对中国学习态度的观察

Over lunch, this individual told me, you know, every founder and every VC in China studies the West at a nauseating level. So they listen to all the podcasts, they read everything they possibly can, they study any speech, they look at the financials. And he said, "The West doesn't do that of China."

午餐时，有位人士告诉我，你知道，中国每一个创始人、每一家风险投资机构都在令人作呕的程度上研究西方。他们收听所有的播客，阅读所有能找到的资料，研究每一次演讲，查看财务数据。但他接着说：“西方却不这样研究中国。”

And you know, maybe we should be maybe we should be studying the best and the brightest over there.

你知道，也许我们应该……也许我们应该研究一下那边的精英和佼佼者。

科技巨头估值与资本狂热

It's been really incredible. Uh you know I just I just got back to Silicon Valley um after you know being away for a few weeks these you know the OpenAI deal the Anthropic deal I was just looking at these I think these are bigger private IPOs than any public IPO uh done in the last 5 years in the tech market right.

这真的非常不可思议。你知道，我刚从外地回到硅谷，你知不知道，OpenAI 的交易、Anthropic 的交易，我一直在关注它们。我认为这些私下交易的规模，比过去五年科技市场上的任何一次公开募股（IPO）都要大，对吧？

You had Sam say the other day Sam Alman say you know two two things can be simultaneously true um one that this is the biggest thing to ever happened in technology. But number two, uh, that in the short run things become overheated and people are can get a little bit ahead of themselves. Where are you on that?

前几天山姆（Sam Altman）说过，你知道，有两件事可以同时成立：一是这是科技史上发生的最伟大的事情；二是短期内，事情会变得过热，人们可能会得意忘形。你对此怎么看？

Look, there's just no denying that the amount of capital that is going into these companies earlier in their life and the scale of hiring and their willingness to take on risk, which I think you can use cash burn as just a proxy for risk because you get further away from knowing unit economics and and you're more threatening. you know, I I think what those numbers are unprecedented. Like even against, you know, the Uber Door Dash wars and all this, they're bigger than that.

看，无可否认，投入到这些公司早期的资本量、招聘规模，以及他们愿意承担的风险（我认为可以将烧钱视为风险的代理指标，因为你离了解单位经济效益越来越远，并且更具威胁性），我认为这些数字是前所未有的。即使与优步（Uber）和门达什（DoorDash）的“战争”相比，这些规模也更大。

And so I think it's part of we've talked about it. I think it's part of a systematic trend where investors are aware of network effects. They they've watched companies that get the initial conditions right go on to really big outcomes and they're willing to bet ahead of the curve. And as the more confident they get over more time, the more they're willing to make that bet ahead of time and um and so, you know, it is what it is. We're seeing, you know, massive numbers.

因此，我认为这是我们讨论过的一个系统性趋势的一部分：投资者意识到网络效应。他们目睹了那些初始条件设置正确的公司取得了巨大的成果，他们愿意在曲线前进行投注。随着他们随着时间的推移变得越来越自信，他们就越愿意提前下注。所以，你知道，就是这样，我们看到了巨大的数字。

Well, I'd say it's it's a combination of two things. Extraordinary scaling. We've never seen two companies, in the case of OpenAI, scale uh users and scale revenue as fast as they are. But definitely, you're absolutely right. The private markets are there to meet them. Um, and we're seeing the depth and the breadth of capital and investment in the private markets, I think, unlike anything we've ever seen.

我可以说这是两种因素的结合：非凡的规模扩张。我们从未见过两家公司，以 OpenAI 为例，能如此之快地扩展用户和收入。但你绝对说对了，私人市场就在那里满足它们的需求。我认为私人市场中资本和投资的深度和广度是我们前所未见的。

聚焦中国议题：多方观点概述

But, you know, we're we're going to save that for Yeah, save it for Let's save it. I We We're going to save Let's save that for another day. We're going to do something a little different today. Um, you know, one topic that I think um we we've hit on time and time again, but we're going to we're really just try to dedicate the show to it today, and that's China.

但是，你知道，我们把那个留到……好的，留到以后。我们今天要做点不一样的。你知道，有一个话题，我想我们已经反复讨论过，但今天我们真的想专门把它留给今天，那就是中国。

You know, you just got back from China. It's one of the hottest in many ways most consequential and also most controversial debates I think in Silicon Valley and in Washington.

你知道，你刚从中国回来。这可能是硅谷和华盛顿特区，在许多方面，热度最高、最具影响力和最具争议的辩论之一。

You know on the one hand you have I think national security economic hawks you know who who are in this camp that we should decouple. It's a little bit more cold war 2.0 a great power struggle. This is the mirrorshimer perspective.

一方面，我认为有国家安全和经济上的鹰派，他们主张我们应该“脱钩”。这有点像是“冷战 2.0”，一场大国竞争，这就是米尔斯海默（Mearsheimer）的观点。

You know, maybe in the middle you have, you know, tech pragmatists, I guess I I might call them, you know, like Jensen Hang or Tim Cook. I'd probably put myself in this camp who thinks we we have to compete. We have to re onshore industry. You probably should have some tariffs in order to achieve that. But you you definitely can't decouple or ignore or or antagonize.

在中间派，也许有我称之为“技术务实派”的人，比如黄仁勋（Jensen Huang）或蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）。我可能会把自己归于这一阵营，他们认为我们必须竞争，必须将产业回流（re-shore）。你可能需要一些关税来实现这一点，但绝对不能脱钩、忽视或敌对。

And then maybe on the other end, you have kind of the globalist. I don't know, Jeff Sachs. Jeffrey Sachs is probably in this camp. It's free trade, open science, collaboration.

而在另一端，也许是所谓的“全球主义者”，我不知道，杰弗里·萨克斯（Jeffrey Sachs）。杰弗里·萨克斯可能属于这一阵营，主张自由贸易、开放科学、合作。

And you know, there's this is of tremendous consequence to issues around tariffs and trade, issues around military, issues around AI. And there's this new book out by Dan Wang that I want to talk about um you know uh where where he really takes on the differences between the two countries.

你知道，这对关税和贸易、军事、人工智能等问题都具有巨大的影响。丹·王（Dan Wang）有一本新书，我想谈谈，他深入探讨了这两个国家的差异。

But why don't we start with you know this trip that you recently took. You know, you you just got back from China. Why did why did you go you know and frankly especially given all the you know blowback you've gotten personally benchmarks gotten uh with respect to China maybe for having too soft of view on China. Give me your inspiration for wanting to go and spend as much time as you did studying China.

但我们不妨从你最近的这次旅行开始。你知道，你刚从中国回来。你为什么要去？坦率地说，尤其考虑到你个人因为对中国看法“过于温和”而受到了多少批评和反击。告诉我你这次去中国并花费大量时间进行研究的动机。

访问中国的个人动机与学习目标

Yeah. So I've I've probably been four or five times before this trip but I hadn't been since um co and I've been reading you know about everyone that's been going. We had talked about Thomas Fredman's comments um from his last trip and you hear about all the things that are different.

是的。在这次旅行之前，我可能已经去过四五次了，但自从疫情以来我就没去过了。我一直在阅读有关所有去过那里的人的评论。我们谈论过托马斯·弗里德曼（Thomas Friedman）上次访问后的评论，你听说了很多不同的变化。

Um, you know, personally, my my daughter's an Asian studies major, so she went on the trip with with myself and my wife, and so, you know, with her studying that topic, this is I thought it'd be a great chance for her to see things, too. Um, much younger than us, but I wanted her to go around and the fact that she speaks Mandarin and was helpful on on the trip as well.

你知道，就个人而言，我女儿是亚洲研究专业，所以她和我妻子一起去了这次旅行。所以，考虑到她正在学习这个专业，我认为这对她来说也是一个了解事物的绝佳机会。她比我们年轻得多，但我希望她能去看看。而且她会说普通话，这对这次旅行也很有帮助。

But you, you know, you just said something, right? you said this is probably the most consequential, you know, other nation when it comes to thinking about America or thinking about our stock markets or thinking about how technology companies are evolving. And so I just wanted to learn like like like why wouldn't you want to know more? I don't understand how you if it is the most consequential relationship for our country, why you'd want to know less, right?

但是，你知道，你刚才说了一句话，对吧？你说这可能是对美国、我们的股市或科技公司发展影响最深远的另一个国家。所以我只是想学习，为什么你不想了解更多呢？如果这是对我们国家最重要的关系，我不明白为什么你会想了解得更少，对吧？

And so, um, I've always enjoyed going over there. I've always en enjoyed learning things that I don't know. Um, and I really wanted to see it up close and personal. Um, one thing that was super helpful was Dan Wang, who you just mentioned gave me an early copy of his book, so I read it on the way over there.

所以，我一直很喜欢去那里。我一直很享受学习我不知道的事情。我真的很想亲身体验一下。丹·王（Dan Wang），你刚才提到的，给了我他的书的早期版本，所以我是在去那里的路上读的，这非常有帮助。

丹·王（Dan Wang）及其著作《Breakneck》的介绍

Tell us who tell us a little bit who is Dan Wang.

请告诉我们丹·王是谁？

So, um, it's a gentleman that lived over there. He lived over there during COVID. um you know he's a he's a policy analyst um and he recently moved back to the US um he's at the Hoover Institute been studying China for a long time looks at it through the lens of technology and innovation.

好的，他是一位住在那里的人。他在新冠期间住在那里。他是一名政策分析师，最近搬回了美国，在胡佛研究所工作。他研究中国很长时间了，通过技术和创新的视角来看待它。

And the book's titled breakneck and it's really talking about some of the acceleration um that we've seen in in building you know inside of China but but it it I would suggest the two things about the book that are really interesting one he kind of uses Is it a mirror back on the US? So, it's really about both countries. It's not just about China.

这本书的书名是《Breakneck》（亡命赛车），它实际上谈论了我们在中国内部建设方面所看到的加速。关于这本书，我认为有两点非常有趣：第一，他用它来映照美国吗？所以，它实际上是关于这两个国家的，不只是关于中国。

Um, and then two, he's balanced like he talks about the pros, you know, and the cons of what have happened over there.

第二，他是平衡的，他谈论了那里发生的事情的优点和缺点。

He starts with with this chapter that was recently republished in the Atlantic where he highlights that the vast majority of the polit are former engineers. So this is the the ruling party within China and that the vast majority of the people in Washington DC are former lawyers and you know the he uses that lens to say this is why they're great at building things and maybe why they're not so great at social things.

他从一个最近在《大西洋月刊》上重印的章节开始，其中他强调了政治局（Politburo）的绝大多数成员都是前工程师。这就是中国执政党的情况。而在华盛顿特区，绝大多数人是前律师。他用这个角度来说明为什么他们在建设方面很擅长，但在社会事务方面可能就不那么擅长了。

I think he gives the edge to having the lawyers to protecting free speech and personal rights. He did not enjoy the lockdown in Shanghai which was fairly abrupt. um he's very negative on the one child policy and for those people that don't know the the Chinese government's now trying to encourage people to have three children not successfully but but that's the new program um so they've completely flipped from where they were um but but it's a fascinating read it's a very personal read you can tell that you know his life journey his parents were born there and left you know and went to Canada and that's how he grew up in the west and then he went back and so he has it's I think it's a really interesting lens but it's very very current.

