投身金融的初心与早期经历
欢迎收听“好公司”播客节目,今天我们邀请到了肯·格里芬,他是史上最优秀的投资者之一。
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Welcome to the podcast “In Good Company.” Today we are joined by Ken Griffin, one of the best investors of all time.
肯的金融之旅始于他在哈佛大学的宿舍。
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Ken started his journey in finance from his Harvard dorm.
他创立了Citadel(城堡投资:全球顶级的对冲基金和做市商),其宏伟目标是成为史上最成功的投资公司。
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He founded Citadel, which has a great ambition of being the most successful investment firm of all times.
正是这种雄心壮志让我们非常欣赏,所以非常欢迎肯。
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Now that's the kind of ambitions that we like, so very welcome, Ken.
很高兴今天能来到这里,非常感谢您抽出时间接受这次采访。
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Great to have you on, it is a pleasure to be here today, thank you so much for taking the time to do this interview.
那么,最初是什么促使您进入金融行业的呢?
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Fantastic. Now, what motivated you to go into finance in the first place?
我一直对股市感兴趣,原因我自己也完全不明白。
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So I've always been interested in the stock market for reasons I don't fully understand.
三年级时,我写了一篇论文,阐述了我想要了解股市如何运作的愿望。
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And in third grade, I wrote a paper where I set forth that I wanted to learn how the stock market works.
我在这条道路上已经走了近40年,但仍然感觉自己处于学习曲线的起点。
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I've been on that journey now for almost 40 years, and I still feel like I'm at the beginning of the learning curve.
全球的股票市场充满了有趣而复杂的问题。
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The equity markets around the world are just awash in interesting and complex problems.
商业模式、盈利能力以及投资者心理的交织,这真是一段永无止境的学习之旅,试图理解如何评估企业价值以及如何在股市中成为一名成功的投资者。
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The intersection of business models, earnings, and then the psychology of investors, it's really an endless journey of learning, trying to appreciate how to value businesses and how to be a successful investor in the stock market.
这简直是世界上最复杂的游戏。
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It is just the most complex game in the world.
当您在哈佛宿舍开始创业时,您的愿景是什么?您认为它会变成什么样?
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Now, when you started back at your Harvard dorm, what was your vision? What do you think this could be?
有趣的是,在我大一的时候,我在大学宿舍里购买了两份Home Shopping Network(家庭购物网络:一家通过电视和在线平台销售商品的零售公司)的看跌期权(Put Contracts: 赋予持有人在特定日期或之前以特定价格出售资产的权利,但没有义务)。
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Well, what's interesting is in my college dorm as a freshman, I bought two put contracts in Home Shopping Network.
从某种意义上说,我的职业生涯要归功于一篇优秀的报道。
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And in some sense, I owe my career to good journalism.
《福布斯》杂志上有一篇格雷特·摩根森(Gret Morgenson)的文章,她提出了一个论点,解释了为什么Home Shopping Network是当时的热门股票。
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There was an article in Forbes by Gret Morgenson where she set forth a thesis as to why Home Shopping Network was the meme stock of that moment in time.
我非常喜欢她的论点,于是我买了这两份看跌期权,幸运的是,从我职业生涯的角度来看,这只股票不久后就暴跌了。
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And I loved her thesis, I bought these two put contracts, and fortunately, from the perspective of my career, the stock cratered shortly thereafter.
准备好了吗?我赚了几千美元。
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And ready for this, I made a few thousand.
但是,你和我都清楚,当你还是大学新生时,如果能赚到两三千美元,那简直是全世界的钱。
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But great, you and I both know when you're when you're a freshman in college, if you make $2,000 or $3,000, that's all the money in the world.
当我卖出这些看跌期权时,做市商(Market Maker: 在金融市场中提供买卖报价,通过买卖价差获利并提供流动性的机构或个人)支付给我的价格低于其内在价值。
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When I sold those put contracts, the market maker paid me less than their intrinsic value.
这让我对衍生品(Derivatives: 价值来源于标的资产的金融合约)的定价产生了浓厚的兴趣,因为我意识到,我购买这些看跌期权的时机非常幸运,它们的到期日恰好在股票暴跌之后。
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And that made me very curious about the pricing of derivatives because I realized that I got very lucky in buying those puts with an expiration that fell after the stock had cratered.
但做市商却获得了无风险利润。
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But the market maker made a risk-free profit.
我非常非常想了解衍生品的定价,这促使我开始理解可转换债券(Convertible Bonds: 一种可以在特定条件下转换为公司股票的债券)的定价,这也是我从大学宿舍开始第一个对冲基金的领域。
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And I was very, very interested in trying to learn about the pricing of derivatives, and that took me to understanding the pricing of convertible bonds, which is the area that I started in from my college dorm room when I began my first hedge fund.
市场机遇与投资哲学
您认为现在的市场机遇是否和您刚开始时一样多?
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Do you think there are as many opportunities in the markets now as they were when you started?
我认为今天的机遇与我刚开始时有所不同。
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I think the opportunity set's different today than when I started.
例如,衍生品定价知识的普及程度令人难以置信。
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You know, obviously, the commoditization of the know-how of how to price derivatives, for example, has been incredible.
世界各地有大量的金融工程硕士和博士项目。
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You know, there's tremendous number of programs around the world with Masters in PhD and financial engineering.
因此,作为一个社会,我们在投资方面的知识水平确实提高了。
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So as a society, we've really increased our know-how when it comes to investing.
但反过来说,今天的市场规模要大得多,而且是全球性的,产品种类也更多。
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But conversely, the markets today are much, much bigger, and they're global, and there's far more product proliferation.
投资者总会有小众机会,可以获得洞察力并在交易中获得竞争优势。
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There will always be niche opportunities for investors to gain an insight with and to have a competitive advantage in trading.
您在初期犯过哪些错误,并从中吸取教训并加以改进?
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What were some of the mistakes you made in the beginning, which you learned from and have built on?
我犯过所有可能犯的错误,不幸的是,有些错误我还犯了两三次。
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I mean, I've made every mistake you can possibly make, and unfortunately, I've made some of them two or three times.
然而,金融行业的关键在于努力从成功和失败中学习。
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So the key in finance, though, is to try to learn from both your successes and from your failures.
我认为人们经常做的一件事是,他们不研究自己的赢家,不尝试从那些成功的交易中学习他们做对了什么。
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And I think that one of the things that people do too often is they don't study their winners, they don't try to learn what did they get right in that winning trade.
因为很明显,你在金融领域赚钱是因为你有赢家。
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Because let's be clear, you make you make money in finance when you have winners.
我们都倾向于过分强调从失败中学习,而对从成功中学习的重视程度远远不够。
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And we all tend to put way too much emphasis on trying to learn from our losers and not nearly enough emphasis in trying to learn from our winners.
那么,您最大的成功是什么?我的意思是,如果您要总结您的成功策略,最好的做法是什么?
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So what have been your big winners? What I mean, what what if you were to try to summarize your your kind of winning strategies, what what's been the best things you've done?
我们作为投资者最成功的地方在于,我们在吸收信息、处理信息和对信息做出反应方面拥有明确的竞争优势。
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So where we are most successful as investors is where we have a clear competitive advantage in assimilating information, processing that information, and reacting to that information.
这就是我们做得最好的地方。
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That's that's where we do best.
因此,我们围绕着“我们从事研究业务”这一原则来构建公司。
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And so we architect the firm around this principle of we are in we're in the research business.
这项业务的核心是研究,无论是选股还是预测天气以交易大宗商品,它首先是一项研究业务。
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And the core of this business is research, it's good old-fashioned, whether it's stock picking or forecasting the weather to trade commodities, it's a research business first and foremost.
