xAI融资动态与英伟达的角色

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All right, let's stay with the tech space and move over to uh X AI, which is Elon Musk's AI startup. It's raising more financing than initially planned. And Ed Ledllo uh our Bloomberg tech co-host uh joining us from San Francisco to give us a little more context here. Uh XAI is backed by a number of big companies including Nvidia. Tell us how much money it's raising.

好的，我们继续关注科技领域，转向 xAI，这是埃隆·马斯克的 AI 初创公司。它正在筹集比最初计划更多的资金。我们的彭博科技联合主持人 Ed Ledllo 在旧金山加入我们，为我们提供更多背景信息。xAI 得到了包括英伟达在内的多家大公司的支持。请您谈谈它筹集了多少资金？

Yeah. So, it's a very specific mechanism where a special purpose vehicle split between about 12.5 billion of debt and $7.5 billion of equity use the funds to go out and buy GPUs, specifically Nvidia GPUs. XAI then basically rents or leases those GPUs from the investment vehicle over a period of 5 years is what we've been reporting and is is our understanding. And and as part of that, we have broken the news that Nvidia is going to contribute about $2 billion to the equity piece. But but basically what it means is that the investors own the GPUs. They get guaranteed return because XAI has to pay them a fee or a rental fee over the course of the term, but XAI doesn't take all the debt onto its balance sheet. And so this could be a bit of a template, you know, for for how these mega infrastructure deals go going forward.

是的。这是一种非常特殊的机制，一个特殊目的实体（SPV）分为约 125 亿美元的债务和 75 亿美元的股权，利用这笔资金去购买 GPU，特别是英伟达的 GPU。xAI 然后基本上在 5 年的期限内，从该投资实体租用或租赁这些 GPU。这是我们一直在报道的，也是我们的理解。并且，我们已经报道了英伟达将向股权部分出资约 20 亿美元。但基本上，这意味着投资者拥有 GPU。他们能获得有保障的回报，因为 xAI 必须在期限内向他们支付费用或租金，但 xAI 并不会将所有债务都计入其资产负债表。因此，这可能成为未来这些大型基础设施交易的一种模板。

xAI的地理位置与市场定位

Where is X AI Ed? Um, in this AI story here, what's the feeling in in the valley?

xAI 位于何处，Ed？在这个 AI 的故事中，硅谷的普遍感受是怎样的？

Yeah, it's very hard to place because X AI and in particular Elon Musk move very quickly and they have two specific data centers. One is more complete, Colossus 1. And what we're reporting around this financing is the chips for Colossus 2, which they started building in March. And so from an infrastructure standpoint, Jensen Hong has talked about this saying that he's betting Elon Musk can get to 1 gigawatt of capacity first because that's what Elon Musk does. on the actual output side their large language model and and grock we don't have as much evidence or data of the user base and and usership of grock like in the enterprise setting for example we don't know about how uh that particular software that XAI develops is in a competitive environment against like an open AI or anthropic but um largely noises from XAI themselves but others in the valley talk about how it's somewhere that people really want to work, you know, they want to go and work for Elon and and and and and in the talent war context, that's, you know, a big story.

是的，这很难定位，因为 xAI，特别是埃隆·马斯克，行动非常迅速，他们有两个特定的数据中心。其中一个更完整，名为 Colossus 1。我们关于此次融资的报道是关于 Colossus 2 的芯片，他们于 3 月开始建设。因此，从基础设施的角度来看，黄仁勋曾谈到这一点，他说他赌埃隆·马斯克能首先实现 1 吉瓦的产能，因为这就是埃隆·马斯克擅长做的事情。在实际产出方面，他们的 G rok 大型语言模型，我们没有多少关于 G rok 用户群和用户使用情况的证据或数据，例如在企业环境中，我们不清楚 xAI 开发的该特定软件在与 OpenAI 或 Anthropic 等公司竞争的环境中表现如何。但总的来说，主要来自 xAI 自身的消息，但硅谷的其他人士谈论的是，这是一个人们非常想去工作的地方，他们想为埃隆工作。在人才战争的背景下，这是一个大新闻。

交易结构与潜在疑虑

Okay. Thanks for that context, Ed. One thing you mentioned when explaining this deal um that XAI has put together, the fundraising is that Nvidia is one of the backers, but the SPV, the special purpose vehicle, is going to then go out and buy Nvidia chips. This all feels kind of circular, incestuous, if you want to put it another way. Um, is this going to create problems? I mean, are people raising their eyebrows over this? That this all feels very like I'm putting money in so that you can go then buy some of my other stuff?