我认为律师在保护言论自由和个人权利方面更有优势。他不喜欢上海那次相当突然的封锁。他对独生子女政策持非常负面的看法，而且对于不知道的人来说，中国政府现在正试图鼓励人们生三个孩子，但并不成功，但这就是新的政策。所以他们完全颠覆了过去的立场。这是一本引人入胜、非常个人化的读物，你可以看出他的生活经历——他的父母在那里出生然后离开了，去了加拿大，所以他在西方长大，然后又回去了。我认为这是一个非常有趣的视角，而且它非常、非常及时。

中国地方政府的竞争与产业发展

One of the things he really dives into and this is something that that people that I talked to that know China have known this for some time but I don't think the general people understand this. So one of the things that's led to the vast buildout so we've read about high-speed trains we've read about overnight cities we've read about their number of companies in the solar space and the EV space.

他深入探讨的一件事，也是我交谈过的了解中国的人早就知道，但普通民众可能不了解的事情是：导致大规模建设的原因之一，我们读到过高铁、一夜建成的城市，以及他们在太阳能和电动汽车领域的公司数量。

One of the reasons that happens is the provincial leaders compete with each other. So the provinces are very competitive with one another. Not in the same way the states are really.

发生这种情况的原因之一是省级领导人之间互相竞争。所以各省之间竞争非常激烈。与各州之间的竞争方式不太一样。

Um, one of the reasons this is true is if you run a province and do well, you put yourself in really good standings to move up in the federal government.

其中一个原因是，如果你成功地管理了一个省份并取得了好成绩，你就能在联邦政府中获得非常好的晋升机会。

But wouldn't you say that's a I mean that seems to me like Gavin Newsom competing you know with Dantis in Florida on you know who is more business friendly who is tougher on immigration. It seems a little bit the same way.

但你难道不认为这有点像加文·纽森（Gavin Newsom）在佛罗里达州与德桑蒂斯（DeSantis）竞争，看谁对商业更友好，谁在移民问题上更强硬吗？这看起来有点相似。

I think it's a little bit the same way but the difference is that because there's a singular government that's going to make choices like like in the US if you do well as a governor you might get elected. But in this case, it's more like divisions of a company and if you run one well, you might get the CEO job and and so that competition, you know, leads to overbuild in certain cases.

我认为有点相似，但区别在于，由于有一个统一的政府来做决定。比如在美国，如果你作为州长做得好，你可能会当选。但在这种情况下，更像是公司的部门，如果你把一个部门管得好，你可能会得到 CEO 的职位。所以这种竞争在某些情况下会导致过度建设。

So there's several ghost cities um that that are buildings that are empty, you know, where they've built too fast, are now facing problems even though they're the world leader in EVs and the world leader in solar panels where some of these companies need to go bankrupt and a province may not want them to because of employment issues, right? And so those are th those are flip, you know, two sides of a coin. You get one benefit, you get hyper competition.

所以有好几个“鬼城”，那里建了太快、空置的建筑，现在正面临问题，尽管他们在电动汽车和太阳能电池板领域是世界领导者。其中一些公司可能需要破产，而一个省份可能因为就业问题而不希望它们破产，对吧？所以这是事物的两面性。你获得一个好处，就是超强竞争。

We talked about the thousand flowers bloom. So this the the federal government publishes every five years this this mandate of the things these are the things that are important and you need to go work on and then the provinces you know go go at it like they go right against those initiatives and that's that's how they've got taken a lead in those things we mentioned and energy production right you wonder we talk about all the number of nuclear plants that they have new nuclear starts solar farms wind farms.

我们谈到了“百花齐放”。联邦政府每五年发布一次任务清单，说明哪些领域是重要的，需要努力攻克，然后各省就朝着这些方向努力。这就是他们如何在我们提到的能源生产等领域取得领先地位的原因，你想想他们拥有的核电站数量、新的核电项目、太阳能农场和风力农场。

中国的创新能力：超越“模仿”的视角

I want to dig into that I think there's this general view that China's good at building things, building iPhones, but perhaps not at innovating, right? And then, you know, Jensen Hang reminded us recently that 50% of the world's AI researchers are in China and they're indeed innovating and not copying.

我想深入探讨一下。有一种普遍的看法认为，中国擅长制造东西，比如制造 iPhone，但不擅长创新，对吧？然后，黄仁勋最近提醒我们，全球一半的 AI 研究人员都在中国，而且他们确实在创新而不是抄袭。

You know, on the ground, when you look at the things happening in auto, when you look at the things happening in AI, when you look at that things happening in space or energy, etc. Um, how would you compare contrast as a venture capitalist the level of rigor and innovation and excitement, enthusiasm, um, and investment, I guess, going on against these, you know, critical future industries.

你知道，在汽车、人工智能、太空或能源等领域，当你实地观察正在发生的事情时，作为一个风险投资家，你如何比较在这些关键的未来行业中，投入的严谨程度、创新水平、兴奋度、热情以及投资力度？

Well, if you're over there, you you know that the bite dance founder is just remarkably unique. You know, Le Jun at Xiaomi is remarkably unique. And if you spend time um studying those people, I just I don't know how you would possibly think that they can't innovate. I mean, Tik Tok was there first, right? And then it came here and then reals copied Tik Tok.

如果你在那里，你会知道字节跳动（ByteDance）的创始人非常独特。小米的雷军也非常独特。如果你花时间研究这些人，我真不知道你怎么会认为他们无法创新。我的意思是，《抖音》是先在那里的，对吧？然后才来到这里，接着 Reels 抄袭了抖音。

One thing that doesn't seem like innovation, but I was surprised by PopMart is a uh 4050 billion dollar public company, which is a children's toy company that started in China and is everywhere over there. But like just the idea that that there is no innovation.

有一家公司，乍一看似乎不是创新，但我很惊讶，泡泡玛特（PopMart）是一家市值四五百亿美元的上市公司，这是一家起源于中国的儿童玩具公司，现在在那里无处不在。但仅仅是认为那里没有创新，这种想法……

You know, one one of my favorite meetings and I promised I would protect the innocent. So I'm not going to sure who it was with, but over lunch this individual told me, you know, every founder and every VC in China studies the West at a nauseating level. So they listen to all the podcasts, they read everything they possibly can, they study any speech, they look at the financials.

你知道，我最喜欢的会面之一（我保证保护相关人士的隐私，所以我不会说出是谁），这位人士午餐时告诉我，中国每一个创始人、每一家 VC 都在令人作呕的程度上研究西方。他们听所有的播客，阅读所有能找到的资料，研究每一次演讲，查看财务数据。

And he said the West doesn't do that of China. And you know, maybe this goes back to my main motivation for going over there to learn, but that I thought that was a very provocative statement that he made, you know, and um maybe we should be maybe we should be studying the best and the brightest over there.

他说：“西方却没有这样研究中国。”你知道，这或许回到了我这次去那里学习的主要动机，我认为他说的话极具启发性，也许我们应该研究一下那边的精英。

汽车行业：中国电动汽车的创新与速度

Well, let's let's dive into, you know, maybe one industry, I I guess, as a lens. Yeah. I know you spent a bunch of time uh in the auto industry. Yeah. Right. Looking at all of these new entrance and I help us understand the innovation that's happening there on two dimensions. One on uh you know just electric vehicles. number two on you know maybe autonomy and then number three I'm just curious like how Tesla is able to compete so effectively you know in a market where you have this hyper competition uh for electric vehicles.

好吧，让我们深入探讨一下，也许以一个行业作为视角。我知道你在汽车行业花了很多时间，对吧？看看所有这些新进入者，请帮我们分析一下那里的创新，从两个维度来看：一是纯电动汽车，二是自动驾驶。第三，我很好奇特斯拉在如此激烈的电动汽车市场竞争中，是如何保持有效竞争的？

Yeah. So I I I had a number of auto experiences when I was over there. First of all I I was invited to um visit BYD. This is my they gave me a nice coat. I um I met with Stella Lee who is their number one executive I think facing outside of China. Um she runs all their Europe initiatives. For those people that don't know BYD is the largest EV manufacturer in the world at about 4 million vehicles. Um they started in batteries. They they you know they compete in with uh Fox Con to build mobile phones. They bought Jable Circuit. You remember that old company?

是的。我在那里有几次与汽车相关的经历。首先，我受邀参观了比亚迪（BYD）。他们给了我一件漂亮的夹克。我见了他们的“一号”高管Stella Lee，她负责中国以外的所有欧洲业务。对于不了解的人来说，比亚迪是全球最大的电动汽车制造商，年产量约 400 万辆。他们从电池起家。他们与富士康竞争制造手机。他们收购了捷邦电路（Jable Circuit），你还记得那家老公司吗？

I do.

我记得。

And they make lots of things. They make buses and subways and all kinds of different things, but they got into cars uh over I don't know about 5 to 10 years ago. Um they have a number of models. They gave me this one. This is, you know, a a very kind of high-end sports car. In fact, I met a public company CEO that was proudly showing me this was his favorite car that he drives around. They make an SUV you can drive into the water. I don't I don't know exactly why you'd want to do that, but we rode it into the water, drove around in the water, and drove out. Um, they have cars at 10 to 15 grand price point on the entry side. They've hired a European designer, which is how they're building stuff like this. Um, on the higher end, um, and, um, they're very aggressive from a cost perspective. I think BYD more than anyone on the cost side. It's not preventing them from building higher-end cars as well. Um, so that's BYD.

他们制造很多东西，包括公共汽车、地铁以及各种不同的产品，但大约五到十年前他们开始涉足汽车领域。他们有很多车型。他们给了我这一款，这是一款非常高端的跑车。事实上，我遇到了一位上市公司 CEO，他自豪地向我展示说这是他最喜欢的车。他们还生产一款可以开进水里的 SUV。我不知道你为什么要这么做，但我们确实把它开进了水里，在水里开了开，然后又开了出来。他们的入门级汽车价格在 1 万到 1.5 万美元之间。他们聘请了欧洲设计师来设计像这样的高端产品。从成本角度来看，比亚迪比任何人都更具侵略性，但这并没有阻止他们制造更高端的汽车。所以，这就是比亚迪。

I also had a chance it to visit Xiaoi. They also gave me a car. The uh the Xiai is a super interesting story if people don't know. So I I was fortunate enough to meet Lejun back in 0304. Um but about 13 10 to 13 years ago he started a phone company and that's what Xiai is and that company's now third I think around the globe in handsets sold heavy in Europe heavy in South America not just China um and 3 to four years ago I think around 2021 he decided to build a car and it was about the same time Apple said they were going to build a car and and mind you this guy was back in 03 ran an e-commerce company called Joy-Yo. Like like he's he wasn't I there's no reason he should be able to build a phone and then build a car.

我也有机会参观了小鹏（Xiaomi，此处应指 Xpeng）。他们也给了我一辆车。如果大家不知道，小鹏的故事非常有趣。我很有幸在 2003 或 2004 年见到了雷军。大约在 10 到 13 年前，他创办了一家手机公司，小鹏就是这家公司，这家公司现在在全球手机销量中位列第三，在欧洲和南美市场占有重要地位，不只是在中国。大约三四年前，也就是 2021 年左右，他决定造车，这与苹果宣布要造车的时间差不多。请记住，这个人早在 2003 年就运营了一家名为“卓越网”（Joyo.com）的电子商务公司。他能够先造手机再造车，这似乎没有先例。

创新速度的归因：工程文化与监管环境

So what do you attribute that to Bill? like why you know when you see that you know again going back to Dan Wang's book he's like this is an engineering culture that has built these technological ecosystems that gives rise to a higher velocity of innovation uh you know than we see in the United States that Dan would argue is bogged down by you know regulatory capture and lawyers etc. Why do you think uh you know Xiai is so successful?

