碳信用的真相:如何填补 93.6% 的减排缺口并资助全球南方 TED 2026-03-31

红色三角形:填补 93.6% 的减排真空

我们并未生活在一个完美的世界,尤其在应对气候变化方面,虽然全球 30% 的能源已转为清洁能源,但在可预见的未来,人类仍高度依赖化石燃料。目前的领军减排方案,如科学减碳倡议(Science Based Targets initiative: 一个协助企业设定符合《巴黎协定》减排目标的全球性倡议),虽然促使企业承诺平均每年减少 6.4% 的排放以实现净零目标,但这仅涵盖了极小的一部分。桑迪普·罗伊·乔杜里提出了一个核心命题:剩下的 93.6% 的排放该由谁负责?他将这一庞大的灰色地带称为“红色三角形”。

碳信用(Carbon Credit: 代表减少、移除或避免一吨二氧化碳排放的证明)正是为解决这 93.6% 的排放而设计的工具。这并非凭空捏造的数字,而是经过第三方审计并符合国际标准的认证。碳信用允许企业在努力减少那 6.4% 排放的同时,为边界之外的剩余排放承担责任。这并不是“污染许可证”,而是一种超越自身边界、资助全球能源转型和生态屏障(如红树林种植)的必要手段。

Original English Source

We don't live in a perfect world. I wish we did, especially when it comes to fighting climate change. Sure, we have 30 percent of the world on clean energy, but we still depend a lot on fossil fuels for the near future. Take the Science Based Targets initiative. It's a leading decarbonization initiative for businesses. Businesses have taken a target, on an average, of 6.4 percent emission reductions per year, year on year, till they go net zero. That's great news. But what happens to the other 93.6 percent? My fight is on that 93.6 percent. Here's the red triangle, is what I call it. What happens between now and then? Who takes care of these emissions? Who's taking responsibility for these emissions that we are leaving out there in the atmosphere?

Here's where carbon credits come in. One carbon credit equals one ton of carbon that is either removed, reduced or avoided. These don't come from thin air. They're third-party audited, certified using international standards. These credits can then be bought by companies to offset their emissions. Not the 6.4 percent they are to reduce -- it's for this 93.6, and that's the important point. We're not saying do not reduce. You reduce, but go beyond, because this red triangle is important. This is also not a license to pollute. This allows companies to take responsibility for these emissions, yes, but it also allows these companies to work beyond their boundaries and help things like the energy transition, things like planting mangroves in some other country for the communities, the frontline communities who bear the brunt of climate change every day of their lives.

敏捷桥梁:突破地缘政治的“最后三公里”资金瓶颈

在具体的执行层面,碳信用扮演着一种敏捷桥梁(Agile Bridge: 能够快速绕过官僚体系实现资金精准投放的金融机制)的角色。由于公共气候资金往往深受地缘政治(Geopolitics)和官僚主义的困扰,资金到达全球南方(Global South)偏远社区的速度极其缓慢。乔杜里分享了 2021 年在印度尼西亚的一个案例:由于 2004 年海啸的惨痛教训,当地社区急需通过种植红树林建立生态防护墙。由于红树林能有效消减波浪能量,拥有红树林的岛屿在灾难中受损较轻。

通过碳信用机制,这些社区得以绕过缓慢的官方渠道直接获得资金,建起了“红树林之墙”。针对外界关于碳信用是“骗局”的质疑,乔杜里坦诚分享了一个失败案例:2024 年秋季,苏门答腊的一场洪水冲走了新种的红树林。但这并不意味着碳信用失效,因为成熟的系统早已设计了缓冲机制(Buffers: 碳项目通常会预留 15-20% 的信用额度以应对洪水、火灾等非预期风险)。这种风险管理确保了气候行动即便在极高风险的偏远地区也能持续推进。

Original English Source

I actually call them the first responders, not the vulnerable. It's an important distinction to make. Solutions can and should reach every part of the planet, from the tropics of Papua to the deserts of the Sahel, to the settlements of the Amazon, everywhere. Think of carbon credits as a bridge. An agile bridge. It gets you funding right now. We need finance now ... and that's an important concept. Think back to the red triangle, the 93.6.

So sometimes, we’re called the Wild Wild West, the carbon markets. I have been working in carbon for almost two decades now, and I have seen the difference it can make. I'll take you to Indonesia. There was this NGO that reached out to us in 2021 and said, "We want to build a wall of mangroves." I said, "Why?" So in 2004, when the tsunami hit all those islands which had standing mangroves, the waves, they were tackled faster, and hence, there was less destruction in those islands. Again, you have to remember that public climate finance is slow to reach these last-mile communities, because it's steeped in bureaucracy and geopolitics. Geopolitics, people, the world we live today. And they came to us, and we made it happen, through carbon credits. There you go, a wall of mangroves, baby mangroves, but they grow up really quickly.

