加拿大的人才流失困局与回流契机：对话TD经济学家与归国学者

Jay Jagan: Canada has a problem. We produce some pretty talented innovators and researchers, but a lot of those people don't stick around. Many of them go south of the border for opportunities. But now, something interesting is happening. As the Trump administration slashes science and research funding, some of the very people we struggled to keep are looking for opportunities elsewhere. So, could that give us an opening? Ottawa certainly thinks so. While certain countries are cutting research and turning their back on academic freedom, we're doubling down on science and we're doubling down on research.

That was Federal Industry Minister Melanie Jolie last month talking about what she called the largest talent attraction strategy of any Western country and it seems to be working. More than 60 international scholars will be heading here, including some Canadians who are coming home. So, why did they leave in the first place? What's bringing them back? And can Canada turn this moment into something that lasts? I'm Jay Jagen and this is the rundown.

Jay Jagan: Okay, first let's talk about why Canada loses so much talent to begin with. According to a new report from TD Economics, it's complicated and permanent migration data doesn't really tell the whole story. Francis Fong, great to have you in our studios. How are you doing?

Francis Fong: Thanks for having me, Jay. Great to be here.

Jay Jagan: All right, so you co-wrote the report Canada's silent brain drain. Help me understand here. What are we seeing right now?

Francis Fong: Yeah. So, Jan, this is not a topic that I think is new to a lot of folks. Canada has been talking about brain drain going all the way back to the 1970s. This is the last time I actually tracked it. Uh but it's been an ongoing conversation because it is notionally an ongoing challenge that Canada has faced for as many decades as we've been talking about it in the current context of what we're we're talking about.

We're really at this flash point where you know in the last 10 years effectively since the oil crash in 2014 and certainly through co and today we've been suffering through low levels of productivity growth. Our standard of living has sort of stagnated in that regard. We're seeing low levels of capital investment. Uh and on top of that, you know, I think a lot of those factors are culminating in this sort of renewed focus on the ways in which skilled labor can be attracted to go elsewhere, obviously notably the United States, uh with all the benefits that come from moving down there.

Uh and so basically, we wrote this report to talk about a few things. One, sort of tracking the updated data on sort of where we're seeing the biggest pressures of of of brain drain. Short answer is we're seeing it in the high highest levels of skilled skilled labor, people with PhDs, master's degrees, and whatnot. and then sort of linking that to the broader competitiveness challenges that Canada's facing today.

Jay Jagan: You wrote in your report that Canada's core challenge, not necessarily attraction, but the anchoring. What do you mean by that?

Francis Fong: Yeah, and I think that really goes to where Canada has historically had strengths and where we've historically had weaknesses. We have a fant we do a fantastic job of training up talent. Our post-secary education system across the country is worldrenowned, world class of producing the best talent. uh we also do an amazing job at uh doing research and in particular R&D uh developing uh you know technology and software and new products and things like that within the post-secary education system where we are challenged and where we continue to see challenge is in the startup culture in the commercialization culture and in fact Canada is doing better than we've done in the past in those regards because there have been steps to develop venture capital and things of that nature where we really struggle today and where we're losing out on a lot of folks uh is in that longer period of time where you have an entrepreneur that maybe starts something up here.

Maybe they did some research with a professor, developed some sort of software or IP and decided to launch a company in Canada. The challenge that we're now facing is how do they find the capital to be able to scale up that company they started and actually sort of create a worldclass competitive firm like a Shopify which is a good example of a Canadian-born uh uh company that has thrived. There are many that could have been Shopifies potentially but you know the lack of scale up uh capital that they might have needed to develop that is either lacking or it's just a lot greater than it is in the US. They go they go abroad.

Jay Jagan: I am curious because your report mentions that those structures that are in place actually it's not even that there's gaps here is that we're actually encouraging people to go seek out those ventures south of the border.

