马克·卡尼达沃斯演讲:大国博弈时代的中间力量与价值现实主义 Mark Carney 2026-01-21

大国博弈与修昔底德陷阱

似乎每一天我们都在被提醒,我们生活在一个大国博弈的时代,基于规则的秩序正在消退,强者为所欲为,而弱者只能逆来顺受。修昔底德(Thucydides: 古希腊历史学家,提出“修昔底德陷阱”)的这句格言被描述为不可避免的,仿佛是国际关系的自然逻辑正在重新确立。

面对这种逻辑,国家往往有一种强烈的倾向,即随波逐流以求共存,去迁就,去避免麻烦,寄希望于顺从能换来安全。好吧,这行不通。

Original English

It seems that every day we're reminded that we live in an era of great power rivalry, that the rules-based order is fading, that the strong can do what they can and the weak must suffer what they must. And this apherimism of Thusidities is presented as inevitable, as the natural logic of international relations reasserting itself.

And faced with this logic, there is a strong tendency for countries to go along to get along, to accommodate, to avoid trouble, to hope that compliance will buy safety. Well, it won't.

哈维尔与蔬菜店老板的寓言

那么,我们有什么选择?1978年,捷克异见人士、后来的总统瓦茨拉夫·哈维尔(Václav Havel)写了一篇名为**《无权者的权力》**(The Power of the Powerless)的文章。在文中,他问了一个简单的问题:共产主义体制是如何维持下去的?

他的回答从一个蔬菜店老板讲起。每天早上,这位店主都会在橱窗里挂上一块标语:“全世界无产者,联合起来”。他不相信这句话,没人相信。但他还是挂上了标语,为了避免麻烦,为了表示顺从,为了随大流。因为每条街上的每个店主都这样做,这个体制得以存续——不仅仅通过暴力,而是通过普通人参与到他们私下明知是虚假的仪式中来。

哈维尔称之为“活在谎言中”。体制的权力并非来自其真理,而是来自每个人愿意表现得仿佛它是真的。而它的脆弱性也来自同一源头。当哪怕只有一个人停止表演,当蔬菜店老板取下他的标语,幻象就开始破裂。

Original English

So, what are our options? In 1978, the Czech dissident Vaslav Havl, later president, wrote an essay called the power of the powerless. And in it, he asked a simple question. How did the communist system sustain itself?

And his answer began with a green grosser. Every morning, this shopkeeper places a sign in his window, workers of the world unite. He doesn't believe it. No one does. But he places the sign anyway to avoid trouble, to signal compliance, to get along. And because every shopkeeper on every street does the same, the system persists, not through violence alone, but through the participation of ordinary people in rituals they privately know to be false.

Havl called this living within a lie. The system's power comes not from its truth, but from everyone's willingness to perform as if it were true. And its fragility comes from the same source. When even one person stops performing, when the green grosser removes his sign, the illusion begins to crack.

摘下橱窗里的标语

朋友们,现在是企业和国家摘下标语的时候了。几十年来,像加拿大这样的国家在所谓的“基于规则的国际秩序”下繁荣发展。我们加入了它的机构,赞美它的原则,受益于它的可预测性。正因为如此,我们可以在其保护下推行基于价值观的外交政策。

我们知道关于国际规则秩序的故事部分是虚假的。我们知道最强者会在方便时豁免自己;贸易规则的执行是不对称的;我们知道国际法的适用严格程度因被告或受害者的身份而异。

这种虚构是有用的,特别是美国霸权(American Hegemony)帮助提供了公共产品:开放的海上航道、稳定的金融体系、集体安全以及解决争端的框架支持。所以我们在橱窗里挂上了标语。我们参与了这些仪式,并在很大程度上避免指出修辞与现实之间的差距。

Original English

Friends, it is time for companies and countries to take their signs down. For decades, for decades, countries like Canada prospered under what we called the rules-based international order. We joined its institutions. We praised its principles. We benefited from its predictability.

And because of that, we could pursue values-based foreign policies under its protection. We knew the story of the international rulesbased order was partially false. That the strongest would exempt themselves when convenient. That trade rules were enforced s asymmetrically. And we knew that international law applied with varying rigor depending on the identity of the accused or the victim.

