2026年市场展望：回顾与宏观政策基调
在圣诞节后的这一周，我们迎来2026年的市场展望。首先，回顾过去一年，我们的市场预测表现“不算太好”，尤其是在股票方面，我们曾预测标普500指数将从约6000点下跌至5500点，但实际走势却接近7000点，方向和幅度均判断失误。黄金的表现则远超预期，尽管我们预测其将有良好表现，但70%的涨幅（从26000点至4500点，此处原文可能为笔误，应为2600点至4500点或类似数值）远超3000点的目标，显示出极大的低估。利率方面，我们曾预测10年期国债收益率将从4.6%降至4%，目前约在4.15%，方向正确但幅度略有不足。总体而言，在三个主要预测中，我们仅在两个方向上判断正确。
展望2026年，政策层面正发生显著转变。特朗普总统明确表达了对低利率的诉求，这意味着市场定价的利率水平可能低于预期，这对市场构成利好。同时，总统似乎正转向财政刺激模式，为即将到来的中期选举做准备。历史上，总统所属政党在中期选举中通常会失去国会控制权，因此，为了提高胜选几率，政府有动力采取措施提振经济和市场。例如，近期已宣布的对服务行业员工的“1776奖金”以及推动2000美元关税退款支票，都显示出其通过财政刺激来提振市场的意图。然而，考虑到总统近期的民调数字以及历史趋势，共和党维持国会控制权面临挑战。
这种政治格局的变化，正如华裔播客主Vincent Dawir在其播客中与Kevin Mureer的讨论所指出的，使得政治博弈的风险 stakes 显著升高。当政治权力斗争进入“赢则生，输则死”的境地时，例如巴西前总统卢拉（在入狱后重返总统职位）和博索纳罗（卸任后入狱）的经历，以及韩国、台湾甚至法国前总统尼古拉·萨科齐的遭遇，都表明权力更迭伴随着对政治对手的清算。在美国，特朗普总统利用法律系统对莱蒂西亚·詹姆斯等提起诉讼，这反映出一种将法律武器化以解决政治分歧的趋势。尽管他本人在竞选期间也曾面临大量诉讼，但将法律系统用于政治目的，即选择性执法，使得原本可能不会被起诉的行为也可能被追究。在法律条文极其庞杂的今天，几乎无人能完全规避法律风险。因此，可以预见，为了避免政治清算，各方将不遗余力地“泵”高市场。在这种环境下，即使市场图表看似“toppy”（顶部形态），也难以看空。
在宏观政策转向宽松和财政刺激的预期下，尽管人工智能（AI）可能是一个巨大的泡沫，一旦破裂将拖累科技股占比较高的主要股指，但短期内市场可能继续上涨。我们已看到一些大宗商品（如黄金、白银、铝、钢、铜）的轮动迹象，这表明资金正在从科技股中部分流出。然而，由于股指的科技股权重过高，AI的任何波动都将显著影响大盘。因此，基本情景预测是，至少在明年上半年，市场将继续走高。至于下半年，AI泡沫的破裂、总统可能失去国会控制权导致刺激工具减少，以及美元走弱吸引外资从美股撤离等因素，都可能导致市场在下半年转为下跌。初步估计，标普500指数可能在2026年下跌至6500点。
Original English
Hello my friends. So today is the day after Christmas. I want to wish everyone a merry Christmas. Now this week of course was a very very quiet week. So today let's do our markets outlook for 2026. Now before we do that of course we have to revisit how our outlook did last year. Honestly not that great. But first let's start with equities. So last year when the S&P was trading about 6,000, I was thinking we would have a pretty negative year and gave a target of 5,500 and that was just totally totally wrong. Not just wrong in magnitude but in direction as well. Uh it looks like we are just a hair's width from 7,000. So that was really really bad. And looking at gold uh last year when gold was trading at 26,000 I thought we would have a very good year for gold. uh thinking that it would be you know around 3,000 and man we did have a good year in gold but whoa way way way more than I ever expected gold is up 70% year to date at you know just 4500 so whereas that was directionally correct still the the the 3000 outlook target was very very uh understated and the last thing of course was rates uh last year we wereing being about 4.6 on the 10 year. I thought rates would come down to around 4%. It looks like rates are about 4.15, still above 4%, but directionally though, still in the right direction. So, um, overall not that great. I'd say at least two out of the three we did get the direction correct. So, uh, hopefully we'll do better this year. Remember, this is not any sort of advice. This is for entertainment purposes based on my best judgment with the information that I have as of today. Of course, many things change in the markets and I do uh change my view as facts change but I will never update my outlook. The changes I have on my market views are in my market view portfolio on my website which we'll talk about uh later on. But for this year though, let's start with what everyone cares about the most, the S&P 500. Now, when I look at the chart of the S&P 500, honestly, it looks like we've been basically stuck here for some time. It it even looks a little bit toppy. So, you know, I'm my best guess is that we will get above 7,000 maybe maybe um next week. But next year though, so on the one hand, it's clear to me that policy is shifting in a pretty big way. So you have President Trump who is adamant adamant that he wants low interest rates. And so whatever the market is pricing in next year, I'm guessing that it's going to be a little bit lower and again that's going to be positive for the market. Also seems like the president is gearing up into fiscal stimulus mode. So next year is the midterm elections. Historically speaking, uh, whoever wins the presidency usually loses Congress, uh, during the midterm elections. That's a, you know, very, very high likelihood thing. Um, but, you know, I no one wants to lose elections, so they want to do whatever they can to try to, uh, improve their chances. Now, we had a taste of this just last week when the president announced uh, 1776 bonus payments to all service employees. And of course, he's trying to push for $2,000 tariff