那么，比尔，你认为这归因于什么呢？当你看到这种情况时，回顾一下丹·王的观点，他认为这是一种工程文化，建立了这些技术生态系统，从而产生了比美国更高的创新速度。丹·王认为美国因监管俘获和律师等因素而步履蹒跚。你认为小鹏为什么会如此成功？

And by the way let me let me just share with you some numbers. So, so they're making uh a thousand of these a day. They just came out with a kind of a Cayenne thousand cars a day. Yeah. In in this in the factory that I went to, um it it it they're sold out. They have like a 30 to 40 week backlog. Um you have to pay five grand to get on the waiting list. The factory, this is an interesting data point, the factory makes a thousand cars a day with 2,000 employees.

顺便说一句，我给你分享一些数据。他们每天生产大约一千辆这种车（指小鹏的高端车型，类似于卡宴 Cayenne）。是的。在我参观的工厂里，他们已经售罄了，有 30 到 40 周的积压订单。你必须支付五千美元才能进入等候名单。工厂，这是一个有趣的数据点，工厂以 2000 名员工的配置，每天生产一千辆车。

Um, it was highly automated, like really highly automated. I imagine that they plan to improve that number over the next 5 years. Let's say they took it to a,000 employees for a thousand cars. That'd be a employee per car per day. That number is like at six in the US. And that's super interesting for a number of things. It's like if you want to bring the jobs back there by the time you get the jobs back there may not be any jobs like like at one because of automation the entire global you know potential for car manufacturing in 5 to 10 years from now could be like 400k total and so you know we we need we just need to be really thoughtful about those things but but back to Lejun he gave a talk in 2024 we're talking about maybe people should be watching and learning in both directions that I would encourage people to watch. It's on YouTube. It's his State of the Union from 2024.

它实现了高度自动化，非常高度的自动化。我估计他们在未来五年内会提高这个数字。假设他们将产能提高到每天 1000 辆车对应 1000 名员工。那将是每天每辆车对应一名员工。这个数字在美国大约是六个。这对很多事情来说都非常有趣。就好比，如果你想把工作带回美国，等你把工作带回来时，可能已经没有工作了，因为自动化了。未来 5 到 10 年，全球汽车制造业的总潜力可能只有 40 万个职位。所以我们需要对这些事情非常谨慎。但回到雷军，他在 2024 年做了一个演讲，我们谈论的也许是人们应该在两个方向上观察和学习，我鼓励人们去看一看。它在 YouTube 上，是他的 2024 年度“国情咨文”。

And he spends about an hour talking about his approach to building a car. And it sounded like so ridiculously I don't like like you ask about entrepreneurial. He he he decided that he hadn't been driving a car for 10 years because he had had a driver. So, he immediately switched seats with his driver and then he um he went through the parking lot at his company and if there was ever a car he had not driven, he'd leave a note on it and ask to borrow it and then he would have the uh the owner of the car tell them what they liked and didn't like. So, he claimed he drove 170 cars that way. Um and then he also like BYD, they hired a European designer um that came in and helped him out. But for an entrepreneur who had never been in the car business to build a factory in a three-year window and and look, same thing was true. Our friend Omid built a factory in Texas, you know, you know, under 40. Like just spectacular that that these entrepreneurs are capable of doing these things.

他花了一个小时谈论他造车的理念。听起来非常不可思议，就像你问到创业精神一样。他决定他有十年没开车了，因为他一直有司机。所以他立刻和司机换了座位，然后他……他查看了公司停车场的每一辆车，如果有一辆他没开过，他就会在上面留张便条借车，然后让车主告诉他喜欢和不喜欢的地方。所以他声称他以这种方式开了 170 辆车。而且他也像比亚迪一样，聘请了一位欧洲设计师来帮忙。对于一个从未涉足汽车行业的企业家来说，在三年内建成一座工厂——你看，同样的事情也发生在我们的朋友奥米德（Omid）身上，他在德克萨斯州建了一家工厂，时间不到 40 个月。这些企业家能做到这些，真是太了不起了。

But it just kind of blows my mind like when I was being driven in this golf cart through this factory just thinking that this person wasn't in the business three or four years ago. And for for people that don't know, I'd encourage you to go online and and so uh the CEO of Ford Farley, he went over there and I think had the exact same tour I did and he insisted they ship him one back to Chicago and he's been driving it around and he's made some ex pretty extreme statements um after having experienced John. This car sells for about 40k. Um but he said it's the most humbling thing I've ever seen.

但当我坐着高尔夫球车穿过这座工厂时，我只是在想，这个人三四年前根本不在这个行业里，这让我感到震惊。我鼓励那些不了解的人上网查一下。福特 CEO 法利（Farley）去那里参观，我敢打赌他经历了和我完全一样的游览。他坚持要把一辆车运回芝加哥，他一直在开，并在体验了这辆车之后发表了一些非常极端的言论。这辆车售价约 4 万美元。但他称这是他见过的最令人谦卑的事情。

And he says even beyond that their cost their quality of vehicles is far superior to what I see in the west. We are in a global competition with China and it's not just EVs. If we do not if if we lose this we do not have a future at Ford. you know that's farly at Ford, you know, and and I by the way, I would take a pause after mentioning that to the people that are going to um accuse just because I went over there to learn accuse me of somehow being like a a an agent for the CCP. Is that also true of the CEO of Ford? You know, like why is he saying these things? Like we're just witnessing what's happening on the ground.

他说，更重要的是，他们的成本和汽车质量远超我在西方看到的情况。我们正处于与中国的全球竞争之中，而且不只是电动汽车。如果我们输掉这场竞争，福特将不复存在。你知道，那是福特的法利说的。顺便说一句，我想提醒那些会指责我（仅仅因为我去那里学习）成了 CCP 特工的人，福特 CEO 也是这么说的吗？为什么他会说这些话？我们只是在见证地面上发生的事情。

One of my observations is, and you hear this from Elon, you hear this from Jensen Huang, you hear this from Tim Cook, you hear it from Farley, it's extreme respect for the for the level of innovation, um, for the focus, for the engineering culture that exists in China. And that to me, one of the reasons I wanted to do this pod on China is because I think it's as much a reflection about what the United States needs to do to re-engineer its own society, right?

我的观察之一是，你从埃隆（Elon）、黄仁勋、蒂姆·库克和法利那里都能听到，他们对中国存在的创新水平、专注度和工程文化表示极大的尊重。对我来说，我想做这个关于中国的播客的一个原因，就是我认为这在很大程度上反映了美国需要做些什么来重新设计自己的社会，对吧？

It's not enough to say that we want to re onshore critical manufacturing. It really is about, you know, this movement around American exceptionalism, America builds. It's about making the reforms necessary whether it's regulatory capture whether it's the you know tort reform legal reform required to frankly allow uh uh you know this level of innovation and recognize that we're in this global competition you know and there are two ways in which you can you can approach this bill one is we can build barriers we can try to decouple and we can pretend the rest of the world somehow won't buy China's goods You know, but if you look at it today, the US only represents about 14% of China's exports. The US only represents about 3% of China's GDP.

光说我们想把关键制造业回流到美国是不够的。这实际上关系到“美国例外论”、“美国制造”的运动。这是关于进行必要的改革，无论是监管俘获、侵权改革还是法律改革，这些改革需要坦率地允许这种水平的创新，并认识到我们正处于这场全球竞争之中。比尔，你有两种处理方式：一种是建立壁垒，试图脱钩，并假装世界其他地方不会购买中国的商品。但如果你看看今天的数据，美国只占中国出口的大约 14%，只占中国 GDP 的大约 3%。

Yep.

是的。

Right. So, like we're just not that important to China. I I don't want to understate like, you know, we're still very significant, but China has found a market in Europe. They found a market in Africa. They found a market in South America, right? And it it seems to me that the harder pill for the US to swallow and this is where I think that you know I I I'm in the camp of of those in the middle who say we need to engage. We need to compete. There is a competition. We want to win the competition. But this is about focusing on us and winning and running a faster race.

对。所以，我们对中国来说没那么重要。我不是想低估，我们仍然很重要，但中国已经在欧洲、非洲、南美找到了市场，对吧？在我看来，美国更难接受的是——我认为我属于中间派，我们应该接触、竞争，存在竞争，我们想赢，但重点是关注我们自己，跑得更快。

We have a lot of reforms. I think a lot are occurring now. I think we're doing the type of things that we need to be doing um in order to get more globally competitive. There are industries that are critical to our national security um you know things like rare earth magnets, things like uh you know steel productions, things like pharmaceuticals where I think it is appropriate to have both an industrial policy and a tariff policy that's going to provide the incentives to those industries. Um, but it it's, you know, to me, you know, the reflection on what I hear you saying about China when I read Dan's book is that China is putting the accelerator to the floor in terms of innovation and it's in every single industry. It's powered by, you know, the this provincial competition you talked about. It's powered by people who are just, you know, naturally entrepreneurial and hardworking. Um, and there's no escaping that and there's no putting that genie back in the box.

我认为现在正在进行很多改革。为了提高全球竞争力，我们正在做我们需要做的事情。在一些对我国国家安全至关重要的行业，比如稀土磁铁、钢铁生产、制药，我认为有必要实施产业政策和关税政策，为这些行业提供激励。但对我来说，当我读丹·王的 পড়েন时，我对你所说的中国情况的反映是，中国正在创新方面全力加速，而且是在每一个行业。它由你提到的省级竞争驱动，由那些天生具有企业家精神和勤奋的人驱动。这是不可避免的，也无法让这只精灵回到瓶子里。

Would you What are your thoughts on that?

你对此有何看法？

中国制造的成本优势与全球市场

Yeah. No, I think it's exactly right. I mean, BYD has um a big presence in Hungary and they have a fac they're building a factory in or already have one in Mexico. And why, if you're Mexico, would you not buy the 10 to 20 grand EV? Why would you buy the 50 grand one from America? It just doesn't make any sense, right? like you're if for any country around the world and I could reflect this on the US as well if you're not going to buy you know domestically you you should certainly buy from the low-cost producer right it goes back to to comparative advantage right if you if you can't produce a globally competitive product and you close your import border your people are forced to buy a product that that is overpriced and and and not and and so from a from a standard of living perspective, they're worse off than they would be if you had opened the import door.

