万斯的政治前途与2028年总统之路

Speaker 0: (The present Trump is giving around three to five days to unify behind a ceasefire counteroffer.) Speaker 1: 一九八四年出生的 JD Vance 今年才四十二岁。在华盛顿这个充满银发灰发或者是头发很少的政治家的权力场当中，Vance 的年轻既是资本，也是双刃剑。尽管政坛变量重生，他目前依然被广泛视为 2028 年最有可能从特朗普手中接过“让美国再次伟大”旗帜的继承人。如果这个预言成真，届时四十四岁的他将跻身美国历史上年轻总统之列，而且是共和党当中，除了二战后最年轻的几位总统（都是民主党人：肯尼迪 43 岁，克林顿 46 岁，奥巴马 47 岁）之外，又一位年轻的总统。 Speaker 2: (Vice President JD Vance is reportedly on hold, while the White House waits for Iran to accept its terms or strikes will resume.) Speaker 1: 这段如同超新星爆发一般的崛起历程当中，Vance 眼下正遭遇着最严峻的挑战，前路崎岖，困难重重。一个接一个的障碍出现在他通往美国最高权力的阶梯上，他需要克服以后才能从特朗普的学徒晋升为特朗普的替代。 Speaker 3: (The president is in the Oval Office to preside. The Vice President will be here at the White House, too, for some policy meetings.) Speaker 1: 作为副总统，Vance 身负重任，随时准备着率领代表团前往巴基斯坦的伊斯兰堡重启美伊和平谈判。随行的是特朗普信赖的外交特使：房地产大亨 Steve Witkoff 和总统女婿 Jared Kushner。未来一段时间，打打停停、边打边谈可能成为美国伊朗战争的常态。Vance 牵头这次谈判，背后隐藏着的是对等外交的考量，由美国副总统直接面对伊朗方面的议长。这是自 1979 年伊斯兰革命切断美国伊朗外交纽带以来，双方层级最高、最直接的接触。在过去不打仗的几十年里头，双方最高级别的沟通仅仅是限于国务卿对伊朗外交部长的多方交流，在国际会议的走廊里头发生。反讽的是，当战火在波斯湾燃起，沟通层级反而上升到了副国级。中国拥有明确的正副国级行政序列，而美国行政部门的权力结构极其精简，顶端是正国级。特朗普旗下唯一的副国级是 Vance，国会领袖或者是最高法院大法官。虽然地位相当，但是他们依据宪法的分权，并不会深度介入外交实务，这个领域完全由行政部门主宰。 Speaker 3: (He was supposed to be going to Pakistan to negotiate with the Iranians, but at this point, we don't know if that's still going to happen or not.) Speaker 1: 对 Vance 而言，这场谈判的政治成本比较高。在战前特朗普的核心团队当中，Vance 的反对声音曾经是最响亮的，他一直坚持“美国优先”的战略，对再次卷入地区冲突兴趣不高。然而，一旦特朗普做出了最终决定，作为他的副手，他必须在公开场合成为这个决策最坚定的捍卫者，由踩刹车变成踩油门。有说法称，正是因为 Vance 长期反对美国对外干预的立场，才导致伊朗官员专门要求他来参加和谈。Vance 对此予以否认，他说从来没有意识到这类要求的存在。与此同时，作为未来政治运动的旗手，Vance 没有办法忽视自己内部在伊朗战争议题上的裂痕。 Speaker 1: 2026 年 4 月，在佐治亚州的一次右翼群体集会上，Vance 承认了伊朗问题上一直存在分歧。民调虽然显示共和党基本盘多数支持战争，反对的人是少数，而且反对的原因非常多样化。比如有些人对特朗普绕过国会不满；有些人跟 Vance 来自的家庭比较相似，就是俄亥俄州的工薪阶层选民，他们对油价飙升不满，也认为特朗普应该更加专注于美国国内事务。还有些来自反干预主义者，比如拥有巨大听众群体的播客节目主持人，如 Joe Rogan，以及“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）圈子里头的播客节目主持 Tucker Carlson、Candace Owens 和前国会议员 Marjorie Taylor Greene，他们占据着一个不大但声音响亮的角落。他们认为所谓的爱泼斯坦阶层，也就是和爱泼斯坦有各种瓜葛的精英阶层，成功拉拢甚至腐蚀了特朗普，导致特朗普屈服于这个爱泼斯坦阶层。另外，还要加上以色列的意志，也会对他们有影响。所以，未来的旗手 Vance，他需要直接面对特朗普目前承受的各种攻击。但是特朗普对追随者具备特殊的吸引力，对局面具有特殊的掌控力。Vance 没有办法直接继承这些，他必须在磨练当中自己去获得。 Speaker 4: (Vice President JD Vance, now warning the Pope. Be careful what Advance was talking about as President Trump lashes out against Pope Leo. And tonight on the Hill, the leading Republican in the Senate now saying the focus should be on the economy, gas prices, and not going after the Pope.) Speaker 1: Vance 还有一个特殊之处，他也是美国级别最高的天主教徒。特朗普刚刚和天主教宗教领袖 Pope Leo X 产生了不同意见的对立。教皇与美国总统之间有公开的不同意见是比较罕见的。但当代史上也发生过：在美国保守派人士中深受欢迎的 Pope John Paul II，2003 年就明确反对过伊拉克战争，当时是共和党总统 George W. Bush 的任期。在那时，可以保持沉默，等待风波平静。再说现在，可以就是为平民的生命财产安全祈祷，这就足够了。 Speaker 5: (Tonight, the backlash after Vance, President JD Vance told Pope Leo, the spiritual leader of the world's 1.4 billion Catholics, he needs to be careful when talking about matters of theology.) Speaker 1: Vance 也可以选择像之前美国政坛的天主教政治人物，比如 Kennedy 总统或纽约州长 Cuomo，他们的说法往往是：信仰对他们个人而言非常重要，但在公共生活中，他们是美国人，必须按照美国宪法行事。无论是管理国家还是管理自己的州，就是说“将灵魂放在教堂，将决策放在会议室，两者互不干扰”。