权力博弈与经济愿景
查尔斯: 杰罗姆·鲍威尔(J. Powell)展现了他内在的“詹妮弗·霍利迪”(Jennifer Holiday)一面,并表示他绝不会离开。当然,随之而来的反应是可预见的党派化,并没有太多人为此感到惋惜。我现在要请出 Fedgu.com 的首席分析师乔·王(Joe Wang)。乔,你知道的,鲍威尔说这事儿不是关于证词,他昨晚发表了一份声明,但他说的其实是关于特朗普总统无法如愿。对我来说,有趣的是,他也说了美联储是为公众服务的。听着,我认为美联储实际上是为大银行和那些富人服务的。你有什么看法?因为我认为现在是重塑美联储的绝佳时机。
Original English
Charles: J. Powell brought out his inner Jennifer Holiday and said there's no way that he's leaving. Uh the reaction though has been predictably partisan, not a lot of tears. I'm going to bring in Fed uh Fedgu.com principal Joe Wang. And uh you know Joe, uh so J. Pal says that that that this is not about the the testimony, right? He put out a statement and he spoke last night, but about President Trump not getting his way. What interesting what's interesting to me is he also said that the Fed serves the public. Listen, I believe the Fed serves big banks and the wealthy folks out there. Just your thoughts because I think this is a perfect time to remake the Federal Reserve.
乔·王: 嘿,查尔斯,谢谢你邀请我。我认为你说的很有道理。现在,当我审视数据时,我注意到的是,在过去的几十年里,劳动收入份额一直在持续下降。我们看到的是巨大的资产价格通胀,富人变得越来越富。所以,人们很容易认为美联储实际上是在为富人服务。很多人都有这种感觉。我认为这是一个大问题。但我也认为,当美联储主席说这事儿不是关于这个,这实际上是关于赶走我时,他是对的。所以,我看到的是,总统对如何管理国家有着非常不同的愿景。他想重新工业化,这不仅是为了帮助美国中部地区扭转过去几十年的趋势,也是因为大国竞争。所以,你可以看到他会去很远的地方争夺自然资源,利用南希(Nancy)提到的那些税收优惠政策,接管一些私营企业,所有这些事情都非常重要。而他重新工业化计划中最重要的一环是拥有更低的利率。所以我认为总统感到沮丧,因为美联储没有配合他,试图……
Original English
Joe Wang: Hey Charles, thanks for having me. And I think what you're saying makes a lot of sense. Now, when I look at the data, what stands out to me is that over the past few decades, labor's share of income has consistently declined. And what we see is tremendous asset price inflation where the rich get richer. So, it's easy to see that people could think that the Fed is really serving the wealthy. And many people feel that way. So that I think that is a big problem. But I think when the Fed chair is saying that this isn't about this, this is really about getting rid of me, I think he's right, too. So what I'm looking at is that the president is having a very different vision of how he wants to run the country. He wants to re-industrialize, not just to help middle America undo those trends of the past few decades, but also because of great power competition. So you can see him going out uh far away to seize natural resources, having those tax incentives that Nancy talked about, taking ownership of some private enterprises and all this stuff is really important. And one of the most important parts of his re-industrialization plan is to have lower interest rates. And so I think the president is frustrated that the Fed is not playing along to trying
查尔斯: ……基本上是重新工业化,让经济为公众更好地运作。所以我认为这就是总统正在做的,试图……
Original English
uh basically re-industrialize and make the economy work better for uh for the public. So I think this is what the president is doing trying to
查尔斯: ……毫无疑问,这就是特朗普总统试图做的。但同样毫无疑问的是,美联储(Fed)正在使用一种有时感觉过时的策略,甚至他们使用的数据也是如此。我是说,我读了你说的鲍威尔和美联储,他们比以往任何时候都强大,但并未 necessarily 做好工作。那么,关于某种形式的问责制呢?我是说真正的民主问责制,而不是这种每月两次、每年两次去国会山(Capitol Hill)的模式。这些立法者中的大多数根本不知道他们在说什么。他们听起来很蠢。他们提出自己的想法。他们试图让鲍威尔以这样或那样的方式表态。他们中没有人真正执行任何事情。我们如何执行问责制?