好的，感谢 Ed 提供的背景信息。您在解释 xAI 这笔融资交易时提到的一点是，英伟达是支持者之一，但 SPV（特殊目的实体）随后将去购买英伟达的芯片。这一切感觉有点循环，甚至是近亲繁殖，如果你想用另一种方式来形容的话。这会引起问题吗？我是说，人们对此是否感到惊讶？这感觉就像我在出钱，以便你能够去购买我的其他一些东西？

So, important. Uh, Jensen Wang, the Nvidia CEO, went on another network an hour ago and basically confirmed our reporting that Nvidia was going to participate, that he wished he could have put more money into this what he called, you know, fundraising. But he also talked about the idea that this mechanism was not traditional venture and it nor is it straight vendor uh vendor financing. Um the circular part is the is the bit that people are most focused on because on paper it's Nvidia saying here's $2 billion which we know uh XAI is going to use indirectly through the SPV to buy $2 billion worth of Nvidia chips. But Jensen Hong did go on to say in that interview that if you take for example the Open AI deal announced in the last 10 days that's a $100 billion agreement over many years and according to Nvidia and Jensen Hang there is no mandatory requirement that OpenAI use that uh uh money. I'm pausing guys because we actually have no idea if it's cash. We have no idea if it's just equity. Um, but but according to Jensen Wong, it's not mandatory for OpenAI to use the proceeds to buy Nvidia gear. They are free to go out and do other deals like they did with AMD.

很重要。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋一小时前在另一个网络上确认了我们的报道，即英伟达将参与其中，并表示他希望能投入更多资金进行这次他称之为“融资”的活动。但他还谈到，这种机制既不是传统的风险投资，也不是直接的供应商融资。循环的部分是人们最关注的焦点，因为表面上看，英伟达提供了 20 亿美元，我们知道 xAI 将通过 SPV 间接用这笔钱购买价值 20 亿美元的英伟达芯片。但黄仁勋在采访中确实表示，如果以过去 10 天宣布的 OpenAI 交易为例，那是一项为期多年、价值 1000 亿美元的协议，根据英伟达和黄仁勋的说法，OpenAI 没有强制要求使用这笔“钱”。我在这里停顿一下，因为我们其实不知道这是否是现金，也不知道这是否仅仅是股权。但根据黄仁勋的说法，OpenAI 没有义务使用这笔款项购买英伟达的设备。他们可以自由地与其他公司进行交易，就像他们与 AMD 合作一样。

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

请继续收听。稍后将带来更多彭博智能分析的内容。

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

您正在收听的是彭博智能分析播客。每周一至周五美国东部时间上午10点，通过 Apple CarPlay 和 Android Auto，并使用 Bloomberg Business App 收听我们的直播。无论您在哪里收听播客，或在 YouTube 上观看我们的直播，都可以点播收听。

广播电视业所有权规则松动前景

A new administration had a lot of industries saying, "Hey, maybe we're going to get some deregulation in our business with this Trump administration." One of those industries uh is the television broadcast industry. There are limits on how many stations you can own nationally. A company can own nationally. There's limits on how many stations uh a company can own in a particular market. Um but there was reason to believe those would be loosened and maybe significantly. And actually some couple M&A deals have been announced in anticipation of those rules loosing. So let's check in with the expert here, Matt Sutton. He's a media litigation analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's down there in DC. So Matt, my FCC, they meet, I think, sometime this month. Are they going to loosen TV ownership rules?

