金融科技巨头论道:高盛与A16z的规模、AI与未来战略 a16z 2026-02-02

引言:规模与时机

主持人: 十年前,我们是全球最大的批发资金提供者。世界上有很多事情你希望自己是最大的,但批发资金提供者不是其中之一。

Original English

主持人: We were the largest wholesale funder in the world 10 years ago. There are a lot of things you want to be the largest in the world. Wholesale fund not one of them.

主持人: 我们受到了很多批评,比如“你们现在为什么要募资?你们是不是傻?”结果证明,最好的募资时机就是没人有钱的时候。

Original English

主持人: We got a lot of criticism like why are you raising money now? What are you stupid? And it turns out that the best time to raise money is when nobody has money.

主持人: 去年,四家最大的公司贡献了GDP增长的1%,它们的支出达4000亿美元。并购和资本募集(IPO)是由信心驱动的。在过去四年里,无论问题是什么,答案都是“不”。现在,无论问题是什么,答案都是“也许”。David,你已经在高盛工作超过25年了。你现在关注什么来为高盛的未来定位?

Original English

主持人: Last year the four largest companies contributed 1% to GDP growth with their $400 billion of spending. M&A and capital raising IPOs are driven by confidence. For the last four years, whatever the question was, the answer was no. Okay. Now, whatever the question is, the answer is maybe. David, you've been at Goldman now over 25 years. You know, what are you focused on to position Goldman for the future?

David Solomon: 如果你从事我们这类业务,如果你的业务与金融资产相关,那么现在正是我所见过的最佳时机。

Original English

David Solomon: If you're in our kind of businesses, if you're attached to financial assets, this is as sweet a spot that I've seen.

Ben Horowitz: 有了AI,如果你拥有专有数据和足够的GPU,你几乎可以解决任何问题。这简直是魔法。

Original English

Ben Horowitz: With AI, if you have proprietary data and you have enough GPUs, you can solve like almost any problem. It is magic.

高盛的演变与未来战略

主持人: 我很荣幸至少间接地为David SolomonBen Horowitz两位工作过,我对高盛a16z都充满感情。如果你还没读过Charles Ellis写的《合伙制》这本书,我强烈推荐,它记录了高盛近160年的历史。我认为高盛历史上最了不起的一点是,它不是通过一系列银行合并建立起来的业务,不像许多同行,它真的是一代又一代富有创业精神的合伙人亲手、一点一滴建立起来的业务,无论是拓展欧洲市场,还是开创商业银行或财富管理部门。这些业务部门中的许多都成为了全球特许经营权。我认为,高盛过去是,现在仍然是世界上最具创业精神的金融机构之一。当我思考Andreessen Horowitz自身的发展时,我有点喜欢认为这就像高盛在50或75年前的感觉。一小群有创业精神的投资者,押注未来。

Original English

主持人: I've had the distinct pleasure of working at least indirectly for both David Solomon and Ben Horowitz and uh have a lot of affection for both Goldman Sachs and a16z. Um if you haven't read, I highly recommend reading the book The Partnership uh which is written by a guy named Charles Ellis which chronicles Goldman's nearly 160-year history. And I think the most remarkable thing about Goldman's history is the fact that it's not a business built through a series of bank mergers. Unlike many of its peers, it was really a business built brick by brick by generations of entrepreneurial partners raising their hand, going off and building new businesses, whether it was expanding into Europe or starting the merchant banking business or the wealth management division. You know, many of these business units became global franchises. And I'd argue that, you know, Goldman was and still is one of the most entrepreneurial financial institutions in the world. And as I think about where we are in our own evolution at Andreessen Horowitz, I kind of like to think that this is what Goldman Sachs must have felt like, you know, 50 or 75 years ago. You know, a small group of entrepreneurial investors betting on a future

主持人: 他们不像你们那么富有。

Original English

主持人: weren't as rich as you guys that that

主持人: 而且高盛萨克斯(Sachs)也永远停止了对话。

Original English

主持人: also Goldman stopped speaking to Sachs like forever.

主持人: 他们是不是因为萨克斯在一战中支持德国而彼此非常生气?你居然还记得历史,哇。

Original English

主持人: Like they got very mad at each other over was it Sachs who supported Germany in World War I? So he's you actually remember your history. Wow. Yeah.

Ben Horowitz: 嗯,是的,一个对未来充满巨大希望和抱负的小型合伙企业。我就说到这里。

Original English

Ben Horowitz: Um well, yeah, small partnership betting on the future with big hopes and ambitions. I'll I'll leave it at that. Um

主持人: 说得好,David

Original English

主持人: well done, David.

David Solomon: 谢谢。嗯,也许,是的,也许就沿着这个思路,David,你已经在高盛工作超过25年了。我记得你是在1999年,也就是公司IPO之后加入的。在你任职期间,公司是如何演变的?更重要的是,你现在关注什么来为高盛的未来定位?

Original English

David Solomon: Thank you. Um but maybe, yeah, maybe just, you know, pulling on that thread, um you know, David, you've been at at Goldman now over 25 years. You joined the firm, I believe, in in 1999, just after the firm's IPO, you know, how has the firm evolved during your tenure? And maybe more importantly, um you know, what are you focused on to position Goldman for the future?

David Solomon: 哦,在开始之前,首先,很高兴来到这里,很高兴和大家在一起。在开始之前,我只想说我人生中的一个重要教训是,如果你要加入一家新公司,如果它是一个私人合伙企业,不要花六个月时间谈判,以至于错过了IPO日期。在IPO之前加入,在IPO之前加入。这对所有从事私人合伙业务的人来说都是一个很好的教训。嗯,你知道,这家公司是一个非凡的地方,我非常感谢你对公司和公司创业精神的评价。公司在很长一段时间里都是一个私人合伙企业。私人合伙企业的特点是,你拥有这种共同代理权,人们可以出去做事情。有一些结构每年或每个周期都会形成一个集体,所有事情都会回到原点,然后对合伙企业股份进行重新评估,然后你再次出发,走向未来,做更多的事情。这让公司受益匪浅,公司保持合伙制的时间比任何其他真正的大型华尔街公司都要长得多。

Original English

David Solomon: Oh, before before first of all, it's great to be here. Great to be with everybody. Before I start on that, I just say one of the big lessons I have in my life is if you're joining a new firm, it's a private partnership. Don't spend six months negotiating so you carry over past the IPO date. Join join before join before the IPO. It's a good good lesson for all of you in private partnerships. Um, you know, it's it's the firm's a remarkable place and I really appreciate what you said about the firm and the entrepreneurial spirit of the firm. The firm was for a long time a private partnership. And the thing about private partnerships is you have this mutual agency where people go off and they do things. There's some structure that creates a collective each year or each cycle where everything comes back and then there's a re-evaluation of the partnership shares and you go off again, you know, into the future to do more. And that served the firm incredibly well and the firm stayed a partnership much longer than than any other real totally

