Alphabet总裁露丝·波拉特:AI竞赛、量子计算与谷歌创新文化 Norges Bank Investment Management 2025-03-12

引言:Alphabet总裁谈科技前沿

挪威主权财富基金(Norges Bank Investment Management)的首席执行官尼古拉·坦根(Nicola Tangan)在“In Good Company”播客中,邀请了Alphabet(Alphabet: 谷歌的母公司)总裁兼首席投资官露丝·波拉特(Ruth Porat)进行访谈。

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I'm Nicola Tangan, the CEO of the Norwegian SN wealth fund, and today I'm in really good company because I'm here with Ruth Porat, the president and chief investment officer of Alphabet, which is the parent company of Google.

谷歌当然无需介绍,但Alphabet除了谷歌之外,还生产自动驾驶汽车、**AI芯片**(AI chips: 专门用于人工智能计算的硬件),并拥有YouTube等众多业务。
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Now, of course, Google needs no introduction, but Alphabet, in addition, also makes self-driving cars, AI chips, it owns YouTube, and many more things.

挪威主权财富基金持有Alphabet公司1.3%的股份,总价值约300亿美元。
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And we own 1.3% of the company, totaling roughly $30 billion.

在访谈中,波拉特女士就“谁将赢得AI竞赛”这一问题发表了看法。
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So, big welcome, Ruth, it's great to be with you, thank you. Who is going to win the AI race?

谷歌在AI竞赛中的优势与策略

波拉特女士表示,谷歌在AI领域拥有非常强大的地位,这得益于多方面的原因。

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Well, we feel we're in a really strong position for a number of reasons.

谷歌在AI方面的投入历史悠久,始于多年前,并且目前采取了一种高度差异化的**全栈式方法**(full-stack approach: 指在技术开发中,覆盖从底层硬件到上层应用的所有环节)。
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I think when you look at the history of Google focused on AI, we started many, many years ago, and at this point, we have a very differentiated approach, which starts with the extraordinary team we have.

这种方法的核心是其卓越的团队,由最近获得诺贝尔奖的**德米斯·哈萨比斯**(Demis Hassabis: Google DeepMind的联合创始人兼CEO,因在蛋白质结构预测方面的工作而获奖)领导。
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led by Demis Hassabis, who obviously just won the Nobel Prize.

这体现了其模型(如**Gemini**:谷歌开发的多模态大型语言模型)的强大实力,以及在芯片方面(如**TPU**:Tensor Processing Unit,谷歌为机器学习工作负载设计的专用AI加速器)的投入。
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That goes to the strength of the models, you look at what we're doing on chips with our TPUs.

谷歌的AI技术已广泛应用于其各个平台,惠及数十亿用户。
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And then we're already really using it across our various platforms, so billions of people are benefiting from AI.

她认为,这种全栈式方法是谷歌的重要优势。
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So this full-stack approach, we think, is an important element.

同时,她也对整个行业广泛的创新感到兴奋,认为全球有机会通过这些创新实现巨大的突破。
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That being said, what's exciting to see is how much innovation there is broadly, and so what we're looking at is the opportunity, I think collectively globally, to have an unlock from the upside given the innovation that we're seeing, not just at Google, but at other places.

当被问及AI竞赛的关键因素是人才、资金、数据还是芯片时,波拉特女士再次强调了谷歌从人才和模型到平台和芯片的全栈式方法

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So is it now a matter of who's got the best people or the most money or the best data or the best chips, what is it, what is it about? Well, the reason I started with what we're really proud of, our full-stack approach from talent and models to the platforms and chips, is it really is taking this full-stack approach.

她还特别提到了对创新的持续专注和推动。
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And I think very importantly, this intense focus on innovation and continuing to push forth.

她回忆起德米斯·哈萨比斯获得诺贝尔奖时被问及为何踏上AI之旅,他回答说,他的动力是解决人类面临的最棘手、看似无法解决的问题。
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You know, one of the things that really struck me when Demis was awarded the Nobel Prize this last fall, and he was asked what was it that really started him on this journey, and he said what motivates him is to take on the most intractable, what were thought to be the most intractable problems facing humanity.

波拉特女士认为,这种精神是推动AI发展并产生最大影响的另一个重要因素。
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And I think that ethos is another really important element of how one continues to drive forth and have the biggest impact with AI.

生成式AI的商业化潜力

关于生成式AI(Generative AI: 能够生成文本、图像或其他媒体内容的人工智能)是否能像搜索一样实现商业化的问题,波拉特女士认为,生成式AI正在持续提升谷歌及其他公司在广泛机会中提供内容的质量。

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Do you think generative AI can be monetized the same way as search is? I think generative AI is continuing to enable us and others to expand kind of the quality of what is being delivered across a wide set of opportunities.

她举了两个例子:首先是搜索,这是谷歌的核心业务,多年来一直在不断演进。
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So just to give you two examples, you know, I'm often asked where do we, where are we investing extensively, and probably not surprisingly, you know this well, given how close you are to all that we've been doing, but search remains so core to who we are, and we've evolved search meaningfully over the years.

谷歌正将生成式AI应用于搜索体验,发现它能拓展查询类型,带来更深入、更丰富的互动。
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And we're continuing to apply generative AI to what is that experience that one has when you search, and what we're finding is that it opens the types of queries that are being explored, it goes for a deeper, richer engagement, so that's one area.

其次是企业端,AI正在帮助企业和公共部门转型业务,无论是在客户互动、效率提升、风险分析还是与选民沟通方面,都提供了商业化的机会。
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The other area that's really important is what we're seeing on the enterprise side, and the ability to help companies and the public sector transform their businesses and their approach, whether it's engaging with customers or on the efficiency side or on risk analytics or with constituents, each of those provides opportunity for monetization.

