你看，我们习惯了作为美国最亲密的盟友和最大的贸易伙伴之一。然后唐纳德·特朗普总统上台了。他一再威胁要吞并加拿大，并坚信我们占了美国的便宜。
英文原文
Look, we are used to being one of the United States's closest allies and largest trading partners. Then came President Donald Trump. He's repeatedly threatened to annex Canada and he's convinced we're taking advantage of America.加拿大长期以来一直在贸易上占我们便宜。
英文原文
>> Canada's been ripping us off for a long time on trade.那么，我们最近的贸易谈判进展顺利吗？你可能已经知道，答案绝对是否定的。它们在最后一刻破裂了。而根据卡尼（Carney）的说法，美方是“要得太多，给得太少”。现在，美国对加拿大加征了更多关税，而加拿大的反制关税也就在本周生效了。哦，这场贸易战还在一个湖泊的命名上引发了口水战，而且这个湖离我们非常近。
英文原文
>> So, did our recent trade talks go well? As you're probably already aware, that's a definite no. They collapsed at the last minute. And according to Carney, the US quote asked too much and offered too little. Now we've got more US tariffs on Canada and the Canadian counter tariffs that took effect just this week. Oh, and the trade war also triggered a war of words over a lake and it's pretty close to home.我们将立即把安大略湖（Lake Ontario）的名称更改为美利坚湖（Lake America）。毫不意外，安大略人并不愿意配合。省长道格·福特（Doug Ford）明确把态度挑明了。那么，特朗普的改名重要吗？这一切对我们与美国的关系意味着什么？我们深入探讨这种关系发生了多大改变，以及它是否还能恢复？我是贾纳尔登（Janalden）。欢迎收看《简报》（The Rundown）。
英文原文
>> We're going to be changing the name of Lake Ontario effective immediately to Lake America. No surprise, Ontarians aren't willing to play along. Premier Doug Ford literally spelled it out. So, does Trump's name change matter? And what does all this mean for our relationship with the states? We dig into how much it's changed and whether it'll ever recover? I'm Janalden. Welcome to the rundown.地名政治与改名争议
这是特朗普正在使用的一套更广泛的手法的一部分，在某种意义上是为了重塑我们对现实的感知。我叫鲁本·罗斯-雷德伍德（Reuben Rose-Redwood），是维多利亚大学的地理学教授，我的研究关注地名政治和文化景观研究。在美国，给地理实体重新命名的常规程序是：有一个美国地名委员会（US Board on Geographic Names），他们下设国内地名委员会和国外地名委员会，负责审议提案。事实上，任何人都可以向美国地名委员会提交提案。它需要经历多层级的广泛磋商程序。如果是一个跨国地理实体，那么在目前这种情况下，它还会提交给加拿大地名委员会。我们早在2009年命名萨利希海（Salish Sea）时就见识过这一点，当时两国在州/省以及国家层面共同合作，为边境的一处跨国水域重新命名。
英文原文
This is part of a broader uh playbook that Trump is using uh to um to kind of reshape our sense of reality in a sense. So my name is Ruben Rose Redwood and I'm a professor of geography at the University of Victoria and I my research looks at the politics of place naming and cultural landscape studies. The conventional process of renaming geographic places in the United States is that uh there's a the US board on geographic names. Uh they have a domestic and an in a foreign uh names committees uh and they uh consider proposals. Anyone in fact can submit a proposal to the US board on geographic names. Um it goes through an extensive consultation process at multiple levels. If it's an international geographic feature, it would then go to the geographic names board in this case of Canada as well. Uh we saw this with the naming of the Salish Sea back in 2009 uh where the two countries worked together both at state, provincial and and national levels to rename an international water body at the border.特朗普把所有这些都抛诸脑后了。从本质上讲，特朗普对安大略湖的改名，当然是一种激怒并挑衅加拿大人、同时转移美国人对生活成本上涨、汽油价格、杂货等问题的注意力的举动。这都是事实。但与此同时，你知道，地名在塑造我们的地理想象中发挥着核心作用。因此，在我们如何称呼不同地方这件事情上，蕴含着很大的权力。
英文原文
Trump has thrown all of that out the window. Essentially, Trump's renaming of Lake Ontario is certainly an effort to rage bait and troll Canadians as well as distract Americans from the rising cost of living, gas prices, groceries, and so on. That's all true. Uh but at the same time, you know, place naming uh plays a central role in shaping our geographical imaginations. Uh and so there's a lot of power there uh in in the what we uh call uh pl different different places.特朗普总统并不是唯一一个给我们这个湖改名的人。美国的用户在苹果地图和谷歌地图上也会看到“美利坚湖”。这引发了一些关于数字主权的重大问题。为了帮助我们理解这一切，我们请来了我们的常驻极客约翰·迈克尔·麦格拉思（John Michael McGrath），他是 tvo.org 的专栏作家，也是 OnPaly 播客的联合主持人。前几天你在 TVO Today 上写了一篇文章，反响相当强烈。给没读过的人梳理一下吧——如果他们没读，那就太遗憾了。我们现在看到唐纳德·特朗普总统把安大略湖叫做美利坚湖，但科技公司跟这有什么关系呢？
英文原文
President Trump isn't the only one who's renamed our lake. Users in America will also see Lake America on Apple and Google Maps. And that's raising some big questions about digital sovereignty. To help us make sense of it all, we have brought in our resident nerd, John Michael McGrath, columnist for tvO.org, co-host of the OnPaly podcast. Now, the other day you wrote an article for TVO today that got a pretty strong response. Break it down for people who have not read it. Shame on them if they haven't. Um we have President Donald Trump calling Lake Ontario Lake America now but tech companies what do they have to do with this?对。谷歌和苹果都在运营各自的地图应用程序，而且它们都采用了“美利坚湖”这个名称。在美国，它只显示为“美利坚湖”。在加拿大，它显示为“安大略湖”。而在世界其他地方，这些公司把它当作一场真正的命名争议来处理，在地图上同时标注这两个名字。我写道，这既是一种懦弱的行为，但也非常好地说明了为什么加拿大政府和决策者应该明白，我们面对由我们管辖范围之外的极具势力的公司所做出的决定，确实非常脆弱。不得不说的是，从某种奇怪的角度来看，墨西哥湾这件事在某种意义上已经树立了先例。没错，在特朗普总统宣布想给墨西哥湾改名时，我们就看到了同样的情况。
英文原文