David Solomon: 但我想说,公司一直保持合伙制,直到它绝对不能再是合伙制的那一刻,因为它需要永久资本才能真正成为一个有影响力的业务。如果公司在1999年没有上市,它就会错过资本市场的全球扩张,可能看起来更像拉扎德(Lazard),而不是像高盛。所以,你知道,当时公司的管理者做得非常出色。我认为我们在过去25年面临的挑战,以及过去八年的领导团队在这方面做得非常出色,就是如何共同努力,在IPO 25年后,我们仍然拥有这种合伙文化,每两年成为高盛合伙人都是一个高度抱负的目标,我们有450名员工,他们的薪酬与整个企业的表现相关。但最让我引以为豪的是,作为广泛的领导层,我们已经开始认识到我们不是一个小型私人合伙企业,你不能成为一家上市公司而不成长,并且没有某种自上而下的战略方向。是的,这真的让整个事情变得有意义,你知道,1加1加1加1等于比数学总和更多的东西。这是一个旅程,而且坎坷不平。你曾经历过其中的一部分颠簸。

Original English

David Solomon: big Wall Street firm. But I I'd like to say that the firm stayed a partnership until the last moment when it absolutely couldn't be a partnership anymore because it needed the permanent capital to really make it a relevant business. If the firm hadn't gone public in 1999, it would have missed kind of the global expansion of capital markets and probably would look more like, not to pick on anybody, but just to pick any more like Lazard today than than like Goldman Sachs. And so, you know, the stewards of the firm at that point did an incredible job. I think the challenge for us over the last 25 years and I think you know the leadership team over the last eight years has really done an incredible job at this working together to do this is somehow 25 years after an IPO we still have this partnership culture it's highly aspirational every two years to become a partner of Goldman Sachs we have 450 people who really are compensated and a correlation to how the overall enterprise does um but the big thing that that I'm really proud of that as a broad leadership we've done is We've started to recognize that that we're not a small private partnership and you can't be a public company and not grow and have some form of top down strategic direction. Yeah. That that really gets the whole thing making, you know, the 1 plus 1 plus 1 plus one equal, you know, more than what the math adds up to. And that's been a journey and it's been bumpy. You were there for part of those bumps.

David Solomon: 确实。嗯,但是,我认为我们已经很好地应对了,而且,你知道,我们仍然秉持着作为一家公司的原则和价值观。我们真正努力成为世界上最卓越的金融机构。我们不总能达到目标,但我们为此而奋斗,你知道,我们真正基于客户服务、合伙精神、诚信和卓越这四个核心价值观。我们努力践行它们,我认为公司现在处于一个非常好的位置。但在某些方面,它在26年里根本没有改变。在某些方面,它改变了,而且改变巨大。

Original English

David Solomon: True. Um but um but I think we've we've navigated well and I I you know we've got I I I still think you know the principles the values that we kind of sit upon as a firm. We really strive to be the most exceptional financial institution in the world. We don't always get there but we strive for that and you know we really sit on four core values of client service, partnership, integrity and excellence. Try to live it and um and I think the firm's in a really good place. But it's it's in some ways it hasn't changed at all in 26 years. In some ways it's changed. It's changed massively.

主持人: 作为CEO,你最关注的几件事是什么,展望未来五到十年?

Original English

主持人: Are there a few things you're most focused on as CEO kind of looking forward, you know, for the next five or ten years?

David Solomon: 当然。你知道,我曾经是一名银行家,在我的职业生涯中,我为许多CEO提供咨询,但真正承担责任,这是我过去八年的一个重要体会,与提供建议非常不同。你知道,我认为一个CEO在像这样的大型企业中最重要的职责是,他们必须掌握公司的战略和方向。你知道,我关注的是如何确保我们朝着公司增长的方向执行,因为我知道我们必须这样做才能在相对基础上表现出色。但同时,我也在思考和担心,你知道,那些可能使公司失去相关性、成功性、重要性和竞争力的宏观战略风险。你知道,对我们来说,我认为公司真正关注两件事。首先,我认为美国之所以是一个非凡的地方,其中一个原因是我们拥有最非凡的资本市场、最非凡的金融体系和最非凡的金融机构。我认为美国最重要的六家金融机构都是美国金融机构,没有任何全球机构能在世界范围内的相关性上与这六家最重要的美国机构竞争。当你审视这些机构时,它们有不同类型。有零售银行,更传统的银行,包括摩根大通(JP Morgan)、富国银行(Wells Fargo)、美国银行(Bank of America)、花旗银行(City Bank)。它们都有全球业务,但它们本质上是银行。它们拥有零售平台和零售业务。然后你有两家机构性公司。这并不意味着它们不以不同方式接触个人,但摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和高盛都是机构性公司。高盛在作为机构性公司的定位上有点像一个孤岛,摩根士丹利在它们的定位上也有点像一个孤岛。

Original English

David Solomon: Sure. You know, one of the things I've I I was a banker and I advised CEOs for a lot of my career, but actually owning the responsibility. That's one of my big takeaways the last eight years is very different than um than giving advice. You know, I think the most important thing that a CEO has to do in a big enterprise like this is they have to kind of own the strategy and the direction of the firm. And you know, I'm focused on how we ensure we're executing toward growing the firm because I know we have to do that to perform on a relative basis. But then I'm also thinking about and worrying about, you know, big picture strategic risks that can make the firm less relevant, less successful, less important, less competitive. And you know for us I think there are two things that the firm is really focused on. I think first of all one of the one of the things that makes the United States an extraordinary place is we have the most extraordinary capital markets most extraordinary financial system. The most extraordinary financial institutions. I would argue that the six most important financial institutions in the US are all US financial institutions and there is no global institution that can compete in terms of its relevance in the world with the six most important US institutions. When you look at those institutions, there are there are different kinds of institutions. There are retail banks, more traditional banky banks. Um that would include JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, City Bank. They all have global businesses, but they are truly banks and what they do. They have retail platforms, retail businesses. And then you've got two institutional firms. That doesn't mean they don't touch individuals in different ways, but Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are both institutional firms. And Goldman Sachs is a little bit of an island of one in the context of the way we're positioned as an institutional firm. And Morgan Stanley is a little bit of an island to one in terms of the way they're positioned.

规模与资金:金融机构的生存之道

David Solomon: 规模非常重要。

Original English

David Solomon: Scale matters a lot

David Solomon: 我刚刚提到了所有这些公司。其中两家最小的公司是高盛摩根士丹利。所以当世界出现动荡时,你总是需要规模。在这些业务中,因为它们非常成熟,规模能给你带来巨大的杠杆和回旋余地。

Original English

David Solomon: and I just went through all those firms. The two smallest firms of all those firms are Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. And so when there's turbulence in the world, you always want scale. scale in these businesses because they're so mature gives you enormous leverage and latitude.

