埃隆·马斯克回顾X的三年:从拯救言论自由到Grokipedia与万物的未来 All-In Podcast 2025-11-01

X 算法的迭代与 Grok 的整合

Jason:我们开始吧。这周我们想尝试一些新东西。每周我都会有点不高兴,有些事会让我心烦,Sacks。当这种情况发生时,我就会大喊“Disgraziato”(意大利语,意为“可耻的”)。于是,我买了这个域名,纯粹是为了自娱自乐。但我并非唯一一个对世界上发生的事情感到极度厌恶的人。所以这周,我们将在 All-In 播客上推出一个新栏目:“可耻之角”(Disgraciato Corner)。

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Jason: Let's get started. We wanted to try something new this week. Every week, I get a little upset. Things perturb me, Sacks, and when it does, I just yell and scream, "Disgraziato." And so, I bought the domain name for no reason other than my own amusement. But, I'm not alone in my absolute disgust at what's going on in the world. So this week we're going to bring out a new feature here on the All-In podcast: Disgraciato Corner.

Chamath:我的“可耻之角”要颁给 Jason Calacanis 和 Pete Buttigieg。在采访的前30秒里,他们就在比较各自在国际特赦组织(Amnesty International)不同时期工作的“美德信号”点数。他们实际上没有带来任何改变,没有在世界上取得任何进展,但却收集了一个徽章,用来凌驾于他人之上。

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Chamath: My Disgraciato Corner goes to Jason Calcanis and Pete Buttigieg, where in the first 30 seconds of the interview they compared virtue signaling points about how each one worked at various moments at Amnesty International. Literally affecting zero change, making no progress in the world, but collecting a badge that they used to hold over other people.

Host:我注意到,如果你现在在 X 上对任何东西表现出兴趣,比如你点击了它,天哪,要是你点赞了什么,算法就会盯上你,它会给你更多那样的内容。它会给你多得多。

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Host: But I've noticed if you demonstrate interest in anything on X now, if you click on it, god forbid you like something, man, the algorithm is on it. It will give you more of that. It will give you a lot more.

Elon:是的。我们确实遇到了一个问题,现在仍然有点问题。我们发现并解决了一个重要的漏洞,这个漏洞导致网络内的帖子无法显示。基本上,如果你关注了某人,你却看不到他们的帖子。这显然是个大漏洞,一个主要的漏洞。然后,算法可能没有充分考虑到你只是在某个内容上停留了一下。但如果你与它互动,它就会变得非常疯狂。所以就像 David 说的,如果你收藏、回复或以某种方式参与其中,你就会收到大量同样的东西。

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Elon: Yes. So, we did have an issue. We still have somewhat of an issue where there was an important bug that was figured out and solved over the weekend which caused in-network posts to not be shown. So basically if you followed someone you wouldn't see their posts. It's obviously a big bug, a major bug. Then the algorithm was not probably taking into account if you just dwelt on something. But if you interacted with it, it would go hog wild. So if you, as David said, were to favorite, reply or engage with it in some way, it is going to get you a torrent of that same thing.

Host:是的,它就像是过度修正了。它对任何互动的增益调得太高了。你只要互动一下,就会收到铺天盖地的内容。就像是“哦,你尝了一口?我们要给你上三份,用食物漏斗硬塞给你。”

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Host: Yeah. It just it's like it was giving you if you take a you'd have like it was just going too far. Obviously it was overcorrecting. It had too much gain on it. It just turned up the gain way too high on any interaction, you would then get a torrent of that. It's like, "Oh you had a taste of it. We're going to give you three helpings. We're going to force you with the food funnel."

Host:而这些现在我猜都是用 Grok(xAI 公司开发的一款人工智能聊天机器人)来完成的吧?所以它不像旧的硬编码算法了,还是说它在用 Grok?

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Host: And and that's all being done I assume it's all being done with Grok now. So it's not like the old hardcoded algorithm or is it using Grok?