refund checks to the American public. I don't know if they can do it, but that kind of shows his thinking. He wants to do fiscal stimulus. He wants to boost the market. He wants to see if he can get elected, at least not elected, if the Republicans can continue to hold Congress, which is very difficult given the setup, given uh historical trends, and of course given his polling numbers. President has not been doing very well when it comes to polling. Now an interesting observation that uh Vincent Dawir made in on his podcast with um Kevin Mureer on the market huddle which is a great podcast that I recommend is that you know it seems like as the politics change the stakes go much higher and so there's more of an impetus to to not lose elections. Uh for example uh who is the current president in Brazil or president Lula? Where was president Lula before he was president? Well jail. uh who was the former president of Brazil, president Bossaro. Where is he today? Jail. And you know, this is this is kind of like uh it seems like it's kind of like the Game of Thrones, right? As uh Cersei Lannister memorably said, you win or you die. And so the trend seems to be that when you have power, you persecute your political enemies. And so when you lose power, there's a high likelihood that bad things happen to you. And this is really common in countries. I pointed out in Brazil, but it happens a lot all over the world. South Korea for example, very common for former presidents to end up in jail, uh, in Taiwan, a former president is also in jail for corruption. And of course, it even happens in places like like France, you know, former president Nicholas Sarcoi spent a few weeks in jail as well. So uh what I observe is that in the past few years say so looking at what President Trump has been doing uh he's been filing lawsuits against uh Leticia James Comey so very much using the legal system to you know carry out some settle some political disputes. Now to be fair this also happened to him when he was running for presidents. You remember he had all sorts of people come out and launched all sorts of lawsuits against him. Leticia James memorably tried to um you know caus some troubles for a loan that the president got from Deutsch Bank where the president allegedly inflated his real estate asset holdings to get a better loan but of course you know everyone does that. The bank conducts their own due diligence and the loan was repaid. This is something that everyone does um and but the president was singled out for it. Right? So often times what happens when you have um politically motivated prosecutions isn't that they so much that they bend the law which that happens as well but selective persecution selective prosecution where things that would have normally never been uh be prosecuted end up being prosecuted. Right? The enormous amount of laws uh no one can really fully stay in compliance. So, you know, show me the man and I'll show you the uh the lawn fracture or something like that. So, it seems like the trend in the United States is more of a weaponization of the legal system and so no one wants to lose and so they're going to do everything they can to try to pump the market up. Um so for me, I just can't be bearish in this scenario like policy is shifting towards accommodation even though the chart does look a bit toppy. Even though I believe that AI is kind of a huge bubble and it when it deflates it will take the major indexes down since so much of the indexes are these you know these max 7 tech names. We do see some some violent rotations. Right now you see uh commodities right now it's mostly like you know gold silver related stuff but in aluminum in steel you also see these industrial metals doing well so and copper as well. So you do see a bit of a rotation under the surface but again the indexes are just really tech heavy and so we do if we do have this AI pop um it it will it will impact indexes. So, you know, base cases, I think that, you know, we're going to go higher, at least in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, though, again, that's a lot of time. Maybe that's time for the A bubble to pop. Maybe at that time, the market is becoming increasingly concerned about potentially the president losing Congress. And in that case, it also loses a lot of levers to stimulate. And so, maybe