而交易仅仅是我们实现研究价值的方式,就这么简单。
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And trading is simply how we monetize our research, it's just that simple.
美国经济现状与财政挑战
当您审视所有数据点和研究时,您认为美国经济目前处于何种状况?
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When you look at all your data points and all your research now, where is the US economy?
如果我们审视今天美国经济的数据点,我们正处于一个非常有趣、前所未有的境地。
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So if I if I look at the mosaic of the data points that we have in the US economy today, we're in a very interesting unchartered territory.
你和我都一生都在以某种形式研究经济学。
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You and I have have both studied economics our entire life in one form or another.
我只想问你一个问题:你有没有想过美国会在接近充分就业(Full Employment: 经济中所有愿意工作的人都能找到工作的状态)的情况下,通货膨胀率在3%左右浮动,而政府却在大肆挥霍?
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Let me just ask you a question, would you've ever imagined the United States to be at near full employment with inflation running somewhere around 3 and change percent and yet the government is on a massive spending binge?
不,我不会想到。
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No, I wouldn't have expected that.
我的意思是,作为经济学家,我们正处于前所未有的境地。
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I mean, as economists, we are we are just in unchartered territory.
我们正处于经济周期的那个时刻,通常你会努力偿还政府债务,努力整理财政状况,努力创造能力以在不可避免的雨天来临时保持灵活性。
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That we are at that moment in the cycle where generally you're trying to pay down your government debt, you're trying to put your fiscal house in order, you're trying to create that capacity to have flexibility when the rainy day inevitably comes.
然而,就在此时此刻,美国经济几乎以或超过其产能的速度增长,政府却仍在进行大规模的财政刺激。
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And yet right here, right now, with the US economy pretty much growing at or beyond capacity, the government is still engaged in a massive, massive degree of fiscal stimulus.
这导致经济中出现我们不乐见的更高通胀,并使美国长期处于更加不稳定的境地,在应对下一次衰退或更糟的萧条时,自由度更小。
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That's creating hotter inflation than we would like to see in the economy, and it is leaving the United States in a more precarious long-term position and having fewer degrees of freedom to deal with the next the next recession or God forbid depression.
您是财政赤字及其危险的强烈倡导者,您为何如此担忧?
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You are a vocal advocate about the fiscal deficit and the dangers of it. Why are you so concerned about it?
你和我都成长于对挤出效应(Crowding Out: 政府支出增加导致私人投资减少的经济现象)的担忧时代,即全球政府赤字的规模会挤出私营部门获取资本的机会。
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I mean, the the you and I both grew up in the era of fears about crowding out that the scale the government deficits around the world would crowd out private sector access to capital.
当然,这种担忧仍然存在于我们这些考虑长期过程的人当中:我们如何确保不会因为政府支出而挤出私营部门?
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And of course, that's that fear still exists amongst those of us who think about a very long-term process, how do we make sure that we do not crowd out the private sector from propagate government spending?
但还有另一个重要点,那就是公平问题。
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But there's a there's another important point, which is the matter of of equity.
你知道,今天全世界都非常关注公平问题,例如,收入不平等是否过高?
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You know, there's an incredible focus around the world today around equity, our our is income inequality, for example, too high?
这是一个非常关键的时刻,从某种意义上说,我们正在向未来借贷,我们正在向我们的子孙后代借贷,以维持一种与生产力或发达经济体中正在出现的工作文化不符的生活水平。
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This is an incredible moment of just in some sense, um, we're borrowing from the future, we're borrowing from our children, our grandchildren, and our great-grandchildren right here, right now, to maintain a standard of living that is not in sync with either productivity or with the culture of work that's emerging across the developed economy.
在我看来,这种程度的支出以及我们现在花钱的方式,从代际公平的角度来看,是不公平的。
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It's just not fair as a matter of equity across generations for us to be engaged in this level of spending in the form that we're spending the money right here, right now, in my opinion.
那么,如果您是总统的顾问,或者负责国家的财政,您会怎么做?
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So if you were advising the president or indeed were in charge of the country's finances, what would you do?
首先,最重要的是我们需要提高西方世界的生产力。
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Look, job number one is we need to improve productivity in the Western world, like there's nothing more important than we need to do than to increase productivity both in Europe and the United States.
这是实现可持续繁荣的途径。
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This is this is the path to sustain prosperity.
那么,我们如何提高生产力呢?
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Now, how do we improve productivity?
你和我都清楚,我们需要改善我们的教育体系,尤其是在美国,从幼儿园到高中(K-12)的教育正在使我们的孩子在与世界其他地区竞争时处于严重的劣势。
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You and I both know we need to improve our education system, particularly in the United States, K through 12 education is leaving our children at a material competitive disadvantage relative to the rest of the world.
更重要的是,他们在生活中处于绝对劣势,他们没有接触到那些能让他们获得有回报和丰富职业生涯的思想和概念。
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And more importantly, in an absolute disadvantage in life, they just aren't having the exposure to the ideas and concepts that will that will give them give them their ability to earn a rewarding and rich career.
其次,居家办公现象无疑正在减少指导、协作、领导力发展和创新。
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Number two is the work-from-home phenomena is unquestionably reducing mentorship, collaboration, leadership development, and innovation.
现在是时候让我们的人们重新聚集在一起,进行协作、指导和培养领导者,这样在二三十年后,我们才不会因为今天的工作方式而陷入西方世界领导力赤字的严峻困境。
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And it's time that we bring our people back together to collaborate and to mentor and to develop leaders so that in 20 or 30 years, we're not left we're not left in the very frightening predicament of having a leadership deficit in the Western world because of today's work practices.
我对此感到担忧。
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And I worry about that.
那么,Citadel没有居家办公吗?
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So no home no home office in Citadel?
不,我们都回到了办公室工作。
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Uh, no, we uh, we're all back at work.
最棒的是,这带来了深远的心理健康影响。
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And the wonderful thing is the mental health ramifications are profound.
很高兴看到我的同事们全身心地投入工作,在工作中感到快乐,并且能够将个人生活和职业生活分开。
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It's it's so great to see my colleagues meaningfully engaged in their work, happy in their work, and having that separation of personal life and professional life.
所以,教育、重返办公室,我们还需要做些什么?
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So education, back to office, what else do we need to do?
教育、重返办公室、深思熟虑的政府监管,鼓励创业,鼓励中小型企业发展,从而在我们的经济中创造更多竞争,这非常重要。
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So education, back to office, thoughtful government regulation that encourages that encourages entrepreneurship, that encourages the growth of small and medium enterprises, that creates more competition in our economy, that's really important.
西方必须继续推行贸易政策,真正将自由贸易的利益带给北美和欧洲。
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And the West must continue to engage in trade policies that really bring the benefits of free trade across North America and Europe.
因此,我们真的需要反思并遏制我们两大洲之间的一些保护主义趋势,并创造更大的经济一体化。
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So some of the trends towards protectionism between our two continents, we really, really need to think about pulling back on and creating greater economic integration.
股市泡沫与AI浪潮
当我们审视所有这些事情时,股市是否处于泡沫之中?您如何看待股市?
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Now, when we look at all these kind of things, are we, um, is the stock market in a bubble or how do you see the stock market?
你知道,身处泡沫之中时,总是很难察觉,因为在泡沫之中,你总能找到明确的理由来解释价格为何如此。
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You know, it's it's always it's always very hard to know when you're in a bubble because when you're in the middle of the bubble, you have the clear justification for why prices are where they are.
你和我可以回顾一下互联网泡沫(Dot-com Bubble: 20世纪90年代末期,互联网相关股票估值过高,随后破裂的经济现象),当时我们主要谈论些什么?