This fiction was useful and American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods, open sea lanes, a stable financial system, collective security and support for frameworks for resolving disputes. So we placed the sign in the window. We participated in the rituals and we largely avoided calling out the gaps between rhetoric and reality.

并非转型,而是断裂

这种交易不再奏效了。让我直说吧:我们正处于一场断裂(Rupture)之中,而不是转型。

在过去的二十年里,金融、卫生、能源和地缘政治的一系列危机暴露了极端全球一体化的风险。但最近,大国开始将经济一体化作为武器。关税作为杠杆,金融基础设施作为胁迫手段,供应链作为可被利用的弱点。

你不能生活在通过一体化实现互惠互利的谎言中,当一体化成为你从属地位的源头时。中等强国所依赖的多边机构——WTO、联合国、COP——这些集体解决问题的架构本身正受到威胁。

Original English

This bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.

Over the past two decades, a series of crises in finance, health, energy, and geopolitics have laid bare the risks of extreme global integration. But more recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons. Tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited.

You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration. When integration becomes the source of your subordination, the multilateral institutions on which the middle powers have relied, the WTO, the UN, the COP, the architecture, the very architecture of collective problem solving are under threat.

堡垒世界的代价

因此,许多国家得出了相同的结论:它们必须在能源、食品、关键矿产、金融和供应链方面发展更大的战略自主(Strategic Autonomy)。这种冲动是可以理解的。一个不能养活自己、确保持续能源供应或保卫自己的国家几乎没有选择余地。当规则不再保护你时,你必须保护你自己。

但让我们清醒地看到这会导致什么。一个充满堡垒的世界将更加贫穷、更加脆弱且更不可持续。还有一个真相:如果大国为了不受阻碍地追求权力和利益而放弃哪怕是规则和价值观的伪装,那么从交易主义(Transactionalism)中获得的收益将变得难以复制。

霸权国家不能持续地将其关系货币化。盟友会为了对冲不确定性而进行多元化。他们会购买保险,增加选项,以重建主权。这种主权曾经建立在规则之上,但将越来越多地锚定在承受压力的能力之上。

Original English

And as a result, many countries are drawing the same conclusions that they must develop greater strategic autonomy in energy, food, critical minerals, in finance and supply chains. And this impulse is understandable. A country that can't feed itself, fuel itself, or defend itself has few options. When the rules no longer protect you, you must protect yourself.

But let's be cleareyed about where this leads. A world of fortresses will be poorer, more fragile, and less sustainable. And there's another truth. If great powers abandon even the pretense of rules and values for the unhindered pursuit of their power and interests, the gains from transactionalism will become harder to replicate.

Hegeimons cannot continually monetize their relationships. Allies will diversify to hedge against uncertainty. They'll buy insurance, increase options in order to rebuild sovereignty. Sovereignty that was once grounded in rules, but will increasingly be anchored in the ability to withstand pressure.

价值现实主义:原则与务实并重

在座的各位都知道这是经典的风险管理。风险管理是有代价的。但战略自主和主权的成本也可以分担。对韧性的集体投资比每个人都建造自己的堡垒要便宜。共享标准减少了碎片化。互补性是正和博弈(Positive Sum)。

对于像加拿大这样的中等强国来说,问题不在于是否适应新现实——我们必须适应。问题在于,我们是通过简单地筑起更高的墙来适应,还是我们可以做一些更雄心勃勃的事情。

加拿大是最早听到警钟的国家之一,这导致我们从根本上转变了战略姿态。加拿大人知道,我们过去那种舒适的假设——即我们的地理位置和联盟成员资格自动赋予繁荣和安全——这种假设已不再有效。

我们的新方针建立在芬兰总统亚历山大·斯图布(Alexander Stubb)所称的**“基于价值的现实主义”**(Value-based Realism)之上。或者换句话说,我们的目标是既有原则又务实。

在坚持基本价值观方面有原则:主权、领土完整、除符合联合国宪章外禁止使用武力,以及尊重人权。在承认进步往往是渐进的方面务实:利益会分歧,并非每个伙伴都会分享我们所有的价值观。

Original English

This room knows this is classic risk management. Risk management comes at a price. But that cost of strategic autonomy of sovereignty can also be shared. Collective investments in resilience are cheaper than everyone building their own fortresses.