>> Right. So uh both Google and Apple uh they they run their different map applications and they both adopted this uh Lake America naming. Uh in the United States it just says Lake America. Uh and in Canada it says Lake Ontario. And then in the rest of the world uh these companies are treating this as like a genuine naming dispute. and and you know putting both names up on their maps. And uh I wrote that you know this is um both you know an act of cowardice but also um you know a really good uh illustration of why Canadian governments and policy makers should understand that we really are uh vulnerable to decisions made by very powerful companies uh outside of our uh jurisdiction. It should be said that in a weird way a precedent was already set uh in the sense with the Gulf of Mexico. Correct. This is the same thing that we have seen when President Trump announced that he wanted to change that.是的。所以正如我在文章中所写的那样，我认为这比起改名墨西哥湾来说谈不上更冒犯或更不冒犯，但我拿报酬并不是为了去写墨西哥湾的事。这些科技公司为这种改动辩解的方式是，做出改动的并不是它们。它们声称，如果它们提取这些名称所依据的美国服务器上的名称更改了，那么它们的软件就只是自动反映出该名称变更。在2024年，这或许还是个站得住脚的理由。我认为到了2025年它就已经站不住脚了，而到了今天，我认为这完全无法自圆其说。
英文原文
>> Yes. And so as I said in the uh article that I wrote, you know, I I don't think this is more or less offensive than the change in in name to the Gulf of Mexico, but I'm not paid to write about the Gulf of Mexico. Um you know, the the way these tech companies justify this change is that, you know, they're not the ones making it. They say that, you know, if the name gets changed on the US-based server that they are drawing these names from, then their software just automatically reflects that name change. Um, you know, that might have been a defensible uh argument in 2024. I think it stopped being defensible in 2025 and it is, I think, totally indefensible today.为什么？因为你已经有18个月的时间来应对唐纳德·特朗普非常明显地在滥用它们对这台美国服务器的依赖这一事实。自贸易战开始以来，专家们就一直主张加拿大需要关注数字主权。归根结底，这场讨论的核心就是这个。无论它是关于安大略湖还是美利坚湖，这才是我们真正要在这里谈论的。苹果或谷歌或任何人在地图上为某些用户更改名称，这种做法是否有助于证实这个论点？在涉及数字主权方面，加拿大目前的格局又是怎样的？
英文原文
>> Why? because you've had 18 months to deal with the fact that Donald Trump is very clearly abusing their uh dependence on this US server. Since the trade war started, experts have argued that Canada needs to focus on digital sovereignty. At the end of the day, this is what that conversation is. Whether it's about Lake Ontario or Lake America, that's what we're really here to talk about. Does Apple or Google or whoever is changing the name on maps for some for some users? Does does that move help make this case? What is also the landscape here in Canada when it comes to digital sovereignty?数字主权与数据管辖
对。这在历史上已经不是第一次由一件本身其实无关紧要的小事，揭示出一个相对重要、实质性的议题了。我认为并没有人真正因为地图上的这种改动而在实质层面上感到愤怒。但这确实说明了这样一个问题：举例来说，如果你使用安卓手机或 iPhone，它就在不断地搜集关于你的个人信息，并且这些信息会被发送到美国的服务器上，不论加拿大政府或安大略省政府今天怎么说，他们实际上没有任何手段保护加拿大人不被监视。
英文原文
>> Right. So, you know, this would not be the first time in history that um a a relatively important substantial issue was illuminated by something that is in itself actually kind of trivial. I don't think anybody is really angry in a in a meaningful way about this change uh on the maps. But it does illustrate this this problem that uh just as a for example you know um if you use uh an Android phone or an iPhone it is constantly hoovering up personal information about you and that information is getting sent to uh US-based servers and no matter what the government of Canada or the government of Ontario says today they really have no means of defending Canadians from being spied upon.如果加拿大政府想要使用任何软件服务——特别是如果我们想谈论人工智能服务，如果他们想使用，但其实是使用任何这类总部位于美国的企业软件公司——我们能采用的手段同样非常有限。美国现行法律规定，任何美国公司都必须向美国执法机构依法索取的数据提供协助，而且你知道，这包括了我们在特朗普执政期间看到的一些不太光彩的机构。无论这些数据实际存在于地球上的什么地方，他们都必须提供这些数据。因此，如果美国政府向微软送达搜查令，即便我们的工作电子邮件就存放在安大略省的一台服务器上，这也无济于事，微软必须能够获取该数据并将其提供给美国政府。
英文原文
Uh we also have very limited means uh if uh for example if the government uh of Canada wants to use any particularly if we want to talk about AI services um if if they want to use but really any of these American-based uh software companies uh the the current law of the United States is that uh any American company has to uh provide uh data that is lawfully requested by a US law enforcement agency and you know that includes some of the less savory ones we've seen during the Trump administration. Um they have to provide that data no matter where on earth that data actually resides. So if Microsoft is served a warrant by the US government, uh it does not matter that you know our work emails are here on a server in Ontario, Microsoft has to be able to get that data and provide it to the US government.这里看起来有一个简单的解决方案，就是创建一家加拿大公司，做跟微软或谷歌完全一样的事。这看起来有点难。当我们讨论在应对数字主权方面的潜在政策变化时，这是摆在桌面上的唯一解决方案吗？所以我认为，在未来的几年里，这将成为许多许多政府——基本上是除美国以外的所有政府——的一大难关。因为特朗普政府、特别是第二任特朗普政府，确实给全世界很多政府敲响了警钟。例如，你看到欧盟正在采取行动，真正构建起他们目前依赖美国公司的整套软件服务栈；他们正在寻求构建欧洲本土的替代方案，在某些情况下甚至是公有、公共维护的方案，来替代那些美国服务。所以，这可以简单到比如寻找微软 Office 的替代品，而当然，这些替代品确实是存在的。但是，有些事情确实更难办，对吧？比如你必须在自己本国内建造能够行使法律控制权的数据中心。而且——