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You know, you and I can go back to the dot bubble, what were the key things that we were talking about back in the height of the dot-com bubble?
你还记得那些对话吗?
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Do you do you remember some of those conversations?
当时谈论的是电子商务将如何彻底改变我们获取商品的方式。
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Right, it was about how e-commerce was going to radically change the way that we secured goods.
像“页面浏览量”这样的指标成了证券主导的定价指标。
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Metrics like eyeballs on pages became the dominant pricing metrics for securities.
但我们创造了一整套行话、一整套词汇、一整套框架来为当时正在发生的泡沫辩护和合理化。
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But we created a whole lingo, a whole vocabulary, a whole set of frameworks to justify and rationalize the bubble that was taking place back at the height of the dot frenzy.
有趣的是,20年后,我们当时认为会在互联网革命中发生的事情,很多都确实发生了。
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Now, what's interesting is jump forward 20 years, and many of the things that we thought were going to happen in the revolution have actually happened.
今天世界上许多最大的公司实际上在象征意义上与我们当时设想的互联网现象革命的业务相同或相似。
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And many of the biggest companies in the world today are actually symbolically the same businesses or similar businesses to what we had all envisioned was going to be the revolution of the dot phenomena.
所以有趣的是,我们有正确的论点,有正确的想法,但人们只是在一段时间内被估值冲昏了头脑。
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So what's interesting is is we had the right thesis, we had the right ideas, but people just got carried away in valuations for a period of time.
那么,我们现在是否被AI(Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能)的估值冲昏了头脑?
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And are we carried away now with are we carried away now with the AI evaluations, the AI the AI um frenzies is pretty pretty amazing to watch.
AI的狂热令人惊叹。
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The AI the AI um frenzies is pretty pretty amazing to watch.
令人着迷的是,我们能多快地看到一些AI成果融入我们的日常生活以及我们运营业务的方式中。
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What's going to be fascinating is how fast do we see some of the AI wins incorporated into both our daily lives and into how we run our businesses.
我认为这种采纳速度会非常快。
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That speed of adoption, I think, is going to be pretty quick.
然而,现在正在发生第二个趋势,那就是首席信息官或首席技术官重要性的提升。
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There's a second trend though that's happening right here, right now, it's the rise of the importance of your Chief Information or Chief Technology Officer.
在高级管理层和董事会中,人们真正关注数字化(Digitalization: 利用数字技术改进业务流程和运营)以及使用软件和分析来改进业务。
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Once again, in the C-suite, in the boardroom, there's a real focus on digitalization and the use of software and analytics to improve your business.
所以,有趣的是,当你和首席执行官们交谈时,他们会告诉你他们的公司如何拥抱AI,以及AI如何对他们的业务产生深远影响。
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So what's really interesting is when you talk to CEOs, they'll tell you about how their companies embraced AI and how it's making these profound impacts on their business.
但如果你剥开这些故事的表层,你会发现根本没有AI的参与。
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Now, if you peel back the onion of most these stories, there's no AI involved at all.
然而,其中涉及的是对现代能力和数字化的拥抱,以真正改进和提升美国和欧洲的企业。
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But what is involved is an embracing of the use of modern capabilities and digitalization to really improve and enhance American and European businesses.
所以我发现真正棒的是,AI重新开启了关于如何利用技术使我们的业务更成功、更有效地向消费者提供商品和价值的对话。
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So what's what's I find to be really great is that AI has reopened the dialogue about how to use technology to make our businesses more successful and more effective to delivering goods and value to consumers.
那么,Citadel是如何拥抱AI的呢?
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And Ken, how do you embrace AI at Citadel?
我们通过多种方式使用AI来提高团队成员的日常生产力。
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So we use it in a number of ways to enhance productivity day in and day out amongst our team members.
从某种意义上说,这就像我们许多人将在未来两三年内使用AI的方式一样,帮助起草电子邮件,帮助总结研究报告,帮助理解或撰写备忘录和其他日常业务流程所需的文档的引言。
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In some sense, the way that many of us will use AI over the next two or three years, helping to draft emails, helping to summarize research pieces, helping to understand or how to write the introductions to memos and other documentation that's required in the day-to-day flow of business.
我们还将其用于一些非常普通的任务,例如帮助标记数据。
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We also use it for some very mundane tasks, for example, to help tag data.
然后,我们将其用于一些非常重要的任务,例如如何帮助我们的软件工程师提高生产力。
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And then we use it for some very important tasks, such as how to help our software engineers be more productive.
因此,我们在公司内部对AI有各种各样的用途。
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So we've had a litany of uses of AI within our four walls.
如果我们回到机器学习(Machine Learning: 人工智能的一个分支,使计算机系统能够从数据中学习并改进,而无需明确编程),从某种意义上说,它是AI的源头,我们Citadel已经使用机器学习大约八九年了。
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If we go back to machine learning, which in some sense is the tree from which AI sprouts, we've used machine learning for over looking at the the date here on the screen for about eight or nine years here at Citadel.
机器学习在资产定价方面扮演着非常重要的角色,并且在资产风险管理方面偶尔也扮演着次要角色。
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And machine learning plays a very important role in how we think about the pricing of assets and has a small role in us thinking about risk management of assets from time to time.
但在资产定价方面,机器学习在Citadel确实扮演着重要角色。
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But pricing of assets, machine learning does play an important role here at Citadel.
Citadel的创立与发展
肯,我很想回顾一下您创立Citadel时的愿景。
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Ken, I'd love to go back to when you started Citadel and the vision you had for the firm.
那么,当您创立它时,您认为它会变成什么样?
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Um, so when you set it up, what did you think it could be?
嗯,那是一段回忆之旅,我将为您讲述一段非修正主义的历史。
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Well, that's um, that's a walk down memory lane, and I'll give you the history that that's not revisionist.
20岁时,我有一个机会为一家总部位于芝加哥的基金中的基金(Fund of Funds: 投资于其他基金而非直接投资证券的基金)管理一百万美元。
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20 years old, I had an opportunity to manage a million dollars for a fund of funds that was based in Chicago.
如果我做得好,他们会帮助我离开,创办自己的公司,并为我筹集一些资金。
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And if I did well, they'd help me leave, start my own business, and raise some capital for me.
所以Citadel是在我大学毕业一年多后成立的。
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So Citadel was started just over a year after I finished college.
我们在1990年11月筹集了大约450万美元,并以一种策略开始:交易股票挂钩衍生品、可转换债券和认股权证,与普通股相比。
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We raised about 4.5 million dollars of November of 1990, and we started with one strategy, which was the trading of equity link derivatives, convertible bonds, and warrants as compared to the common stock.
这就是Citadel的起源。
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So that was that was the genesis of Citadel.
这个故事中有几个关键点很重要。
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Now, there was there's a couple of key things that are important in the story.
第一,我相信你可以利用数学和软件来帮助理解这些定价关系,而当时世界上大多数人仍然在使用纸笔和经验法则。
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Number one is I believed you could use mathematics and software to help to understand these pricing relationships in an area where most of the world was still using paper, pencils, and rules of thumb.
我记得我们当时聘请了一位“火箭科学家”来帮助研究这些定价模型。
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And I remember we hired a rocket scientist back in those days to help work on these pricing models.
我一位来自某大银行的朋友打电话给我,笑着说:“你又不是想把人送上月球,你只是想交易债券。”
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And one of my friends from a major bank literally called me sort of laughing, he's like, you're not trying to put a man on the moon, you're trying to trade bonds.