David Solomon: 所以我们一直在思考规模问题,我们展望未来5年、10年、15年,我们如何保持竞争力所需的规模水平?10年前,高盛拥有1.9万亿美元的资产负债表是不可想象的。

Original English

David Solomon: And so we continue to think a lot about scale and we think out 5 10 15 years how are we going to maintain a level of scale that makes us competitive? 10 years ago um it would be in unfathomable that Goldman Sachs could have a $1.9 trillion balance sheet

David Solomon: 但目前摩根大通拥有4.5万亿美元的资产负债表。当摩根大通是六倍大时,我们至少需要达到三倍半,你知道,至少三倍半。所以,我们必须思考如何继续创造这种规模,因为这些都是非常成熟的业务,很难纯粹通过有机增长来真正建立这种规模。所以,这是第一点。第二点,资金。为这些企业提供资金是这些企业面临的重大战略风险之一。这些企业依赖资金和流动性生存,你知道,我们没有传统的存款资金平台。我们有一个非常出色的数字存款平台,你参与了其中,现在拥有超过2000亿美元的存款,我们总共有大约5000亿美元的存款。15年前,我们是零。

Original English

David Solomon: but at the moment JP Morgan has a $4.5 trillion dollar balance sheet. when JP Morgan's six, we're gonna have to be at least three and a half, you know, at least three and a half. And so, we have to think about how we can continue to create that scale because these are very mature businesses and it's hard to really build that scale um you know, just purely organically. So, that's one. Two, funding. Funding these enterprises is one of the big strategic risks to these enterprises. These enterprises live on funding and liquidity and you know we don't have a traditional deposit funding platform. We've got and you participated in this a very excellent digital deposit platform that now has you know over $200 billion in deposits and we've also we have about $500 billion of total deposits. 15 years ago we had zero.

David Solomon: 所以我们公司大约40%的资金来自存款,但存款比机构批发资金来源更稳定。

Original English

David Solomon: So we fund about 40% of the firm deposits but deposits is a much more stable funding source than institutional wholesale funding.

主持人: 商业票据。

Original English

主持人: Commercial paper.

David Solomon: 是的。十年前,我们是全球最大的批发资金提供者。世界上有很多事情你希望自己是最大的,但批发资金提供者不是其中之一。嗯,所以,从战略上讲,这是我们关注的另一件事。所以这些都是重要的事项,需要退后一步,摆脱日常执行,思考未来10年、15年、20年,顺便说一句,那时我不会在这里管理公司,但这仍然是我的责任。

Original English

David Solomon: Yeah. We were we were the largest wholesale funder in the world 10 years ago. There are a lot of things you want to be the largest in the world. Wholesale fund not one of them. Um and so um that strategically is another thing we were about. So those are big things on stepping back and getting away from the execution day-to-day and thinking 10 15 20 years which by the way I won't be here running the firm but it's still my responsibility

David Solomon: 去管理和规划。短期内我担心的是,你知道,更多地关注整个组织的技术。以及技术如何改变我们做事的方式,我们如何重建流程,以不同的方式运作,同时忠于我们所做的事情。

Original English

David Solomon: to steward and and chart that. I worry about that in the short term you know much more focused on technology across the organization. and how technology shifts the way we do things, how we're rebuilding processes, operating differently while staying true to what we do.

主持人: 太棒了。嗯,今天我们也会在这方面提供帮助。

Original English

主持人: Awesome. Well, we're here to help with that today, too.

David Solomon: 绝对。

Original English

David Solomon: Absolutely.

Andreessen Horowitz的崛起与投资哲学

主持人: 嗯,Ben,也许我们转向你。嗯,你知道,你和Mark在2009年金融危机之后的一个吉祥时刻创立了公司。

Original English

主持人: Um Ben, maybe uh transitioning to you. Um you know, you and Mark started the firm at an auspicious time uh in the wake of the financial crisis in 2009.

Ben Horowitz: 2009年。

Original English

Ben Horowitz: 2009.

主持人: 嗯,你知道,那是一个非常有趣的时刻,因为它标志着移动和云计算的兴起。

Original English

主持人: Um you know, it turned out to be a really interesting moment because it was, you know, the beginning of mobile and the rise of the cloud.

Ben Horowitz: 嗯,这也很滑稽,你知道,我们受到了很多批评,在风险投资领域,比如“你们现在为什么要募资?你们是不是傻?”结果证明,最好的募资时机就是没人有钱的时候。我的意思是,当你这样说的时候,这很明显,但是,投资的本质就是人们总是想在高点投资,而当市场低迷时,他们总是想退出,这只是一种现象,所以我们很幸运。

Original English

Ben Horowitz: Well, it's funny also, you know, we got a lot of criticism. um in kind of venture capital like why are you raising money now like what are you stupid um and it turns out that the best time to raise money is when nobody has money I mean like it's it's very obvious in you know when you say it that way but uh just the nature of investing is people always want to invest you know high and they always want to walk away when the market is low and it just is uh is one of those things so we we got very fortunate that I think. Yeah.

主持人: 也许你可以描述一下公司自成立以来的演变,以及你对未来的抱负。

Original English

主持人: Maybe you can kind of describe the evolution of the firm, you know, since you started and and again maybe what your ambitions are, you know, for the future as well.

Ben Horowitz: 是的。所以最初的想法,在风险投资领域,你必须具备的基本条件是,你必须是所谓的“顶级”(top tier),因为如果你不是顶级,那么最好的创业者就不会接受你的钱。所以,你知道,在市场非常火爆的时候,你可以成为一个不那么重要的风险投资公司,然后投资到好的交易中赚钱,但在大多数情况下,如果你不是顶级,你就会倒闭。嗯,所以你必须是顶级的。而成为顶级公司的困难之处在于,历史上,你成为顶级公司的方式是靠声誉。所以如果你是红杉资本(Sequoia),你投资了苹果(Apple)、思科(Cisco)、雅虎(Yahoo)和谷歌(Google)。所以如果你在2009年才开始,就很难弥补这个差距。所以我们最初的想法是,要达到顶级,基本上是要有一个更好的产品,一个专门为创业者设计的更好的产品。所以风险投资产品对有限合伙人(LPs)来说很棒,但我们认为对创业者来说很平庸。所以我们设计公司,基本上是为了真正让创始人能够建立自己的公司,并作为CEO来运营,这在当时并不是一个普遍的想法,当时的想法更多是取代创始人。你知道,这其中有很多因素,因为我们是创始人,我们知道那是什么感觉,所以我们创建了一家公司,为创始人提供品牌、权力和资源等各种东西。风险投资公司说他们做到了,但他们不必这样做,因为他们是顶级的,这不重要。所以我们做到了,这就是我们如何能够成为一家长久公司的。第二阶段,嗯,实际上是基于Mark在2011年写的一篇文章,叫做《软件正在吞噬世界》(Software is Eating the World)。《软件正在吞噬世界》这个想法基本上是,如果你看那之前的风险投资,有一些研究表明,在任何一年,大约会有15家技术公司达到1亿美元的收入,这些公司将是有价值的,其他公司将没有价值。所以整个风险投资的玩法就是你能进入这15家公司中的多少家?嗯,现在有了软件,如果软件要吞噬世界,我们认为那15家可能会变成150家。嗯,也许风险投资公司的一个特点将是,你必须能够扩大规模。嗯,传统上,我记得耶鲁大学(Yale)捐赠基金多年的管理者,伟大的Dave Swenson(安息吧)对我说,你知道,一个好的风险投资公司就像一支篮球队,你知道,五六个球员,仅此而已。但是你不能用六个球员来应对一个你需要投资150家公司的市场,所以你如何组织,如何扩大规模,如何设计公司,以便你能抓住整个机会,同时仍然在投资方面非常非常出色,并且没有超过五六个人讨论一笔交易。嗯,所以那是第二阶段,我想说,那时我们有点脱离了硅谷的传统模式,因为没有人那样思考。所以去年,2025年,美国所有风险投资的约18.3%是由我们募集的。所以我们现在从顶级变成了最大的。嗯,展望未来,我认为这会是这样。

