对话阶段 1
[嘉宾]: 它是目前最大的赢家之一。网络安全领域的老爹。
Original English
[Speaker A]: It's one of the biggest winners right now. The big daddy of the cyber security space.
[主持人]: Palo Alto Networks 是该领域的佼佼者。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Palo Alto Networks is an outer performer in the space.
[嘉宾]: 首席执行官内什·奥罗拉。
Original English
[Speaker A]: CEO Nesh Aurora.
[主持人]: 这对您来说可能是新闻,但人类长期以来一直在编写糟糕的代码。
Original English
[Speaker B]: This might come as news to you, but humans have been writing bad code for a very long time.
[嘉宾]: 我在 Google 工作了 10 年,你知道 Google 搜索正在使信息民主化。如果你以这个类比来思考人工智能正在做什么,就会发现人工智能正在使智能民主化。金钱是一种追踪的方式。这不是目标。您担任 Palo Alto Networks 首席执行官已有八年了。
Original English
[Speaker A]: I spent 10 years at Google and you know Google search was democratizing information. If you take that analogy and think about what AI is doing, AI is democratizing intelligence. Money is a way to keep track. It's not the goal. You've been the CEO of Palo Alto Networks for eight years.
[主持人]: 本周即将迎来八周年纪念日。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Coming up on eight years this week.
[嘉宾]: 八年了。如果我没记错的话,我想当你开始的时候,它的市值是 170 亿美元。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Eight years. And I think when you started it was $17 billion market cap if I remember correctly.
[主持人]: 今天早上我检查了它是 2380 亿,如果你听我们昨天说的,现在你已经超过了 100。你更有可能实际上是 10 倍。所以前 10 倍实际上要困难得多。所以你正在走向一万亿美元
Original English
[Speaker B]: And this morning I checked it's 238 billion which if you listen to what we said yesterday now that you passed 100. You're more likely to actually 10x. So the first 10x was actually much much harder. So you're on your way to a trillion dollars
[嘉宾]: 从你的嘴到上帝的耳朵。
Original English
[Speaker A]: from your mouth to God's ears.
[主持人]: 我想你是。
Original English
[Speaker B]: I think you are.
[嘉宾]: 好的。好的。因此,让我们双击您所看到的内容,因为您处于一个非常有趣的位置来查看所有内容。你会看到人工智能的诞生。也许您已经见证了 SAS 的兴衰。所有的模特都会跟你说话。你曾是其中之一
Original English
[Speaker A]: Okay. Okay. So, let's just double click into what you see because you are sort of in a really interesting position to see all of it. You see the birth of AI. Maybe you you've seen the rise and fall of SAS. All the models talk to you. You were one of
[主持人]: 又上涨了吧?
Original English
[Speaker B]: the rise again, right?
[嘉宾]: 再次上涨。呃,你是第一个也是少数接触神话的人之一。那么,让我按下按钮。去内什吧。开始。
Original English
[Speaker A]: The rise again. Uh you were one of the first and the few that got access to mythos. So, just let me just push the button. Go Nesh. Start.
[主持人]: 嗯,首先,谢谢你邀请我来到这里。我认为人工智能是令人兴奋的。我认为看到过去 24 个月内发生的所有事情令人兴奋。嗯,我认为莎拉刚刚说过,他们对将需要大量计算的预期是正确的。所以所有这些事情都在发生。但你可以看到,你知道,我们上次简要讨论过这个概念,即人工智能真正使智能民主化。这意味着我有 250 名营销人员。它们产生不同形式的输出。现在我可以让 250 人的 90% 的输出保持一致。我有 5,000 名员工与客户交谈。我的失败模式是,当 5,000 个人做不同的事情时,人们会说:“我想和 Joe 谈谈,因为他知道如何解决问题,而 Jim 不知道。”所以现在你可以让 5,000 个人在与对方的互动中表现得几乎一致。所以我认为这将对我们的业务运营方式产生巨大影响。它将改变整个景观。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Well, uh first of all, thank you for having me here. I think AI is exciting. I think it's exciting to see all the stuff that's gone down in the last possibly 24 months. Um I think Sarah just said it, they were right in anticipating the huge amount of compute that was going to be needed. So all that stuff's going on. But you can see that, you know, there's this notion which we talked about briefly last time that AI is really democratizing intelligence. What that means is I have 250 people in marketing. They produce varied forms of output. Now I can get 90% of the output to be consistent across those 250 people. I have 5,000 people who talk to customers. There's my my failure mode is when 5,000 people do different things where people say, "I want to talk to Joe because he knows how to solve the problem and Jim doesn't." So now you can get 5,000 people to act almost consistently in their interactions with people on the other side. So I think it's going to have a phenomenal impact to how we run businesses, how we operate. It's going to change the entire landscape.
[嘉宾]: 在这种情况下,你谈到了神话,我知道戴夫对此非常感兴趣。 Mthos 向我们展示了过去 50 年来人类编写的所有糟糕代码都可以通过人工智能进行评估,并且可以显示出漏洞。我们测试了 6 周,在 6 周内我们发现了我们需要 5 到 7 年才能完成的事情。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Now in that context, you touched upon mythos and I know Dave has been very involved with this. Mthos has shown us that all the bad code that humans have written over the last 50 years can be assessed by AI and shown uh the vulnerabilities can be shown. We tested for 6 weeks and in 6 weeks we found what would have taken us 5 to 7 years.
[主持人]: 哇。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Wow.
[嘉宾]: 这句话再说一遍。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Say that one more time.
[主持人]: 我们在 6 周内发现了通常需要 5 到 7 年才能发现的漏洞。因此,这些漏洞是您自己的代码库中或您的客户自己的代码中的漏洞。哦哇。
Original English
[Speaker B]: In 6 weeks we found vulnerabilities which would have normally taken us 5 to seven years to find. So Methos these are vulnerabilities where these are vulnerabilities in your own codebase or in your customer in your own code. Oh wow.
[嘉宾]: 所以神话并没有被超卖。这是合法的。人工智能评估代码漏洞的能力是真实存在的。不仅如此,如果你把它置于超级模式,这是持久的思考,所以它会不断尝试直到得到答案,你实际上可以菊花链漏洞,即找到一条新的攻击路径进入你的漏洞。现在,我们为自己是测试我们代码的公司中名列前茅的而感到自豪,因为我们从事网络安全业务。如果你将这一点与世界上所有自己编写代码的公司或 1000 万开发人员编写代码相结合,那么这个东西将会找到我们需要 10 年才能找到的东西。
Original English
[Speaker A]: So Mythos was not oversold. It was legit. The capabilities of AI in being able to assess vulnerabilities in code are real. Not just that, if you put it on ultra mode, which is persistent thinking, so it keeps trying until it gets an answer, you can actually daisy chain vulnerabilities, i.e. finding a new attack path into your into your vulnerabilities. Now, we pride ourselves as a top percentile of companies that test our code because we're in the cyber security business. If you take that and compound that across all the companies that exist in the world that write their own code or the 10 million developers write code, this thing is going to find stuff which would have taken us 10 years to find.
[主持人]: 花了多少钱?比如你有跟踪代币成本吗?是一亿美元、一千万美元吗?
Original English
[Speaker B]: How much did it cost? Like did you track the token cost? Was it $100 million, $10 million?
[嘉宾]: 不,只有几百万。但正如莎拉所说,成本曲线已经会下降。 OpenAI 拥有一个更便宜、更一致的模型。你知道,Anthropy 还推出了其他模型。你买你买炒作。
Original English
[Speaker A]: No, it was in the low millions. But again, the cost as Sarah said, the cost curve is going to come down already. OpenAI has got a model which is cheaper, more consistent. You know, Anthropy's come out with other models. You buy You buy the hype.
[主持人]: 这不是炒作。这是真的。
Original English
[Speaker B]: It's not hype. It's true.
[嘉宾]: 那是
Original English
[Speaker A]: That's
[主持人]: 的能力。能力是真实的。
Original English
[Speaker B]: the capabilities. The capabilities are real.