Vance 这次的说法比较超前，他暗示说，教皇或许并没有显示出高度的神学素养。 Speaker 0: (It's important, in the same way that it's important for the Vice President of the United States to be careful when I talk about matters of public policy. I think it's very, very important for the Pope to be careful when he talks about matters of theology.) Speaker 1: 教皇在声明中说：“任何基督，也就是和平的门徒，永远不会站在那些过去曾挥舞刀剑、现在投下炸弹的人一边。” Vance 反驳说：“那二战该怎么解释呢？那个时候上帝难道不在美国这一边吗？” Speaker 5: (J.S. declaring on PM's way.) Speaker 1: 一般来说，天主教徒相信当教皇就信仰教义、道德问题发表言论时，首先给予的是尊重。所以天主教徒站出来挑战教皇关于战争与和平的声明，肯定不是一个轻松的决定。Vance 不仅愿意在梵蒂冈冒险，他也愿意在美国冒险，毕竟天主教徒占据美国五分之一的人口。Vance 的收获是什么呢？他显示了对特朗普的高度忠诚，哪怕因此离天堂稍微远了一点点。Vance 对特朗普的忠诚度决定了他政治根基的深厚程度。所以，不管战前的态度如何，他现在必须成为伊朗战争的首席辩护者，别无选择，政治处境敏感。 Speaker 1: 根据三月份保守派政治行动会议（CPAC）模拟民调，Vance 作为特朗普在 MAGA 运动中继承人的地位正在下滑。Marco Rubio 的支持率从去年的 3% 飙升至 35%。Vance 虽然仍然保持领先，但支持率从去年的 60% 下降到了 50%。 Speaker 0: (Silent, we are about five, five Hungarian patriots, and I think they love you even more than they love Viktor Orbán.) Speaker 6: (Well, I can't believe that, I can't believe that because...) Speaker 7: (... Vance's unsuccessful trip, and the Hungarian election in April. He went to cheer on Viktor Orbán, but it didn't turn the tide. Before leaving, Vance told reporters at the airport that the Hungarian people were very friendly to him. In the eyes of American liberals, Orbán represents a kind of self-serving Trumpism, always favored by Trump's core intellectual group. His failure in the election might cause some unease among MAGA supporters. Orbán has led Hungary for sixteen years, and Vance himself has said that some of his practices should serve as useful lessons and references for American conservatives. Many therefore see Hungary as a significant setback for Trump or Vance, but I don't think it's a major issue. Hungary, after all, has only 9.6 million people, similar to New Jersey, and its area is comparable to Indiana. For the American public, MAGA folks might see Hungary similarly to how liberals see it. These places do not have the same scale or operational equivalence to the US; they are like distant mirrors with little reference value for the US governance model. Therefore, Vance's experience in Hungary was perhaps not very presentable, but it didn't require much substantive cost.) Speaker 6: (kind of people, how did it end?) Speaker 1: 匈牙利之行以后，Vance 就去了伊斯兰堡。核心议题是伊朗坚持自己拥有浓缩铀的权利。Vance 认为实际上，双方在这个关键点上是有可能达成协议的。他打个比方说：“我妻子有从万米高空的飞机上跳伞的权利，但是我们达成了一项协议：为了不让我担心，她并不会从飞机上真的去跳伞。” Vance 这个比喻的意思是，伊朗可以声称自己拥有提炼铀的权利，但是为了达成双方都能接受的协议，他们可以选择不去行使这个权利。Vance 将“拥有权利”和“行使权利”切割开；权利可以在纸面上保留，行为则在现实中收回，这样双方达成协议才有空间。他的论辩在耶鲁法学院可以拿高分，但是挑战不在于 Vance 能否把问题说清楚，而在于伊朗的毛拉们愿不愿意按 Vance 的方式来理解这个问题。 Speaker 0: (One thing I've learned just working with him every day is he doesn't have an off switch. Like sometimes the President will call you at twelve, thirty or two in the morning, and they will call you at six in the morning about a totally different topic. President, did you go to sleep? What's going on here?) Speaker 1: 在美国国内政治上，Vance 为 2028 年的布局已经开始了。我给大家介绍一个他身边的主要助手——35 岁的 Jacob Richman（Jackie Races），他是 Vance 最信任的人之一。