廉价科技产品的终结
[Arthur Gies]: 我们构建了一个让人们离不开这些东西的世界,但越来越多的人将会发现,这些产品越来越难以负担。
Original English
[Arthur Geese]: We have built a world that makes people need this stuff and increasingly it's going to be very difficult for a broad category of people to afford.
[Rosie Garin]: 我是 Rosie Garin,您正在收听《Wirecutter Show》。
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: I'm Rosie Garin and you're listening to the Wire Cutter Show.
[Rosie Garin]: 嘿,我是 Rosie。几个月前,我们在 Wirecutter 科技团队的同事开始报道消费级科技产品(如笔记本电脑、手机和游戏主机)成本上升的问题。到了 1 月,我们在 Wirecutter 网站上发表了一篇题为**《廉价笔记本电脑的消亡即将来临》(The Death of the Cheap Laptop is Coming)** 的文章。现在仅仅过了几个月,科技团队就已经在自信地拉响警报,他们表示:廉价笔记本电脑的消亡不是“即将来临”,而是“已经到来”,而且情况还会变得更糟。其背后的原因与人工智能 (AI) 息息相关。我想进一步了解到底是哪些因素在起作用,未来是否还有希望,如果没有,我们是否需要趁着价格还没涨得越来越高,赶紧去买我们现在需要或觉得可能需要的设备?情况到底有多糟,我们又能做些什么?广告之后,我将向一直密切关注此事的同事们提出这些问题以及更多其他问题。加入我们的是 Wirecutter 科技团队的几位成员:Caitlyn McGary、Arthur Gies 和 Kimber Streams。希望大家不要走开,我们马上回来。
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: Hey, it's Rosie. Several months ago, my colleagues on the tech team here at Wire Cutter began reporting on the rising costs of consumer tech products like laptops, phones, and gaming consoles. By January, we had published an article on the Wire Cutter site called The Death of the Cheap Laptop is coming. Well, we're just a few months later and the tech team is confidently ringing the alarm and saying that the death of the cheap laptop isn't coming. It's here. It's about to get worse. And the reason behind it has a lot to do with AI. I want to get a better understanding of what factors are at play, whether there's hope on the horizon, and if not, whether we all need to rush out to buy the devices we need or think we may need now before prices climb higher and higher. How bad is it and what can we do about it? After the break, I'll put those questions and more to my colleagues who've been closely tracking this. Some members of Wire Cutters tech team, Caitlyn McGary, Arthur Geese, and Kimber streams. I hope you'll stick around. We'll be right back.
[Rosie Garin]: 欢迎回来。今天我们要讨论的是经济实惠的消费级科技产品时代的终结。我们已经到这个地步了吗?如果真的到了,我们又能做些什么?就像大家将听到的那样,部分答案与 AI 有关。因此我们必须说明,我们就职于《纽约时报》公司,该公司目前正因涉嫌侵犯版权而起诉包括 OpenAI、微软 (Microsoft) 和 Perplexity 在内的几家公司。尽管如此,和我一起深入探讨这个问题的有三位同事,他们都对这个话题进行了广泛的撰文和报道。他们是:我们科技团队的高级编辑 Caitlyn McGary。
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: Welcome back. Today we're talking about the end of the era of affordable consumer tech products. Are we there? And what, if anything, can we do about it? Now, as you'll hear, part of the answer is about AI. And because of that, we should note that we work for the New York Times company, which is suing several companies, Open AI, Microsoft, and Perplexity over alleged copyright violations. With that said, joining me to break it down are three of my colleagues who have written and reported extensively on the subject. Caitlyn McGary, senior editor on our tech team.
[Caitlyn McGary]: 大家好,感谢邀请我们。
Original English
[Caitlyn McGary]: Hi, thanks for having us.
[Rosie Garin]: 科技团队的监督编辑 Arthur Gies,他也负责报道视频游戏和硬件。
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: Arthur Geese, supervising editor on the tech team, who also covers video games and hardware.
[Arthur Gies]: 很高兴再次来到这里。
Original English
[Arthur Geese]: Nice to be back.
[Rosie Garin]: 以及负责报道笔记本电脑的高级专职撰稿人 Kimber Streams。欢迎你们。
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: and Kimber streams, senior staff writer covering laptops. Welcome.
[Kimber Streams]: 大家好。这可能是一次略带悲伤的对话,或者说是一场带着悲伤色彩的谈话,但我们直接切入正题吧。我们在节目中努力做到的是提供服务。因此,我想确保除了讨论正在发生的事情之外,我们还要谈谈,如果可能的话,听众们有什么应对之策。
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: Hello. Hello. This might be a slightly sad a conversation tinged with sadness might be fair to say, but let's just jump right in. What we try and do on the show is service. And so I want to make sure that there in addition to sort of talking about what's happening, we're also talking about what if any recourse there is for folks listening.
全线暴涨的科技产品与供应链危机
[Rosie Garin]: 那么,Caitlyn,我想从你开始。核心新闻是什么?普通人应该如何看待你们已经观察到的这些价格上涨现象?
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: So, Caitlyn, I want to start with you. What's the headline and how should the average person be thinking about these price increases that you're already seeing?
[Caitlyn McGary]: 嗯,核心新闻是情况很糟。一切都相当糟糕。我真希望自己能对此更乐观一点,但说实话,如果我现在需要一台新电脑,我会感到非常有压力。我大概一年半前刚买了一台新电脑,我打算如果可能的话,一直用下去。情况确实不乐观。
Original English
[Caitlyn McGary]: Um, the headline is bad. Everything is pretty bad. I wish I could be more optimistic about it, honestly, but if I needed a new computer right now, I would be pretty stressed out. I just bought a new computer about a year and a half ago and I'm planning to use it forever if I can. It's not good.
[Rosie Garin]: 所以价格正在上涨。是哪些组件导致了这些高昂的标价?在我们讨论未来的走向之前,先谈谈目前的状况以及我们曾经的状况。
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: So, prices are increasing. What are the components that are contributing to these hefty price tags? Before we talk about where we're headed, let's talk about where we are and where we've been.
[Caitlyn McGary]: 是的。我的意思是,科技产品从来没有真正“容易负担”或者说“便宜”过。现在这可能已经是科技产品有史以来最便宜的时期了。你想想最早的个人电脑或便携式电话,贵得惊人。那是因为里面包含了太多东西。有芯片组、屏幕、摄像头、随机存取存储器 (RAM)、存储空间,以及投入到这一切中的研发工作。这些成本本身就高得吓人。但近年来,价格已经下降了很多。而现在我们看到了这种趋势的逆转。我认为这正是我们感到担忧的地方,因为我们曾经希望价格会永远下降。
Original English
[Caitlyn McGary]: Yeah. I mean, technology has never been affordable or even cheap really. Like, this is probably the cheapest technology has ever been. I mean, if you think about the earliest personal computers or portable telephones, incredibly expensive. And that's because there's a lot that goes into them. I mean, you have the chipsets, the screens, cameras, RAM, storage, the research and development that goes into all of that. Like, that's just crazy expensive. But prices have been coming down a lot in recent years. And now we are seeing a reversal of that trend. And I think that's where we're getting concerned because we were hopeful that they would decrease forever.
