ASML：AI浪潮下的半导体投资价值初探
今天我们来深入探讨一下股票代码为ASML（阿斯麦）的公司。在不到300天的时间里，ASML的股价已飙升158.16%，实现了2.5倍的增长，这不禁让人思考：人工智能（AI）的泡沫是否已近疯狂？ASML股价已大幅上涨，现在是否仍是买入时机？本期视频将从ASML最新的财务报告、基本面、竞争环境以及其核心的“护城河”等多个维度进行详尽分析。 我个人持有ASML股票已有471天。近期ASML股价的强劲表现，使其已成为我投资组合中的最大仓位，其市值甚至超越了我对谷歌（Google）的持仓。 如下图所示，这是我个人交易账户中ASML的仓位回报表现。持有超过一年，我的复合年化回报率达到了78.38%。值得注意的是，近期美元汇率的下跌实际上已在我整体回报中造成了一定的汇兑损失。 与此同时，如果我同期持有的是标普500指数ETF，我的年化回报率仅为12.06%。显而易见，ASML的回报表现远远领先于大盘。ASML为我带来了可观的收益。 再来看我家庭信托账户中ASML的持仓表现。此账户的复合年化回报率更高，达到了93.78%。若不考虑汇率波动，年化率甚至超过了100%。而同期若投资标普500指数ETF，年化回报率则为11.19%。同样，在这个账户中，ASML的持仓表现也显著优于大盘。ASML无疑是我整体投资组合能够大幅跑赢大盘的关键因素之一。
Original English
ASML, stock code ASML. ASML's stock price has risen by 158.16% in less than 300 days, more than 2.5 times. Is the AI bubble getting close to crazy? ASML's stock price has risen so much, is it still possible to buy it now? Today's video, we will analyze ASML in detail from multiple aspects such as ASML's latest financial report, latest fundamentals, competitive environment, and moat. I have held ASML for 471 days. ASML's recent surge in the past few weeks has also made it my largest position. To be honest, I didn't expect ASML to surpass my Google position. Let's look at this chart. This is the performance of ASML in my personal trading account. After holding for more than a year, my compound annual growth rate is 78.38%. And recently, the sharp drop in the US dollar has caused me to lose a lot of returns due to exchange rates. During the same period, if I held the S&P 500 ETF, My annualized rate of return would be 12.06%. It is very clear that my ASML return has far surpassed the market. ASML has made me a lot of money. Let's look at this chart again. This is the performance of ASML in my family trust account. Here my compound annualized rate is higher, at 93.78%. If exchange rate factors are not considered, my annualized rate has exceeded 100%. And during the same period, if I bought the S&P 500 Index ETF, My annualized rate of return will be 11.19%. Similarly, in this account, my ASML position performance is far superior to the market. ASML is one of the important reasons why my overall portfolio can significantly outperform the market.ASML的财务剖析：EUV、DUV及装机管理业务的增长动力
那么，ASML是否还能继续上涨？现在是否到了“落袋为安”的时机？要回答这些问题，我们必须深入分析公司最新的财务报告。 我们来看财报中的这张图，这也是我每次审阅ASML财报时最关注的PPT。这张图信息量巨大，稍作解释：图上的ArFi（先进图形光刻）基本上指的是DUV（深紫外光刻机）。而EUV（极紫外光刻）是目前生产主流AI逻辑芯片的唯一技术。 与上个季度相比，本季度ASML多卖了5台EUV设备。而DUV设备销量则与上个季度基本持平，仅少卖一台。考虑到ASML的EUV设备单价高达2亿美元，这多卖的5台EUV设备对营收产生了巨大拉动作用，显著提高了EUV业务的数据。 接下来我们看这张图，这是我为大家总结的最新季度数据（已换算成美元）。我认为，单独分析ASML的单季度细分数据意义并非特别大，因为其客单价极高，多卖一台机器就会对当季整体数据产生显著影响。不过，我还是会在此稍微分析一下本季度的表现。 从ASML的商业模式来看，公司目前主要从事三项业务：
- EUV营收：最新季度为30亿美元，同比增长21.80%，占总营收的37.59%。
- DUV营收：最新季度为25.4亿美元，同比增长3.98%，占总营收的31.33%。
- Installed Base Management（装机管理业务）：最新季度营收17.6亿美元，同比增长为零（与2024年第四季度营收持平），占总营收的21.69%。 我们继续看这张图，我认为这张图更具参考意义。它整体展示了三大业务的表现：ASML的三个业务增长都相当稳定，其中DUV（用于生产存储芯片）的增长最快，复合年化增长率约20%，主要客户包括Micron（美光）、SK Hynix和三星（Samsung）。 其次，EUV和装机管理业务的复合年化增长率均约为13%。管理层在财报中表示，本季度是公司有史以来营收、订单量及自由现金流都最为强劲的一个季度。此外，由于服务升级需求的强劲，装机管理业务营收增长了26%。 在EUV方面，客户正从4纳米（nm）制程向3纳米（nm）过渡，并已准备开始2纳米（nm）的产能爬坡，这里的客户主要是指台积电（TSMC）。
Original English
