明尼阿波利斯ICE冲突、Clawdbot崛起与美元贬值危机 All-In Podcast 2026-01-31

达沃斯的特朗普时刻

Jason: 欢迎回到 All-In 播客。你们最喜欢的播客,也是播客主们最喜欢的播客。原班四人组再次聚齐。Chamath Palihapitiya 穿着一件极其亮眼的冬日毛衣。看看那些纽扣的大小。

Original English

Jason: All right, everybody. Welcome back to the All-In podcast. Your favorite podcast, podcaster's favorite podcast. With me again, the original Quartet is here. Chamath Palihapitiya in just an absolutely fabulous winter sweater. January looking great. Look at the size of those buttons.

Chamath: 纽扣巨大。

Original English

Chamath: Huge buttons.

Jason: 还有我们的科学苏丹 David Friedberg。你那个背景是什么?是《忧郁与无尽的悲伤》的背景吗?

Original English

Jason: And your sultan of science, David Friedberg. What's the background here? Is that a melancholy and infinite sadness background? I'm trying to figure it out.

Friedberg: J,我们不聊我的背景。谢谢。

Original English

Friedberg: J, we don't talk about my backgrounds. Thank you.

Jason: 幸好,我还有我的战友,我的达沃斯派对搭档 David Sacks

Original English

Jason: Luckily, I have my straight man, my brother in arms, my Davos party crashing partner, David Sacks.

Sacks: 我可是帮你拿到了第一个精英专属活动的邀请。

Original English

Sacks: I got you your first invite to something elite and exclusive.

Jason: 对达沃斯 WEF 有什么后续印象吗?我们参加了很多有趣的会议,大部分不能在节目里公开聊,但那确实是个有趣的活动。

Original English

Jason: Any post Davos WEF impressions? We had a lot of interesting meetings. So most of which I don't think we can talk about on air, but yeah, it was an interesting event.

Sacks: 这是一次截然不同的达沃斯。我们在这里嘲讽达沃斯很多年了,但这一次是商业接管特朗普接管

Original English

Sacks: It was a distinctly different Davos. We've mocked Davos here for many years, but this one was a business takeover and a Trump takeover.

Jason: 没错。Chamath,你一定会喜欢的。整整一天半的时间,所有人都在焦虑唐纳德·特朗普到来时会说些什么。当“老爹”发表 75 分钟演讲时,整个城市都停摆了。所有人都在看电视。接下来的两天,所有人都在讨论特朗普说了什么。

Original English

Jason: Correct. Chamath, you would have loved it. It was 1.5 days of everybody hand ringing of what Donald Trump would say when daddy got there. Then for the 75 minutes daddy gave his talk, the entire city shut down. Everybody ran to a television set. Then for the next 1.5 days, everybody talked about what Trump said.

Sacks: 我觉得这次达沃斯有两个巨大的不同:一是它更加以商业为中心;二是美国人的存在感强得多。我认为这归功于特朗普总统发表了重要演讲,以及现任主席 Larry Fink 的精心策划。他们不再那么迎合欧洲的小众政治议题了。

Original English

Sacks: Basically, I think there are two really big differences with the Davos based on what I heard. One is it was much more business-centric and then second there were a lot more Americans there. I think that that owes to the fact that President Trump gave a major speech there and I think it was Larry Fink who's chairman of the whole thing now who sort of orchestrated that. They're catering a little bit less to kind of boutique European political issues.

欧洲的困境与地缘政治

Sacks: 在开幕晚宴上,Larry Fink 请了几个人简短发言,最后一位是我们的商务部长 Howard Lutnick。Howard 上台后直接投下了“事实炸弹”。他基本上对所有欧洲人说:“我来这里 30 年了,你们完全失败了。你们用净零排放、气候变化和能源政策毁掉了自己的经济。”他还在边境开放问题上痛斥了他们。全场出现了不安的骚动,据报道 Al Gore 甚至在最后发出了嘘声。

Original English

Sacks: At this opening night dinner, Larry Fink calls on like five people to give little speeches and the last one he called on was Howard Lutnick, our Secretary of Commerce. And Howard just goes up there and he just starts dropping truth bombs on them. He basically said to all the Europeans, "Look, I've been coming here for 30 years and you guys have completely failed. You've wrecked your economies with all this net zero stuff and climate change and energy." He really let them have it. It's been reported Al Gore started booing at the end.