英文原文
There seems like an easy easy solution here is to create a Canadian company that does exactly what you know Microsoft or Google does. That seems a bit difficult. Uh is that the only solution on the table here when we talk about potential uh policy changes in terms of digital dealing with digital sovereignty? So I think this is going to be the big struggle for many many governments basically everybody except the United States uh in the years to come uh because the Trump administration and particularly the second Trump administration really has been a wake-up call for a lot of governments around the world and you are seeing moves in the European Union for example to really build out the whole stack of of software services that they currently rely on uh you know from US companies they are looking to build uh European and in some cases publicly owned, publicly uh maintained uh alternatives to those uh American services. So, you know, this could be as simple as, you know, finding an alternative to Microsoft Office. And of course, those those alternatives do exist. Um but, you know, some of this stuff is is genuinely more difficult, right? Like you have to build the data centers in your country that you can exercise legal control over. And目前人们对数据中心的态度如何？嗯，我是说你可能也看到了一些来自汉密尔顿（Hamilton）的报道，对吧？但它——
英文原文
>> how do people feel about data centers at the moment? Well, uh I mean you've probably seen some of the the reporting from Hamilton as well, right? But it's在安大略省这边，绝不仅限于汉密尔顿，我们确实看到了针对数据中心的反对声浪。你知道，许多对数据中心的批评，丝毫没有因为“我们需要这个来维护数字主权”这种论调而有所平息。一些支持者尝试过这种说法，他们在汉密尔顿试过，但反响并不好。好的，约翰·迈克尔，我们就先聊到这里。顺便说明一下，我得声明，当我看到“美国湖”（Lake America）时，心里确实倒吸了一口凉气，我只是想把这点说出来。再次感谢你，非常感谢，帮我们梳理了这一切。
英文原文
not just Hamilton by any means here in Ontario and and uh we've definitely seen reactions against uh data centers. Um you know, and and it's a lot of the criticism of data centers have not been mllified at all by the argument that uh we need this for digital sovereignty. Uh some of the proponents have tried that. Uh they tried that in Hamilton. It was not received well. Okay, John Michael, we are going to leave it there. Uh, just for the record, I am going to state that I did have an internal gasp when I did see Lake America on just want to put that out there. Uh, thank you again. Really appreciate it. Help us break down all of this.非常感谢。
英文原文
>> Thank you so much.加美关系新变局
加拿大和美国长期以来一直是朋友和盟友，有着紧密的经济、文化和人员纽带。现在，由于吞并威胁、贸易战以及“美国湖”，我们正处于前所未有的未知领域。加拿大领导人是否正在迎接这个关键时刻？我们还能回到过去的模样吗？
斯蒂芬·马什、香农·普劳德富特、安德鲁·麦克杜格尔，非常欢迎你们来到《The Rundown》。非常感谢。让我们先从加拿大领导人如何应对与美国的贸易战开始谈起。总理拂袖而去，拒绝了一项他认为不公平的协议，而安大略省省长道格·福特也发表了一些言论。来，我们听听看。
英文原文
>> Canada and the States have been longtime friends and allies with close economic, cultural, and personal ties. Now, thanks to annexation threats and trade wars and lake America, we are in uncharted territory. Are Canadian leaders meeting the moment? And will we ever go back to the way things were?Steven Marsh, Shannon Proudfoot, Andrew McDougall, great to have you on the rundown. Thank you so much. Let's start with how Canadian leaders have been tackling the trade war with the United States. The prime minister walked away from a deal he said was unfair and Premier Doug Ford has said some things. Well, have a listen.
不，我不会去回应像特朗普总统这样的独裁者。像特朗普总统这样的霸凌者。
英文原文
>> No, I don't respond to a dictator like President Trump. Bully like President Trump.我们听到了“独裁者”，我们听到了“霸凌者”。香农，你在《环球邮报》上写过关于特朗普政府的文章。在与这位美国总统打交道时，加拿大政客们采取的做法对吗？
英文原文
>> We've got dictator. We've got bully. Shannon, you've written about the Trump administration for the Globe and Mail. Are Canadian politicians taking the right approach when it comes to dealing with this US president?我注意到你没放那个更具煽动性的片段，道格·福特让唐纳德·特朗普去亲某个后车厢（亲屁股）。第二天他确实收敛了一点。但在此之前，我想直到大约两周前，你肯定能看到道格·福特和马克·卡尼之间配合上演的一种红脸白脸策略——以总理为首的联邦政客保持着更为克制的语调，而道格·福特则非常享受尽可能彻底地发挥“道格·福特性格”，也就是非常接地气、非常直言不讳。这对他真的很奏效，尽管他的民调支持率非常低。但对我来说，我现在有点难以拿捏该怎么谈论这件事，因为在最后的关税截止日那天，局面发生了太大的逆转，对吧？我们原本有个周二的截止期，后来被推迟到了周五。当东部时间的正常人在那个周五晚上入睡时，我记得我们主页上滚动的全是关于加拿大准备做出妥协的新闻，比如为了达成这项协议我们将要吞下的种种限制。然后我们在周六早晨醒来，却发现加拿大政府已经拂袖而去了。我认为那一刻发生了剧变。周六早上，卡尼先生在 Tragically Hip 日召开了那场新闻发布会，这很有诗意，这简直……如果让我去虚构创作，我都写不出这样的剧本。在那之后，一切都反转了。我们看到了他更加好斗的语调。谈判陷入停滞——甚至都谈不上停滞，根本就没有在进行。所以那确实是一个深刻的转变。在那之前，看起来像是危机公关模式，而那之后就像是摘下了手套，大家都各自退回了自己的阵营。
英文原文
