战术质变:喷气无人机持续压迫基辅与防空拦截危机
在乌克兰首都基辅(Kyiv),过去几年来无人机与导弹袭击已极其频繁,甚至让包括战地记者在内的许多当地居民对防空警报逐渐麻木。然而,近期基辅的安全局势出现了显著恶化。《纽约时报》乌克兰战地报道团队成员希奥班·奥格雷迪(Siobhan O'Grady)指出,俄罗斯改变了以往夜间波次袭击乌克兰城市的传统战术,转向采用全天候、不间断的无人机轰炸模式。据乌克兰总统透露,仅在过去一周的短短4天内,俄罗斯就向乌克兰境内发射了近1,500架无人机,其中一次袭击命中基辅郊区的武器库,造成至少37人丧生。
除了攻击频率的剧增,俄方使用的武器类型也发生了本质变化。目前投入的大部分无人机均配备了喷气发动机(Jet Engines),飞行速度极快,导致居民往往来不及寻找掩体,甚至在无人机击中目标前根本听不到熟悉的引擎嗡鸣声。此次俄罗斯的攻势升级,恰逢乌克兰官方警告其用于拦截弹道导弹的防空拦截弹(Interceptors)已处于危险的短缺状态。这一切彻底改变了基辅居民的日常应对方式:人们开始密切查看无人机逼近城市的实时追踪地图,在户外遛狗或露天餐厅用餐时习惯空中不断传来的爆炸声与巨响。基辅所面临的危险程度,已攀升至2022年全面战争爆发以来的最高峰。乌克兰官员认为,俄罗斯的新一轮密集打击旨在消耗民众士气并从经济上瘫痪首都;而俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)在记者会上发出威胁,声称对乌克兰城市、能源基础设施及黑海关键港口的打击可能在该国引发严重的金融危机。
Original English Source
From the New York Times, it's the headlines. I'm Will Jarvis in for Tracy Mumford. Today's Wednesday, September 2nd. Here's what we're covering.
So, here in Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, drone and missile attacks have become so common over the last few years that people, including myself, have really stopped responding to the air raid alarms. But the sense of danger in Kiev lately has really increased. Shiovanogrady is part of a team of Times reporters covering the war in Ukraine.
The most common Russian tactic used to be sending waves of drones overnight into Kiev and other Ukrainian cities. But last week, Russia started using a new tactic. Now they're sending drones constantly into Kev, literally non-stop.
Siobhan says that according to Ukraine's president, over the course of just 4 days in the past week, Russia launched nearly 1,500 drones into Ukraine, including one that hit a weapons depot in the Kiev suburbs, killing at least 37 people. She says that beyond the new frequency of the attacks, the type of weapons Russia is using is also changing.
The drones are powered by jet engines, most of them, and so they fly really, really fast. fast enough that you don't even have a chance to hide sometimes or hear the familiar hum of the drone before it hits its target. And this huge escalation from Russia is coming at the same time that Ukraine has been warning that they're running very dangerously low on interceptors that can intercept ballistic missiles.
So all of this put together has really changed how people here are responding. Ukrainians are now checking live maps of drones as they advance on the city, getting used to just the constant sound of explosions in the sky. Even as people are walking their dogs, eating at outdoor restaurants, you'll just hear this boom and understand that another drone has just been shot down or has landed somewhere. And it really has made the city feel like it's at its most dangerous moment since the very beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022.
Siobhan says that Ukrainian officials have framed the new surge of Russian attacks as a strategy to both wear down morale and paralyze the capital economically. And at a press conference yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened that Russian strikes across Ukraine targeting cities, energy infrastructure, and key ports on the Black Sea might spark a financial crisis in the country.
司法对抗与技术风险:美国邮政局选民数据库吹哨风波
在美国国内政治与选举层面,美国邮政局(US Postal Service: 负责全美公共邮政运营的联邦独立机构)的一位内部吹哨人发出警告,指控该机构正公然违反法院禁令,暗中推进前总统特朗普试图对邮寄投票(Mail-in Voting)施加联邦控制的计划。今年早些时候,特朗普签署了一项行政令,旨在建立一个全国性的选民数据库,并可能禁止邮政局向不配合该数据库建设的州递送选票。尽管该行政令迅速遭遇多起法律诉讼挑战,其最激进的条款已被法院紧急叫停,但吹哨人披露,邮政局高层仍在幕后秘密推进该计划,包括搭建选民数据库系统。
该吹哨人身为美国邮政局现任官员,直言这一数据库的建设过程极其仓促且杂乱无章,极有可能导致邮寄选票系统发生“灾难性瘫痪”。技术层面上,新系统存在严重漏洞:同一批次中只要有一张选票上的条形码扫描失败,系统就可能误判并剔除整批多达数万张选票。该官员指控,这种情况可能导致全美数百万选民无法正常获取或寄递选票。对此,美国邮政局在声明中承认正在继续推进数据库相关工作,但坚称其所有操作均严格处于法院许可的法律边界之内。随着围绕该行政令的司法博弈一路升级至美国联邦最高法院(Supreme Court),多位选举法专家警告称,在距离中期选举(Midterms)仅剩两个月之际,这起争端正给整个选举流程带来巨大的混乱。与此同时,部分州选举官员正呼吁选民尽早寄回选票,并在各地增设选票投递箱(Dropboxes),以便民众绕过邮政系统直接完成投票。
Original English Source
At the US Postal Service, a whistleblower is sounding the alarm, alleging that the agency is defying court orders and pushing ahead with President Trump's effort to exert federal control over mail-in voting.