Jason: 喝醉了?

Original English

Jason: Drunk on Chardonnay?

Sacks: 整个气候变化议程在达沃斯已经风光不再了。尽管欧洲国家还在坚持这些政策,但它们正在摧毁经济。欧洲人现在感到无法信任美国,觉得我们不再是可靠的伙伴。他们可能不得不作为中等经济体联合起来,建立自己的贸易集团,孤军奋战。

Original English

Sacks: This whole climate change thing was Al Gore's big hoax going back to the '90s. I think the bloom is off the rose in terms of that whole agenda at Davos. They are beholden to this net zero idea. It feels like they're in transition. They don't feel they can trust America or that we're not their reliable partner. They're going to have to sort of get together as the mid-tier economies and they're going to just have to build their own trading block and go it alone.

Chamath: 如果你没有顶尖的 AI顶尖的武器,所谓的“孤军奋战”意味着什么?

Original English

Chamath: I'm not sure what going it alone means if you don't have best-in-class AI or best-in-class weapons.

Sacks: 欧洲人明白美国的重要性,他们拼命想维持 NATO(北约),希望美国留在欧洲。因为在美军到来之前,欧洲的历史就是几百年的战争和内耗,最终导致了两次世界大战的自我毁灭。他们愿意向美国做出巨大让步以确保我们留下。特朗普总统的意思是:你们得共同分担负担,不能一直由我们买单。

Original English

Sacks: The Europeans understand the importance of the United States and specifically they want to keep the US in Europe. They're desperate to keep NATO together because just remember European history before the Americans were there. It's like hundreds of years of wars. The most peaceful period they've ever experienced has been post 1945 when the Americans are there as the great pacifier. So, they do not want us leaving. And I think they're willing to make large concessions to the US. President Trump was saying, "Look, you guys got to share in the burden here."

明尼阿波利斯的ICE冲突

Jason: 好了,进入正题。上个月,DHS(国土安全部)启动了“地铁浪潮”行动,向明尼苏达州派遣了 3000 名联邦特工打击非法移民。在过去三周里,两名明尼苏达人在与联邦特工的冲突中不幸丧生。1 月 7 日,37 岁的 Renee GoodICE 特工枪杀;1 月 24 日,同样 37 岁的 ICU 护士 Alex Prey 被边境巡逻队特工击毙。

Original English

Jason: All right, let's get to work. For background, last month, the DHS started an operation called Metro Surge, sending 3,000 federal agents into Minnesota to crack down on illegal aliens. Over the last 3 weeks, two Minnesotans were tragically killed in altercations with federal agents. January 7th, 37-year-old Renee Good was shot to death by an ICE agent. Then tragically on January 24th, Alex Prey, also 37, was shot and killed by two border patrol agents. Prey was an ICU nurse at the local VA hospital.

Jason: Steven Miller 推特称 Prey 是企图谋杀联邦特工的刺客。特朗普总统已经转向,任命 Tom Homan 负责此事。Homan 表示会制定缩减计划,增加监狱人手,减少街头特工。Sacks,你怎么看?

Original English

Jason: Steven Miller tweeted that Prey was an assassin trying to murder federal agents. President Trump has pivoted and put Tom Homan in charge. Tom Homan said if we get these agreements in place, that means less agents on the street, more agents in the jail. Sacks, your thoughts?

Sacks: 首先,这些死亡是令人遗憾和悲惨的。但特朗普是被美国人民雇来封锁边境并驱逐犯罪移民的。超过 55% 的美国人支持驱逐所有非法移民,超过 90% 支持驱逐犯罪移民。这项政策是有效的,去年的谋杀率下降了 21%。

Original English

Sacks: Well, first let me say the deaths are regrettable and tragic. But President Trump was hired by the American people to do a job, which is to seal the border and deport criminal aliens. Over 55% of the American people say they want all illegal aliens deported and over 90% want criminal aliens removed. This policy is working. Murders were down 21% last year.