[嘉宾]: 你知道这些能力是真实的。
Original English
[Speaker A]: You know that the capabilities are true.
[主持人]: 是的。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Yes.
[嘉宾]: 我的意思是,您看到 IBM 宣布了一个耗资 50 亿美元的项目来修复开源。这是最大的问题。
Original English
[Speaker A]: I mean, you saw IBM announced a project for $5 billion to fix open source. That's the biggest problem.
[主持人]: 如果克劳德没有克制,他们把这件事公之于众,会发生什么?您认为它会像真正的攻击媒介一样并在公司中造成混乱吗?我认为距离该产品在野外可用(如果还没有的话),我们还需要 3 个月的时间。
Original English
[Speaker B]: What would have happened if Claude didn't have the restraint and they put it out in the public? Do you think it would have been like a real attack vector and caused chaos in corporations? I think u we're 3 months away if not already there from this being available in the wild.
[嘉宾]: 好的。开源。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Okay. Open source.
[主持人]: 是的。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Yeah.
[嘉宾]: 仅仅3个月。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Just 3 months.
[主持人]: 是的。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Yeah.
[嘉宾]: 是的。因为我的意思是我们一直在说大约还需要 6 个月的时间才能提供神话级别的功能
Original English
[Speaker A]: Yeah. Cuz I mean we've been saying that it's roughly 6 months away before Mythos level capabilities are available
[主持人]: 在中国模式中,你知道,开放模式,等等。
Original English
[Speaker B]: in Chinese models, you know, open models, whatever.
[嘉宾]: 但你说可能要3个月。
Original English
[Speaker A]: But you're saying it could be 3 months.
[主持人]: 嗯,看,4.8 已经出来了,5.5 也已经出来了。他们有类似的能力。你看,你不需要破解最难破解的代码。您只需要找到代码中的一些漏洞即可。就拿一个旧的工业系统来说吧,它正在边缘运行 OT 代码。您可以相当容易地找到该漏洞。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Well, look, there's what is 4.8 is already out, 5.5 is already out. They have similar capabilities. And look, you don't need to crack the hardest code to crack. You just need to find a few vulnerabilities in code that are out there. Just take an take an old industrial system which is running, you know, OT code on the edge. You can find that vulnerability reasonably easily.
[嘉宾]: 所以,我们现在正在一场网络防御者之间的竞赛,他们要找到这些漏洞并提前修补它们
Original English
[Speaker A]: So So we're in a race right now between the cyber defenders finding these vulnerabilities and patching them before
[主持人]: 网络攻击者也做同样的事情。
Original English
[Speaker B]: the cyber attackers do the same thing.
[嘉宾]: 是的。你觉得我们在那场比赛中表现如何?
Original English
[Speaker A]: Yes. And how do you feel like we're doing in that race?
[主持人]: 所以,没有达到我们应该做的那样,这对我们的业务很有好处,但那是另一回事了。所以,每家公司都必须检查他们的代码库,找出漏洞所在并修复它们。因此,如果你今天与 CIOS 交谈,他们最大的问题是所有供应商都出现说:“请修补我的硬件设备。请修补我的代码,因为我发现了漏洞。修复它。”而独联体正忙于寻找自己的漏洞来修复自己的漏洞,然后这个称为开源的巨大事物却没有人知道如何解决。
Original English
[Speaker B]: So, not as well as we should be doing, which is great for our business, but that's a different story. So, look, every company has to go look at their code base and figure out where the vulnerabilities are and fix them. So, if you talk to CIOS today, their biggest problem is all the vendors are showing up saying, "Please patch my piece of boxes that hardware that you have. Please, please patch my code that you have because I found vulnerabilities. Fix it." while the CIS are busy finding their own vulnerabilities to fix their own vulnerabilities and then this huge thing called open source which nobody knows quite how to solve.
[嘉宾]: 那么是否可以说,随着模型能力的提高,大企业的系统性商业风险也会随之上升?
Original English
[Speaker A]: So is it is it fair to say that as model capabilities go up systemic business risk of large enterprises also goes up
[主持人]: 在网络方面?是的,像我们这样的人和其他人正在构建一些解药,我们将提供一些功能,让您无需修补所有内容。但是看,莎拉说了一些关于安全带、记忆和背景的非常有趣的事情,对吧?我们在这里不讨论的部分是组织没有他们每天所做的一切的记忆和背景。这就是为什么您需要在整个企业范围内存储更多数据,以了解什么是好的、什么是坏的。同样的问题也存在于网络安全领域。我们需要从网络角度收集企业中 10 倍的数据,才能了解如何防御人工智能攻击者。
Original English
[Speaker B]: on the cyber side? Yes, there are antidotes being built by people like us and others where we're going to provide some capability where you don't have to patch everything. But look, Sarah said something very interesting around harnesses, memory, and context, right? The part we don't talk about here is organizations don't have memory and context of everything they do every day. That's why you need to store a lot more data enterprisewide to learn what good looks like and what bad looks like. The same problem is in cyber security. We need to we need to collect 10 times the data in the enterprise from a cyber perspective to be able to understand how to defend ourselves against the AI attackers.
[嘉宾]: 你认为像SAS这样的传统公司在这个世界上存在过吗?当所有这些知识变得更加持久和存储时,它们的位置是什么? SAS 会发生什么?
Original English
[Speaker A]: Do you think that the traditional companies like the SAS businesses that have existed in this world? What is their place as all this knowledge becomes more persistent and stored? What happens to SAS?
[主持人]: 好吧,你看 SAS 就是 Bill 说的 SAS 是不同的部分,对吧?好的。如果您是一家分析 SAS 公司,那么一切都结束了。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Well, you see SAS is Bill said SAS is different pieces, right? Okay. If you're an analytical SAS company, it's over.
[嘉宾]: 结束了。什么是分析型 SAS 公司?
Original English
[Speaker A]: It's over. What is an analytical SAS company?
[主持人]: 有人说:“我将为你收集大量数据并为你分析。我不需要你为我分析。我可以针对数据运行模型并自己进行分析。”因此,如果您考虑一下,每个 SAS 公司都有很多市场。您可以购买 Salesforce 市场。他们怎么说?您有 Salesforce 数据。我是一个市场应用程序。带上我,我帮你分析数据。我不需要。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Somebody that says, "I'm going to collect a lot of data for you and analyze it for you. I don't need you to analyze it for me. I can run models against data and analyze them myself." So, if you think about there's a lot of every SAS company has a marketplace. You can buy Salesforce marketplace. What do they say? You have Salesforce data. I'm a marketplace app. Take me and I'll help you analyze the data. I don't need to.
[嘉宾]: 你不需要那个。
Original English
[Speaker A]: You don't need that.
[主持人]: 我可以针对数据运行 NLM。因此,作为增量软件模块出售给我们所有人的整个增量不需要出售给我们,因为我宁愿让 Lens 与之竞争
Original English
[Speaker B]: I can just go run NLM against the data. So the entire incrementality that has been sold as incremental software modules to all of us doesn't need to be sold to us because I'd much rather have Lens run against
[嘉宾]: 有趣的是你提出这个。我们有一个 SAS 产品实例,有 20 个席位。没有人登录并使用它,但数据就在那里。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Interesting you bring this up. We had an instance with a SAS product with 20 seats. Nobody was logging in and using it but the data was there.
[主持人]: 是的。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Yes.
对话阶段 2
[嘉宾]: 所以我们创建了三个账户,删除了 17 个,
Original English
[Speaker A]: So we created like three accounts, got rid of 17,
[主持人]: 将其连接到 Slack,将其连接到 Claude,现在每个人都可以通过自然语言进行交互。我们的账单减少了 90%。
Original English
[Speaker B]: connected it to Slack, connected it to Claude, and now everybody can interface it through a natural language. and we've reduced our bill by 90%.