Elon:现在的情况是,我们正在逐步删除旧 Twitter 的启发式算法。问题在于,当你删除这些启发式算法时,你会发现一个漏洞正好掩盖了另一个漏洞。所以,当你修复了一边的漏洞,就像那个关于互联网的梗图,一个非常复杂的机器,却靠一根小木棍支撑着。

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Elon: Well, what's happening is that we're gradually deleting the legacy Twitter heuristics. Now, the problem is that as you delete these heuristics, it turns out one heuristic, one bug was covering for the other bug. And so, when you delete one side of the bug, it's like that meme with the internet where there's this very complicated machine and there's a tiny little wooden stick that's keeping it going.

Grokipedia:构建新一代信息基础设施

Elon:我们将增加一个功能,让你可以拥有一个经过筛选的“关注”标签页。因为问题是,如果你关注的一些人比其他人发帖更频繁,那就会让“关注”标签页很难用。所以我们将增加一个选项,让你可以选择让“关注”标签页被筛选。Grok 会判断你的朋友们发布的最有趣的内容是什么,然后我们会在“关注”标签页中向你展示这些。

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Elon: Now, something we're going to be adding is the ability to have a curated following tab. Because the problem is like if you follow some people and they're maybe a little more prolific than others. That makes the following tab hard to use. So we're going to add an option where you can have the following tab be curated. So Grok will say what are the most interesting things posted by your friends and then we'll show you that in the following tab.

Elon:真正巨大的变化是,Grok 将会真正阅读发布到平台上的所有内容。平台上每天大约有1亿条帖子。所以每天有1亿条内容。Grok 将会开始阅读它认为在1亿条中最顶尖的1000万条,并真正地阅读、理解、分类,然后将它们与用户匹配。这是人类永远无法完成的工作。一旦这个功能扩展得相当好,我们就会把每天全部1亿条都加进去。所以它将真正地阅读1亿条内容,并从每天1亿条帖子中,向你展示它认为对你最有趣的内容。

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Elon: The really big change is where Grok literally reads everything that's posted to the platform. There's about 100 million posts per day. So it's 100 million pieces of content per day. Grok is going to start off reading what Grok thinks are the top 10 million of the 100 million and will actually read them, understand them, categorize them and match them to users. This is not a job humans could ever do. And then once that is scaling reasonably well, we'll add the entire 100 million a day. So it's literally going to read through a 100 million things and show you the things that it thinks out of 100 million posts per day, what are the most interesting posts to you?

Host:收购三年了,感觉怎么样?

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Host: How has it been 3 years in?

Host:三年后的收获是什么?你显然不后悔买下它。它拯救了言论自由,这很好。你似乎已经扭转了整个局面,我认为这是你使命的一个重要部分。但后来你又把它加入了 xAI,这使它作为一个数据源变得非常有价值。所以当你回首往事,你买下它的原因是为了阻止疯狂的“觉醒思想病毒”,让真相重现世界。很好,任务完成了。现在它又有了美好的未来。

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Host: Yeah. What's the takeaway? 3 years later, you obviously don't regret buying it. It's saved free speech. That was good. Seemed to have turned that whole thing around and that was I think a big part of your mission. But then you added it to xAI which makes it incredibly valuable as a data source. So when you look back on it, the reason you bought it to stop crazy woke mind virus and make truth exist in the world again. Great. Mission accomplished. And now it has this great future.

Elon:是的,我们有社区笔记(Community Notes: X 平台上一项由用户协作进行事实核查的功能),你也可以向 Grok 询问你在平台上看到的任何东西。你只需在任何 X 帖子上点击 Grok 图标,它就会为你分析和研究。所以,通过点击 Grok 图标,你可以评估那条帖子是否是真相、全部真相、毫无虚假,或者是否需要补充说明。我认为我们在言论自由以及让人们能够辨别真假、识破宣传方面取得了很大进展。

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Elon: Yeah, we've got community notes. You can also ask Grok about any anything you see on the platform. You just press the Grok icon on any X post and we'll analyze it for you. And and research it as much as you want. So you can basically have just by by tapping the Grok icon you can assess whether that post is the truth the whole truth or nothing but the truth or whether there's something supplemental or you need to be explained. So I think it I think it's actually we made a lot of progress towards freedom of speech and and and people being able to tell whether something is false or not false, you know, propaganda.

