Hello everyone, welcome back to Cui's Political and Financial Insights. Today is November 10, 2025, Eastern US time, and welcome to this week's Daily News program. Today is an exciting day because the US government is finally expected to reopen, and capital markets have generally performed well.

Let's first look at the performance of China's A-share market. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.53%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.18%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.92%, showing a counter-trend adjustment.

In terms of sectors, the broad consumer sector saw a comprehensive surge, with food, liquor, duty-free shops, and tourism sectors all strengthening. Chemical stocks continued their strong performance, and silicon energy concept stocks were active. However, computing power hardware stocks such as CPO, copper cables, and high-speed interconnects began to adjust, and humanoid robot concept stocks also performed poorly.

The strong performance of the consumer sector is mainly due to the "Report on the Implementation of China's Fiscal Policy in the First Half of 2025" released by the Ministry of Finance on November 7. The report mentioned that it would continue to implement special actions to boost consumption, providing fiscal interest subsidies for personal consumption loans in key areas and loans for operating entities in related industries. In addition, Reuters reported that Chinese internet platforms are quietly resuming consumer credit businesses, such as Ant Group and JD.com.

However, it is worth noting that the non-performing loan ratio for personal consumption loans in the first three quarters of this year was very high. I observed that the non-performing asset packages bundled and sold by banks were mainly personal consumption loans. Therefore, I personally remain reserved about the resurgence of online lending, which may lead to more people facing the risk of credit default. After all, stimulating consumption should not rely on loan overdrafts or subsidies, but should be achieved by increasing people's income, but currently we have not seen a clear shift in this regard from the Chinese government.

Tomorrow is the "Double 11" shopping festival, and I believe there will be more positive news regarding "Double 11" recently, so the consumer sector is expected to continue to strengthen.

The second important piece of news is that SanDisk, a major storage chip manufacturer, announced a contract price increase of up to 50% for NAND flash memory. In the US stock market, Micron Technology also surged over 15% due to strong sales of data center storage chips. The memory industry has been exceptionally hot this year, with the net profits of the three major module manufacturers multiplying several times in the third quarter.

Currently, wafer fabs are dedicating more production lines to the manufacturing of cutting-edge memory for GPUs and AI accelerators, leading to a supply shortage of consumer-grade SSDs and embedded modules, which in turn has caused memory suppliers' profits to surge. This trend is driven by the development of artificial intelligence technology.

Next, let's focus on the robotics industry. Today, Goldman Sachs released a research report on Chinese robotics, and its characterization as a "gamble" is noteworthy.

From November 3 to 6, 2025, Goldman Sachs surveyed nine Chinese supply chain companies, including the renowned Sanhua Intelligent Controls. They found that most suppliers are actively planning production capacity overseas (such as in Thailand and Mexico) to support the potential mass production of humanoid robots.

However, Tesla has stated that its robots currently have no external suppliers and are entirely manufactured in-house through vertical integration. So, are companies like Sanhua, which originally supplied Tesla, now setting up factories in Mexico to enter Tesla's robot supply chain? This remains unknown.

The production capacity planned by these suppliers, ranging from 100,000 to 1 million units, appears quite aggressive. Goldman Sachs itself predicts that global humanoid robot shipments will only reach about 1.38 million units by 2035. Yet, Chinese suppliers are planning 10 years in advance, with a production capacity already around 1 million units, which is undoubtedly a speculative gamble based on expectations.

Goldman Sachs emphasized that without any company confirming large-scale orders or clear production schedules, suppliers should adopt a gradual ramp-up strategy, rather than "gambling" on expanding production capacity prematurely like Chinese suppliers. This implies a certain risk of overcapacity even before production begins. Furthermore, there is uncertainty as to whether these suppliers can successfully enter the supply chains of major manufacturers like Tesla.

Driven by national strategies, China often sees a large number of enterprises flocking into a particular industry, with the electric vehicle sector serving as a precedent. Currently, there are no signs of a booming civilian market for humanoid robots, and Tesla's own robots have not yet entered mass production or the market. In this context, large-scale pre-emptive deployment may face profit pressures, and if the market does not further open up, relying solely on government subsidies will be difficult to sustain in the long run.