通过他，我们可能可以看到 Vance 迎接 2028 年的优势与面临的挑战。2026 年 1 月，Jacob Richman 在我生活的华盛顿郊区马里兰州的一家犹太教堂举行了婚礼，Vance 出席并朗读了犹太祈祷文，祝福了这位新人夫妻（双方都是犹太人）。在特朗普政府之外，很少有人知道 Jacob Richman，但实际上他已成为华盛顿最有影响力的共和党操盘手之一。他是 Vance 的副总统办公室主任，保守的民族主义者，新右翼的年轻领袖，希望将共和党重塑为一个更具民粹色彩的政党。Jacob 在打理 Vance 日常行政事务运作的同时，也是他在国内政治事务中最重要的顾问，相当于尼克松身边的 Kissinger。 Speaker 6: (Kissinger, of course, was also Jewish.) Speaker 1: Jacob 极为低调，与自己老板 Vance 经常在社交媒体上公开抨击政敌、为特朗普政策积极辩护不同，Jacob 将自己的 X 账号设为私密。在 X 上，他经常点赞和转发拥护“基督教民族主义”（Christian Nationalism）运动的内容。这个思潮近年来统治了共和党。2025 年 9 月，Jacob 转发了一段言论：“为了拯救这个赋予我们如此多福祉的仁慈国家，我们犹太人不能够再对多数派援引基督教神秘的言论感到不适或反感了。阉割基督教对我们所有人来说都是灾难性的，必须终结。” 这段话中涉及了好几个概念：“仁慈国家”（nation of kindness，指美国），“基督教神秘”（Christian Gene-gression - likely a transcription error, possibly 'Christianity' or 'Christian exceptionalism'），“基督教”（Christianity）。这段话体现了 Jacob 这类新右翼犹太精英的复杂心理。长期以来，美国犹太人中倾向自由派的占 70% 左右，保守派只有 30%。所以像 Jacob 这样的，是少数派。但他们现在提倡的就是拥抱十字架，阻止自由派通过“觉醒主义”等手段阉割基督教和犹太价值观。Jacob 的案例极为有趣，它展现了一个拥有顶尖学历、最初被 Vance 的经济民粹主义吸引的年轻犹太共和党人如何成为基督教沙文主义支持者的历程。其原因在于，即使不公开宣扬反犹主义，默认状态下，（某些思潮）对反犹也基本持容忍态度。而 Jacob 就是犹太人，这有点像是素食主义者为了对抗他更讨厌的饮食趋势，决定加入牛排爱好者的俱乐部，并且负责切割生肉。Jacob 也是目前共和党领导层的典型代表：他们出身精英，但反精英（anti-elite elite），之所以如此，是因为他们深受“自由派正在摧毁美国”这种理念的困扰。 Speaker 1: 2016 年，Vance 写出《乡下的悲歌》，迅速赢得了名声。自那以后，Jacob 一直是他的忠实追随者。在 Jacob 自己快速攀升的过程中，他曾与播客主持人 Tucker Carlson、特朗普核心团队的白宫办公厅副主任 Stephen Miller 和白宫预算与管理办公室主任 Russell Vought，以及来自密苏里州的参议员 Josh Hawley 共事。这几位是 MAGA 思想层面的重要支点。为了 Vance 建立后特朗普时代的共和党意识形态框架，Jacob 一定会扮演关键角色。他的走向很大程度上预示着 Vance 的走向。Vance 到哪，哪儿基本都会带着他。他也习惯保持在镜头以外，但同时离 Vance 距离非常近。Jacob 个头不高，大约 1.62 米。Jacob 成长在新泽西州的民主党家庭，早在高中就参与政治，曾到民主党人 Hillary Clinton 和 John Kerry 两参议员办公室实习。2009 年，他普林斯顿大学毕业后经历了政治转型。报道时他还是注册民主党人，但遇到了有“右翼造王者”称号的 Robert George 教授后，立刻改变了。 Speaker 0: (All the questions that I've addressed in my scholarship, and more than political philosophy and philosophy of law. The most prominent ones have been those having to do with life and death.) Speaker 1: 政治系教授 Robert George 曾指导过的学生包括 Ted Cruz，他后来成为代表德克萨斯的联邦参议员，也参选过总统。Robert George 教授的学生中还有犹太人 Yoram Hazony，他后来成为“基督教民族主义”（Christian Nationalism）最杰出的犹太辩护者。Jacob 主修公共政策，他在毕业论文中感谢了 Robert George 教授，说他的学术和道德指导对自己产生了深远影响，感恩无以言表。 Speaker 1: 大学一年级结束以后，Jacob 在 Tucker Carlson 创办的 Daily Caller 实习。他在校园里以严肃的共和党身份担任过学校共和党协会主席，曾为 2012 年共和党总统候选人 Romney 助选。Jacob 还担任学校保守派刊物《普林斯顿托里》（The Princeton Tory）的执行编辑，也是新校报《普林斯顿人》（The Princetonian）的多产专栏作家。他抨击身份政治，支持 2009 年奥巴马担任总统后兴起的民粹风格的茶党运动，警告奥巴马时代盛行的自由派极端主义。他与亲巴勒斯坦学生发起的抵制以色列的运动总是针锋相对。看看他本科时的样子，他未来完全可能成为白宫办公厅主任。 Speaker 8: (I think it's really important to acknowledge that...) Speaker 1: Just to summarize, Jacob, after finishing his third year, interned at the Senate Budget Committee in the summer of 2012. Stephen Miller was working there; he was only six years older than Jacob and was emerging in politics with a radical anti-immigrant persona. Jacob's performance at the Senate Budget Committee was highly praised. He discovered that the Obama administration's Department of Agriculture was using soap opera programs in Spanish to teach people how to use food stamps, suggesting encouragement of illegal immigration abuse. Stephen Miller later cited Jacob's case in