Original English

Ben Horowitz: Yeah. So the original idea and in venture capital like the the fundamental thing that you have to be is you have to be what's known as top tier because if you're not top tier then the best entrepreneurs won't take your money. And so like there are times when you can, you know, when the market is so blazing hot that, you know, you can be like a not important venture capital firm and dump into good deals and make money, but in most times if you're not top tier, uh you're going to go out of business and um and and so you have to be that. And and the difficult thing about being top tier is historically the way you became top tier was reputationally. So if you're a Sequoia, you had invested in Apple and Cisco and Yahoo and Google. And so it's really hard to make up that ground if you're starting in 2009. So the idea we had originally to get to top tier was um to basically have a better product, a better product specifically for entrepreneurs. So the venture capital product was great for LPs and um but we thought mediocre for entrepreneurs. So we designed the firm uh to basically really enable a founder to uh basically build his or her own company um and run it uh as CEO which wasn't kind of an idea then the idea was much more to replace the founder um and you know there's a lot that went into it and because we were founders we knew what that was and so we kind of created a firm to give a founder like a brand and power and access and all these kinds of things. Uh VC said they did, but they they didn't have to because like they were top tier. It didn't matter. Uh and so we did that and that's kind of how we got into position to kind of be a longlasting firm. The second phase uh was really kind of based on something that Mark wrote in 2011 called software is eating the world. And the idea with software as eating the world was basically uh if you looked at venture capital up to that point there were these studies that said in any given year there are going to be 15 you know approximately 15 technology companies that get to 100 million in revenue and those are going to be the companies that are worth money and nothing else is going to be worth money. So the whole venture capital sport was how many of those 15 can you get into? Uh now with software if software was going to eat the world though we thought well maybe that 15 is going to be 150. Um and maybe one of the features of a venture capital firm is going to be you're going to have to be able to scale it. uh and none of the you know traditionally I remember Dave Swenson the great Dave Swenson RIP saying to me who was the uh ran the Yale endowment for years he said you know a good venture capital firm's like a basketball team you know five maybe six players that's it uh but you can't address you know a market where you have to be in 150 companies with six players so how do you organize how do you scale how do you design the firm so that you can get to the whole opportunity and yet still be like really really good at investing and not have more than five or six people talking about a deal. Uh and so that was sort of phase two and and that's really kind of I would say when we somewhat left the building in terms of um you know what was going on Silicon Valley uh because nobody else was thinking that way. And so this last year 2025 about 18 what is it 18.3% of all venture capital raised in the US was raised by us. So we're we're now like from tier one to the biggest um and going forward what I think that looks like is

Ben Horowitz: 然后我从我的老导师Andy Grove那里学到了很多这种思维方式。你知道,那实际上是在他生命的尽头,但他对我说的一件事我总是记得,对于那些不认识他的人来说,他曾管理英特尔(Intel),并带领公司度过了那场巨大的内存危机,改变了公司,他可能是我们见过的最伟大的科技CEO。但他说了些非常明显但又深刻的话,你知道,如果你是一个行业的领导者,那么这个行业的增长就取决于你。你必须拓展市场,没有人会替你做这件事。这责任落在你身上。他在英特尔非常认真地对待这一点。所以当我思考我们公司是什么时,很大一部分是,你知道,这是我们的责任,我们为加密货币和我们正在国际上做的事情,以及我们正在为美国活力做的事情,在政策方面做了很多工作,就像我们如何不仅仅是Andreessen Horowitz赢得胜利,而是这个国家如何在技术上赢得胜利,我们如何继续与中国竞争,我们如何在未来一百年保持相关性,就像我们在过去一百年一样。所以这反过来推动我们思考我们如何发展一些视野。

Original English

Ben Horowitz: and then I I get a lot of this thinking my uh my old mentor was uh Andy Grove um you know it was actually at the end of his life but one of the things he said to me that I always remember and for for me for those of you who don't know him he was uh you know he ran Intel and he got it through that great memory crisis and and changed the company probably the greatest tech CEO we've seen. Um but he said something that is very obvious in a way but also profound which was you know if you're the leader of an industry um then the growth of that industry depends on you. Uh you have to grow the market like nobody else is going to do it. It's not going to like that that is coming on you. And he he really took that seriously at Intel. And so when I think about you know what we are as a firm a lot of it is you know it's incumbent on us and a lot of the work that we've done on policy for crypto and um things that we're doing internationally things we're doing on American dynamism is like how do we win not just you know we Andreessen Horowitz but how does the country win technologically how do we uh continue to compete with China how do we uh be relevant in the next hundred years like we were in the last hundred years and so and And that drives backwards into how we think about how we have to develop some horiz.

宏观经济与市场展望

主持人: 太棒了。也许我们稍微转向市场。David,你会如何描述当前的宏观环境?你从你最密切合作和提供建议的CEO那里听到了什么?

Original English

主持人: Awesome. Maybe maybe we'll transition just a little bit to to markets. Um, you know, David, you know, how would you describe kind of the macro environment? You know, what are you hearing from the CEOs that you, you know, work and advise most closely?

David Solomon: 当然。

Original English

David Solomon: Sure.

David Solomon: 你知道,首先,JustinBen和我一直在讨论这个。如果你从事我们这类业务,如果你的业务与金融资产或可投资资产相关,那么现在,你知道,我从事这行已经40多年了。这是我所见过的宏观层面最好的时机。当然,这并不意味着世界上没有各种各样困难复杂的事情发生,但我认为我们正处于一个关键时刻。让我们先在美国待一会儿。我们可以谈论世界任何地方,但我们先从美国开始。

Original English

David Solomon: You know, first Justin and and and Ben and I were talking about this. If um good times if you're in um if you're in our kind of businesses, if you're attached to financial assets or investable assets, um this is, you know, I've been doing this for 40-some years. This is as sweet a spot um that that I've seen kind of macro picture. Now, that doesn't mean there aren't all sorts of um difficult complex things going on in the world, but I think we're at a moment. Let's just be here in the United States for a minute. can go around the world and talk about anywhere you want, but let's just start here in the United States.

David Solomon: 大量且持续增加的财政刺激,顺便说一句,从2026年开始的那个“大而美”的法案只会增加更多。并不是我们之前没有处于一个非常刺激的环境中,我们只是又增加了更多。我们有财政刺激,我们有货币刺激,因为我们正处于降息周期。这不意味着我认为我们会看到更多降息,但我们可能会看到几次。我们正处于一个资本投资超级周期,这是我们从未见过的。去年,四家最大的公司通过4000亿美元的支出,贡献了GDP增长的1%。嗯,我们正处于一个放松监管的周期,从上一届政府期间的大规模监管浪潮,到非常刺激的放松监管回潮。所有这些因素,它简直就是一种刺激的混合物,很难减缓经济增长。虽然普通美国人肯定感受到了很多压力,因为物价上涨。你可以说通货膨胀从9%降到3%,但底线是所有东西都贵了25%到30%。这就是美国人的感受。有压力,但同时,巨大的金融杠杆使经济持续运转,并使经济更具韧性。所以,如果你拥有货币资产或可投资资产,嗯,如果你关注增长和技术,这是一个非常好的环境。我可以告诉你一百件可能引发问题的事情。嗯,去年四月,你知道,如果你去年一月在达沃斯(Davos),人们也有同样的感觉。然后四月,我们遇到了一个减速带,但对你们所有人来说,那只是一个短暂的减速带。我认为还有两件事推动市场向前发展。第一,你有一位总统,如果你看去年四月的减速带,他每天都会根据市场情况进行调整。如果市场走向错误的方向,他会毫不犹豫地非常迅速地调整。第二,AI投资带来的生产力提升,以及将其引入企业并被企业采纳。市场正在提前消化他们预期在未来一、二、三、四年内实现的大部分成果。