I I I noticed you didn't use the clip of the even more colorful thing uh where Doug Ford instructed Donald Trump to kiss a certain caboose. Uh he did kind of wind that back a little bit the next day. But you've definitely had a kind of good cop bad cop routine going between uh until I guess a couple of weeks ago between Doug Ford and Mark Carney where we sort of had this more measured tone from the federal politicians led by the prime minister and Doug Ford was really enjoying uh Doug Fording as hard as he possibly could which is being very folksy being very outspoken. It was it was really working for him even though his approval ratings are really low. But to me, I I'm having a hard time kind of calibrating talking about this because so much flipped on that final tariff deadline day, right? We had the Tuesday one, it was punched until Friday. And when normal people uh on Eastern time went to bed on that Friday night, I remember all the news that was flowing across our homepage was about the consiliations that Canada was going to make. Um like sort of the the limitations we were going to eat to make this deal. And then we woke up on Saturday morning to find that the Canadian government had had walked away. And I think there's been a seismic shift in that moment that morning when when uh Mr. Carney delivered that press conference on the Saturday morning of tragically hip day, which is poetic. Uh that like I couldn't write, I couldn't script that if I was trying to be fictional. Um and so everything flipped after that. We've seen a much more pugnacious tone from him. Um talks have stalled. uh not even stalled, they're not happening. And so there really was a profound change. Before that, it seemed like a damage control mode and and after that it's like gloves off uh and everyone's kind of gone to their corners.安德鲁，你曾担任前总理斯蒂芬·哈珀的通讯主管。所以我想了解，当涉及到传递信息时，当所有这些杂音四起、所有人都在使用各种过激言辞时，作为领导人你该怎么做？在应对眼下正在发生的这些对话交锋方面，他们应该怎么做？
英文原文
>> Andrew, you were the director of communications for former Prime Minister Steven Harper. So I need to understand when it comes to, you know, delivering messages and when all of this noise is happening, all the colorful language is being used, what do you what do you do a as a leader? um in terms of and what should they be doing in terms of navigating the sort of the conversations that are happening right now?嗯，我认为你首先必须意识到，你所说的任何话可能产生的作用是有限的。我认为你面对的对手——也就是本案中的特朗普总统——极其不按常理出牌，而且不受逻辑或理性的约束。因此，这就使得像马克·卡尼这样充满逻辑和理性的人，变成了一个截然不同的对手。我只想鼓励任何领导人：你必须意识到，目前加拿大的态势就是大家讨厌唐纳德·特朗普，并且愿意对他竖起中指。如果你不站在这一边，你就站在了错误的一边。我认为马克·卡尼契合了他自身的品牌形象，而且把握得很得当。他就是那种让人们想起在唐纳德·特朗普这类白痴出现并把一切搞疯之前，政治本来是什么样子的那个人。所以你必须始终站在这场辩论的这一边，让道格·福特和其他省长们去承担一些更具攻击性的交锋，只要他们愿意。但我会对马克·卡尼说，并且我也写过关于马克·卡尼的文章说：在这场辩论中，继续保持你理性的品牌定位，因为理性只存在于其中一方。
英文原文
>> Well, I think the first thing you have to do is to realize the limitations of what anything you say can and might do. I think you're dealing with an opponent, President Trump in this case, who is highly unorthodox and is not wedded to logic or reason. So, that makes somebody as logical and reasonable uh you know, reasonable as Mark Carney a very different foe. And I would just encourage any leader, you know, you have to realize the dynamic right now in Canada is such that people hate Donald Trump and are willing to give him the middle finger. And if you're not on that side of the equation, you're on the wrong side of the equation. And I think Mark Carney has played to his brand and played it right. He is the guy that reminds people of what politics was like before idiots like Donald Trump showed up and made everything crazy. So you have to always stay on that side of the debate and let the Doug Fords and other premers if they want take a few of the more colorful punches but I would tell Mark Crony and have written about Mark Carney saying keep your brand proposition is the sanity in in this debate because there's only sanity on one side.正如你所说，加拿大人似乎普遍赞同卡尼的做法。到目前为止，周二公布的一项安格斯·里德（Angus Reid）民调显示，76%的人表示加拿大退出贸易谈判是正确的。斯蒂芬，你最近在《纽约时报》撰文称，马克·卡尼做到了加拿大人选他上台要做的事。在这个问题上，它是否已经超越了党派政治？
英文原文
>> Well as you said Canadians seem to be on board with Carney's approach. Uh, so far uh an Angus Reed poll that came out Tuesday found that 76% say Canada was right to ditch the trade talks. Stephen, you wrote in the New York Times recently that Mark Carney did what Canadians elected him to do. Does this issue go beyond partisan politics here?噢，我认为绝对如此。我的意思是，这实际上让保守党陷入了一个非常艰难的境地，因为我们需要一个忠诚的反对党，那是他们的职责。但我们现在并不处于一个反对党似乎还可能存在的时刻，对吧？我是说，人们总在谈论卡尼在这里的策略。但我真的认为，这里面并没有太多的策略。我的意思是，接续前面的观点，你面对的另一方并不是理性行为体。他们甚至连自身的利益都不顾及。所以这种沟通基本是没有意义的。而在另一方面，福特和卡尼之所以采取这种表现方式，是因为如果他们不这样做，加拿大民众就会以极大的力量抛弃他们。对吧。我认为，如果卡尼在那些条件下接受了那项协议，他的政府很可能都无法维系。所以，我们正处于一个非常奇特的时刻，在这里，“策略”也许根本就不是用来形容我们所处境况以及所需之物的恰当词汇。
英文原文
>> Oh, I think it definitely does. I mean, it's it's actually kind of it's a it's a very difficult position for the conservatives to find themselves in because we need a loyal opposition. That is their job. But we're not at a moment where there where an opposition seems even possible, right? I mean, people talk about Carney's strategy here. But I I really think there there isn't much strategy um you know to it. I mean to the previous point like you're not dealing with rational actors on the other side. They don't even have self-interest on their side. So communi that communication is pretty much irrelevant. And on the other side, the reason Ford and Carney are acting this way is that if they didn't, the Canadian people would reject them with great force. Right. Um, you know, I I think I think if Cardi had accepted that deal under those terms, it's possible his government wouldn't have even survived. So, you know, we're dealing in a very strange moment where strategy is perhaps not even the right word for what we're in and and what is required.香农，同一项民调确实也发现，非常多的人对成本上升感到担忧，同时也害怕失去工作。你认为加拿大人真的能在这场博弈中长期坚持下去吗？