his 2015 book. The two in politics were almost like Jewish brothers. Stephen Miller, now Deputy Chief of Staff at the White House, enjoys Trump's high trust and is basically always by his side. Miller also attended Jacob's wedding in January. Shortly after graduating from university, in February 2014, Jacob joined the conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation. Its main work was to challenge the Republican establishment, shake up the Republican power structure, and then reorganize it. Young Jacob was responsible for strategy development, writing articles, including creating a scorecard for Republican presidential candidates in the 2016 election. His office at The Heritage Foundation was just steps away from Russell Vought, who later became the main architect of the "Project 2025" and currently serves as the Director of the White House Office of Management and Budget. The two have a very close relationship, constantly thinking together about how to dismantle the Republican establishment leadership. Ideologically, Jacob helped develop the vision of a new populism ("right to be public"), which is not just about cutting government spending and lowering taxes, but also believing the government can be a force for good. The Republican Party should break free from its obsession with wealthy donors and cannot rely entirely on the free market. He began to be skeptical of Trump's rise in 2016, but quickly saw Trump's strong appeal to grassroots Republican voters. In June 2016, Vance's memoir "Hillbilly Elegy" was published and caused a sensation. His depiction of the struggles of low-income communities in the Appalachian Mountains and the adjacent Rust Belt resonated deeply with Jacob. He knew Vance had accurately captured the resentment of white voters in America's heartland and realized the book could help the Republican Party gain support from a considerable portion of the population. These people are culturally conservative, suspicious of authority, and economically vulnerable. Jacob met Vance at a speaking event and a friendship developed. Over a year later, he joined Vance's team, becoming his strategist and introducing Vance to influential figures in Washington's conservative circles. When Vance toured think tanks, wrote for The New York Times, and appeared as a commentator on CNN, Jacob provided substantive content support for Vance's views. Jacob played a crucial role in Vance's early reputation building. He is extremely loyal and always ready to stand up for his boss. In 2018, Jacob left The Heritage Foundation to become a senior advisor to Senator Josh Hawley, a young senator who sees himself as a reformer within the Republican Party. In the fall of 2020, before Trump's election defeat, Jacob entered Stanford Law School, his current boss Josh Hawley's alma mater. However, Josh Hawley faced widespread disdain from liberal students and faculty at Stanford, and Jacob was also somewhat unwelcome. During the January 6th Capitol riot in 2021, a classmate messaged Jacob to mock him because Josh Hawley was photographed raising