Elon:最近对 Grok 的更新,我认为在戳穿宣传方面做得非常好。我们用最新版本的 Grok 创建了 Grokipedia(Grok生成的百科全书,旨在提供比维基百科更中立和准确的信息)。我认为它不仅比维基百科更中立、更准确,而且实际上信息量也大得多。

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Elon: The recent update to Grok is actually I think very good at piercing through propaganda. And then we used that latest version of Grok to create Grokipedia, which I think is much more it's not just I think more neutral and more accurate than Wikipedia but actually has a lot more information than a Wikipedia page.

Host:你们是怎么做到的?

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Host: How did you guys how did you do this?

Elon:我们训练了一个追求最大化真理、擅长进行严谨分析的 Grok 版本。它能将任何给定的论点分解为其公理元素,评估这些公理是否可能为真、是否相互矛盾,以及结论是否最有可能从这些公理中得出。我们只是对 Grok 进行了大量的批判性思维训练。然后我们用这个版本的 Grok,让它循环处理维基百科上一百万篇最热门的文章,进行添加、修改和删除。这意味着它会研究互联网上其他公开可用的信息,纠正维基百科文章中的错误,同时增加更多的背景信息。

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Elon: We finished training on a maximally truth seeking version of Grok that is good at cogent analysis. So breaking down any given argument into its axiomatic elements, assessing whether those axioms are likely to be true, they're not contradictory, that the conclusion most likely follows from those axioms. So we just trained Grok on a lot of critical thinking. Then we took that version of Grok and said okay cycle through the million most popular articles in Wikipedia and add, modify, and delete. So that means research the rest of the internet, whatever is publicly available, and correct the Wikipedia articles and fix mistakes, but also add a lot more context.

Elon:有时宣传的本质在于,陈述的事实虽然在技术上是真实的,但并不能恰当地描绘个人或事件的全貌。

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Elon: Sometimes really the nature of the propaganda is that facts are stated that are technically true but do not properly represent a picture of the individual or event.

Host:这至关重要,因为随着时间的推移,你在维基百科上的个人简介,会慢慢变成那些被你解雇的人、在商业上被你击败的人,或是对你有怨恨的人发泄的地方。我看了我的 Grokipedia 页面,它更具代表性,篇幅长了五六倍,而且它所侧重的部分也准确得多。

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Host: This is critical because when you have a bio as we all do on Wikipedia, over time, it's just the people you fired or you beat in business or have an axe to grind. So it just slowly becomes the place where everybody who hates you then puts their information. And I looked at mine. It was so much more representative and it was five times longer, six times longer. And what it gave weight to was much more accurate. Much more accurate.

Elon:是的,这只是 0.1 版本。我认为到 1.0 版本时,它会好上十倍。但即使在早期阶段,它不仅纠正了错误,还创造了一个更准确、更真实、更丰满的人物和事件描述。

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Elon: Yes, this is version 0.1 as we show at the top. So I do think actually by the time we get to version 1.0 it'll be 10 times better. But even at this early stage, it's not just that it's correcting errors but it is creating a more accurate, realistic and fleshed out description of people and events.

Host:你认为你能让谷歌在传统搜索中降低维基百科的权重,提升 Grokipedia 的权重吗?因为很多人仍然通过搜索找到维基百科,并相信它是权威的,因为它排在第一位。

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Host: Do you think that you can take this corpus of pages now and get Google to deboost Wikipedia or boost Grokipedia in traditional search? Because a lot of people still find this and they believe that it's authoritative because it comes up number one, right? So how do we do that?

Elon:如果人们大量分享 Grokipedia 的链接,或者在他们的网站上引用它,在社交媒体上发布相关内容,或者当他们在搜索结果中看到 Grokipedia 时点击它,那么它在谷歌的排名中自然会上升。我确实给 Sundar(谷歌CEO)发了短信,因为在发布后的一天,如果你输入 Grokipedia,谷歌只会问你“你是不是想输入 Wikipedia?”

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Elon: If people share a lot of Grokipedia links or cite it on their websites or post about it on social media, or when they do a search when Grokipedia shows up they click on it, it will naturally rise in Google's rankings. I did text Sundar because even sort of a day after launch if you typed in Grokipedia Google would just say did you mean Wikipedia?