Shared standards reduce fragmentations. Complimentarities are positive sum. And the question for middle powers like Canada is not whether to adapt to the new reality. We must. The question is whether we adapt by simply building higher walls or whether we can do something more ambitious.

Now, Canada was amongst the first to hear the wakeup call leading us to fundamentally shift our strategic posture. Canadians know that our old comfortable assumptions that our geography and alliance memberships automatically conferred prosperity and security, that assumption is no longer valid.

And our new approach rests on what Alexander Stub, the president of Finland, has termed valuebased realism. Or to put another way, we aim to be both principled and pragmatic.

Principled in our commitment to fundamental values, sovereignty, territorial integrity, the prohibition of the use of force except when consistent with the UN charter, and respect for human rights. and pragmatic in recognizing that progress is often incremental, that interests diverge, that not every partner will share all of our values.

实力决定价值:国内建设与全球多元化

因此,我们正睁大眼睛进行广泛的战略接触。我们积极应对世界的本来面目,而不是空等一个我们希望的世界。我们正在校准我们的关系,使其深度反映我们的价值观。鉴于当前世界的流动性、其带来的风险以及未来的利害关系,我们优先考虑广泛的接触以最大化我们的影响力。

我们不再仅仅依赖我们价值观的力量,还要依赖我们实力的价值。

我们在国内建立这种实力。自本届政府上任以来,我们削减了所得税、资本利得税和商业投资税。我们消除了所有联邦层面的省际贸易壁垒。我们正在快速推进在能源、人工智能、关键矿产、新贸易走廊等领域一万亿美元的投资。我们将在本十年末将国防开支翻一番,并且我们是以建立国内产业的方式来做这件事。

我们在国外迅速实现多元化。我们已与欧盟达成全面战略伙伴关系,包括加入欧洲国防采购安排(SAFE)。我们在6个月内在四大洲签署了12项其他贸易和安全协议。在过去几天里,我们与中国和卡塔尔缔结了新的战略伙伴关系。我们正在与印度、东盟、泰国、菲律宾和南方共同市场(Mercosur)谈判自由贸易协定。

Original English

So, we're engaging broadly, strategically with open eyes. We actively take on the world as it is, not wait around for a world we wish to be. We are calibrating our relationships so their depth reflects our values. And we're prioritizing broad engagement to maximize our influence given and given the fluidity of the world at the moment, the risks that this poses and the stakes for what comes next.

And we are no longer just relying on the strength of our values, but also the value of our strength.

We are building that strength at home. Since my government took office, we have cut taxes on incomes, on capital gains and business investment. We have removed all federal barriers to interprovincial trade. We are fast-tracking a trillion dollars of investments in energy, AI, critical minerals, new trade corridors, and beyond. We're doubling our defense spending by the end of this decade, and we're doing so in ways that build our domestic industries.

And we are rapidly diversifying abroad. We've agreed a comprehensive strategic partnership with the EU, including joining SAFE, the European defense procurement arrangements. We have signed 12 other trade and security deals on four continents in 6 months. In the past few days, we've concluded new strategic partnerships with China and Qatar. We're negotiating free trade packs with India, ASEAN, Thailand, Philippines, and Mercur.

可变几何:灵活的联盟策略

我们还在做别的事情。为了帮助解决全球问题,我们正在推行**“可变几何”**(Variable Geometry: 针对不同议题组建不同的联盟)。换句话说,基于共同的价值观和利益,针对不同议题建立不同的联盟。

所以在乌克兰问题上,我们是意愿联盟的核心成员,也是人均国防和安全贡献最大的国家之一。

在北极主权问题上,我们坚定地与格陵兰和丹麦站在一起,完全支持他们决定格陵兰未来的独特权利。

我们对北约第五条款的承诺是不可动摇的。因此,我们正在与北约盟友合作,包括北欧-波罗的海国家,以进一步确保联盟的北部和西部侧翼安全,包括通过加拿大在超视距雷达、潜艇、飞机以及地面部队和冰上部队方面前所未有的投资。

加拿大强烈反对针对格陵兰的关税,并呼吁进行集中会谈,以实现我们在北极安全和繁荣方面的共同目标。

Original English

We're doing something else. To help solve global problems, we're pursuing variable geometry. In other words, different coalitions for different issues based on common values and interests. So on Ukraine, we're a core member of the coalition of the willing and one of the largest per capita contributors to its defense and security.

on Arctic sovereignty. We stand firmly with Greenland and Denmark and fully support their unique right to determine Greenland's future.