his fist in solidarity with the protesters. Jacob's journey at Stanford Law School involved another evolution: he became more critical of abortion, was shocked by minors undergoing gender reassignment surgery, and was extremely opposed to the COVID-19 restrictions, believing the US public health sector was rotten to the core. On Twitter, he published views tending to believe liberals were leading America to ruin. Speaker 0: (Twenty years ago, I enlisted in the Marines. That same year, Tim Ryan went to Washington. I've never run for office before. Tim Ryan had run thirteen times.) Speaker 1: In the 2022 midterm elections, Vance ran for Senate in his home state of Ohio. He transformed from a critic of "Hillbilly Elegy" upon its publication to a supporter of Trump. On the primary night of May 3, 2022, Jacob flew to Cincinnati, Ohio, to cheer Vance on. Not many favored Vance at the time, but Jacob believed Vance would not only win the seat but also represented the future face of American leadership. After Vance won the general election that November, he immediately chose Jacob as his Senate Chief of Staff. To work in Washington, Jacob transferred the remaining courses of Stanford Law School to Georgetown University in Washington. He worked for Vance while completing his law degree. Speaker 0: (J.D. Vance, right? They censor, but it doesn't change the truth. Joe Biden's open border is killing Ohio, bringing in more illegal drugs and more Democrat voters pouring into this country.) Speaker 1: During Vance's brief tenure in the Senate, less than two years, he opposed large-scale, unconditional aid to Ukraine, with Jacob helping to draft related commentary. Vance also crossed party lines, cooperating with Democratic senators on bipartisan bills targeting bank executives, corporate mergers, and credit card monopolies. These actions showed Vance's image as an unconventional Republican. A year and a half later, in the 2024 election, he attracted Trump's attention as a potential Vice Presidential running mate. Jacob naturally advanced from Senate Chief of Staff to Deputy Chief of Staff. Since late 2022, Jacob has served as Vance's Chief of Staff for over three years, and his aversion to liberal elites has continuously grown. On October 7, 2023, after Hamas attacked Israel, Jacob tweeted: "This week marks a critical moment for many institutions in American society that have been eroded by decadence over the past decade, catering to the whims of America's worst people. America must either turn back from this self-hatred or it will be completely finished." Jacob frankly stated that among America's worst people are some Ivy League professors who have turned elite universities into factories producing America's worst. The far-left media platform MSNBC has become a propaganda organ for Hamas. Speaker 0: (Nick. Thank you for doing this. Yeah. Thank you for every... wanted to meet.) Speaker 9: (The interview, which lasted over two hours, was posted late last month and has been seen over twenty million times. The conservative commentator Tucker Carlson's