现在,30多年过去了,他工作的那家银行已经倒闭了,而Citadel和Citadel Securities(Citadel证券:Citadel旗下的做市商业务,全球最大的做市商之一)是金融市场中最重要的两家公司。
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Now, jump forward 30 some years, that bank he worked for is no longer in business, and Citadel and Citadel Securities are two of the most important firms in the world in the financial markets.
我们确实在某种意义上乘上了金融数学兴起的浪潮,尽管这种浪潮在某种意义上早已达到顶峰。
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We did we did manage to in some sense ride the wave of the rise of mathematics in finance, which has in some sense long since crested.
我们今天在日常工作中理所当然地接受了80年代和90年代首次使用的数学概念。
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We all take for granted the mathematical concepts that were really first utilized in the 80s and 90s in our day-to-day work today.
驾驭这股浪潮面临的挑战是什么?
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What's been the challenges in riding this wave?
我认为驾驭这股浪潮最大的挑战是必须培养自己的人才(Talent: 具有特殊技能和能力的人)。
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So so I think the the largest challenge in riding this wave has been the necessity to create your own talent.
在早期,你必须雇佣那些背景与当时华尔街通常发现的背景截然不同的人。
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So in the early days, you had to hire people with very, very different backgrounds from the backgrounds typically found on Wall Street at that point in time.
物理学家、核工程师、数学家,你必须雇佣那些背景和出身与华尔街交易台通常发现的截然不同的人。
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Physicists, nuclear engineers, mathematicians, you had to hire people who had a very different background in pedigree than you typically found on a Wall Street trading desk.
你必须教他们金融知识,让他们参与解决如何评估衍生品、如何评估复杂证券的问题。
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And you had to teach them about finance, and you had to get them engaged in solving how do you value derivatives, how do you value complex securities?
在那些投入资本的人和那些帮助编写我们做出这些决策的分析工具的人之间,存在一个知识鸿沟,必须跨越或弥合。
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And there was a there was a knowledge gap that had to be crossed or bridged between those of us who were committing the capital and those of us who were helping to write the analytics with which we made these decisions.
您在创新和成功拓展金融新领域方面的能力对Citadel来说是独一无二的。
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Your ability to to innovate and to grow successfully into new areas of finance is quite, quite unique to Citadel.
那么,您认为您为何如此成功?
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So why do you think you're being so successful here?
我认为我们做了一些与大多数公司非常不同的事情。
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Look, I think there's something that we do that's very different than most firms.
每个人都同意投资有艺术的一面,但也有科学的一面。
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Everyone agrees that there is an art to investing, but there's also a science.
当我们思考日常运营这家公司时,我们真正思考的是投资的艺术与科学的结合,以及我们如何使我们的投资决策过程发挥作用。
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And when we think about running this firm day in and day out, we really think about the union of the art and the science of investing in how we make our investment decision-making processes work.
其次,我认为我们以严谨和纪律来理解我们如何创造差异化的洞察力,从而使我们有信心部署资本。
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Number two is I think we bring a rigor and discipline to trying to understand where we create differentiated insights that give us confidence in deploying capital.
第三是经验,是因损失和痛苦付出的代价,这些代价转化为智慧。
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And then third is is it's experience, it's the it's the price paid in losses and pain that converts into wisdom.
我的领导团队一起经历了很多非常艰难的市场时刻。
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My leadership team, we've been through a lot of very difficult moments of the markets together.
我们吸取了一些非常痛苦的教训,但这使我们在动荡和危机时期作为投资者更加有效。
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We've learned some very bitter lessons, but it makes us much more effective as investors in periods of turmoil and crisis.
被动投资与主动管理
在此期间,另一件发生变化的事情是,被动资本和短期资本变得更多了。
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One other thing which has changed during this period is much more passive capital, much more short-term capital.
您如何看待这种变化对我们这些长期基本面投资者世界的影响?
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Now, how how do you see that, um, how do you see that that has changed the world for more long-term fundamental investors like us?
有趣的是,被动投资(Passive Investing: 投资者购买并持有市场指数基金或ETF,不主动选择个股)的兴起印证了市场是有效或半有效的这一认识。
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So what's very interesting is the rise of passive investing plays to the realization that markets are either efficient or semi-efficient.
这是一种让投资者以低成本接触广泛指数、整个世界或特定行业的方式,而无需支付主动管理的费用。
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And it's a way for investors to have low-cost exposure to either broad indices to the world as a whole or to specific sectors without having to pay the fees of active management.
这种对被动投资的拥抱对世界来说是革命性的。
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It's a it's been revolutionary for the world this embracing of of passive investing.
但被动投资只有在有意义的、从事基本面研究的群体帮助设定证券价格的情况下才能发挥作用。
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But passive investing only works if there's a meaningful community of people involved in fundamental research who are helping to set the pricing of securities.
因此,被动投资需要有能力、成功且具有竞争力的传统资产管理公司的存在,才能使被动投资的理论真正发挥作用,真正体现出来。
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So passive investing requires requires the existence of capable, successful, and competitive traditional asset managers for the theory that underlies passive investing to actually play out, to actually manifest itself.
所以,短期投资者的兴起有助于确保市场对快速演变的新闻是有效的。
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So the rise of short-term investors helps to ensure that markets are efficient with respect to news that's rapidly evolving.
但我们真的应该尽一切可能确保传统资产管理公司有能力拥有繁荣和成功的公司,因为他们在被动投资所依赖的价格发现过程中至关重要。
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But we should really try to make sure that we take every step possible to make it that traditional asset managers have the ability to have prosperous and successful firms because they are so critical in the price discovery process that passive investing depends upon.
投资建议与人才策略
鉴于所有这些,如果您是一名股票投资者,您认为现在最好的赚钱方式是什么?
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So given given all this, um, if you're an equity investor, what what do you think is the best way to make money now?
我认为这取决于您在金融市场中的位置。
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Look, I think it comes down to to where you're situated in the financial market.
如果您是一名律师、牙医或教师,拥有一份全职工作,您应该投资于广泛的股票指数产品或广泛管理的主动型资本池。
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If you are if you have a full-time job as a lawyer or dentist or as a teacher, you should be in a broad-based equity index product or an actively managed pool of capital that's broadly based in its management.
假设您管理着挪威主权财富基金,我确切地知道,您非常审慎地将大部分资本指数化,投资于您多年来在全球各地开发的指数。
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Let's say you were running the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund, well, I I know as a as a factual matter that that you are very thoughtful about indexing a substantial portion of your capital to indexes that you've developed over the years around the world.
这使您能够以非常低的成本接触到我们所看到的全球各国整体增长和盈利能力。
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And that gives you very low-cost exposure to the holistic growth and profitability that we have watched play out around the world in various countries.
这是一种非常深思熟虑的方式来部署您必须部署的大量资本。
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It is a very thoughtful way to deploy the massive quantities of capital that you have to deploy.
您还投资于股票以外的资产,然后根据您认为内部团队和外部管理者的相对竞争优势,使用各种外部管理者或内部能力。
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And you're also investing in assets away from equities and then using a variety of either external managers or internal capabilities depending upon what you view to be the relative competitive advantages of the in-house team and the external managers.
这就是我建议任何大型资本池的管理方式:有效地、经济地在内部完成可以做的事情,然后在世界各地寻找最优秀的管理者,以及能够使您的投资组合多样化的各种策略。
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This is how I would recommend any large pool of count capital to be managed, to do what can be done effectively, cost-effectively in-house, and then to find around the world your best breed managers and the various strategies that give your portfolio diversification.
非常感谢您对我们在挪威做法的认可。
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Very uh, I'm very uh thankful for that approval of how we do things there up in uh up in Norway.