是的，我认为你说得完全正确。比亚迪在匈牙利有很大的业务，他们正在墨西哥建设或已经有了一家工厂。如果我是墨西哥，为什么我不买 1 万到 2 万美元的电动汽车？为什么我要买美国那辆 5 万美元的呢？这根本说不通，对吧？对于世界上任何一个国家——我也可以用美国的情况来类比——如果你不选择国内生产，你当然应该从成本最低的生产商那里购买，这回到了比较优势。如果你不能生产具有全球竞争力的产品而关闭进口大门，你的民众就不得不购买价格过高且不够好的产品，从生活水平的角度来看，他们会比开放进口时更糟。

And so I don't you know, I I'll give you another example of this. So this is the the BYD. This is the Apollo um competitor to Whimo. So we we've we've seen the Whimos around Austin and San Francisco. We've ridden in them. This is I've ridden in this now. Um, it's a little bigger, I think, a little roomier than than than the Jaguar for sure. Um, it's more of an SUV. Um, but this is on the streets, you know, and Apollo is kind of interesting. It's inside of BYU, which is a search engine company. Um, while people are simultaneous, while people are saying that that that Whimos should be worth 170 billion inside of of Google, you can buy shares of BYU for zero enterprise value. It's a 30 billion market cap, 30 billion in cash on the books. Um, and from a global perspective, I don't know why if this is 30K, why you'd want to deploy Whimos, which people say are over 150K partially due to the to the MIM solid state LAR advantage that China has, which we've talked about previously.

所以，我再给你举一个例子。这是比亚迪的阿波罗（Apollo），是 Waymo 的竞争对手。我们在奥斯汀和旧金山看到了 Waymo，也乘坐过。我这次也乘坐了阿波罗。我记得它更大、更宽敞一些，比捷豹（Jaguar）更宽敞。它更像一辆 SUV。它已经在街上跑了，阿波罗很有趣，它隶属于百度（BYU，此处应指 Baidu）。当人们说 Waymo 在谷歌内部值 1700 亿美元的时候，你可以以零企业价值购买百度的股票。它有 300 亿美元的市值，账上有 300 亿美元的现金。从全球角度来看，如果阿波罗才 3 万美元，我不知道为什么你还想部署 Waymo，据说 Waymo 的造价超过 15 万美元，部分原因是中国在激光雷达（LiDAR）固态技术上的优势，我们之前讨论过。

So yeah, I think rest of world is a really interesting thing to think about, you know, when you compare the two countries because I don't think that I I person and I I don't have a ton of data on this, but I I personally don't think all the other countries in the world share the same level of hawkishness that at least part of the members of our national government have. And so I don't think they're going to be as afraid of their technologies.

所以，我认为“世界其他地区”是比较中美两国时非常值得思考的一点，因为我不认为世界上所有其他国家都和我们国家政府的某些成员一样，持有如此强硬的立场。因此，我认为他们不会对中国的技术感到那么害怕。

贸易和关税政策建议

Let's think about this in the context of you know uh uh uh what you seen if you were giving advice to Trump uh on export controls for example Bill um you know whether it's on you know AI chips or other things um you know would you be uh you know what would your advice be?

让我们从这个角度来思考，如果你要向特朗普就出口管制（例如 AI 芯片或其他事情）提供建议，比尔，你的建议会是什么？

Well, I mean, I think you hit on some of it around the red tape. And, you know, there's a couple different things in certain industries where we're really behind. I would be very open-minded to JVS coming towards us. You know, for the past 50 years, you know, European car manufacturers, US car manufacturers, they opened facilities in China. Some of them were forced to be 49% owned, 51% owned. I'd be very open to that kind of thing.

嗯，我认为你谈到了其中的一些方面，比如繁文缛节。在某些行业，我们确实落后了，有几件不同的事情。我非常愿意接受合资企业（JVs）向我们靠拢。你知道，在过去的 50 年里，欧洲和美国的汽车制造商都在中国开设了工厂。其中一些被迫是 49% 控股或 51% 控股。我非常愿意接受这类事情。

Um there was some positive news out this past week um following Trump's engagement with Korea around nuclear which we have talked about before. Korea can build a nuclear plant for 1/4 the price that we can. Why don't you invite them to come help us build a few in the US and see what we can learn? And I wonder if we should allow Ford. There's going to be there are so many EV companies I didn't even mention, you know, NEO and Ziker and some of these other thing. They're all innovating in different ways, but some of those are going to have financial trouble. NEO's public. You can see that that the stock's not doing all that well, but would we let a Ford or a GM buy one of those companies, right? Maybe we should. I don't know if the China government would let them. Would we let one of those companies open a JV with Ford or GM in the US? I think we should if we'd learned from it. You could say the same thing about solar um or any of these technologies where they have a lead, solar, nuclear. So, I would be open-minded to those types of things.

上周出现了一些积极消息，是在特朗普与韩国就核能问题接触之后，我们之前也讨论过。韩国建造一座核电站的成本只有我们国家的四分之一。为什么不邀请他们来美国帮助我们建造几座，看看我们能学到什么？我想知道我们是否应该允许福特……中国有那么多电动汽车公司，我甚至没有提到蔚来（NEO）、极氪（Ziker）等其他公司。它们都在以不同的方式进行创新，但其中一些将会遇到财务困难。蔚来是上市公司，你可以看到它的股价表现不佳。但我们会允许福特或通用汽车收购其中一家公司吗？也许我们应该。我不知道中国政府是否会允许。我们会允许其中一家公司在美与福特或通用建立合资企业吗？如果能从中学习，我认为我们应该。同样的情况也适用于太阳能或任何他们领先的技术，太阳能、核能。所以，我对这类事情持开放态度。

Um I would be really big on trying to get regulation out of the way and recognizing that that an autocratic country that has specific goals can move so much faster um in any industry than you ever could in the US. um because we've created so many people whose jobs it are to block things. Um and we're seeing I think we're seeing that type of behavior in certain states which is why TSMC's in Arizona, which is why Tesla's in Texas. I would give Governor Shapiro a lot of credit um for reopening Three Mile Island and what he did with I95. like like all those things are signs of recognizing that we've built mud, you know, in in our system um that prevents building and how do you how do you start to remove that and move in the opposite direction.

我非常主张清除监管障碍，并认识到一个拥有特定目标的专制国家在任何行业中的推进速度都远超美国。因为我们创造了太多以阻碍事情为工作的人。我认为我们在某些州看到了这种行为，这就是台积电（TSMC）在亚利桑那州，特斯拉在德克萨斯州的原因。我非常赞赏州长夏皮罗（Shapiro）重新开放三里岛（Three Mile Island）以及他对 I95 的所作所为。所有这些都表明，我们认识到我们的体系中存在“泥泞”，阻碍了建设，我们如何开始清除这些障碍并朝相反的方向发展？

关于关税的权衡：聚焦国内改革

specifically uh you know thinking about the tariff? So, you know, I think that the president uh tweeted yesterday morning if you know, if we don't get I it it was appearing that we're on a glide path and making a lot of progress with China, we may very well be. I think he tweeted yesterday morning that if we don't get rare earth magnets from China, he could raise the tariff rate to 200%. There was some talk that he was going to visit China in the first week of September. So that's, you know, right around the corner.

具体来说，我们来谈谈关税。所以，我认为总统昨天早上发推说，如果我们得不到稀土磁铁，他可能会把关税提高到 200%。还有传言说他九月第一周会访问中国。

Um, I said on a couple pods ago, I thought that, you know, the way to understand uh this president is that he's a self-described deal junkie. He's a pragmatist. He's not an ideologue. It seems to me that when he's talking with Jensen Wang and others, he falls in that kind of pragmatic centrist category. Um, he certainly wants to rebuild stuff in the United States, but at the same time, it appears to me he wants to get a big big deal done on China. Where do you come down? Again, if you were adviser on the tariff side of things, Bill, um do you think he's going to get a big deal done with China? Do you think that's the right thing uh to do? And how do you think that influences uh some of the building that you're talking about?

我之前在几个播客中提到过，我认为理解这位总统的方式是：他是一个自称的“交易迷”，他是一个实用主义者，而不是一个教条主义者。在我看来，当他与黄仁勋等人交谈时，他属于那种务实的中间派。他当然想在美国重建东西，但同时，在我看来，他想与中国达成一项大交易。你对此怎么看？如果让你做关税方面的顾问，比尔，你认为他会和中国达成大交易吗？你认为这是正确的做法吗？你认为这对你所说的“建设”有何影响？

Okay, th this is I I have zero insight like I didn't I I didn't I didn't meet with anyone in the in the CCP or the government so I have no idea what what their mindset I this is pure speculation on my my part. Um, you already brought up the fact that that we're a much smaller percentage of their exports than people think about. And as a result, you know, I think that they're going to be China is going to be far more um biased by what they view as as fair and and face saving than they are necessarily like numeric.

好的，我对这个问题没有任何了解，因为我没有会见中共和政府的任何人，所以我不知道他们的心态如何。这完全是我的猜测。你已经提到了，我们占他们出口的百分比远没有人们想象的那么大。因此，我认为他们（中国）会更多地受到他们认为的“公平”和“面子”的驱动，而不是纯粹的数字。

And so I think if we if someone were to approach them in a pragmatic way, I think a pragmatic deal could easily get done. I you know, if they are engineers, as Dan Wang said, I it's not like, you know, they they wouldn't accept a pragmatic outcome. I think they would, but if we um if we're intent on being derogatory in our language and and by the way, that's the thing that I just really don't understand um that you see in Washington, you see it on that select committee of the CCP and you see it from some of the the the people in Silicon Valley. I just don't understand the value of being uh belligerent and but but penny people clearly are.

所以，我认为如果有人以务实的方式与他们接触，达成一项务实的交易是很容易的。你知道，如果他们是工程师，就像丹·王所说的那样，他们不会拒绝务实的成果。我认为他们会接受。但是，如果我们打算使用侮辱性的语言——顺便说一句，这是我真的不理解的，你在华盛顿、在那个特别委员会、在硅谷的一些人那里都能看到这一点——我不明白好斗有什么价值。但很明显，一些人就是如此。

I mean, they have four times the number of citizens on this earth than we do. And um none everybody's, you know, country of birth is something that happens to them outside of their control. So I I just don't know why vilifying uh a billion people is a good idea. Um so I think it's possible. I think there's a I think they would do a deal. Um, and I just don't know if uh if we get caught up in a silly um tit for tat verbal war what the benefit of that is and anything like that. And this is one of the points Sachs makes um Jeffrey Sachs not David you you you might provoke World War II.

我的意思是，他们有我们四倍多的人口。而且，一个人的出生地是他们无法控制的事情。所以我真的不知道为什么妖魔化十亿人是个好主意。因此，我认为达成交易是可能的，他们会愿意做交易。我只是不知道，如果我们卷入一场愚蠢的针锋相对的口水战，那有什么好处。萨克斯（Sachs）也提出了这一点，杰弗里·萨克斯，而不是大卫（David），你可能会引发第二次世界大战。

So what what do you what do you what's how do you put that into your MPV calculation? Is it fair to say that, you know, I think if you look at tariffs, um, heading into this year, they've basically doubled on China, but if we put tariffs on, you know, particular industries in order to incent, uh, building and industries in the United States, imagine it was a deal a bit like Japan, Bill, where we also, you know, cut a deal with the Chinese that they had a trillion dollars of investment the way we have with other companies that go into to the US into some of these uh you know industries and that we perhaps get some reciprocity and reduction of barriers to some Chinese goods into into China where how would you handicap that?

那么，你如何将这一点纳入你的“宏观价值预测”（MPV）计算中？如果看看今年的关税走势，它们对中国基本上翻了一番。但是，如果我们对特定行业征收关税，以激励美国国内的建设和产业发展，想象一下，这是否像当年与日本达成的协议那样，我们与中国达成一项协议，他们对美国进行一万亿美元的投资，就像我们与其他进入美国的中国公司那样，而我们也许能换取一些对等待遇，减少中国商品进入中国市场的壁垒，你会如何评估这种情况？

Did you get any sense um uh or or or you know do you get any sense from the uh the stuff you read in the United States as to the the probability of that? I think it's one of the biggest influences as we look at growth in the back half of this year, as we look at market sentiment in the back half of this year.