Elon:Grokipedia 将会非常成功,因为它从根本上说是一个比维基百科更优秀的产品。它是一个更好的信息来源。我们甚至还没有添加图片和视频。我们将使用 Grok Imagine 来创建视频。所以如果你想解释某件事,Grok Imagine 可以提取 Grokipedia 的文本,然后生成一个解释性视频。

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Elon: Grokipedia will succeed I think very well because it is fundamentally a superior product to Wikipedia. It is a better source of information. And we haven't even added images and video yet. We're going to add a lot of video using Grok Imagine to create videos. So, if you're trying to explain something, Grok Imagine can take the text from Grapedia and then generate an explanatory video.

回顾收购推特三年:一场拯救言论自由的战争

Host:当你将真相摆在人们面前时,他们真的会改变想法吗?还是说人们只是忽略真相,因为他们觉得自己属于某个阵营,并且希望在所有事情上都保持部落化?

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Host: Can you actually change people's minds by putting the truth in front of them or do people just take, you know, they kind of ignore the truth because they feel like they're in some sort of camp and they're like, I'm on... they want the confirmation bias and they want to stay in a camp and they want to be tribal about everything.

Elon:人们相信某些事情,仅仅因为那是他们所属群体(无论他们的政治或意识形态部落是什么)的信念,这一点非常引人注目。有些人,无论如何都会坚持他们的意识形态观点。证据可能就摆在他们面前,他们却只会像个“地平论者”。你无法向一个地平论者展示任何证据来说服他们地球是圆的,因为一切都只是一个谎言。

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Elon: It is remarkable how much people believe things simply because it is the belief of their in-group, whatever their sort of political or ideological tribe is. Some people would prefer, they will stick to whatever their ideological views are, whatever the sort of political tribal views are, no matter what. The evidence could be staring them in the face and they're just going to be a flat-earther. You know, there is no evidence that you can show to a flat earther to convince them the world's round because everything is just a lie.

Host:在 X 平台上,真相寻求导弹(truth seeking missile)已经变得非常强大,那就是在回复中@Grok并向它提问的能力。这与社区笔记相结合,现在你有了两次打击机会:社区的共识观点,然后是 Grok 的介入。

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Host: I think the ability to hit @Grok in a reply and ask it a question in the thread has really become like a truth seeking missile on the platform. That combined with community notes. Now you've got like two swings at bat. The community's consensus view and then Grok coming in.

Elon:我们希望 X 成为地球上遥遥领先的最佳真相来源。在这里,你可以听到各种各样的观点,但这些观点会受到社区笔记中人类编辑的纠正。社区笔记的精髓在于,历史上持不同意见的人们都同意某条社区笔记是正确的。

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Elon: We want X to be the best source of truth on the planet by far. And where you hear any and all points of view. But where those points of view are corrected by human editors with community notes and the essence of community notes is that people who historically disagree agree that this community note was correct.

接管之初的荒诞与浪费

Sacks:我记得,是的。Elon 当时住在我家。我们前一周聊过,他告诉我交易即将完成。于是我说:“嘿,你需要地方住吗?”他接受了。在他去 Twitter 办公室的前一天,有人向我的员工提出了一个请求:你们有多余的洗手池吗?

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Sacks: I remember. Yeah. I mean I remember... Elon was staying at my house. We had talked the week before and he told me the deal was going to close. And so, I was like, "Hey, do you need a place to stay?" And he took me up on it. And the day before he went to the Twitter office, there was a request made to my staff. Do you happen to have an extra sink?

Elon:我认为那家商店很困惑,因为我的安保团队只是要一个任何种类的洗手池。通常人们不会这么问,因为你需要一个能装进你浴室、能连接特定管道的洗手池。他们就问“你想要什么样的水龙头?”我说“不不,我只要一个洗手池。”商店很困惑我们只要一个洗手池,而不关心它连接什么。

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Elon: Well, I think the store was confused because my security team was asking for any kind of sink. Like normally people wouldn't ask for any kind of sink because you need a sink that fits in your bathroom or connects to a certain kind of plumbing. So they're like trying to ask these like well what kind of faucets do you want? That's no no I just wanted a sink. The store was confused that we just wanted a sink and didn't care what the sink connected to.