Original English

David Solomon: The combination of the significant amount in continued continuing to increase fiscal stimulus, and by the way, the big beautiful bill that started in 26 just adds more to that. It's not that we weren't in a very stimulative place, we just added a whole bunch more. We have fiscal stimulus, we have monetary stimulus because we're in a rate cutting cycle. That doesn't mean I think we're going to see many more rate cuts, but we're probably going to see a couple more. We are in a capital investment super cycle, like something we've never seen. Last year, the four largest companies contributed 1% to GDP growth with their 400 billion of spending. Um we are in a deregulatory um unwind cycle from a massive regulatory surge during the last administration to a deregulatory windback that is very stimulative. All these things it's it's just such a cocktail of stimulus that it's very very hard to slow the economy down. And while average Americans definitely feel a lot of stress because everything's more expensive. You could talk about inflation going from 9 to three, but the bottom line is everything is 25 to 30% more expensive. And that's the way Americans feel it. There's pressure, but at the same time, there's enormous financial leverage that keeps the economy going and it makes the economy a little bit more versatile. And so, if you own monetary assets or investable assets, um, if you're around growth and technology, these are pretty this is a pretty prime environment. I'll give you a hundred things that can set it off. Um, last April, you know, if you were if you were in Davos last January, people felt the same way. And then in April, we had a speed bump, but was all of you short speed bump. And I think one of the things that also has there are two things that I think has the market moving ahead. One, you've got a president that if you look at the speed bump last April, he marks to market to that market every single day. And the market's going in the wrong direction, he has no problem adjusting very, very quickly. And number two, the productivity gains from AI investment and putting it into the enterprise and having the enterprise pick it up. The market is pulling forward a lot of what they expect to be delivered over the next 1, two, three, four years.

David Solomon: 所以这是一个非常好的宏观环境。现在地缘政治要艰难得多。我们正在回到一个多极世界,地缘政治问题真正减缓增长的风险,我不是说它很高,但它比过去10年、20年、30年,自从柏林墙倒塌以来,要高得多。嗯,你知道,看,世界是脆弱的,社交媒体制造了很多波动和分裂,人们吸收信息的方式,信息传播的方式。

Original English

David Solomon: And so that's a that's a pretty prime macro environment. Now geopolitics much tougher. We're moving back to a multip-olar world and the risk of a geopolitical problem that really slows down growth is just I'm not saying it's high but it's much higher than it's been from the last for the last you know kind of 10 20 30 years since the wall fell and um you know look the world is the world is fragile social media creates a lot of volatility and division the way people absorb information the way information moves

David Solomon: 让世界运行得更快,但也更不稳定。嗯,所以很多事情都可能出错,但目前从经济角度来看,这种刺激的混合物非常强大。

Original English

David Solomon: makes the world faster moving but also more volatile Um and so a lot can go wrong but at the moment from an economic a base economic perspective that cocktail of stimulus is pretty powerful.

主持人: 也许给你们两位一个后续问题。我的意思是,你们预计今年会有很多并购或IPO吗?你们是如何建议你们的CEO的?

Original English

主持人: Maybe a follow-up question for for both of you. I mean you know do you expect to see a lot of M&A or IPOs this year? How how are you sort of advising your CEOs?

David Solomon: 我们有很多听众。这是一个很好的银行家回答。

Original English

David Solomon: We have a yes a lot of them in the audience. It's a good banker respon

David Solomon: 只是基于事实。好的,基于我们之前有一个非常非常艰难的监管环境。并购和资本募集(IPO)是由信心驱动的,所以如果你有一个艰难的监管环境,那会影响信心。从并购的角度来看,在过去四年里,对于战略性并购,无论问题是什么,答案都是“不”。

Original English

David Solomon: just just factbased. Okay based we had you had a very very tough regulatory environment. M&A and capital raising IPOs are driven by confidence and so if you have a tough regulatory environment that is something that affects confidence from an M&A perspective on strategic M&A for the last four years whatever the question was the answer was no

主持人: 对。

Original English

主持人: right

David Solomon: 好的,现在无论问题是什么,即使它非常非常重要,答案都是“也许”。所以CEO们喜欢期待什么?他们喜欢做大事,他们想做,所以有很多活动。事实上,所以我只是认为,再次强调,这是一个你会看到显著增长的环境。我认为今年可能是历史上最大的并购年。这只是我的预测。我认为今年将是历史上最大的并购年。这将是一个更大的IPO年。原因是一大批这些大公司终于决定要上市了。但你对此也会有自己的看法。嗯,我认为作为一家上市公司是一件可怕的事情。我不会抱怨。

Original English

David Solomon: okay now whatever the question is the answer even if it's very very significant the answer is maybe so what do C CEOs like to look forward they like to do big things they want to and so there's there's a lot of activity fact and so I I just think Again, this is an environment where you're going to see a significant I think this could be the biggest M&A year. This is just me predicting. I think it'll be the biggest M&A year in history this year. It's going to be a bigger IPO year. Reason thinking a bunch of these big companies that are finally deciding they want to come through the pipe. But you you'll have a view on that too. Um I I being a public company is a horrible thing. I do not rant.

主持人: 不要抱怨。

Original English

主持人: Do not rant.

David Solomon: 从某种程度上说,这很有挑战性。

Original English

David Solomon: It is challenging from kind.

主持人: 你只需要接受被起诉。

Original English

主持人: You just have to be okay with getting sued

David Solomon: 很多。

Original English

David Solomon: a lot

David Solomon: 一直如此。嗯,你知道,这很有趣。我们有一家公司刚刚上市,他们说:“我们可能会被起诉。”我说:“你当然会被起诉。你是上市公司。这是美国。”你在说什么?嗯,所以我同意。我非常同意并购方面的情况,除了,嗯,目前联邦贸易委员会(FTC)对这些事情的立场尚不明确。

Original English

David Solomon: all the time. Um, you know, it's funny. We had a company that just went public and they're like, "We might get sued." I was like, "Of course you're going to get sued. You're public. This is America." Like, what are you talking about? Um, so I agree. I agree a lot on on the M&A front except with the uh kind of exception that like it's not clear uh the FTC uh kind of position on these things yet and so far