新政府上台后，许多行业都表示：“嘿，在新政府的领导下，我们可能会获得一些放松管制。”电视广播行业就是其中之一。全国范围内对公司可以拥有的电台数量有限制。在特定市场，公司也可以拥有有限数量的电台。但有理由相信这些限制将会放宽，甚至可能大幅放宽。实际上，已经有一些并购交易宣布，正是为了迎接这些规则的放宽。现在让我们来听听专家 Matt Sutton 的看法。他是彭博智能分析的媒体诉讼分析师，在华盛顿特区。Matt，我的 FCC（联邦通信委员会），我想他们这个月会开会。他们会放宽电视所有权规则吗？

Yeah, there was some expectation that that the the deregulatory actions could start as early as this month for for the TV broadcasters. Unfortunately for for the industry, it doesn't look like October is going to be the month for movement on that national ownership cap. Uh Brendan Carr, the FCC chairman, put out the agenda for uh the FCC's monthly meeting and and the this item was not listed on that agenda. Now, he could still add it as late as 7 days before the meeting, uh but that's unlikely. Typically, these things are announced 3 weeks before. So, I still expect the FCC to move pretty quickly on this. The FCC took comments on this uh earlier in the summer. It really should should be a pretty simple order to write up to ease uh that 39% US ownership limit. It's just a matter of getting it done and also the FCC is is you know 80% of the employees are off right now because we have a government shutdown which could be impacting things.

是的，人们曾预期最早可能在本月就针对电视广播公司采取放松管制的行动。但不幸的是，对该行业而言，10 月份似乎不太可能是全国性所有权上限出现变动的月份。FCC 主席 Brendan Carr 公布了 FCC 月度会议的议程，而此项目并未列入议程。他最晚可以在会议前 7 天添加该项目，但这不太可能。通常，这些事项会提前三周公布。因此，我仍然预计 FCC 会在此事上迅速采取行动。FCC 在夏初已就此征求意见。撰写一份简化 39% 美国所有权限制的命令应该是一个相当简单的过程。关键在于何时能完成。此外，由于政府停摆，FCC 目前约 80% 的员工休假，这可能会影响相关进程。

潜在的M&A交易与监管挑战

Okay. So, which companies first of all are most affected by this? Paul mentioned that there was some deal making in anticipation of this. We know that NextStar Media um made a bid for Tegna. It was a $6.2 billion allcash deal. Is that the most glaring example of companies that are directly affected?

好的。那么，首先哪些公司受此影响最大？Paul 提到，有几项交易是预期到这一点而进行的。我们知道 NextStar Media 曾出价收购 Tegna。这是一笔 62 亿美元的全现金交易。这是否是受直接影响的公司中最明显的例子？

That's the that's the biggest one. Scarlet Sinclair is also a big name in this space. Scripts, Gray Media, also big owners of of TV stations, but but the one you you pointed to, the Nextar Tegna deal is the biggest one, a $6.2 billion deal announced in August and as we as we said currently the law limits you to basically reaching 39% of US households. That deal would let Nextstar reach 70 80% of US households. So the deal only can move ahead if this rule is changed. If the rule is eased by the FCC, there's no way the FCC can approve the deal without a change in that rule making first. And and so that's what we're really waiting for. is is action on to to to to ease those rules. And then we're inevitably going to have a a court fight on that question because there there are are strong arguments on on both sides of that one. One side says, "Look, the FCC might like to do that, but this is Congress's role to to ease that 39% US cap. The FCC can't do it itself." I think there's going to be a tough fight on that. The FCC probably can win it, but it's it's it's coming. It just seems kind of silly in digital world here that there are ownership caps like for traditional broadcasters which are fighting for their lives in a world of cord cutting. I mean the economics seem like why wouldn't you do it?

这是最大的一笔交易。Scarlet Sinclair 也是该领域的一家大公司。Scripts、Gray Media 也是电视广播公司的大股东。但您提到的 Nextar Tegna 交易是最大的一笔，于 8 月宣布，交易额达 62 亿美元。正如我们之前所说，目前的法律限制您最多覆盖 39% 的美国家庭。这笔交易将使 Nextstar 覆盖 70%-80% 的美国家庭。因此，只有在规则改变的情况下，该交易才能进行。如果 FCC 放宽了这项规定，那么在规则首先得到修改之前，FCC 绝不可能批准这笔交易。所以，我们真正等待的就是能够放宽这些规则的行动。然后，我们不可避免地会围绕这个问题展开一场法律斗争，因为双方都有强有力的论据。一方认为，“看，FCC 可能想这样做，但放宽这 39% 的美国限额是国会的职责，FCC 自己无法做到。”我认为这场斗争会很艰难。FCC 可能会赢，但这正在到来。在这个数字时代，对于传统广播公司来说，它们在“剪线潮”的世界里挣扎求生，却存在所有权上限，这似乎有些可笑。从经济学角度来看，为什么不这样做呢？