现在,明确地说,您放弃了非常成功的对冲基金经理生涯,我相信部分原因在于您也相信资本应该如何部署的相同理念。
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Um, now, to be clear, you know, part of the reason that I'm sure that you walked away from your career as a very successful hedge fund manager is you believe in the same ethos of how capital should be deployed.
绝对如此,我完全同意您的观点。
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Absolutely, I I so I agree entirely with you there.
那么,公司成立34年后,我们有了成绩单,您取得了令人难以置信的成功。
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Now, um, 34 years after inception, um, you know, we have the scorecard, you've been incredibly successful.
您如何保持领先地位?如何确保您仍然充满饥饿感?
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How do you how do you stay at the top? How do you make sure that you are still hungry?
这个问题包含了很多不同的子问题,我们将逐一分析。
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So there's there's very different questions in that question, we're going to unpack it a little bit.
Citadel如何持续繁荣?
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How does Citadel continue to prosper?
我们拥有一支令人难以置信的领导团队。
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We have an incredible leadership team.
我在Citadel拥有世界级的领导者,他们管理着我们各种各样的业务,我非常感谢他们成为这个团队的一员。
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I have world-class leaders here at Citadel that are running our very various businesses, and I'm grateful for them being part of this team.
我还不断与我的领导团队合作,探讨如何改进和加强我们的投资策略。
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I'm also constantly engaged with my leadership team on how to improve and strengthen our investment strategies.
因此,我与我的高级领导团队就招聘优秀人才、培养优秀的风险承担者、确保在最佳机会出现时将资本投入到我们最优秀的风险承担者手中等核心问题保持着持续的沟通。
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So a constant level of engagement with my senior leadership team on the core problems of recruiting great talent, developing great risk-takers, making sure that we push capital into the hands of our best risk-takers when the best opportunities present themselves.
因此,我们非常重视人力资本(Human Capital: 员工的知识、技能、经验和能力)的发展以及将资本部署到我们最优秀的人才手中。
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So there's a huge emphasis on just human capital development and deployment of capital with our best people.
然后,在我们所做的一切中还有第二条主线:我们如何建立竞争优势?
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And then there's a second thread in everything we do, how do we build a competitive advantage?
我们如何更好地收集信息?
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How do we gather information better?
我们如何做出更好的决策?
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How do we make better decisions?
您做的一件事是拥有多位管理者和这些整体概念。
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One of the things you do is to have multi-managers and these whole concepts.
团队是如何构建的?您是如何考虑这个问题的?
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Um, how how are the teams structured? How do you think about this?
我们将业务视为各种垂直领域,例如全球商品业务、多空股票业务、各种信贷业务。
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So we think about the business as a variety of verticals, for example, a global commodities business, a a long-short equities business, a variety of credit businesses.
在每个垂直领域内,我们要求我们的业务负责人像企业家一样行事,真正对自己说:“我实际上拥有无限的资本。”
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Within each vertical, we ask our business leaders to act as entrepreneurs and to really to say to yourself, I have for all intents and purposes access to unlimited capital.
从这个角度来看,在当今世界、当今环境下,构建和利用正确的团队、正确的策略和正确的竞争优势是什么?
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From that vantage point, what's the right team, the right strategies, and the right competitive advantages to build and utilize in today's world, in today's environment?
这就是我们运营业务的方式,这非常像一种“白纸思维”,即我们今天应该做什么才能成为世界上金融市场中最有效的资本部署者之一。
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That's that's how we run our businesses, it's very much a mindset of clean sheet of paper, what should we be doing today to be one of the most effective deployers of capital in the world's financial markets.
每个团队都决定自己的投资策略吗?
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Does each team decide their investment strategy?
投资策略是由投资组合经理、业务负责人和我共同决定的。
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So the investment strategies are decide are are are are honed between the portfolio managers, the business heads, and myself.
所以,我们三个人会根据问题的性质聚在一起,共同努力,确保我们真正思考如何创造我们所能创造的最成功的投资策略。
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So it's it's the three three of us will come together depending upon the nature of the problem and work together to try to make sure that we've really thought through how to create the most successful investment strategies that we can possibly create.
现在,如果您给我一亿美元,我为您工作,您如何看待我的错误?
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So now you give me um $100 million, I work for you, uh, how how do you look at my mistakes?
首先,我们希望给您管理远不止一亿美元的资金。
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Well, I mean, first of all, um, we'd like to give you a lot more than $100 million to manage, okay?
谢谢您。
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Um, thank for thank you, all right.
部分原因在于,我们正在这里引进真正优秀的人才,我们希望他们能够获得足够的资本,以获得收入和盈利能力来支持他们周围的卓越团队。
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And and part of this is, you know, we're bringing really great people here, we want them to have access to sufficient capital to have both the revenues and the profitability to support superlative teams around them.
我们真正将投资视为世界级团队的事业,因为在团队内部,你会进行更健康的辩论和对话,这有助于揭示真相,揭示正在进行的辩论的真正本质,这对于我们运营业务至关重要。
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We really view investing as the undertaking of world-class teams because within teams, you have a much healthier debate and dialogue that helps one uncover the truth to uncover the real essence of the debate that's at play, and that's so important to how we run our business.
所以,当我们聘请您作为投资组合经理时,我们会花大量时间来了解,第一,我们为您配备什么样的团队,以及如何招募最优秀的人才加入您的团队。
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So when we would hire you as a portfolio manager, we'd really spend a lot of time to understand, number one, what team do we put around you and how to recruit the best and brightest to be on your team.
其次,我们希望与您密切合作,确保您拥有一个可重复的投资流程,您可以从中学习,并且您可以从成功和失败中学习,并且您可以将这个流程传授给您的团队成员,从而为自己创造运营杠杆。
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And then number two is we want to be very engaged with you in making sure that you have an investment process that's repeatable, that you learn from and you learn from both again, your successes and your failures, and that you can teach this process to your team members to to create operating leverage for yourself.
这些是我们考虑您作为新投资组合经理加入公司时的一些事情。
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So those are some of the things that we think about when you join the firm as a new portfolio manager.
您什么时候会解雇我?
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When do you sack me?
嗯,明确地说,我们不想解雇您,我们希望您拥有一个令人难以置信的成功职业生涯。
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Well, let's be clear, we don't want to sack you, we want to see you have an incredibly successful career.
为什么人们的职业生涯会脱轨?为什么人们会陷入困境?
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Why do people's careers derail? Why do people run into tough tough predicaments?
有几个原因。
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There's a couple of reasons.
第一,坦率地说,有些人根本就不是好的风险承担者。
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Number one is some people just to be blunt, they're just not good risk-takers.
你可以把事实摆在他们面前,你有一个高度集中的投资组合,你的大仓位,你无法证明你持有这些仓位有明确而简洁的竞争优势。
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You can put the facts right in front of their face, you have a portfolio that is extraordinarily highly concentrated, your large positions, you cannot demonstrate a clear and concise competitive advantage in why you own those positions.
如果这些出了问题,我们就没有合作的基础。
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If these go awry, we don't have a basis to work together.
有些人即使掌握了全部信息,也无法帮助自己构建更好的投资组合。
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And there are some people that just with full information are unable to help themselves and get to a better portfolio construction.
另类数据与做市商角色
您多次提到信息,您是另类数据的优秀使用者之一。
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You talk about information many times, and you are one of the really great users of alternative data.
请告诉我们您使用的一些另类数据源的类型。
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Tell us about some of the type of alternative data sources that you use.
我们使用哪些类型的另类数据?
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What what types of alternative data do we use?
这真的取决于我们投资的性质。
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Yeah, so it really depends upon the nature of where we're investing.