创新与质量:谷歌AI发展之道

当被问及为何谷歌在AI模型方面似乎起步较慢,但最新的Gemini模型表现出色时,波拉特女士解释说,谷歌搜索数十年来一直以卓越的质量著称,这是全球用户对谷歌的期望。

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Some of your competitors say that you were a bit slow out of the box when it came to AI models, but your latest Gemini is phenomenal, so what happened here? Well, Google search for decades has really stood for extraordinary quality.

谷歌在生成式AI早期阶段,内部非常关注“**幻觉**”(hallucination: 指AI生成虚假或不准确信息的问题)的风险。
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It's what everybody around the globe expects of us when you go to Google, quality answer very rapidly surfaced for you in the most potent way, and one of the very important questions for us, Sundar talked about this in the early days of generative AI, internally we were all talking about the risk of hallucination.

她举例说,如果半夜孩子生病,需要查询三岁孩子泰诺(Tylenol)的用量,就不能有任何误差。
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And that term now is very well known quite broadly, and one of the concerns is if you in the middle of the night wake up, your child is sick, you want to figure out how much Tylenol to give to a three-year-old, there can be no margin for error.

这正是谷歌品牌所代表的,因此,在应用生成式AI时,必须确保其质量与谷歌一贯的期望相符。
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Yeah, that's what our brand stands for, and so it's very important to us to make sure that as we were evolving and applying generative AI, we did it in a way that was consistent with the quality that's expected appropriately from Google.

她指出,谷歌在模型开发和外部推广方面持续保持强劲势头,例如通过**AI概览**(AI Overviews: 谷歌搜索结果中由AI生成的摘要)等功能,提供类似“AI驾驶舱”的体验。
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And I appreciate your question because what you've seen is the really ongoing momentum in models and introducing models more broadly externally, what we've done with, for example, AI Overviews, where when you search, you'll get this kind of an AI cockpit is the way I like to think about it.

谷歌对2024年及2025年的发展势头充满期待。
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You're seeing more and things like a model advancement that can be applied in other applications, and so we're excited about the momentum that people have seen through 2024 and what is ahead in 2025.

智能体AI与增强智能

波拉特女士提到了谷歌最新的模型,称之为“智能体领域”(agentic area: 指AI能够作为代理人,自主执行任务和行动的领域)的模型。

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Talking a you told the late you call the latest model for um the model for the agentic area what what does that mean or what what do you put in that.

她解释说,这指的是AI如何能真正成为我们的代理人,代表我们工作,帮助我们完成行政任务,从而解放我们去做其他事情,例如预订、研究,甚至在科学领域进行基础探究。
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So that's one area that I know Sundar and Demis and the team are really excited about, which is how can AI actually be an agent working on our behalf, how can it help you do some of the administrative tasks that are going to make your life easier and actually free you up to do something else, book a reservation for you, research something for you, how can it even be applied, for example, in science to do some of the basic inquiries, so set it out to do something to work on your behalf.

她认为,AI可以作为一种“**增强智能**”(augmented intelligence: 指AI辅助人类,而非取代人类智能,以提升人类能力和效率),而不是“人工智能”(artificial intelligence)。
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I think one of the most important things for all of us is that AI can really be an assist, it can be operating leverage for every one of us, you when I started my career on Wall Street, how was it as you were moving from big computers to laptops to phone, this becomes operating leverage if appropriately applied, and so what one scientist once said to me that they view this as augmented intelligence, not artificial intelligence, and wish that had been the word that was used, that's what it is for each one of us.

她强调,我们不会被AI取代,但可能会被那些善用AI以获得“运营杠杆”的人取代。
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And I think what's really important is to understand that in fact it's not that we will be replaced by AI in our roles, but we can be replaced by someone who's using AI, who's getting that operating leverage if we're not.

因此,每个人都应该开始尝试和使用AI,以便在学习过程中不断进步。
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And so it's so important for people to just start experimenting, just start playing so that you're on that learning journey.

谷歌的AI芯片与开源策略

谷歌自主研发TPU芯片,并与英伟达(Nvidia: 全球领先的GPU制造商)紧密合作,同时使用GPU(GPU: Graphics Processing Unit,图形处理器,也广泛用于AI计算)。

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Now you make your own AI chips, the TPUs, why could you explain just how they are different from other chips and why why you do this? Well, we work very closely with Nvidia, they're a strong partner of ours, so we use both GPUs and TPUs.

多年前,谷歌团队开始开发TPU,以满足特定的性能需求,尤其是在模型训练方面。
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And many years ago, the team started on this journey of developing our own chips, TPUs, to address some of the specific requirements that we felt we needed, and what we found is that we continue to have the type of performance that we're looking for in particular in training.

随着TPU的不断进步,谷歌在能源效率方面也取得了显著提升,带来了成本和环境效益。
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And as we've advanced the TPUs, what we're seeing is we're continuing to drive greater efficiency in all elements of energy requirements with TPUs, so they there's a cost benefit for us and and impact benefit, and so we're using both in the fleet.

关于开源模型(open-source models: 代码和数据公开可用的AI模型)与闭源模型的看法,波拉特女士指出,开源一直是谷歌的核心理念,从Android(Android: 谷歌开发的移动操作系统)到Transformer论文(Transformer paper: 谷歌研究人员提出的开创性神经网络架构,是许多现代大型语言模型的基础),都体现了这一点。

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Talking about various versions of things, so now we've had deep seek um being launched which is uh an open-source model uh now just how do you look at open versus closed-source models now? So open source has been core to Google really for since inception, if you think about something like Android, which is such an important operating system globally, it reflects who we are when you think about the Transformer paper, which has been so critical for anybody who's thinking about how do you build in this AI world, like what's the next step to the next iteration.

她表示,开源对谷歌非常重要。
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So open source has been important to us.