That's exactly the case that the National Association of Broadcasters have been pushing with the FCC really for many years. uh but they've really raised the volume on on that argument in uh recently and it's really resonating with Republicans at the FCC. I think Brendan Carr, the FCC chairman, uh, is really sympathetic to that argument that look, in this world of of all forms of new media online, all the ways that that consumers get media today, and most of those are largely unregulated, that that the the traditional TV broadcast industry would face these these strict limits on how many stations they can own in in local markets in each, you know, in in Chicago, in New York, in DC and a national cap. Both of those don't really make as much sense according to NAB. And and I think that that argument is really resonating with Republicans. Republicans have a majority at the FCC, so they're likely to do their best to to move ahead to ease these rules if they can.

这正是全国广播公司协会多年来一直向 FCC 提出的论点。但他们最近确实加大了宣传力度，而且这个论点确实得到了 FCC 内部共和党人的共鸣。我认为 FCC 主席 Brendan Carr 对这个论点非常同情，他认为，在这个充斥着各种在线新媒体、消费者获取媒体的各种渠道（其中大多数基本不受监管）的世界里，传统电视广播行业却面临着在本地市场（例如芝加哥、纽约、华盛顿特区）以及全国范围内拥有多少电台的严格限制。NAB 认为，这两项限制都已不再那么有意义。我认为这个论点确实得到了共和党人的认同。共和党人在 FCC 占多数，所以如果可能的话，他们很可能会尽最大努力推进并放宽这些规则。

流媒体监管的法律局限性

That's for traditional broadcasting. Then you've got the streamers, right? Sky Dance, which is of course uh the owner of Paramount Global, is or was reportedly planning to make a bid for Warner Brothers Discovery. that actually hasn't come through yet, but that is something that is outside the FCC's jurisdiction. The FCC plays no part in any of this.

这是针对传统广播业的。然后是流媒体服务，对吧？Sky Dance，也就是派拉蒙全球的所有者，据报道曾计划竞标华纳兄弟探索公司。这笔交易实际上尚未实现，但它属于 FCC 的管辖范围之外。FCC 在其中不发挥任何作用。

Well, so it it's it's a debated point that some have pushed to say, look, maybe the FCC should be regulating those over top over-the-top video providers like YouTube TV, like these streamers. Again, the problem though is is that the FCC is confined by a law that was written in 1934 and then updated in 1996. and and and it's often a struggle uh for the FCC to extend its authority uh to online providers and and so the Obama FCC was actually ready to move ahead with a rule making to do just that, but it never went anywhere. And and and I think the the reason is when you read the law, it's really a stretch to say that the FCC can can reach those new oviders the way it has traditionally regulated broadcasters. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

嗯，这是一个有争议的观点，一些人曾推动表示，也许 FCC 应该监管像 YouTube TV 这样的“过顶”视频提供商，以及这些流媒体服务。然而，问题在于 FCC 受限于一部写于 1934 年、后于 1996 年更新的法律。FCC 常常难以将其管辖权扩展到在线提供商。奥巴马时期的 FCC 曾准备就此启动一项 rulemaking 程序，但最终不了了之。我认为原因在于，当你阅读这部法律时，很难说 FCC 能够像监管传统广播公司那样，将其管辖权延伸到这些新的提供商。请继续收听。稍后将带来更多彭博智能分析的内容。

You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

您正在收听的是彭博智能分析播客。每周一至周五美国东部时间上午10点，通过 Apple CarPlay 和 Android Auto，并使用 Bloomberg Business App 收听我们的直播。无论您在哪里收听播客，或在 YouTube 上观看我们的直播，都可以点播收听。

戴尔的AI服务器业务展望

One of the big movers uh of late, of course, is Dell and that's because of its AI server business. that part of the business has really taken off and we want to bring in now Wujun Hoe Bloomberg intelligence senior technology analyst on the highlights from Dell's investor day and Ujin one of the things that Dell did was kind of lay out a vision as Ed Ledllo was telling us a an outlook a plan for the next couple of years which I find remarkable given that this is such a fastmoving industry that you know companies need to update their guidance every quarter and this company is talking about its guidance to 2030.