Next is news about gold. Gold prices also rose today, which seems strange, but in fact reflects the current rational strategy of investors: when liquidity is injected, both risk assets and safe-haven assets rise simultaneously, forming a hedge. This continues the investment logic of "stocks and gold rising together" this year.

The China Gold Association announced data showing that gold consumption in the first three quarters of 2025 fell by 7.95% year-on-year. Among them, sales of gold jewelry decreased by 32.5%, but sales of investment gold such as gold bars and coins increased by 24.55%, and industrial gold sales also rose by 2.72%. The increase in domestic gold ETF holdings in the first three quarters surged by 164% year-on-year.

This indicates that Chinese people are shifting from consuming gold jewelry to investing in gold. On the one hand, declining consumer spending reduces the demand for expensive jewelry; on the other hand, lacking other good investment channels, many choose to invest in gold, which has performed well this year. This data reflects weak consumer demand in China, while investment demand squeezed out from areas like the stock market and bank wealth management remains strong, indicating a low-risk appetite among investors.

After discussing A-shares, let's look at Hong Kong stocks. As of the close, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.55%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.34%. Specifically, consumer stocks led the gains, with liquor, tourism, and retail sectors moving in line with A-shares. Technology stocks also performed well, for example, Tencent rose by 2%. Some analyses suggest that Tencent's earnings data in the third quarter may be relatively optimistic.

In terms of individual stocks, Pop Mart rose by 8%, and BYD rose by 4%.

After discussing China, let's talk about Japan. Today, a serious "wolf warrior diplomacy" incident occurred in Japan. On November 7, when asked in the House of Representatives about a "Taiwan contingency," Japanese official Sanae Takaichi stated that if Taiwan were attacked by China using military force, such as warships, and Japan's survival were endangered, the Japanese government might exercise its right to collective self-defense. Her statement itself was not problematic, as exercising self-defense is a reasonable action when the nation's survival is at stake.

However, Xue Jin, the Chinese Consul General in Osaka, Japan, a renowned "wolf warrior" diplomat, quoted a Japanese media report on social media, threatening: "We will have no choice but to unhesitatingly sever those dirty necks that trespass without authorization. Are you prepared?" This remark was bloody and personally threatening, causing great shock among the Japanese public.

Although Xue Jin later deleted the post, he continued to publish other intimidating remarks, such as "A Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency, a path to death chosen by some foolish Japanese politicians," and "Violating the obligations that a defeated nation should fulfill, do not suffer national annihilation again as a defeated nation." Such threatening and intimidating diplomatic language was relatively rare in past Chinese diplomacy but has become frequent under the current leadership, severely damaging China's international image.

Wolf warrior diplomats have not disappeared; rather, they reappear at opportune moments, according to the intentions of higher authorities. While this diplomatic approach may cater to certain preferences, it is extremely detrimental to China's international relations and the image of its people.

On the economic front, Sanae Takaichi of Japan hinted at weakening the government's previous commitment to fiscal consolidation, stating that a new multi-year fiscal target would be set to provide greater flexibility for government spending, while still emphasizing fiscal discipline.

An expert panel of Japan's Economic Growth Council recommended that Japan would strive to achieve higher fiscal revenue without raising taxes, and consider including chips, critical minerals, and defense sectors in its economic package. Sanae Takaichi also stated that the possibility of future consumption tax cuts cannot be ruled out. This aligns with her previously proposed fiscal policy, which aims to first alleviate the inflation burden on the Japanese public, stabilize livelihoods through tax cuts and subsidies, and then stimulate economic growth through government investment and driving key industries.

We are closely watching the coordination capabilities between the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance. If Sanae Takaichi can achieve her policy goals with appropriate fiscal expansion without compromising monetary stability, she will become a legendary figure.

Next, news from the United States. The US government is finally about to reopen, and today, both the stock market and cryptocurrency markets have seen broad gains, primarily driven by this significant positive news.