Our commitment to NATO's Article 5 is unwavering.

So, we're working with our NATO allies, including the Nordic Baltic Gate, to further secure the alliance's northern and western flanks, including through Canada's unprecedented investments in over the horizon radar, in submarines, in aircraft, and boots on the ground, boots on the ice.

Canada strongly opposes tariffs over Greenland and calls for focused talks to achieve our shared objectives of security and prosperity in the Arctic.

关键矿产与AI主权

在多边贸易方面,我们正在倡导建立连接跨太平洋伙伴关系(TPP)和欧盟的桥梁,这将创造一个拥有15亿人口的新贸易集团。

在关键矿产方面,我们正在组建以七国集团(G7)为核心的买家俱乐部,以便世界能够摆脱对集中供应的依赖。

在人工智能方面,我们正在与志同道合的民主国家合作,以确保我们最终不会被迫在霸权国家和超大规模云厂商(Hyperscalers)之间做出选择。

这不是天真的多边主义,也不依赖于它们的机构。这是建立联盟,与那些有足够共同点可以一起行动的伙伴逐个议题地解决问题。在某些情况下,这将包括绝大多数国家。这样做是在贸易、投资和文化之间建立密集的联系网络,我们可以利用这些网络应对未来的挑战和机遇。

Original English

On plurilateral trade, we're championing efforts to build a bridge between the Trans-Pacific Partnership in the European Union, which would create a new trading block of 1.5 billion people. On critical minerals, we're forming buyers clubs anchored in the G7 so that the world can diversify away from concentrated supply. And on AI, we're cooperating with like-minded democracies to ensure that we won't ultimately be forced to choose between hedgeimons and hyperscalers.

This is not naive multilateralism, nor is it relying on their institutions. It's building coalitions that work issues by issue with partners who share enough common ground to act together.

In some cases, this will be the vast majority of nations. What it's doing is creating a dense web of connections across trade investment culture on which we can draw for future challenges and opportunities.

中间力量的抉择:不在餐桌上,就在菜单上

我认为中间力量必须共同行动,因为如果我们不在餐桌上,我们就会在菜单上。

但我还要说,大国目前还得起“单干”的代价。他们拥有市场规模、军事能力和发号施令的筹码。中间力量没有。但当我们只与霸权国家进行双边谈判时,我们是在弱势地位上谈判。我们接受对方的提议。我们相互竞争,看谁最顺从。

这不是主权。这是在接受从属地位的同时表演主权。

在大国博弈的世界里,夹在中间的国家有一个选择:是相互竞争以争宠,还是联合起来创造一条有影响力的第三条道路。

我们不应让硬实力的崛起蒙蔽我们的双眼,而忽视这样一个事实:如果我们选择共同运用合法性、正直和规则的力量,它们依然强大。

Original English

argue the middle powers must act together because if we're not at the table, we're on the menu.

But I'd also say that great powers, great powers can afford for now to go it alone. They have the market size, the military capacity, and the leverage to dictate terms. Middle powers do not. But when we only negotiate bilaterally with a hedgeimon, we negotiate from weakness. We accept what's offered. We compete with each other to be the most accommodating.

This is not sovereignty. It's the performance of sovereignty while accepting subordination.

In a world of great power rivalry, the countries in between have a choice. Compete with each other for favor or to combine to create a third path with impact.

We shouldn't allow the rise of hard power to blind us to the fact that the power of legitimacy, integrity, and rules will remain strong if we choose to wield them together,

活在真理中

这让我回到了哈维尔。对于中间力量来说,“活在真理中”意味着什么?