你是否从你在美国读到的材料中感受到这种可能性有多大？我认为这是我们观察今年下半年增长和市场情绪时最大的影响因素之一。

Ironically, one of the things that I mean, like I said, I met with I met with companies and founders and and and a few academicians, but I did I and some journalists, but I didn't meet with with the government. But in general, there's just not any hostility from their side, from that group of people that I met with. In fact, most of those um most of those people look up to the US founders that have done great things, the Jobs and the Elons, and most of them aspire to compete globally the same way a founder in the US would like. And so they would like to see all this um rhetoric die down and they would like to have the opportunity to come to the US market. They'd like the opportunity to compete in Europe and South America.

具有讽刺意味的是，我说过，我见到了公司、创始人和一些学者，还有一些记者，但我没有见到政府官员。但总的来说，我遇到的那群人中，没有表现出任何敌意。事实上，他们中的大多数人仰慕那些做出伟大成就的美国创始人，比如乔布斯和埃隆，他们中的大多数人都渴望像美国的创始人一样在全球竞争。所以他们希望看到所有这些言论平息下来，并希望有机会进入美国市场。他们希望有机会在欧洲和南美竞争。

many are Xiai and BYD already are and so I think like I said I think there's a pragmatic deal to do um to the extent and and if if that um led to the types of programs that I just talked about this kind of JV thing where there's a market they're a leader in and we you know have that company come to the US and help us understand um how to compete in some of these technologies and get to lower price points I think that'd be fantastic.

小鹏和比亚迪已经在做这些了。所以，就像我说的，我认为可以达成一项务实的协议。如果这能带来我刚才提到的合资企业计划，比如他们在某个市场是领导者，而我们能让那家公司来美国帮助我们了解如何在某些技术中竞争并达到更低的价格点，我认为这将是极好的。

谁从美中关系中获益最多？

Do you feel like over the last 20 years, who do you think's gotten the best out of the relationship, Bill?

比尔，你觉得过去 20 年里，谁从这种关系中获益最大？

You know, I haven't read this uh Apple China book. Um it's it a lot of people have been talking about it and I and I aim to. Um it it I think the problem with looking at it that way is you know you and I have talked about this finite versus infinite game is you know where are we in the time of the planet and what do you think the planet's going to look like 15 20 30 years from now I mean I think it'd be very easy to say you know using your framing to say the US took advantage of Europe post World War II and a lot of the manufacturing that existed prior to World War II shifted to America. Um, and so you could then with that same frame say, yeah, China, you know, grew on the back of America and and and you know from from that time,

你知道，我还没有读过那本关于苹果和中国的书。很多人都在谈论它，我打算去读。我认为用那种方式看待问题的麻烦在于，你知道，你和我讨论过有限博弈与无限博弈。我们现在处于地球历史的哪个阶段？你认为 15 年、20 年、30 年后地球会是什么样子？我的意思是，用你的框架来说，很容易说美国在二战后占了欧洲的便宜，二战前存在的许多制造业转移到了美国。然后你可以用同样的框架说，是的，中国在很大程度上是依靠美国发展起来的。

but I kind of look at it another way, which is there have been different periods where these different countries have industrialized. You know, we were a huge beneficiary post World War II because most of Asia and Europe had been blown up and there was no production capability whatsoever. And a lot of the kind of glory day mindset that we have about what life and generational change should be like in the US come from that time. Um, which is a bit unfair I think from a global perspective.

但我从另一个角度来看待它，那就是不同国家工业化有不同的时期。你知道，二战后我们是巨大的受益者，因为亚洲和欧洲大部分地区都被摧毁了，没有任何生产能力。我们现在对美国生活和代际变化的“光荣时代”心态，很大程度上来自于那个时期。我认为从全球角度来看，这有点不公平。

But there's a ton of hardworking people over there. you know, Deng Xiaoping brought capitalism underneath the uh the Chinese government and led to the biggest, you know, um increase in standard of living of any, it's like 500 million people came out of poverty as a result of that. And you know, when people say, "Oh, we should have never let the jobs go over there." I I don't think they really want to say, "Well, we shouldn't have let 500 million people out of poverty." uh you know it's the same people that that uh want to talk about aid in Africa and whatnot. So a lot of people benefited in China. Um but they're also hardworking people and and and we we talk a lot about meritocracies, right? And some of the same people that talk about meritocracies are anti-China. And so that that's a hard thing to square because if someone's willing to work twice as hard, you know, as you and you know, willing to study harder and and all that kind of stuff, are they do they not deserve a chance at a life like you have?

但那里有大量的勤奋的人。你知道，邓小平将资本主义引入中国政府，带来了历史上最大的生活水平提高，约有 5 亿人因此摆脱了贫困。当人们说“哦，我们本不该让工作岗位流失到那里”时，我不认为他们真正想说的是“我们本不该让 5 亿人脱离贫困”。你知道，那些谈论对非洲援助的人也是一样。所以中国很多人受益了。但他们也是勤奋的人，我们经常谈论“精英治理”（meritocracies），而一些谈论精英治理的人却反华。这很难调和，因为如果有人愿意比你努力工作两倍，愿意更努力学习等等，难道他们就不配拥有像你一样的生活吗？

贸易政策的后果：保护主义的弊端

I think the bigger complaint is that um we were naive in our trade policy and therefore we allowed huge advantages to flow to other areas and you know by the way as Dan says in his book at the same time we were actually moving to more of a regulatory state in the United States. So you know like our companies were getting less competitive at the same time we were helping their companies get more competitive and there was a lot of collateral damage in the United States during that period of time and I think right now people are saying okay we're moving into this age of AI but we have to get back to driving reform in the United States that levels that playing field a bit. Um and so you know you can't you can't undo the past. Um but I do think there's a recognition that um you know we need to do the things in order to incentivize US industry to compete more effectively in a lot of these different categories.

我认为更大的抱怨在于，我们的贸易政策过于天真，因此我们让巨大的优势流向了其他领域。顺便说一句，正如丹在书中指出的，与此同时，美国实际上正在转向一个更具监管性的国家。所以，我们的公司竞争力在下降，但我们却在帮助他们的公司变得更具竞争力，而且在此期间，美国遭受了大量的附带损害。我认为现在人们说，好吧，我们正在进入人工智能时代，但我们必须恢复美国的改革，以使竞争环境更加公平。所以，你知道，你无法挽回过去。但我确实认为，人们认识到我们需要采取措施，激励美国工业在许多不同领域更有效地竞争。

Um I think it is going I think it is going to be tricky though. You know, if you say, you know, you've got a hundred competitors in the EV industry in China, they're all willing to work on razor thin margins and they're willing to sell cars into Europe at $20,000 or $25,000. Today, as Farley said, there is not a US manufacturer sons perhaps Tesla that comes anywhere close to being able to compete in that way on a global basis.

但我认为这会很棘手。你知道，如果你说中国电动汽车行业有一百个竞争对手，他们都愿意在极薄的利润率下工作，并且愿意以 2 万或 2.5 万美元的价格将汽车卖到欧洲。今天，正如法利所说，除了特斯拉，没有一家美国制造商能够以这种方式在全球范围内与之竞争。

Correct. One thing I've been studying a bit is I I do think that the Chinese government's more has more scrutinous of monopolies. You know, I don't think that they I think they would consider it a negative if there were seven companies worth $3 trillion or whatever. Like I don't think they care about market cap. I think they care more about employment and global competitiveness, which would cause you to support low margin companies. Um, and and you know, they they get to choose to make that choice. I'm not judging it, but it would result in this outcome.

确实如此。我一直在研究的一件事是，我认为中国政府对垄断企业更加严格。我不认为他们会认为七家价值 3 万亿美元的公司是负面因素。我不认为他们关心市值。他们更关心就业和全球竞争力，这会促使他们支持低利润率的公司。他们可以选择这样做，我不是在评判，但这会带来这种结果。

You know, there's in addition to the Farley quote, the Mercedes CEO said, "We need a reality check." Um, when he was talking about Chinese EVs and then Stalantis, I guess is the new name, Stalantis, who who rolled up a bunch of other car companies. They said Chinese EVs are quote possibly the biggest risk facing his car maker and Tesla. Um and uh he criticized this is Carlos Tvarez. He publicly criticized EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles calling them a major trap for automakers.

除了法利的引述，梅赛德斯（Mercedes）的 CEO 也说：“我们需要一次‘现实检验’”。当他谈论中国电动汽车时，然后是 StellanTIS（Stellantis，我猜是新名字），它收购了一堆其他汽车公司。他们说中国电动汽车可能是对其汽车制造商和特斯拉来说最大的风险。卡洛斯·塔瓦雷斯（Carlos Tvarez）公开批评欧盟对中国电动汽车征收的关税，称其为汽车制造商的“主要陷阱”。

And this is you know you talk about what policy would fix things. I'll tell you what policy will make things worse. you know, you start protecting US industries by putting export tariffs on the most competitive products around the world, which I talked about earlier. Now, your consumers don't have access to those price points. And so, you're buying inferior goods at inflated prices, and that's going to lead to inflation and prosperity and standard of living living levels dropping in the US. So, there's a lot of variables. I I would say that's generally true.

你知道，你谈论什么政策能解决问题。我告诉你什么政策会让事情变得更糟。你知道，你开始通过对世界上最具竞争力的产品征收出口关税来保护美国产业，就像我之前谈到的那样。现在，你的消费者无法获得那些价格点，所以你正在以膨胀的价格购买劣质商品，这将导致美国通货膨胀，并使繁荣和生活水平下降。所以有很多变量，我总的来说认为这是正确的。

I think if there's a moment, you know, if there was a national strategy to improve competitiveness in an industry that had been, you know, um, uh, uh, let's just say had an unfair, uh, playing field for a period of time. Like I could see a national strategy, for example, we talked about pharmaceutical manufacturing, we talked about chip manufacturing, we talked about rare earths, where you would say, okay, we're going to actually impose a tariff because these other goods are flooding and it deprives us of the ability to build our own domestic industry. But I think we have to be very careful when you do that, Bill.

我认为，如果有一个时刻，如果有一个国家战略来提高一个在一段时间内处于不公平竞争环境下的行业的竞争力，比如我们谈论的制药制造、芯片制造、稀土，你会说，好吧，我们实际上要征收关税，因为其他商品正在涌入，剥夺了我们建立国内产业的能力。但比尔，我认为我们在那样做的时候必须非常小心。

To your point, we know that unfettered competition will lead to uh, you know, is going to lead to much better products, much lower prices. And when you start protecting these industries, what I worry about is you protect the regulatory grift and the the the the overly lawyering that Dan talks about in his book, right? We got to face up to this fact that we have to reform some of these uh, you know, basic things in the United States. And that's why you see companies like Tesla moving to Texas where those reforms are moving forward. And I think you know I think we are making progress on that. But I you know I think you there is a rationale uh for those critical national industries. But I generally agree with you that if we move to high levels of protection because we simply can't compete because it takes you know us uh you know 10 people uh in an auto plant to do what they do with one person in an auto plant. I think that's unsustainable.