Sacks:我最喜欢的记忆之一是,我们到了那里,发现整个地方都是空的。Twitter 总部有两栋楼,其中一栋楼完全是空的。另一栋楼大概只有5%的入住率。我们都去吃东西,然后意识到在自助餐厅工作的人比在 Twitter 工作的人还多。做饭的人比吃饭的人还多。

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Sacks: One of my favorite memories was we get in there and the place is empty. The Twitter headquarters was two buildings. One of the buildings was completely and utterly empty. And the other building had like 5% occupancy. We all go get something to eat and we realize there's more people working in the cafeteria than at Twitter. There were more people making the food than eating the food.

Elon:我们发现,一顿午餐的实际成本是400美元。原价是20美元,但因为入住率只有5%,所以成本高了20倍,而他们还在做着差不多的量,收一样的钱。所以实际上,一顿午餐要400美元。

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Elon: This is where we discovered that the actual price of the lunch was $400. The original price was $20, but it was at 5% occupancy. So it was 20 times higher and they still kept making the same amount pretty much. So, effectively lunch was $400.

Elon:然后我记得走进男厕所,那里有一张桌子,上面放着女性卫生用品,每周都会更新。一盒全新的卫生棉条。我们当时就想,但这栋楼里根本没人啊。但他们没有关掉“向空楼男厕所发送新卫生棉条”的指令。所以,每周他们都会把一盒新棉条放在一个空楼里,持续了好几年。

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Elon: I remember going into the men's bathroom and there's a table with menstrual hygiene products. Refreshed every week. Tampons like a fresh box of tampons. And we're like but there's literally no one in this building. But no, they hadn't turned off the "send fresh tampons to the man's bathroom in the empty building" had not been turned off. So, every week they would put a fresh box of tampons in an empty building for years. This happened for years.

Sacks:我记得在那之后不久,你在办公室发现了一整个房间,里面装满了“#Staywoke”(保持觉醒)的T恤。

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Sacks: I remember it was shortly after that you discovered an entire room at the office that was filled with #Staywoke t-shirts.

Host:说真的,我们在最初30天里看到的浪费程度,这可是一家上市公司。所以如果你想想那些人的财务责任……有一份我们审查过的SaaS软件清单,没有一个在被使用。有些甚至从未安装过,但他们已经为此付了两年的钱。

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Host: Just to be serious about it for a second, the amount of waste that we saw there during those first 30 days, this was a publicly traded company. So if you think about the financial duty of those individuals, there was a list of SAS software we went through and none of it was being used. Some of it had never been installed and they had been paying for it for 2 years.

Elon:有数百万美元被用来支付分析行人交通的软件,这种软件使用摄像头来分析行人流量,以便找出如何缓解行人交通拥堵——在一个空无一人的大楼里。

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Elon: There was millions of dollars being paid for analysis of pedestrian like software that use cameras to analyze the pedestrian traffic to figure out where you can alleviate pedestrian traffic jams in an empty building.

Sacks:让我们谈谈言论自由方面,因为我认为这是收购 Twitter 最重要的遗产。人们记性不好,他们忘了三年前情况有多糟。首先,像特朗普总统、乔丹·彼得森、杰伊·巴塔查里亚、安德鲁·泰特这样形形色色的人物都被 Twitter 封禁了。

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Sacks: Let's talk about the free speech aspect for a second because I think that is the most important legacy of the Twitter acquisition and I think people have short memories and they forget how bad things were three years ago. First of all, you had figures as diverse as President Trump, Jordan Peterson, Jay Bhattacharya, Andrew Tate. They were all banned from Twitter.

Sacks:其次,除了封禁,还有影子封禁(shadow banning: 指社交媒体平台在不通知用户的情况下,秘密地限制其内容的可见性)。Twitter 多年来一直声称他们没有进行影子封禁,说这是偏执的保守派阴谋论。

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Sacks: Second, beyond just the bannings, there was the shadow bannings. And Twitter had claimed for years that they were not shadowbanning. This was a paranoid conservative conspiracy theorist.

Elon:所谓的“信任与安全”小组进行了非常激进的影子封禁,当然,做这种邪恶的影子封禁的自然会是这个小组。我只是觉得我们不应该有一个叫做“信任与安全”的小组。这名字简直是奥威尔式的。

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Elon: There was a very aggressive shadow banning by what was called the trust and safety group which of course naturally would be the one that is doing the nefarious shadow banning. I just think we shouldn't have a group called trust and safety. I mean this is an Orwellian name if there ever was one.