但同时,AI是一项强大的技术,因此谷歌也在寻求如何最大化其优势,同时建立适当的**防护措施**(guard rails: 限制系统行为以确保安全和负责任使用的机制)和控制,以确保技术被安全和负责任地使用。
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At the same time, this is a really powerful technology, and so what we're looking at is how does one maximize upside, but have the appropriate guard rails and controls over certain elements of it to ensure that you're protecting how it's used and where it's used, and getting that balance right will continue to be very important for all of us.

AI的巨大潜力:经济、科学与医疗

波拉特女士个人对AI的应用感到兴奋,主要集中在四个领域。

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What are you personally most excited about in terms of usage? I mean, you you talked about um um medicine, Alpha fold and so on, you you personally what do you what do you feel more strongly about? Oh, I so when we look at at AI, I think there are four primary areas that are really exciting.

首先是**经济效益**:全球估计在未来十年内,AI有望为全球GDP增加20万亿美元,如果能得到适当的执行和行业采纳,这将对社会产生巨大益处。
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Um, first is the economic upside, you know, it globally the estimates are there can be 20 trillion added to GDP in the next decade, again, if appropriately executed, if adopted across industry, when you think about the benefit to society, if in fact we have anything close to that economic uplift, I get excited about it.

其次是**科学突破**:德米斯·哈萨比斯和**约翰·詹珀**(John Jumper: Google DeepMind科学家,与哈萨比斯共同因AlphaFold项目获得诺贝尔奖)因**AlphaFold**(AlphaFold: Google DeepMind开发的人工智能系统,用于预测蛋白质三维结构)项目获得诺贝尔奖,该项目被认为是药物发现领域最伟大的贡献。
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Very excited about the breakthroughs in science, what Demis Hassabis and John Jumper awarded the Nobel this past fall, you know, that was for something called AlphaFold, which you're familiar with, which has been described as the greatest contribution to drug discovery that is exciting.

第三是AI在**医疗保健和教育**领域的实际应用,这些都令人非常兴奋。
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Then just even sitting here today, the practical applications of AI in health care, in education are really exciting, um, so I would put those at the top of the list.

波拉特女士分享了她个人与乳腺癌抗争的经历,以及谷歌AI在医疗领域的突破。

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I am completely in awe of what we're able to do with healthcare, and you because you had you had breast cancer, right? Exactly, had breast cancer twice actually.

谷歌的工程师们开发了一项技术,能够早期诊断**转移性乳腺癌**(metastatic breast cancer: 癌细胞扩散到身体其他部位的乳腺癌)。
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And Google, the amazing engineers, identified the opportunity to diagnose early-stage metastatic breast cancer.

在测试中,这项技术在8万个样本中多发现了20%的癌症病例,且没有假阳性。
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And what's extraordinary is in the testing of it, they found that relative to the 80,000 sample set, they found 20% more cases, more incidences of cancer, and no false positives.

早期诊断对于生存率和治疗方案至关重要。
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And as we all know, the difference between survival or not, or a really difficult course of treatment at stage four versus two is really meaningful.

这项技术能够让全球任何医生都能以最高水平进行诊断,因为它提供了“增强智能”的辅助。
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And so the ability, I still have a wow moment with that, that we with AI and with breakthroughs like that can give people the opportunity for the early diagnosis that's needed, and what's really important in discussing this with my oncologist, he said what it does is it enables any doctor anywhere across the US, around the globe, to be operating at the highest level because they have this this assist, this augmented intelligence, to me that becomes an extraordinary wow moment when you think about what we can do.

除了乳腺癌,谷歌还在肺癌和**糖尿病视网膜病变**(diabetic retinopathy: 糖尿病引起的视网膜损伤,可能导致失明)的早期诊断方面取得了进展。
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And we're doing it not just in breast cancer, there's early diagnosis in lung cancer, in something called diabetic retinopathy, which is blindness from diabetes, and in that instance, early detection leads to early intervention that's manageable.

前瞻技术:量子计算与自动驾驶

波拉特女士谈到了谷歌在量子计算(Quantum Computing: 利用量子力学原理进行计算的新型计算范式)领域的进展,包括其Willow量子芯片(Willow Quantum chip: 谷歌开发的量子处理器)。

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Now talking about something uh um slightly different, you uh before the holiday season sent shocks waves through the world with your Willow Quantum chip, so why why is that such a leap forward? So we've been working on Quantum AI, Quantum Computing for quite some time, uh well over I think a decade at this point, uh and what's really exciting is the computational capabilities with Quantum.

Willow芯片能在不到5分钟内完成一项计算,而这在目前全球最好的超级计算机上需要10的24次方年(即**10的24次方年**,septillion years: 一个巨大的数字,表示1后面有24个零)。
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So the Willow chip is able to um to handle a computation in less than 5 minutes that previously on the best supercomputers on the planet today would take 10 septillion years, which even I had to Google, it's it's 24 zeros on the back of it.

这种计算能力的飞跃,无论是在生物学还是其他领域,都意味着能够更深入地观察和分析,其影响是深远而令人兴奋的。
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So what that means in terms of the ability to see and analyze more, whether it's in biology or other areas, is exciting and profound, and so we see this as another path that we will continue to execute against.

她表示,虽然目前尚不清楚何时能实现商业化,但量子计算正越来越接近实际应用。
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When do you think this will be commercial? Yeah, that's a great question, not surprisingly, I ask that question all the time as well, and have been for some time, you know, I think it's there's still a number of years ahead, it's starting to to point to different applications that we're excited about, but whether we're three years, five years, you know, hard to say, uh, but it's it's getting closer since I started asking that question.

谷歌的自动驾驶出租车公司Waymo(Waymo: Alphabet旗下的自动驾驶技术公司)每周提供20万次付费乘车服务。

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And other things where you are where you are strong is a self uh self-driving taxi company, now I'm not sure what the latest number is in terms of rides per week, where where are you now? It's uh 200,000 rides paid rides.