On November 10, the U.S. Senate officially passed a new continuing appropriations bill, which will fund the government until January 30, ending the government shutdown. The vote was 60 in favor and 40 against. After 40 days, the government shutdown is finally expected to end, although it still needs House approval.

The government shutdown has caused severe economic losses in the United States and led to chaos such as traffic control and personnel shortages, significantly impacting aviation safety. Numerous flights have been canceled recently, and there was even a plane crash. Therefore, the government could not remain shut down, and the two parties finally reached an agreement.

The government reopening is a major positive for the market, as a large amount of funds from the Treasury General Account will be disbursed, injecting liquidity into the stock market. Furthermore, October marks the first month of the new US fiscal year, and the "Great American Act" (including tax cuts, subsidies, and deregulation policies) introduced by Donald Trump in July failed to materialize due to the government shutdown, but will now be continuously implemented after the government reopens. This means that fiscal easing will be fully implemented, and coupled with the Federal Reserve's monetary easing, the stock market is expected to continue its positive trend in the future.

In this short-term appropriations bill, the Democratic Party made significant concessions, failing to achieve their main demand of extending the tax credit policy for the Affordable Care Act. Republicans firmly opposed ObamaCare subsidies, and the Democrats ultimately conceded. This policy, originally set to expire at the end of December, is not expected to be extended.

The agreement also requires the reversal of all permanent layoffs during the government shutdown and protects such reduction-in-force measures until the end of fiscal year 2026, ensuring that all federal employees receive normal wages during the government shutdown. Additionally, it provides necessary funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNIP) and the Department of Veterans Affairs.

I believe the Donald Trump administration's stance on ObamaCare is firm, and its cancellation is reasonable. The federal government allocates a huge sum of money to ObamaCare annually, which ultimately goes to insurance companies. Trump believes that instead of subsidizing insurance companies, it is better to distribute the money directly to the people, allowing them to decide whether to purchase insurance independently. This reflects a typical right-wing viewpoint.

The left (Democrats) advocate for a large government, mandating that citizens purchase insurance, with the government making decisions for the people. However, if market economic principles are followed, people should have the right to choose not to purchase health insurance. Healthcare costs in the United States are exorbitant, and for an average middle-class family (earning $70,000-$100,000 annually), mandatory health insurance could lead to annual expenses of around $10,000, not including deductibles, co-pays, and prescription drug costs.

High healthcare burdens once caused a "middle-class disaster." For example, some middle-class families, to avoid high healthcare expenses, chose to have one spouse stop working, thereby reducing household income below the poverty line, which then qualified them for free "white cards" (Medicaid) and other benefits. This led many middle-class families, who otherwise wouldn't need government welfare, to voluntarily "downgrade," thereby eroding the middle class and expanding the Democratic Party's base.

If a political party consistently claims to represent the poor, it will only create more poor people, as this constitutes its voter base. Conversely, if a political party claims to represent the rich, it might create more rich people. The Democratic Party's welfare policies have loopholes, leading many to find that working is less beneficial than receiving welfare, thus choosing to remain at the bottom, perpetually relying on government benefits, and voting for the Democratic Party.

I believe ObamaCare should indeed be abolished. In a market economy, individuals should have the right to choose whether to purchase insurance and bear the corresponding risks. The American healthcare system is plagued with problems, and federal government intervention and backstopping will only exacerbate them.

Let's continue with individual stock performance, especially Nvidia. Last week, Nvidia's stock price saw a slight decline, but the drop was limited, unlike AMD, which experienced a larger fall. Today, during pre-market trading, Nvidia rebounded by about 3% amidst a broad market rally. Nvidia is scheduled to release its earnings report this week, and several investment banks are optimistic, raising their price targets.

Last weekend, Jensen Huang, the founder and CEO of Nvidia, personally visited Taiwan to secure production capacity from TSMC, stating that "without TSMC, there would be no Nvidia." His prior visit to South Korea, followed by Taiwan, underscores his emphasis on production capacity. TSMC's sales in October increased by 16.9% year-on-year and surged by 11% month-on-month, indicating that demand outstrips supply. Huang's trip was precisely to secure more production capacity from TSMC.