The question is, ASML has risen so high, will it continue to rise in the future? Is it time for me to cash out? To answer these questions, we still need to analyze the company's latest financial report in detail. Let's look at this chart in the financial report. This is also the PPT that I pay most attention to every time I look at ASML's financial report. Don't look at just this PPT, but the information on it is actually huge. Let me explain briefly. We see ArFi on the chart. In fact, it basically refers to DUV, Deep Ultraviolet lithography machine. EUV is Extreme Ultraviolet technology, which is also the only model for producing mainstream AI logic chips today. Compared to the last quarter, This quarter ASML sold 5 more EUV machines. Basically similar to the last quarter, one less than the last quarter. You know, ASML's EUV is easily $200 million per unit, So these 5 additional EUV machines have a huge impact. Directly pulling up the EUV data a lot. Let's look at this chart again. This is the latest quarterly data I summarized for you. Note that I have converted everything to US dollars here. In fact, I think analyzing ASML's segmented data for a single quarter is not very meaningful. Why do I say that? Because I found that ASML's unit price is too high. Selling one more machine will affect the overall data for the quarter. However, I will still analyze this quarter a little bit. Looking at ASML's business model, it currently does three things. First, EUV revenue is $3B, a year-on-year increase of 21.80%, accounting for 37.59% of total revenue. Second, DUV's latest quarterly revenue is $2.54B, a year-on-year increase of 3.98%, accounting for 31.33% of total revenue. Finally, we see this Installed Base Management, the business of installed base management. The latest quarterly revenue is $1.76B, with a year-on-year growth of zero because the revenue in the fourth quarter of 2024 was also this much. Currently, this business accounts for 21.69% of total revenue. Let's continue to look at this chart. This chart is more meaningful to me. Management here has shown the overall performance of the three major businesses. From the chart, we can see that ASML's three businesses are growing. In fact, all are very stable, with DUV growing the fastest, which is the business shown in the chart for producing storage chips. ASML's main customers here are Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung. The compound annual growth rate is about 20%. Secondly, the compound annual growth rate of EUV and installed base management business are both around 13%. Management also stated in the earnings report that the current quarter is the company's strongest quarter ever in terms of revenue, orders, and free cash flow. Then, due to the strong demand for service upgrades in the installed base management business, its revenue grew by 26%. EUV customers are transitioning from 4nm to 3nm, and customers are preparing to start ramping up production at 2nm. In fact, this customer refers to TSMC.ASML的竞争壁垒与财务健康度评估
现在我来谈谈ASML的竞争情况和护城河。通常分析其他公司时，这是我需要花费大量篇幅讲解的部分。但谈及ASML，其实没什么太多可说的，因为ASML在其所属市场，无论是DUV还是EUV，都处于一家独大、垄断的局面。客户几乎没有其他选择。因此，ASML的护城河可以说是全世界最强，是进入壁垒的代名词。 我们来看这张图，这是ASML最新财报的一页概览。首先，公司财务非常健康：现金加上一年内的FCF（自由现金流）是借款的9倍。通常，只要一倍以上我们就认为财务健康，而九倍则说明ASML目前拥有大量现金。 ROIC（投入资本回报率）最新值为41.61%，这个数值高得惊人。营收和经营利润均创下新高，经营利润率目前为34.60%。最新POI（Operating Income）为41.42，最新Price to FCF（市销比）为42.23。公司极擅长创造现金，OCF（经营现金流）是OI（Operating Income）的1.12倍。同时，R&D（研发）开支占OCF的37.12%。 我们接着看这张图，这是公司过去一年内的现金分析。ASML在过去一年中赚取了148.7亿美元的经营现金。其中12.43%用于CAPEX（资本支出），20%用于派息，47%用于股份回购。此外，公司SBC（股权激励）的派发体量仅相当于经营现金流的1.6%。老实说，从这种现金分配策略来看，ASML的管理层非常符合我的投资偏好。 从公司经营利润的表现上，我们也能清晰地看到ASML的经营利润正在持续增强。 我们再看这张图，这是ASML最新的季度品质评分。在我设定的评分体系下，ASML获得了88.50分，这是一个非常非常夸张的分数，在我分析过的所有公司中排名第三。在护城河评分上，我给了满分15分，这也是我唯一给满分的公司，因为我认为其护城河比我评分14.5的公司更强，且全球无出其右。因此，我给予其15分的护城河评分。回报的可预测性和定价能力我也各给了9.5分。 客观而言，ASML几乎没有短板。如果非要挑剔，可能就是R&D开支占比较大。但即便如此，公司在此项上也获得了两分。而且，考虑到ASML凭借一己之力推动了人类科技文明发展，为**摩尔定律（Moore's Law）**强行续命，其高额的研发开支似乎也无可厚非。所以，我不太确定这是否能算作短板。