they're pricing out less uh, you know, less ways to boost the market. Maybe, as I've talked about many times, um, that the dollar continues to weaken and maybe we have foreign investors maybe rebalance out a little bit out of the US since they are very he was heavy. So I I do think that next year is going to be a down year in the markets. Just ballpark it. Let's say uh 6,500. So 500 lower than we are today. Again, just just guessing here. Just I think we'll have a volatile year. But my instinct is that uh if you just you know stayed in cash the next year out of the S&P, you probably feel positive at the end of the year. So, let's put 6,500 down for the S&P 500.资产类别预测：股票、贵金属与利率走向
在具体资产类别方面，标普500指数的图表显示出一定的顶部形态，但政策转向和潜在的财政刺激提供了上行动力。我们预计至少在2026年上半年，指数将继续走高。然而，需要警惕的是，人工智能（AI）可能是一个巨大的泡沫，一旦破裂，将对科技股占主导地位的股指产生巨大冲击。尽管如此，近期市场已出现资金从科技股向大宗商品轮动的迹象，包括黄金、白银以及铝、钢、铜等工业金属。但由于股指的科技股权重过高，AI的波动仍将是影响大盘的关键因素。因此，我们设定的基本情景是，市场在2026年上半年走高，但下半年可能因AI泡沫破裂、总统失去国会控制权导致刺激工具减少，以及美元走弱等因素而转为下跌。初步预测，标普500指数在2026年底可能达到6500点。
贵金属方面，黄金近期表现强劲，而其“小兄弟”白银更是呈现出“抛物线式”的上涨，单日涨幅高达7%。尽管存在实物需求紧张、全球财政赤字以及潜在的降息等基本面支撑，但如此迅猛的上涨往往伴随着交易心理和群体心理的驱动，可能指向一个“blowoff top”（冲高回落顶部）。这种极端的波动性令人担忧，预示着市场可能存在较高的杠杆和脆弱性。因此，尽管我们仍看好黄金和白银在2026年全年表现积极，但预计在短期内的狂热过后，市场将进入一段时期的盘整。我们的预测是，黄金价格将在2026年底达到5000点（相较于当前约4500点）。
最后是利率市场。特朗普总统的“特朗普主义”明确主张降低利率，并认为央行不应在市场上涨时加息。他倾向于任命支持降息的官员，例如Myron（总统经济顾问委员会成员）在美联储的立场就倾向于大幅降息。我们坚信，2026年将迎来比市场预期更多的降息。市场普遍预计美联储会将利率降至3%左右，但我们的基本情景是降至2.5%。特朗普政府的政治影响力以及公众对低利率的普遍支持（因为许多人面临购房、车贷等压力），将使得大幅降息成为可能，并且不太会遇到强烈的反对。尽管如此，10年期国债收益率的变动并非完全由联邦基金利率决定，还受到**期限溢价（term premium）和掉期利差（swap spreads）**等因素影响。我们预测，10年期国债收益率将在2026年底降至4%左右。
Original English
Next, let's go to gold. Now, man, gold has been really on a tear. Now, if you look at it little brother, silver, as of recording, silver is up 7% on the day. It's just going parabolic. Now, there are many many narratives for this. It does seem like there is a squeeze for physical and in silver at least. Uh again, globally, a lot of fiscal deficits. uh maybe the US is going to cut rates more and so forth. So there are good fundamental factors for this but at the end of the day if you just know a little bit about trading about human psychology it looks like it's going for a blowoff top right and so uh I want to be positive on the precious metals but when I see something like this silver going up 7% of the day on the day it's going to burn out right it's going to it's going to surge it's going parabolic I don't know how high it can go this is purely an uh something about it's purely about trading psychology ology herd psychology here. So, uh it makes me really cautious. Now, at the end of the day, I still believe uh silver, gold are going to have positive years, but seeing all this volatility, seeing all this upward parabolic action, it makes me uncomfortable. So, that tells me that we have a lot of leverage, fragility. We're probably going to consolidate for probably a good part of the year after this parabolic thing blows off. So, my best guess, gold ends the year higher next year. Say five, no, sorry, 5,000. So, we're around where are we today? Actually, 4500, right? Around 4,500. So, 5,000. So, um yeah, but I I don't think it's going to be as swift and I don't I think it's going to be choppy because a lot of stuff is happening. Okay, lastly, let's talk about rates. Now this is the part that I think is going to be the most interesting thing. Now the president is very clear, right? He gives you his Trump doctrine. The Trump doctrine as he lays out is that oh these central bankers so foolish whenever the market goes up they start u hiking rates to try to hit it down. That doesn't make sense. We don't want people who do that. We want people who you know make the market higher. We want people to cut rates. And it's basically a litmus test. If you want to be Fed chair under the Trump administration, you have to be uh you have to be committed to lower risks. And again, we have Governor Myron there, president's council of economic adviser on the Fed uh as governor for a few months. And what does he applicate? Big rate cuts, right? If you look at the dot plot, he's the guy who always wants 50 basis point cuts. So, the president wants lower rate cuts. Anybody appointed by him is going to want more rate cuts, lower rates as well now. And uh my full belief is that that is what's going to happen. We're going to get more rate