正如你所说，我们知道不受限制的竞争将带来更好的产品和更低的价格。当我开始保护这些行业时，我担心的是你会保护了丹在书中谈到的监管寻租和过度诉讼。我们必须面对一个事实：我们必须改革美国的一些基本制度。这就是为什么像特斯拉这样的公司会搬到得克萨斯州，因为那里的改革正在推进。我认为我们正在取得进展。但我认为对于那些关键的民族工业是有合理的理由的。但我总的来说同意你的观点，如果我们采取高度保护主义，仅仅是因为我们无法竞争，因为一家美国汽车厂需要 10 个人才能完成一家中国工厂一个人能完成的工作，我认为这是不可持续的。

关于补贴和知识产权的辩论

You and I think we need to be careful with the rhetoric we throw around. So So I'll give you an example. So um if you read what comes out of the biggest talks, they say, "Well, everyone in China just steals things and the government subsidizes everything."

你我都需要谨慎对待我们使用的言辞。我举个例子。如果你读一下那些重要谈话中流出的内容，他们会说：“好吧，中国所有人都偷东西，政府补贴一切。”

So when I I brought that up with I brought up the subsidization with Stella Lee at BYD and she said she said, "If I'm getting all this government subsidy money, can you please find it and show it to me? We're we're a public company. come show me the money I'm getting from the government." She's just say I'm getting nothing. And um and and then you know, you look at the US like we give companies subsidies all the time to build factories. We've had EV credits for the past 10 years both at a state and a federal level. Um Intel's getting money from the US government. like I don't understand where we're say like like it's very unclear to me like what we're pointing at and accusing and why it doesn't isn't the same thing here.

所以当我向比亚迪的 Stella Lee 提出补贴问题时，她说：“如果我拿了这么多政府补贴，你能找到并给我看看吗？我们是一家上市公司。来给我看看我从政府那里拿到的钱。”她只是说我什么都没得到。然后你看看美国，我们一直给公司补贴来建工厂。过去十年，我们在州和联邦层面都有电动汽车抵免政策。英特尔（Intel）正在从美国政府那里获得资金。我不明白我们指责的是什么，以及为什么这里的情况就不是一回事。

And then lastly, you know, Elon's published all the Tesla patents. Okay. So, there's free IP for Ford and GM. And I would ask you with that free IP, if we gave Ford and GM subsidies, do you think they'd immediately be competitive with China?

最后，埃隆·马斯克（Elon）公布了所有特斯拉的专利。好的。所以，福特和通用汽车获得了免费的知识产权。我想问你，有了这些免费的知识产权，如果我们给福特和通用补贴，你认为他们会立即与中国竞争吗？

No, sir. Okay. And if I ask a hundred smart investors that question, what would they say?

不，先生。好的。如果我问一百个聪明的投资者这个问题，他们会怎么说？

I think they would agree with me.

我想他们会同意我的看法。

Yeah. So, so, so, so the thing we're accusing them of being the reason they're succeeding, if you flipped and gave that to the US companies, none of us have confidence that would work. So, that's what I'm saying. You just got to try and get as much information as you can, learn as much as you can. Um, so that you I I just want people to have a pragmatic view and an accurate view as they make decisions. I I did a deep dive on on your favorite product chat GBT $300 version deep research and on the 24 members of the select committee for the CCP and I think all but four have never been to China.

是。所以，我们指责他们成功的理由，如果我们把这些（补贴和自由 IP）给予美国公司，我们谁都没有信心那会奏效。所以，我的意思是，你只是要尽可能多地获取信息，学习尽可能多的东西。我只是希望人们在做决定时能有一个务实的、准确的观点。我对你最喜欢的 $300 版本的 ChatGPT 进行了深入研究，也对 CCP 特别委员会的 24 名成员进行了研究，我认为除了四个人之外，其他人都没去过中国。

Um, right. And the ones that went it was seven years ago. I'd just encourage them to go visit if they're going to sit there and have um such strong opinions. It'd be good if they were educated.

对。而那些去过的，也是七年前的事了。如果他们要带着如此强烈的观点在那里坐着，我鼓励他们去参观一下。如果他们要发表强烈的意见，最好是受过教育的。

I wouldn't want if you were putting together a committee inside of your corporation um that's going to be in charge of something, wouldn't you want the most educated people on that committee?

如果你在公司内部组建一个负责某事的委员会，你难道不想让委员会里的人是最有学识的吗？

I can already hear the criticism that Oh, yeah. Um, you know, you know, of course people would say, well, we don't expect the CEO of BYD to tell you the truth necessarily about government subsidies or or or things like this. Um, but here's the one thing I want to get across in, you know, kind of this pragmatist camp. We do have to be self-reflective, right? I mean, if we have this if we have this view that the only reason China's competitive or winning is because they're they're stealing or they're subsidized. I think what that view does is it allows us to delude ourselves into believing we don't need to get better ourselves.

我能想象到的批评是：“哦，是啊……当然，人们会说，我们不指望比亚迪的 CEO 一定会告诉我们政府补贴或其他事情的真相。”但在务实派阵营中，我希望传达的一点是：我们确实需要进行自我反思，对吧？如果我们的观点是，中国之所以具有竞争力或正在获胜，仅仅是因为他们在偷窃或获得补贴，我认为这种观点让我们自欺欺人，以为我们自己不需要变得更好。

Yeah. Like it's like if you're playing a competition and you know your your kids out there playing in a football game or a swimming race and they lose the race and they come back to you and they say well the only reason that person won was you know they cheated. You know like your advice I think is no you've got to get better yourself. We've got to get better. How can we get better?

是的。就像你在参加一场比赛，你的孩子在踢足球或游泳比赛中输了，他们回来告诉你，那个人赢的唯一原因就是他们作弊了。我认为你的建议是：不，你必须让自己变得更好。我们必须变得更好。我们怎样才能变得更好？

And I think that's why cultivating this balanced and realistic view of China, what's actually happening on the ground, how hard right, folks are working, what the level of innovation is, the fact that the United States is is is a diminishing part of their trade, of their GDP, etc. I think that should cause us to look a little bit inward about how the hell do we accelerate? How do we build more? How do we invest more? How do we, you know, get more globally competitive? Why does it cost us four to five times to build a fision reactor in this country? Why are we building no nuclear reactors in this country?

我认为这就是为什么培养一种平衡和现实的中国观很重要——地面上实际发生了什么，人们工作有多努力，创新水平如何，以及美国占他们贸易和 GDP 的比例正在下降的事实。我认为这应该促使我们向内看一看：我们到底该如何加速？如何建造更多？如何投入更多？如何变得更具全球竞争力？为什么我们国家建造一个反应堆要贵四到五倍？为什么我们国家不建造任何核反应堆？

And so the good news is this. I feel like there's a lot of momentum under this administration that was building before this administration around investing in America, getting more globally competitive, right? A lot of people want to build things here again, you know, and and you got you have somebody like Jensen Huang who says both can be true. We need to sell H20s and B30s into China. We need to stay relevant in their ecosystem, but at the same time, we need to build plants in Arizona. We need to rehabilitate and invest aggressively in our own domestic chip program. Those things can be simultaneously true. Um, and it it it's interesting that all of those CEOs who spend the most time competing in China, you know, they all fall in that pragmatist realist camp. Y um you know in the center about you know the United States needs to get serious about the work that it needs to do if it wants to remain globally competitive.

好消息是：我感觉本届政府下，围绕“投资美国”、“提高全球竞争力”的势头在持续，这在政府换届前就开始积累了，对吧？很多人想再次在这里建东西。你也有像黄仁勋这样的人，他说两件事可以同时成立：我们需要向中国销售 H20 和 B30 芯片，我们需要在中国生态系统中保持相关性；但同时，我们也需要在亚利桑那州建厂，需要积极恢复和投资我们自己的国内芯片计划。这些事情可以同时存在。有趣的是，那些花最多时间在中国竞争的 CEO 们，都属于务实、现实的中间派。他们都认为美国需要认真对待自己需要做的工作，如果想保持全球竞争力的话。

AI 领域的竞争与中国的开放模型

With that said, Bill, can we shift for a second? I want to I want to, you know, look at this through the lens of kind of just what's going on in AI, you know, um I know you spent a bunch of time over there looking at the key players on the model side, on the, you know, thinking about the chip side, etc. Um so maybe just round out that other conversation and then shift there.

比尔，说了这些，我们能换个话题吗？我想通过人工智能领域的视角来看待这个问题。我知道你在那里花了很多时间研究模型领域的主要参与者，以及芯片方面的情况。所以也许我们可以总结一下刚才的对话，然后转向那里。

Yeah. So so um one thing one thing to note that um that isn't in the Dan Wing book but I I think that we can infer from it the government every 5 years publishes this five-year plan. Um the last one was the 14th and I think the next one will be coming out soon. I would encourage everyone to read that because that's where they tell the provinces what's important to work on and that historically has led to these areas where they're investing heavily and they might make a mistake in what they say to focus on but when they've gotten it right it's led to a lot of global competitiveness. So I would watch that but in the in the last one in the 14th they literally talked about open source. Um, and so, you know, I I'll put a link in I found a document that covers all the history of Chinese open source, but it goes back 20 years. This isn't an overnight thing. Um, and our government recently said they were pro open source in this new AI executive order, but but but this was kind of pushed out to the provinces.

是的。丹·王的书中没有提到的一件事是，政府每五年会发布一个五年规划。上一个规划是第十四个，我认为下一个很快就会出来。我鼓励大家阅读，因为那里面告诉各省哪些工作很重要。历史上，这导致了他们大量投资的领域，他们可能在选择关注点上犯错，但当他们做对时，就带来了巨大的全球竞争力。所以我建议关注这一点。在第十四个五年规划中，他们明确提到了开源。我找到了一个涵盖中国开源历史的文件，可以放个链接，但这有 20 年的历史了，不是一蹴而就的。我们政府最近在新的 AI 行政命令中表示支持开源，但（开源的概念）实际上是推向各省的。

And so, two two things I would say about the AI market there. First of all, no one's particularly concerned about there being a a monopolist because there's so many open models. So there's in general, I think from the entrepreneurs perspective, um a more relaxed, you know, opinion because they can work on products and they can take in all these different models. I think I think Deep Seek has the most kind of intellectual brand because of how that arrived and and and almost the the the national pride that came along with it. Um Quinn um is a really important player mainly because Alibaba leads in the cloud market over there. They're about as you you may you and your team may know more of these stats than me Brad but I think they're like a 70% player in the cloud market and so that just gives them a natural place to deliver models from that makes them important and then on the consumer side you know bite dance seems to be the company to watch on anything consumer and they already have an app if someone said whose app is closest to open ais in China it's already an app from bite dance um that's out there people on the watch list.