英文原文
>> Shannon, that same poll did find that a whole lot of people are scared about the rising costs, uh, losing their jobs as well. Do you think Canadians are truly in this for the long haul?是的，在那段被我称作“关税悬而未决”的一周里，还公布了另一项民调。这一项来自 Abacus，但也呈现出并存的类似观点：绝大多数加拿大人预料新关税会带来冲击；绝大多数人表示关税已经对他们的家庭造成了伤害，但有更大比例的多数人表示绝不退让一步。我认为，人们当下的心态恰恰处于这两种观点之间的张力之中。这确实是一个棘手的问题。
英文原文
Yeah, there there was another poll that came out in that sort of what I've come to think of as tariff limbo week. This one was from Abacus, but it had the same sort of opinions lining up next to each other where the vast majority of Canadians expected the new tariffs to hurt. The vast majority said it had already hurt their household, but an even bigger majority said don't give an inch. And and I think that in a tension that lives between those opinions is is where people are. And that was a real problem.安德鲁，帮我理解一下。政客们眼下该如何争取加拿大人的支持？我们谈到了这些数据，看起来如果是卡尼的话，民调数据确实在朝着正确的方向发展；但是政客们应该做些什么，随着涉及到民众腰包的问题可能会变得更加严峻，政客们在此该做些什么来维持加拿大人的支持？
英文原文
>> Andrew, help me understand here. uh you know how do how do politicians keep Canadians on side right now we talk about we look at those numbers it looks like you know they are trending in the right direction if you are carney but should politician what should they be doing here to keep Canadians on side as things perhaps get a bit more difficult uh when it comes to their wallets是的，我认为就是要始终牢记大背景。眼下，正如斯蒂芬所说，加拿大人最希望看到的第一件事，就是对特朗普采取强硬立场——这一点做到了。所以离中期选举还有几个月的时间。我认为这就是你们会看到的局面。与此同时，卡尼在内政方面能够做、而且也正在做一些事情来展示进展。因此，当他谈到自己的资金筹措计划以及在全国范围内的这些大型经济项目中引入投资时，无论这是去向欧盟并表示我们要多做一点，你都在展现这种行动：我们在有意识地努力，不把所有鸡蛋都放在那个加拿大几乎所有人的亲身经历中所依赖的篮子里。而这并不是说这些事情将……
英文原文
>> yeah I think it's just keeping the greater context in mind right now the number one thing Canadians want to see as Stephen was saying is is a tough position against Trump check so we have a couple of months until midterm. So that I think is what you'll see. In the meantime, there are things that Kernney can and is doing at at home to try to show progress. So when he talks about his p pitch buck and getting investment into some of these major economic projects across the country, whether it's going to the EU and saying we're going to do a bit more, you're showing this action of we are consciously trying not to put all our eggs in that basket that we've relied on for most of everyone's lived experience in Canada. And that's not to say that these things will发生，或者迅速发生，或者产生比来自美国的潜在损失更大的影响，但这就是你所能做的一切，并且表明你在其中积极忙碌。而且正如斯蒂芬所指出的，保守党处境极其糟糕，因为加拿大唯一对唐纳德·特朗普及其对加拿大的态度表示支持的选民群体，恰恰位于他这边的政治阵营，那可不是你想呆的地方。所以卡尼的工作反而更轻松，尽管他是当权者，表面上面临反弹，这对保守党来说可能觉得不公平，但欢迎来到政治世界。
英文原文
happen or happen quickly or have an effect that is greater than the potential loss from the United States, but that's all you can do and to show that you're active and busy in that. And as Stephven pointed out, the Conservatives are in a horrible spot because the only constituency in Canada showing any support for Donald Trump and his attitude to Canada sits on his side of the political equation and and that's not place that you want to be. So Carney has the easier job even though he's the one in control. and and ostensibly faces the backlash and and that might not feel fair to the conservatives that welcome to politics.我是说，到目前为止，特朗普一直在做很多事情来让加拿大人团结起来反对他。比如“美利坚湖”，还有一些疯传的帖子和梗图。这里有一张特朗普最近发的图，大家应该都见过了，画面中他扮成一名冰球运动员，高高耸立在所谓的“卡尼州长”上方。接着还有皮特·海格塞斯，美国国防部长，他发了一张嘲讽加拿大军校学员的图片。斯蒂芬、安德鲁刚才在谈论要保持逻辑、讲求理性。
英文原文
>> I mean, so far Trump has been doing a whole lot uh to keep Canadians united against him. Uh there's Lake America and there have been a few viral posts and memes. Uh here's a recent one from Trump showing him as a hockey player looming over quote unquote Governor Carney that we've all seen. And then there is Pete Haggath, the United States Secretary of Defense. He posted an image mocking Canadian cadetses. Um, Stephen Andrew was talking about, you know, being logical, having some reason. Uh,如果我想的话，我也可以变得非常琐碎计较。我相信政客们大概也会想，我也许可以弄点AI生成的图片来进行反击。但是政客们应该如何应对这种攻击呢？
英文原文
>> I can be very petty if I want to. I'm sure politicians probably are like, I can probably put, you know, uh, you know, get some AI images and and fight back here. But how should politicians respond to that kind of attack?噢，我认为对那种攻击的回应实际上完全无关紧要。比如，有些人说福特不应该发表那些言论，有些人说他应该说，这其实没有任何区别。这里的关键在于让我们的贸易多元化达到不再受制于这些人的地步，把我们自己的内部事务打理好，迅速摆脱对美国的依赖，并认识到这辆大巴正冲向悬崖，而我们需要从大巴上跳下来。我认为这些事情实际上正在以对加拿大官僚机构而言非凡的敏捷度向前推进，对吧？所以我认为，至于那些实际的嘲讽戏弄——我认为你必须明白，这代表他们并没有计划，对吧？比如，对于这场贸易战，他们实际上并没有方案。特朗普认为他的回应就是把安大略湖称作“美利坚湖”，挥舞拳头并发布一堆AI烂图。