Ben Horowitz: 是的,尤其是在大型科技公司,即使是小型科技公司,他们也一直非常激进。嗯,所以我认为并购会发生,但它可能更多地以知识产权交易的形式发生,而不是传统的并购。嗯,我希望不是这样,但那可能是情况。然后,是的,看,我认为我们这个领域会有很多IPO。所以我认为有些是出于必要,因为公司增长太快了。我们有很多公司,嗯,比如在不到一年的时间里从零增长到超过一亿美元。嗯,有些在不到一年的时间里从零增长到超过十亿美元。所以我们以前从未见过这种情况。嗯,然后与AI相关的推论是,嗯,领先优势不再像以前那样了。所以在我整个技术生涯中,以及在整个软件历史上,有一个叫做“神话般的月人”(mythical man month)的东西。神话般的月人的意思是,你知道,九个女人不能在一个月内生一个孩子。嗯,所以你不能,如果你是谷歌,你不能投入一千名软件工程师在一个产品上,然后消灭一家初创公司,因为你只能用七八个人来构建那个产品,一旦他们搞清楚了,他们就有了领先优势,你就会在很长一段时间内落后。但在AI领域,情况并非如此。嗯,所以有了AI,如果你有数据,你知道,特别是专有数据,并且你有足够的GPU,你几乎可以解决任何问题。这简直是魔法。嗯,但这意味你可以用钱来解决问题。嗯,这在科技领域我们以前从未有过。所以我认为这实际上会推动很多IPO,因为人们会希望上市并获得资本来继续竞争,嗯,因为这确实是必要的。你不能只是坐享其成的领先优势。嗯,所以这将是非常激动人心的一年。

Original English

Ben Horowitz: yeah especially on big tech even on like small tech they've been very very aggressive um so I think M&A will happen but it may happen more in the form of IP transactions and that kind of thing than as a traditional M&A. Um I hope not, but but that that may be the case. And then yeah, look, I I think there's going to be a lot of IPOs coming out of our world. So I think there's going to be some out of necessity that the companies are growing so fast. We have so many companies uh like went zero to over hundred million dollars in less than a year. Um some zero to over a billion dollars in less than a year. So which like we've never seen that before. And uh and then the kind of correlary to that in AI is that um leads aren't what they once were. So for my whole life in technology and for the whole history of software, there was this thing called the mythical man month. And the way the mythical man month, you know, nine women cannot have a baby in a month. Uh, and so you can't just if you're Google, you can't just put a thousand software engineers on a product and wipe out a startup because you can only build that product with say seven or eight people and once they figured it out, they've got that lead and you're going to have to, you know, you're going to be behind for a long time. That's not true uh with AI. Um so with AI uh if you have data you know particularly proprietary data and you have enough GPUs you can solve like almost any problem. It is magic. Uh but it means that you can throw money at the problem. Uh and we've never had that in tech. And so I think that that's actually going to drive a lot of IPOs because people are going to want to get out and have the capital to continue to compete uh because it's really necessary. You don't just have a lead you can sit on. Uh so so it's going to be a very exciting year. I think

AI与加密货币政策

主持人: 你之前提到了联邦贸易委员会。我知道你和Mark在华盛顿特区花的时间比以往任何时候都多。嗯,你最关注的政策议程有哪些?为什么你认为现在比以往任何时候都更重要?

Original English

主持人: you you were talking about the FTC earlier. I know you and Mark are spending a lot more time in DC than you ever have. Um you know what are some of Chris and Chris? Yeah. Um you know what are some of the policy uh you know agendas you're most focused on and and why do you think this is you know more important now than it's ever been? Well,

Ben Horowitz: 第一个议程是加密货币,因为我们当时认为,现在也仍然认为,加密货币是一项极其重要的技术。嗯,它不仅是我们所见过的金融技术领域最深刻的突破,而且也是社会运作方式的真正突破。所以从互联网上的产权如何运作,到,你知道,对于那些创作者贡献大部分价值的事物,正确的架构是什么,正确的商业架构是什么,什么是真正的利益相关者资本主义,这些都是可以通过加密货币解决的问题。所以我们认为它非常重要,对社会进步非常重要,可以避免我们陷入共产主义之类的境地。嗯,它被上一届政府完全禁止了,但不是通过法律程序,不是通过立法程序,而只是通过纯粹的意志,你知道,我们会说是政府的权力滥用,包括像“去银行化”这样的技术。我们公司收到了威尔斯通知(Wells notices),这在一家私人公司中我以前从未见过。所以这只是政府对这个国家的一个行业,一个技术行业的攻击。所以我们当时想,好吧,我们必须介入并为此努力。嗯,所以第一件事是《天才法案》(Genius Act)和《稳定币法案》(Stable Coin Bill),它们已经通过并成为法律,我们对此非常自豪。我们认为更重要的第二个法案是《清晰法案》(Clarity Act),也被称为市场结构法案,它确立了,这对这项技术来说是如此必要,因为你有这些代币,它们可以代表宝可梦卡,可以代表股票证书,可以代表美元,嗯,但没有规则来规定这个代币是哪一种,而拜登政府(Biden administration)的做法是,一切都是证券,以至于他们起诉艺术家,比如“哦,我画了一幅画,我制作了一个NFT。”“哦,你出售了一个证券。”这太疯狂了。嗯,所以我们现在正在努力通过这个法案,嗯,我们围绕它发生了一些戏剧性的事情,我不会评论,但这确实存在。第二个真正重要的是AI。所以,你知道,就像我认为汽车或电力一样,对于这些新技术,人们会有点恐慌,嗯,因为它们确实有很大的影响,它们会改变世界,特别是对于AI,嗯,你知道,有些呼声来自内部,人们真的试图恐吓民众,有时是为了实现监管俘获和其他目的。

Original English

Ben Horowitz: The first one was crypto because um you know we we thought then and we continue to think crypto is an extremely important technology. Um it's kind of uh you know not not just the kind of most profound breakthrough in kind of financial technology that we've seen but a real breakthrough in um just how society works. So everything from you know how do property rights work on on the internet you know like uh you know how what what is the right architecture for things that where uh creatives um contribute most of the value what's the right business architecture what is stakeholder capitalism really um these are all things that that get solved with crypto so we thought it was so important and so important for the advance of society and to not have us like descend into communism and these kinds of things. Uh and it got completely banned by the last administration, but not through a legal process, not through a legislative process, but just through like sheer will and you know, we'd say abuse of power of the of the government, including techniques like debanking. Our company got wells notices um which I've never seen before in a private company. So just an attack from the government on uh an industry, a technology industry in this country. And so we were like, well, we've got to get in and work on that. And um so the first thing was the uh Genius Act and the Stable Coin Bill, which passed and is now law and we're very proud of that. The second one which we think is the more important bill is the Clarity Act which is also known as market structure which um kind of establishes and it's such a necessary thing for this technology because you have these tokens that can represent Pokemon card that can rep represent a stock certificate that can represent a dollar um and there were no rules to say well which one is this token and the approach of the Biden administration was everything's a security to the point where they sued artists for like, oh, I painted a picture and I made an NFT. Oh, you sold a security. Like that that crazy. Uh, so this one we're trying to get past right now and uh we've had some drama around it which I'm not going to comment on, but uh that's a thing. The second one that's really important is AI. So uh you know like with I think with the automobile or with electricity uh with these new technologies people uh kind of freak out about them um because they they do have big impact they are going to change the world and with AI in particular uh you know there's some of the calls are coming from within inside the house where people are really trying to kind of scare the population sometimes to achieve regulatory capture and other things.