[嘉宾]: 嗯,不仅如此。接下来你打算做什么,D?呃,杰森,你将从不同的产品中获取数据,将它们放在一个地方,然后对其进行分析。我想要销售代表的数据、生产力数据以及来自 SAP 的库存数据。我希望所有这些都集中在一个地方,这样我就可以对其进行分析并说,谁卖得很多?哪里的库存比较少?让我们在销售人员效率极高的地区建立库存。要运行该查询,明天您必须与三种不同的 SAS 产品进行对话,您可以将所有数据放在一个位置,这样第一类分析 SAS 就已经死了
Original English
[Speaker A]: Well, not just that. What are you going to do next, D? Uh, Jason, is that you're going to take data from different products, put them in one place, run analytics against that. I want my data for my sales reps, my productivity data, my, you know, inventory data from SAP. I want it all one place so I can run analytics against it and say, who's selling a lot? Where do I have less inventory? Let's build inventory in a region where my salespeople are extremely productive. to run that query you'd have to have talk to three different SAS products tomorrow you can put all the data in one place so so that's sort of category one analytical SAS is dead
[主持人]: 催化还好 第一类分析已死
Original English
[Speaker B]: catalytics okay category one analytics dead
[嘉宾]: 是的,从中期来看,今天和明天都会出现所有这些反弹,但这些反弹几乎无关紧要
Original English
[Speaker A]: yes in medium term you get all these bounces today and tomorrow that's these are marginally irrelevant
[主持人]: 基础设施软件被低估
Original English
[Speaker B]: infrastructure software undervalued
[嘉宾]: 好的,什么是基础设施软件
Original English
[Speaker A]: okay what is infrastructure software
[主持人]: 为您提供数据库的东西,您将数据收集到其中的东西,使您的基础设施能够工作的东西,无论它是您知道的数据库软件数据砖,雪花之类的东西。
Original English
[Speaker B]: stuff that gives you databases you collect data into it stuff that allows your infrastructure to work whether it's a you know database software data bricks, snowflake like that.
[嘉宾]: 数据砖、雪花、MongoDB、Oracle、Oracle,所有这些你都需要
Original English
[Speaker A]: Data bricks, snowflake, MongoDB, Oracle, Oracle, all these things you need
[主持人]: 核心存储基础设施、核心数据。
Original English
[Speaker B]: core storage infrastructure, core data.
[嘉宾]: 未来三年,我们需要的企业存储数据量将是目前的 10 倍。 10次
Original English
[Speaker A]: We are going to need 10 times the data stored in enterprise than we have today for the next three years. 10 times
[主持人]: 好的。
Original English
[Speaker B]: okay.
[嘉宾]: 因此,任何可以帮助你收集基础设施、数据、管理它的东西,你都需要,我认为中间的类别被称为工作系统或你知道人们称之为记录的系统。这些都深深植根于企业的运作方式中。我有 6,000 名销售人员。他们知道这是如何运作的。第一步,我们将取消 UI,让代理来完成工作。 UI 企业软件和消费软件 UI 是我们作为技术人员做过的最糟糕的事情。
Original English
[Speaker A]: So anything that helps you collect infrastructure, data, manage it, you need I think the category in the middle is called let's call it system of work or system you know of record people call them. Those are deeply embedded in the way businesses work. I have 6,000 salespeople. They know how this works. What's going to happen is step one, we will take away UI and let agents do the work. UI enterprise software and consumer software UI is the worst thing we did as technologist.
[主持人]: 你有几个这样的例子。你告诉我这个故事。我不知道你是否想重复一下这家公司。他们试图用执照扣押你。
Original English
[Speaker B]: You had a couple of examples of this. You told me the story. I don't know if you want to repeat it of this one company. They tried to hold you hostage on a license.
[嘉宾]: 是的。这就是分析型 SAS。所以那就是
Original English
[Speaker A]: Yes. That was analytical SAS. So that's
[主持人]: 你只要把人工智能指向它,你就可以
Original English
[Speaker B]: and you just pointed AI at it and you just
[嘉宾]: 是的,我们刚刚摆脱了它们。那是另一个问题了。但我的意思是,今天想一想。我们一生都在让产品经理设计 UI,以便所有人都可以与 UI 背后的数据进行交互。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Yes, we just got rid of them. That's a different issue. But I mean, think about it today. We spend our lives having product managers design UI so all humans can interact with data behind the UI.
[主持人]: 是的。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Yeah.
[嘉宾]: 如果你相信代理会起作用,我说我只是告诉代理从我的销售电话中找出关键点,然后将其发布到你知道的任何销售跟踪系统中,无论我使用 Oracle 或 Salesforce 正确的销售跟踪系统,代理在概念上应该能够做到这一点,如果我们花费数万亿美元来构建这些代理后端。我们需要这些代理才能做到这一点。如果发生这种情况,用户界面就会消失。如果 UI 消失,我可以重新连接我的工作系统,对吧?我有销售人员出现并说,我接到了销售电话,做了所有的文书工作以及公司后端需要发生的所有事情,然后我就完成了,
Original English
[Speaker A]: If all like if you believe agents are going to work and I say I just tell an agent look figure out from my sales call figure out the key points and go post it into you know whatever sales tracking system I have with this Oracle or Salesforce right an agent conceptually should be able to do it should we're spending trillion dollars building these agentic backends. We need these agents to be able to do it. If that happens UI goes away. If UI goes away, I can rewire my system of work, right? I have sales guy shows up and says, I had the sales call, do all the paperwork and all the that needs to happen in the back end of the company and just I'm done,
[主持人]: 正确的?如果我能改变工作方式,那么你将获得真正的效率,即公司中的五个人变成一个人,所有这些负责工作系统的 SAS 软件在未来 5 年内都需要重新设计
Original English
[Speaker B]: right? If I can change the way work happens which is where you will get true efficiency where five people become one in a company all these SAS software that does system of work needs to be re-engineered for the next 5 years
[嘉宾]: 而且它也是被动发生的,这非常有趣,它在查看电子邮件时会自动获取 Zoom 成绩单和摘要,因此销售记录系统现在就像您甚至不需要输入它一样,就像我已经有了 Zoom 通话记录一样,我有套牌,套牌是由 AI 制作的,销售套牌是由人工智能制作的。只是我们都会看着聊天窗口并说这就是我想要的。
Original English
[Speaker A]: and and it's also happening passively which is really interesting it's looking at email it's automatically taking the Zoom transcript and summary so the sales system of record is now like you don't even need to input it it's like I already have the Zoom call notes I have the deck the deck was made the sales deck was made by AI. It's just we're all going to be looking at a chat window and just saying here's what I want.
[主持人]: 您的审计跟踪变得更好,因为人类不会接触您的数据。它总是由代理商重新管理。所以我认为整个工作系统、记录系统将在未来 5 年内重新发明。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Your audit trail becomes a lot better because humans are not touching your data. It's always remanaged by agents. So I think the whole system of work, system of record gets reinvented in the next 5 years.
[嘉宾]: 是的,没有数据输入。这是一个有趣的点。是的。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Yeah, there's no data entry. That's an interesting point. Yeah.
[主持人]: 让我们谈谈国家安全。我只是想缩小。因此,正如您所说,神话的一方面是它对您、您和企业的价值。红队版本的神话是外国国家行为者或你知道的基本上可以在一个国家内部造成经济破坏。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Let's talk about national security for a second. I just want to maybe zoom out. So the one side of mythos as you said is like the value that it has to you and to your and to enterprises. The red team version of mythos is where foreign state actors or you know can essentially create economic havoc inside of a country.
[嘉宾]: 是的。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Yes.
[主持人]: 随着这些模型的能力不断升级,您认为当这些模型准备就绪时应该发生什么?你知道,呃,可悲的事实是一年内会发生数千起违规或攻击事件。它们发生的原因非常简单。这并不是因为有人破解了难以破解的东西。发生这种情况是因为 89% 的攻击是由于凭证被盗或
Original English
[Speaker B]: As these models escalate in their capability, what do you think should happen when these models are ready? You know, uh, the sad truth is in a year there's a few thousand breaches or attacks that happen. They happen for pretty rudimentary reasons. It's not because somebody cracked a hard to crack thing. It happens because 89% of attacks happen because credentials get stolen or
[嘉宾]: 用户名和密码。
Original English
[Speaker A]: username and password.