[Arthur Gies]: 我认为,科技产品价格随时间下降的趋势,与科技成为必需品的概念是相吻合的。曾经有一段时间,手机是奢侈品,后来手机变得很重要。而现在,手机成了绝对的必需品。如果没有手机,我们现代生活中的大部分事情都无法运转。因此,科技的大众化使其成为了我们生活中更重要的一部分。我觉得,面对目前我们所看到的价格走向和轨迹,我们最担心的一点是,我们已经构建了一个让人们离不开这些东西的世界,但越来越多的人将会发现,这些产品越来越难以负担。
Original English
[Arthur Geese]: I think the sort of decrease in price over time towards tech has corresponded with this idea of indispensability for technology that there was a time where cell phones were luxury and then cell phones felt important. And now cell phones are an absolute necessity. Like we can't function in most of our modern lives without them. And so the democratization of tech has made them a bigger part of our lives. And I think one of the things we're most concerned about with the direction and trajectory that we're seeing on prices is that we have built a world that makes people need this stuff and increasingly it's going to be very difficult for a broad category of people to afford.
[Rosie Garin]: Arthur,你在 Wirecutter 网站上写了一篇很棒的文章,大家应该去看看,名字就叫《廉价笔记本电脑的消亡即将来临》。我很好奇,你是从什么时候开始关注这个报道的?这是一个针对你的问题,但我同样也很好奇 Caitlyn 和 Kimber,你们是什么时候开始看到一些让你们感到担忧的迹象的?
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: Arthur, you wrote this great piece that folks should check out on the Wire Cutter site called The Death of the Cheap Laptop is Coming. I'm curious when this story started to peique your interest. This is a question for you in regards to the show, but I'm also curious, Caitlyn and Kimber, when you started to see here signs that made you concerned.
[Arthur Gies]: 去年 10 月份,当个人电脑的内存价格开始暴涨时,我有些担忧。与此同时,OpenAI 与两家最大的 RAM 和存储器制造商签署了一项协议,实质上就是他们承诺在可预见的未来预留高达 40% 的内存产量。随着事情的发展,我们看到特定种类组件的价格引发了两次、三次、四次警报,起初主要是内存,到了年底,存储器价格也开始上涨。我很担心,随后分析师开始预测这会对整个电子供应链产生级联效应。到了年底,当我们开始听到关于 2026 年情况的简报时。像 戴尔 (Dell)、联想 (Lenovo) 和 惠普 (HP) 这样的公司,都非常明确地指出了内存定价问题,这在我以前是从未见过的;他们以前所未有的坦诚态度表示,所有东西都将变得更贵,而且涨幅比我以往听他们谈论的要大得多。考虑到 Kimber 专注于笔记本电脑,她在这方面可能会有更清晰的了解。
Original English
[Arthur Geese]: I got a little worried last October as the prices of memory for PCs started to jump up and that happened concurrently with this sort of agreement that was signed between OpenAI and two of the largest manufacturers of RAM and storage that they were essentially committing up to 40% of all RAM output for the foreseeable future. As that happened, we saw just this two then three then four alarm fire in the price of certain kinds of components specifically with RAM at first and then by the end of the year storage prices had started to jump. I was concerned and then analysts started predicting that this would have a sort of cascading effect through the entire electronics chain. By the end of the year as we were starting to get briefed on things that would happen in 2026. Companies like Dell, Lenovo, and HP were pointing very explicitly to memory pricing in a way that I'd never seen before and being more forthright than I'd ever seen that everything was going to be more expensive and by a lot more than I'd ever seen them discuss. And I think Kimber probably has a lot more transparency on that given how much they focus on laptops.
[Kimber Streams]: 是的,看着 Arthur 去年关注的那些情况,我给自己买了一块新的硬盘固态驱动器 (SSD),因为我看到价格正在朝那个方向发展,心想,“好吧,我要抢在涨价之前给自己买好。”然后在 1 月份的 国际消费类电子产品展览会 (CES) 上,我们开始询问那些公司:“这一年的情况会怎样?定价会如何?你们对比如 500 美元的笔记本电脑是怎么看的?”
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: Yeah, watching the same things that Arthur was watching last year, I bought myself a new hard drive SSD for my computer because I saw that those prices were going in that direction and I was like, okay, I'm going to get ahead of that for myself. And then during CES in January, we started asking companies like, "What does the year look like? What does pricing look like? What are you how are you thinking about, for example, $500 laptops?"
[Rosie Garin]: Kimber,CES 是消费电子展,每年在拉斯维加斯举行。我知道你和你的团队总是会去参加。当你们每年去这个展会的时候,都在寻找什么?
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: And Kimber CES is the consumer electronic show. It happens every year in Vegas. I know you and your team are always in attendance looking at Well, you tell me what what are you looking for when you all go to the conference every year?
[Kimber Streams]: 是的。它是每年科技发布的最大浪潮之一,各大公司会在此宣布一整年即将推出的众多产品。这也是一个直接与公司对话、了解当年科技趋势的好地方。我在那里和一些笔记本电脑制造商交谈,问他们:“今年的平价笔记本电脑会是什么样?”他们实质上告诉我,今年不会有这种情况了。他们根本没打算推出多少平价机型,甚至可能一台都不推。从那以后,我们开始看到各个笔记本电脑系列的特定型号都出现了显著的价格上涨。例如,我们以前推荐的平价 Chromebook 升级版是 Lenovo Chromebook Plus 14,售价为 750 美元。对于 Chromebook 来说听起来很高,但对于一款和 MacBook Air 差不多好用的设备来说,这其实是个相当不错的价格。但后来联想把这款机器的价格提高到了 1000 美元,现在我们不再将它作为推荐首选了,因为花 1000 美元买一台 Chromebook 实在是太多钱了。我们还看到所有笔记本电脑制造商全线提价。HP 把我们推荐的平价 Windows 笔记本电脑的价格从 850 美元提高到了 950 美元,在这个价位上,我已经不再把它看作是一款平价选择了。微软提高了其 Surface 笔记本电脑的价格。三星提高了 Galaxy Books 的价格。华硕推出了他们整个 Zenbook 系列,然后立刻全线提价数百美元。
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: Yes. It's one of the biggest waves of tech announcements in the year where companies are announcing a bunch of products that will come out throughout the whole year. It's also a good spot to talk to companies directly and kind of find out what the trends are in tech for the year. And I spoke to some laptop makers there and I was like, "What are budget laptops going to look like this year?" And they effectively told me that they're not going to look this year. They were not planning to launch many if any of them. And then since then, we've actually started seeing significant price increases on specific laptop models across whole laptop lines. For example, our former upgrade pick for Chromebooks, the Lenovo Chromebook Plus 14 was $750, which sounds like a lot for a Chromebook, but it's actually a pretty decent price for something that's about as nice as a MacBook Air. But then Lenovo raised the price on that to $1,000, and now we're demoting it from being a pick because $1,000 is a lot of money to spend on a Chromebook. We've also seen prices across the board from all of the laptop makers. HP increased the price of our budget Windows laptop pick from $850 to $950, which makes it not really something I would consider a budget option anymore at that price. Microsoft increased the prices on their Surface laptops. Samsung increased the prices on their Galaxy Books. Asus launched their whole Zenbook lineup and then immediately changed the prices upward on all of them by several hundred.