Ben Horowitz: 但如果你禁止这项技术,有些人正在呼吁这样做,或者禁止或侵犯人们进行数学运算的能力,这也是很多人正在呼吁的,那么我认为我们肯定会把AI的权利输给中国,这将带来巨大的百年影响。嗯,所以我们正在努力保护的关键是,第一,模型就是模型。它是一个模型。它是一个数学模型。它预测事物。它不像一个有知觉的生物。也许我们会弄清楚如何做到这一点。我们现在还不知道如何做到这一点。所以,它不是有知觉的。嗯,它只是一个模型。嗯,所以,我们试图说不要监管数学。嗯,监管数学的应用。所以,如果有人使用AI闯入银行,或者,你知道,偷你的钱,或者,你知道,制造一个机器人来射杀某人,那么那是违法的。嗯,但技术本身不应该是违法的。嗯,然后,现在最紧迫的问题是,嗯,每个州都想制定自己的AI法律,这基本上会使新公司无法创新,因为你无法遵守来自50个州的不同法律。所以我们正在努力解决这个问题。嗯,紧随其后的是版权如何处理的问题。嗯,你是否可以在受版权保护的作品上建立统计模型,而不是复制受版权保护的作品,而只是建立一个关于它的模型,以便软件变得更智能。嗯,我们认为这非常重要,因为中国根本不尊重版权,他们甚至不尊重复制,更不用说建立统计模型了,如果我们不能训练所有数据,不能训练完整数据,我们的AI就会变得更弱。所以这些是我们正在努力推进的主要事情。

Original English

Ben Horowitz: But if you ban the technology, which some people are calling for, uh, or ban or kind of infringe people's ability to do mathematics, which is something that a lot of people are calling for, um, then I think we're definitely going to lose the AI rights to China, which has like massive, you know, hundred-year implications. Uh, and so the key things we're trying to protect are one, the model is the model. It is a model. It's a mathematical model. It predicts things. It's not like a uh sentient being. Like maybe we'll figure out how to do that. We don't know how to do that yet. So, it's not sentient. Um it's just a model. Uh so, we're trying to say don't regulate math. Um regulate the applications of that math. So, if somebody uses AI to break into a bank or um you know, steal your money or uh you know, make a robot that that uh shoots somebody, then that's illegal. Um but the technology itself shouldn't be illegal. Uh and then there's uh the the kind of most pressing one right now is um every state wants to have their own set of AI laws which will basically make it impossible for new companies to innovate because you can't comply with 50 different laws from 50 different states. So we're trying to get that done. Um, kind of shortly following that, there's an issue of how copyrights are treated. Um, and can you build a statistical model over copyrighted work, not reproduce the copyrighted work, but just build a model about it so that the kind of software becomes smarter. Um, we think that's very important because China absolutely doesn't respect copyrights even. They don't respect just copying it. uh let alone building a statistical model and we're going to have kind of a weaker uh AI if we can't train on all the data, can't train on the complete data. So those are the main things that we're trying to push forward.

AI如何改变企业运营与客户服务

主持人: 太棒了。你知道,我在高盛工作期间,非常明显的一点是公司以客户为中心,我知道1GS是你们关注的一个重点。嗯,我很好奇AI是如何改变你们内部工作方式以及如何为客户提供更好服务的?

Original English

主持人: Awesome. You know, one of the things that that was very evident to me during my time at at Goldman was how you know client centric the firm was and I know 1GS was a big kind of focus of yours. Um I'm curious how AI is changing the way you guys both work internally and and also how you're delivering, you know, better for clients. Sure. Well, the I

David Solomon: 当然。嗯,我的意思是,公司的业务就是服务我们的客户,所以,你知道,几十年来,技术一直在提高生产力。高盛是一家专业服务公司,充满了高效率的人才,技术一直在改变他们工作的方式,发展他们工作的方式,使他们更具影响力,让他们能够扩展他们影响的范围和足迹。嗯,你知道,这项技术无疑是这种加速的又一次。嗯,你知道,以最简单的形式来说,这是一种广泛的过度简化,所以请以此看待。我们关注两件事。第一,我们有很多聪明人。这些是工具和应用程序。我们正在努力将它们交到他们手中,让他们能够访问这些工具、模型和应用程序。嗯,这样他们就可以试验它们,玩转它们,弄清楚在日常工作中,他们如何为客户执行任务,做他们正在做的事情,从而提高生产力,增强能力,产生更大的影响。嗯,我们擅长这个。我们以前做过。我们的人也很擅长。嗯,这需要时间,但我们知道如何做到这一点,我们正在这样做,你知道,这确实受到我们如何获得最好的工具、最好的模型、最好的应用程序的限制,顺便说一句,还要获得监管批准,因为我们必须处理我们接触和做的所有事情中的监管限制。这对我们来说是一个巨大的障碍。我们不是一家可以随便说“哦,这太棒了。我们试试看”的公司。在尝试任何事情之前,我们必须有一个巨大的流程。但我们知道如何做到这一点。我们正在这样做,这正在提高我们员工的生产力,而且你看到了实时采纳,这确实在加速。作为CEO,对我来说更有趣的是,这项技术使我们能够真正审视一个大型企业中的基本运营流程,并完全重新构想它们,使它们自动化并提高效率。这不仅仅是为了减少人员或降低成本而做这些事情,而是为了利用这些节省下来的资金,为我们提供更多能力,投资于我们受限制的业务增长领域。所以我们不能随心所欲地花钱,随心所欲地亏钱。我们每年都必须对我们花了多少钱,赚了多少钱,以及我们产生了什么样的回报负责。

Original English

David Solomon: mean firm is the firm's business is serving our clients and so I you know I technology has for decades and decades and decades been making productive people more productive. Goldman Sachs is a professional services firm filled with productive people that are very productive and technology has been changing the way they work, evolving the way they work, making them more consequential, allowing them to expand the scope and the footprint of what they impact. Um, and you know, this technology is another acceleration of that for sure. Um, you know, in the in the simplest form and and this is a a a a broad oversimplification, so please take it as such. There are two things that we're focused on. One, we've got lots of smart people. These are tools and applications. We're trying to get them into their hands and give them access to them and access to models and access to applications. Um, so that they can experiment with them, play with them, figure out how on a day-to-day basis is they're executing for clients and doing the things they're doing, they can be more productive, more powerful, have more impact. Um, we're good at this. We've done this before. Our people are good at it. Um it takes time but we we know how to do this and we're doing it and you know it's really constrained by how we get the best tools, the best models, the best applications, get them by the way regulatory cleared because we have to deal with regulatory constraints and everything we touch and we do. That's a huge barrier for us. We're just not a company that can say oh this is great. Let's try it. We have to have a huge process before we can try anything. But we know how to do that. We're doing that and that is that is expanding the productivity of our people and and you see real time uptake on that that's really accelerating. The more interesting thing to me as the CEO is that this technology allows us to really look at fundamental operating processes on a massive enterprise and completely reimagine them to automate them and make them more efficient. Not just simply for the benefit of doing them with less people or with less costs, but for the benefit of taking some of that savings and giving us more capacity to invest in growth areas of the business where we're constraint. And so we don't have the ability to just spend as much money as we want and lose as much money as we want. We actually have to be held accountable every year to how much money how much money we spend and how much money we make and what kind of a return we generate.

主持人: 谢谢,通常不会永远持续下去。

Original English

主持人: Thanks for generally don't last forever.