首先,这意味着命名现实。停止像“基于规则的国际秩序”依然如广告所言那样运作一样去援引它。直呼其名:这是一个大国博弈加剧的体系,最强大的国家利用经济一体化作为胁迫手段来追求自身利益。

这意味着行动一致,对盟友和对手适用相同的标准。当中等强国批评来自一个方向的经济恐吓,却对来自另一个方向的恐吓保持沉默时,我们就是在把标语留在橱窗里。

这意味着建立我们声称相信的东西,而不是等待旧秩序恢复。这意味着创建如描述般运作的机构和协议。

这意味着减少使胁迫成为可能的杠杆。建立强大的国内经济应该是每个政府的当务之急。国际多元化不仅仅是经济上的审慎,它是诚实外交政策的物质基础,因为国家通过减少对报复的脆弱性,赢得了采取原则立场的权利。

Original English

which brings me back to Havl. What does it mean for middle powers to live the truth? Well, first, it means naming reality. Stop invoking rules-based international order as though it still functions as advertised. Call it what it is, a system of intensifying great power rivalry where the most powerful pursue their interests using economic integration as coercion.

It means acting consistently applying the same standards to allies and rivals. When middle powers criticize economic intimidation from one direction but stay silent when it comes from another, we are keeping the sign in the window.

It means building what we claim to believe in rather than waiting for the old order to be restored. It means creating institutions and agreements that function as described.

And it means reducing the leverage that enables coercion. That's building a strong domestic economy. should be every government's immediate priority.

And diversification internationally is not just economic prudence. It's a material foundation for honest foreign policy because countries earn the right to principled stands by reducing their vulnerability to retaliation.

加拿大的道路

加拿大拥有世界想要的东西。我们是能源超级大国。我们拥有巨大的关键矿产储备。我们拥有世界上受教育程度最高的人口。我们的养老基金是世界上最大的、最成熟的投资者之一。换句话说,我们有资本和人才。我们还有一个拥有巨大财政能力并能果断行动的政府。

我们拥有许多其他人向往的价值观。加拿大是一个行之有效的多元化社会。我们的公共广场是喧闹、多样和自由的。加拿大人依然致力于可持续发展。

在一个动荡不安的世界里,我们是一个稳定可靠的伙伴。一个建立并重视长期关系的伙伴。

我们还有别的东西。我们对正在发生的事情有清醒的认识,并有决心采取相应的行动。我们明白,这种断裂需要的不仅仅是适应。它需要对世界的本来面目保持诚实。我们正在把标语从橱窗里取下来。我们知道旧秩序不会回来了。我们不应该哀悼它。怀旧不是一种战略。

但我们相信,从裂痕中,我们可以建立更大、更好、更强、更公正的东西。这是中间力量的任务,这些国家在堡垒世界中损失最大,而在真正的合作中获益最多。

强者有他们的权力,但我们也有东西。停止假装、命名现实、在国内建立实力并共同行动的能力。这就是加拿大的道路。我们公开而自信地选择它,这是一条向任何愿意与我们同行的国家敞开的道路。非常感谢。

Original English

So Canada has what the world wants. We are an energy superpower. We hold vast reserves of critical minerals. We have the most educated population in the world. Our pension funds are amongst the world's largest and most sophisticated investors. In other words, we have capital, talent. We also have a government with immense fiscal capacity to act decisively.

And we have the values to which many others aspire. Canada is a pluralistic society that works. Our public square is loud, diverse, and free. Canadians remain committed to sustainability.

We are a stable and reliable partner in a world that is anything but. A partner that builds and values relationships for the long term.

And we have something else. We have a recognition of what's happening and a determination to act accordingly. We understand that this rupture calls for more than adaptation. It calls for honesty about the world as it is. We are taking the sign out of the window. We know the old order is not coming back. We shouldn't mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy.

But we believe that from the fracture, we can build something bigger, better, stronger, more just. This is the task of the middle powers, the countries that have the most to lose from a world of fortresses and a most to gain from genuine cooperation.

The powerful have their power, but we have something too. The capacity to stop pretending, to name reality, to build our strength at home, and to act together. That is Canada's path. We choose it openly and confidently, and it is a path wide open to any country willing to take it with us. Thank you very much.

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

关键字: geopolitics middle-powers strategic-autonomy international-relations economic-resilience