[Arthur Gies]: 那太疯狂了。
Original English
[Arthur Geese]: That was wild.
[Caitlyn McGary]: 我在我的职业生涯中从未见过这样的情况。
Original English
[Caitlyn McGary]: I have never seen anything like that in my career.
[Kimber Streams]: 闻所未闻。是的,从去年年底开始,组件价格开始上涨,从那时起我就想:“好吧,这将影响我们今年购买的所有东西。”
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: Unheard of. Yeah. late last year like the component prices started going up and from there it was like okay this will affect everything that we buy this year.
[Rosie Garin]: 当你说所有东西时,具体指什么?因为很明显我们在谈论笔记本电脑,还有哪些产品会受到这些价格上涨的影响?
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: So when you say everything what are we talking about cuz obviously we're talking about laptops what else is going to be under the umbrella of things that are going to be affected by these price increases.
[Arthur Gies]: 我们已经看到这种情况在手机上开始发生了,比如三星已经提高了他们几款旗舰手机的价格。视频游戏主机现在受到的冲击尤其严重。每一款视频游戏主机现在的售价都比发售时要高得多。我们上次交谈时,谈到了 Switch 2 以及其价格可能会上涨。我当时还有点担心,如果没涨的话我会看起来很蠢。结果,就在那一期节目播出后几乎立刻,他们就宣布价格会上涨。
Original English
[Arthur Geese]: We've already seen it start to happen with phones like Samsung has raised the prices on several of their flagship phones. Video game consoles are being hit especially hard right now. Every video game console costs significantly more than it did when it launched. Last time we spoke, we talked about the Switch 2 and how the price could probably go up. And there was some concern that I might look stupid if it didn't. And then almost immediately after that episode went live, they announced that it would.
[Rosie Garin]: 是的。
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: Yeah.
[Caitlyn McGary]: 你知道,在天塌下来之前不觉得自己像杞人忧天,这感觉还不错。
Original English
[Caitlyn McGary]: You know, it's nice to not feel like Chicken Little before the sky actually falls.
[Arthur Gies]: 是的。基本上,任何装有内存 (RAM) 的产品,价格都在上涨。
Original English
[Arthur Geese]: Yeah. Basically, anything that has RAM in it, the price is going up.
[Kimber Streams]: 存储器也是。存储器正在...
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: And storage as well. Storage is
[Caitlyn McGary]: 是的,我们看到像 micro SD 卡,就是你放在设备里用于存储的小卡片。它们的价格也在显著上涨。
Original English
[Caitlyn McGary]: Yeah, we're seeing like micro SD card, like little cards you put in your devices for storage. Those are increasing significantly.
[Rosie Garin]: 哦,我也刚买了一台新相机,我需要一张 micro SD 卡来搭配。我去买的时候,心想,我大概现在就是买不起了。我打算只依靠内部存储,因为几个月前它好像才 40 美元,现在变成 150 美元了。我当时就觉得,“好吧,那我不买了。”
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: Oh, I just bought a new camera as well, and I need a micro SD card for that. And I went to buy one, and I was like, I guess I'm just not buying one right now. I'm just going to rely on the internal storage because I think it was like 40 bucks a couple of months ago, and now it's like 150. And I was like, "Well, I'm I'm not buying that."
[Kimber Streams]: 是的,这些是疯狂的涨价。不仅仅是涨个 10 块或 20 块钱。
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: Yeah, these are like wild price increases. It's not just like 10 or 20 bucks.
AI 是如何抢走消费者的内存的
[Rosie Garin]: 内存和存储器。这些是重要的术语,我想稍微停顿一下,确保我们解释清楚。定义一下什么是 RAM。它的价格是如何上涨的?为什么会上涨?特别是,为什么这很重要?
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: Storage and RAM. These are important terms that I want to just take a quick pause and make sure we explain. Define what RAM is. How is it increasing? Why is it increasing in price? And why is that significant specifically?
[Kimber Streams]: 所以,RAM 代表随机存取存储器 (Random Access Memory),这也是 Daft Punk 在 2013 年发行的一张专辑。开玩笑的。不过它确实是这个意思。你可以把它想象成电脑的短期记忆,而硬盘或 SSD 则像是长期记忆,用来保存文档、截图、视频等等。所以,你在特定时间打开的所有程序和标签页都在使用这个 RAM。这就好比,你知道,在你日常生活中打电话的时候,你也在看短信,然后你的孩子走进房间因为他们需要什么,同时你还在试图计划晚餐吃什么,而且你还在幻想着去海滩度假,所有这些同时进行。你在电脑上多任务处理得越多,你就越需要更多的 RAM 来有效地完成这些。所以 8 GB 大概足够应付日常的简单任务了,比如你在这个有许多大脑活动的列表里只做一半的事情,但通常我们推荐 16 GB 才能舒舒服服地做所有这些事情。而且无论什么时候你买一台新电脑,你都希望它至少能用 5 年,尤其是现在。
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: So, RAM stands for random excess memory, which is an album that was released by Defunk in 2013. Um, just kidding. It does uh stand for that, though. So, think of it like the short-term memory of your computer, whereas the hard drive or the SSD is kind of the long-term memory where you keep documents and screenshots and videos and all of that. So, all of the programs and tabs you have open at a given time are using that RAM. kind of like, you know, just in your everyday life when you're on the phone, you're also reading a text and then your kid comes into the room because they need something and then you're also trying to plan what's for dinner, but you're also daydreaming about a beach vacation all at once. The more you're multitasking on your computer, the more RAM you need to do that effectively. So 8 gigs is about enough to get by for simple everyday tasks like maybe you're doing half of those things in that list of many brain activities, but typically we recommend 16 to be able to do all of that stuff comfortably. And also whenever you buy a new computer, you want it to last at least 5 years, especially right now.
[Rosie Garin]: 所以是 8 GB、16 GB。这是专门针对电脑的,还是手机也适用。比如在针对不同物品时,你是如何考虑 RAM 的?
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: So 8 gigs, 16 gigs. This is for computers specifically or this is also phones. Like how do you think about RAM in relationship to different items?
[Kimber Streams]: 比如,这是专门针对日常用电脑的。如果你做一些比较重的任务,比如玩游戏或者做视频剪辑之类的,即便是在笔记本上,你也会需要比这更多的内存。然后针对手机我们有不同的推荐标准。
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: So this is for like everyday computers specifically. If you're doing heavier tasks like gaming or like video editing and stuff, even on a laptop, you will want more than that. And then phones we have different recommendations for.
[Caitlyn McGary]: 是的,在手机上你不需要那么多的内存。
Original English
[Caitlyn McGary]: Yeah, you don't need quite as much RAM on a phone.
[Rosie Garin]: Kimber,RAM 变得越来越贵。为什么?
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: Kimber RAM is getting more expensive. Why?
