Host: Vina Nadjibulla is the Vice President of Research and Strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, and she joins me to talk about the latest. Vina, great to have you here.

Vina Nadjibulla: Thank you so much for the invitation.

Host: Alright. Let's talk. Prime Minister Modi and Prime Minister Carney have agreed to fast-track negotiations towards a Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement. Fancy word for essentially a free trade agreement. Help us understand. What would this entail?

Vina Nadjibulla: Yeah. So this is a really significant development. It's one of the critical outcomes of Prime Minister Carney's visit. And it says that Canada and India will negotiate a comprehensive free trade agreement before the end of the year. So that will essentially unlock about 30 billion additional dollars in trade. That is the goal that the two prime ministers have agreed on, doubling our current trade in before 2030. Of course, it would also create a more predictable environment for our businesses. It will reduce tariffs for certain exporters. So it is a big deal. We'll see whether they succeed, because it's quite an ambitious timeline to try to negotiate this within one year.

Host: Help us understand in the scope of things, would this be the first comprehensive trade deal between the two countries?

Vina Nadjibulla: Yes. And of course, a lot of your viewers would know that we've been trying to negotiate a free trade agreement with India for more than a decade, and the discussions had started and slowed and paused. And so it's never been an easy process. There have been some sectoral agreements, including on this visit. There have been a number of MOU agreed on critical minerals. In particular, there's been a strategic partnership on energy. Agreed. And we can talk a little bit more about that. But in terms of the CPA, this comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement, I think what's important to note is that we are in a new moment, India, just in the last two years, finalized free trade agreements with the European Union, with the UK, with New Zealand. So they are now approaching this differently because they have to diversify their trading partnerships just like Canada. So even though we have a history here, we have to see this as a new opportunity because of the Trump effect, so to speak. The Trump Accelerator is making both India and Canada approach this agreement with a lot more urgency than in the past.

Host: Well, let's talk about energy. As you mentioned, a Canadian company signed a long term deal based in Saskatchewan. The Premier, Saskatchewan's premier, was there as well. This is to supply uranium to India. How significant is this deal?

Vina Nadjibulla: Very significant. So this is a ten year supply agreement for about 2.6 billion. And it's the anchor piece of a broader strategic partnership on energy that the two sides agreed, which would also cover critical minerals LNG, LPG as well as hydrogen. So India of course is growing rapidly. It is the fastest growing major economy. And they are very energy thirsty. In fact, about a third of all of new energy demands by 2040 will be coming from India. And India's energy demand will be basically the same as China and Southeast Asia combined. So there's a lot of opportunity for Canada, which is also trying to diversify our energy exports away from just being reliant on the US and into Asia. So this deal in some ways is kind of the the proof point, the fact that there can be these deals. It's ten years. So it's meant to build trust and open up other opportunities in the energy sector.

Host: Just to clarify, as you mentioned, when we say LNG, we're talking about liquefied natural gas, LPG, petroleum gas. All right. Let's talk education. There are obviously a large number of Indian students studying here in Canada. Did education come up in talks?

Vina Nadjibulla: It did. So education has been a big part of our relationship with India. In fact, about two thirds of our trade with India is in services, and majority of that is because of the international students that have been studying here in Canada, but 400,000 of them, which is very large number. But I think what's notable about this particular visit and 13 MOUs that were agreed between Canadian universities and various Indian institutions, is the fact that they're now looking beyond just international students. India's interested in opening international campuses in India. They're interested in joint research projects in talent development. So I think the focus now moving forward will be around joint talent strategy, especially in AI, in STEM. So science, technology sectors, and I think that is a really new development. We had 21 university presidents from Canada visiting India just in the beginning of February. And as part of that, obviously they made a number of agreements, and those agreements were what the Prime Minister was able to witness in Mumbai as part of this new talent strategy that was launched and agreements from UBC, University of British Columbia, McGill and others. And I think it's notable that the focus is very much on kind of the economy of the future, on technology and innovation and AI.

Host: Before we sort of move on to, you know, the impacts here in Canada from this from this recent trip. I want to get a better understanding education aside energy aside, anything else from this trip that stood out to you?