近期一个重要的市场动态无疑是戴尔，这得益于其 AI 服务器业务的蓬勃发展。我们现在请出彭博智能分析资深技术分析师 Wujun Hoe，他将分享戴尔投资者日的亮点。Ujin，戴尔所做的一件事是，正如 Ed Ledllo 所说，他们描绘了一个未来几年的愿景、展望和计划，这在当今快速变化的行业中令人瞩目，要知道，公司通常每个季度都需要更新业绩指引，而这家公司却在谈论其 2030 年的业绩指引。

Yeah. Hey, Scarlet. So, uh I know how you ended the last segment with Kyle Banga. I'm going to start this segment with got to get, you know, got to get a Dell, right? So, um look, uh this is this is a very seasoned management team. They have a tendency to give out three to four year uh guidance plans. Um I I think the surprise here is what's driving um that uh 7 to 9% growth outlook for uh from 2026 to 2020 uh for 2030 and it's going to be AI servers right and one of the things that they said at the analyst day that AI servers are going to grow at a 20 to 25% compounded rate. Um I I think there was some skepticism there uh heading into the into the print in terms of is there an AI bubble and by laying out a 20 to 25% AI server growth going through 2030 off of already high numbers shows that there is some durability to AI server demand.

是的。嗨，Scarlet。我记得你上一个环节结束时提到了 Kyle Banga。我将在本环节开始时说，我们“得买戴尔”，对吧？你看，这是一支经验非常丰富的管理团队。他们倾向于给出三到四年的业绩指引计划。我认为令人惊喜的是，是什么推动了 2026 年至 2030 年 7% 至 9% 的增长预期？答案是 AI 服务器。他们在分析师日表示，AI 服务器将以 20% 至 25% 的复合年增长率增长。我认为在财报发布前，市场对是否存在 AI 泡沫持 काही 怀疑态度。但通过展望到 2030 年，在已处于高位的基础上，AI 服务器仍能实现 20% 至 25% 的增长，这表明 AI 服务器的需求具有一定的可持续性。

All right, I'm looking at the ANR function for Dell Technologies. 23 buys on Wall Street, six holds and no sells. So looks like the street's buying off on on what on the message here. So Woodge, when you get an analyst meeting together, it's a big day for a company. They put a lot of time and effort in putting getting their senior management together, putting together presentations, presenting a vision here. What were some of the two or three takeaways from you from this this investor day yesterday?

好的，我正在查看戴尔科技的 ANR（分析师评级）数据。华尔街有 23 个买入评级，6 个持有评级，没有卖出评级。看来市场对他们的信息是买账的。Woodge，分析师会议对公司来说是一个重要的日子。他们投入大量时间和精力来组织高管团队、准备演示文稿、展示愿景。您从昨天的投资者日中有什么两到三个最重要的收获？

Yeah. So, so the the one highlight here is uh the AI server demand, the durability of AI server demand. Uh but more importantly, um and we talk about this all the time, you know, Paul, it's it's about earnings and cash flow, right? And the end of the day, uh, we're talking about EPS growth about 15%. And how do we get to that 15%? We're talking about 8% of the, uh, sales growth dropping down to the bottom line, but given all of that cash generation that they're uh, given all that cash generation, there's going to be a fair amount of capital returns, uh, through buybacks. So, you're going to get a lift on EPS there. So, shareholders are going to be happy uh, from uh, from an EPS standpoint. We're already seeing that from from a valuation standpoint uh because it is lifting from an 8 to 10 times PE to about 15 times growth which makes it into a one times peg another story that we're tracking here and that I've been fascinated by is this idea of legacy tech companies um finding their feet in this AI wave uh whether it's Oracle, whether it's Dell and now Cisco as well. Cisco is releasing a new chip and networking system uh to connect AI data centers and this is a move that pretty much puts it in more direct competition with Broadcom. How big of an opportunity is this for Cisco and should Broadcom be worried?