[Kimber Streams]: 因为制造这些组件(以及存储器)的公司,正在优先把他们制造的东西卖给建立 AI 服务器的公司,而不是那些为普通人制造个人电脑和手机的公司。这是一个优先级的排序,焦点在于 AI,不仅仅在这个国家,而是全球范围内。所以这就决定了现在精力和资金主要流向了那里,而不是流向个人消费科技产品。
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: Because the companies that make that and also storage are prioritizing selling the stuff that they're making to companies that are setting up AI servers instead of the companies who are making personal computers and phones for regular people. It's a prioritization thing where the focus is on AI not just in this country but globally. And so that's sort of where the the energy and the money is going right now versus to personal consumer tech.
[Caitlyn McGary]: 是的。
Original English
[Caitlyn McGary]: Yes.
[Rosie Garin]: 那么这意味着什么呢?这里除了价格上涨之外还有什么影响?
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: So what does it mean? What's the ramification here beyond prices are going up?
[Kimber Streams]: 是的。所以对于普通人来说,这有点意味着笔记本电脑——具体来说,也就是科技行业整体——正在倒退。具体谈到笔记本电脑,在过去几年里,你还有可能找到售价在 500 美元以下且配备 16 GB 内存的合格的 Windows 笔记本电脑。也就是足够快、足够舒适地让你做你需要做的所有事情。当然这几率不大。那个价位的大部分笔记本仍然很糟糕,但在那个价位找到体面的笔记本在技术上是可行的,只要你花大量的时间和精力。而现在,到了 2026 年,我看到公司发布的笔记本电脑配备 8 GB 内存,起价就要 700 美元。这意味着这是他们销售的最低价格,往上只会更贵。所以,经济实惠的体面笔记本电脑正变得越来越稀缺。
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: Yeah. So for regular people it kind of means that laptops specifically but kind of tech generally is going backwards. So, talking about laptops specifically, in the past couple years, it was possible to find a passable Windows laptop under $500 with 16 gigs of RAM. So, like fast enough, comfortable enough to be doing all of the things you need to be doing on it. It wasn't likely. Most of the laptops in that price range were still awful, but it was technically possible with a lot of time and effort to find decent laptops there. Now, in 2026, I'm seeing companies announce laptops with 8 gigs of RAM that are starting at $700. that means that's the lowest price they're selling it for and then it will be more expensive from there. So decent laptops on a budget are getting real scarce.
[Rosie Garin]: 转向存储器,关于我们为什么会看到这方面的价格明显上涨,有什么可说的吗?
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: Moving to storage, what is there to say about why we're seeing price increases there specifically?
[Arthur Gies]: 是的,其实 RAM 和存储器基本上是由相同的公司制造的,而且整个 RAM 和存储器的市场主要被三家公司所占据。首先是很多人都知道的三星(Samsung),还有 SK Hynix,这两家公司都位于韩国;然后是位于美国的镁光(Micron),这三家公司占了 RAM 和存储器总产量的约 90%。
Original English
[Arthur Geese]: Yeah, so RAM and storage are essentially made by the same companies and the entire market of RAM and storage is owned primarily by three companies. There's Samsung which many people know and SKH Highix which are both located in South Korea and then there's Micron which is located here in America and that accounts for about 90% of both RAM and storage.
[Rosie Garin]: 这些必需部件的制造怎么会被这么少的几家公司控制呢?
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: How how how is it that so few companies control the manufacturing of these requisite components?
[Arthur Gies]: 制造现代的存储器和 RAM 非常困难,而且成本极高。当我们谈论手机和电脑等产品的现代制造时,我们面对的是纳米级规模的晶体管。每一块芯片都有数百万个晶体管,而它们的宽度只有几纳米。
Original English
[Arthur Geese]: It's really hard and really expensive to make modern storage and RAM. Like when we're talking about modern manufacturing for things like phones and computers, we're on the nanometer scale of transistor. Like every chip has millions of transistors and they're nanometers wide.
[Rosie Garin]: 所以本质上说……
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: So essentially
[Arthur Gies]: 那真的非常非常小。
Original English
[Arthur Geese]: that's real small.
[Rosie Garin]: 那真的……可以说相当小了。
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: That's it's really pretty small.
[Arthur Gies]: 它实在是太小了。建造这些工厂非常非常昂贵,维护它们的成本也极高。它们需要消耗大量的电力、大量的水资源,并且需要获取并非随时都有充足供应的资源。制造这些东西的公司以前一直是按相对能让人负担得起的节奏在生产。老实说,直到去年年底,RAM 和存储器的价格还处于我们见过的最实惠的水平。到了 10 月份,当 OpenAI 与三星及 SK Hynix 签署这项协议时,它在这些巨头公司之间引发了一场类似于军备竞赛的热潮,大家都在争相确保自己的存储和内存来源。这导致了需求远远超过了生产能力。为了应对这种情况,人们的确在试图做点什么,但这需要大量时间。这是这种东西需求结构上前所未有的变化。
Original English
[Arthur Geese]: It's so small. It's just really really expensive to build these factories and it's really expensive to maintain them. They take a lot of power. They take a lot of water and they take a lot of access to resources that are not necessarily in ready supply. And the companies that make this stuff were making it at a relatively affordable pace. And honestly, RAM and storage until late last year were about as affordable as we'd ever seen it. And in October when OpenAI signed this agreement with Samsung and SKH heinix, it created a sort of arms race between these huge companies to also secure their source of storage and memory. And that has led to more demand than there is the ability to manufacture. And responding to that is something that people are trying to do to a degree, but it takes a lot of time. It's just an unprecedented change in the demand structure for this kind of stuff.
[Rosie Garin]: 所以我想这里面有供应链的问题。关税——我们去年谈了很多关税问题,也是一个因素。所以我很好奇,Caitlyn,你怎么看关税因素对这些科技产品全线提价的影响?
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: So, I imagine supply chain is an issue here. Tariffs, we talked a lot about tariffs last year, another issue. So, I'm curious, Caitlyn, how do you think about tariffs playing into these across the board price increases for these tech products?
[Caitlyn McGary]: 我的意思是,去年我们看到公司在很大程度上避免了像今年这样提价,因为他们有已经进口的库存商品。关税在几个月甚至好几个月之前就已经提前发出信号了。我们基本上知道它们会发生。我个人当时就是因为预见到这些才买了一台笔记本电脑,他们当时只是有很多东西堆放着,打算以目前的价格出售。但这实际上不是我们现在在这里看到的情况。现在这完全是因为对组件的需求爆炸式增长,而各大公司根本没有准备好应对。
Original English
[Caitlyn McGary]: I mean, last year we saw companies largely avoid raising prices the way that we have seen them raise prices this year because they had stockpiles of stuff that they had already imported. The tariffs were telegraphed months and months in advance. We basically knew they were going to happen. I personally bought a laptop because I was expecting them to happen and they just had a bunch of stuff sitting around like to be sold at current prices. So that's not actually what we're seeing here. Like this is entirely because of this explosion in demand for components that companies just weren't prepared for.
[Rosie Garin]: 那还有没有人们可以利用的库存,还是我们现在已经库存不足了?
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: Are there still stock piles that people can take advantage of or we're running low here?