英文原文
Oh, I think they, you know, the the response to that kind of attack is actually totally irrelevant. Like it, if you, you know, some people say Ford shouldn't have said things, some people say he should. It really doesn't make any difference. What matters here is getting our trade diversification to the point where we're no longer under these people's thumb and getting our own house in order and and moving away from America very quickly and understanding that you know the the bus is going off the cliff and we need to jump out of the bus and you know I think those things are actually moving forward with you know for Canadian bureaucracy remarkable elacrity right and so I I think you know the actual taunt haunting. Like I think you have to understand that as them not having a plan, right? Like they don't actually have a plan for this trade war. They think Trump thinks his response is calling Lake Ontario Lake America and punching and and posting a bunch of AI slob.当他做那些事情的时候，我们需要埋头苦干。我们现在需要非常忙碌地避开这些人。
英文原文
>> Um that's when he's doing that, we need to be working. We need to be real busy right now getting out of the way of these people.加美历史关系与裂痕
斯蒂芬，我还想问你。这里的很多人当然感到自己受到了人身攻击，而且不仅仅是在经济层面。美加关系以前曾经如此紧张过吗？在这里给我上一堂历史小课吧。
英文原文
>> Stephen, I want to stick with you. A lot of people here feel attacked personally, of course. Uh, and it's not just economically. Has the USC Canada relationship been this tense before? Give me a little history lesson here.我认为没有。我的意思是，上次你能拿来比较的时间——虽然我不确定它是否真的具有可比性——是在联邦成立前夕，当时亚伯拉罕·林肯政府的陆军部长、内政部长期间，一份备忘录被泄露出来，上面写着：“我们有军队，为什么不去占领加拿大？”但那是一位高级政府官员的泄密，根本从未有任何接近实质的内容。光是这一点就促使我们建立了我们自己的国家，搁置了我们内部的分歧。自独立革命时期以来，或者我想自1812年战争以来，我不认为曾有哪位美国总统如此公开主动地谈论征服加拿大，并且拥有一个将这种言论付诸某种理论实践的政府——完全没有。我们正处在完全史无前例的境地。我的意思是，完全没有任何先例。香农，我们此刻交流的背景正处于2001年“9·11”事件25周年前夕，在那场悲剧发生之后，加拿大人感到自豪并且急切地帮助美国邻居，比如在有那么多人员滞留的纽芬兰。有人说那是一种特殊的纽带。我很好奇，我们是否担心这种关系再也无法恢复？我们认为我们还能回到过去的样态吗？
英文原文
>> I don't think so. I mean, the last time you could compare it to, but I'm not sure it would actually be comparable is just before Confederation when uh the Secretary of Defense, the um Secretary of the Interior under uh um Abraham Lincoln's administration, a a note was leaked saying, "We have armies. Why don't we go take Canada?" But that was a leak from a senior government figure and it was never anything even remotely real. And and that alone caused us to form our own country to put put aside our own differences. I don't think there's ever been a an American president, you know, since the, you know, since the Revolutionary period that's actively or I guess the War of 1812 that's actively talked about conquering Canada and has an administration that has, you know, put this into some kind of theoretical practice like no, no, no. This is we're we're in completely unprecedented waters. I mean, totally without without any precedent. Shannon, we are talking just before the 25th anniversary of 9/11 back in 2001 in the aftermath of the tragedy. Canadians were proud and eager to help uh American neighbors like in Newf Finland where so many people were stranded. It was some say a special bond and I am curious, are we worried that that relationship will never recover? Do we think we will ever go back to where we were?嗯，我认为，暗示我们对此感到担忧，就等于暗示我们没有自主能动性去决定现在的关系应该是什么样，暗示我们想要和他们和好。我不认为我们目前处于那种状态。我也许有过度揣测的风险，但是你知道，对于美国人来说，可以肯定只有半数是这样。他们中有一半人和世界其他地方一样感到惊恐，但另一半人却第二次选择了他。我们不知道在后特朗普时代会发生什么。但是，没有任何理由认为一切都会迅速恢复正常。这并非某种短暂的反常插曲。我认为我们不应该这样看待它，而且日渐明显的是，我们也没有这样看待。我认为2025年主导的情绪基调可以说是震惊和恐惧。当时存在对加拿大经济高度脆弱性的感知，存在某种他将派出坦克、或者至少在经济上将我们夷为平地的威胁。而且，从所谓的特殊朋友与邻国——这也是我们谈及自身与美国关系时一贯的表述——突然毫无征兆地变成如此具有攻击性的关系，这种转变本身也带来了巨大的震惊。但是，那一页已经翻过去了。我的意思是，卡尼一直在用无数种集会演讲口号告诉我们这一点，比如这是一次破裂、怀旧不是策略。他有所有这些警句口号，但在那之下存在着非常真实的真相。随着每一天的过去，伴随着美国人每一次新的疯狂发作、每一次对他们不可靠的新证明，在眼下这个节点上，与他们签订的任何贸易协议还能有什么价值呢？他们第二天就会全盘推翻它。所以再说一次，这里充斥着大量的混乱与恶意，这种局面中没有任何好事。但对于像加拿大这样的国家，或者对于可能在幕后观察我们准备如何应对的其他国家来说，看清现实具有其价值。
英文原文
Well, I think to suggest we're worried about it is to suggest we don't have agency to decide what the relationship should be now. That that we want to make up with them. I don't think that's where we are. Um I I'm perhaps at risk of projecting here, but you know, Americans to be sure only half of them. Half of them were horrified just like the rest of the world. But half of them chose him for a second time. We don't know what's going to happen in a postTrump era. But uh there's no reason to think everything snaps back to normal. um this is not sort of a blip. I I don't think we should see it that way and increasingly I don't think we do. I would argue sort of the governing emotional tenor of 2025 was kind of shock and fear. There was this sense of great vulnerability of the Canadian economy. There was some sort of threat