Waymo的初衷是为了提高驾驶安全性,因为AI驾驶员不会疲劳、分心,始终专注于道路,通过摄像头传感器提升安全性,从而挽救生命。
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Well, I think if I just step back and talk a bit about Waymo, because we are very excited about it, you know, we started on that journey more than a decade ago as well, and the original thesis is that more than a million people die on the road every year in accidents, and if AI can help improve the safety of driving because our Waymo self-driver, the AI, does not get tired, it does not get distracted, it you know, it stays focused on the road, you've got camera sensors everywhere, we can improve safety, we can help save lives, and that was a really exciting motivator for the team.

Waymo目前已在旧金山、洛杉矶、凤凰城和奥斯汀等地推出,并正在扩展,甚至在日本进行试点。
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We've been rolling it out, it's been extraordinary to see the takeup, it's now one of the top attractions in San Francisco if anyone's out this way, but we're also in LA, in Phoenix, and Austin, and expanding, and we're going to continue to expand because you see both the um the reaction to it when people get in, some people are anxious about it at first, and then within literally under a minute, they see they they just go right into to whatever it is they wanted to be doing, there's a safety element around it, uh, so we think it'll continue to be rolled out, uh, we're doing a pilot in Japan right now, and there's an opportunity we think to help save lives, and are excited about doing that.

至于未来十年谁会拥有汽车,波拉特女士认为现在下结论还为时过早。
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So 10 years from now, who is going to own a car? You know, I think it's too early to call.

她指出,Waymo目前主要专注于**自动驾驶出租车**(Robo-taxis: 无人驾驶的共享出租车),但这项技术未来也可能应用于私人拥有的汽车,提供辅助驾驶功能。
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The other is that Waymo is primarily now focused on what are these Robo-taxis, as you described it, but it's it's reasonable to assume that this capability, this extraordinary technology, can also be an assist with um with cars that are owned, and so there are a lot of execution paths which enable you, me, others to decide how they actually want to get around.

Alphabet的资本配置与创新引擎

作为首席投资官,波拉特女士管理着约1000亿美元的资金。

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Now you're also the chief investment officer, and you are uh in a very fortunate position in that you are sitting on roughly hundred billion dollars, and you have all these interesting areas just how do you allocate capital between them?

她认为,资本配置的核心要素是持续为长期发展进行积极投资,否则就会“自掘坟墓”。
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So capital allocation, like I think one of the core elements in capital allocation is that you need to ensure that you're continuing to invest aggressively for the long run, um, if you don't invest for the long run, you're sewing the seeds of your own destruction, and that's a lesson I've seen throughout my career over and over.

这一直是谷歌自成立以来的核心理念。
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And so very important, it's been core to the ethos obviously of this company since inception.

早年谷歌曾有一个“70%核心业务、20%相邻业务、10%登月项目”的口号,虽然现在有所演变,但为长期增长积极投资的理念依然是核心。
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The early days there was a a a kind of a mantra which is 70 in your core, 20% adjacent, 10% moonshots, and that's evolved over time, but this core sense of you've got to continue to invest aggressively for the long run remains core to who we are.

鉴于AI在消费和企业端的巨大机遇,谷歌正在大力投资。
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And we're at such an exciting time in history given the opportunity with AI, you know, both on the consumer side, on the enterprise side, so we're certainly making investments there.

她还提到,各国元首都在积极推动数字化转型,谷歌也致力于在全球范围内投资技术基础设施(数据中心、海底电缆),并帮助各国加速数字化转型。
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I end up spending a lot of my time globally because what is really key is every head of state is saying the same type of thing, which is I want to be a part of this digital transformation, it is key for all the reasons that we've already talked about, and so what we spend time looking at is as we're continuing to invest in our technical infrastructure globally, in other words, data centers, subsea cables, how do we link up the world, the the the opportunity is how do we engage more deeply, how what work are we doing on their behalf to help accelerate their digital transformation, how do we engage on the public side, and so there's a really global view to this.

谷歌内部有一个“登月工厂”(Moonshot Factory: 指谷歌内部的X部门,专注于开发具有突破性潜力的创新项目),即X部门(X: Alphabet旗下的研发部门,专注于“登月项目”)。

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Now you you have this moonshot Factory in house, what are the type of things you're working on there? So the moonshot factory as it was lovingly named years ago, um uh is the core one of the core areas within other bets, it's called X.

**Waymo**就是从X部门孵化出来,并成为独立公司的一个例子。
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And out of X came for example, Waymo, it was incubated in X and then got moved out to become an independent company.

X部门还孵化了**Wing**(Wing: Alphabet旗下的无人机送货服务公司),目前正与沃尔玛(Walmart)合作,取得了令人兴奋的成果。
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They've also worked on for example, Wing or incubated Wing, which is our drone business, excited about Wing, they're doing work as an example with Walmart, and we're seeing uh really exciting results there and see the upside.

另一个正在孵化的项目是**Intrinsic**(Intrinsic: Alphabet旗下的机器人软件公司),一个机器人操作系统。
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They're also incub they've been incubating and you'll hear more about a company called Intrinsic, which is a robotics um operating system.

X部门的一个重要理念是“快速淘汰”,以便将资源集中在最有前景的领域。
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I think one of the very important elements there is that when um they are approaching any incubation, their mindset is obviously you can't incubate everything and have it work well, and so kill things fast in order to move into the areas that are the most promising.

构建全球数字基础设施与韧性

波拉特女士表示,谷歌通过投资海底电缆(subsea cables: 铺设在海底用于传输互联网数据和通信的电缆)和更广泛的技术基础设施(technical infrastructure: 包括数据中心、网络等支撑技术运行的物理和软件系统),来增强公司的韧性。

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Now you mentioned um uh sub cables, the fact that you also do subsy cables and so on, does it make you more resilient you think as a tech company? I think there are a lot of elements that build resilience, and one of the are one of the important areas is continuing to invest in subsea cables, but it's also the what we call technical infrastructure more broadly, so it's data center resilience, data center redundancy so that you can actually be positioned to serve customers when and where needed, and in the event of something that happens, and things unfortunately always seem to happen around the world, you've got the resilience needed to continue to operate at a high level.