David Solomon: 不,它们不会永远持续下去。但有趣的是,有些公司已经证明它们可以持续10到15年,在这段时间里,你部署资本的方式的责任可以推迟很长一段时间。我们每年都必须审视它。所以我想说,在过去几年里,我们一直受到限制,去年我们花了60亿美元在技术上。我本想花80亿。但是如果我花了80亿,我们的回报率会低几百个基点。你知道吗?我们不能那样做。

Original English

David Solomon: No, they don't last forever. But they actually interestingly there are companies that have proven that they can last for 10-15 years where the accountability on the way you're deploying your capital is put off for a long period of time. We have to look at it every year. So I would say in the last few years we've been constrained just simply we spent last year we spent $6 billion on technology. I would have loved to spend eight. Okay. But if I spent eight our returns would have been hundreds of basis points lower. And you know what? We couldn't do that.

David Solomon: 当然。现在,如果我们能够通过重新构想流程,实际找到20亿美元的效率,那么我就可以花80亿,最终获得相同的回报。所以我们制定了一个计划,我们称之为1GS 3.0,我们选择了公司中的六个特定流程,我们说我们将努力彻底重新构想它们。我们还没有公开说明这如何改变劳动力,这创造了多少产能,但这非常重要。而且不仅仅只有六个。这只是前六个。所以,这是市场向前发展的原因之一。我认为这个机会是巨大的,但这很难。这很难,因为你要求人们放弃他们的“帝国”,以不同的方式管理他们的“帝国”。这必须自上而下驱动,而且很难,但我们将取得很大进展。所以这些是两个简化,但这些是两个重要的方面,我想总结一下。

Original English

David Solomon: Sure. Now if we can actually find $2 billion of efficiency around reimagining processes then I can spend eight and wind up with the same returns. So we we laid out we actually called it 1GS 3.0 a program where we picked six specific processes in the firm and we said we are going to do the work to really completely reimagine them. We have not put out publicly how that changes workforce, how much capacity that creates, but it's super significant. And it's not that there are only six. These are just the first six. So, this is one of the reasons why the market's running forward. I think this opportunity is huge, but this is hard. This is hard because you're asking people to go kind of take away their empire and do their empire differently. It's got to be driven top down and uh and it's hard, but we're we're going to make a lot of progress. So those are two simplification but those are two big things what I like to sum

主持人: Ben,你有什么要补充的吗?你认为这项技术在企业中会如何普及,以及未来5到10年你最乐观的是什么?

Original English

主持人: anything Ben you you'd add to that just where do you sort of see the proliferation of this technology in the enterprise and what are you most optimistic for in the next I don't know 5 to 10 years

Ben Horowitz: 嗯,我认为由于David提到的原因,我们才刚刚开始在企业中应用这项技术。嗯,你知道,在一家大型现有公司中改变人员和流程等等,无论技术是什么,都是复杂的。

Original English

Ben Horowitz: well I think that for kind of the reasons David cited like we're at the very very beginning in the enterprise um you know like changing people and processes and so forth in a in a big existing company is no matter what the technology is is complicated

Ben Horowitz: 嗯,你知道,在我们公司,如你所知,我们正在采取非常积极的方法,首先自动化所有人们做但不喜欢做的事情,或者,你知道,那不是工作中最好玩的部分。我们还把所有硬数据都放到了Databricks数据湖中,所以我们可以基本上问任何关于公司或投资组合的问题。客户支持方面做得非常出色。

Original English

Ben Horowitz: Um you know in our firm as you know uh we are kind of taking very aggressive approach to kind of first automating all the things people do and don't like to do or you know it's not like the funnest part of the job. We've also kind of gotten all of hard data in a Databricks data lake and so we can ask you know basically any question about the firm or the portfolio. customer support for it works fantastic.

David Solomon: 你知道,AI驱动的投资将会非常非常有趣,因为,你知道,模型是基于现有事实运作的,而投资的特点之一是,有时最大的变化以及你必须思考投资组合的方式,来自于完全新颖和意想不到的事情。它不能被纳入模型,不能是过去的东西。

Original English

David Solomon: You know, a AI gentic investing is going to be very very interesting because you know models work on the facts that are available and one of the things about investing is sometimes the biggest changes and the way you have to think about investing a portfolio comes from things that are completely new and unexpected. It can't be incorporated in a model can't be something from the past. Yeah.

David Solomon: 不能是过去的东西。所以底线是,一旦它发生,就可以迅速纳入模型,模型可以非常迅速地加载,但仍然,你知道,你从一个地方开始,所以,我非常感兴趣地想看看它如何运作,而且,你看,你必须思考为什么只有少数人,只有少数人作为投资者在很长一段时间内表现如此出色,但你遇到的人却表现不佳。所以如果模型是基于那些表现不佳的人所拥有的信息,那么看看是否会产生不同的结果将会很有趣。

Original English

David Solomon: Can't be something from the past. So the bottom line is once it happens that it can be quickly incorporated models and models can load very quickly but still you know you start from a place and so it's I I'm I'm really interested to see how it works and look one of the things you've got to you've got to wonder why there are handful of people there are a handful of people who have so outperformed as investors over a long period of time but you encounter speaking you know people underperform And so if the models are based on the information that the people are underperforming all have, it's going to be interesting to see whether something different comes out of it.

轻松时刻:最喜欢的DJ

主持人: 太棒了。我想我们时间不多了,但也许最后一个额外问题。嗯,最喜欢的DJ。不要自荐。

Original English

主持人: Awesome. I think we're running out of time, but um maybe one last bonus question. Um favorite DJ. No, no self-nominations.

David Solomon: 今天最喜欢的DJ?

Original English

David Solomon: Favorite DJ today?

主持人: 是的。或者可以是过去的。

Original English

主持人: Yeah. Or it could be in the past.

David Solomon: John Summit

Original English

David Solomon: John Summit.

主持人: 好的。

Original English

主持人: Okay.

David Solomon: 我的意思是,John Summit作为一个DJ正在做非常非常酷的事情。他是一个非常有趣的年轻人,充满活力,他正在很大程度上改变大型俱乐部浩室DJ的运作方式。我认为他做得非常出色。

Original English

David Solomon: I mean John Summit is John Summit is doing really really cool things as a DJ. He's incredibly interesting young guy that's got a lot of energy and he's he's evolving very much the context of how kind of big club house DJs do what they do. I think I think he's doing a great job.

Ben Horowitz: Ben,我将坚守我的领域,那就是过去和嘻哈DJ。我要说DJ Jazzy Jeff。嗯,他非常被低估,因为他的搭档Fresh Prince后来成了Will Smith。嗯,但DJ Jazzy Jeff是一位非常非常棒的全能DJ。是的。太棒了。非常感谢你们。

Original English

Ben Horowitz: Ben, I'm going to stay in my lane, which is the past and hip-hop DJs. I'm going to say DJ Jazzy Jeff. Um, who is a like very underrated because his partner, the Fresh Prince, became Will Smith. Um, but DJ Jazzy Jeff is a great great alltime Egypt. Yeah. Awesome. Thank you guys so much for doing this.

David Solomon: 谢谢你,David

Original English

David Solomon: Thank you, David.

主持人: 太棒了。

Original English

主持人: Awesome.

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

公司/组织: Goldman Sachs, Andreessen Horowitz

媒体/书籍: The Partnership

关键字: business-scale capital-raising macro-economic-environment ai-regulation venture-capital