[Caitlyn McGary]: 是的,我们差不多消耗殆尽了。每年产品都会更新换代,会增加新功能,变得更强大。科技产品的保质期不长。你显然可以买到一些可能还在百思买或亚马逊仓库里积灰的旧设备,但这些设备的软件支持时间没有新设备长。
Original English
[Caitlyn McGary]: Yeah, we're pretty much out. Um, so every year, you know, products are refreshed, they get new features, they become more powerful. Tech doesn't have a long shelf life. You can obviously buy like an older device that might be kicking around at Best Buy or on Amazon, but those devices aren't supported with software for as long as new ones.
[Arthur Gies]: 是的。在某些方面,关税实际上在今年带给我们的缓冲效果比我们预想的要大。当我在 2 月和 3 月写那篇文章时,文章的名字叫《廉价笔记本电脑的消亡即将来临》,因为它当时还没完全到来,人们还在出售他们去年积累的免关税库存。但现在那些库存大部分都没了。现在我们面临的正是 Kimber 所描述的局面:这些东西一开始就比去年贵,而现在又比 3 个月前贵了。这是因为 AI 对组件的吸纳量正在增加,而不是在减少,它在不断上升。
Original English
[Arthur Geese]: Yeah. In some ways, tariffs actually cushioned us more this year than we had hoped. When I wrote the piece back in February and March, the name of the article was that the death of the cheap laptop is coming because it wasn't quite here yet because people were selling the tariff stock that they had amassed last year. But that stock is mostly gone. And now what we're left with is what Kimber is describing, which are these things that started off more expensive than they were last year and now are more expensive than they were like 3 months ago. And it's because the AI uptake of components is increasing. It's not reducing, it's going up.
AI 巨头与消费者的博弈
[Rosie Garin]: 好的,价格绝对在以令人担忧的幅度上涨,其原因与现在和未来对生产出来的 RAM 和存储器的竞争有关。我们先稍微休息一下,回来后我们将谈谈显而易见的问题,即那个最猛烈推高我们设备价格的因素——AI。您正在收听《Wirecutter Show》。不要走开。欢迎回来。读了你的文章,Arthur,很明显 AI 是这里的一个巨大因素。让我们聚焦 AI。AI 在这个问题中扮演了什么角色?
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: All right, prices are definitely rising by concerning amounts and the reason has to do with competition for the RAM and storage being manufactured now and in the future. We're going to take just a quick break and when we come back we'll talk about the elephant in the room, the factor that's most aggressively driving up the prices of our devices, AI. You're listening to the Wire Cutter Show. Stick around. Welcome back. Reading your piece, Arthur, AI is obviously a huge factor here. Let's zoom in on AI. What role is AI playing in this issue?
[Arthur Gies]: AI 在此问题上的主要责任在于,所有的内存、所有的存储器基本上都是在同样的地方、由同样的元件制造出来的。而每一块被制造出来的用于 AI 的存储器和 RAM,就意味着少制造了一块用于消费级的内存和存储器。在这些公司能够制造出更多产能之前,AI 公司简直愿意支付高得多的价格。他们就像拥有几乎无限资金的钱包一样。他们花费着几千亿美元,在某些情况下甚至接近或超过这个数字,来收购这些东西。不仅仅是收购现货,还在购买关于未来甚至还没生产出来的产品的协议。这为那些制造产品卖给我们的公司造成了一种极其危险且难以预测的供应链状况。我脑海里浮现出了小学代数里学过的大于号、小于号:这些 AI 公司能向制造商提供的资金,甚至远大于我们作为消费者联合起来能在这些产品上花的钱。你知道,我甚至会把它比作过去几年的房地产市场,有人在试图找房子时,另一个人走进来用现金报出双倍的要价,你怎么能与之竞争呢?
Original English
[Arthur Geese]: The way that AI is responsible for this is that all memory, all storage is basically made from the same same bits in the same places. And every piece of AI storage and RAM that's made is a piece of consumer AI and storage that is not made. Until these companies are able to make more, AI companies are just willing to pay a lot more. Like they have these almost infinite wallets. They're spending hundreds of billions of dollars. They're approaching more than that in some cases on buying up this stuff. And not just buying it up, but buying up agreements in the future for things that aren't even manufactured yet. And that creates a really dangerous and difficult to predict supply chain situation for companies that are making stuff to sell to us. I'm thinking of the greater than less than sign, you know, when you're learning algebra or whatever in in in elementary school where what these AI companies are able to offer the manufacturers is is greater than even our combined wallets in terms of how much money we as consumers are able to spend on the products. You know, I would almost compare it to like the housing market of the last several years where people would talk about trying to find a house and someone would come in and offer double asking price in cash and how do you compete with that?
[Kimber Streams]: 现在想象一下,有人报出了甚至三倍的价格。
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: Now imagine someone offering like triple
[Arthur Gies]: 三倍的要价,并且随后还说“在接下来的 2 年里你们建的每一栋房子,我们都要了”。这些公司极难与之竞争,也很难做出规划。像苹果、戴尔这样的公司,之所以能够保持竞争力、能够降低价格,就是依靠利用供应链中与制造内存、存储器的公司建立的关系,通过以低于少量购买的价格大量采购组件。当有些公司为了 AI 目的而投入如此巨额的资金时,这种原有的关系就毫无意义了。因此,它推高了价格。而令我担忧的是,我们还没有真正看到情况会恶化到什么地步。我认为我们在看到隧道尽头的曙光之前,还得在非常漫长的黑暗中摸索。
Original English
[Arthur Geese]: that asking price and then saying in every house you build for the next 2 years we want that too. It's extremely difficult for these companies to compete and also to plan. planning is how companies like Apple, how companies like Dell are able to be competitive, how they've been able to lower prices is by leveraging these supply chain relationships with the companies that make memory, with the companies that make storage to buy a lot of their stuff for less money than they would if they were buying less of it. And those relationships don't mean anything when companies are offering as much money as they are for their AI purposes. And so it's driven prices up. And the thing that worries me is that we really haven't seen how bad this is going to get yet. I think that we are staring down a very long tunnel before we see the end of it.
[Rosie Garin]: 在 AI 方面,有哪些公司正参与其中,向这些制造公司注入如此巨大的资本?
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: Who are some of the players in terms of companies on the AI side who are coming in and infusing all of this capital into these manufacturing companies?