Sacks:第三点对我来说是政府勾结,政府干预。你发布了“推特文件”(Twitter Files)。以前从未有过这样的事情,你真的让调查记者去翻阅 Twitter 的邮件。他们发现 FBI 和 Twitter 的信任与安全小组之间存在广泛的勾结,FBI 有80名特工提交删除请求,他们深度参与了封禁、影子封禁和审查。

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Sacks: I think third to me was government collusion, government interference. So you released the Twitter files. Nothing like that ever been done before where you just you actually let investigative reporters go through Twitter's emails. And they found that there was extensive collusion between the FBI and the Twitter trust and safety group where it turns out the FBI had 80 agents submitting takedown requests and they were very involved in the banning, the shadow banning, the censorship.

Sacks:人们忘了审查不仅仅是关于新冠。越来越多类别的思想和观点被禁止。“内容审核”——这是审查的另一个奥威尔式委婉说法——被应用到性别甚至气候变化等类别。仇恨言论的定义在不断扩大。审查的趋势在增长,它在飞速发展,如果不是因为你决定收购 Twitter 并开放它,这种趋势本会继续下去。

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Sacks: I think people forget that the censorship wasn't just about COVID. There was a growing number of categories of thought and opinion that were being outlawed. The quote content moderation which is another Orwellian euphemism for censorship was being applied to categories like gender and even climate change. The definition of hate speech was constantly growing. This trend of censorship was growing. It was galloping and it would have continued if it wasn't, I think, for the fact that you decided to buy Twitter and opened it up.

企业治理的挑战:从特斯拉投票到OpenAI诉讼

Elon:我认为我们在上市公司治理方面存在一个根本性问题。大约一半的股市由被动指数基金控制,而它们中的大多数将决策外包给咨询公司,特别是 Glass Lewis 和 ISS(Institutional Shareholder Services: 一家为机构投资者提供代理投票建议和公司治理解决方案的公司),我称它们为“企业界的ISIS”。它们基本上就是恐怖分子。它们在这些公司中不持有任何股份。

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Elon: I do think we've got a fundamental issue with corporate governance in publicly traded companies where you've got about half of the stock market is controlled by passive index funds and most of them outsource their decision to advisory firms and particularly Glass Lewis and ISS. I call them corporate ISIS. You know, so all they do is basically just they're just terrorists. They own no stock in any of these companies.

Elon:我的担忧是,如果我要建立擎天柱(Optimus)机器人大军,我需要确保我们不会出现“终结者”那样的情景,我需要最大化机器人的安全性。为此,我感觉我需要大约25%的投票权。这足以产生强大的影响力,但又不至于在我发疯时无法被解雇。我的担忧是,创造了这支机器人大军后,却因为 ISS 和 Glass Lewis 的原因,因为政治原因而被解雇。那样我就无法确保机器人的安全了。

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Elon: My concern for the future, because this Tesla thing is called sort of compensation, but really it's not about compensation. It's just that I in order if I'm going to build up Optimus and have all these robots out there, I need to make sure we do not have a Terminator scenario and that I can maximize the safety of the robots. But I feel like I need to have something like a 25% vote. Which is enough of a vote to have a strong influence but not so much of a vote that I can't be fired if I go insane. My concern would be, you know, creating this army of robots and then being fired for political reasons because of ISS and Glass Lewis. And then I cannot ensure the safety of the robots.

Host:关于 OpenAI 的重组,有趣的是,我读了那封信,你的诉讼被排除在加州总检察长的批准之外,这意味着你的诉讼仍然有效,对吧?而且我认为它将进入陪审团审判。

View/Hide Original EnglishHost: What was interesting about the OpenAI restructuring was I read the letter and your lawsuit was excluded from the allowances of the California attorney general basically saying this thing can go through which means that your lawsuit is still out there, right? And I think it's going to go to a jury trial.