这包括数据中心的韧性和冗余,以及强大的**网络安全防御**(cybersecurity defenses: 保护计算机系统和网络免受数字攻击的措施),例如**零信任方法**(zero-trust approach: 一种安全模型,要求所有用户和设备在访问资源前都必须经过严格验证,即使在网络内部)。
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It's our cybersecurity defenses, one of the things I've learned in my career is is much easier to prevent than to fix a problem, and so building in this strength upfront is key, and it's technical infrastructure, I can I'm happy to talk more about cables because really proud of the network we have globally, but it's the other elements like a zero-trust approach on cybersecurity so that you're fortifying defenses in a world that is continuing to become ever more challenging.

她强调,预防胜于治疗,提前构建防御至关重要。
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One of the things I've learned in my career is is much easier to prevent than to fix a problem, and so building in this strength upfront is key.

面对日益严峻的网络攻击和海底电缆受损等挑战,谷歌采取“保持偏执”的态度,并构建韧性。

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And how do you look at these additional challenges? I mean, we are seeing attacks on subsy cables, we are seeing of course accelerating cyber attacks, how do you how do you assess the state of the world? Uh, it's better to remain paranoid, which we do, and build in resilience as you said.

例如,在建设海底电缆网络时,谷歌会构建主干线(如从非洲到澳大利亚),并在沿途设置节点,这不仅增加了电缆本身的韧性,还能帮助点亮沿途的岛屿国家。
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And so when we're looking at our subsea cable network, we uh do build in resilience to have alternate approaches, we're building globally, we've been building now in the southern hemisphere as well, um, when we build cables as an example, one of the things that has multiple benefits is we will build what I will call a trunk from say Africa to Australia, and then we will have it in chunks with nodes along the way that builds in a resilience for the cable itself, but it also provides something else that we're really proud of, it provides the ability off of a node to light up island nations along the way, oftentimes working with governments that say we want to help light up a nation which maybe Google otherwise wouldn't.

她自豪地提到,谷歌曾点亮斐济(Fiji),这为斐济人民带来了巨大的经济机会,因为全球仍有三分之一的人口未能上网。
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So as an example, one of the ones I'm really proud of is when we lit up Fiji, uh, and I was talking about this at the Asia Pacific economic um conference, and we had the prime minister of Fiji happen to be in the room, I said we lit up Fiji, and his comment was it was a gift to everyone in Fiji because what that does is link them to all the opportunities that come otherwise from being having access, and what's really important to remember is a third of the globe still is not online, still is not connected, so this gives us that added ability to provide something that as he described is an economic opportunity for Fiji for generations to come.

投资回报与资本支出效率

关于科技公司是否正在接受较低的投资回报,波拉特女士认为,目前大家都在关注理论上的经济增长潜力,如果这些潜力得以实现,将带来可观的回报。

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With all um these tech companies chasing the opportunities here, do you think tech companies are now accepting lower returns for their investments? Well, I think that at this point what we're all looking at is this theoretical economic upside, which assuming it materializes creates the opportunity for attractive returns, and I think there's a self-calibrating element to the pace of investment that comes from that thesis.

她重申,全球理论经济增长潜力高达20万亿美元,仅美国就有4万亿美元。
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Now when I said you know 20 trillion theoretical economic upside globally, it's four trillion in the US alone.

要实现这一目标,不仅仅是使用聊天机器人,而是要彻底重新思考业务的每个环节,包括客户互动、运营效率和风险分析。
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What is it require to get that? You know, it's not applying using chat Bots, it's actually radically rethinking every element of your business, it's how do you interact with with customers to drive more revenue, it's what are operating efficiencies in the business, it's what are risk analytics, thinking front to back on your operating processes because this gives you an opportunity to approach them differently, that's what leads to that the economic upside which then drives the returns.

同时,谷歌也致力于提高**资本支出**(capex: Capital Expenditure,资本性支出,指用于购买、改进或延长固定资产寿命的支出)的效率。
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And so I think that uh it's we've each got to make sure that we're we're calibrating as we go regarding the upside, and then the other part to your question about returns that we're very focused on and others are as well, is how do you increase the efficiency of that denominator, all the capex that it's being invested.

**桑达尔·皮查伊**(Sundar Pichai: 谷歌及Alphabet的首席执行官)曾提到模型效率的显著提升,以及TPU的改进。
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And so we're approaching that in a number of ways, Sundar talked about it, the meaningful improvements in model efficiency, the meaningful improvements you've already asked about in TPUs.

谷歌最新的**Trillium芯片**(Trillium chip: 谷歌最新一代的TPU芯片)比上一代效率提高了约67%。
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Our Trillium chip, our most recent chip, is about 67% more efficient than the prior one, so we're continuing to drive efficiency in the capex utilization while also trying to help unlock monetization upside.

谷歌的创新文化与领导力

创新一直是谷歌文化的核心。

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Now related to this is is the corpor culture and how you structure innovation, is there a particular way that you structure innovation at Google? It's been such a core part of who we are, I think the driver of everything that we do.

谷歌拥有卓越的研究团队,例如由德米斯·哈萨比斯领导的**Google DeepMind**(Google DeepMind: Alphabet旗下的AI研究公司)。
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We have an extraordinary research team, as an example, everything that's being done in Google DeepMind, the Demis is leading.