Francis Fong: Absolutely. And I think a good example of this is where our personal tax rates tend to hit very very quickly. Uh if you look at where the top marginal tax rate, you know, for those that might not be familiar with tax policy, which is the the the the tax rate you pay on that next dollar of income, right? the the rate at which you're paying is is already very high. Everyone knows that. You know, people often complain about their their taxes being too high, but the level of income that it would hit at that it would bind at is actually a lot lower than many of our international counterparts.

Again, we're we're going to look to the US here, but if you go to a California or New York, the top marginal rates are comparable, if not higher than they are in Canada, but they don't bind until something like a million dollars uh in in in US dollars, let alone Canadian dollars versus the $280,000 or so it hits here. So, yeah, we're talking about very high levels of income. But when you're talking about top talent, like that's the compensation that they're getting. That's what it cost to get top talent here.

Is it the entire story? Of course not. I think the what one of the fascinating things about talking about competitiveness, tax policy, regulatory policy, particularly comparing Canada and the US is just how just how similar our systems actually are. Any barrier from a a business perspective that a Canadian company faces actually exists in the US too. But the reality is when you go to the US, you have all this extra capital that you might get at. Uh your market is 10 times larger. you have access to, you know, all these maybe uh uh advisers that might help you out and and different access to different markets and all that kind of stuff. That's the real benefit and and in a way that puts Canada at an additional disadvantage. We need to be that much more competitive just to retain people than than the US does.

Jay Jagan: We are having for the past couple of years now conversations about how we can be competitive. What can Canada do to compete here?

Francis Fong: Yeah, this is this is sort of the the trillion dollar question. In fact, we just put out a piece of research talking about the potential for uh investment to really sort of surge over the next 10, 15, maybe even 20 years. We're actually seeing Prime Minister Carney take a lot of the actions that uh we feel that uh this country needs to take to make those things happens. You know, like uh trying to attract new investment, uh you know, making us more competitive from a tax perspective, you know, addressing things on the regulatory side.

You know, I think where we often are challenged is trying to come up with the nitty-gritty of all the things we need to do because it does get quite complex. Like we do need to talk about regulation. We do need to talk about corporate taxes. We also need to talk about personal taxes. We need to talk about the immigration system. We need to talk about housing and the cost of living because in at the end of the day, every part of the economy plays its role. The entrepreneur plays its role. Even the billionaire plays it plays their role. uh the skilled trades person plays their role, the construction people play their role, the office worker plays their role and and if we're missing some element of that then you know the whole system tends to look a little bit more shoddy. So right now we are in a situation where we are very good at creating entrepreneurs and creating you know new software and new products and things like that but we are not really that good at retaining it especially when we have the behemoth south of the border. So that's where where the challenge is right now.

Jay Jagan: Well let's pick up on that. A lot of people might look at this is a great opportunity. So, Canada be an opportunist, seize the moment right now. Can Canada actually compete?

Francis Fong: I I think the short answer is yes. Uh but a lot has to come together to make that true. I think that's probably the the difficult element of it because and I the reason I say short answer, yes, is because we've done it in the past.

Okay, if you look at the sort of 2000 to 2014 era, you know, not not too too long ago, we don't have to turn back the clock that long. There was a period of time where productivity growth was extremely high. Investment per per person, per worker was very very high relative to our G7 counterparts. And things were going pretty well. That happened to coincide with a commodity super cycle. It happened to coincide with a tremendous amount of investment in oil and gas. And you know obviously that's not a free lunch either like we talk climate change and the role that that plays and all those kinds of things but you know all that being said from a competitiveness perspective there was something going on.

What happened during that time? Well we had a situation where at the both at the federal and provincial level there was uh significant cuts to the to the corporate tax rate that played at least some role. We don't we [clears throat] can't it's hard to say exactly how much but it played some role. Uh and there was sort of the broader climate that was going on with commodities that just sort of you know allowed that to burgeon. Uh are we seeing that again? Sort of somewhat. Um you know there's this sort of natural uptick that we're seeing right now. Uh just because investment's been in the doldrums for so long. Uh but to keep that going so long as I think governments sort of band together and say hey let's on a united front let's address this this competitiveness issue. I think there's an opportunity for us to sort of see that trend again. But a lot does have to happen.