关于那里的 AI 市场，我想说两点。首先，由于有如此多的开源模型，没有人特别担心会出现垄断。从企业家的角度来看，他们的态度普遍比较放松，因为他们可以基于所有这些不同的模型来开发产品。我认为 DeepSeek 因其出现的方式，以及随之而来的民族自豪感，拥有最多的“智力品牌”。“清华智谱”（Quinn，此处应指 Zhipu AI，或指其模型）是一个非常重要的参与者，主要是因为阿里巴巴在那里主导云市场。布拉德，你和你的团队可能比我更了解这些统计数据，但我认为他们在云市场的占有率约为 70%，这为他们提供了交付模型的天然平台，使他们变得重要。在消费者方面，字节跳动似乎是值得关注的公司，他们已经有了一个应用，如果有人问哪个应用最接近 OpenAI 在中国的能力，那就是字节跳动已经上线的应用。

People are very curious if 10 cent's going to do something. You know, obviously they we chat still extremely um important in China and so that's a great asset if they were to bring something but they haven't been particularly aggressive and then Xiaomi because of Le Jun everybody wonders what he might do and you know owning the phone and that big a market share might give you some advantages and we've talked about that with the US players.

人们非常好奇腾讯（10 Cent）会做什么。你知道，微信在中国仍然极其重要，所以如果他们推出什么，那将是一项巨大的资产，但他们一直没有特别积极。然后是小米，因为有雷军，每个人都在想他可能会做什么，拥有手机和那么大的市场份额可能会给你带来一些优势，我们已经和美国玩家讨论过这一点了。

So that's kind of that's what I would say is the state of affairs over there on when it comes to AI on the model layer. Um is do you think there's an acknowledgment or a belief uh that they're basically they have the tools they have the chips you know with Huawei etc to be competitive? Like is there a sense in China that you know Quen Code is going to be competitive with Claude Code? Um, you know, we know they're all open source. Do you think there is a sense that they all stay at the frontier?

这就是我对那里的 AI 模型层现状的看法。你认为他们是否承认或相信他们拥有工具、拥有芯片（比如华为的芯片）来保持竞争力？在中国，是否有一种感觉，你知道，智谱 AI 的模型能与 Claude 模型竞争吗？你知道，我们知道它们都是开源的。你认为他们都停留在前沿水平吗？

Like I had that sense before I went just because of the number of competitive open source models and the way they can trade train each other. Did you just have a much more natural environment to have this kind of hyper competition that we talked about in EVs or solar? Like having that many open source providers gives you that I would say even maybe more because of the way the models can help one another. At least in the EV case like you can't take someone else's EV and make yours better, but here you can.

在我去之前，我就有这种感觉，因为有大量竞争性的开源模型，以及它们可以互相“训练”的方式。你那里是否有一个更自然的生态环境来产生我们在电动汽车或太阳能领域谈到的那种超强竞争？拥有这么多开源提供商是否赋予了你这种优势？我甚至可以说更多，因为模型可以互相帮助。至少在电动汽车的例子中，你不能拿别人的电动汽车来改进自己的，但在 AI 领域你可以。

Can we talk about that? Ju just double click on this. you know, obviously we saw o open AAI open source, you know, uh a model a few weeks back. Now we have comments this week out of Elon. Uh they're they're getting back to more aggressively open sourcing. Um, you've obviously got Meta already, uh, uh, you know, with Llama out there on the open source front. And I saw you had a tweet yesterday, maybe, Bill, just on you were surprised that Google had not taken a more aggressive position with respect to open sourcing Gemini. Um, do you think they will? Why do you think they haven't? And why do you think it would be the right thing for them to do that?

我们可以谈谈这个吗？我再深入一点。显然，我们看到 OpenAI 几周前开源了一个模型。这周埃隆（马斯克）也发表了评论，他们正重新更积极地采取开源策略。你显然看到 Meta 已经发布了 Llama 也在开源阵营。我昨天还看到你发了条推文，比尔，你对谷歌没有在 Gemini 的开源问题上采取更积极的立场表示惊讶。你认为他们会这样做吗？你认为他们为什么没有这样做？你为什么认为他们应该这样做？

公开公司的保守与初创的激进

Well, I I had some replies to that tweet to get into this, but this goes back to where you started the podcast. I don't think public companies understand or I don't think they've internalized um and and really come to terms with the fact that the private markets are willing to bet so aggressively on these new players and I you know we're talking about AI today but this could be true of any new disruption in the future. When when I was going through the the Uber lift wars and you know we'd be in board meetings and look at these burn rates and all this money we're spending. You talk about whether or not to raise another round and certainly thought about doing what Sam did and trying to talk capital out of the market which never seems to work. Um, but you get frustrated with that game and you want to, you know, but but you're dealing with business decisions that you would never see in another industry.

嗯，我回复了那条推文，这又回到了你开始播客时提到的观点。我不认为上市公司理解，或者说他们没有真正意识到一个事实：私人市场愿意如此积极地押注于这些新玩家。我们今天谈论的是人工智能，但这可能适用于未来任何新的颠覆性技术。当我在经历优步和 Lyft 的竞争时，我们在董事会会议上看着这些烧钱速度和花费的资金，讨论是否要再融资一轮，当然也考虑过像山姆（Sam Altman）那样试图从市场中筹集资金，但这似乎从来没有奏效过。但你会对这种游戏感到沮丧，你想要……你正在处理其他行业中绝不会出现的商业决策。

And so getting back to the question you asked, you know, I just don't know like if everything's at stake for Google, should they be willing to lose five or 10 billion dollars? Because the startup that's attacking their space is willing to lose that amount of money. And I think it's it's it's an ironic situation we're in where the private markets and the startups are willing to be more aggressive perhaps and more risk-seeking than the public incumbents are.

回到你问的问题，我只是不明白，如果对谷歌来说一切都岌岌可危，他们是否应该愿意损失五六十亿美元？因为攻击他们领域的初创公司愿意损失这么多钱。我认为我们正处于一个讽刺的境地：私人市场和初创公司比上市公司更愿意采取激进和风险偏好的立场。

And I think, you know, our friend Rich Barton took a lot of heat at Zillow when he when he chased Open Door, but he was faced with a situation where a private company was claiming it was going to out innovate him and disrupt his game and and some of Wall Street had come to believe that. And so he engaged and he played that game on the field. Now, that eventually turned out to not be true. Um and and maybe if he hadn't engaged competitively with Open Door, maybe they wouldn't have have kind of tripped and fallen. But but it was probably the right thing to do. And I don't think a lot of public companies think that way. Now Google historically when it came to AWS, open sourced Kubernetes and went after them. When it came to Apple, they open sourced Android. And certainly some of their their lower models are uh open sourced and competitive on open router, but maybe they should be more aggressive even still because of what's at stake. That was that was my point.

我认为，我们的朋友里奇·巴顿（Rich Barton）在 Zillow 追击 OpenDoor 时受到了很多抨击，但他面临的情况是，一家私营公司声称要超越其创新并颠覆其游戏，而且华尔街的一些人也相信了这一点。所以他参与了，并在场上玩了这个游戏。虽然最终事实证明并非如此，但也许如果他没有与 OpenDoor 竞争，他们就不会摔倒。但这可能是正确的做法。我认为很多上市公司不会这样想。回想起来，谷歌在面对 AWS 时，开源了 Kubernetes 并与之竞争。在面对苹果时，他们开源了安卓（Android）。当然，他们的一些低端模型也是开源的，并且在开源路由器上具有竞争力，但鉴于事态的严重性，也许他们应该更加积极。这就是我的观点。

中国的风险投资生态和外资的撤离

Okay, shifting back real quick and you know we'll we'll round up here on China. Um you know the VC market in China, we just rewind the clock. You know, not that long ago, Bill. Um and you know there was a lot of US enthusiasm. There were a lot of US firms investing directly in China. Um right from SEOA to GGV. A lot of those firms either shut down or spun off their operations uh you know in China. Benchmark has taken a lot of you know heat for doing an investment manis that you know I've I I've read benchmark explained really isn't even you know based in China. what do you see, you know, when you were there, do you see a lot of US investors actively investing on the venture side in China? And then what is the Chinese venture ecosystem look like?

好的，我们快速回到中国话题，准备总结一下。比尔，我们回溯一下中国的风投市场，就在不久前，那里还有很多美国的热情，很多美国公司直接投资中国，从红杉（Sequoia）到纪源资本（GGV）。很多这样的公司要么关闭，要么剥离了在中国的业务。Benchmark 因为一项投资而受到了很多批评，而 Benchmark 解释说它甚至不以中国为基地。你这次去那里看到了什么？你看到很多美国投资者在风险投资领域积极投资中国吗？中国的风险投资生态系统看起来怎么样？

So, a couple different things. So, first of all, um there's a real lack of westerners. For all my trips, this was the the fewest westerners that I've ever seen. And the high-end hotels and the high-end restaurants were fairly empty. Um and I think that it just has to do with the thawing of the relationship. um that's caused less travel from Westerners.

有几点不同。首先，西方人确实很少。在我所有的旅程中，这次看到的西方人是最少的。高端酒店和高端餐厅都相当冷清。我想这与关系的解冻有关，导致西方人出行减少了。

Um the VC market um is in a bit of a lull because when when these policies all changed and when you know the Jack Maw thing happened, when DD got pulled back from the US markets, when the for-profit education companies got taken out and when uh you know WeChat went I mean 10-cent went flat for a couple years because of games reforms. All those things um took a lot of air out of the system and caused a lot of people to reconsider.

风险投资市场正处于低迷时期，因为当所有这些政策改变时，当你知道马云（Jack Ma）的事情发生时，当滴滴（DD）从美国市场撤回时，当营利性教育公司被清退，以及当微信……我的意思是，腾讯因为游戏改革而停滞了几年时，所有这些都从体系中抽走了很多空气，让很多人重新考虑。

And then you also had and I don't even know if this was more led by the US government or the China government. You had the splitting of the venture capital firms. Sequoia split in half. GGV split in half and and so there are much fewer western dollars available to invest in China.

然后你还有——我甚至不知道这是更多地由美国政府还是中国政府主导——风险投资公司的分裂。红杉一分为二，GGV 一分为二。因此，可用于投资中国的西方资金大大减少了。

And so you know there are a few firms that have stayed. you know, Neil Shin at Hong Sean had raised a ton of money right before all this happened. He's very active, has a huge staff of people. um Anna Fang and and Zen Fund which is a a angel group are very active and IDG is highly present and has been active but that's only three firms you know and compared to where things were six years ago when every one of our um competitors in the venture industry were making an annual trip it's it's kind of night and day um and then there's not that many um R&B dollars available to the venture market.

所以，有几家公司留了下来。你知道，高瓴资本（Hillhouse Capital）的沈南鹏（Neil Shen）在所有这些事情发生之前刚筹集了大量资金，他非常活跃，拥有一大批员工。安娜·方（Anna Fang）和她的天使投资团体 ZhenFund 非常活跃，IDG 也非常活跃，但那只是三家公司。与六年前相比，当时我们风险投资行业的所有竞争对手都在进行年度访问，现在简直是天壤之别。而且，风险投资市场上的人民币资金也不多。

A lot of the you don't have the foundations in and university endowments that you do here and the billionaires um that have made wealth typically are looking to diversify offshore and so you just don't have a lot of R&B dollars seeking a home and now you have the provinces entering the investment space which is an uncomfortable reality for some of the VCs. They're ask I hear they're asking for terms that you and I would consider um non-starters, you know. Um and so that's it's all a little bit messy.