是的。所以，一个亮点是 AI 服务器的需求，以及 AI 服务器需求的持久性。但更重要的是，我们一直在谈论，Paul，这关乎收益和现金流，对吧？归根结底，我们谈论的是每股收益（EPS）增长约 15%。我们如何实现这 15%？我们谈论的是 8% 的销售增长转化为利润，但考虑到他们所有的现金流生成能力，公司将通过股票回购进行相当多的资本回报。因此，您的每股收益将有所提升。从每股收益的角度来看，股东们会感到满意。我们已经看到了这一点，从估值的角度来看，因为市盈率从 8-10 倍提升到约 15 倍的增长，使其市盈率增长比率（PEG）达到 1。我们还在关注的另一个故事，也是我一直很感兴趣的，就是老牌科技公司在 AI 浪潮中找到立足点的想法，无论是 Oracle、Dell，还是现在的 Cisco。Cisco 正在发布一款新的芯片和网络系统，用于连接 AI 数据中心，这一举措使其与 Broadcom 处于更直接的竞争关系。这对 Cisco 来说是一个多大的机会？Broadcom 应该感到担忧吗？

Cisco与Broadcom的竞争格局

Yeah. So, so we we published a React uh this this morning and and essentially I don't think Broadcom should be fully worried. There's a couple of things that I'll say, right? Cisco is actually one of the biggest chip networking chip manufacturers uh globally uh but more for their legacy enterprise IT chips, right? They they produce their own chips that that powers their own networking gear. Uh they're fairly newer to the game in the uh the networking uh chip side. Uh from a revenue standpoint, it's really not a big driver. Uh but it may be able to push more boxes. A couple things that I'll say. They did about $1 billion in uh AI backend revenue, but to put that into context, um you know, they're doing about 55 to 56 billion in total sales. So, you know, from from an overall percentage of AI as an overall percentage of sales, it's still about 2 to 3% of total sales. Are they going to challenge Broadcom? I I I I doubt it, but I do think there'll be a second source uh to the cloud providers uh uh versus Broadcom.

是的。我们今天早上发布了一份报告，本质上我认为 Broadcom 不必完全担忧。有几点我想说明一下。Cisco 实际上是全球最大的芯片网络芯片制造商之一，但主要面向其传统的企业 IT 芯片。他们生产自己的芯片，为自己的网络设备提供动力。在网络芯片方面，他们算是新进入者。从收入角度来看，这并不是一个重要的增长驱动因素。但它可能有助于推动更多设备的销售。有几点我想说一下。他们在 AI 后端业务方面实现了约 10 亿美元的收入，但为了更好地说明这一点，他们的总销售额约为 550 亿至 560 亿美元。因此，从 AI 占总销售额的整体百分比来看，仍然只有大约 2% 至 3%。他们会挑战 Broadcom 吗？我对此表示怀疑，但我确实认为他们将成为云服务提供商相对于 Broadcom 的第二个选择来源。

AI投资的优选赛道

Wooge, in your coverage area, what's your best AI play? Because I'm sure you get that call from clients all the time. You know, I I mean, uh I I have a handful. Uh Dell was one. Um you know, HP is another one to to take a look out for. Uh they have an analyst day next week. uh but uh from from a networking standpoint, Arista has actually been one of the high-f flyers uh from from the u from from a networking uh standpoint. So I I I would look at Arista and uh people have been uh taking the AI networking angle uh and and using uh Arista as one of the tools.

Wooge，在您的覆盖范围内，您最好的 AI 投资是什么？因为我确信您经常接到客户的咨询电话。我手头有几个。戴尔是一个。惠普（HP）是另一个值得关注的。他们下周将召开分析师日。但在网络方面，Arista 实际上一直是网络领域表现出色的公司之一。所以我建议关注 Arista，人们一直在关注 AI 网络领域，并将其作为一种投资工具。

I like that. Orisa, I haven't heard that one come up yet, you know. Um HPE or HPQ, just to clarify.