如果您投资航空公司,您会非常关注现行票价。
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If you're investing in airlines, you're very interested in prevailing airfares.
如果您试图预测通货膨胀,您会逐一分析美国劳工统计局(BLS)关注的每一个要素,并生成他们的通胀预测。
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If you're trying to forecast inflation, you're literally breaking down every element of what the BLS looks for in the United States and producing their inflation forecast.
如果您参与商品市场,您可能会进行世界级的气象预测,以预测短期天气模式或短期天气模式的分布。
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If you are involved in the commodities markets, you might be running a world-class meteorology effort to try to predict short-term weather patterns or a dispersion of short-term weather patterns.
因此,您将根据手头问题的性质来集中使用数据和另类数据。
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So you're going to focus your use of data and alternative data to the nature of the problem at hand.
所以我们总是试图剥开洋葱,理解哪些信息对于推动业务收入或商品需求很重要,以及我们如何以适当的方式获取这些信息,快速处理并做出好的决策。
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So we're always trying to peel back the onion and understand what information is important to driving the revenues of a business or the demand for a commodity, and how do we secure that information in an appropriate way, process it quickly, and make good decisions with it.
换个话题,您提到过在大学时就对做市商很着迷,现在您创立了Citadel Securities,它是世界上最复杂的做市商之一。
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Changing tack up here, um, you mentioned that already back at uh, at university, you were um, you were uh fascinated by market makers, and then now you made Citadel Securities, which is one of the world's most sophisticated market makers.
首先,对于不了解的听众来说,做市商在金融中的作用是什么?为什么它很重要?
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So first of all, just for the for the people who who listen to who don't know, what is the role of a market maker in finance? Why is this important?
做市商是为那些不能同时相遇的买家和卖家提供流动性的公司。
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So a market maker is a firm that provides liquidity to buyers and sellers who are not contemporarily meeting each other.
这意味着当您出售价值5000万美元的股票时,如果市场上没有买家在同一时刻出现,您就不会过度压低股价。
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Marketplace, which means that when you go to sell $50 million of a stock, if there's not a buyer in the market at the exact same instant, you're not pushing that stock price unduly.
做市商将利用他们的资本来促成您的交易,然后希望在未来的某个时刻找到您股票的最终买家。
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The market maker will use their capital to facilitate your trade and then we'll hope to find the eventual buyer of your stock at some point in the future.
我们在全球范围内以大规模的方式进行固定收益和股票产品交易。
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And we do this in a in a massive scale around the world in fixed income and equity products.
例如,规模有多大?
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You know, for example, massive, how massive?
在美国,我们每天交易的股票几乎占总交易量的25%。
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In the United States, we trade almost 25% of all the equity that trades every day.
数字很大吧?
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Big numbers, huh?
Citadel Securities每天在所有资产类别中的交易额达4000亿美元。
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$400 billion daily turnover across all asset classes here at Citadel Securities.
您认为Citadel Securities在未来5到10年内会是什么样子?
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What do you think Citadel Securities would look like in 5 to 10 years' time?
我认为它会和我们今天看起来非常相似,但我们会在更多产品上深化,我们会丰富并扩大其在更多交易伙伴中的影响力。
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Look, I think it's going to look very similar to how we look today, but we'll deepen across more products, we'll rich and we'll expand its reach across more trading partners.
我们还提供投资者真正重视的各种其他服务,例如企业访问、新发行产品的获取。
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And we offer a variety of other services that investors really value, such as corporate access, access to new issuance.
随着我们不断寻求解决客户面临的挑战和问题,它将在未来几年扩大其规模和范围。
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It will broaden its scale and scope over the years to come as we continue to seek to solve the challenges and problems that are our clients face.
确实非常令人印象深刻。
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Well, for sure, really, really impressive.
地缘政治与企业文化
现在,我们转向更大的图景,您如何看待当今的地缘政治局势?
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Um, now, moving on to uh, the bigger picture, just what do you make out of today's geopolitical situation?
你和我都非常幸运,我们是在一个和平的时代成长起来的,直到最近两年多。
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You know, you and I have been very fortunate, we have really grown up through an era of peace until the last until the last two and change years.
看到乌克兰战争的爆发令人心碎。
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And it's it's heartbreaking to watch the war play out in the Ukraine.
这是其中之一,你知道,你有没有想过在你的一生中欧洲会再次发生战争?
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This is this is one of the, you know, would you ever thought there'd be a war in Europe in your lifetime again?
不。
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No.
好的,我们现在正在目睹这一切的发生,以及乌克兰人民和经济因与俄罗斯的战争而遭受的可怕生命损失和毁灭性影响,这真的令人心碎。
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All right, and and we're watching that happen right here, right now, and the horrible loss of life and the devastating impact of the Ukrainian people and the economy with this war that they're entangled with with the Russians, it's it's really it's heartbreaking.
当然,就在几天前,我们看到伊朗袭击了以色列。
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And then of course, just a few days ago, we saw the Iranians take a strike at Israel.
以色列一直承受着巨大的压力。
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Israel has been under great duress.
中东地区可能不像乌克兰战争那样令人惊讶,中东地区总是更容易受到地缘政治挑战的影响。
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The Middle East probably not as much of a surprise as the war in the Ukraine, the Middle East has always been more susceptible to to geopolitical challenges.
但尽管如此,去年10月的事件、加沙战争,这对于人类来说是一个非常令人心碎的时刻,在这两个战线上都是如此。
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But nonetheless, the events of of October of last year, the war in Gaza, this is a this has been a very heartbreaking moment for humanity across these two fronts.
那么,肯·格里芬,如果让您接管美国的财政,您会这样做吗?
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So, um, Ken Griffin, if you were asked to um, take over the finances of the United States, would you do that?
如果美国面临财政挑战,而我能为这个国家提供帮助,我当然会这样做。
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Look, if if we had a financial challenge in America, and I could be of helped to this country, of course, I'd do that.
肯,我们继续谈谈企业文化。
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Ken, moving on to um, core culture, you you've talked quite a bit about uh, talent and the of course, the importance of having talent and so on.
您花多少时间在招聘上?
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How much time do you spend on recruitment?
我一直在与候选人交谈。
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So I am talking to candidates all the time.
没有什么比我们引进的人才、我们在公司内部培养的人才以及领导公司的人才更重要的了,无论是在资本部署还是业务建设方面。
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Nothing's more important than the talent that we bring into our four walls, that we develop within our four walls, and that leads this firm both in the deployment of capital and the building of businesses.
你们有很多申请,对吧?
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And you have like a you have like a wall of applications, right?
我的意思是,我想,你知道,我们有大约1500份申请,只为了纽约的三个职位,但你们有大约10万份申请。
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I mean, I thought, you know, we have like 1,500 applications for like three positions now in New York, but you got like 100,000 applications.
是的,我们有大约10万名来自世界各地大学的申请者。
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We do, we have about a 100,000 applicants from colleges and universities around the world.
哇。
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Wow.
让我告诉你最让我高兴的是什么。
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And let me let me tell you what makes me smile the most about that.
全世界都知道我们每周在办公室工作五天。
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Everybody around the world knows that we work 5 days a week in an office.
这告诉你,世界上有大量的年轻人渴望在一个充满指导、充满领导力发展的环境中工作,在那里他们将拥有职业生涯。
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This tells you that there are an enormous number of of young adults around this world that want to be in an environment which will be awash in mentorship, awash in leadership development, where they're going to have careers like that makes me very optimistic about the future.
这让我对未来非常乐观,我希望我们这些在全球各地经营企业的人能够与这些学生相遇,并给予他们那种能够让他们拥有伟大职业生涯的经验。
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And I hope that those of us who run businesses around the world meet these students in the middle and give them that experience that will let them have great careers.