Jay Jagan: I want to talk about something that we don't necessarily have the history for, and that's a conversation a lot of people are having right now about uh US being a potential associate member of the EU. With Canada's potential path here uh of that, do you think Canada's brain drain problem gets worse?

Francis Fong: Yeah, it's a it's a good question, Jan. I I again, we're in new territory here. I don't think anyone has an answer to this, but there's there I think there's two ways to look at it. one, you know, the the EU being the behemoth that it is, there is an opportunity, I think, for brain drain to go to to to sort of grow. Uh, and I think the enthusiasm with which many Canadians are looking down the barrel of potential, you know, opportunities to go to Europe and get, you know, visa-free work access, like that's a big deal for a lot of folks to consider. So, I think there is that possibility.

On the same token, the the other way to look at it is the EU is grounded in this whole idea of the multilateral framework, which is that we all benefit when we work together and collaborate and bring down barriers to capital, trade, uh, and labor flows. I think there's a degree to which even if there were a a big shift in skilled labor to the EU from Canada, that we might benefit just as much from that flow. And regardless, the flow itself is the end goal. and that we all are better off when we have a more efficient allocation of labor, more, you know, intellectual transfer, technology transfer, increased trade, all of those things I think are are are associated with that idea. Now, is it perfect? Obviously, the answer is no. And I think that the, you know, the the EU's history itself and the conflicts therein uh are evidence of that. But that doesn't sort of suggest one way or another whether there's going to be this immediate brain drain problem.

Jay Jagan: It's early days, but I appreciate the optimism [laughter] on it. So, Francis, thank you so much for the insights.

Francis Fong: Yeah, thanks very much for having me, Jan. [music]

Jay Jagan: So, that's what the numbers tell us, but what about the people? These researchers went to the states for opportunities, but now they're heading back. Jennifer Spence, Sarah Seager, and Ryan Sullivan, great to have you on the rundown. I I would be lying if I said I'm not intimidated by how much brain power is in front of me right now. Sarah, I'm going to start with you. You're joining University of Toronto. Tell us what you're doing.

Sarah Seager: I have two things. One is I work on the search for life beyond Earth. not little green humanoids, but we're looking for signs of life, like signs of tiny bacteria on solar system planets and moons and exoplanets. But the technology we need to develop to do those things carries us way farther than we are looking outwards to space. It carries us directly into space and defense technology, translating the complicated technology to uses here on Earth.

Jay Jagan: Not a small feat at all. Okay. Uh Ryan, help us understand. You're going to be working at Trent

Ryan Sullivan: Yes. Uh I'm an environmental chemist. So I study chemicals in the environment to better understand the effects that synthetic chemicals have on health and clouds and climate. Uh and then use that knowledge to design greener, cleaner alternatives and processes. And we also develop instruments that can measure pollutants and the harm they're doing uh out in the field to help design greener, cleaner, more sustainable chemicals and materials that we can benefit from.

Jay Jagan: All right. And Jennifer, all of these seem very timely. Uh, so and I Jennifer, I understand yours is quite timely with the conversations that we're having right now in North America. Help us understand what you are doing at the University of Ottawa.

Jennifer Spence: Yeah, more timely than I'd hoped in some ways. Uh, so look at uh the Arctic and governance of the Arctic. uh and my areas of interest uh focus primarily on sort of community resilience, but because of the current situation, I've moved quite a bit into what this means for research cooperation and science diplomacy at a time when things are quite challenged on an international stage and to encourage good decision making in the region in a rather tense time.

Jay Jagan: Now, as I mentioned off the top that you three are all returning back, spent a significant amount of time uh in the States. Jennifer, help me understand what made you want to come back to Canada.