Original English
Now let's talk about ASML's competitive situation and moat. To be honest, usually when analyzing other companies, this is something I would spend a lot of time on. But when it comes to ASML, there's not much to talk about. Because ASML is dominant in its market, whether it's DUV or EUV, it's a monopoly. Besides ASML, customers have no other options. So, in my opinion, ASML's moat is arguably the strongest in the world. It's no exaggeration to say that its moat is synonymous with entry barriers. Let's look at this chart. This is a page from ASML's latest financial report overview. First, the company's financial health is excellent. Cash + FCF for 1 year is 9 times the borrowings. You know, under normal circumstances, as long as it's more than one time, we consider the finances to be very healthy. This nine times only indicates that ASML currently has a large amount of cash on hand. ROIC is latest at 41.61%, which is frighteningly high. Revenue hit a new high, operating profit hit a new high. The operating profit margin is currently 34.60%. Latest POI is 41.42. Latest Price to FCF is 42.23. The company is good at generating cash, OCF is 1.12 times OI. At the same time, we also see that R&D expenses account for 37.12% of OCF. Let's look at this chart. This is the company's latest 1-year cash analysis. The company can earn $14.87B in operating cash in the latest year. 12.43% of this is used for CAPEX, capital investment. 20% is used for dividends, 47% for share buybacks. In addition, the volume of SBC distribution by the company is only equivalent to 1.6% of operating cash flow. Honestly, from this way of distributing cash, ASML's management is very much to my liking. From the performance of the company's operating profit, we can also see with our own eyes that ASML's operating profit is getting stronger and stronger. Let's continue to look at this chart. This is ASML's latest quarterly quality score. Under my scoring system, ASML latest score is 88.50 points. This score is extremely exaggerated. It ranks third among all the companies I have analyzed. For moat score, I gave a full score of 15 points. This is also the only company I gave 15 points to. Because I think its moat is actually stronger than the companies I gave 14.5 points to. And no other company in the world can be in this tier. So I gave it a moat score of 15 points. I also gave 9.5 points for return predictability and pricing power. Objectively speaking, we find that the company has no shortcomings. If you want to pick a bone, it might be that the company's R&D expenses are a bit high. But even on this project, the company still got two points. And think about it, ASML, a company that has single-handedly driven the development of human technological civilization and forcefully extended the life of Moore's Law, high R&D expenses seem justifiable, right? So I don't know if this counts as a shortcoming.ASML的投资逻辑、潜在风险与个人投资理念
除开研发投入这一项，我们看到公司的基本面可以说是无懈可击，没有任何可以挑剔的地方。 总而言之，ASML是我最好的投资理念（Idea）之一。我最初涉足半导体市场时，投资的是Micron（美光）。但当我了解到ASML能够为**摩尔定律（Moore's Law）至少续命10年后，我便清仓了Micron，并将全部资金押注在了ASML上。虽然目前ASML的股价表现不及Micron，但我并不后悔。在我看来，ASML依然是比Micron更优秀的公司。 我认为ASML的未来前景光明，主要风险在于集成电路（IC）制造技术再次实现重大突破，即半导体市场出现新的颠覆性制程技术，这将直接攻克ASML的技术壁垒。否则，ASML在相当长的一段时间内将继续保持盈利能力。 感谢您观看本期唐石峻财富体验。如果您看到这里，说明您认为我的视频能为您提供一定的价值。我是一名会计，自2015年入市至今，有幸跑赢了标普500大盘。 相信您也能感受到，我和一般的投资博主不同：我不喊单，也不提供买入价。比起提供情绪价值，我更注重用会计的底层逻辑，带您拆解公司的商业结构和基本面。我分享的是能够帮助您实现财富自由的底层认知，并帮助您搭建属于自己的投资体系。 以上就是本期的全部内容。如果您对美股微软（Microsoft）**感兴趣，千万不要错过这个视频。感谢您的收看，祝您投资顺利！我们下期见。