Vina Nadjibulla: Yeah. So one other element is that the Prime Minister really wanted to say that this is not just a reset in the diplomatic relation, but an expansion and elevation of the relationship, and that he wants to have a full spectrum partnership, one that covers the economy and of course, within that energy and education, but also looking at the defense sector. Minister of defence was on this trip with him because there is an interest now as part of our defence industrial strategy, to do more with India, because India is also spending a lot more on its defence. There's also an interest to look at sectors like space aerospace, which we haven't traditionally done anything with India. So I think the Prime Minister believes that the economic opportunity and the partnership opportunity are enormous. He's saying that India is going to be kind of the next big power. It's the fourth largest economy now. It will be the third largest economy within the decade. So from his perspective, if you use the hockey analogy, it's like skating to where the puck will be. He sort of feels like the next big economic opportunities in India. And Canada has to be at the table because all of our other partners the European Union, Australia, Japan, the US, they all now have preferential trade agreements with India. So Canada is a little bit late to the game.

Host: I'm going to use another analogy. When we talk about reset. Reset has been used to sort of talk about these conversations. In your view, has that button pressed the reset button? Do you look at this trip as success as a successful one?

Vina Nadjibulla: Well, I mean, I think if you listen to what the Prime Minister was saying in Mumbai and in New Delhi, you would certainly come away with that conclusion that not only do we have a reset, but we really do have a new moment. In fact, the Prime Minister said that his trip marks the end of the challenging period in the relationship and the beginning of a new partnership between two confident and complementary economies. Now, all of that sounds good, but of course, you and I have been here in Canada the last three days, and the headlines here have been very much dominated by the same challenging issue of foreign interference and transnational repression. So it doesn't feel like we've turned the page here in Canada. But if you were in Delhi and Mumbai and I've been in touch with all my colleagues and I'm flying there tonight, it does feel like it's a new moment. So I think there is that tension. And the government and the Prime Minister will have to manage that tension.

Host: Well, let's talk foreign interference. Obviously, Canada has accused India of foreign interference in the past. Yet Mr. Carney's government now says there's no evidence of any foreign interference by India. To what do you attribute this change to?

Vina Nadjibulla: Well, I think in fairness to the government, both the Minister of Public Safety and the Minister of Foreign Affairs have noted that foreign interference is an ongoing concern, and that they're raising this issue with India. In the joint statement that came out issued by the two prime ministers, there is a sentence that addresses this issue. So I think it's not that the issue of foreign interference has gone away. But you're absolutely right. There is a change in focus to not just talk about foreign interference, but also to talk about this economic opportunity and potential. So the government wants to deal with this on kind of two separate tracks, one on law enforcement and security, one on the totality of the relationship with an emphasis on the economy. But again, there is a tension, and we haven't yet heard directly from the Prime Minister on this. He hasn't taken questions from journalists. So I think there's still a lot of communicating that the government has to do to explain this.

Host: In terms of the talks that had have happened outside of that sentence, did any of this come up in the talks at all?

Vina Nadjibulla: Well, so we don't know what happened in the actual meetings because there were obviously behind closed doors. But in the various speeches and public messages. So the the Mumbai speech that the Prime Minister gave to the big business audience, as well as in the statement that he gave in the presence of Prime Minister Modi, the issue really did not come up. It was focused much more on kind of the partnership, including on defence and security. So there was a mention that there is now this security mechanism that would allow the two countries to address issues of mutual concern. So one would imagine that's where foreign interference fits in. But it wasn't a big focus of the public messaging on the trip.

Host: Vina, given everything we've seen over the past few days, what do you expect the road for India-Canada relations to look like going forward?

Vina Nadjibulla: Well, Prime Minister Carney has certainly set up an ambitious agenda for the road ahead, including with this Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement negotiations. He's also invited Prime Minister Modi to come to Canada. He wants to see a lot more progress on the energy side. So I think there is an ambitious agenda, but a lot will depend on the progress on the security and law enforcement side as well. We, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, together with the Angus Reid Institute, did a survey of Canadian public opinion, which the report came out just this week. And what we noted was that while Canadians understand the pragmatic reason for this economic reset, they are still very cautious about approaching India and the favorability rate of India. Sort of the level of trust in India is still very low because of all of the foreign interference coverage. So I think the road ahead will involve quite a bit of trust building and communicating and making sure that the political reset and the momentum and the economic opportunity is met with the change in the public perception, so that there isn't this big gap in how Canadians, a lot of Canadians understand what's happening. And I think the vision that the Prime Minister has rightly said around the economic re-engagement with India.

Host: Vina, we are going to have to leave it there. Really appreciate your insights on this. Thank you so much.

Vina Nadjibulla: My pleasure. Thank you.