Original English
re there's no doubt that this is what President Trump is trying to do but there's also no doubt that the Fed is using a playbook that feels at times to be antiquated even the data that they use. I mean I read what you said that pal and and the Fed they're more powerful than ever before haven't necessarily done a good job. So what about the notion of some sort of accountability? I mean real democratic accountability not this twice a month twice a year you go on Capitol Hill most of these law uh one most of these lawmakers don't know what the hell they're talking about. They sound dumb. They're pitching their ideas. They're trying to get pal to to weigh in one way or the other. None of them are really enforcing anything. How do we enforce get accountability?
美联储职能演变与问责挑战
乔·王: 哦,那是一个非常棘手的问题。所以,美联储最初只是最后贷款人。然后它开始设定利率。现在,它是一个巨大的银行监管机构。现在,它正在用它的资产负债表做所有事情,成为一个活跃的市场参与者,购买数万亿美元的证券,它在做量化宽松(QE)。所以我认为,这是已经发生变化的事情。美联储比以前更具影响力和权力。所以我们应该有更多的民主问责制。这很难实现。就像你提到的,美联储所做的事情非常不透明。所以国会中的很多人并不真正密切关注它。一种方法可能是让财政部长(Treasury Secretary)坐在联邦公开市场委员会(MOMC),就像美联储成立初期那样。另一种可能性是,也许我们可以让美联储在其职责范围内稍微小一点,这样也许其中一些权力就会转移到别处。
Original English
Joe Wang: Oh, that's a really tough question. So, the Fed initially was just the lender of last resort. Then it began to set interest rates. Now, it's a huge bank regulator. Now, it's doing everything with its balance sheet, being an active market participant, buying trillions of dollars of securities, what it was doing QE. So, I think this is something that has changed. The Fed is a lot more influential and powerful than it was before. So we should have more democratic accountability. It's hard to get that. Like you mentioned, what the Fed does is very opaque. So a lot of people on Congress don't really follow it closely. One way is perhaps to have uh the Treasury Secretary sit on the MOMC as it was initially in the beginning of the Fed's founding. Another possibility is is maybe that we just make the Fed a little bit smaller in its mandate so that u maybe some of that power goes elsewhere.
查尔斯: 你知道,我从来不知道财政部会参与其中。这真是……你教了我一些东西。我很高兴你这么做了。你知道,每次我读你的文章,我都会学到东西,比如中央银行独立性这个概念,对吧?我是说,它不是一成不变的。至少在我们美联储成立之初,它不是这样的。我们这里有一张图表显示,它在世界各地几乎不存在。顺便说一句,我去过里士满美联储,他们有一篇关于这个的精彩论文。但现在找不到了。我们看看是怎么回事。但就是这种所谓的美联储独立性。它到底意味着什么?听起来不错。一些政客抓住这一点不放,但它到底意味着什么?
Original English
Charles: You know, I never knew that the Treasury set in. That's a that's you you taught me something. I'm I'm glad you did. You know, every time I read your work, I learn something like the notion of central bank independence, right? I mean, it it's not chisel and stone. At least it wasn't from day one when our Fed was around. And we got a chart here that shows that it barely exists anywhere in the world. By the way, I went to the Richmond Fed. They had a great paper on this. It's no longer available. We'll see what's up with that. But just this notion of of so-called Fed independence. What exactly does it mean? It sounds good. Some politicians grab on to, but what does it mean?