Jennifer Spence: Well, I mean, I would say it's sort of three-fold. Um, I will say that, you know, I had a fabulous team at the Harvard Kennedy School. I loved the work that we did. Um, but when I looked at the current environment, uh, in the United States and I looked at the type of work I was trying to do, um, it wasn't an easy environment in which to do that.

Uh and then as a Canadian and I looked at the opportunities and the role that Canada can play in sort of being a leader in decision-making in the Arctic uh I really started to turn my mind home to what I might be able to contribute there. Uh and the University of Ottaw where I will be uh working has really prioritized the Arctic and for me that was the game changer of being really knowing that I'll be part of a community of people that are really committed to working in this space.

Jay Jagan: Now Sarah, you decided actually to come to Canada before uh the Eddie Goldenberg research opportunity was announced. Why was that?

Sarah Seager: Well, there comes a time in everyone's life where it's time to give back. And I just felt at this age and at this stage after my 20 years at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, you know, it's kind it's time to come home. And it all came together because Canada needs us to become more sovereign in technology, trade, and defense. And I'm here to help get that job done.

Jay Jagan: And Ryan, tell me a little bit about uh the story for you. Uh why decide to come from Carnegie Melon University over to Trent?

Ryan Sullivan: Yeah, I'd actually been seeking to return to Canada for a while, especially southern Ontario. Uh part a big part of that is Canada just plays a much larger emphasis uh on the environment on environmental research and education. You can see that in the strategic areas um uh that were part of the Eddie Goldenberg chairs. So that was a big draw. And also just Trent University's reputation and and the scale of the institution there was very appealing for me as well.

Sarah Seager: I just want to throw one thing in here like how excited I am to be a part of this cohort and I just heard these I've just met these other chairs for the first time. I'm wowed by you and the fact that we're leaving like Harvard, Carnegie Melon, MIT, and we're coming home and we're bringing with us the big thinking, the big resources to make a difference here. We're going to infuse the aggressive spirit that we learned here and it's going to be awesome.

Jay Jagan: It does seem like another universe of you know some superheroes. I'm scrolling through the list of everyone and it's just like it is there is some excitement around here. Uh I am curious Ryan you had mentioned uh sort of funding. um help me understand uh would you have done this uh without uh you know this kind of investment? You know you couldn't find a suitable position at a suitable institution for um less than this.

Ryan Sullivan: Oh, absolutely not. I have to be honest, the answer is no. I spent my whole career in the US, had tenure as a full professor at Carnegie Mellon, directed our institute for green science. A regular faculty offer just wouldn't have had the startup resources, the infrastructure, or the research team support necessary to move a major lab. This chair program completely changed the calculus.

Jay Jagan: Jennifer, about you?

Jennifer Spence: Well, I I mean I I don't think I could have dreamed of this kind of opportunity. That's sort of the way I would put it. Um, you know, when I met with folks from the University of Ottawa and we started to plan this out as part of building the proposal, they asked me to dream big. Uh, and so I did. Um and to be able to have that kind of support. Uh but I see this as an amazing amazing opportunity.

Jay Jagan: Sarah, you mentioned uh you know the excitement uh but there's also sacrifice here. You guys have spent several years studying here. You these are positions that don't come often in in the in the institutions that you are leaving. I am curious what were some of the sacrifices or losses that you've had to make to make this move?

Sarah Seager: Well, I would say saying goodbye to friends, of course, is a tough one and colleagues and, you know, the brain power here. Um, it's not necessarily something I want to advertise on national TV, but I'm taking like a pay cut to come home.

Sarah Seager: Um, [clears throat] leaving quite a lot of money on the table for pension, but I don't regret that in any way, actually. I think it's just part of the deal. And as everyone else already chimed in, the resources to get our work done is not only a huge personal gain, but it's also something we need um to take Canada to its next level. What they want us to do, we need the resources to get it there. So, they're definitely wins and losses.

