very real thread of the book is this what does Trump know anymore and when or how does he know it? I mean, you have this I wasn't really familiar with Natalie Harp before uh you I I I read the book, but this person who kind of follows him around, gives some printouts of adoring fan mail and positive news stories from right-wing media, but you know, he's on True Social. He's not really on other platforms.
Speaker B: 显然他确实和像塔克·卡尔森(Tucker Carlson)等人有一些接触,所以他也能获取一些信息。但是,在关于他如何了解白宫之外的世界方面,你会如何描述特朗普第二任期与第一任期的区别?
Original English
Speaker B: He clearly has some contact, you know, with people like Carlson and and others and, you know, so he gets some information. But how would you describe the difference in Trump's second term from his first in terms of what he knows of the world outside the White House?
Speaker A: 我再怎么强调特朗普2.0和第一任期有多么截然不同都不为过。现在这届政府基本上是由与他同处一室的六个人管理的。如果你是这届政府中其他地方的高级官员,重大决策可能就这样被制定了;如果你不在那个房间里,你真的就一无所知。特别是国家安全委员会(National Security Council)的跨部门协调机制,现在已经完全不像过去那样运作了。过去通常是通过这种机制把其他部门拉进来参与的,但现在这种情况已经不复存在了。沟通机制也与过去大不相同了。
Original English
Speaker A: You know, I can't stress enough how radically different Trump 2.0 is from term [clears throat] one. So, this government is run basically by a half dozen people who are in the room with him. And if you are a senior official in this government somewhere else, major decisions can get made. And if you're not in the room, like you literally have no idea. The inter agency process in particular at the National Security Council just really doesn't exist the way it used to. And that was often how other agencies would be brought in. That's just not happening now. The comm's process is not quite what it was.
Speaker A: 现在的做法更像是一种纯粹的网络引战和挑衅。正如你所说,他的信息来源是“真实社交”。过去在他上一任期的时候,他还会用所谓的Twitter,看看别人的回复,关注一下热门话题趋势。他过去会和更多的人交流,除了福克斯新闻(Fox News)之外,他也会看其他的有线电视频道。乔纳森(Jonathan)和我最近了解到,他周末经常看MSNBC。我们是在他似乎看了我们关于这本书的某次采访节目之后才知道这一点的。所以,情况比表面上看起来要稍微多样化一点,但大部分信息还是来自被称为“人肉打印机”的娜塔莉·哈普,以及那些知道他需要源源不断的正面反馈的人,而他的助手们则害怕给他带来坏消息。我还想指出一点,福克斯新闻在这一任期对他的批评,比上一任期少得多了。甚至在新闻节目上,一切都非常正面,尤其是关于战争的报道。他们几乎是所谓“MAGA媒体生态圈”里,最后一个还在大力支持这场战争的媒体了。
Original English
Speaker A: It was now it's just sort of pure trolling. Um and he gets his information as you said from Truth Social. It used to be that he would get on what was known as Twitter and he when he was president last time and he would look at the replies and he would look at the trending topics. Uh he would talk to more people. He does watch other cable channels besides Fox. Um we we learned recently that he watches um Ms. Now a lot on the weekends. We Jonathan and I learned that as after he appeared to have watched one of our appearances talking about the book. Um, so it's a little more variegated than it seems, but most of the information is coming from Natalie Harp, who's known as the human printer, from people who know that he wants a constant supply of positive reinforcement, and his aids are afraid of giving him bad news. And I just want to make one other point, Fox is so much less critical of him this term than they were last term. Um, even on the the news shows, it is all pretty positive and especially about the war. They are like the last in anything that would be considered the MAGA media ecosystem that is really championing this war.
特朗普决策环境的封闭性与随意性
Audio Clip: 我们在20码线停火。我们应该直接冲进达阵区。
Original English
Audio Clip: We stop the fighting in the ceasefire in the 20 yard line. We take it into the end zone.
Audio Clip: 既然你开始了这件事,就必须要有结束。唯一的结束方式就是伊朗人的彻底投降。我不想这么说,但就是彻底消灭。这位总统之所以名垂千古,以色列总理之所以名垂千古,是因为他们看到了危险,并且勇敢地挺身而出,与危险作斗争。
Original English
Audio Clip: Once you start this, there needs to be a finish. And the only finish is complete surrender by the Iranians. I hate to say it, but complete annihilation. The reason this president will go down in history for a thousand years, the reason the prime minister of Israel will go down in history for a thousand years is because they saw the danger and they stood up to the danger and they're fighting the danger.
Speaker B: 那么,你认为目前的这些决策,在多大程度上反映了他所处信息环境的改变?
Original English
Speaker B: So, how much do you think the decisions being made reflect an altered informationational environment for him?
Speaker A: 这是一个很好的问题,但我认为我们目前还没有完整的答案。有一个反复出现的问题是,他是否知道美国的军火库存因为这场战争已经被消耗到了什么程度?对于五角大楼的领导层来说,这并非不可知的事情,但我不知道他们究竟向他汇报了多少。我们在书中描述了这样一个场景:他的经济顾问,特别是商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克(Howard Lutnick),在谈论经济数据——这发生在去年贸易战“解放日”之前——然后特朗普说,那些数字……娜塔莉,给我查查真实的数据,于是她就去谷歌搜索这些数据了。在这次会议中确实有一些反对声音,但他在这一任期内,凭借自身直觉和自己认定的“现实”来行事的意愿,我想说,要比以前强烈得多。
Original English
Speaker A: Well, it's a it's a great question that I don't think that we have the full answer to. I mean, one question that keeps coming up is does he understand how depleted the US um munitions are from this war? Now, that's not an unknowable thing for his own Pentagon leaders, but I don't know how much they're telling him. Uh we have a scene in the book where his advisers, his economic adviserss, particularly Howard Lutneck are trying to uh uh commerce secretary are talking about numbers about uh economic numbers and Trump this is ahead of the trade war liberation day last year and Trump says those are those numbers are Natalie get me the real numbers and so she's googling to find these numbers. Um there was push back in this meeting but his willingness to operate on his own gut and on what he thinks is reality I would say is much sharper um this term.
Speaker B: 这里面还隐藏着一个细节,就是你将他的会议描述为一种具有“无边界感”特质的状态。人们在白宫里自由进出。不一定非得是——我确定有时候会是那样,比如“从10:15到10:45,我们与参谋长联席会议开会;到10:45结束,所有人离开”。
Original English
Speaker B: There there's something also tucked in there which is you describe his meetings as having this borderless quality that people are flowing in and out of the White House. It's not necessarily. I'm sure it is sometimes, but you know, from 10:15 to 10:45, we're meeting with the joint chiefs. From 10, you know, that ends, they all leave 10:45.
Speaker B: 那么,你能稍微谈谈那种自由流动的性质吗?因为我认为,他最终获取信息以及做出决策的方式,实际上正是反映了这一点——在特定时间、针对特定问题,稍微带有随机性的人员组合。
Original English
Speaker B: So, can you talk just a bit about that kind of that free flowing nature because I think the way he ends up getting information, making decisions actually reflects that, the slightly random assemblage of people who might be around on a certain issue at a certain time.
Speaker A: 这一点毋庸置疑。但这也是他有意为之的设计。与第一任期相比,白宫的这群幕僚更愿意接受并配合他的这种首选工作状态。2017年,莱恩·普里巴斯(Reince Priebus)担任白宫首任幕僚长时,他一直试图把各项事务纳入特朗普的日程安排中。一开始,他们打算安排早间会议,试图阻止他在早上发推文,后来会议时间开始往后推,因为这根本行不通。他们还尝试过监听他的电话,这也不起作用。这就是特朗普一直以来的特点:他的一天漫长而随意。有时候他似乎有大把的时间,而且没有那种“这人不能进来”的明确限制。或许某些特定时刻或特定会议会有规定,但总体而言,他实行的是“敞门政策”(open door policy),一切都变成了一场滚雪球式的会议。
Original English
Speaker A: There's no question about that. But it's also um yes that is by his design. Uh this White House group of staffers uh is much more willing to work with that as his preferred state than term one. You had Ryan Priebus come in as the first White House chief of staff in 2017. He kept trying to put things on Trump's schedule. First it was we're going to schedule early meetings to try to get him to stop tweeting in the morning. Then the meeting started sliding back and that wasn't working. They tried monitoring his phone calls. That didn't work either. Um this has always been a facet of Trump is just there's a big long kind of day and sometimes he has all the time in the world but there is no sort of this person cannot come in there might be certain moments like that or specific meetings but in general he does have an open door policy everything becomes this rolling ball session
Speaker A: 书里还有另一个例子:劳拉·卢默(Laura Loomer)在四月份——我想那正好是“解放日”——加入了会议。她直接与他协商好了这次会面。她递给他一份名单,上面都是她认为对特朗普不忠诚、应该被解雇的国家安全人员。他在听着,而且他采取了行动。但就在会议进行到一半时,众议员斯科特·佩里(Scott Perry)也带着他自己有问题要解决的清单走了进来,特朗普就让他们都在场。所以是的,他的注意力焦点取决于摆在他面前的是什么。
Original English
Speaker A: and so I'll give you another for instance in the book Laura Loomer comes into this meeting in in April um I think it was liberation day actually and she hands him this list of and she had negotiated this meeting with him directly um of of uh national security staffers who who she believed were being disloyal to him and that should be fired and he's listening and you know he acts on it but in the middle of that meeting um Congressman Scott Perry comes in to join with his own list of things that he has an issue with and Trump just has them there and so yes the focus is whatever is in front of him
Speaker B: 然后他就向某个助手下达命令,他们就去照办了。
Original English
Speaker B: and he just barks in order at some aid and they go off and do it
Speaker A: 是的,就是“把事情办好,我要快,不管他面前摆的是什么”。你说得对,这确实与他所获得的信息和注意力有关,但想要阻止这种模式也是徒劳的,因为已经有很多人尝试过了。
Original English
Speaker A: yes it's just get it done I want it fast fine what'sever in front of his Uh you are correct that it does have to do with the attent the information he's getting but trying to stop that is also useless because many have tried.