Sacks: 明尼阿波利斯采取了不同的做法,发起了针对联邦机构的“大规模抵抗”。这不仅仅是抗议,而是 Antifa 式的行动,旨在阻挠联邦法律的执行。他们通过加密聊天组织,跟踪并骚扰 ICE 特工,用汽车堵路。ICE 特工持有逮捕令,针对的是具体的危险犯罪分子。媒体试图将 Good 和 Prey 描绘成无辜的旁观者,但他们是这些行动的“步兵”,并携带了致命武器。Good 用 SUV 撞击警官,Prey 则持枪挑衅。

Original English

Sacks: But Minneapolis has taken a different approach. They've engaged in a campaign of "massive resistance" to federal authorities. These are Antifa style operations designed to thwart the enforcement of federal immigration law. They stalk and dox ICE agents. ICE is a law enforcement agency. They have warrants to arrest known criminal aliens. The media has tried to portray Good and Prey as simply innocent bystanders. They weren't. They were foot soldiers in these Antifa style operations and they brought deadly weapons to the fight.

移民、人口普查与政治权力

Sacks: 民主党人之所以阻挠大规模驱逐,是因为非法移民是他们权力基础的重要组成部分。在 2030 年的人口普查预测中,非法移民被计入总人口,这决定了国会席位和选举人票的分配。蓝州的人口正在流向红州,非法移民支撑了蓝州的人口数字。如果上次选举有准确的统计,特朗普会多获得 9 张选举人票。这关乎赤裸裸的政治利益。

Original English

Sacks: Why would they want to risk such tragedies? They want to thwart mass deportations because illegal immigrants are a vital part of their power base. Illegal aliens count towards the census which occurs every decade. And the census determines the apportionment of congressional seats and electoral votes. Blue states are expected to lose nine house seats. Illegal aliens in blue states have been propping up those numbers. This is bare knuckle politics.

Chamath: 事实是,绝大多数美国人都希望关闭边境。这是特朗普获胜的原因。但目前的战术确实存在失控的风险。任命 Tom Homan 是件好事,他曾因管理奥巴马时期的驱逐进程而获得奖章。我们需要控制流程,降低热度,同时执行法律。

Original English

Chamath: The will of the majority is pretty clear. Everybody wanted the southern border shut. That's why Donald Trump won. But the reality is that both of these two deaths were complete and total tragedies. It's time to just get control of the process and dial down the temperature because the structural things they are doing are correct.

Friedberg: 我认为联邦执法人员不应该戴口罩,应该佩戴执法记录仪,并出示身份证明。除非有搜查令或合理理由,否则不应随机查人。但任何人都不应身体阻碍执法。如果你不同意法律,应该通过法院或投票去改变它。我个人认为,对于在美多年、纳税且表现良好的移民,应该有通往永久居留权的路径,否则可能会引发内战

Original English

Friedberg: Federal law enforcement agents should not wear masks. They should identify themselves. Ideally, they wear body cams. Short of that, no one should take it into their own hands to obstruct law enforcement. If you disagree with the law, you've got to change the law. My personal view is there has to be a path to permanent residency for individuals who have been in the US for some period of time who have followed laws and paid taxes.

Clawdbot 与 AI 智能体革命

Jason: 好了,Clawdbot(现更名为 Maltbot)一夜之间走红了。我完全沉迷其中。这是一个由奥地利开发者 Peter Steinberger 创建的开源项目。它基本上是一个开源的个人助理,像 Siri 或 Jarvis。

Original English

Jason: All right. Claudebot has gone viral overnight. I am all in on this. This is an open-source project created by Peter Steinberger. So, what is it? It's basically an open-source personal assistant. Think like Siri or maybe Jarvis.

Jason: 它的工作方式是你运行一个服务器,然后授权它访问你的 Gmail、Notion、Slack、WhatsApp 甚至密码管理器。这非常危险,大公司绝不会允许你这么做。但我们在公司里尝试了,我创建了一个虚拟播客制作人。它能即时完成嘉宾研究、撰写邀约邮件、管理 CRM,甚至为自己编写代码工具。它学习速度极快,现在我们甚至为它创建了 LinkedIn 账号。

Original English

Jason: The way it works is you run this like a server. Then you start authenticating it with your services: Gmail, Notion, Slack, WhatsApp. Super dangerous. But we did this and we put it to work. I created a virtual podcast producer. It did all this guest research instantly. Then I said, "Producer X, email Alex." And it wrote and sent the email. It's building its own SAS tools to solve its problems.