Elon:我相信这将在二月或三月进入陪审团审判。有堆积如山的证据表明,OpenAI 是作为一个开源的非营利组织创建的。这在其公司注册文件中写得清清楚楚。事实上,文件明确规定,任何高管或创始成员都不得从 OpenAI 中获得经济利益。他们完全违反了这一点。你可以用“网站时光机”看看 OpenAI 的网站,一路都是“开源非营利组织”,直到看起来能赚大钱了,才突然开始改变。

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Elon: Yes. I believe that will go to a jury trial in February or March. And then we'll see what the results are there. But there's a mountain of evidence that shows that OpenAI was created as an open source nonprofit. It's literally the exact description in the incorporation documents. In fact the incorporation documents explicitly say that no officer or founding member will benefit financially from OpenAI. And they've completely violated that. And you can just use the wayback machine and look at the website of OpenAI again open source nonprofit, open source nonprofit the whole way until it looked like wow there's a lot of money to be gained here and then suddenly it starts changing.

AI的未来:就业冲击与通往100吉瓦计算能力的道路

Host:我们在这里对工作岗位有过很多辩论。显然,将会出现工作岗位流失。你和我就此谈论了几十年。你对这个进程的速度有什么看法?

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Host: We've had a big debate about jobs here. Obviously, there's going to be job displacement. You and I have talked about it for decades. What's your take on the pace of it?

Elon:我称 AI 为“超音速海啸”。所以,这不是世界上最令人安心的描述。就像一道巨大的水墙,以比音速还快的速度移动,这就是 AI。

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Elon: Well, I call AI the supersonic tsunami. So, not the most comforting description in the world. There was a tsunami, a giant wall of water moving faster than the speed of sound. That's AI.

Elon:我创建 OpenAI 的原因是为了制衡谷歌,因为当时谷歌在 AI 领域基本上拥有单边权力。而拉里·佩奇(Larry Page)并没有认真对待安全问题。他曾称我为“物种主义者”,因为我更关心人类而不是机器。我当时想,拉里,我们需要确保 AI 不会毁灭所有人类。然后他叫我物种主义者。我就想,好吧,拉里,你到底站哪边?

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Elon: The reason I wanted to create OpenAI was to serve as a counterweight to Google because at the time Google was sort of essentially had unilateral power in AI. And Larry Page was not taking safety seriously. He called me a "speciest." You were more concerned about the human race than you were about the machines. I was like, Larry, we need to make sure that the AI doesn't destroy all the humans. And then he called me a specist. I'm like, well, Larry, what side are you on?

Elon:所以 OpenAI 的创建初衷是作为谷歌的对立面,一个开源的非营利组织。不幸的是,它现在需要改名为“为了最大利润而封闭的AI”(Closed for Maximum Profit AI)。命运真是个讽刺最大化器。对于一个为做开源非营利AI而创建的公司来说,最讽刺的结局就是它变得超级闭源,比诺克斯堡还严密,并且追求最大化的利润。

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Elon: So OpenAI was created essentially as the opposite, which is an open source nonprofit, the opposite of Google. Now unfortunately it needs to change its name to Closed for Maximum Profit AI. Fate is an irony maximizer. You have to say what is the most ironic outcome for a company that was created for to do open source nonprofit AI is it's super closed source. It's tighter than Fort Knox. And they are going for maximum profit.

能源的终局:太阳的力量与可持续未来

Host:你看到了比尔·盖茨发布的那份备忘录吗?很多人都在谈论它。气候变化是“觉醒”议题吗?它已经结束“觉醒”状态了吗?比尔·盖茨到底发生了什么?

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Host: Did you saw the Bill Gates memo that he put out? A lot of people are talking about this memo. Did climate change become woke? Did it become like woke? And is it over being woke? Like what happened and what happened with Billy G?

Elon:关于整个气候变化问题的现实是,有一部分人说它根本不存在,另一部分人则是超级危言耸听者,说佛罗里达5年内就会被淹没。显然,这两种立场都不是真的。现实是,你可以测量大气中的碳浓度。大气中二氧化碳的百万分率(PPM)一直在以每年2到3个百分点的速度稳定增长。在某个时刻,如果你继续从地下深处开采数十亿甚至数万亿吨的碳,并将其转移到大气和海洋中,你就会改变大气和海洋的化学成分。

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Elon: The reality of the whole climate change thing is that you've just had sort of people who say it doesn't exist at all and then people who are super alarmist and saying, you know, Florida is going to be underwater in 5 years. And now obviously neither of those two positions are true. The reality is you can measure the carbon concentration in the atmosphere. The parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere has been increasing steadily at 2 to 3 percent per year. At some point if you continue to take billions eventually trillions of tons of carbon from deep underground and transfer to the atmosphere and oceans, you will change the chemical constituency of the atmosphere and oceans.