Jay Jagan: Jennifer, help me understand some of the losses involved in your decision. Um obviously, you know, when this was presented to you, very exciting, you know, dream big. Uh but obviously like what Sarah said, walking away from these institutions, what were some of the losses that you have to kind of put aside uh to make this move?

Jennifer Spence: Yeah. I mean ultimately I was incredibly proud. I was the the team that I worked with I absolutely adore. Uh ironically what the thing that I've been saying is I actually feel like I'm in a position to better support that team from here right now. But it's a really weird feeling. uh there really mixed feelings around what it means to uh I mean I'm an international scholar and and so I can I you know I made the choice to come home for American scholars who have lived and worked in the US uh they are still working in that environment and I you know Harvard has has not had an easy run of it. Researchers across the United States have not had an easy run of it. Uh and I I I just want to find the best way to support my community. Um but uh it is not an easy time uh to be a researcher in the United States.

Jay Jagan: Ryan, can you help me understand a little bit of the environment?

Ryan Sullivan: Yeah. Uh I mean it's it's highly chaotic. Um it's particularly bad in certain fields such as my environmental field. My latest grant was from the EPA from the uh advancing sustainable chemistry program, which is to uh use what we can understand and predict about what makes chemicals problematic when they get into the environment to design those problems out of new chemicals. Uh and it was terminated for a one-sentence reason two months after it started.

So, um yeah, that's tough. And the impact uh the biggest impact is on the students, right? Because most of our research funding goes towards supporting students. We hire students, we hire postdocs and then the funding gets immediately cut off and my university is internally supporting the students but um that's still you know very upsetting and challenging um for the research team.

Jay Jagan: Sarah I am curious you know there are probably all three of you are ambassadors essentially for Canada here but I imagine there are some American uh colleagues of yours who are like what's it like working in Canada? What have you had some candid conversations there?

Sarah Seager: Well, I'm starting I'm literally moving next week and starting October 1st. So, I don't have an answer yet, but I do get asked a lot of questions. Why would I leave MIT? A lot of people are asking me where I live, what you know it's just been announced as like the top research university in the world. So I I get asked that a lot and I just say because it's Canada's moment.

Jay Jagan: It's great that Canada has taken the steps to recruit you home. Some of the top academics in the world are coming home. Some who are coming to Canada for the first time to set up in these institutions. But as we know, Canada does have a problem in anchoring some of these uh top tier people sometimes. And I'm curious, how does Canada stop people from leaving as all three of you had left at some point in your careers? How do we stop this? How do you get those research grad students to not only work with you, but stay with you?

Jennifer Spence: Yeah. Well, first of all, there's another tier as well. So, there's the Eddie Goldenberg chairs, but then there's the emerging leaders. And what I think was really clever is uh many of us have emerging leaders connected to us who will also become uh junior faculty members. Um my whole proposal stems around building a community of pre and postdoc fellows. Uh and so these are people that will become part of that and and it's about and as I said it's about an ecosystem uh of capacity.

Um and you know the I a lot of the work I do is is international in scope. So, I'm working with partners in the Nordic countries. I'm working with people in Europe. Um, and these are people who are frankly, as Sarah said so beautifully, it's Canada's moment and people are looking to build those partnerships and with that comes uh strength through collaboration.

Jay Jagan: Right.

Sarah Seager: Yeah. I just want to jump in on one point. The reason I left was because when I was growing up, believe it or not, I wasn't allowed to be smart. I wasn't allowed to be ambitious. Wasn't allowed to think big and want a lot of resources for myself. It wasn't part of our culture. And there's a lot of good things about having a culture that's more evenly spread. So I had to go to the US where that is allowed.

But now Canada's changed and is changing. And in order to have innovation, we need some big thinkers. We need some people who are getting a lot of resources and as we heard to share with the community, but to lead the community. So I think to keep people in Canada, not just in academia, but in businesses and startups, we have to let everyone know that this innovative culture is welcomed and supported like it has been for the 64 of us in this first round.