此外,谷歌早期曾有**Google Labs**(Google Labs: 谷歌的一个实验性产品孵化部门),桑达尔·皮查伊几年前重新启动了它,并从中诞生了许多令人兴奋的产品,例如**NotebookLM**(NotebookLM: 谷歌开发的一款AI笔记工具,可将用户自己的内容转化为可交互的AI助手)。
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And then on top of that, we have efforts, I think more to your question, for example, in the early days of Google, there was something called Google Labs, small, scrappy teams and told go find something, and Sundar reconstituted that a couple of years ago, and you've seen already a number of really exciting things come out of a small, scrappy, focused, empowered team, so for example, hopefully you and others listening have used NotebookLM.

NotebookLM能够将用户的演讲稿、感兴趣的内容等转化为AI播客,使其更易于理解。
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It's one of my favorite, it's the opportunity to take your own your content, speeches you're interested in, anything you're interested in, ingested into NotebookLM, it can give you some of the information that you need, but you can also listen to it as an AI podcast that can make things sort of more accessible, maybe within an enterprise or I've talked to some people in the public sector, and their wow moment was, wow, you mean I can take all these things that we publish that people probably don't read and make it easier for them to ingest the information, the answer is yes.

另一个例子是**Google Lens**(Google Lens: 谷歌的图像识别技术,可通过手机摄像头识别物体并提供相关信息),每月有200亿次搜索使用摄像头。
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A little further back, this was years ago actually, but we now have 20 billion searches a month using your camera with Google Lens, if I want your shirt, you know, I can take a photo of it and then I can find where to buy it and priced and everything else, or I can I do with other things like art, who's that artist, I still get an ohow moment from that.

波拉特女士认为,谷歌的独特之处在于其工作方式,例如使用Google Docs进行协作,以及鼓励员工自发聚集和交流思想。

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When I first got here, I saw how different it was in the way we worked, and granted I was coming from a financial institution, not another tech company, but it's literally embedded in the technology that we use, so it just starts right from square one with Google Docs, collaborative docs, every every way we're constantly interacting, and it just adds a velocity to the work that you do.

她强调,谷歌的**创始人**(Larry Page和Sergey Brin)在公司成立之初就强调“偶然发现”(serendipity)和从中获得的乐趣。
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You just see people constantly coming together in ways that are exactly what the founders talked about at inception, it's about serendipity and the joy that comes from that.

谷歌的员工都怀揣着“对人类产生最大影响”的使命感。
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But I think the core point is it's the ethos from the people come in, there's a high bar that's set, we want to make the maximum difference to humanity, that's what we talk about a lot.

她再次引用德米斯·哈萨比斯的故事,他曾被问及预测所有蛋白质结构是否可能,他的回答是“为什么不呢?”这种“为什么不”的精神是谷歌文化的重要组成部分。
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I'll give you one more Demis story, um, when he was embarking on AlphaFold and the concept of predicting the protein structure for every protein known to humanity, previously it would take a year or two just to do one, he wanted to do all 200 million, it was one of the grand challenges that had been out there for a long time, and some scientists said how could this be possible, and his answer was why not, and that ethos that why not is a large part of how I answer your question, and you hear it in meetings, it's like why not take it on.

波拉特女士还提到谷歌文化中的谦逊(humility),每年都有一种“这可能是最后一个伟大年份”的感觉,这种谦逊激励着员工不断超越自我,寻求创新。

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There's an incredible humility here, a sense every year that this is the last great year, and that started the moment I got here, and I remember as I was listening to the stories like, well, they're all these headwinds, they're always headwinds, and so that humility I think inspires people to push higher on for themselves and their team and try and figure out what else can we do.

这种谦逊与创新精神相结合,是谷歌成功的关键。
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And that's been an ethos, I think, search for innovation coupled with humility.

她认为,这种文化始于高层领导,例如桑达尔·皮查伊所展现的正直和道德。
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How do you install humility in an organization? It starts from the tone from the top, I mean, if you look at Sundar as a leader, he brings this um integrity and ethos about him, and that's the expectation uh I think for the entire team.

**谢尔盖·布林**(Sergey Brin: 谷歌联合创始人)曾表示,现在是计算机科学最激动人心的时刻,我们以前只是触及了表面。
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Do you think it makes a difference that the founders are still around? Well, I think it's been, you know, Sergey in particular, um, at the couple years ago, as the team was pushing forth on on Gemini, uh, was very engaged and back in uh sitting with them, and he made a comment that this is the most exciting time in computer science that we had only just scratched the surface previously, and when you think Google's done pretty well, like when he first said that to me, I got chills because I think about how much has been accomplished by Google, but that level of excitement and the magic of what's to come, you know, has to be infectious um for every one.

这种兴奋感和对未来的憧憬具有感染力。
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And so it's been yeah, it's been a joy.

谷歌的员工充满热情,因为他们对自己的工作充满乐趣。
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People are working because they're getting a real charge out of what they're doing, and you don't need to tell you or me how many hours to work, you know, there's a joy that comes from it.

谷歌鼓励员工每周至少三天到办公室工作,团队可以自行决定如何实现最大化的生产力和进步。
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You know, at at Google, we're still um of the view that the way we get the best outcome is we want people in three days or more a week, and teams can figure out what works best for them to get maximum kind of maximum productivity, progress.

在招聘方面,谷歌寻找非常聪明的人才,并强调模式识别、特定领域专业知识、高绩效和创造力。
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Who do you hire? Really smart people, and uh it's a it remains a a rigorous process, the number of applicants remains you know daunting, um I think that depending on the area, you know, there's there's a mix of um I you know what I would say what I would look for is a mix of those people who um come with what I will call pattern recognition, the experience that gives you a sense that of predicting what's going to come from here or very specific domain expertise, but then evidence uh high performance and creativity, pushing themselves, achieving achieving remarkable things along the way.