cuts than the market is pricing in. Market thinks that maybe we'll cut to about 3% next year. Uh my base case is that we cut to about 2.5 next year. And so I think the market is not appreciating uh just how many cuts a Trump Fed can get. And you know there's all sorts of talk, oh it's not just the chair, we got all these presidents and so forth. But you know the way that I look at how the world works president much much more influential has the support of Congress and what I my sense is that you know when you're looking at the government the ultimate constraint is is political uh is political capital political will does the public support what you're doing what I find really interesting is that even as the president is you know clamoring for rate cuts you don't really hear anyone in the Democratic party just opposing this so much. My sense is that rate cuts are broadly popular among the public regardless if you're a Democrat or Republican uh because a lot of people are suffering. They want to buy homes. They feel like they're falling behind on their car payments and so they want lower rates as well. So this lower rate thing is kind of something the public wants and so you're not going to get a lot of push back. And so if the president will do whatever he he needs to do uh to get uh rates lower, I think that there will not be enough push back to stop him. So we are going to get big cuts next year. So even though we're going to get big cuts next year, that doesn't completely flow through to the 10-year. Again, the 10-year is largely largely the expected path of pet policy, but you also have things like, you know, term premium, swap spreads, and so forth. So my best guess is that the 10 year ends lower. Let's say about 5 I'm sorry 4%. So we're about 4.15. So lower to about 4% at the end of next year.利率政策的深层逻辑与经济影响
许多人担心，如果特朗普政府领导下的美联储大幅降息，可能会引发债券市场的“债券大军”（bond vigilantes）式的反弹，导致利率飙升。然而，从我的角度来看，这种担忧并未反映现实。利率的走向很大程度上取决于市场对美联储政策路径的预期。例如，去年曾出现过美联储降息但10年期国债收益率反而上升的现象。这并非因为降息本身引发了通胀担忧，而是市场当时认为美联储在过度紧缩并可能导致经济衰退，因此在美联储采取行动后，市场反而消化了更多未来的降息预期，从而推高了长期利率。
更重要的是，将短期利率与通胀和经济活动直接挂钩的传统模型，即“短期利率走低，通胀飙升，债券市场失控”的逻辑，已被历史反复证明是无效的。回顾2008年金融危机后，全球利率降至零，央行大规模购债，但许多经济体（包括美国和日本）却长期面临低通胀甚至通失缩的困境，央行费尽心思也未能将通胀推升至目标水平。这表明，短期利率与经济活动及通胀之间的联系远没有想象中那么强。即使近期美国将短期利率提升至5%，经济也并未陷入衰退，GDP持续增长。
从企业运营的角度看，利率支出只是企业众多成本中的一项，包括劳动力、原材料、租金、营销等。在服务业占主导的现代经济中，利率支出通常不是最大的成本项。更关键的是企业的营收和产品需求。即使利率高企，如果企业预期收入将大幅增长，需求旺盛，它们仍会继续经营。因此，短期利率对经济活动的直接影响被夸大了。
一个思想实验可以说明这一点：如果美联储突然宣布将通胀目标从2%提高到5%，这并非意味着通胀必然飙升，而是表明央行可能需要大幅降息以实现新目标。在这种情况下，债券市场很可能会出现大幅反弹，因为市场会预期到长期的低利率环境。虽然有人会担心这会导致长期债券被抛售，但关键在于央行能否实现其目标。过去几十年的经验表明，央行对实际经济的影响力是有限的，它们无法仅凭自身力量完全实现通胀目标。因此，市场不可能完全确信央行能达到其设定的目标。
综上所述，2026年将是债券市场表现良好的一年。我们预计“特朗普式”的美联储将推动利率大幅下降，10年期国债收益率可能降至4%左右。
Original English
So a lot of people are I just want to address something really quick. A lot of people are like no now if the if the Trump Fed cuts rates really low you know the bond market will revolt. We'll have this big bond vigilante episode and rates will explode higher. Now from my view that is definitely not how the world works. Now rates obviously largely the expected path of Fed policy. Now uh a few months ago last year we had an episode where the Fed cut rates and we had the tenure actually rise. It's actually really easy to see what happened there if you look at the short-term interest rate futures. What happened was the market was afraid. The Fed was overtightening and was pricing in a recession. And as the Fed got ahead of that priced in got ahead of that the market actually priced out future rate cuts the market became less concerned about a recession and so they priced out future cuts and so the tenure rose. So it's it's you know if you look at these short-term interest rate futures it's actually quite clear what happened there. Now, something else I would really like to emphasize is that this entire mental model about, you know, short-term interest rates go low, inflation comes roaring back, and then bond market goes out of control. That's just obviously obviously not how the world works, right? Full stop. We have decades and decades of of experience to show that's not how the world works. Now, think back just after the great financial crisis. Interest rates are at zero. Fed buying bonds massively, interest rates super low, and yet there was like below target inflation for for a decade. Like the Fed desperately