现在,我是那10万人中的一员,我设法获得了您的面试机会。
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So now I'm one of the 100,000 people, I managed to get an interview with you.
我当然有点紧张,因为您是一位非常有名的人,但是您会问我什么?
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I'm of course, uh, a bit nervous, but uh, because uh, you know, you're a very famous person, but uh, what what would you ask me?
我会问您什么?
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What would I ask you?
我将是第四个面试您的人,所以我会有一些非常棒的问题要问您。
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So I'm not I'm going to be the fourth person to meet you, so I'm going to have a really great set of questions to pose to you.
让我告诉您我寻找什么。
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Let me tell you what I look for.
我寻找雄心壮志。
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I look for ambition.
我希望Citadel的人真正想改变金融世界,他们希望拥有充满影响力的生活,他们希望在这个世界上有所作为。
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I want people at Citadel who really want to change the world of finance, they want to have a life that is full of impact, they want to make a difference in this world.
我寻找强大的沟通能力。
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I look for strong communication skills.
我认为传达想法的能力非常重要,无论您在生活中追求何种商业事业。
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I think the ability to convey an idea is extraordinarily important no matter what commercial undertaking you seek in life.
你必须能够表达一个想法。
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You've got to be able to express an idea.
我们总是在公司内部辩论我们想法的优劣,以求真理。
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We're always trying to debate within our four walls the merits of our ideas to get to the truth.
所以我寻找雄心壮志,我寻找沟通能力,我寻找在广泛问题上推理和合理化的能力。
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So I look for ambition, I look for communication skills, I look for an ability to to reason and to rationalize across a broad array of problems.
我希望人们是真正优秀的思考者,因为解决问题是我们日常工作中固有的。
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Like I want people who are really good thinkers because problem solving is so inherent in what we do in our work day in and day out.
而那些优秀的解决问题者,就是在Citadel取得成功的人。
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And people who are good problem solvers are people who prosper here at Citadel.
您能从简历中看出这些吗?还是需要与人见面?
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Can you see any of this from the CV or do you need to meet people?
哦,你需要与人见面。
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Oh, you need to meet people.
我的意思是,很明显,现在人们知道如何撰写简历,以击中他们寻求就业的雇主的痛点。
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I mean, let's be clear, people know how to write CVs today to hit the sweet spot of the employer they're seeking an employment at.
您如何判断我是否是一个好的问题解决者?
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How do you find out whether I'm a good problem solver?
嗯,您解决了哪些问题?
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Well, what problems have you solved?
每个学生都会有他们如何解决问题的故事,无论是他们推出的洗衣服务,还是他们以前的暑期工作,无论是他们写过的论文。
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And every every student is going to have stories of how they've solved problems, whether it's the whether it's the laundry service they launched, or whether it's a a prior summer job they had, whether it's a thesis they wrote.
学生们有很多机会来证明他们是真正优秀的问题解决者。
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There's there's just a litany of opportunities for students to demonstrate that they're really good problem solvers.
您解决过的最困难的问题是什么?
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What's the most difficult problem you have solved?
嗯,最困难的问题尚未解决。
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Well, the most difficult problems have yet to be solved.
但那是什么呢?
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But what is that?
你知道,有很多工作是关于多周期优化(Multi-period Optimization: 在多个时间段内做出决策以最大化或最小化某个目标的问题),这很难解决。
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Uh, you know, there's a there's a lot of work that gets it's done a multi-period optimization that's tough to solve.
多周期优化是:我对一只股票在未来一天、未来一周、未来一月、未来一年内的走势有看法,考虑到我对时间的不同看法,我如何在这个时刻创建最佳投资组合?
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Multi-period optimization is I have a view as to how a stock is going to move over the next day, over the next week, over the next month, over the next year, how do I create the optimal portfolio at this moment, giving these different views I may have with respect to time?
这在我们必须做出资本部署决策的各种情况下都会发挥作用。
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And this comes into play in in just a variety of ways in which we have to to make capital deployment decisions.
所以,这是一个我们Citadel尚未完全解决的有趣问题。
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So that's a that's an interesting fast a problem that we've yet to really fully solve here at Citadel.
非常有趣。
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Very interesting.
我曾在某处读到您说过,如果您喜欢成为一个优秀的竞争者,您会喜欢在这里工作。
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Um, now, I read somewhere that you said that um, if you wired to enjoy being a good competitor, you love working here.
那是什么意思?
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What does that mean?
我们毫不掩饰,我们希望雇佣那些真正喜欢赢的人。
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Look, we we're we're shameless, we want to hire people who really enjoy winning.
金融市场每天都会给您一个记分牌,告诉您作为竞争者表现如何。
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And the financial markets give you a scorecard each and every day as to how you're doing as a competitor.
我们发现,那些喜欢竞争、喜欢赢的人喜欢在这里工作,因为他们喜欢看到作为世界领先金融机构之一,他们的研究成果在他们构建的投资组合中得到实时反馈并开花结果。
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And what we find is that people that that that like to compete, that like to win, love being here because they like to see the real-time feedback that goes with being at one of the world's leading financial institutions and seeing the success of their research bear fruit in the portfolios that they build and construct.
您认为什么是好的领导力?
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When you look at leadership, what is good leadership for you?
优秀的领导力归结为处理眼前情况的现实。
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Look, great leadership comes down to dealing with the realities of the situation at hand.
优秀的领导者只是非常务实地面对他们面临的问题、议题和机遇,以及他们围绕这些问题、机遇和挑战做出的决策。
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Like great leaders are just very matter of fact about the problems, issues, and opportunities that they face, and the decision making that they make around the problems, the opportunities, and the challenges that they face.
他们非常专注于现实情况,他们不会受沉没成本谬误(Sunk Cost Fallacy: 已经投入的成本不应影响未来决策的错误观念)的影响,他们不会在情况不乐观时抱有过度的希望,他们总是做出良好、理性的决策。
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Like they're they're just very centered in the reality of a situation, they don't suffer from sunk cost fallacy, they don't suffer from undue hope when a situation is not hopeful, they make good rational decisions all the time.
您大多数时候都会问好的领导力是什么样的,对吗?
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Do you uh, most of the time you ask what great leadership looks like, you know?
绝对如此。
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Absolutely.
决策的速度有多重要?
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How how important is speed is in decision making?
速度,有一个要素,你知道,在一个轴上是准确性,另一个轴是速度。
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Um, speed's there there's an element, you know, in one axis there's accuracy, the other axis is speed.
重要的是要理解在任何时候,你希望在这两个轴之间做出怎样的权衡。
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What's important to understand at any point in time is what's the trade-off between the two axes that you want to be on.
有时,接近正确并快速行动比绝对正确但缓慢行动更重要。
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Sometimes it's more important to be nearly right and quick than it is to be absolutely right and slow.
你知道,如果你仔细想想,你希望将改变主意的成本作为你行动速度的关键决定因素。
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You know, if you think about it, you want to think about the cost of changing your mind as a key determinant of how fast you want to be.
如果你要投资一个需要40年才能完成的房地产开发项目,你不需要快速,你需要彻底,因为一旦你开始这段旅程,那将是一段非常漫长的旅程。
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If you're going to if you're going to make an investment in a real estate development project that's going to take 40 years to play out, you don't need to be quick, you need to be thorough because once you start that journey, that's a very long journey to be on.
然而,如果你购买了5亿美元的苹果股票,第二天你意识到你错过了一个重要事实,你可以迅速采取行动退出这笔交易。
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Whereas if you buy $500 million of Apple, and you rise the next day that you missed a salient fact, you can move quickly to get back out of that trade.