[Arthur Gies]: 英伟达 (Nvidia),地球上最有价值的公司。他们为其服务器硬件购买了数量庞大的 RAM。显然,OpenAI 也花费了巨额资金。Anthropic 是另一家公司。然后你还有更传统的科技巨头,比如 Google 正在花费一笔财富,还有微软、Meta。这些公司被称为“超大规模企业 (hyperscalers)”,这意味着他们正变得比其他人可能尝试达到的规模都要大得多,大到大而不倒的地步。与此同时,像苹果这样实力非常雄厚的公司,说实话,在这个对话中被有点抛在后面了,因为他们根本就没有在试图在同一个领域进行竞争。而戴尔、惠普所有这些大型消费级笔记本电脑公司和消费电子公司,根本无法与这些其他超大规模企业所花费的资金相抗衡。因此,制造我们所使用的科技产品的公司,现在只能在 RAM 和存储器的供应“蛋糕”中勉强分到比过去小得多的一块。这也是为什么我们看到他们推出的设备内存减少的原因,因为他们正试图用更少的资源制造更多的设备,让人们至少还能拥有一台电脑。对于手机,我们甚至看到公司直接取消了最低起始存储选项。所以这实际上提高了价格。你知道的,如果这款手机过去 999 美元能买到入门级存储容量,现在它要接近 1100 美元才能买到更大的存储容量,这其实并不像听起来那么划算,纯粹就是价格上涨了。很快就不再有电脑了。很快就没有电脑了,我们将获得自由,大家干脆都到户外去接触大自然好了。
Original English
[Arthur Geese]: There's Nvidia with the most valuable company on earth. They are buying an enormous amount of RAM for their server hardware. Open AAI obviously is spending an enormous amount of money. Anthropic is another company. And then you have the more traditional tech players like Google is spending a fortune. Microsoft, Meta. These companies are are what are referred to as hyperscalers, which means that they are becoming much bigger than everyone else could ever conceivably try to be in order to get to a place where they can't fail. Meanwhile, companies like Apple, who are a very powerful company, are honestly kind of being left behind in this conversation because they're just not trying to compete in the same space. and Dell, HP, all these companies that are big consumer laptop companies and consumer electronics companies just can't compete with the amounts of money that these other hyperscalers are spending. the companies that make the tech that we use are kind of making do with a much smaller slice of the pie as far as like supply of RAM and storage than they have in the past, which is why we're seeing them launch devices with less cuz they're trying to make do with less in more devices in a way that people can still have any kind of computer. For phones, we're seeing actually companies discontinue the lowest starting storage option. So that effectively raises the price. You know, if the phone used to be $9.99 for the entry level storage, now it's, you know, closer to $1,100 with more storage, which isn't actually quite as good of a deal as it sounds when it's just the price has gone up. Soon there will be no computers. Soon there will be no computers and we'll be free and we'll just all go outside and touch.
[Kimber Streams]: 听起来感觉还有点解放。
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: Sounds a little bit liberating
我们还能做什么?
[Rosie Garin]: 在这个节目上说这种话。具有讽刺意味的是,我们经常告诉大家不要买东西,如果真需要买,就等促销。所以我很好奇,比如劳工节、亚马逊即将到来的会员日等促销活动,人们能期待看到可以利用的科技产品特卖或折扣吗?
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: on this show. The irony is that we're often telling folks not to buy things and if you do need to buy things, wait for a sale. And so I'm curious, there are these sales events, Labor Day, Prime Day for Amazon, I think, is coming up. Should people expect to see tech sales or deals that we can take advantage of?
[Kimber Streams]: 我希望如此。坦白说,我们提前也不知道会有什么促销,但我很希望能看到一些。在阵亡将士纪念日期间,我们确实看到了 MacBook Air 的一些折扣。所以,如果人们需要的话,那些算是很好的日常用笔记本电脑。然而,我们的交易专家并没有在那个活动期间看到 Windows 笔记本电脑或 Chromebook 的任何显著折扣。所以我们希望以后能看到更多。
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: I hope so. I mean, frankly, we don't know in advance what the sales are going to be, but I would love to see some. Over Memorial Day, we did see a few sales on the MacBook Air. So, those are kind of good everyday laptops if people need them. Our deals experts did not see any significant sales during that event for Windows laptops or Chromebooks, though. So, we're hoping to see some more of those.
[Rosie Garin]: 这不寻常吗?通常我们会看到 PC 打折的。
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: And is that unusual? Ordinarily, we would see deals on PCs.
[Arthur Gies]: 是的。是的。历史上,我们曾看到过这方面大量的价格下降,实际上通常比 MacBook 的折扣力度还要大。我们曾看到过联想在假日期间表现出极其激进的促销力度,但今年他们也是我们所见到的提价最激进的公司之一。因此,对于这件事我不抱太高期望。
Original English
[Arthur Geese]: Yes. Yes. Historically, we've seen lots of price dips there and usually more aggressive ones actually than the MacBook sales. We've seen Lenovo get really aggressive with sales around holiday periods in particular, but they've also been some of the most aggressive price increases we've seen this year. So, I wouldn't necessarily hold my breath on that.
[Caitlyn McGary]: 但是,我们正看到像某些公司在发布产品时,却不公布相对应的价格。
Original English
[Caitlyn McGary]: But, we are seeing companies like announce products and not announce the prices that will go along with them
[Kimber Streams]: 因为他们不知道。
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: because they don't know.
[Caitlyn McGary]: 因为他们不知道。Kimber 最近一直在处理这种状况。
Original English
[Caitlyn McGary]: Because they don't know. Kimber's been dealing with this a lot.
[Rosie Garin]: 是的,Kimber,在实际情况中那是什么样的?
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: Yeah, Kimber, what does that look like in practice?
[Kimber Streams]: 在实际操作中这极其让人沮丧。比如,我现在正试图为返校季寻找便宜的笔记本电脑。我想弄清楚返校季会有哪些笔记本上市。但到目前为止,在这方面我并没有得到很多信息。戴尔说他们要在 6 月推出一款主打平价的 XPS 13。它的起价是 700 美元,这并没有我想要的那么平价。然后 高通 (Qualcomm) 也发布了新的 Snapdragon C 处理器,公司宣称价格大概在 300 美元范围内。所以我非常有兴趣想知道使用这些机器会是什么感觉。但我们目前根本没有关于它们何时发售的任何信息。
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: It's uh super super frustrating in practice. Uh for example, I'm trying to research laptops that are inexpensive for back to school season right now. So, I'm trying to figure out what laptops are going to be around for back to school season. And so far, I don't have a lot of information on that front. Dell says uh that it's launching a new budget focused XPS13 and that that's launching in June. It's starting at $700, which is not as budget focused as I want it to be. And then Qualcomm has also announced new Snapdragon C processors that the company claims is going to be in the $300 range. So I'm very interested in what those are going to feel like to use. We have no information on when they're going to be available right now.
[Rosie Garin]: 没错。所以情况是,你不知道它们何时上市,不知道它们的成本,也不知道性能,因为你没法亲自上手测试。似乎这件事周围笼罩着浓浓的迷雾。
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: Right. So, it's you don't know when they're going to be available. You don't know the cost of them. You don't know performance cuz you aren't able to get your hands on them. So, there's a lot of fog around this, it seems.
[Kimber Streams]: 是的。考虑到今年上半年的情况,我认为许多公司害怕现在宣布一个信息,随后又不得不因为局势改变而再次提价。他们在 1 月份的消费电子展上公布了一些价格,但在接下来的几个月里,随着一切都在发生变化,他们不得不更改定价。因此我认为,除非迫不得已,他们只是选择表现得非常保守,什么都不告诉大家。这对于那些正在挑选笔记本电脑,或者像我们这样试图帮助别人挑选笔记本电脑的人来说,要弄清楚到底是怎么回事就变得非常困难。
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: Yes. A lot of companies, I think, are afraid to have to announce one thing right now and then have to raise prices again given how the first half of this year has gone where they announced some prices at the Consumer Electronic Show in January and then they've had to change them in the intervening months as everything has shifted. So, I think that they're just choosing to be very koi and not tell anybody anything until they have to, which makes it kind of difficult um as a person who's shopping for a laptop or a person who's trying to help people shop for laptops, figure out what the heck is going on
[Rosie Garin]: 以及你是否还能在这些购物指南里使用“经济实惠”这个词。我们把什么样的价格称为经济实惠?