[主持人]: 就是这样。
Original English
[Speaker B]: That's it.
[嘉宾]: 我的密码就是密码。
Original English
[Speaker A]: My password is password.
[主持人]: 是的,我确定是的。你有美元符号吗?
Original English
[Speaker B]: Yeah, I'm sure it is. Do you have dollar sign dollar sign?
[嘉宾]: 极好的。干得好。你看,你已经领先于其他人了。因此,89% 的违规行为都是因为简单的事情而发生的。所以我认为我们不需要更多的模型来破解这个问题。现在我们需要您这些模型可以攻击关键基础设施以及我们从国家安全角度尝试保护的东西。是的,我们需要在那里进行防御。我并不担心国家安全部分受到保护,因为他们对此非常重视。他们是对的人。他们将 10% 的预算用于安全。我担心全国各地的小型办公室,他们正在使用某些软件包,而你正在经营牙医办公室或医生办公室。还记得当改变医疗保健被破坏时,每个医生的办公室都被关闭
Original English
[Speaker A]: Fantastic. Well done. See, you're already ahead of everybody else. So 89% of breaches happen because of simple things. So I don't think we need more models to go crack this stuff. Now we will need you these models can attack critical infrastructure and things we try and protect from a national security perspective. Yes, we need defenses there. I'm not worried about the national security part being protected because they're very on it. They are the right people. They spend 10% of their budgets on it on security. I'm worried about the small offices across the country where they're using some piece of package software and you're running a dentist office or doctor's office. Remember when when change healthcare got breached every physician's office shut down
[主持人]: 关闭,这是勒索软件
Original English
[Speaker B]: shut down and it's ransomware
[嘉宾]: 因为勒索软件改变了医疗保健,这就是清算系统,那时 United Healthack 实际上必须向医生提供数十亿美元的信贷,以便能够在那个时间点经营他们的业务,这才是人们应该担心的,而不是担心大坚果会被破解。
Original English
[Speaker A]: because of ransomware to change healthcare that's was the clearing system that's when United Healthack had to actually have give billions of dollars of credits to the physicians to be able to run their businesses at that point in time that's what one should worry about it's less about the big nuts will get cracked
[主持人]: 与其说是破解 PG&E 发电设施,不如说是经济混乱
Original English
[Speaker B]: it's less about cracking some PG&E power generation facility it's more economic chaos
[嘉宾]: 是的
Original English
[Speaker A]: yes
[主持人]: 那么我们该怎么办呢?
Original English
[Speaker B]: and so what what what do we do?
[嘉宾]: 我不认为有什么灵丹妙药。我认为这需要时间。我认为这基本上需要一段时间,直到每个系统都随着时间的推移而升级、更新、修复。我只是认为它增加了行业的终端价值。正确的。
Original English
[Speaker A]: I don't think there's a sort of a silver bullet. I think this will take time. I think this will basically take a while until every system gets upgraded, renewed, fixed over time. I just think it increase the terminal value of the industry. Right.
[主持人]: 正确的。你是否认为在这个世界中,这些模型变得如此优秀,以至于你可以看到自己提倡更多的民族主义,围绕如何控制它们、如何管理它们以及它们如何处于我们所指的位置,或者你认为可能应该有一组这样的模型永远不会出现,只有国家安全局和其他人或像你这样的人才能访问?
Original English
[Speaker B]: Right. Do you think that there's a world in which these models become so good that you could see yourself advocating for more nationalism around how they're controlled and how they're managed and how they're where we point them or do you think there should be a maybe a set of these models that never see the light of day that only the NSA and other folks could have access to or guys like you?
[嘉宾]: 与我们之前从 OpenAI 的角度听到的观点相比,我对模型及其如何演变的看法略有不同。我想我仍然相信模型将成为实用层。你将能够即时购买情报,你可以说我不需要 180 IQ 的人来完成这项任务。给我 120 智商,我需要 250 智商才能完成这项任务。我将为此支付 10 美元,为此我将支付 1 美分。所以我不知道是否有一种一刀切的款式可以为您提供最新的型号来接听我的客户电话,说对不起,先生,我不知道如何解决您的问题。所以我认为模型将从功利主义的角度有所区别。嗯,如果你看看市场上正在发生的事情,利润池就在应用程序中,而不是在模型中。莎拉谈到了 codeex 逃跑,她没有说开放人工智能正在逃跑,她说 codeex 正在逃跑,只是说,我确信 Dario 说云代码正在逃跑,所以你看到了
Original English
[Speaker A]: I have a slightly differentiated view about models and how they will evolve versus what we heard earlier from an OpenAI perspective. I think I still believe models are going to become a utility layer. You'll be able to buy intelligence on the fly where you can say I don't need 180 IQ person to go do this task. Give me 120 IQ and I need a 250 IQ to do this task. I'll pay $10 for this and for this I'll pay 1 cent. So I don't know there's a one-sizefits all give you the most up-to-date model to answer my customer call saying sorry sir I have no idea how to solve your problem. So I think models will get differentiated from ut utilitarian perspective. Um so if you look at already what's happening in the market right the profit pools are in applications not in models more Sarah talked about codeex running away she didn't say open AI is running away she says codeex is running away just say just the way I'm sure Dario says cloud code is running away so you're seeing that
[主持人]: 他们正在攻击利润池
Original English
[Speaker B]: they're attacking profit pools
[嘉宾]: 他们正在攻击利润池,因为利润池是资金的来源 是公司可以使用的应用程序 利润池不在公司的模型使用范围内,因为大多数公司不知道如何使用这些模型
Original English
[Speaker A]: they're attacking profit pools because that's where the money is going to come from the profit pools are an application that companies can use the profit pools are not in model usage by companies because most companies have no idea how to use the models
[主持人]: 随着新的微软办公室的到来,以 OpenAI 和人性化的方式看待这些公司,并为组织提供所有应用程序和生产力软件
Original English
[Speaker B]: look at these companies in a way OpenAI and anthropic as the new Microsoft office coming in and doing all applications all productivity software for organizations
[嘉宾]: 不,我看到将会有应用程序公司在模型之间进行套利并解决您的业务问题
Original English
[Speaker A]: no I see there's going to be application companies which are going to arbitrage between models and solve your business problem
[主持人]: 所以你仍然认为他们不会进入应用程序层,因为这是一个很大的争论,你是否应该参与开放人工智能并训练他们的系统,然后从你手中夺走你的业务,而人类不断发布他们的法律模型,他们的会计模型,而且确实感觉为了让他们达到他们的收入数字,他们可能需要做微软所做的事情,即在操作系统之上发布办公产品。
Original English
[Speaker B]: so you still think they won't go to the application layer because this is a big debate should you engage with open AI and train their systems to then take your business from you and anthropic keeps releasing their legal model, their accounting model, and it does feel like in order for them to hit their revenue numbers, they might need to do what Microsoft did, which is release the office product on top of the operating system.
[嘉宾]: 你看,如果我是一家公司,我不想自己编写每一个软件。我希望我的人力资源系统软件,由某个应用公司提供的代理启用和人工智能启用,可以是一家新的人工智能应用公司。我希望我的销售管理系统由世界上新的代理人工智能销售团队构建,无论是 Salesforce 还是其他人。所以,我想要应用程序。现在,莎拉所说的是利润池在应用层。这就是为什么他们想成为应用层。因此,我认为我们仍在等待应用程序所在的公司层被发明或创建,因为 50,000 家公司需要相同的应用程序。我为什么要自己建造它?这是非常低效的。因为我很聪明,直接使用OpenAI并重写我的整个销售系统对我来说很愚蠢,对吧?我不是。我想要有人为我做这件事。所以,我认为这一层公司还没有完全形成。我们仍然会等待
Original English
[Speaker A]: See, if I'm a company, I don't want to write every piece of software myself. I want my HR system software, which is agentic enabled and AI enabled to be delivered by some application company, could be a new AI application company. I want my sales management system built by the new agentic AI salesforce of the world, whether it's Salesforce or somebody else. So, I want applications. Now, what Sarah said is the profit pools are in the application layer. That's why they want to be the application layer. So, I think we're still waiting for that layer of companies to be invented or created where applications will sit because 50,000 companies need the same application. Why would I build it myself? It's highly inefficient. It's silly for me to use OpenAI directly and rewrite my entire sales system because I'm smart, right? I'm not. I want somebody to do it for me. So, I think that layer of companies is still not fully formed. We're still going to be waiting for
[主持人]: 你想要一个控制平面、一个线束,然后
Original English
[Speaker B]: you want a control plane, a harness, and then
[嘉宾]: 这是正确的。他们将把线束和内存构建到这些应用程序层中。现在的问题是应用层有多大?是一个应用程序吗?你知道,有一个企业应用程序可以完成所有工作。或者说它是专门的?