Elon:在我看来,现实情况是,我们至少还有50年的时间,它才会成为一个严重的问题。我不认为我们有500年,但我们可能有50年。它不是5年。所以,正确的行动方针其实是合理的,那就是朝着可持续能源的方向倾斜。

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Elon: The reality is that in my opinion is that we've got at least 50 years before it's a serious issue. I don't think we've got 500 years. But we've probably got, you know, 50. It's not 5 years. So really the right course of action is actually just the reasonable course of action which is to lean in the direction of sustainable energy.

Elon:重要的是要认识到太阳的巨大能量。这里有一些重要的基本事实。太阳大约占太阳系质量的99.8%。然后木星大约占0.1%。其他所有东西都在剩下的0.1%里。所以,基本上无论你做什么,我们太阳系产生的总能量四舍五入后都100%来自太阳。这或许能让你从另一个角度理解为什么太阳能才是真正重要的事。

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Elon: It is important to appreciate just the sheer magnitude of the power of the sun. So this is here are some just important basic facts. The sun is about 99.8% of the mass of the solar system. Then Jupiter is about 0.1%. And then everything else is in the remaining 0.1%. So, basically no matter what you do, total energy produced in our solar system rounds up to 100% from the sun. Maybe that gives some perspective of why solar is really the thing that matters.

Host:在地球上建造聚变反应堆呢?

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Host: What about creating a fusion reactor on earth?

Elon:我对在地球上建造聚变反应堆的看法是,我认为这其实不是一个难题。如果你把一个托卡马克(Tokamak: 一种利用磁约束来实现受控核聚变的环形容器)装置按比例放大,你做得越大,问题就越容易解决。你绝对可以制造出一个产生的能量多于消耗能量的反应堆。但我们为什么要费心在地球上建造一个微不足道的小太阳呢,而我们天上就有一个巨大且免费的?

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Elon: My opinion on creating a fusion reactor on earth is I think this is actually not a hard problem. If you just scale up a Tokamak, the bigger you make it the easier the problem gets. You can absolutely in my opinion make a reactor that generates more energy than it consumes. But why would we bother doing that on making a little itty bitty sun that's so microscopic you'd barely notice on Earth when we've got the giant free one in the sky.

Host:但我们只得到了那能量的不到1%到达地球。

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Host: But we only get a fraction of 1% of that energy on the planet Earth.

Elon:如果人们想玩反应堆,那没关系。玩得开心。但与太阳相比,这不是一项严肃的事业。它更像一个有趣的科学项目,而不是与太阳相提并论的东西。

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Elon: If people want to have fun with reactors, that's fine. Have fun with reactors. But it's not a serious endeavor compared to the sun. It's sort of a fun science project to make a thermonuclear reactor, but it's not it's just peanuts compared to the sun.

Host:那么你的技术挑战不就变成了这些系统制造的可扩展性吗?比如获取原材料。我们有能力用现有的资源做到那种规模吗?

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Host: But then doesn't your technical challenge become the scalability of manufacturing of those systems? So, accessing the raw materials and getting them out of the ground of planet Earth to make them. Do we have an ability to do that with what we have today?

Elon:是的。太阳能电池板是由硅制成的,基本上就是沙子。至于电池方面,比如磷酸铁锂电池,铁是地球上按质量计最丰富的元素。磷也很常见。阳极是碳,也很常见。锂也很常见。实际上,你可以计算出来,我们在特斯拉网站上公布了计算结果,表明你可以完全用太阳能电池板和电池为地球供电,而且不存在任何材料短缺的问题。

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Elon: Yes. Solar panels are made of silicon, which is sand essentially. On the battery side, like iron phosphate lithium-ion battery cells, iron is the biggest element on earth as measured by mass. Phosphorus is also very common. And the anode is carbon, also very common. And then lithium is also very common. So there's actually you can do the math. In fact, we did the math and published it, that shows that you can completely power Earth with solar panels and batteries. And there's no shortage of anything.