trying to get inflation up, but they just couldn't. And you can look across this ocean and look at Japan as well, right? They have low inflation, disinflation, deflation for decades and decades now. They're not even doing um you know, Kiwi. They're doing negative interest rates. They're buying equities and they still couldn't get this inflation up. So, the connection between short-term interest rates and economic activity, inflation, that's something that's just not that strong, right? We have decades and decades of of experience that shows that. Furthermore, more recently, we got short-term interest rates up all the way to 5%. Everyone is expecting a recession and we did not get a recession, right? GDP continues to hum along. So you have to adjust your mental model by this very very obvious evidence. But that's just not how the world works. And it's really easy to see, let's say, just to think about if you think about it a little bit, have a little bit of business experience to see why it's not how the world works. Let's say you're a business, right? Your interest rate expense is one of your costs, one of your expenses, but it's only one of of many. You have labor costs, you have material costs, you got rent, uh you got to pay regulatory fees and advertising, marketing, so so forth. And different businesses are going to have a different proportion of this. But for the most businesses, interest expense is not going to be the biggest expense. If you're a real estate investor, maybe if you're building a huge factory, yeah, it's going to be a big part of your uh expenses, but most businesses aren't. We are in a serviceoriented economy, right? So that's just not how that works. But more importantly, it's also about the top line as well. If you're a business, you have you're going to think about your revenue, right? What is your expected growth in market share? Um how how popular do you think your product will be and so forth. So even if uh interest rates are very high, your interests are are high, but if you think that revenues are going to go higher, you're going to have great demand for your product, you're you're still going to do your business, right? So, it's just uh interest rate expense, short-term interest rates, very influential for the market broadly, but very obviously just one part of any business and just not that impactful on economic activity. Here's a really interesting thought experiment uh to think about. Let's say tomorrow J Powell just everyone comes out, you know, stands on stage and just tells everyone, "Guys, I'm going to change the the inflation target." It was 2% but you know I had a conversation with my friend President Trump and I suddenly I saw the light. This is just not the way to run the economy. I want the inflation target to be 5%. What do you think would happen? Does the bond market go crazy? Uh the economy implode? Some people will think that. But I think if that were the case, you would have a massive, massive rally in the bond market because what that tells you is that the Fed is uh way below its inflation target. So what is it going to do? It's going to cut rates, maybe cut to zero. And if you have that huge, huge rate cut priced in for the next few years, that's going to drag the long end down in a big way. Now, you can also think, whoa, but the Fed is saying that he wants a 5% inflation target. Of course, we got to sell the long end. But here's the thing. Can the Fed achieve its target? The obvious obvious thing you see from decade from the past few decades is no. A central bank has enormous power over interest rates, financial markets. But on the real economy, its power is limited. It cannot achieve its alone achieve its uh inflation targets. So uh that cannot be priced in with certainty. So in any case, next year I think it's going to be a good year for bonds. I think we'll get a Trump Fed going to put rates much lower and I'd say, you know, 10 year will go down, term premium will go up, say about 4%. In any case, um again, these are just uh my best views based on what I have today.个人投资策略与年度总结
回顾本年度的市场观点组合（market view portfolio），我们成功地保护了客户免受了“解放日末日”式的20%大跌。然而，我们也犯了一个错误，误判了市场的反弹时机，错失了部分反弹收益。不过，我们在11月的下跌中及时进行了回补。更重要的是，我们的投资组合在年初就对黄金持极度看涨态度，并配置了巨额仓位。因此，尽管在股票判断上有所失误，但截至目前，我们的整体表现仍比标普500指数高出10%。这说明即使在某些具体资产的预测上出现偏差，整体策略仍可能取得不错的结果。展望2026年，虽然无法给出任何承诺，但我认为这将是充满趣味和机遇的一年。