Original English
[Speaker A]: that's right. They will build the harnesses and the memory into those application layers. Now, the question is how big is the application layer? Is it one application? There's there's one, you know, enterprise application that does everything. Or is it specialized?
[主持人]: 你做到了,并且踢出了这个软件供应商。你这样做是因为他们滥用定价。所以,
Original English
[Speaker B]: You did it and you kicked out this software vendor. You did it because they were being abusive in pricing. So,
[嘉宾]: 我们仍然使用这个不同的供应商。
Original English
[Speaker A]: we still use this different vendor.
[主持人]: 那是什么?
Original English
[Speaker B]: What's that?
对话阶段 3
[嘉宾]: 我们更换了不同的供应商。我们只是获得了更多的控制权。
Original English
[Speaker A]: We swapped out for a different vendor. We just took more control.
[主持人]: 爱它。所以,这确实是一个定价问题,这就是为什么 SAS 启示在某些方面是有道理的。他们没有定价权,因为你可以说,“我只要让 10 个开发人员参与这个项目,我就可以节省 1000 万美元。”
Original English
[Speaker B]: Love it. So, it really is a pricing issue and and that's why the SAS apocalypse in some ways makes sense. They're not having pricing power because you could say, "I'll just put 10 developers on this and I'll save $10 million."
[嘉宾]: 是的。我认为回到 Chamat 所说的关于监管的部分,或者你是否想要监管这些更高功率的模型,问题是在某个时间点,当这些更强大的新模型建成时,它们将以不同的价格点出现,它们可能必须经过一定的审查过程来了解它们的能力,但我认为我们处于一场全球竞赛中,我不认为将我们的模型保留 3 到 6 个月会帮助我们,其他人会把它们放在开源中,我是我当我与其中一家模型公司的首席执行官交谈时,我很震惊地听到他说他们最新模型的全部重量都可以放在 USB 记忆棒上。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Yes. I think the part back to what Chamat said about the regulation or whether you want to regulate these higher powered models the question is at some point in time when these newer models which are even more powerful get built they will come at a different price point and they might have to go to a certain vetting process to understand what their capabilities are but I think we're in a global race I don't think holding back our models for 3 to 6 months is going to help us anybody else is going to put them out in open source I I was I was shocked to hear when I was talking to the CEO of one of these model companies he says is the entire weights of their most recent model can fit on a USB stick.
[主持人]: 哦,再说一遍。整个权重
Original English
[Speaker B]: Oh, say that again. The entire weights
[嘉宾]: 最新模型的整个模型重量都可以放在 USB 记忆棒上。这就是IP。
Original English
[Speaker A]: entire model weights of their newest model fits on a USB stick. That's the IP.
[主持人]: 那真是难以置信
Original English
[Speaker B]: That's incredible
[嘉宾]: 因为所有数据都可以在 24 到 48 小时内提取出来,模型就出来了。
Original English
[Speaker A]: because all the data can be distilled in under 24 to 48 hours and model comes out.
[主持人]: 我很好奇。
Original English
[Speaker B]: I'm curious.
[嘉宾]: 这就是IP。那么你是说你知道我们可以坚持 6 个月吗?
Original English
[Speaker A]: So that's the IP. So are you telling me that you know we can hold on to that for 6 months?
[主持人]: 正确的。我们有一个关于制作前沿模型有多困难的争论。一些公司开始考虑利用他们的数据优势来建立自己的前沿模型。你在帕洛阿尔托考虑过这一点吗?因为看起来您确实拥有有关安全性如何运作的专有知识。您能否构建自己的大型语言模型或 VSSML 一个能给您带来一些优势的小型语言模型?
Original English
[Speaker B]: Right. We we have a debate about um how difficult it is to make a frontier model. Some companies are starting to think about making frontier models using their data advantage to to build their own. Have you thought about that at PaloAlto? Because it does seem like you have proprietary knowledge on how security works. Could you build your own large language model or a VSSML a small language model that would give you some advantages?
[嘉宾]: 这是这部分
Original English
[Speaker A]: Here's the part
[主持人]: 没有人谈论。是的。
Original English
[Speaker B]: nobody talks about. Yeah.
[嘉宾]: 是模型的误报率。 4.8 和 5.5 的误报率是多少?
Original English
[Speaker A]: Is the false positive rates on the models. What is the false positive rate on 4.8 and 5.5?
[主持人]: 不知道。
Original English
[Speaker B]: No idea.
[嘉宾]: 你们别谈这个了。 Mythos 的误报率应该是 30%。
Original English
[Speaker A]: You guys don't talk about it. You should the false positive rate on mythos was 30%.
[主持人]: 哦哇。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Oh wow.
[嘉宾]: 正确的。你真的吗?
Original English
[Speaker A]: Right. Do you really?
[主持人]: 所以它以为它发现了一些东西,但实际上并没有。
Original English
[Speaker B]: So it thought it found something but it hadn't.
[嘉宾]: 是的。所以问题是它非常适合攻击。这对防守来说太可怕了。它找到某物的概率为 30% 或 30%。我发现了一个问题,你说让我们堵住这个漏洞。等等,一开始那里就没有洞。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Yes. So the problem is it's great for attack. It's horrible for defense. It finds 30 times 30% of the time it finds something. I found a problem and you say let's plug the hole. Wait, there wasn't a hole there in the first place.
[主持人]: 没有导弹袭来,
Original English
[Speaker B]: No missile inbound,
[嘉宾]: 正确的?是的。
Original English
[Speaker A]: right? Yeah.
[主持人]: 那么现在同样的问题也出现在企业中。如果您使用的模型没有正确的工具和正确的训练,您可能会遇到 10 20% 的误报率。让我们使用该模型来支付我不知道的保险索赔。
Original English
[Speaker B]: So now the same problem applies in enterprise. If you use a if you use a model without the right harnesses, the right training, you could be running into 10 20% false positive rates. Let's use the model to pay I don't know insurance claims.
[嘉宾]: 是的。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Yeah.
[主持人]: 哦,太好了。 10% 20% 误报。我刚刚输了钱。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Oh, great. 10% 20% false positive. I just lost money.
[嘉宾]: 这些病态的本质是荒谬的。是的。
Original English
[Speaker A]: The sickopantic nature of these is ridiculous. Yeah.
[主持人]: 所以所以问题不在于谁想要新的S模型。问题是如何将误报率为 20% 或 10% 的模型变为 01% 误报。在我的生意中,我想要 0%。
Original English
[Speaker B]: So So the problem is not who wants the new S model. The problem is how do you take that model with 20% or 10% false positive and make it 01% false positive. In my business, I want 0%.
[嘉宾]: 不丢失假阴性,对吧,
Original English
[Speaker A]: Without losing the false negative, right,
[主持人]: 不丢失阴性、假阴性。
Original English
[Speaker B]: without losing the negative, the false negative.
[嘉宾]: 但这就像在说,嘿,我们来开一辆新的自动驾驶汽车吧。梅赛德斯将使用 Opus 4.8,你只需坐在车里,它就会驾驶你。我不会让我的孩子坐上那辆误报率为 10% 的车。你是?