与现实脱节的执政现状
Speaker B: 这也许又回到了我一开始在绕圈子讨论的问题——也许“势头耗尽”并不是一种准确的说法。但在我面对此类报道时,我总是会好奇,他对于事情的发展到底持有怎样的一种图景?因为在我看来,他的贸易战简直是一场灾难,极其不受欢迎,甚至被最高法院撕得粉碎。这让人们对他非常愤怒,并且一事无成。我们并没有看到制造业岗位的全面复苏,而中国现在也没有变得更弱。我认为广泛且正确的观点是,中国现在的地位比特朗普重返白宫时要强得多。
Original English
Speaker B: This maybe goes back to the the question I was circling at the beginning and and maybe out of steam is not the right way to put it. But I always wonder with him and particularly around reporting like this what picture he has of the way things are going because you know from where I sit his trade war has been a disaster. It is wildly unpopular. It has been shredded by the Supreme Court. Has made people very angry at him and it has accomplished nothing. We're not seeing a huge resurgence in manufacturing jobs. China's not weaker now. I think the broad and correct view is China's in a much stronger position today than when Trump stepped back into the White House.
Speaker B: 所以基本上,他们在贸易战上承诺的一切都没有实现,而且政治后果非常糟糕。“政府效率部”(DOGE)在几个月后就彻底崩溃了。它造成了可怕的破坏。美国国际开发署(USAID)被掏空和裁撤。有人因此丧命。但这并没有像许多人预期的那样,凝聚成一个所谓的“DOGE 2.0”版本——你知道,像拉斯·沃特(Russ Vought)和其他人那样,去创造一些真正制度化的东西。他不受欢迎。我认为伊朗战争也进展不顺利。而且据我所知,他们没有任何立法议程。
Original English
Speaker B: So sort of everything they promised on the trade war has not happened and the politics of it have been bad. Doge completely collapsed after a couple months. It did terrible damage. It did terrible damage. USAD is gutted and gone. People have died, but it did not then cohhere into what many I think people thought you might get, which is like a Doge 2.0 where you know Russ vote and others like actually create something institutionalized. He's not popular. The Iran war I think is not going well. They [snorts] have no legislative agenda that I can tell.
Speaker A: 没有。
Original English
Speaker A: No.
Speaker B: 他们没有任何说得通的解决生活成本问题的议程。但是,如果你是他,整天有人跟在你后面告诉你你有多棒……
Original English
Speaker B: They don't have a affordability agenda that makes any sense. But if you're him and you got somebody following you around all day telling you you're wonderful,
Speaker A: 是吧?
Original English
Speaker A: right?
Speaker B: 你就会觉得那些对你感到愤怒的媒体只是得了“特朗普错乱综合征”。你还被国际足联主席颁发了和平奖。
Original English
Speaker B: You think the media that is mad at you just has Trump derangement syndrome. you're getting presented with uh peace awards by the head of FIFA.
Speaker A: 不同的首席执行官们走进来,不停地拍你马屁,告诉你你有多伟大。
Original English
Speaker A: Different CEOs are coming in and constantly kissing your ass and telling you how great you are.
Speaker B: 也许你对这些并不买账……
Original English
Speaker B: Maybe you don't buy any of
Defying the Polls and Consequence-Free Scandals
Speaker A: 你已经多次打破了民调的预测。
Original English
Speaker A: You have defied the polls many times.
Speaker B: 你刚刚点明了问题的核心。我们忽然间漏掉了一个我们完全没有讨论过,但我认为在中期选举后大家都会热烈讨论的部分,那就是令人难以置信的、大规模的自我膨胀。如果你是唐纳德·特朗普,并且你一生都在谈论财富、用财富来衡量成功,而你现在的流动资产比以往任何时候都要多,这些财富来自于你所监管的行业,来自于你竞选期间创建的一家公司,现在由你的儿子们和你特别代表的儿子们共同经营。这番话在不久之前真的是不可想象的。而且你这么做的时候,国会里的共和党人一言不发,参议院也几乎一言不发,从我看到的民调来看,选民才刚刚开始关心其中的一部分。老实说,我认为主要原因不是赚了多少钱,尽管我认为这是一个因素。原因在于他们能看到视觉上的标志,所有的纪念碑,还有所有的,你知道的,真的是摧毁了历史悠久的建筑或结构,比如东翼,计划建一个拱门,放下窗帘让人们看不到你的建筑项目等等。对选民来说,符号要容易理解得多。而且选民倾向于认为所有政客都很腐败,但这和我们在美国体制中见过的任何情况都不同。但如果你是他,你就一直是这种行走的道德风险。你的公司在1991年几乎倒闭了。我认为人们不明白当他的赌场过度杠杆化时,他离破产有多近。而且这是发生在他所有的房产上,不仅仅是在那里。你因为各种原因东山再起,但部分原因是银行决定值得继续支持你,而且你父亲也帮了你。你成了一个真人秀明星。你以前从未竞选过市议会,却赢得了总统宝座。你被起诉了四次。你的对手一直在做一些相当自我伤害的事情。乔·拜登在他的任期内,至少在最后两年里表现得相当平庸。你遭到枪击,却幸存下来。你在你的追随者眼中,不仅是追随者,在你的顾问眼中也带有一种神秘色彩,他们称他,或者说曾经称他为“天选之子”。有些情况下他们只是半开玩笑。而且你相信一切都会对你有利,这实际上就是他对塔克·卡尔森所说的话。你知道为什么伊朗战争会顺利解决吗?事情会顺利解决,因为它们总是能顺利解决。所以你相信你的现实比专家告诉你的更好。他觉得经济学很无聊。他真的会告诉顾问他觉得谈论这个很无聊。他想谈论移民,你知道的,强奸或谋杀,或者犯罪。他要做他想做的事。而且,你看,他显然不想再次被弹劾。但是当你不得不说“再次被弹劾”时,我认为这在某种程度上对他来说已经没那么重要了。这也甚至不是第一次了。
Original English
Speaker B: You you just hit on what it is. You've you're suddenly we've left out one piece that we haven't discussed at all that I think we will all be talking about after the midterms a lot, which is the incredible massive self-deing. uh you are richer if you are Donald Trump and you spent your whole life talking about wealth and measuring success through wealth uh and you are now wealthier liquidwise assets than you have ever been from an industry that you regulate from a company that was created during your campaign that your sons are running with the sons of your special envoy. Um it's a sentence that it's really was would have been unimaginable not that long ago. Um and you're you're doing it in Republicans in Congress say nothing and the Senate say almost nothing and voters have only started to care about some of it in polling I'm seeing and I honestly think the main reason is less the money made although I do think that that is a factor. It's that they can see visual signs with all of the monuments and all of the, you know, bla literally blasting through uh longstanding um buildings or structures like the east wing, planning to build an arch, um putting down drapes so people can't see your construction projects and so forth. Symbols are a lot easier for v voters to understand. Um, and voters tend to think all politicians are corrupt, but this is different than anything we have ever seen in the US system. But if you're him, you have been this kind of walking moral hazard. Your company almost sank in 1991. And I think people don't understand how close to ruin he was when his casinos were uh [snorts] overleveraged. It was across his properties. It wasn't just there. You come back through a variety of reasons, but partly because the banks decided it was worth staying with you and your father helped you. You become a reality TV star. You win the presidency after never having run for city council before. You are indicted four times. Your opponents keep doing things that are pretty selfharmful. Uh Joe Biden has a pretty non-spectacular last two years at minimum of his term. uh you are shot at, you survive. You have take on this mystical quality with your f not just your followers but with your adviserss who refer to him or then anyway would refer to him as the chosen one. Um only semi- joking in some cases and you believe everything works out for you which is literally what he said to Tucker Carlson. You know why the Iran war is going to work out? Things are going to work out because they always do. And so you believe that your reality is better than what experts have been telling you. He thinks the economy is boring. He literally will tell advisers he finds this boring to talk about. He wants to talk about immigrants, you know, committing rapes or murdering people or committing crimes. Um, and he's going to do what he wants to do. And he is, look, he obviously doesn't want to be impeached again. But when you have to say again unimpeached, it stuff's mattering as much sort of I think to some extent in his head. It's also not even the first again.
Speaker A: 嗯,这非常正确。这将是再次出现第三次。所以,嗯,我想再次出现第二次。他已经告诉人们,他将赦免每一个走进来的人。你知道,我们在书中写过这个,进入椭圆形办公室一定范围内的人。而且他有最高法院的豁免权裁决,虽然到底什么算作总统行为,让他没有刑事责任,这还不是很清楚,但我怀疑如果真的被追究,大多数行为都会被算作豁免。所以如果你是他,是的,这个时刻可能对其他共和党人来说非常糟糕,但他对自己并不那么担心。
Original English
Speaker A: Well, that's exactly correct. It would be again three. Um, and so again, well, again, two, I guess. Um, he's already told people that he's going to pardon everyone who walks in. You know, we write about this in the book, who's come within a certain radius of the Oval Office, and he has an immunity ruling from the Supreme Court that it's [snorts] still not entirely clear what would qualify as a presidential act where he has no criminal uh exposure, but I suspect it would be most of them if it was pressed. So if you were him, yes, it this moment could be very bad for other Republicans, but he's not that worried for himself.
The Unprecedented Scale of Corruption
Speaker B: 让我问你关于这件事腐败维度的问题。当你私下里和共和党人交谈时,他们通常会承认,他们知道我们正在应对一种规模宏大的腐败……
Original English
Speaker B: Let me ask you about the corruption dimension of this. So when you talk to Republicans off the record, often they will admit they know that we are dealing with a level of corruption that is majestic in its grandeur
Speaker A: ……那绝对是我们以前从未真正见过的。当你……这甚至不是一个有争议的观点。
Original English
Speaker A: that is like nothing we've really seen before. It's not it's not even a debatable point when you
Speaker B: 这不是一个有争议的观点。
Original English
Speaker B: not debatable point.
Speaker A: 我经常听到人们说,无论是在媒体上,还是其他地方的选民、民主党人,都在说,这些故事中的任何一个在其他时候都会让华盛顿陷入泥潭。
Original English
Speaker A: One thing I hear people say all the time um in the media elsewhere just voters, Democrats, is any one of these stories would have consumed Washington at another time.
Speaker B: 嗯哼。
Original English
Speaker B: Mhm.
Speaker A: 会毁掉另一位总统的任期。
Original English
Speaker A: Would have sunk another presidency.
Speaker B: 你会想到,你知道的,克林顿政府时期的旅行门和猪肉期货事件。你会想到,你知道的,特朗普内阁中那位不得不辞职的成员。我想是安迪·普莱斯。
Original English
Speaker B: You think of, you know, travel gate and pig futures in the Clinton administration. You think of the, you know, the Trump um cabinet member who had to resign. I think it was Andy Price.
Speaker A: 对。我想是汤姆·普莱斯。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah. Tom Price, I think.
Speaker B: 汤姆·普莱斯,是因为什么来着?乘坐包机。
Original English
Speaker B: Tom Price for what was it? Taken charter jets.