Nvidia aims to be one of TSMC's primary 3-nanometer process customers, projected to account for approximately 30% of the total output. As a powerful alliance of "shovel sellers" and "shovel makers," they collectively form the upstream of the AI industry.

I have always considered Nvidia an excellent company. Currently, the seven major tech giants primarily rely on their own cash flow in the AI race, with extremely low leverage. For instance, Nvidia's debt is only about $1 billion, while its cash reserves exceed $5 billion, resulting in almost zero leverage (0.1). In contrast, Oracle's leverage ratio is as high as four to five times.

Companies like Microsoft also have a leverage ratio of only 20%. Apart from Oracle and Meta, other companies have not yet begun to significantly increase leverage. This means these companies still have enormous room for future borrowing, capable of raising hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars. Therefore, the AI industry has a long cash-burning cycle ahead, and there is no need to worry about a bubble issue at this stage.

After discussing the stock market, let's talk about macroeconomics. In the coming days, we need to pay attention to some of Donald Trump's fiscal policies. October marks the first month of the new US fiscal year, and Trump's "Great American Act" will be implemented. I previously reminded everyone that Trump would target the real estate market by the end of this year.

His first move surprised me: proposing 50-year mortgages for Americans. This is somewhat sensationalist, because once a mortgage term exceeds 30 years, the reduction in monthly payments is negligible, while the interest becomes astonishingly high. 30 years is the optimal choice for a mortgage; anything beyond that holds little significance.

US housing prices are essentially impossible to bring down, because once a house acquires financial attributes, its price will only become more expensive. With the continuous issuance of the US dollar, money will inevitably flow into assets. The residential attribute of real estate takes a backseat, and land is limited, so rising housing prices are a fundamental logic that is difficult to change.

Some of the ideas the Trump administration originally proposed to solve housing price issues, such as increasing land supply and accelerating developer construction, were actually very good, but have not yet been implemented. Instead, he first introduced 50-year mortgages, which might give young people the false impression that Trump is unable to curb housing prices and is merely using this method to "deceive" the public in the short term.

However, in the future AI era, we might witness a day when real estate is "de-financialized," and it is truly possible for everyone to have a place to live.

Furthermore, Donald Trump also mentioned distributing a $2,000 tariff dividend to Americans (excluding high-income earners). In response, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that this idea might be realized more through the tax cut measures of the "Great American Act" rather than direct cash payments. As the "accountant," Yellen clearly prefers tax cuts over direct cash distribution, as direct dividends would significantly reduce the Treasury's cash reserves. This indicates that Trump might have announced this news without consulting Yellen, and whether the $2,000 dividend will materialize remains uncertain.

Let's talk about China again. China's export controls on Fentanyl have indeed been implemented. The Ministry of Commerce of China adjusted the management catalog for exporting precursor chemicals to specific countries, adding the United States, Mexico, and Canada to the list of specific countries, and separately adding 13 types of precursor chemicals specifically for these three countries. FBI Director Christopher Wray also visited China last week to discuss Fentanyl and law enforcement issues.

Regarding the ASML incident, my previous judgment has been confirmed once again. Last week, I mentioned that ASML itself drove up its stock price, while the Netherlands had made no concessions. Today, the Ministry of Commerce confirmed that China noted the statement by the Dutch Minister of Economic Affairs, but as of now, has not seen any actual action from the Netherlands to cease infringing upon the legitimate rights of Chinese enterprises. This indicates that the Netherlands has only made verbal statements without taking concrete action.

In addition, the National Computer Virus Emergency Response Center released a report on November 9, analyzing the incident where $15 billion worth of Bitcoin belonging to the Prince Group (Cambodia) was confiscated by the US government. The report concluded that this was a typical "black-on-black" incident orchestrated by a state-level hacker organization, reflecting China's "pain" over the confiscation of these funds.

Another piece of news is that Burger King will sell its Chinese stake, a move very similar to Starbucks' operation. Chinese private equity firm CPE Yuanfeng acquired 83% of Burger King China's shares, while the original parent company, Restaurant Brands International, retained a 17% stake. Their plan is to expand Burger King's store count in China from the current 1,250 to 4,000 by 2035, which clearly involves introducing Chinese private equity and adopting a low-end expansion strategy to adapt to the Chinese market.