that he was going to roll tanks or at least flatten us economically. And there was also just the profound shock of that to go from being, you know, special friends and neighbors, which is what we always speak of each ourselves as being with the United States, to something that aggressive out of nowhere. Uh, but that ship has sailed. I mean, Carney's been telling that us that in a million different kind of rally speech phrases, you know, that it's a rupture. Uh, nostalgia is not a strategy. He has all these catchphrases, but there's a very real truth under there. Um, increasingly every day that goes by, every new outburst of insanity from the Americans, e, every new demonstration of their untrustworthiness, what would any trade deal be worth with them at this point at all? They will just flip it on its head the next day. So again, there I mean there's a ton of chaos here. There's a ton of malevolence. Like nothing in this situation is good. But there is the value of clarity for a country like Canada or maybe for others sort of watching from behind the curtains and watching to see how we're going to deal with it.安德鲁，新一届政府会改变现状吗？
英文原文
>> Andrew, would a new administration change things?等等，我想我会给你一个胆小鬼式的回答：这取决于新一届政府是什么样子。但认真地说，我想呼应前面的一些评论。我认为我们不能把婴儿和洗澡水一起倒掉，正如香农所言，虽然有7700多万美国人投票给唐纳德·特朗普，但你投票给他并不一定是为了让他去挑衅像加拿大这样的地方，他们有各种各样不同的原因。当你在第一线从事政治工作时，你学到的第一件事就是大多数人对这个国家、或者他们所投票的事项、或者具体议题一无所知。这并不是在贬低他们，只是因为他们忙于自己的生活，有着各自的痛苦、担忧与恐惧。因此，我认为我们不应认定所有人都支持唐纳德·特朗普正在做的事。现在，我认为对这一切更大的制约因素，在于我们当前的信息空间彻底瘫痪混乱的程度。在能够触及国家层面的舞台上展开理性、周密讨论的能力，如今变得非常困难。我们过着高度数字碎片化的生活，我们看到的很多信息就像斯蒂芬所说的是AI烂图或其他虚假信息，而这使得以同理心和相互理解走到一起变得困难得多。因此，在我们对此采取行动之前，政客们拉动他们传统上所使用的杠杆，就不应该指望获得过去同样的结果，而且我认为这同样适用于双边关系，也适用于国内政策。这就是为什么如果我重新回到政府，那就会是你必须去着手解决的事情。正如斯蒂芬所说的“去干活”，你必须着手为我们的信息经济带来某种控制和理性，因为目前这里确实成了一个怪异的地方。
英文原文
>> Wait a minute. I guess I'll give you the coward's answer. Depends what that uh administration looks like. But seriously, I think pick up on a couple of previous comments. I think we can't throw the the baby out with the bathwater in that as Shannon said, you know, while 77 some odd million Americans voted for Donald Trump, you didn't necessarily vote for him to pick fights with places like Canada, they have many different reasons. And when you work in frontline politics, you first thing you learn is that most people don't know anything about the country or what they're voting on or the issues. And that's not to slight them. It's just they're busy with their lives and they have their pains and concerns and fears. And so I don't think we should assume that everybody supports what Donald Trump is doing. Now I think the bigger limiting factor on all of this is just how completely polaxed our information spaces right now. You know the ability to have rational thoughtful discussions on on a canvas that can approach the national canvas is very difficult now. We live very digital atomized lives uh where a lot of the information we see is as Steven's point AI slop or other misinformation and I could get that makes coming together in empathy and understanding that much more difficult. So until we do something about that politicians pulling on the levers that they have traditionally pulled on they shouldn't expect to get the same kind of results and and I think that applies to bilateral relations. I think it applies to domestic policy and that's why if I were back in government that's that's what you have to work on. You know, Stephen says, "Get to work." You have to get to work bringing some sort of control and rationality around our information economy because it is a weird place right now.斯蒂芬，根据美国舆观调查网（YouGov）的民意调查，38%的共和党人认为加拿大对美国不友好或者是美国的敌人，这绝对是过去十年来的最高水平。你预计这个数字还会上升吗？
英文原文
>> Stephen, according to polling from Yuggov America, 38% of Republicans view Canada as unfriendly or an enemy to the US, by far the highest level uh in the past decade. Do you expect that number to rise?嗯，这取决于唐纳德·特朗普想对他们做什么。我的意思是，面对特朗普向共和党那38%的选民基本盘所要求的任何狂热指令，他们基本都能被煽动起来。我确实认为，在加拿大寻找敌意是
英文原文
>> Well, it depends what Donald Trump wants to do with them. I mean, they're they're capable of being whipped into basically any frenzy that he demands of that, you know, that 38% base of the Republican party. Um, I do think finding enmity in Canada is实际上可能太荒谬了，以至于会很难让人接受。不过，我想指出的是，显然我写过一本名为《下一次内战》（The Next Civil War）的书。我是一个深度的美国悲观主义者。我认为这个体系及其不平等程度、体制现状以及其余种种，都是走向崩溃的社会的典型例证。我只是想指出，没有任何证据表明，接替这届政府的民主党政府，会比我们目前应对的政府更明智、更理性，或者更亲加拿大。我的意思是，你已经能听到加利福尼亚州州长阿卜杜拉之类的人在说：“呃，我不会取消关税，但你知道，这种争端太荒谬了。”我们需要明白，是整个美国政治体系变得有毒，变得从根本上不可持续且功能失调，而这种状况不会消失。唐纳德·特朗普很大程度上只是那种崩溃的症状，甚至可能算不上催化剂，但绝对不是原因。
英文原文