Speaker A: 他使用了私人飞机。是的。我们实际上在书中提到了这一点。是的。是的。
Original English
Speaker A: He was using jets. Yes. And we we have referenced that in the book actually. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker B: 为什么那些在其他时候本会让华盛顿陷入泥潭,甚至会给特朗普政府成员带来麻烦的故事,似乎对他却毫无影响?对吧?《纽约时报》、《纽约客》和其他媒体都做了很棒的报道。你知道,我们知道的很多,对吧?
Original English
Speaker B: Why is it that stories that would have consumed Washington even would have been a problem for, you know, members of the Trump administration another time seem to slide off of him. Right? There's great reporting being done at the New York Times, at the New Yorker, at other places. You know, we know a lot, right?
Speaker A: 我们现在拥有以前没有的数据。
Original English
Speaker A: We have numbers now that we didn't used to have.
Speaker B: 但为什么他能够用腐败充斥整个环境,然后逃脱在其他政府中必然会面临的后果呢?
Original English
Speaker B: But why has he been able to flood the zone on corruption and then escape the consequences it would have attached to another administration?
The Changing Media Landscape and Tribalism
Speaker A: 嗯,关于这一点我要稍微拆解一下。所以你刚刚列举的那些后果,主要是一个新闻周期的后果,是公共信息的后果。第一,我认为在目前这个时候,如果你是一名记者,你进入新闻界是希望能,或者我不应该说希望,而是期待你写的东西能迫使产生一个结果,并且那是你的终极目标,那你往往会非常非常失望,因为现在是一个完全不同的媒体环境。这种“自己选择冒险”式的党派之争,实际上真的让人们只听他们想听的话。这是第一。第二,你知道,我们没有传唤权,对吧?我们只能写我们所知道的。在过去,调查会由监察长来进行。他在任期一开始就解雇了监察长们。调查本该由国会在两党合作的基础上进行。现在一切都变得部落化了,超越了我们过去看到的任何情况。以前的党派偏见已经相当严重了。呃,众议院共和党人表现得就像特朗普政府的一个分支。共和党众议员和一些参议员,他们仍然把他看作一个名人。是的,显然有一种恐惧因素。他已经表明他愿意毁掉他们的职业生涯,并真正羞辱他们。但是,这帮成年人,你知道,他会把巧克力棒从他们所谓的“诱饵壁橱”里拿出来,那里有总统周边商品什么的。他会,比如,把它们扔给他们。就像好时巧克力棒。而这些众议院议员会像,“哦,给我。”你知道,他们喜欢和他一起乘坐空军一号。并且……
Original English
Speaker A: Well, there I would break that down a little bit. So what you're describing in terms of consequences from what you just ticked through was primarily the consequences of a news cycle, the consequences of public information. And number one, I think that at this point, if you are a journalist and you get into journalism in the hopes that or the or I shouldn't say hopes, in the expectation that what you write is going to force an outcome and that that is your that is your end, you're going to be disappointed very very often because it is a totally different media landscape because there this choose your own adventure partisanship really actually allows people to just hear what they want to hear. Number one. Number two, um, you know, we don't have we don't have subpoena powers, right? We can only write up to what we know. In the past, investigations would have been done by the inspector's general. He's fired inspectors general at the start of his term. They would have been done by Congress on a bipartisan level uh basis. Everything is tribal now, like beyond anything we have seen in the past. It was pretty bad before in terms of partisanship. Um uh the House GOP acts like an arm of the the Trump administration. The Republican House members uh and some senators, they still look at him as a celebrity. Yes, there is obviously a fear factor. He has shown he is willing to destroy their careers and really humiliate them. But the way that they grown men, you know, he'll take chocolate bars out of the what they call the chum closet that has the presidential merch or whatever. Um and he'll like throw them. them. It's like Hershey bars. And these are house members who are like, "Ooh, me." They, you know, they love being on Air Force One with him. And
Speaker B: 有位众议院议员激动地说他知道他的名字。
Original English
Speaker B: the House member gushing that he knew his first name.
Speaker A: 是的。没错。就是“这位名人正在和我说话。不是这位总统,而是这位名人。我看过《学徒》。我认识唐纳德·特朗普。”所以这是其中一个原因。另一个原因是,他几乎从2017年踏入办公室的那一秒,真的是踏入办公室的那一秒起就一直在被调查。所以我认为,公众的期望产生了一种扁平化效应。到了一定程度,一切都变得一样了,你知道,特朗普会用这种方式来抹黑它,称之为猎巫行动。我认为,向人们解释有新的信息对于所有记者来说都是一个挑战。所有这些因素都对他有利。并不存在单一的原因。而且我不认为还会有另一位政治家会有和他一样的经历,但我们拭目以待。
Original English
Speaker A: Yes. Correct. It's this celebrity is talking to me. Not this president. This celebrity. I watched The Apprentice. I knew Donald Trump. So that's one reason why. The other is he has been investigated since almost the second he stepped actually literally the second he stepped into office in 2017. So I think there is a flattening effect with the public in terms of their expectation. At a certain point it all becomes one, you know, Trump would smear it that way. Witch hunt. Explaining to people that there is new information is I think a challenge for journalists across the board. All of that are in his favor. There is not one single reason why. And I don't think there will ever be another politician who will have this same experience as he does, but we'll see.
Speaker B: 你认为如果民主党获得传唤权,情况会改变吗? 呃,我不这么认为,因为我觉得如果你是唐纳德·特朗普,你可以赦免你周围的每个人,你可以指示你的整个政府不要及时回应任何传票,只有在法庭挑战的最终判决迫使你时才这样做。我的意思是,看,特朗普的整个策略就是把人耗死,我们已经一次又一次地看到了这一点。所以他的政府中有一些成员,我也谈过……
Original English
Speaker B: Do you think that changes if Democrats get subpoena power? Uh, no I don't because I think that if you are Donald Trump and you can pardon everyone around you and you can instruct your entire government not to respond to subpoenas with anything timely and only do it once the final stop in a court challenge makes you I mean look Trump's whole thing is waiting people out and we have seen this over and over and over again. So there are um a number of members of his government and I talked
规范与法律的界限 (Norms vs. Laws)
Speaker A: 关于他们所有人是多么激进,他们确实相信自己不仅会收到传票,还会面临起诉。我不仅是在说众议院易主的情况。我指的是在民主党担任总统的任期内。他们真心相信——我并不是在赞同这种观点,我只是说这是他们的视角——“在某个时候,我们会被民主党那边不合法的‘猎犬’起诉。当我们失去权力时,他们会来找我们的麻烦,所以我们要竭尽所能。”这完全就是他们所持有的心态,和他本人一样的“被猎捕”的心态。我只是觉得,那些认为众议院会易主,并且情况会像 2019 年那样的人,我很难看出会是那样。我可能是错的,但当他们发出藐视国会的传票,然后把这些传票交给司法部长托德·布兰奇 (Todd Blanche) 时会发生什么?他会急着展开调查吗?我只是不知道这会是什么样子。但我不认为这会像我们以前见过的任何事情。一位民主党战略家在 2016 年特朗普获胜后曾对我说过,整个国家终于要明白,我们的系统中究竟有多少是依赖于规范,而不是法律。
Original English
Speaker A: About how radicalized they all are, who do believe that they are going to be not just subpoenaed but prosecuted. And I'm not just talking about when the house flips. I'm talking about under a Democratic presidency. They genuinely believe and I'm not endorsing this view. I'm just saying this is their perspective. "We are going to be indicted by an illegitimate hunter of the Democrats at some point they are going to come after us when we are out of power you know so we are going to do everything we can." That is entirely the mindset they have the same hunted mentality that he does um I don't think it's I just think that people who think that the house is going to flip and this is going to look like it did in 2019 I'm struggling to see that I could be wrong, but what happens when they issue contempt of Congress subpoenas and they send them to Attorney General Todd Blanch? Does he rush to start an investigation? Like, I just don't know what this looks like. Um, but I don't see it looking like anything we've seen before. A Democratic strategist said to me in 2016, right after Trump won, that the entire country was about to finally understand how much of our system is norms and not laws.
Speaker B: 从根本上讲,我每次都会回到这一点上。如果你有这样一个愿意破坏每一项规范的人……我是说真的是每一项规范。我想不出有哪一项是他……我确信肯定还有保留下来的,但很难顺着清单找出一项仍然稳固存在的规范。我们有一位总统,在罗伯特·米勒 (Robert Mueller) 去世时,他欢呼雀跃。当据检察官称罗伯·莱纳 (Rob Reiner) 被他自己的儿子杀害时,他也欢呼雀跃。他赚了大量的钱,而他们对此却表现得非常满不在乎。你知道,他们会说这里面没有腐败,然后继续我行我素。他们甚至打算开始利用他“真实社交 (Truth Social)”帖子的提前通知来赚钱。这是一个秘方。你能花一分钟讲讲这个吗,因为那个“真实社交”……
Original English
Speaker B: And fundamentally, I still come back to that every time. If you have somebody who is willing to violate every norm by I mean I'm really every norm. I don't think I can think of one that he I'm sure there's something but it's hard not it's hard to go down the list and find something that is still firmly in place. We have a president who cheered when Robert Mueller died. Um he he cheered when Rob Reiner was killed by his own son according to prosecutors. um he is making a ton of money and they're almost they're very blasze about it. Um you know they will say this is there's no corruption here as they continue doing what they're doing. They're about to start trying to monetize his truth social posts for advanced notice. It's a it's a recipe. Can you talk through that for a minute cuz that that the truth social uh the
Speaker A: 我知道,这很难描述,因为我记得……
Original English
Speaker A: I know [clears throat] it's like it's hard to describe because I remember
Speaker B: 试图将其变现,他们正试图通过快速交易来赚钱。
Original English
Speaker B: trying to monetize they're trying to monetize um rapid trading
Speaker A: 没错。
Original English
Speaker A: correct
Speaker B: 在“真实社交”上。但是你能解释一下具体是怎么做的吗?
Original English
Speaker B: on True Social, but but can you explain how
Speaker A: 是的。他们想要做的是以非常非常高的金额出售——我想大概是 10 万美元——特朗普“真实社交”帖子的提前通知权,因为他的帖子可以影响市场,而且确实在影响市场。看起来时机已经成熟了,哪怕这对特朗普来说并不违法,因为总统实际上并不受到与他的幕僚们相同的道德标准、法律和法规的约束。我的意思是,这怎么可能不演变成别的事情呢?所以不管怎样……
Original English
Speaker A: Yes. What they're trying to do is sell for very very high dollar amounts. I think it's like $100,000 advanced notification of Trump's truth posts because they can move markets and do move markets. It seems ripe for even if even if it's not violating a law for Trump because presidents are actually not held to the same ethical standards and laws um uh and regulations as their staff. I mean, how does this not become something else? So anyway,
Speaker B: 嗯,这涉及到了我认为你刚才所谈论的内容,我觉得对于我们刚才讨论的问题的最深层答案是——共和党人。
Original English
Speaker B: well, it it goes to something I think in what you were just talking about, which is I think the deep answer to the question we were just discussing is Republicans.