Sometimes, these credits, and I hear this a lot, "It's a scam." And I get it, because there have been some high-profile failures about carbon markets that you might have heard about. And I get it, but not all projects are failures, and not all failures are the end of the story. Let me talk about one of my failures. The same mangroves we planted in Indonesia, out of those, in one area of Sumatra, there was this massive flood in the fall of 2024. Those walls of mangroves disappeared. The floods came in and took all those trees. Does that mean all those carbon credits that we claimed for the projects were bogus? No, because we account for these risks. In any carbon standards and methodologies, we have things like dispersed planting, risk management and buffers. Buffers is an important concept. Every project keeps aside about 15 to 20 percent of carbon credits for exactly this reason. So the credit and the claim stands. This is important, because most of climate action will happen in places where the risk is high. That's the way it should be done.

排污者付费:直接赋能全球南方的社会变革

碳市场的另一个核心优势在于它实现了“排污者付费”(Polluters Pay)的直接化。相比于漫长的跨国援助,碳市场允许排污企业将资金直接支付给正在采取气候行动的一线社区。这种机制极具效率:在欧盟减少一吨碳排放的平均成本约为 75 美元,而在东南亚仅需 15 美元。这意味着同样的投资可以产生 5 倍的减排影响,并带来巨大的社会增量。

在这些项目中,气候行动与社区建设是密不可分的。乔杜里展示了一系列生动的实证:

  • 印度克什米尔:在电网永远无法触达的偏远村庄安装太阳能家庭照明系统。
  • 印度尼西亚:妇女微型企业利用红树林色素制作蜡染产品,创造可持续生计。
  • 马达加斯加:曾经的偷猎者 Injara 转型成为红树林种植者,实现了个人与生态的双赢。
  • 坦桑尼亚基戈马:建立女子足球队,将农业林业系统与社区体育精神结合。
  • 孟加拉国:清洁厨具项目从 2012 年的 50 万户规模,通过市场机制迅速扩张至 650 万户。

这种基于市场的交易并非施舍,而是对农民转变耕作方式、修复自然等“生态服务”的公平支付。乔杜里警告说,目前的市场批评者虽然关注审计和土著权利(这些也正是碳标准所关注的),但如果不分青红皂白地攻击碳市场,将导致企业因畏惧舆论而陷入“无作为”的安全陷阱。面对全球气候危机,虽然在探索过程中会犯错,但抛弃目前对全球南方唯一有效的工具才是最大的错误。

Original English Source

I often hear about ... "Polluters pay." I go to conferences and I see people holding up signs, "Polluters pay." And I almost question, saying, "Polluters pay, but pay who?" Right? So carbon markets actually allow for these polluters to pay directly to the people who are taking climate action. This is important: directly to people who are taking climate action. And the planet, frankly, could not care where your decarbonization comes from.

So case in point, it costs 75 dollars to reduce one ton of carbon, on average, in the European Union. In Southeast Asia, that average is 15 dollars a ton. You're getting five times more impact, value for your buck, and you're getting I don't know how many more times of the social impact. I have seen it firsthand. Let me take you to Kashmir, [to] a distant village in India, where the grid will never reach. Solar home lighting systems here. Same project in Indonesia. Women microenterprises making batik products using mangrove pigments. Livelihoods. Meet Injara. He’s an ex-poacher in Madagascar, now plants mangroves with us. Social change. A football team in Kigoma, Tanzania. These are women who plant agroforestry systems with us in Kigoma, but play football. We have village-level football competitions. Now community building cannot be decoupled from nature restoration. This is a very important point.

And this is a scale up [program]. This clean cooking concrete kitchen [program] in rural Bangladesh was languishing at about 500,000 households in 2012. We took it up to 6.5 million households in the next few years. Scale is of essence on climate action, and that's where markets can help. This is all possible because, when climate action is rooted in people and possibilities, markets allow us to explore those possibilities. Sometimes, I hear about the accounting. "Ah, but the accounting is not solid." I get it, but which part of climate science is solid accounting? The science improves, so does the accounting. We also worry about things like Indigenous rights, consent on local populations, benefit-sharing mechanisms. Please understand that we worry about it; so do the carbon standards. A carbon finance is not a grant, it's a transaction. It talks to the equality of the transactor and the transacted. A farmer transitioning to a cleaner practice is being paid for a service. It's not a dole-out. These people, these programs have nowhere else to go for money.

So companies will reduce what they can, and they will invest in carbon credits for what they can't. It's the right thing to do. But today, all of the market detractors make it impossible, or make it so much harder for companies who are actually trying. This will not solve this problem. We have to keep trying, for mistakes will happen, and that's OK. What is not right is to let go of the only tools that work for the Global South. Today, we are making inaction feel safer than action. That's not how this gets solved. So let's fix what needs fixing. Let's take responsibility for all those emissions and leave no emissions behind. Price every ton. That's the only responsible thing to do.

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

关键字: carbon-credits climate-finance global-south nature-based-solutions risk-management