我喜欢这个。Arista，我以前没怎么听过。HPE 或 HPQ，请您澄清一下。

Oh, HPE. So think think of it as a mini Dell and a mini Cisco in one. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

哦，HPE。可以把它看作是迷你版的戴尔和迷你版的思科的结合体。请继续收听。稍后将带来更多彭博智能分析的内容。

全球汽车市场：中国区挑战与特斯拉降价

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Let's get back to the markets here. The auto business in particular. BMW took some guidance down here today citing weak demand out of China. That can't be good. So let's get the latest on what's happening in the global auto uh space here. Steve man joins us, Bloomberg Intelligence, global autos and industrials research analyst. So let's start with the BMW news here. Uh Steve, BMW cuts annual guidance on weak China sales and tariff costs. What's going on there?

让我们回到市场。特别是汽车业务。宝马今天因中国需求疲软而下调了业绩指引。这肯定不是个好消息。那么，让我们来了解一下全球汽车市场的最新动态。Steve Man 加入我们，他是彭博智能分析的全球汽车和工业研究分析师。Steve，宝马因中国销量疲软和关税成本削减年度业绩指引。这到底是怎么回事？

Yeah, seems like it's going to never it seems like it's in a neverending uh cycle here. Um what's happening to BMW and China is not new. It's not new to them. Everybody, every foreign automaker is actually facing the pressure there. It's a hyper competitive market. Pricing has been spiraling down. Uh and the you know the uh uh the automakers, local automakers there are actually gaining a lot of traction with the consumer. Um consumers there are um you know techsavvy. Um they're looking for tech heavy vehicles. And even though the foreign automakers are, you know, redesigning the screens to make it look jazzy, colorful, um, but it still, I think, lacks the capabilities that, uh, the the consumer wants over there.

是的，似乎陷入了一个永无止境的循环。宝马在中国遇到的情况并非新鲜事，对他们而言也是如此。每家外国汽车制造商在那里都面临着压力。这是一个高度竞争的市场，价格一直在螺旋式下降。而且，那里的本土汽车制造商正在获得消费者的青睐。那里的消费者精通技术，他们正在寻找技术含量高的车辆。尽管外国汽车制造商在重新设计屏幕，使其看起来花哨、色彩鲜艳，但我认为，这仍然缺乏消费者所期望的功能。

中国本土汽车品牌的崛起

Are there any foreign automakers that are holding on to market share? Not really. I mean, relatively speaking, I think the uh the the Japanese are a little bit better, but they are still losing market share. uh you know like companies like Ford has you know dwindled down their operation to a minimal uh over there um even other uh European automakers like Pujo Citron you know they they've essentially exited that market so um you know the the Chinese local automakers like BYD and J are really coming out with really attractive product and and at prices that are you know uh hard to beat. Yeah, I remember a long time ago it seemed like every Chinese government official was in a black Audi. Audi was like the car, the foreign car in China. Th those days are long gone, aren't they?

有外国汽车制造商能守住市场份额吗？情况并非如此。相对而言，我认为日本汽车制造商表现稍好，但他们仍在失去市场份额。像福特这样的公司在那里已经大大缩减了业务。甚至像标致雪铁龙这样的其他欧洲汽车制造商，他们基本上已经退出了那个市场。所以，像比亚迪和集度这样的中国本土汽车制造商正在推出极具吸引力的产品，而且价格也极具竞争力。是的，我记得很久以前，似乎中国的每位政府官员都开着一辆黑色的奥迪。奥迪曾是中国外国车的代表。那些日子早已一去不复返，不是吗？

Those days are long gone. You know, when Xi Jinping came in and started cracking down on corruption, uh those types of uh exhibition of of wealth is is pretty much disappeared. Um and you know, then the consumer there are actually getting more sophisticated, right? um they're looking for value for money and uh over the past couple decades, you know, the local automakers have actually learned quite a bit from the foreign automakers setting up shops there and they've learned a lot about product design. They've learned about a lot about uh uh manufacturing and obviously the local automakers there have an advantage, right? They understand the consumer uh over there and and what they want really want.

那些日子早已一去不复返。当习近平上台并开始打击腐败时，那种炫富式的行为几乎消失了。而且，那里的消费者实际上也越来越成熟。他们看重性价比。在过去的几十年里，本土汽车制造商从在那里设厂的外国汽车制造商那里学到了很多东西，他们对产品设计和制造都学了很多。显然，本土汽车制造商在那里拥有优势，他们了解那里的消费者以及他们真正想要的东西。

特斯拉降价策略与EV市场竞争

Switch gears, uh, Steve, to Tesla. Uh, they've launched their cheaper version. I guess it's under $40,000. Um, what's your reaction? What's the market's reaction?