Original English
[Speaker A]: But it's like saying, hey, let's take the new self-driving car. Mercedes is going to use Opus 4.8 and you can just sit in the car and it's going to drive you. I'm not putting my kids in that car with a 10% false positive rate. Are you?
[主持人]: 正确的。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Right.
[嘉宾]: 因此,在模型之后需要进行大量工作,以使这些东西在业务环境中有用且有效。
Original English
[Speaker A]: So, there's a lot of work that happens post the model which needs to happen to make these things useful and effective in the business context.
[主持人]: 让我呃稍稍转动一下。您在谷歌担任了很长一段时间的首席商务官。您曾担任软银总裁。现在你是 Polit 的首席执行官。那么,让我们扮演纸上谈兵的首席执行官吧。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Let me uh slightly pivot for a second. You were for a very long time the chief business officer at Google. You were the president of SoftBank. Now you're the CEO of Polit. So let's play armchair CEO.
[嘉宾]: 扶手椅首席执行官。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Armchair CEO.
[主持人]: 扶手椅首席执行官。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Armchair CEO.
[嘉宾]: 我仍然对大卫·弗里德伯格(David Friedberg)试图区分创始人首席执行官和非创始人首席执行官感到愤怒。只是说。
Original English
[Speaker A]: I'm still I'm still bristling from David Friedberg trying to create a distinction between founder CEOs and non-founder CEOs. Just saying.
[主持人]: 只是说。大卫,
Original English
[Speaker B]: Just saying. David,
[嘉宾]: 顺便说一下,还有误报、漏报。中号
Original English
[Speaker A]: by the way, false positives, false negatives, too. M
[主持人]: 请告诉我们您会保留什么、您会改变什么以及您喜欢以下公司的什么。
Original English
[Speaker B]: give us what you would keep, what you would change, and what you like about the following companies.
[嘉宾]: 这将被记录下来并发布出去,以表明我们刚刚了解了您的想法。你是最聪明的商人之一。
Original English
[Speaker A]: This is going to get recorded and put out there to say we're just getting your thoughts. You're one of the smartest business people.
[主持人]: 我不喜欢你是最聪明的企业之一,竟然会问你问题。别挤人。你准备好了吗?
Original English
[Speaker B]: I don't like that you're one of the smartest business all in asking you a question. Don't peopleing people. Are you ready?
[嘉宾]: 是的,当然。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Yeah, sure.
[主持人]: 好的。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Okay.
[嘉宾]: 你保留什么,你改变什么,你喜欢什么,你不喜欢什么。
Original English
[Speaker A]: What you keep, what you change, what you like, what you don't like.
[主持人]: 优步。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Uber.
[嘉宾]: 在一个世界里
Original English
[Speaker A]: In a world of
[主持人]: 我对此感到厌倦,伙计。我不能谈论我的优步董事会。
Original English
[Speaker B]: I'm bored of it, dude. I can't talk about my board of Uber.
[嘉宾]: 我是 Uber 的董事会。我不会谈论 Uber。我不知道。对不起。好的。
Original English
[Speaker A]: I'm the board of Uber. I'm not going to talk about Uber. I didn't know that. Sorry. Okay.
[主持人]: Dr. Dra,他是首席执行官。他是一个很棒的人。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Dr. Dra, he's the CEO. He's a great guy.
[嘉宾]: 好的。呃,怀莫。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Okay. Uh, Whimo.
[主持人]: 应该让我被解雇。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Should get me fired.
对话阶段 4
[嘉宾]: 怀莫。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Whimo.
[主持人]: 我喜欢 Whimo 的什么?汽车可以工作。太棒了。他们应该在世界上更多的城市拥有更多。快点。我会对 Teigira 这么说。我想她知道。
Original English
[Speaker B]: What do I like about Whimo? The cars work. It's amazing. They should have more in many more cities around the world. Faster. I I would say that to Teigira. I think she knows.
[嘉宾]: 整个谷歌。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Google at large.
[主持人]: 我认为谷歌被低估了。我认为这将是我们一生中第一家价值 10 万亿美元的公司。我认为他们拥有成功所需的所有资产。我认为人们低估了你可以成为一家模范公司,你仍然需要一支销售队伍来说服客户走出去接受这些模型并购买它们。如果你仔细想想,三个超大规模企业拥有最多的销售人员。所以他们应该
Original English
[Speaker B]: I think Google's underrated. I think it's going to be the first 10 trillion dollar company in our lifetime. I think they have all the assets that are that are needed to make this successful. I think people underestimate you can be a model company, you still need to have a sales force that convinces customers to go out there and embrace these models and buy them. And if you think about it, three hyperscalers have the biggest number of sales people out there. So they should
[嘉宾]: 它们被低估的部分原因是其集团性质难以理解。
Original English
[Speaker A]: part of why they're a little bit undervalued is just the conglomerate nature is hard to understand.
[主持人]: 我不知道。你们在这方面很聪明。我只是一个受雇的首席执行官。
Original English
[Speaker B]: I don't know. You guys are smart of that stuff. I'm just a hired hand CEO.
[嘉宾]: 我没那么说。死神如此说道。让我们明确一点。
Original English
[Speaker A]: I didn't say that. Reaper said that. Let's just be clear.
[主持人]: 我知道。我知道。
Original English
[Speaker B]: I know. I know.
[嘉宾]: 我当时正在写一篇关于从 SAS 灾难中恢复过来的论文。好的。澄清一下,我曾经一起工作过。有一种方法可以细分该篮子。
Original English
[Speaker A]: I was I was providing a thesis on recovery out of the SAS apocalypse. Okay. just to be clear and I used to work together. There's a way to segment that basket.
[主持人]: 好的。而你并不在那个篮子里。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Okay. And you're not in that basket.
[嘉宾]: 我以为你是在区分创始人、首席执行官有权承担更多风险以及被允许承担更多风险。
Original English
[Speaker A]: I thought you were making a distinction about how people who are founders, CEOs have uh have the right to take more risk and are allowed to take more risk.
[主持人]: 我是这么说的
Original English
[Speaker B]: I was saying that
[嘉宾]: 我认为,我和我认为你提供了一个独特的对立点,但没有太多意义。我认为杰夫·韦纳也是如此,我认为还有其他一些呃非常伟大的首席执行官,但他们就像矩阵类型异常中的尼奥一样,我认为你就是这些人中的一员,有一种非常罕见的性格特征,有人愿意冒险并拥有本来不属于他们的东西,然后他们把它变成了自己的,呃这是一种非常独特的特质,实际上比成为一个可扩展的创始人更加独特。
Original English
[Speaker A]: and I think and I and I think you you provide a unique counterpoint to that and and there's not a lot of point. I think the same was true of Jeff Weiner and I think that there's a few other uh really great CEOs, but they are like Neo in the matrix type anomalies and I think you're one of those people and there's a very rare kind of personality profile of someone that's willing to take risk and take ownership of something that wasn't theirs in the first place and they make it theirs and uh it's a it's a extraordinarily unique trait far more unique actually than being a scalable founder.
[主持人]: 这是一次令人难以置信的扑救。
Original English
[Speaker B]: It's an incredible save.
[嘉宾]: 你被原谅了。
Original English
[Speaker A]: You're forgiven.
[主持人]: 是的,保存得很好。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Yeah, good save.
[嘉宾]: 让我们回到ARM。哇,太不可思议了。开AI比聊天GBT还要病态狂热。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Let's go back to ARM. Wow, that was incredible. Open AI more sick fanic than chat GBT.
[主持人]: 他实际上是最好的。
Original English
[Speaker B]: He's like actually the best.
[嘉宾]: 我们走吧。让我们回到艺术。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Let's go. Let's go back to Art.
[主持人]: 我很喜欢这个。他来的次数比较多。是的,
Original English
[Speaker B]: I'm liking this. He has been more often. Yes,
[嘉宾]: 他们需要更快地销售。
Original English
[Speaker A]: they need to sell faster.
[主持人]: 打开人工智能。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Open AI.
[嘉宾]: 他们应该卖得更快,对吧?
Original English
[Speaker A]: They should sell faster, right?