son interviewing Nick Fuentes, a twenty-seven-year-old hard-right influencer with millions of followers known as... Grempers.) Speaker 1: At this juncture, from within the conservative ranks, Jacob's strong defense of Israel soon clashed with the growing antisemitic sentiment within the MAGA movement. Tucker Carlson interviewed the antisemitic figure Nick Fuentes in October 2025. Vance publicly criticized Fuentes but did not directly condemn the interview itself. Vance emphasized that America is, of course, always a Christian nation, and he knows he needs to maintain the following of Christian nationalists. Tucker Carlson's son, Buckley Carlson, worked in Vance's office as Deputy Press Secretary. In mid-April, as Tucker Carlson's conflict with Trump became more public, his son left Vance's side. Vance's team's personnel changes also show everyone is preparing for 2028. In the last two months, three of his senior aides left to join high-paying lobbying firms. They help build and expand Vance's network in Washington, including influencing policy direction and fundraising. Vance has only been in Washington for a little over three years; his connections and political network in the capital are still relatively nascent. Most of his core team are young, unlike Jacob. Speaker 0: (I don't like thinking about it, because I like thinking about the job I have right now.) Speaker 1: A competitive presidential candidate needs a circle comprising government staff, home-state teams, and Washington political operatives, including campaign strategists, pollsters, and the ability to secure support from financiers and business magnates. Speaker 0: (I'm sure to keep on working hard. I think this is the most important job I ever had. It's maybe the most important job I'll ever have, outside of being a father to my three beautiful kids.) Speaker 1: So, Vance's thoughts before entering the White House were primarily about America's place in world affairs – its proper positioning, leaning towards isolationism and opposing aggressive intervention. From a domestic policy perspective, he wants the Republican Party to be closer to the working class, raise tariffs, and implement industrial policies to protect manufacturing workers. He also advocates for more regulation of large corporations, breaking up large tech companies, and accelerating antitrust enforcement. He hopes to increase America's birth rate by expanding the child tax credit to $5,000 per child. These proposals are not very prominent in the current Trump administration's agenda. From the current division of labor, fiscal policy is led by Treasury Secretary Bessent, immigration policy by Stephen Miller, and foreign affairs by Rubio and Trump's special envoys Witkoff and Kushner. As the most likely successor, Vance needs considerable wisdom to navigate the Trump core team's operational mechanisms, remain agile, and endure until 2028. Speaker 1: Alright, that concludes our discussion on Vance and 2028 for today. Thank you for listening and watching. 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