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: and whether you're going to be able to use the word affordable in these guides or not. What are we calling affordable?
[Kimber Streams]: 是的。过去我们通常推荐低于 500 美元的笔记本作为平价首选,因为那是大家在寻找的价位。我认为现在这种机器已经不存在了。所以,我们曾讨论过要把该指南的上限提高,使其与售价 600 美元的 MacBook Neo 保持一致,因为那是一台在这个价位上可以作为比较基准的很棒的平价笔记本。但问题在于,如果所有 PC 厂商都推出起价在 700 美元的产品,我甚至不确定在 600 美元及以下的价位还会剩下什么机器。
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: Yes. So, we used to recommend laptops under $500 as budget because that's what people were looking for. I don't think that exists anymore. So, we've talked about shifting the kind of cap on that guide to match the MacBook Neo at $600 because that's a great budget laptop at a price point that we're kind of comparing everything else to. I'm just not sure what's going to exist even at $600 and below if all of these PC makers are launching things that are starting at 700.
[Rosie Garin]: Kimber,既然我们在今天讨论的背景下,专门谈谈笔记本电脑,返校季是一个非常重要的时间节点。你会建议人们现在就进行返校科技产品购物,还是再等一等?我们作为消费者,作为那些想要或需要购买科技产品的人们,真的有任何应对之策吗?我们能抵制这些价格上涨吗,或者这就真的是像西西弗斯推石头一样,我们在试图对抗 AI 的巨石,而我们永远只会更小、更弱?
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: Kimber, thinking about laptops specifically, you know, back to school is a huge moment given our conversation today. Would you recommend folks do their back to school tech shopping now rather than waiting? Do we have recourse at all as consumers, people wanting needing to buy tech products? Can we push back against these increases or is it really is is it the cisphus thing where we're trying to push against the the boulder of of AI and we're always going to be smaller and weaker.
[Kimber Streams]: 这有点取决于你的需求。所以,如果你需要一台便宜的 MacBook,那么是的,现在就去买 MacBook Neo。库存相当不错,价格也很稳固,而且没有严重的运输延迟。但同时,我们也不知道未来的情况是否会发生改变。然后,如果你需要更高档的东西来上大学,你想花 1000 美元买那种轻薄本或者 MacBook Air,现在买也是个不错的时间点,能买到电池续航很棒且在 1000 美元价格区间里的东西。但是,如果你需要非常便宜的东西,比如 Chromebook 或者 500 美元以下的 Windows 笔记本,实际上现在的选择并不多。所以,你可能会被迫去找二手商品,试图找个好的翻新机,或者就只能等下去,希望能从现在到 8 月之间出现什么改变。不幸的是,作为消费者你真正拥有的唯一选择是:**如果你现在需要一台电脑,现在就买。特别是如果你能找到促销打折的。**如果有任何方法能榨取你现有设备更多的使用寿命,那就这么做。更新所有的操作系统和应用软件。清理你的存储空间。卸载你没有在使用的应用。尝试让你现有的电脑坚持尽可能长的时间。或者你也许能找到些二手的。
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: Kind of depends on what you need. So if you need like a cheap MacBook, then yes, like grab the MacBook Neo right now. stock is pretty good, the price is solid, and there's not like huge shipping delays on it, but we also don't know if that's going to change going forward. And then if you need like a higherend thing for college and you want to spend like $1,000 for something like Thin and Light or the MacBook Air, now is also a pretty decent time to buy something in that like $1,000 like great battery life price range. But if you need something super cheap that's like a Chromebook or a Windows laptop under $500, there's actually not a lot of options available right now. So, you might be stuck looking for something used, trying to find like a good refurb or just having to wait it out and hope that something changes between now and August. Unfortunately, that thing the only options you really have as a consumer are if you need a computer, buy one now. Especially if you can find it on sale. If there's any way that you can squeeze more life out of the thing you already have, do that. Update all of your operating system and apps. Clean up your storage. Uninstall apps you're not using. Try and make your computer that you have last as long as humanly possible. Uh you might be able to find something used.
[Rosie Garin]: 是的。对于购买二手商品,你有什么建议吗?
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: Yeah. What are your recommendations for buying used?
[Kimber Streams]: 如果你需要买一台二手电脑,我会说,避开 Craigslist、eBay 或者 Reddit。鉴于现在大环境属于“能买到什么算什么”的情况,我现在的立场可能会稍微温和一点。如果你知道自己在干什么,在这些网站上买到好东西也是可能的,但是由于误导性的商品列表而被骗,或者买回一台仅仅只是预装了恶意软件的二手电脑的风险非常高。最好的选择其实是制造商的翻新电脑。电脑制造商亲自回收某人退回或通过某种方式使用过的笔记本电脑。他们确保它达到标准。他们进行所有的维修工作,然后再卖给你。苹果提供和新电脑一样长的保修期,所以那将是你最好的选择。联想和惠普也提供翻新机,但他们保修期较短,只有一年。如果你在这些地方都找不到合适的机器,你也可以在百思买、新蛋 (Newegg) 或 OWC 等零售商处购买翻新的个人电脑。但在这种情况下,“翻新”更多只是“二手”的一个花哨的说法而已,因为并非制造商亲自进行的翻新。如果你在这些网站购物,你需要寻找能找到的最长保修期。而且你应该坚持买那些标有优质、九成新或状况很好的商品。一定要反复确认,以确保你避开了这些网站上任何可疑的第三方卖家,并且你是直接从零售商那里购买的。所以,比如网页上会写着“由百思买发货和销售”或者“由新蛋发货和销售”,而不是其中夹杂着其他的第三方卖家。
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: If you need a used computer, I would say avoid Craigslist, eBay, or Reddit. I would kind of be a little bit softer on that stance now given that it's kind of a get what you can get situation out there. It is possible to get a good deal on those sites if you know what you're doing, but there are a lot of ways to get scammed or tripped up by misleading listings or end up with like a PC that's just preloaded with malware if you're shopping on those sites. The best options are actually manufacturer refurbished computers. The computer maker themselves takes the laptop that someone has returned to them or is used in some kind of way. They make sure that it's up to snuff. They do all of the repairs on it and then they'll sell it to you. Apple offers the same warranties that they offer on new computers, so those are going to be your best bets. Lenovo and HP also offer refurbs, but they have a shorter one-year warranty. And then if you can't find anything in those places, you can also shop for refurbished PCs on retailers like Best Buy, Newegg, or OWC. But in this case, refurbished is more just a fancy word for used because it's not the maker itself doing the refurb. If you're shopping on one of those sites, you want to look for the longest warranty you can find. And you should stick to items that are in excellent, like new, or very good condition. Definitely double check to make sure that you're avoiding any sketchy third party sellers on those sites and that you're purchasing directly from the retailer. So, it'll say like ships from and sold by Best Buy or ships from and sold by Newegg rather than having another third party in there.