Earlier this year, Trump signed an executive order that would create a national database of voters and could bar the postal service from sending ballots to people in states that don't cooperate. That effort was quickly challenged in a number of lawsuits and the most aggressive parts of the plan were blocked in court. But the whistleblower says that behind the scenes, the USPS is secretly moving forward with the plan, including by building out a voter database.
The whistleblower, a USPS official, said that's been a rushed and haphazard process and could lead to a quote catastrophic failure in the mail ballot system. They warned the new technology could potentially reject tens of thousands of ballots in a single batch if even one barcode on one ballot failed to scan. The official alleged that overall millions of voters could have trouble getting their ballots.
In a statement, the postal service confirmed that it has been continuing to work on the database, but said that it was within the bounds of what the court had allowed. With the multiple legal challenges to Trump's executive order playing out in the courts all the way up to the Supreme Court, some election experts have warned that the situation is bringing a swirl of chaos and confusion to the elections process with just 2 months to go until the midterms.
Meanwhile, some state election officials are urging voters to get their ballots in as early as possible and are installing more dropboxes so that people can return their ballots without going through the postal service.
通胀预期与主权赤字:全球国债收益率走高与实体经济传导
在过去的几周里,全球金融市场出现剧烈动荡,投资者纷纷加速抛售主权政府债券(Government Bonds: 政府为筹措资金向公众及机构发行的债务凭证)。债券本质上是投资者向政府出借资金的工具,例如在美国,购买10年、20年或30年期国债可在到期时连本带利收回资金,其利率在金融术语中被称为债券收益率(Bond Yield)。长期以来,美国国债被全球资本视作极具稳定性的避险资产;但当投资者对宏观经济前景产生担忧时,他们便会要求更高的收益率以确保回报,直接推动30年期美国国债收益率徘徊在近二十年来的最高水平。
《纽约时报》首席经济记者本·卡塞尔曼(Ben Casselman)对此解析指出,推动收益率飙升的最直观动因是通货膨胀(Inflation):如果借给政府1,000美元期限为10年,在通胀侵蚀下未来的1,000美元购买力将大幅缩水,投资者必须索取更高的利息回报以对冲购买力贬值。与通胀并行的深层原因在于,全球多国政府目前普遍背负着巨额财政赤字(Fiscal Deficits),借债规模不断扩张,令市场对政府未来的偿债能力产生疑虑,进而推高了风险补偿利率。这一金融层面的变动正迅速穿透并传导至实体经济:居民申请房贷时,房贷利率直接锚定10年期美国国债收益率,导致购房按揭成本显著上升;汽车贷款利率水涨船高;企业为建厂或购置设备而借贷融资的成本也大幅提高。原本看似晦涩抽象的债券市场指标,正对普通大众的现实生活产生广泛而实质的影响。
Original English Source
Around the world over the past few weeks, there's been a surge of volatility in the financial markets with investors rushing to sell off government bonds.
Now, just to break this down, bonds are bits of government debt. Essentially, a way for you, me, or anyone to lend money to the government. In the US, you can buy bonds or other debt and get paid back in 10 years or 20 or 30 with interest. In bond market lingo, the interest rate is called a yield. Investors generally view those American bonds as an especially stable place to put their money. But when they start feeling uneasy about the economy, that can change, leading them to demand higher yields so they can feel confident they'll still get a good return. That's what's happening now with yields on 30-year US Treasury bonds hovering around a two decade high.
There are a bunch of explanations for this. The simplest one is inflation. If I'm going to lend the government $1,000 for 10 years, at the end of that, my $1,000 is going to be worth less. And so I need them to give me a return that's going to make up for that.
Ben Castleman is the Times chief economics correspondent. At the same time, governments around the world are running large deficits. They're borrowing more money and investors are getting nervous about whether they'll be able to pay that off. And so what we're seeing is investors demanding higher returns, higher interest rates in order to lend government's money.
Higher bond yields ripple through the economy in all sorts of ways. If you're trying to buy a house, your mortgage rate is based on the 10-year Treasury yield. And so, you're going to have to pay more to get your mortgage. You're going to have to pay more to buy a car. Your company is going to have to pay more to borrow money to build a factory or buy a piece of equipment. And so, these seemingly esoteric changes in the world of finance have really substantial real world implications.