从金融危机中汲取经验,应对未来挑战

在加入谷歌之前,波拉特女士曾在摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley: 一家全球领先的金融服务公司)工作,并亲身经历了金融危机。

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Talking of which, uh Ruth, you've uh achieved remarkable things, uh and you worked in Morgan Stanley before you before you joined Google, uh and you were there during the financial crisis, and uh uh did a did an incredible job, what did you what did you learn from the financial crisis because you were really involved at the very top?

当时她负责管理**金融机构集团**(Financial Institutions Group: 投资银行中负责与银行、保险公司和资产管理公司等金融机构打交道的部门),并在美国财政部协助处理了**房利美**(Fannie Mae: 美国联邦国民抵押贷款协会)和**房地美**(Freddie Mac: 美国联邦住房抵押贷款公司)的住房危机,以及**AIG**(AIG: American International Group,美国国际集团,一家大型保险和金融服务公司)危机。
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Yeah, I learned a I learned a lot at the the time I was running the Financial Institutions Group, which meant responsible for banks, insurance companies, asset management, I was on the investment banking side, and one of the most privileged times in my career is when Secretary Hank Paulson, Secretary of the Treasury, said he wanted a team to basically be seconded down um at US Treasury, and initially we went I went down in in July of '08 to focus on the housing crisis, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and to try and understand understand and diagnose what could be a trigger for what we would call a run on the bank, run on on agencies, so we went through Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac with him, and then I led the group that went um through the AIG crisis as well, and then onward.

她从中吸取了几个重要教训:
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And there were a lot of really important lessons that came out of it.

1. **提前识别并保护最脆弱的环节**:对于金融机构来说,这是**流动性**(liquidity: 资产转换为现金的难易程度)。在危机发生前,可以采取措施保护流动性,但在危机爆发时则为时已晚。
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The first most the most important lesson from the crisis is to identify your greatest source of vulnerability ahead of time and protect against it, so for financial institutions that would be liquidity, without liquidity, nothing you couldn't operate, and in that moment in that September, October 2008 moment, you couldn't procure liquidity, durable liquidity if you tried, and we did and you couldn't, um, but six months prior, you could have, and I think a really important lesson for everyone is do that question, what is your greatest source of vulnerability, you can protect against it early on, but not in the moment.

2. **提高可见性**:AIG危机源于其英国衍生品子公司的风险缺乏可见性。她用“挡风玻璃上的泥巴”来比喻,强调必须利用数据和分析来“清除泥巴”,才能更好地管理业务和国家。
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The second really came out of AIG, as we now all know, the crisis in AIG really started because of the derivative sub in the UK, not the op not the insurance operation, and the problem was there wasn't visibility about the risk that was being taken on by the derivative sub, and so the metaphor that I've used since then is you would not drive a car with mud on the windshield, you cannot run a business or a country with mud on the windshield, use data and analytics to clear away that mud, and then you can actually go faster because you're taking calculated risk, you're taking sworn risk.

3. **在危机中选择“最不坏”的选项并持续前进**:危机中没有好选择,停滞不前只会让问题恶化。
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I think the other really important lesson uh was that there are no good choices in a crisis, and so go for the least worst and just keep moving because standing still can actually just amplify, magnify, and you're not going to end up with a good solution in any event by definition, you're in a crisis.

4. **拥有具备“横向视野”的团队**:能够将不同问题联系起来,全面思考。
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Say actually the last one is make sure you have a team with horizontal vision because you got to connect the dots across a lot of different issues.

波拉特女士将这些经验应用于谷歌,认为公司最大的脆弱性在于创新和长期投资

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How do you protect the Google against future vulnerability? So I asked myself that, I then said, okay, I need to apply those same rules here, I think the greatest source of vulnerability for us and frankly really across industries is around innovation and long-term investing.

谷歌园区里有一只名为“斯坦”(Stan)的恐龙雕塑,提醒员工如果不创新,公司也会变成“恐龙”。
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And notably, when you come to campus, um, you will see that Larry and Sergey put a dinosaur on our campus that it's name Stan to remind us every day that if we don't innovate, we too can become dinosaurs.

因此,持续通过Google Labs等项目激发小团队的创新思维,并从资本配置角度确保长期增长投资至关重要。
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And I think it's really important to maintain um efforts like what Sundar did with Labs, Google Labs, other things that are continual Catalyst to continue to really spur small teams to think big and and also from a capital allocation perspective to make sure you're investing for long-term long-term growth.

个人成长:导师指导与终身学习

波拉特女士曾与“万亿美元教练”(Trillion Dollar Coach: 指比尔·坎贝尔,一位硅谷传奇高管教练,曾指导史蒂夫·乔布斯、拉里·佩奇等)比尔·坎贝尔(Bill Campbell: 硅谷传奇高管教练,曾指导多位科技巨头创始人)合作。

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Talking a bit about the personal growth, you worked with what is called the Trillion Dollar Coach Bill Campbell, who has uh well worked with a lot of in successful people, but how did you how did you end up working with him and just what did you learn from him?

她在摩根士丹利担任**首席财务官**(CFO: Chief Financial Officer,首席财务官)五年后,感到职业发展停滞,于是向坎贝尔寻求建议。
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So when I was at Morgan Stanley, I've always had this view in life that I should ask what's my highest and best use and keep learning, and I loved being CFO with James Gorman, he was an absolutely extraordinary CEO, I joined him as his CFO the day he began as CEO, but after about five years, I thought, you know, I feel like I'm plateauing here, and I'm wondering what my next chapter is, and as you said, Bill Campbell is um one of the most extraordinary people that anyone could meet, Trillion Dollar Coach because he had coached Steve Jobs and Larry and Sergey, um, and I sat down with him and said I don't know what my next chapter should be, and I'd love to get your thinking about it.