Speaker A: 这是最根本的答案。
Original English
Speaker A: It's it's the it's the fundamental answer
Speaker B: 在某种层面上,对吧?就像在其他政府中……
Original English
Speaker B: on some level, right? Like in other administrations,
Speaker A: 甚至是你党内的同僚在面对这种事情时也会说不。现在,可以说共和党人在国税局 (IRS) 的行贿基金问题上确实做了一点点。
Original English
Speaker A: even your co-partisans on something like this would say no. Now, arguably Republicans did that a bit on the IRS slushf fund.
Speaker B: 我的意思是,那实在是太厚颜无耻了,让人很难不去反感。我实际上甚至不记得了,法官当时是不是在他们这样做之后就已经对那件事提出过质疑了?那件事给他们提供了掩护吗?我甚至记不清了。但是的,我的意思是,这是你在拿纳税人的钱做这种事。这是纳税人的钱。华盛顿过去的运作方式不仅关乎问责制,还关乎调查机制……
Original English
Speaker B: It was I mean that was so brazen that it was a little hard um not to have problems with it. And I actually I don't even remember if had the judge already raised questions about that once they did. Did that give them cover? I don't even remember. But but yes, I mean this was this was you're taking taxpayer money and doing this. It's the taxpayer money. a lot of how not just accountability but investigation worked in Washington
Speaker A: 我是说,要么是另一方掌权,所以他们能够组织调查,而且各机构的管理更加专业,司法部的运作更加独立,因此他们会对调查做出回应,对传票做出回应……
Original English
Speaker A: was it I mean either the other side was in power so they were able to structure investigation and that the agencies are run more professionally the department of justice run more independently and so they responded to investigation and responded to subpoenas
Speaker B: 那就创造了一种结构,一个信息不断爆出的序列,你懂的,可能产生的后果以及人们被叫到国会面前质询,而且每一次都会成为一则新的新闻报道……
Original English
Speaker B: and that creates a structure of and a sequencing of information coming out and you know possible consequences and people being hauled before Congress and Each one is a new news story
Speaker A: 然后这就形成了比如国会行动和媒体报道之间的联系,让人们明白这是一桩丑闻。
Original English
Speaker A: and that's how you get the connection of like a congressional operation and like media coverage that people understand is a scandal.
Speaker B: 是的。好吧,那确实如此。我的意思是……
Original English
Speaker B: Yes. Well, that is true. I mean,
Speaker A: 这就是它的运作方式。而且没错,共和党人就是不打算这么做。
Original English
Speaker A: that's how it works. And right, Republicans just are not going to do that.
Speaker B: 不,他们不打算。你知道,他们最接近这种情况的一次可能要算是——我在这里真的是在极其勉强地使用“最接近”这个词,所以请先顺着我的思路听我说一会儿。但在你说这绝对没有任何可比性之前(因为我也不是说它具有可比性),最接近的一次可能是他们围绕爱泼斯坦 (Epstein) 所做的一些事情,但当然,后来这扯到了克林顿家族以及各种乱七八糟的事情上。我说的只是最初詹姆斯·科默 (James Comer) 的委员会,该委员会向帕姆·邦迪 (Pam Bondi) 发出了一张让本届政府不高兴的传票。然后他们就开始消极怠工。但是没有,根本没有可以类比的。我的意思是,如果你回顾上一次试图保持适度两党合作的真正努力,那将会是 1 月 6 日事件委员会,那个特别委员会当时正在调查国会大厦 1 月 6 日暴乱前夕发生的事情,以及特朗普推翻选举结果的企图。但即使是那一次,最终也演变成了党派政治,所以情况就是这样。
Original English
Speaker B: No, they're not. Um, you know, the closest that they have come would have been, and I am really stretching the word closest here, so just roll with me for a second. But before you say this is absolutely not at all parallel, cuz I'm not saying it is, but the closest would have been some of what they were doing around Epstein, but of course that took a detour to the Clintons and all kinds of other stuff. Um, and by that I just mean James Comr's committee initially, uh, which was filing a subpoena to Pam Bondi that the administration [clears throat] was not happy with. And then they slow rolled that. But no, there's no there's no analog. I mean, if you look back at the last real effort that attempted to be moderately bipartisan, it would have been the J6 committee and uh the select committee that was investigating what happened uh in the leadup to the January 6th riot at the capital and Trump's efforts to overturn the election. But even that devolved into partisan politics and so there you have it.
国会的附庸地位 (Congress as a Supplicant)
Speaker A: 让我感到震惊的是,国会在这本书里扮演的角色竟然如此之小。
Original English
Speaker A: It was striking to me how small of a role Congress played in this book.
Speaker B: 嗯,有几个原因。这是一个很好的观点,但现实是国会扮演的是一个恳求者的角色。我们确实讨论过这个。我们谈到了迈克·约翰逊 (Mike Johnson) 与特朗普的关系,以及这在历史上是多么的极不寻常。我能想到的历史上,还没有哪位众议院议长和总统之间存在过这样的关系,简直就是“直接按这种方式给我下达命令”。这根本无关乎政策。完全是关于你想让它变成什么样。但现实是,他们没有立法议程。正如你所说,有那么一个漂亮的大法案,我们确实谈过它,而且我们也确实深入探讨了其中的内容,但这届政府知道,他们在立法方面永远不可能有太大的作为。但是,这对我来说又回到了那个问题上:究竟这里实际建立起了什么,而不是在很多这些问题上只是崩溃或被束之高阁?
Original English
Speaker B: Uh, well, there's a couple of reasons. It's a good it's a it's a it's a point, but the reality is that Congress plays a supplicant role. We did talk about that. We talked about Mike Johnson's role with Trump and how incredibly unusual it is historically. There's just there has not been a relationship like this between a house speaker and a president that I can think of where it's literally give me my marching orders this way. That is not about policy. It's about just whatever you want it to be. But the reality is there is no legislative agenda. As you said, there was the one big beautiful bill and we did talk about that and we do get into what went into that, but this administration knew that it was never going to be able to do much legislatively. Um, but this again goes to me to to this question of what is actually being built here versus what is just kind of collapsing or being like left alone on even a lot of these issues.
Speaker A: 好吧,所以那个漂亮的大法案确实通过了。这是一个巨大的改变,而且你知道,对医疗补助 (Medicaid) 和食品券及其他事情的实际修改包含了很多内容,围绕着这些产生了大量的政治动荡。
Original English
Speaker A: Okay, so the big beautiful bill did pass. It's a big change and you know as the actual changes to Medicaid and food stamps and other things were a lot of things that have a lot of um political upheaval around that.
Speaker B: 是的。而且会有更多的焦点,也会有更多的报道和关注。我同意这一点。
Original English
Speaker B: Yes. And there will be more focus and there will be more coverage and interest. I agree with that.
Speaker A: 你看,他们的贸易议程被彻底破坏了。
Original English
Speaker A: Look, their trade agenda got gutted.
Speaker B: 他们本可以去国会找共和党人获取更多的关税权力。但他们选择不那么做。国会中的共和党人会阻止他们改变阻挠议事 (filibuster) 制度吗?
Original English
Speaker B: They could have gone to Republicans in Congress to get more power on tariffs. They chose not to do that. Would Republicans Congress keep them from ever changing the filibuster?
Speaker A: 我不知道。好像他们在这方面表现得有些强硬,但他们也像是在边缘稍微试探了一下。
Original English
Speaker A: I don't know. like they've been kind of tough on that but they've also like nicked it around the edges a little
Speaker B: 一点点。移民问题……他们在移民问题上做了大量的工作。我觉得在你所能看到的所有事情中,他们在移民问题上做得最多。
Original English
Speaker B: a little immigration um they have done a tremendous amount immigration I think of everything you can look at they have done the most on immigration
Speaker A: 完全正确。
Original English
Speaker A: correct
Speaker B: 他们所没有做的,是修改法律。
Original English
Speaker B: what they have not done is change the laws
Speaker A: 好吧,因为那需要时间。我的意思是,这并不复杂,这是……
Original English
Speaker A: well because that takes time I mean this isn't complicated this is
Speaker B: 但这也意味着另一届政府可以……
Original English
Speaker B: but it also means that another administration can
Speaker A: 我明白这一点,但他们也认为不管怎样那都会发生的。我想,仅仅是为了试图解释这里的心态……那个花最多时间的人,我很高兴你提到了移民问题。那个花最多时间思考特朗普 2.0 版的人,而且不仅是从移民的角度来看(尽管那显然是他具有驱动性和决定性的议题),这个人是斯蒂芬·米勒 (Stephen Miller)。他花了四年时间不仅关注他这次想要做些什么不同的事情来变得更加……我的意思是,你知道 2017 年最初的穆斯林禁令是一场灾难,是一场在法庭上受到挑战的灾难,不仅写得糟糕透顶,而且在航班上造成了大规模的混乱等等。斯蒂芬·米勒花了四年时间去研究,在很多事情上,法律可以走多远。什么是行政部门控制范围内的,什么可以被宣称为行政部门的权力,而他们在这些方面已经做了很多。而且正如你所知,他们在这上面卷入过法庭,情况也就是那样……
Original English
Speaker A: I understand that but they also assume that's going to happen regardless I mean I think that just to try to explain the mindset here um the person who spent the most time and I'm glad you brought up immigration. The person who has spent the most time thinking about a Trump 2.0 know and not just from the perspective of of immigration but obviously that's his driving issue and defining issue is Steven Miller and he spent four years focused on not just what he wanted to do differently this time to be more of I mean you know the initial Muslim ban was a disaster um and a court challenged disaster and it was poorly written and so forth in 2017 and it it created mass chaos on flights and so forth. Steven Miller spent four years looking at how far the law could go on a number of things. What was in the executive branch's control, what could be claimed as an executive branch power, which they've done a lot. And they've gotten caught in courts on this, as you know, and that's sort of
法庭斗争与政府程序的博弈
Speaker A: 我认为,你刚才所说的部分意思是,如果你不想陷入一场大规模的法庭斗争,那就去按部就班地走实际的法定程序。但他们却宁愿进行一场大规模的法庭斗争,因为如果你走法定程序,进展将会非常缓慢。而他们的赌注是,他们在大多数情况下都能赢。虽然不是每一次都能赢。当时的贸易议程由于种种原因成为了一场彻头彻尾的灾难,但这不仅仅是因为他们没有通过国会。那是因为那套方案从根本上就毫无意义。
Original English
Speaker A: part of what you're saying, I think, is if you don't want to have a big court fight, go work through the actual process. They would rather have a big court fight because if you go through the process, it's going to move slowly. and their gamble is that they can win much of the time. Not every time. The trade agenda was a calamity for a variety of reasons, but it wasn't just because they didn't go to Congress. It was because the formula made no goddamn sense.