[主持人]: 他们应该卖得更快。
Original English
[Speaker B]: They should sell faster.
[嘉宾]: 我的意思是,我你说过,你 Sarah 在这里的时候不是说过 Anthropic 的 ARR 提升速度似乎比 OpenAI 快得多吗?
Original English
[Speaker A]: I mean, I you said it, didn't you just say it when you Sarah was here that Anthropic seems to have improved their ARR much faster than OpenAI?
[主持人]: 我的意思是,这只是统计数据。
Original English
[Speaker B]: I mean, that's just the statistics.
[嘉宾]: 他们有点全力以赴地投入到企业和专门的投票中。
Original English
[Speaker A]: They kind of went all in on enterprise and voting specifically.
[主持人]: 我想我认为这就像现在的谈话是一场接管利润池的竞赛。
Original English
[Speaker B]: I think I think that's like the the the conversation right now is it's a race to take over the profit pools.
[嘉宾]: 如果每年需要数百亿美元才能获得什么,那么一吉瓦就是 100 亿收入,那么什么是最多的?
Original English
[Speaker A]: If you are going to need tens and tens of billions of dollars every year to get what is that one gawatt is 10 billion revenue what are the what are the most
[主持人]: 建造你要花多少钱?
Original English
[Speaker B]: what does it cost to build you?
[嘉宾]: 那么最令人兴奋的是什么
Original English
[Speaker A]: So what are the most exciting
[主持人]: 花费50?所以这是一件大事。
Original English
[Speaker B]: cost 50? So this is a great deal.
[嘉宾]: 那么最令人兴奋的利润池是什么呢?所以我们得到了过去一年中突破性应用程序的编码。它是巨大的。您已经拥有了像您所说的新数据库那样的基础设施。我认为网络安全显然是其中之一,因为威胁和补丁周期更加动态。
Original English
[Speaker A]: So what are the most exciting profit pools then? So we got coding that's been the breakout application over the past year. It's massive. You've got infrastructure like you said the new databases. I think cyber security is clearly one of them because the threats and patching cycles so much more dynamic.
[主持人]: 是的内部有细微的差别。因此,正如你所看到的,这些模型正在努力成为更好的网络安全的推动者,这是很好的,因为我们所有人都需要使用它们来进行测试,如果你看到 Enthropic 已经将他们的网络能力模型普遍提供,那么你可能会看到我,这样每个人都可以使用它,睁开眼睛也有一个,我相信谷歌也有一个,但他们知道这是 CISO 或首席安全官希望使用它来测试代码的地方,所以这是另一个利润池,我认为我们还没有看到针对应用软件企业的猛攻尚未到来。我的意思是,正如我们所说,有数百亿美元的应用软件正在等待被重新发明。我想最终你会看到这些人说,如果我把这个价值 4050 千亿美元的项目镇压下来,我可以构建一个全新的骨干人工智能,它是如此差异化,以至于会导致客户移动。我们将其视为加速器中的剧本。现在
Original English
[Speaker B]: There's a slight difference within Yes. So as you can see these models are trying to be the the enablers of better cyber security which is good because all of us need to use them to test and you're probably going to see I if you saw Enthropic has already uh made their cyber capable model available generally so that everyone can use it and open eye has got one I'm sure Google has one too but they understand this is a place where CISOs or chief security officers want to use it to test the code so this is another profit pool I think we haven't seen the onslaught against the application software companies yet. I mean there's tens and tens of billions of dollars in application software which is waiting to get reinvented as we talked about. I think eventually you'll see these people saying what if I took this 4050 hundred billion dollar tamdown I can build a whole brand new backbone AI and it be so differentiated that it'll cause customers to move. We are seeing it as a playbook in the accelerators. Now
[嘉宾]: 在零年和第一年的公司中,人们向我们推销这是一个每年 1,000 美元、每月 500 美元的 SAS 软件。我们可以花更少的钱做到这一点。我们将根据消耗量向他们收费。对于您使用 8090 所做的事情,我们将扣除 80 90% 的成本。
Original English
[Speaker A]: in the year zero and year one companies, people are coming to us with the pitch, this is a $1,000 a seat per year, $500 a month seat SAS software. We can do it for less. We're going to charge them based on consumption. We're going to take 80 90% of the cost out as to what your is doing with 8090.
[主持人]: 收入最快的两个地方。
Original English
[Speaker B]: The two fastest places to make revenue.
[嘉宾]: 是的。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Yeah.
[主持人]: 在企业中是替换 ts。如果你更换一些东西,我已经有预算了。这很容易。我拿走一些不好的东西或者用更好的东西代替,我就能得到钱。所以替换 TAM 很漂亮。如果可以更换一个行业,更换利润池就很棒了。第二位是消费者收入。在消费者方面,每个用户获得五美元要容易得多。
Original English
[Speaker B]: In enterprise are replacement ts. If you replace something, I already have a budget. It's easy. I take something bad or replace with something better, I get money. So replacement TAMs are beautiful. If you can replace an industry, replace the profit pool is great. The second place is consumer revenue. It's a lot easier to get five bucks per per user on a consumer side.
[嘉宾]: Netflix。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Netflix.
[主持人]: 这就是我的意思,看看它。我认为我们每月支付的订阅费用可能比历史上任何时候都高。而且您认为您的有线电视费用很高。
Original English
[Speaker B]: So that's where I mean, look at it. I think we collectively probably pay more on subscriptions per month than we ever did historically. And you thought your cable bill was high.
[嘉宾]: 是的。您认为未来最终会构建更多还是更少的硬件?如果你一定要猜的话
Original English
[Speaker A]: Yeah. Do you think that you're going to end up building more or less hardware in the future? If you had to guess,
[主持人]: 即使在今天,硬件也是管理低延迟、高吞吐量位的最便宜的方法。您仍然需要一个数据中心。
Original English
[Speaker B]: hardware even today is the cheapest way to uh manage low latency, high throughput bits. You still need a data center.
[嘉宾]: 是的。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Yeah.
[主持人]: 什么是数据中心?它只是管理高吞吐量、低延迟位。这就是为什么如果你看的话,金融服务是最不愿意上云的行业
Original English
[Speaker B]: What's a data center? It's just managing high throughput, low latency bits. That's why if you look, financial services is the most reluctant industry to go to the cloud
[嘉宾]: 因为你增加了延迟。如果增加延迟,就会减少利润。因此,如果你看看每家最大的金融服务公司,无论是高盛还是摩根大通、摩根士丹利街还是这些公司,他们都在做硬件。
Original English
[Speaker A]: because you increase latency. If you increase latency, you reduce profit. So if you look at every of your largest financial services companies, whether it's Goldman or JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley Street or these guys, they're doing hardware.
[主持人]: 是的。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Yeah.
[嘉宾]: 尝试让他们在云上运行业务,但他们做不到,因为延迟会更高。他们会赔钱,
Original English
[Speaker A]: Try to get them to run their business on the cloud, they can't because they will have higher latency. They will lose money,
[主持人]: 正确的?
Original English
[Speaker B]: right?
[嘉宾]: 所以硬件还是要做的。我的意思是,我记得当我购买 Silver Lake 时,我听说戴尔已经完蛋了。没有人想要硬件。我认为戴尔的市值可能会回到 34000 亿美元左右。所以硬件仍然会存在。我们需要的是最快的移动方式。
Original English
[Speaker A]: So hardware is still be made. I mean, I remember when I used to buy Silver Lake and I had heard Dell was done. Nobody wanted hardware. I think Dell might be back to like a three $400 billion market cap. So hardware is still going to be around. we're going to need is the fastest uh way to move.
[主持人]: 硬件开发周期是否会因人工智能而改变?就像你看到很多类似于生成设计的东西在二氧化硅中移动,而这些东西在历史上是手动且周期长的?
Original English
[Speaker B]: Are hardware development cycles changing because of AI? Like are you seeing a lot of like generative design stuff moving in silica that historically was manual and long cycle?
对话阶段 5
[嘉宾]: 是的。但帐篷里的长杆从来都不是设计出来的吧?