Finally, the State Council General Office of China issued "Several Measures to Further Promote the Development of Private Investment," proposing 13 targeted policy initiatives. Among them, three are particularly noteworthy:

First, it mentioned the need to make good use of the coordinated working mechanism to support financing for small and micro enterprises, and banking financial institutions should formulate annual service targets for private enterprises. This aims to compel banks to lend to private enterprises, but since it is not driven by market behavior, banks will still consider risks. Therefore, private enterprises genuinely in need of funds will still find it difficult to obtain loans, and these funds will only flow to large, well-funded private enterprises to help banks meet their targets.

Second, guiding private capital to orderly participate in infrastructure construction in the low-altitude economy. To encourage private enterprises to help the government with infrastructure projects, sectors previously monopolized by state-owned enterprises, such as aerospace and satellites, are now open to private enterprises. This is not out of government goodwill, but due to a lack of funds, hoping to entice private enterprises to invest in infrastructure.

Third, launching an "innovation points system" to guide financial resources to precisely focus on serving technology-oriented enterprises. The Chinese government is attempting to support private enterprises through this planned economy-style scoring and assessment method, for example, by requiring a certain proportion of government procurement to go to private enterprises. However, this easily breeds corruption, as state-owned enterprises can set up private enterprise "fronts" to meet targets, and the benefits still won't flow outside.

In summary, these methods used by the Chinese government to support private enterprises appear very naive and anti-market, full of the vestiges of a planned economy, making it impossible for the economy to truly recover. They will only consume vast resources and ultimately may lead the nation to ruin.

**Q:** Lending to private enterprises and letting them invest in various large infrastructure projects seems like a closed loop, with private enterprises ultimately footing the bill?

**A:** Indeed, it's like swindling their money. If private enterprises don't see profit, why would they invest? China constantly engages in such unproductive policies because they don't fully trust market economics. Especially the current leadership, who has been "reversing course" all the way, returning to a planned economy. A planned economy model cannot revive the economy; it will only consume vast resources and lead the nation to ruin.

**Q:** Gold surged today?

**A:** Yes, as I said before, because liquidity expectations have improved, the Treasury Department will inject a large amount of funds. This year's investment logic has consistently been "hedging while buying US stocks." So, once liquidity becomes abundant, both safe-haven and risk assets will rise. This year's investment logic is to hedge while buying risk assets, hence the synchronized upward trend in gold and US stocks.

**Q:** $2,000 per person?

**A:** It's not that easy to distribute; it might not materialize.

**Q:** Is there any recent news about Fannie Mae going public?

**A:** Reportedly, discussions are still ongoing. The US government will certainly take it into conservatorship, but I believe its eventual divestiture and relisting are foreseeable.

**Q:** When will you stop being optimistic about Intel?

**A:** Currently, I'm optimistic. The AI sector has just begun, and it's not yet at a point where major fluctuations would occur. I'm generally quite optimistic about the leading companies in this space.

**Q:** There's been a large-scale inventory check and e-commerce tax补 lately?

**A:** Yes, I saw China Business News report today that many people in Hangzhou and Shanghai who invest in US stocks have received calls demanding back taxes. They are indeed very short on money right now.

**Q:** CPI data is basically not worth looking at?

**A:** Yes, CPI has little impact. As I said, this year's "anti-involution" and so on, just grab a bit of data, and the fluctuation will only be in the tenths of a percent, which is meaningless. The economy hasn't recovered, so CPI won't go up at all.

**Q:** Is the recent healthcare reform bearish for the US insurance industry?

**A:** Such minor negative news is not very significant. Look, Warren Buffett is still buying the dip in Berkshire Hathaway's insurance business. Their entire industry has too high a moat; it doesn't matter whether the federal government provides money or not. So, what you perceive as negative news, in my view, is merely a ripple, not a significant bearish factor.

Alright, if there are no other questions, I'll see you tomorrow. Wishing everyone happy trading and prosperity.