Speaker B: 但是,政府效率部(Doge)是另一个例子,Doge 就是一个绝佳的例子。
Original English
Speaker B: >> But Doge is another example where Doge is a great example.
Speaker A: 要想做他们想做的事情,你实际上需要进行彻底的公务员体系改革。
Original English
Speaker A: >> To do what they wanted to do, you actually need to do civil service reform.
Speaker B: 他们已经做了一点点这方面的工作,但这算不上是真正的公务员改革。没错,是的。
Original English
Speaker B: >> And they've done a little bit of that, but it's not civil service reform. Correct. Yes.
Speaker A: 但这又不是——这其实引出了一个截然不同的问题。他们并没有全部——那里并没有一个——实际上他们并没有完全——他们并没有都在和谐地工作,尽管他们集体想要的是同一个目标,即粉碎左派,扩大我们的权力,集中精力在一系列特定的问题上,而且我们在本节目中已经详细讨论过其中许多问题。但拉斯·沃特(Russ Vought)实际上深刻了解政府是如何运作的,而埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)却不了解。他只是冲进来,开始横冲直撞地砸穿墙壁,嗯,在某些情况下是字面意义上的。你知道,物理层面的事物受到了他处理事情方式的影响。这与斯蒂芬·米勒(Stephen Miller)想要处理某些事情的方式也完全不同。所以这就不可避免地制造了它自身内部的冲突与崩溃。然后再把国会作为一个层面加进去。这就很难预料了。
Original English
Speaker A: >> But that's not again who this actually gets to a different problem. They don't all there's no there isn't a they actually they don't total they don't all work in harmony even though they collectively want the same thing which is crush the left expand our power focus on a a specific set of issues and we've gone over many of them on this show but Russ vote actually understands how government works Elon Musk did not he just came in and started punching through walls um in some cases literally you know physical aspects were impacted by by how he handles things. That is different also than how Steven Miller wants to handle certain things. And so that creates its own internal crash. Then add Congress to that as a layer. It's hard to see.
核心圈子权力的转移与内部动态
Speaker B: 在过去的一年里,法庭上掌握核心权力的人有没有发生转变?
Original English
Speaker B: >> Has there been a shift in who holds power in the court in the last year?
Speaker A: 有的,但这可能会变化得非常迅速。马可·卢比奥(Marco Rubio)很长一段时间里在特朗普(Trump)那里拥有很多政治资本。我认为他现在依然如此,但他确实没有那么深入地参与伊朗问题。嗯,他是——
Original English
Speaker A: >> Yes, but it can change quite rapidly. Marco Rubio had a lot of capital with Trump um for a long time. I think still does, but he is really not that involved in the Iran issue. um he is
Speaker B: 是因为特朗普不想要他参与,还是因为他自己不想靠近这个问题?
Original English
Speaker B: >> because Trump doesn't want him or because he doesn't want to be near it.
Speaker A: 我——我认为更可能是后者。老实说,我认为特朗普会更欢迎他、嗯、有更多的参与,但是——他现在可能会更多地参与进来,但是,呃,我们,你知道,他已经稍微多谈论了一点这件事,但是,呃,我认为卢比奥,如果你把他绑在测谎仪上,他绝对会说这并不是他希望事情发展的方向。嗯,苏西·威尔斯(Susie Wiles)依然有着巨大的影响力。斯蒂芬·米勒,尽管有那些传言说在明尼苏达州雷妮·古德(Renee Good)和亚历克斯·弗雷迪(Alex Freddy)被杀后,他的权力被削弱之类的,但那被极大地夸大了。那种炫耀式的武力展示,你知道的,比如从黑鹰直升机索降到芝加哥的一栋建筑里——我至今仍然无法相信去年居然发生了这种事——但他们已经停止了那种大规模的武力展示。他们仍在使用武力,但这不像,你知道的,以前那些移民海关执法局(ICE)的大规模搜捕那样了。现在主要是交通拦截。这就是最近这些枪击事件的起因。斯蒂芬·米勒已经降低了他与去年相比逮捕无证移民的数量指标。去年是每天 3000 人。现在是每天 2000 人。他又回去向人们施压了。而且他在这些电话中表现得非常、非常咄咄逼人。所以,[哼鼻息声] 米勒依然拥有权力,因为米勒也可以直截了当地告诉特朗普,“我可以非常迅速地为你争取到你想要的东西。” 这也是为什么他们不去国会的原因。他们想要单方面采取行动。特朗普想要单方面采取行动,他只是想做他想做的事。嗯,海格塞斯(Hegseth)实际上在特朗普那里仍然相当有权势。拉特克利夫(Ratcliffe)在某些特定问题上也是如此。但最有权势的人始终是特朗普。毫无疑问,就是这样。
Original English
Speaker A: >> I I think it's more the latter. Honestly, I think that Trump would welcome his um involvement more, but and he may get more involved now, but uh we you know, he's been talking about it a little bit more, but uh I think that Rubio, if you strapped him to a polygraph, this is not where he wants things to be. Um Susie Wilds is still hugely influential. Steven Miller, despite these stories about how he was getting his wings clipped and whatever after Renee Good and Alex Freddy were killed in Minnesota, that was vastly overstated. The showy displays of, you know, repelling into a building in Chicago from a Blackhawk, which I still can't really believe happened last year, but they have stopped the the great displays of force. They are still using force and it but it's not, you know, these ice drives the same way. It's the traffic stops. That's what the latest shootings were about. Steven Miller has taken down his arrest number for undocumented immigrants from last year. It was 3,000 a day last year. Now it's 2,000 a day. And he's back to pushing people. And he's very, very aggressive on these calls. So [snorts] Miller still has power because Miller can also tell Trump, I can get you what you want very quickly. Which is also again why they don't go to Congress. They want to act unilaterally. Trump wants to act unilaterally and he just wants to do what he wants. Um, Hexath is still actually pretty powerful with Trump. Radcliffe is on certain issues. But the person who is most powerful is Trump. Period.
Speaker B: 海格塞斯在特朗普那里很有权势。特朗普听他的。
Original English
Speaker B: >> Hegath is powerful with Trump. Trump listens to him.
Speaker A: 他在特定问题上会听他的。海格塞斯已经弄清楚了该如何进行有效的对话。听着,海格塞斯,如果说有谁是支持伊朗的,那就是海格塞斯了。嗯,但是我——我不认为他也完全预料到了事情会这样发展。海格塞斯经常和丹·基恩(Dan Kaine)一起出席给特朗普的这些简报会。他已经摸索出了如何处理这些讨论,因此他会转向那些实际上对战术有更好理解的人。呃,但特朗普确实会听他的,而且这位前将军——
Original English
Speaker A: >> He listens to him on certain issues. Hegs has figured out how to have conversations. Look, Hegsth, if there was anyone who was in favor of Iran, it was Hexath. Um, but I I don't think he fully envisioned it going this way either. Heath often shows up for these briefings with Trump with Dan Kaine. he has figured out how to handle these discussions so that he is turning to somebody who actually has better tactical understanding. Uh but Trump does listen to him and the former general who
Speaker B: 这位前将军现在是参谋长联席会议主席,但他的风格与特朗普上一任参谋长联席会议主席人选马克·米利(Mark Milley)截然不同。马克·米利会和特朗普陷入那种类似于抓住特朗普衣领的激烈争吵中。他确实认为自己的职责是明确告诉特朗普应该往哪个方向走。基恩已经告诉人们,他不认为那是他的职责。嗯,海格塞斯是一个——嗯,一个死忠的特朗普支持者,而不是纯粹的“让美国再次伟大(MAGA)”的特朗普支持者。所以这在内部为你赢得了大量的政治资本。
Original English
Speaker B: >> the former general who is now the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff but whose style is very different than Trump's last choice for chairman of the joint chiefs of staff which was Mark Millie who would get into these sort of grab Trump by the lapels arguments. He did see his job as telling Trump which way to go. Kaine has told people he doesn't see that as his job. Um, Hexath is a um a diehard Trumper, not MAGA Trumper. And so that buys you a lot of cash internally.
Speaker A: 是的。所以那——那就是我对他的核心疑问。他是一个特朗普喜欢让他做唯命是从的应声虫的人,还是一个特朗普会认真听取其战略建议的人?
Original English
Speaker A: >> Yeah. So that that was my question with him. Is he somebody who Trump enjoys as a yes man or who Trump listens to for strategic advice?
Speaker B: 更多是前者而非后者,但战略建议也是通过与海格塞斯的这些联合对话巧妙传达的。嗯,但他确实会听他的,他也喜欢他,而且,你知道,他在电视上表现得非常有张力。他很强硬。他——他不——他不接受任何废话等等。而且他是一个极其虔诚的追随者。
Original English
Speaker B: >> More the former than the latter, but the strategic advice is also channeled through these joint conversations with HGsith. Um, but he does listen to him and he likes him and, you know, he's good on TV. He's tough. He he doesn't he doesn't take crap, etc., etc. And he is a devote.
向特朗普作简报的艺术:视觉呈现与奇观的力量
Speaker A: 核心圈子里的人,呃,学到了什么关于如何向特朗普作简报的重要经验?
Original English
Speaker A: >> What have the people uh in the inner circle learned about how to brief Trump?
Speaker B: 这是一个很好的——这是一个极好的问题。
Original English
Speaker B: >> It's a good that's a good question.
Speaker A: 就是这个。这涉及到你书里的很多故事,也就是人们带着展示板进来作报告,对吧?
Original English
Speaker A: >> This is it. It sits around the edge of a lot of the stories in your book of people bringing in poster boards, right?
Speaker B: 嗯,那是菲尔·派(Phil Py)。那是某一个人,但是,是的,我完全明白你的意思。
Original English
Speaker B: >> Well, that's Phil Py. That's one person, but yes, I understand.
Speaker A: 但是我从其他负责简报材料的人那里听说,那些材料非常有视觉冲击力。
Original English
Speaker A: >> But I've heard from other people around the briefing books that they're very visual.
Speaker B: 哦,完全正确,绝对是这样。
Original English
Speaker B: >> Oh, totally.