Original English
[Speaker A]: Yeah. But the long pole in the tent is never designed, right?
[主持人]: 帐篷里的长杆正在制作中。如今,您无法生产盒子,因为每一个硬件组件都缺货。一切都很昂贵,世界上每家工厂都缺货,因为我们正试图为世界上每个数据中心构建基于众所周知的芯片卡的所有 GPU。所以
Original English
[Speaker B]: The long pole in the tent is production. Today you can't get a box produced because every every piece of hardware componentry is backordered. Everything's expensive and every factory in the world is backorded because we're trying to build all these GPUs based you know chip cards for every data center in the world. So
[嘉宾]: 您认为美国有能力满足这一供应链需求吗?
Original English
[Speaker A]: do you think the US is equipped to fill that supply chain need?
[主持人]: 我们可以在这里这样做吗?或者你认为
Original English
[Speaker B]: Can we do that here or do you think
[嘉宾]: 10年
Original English
[Speaker A]: 10 years
[主持人]: 具有坚定的自上而下的承诺?好吧,我的意思是好消息是我认为硬件行业正在经历一生的财富。一般来说,当你看到一生的财富时,你可以投入 10、20、50、1000 亿美元。我的意思是,我在电视上看到一位首席执行官承诺投入 1000 亿美元的计划来建立更多的内存。所以这样很好。这意味着他们有钱把钱埋在地下,为未来建造这些东西。所以我认为这让我们更加确定
Original English
[Speaker B]: with a commit with a with a firm top down commitment? Well, I mean the good news is that I think the hardware industries is seeing a bonanza of a lifetime. And generally when you see a bonanza of a lifetime, you can go commit 10, 20, 50, $100 billion. I mean, I've seen a CEO on television committing a hundred billion dollar plan to go build more memory. So that's good. That means they have the money to go put the money in the ground literally to go build these things for the future. So I think that gets us more certain that the
[嘉宾]: 我认为税收激励与资本支出的加速折旧有很大关系,你在第一年就可以 100% 冲销
Original English
[Speaker A]: I think I think the tax incentive has a big has a lot to do with that the accelerated depreciation on the uh the capex you get 100% write off in the first year right under the under the
[主持人]: 最后一个问题是,在过去的八年里,你的有机增长非常积极,但你也非常贪婪,你知道你会出手,而且它们通常都有效,所以当你听到比尔·阿曼所说的如何存在这种被击败的公司时,你在市场上获得了大量的许可。有一些值得庆祝的。有人会说,这是一个适合您选择的池子,但其中一些池子可能需要您在水平方向上走得远一些。您如何维持纪律,或者您认为自己在某个时候会考虑一些不太在网络中间的事情?
Original English
[Speaker B]: just a just a final question as we wrap up you over the last eight years you've grown organically very aggressively but you've also been pretty acquisitive you'll you know you'll take shots and they've generally worked so you have a ton of permission in the market when you hear what Bill Aman said about how there's this kind of overbeaten companies. There's a few that get celebrated. That's a right pool for you to pick from, but some of that would require you to go maybe a little horizontally far a field, some would say. How do you maintain the discipline or do you see yourself at some point considering things that are not nearly so much right down the middle of of cyber?
[嘉宾]: 所以,我告诉你,嗯,直到大约一年半前,我们曾经购买产品公司并将它们放入我们的市场引擎中。我们可以重新连接他们的后端。这样他们就可以更好地利用他们的市场引擎。因此,对我来说,如果我向客户出售 1000 万美元,两年后下次我去时,如果我能向他们出售 20 美元,那么这对我来说是宣传我的市场支出的最有效方式。正确的?这就是模型。我们玩了这个游戏,我们把剧本运行到了 1500 亿美元。然后我们到了这样一个地步:哦,我们看到身份发生了变化。从代理的角度和安全的角度来看,这将很重要。所以我们买了一家价值 250 亿美元的公司,三个月前我们关闭了该公司。嗯,现在实际上是一个非常不同的机会出现了,不同的机会是这样的。如果你能够最擅长利用人工智能来运营世界上最高效的企业业务,那么你的营业利润率可能会远远超过行业,如果你能破解这个密码
Original English
[Speaker A]: So, I tell you what, um, until about an year and a half ago, we used to buy product companies and throw them into our go to market engine. We could rewire their backend. so they can work better with their go to market engine. So for me, if I'm selling $10 million to a customer, next time I go two years later, if I can sell them 20, it's the most efficient way for me to advertise my go to market spend. Right? So that was the model. We played that, we ran that playbook to lots of 150 billion. Then we got to a point where says, oh, we see an inflection arriving in identity. It's going to be important from an agentic perspective, security perspective. So we bought a $25 billion company which we closed 3 months ago. Um now it's actually a very different opportunity has presented itself and the different opportunity sort of goes like this. If you can be the best at leveraging AI to run the most efficient enterprise business in the world your operating margin can be far in excess of the industry and if you can if you can crack that code
[主持人]: 总和净值,你说的是 9 年代的净值,40 年代 50 年代的净值。
Original English
[Speaker B]: gross and net you're saying gross in the '9s net in the 40s50.
[嘉宾]: 是的。如果你能破解这个密码,那么你买什么都没关系。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Yeah. If you can crack that code then it doesn't matter what you buy.
[主持人]: 是的。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Yeah.
[嘉宾]: 所以我认为现在的问题是执行力问题。大多数规模较小的公司无力优化公司并更好地运营。因此,如果我们能够比其他人更好地运营我们的公司,并且拥有更高的营业利润率,那么如果你以 20% 的利润率拿走某样东西,那么华尔街就会说没问题。
Original English
[Speaker A]: So I think the problem right now is execution problem. Most subscale companies cannot afford to go optimize their company and run it better. So if we can run our company much better than everybody else and have a higher operating margin then the street will say fine if you take something at a 20% margin make it a
[主持人]: 你的第一次并购非常艰难。不,就像他们非常怀疑,然后你把它推到他们脸上。当他们发现一个不了解企业网络安全的人出现在谷歌工作时,你会非常怀疑,他们知道,人们离开谷歌并在谷歌之外取得成功的记录仍然存在
Original English
[Speaker B]: your first M&A was really tough. No, like they were pretty skeptical and then you kind of shoved it in their face. you're pretty skeptical when they found a guy who didn't know cyber security into enterprise show up who worked at Google and they're you know the track record of people leaving Google and being successful out of Google is still
[嘉宾]: 你知道多种多样
Original English
[Speaker A]: you know varied
[主持人]: 所以基本上你是说菜单已经打开并且
Original English
[Speaker B]: so basically you're saying the menu is open and
[嘉宾]: 我认为我们需要在接下来的 6 到 12 个月内弄清楚这种人工智能如何稳定下来,以及我们如何在企业中有效地使用它。我想,如果你想一想,你就会知道,人们一直希望我们需要更少的人来经营公司。我实际上有一个相反的观点,我认为我们在帕洛阿尔托的技术方面将比以往任何时候都有更多的人,因为我认为人工智能正在导致一切都要求转型。所以,如果人工智能不存在的话,我现在拥有的技术人员数量比我还要多。
Original English
[Speaker A]: I think we need the next 6 to 12 months to figure out how this AI settles down and how can we use that effectively in enterprises I think if you think about it u you know the the the people keep hoping that less people will be we need to run companies I actually have a counter view I think we're going to have more people at Palo Alto on the technology side than we've ever had before because I think AI is causing everything to ask for a transformation. So I have more technical people today than I would have had if AI didn't exist.
[主持人]: 女士们、先生们,Palo Alto Networks Nicasura 首席执行官。
Original English
[Speaker B]: Ladies and gentlemen, CEO of Palo Alto Networks Nicasura.
[嘉宾]: 谢谢你们。
Original English
[Speaker A]: Thank you guys.
[主持人]: 谢谢先生。 [TRANSCRIPT_END]
Original English
[Speaker B]: Thank you sir. [TRANSCRIPT_END]
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Nikesh Arora
公司/组织: Palo Alto Networks, Google