actually probably so absurd that it it it's going to be a difficult cell. But, you know, I would just point out that, you know, I mean, obviously I wrote a book called The Next Civil War. I'm a I'm a deep American pessimist. Like I think the system and its inequality levels and itsformational situies and all the rest of it are classic examples of societies headed for for breakdown. Um I would just point out that there's zero evidence that a democratic administration that would follow this would be any more sensible or reasonable or proanadian than what we're currently dealing with. I mean, you already hear governors of California, Abdullah, saying things like, "Well, I'm not going to take off the tariffs, but you know, this is ridiculous, this fight." Um, we we need to understand that the it is the American political system writ large that has become toxic and become, you know, fundamentally unsustainable and dysfunctional and that that that is not going anywhere. Donald Trump is very much just a symptom of that collapse rather than a rather than even maybe a catalyst of it, but certainly not a cause.加拿大人的民族认同与应对
香农，这场贸易战以及随之而来的一切，是否揭示了我们国民性格中的某些特质？
英文原文
>> Shannon, is this trade war and everything that goes with it revealing anything about our national character?我正好眼下就在写一篇关于这方面的报道。所以，希望我的想法能说得通。嗯，众所周知，我们常常带点自责地表示，我们往往是通过界定自己“不是什么”来确立自我的。我们不是美国人。我们有全民医保。我们这里的做法与众不同。我甚至在想，这是否以一种外向的方式磨砺了我们的自我认同感和爱国情怀。也就是说，早期很多带着开玩笑性质但我觉得依然发人深省的言论是：“噢，美国政府太招人烦了。他们把加拿大人给惹毛了。就像玩偶娃娃都拿起了武器对抗他们一样。”我们知道自己不是那样的形象。我们知道自己展现出巨大的毅力甚至是反抗情绪，人们拥有这种决心，其实并不令人意外。当你作为一个与庞然大物为邻的小国生活时，你必须拥有一种沉稳内敛的自我认同。
这极大地振奋了人心。我认为在最新一轮关税之前的六个月左右时间里，这种情绪显然已经冷却了。人们根本无法长期维持9分（满分10分）的那种危机应对状态。随着局势在某种程度上常态化，唐纳德·特朗普就从空袭防空警报变成了某种耳鸣一般的存在，但这又重新把大家激起来了。我认为人们非常想尽己所能，不论是用某个应用软件扫描购物车里的商品来看看它们有多“加拿大”，还是在本地度假，或是采取其他任何形式，比如在体育赛事上对国歌喝倒彩——这是一种极其全身心投入的状态。
从更具运作机制的层面来说，接下来的问题在于后续会发生什么：加拿大经济会承受多大程度的损害？情况还会恶化到什么地步？这是典型的军备竞赛。以及加拿大公众能有多大承受意愿，而加拿大政府在政策层面开始觉得怎样才是必要或审慎的，因为我认为在某个时刻，这两者会脱节。目前它们结合得非常紧密。但随着时间的推移，维系这一点会变得越来越难。我们还得面对这家伙两年，正如我的几位同场嘉宾所言，这一切已经回不去了。在某种程度上，这件事情没有倒带键。当然，他确实是世界历史上一个特殊的角色，我们希望他永远独一无二。但美国的政治体系已经腐化变质，世界其他地方今后都必须忍受这一点。
英文原文
>> I happen to be working on a story about that right now. So, I hope my thought my thoughts make sense. Uh, well, we we infamously, right, and sort of self-flagagillatingly say that we often define ourselves in opposition to what we are not. We are not Americans. We have socialized medicine. We we do things differently here. Um I I almost wonder if it has sharpened our sense of self and our sense of patriotism in an outward-f facing way. Um in that, you know, a lot of the kind of joking, but I still think revealing commentary in the early days was, "Oh, the American administration is so obnoxious. They've made the Canadians angry. Like the stuffies have taken up arms against them." We know that's not who we are. We know it's not actually that surprising that we've shown a lot of grit, even spite, that that people have this resolve. I mean, when you're a small country living next door to a behemoth, you have to have a quiet sense of self.Um, this has been enormously galvanizing. That had cooled off, I think, pretty demonstrably, uh, you know, say over the 6 months or so before the latest round of tariffs. People just can't sustain a 9 out of 10 level of of crisis response. um as things sort of normalize like Donald Trump went from being an air raid siren to you know sort of a case of tenitis but this has revved all that up again people I think are very much in a mood to do what they can and if that's you know running their grocery cart through an app that tells them how Canadian it all is or vacationing at home or whatever form that takes booing the anthem uh at sporting events it's a very all-in thing
the question is sort of what happens from here in a more mechanical way how much damage does the Canadian economy sustain. How much worse does this get? This is a classic arms race. Um and and what what the Canadian public has appetite for and what the Canadian government starts to feel is necessary or prudent in a policy sense because I think at some point those two things are going to become disagregated. Right now they're very happily married. Um but that's going to get harder as time wears them on it. We still got two more years of this guy and to the point of my fellow panelists, this is not going back. Uh there's no rewind button on this to to some degree. Sure, he is a unique character uh we hope in world history forever and ever then. But there is the the American political system has gone septic and the rest of the world has to live with it from now.
时间会证明一切。香农、斯蒂芬、安德鲁，非常感谢你们。非常感激大家抽出时间参与。
您对美国的看法是否发生了变化？需要怎样才能转变回来？欢迎在评论区告诉我们，或发送电子邮件至 rundowntvo.org。
我是杰伊·贾根。感谢收看《The Rundown》。我们下周再见。
英文原文
>> Time will tell. Shannon, Stephen, Andrew, thank you so much. I really appreciate you taking the time.Have your feelings about the US changed and what would it take to change them back? Let us know in the comments or send us an email to rundowntvo.org.
I'm Jay and Jagen. Thanks for watching the rundown. I will see you next week.