Speaker A: 告诉我人们关于你如何向唐纳德·特朗普作简报究竟学到了什么。
Original English
Speaker A: >> Tell me what people have learned about how you briefed Donald Trump.
Speaker B: 他——特朗普是非常视觉化的,正如你所说。呃,而且这也是第一个任期的一个——一个很大的方面。现在他们全都顺应了这一点。我认为他们曾经抗拒过这一点,政府官员们,因为这在第一个任期对他们来说太不寻常了,但他真的不喜欢长篇大论的简报手册。嗯,他不会真的去读它们。他希望别人向他直观地展示事情看起来是什么样的。那就是他吸收信息的独特方式。人们是这样形容他的,他们会说他是一个“电视人”,而且他们倾向于认为就像他在《学徒》(The Apprentice)片场那样,但实际上他了解世界的真正方式就是通过电视。所以他喜欢看看事情的样子。仅仅只是对他进行枯燥的事实陈述和冗长的讨论是行不通的,效果非常差。但即使在第一任期使用的是视觉材料,当时的信息质量也相当可靠。现在关于信息质量的争论要激烈得多。无论你是纳入那种实质上是原始的情报,还是向他报告未经证实的消息,或者这只是不同类型的讨论而已。
Original English
Speaker B: >> He Trump is very visual, as you said. Uh, and this was a a big facet of term one, too. Now they all submit to it. I think they resisted it, the government, because it was so unusual to them in term one, but he really doesn't like long briefing books. Um, he doesn't really read them. He wants to be shown how things look. That is how he absorbs them. This is people describe him, they'll say he's a TV guy, and they tend to think of it as him on the set of The Apprentice, but it's actually really how he absorbs the world is through TV. and so he likes to see how things look. Just having a dry recitation of facts and discussions with him doesn't work very well. But even when it was visuals in term one, the quality of the information was fairly reliable. There's a much bigger fight now about the quality of the information. whether you include a like essentially raw intelligence, whether you tell him reports that are unverified, whether it is just a different type of discussion.
Speaker A: 他在很大程度上依赖于一种关于事情在视觉上是如何表现的直观感觉,对吧?书中有一些关键时刻,而且我也听说过,他看到当以色列人现在采取行动时,事情看起来是怎样的。他立刻想要参与其中。或者反过来看,对吧,当别人向他展示可能的内阁任命人选时,他们会给他看这些人在有线电视新闻上的短视频混剪。
Original English
Speaker A: >> The amount that he relies on a sense of how things are either playing visually, right? There are moments in the book where and that I've heard about too where he sees what it's looking like when the Israelis are doing something now. wants to be involved. Or the flip, right, where he is being shown possible cabinet appointees and they give him little montages of them on cable news.
Speaker B: 特朗普的这种特质有一些非常深层次的东西,他不仅仅是通过视觉来理解这个世界。他在某种程度上是一个为世界创造视觉效果的大师级人物。
Original English
Speaker B: >> There is something very deep about Trump's he doesn't just apprehend the world visually. He is a somewhat a master of creating visuals for the world.
Speaker A: 百分之百。是的。他,你知道,海格塞斯呃就是他某种程度上巧妙塞进他的政府中的许多人之一。
Original English
Speaker A: >> 100%. Yes. He you know Hegsth uh is one of many people he sort of cast into his administration.
Speaker B: 他在这方面是一个彻头彻尾的创新者。我的意思是,我认为你必须把姆达尼(Mdani)看作是具有这种能力的不同版本,一种对世界视觉表现的掌控力。我刚在节目中请到了莫里斯·卡茨(Morris Cats)。他们非常——
Original English
Speaker B: >> He was an innovator in this. I mean I think you have to see Mdani as having like a different version of this a kind of visual mastery of the world. I just had Morris Cats on the show. They very much
Speaker A: 找到了格雷厄姆·普拉特纳(Graham Platner)并让他在一个非常特定的位置上扮演关键角色。但再说一次,这在你书中的边缘部分有所体现,但我很想听你把这个话题带到舞台的中心来,那就是——
Original English
Speaker A: >> found Graham Platner and cast him in a very particular position. But again, this operates on the the the edges of the book, but I'd be curious to hear you bring it to the the center of the stage, which is
Speaker B: 拥有这样一个既通过奇观景象做出内部决定,又——
Original English
Speaker B: >> what has it meant to have this uh administration that both makes internal decisions through spectacle?
Speaker A: 嗯哼。
Original English
Speaker A: >> Mhm.
Speaker B: 然后通过视觉判断和视觉行动的奇观来传达信息的政府,这究竟意味着什么?
Original English
Speaker B: >> And then communicates through spectacle that that judges visually and acts visually.
Speaker A: 这有时会变成一个自我强化的反馈循环,对吗?对吧。我的意思是,所以当你谈到海格塞斯时,我们在书里有一段写到了他如何,你知道,他变得非常沉迷于这些——这些关于船只遇袭的视频,并且,嗯,它们私下里会被描述为海格塞斯的,嗯,恐怖电影(snuff films),但是你知道,他会——他会——他会想把一些视频发给特朗普,因为他深知特朗普会想看它们。嗯,特朗普是一个注意力经济的绝对大师,这正是我在你谈论妈妈·唐尼(Mom Donnie)时所想到的。我认为注意力经济的一部分就是创造一个引人注目的视觉效果,获得一些能瞬间抓住人们眼球的东西。妈妈·唐尼在他的竞选活动中在这方面就极其出色。嗯,老实说,现在仍然如此。我的意思是,当我看着他的——
Original English
Speaker A: >> It becomes a self-reinforcing feedback loop sometimes, right? Right. I mean, so when you were talking about Hexath, we have a bit in the book about how he, you know, he got very into these these videos of the boat strikes and um they would be privately described as Hegsth's um snuff films, but you know, he would he would he would want to have some sent to Trump because he knew Trump would want to see them. Um, Trump is a master of the attention economy, which is what I was thinking about when you were talking about Mom Donnie. I think that that is part of the attention economy is creating a visual and is getting something that will grab people. Mom Donnie was exceptionally good at that in his campaign. Um, and still is honestly. I mean, when I look at his
社交媒体与现实回音壁
Speaker A: 社交媒体,就像当市长一样,实际上非常惊人的是,其中仍然有多少内容会出现在我的信息流中。即使我没有主动去寻找它,即使我没有在看他的东西。嗯,但这成为了一种告诉你自己的方式,即你对现实的看法就是正在发生的事情。所以,举个例子,嗯,我们在书里写到了一个场景,当时斯蒂芬·米勒(Steven Miller)走进来,那真的是一个重要的时刻。他走进椭圆形办公室,拿着这个来自 Doge(狗狗币/相关部门)的孩子的照片,这个孩子在网上的名字叫“大蛋蛋”(Big Balls)。大家就是这么称呼他的。他的真名叫埃德·什么(Ed something)。但是,嗯,他被打了,而斯蒂芬·米勒拿到的这些照片是从他妻子那里得到的,他妻子之前在 Doge 和马斯克(Musk)一起工作。这随后点燃了特朗普一直想做的一件事,那就是派遣国民警卫队进入华盛顿特区。嗯,这就变成了一种方式,这不仅仅是关于看到那些你知道能印证你观点的视觉画面。嗯,它基本上是说,你的世界里没有相互竞争的观点,一切都只是通过眼睛输入,这阻止了你以同样的方式思考。这是因为,部分原因是,我的意思是这是我现在的看法,我有点在揣摩他的心思,我尽量不这么做,因为这不是一件很有价值的事情,但是……
Original English
Speaker A: social media, just as mayor, it is actually quite striking how much of it still comes into my feed. even if I'm not looking for it, even if I'm not looking at his thing. Um, but it becomes a way to tell yourself that your view of reality is what's happening. So, for instance, um, we have a scene in the book where Steven Miller comes into, it was really an important moment. He comes into the Oval Office and he's got these pictures of this kid from Doge whose name online was Big Balls. That's what he was known as. And his actual name is Ed something. But um he um he had been beaten up and he's got these photos that Stephen Miller had gotten from his wife who had been working with Musk at Doge. That then fires up something that Trump's been wanting to do forever, which is send National Guard in to DC. Um it becomes a way of it isn't just about seeing visuals that you know reaffirm your point. Um, it is basically that your world is no competing viewpoints and that everything is just going in through the eyes and it stops you from thinking the same way. It's because part of I mean this is my opinion now I'm getting a little inside his head which I try not to do cuz it's not a very worthwhile endeavor but
Speaker B: 我确实认为,当人们以这种方式消费他们自己的内容时,如此大量的视觉内容消费就是关于你做出反应,你做出反应,所以这就只是一种持续的反应。而这就是他们试图用史蒂文·张(Steven Chung)在钓鱼挑衅时制作的那些视频所做的事情,你知道,他们把那位白宫通讯主管,比方说他是一个[哼声] UFC的超级粉丝,他们把这些打击的视频配上实际的电子游戏音乐[音乐]和动态……
Original English
Speaker B: I do think that when people are consuming their own content that way so much of consumption of visuals is is about you react you react and so it's just a constant reaction and that is what they try doing with these videos that um Steven Chung does when he's trolling you know they set the the White House communications director who was a [snorts] big UFC guy for instance, they set these videos of these strikes like to to like actual video game music [music] and dynamics
Speaker B: 或者,而且我认为这是书里一个非常吸引人的细节,配上那些将会提出抗议的艺术家的音乐。
Original English
Speaker B: or and I thought this was a fascinating detail in the book to the music of artists who are going to protest.
Speaker A: 正确。那是真的。他们会说:“你怎么敢这样使用我的音乐?” 然后对他们来说,这又是一个新的新闻周期。
Original English
Speaker A: Correct. That's true. going to say, "How dare you use my music in this way?" And then that's another news cycle for them.
Speaker B: 正确。
Original English
Speaker B: Correct.
Speaker A: 嗯,库什纳(Kushner)上次在白宫时经常告诉大家的一件事是,他会描述他所谓的“特朗普法则”。其中之一就是争议提升信息。因此,没有比这更快的途径了。但这也是一种表明“我不会遵守你们的规则”的方式。
Original English
Speaker A: Um, one of the things that Kushner used to tell people in the White House last time was that he would describe what he called Trump rules. And one of them was controversy elevates message. And so there's no quicker way to do that. But it's also a way to say, "I'm not going to follow your rules."
特朗普的人际互动与健康话题
Speaker B: 你对特朗普的 MDI 会面怎么看?
Original English
Speaker B: What did you make of the Trump MDI meetings?