坎贝尔建议她担任谷歌的CFO,尽管她曾坚决表示不再担任CFO。
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At the end of the two hours, he said I have the perfect role for you, CFO of Google, we both sort of laughed because I had been so adamant the one thing I wouldn't do was be CFO again, I'm like if it's Google, of course, I had run Tech banking at Morgan Stanley involved with the Google IPO, loved Google for years, and um so that's how I ended up here.

坎贝尔是谷歌**首次公开募股**(IPO: Initial Public Offering,首次公开募股)的顾问,她一直热爱谷歌。
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I had run Tech banking at Morgan Stanley involved with the Google IPO, loved Google for years, and um so that's how I ended up here.

坎贝尔是一位直言不讳、智慧的顾问,他总是能激发每个人的最佳状态,并强调人际联系的重要性。
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And then he was always an adviser who was here on campus, and just the wise voice who um was blunt and clear, and when something didn't make sense, you know, he was famous for saying kind of throwing the flag on the field, um, and just truly brought out the best in everyone, made told each of us make sure you always have that human connection and then go into the business item.

在谈到导师制时,波拉特女士强调了“高级空中掩护”(senior air cover: 指在职业生涯中,有资深人士提供支持、保护和指导,使其可以大胆尝试而不必担心失败)的重要性。

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Do you mentor people? Yes, what's the key to good mentorship? Well, I think, you know, when I when you asked that question, I immediately thought of one of the most important discussions I had with someone who ended up becoming with a mentor sponsor, uh, a key person in my career, and it was back in 1996, and I was asked to uh lead technology Equity Capital markets, the part within a bank that's between Banking and sales and trading that really launches IPOs, and this was right at the beginning of the whole internet run of IPOs, there were not very many women on the trading floor, and the guy who ran institutional equities called me into his office and he said I think you're going to soar, but if you stumble, I'm here, I will back stop you, I am your senior air cover, and what really struck me is that we all need senior air cover, and we all need to be senior air cover for someone.

她认为,每个人都需要“高级空中掩护”,同时也应该成为别人的“高级空中掩护”。
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And what he was saying is I know you're going to run far and you're going to run hard, and but I'm here if there's ever an issue, if you need me for something something, and so for me on people who work hard for me, and I see this is a star who needs to be sort of unleash to run to to soar, um, I try and give them the advice that I think has served me best throughout my career, and it's about continuing to learn and have that senior air cover and really apply data and analysis to everything you do.

她自己的导师告诉她:“我知道你会一飞冲天,但如果你跌倒,我会在这里支持你,我是你的高级空中掩护。”这种支持和赋能让她受益匪浅。
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And I just keep coming back to those rules in particular, I think it's so important we each have senior air cover and our senior air cover, did you have a need air cover? You know, there was I was I've reflected on did I actually run into issues, there were small ones, there wasn't a crisis moment where I needed to go to him, but the insurance policy of knowing he was there and the message that he said I know you'll soar, but I'm here to back stop you in case there's an issue is actually a real Catalyst, it's empowering.

她强调持续学习的重要性,这源于她父亲的经历。

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You mentioned um the need and wish to continue to learn, what are you what are you most exciting about learning now? Well, there's there's a there's so much when I talk about AI in this moment, and the conversations I'm having globally about the economic unlock, the real question is what does it mean to radically rethink your business or radically rethink the way you run the public sector?

她的父亲是一名**大屠杀难民**(Holocaust Refugee: 在二战期间因纳粹迫害而逃离家园的犹太人),没有受过高中或大学教育,但通过自学工程和物理,在英国军队服役后,凭借技能在安全的地方立足。
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My father was a Holocaust Refugee, he had no high school or college education, he ended up up enlisting in the British Army, and he fought in the two battles of El Alamein, and he taught himself engineering and physics because he knew or he assumed that if he survived, he wanted to get to a place that was safe, and he needed a skill that people would value, and he thought engineering and physics would be that skill.

父亲常说:“我宁愿做一个受过教育的人死去。”这让她从小就明白“教育是人生的通行证”。
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And as a child, he always told me that his fellow soldiers would tease him and say you're going to be dead before you can ever use this, and he would say I'd rather die an educated man, and then the lesson for me as a child, my siblings, was education as a passport for life, and I firmly believe that, and I think that one of the most important things is never stop learning.

数据驱动决策与拥抱生活

波拉特女士在沃顿商学院(Wharton: 宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院,世界顶尖商学院之一)的毕业演讲中,会强调“永不停止学习”和“一切以数据为基础”。

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So that's why I said when I found myself plateau in my career, I would go to somebody I respected and say what is my highest and best use, and I was open to change and continuing to grow, I think that's one really important one, the other is Anchor everything everything in data at Wharton, you clearly get great analytical skills, a lot of other places as well.

她认为,你可以争论她的方法,但不能争论数据。
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You can argue with me in my approach to something, but you can't argue with data, and I always say don't give me flat data, put it into a sensitivity analysis so that we can debate your assumptions about the state of the world, growth rates, how much do I need to invest, let me engage you with the data, and that should be the basis for the argument.

她还建议毕业生“拥抱生活,活在当下”,不要把想做的事情推迟到以后,因为人生无常。
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And then the other thing I believe I told them, and I believe it is today as I did then, is Embrace Life as it comes, don't defer to a later time something which you can do now, because as I saw with cancer, you don't know if you're gonna have that later time, unfortunately that was 20 years ago, and I'm fine, but in the moment I didn't know, but I was grateful my bucket list wasn't very long, I had done what I wanted, been married to the same guy for many many decades, have three amazing kids, I Professional Care I wanted, don't put it off because life doesn't actually stick to your predefined schedule.

结语

波拉特女士的分享充满了启发性,为本次播客画上了圆满的句号。

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Well, Ruth, that's uh uh really motivational and beautiful place to to end this podcast, big thanks for being with us and thanks for sharing sharing all your thoughts and backgrounds, thank you so much, you it is always wonderful being with you, thank you for having me, thank you.