[Rosie Garin]: 好的,最后几句。而且最好只有乐观的话才会被接受。Arthur,你先来。
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: Okay, last words. And ideally, they will only be accepted if they are optimistic. Arthur, you go first.
[Arthur Gies]: 哦,那太苛刻了。
Original English
[Arthur Geese]: Oh, that's mean.
[Arthur Gies]: 我在加州长大,你知道的,那里经历过很多次干旱,而在加州一个常见的讨论就是关于干旱预防和防旱准备。那是一个关于你如何改变自己的习惯和行为,以应对人们习以为常的事物变得短缺的讨论。在很多方面,我认为我们目前看到的状况就像是那样。我确实认为这会带来很多负面影响,但这也是一个机会,让你重新审视自己与技术的关系,你是如何使用它的,你在它上面花了多少时间,以及是否有更好的方式来利用你的时间,或者更有效率的方式来使用技术并延长它的使用寿命。所以我认为,如果要找一个时间来审视你在科技上花费的时间、你花在它上面的钱,以及它与你生活的联系的话,那么现在就是最好的时机。因为我们已经不再处于那种如果有什么东西坏了或你需要什么东西,你就能确信自己买得起的处境里了。因此我认为这是一个让你在变化被迫发生之前,提前做出改变的机会。
Original English
[Arthur Geese]: I grew up in California, which, you know, went through like a lot of droughts and a sort of common conversation in California was sort of drought prevention and drought preparedness. And that was a discussion about how do you modify your habits and behavior to account for something that people take for granted being in short supply. And in a lot of ways, I think that that is kind of what we're looking at. And I and I do think that that will have plenty of negatives, but it is also an opportunity to sort of re-evaluate your relationship to technology and how you use it and how you spend your time on it and like whether or not there are better ways for you to spend your time or more sort of efficient ways to use tech and make it last longer. And so I think if ever there was a time to look at how you spend your time on technology, how you spend your money on it, what its connection is to your life, it would be now because we're not in a situation where you can expect that if something fails or you need something, you're going to be able to afford it. So I think that it is a chance to make changes now before theyre made for you.
[Kimber Streams]: 对我来说,MacBook Neo 就像是目前这片惨淡沉闷的计算市场里的一缕阳光。每当它刚发布时,我对它的规格其实是抱有警惕的,因为它只有 8 GB 的内存。我对它 600 美元的定价印象也不深,因为在当时你花 380 美元就能买到一台 Windows 笔记本或 Chromebook,那个选择当时还算不错。但是在用了这台 Neo 几个月之后,我非常惊讶地发现,比起具有类似规格和同样面临内存限制的 Windows 笔记本,无论是在机身做工质量的角度来看,还是在性能方面,使用它的感觉都好得太多了。而且,既然自 Neo 发布以来,平价笔记本和 Windows 笔记本的库存几乎全干涸了,而且只被更昂贵的选择所取代,相比较之下,Neo 看起来就只有更好了。
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: I I guess the MacBook Neo to me is like a ray of sunshine in this bleak bleak computing landscape right now. Whenever it first launched, I was wary of its specs since it only has 8 gigs of RAM. I was not super impressed with its $600 price tag because you could get a Windows laptop or a Chromebook for 380. That was like pretty good at the time. But now that I've used the Neo for a couple of months, I have been very impressed with how much better it feels to use than Windows laptops with similar specs and that similar RAM limitation, both from a build quality perspective and performance-wise. And then since the stock of cheap laptops and Windows laptops has almost entirely dried up since the Neo's launch, and it's only been replaced with more expensive options, the Neo only looks better comparatively.
[Rosie Garin]: 我今天确确实实给我侄女买了一台,作为她 13 岁的生日礼物。
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: I literally bought one today for my niece for her 13th birthday.
[Kimber Streams]: 哇哦。
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: Wow.
[Rosie Garin]: 好的,Caitlyn,最后几句交给你。
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: All right, Caitlyn, last word.
[Caitlyn McGary]: 我的意思是,这种事情是周期性的。我想几年内情况会发生变化的。与此同时,你现在可以购买一些质量极高、能让你用很长时间的东西。你知道,现在制造的笔记本电脑确实倾向于能够使用好几年,尤其如果你听从我们的建议去买尽可能最好的产品的话。而且我们总是在评估保修服务,同时也会评估这些产品获得软件更新和安全更新支持的时间有多长。所以,你现在买的任何东西都够你用很长一段时间。当你再次需要买东西时。希望能有更好的风向。但是,是的,与此同时,只关注你需要什么,不要对剩下的事情过于担心。
Original English
[Caitlyn McGary]: I mean, this stuff is cyclical. I think in a couple years things will change. Um, and in the meantime, you can buy something right now that's extremely high quality that will last you for a long time. You know, laptops that are made now, they do tend to last for years and years, especially if you are following our recommendations and getting the best possible thing. And we're always evaluating warranties, but also how long will these products be supported with software updates and security updates. So, whatever you buy now will last you a long time. and when you need to buy something again. Hopefully the tides will have changed. But yeah, in the meantime, just focus on what you need and don't worry too much about the rest of it.
[Rosie Garin]: 非常、非常感谢你们。这期节目信息量很大而且真的非常有帮助。一如既往,我们会在节目注释里链接大家出色的文章和报道,我鼓励大家去看看,真的非常感谢你们。
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: Thank you all so so much. This was really informative and really very helpful. As ever, we will link all of your brilliant writing and reporting in our show notes and I encourage folks to check that out and I really appreciate you guys.
[Caitlyn McGary]: 谢谢。
Original English
[Caitlyn McGary]: Thanks.
[Kimber Streams]: 非常感谢邀请我们。
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: Thanks so much for having
[Rosie Garin]: 《Wirecutter Show》的执行制作人是我,Rosie Garin,制作人是 Abigail Keiel。工程技术支持来自 Mattie Maziello 和 Nick Pitman。本期节目由 Catherine Anderson 混音。原创音乐由 Dan Powell、Marian Losano、Alicia Eup、Rowan Nisto、Katherine Anderson 和 Diane Wong 提供。Cliff Levy 是 Wirecutter 的副出版人兼总经理。Ben Fman 是 Wirecutter 的总编辑。我是 Rosie Garin。感谢您的收听。
Original English
[Rosie Garin]: the Wire Cutter Show is executive produced by me, Rosie Garin, and produced by Abigail Keiel. Engineering support from Mattie Maziello and Nick Pitman. Today's episode was mixed by Catherine Anderson. Original music by Dan Powell, Marian Losano, Alicia Eup, Rowan Nisto, Katherine Anderson, and Diane Wong. Cliff Levy is Wire Cutter's deputy publisher and general manager. Ben Fman is Wire Cutters editor and chief. And I'm Rosie Garin. Thank you for listening.
[Caitlyn McGary]: 简单来说,你们那篇关于如何以合适价位购买优秀笔记本电脑的指南,最后被缩成了一句话:你买不到。
Original English
[Caitlyn McGary]: Basically, how to buy a great laptop at a price point that would work for you. Your guide got shortened to you can't.
[Kimber Streams]: 你买不到。
Original English
[Kimber Streams]: You can't.