控温防线失守与高龄极限徒步:联合国气候报告与91岁传奇纪录
在环境治理领域,大约十年前几乎所有国家的领导人齐聚法国签署了具有里程碑意义的《巴黎协定》(Paris Agreement),承诺共同努力将全球平均气温升幅控制在工业化前水平的1.5摄氏度(约合2.7华氏度)以内。然而,联合国(UN)发布的最新评估报告明确指出,尽管风能和太阳能等可再生能源取得了巨大进展,但由于全球范围内石油、天然气和煤炭的燃烧消耗仍在持续,该控温目标宣告失败,全球平均气温正处于跨越1.5度临界门槛的边缘。联合国敦促各国竭力遏制气温在此基准之上的进一步攀升,但报告指出,即便是最乐观的情景下,这也需要以极大规模从大气层中直接捕集抽取温室气体。随着碳排放继续上升,热浪、洪水等极端天气事件将进一步加剧。一位未参与该研究的专家向《纽约时报》直言:“只要我们缺乏政治意愿,我们设立的每一个减排目标都将被逐一踏破。”
在人文与户外领域,现年91岁的高龄长者戴尔·桑德斯(Dale Sanders)本周刷新纪录,成为全程徒步完赛阿巴拉契亚小道(Appalachian Trail: 纵贯美国东部、全长超2,000英里从佐治亚州延伸至缅因州的著名步道)的最年长者。在步道上被称为“灰胡子”(Greybeard)的桑德斯表示,相较于2017年他以82岁高龄首次创下该纪录时,91岁再次挑战的难度翻了一倍。在此期间,另一位被称作“敏捷威尔游侠”(Nimble Will Nomad)的银发徒步者曾在桑德斯的鼓励与陪跑下刷新了该项纪录;而过去一年中,桑德斯决定重新夺回荣誉,他将全程拆解为大约12英里的分段,并在沿途的卡车露营车中休息过夜。这辆露营车由包括“敏捷威尔游侠”在内的轮值志愿者队伍负责驾驶接应。沿途其他徒步者的合影鼓励与认可成为了桑德斯源源不断的动力,他幽默地表示:“每次拿到某种年龄纪录,我觉得自己的寿命大概就又延长了几年。”
节目最后预告了深度报道特辑:一名身处约旦河西岸(West Bank)巴勒斯坦裔美国人的亲历故事,其住所目前正遭到以色列极端定居者的围困与行动封锁。该期内容已在《纽约时报》音频应用上线播出。
Original English Source
About a decade ago in France, the leaders of nearly every country in the world got together and agreed on a major effort to slow down global warming. Under what became known as the Paris Agreement, the countries pledged to try to limit global temperature rise to 1.5° C above pre-industrial levels. That's about 2.7° F.
But a new report published today by the UN says that that effort has failed despite major advancements in wind and solar power. The UN says the average global temperature is now on the brink of crossing that 1.5° threshold as countries have continued to burn oil, gas, and coal. The UN called on countries to limit how far temperatures climb beyond that. But even under the most optimistic scenarios, that would be a major challenge and would require finding ways to pull greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere at a massive scale. The report said that for now, as carbon emissions continue to climb, extreme weather events that have become common, like heat waves and floods, will continue to intensify. And one expert who wasn't involved in the study told the Times, quote, "So long as we fail to find political will, we will be marching past every target we put out there."
And finally, it's not a sport normally participated in by older people, but maybe they'll start coming out now after I'm set an example. This week, 91-year-old Dale Sanders set the record as the oldest person to ever hike the Appalachian Trail, which covers more than 2,000 miles from Georgia to Maine.
There's a huge, huge difference between hiking the trail at 82 years old and at 91. Huge difference.
Sanders, who goes by the trail name Greybeard, says he felt the hike was about twice as hard as the last time he did it. That was back in 2017 when he initially set the age record as an oh so young ever so spry 82-year-old. In the years since, another gay-haired hiker known as Nimble Will Nomad had taken the title with Sanders encouragement. Sanders says he actually joined him on the trail for the final push so that he wouldn't give up. But Sanders felt like he might just be able to take the record back. And over the last year, he managed to complete the entire trail in roughly 12m chunks, sleeping in his truck camper along the way. The truck was driven by a rotating cast of volunteers, including Nimblewheil Nomad, who got his chance to repay Sanders generosity. Over the course of the journey, Sanders became a trail legend with other hikers stopping to take selfies or joining him for sections of the hike, something he told the Times helped keep him going and going and going. Meeting people on the trail is really exciting. That's very motivating, the recognition.
And so, every time I've gotten some form of age record, I think it probably add years to my life. [laughter]
Those are the headlines today on the daily.
Where are you physically right now? I am currently in my house in the West Bank under siege by Israeli settlers, extremists. We are not allowed to leave the property.
The story of one Palestinian American who's at the center of the escalating violence in the West Bank. You can listen to that in the New York Times app or wherever you get your podcasts. And if you are not a Time subscriber yet, you can get a full month of free access to everything we publish when you download the Times app now. I'm Will Jarvis. We'll be back tomorrow.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Vladimir Putin, Dale Sanders
公司/组织: United States Postal Service, United Nations
媒体/书籍: The New York Times, The Daily