Jay Jagan: There are going to be some challenges. Uh, you know, there's obviously the general excitement of it all, but when it comes down to, you know, boots on the ground, when it comes time to it, there are going to be some, uh, some challenges there. Are you prepared for some of those?

Sarah Seager: I think it's going to be hard to be prepared. I've already run into some of them. At MIT, we operate in a certain way here. Um, there's no small talk, there's no filter. It's like all crazy ideas all the time. And so, I'm not sure how that's going to be taken. And I had a few of these already where like in real time I have to like, you know, say, do I throw this out there? Do I not throw this out there?

And here at MIT, myself and most people are literally on the autism spectrum. And so just going somewhere where more people are just slow, calmer, and like a bit nicer. It's just a little challenging.

Jay Jagan: Right? I am curious coming to a university that really does have a focus on environment as well. Um, but when we're talking about a broader conversation here in Canada, uh, it wasn't that long ago on our program, we were talking about, you know, where does climate and climate change uh, really rest with with Canadians right now when we have so many different priorities. I am curious, you know, how does how do you stop um, you know, some brilliant individuals uh, from perhaps coming with you, researching, but also staying and making sure they stay put with you guys?

Ryan Sullivan: Yeah. So, it really comes down to uh thinking about the long-term sustainability of the whole research ecosystem in Canada. These, you know, oneoff big uh chairs for senior faculty are great, but that's not what's it's going to take to to maintain it. So at the same time that the government has been putting really investing into this talent acquisition program, they've also been cutting the regular uh federal funding and then the provinces play a major role in funding for higher ed and Ontario has the lowest per capita funding um uh in in Canada. So that's another issue to consider um because academia it's a pipeline, right?

So it starts with recruiting students to go to universities to study to go on to graduate school in some cases to do posttock research to become faculty. There need to be appropriate positions and support all along the way or else this is why so many of us end up in the US for a long time even if that wasn't necessarily our intent. Um the culture will definitely be different um from the American kind of feast or famine culture. I personally been looking forward to that. I I kind of appreciate the more socialized culture in Canada, but I do agree with Sarah that we do need to make space and resources um and encourage, you know, innovators um as well.

Sarah Seager: And one thing Ryan and I Ryan and I can talk about more later when we're in Ontario is there is a huge need for technology and defense and the pipeline there. And there will be a lot of opportunity for people to start their own businesses to join businesses as Canada wants to become more sovereign and those who want to work in defense. So I do have some ideas and I you know with us and the business community and everything to create jobs as well for people.

Ryan Sullivan: Absolutely.

Sarah Seager: Yeah. I'm I'm I I'm about to launch a startup company. I'm just waiting until I move. Um so wonderful. Yeah. Totally agree.

Ryan Sullivan: I think we've got some overlap.

Jay Jagan: Sarah Sarah, my last question to you. um you know this is just the beginning but uh what would you like to see from this program? Obviously we are just starting right now outside of discovering an entirely new earth. Uh what is your hope uh for this program and for the not just for the chairs themselves but uh the the graduates and research students that you'll be working with?

Sarah Seager: Well, I'll start um narrow and then I'll get broader. So I hope from my program I'll help inspire a generation of people to go into space science and ultimately into defense wherever we need it because we have a lot of overlap looking up looking down miniature molecular sensors and technology. So I hope we can attract people and send them off.

I hope we will um bring the best in the US to what Canada's already started that is the innovation, the big thinking, the startups. So that's where I hope this whole program is going to be like a self- sustaining engine.

Jay Jagan: We are going to leave it there. I want to welcome you back home. Uh and I'm looking forward um as you get a couple months into uh your new positions, maybe we can have you all come back and join us in studio and we'll see how it's all going. But thank you so much. Really appreciate it.

Jennifer Spence: Thank you so much.

Sarah Seager: Thank you. [music]

Jay Jagan: Do you think Canada's doing enough to keep talent here at home? and would you be willing to relocate to the states for work opportunities? Let us know in the comments or send us an email to rundowntvo.org. Until then, I'll see you tomorrow.