您如何平衡分析和直觉?
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How do you balance um, analysis with gut feel?
直觉,最好的直觉实际上几乎是潜意识的分析。
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So gut feel, the best gut feel is actually almost like subconscious analysis.
是的,好的。
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Yeah, all right.
所以当人们告诉我,凭直觉我相信X时,我试图思考这是否是他们的潜意识在发挥作用。
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So when people tell me like, just in my gut, I believe X, I'm trying to think about is that their subconscious playing out?
他们在这个问题上经历过很多次,他们大致知道答案是什么,他们还没有把它写在纸上,但他们的直觉更多地反映了分析问题的内在能力,并告诉您该怎么做。
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They've had many at bats in this kind of problem, they they know roughly what the answer is, they haven't put it down on paper yet, but their gut's really more of a reflection of an intrinsic ability to analyze a problem and tell you what to do.
有些人的直觉似乎只是,你知道,他们早上喝了什么咖啡,我就应该做多标普500指数,因为那天咖啡很好喝。
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Some people's gut feel just seems to be, you know, what coffee did they have that morning, and I should be long, you know, S&P because like it was a good day for coffee, that doesn't work here at Citadel.
Citadel的直觉是,人们的直觉真正反映了他们头脑中正在进行的分析,这些分析可能尚未完全形成或完全显现。
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Gut feel at Citadel is people whose gut really is a reflection of the analyst analysis taking place in their minds that may be not fully formed or fully manifested yet.
如果您卸任,Citadel会发生什么?
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What would happen to Citadel if you step down?
这是一个很好的问题,好消息是,我这里有很多人,他们没有我也会非常成功地经营这家公司。
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That's a great question, and and the good news is, I've got a number of people here who would very successfully run the business without me.
我不想卸任,我喜欢我的工作,我喜欢与我共事的人,这真的是我生活中的热情所在。
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I don't I don't want to step down, I enjoy my job, I love the people I work with, this really is a passion for me in life.
所以我不想跨过那座桥,但万一我不得不这样做,我有很多优秀的合作伙伴会经营这家公司。
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So I I'd like to not cross that bridge, but God forbid if I had to, I've got great partners who'd run this firm if I had to step down.
如果您回到大学,您会学习什么?
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Now, if you if you step if you had to go back to university, what would you study?
哇,那么是回到20岁,还是我现在的年龄?
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Wow, so like 20 years old again, or am I at this age in life?
不不,您就是您现在的年龄。
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No, no, you are you are the age you are.
我可能会回到大学,更多地学习哲学和政府学。
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I'd probably go back to university and study a bit more in in the realm of philosophy and government.
这些问题一直让我感兴趣。
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Those have been problems that have always interested me.
良好的治理很重要,拥有坚实的哲学基础我认为有助于制定更好的政策决策。
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Good governance is important, and having a solid underpinning philosophy, I think, helps to better policy decisions.
我可能还会花一些时间学习数学和计算机科学,更好地了解今天的最新技术。
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I'd probably also take a bit of time to study mathematics and computer science and understand the state-of-the-art today better.
我已经很久没有在课堂上学习数学或计算机科学了,看看这些领域今天的世界发展如何会很有趣。
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It's been a long time since I was in a class classroom studying mathematics or computer science, it'd be interesting to see where's the world today in those fields.
您最好奇的是什么?
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What are you the most curious about?
我想说我的好奇心范围从生物技术创新到计算机科学。
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Just know, I would say my curiosity ranges from innovations in in biotechnology to computer science.
所以STEM(Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics: 科学、技术、工程、数学)是我的好奇领域。
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So STEM is is my area of curiosity.
我真的对世界各地STEM领域正在发生的发展很感兴趣,从核裂变、核聚变、微处理器到基因工程。
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I'm I'm really interested in the developments that are taking place in STEM around the world from nuclear fission, nuclear fusion, microprocessors to to genetic.
我想说我对理解这些广泛领域的问题和发展有着永不满足的渴望。
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I'd say I have a just an insatiable thirst to understand more about problems and developments and fields as as broad as that.
当您不花时间在这些事情上时,您如何放松?
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And when you don't spend time on that, how do you how do you relax?
我的意思是,我可以看到窗外,您在迈阿密,阳光普照,您在办公室外做什么?
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I mean, I can see out of the window here, you're in Miami, sun is shining, uh, what do you do outside office?
我喜欢骑自行车,迈阿密有很棒的自行车道。
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So I I I love to bike, we've got great biking here in Miami.
我很幸运有三个孩子,他们都差不多是青少年了。
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And I'm very fortunate, I have three young kids who are all roughly teenagers.
所以大多数时候,当我不在工作时,我基本上都在和三个孩子一起度过所有空闲时间。
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So most of the time, most time when I'm not at work, I'm I'm having three kids basically, um, basically consuming all my free time.
谈到年轻人,我们有成千上万的年轻人在听这个节目,您对年轻人有什么建议?
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And talking of um, young people, we have thousands and thousands of young people, um, listening to this, what is your advice to young people now?
我的建议在三十多年里没有太大变化。
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You know, my my advice hasn't changed much over over three decades.
追求你所热爱的事情。
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Pursue what you're passionate about.
要真正擅长某件事,你必须对工作充满热情。
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To really excel something, you're going to have to be passionate about the work.
如果你没有热情,你就不会做得很好,你的职业生涯也不会感到满意。
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If you're not passionate, you're not going to be great at it, you're not going to be satisfied with your career.
你需要追求那些真正让你早上醒来就想去做的事情。
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You need to pursue areas that really just you wake up and you want to go do X.
这可能是成为一名医生,可能是成为一名律师,也可能是选股。
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It might be being a doctor, it might be being a lawyer, it might be picking stocks.
但你必须找到什么让你早上醒来就想做,什么对你来说是内在驱动的。
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But you've got to find like what wakes what do you wake up in the morning and want to do, what's this intrinsically motivating to you?
如果你被外在动机驱动,你会发现生活非常肤浅。
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If you're driven by extrinsic motivation, you will find life to be very shallow.
你需要找到你生命中的内在召唤。
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You need to find what's your intrinsic calling in life.
我记得大约30年前,这里有一位年轻女士,她在投资团队中非常有才华。
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Remember there was a a young woman here, this is almost 30 years ago, she was so talented on the investment team.
她和我们在一起大约一年半到两年,然后她和她的经理走进来,说她正在考虑去医学院,我需要您说服她留在Citadel。
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And she was with us for about a year and a half, two years, and her and her her manager walked in and said she's thinking of going to medical school, and I need you to convince her to stay here at Citadel.
我说:“嗯,问题是,她一走进我的办公室,我就会主动给她写推荐信。”
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I said, well, here's the problem, the minute she walks in my office, I'm going to offer to write her a letter of recommendation.
世界迫切需要另一位伟大的医生,如果那是她想成为的,我想帮助她实现梦想。
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The world desperately needs another great doctor, and if that's what she wants to be, I want to help her make her dream come true.
这确实是一个很好的结束语。
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Well, that's a a very nice place to end it for sure.
看起来您已经成功实现了自己的梦想,并且正在努力使Citadel成为史上最成功的投资公司。
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Seems like you have um, managed to get your dreams to come through, uh, and that you are on your way to make Citadel the most successful investment firm of all time.
所以我真的要恭喜您,非常感谢您今天来到这里。
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So I just have to really congratulate you and uh, big thank you for being on here today.
非常欢迎,非常感谢。
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You are most welcome, thank you so much.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
公司/组织: Citadel, Citadel Securities, Norges Bank Investment Management, Harvard
媒体/书籍: Forbes