换个话题，Steve，聊聊特斯拉。他们推出了更便宜的版本，我猜价格在 4 万美元以下。您怎么看？市场有什么反应？

Yeah. Uh, I think the market is somewhat disappointed. Um, because Elon Musk has projected, you know, for the last few years that they would introduce a vehicle that's $25,000 or maybe even cheaper. Obviously, there's inflation. Um, but I think the uh the market was expecting something uh more price competitive. But in any case, uh it is a cheaper model. Uh it's about, you know, $67,000 cheaper than the higher uh the next variant up um for the Model Y, Model 3. Uh really uh look it's I don't think it's going to make a huge impact on Tesla sales given that a lot of sales been pulled forward right just before the end of the 7500 EV tax credit but it does create a more intense competitive market in the US. Look these vehicles are actually directly competing with the likes of the Chevy uh Equinox uh EV from GM and the Ford Mache. So, uh, uh, you know, I think, uh, you know, we got cheaper vehicles coming in in a softening, uh, market. So, it's going to be interesting to see.

是的。我认为市场有些失望。因为埃隆·马斯克多年来一直预测他们将推出一款 25,000 美元甚至更便宜的车型。显然，通货膨胀是存在的。但我认为市场期待的是更具价格竞争力的产品。但无论如何，这确实是一款更便宜的车型。它比 Model Y 和 Model 3 的更高配置版本便宜约 67,000 美元。说实话，我认为它不会对特斯拉的销量产生巨大影响，因为许多销量已经被提前了，就在 7500 美元 EV 税收抵免结束前。但这确实在美国创造了一个更激烈的竞争市场。看，这些车型实际上直接与通用雪佛兰 Equinox EV 和福特 Mach-E 等车型竞争。所以，我认为，我们将看到更便宜的汽车进入一个疲软的市场。这将会很有趣。

Wait, so the Ford and the Chevy cars, those models you cited, those are the cheapest on the market right now. What What do they retail for right now?

等等，您提到的福特和雪佛兰车型，它们是目前市场上最便宜的车型吗？它们现在的零售价是多少？

Yeah, they are around 33 34 35,000.

是的，它们大约在 33,000、34,000、35,000 美元左右。

Okay. So, no one has 25,000 then. Uh, no. Well, not yet. Uh, I think we'll have to see. Uh looks like uh you know GM will is expected to launch the Chevy Bolt. Uh if you remember Chevy Bolt is you know one of the most popular GM EVs and yeah it's a relaunch redesign with new battery uh a lower cost structure now. I don't think that vehicle is going to get down to to 25,000 but it looks like it's going to be below 30,000.

好的。那么，还没有 25,000 美元的车型了。呃，没有。嗯，至少目前还没有。我认为我们得拭目以待。看起来通用汽车预计将推出雪佛兰 Bolt。如果您还记得，雪佛兰 Bolt 是通用汽车最受欢迎的电动汽车之一，它将重新推出重新设计，配备新电池，并采用更低的成本结构。我认为这款车可能不会降到 25,000 美元，但看起来会低于 30,000 美元。

So what I mean are you an EV person? No, because I don't have a garage and so if I don't have a garage, how am I going to charge this vehicle?

那么，我的意思是，您是电动汽车的拥护者吗？不是，因为我没有车库，如果我没有车库，我该怎么给这辆车充电呢？

Good point. You know, I went the hybrid route for the most recent question. I like the idea of a hybrid route, but apparently those um I don't know the car parts, but it's easy to steal and therefore you can move up to, you know, this is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday 10:00 a.m. to noon Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeart Radio app. TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

说得好。我最近考虑了混合动力汽车。我喜欢混合动力汽车的想法，但据称那些……我不知道汽车零件，但它们很容易被盗，因此你可以选择……这是彭博智能分析播客，可在 Apple、Spotify 和其他任何播客平台收听。每周一至周五美国东部时间上午 10 点至中午，通过 Bloomberg.com、iHeart Radio app、TuneIn 和 Bloomberg Business app 收听直播。您也可以在每周一至周五观看我们的 YouTube 直播，并且始终可以在彭博终端上收听。