你没有这里的基金会和大学捐赠基金的资金来源，而那些赚到财富的亿万富翁通常希望将资产多元化到海外，所以你没有太多人民币资金在寻找去处。现在，各省也进入了投资领域，这对一些 VC 来说是一个令人不舒服的现实。我听说他们提出的条款，你我都会认为那是“不予考虑”的。所以一切都有点混乱。

Um it's it's funny because it's simultaneously with some of these markets, EVs, uh autonomous, uh robotics where they're where the country is doing extremely well. So, I found those things off a little bit and it's very everyone's very aware that if the government decides um your company is doing something that's not in the best interest of the uh citizenry that that's going to get corrected. And so there's a phrase, I don't know if it was in Dan's book or I read somewhere else called don't be the tallest tree. That's a problem for you.

很有趣的是，这与电动汽车、自动驾驶、机器人技术等市场是同步发生的，在这些领域，这个国家表现得非常出色。所以，我对此感到有点困惑，而且每个人都非常清楚，如果政府决定你的公司正在做的事情不符合公民的最佳利益，那就会被纠正。所以有一句话，我不知道是不是在丹的书里，叫做“不要做最高的树”，这对你来说是个问题。

Yeah, exactly.

是的，正是如此。

创业活动的持续与地方活力

Um yeah is in in that regard do you think you know that's what I was I was wondering you know there seems to be a ton of entrepreneurial activity despite the fact that you know VCs have retreated that you have companies that are not going public and have been shut down you have entrepreneurs that have gone missing it doesn't really seem to have diminished you you know the activity around uh you know around AI high as we were talking about clearly or or startups or entrepreneurism and and in fact a lot of the locals heavily dispute that Financial Times graph that was going around about the number of startups. They said it just mismeasured the whole thing and so no I I don't sense that there's any lack of enthusiasm from entrepreneurs and towns like Shenzhen um where where DJI and BYD and Huawei are all located. I mean that town is a new young 20 million people highly energetic you know town with lots of stuff happening you know lots of stuff.

嗯，在这方面，你是否认为……我当时就在想，尽管风险投资有所撤退，公司没有上市甚至被关闭，企业家也失踪了，但这似乎并没有减少围绕人工智能初创企业或创业精神的活跃度。事实上，很多当地人强烈反对《金融时报》流传的关于初创企业数量的图表，他们说那完全是误测。所以我没有感觉到像深圳这样的城市，那里是大疆（DJI）、比亚迪和华为的所在地，创业者的热情有任何减弱。这座城市有 2000 万人口，年轻、充满活力，有很多事情正在发生。

支付习惯的革新与人才引进政策

You said something to me um well before before we wrapped is there anything else anything else that we we didn't cover that you want to you want to hit on.

在你结束之前，你对我说了些什么，还有没有我们没有涵盖的、你想强调的重点？

There's two there's two things I would hit on you know you talked about innovation one thing one thing that that you notice very quickly as a westerner is no one takes credit cards. They used to like the last time I went, but it's almost 100% uh WeChat Pay and Alip Pay. And if you can't get those to work on your phone, you're screwed, man. You can't pay for anything. Um what's a what's what's the government's position on crypto?

我有两点想强调。你谈到了创新，一个你作为西方人很快注意到的现象是，没有人使用信用卡。我上次去的时候还有人使用，但现在几乎 100% 是微信支付和支付宝。如果你的手机上不能用这些支付，你就完蛋了，什么都付不了。政府对加密货币的立场是什么？

I don't know the answer to that question. Okay. I don't. But but because they've been using these apps for so long, um you've started to see incremental innovation around that. So, at most restaurants you go to, not the very high-end ones, there's a QR code on your table. That QR code not only represents the restaurant, but it represents the table. And you can order from that, you can pay from that. Like, like, so if you are done eating and want to pay and leave, you just scan and pay and go. You walk right out. And um, you know, we we're far away from that in the US, that amount of of automation around payment.

我不知道那个问题的答案。但是，因为他们使用这些应用已经很久了，所以你开始看到围绕这些应用产生的渐进式创新。在大多数餐馆，不是最高端的那些，你的桌子上有一个二维码。这个二维码不仅代表餐厅，还代表桌子。你可以从那里点餐、付款。所以，如果你吃完了想付钱走人，你只需扫描付款然后离开。我们在美国在支付自动化方面离这种程度还很远。

Um, and it's just interesting. and and that goes from, you know, the high-end hotel and restaurant will take WeChat pay and the street vendor will take it, right? It's it's it's universal. So, that's one thing. The the other thing that I would just mention, um, very recently, China announced something called the K visa.

这很有趣。从高端酒店和餐厅接受微信支付，到街边小贩也接受，它非常普及。这是第一点。我想提到的第二点是，中国最近宣布了一种叫做“K 签证”的政策。

And one of the um one of the things that's happened recently because of I'd say an increased um agitation between the two countries is there have been a number of very recent policies in America that are impacting skilled immigration especially at the university level. And I did hear stories over there of groups of 50 or 100 PhD students who had been admitted into a university and were now being told they can't attend. And you and I and everyone have talked about skilled immigration and how that's been kept flat in the US.

由于两国之间日益紧张的关系，最近发生了一些事情：美国出台了一系列影响技术移民，尤其是在大学层面移民的最新政策。我听说那里有 50 人或 100 名博士生，他们已被大学录取，但现在却被告知不能入学。你我都谈论过技术移民，以及它在美国如何停滞不前。

Um and now you know at least with regard to China, we're starting to put up blockers. And on top of that, you've seen these other charts where like 50% of the AI researchers in America are Chinese. And so that that's something that's super interesting to watch. And this K visa thing, which they've never done before, says if you are studying um technology, you know, I don't know the exact rules, you don't even have to have a job. So this isn't like a in the US you need a you're welcome to come. They're going to give you a visa. So, China's basically inviting everyone to come to their university systems from around the globe. I don't know how successful they'll be. I don't know if Europeans will go there. Um, but it's an interesting thing to see.

现在，至少就中国而言，我们开始设置障碍。除此之外，你还看到其他图表显示，美国大约 50% 的 AI 研究人员是中国人。所以这是非常值得关注的。而这个 K 签证，他们以前从未这样做过，它说如果你在学习技术——我不知道确切的规定——你甚至不需要有工作。这不像在美国，你需要……我们欢迎你来，他们会给你签证。所以，中国基本上是在邀请全球所有人来他们的大学系统。我不知道他们会多么成功。我不知道欧洲人是否会去。但这确实是一个值得关注的现象。

结论：自我反思与加速竞争

Again, it's just a reminder to me like I I continue to think that uh the US is in an incredible position on a global basis, an incredible position visa v China, but decisions matter. And, you know, we talked about stapling a green card to every, you know, uh, every diploma as, uh, you know, the the president did as part of the the the the presidential race. Um, and certainly I think there's ample opportunity, uh, for upside to accelerate, to attract, to build in the US. And I hope that one of the takeaways of this conversation, the many conversations we ought to have, and it's why I think being overly dogmatic leads us astray, is we got to reflect on the things that we can be doing better to run a faster race ourselves, right?

这对我来说又是一个提醒：我仍然认为，美国在全球范围内，相对于中国，处于一个不可思议的地位，但决策至关重要。你知道，我们谈到了像总统竞选期间提出的，将绿卡钉在每一张文凭上。我确实认为美国有充足的机会加速、吸引人才、加大建设力度。我希望这次谈话，以及我们应该进行的许多谈话，其要点之一是——这也是我认为过于教条主义会使我们走弯路的原因——我们必须反思我们可以做些什么来跑得更快，对吧？

And I've heard you say this before, you know, the old quote from the Godfather, never hate your enemy enemies. You know, it clouds it affects your judgment. Yep. And I think there's a lot of that going on in Silicon Valley and other places that um you know we're going to be a lot better off if we're very pragmatic about uh there's no slowing down in China. They're going to be there in AI. They're going to build chips at Huawei. They're going to build models at Deepseek. And the the way to beat them is not to you you know try to cut them off at the knees. We don't need to make it easy on them. But the United States needs to accelerate our race. And I think by if if we focus too much on how do we slow down China, we take the eye off the ball on how to accelerate our own race. So it's fun spending one of these just digging deep on a on a particular topic. It sounds like an incredible trip.

我听你以前也说过，你知道，教父里有句老话：“永远不要憎恨你的敌人。”你知道，这会影响你的判断。是的。我认为硅谷和其他地方有很多这种情况，如果我们对中国没有放缓感到非常务实，我们会好得多。他们在人工智能领域会存在。他们会在华为制造芯片。他们会在 DeepSeek 建立模型。打败他们的方法不是试图扼杀他们。我们不需要让他们日子好过，但美国需要加速我们的竞赛。我认为，如果我们过度关注如何减缓中国的发展，就会分散我们加速自身发展的注意力。所以花时间深入挖掘一个特定主题很有趣。听起来你这次旅行非常精彩。

Yeah. And and I would just echo what you said like like on especially just on learning like my my main point to anyone that's interested in this topic would be just make sure you have the exact right information as you then go to make decisions especially around policy. Um and you know talk read read what these uh global car CEOs are telling you. They've been over there. They're seeing it with their own eyes. they they don't they don't have a reason to be as candid as they're being necessarily, but they are. Um, and then read Dan Wang's book. I think it's fabulous. Like Tyler Cowan said it might be one it might be the best book of the year. It's very well written and and a joy to read and I would uh encourage everyone to go pick it up. It's called Breakneck. I think it's out now today.

是的，我赞同你说的，尤其是在学习方面。我对所有对这个话题感兴趣的人的要点是：确保你在做决策，尤其是在政策方面时，拥有准确的信息。阅读那些全球汽车 CEO 告诉你什么。他们去过那里，他们亲眼所见，他们不一定有那么坦诚的理由，但他们确实很坦诚。然后阅读丹·王的这本书。我认为它很棒。泰勒·考恩（Tyler Cowen）说它可能是年度最佳书籍之一。它写得非常好，读起来很愉快，我鼓励每个人都去买一本，书名叫《Breakneck》，我想它今天已经上市了。

No, you literally can go on chat GBT and just ask it, you know, uh what your favorite CEO, you know, what's Jensen Wang think about, uh the level of competition in China, what's Tim Cook think, what's Elon Musk think. Um the reality is the people who spend the most chi time on the ground in China have the most respect for, you know, the innate uh you know, capabilities and ongoing competition that we're going to see with China. And you know and and I thought that Dan had a really balanced view at the end which is you know we shouldn't go out of our way to make it really easy on China but at the same time we got to engage. We got to be you know pragmatic. We can't stick our head in the sand and we have to know that we got to reform ourselves. We got to run a faster race ourselves. Bill, it's great seeing you.

不，你完全可以打开 ChatGPT 问它，你最喜欢的 CEO，比如黄仁勋、蒂姆·库克、埃隆·马斯克对中国的竞争水平有什么看法。现实情况是，那些在中国地面上花费时间最多的人，对我们即将看到的中国的内在能力和持续的竞争给予最高的尊重。我想丹在最后有一个非常平衡的观点：我们不应该特意让中国过得太舒服，但同时我们必须接触、保持务实，我们不能把头埋在沙子里，我们必须知道我们必须改革自己，我们必须跑得更快。比尔，很高兴见到你。

I'm glad we're kind of getting back in the swing of things and uh look forward to uh continuing the conversation.

我很高兴我们又恢复了正常的节奏，并期待着继续我们的对话。

As a reminder to everybody, just our opinions, not investment advice.

提醒大家，这只是我们的观点，不构成投资建议。