中央银行独立性的历史与质疑
乔·王: 中央银行独立性听起来非常神圣,但它实际上是一个非常新的概念。当我研究这个问题时,我惊讶地发现,例如,像英国这样的第一个世界国家直到 1997 年才拥有独立的中央银行,而在那之前,他们一切都很好。法国也类似。如果你放眼海外,你会看到中国的经济也做得很好。他们在那里做了很多好事。他们实际上并没有独立的中央银行。所以,我认为这种独立的中央银行的东西,很多都是教条。我们可以有一个拥有低通胀和运转良好的经济的国家,而且它永远为所有人服务,而不需要一个独立的中央银行。我们有其他方法来让通胀负责。例如,我们有选举。2024 年发生了什么?通胀很高。哈里斯副总统(Vice President Harris)输掉了选举。所以,我们并不真的需要一个中央银行来控制通胀。我认为这可能只是一个过时的想法。
Original English
Joe Wang: Central bank independence sounds really sacred but it's actually a really new idea. Uh when I was looking into this I was surprised to find out that the United Kingdom for example first world country did not have an independent central bank until 1997 and before then they were totally fine. Similar for France and if you look across the ocean you can see that China's economy is also doing well. They're doing a lot of good things there. They don't actually have an independent central bank. So this independent central bank thing I think a lot of it is just dogma. We can have a country that has low inflation and an economy that works forever for everyone and not an independent central bank. We have other ways to make uh inflation accountable. For example, we have elections. What happened in 2024? Uh inflation was high. Vice President Harris lost the election. So, we don't really need to have an central bank to get inflation under control. I think that's just maybe an outdated idea.
查尔斯: 是的。而且,说到选举,你知道,当特朗普……当……当……看起来,如果鲍威尔说他在为人民工作,那么人民选特朗普作为发言人,所以也许他们需要互动。但在我让你离开之前,只剩下 30 秒了。《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)有一篇文章建议,也许一些已经“监视”着退出(exits)的成员,他们甚至宣布了他们要离开,可能会决定留下,你知道,与杰罗姆·鲍威尔(J. Powell)形成一道“墙”,对吧?来对抗特朗普。当然,杰罗姆·鲍威尔(J. Powell)本人,在他任期结束后也可以留任。我身后的图表显示,这种情况以前只发生过两次,即一位美联储主席在任期结束后留任。我认为这种“兵变”会损害美联储的声誉。快速说说你的想法。
Original English
Charles: Yeah. And and speaking of elections, you know, when Trump when when when the it seems like if if Pal is saying he's working for the people, well, the people elected Trump to be the spokesperson, so maybe they need to interact. But before I let you go, just 30 seconds to go. Uh the Wall Street Journal had an article suggesting that maybe some members who had been spying the exits, they even announced that they were leaving might decide to stay, you know, to form a wall uh with with J. Pal, right? To push back on on on Trump. And of course, J. Pal himself, he could stay after his term expires. The chart behind me shows it's only really happened twice before that a Fed chair stayed after their term is over. I think such a mutiny would hurt the reputation of the Federal Reserve. Just quickly your thoughts on that.
乔·王: 我认为这是一个非常糟糕的主意。听着,我们……现在一切都在改变。我们有一个新的经济模式,总统就是因为这个模式被广大公众选出来的。这个经济模式的一部分是让美联储保持低利率,这样我们就可以实现产业回流。我们可以实现重新工业化。让这个人如此固执地站着,像是为“旧制度”(ancien regime)辩护。我认为这不符合民主原则。我希望他不要这样做。我认为最终总统会获胜。我认为公众支持他。我认为国会中也有很多人支持他。所以,我希望……你知道,那里不会再有什么戏剧性事件了,那会分散人们对美国公众真正紧迫问题的注意力。
Original English
Joe Wang: I think it's a really bad idea. Listen, we everything is changing right now. We have a new economic model that the president was elected by the broader public to do and part of that money model is for the Fed to keep interest rates low so that we can have a reshoring. We could have re-industrialization. having this one man just kind of stubbornly stand there kind of defend the Ansean regime. I I don't think that that accords with democratic principles. I hope he doesn't do that. I think ultimately the president will prevail. I think the public is with him. I think a lot of Congress is with him as well. So I hope that uh you know there isn't any more drama there that would that would distract from what are really pressing problems for the American public.
查尔斯: 我也希望不会,但如果真有,乔,我很高兴我们可以依靠你。太棒了。非常感谢你。就像我说的,我总是从你身上学到东西。一直如此。非常感谢。
Original English
Charles: You know, I hope there's not either, but if there is, Joe, I'm glad we can count on you. Great stuff. Thank you so much. Like I said, I always learn from you. Always. Thanks a lot.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
公司/组织: Federal Reserve