Speaker A: 呃,我一点也不感到惊讶,而且非常严肃地说,事情完全如我所料地发展了。但是特朗普的,呃,他自己的团队有点,嗯,呃,感到震惊,因为,呃,他有多喜欢和 Momi 交谈,以及尽管共和党人都在试图谈论,你知道的,社会主义者或共产主义者,甚至特朗普在自己的演讲中也是这么做的,但他似乎对某个特定的人有一个真正的例外。而且我知道他最近攻击过他几次,Mom Donnie,但 Manny 是,嗯,他非常棒。我的意思是,显然在他们的第一次会面中,Monnie 提到了在他们自己的集会上的特朗普支持者之间的选民重叠。Money 一直非常聪明。
Original English
Speaker A: Uh, I was so not surprised and it went exactly as I thought it was going to in all seriousness. But Trump's uh own team is a little um uh jarred by uh how much he enjoys talking to momi and how as much as the Republicans are trying to talk about how, you know, socialists or communists and Trump is even doing that in his own speeches, but he seems to have a real carveout for one particular person. And I know he's attacked him a few times recently, Mom Donnie, but Manny is um he's very good. I mean, apparently in their first meeting, Monnie was referring to the crossover of voters that that were Trump voters at his own rallies. Money has been quite smart.
Speaker B: 特朗普和 Mom Donnie 的会面,呃,它们反映了我认为你书里最有趣的部分,
Original English
Speaker B: the Trump mom Donnie meetings uh they reflect what I thought was the funniest part of your book,
Speaker A: 那就是特朗普在和人们进行一对一会面时,往往会表现得极其安抚和友好,
Original English
Speaker A: which is Trump's tendency to be incredibly consiliatory and friendly when he meets one-on-one with people
Speaker B: 那些他一直在诽谤的人,那些他的政府可能完全在,
Original English
Speaker B: who he has been slandering, who his administration might be entirely
Speaker A: 迫害的人。但对于一个如此傲慢且好斗的人来说,他在一对一的时候却有点像只温顺的小猫。
Original English
Speaker A: persecuting. But for somebody who is so brash and aggressive, he's a bit of a pussycat one-on-one.
Speaker B: 嗯,他不喜欢一对一的人际关系,呃,直接的冲突。呃,这一直是他生活中的一个常态。嗯,有时他是故意这么做的,只是为了让对方措手不及。但对于 Manny,他似乎是真的喜欢他。所以不管这算什么,
Original English
Speaker B: Um, he does not like one-on-one interpersonal conf direct conflict. Uh, this has been a a constant in his life. Um, sometimes he does it intentionally just to sort of make the person be off guard. But with Manny, he seems to genuinely like him. So for whatever that's worth,
Speaker B: 你觉得特朗普随着年龄的增长改变了吗,或者年龄是否在以有意义的方式延缓他的脚步?
Original English
Speaker B: do you feel Trump is changed with age or the age is sowing him in meaningful ways?
Speaker A: 我的意思是,定义一下“有意义”。我,我,当我在电视上看他甚至 10 年前的样子时,我的意思是,我最近看了他在 2016 年共和党全国代表大会(RNC)上的演讲,相比之下,他现在的讲话流畅度是一个非常令人震惊的对比。嗯,他说话慢多了。嗯,他经常讲同样的故事。就像乔·罗根(Joe Rogan)会说的那样,他编织的故事网变得越来越宽了。这绝对是真的。我想说的是,乔纳森(Jonathan)和我今年 3 月 16 日在椭圆形办公室和他待了一个小时,为了这本书进行事实核查采访。我们没有注意到任何有意义的不同。嗯,我们确实注意到的是,他看起来就像史蒂夫·班农(Steve Bannon)描述的“纯粹的特朗普”。他就是把更多的焦点放在了报复上,把更多的焦点放在了他想要关注的事情上。嗯,对翻新项目非常痴迷。非常。而且,你知道,这是模型。现在是第 17 天。这是舞厅的模型,所以……在战争的第 17 天,这是我舞厅的模型等等,就是那样,他看起来好像对世界上的一切都漠不关心。但我不赞同这种关于痴呆症的讨论,我不认为特朗普是一个在本质上完全不同的人,我就是不这么认为,嗯,呃,但我认为他更做回他自己了,嗯,这通常是年龄增长的产物。
Original English
Speaker A: I mean define meaningful I I when I watch him on television from even 10 years ago, I mean I was watching his RNC address in 2016 recently and it's a a pretty jarring uh comparison to just how his words flow now. Um he speaks much slower. Um he's telling the same stories a lot. the weave is getting wide as Joe Rogan Rogan would say. That's definitely true. I will say that Jonathan and I spent an hour with him in the Oval Office on March 16th of this year for a fact check interview for the book. We didn't notice anything meaningfully different. Um what we did notice is that he seemed like what Steve Bannon describes as pure Trump. There was just much more focus on payback, much more focus on what he wants to be focused on. Um very obsessed with the renovation projects. Very. And and you know, here's the models. It's day 17. here's the models of the ballroom and so of the day 17 of the war here's my models of the ballroom and so forth that was it was like he didn't have a care in the world but I don't subscribe to this dementia conversation I don't think Trump is some fundamentally different human being I just don't um uh but I think he is much more himself um which is a product of age in general
Speaker B: 曾经有[清嗓子],也许更好的说法是,大约六八个月前在偏左翼的社交媒体上有一个帖子,讨论人们看到的各种奇怪的瘀伤。
Original English
Speaker B: there was [clears throat] a sense maybe the better way to put it is that there was a thread on practically lefty social media six eight months ago around the sort strange bruising people were seeing.
Speaker A: 哦,这很奇怪。我的意思是,是的,
Original English
Speaker A: Oh, it is weird. I mean, yes,
Speaker B: 比如脚踝肿胀,说明他病得挺重。
Original English
Speaker B: the sort of the ankle swelling that he was quite sick
Speaker A: 就身体健康而言。他患有慢性静脉功能不全综合征、疾病,不管叫什么,这意味着血液无法正常回流到他的心脏。所以,这不是一件好事。嗯,你知道,在 2018 年他的第一份体检报告中,他的钙化评分,我想是,133。这表明有一定程度的心脏病。从那以后,他们就没有再公布过钙化评分。嗯,他在 2020 年感染新冠病毒时病得很重,我们至今仍不知道当时的严重程度。我的意思是,我根据他在卸任后很久我们才得到的信息对此做了一些报道,但是你知道,我们不知道我们所不知道的事情,而且他的健康记录读起来好像有一部分是他自己写的。所以你知道他去沃尔特·里德(Walter Reed)医院的频率更高了,但他们发布的信息却更少了。嗯,他做了影像检查,我们甚至不知道检查的是什么。嗯,他不能告诉我们。他说他接受了 22 位专家的治疗。什么?22 位?我甚至不知道那会是什么情况。而且瘀伤的事情,给出的解释从来都说不通。一直说是握手,阿司匹林。我,可能是 80 岁的人皮肤比较薄,但我,他,他显然不是那种身体非常健康的典范,但我不知道这意味着什么。你知道,我所知道的,我通常知道它的含义是,嗯,选举 80 岁的人是有点冒险的,对吧?我的意思是,选举任何人不都是一种冒险吗。你不知道一个人的健康状况会如何,但你可以猜到当他们变老时情况会走向何方。
Original English
Speaker A: in terms of physical health. He has chronic venus insufficiency syndrome, disease, whatever it's called, that means that the blood is not going to his heart properly. So, that's not a good thing. Um, you know, on his first medical report in 2018, he had a calcium score of, I think, 133. That suggests some level of heart disease. They have not put out a calcium score since. Um he was very sick with COVID in 2020 and we still don't know the extent of that. I mean I reported some on that from information we got well after he was out of office but you know we don't we don't know what we don't know and his health notes read as if he's written part of them. So you know he goes to Walter Reed with more frequency and they release less information. Um he got imaging we don't even know what they were. Um he can't tell us. He says he was treated by 22 specialists. What? 22? I don't even know that could be. And the the bruising thing, the explanation has never made sense. It's always been hand shaking, aspirin. I it could be that 80-year-olds have thinner skin, but I he's he's clearly not the the picture of great physical health, but I don't know what that means. You know, what I know what I generally know what it means is that um electing 80-year-olds is a bit of a gamble, right? I mean, electing anybody isn't a gamble. You don't know how somebody's health is going to be, but you can guess where it's going when they're older.
特朗普与他的“遗产”
Speaker B: 他现在究竟有多少时间花在翻新项目上?
Original English
Speaker B: How much of his time actually goes into the renovation now?
Speaker A: 非常多。如果你看一下他的心智份额图表,像这样,我会说,关于进入他的内心世界,嗯,大概有 70% 都在他的翻新项目上。这,这,这是关于政治遗产(legacy)的事情,但这,这,这,我总是认为他对遗产的看法与我们通常使用“遗产”这个词的方式不同。这,这,嗯,这不是“我给世界留下了什么”。而是“我留下了什么,以至于世界不能把我踢出这个世界,或者不能让我失去平台,或者不能把我的名字从曼哈顿的建筑物上抹去,或者不能夺走我在布朗克斯区租借的高尔夫球场”,你知道吗,“或者不能取消我的银行账户?” 这是“我能做些什么不被夺走的事情?”
Original English
Speaker A: A lot. if you looked at like like a chart of his mind share like this I will say about getting into his mind um like 70% of it would be on his renovations. It's it's it's a legacy thing but it's it's it's I always think of legacy with him different than the way we usually use the word legacy. It's it's um it's not what am I leaving behind for the world. It's what am I leaving behind so the world can't kick me off the world or deplatform me or take my name off buildings in Manhattan or take away my Bronx leased golf course, you know, or debank me? It's what can I do that cannot be taken away?
Speaker B: 是的。我该如何为自己建造纪念碑?
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah. How can I create monuments to myself?
Speaker A: 正确。我的意思是字面上的意思,我是说他实际上是这么说的,当哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS)的艾德·奥基夫(Ed O'Keefe)问他时,他注意到了这个拱门,嗯,他称之为“特朗普之拱”,嗯,在坚毅桌(Resolute desk)上的设计,他问道,或者在办公桌上,我不知道那是不是坚毅桌,我想那时已经换回来了,艾德说那是什么,特朗普就说:“这是一个拱门”。
Original English
Speaker A: Correct. I mean literally I mean he literally said that when Ed O'Keefe from CBS asked him he noticed the arch um which he's calling the arc to Trump um design on the Resolute desk and he asked or on the desk I don't know if it was the Resolute I think it was back by then Ed said what is that and Trump's like it's an arch
Speaker B: 谢谢大家,你们走这边,谢谢你们。
Original English
Speaker B: thank you all you come this way thank you
Speaker A: 给谁的?
Original English
Speaker A: for who?
Speaker B: 谢谢大家。
Original English
Speaker B: Thanks guys.
Speaker A: 是的,我知道它在哪里,但它是给谁的?
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah know I know where it is but who's it for?
Speaker B: 谢谢你们。
Original English
Speaker B: Thank you guys.
Speaker A: 而且他在这个问题上非常,非常明确。没有进一步的对话了。嗯,肯尼迪中心,嗯,舞厅,嗯,你知道,我的意思是,我可以说个没完,但这全都是纪念碑。
Original English
Speaker A: And he was quite quite clear about it. There was no further conversation. Um the Kennedy Center, um the ballroom, um you know, I mean, I can go on and on, but it is all monuments.
Speaker B: 你能讲讲马克龙(Mcronone)和拱门的故事吗?
Original English
Speaker B: Can you tell the Mcronone story with the arch?
Speaker A: 我可能会把这个说得有点乱,但是他在一个,在一个会议上,他,嗯,他打电话,所以,他当时的其中一件事是……
Original English
Speaker A: Going to f this up a little bit, but he in a in a meeting he um he calls So, one of the things he was
建筑翻修与政治遗产
Interviewer: ……在琢磨,比如,拱门顶上该放点什么?比如,他是不是该放一个金色版本的,像他在巴特勒(Butler)高呼“战斗,战斗(fight, fight)”时举起的拳头的雕像?可是他居然在开另一个会开到一半时给马克龙(Macron)打电话,开始问他关于法国凯旋门(Arc de Triomphe)的事,比如那里面是什么样的?有多少……里面有游客服务台吗?有没有人从上面跳下来过?我是说,这才是他真正感兴趣的对话,而且他现在还在谈论这类事情。但他打电话给一位外国领导人,就为了打听为他自己建的拱门应该长什么样。说到“政治遗产”的另一面,也就是我们探讨“政治遗产”更传统的方式:在政治上,他还有没有什么仍想实现的目标?
Original English
Interviewer: ...musing about, like, what should go on top of the arch? And it was like, should he put a gold version like the 'fight, fight' fist from Butler up there? But he calls Macron in the middle of another meeting and starts asking him about the Arc de Triomphe in France, and you know, what's it like and how many... does it have a visitor's desk? Do people jump off of it? I mean, this was the conversation that he was interested in, and he's still talking about this kind of thing. But calls up a foreign leader to inquire about what his arch to himself should look like. Speaking of the other side of legacy, the more traditional way we would talk about legacy, does he have things he still wants to achieve politically?
Maggie Haberman: 这是一个非常好的问题。如果在2019年和2020年,我可以非常明确地回答:那时他确实还有想实现的目标。如果说他现在还有什么想实现的目标,除了他所谓的“不想成为赫伯特·胡佛(Herbert Hoover)”——也就是不想带着一场巨大的全球危机下台——之外,其实并没有了。我的意思是,你看,就像你说的,他重新挑起了他的贸易战。我想他可能想实现从伊朗脱身。我想他可能想找到办法,结束那场由他自己挑起的战争。但那不算什么成就,那只是对他自己行为的一种反应,就像我们这期节目一开始谈到的那样。他身边有一些人希望能看到某种形式的全面移民改革。至于你关于立法的疑问,有人说“这是我们可以和民主党人合作的事情”。天哪,我真的很难想象民主党人会愿意通过这种方式给他带来某种政治胜利,尤其考虑到这很可能会是一项让他们感到难以接受的法案——就像之前几乎所有涉及他的、与移民相关的法案一样。
Original English
Maggie Haberman: It's a really good question. I could answer that pretty clearly in 2019 and 2020, there were things that he still wanted to achieve. If there are things that he wants to achieve beyond just sort of not being Herbert Hoover, as he would say, meaning with a giant global crisis—not really. I mean, look, he's resumed his trade war, as you said. I think he'd like to achieve getting out of Iran. I think he would like to figure out an end to the war that he started. But that's not an achievement. That's a reaction to his own behavior, as we started this episode with. There are people around him who would like to see some form of comprehensive immigration reform. To your question about legislation, that's something that we can work with Democrats on. Boy do I have a hard time seeing Democrats wanting to give him some kind of a political win that way, especially when it would be, I suspect, a bill they would find less than palatable, as they have almost every single other bill involving anything related to immigration with him.
Interviewer: 也许换个问法,有没有哪些具体的政策议题,能像翻修建筑那样吸引他的注意力?
Original English
Interviewer: Maybe another way of asking this is, are there actual policy issues his mind is gravitating towards in the way it does towards the renovation?
Maggie Haberman: 不,我知道你在问什么。我的意思是,答案是没有。
Original English
Maggie Haberman: No, I know what you're asking. I mean the answer is no.
Interviewer: 对,是的。
Original English
Interviewer: Right. Yeah.
Maggie Haberman: 我的意思是,情况可能会变。他们可能在进行一些我们不知道的对话。但至少在我们听到的消息里肯定没有。我的意思是,如果说有什么的话,他在过去一年半里最关注的头号、二号和三号议题就是“报复”。也就是他在各个行业和公民社会各层面发起的这些霸凌行动,而且他在一段时间内还挺成功的。那些律师事务所赢了,法院最终也制裁了他,但在媒体方面——我想说,就他对媒体的攻击而言,他做得相当不错。不是通过政府手段,而是通过诉讼。但建筑翻修确实占据了很大一部分。我的意思是,他在这类项目上投入的精力是极其庞大的。这一次,他对国内政治的兴趣和反应明显少得多。我们在2024年开始看到的一件事是——在书中我们也探讨了这一点,这与一种神秘主义特质有关。他把自己看得非常伟大,我认为人们真的无法理解那种程度。当我们和他坐在一起时,这一点非常明显,我们在书的后记里也写到了这一点。他是在为大写的“历史”、为成为历史伟人而战,为了让人只用一个名字就记住他,为了在这个世界上留下印记,这与一位典型的总统截然不同。或者用他的话来说,不需要像一个“普通总统”那样,做那些试图通过一项法案的无聊工作,不需要做去艾奥瓦州谈论某某事宜的无聊工作——尽管他现在在艾奥瓦州的支持率也不怎么样了。我是说,这些事情从根本上来说对他缺乏吸引力。他对移民问题很感兴趣。我认为如果他能找到某种方法,进一步改变移民体系并将此归功于自己,他会去做的。如果那不需要通过立法的话,他可能最终还是会尝试在立法层面做点什么,这完全不会让我感到惊讶。我只是觉得这走不远。但是,[哼笑]谁知道呢?我愿意拭目以待。但是,不,他们根本没有余力去考虑“我们要如何规划某某政策”。他们在政治上已经陷入了一种生存模式,其程度我甚至难以用语言来形容。
Original English
Maggie Haberman: I mean I would give—I mean that could change. They could be having conversations we're not aware of. But certainly not in anything that we have heard. I mean if anything, what he spent the last year and a half focused on, you know, as issues top one, two, and three were retribution, were these bullying campaigns across various industries and aspects of civil society where he was pretty successful for a time. The law firms won, the courts caught up with him, but media—he's done pretty well I would say in terms of his attacks on the media. Not through the government levers, but through lawsuits. But renovations is really a huge part of it. I mean, the degree of mind share on these projects is vast. He is vastly less interested in and reactive to domestic politics this time, just beyond... And one of the things that we started seeing in 2024—and we get into this, this relates to in the book, it relates to the mystical quality. He sees himself as big on a level that I think people really don't understand, and there it was quite clear when we were sitting with him—and we write about that in the epilogue of the book—but he is playing for history, capital G, great man of history, to be remembered by one name, to have left a mark on the world that is just different than a typical president, or what he would say is a normal president, that doesn't involve the boring work of trying to pass a bill, that doesn't involve the boring work of going to Iowa to talk about XYZ, although his numbers are not great in Iowa now either. I mean, this is fundamentally less interesting to him. Immigration, very interesting to him. I think that if he could find some way to even further change the immigration system and claim credit for that, he would. If that did not involve legislation, he may still end up trying to do something legislatively. It wouldn't surprise me at all. I just don't see it going very far. But, [snorts] but who knows? I'm willing to be surprised. But no, there is not room in the tank for "here is how we are going to map out XYZ". They are in survival mode politically to a degree that I kind of can't express.
好书推荐
Interviewer: 我想这很适合作为结尾。按照惯例,最后一个问题:您有什么书想向观众推荐的吗?
Original English
Interviewer: I think that's a good place to end. Always a final question. What are a few books you recommend to the audience?
Maggie Haberman: 好的。我正在读查理·萨维奇(Charlie Savage)的《接管:帝王式总统的回归》(Takeover: The Return of the Imperial Presidency),这本书非常出色地回顾了在9·11事件后,尤其是迪克·切尼(Dick Cheney)是如何在小布什(W. Bush)手下扩张行政权力的。我还在读比尔·伯顿(Bill Burton)的《陌生人》(Strangers),因为如果有一本书随处可见,我就会觉得自己有必要去了解一下……
Original English
Maggie Haberman: Okay. So, I'm reading Charlie Savage's Takeover: The Return of the Imperial Presidency, which was a very, very good look at how particularly Dick Cheney expanded executive power under W. Bush post 9/11. I am reading Bill Burton's Strangers because a book that is everywhere I sort of feel compelled to have some sense of...
Interviewer: 我还没读过这本书。好看吗?
Original English
Interviewer: I haven't read it yet. Is it good?
Maggie Haberman: 挺有意思的。写得很好,绝对引人入胜。在这个时候选择写这么富有的人群,是一个有趣的选择。读起来有点难受,因为有很多人在经历离婚时,并没有他们那么丰厚的资源。然后是基思·麦克纳利(Keith McNally)的《我后悔一切》(I Regret Everything)。
Original English
Maggie Haberman: It's interesting. It's well written. It's definitely propulsive. It's an interesting choice to write about such wealth in this moment. That was a little hard to get through because there are many people who go through divorces who don't quite have the same resources. And then Keith McNally's I Regret Everything.
Interviewer: 哦,那本书很有趣。
Original English
Interviewer: Oh, that book has been fun.
Maggie Haberman: 其实非常棒。是的,但我因为要看新闻以及其他原因,不得不先把它放一放。所以……
Original English
Maggie Haberman: It's actually fantastic. So, yeah, but I've had to cycle out of that one for news and for other reasons. So...
Interviewer: 玛吉·哈伯曼(Maggie Haberman),非常感谢你。
Original English
Interviewer: Maggie Haberman, thank you very much.
Maggie Haberman: 好的。感谢邀请我。
Original English
Maggie Haberman: That's right. Thanks for having me.