Sacks: 这将是 AI 个人助理崛起的一年。以前 AI 主要是聊天机器人和搜索工具,现在我们转向了能为你执行任务的智能体(Agent)。这对 Google 来说是个巨大的机会,因为他们已经拥有了你的邮件和日历数据。

Original English

Sacks: This will be the year of the rise of the personal AI assistant. Until now, AI has mainly come in the form factor of a chatbot. Now, we're moving to a completely different form factor, which is again this AI assistant that's an agent that can do things for you. I think Google is in a tremendous position because Google has all my email, my calendar, my documents.

Chamath: 这就像你第一次使用 FSD(全自动驾驶)或 iPhone 一样,它拓宽了可能性的边界。这不仅仅是一个助理,而是一个“超级员工”。想象一下拥有一支超级员工军队。昨天埃隆关闭了 Fremont 的 Model S/X 生产线来制造 Optimus 机器人。当这种数字能力与物理形式结合,每个人都能成为企业家。

Original English

Chamath: It's almost like the first time you use FSD in your Tesla or the first time you used an iPhone. It's like this super worker. And if you start thinking about having an army of super workers, what's possible? Yesterday, Elon shut down the Model S and Model X production lines in Fremont to make Optimus. That's the future.

开源模型 Kimi K2.5 的冲击

Chamath: 你们不能忽视 Kimi K2.5(注:此处可能指 DeepSeek 或 Moonshot 的开源模型)的重要性。这是一个万亿参数的混合专家模型(MoE)。它使这种推理能力民主化了。它还引入了“智能体集群(Agent Swarm)”技术,允许你创建上百个子智能体并行解决复杂问题。这是对闭源模型的直接挑战。

Original English

Chamath: I don't think people understand how important this Kimmy K2.5 moment is. It's a trillion parameter mixture of expert model. It democratizes something, this trillion parameter reasoning. It allows you to create 100 sub-agents to solve any complicated multi-step problem in parallel. This is the clear shot across the bow of closed source.

Jason: 我们正在订购顶配的 Mac Studio 来本地运行这些模型。这样我们就能控制所有数据,不用担心信息流向 OpenAI。我取消了所有的 OpenAI 账号,省下了 25,000 美元。

Original English

Jason: We are ordering Mac studios to run Kimmy. We'll have control of all the data. We have it on our own hardware. I canceled all of my OpenAI accounts. $25,000 gone.

Friedberg: 当模型在本地开源运行时,立法者那些针对中心化聊天机器人的愚蠢监管就全失效了。我强烈支持联邦 AI 预先授权法案,以避免各州乱搞。

Original English

Friedberg: If all of the models end up running locally on machines in open source, all of the idiotic, dumbass takes by legislators on what they think they need to regulate go out the window. I strongly endorse the effort to pass a federal AI preemption law.

美元贬值与财政危机

Jason: 最后一个重要话题。随着金、银、铜价飙升,美元指数在过去一年下跌了 10%,触及四年低点。特朗普对此表示“这很好”,因为弱势美元有利于美国制造业和出口。Friedberg,你怎么看?

Original English

Jason: One more important story. Dollar index is down 10% in the last year. Trump was asked if the dollar declined too much. His quote, "No, I think it's great." Friedberg, your thoughts on dollar devaluation?

Friedberg: 简单来说,这就是通货膨胀。在民主制度下,如果没有宪法约束,政府支出总是会上升。我们脱离金本位后,就开始疯狂借贷和印钱。看看 M2 货币供应量图表,疫情后它呈加速上升趋势。全球央行现在更倾向于持有黄金而非美债,黄金在央行储备中的占比已经超过了美债。

Original English

Friedberg: Effectively, you've inflated everything. In a democracy, without adequate constitutional constraints, government spending goes up. Eventually, when the borrowing capacity gets unlocked, you borrow like crazy. This is the M2 money supply chart. We now see gold eclipsing US treasuries in central banks' inventory.

Friedberg: 如果你拥有资产(股票、房地产),美元贬值会让你更富有。但大多数美国人没有资产,他们靠收入生活,无法从贬值中获益。这就是民粹主义社会主义的温床。我甚至在想,为了避免内战,某种形式的财富税或财富再分配是否已成为必然。

Original English

Friedberg: If you own assets, as the dollar devalues, your asset prices go up and we get wealthier. The majority of Americans do not own assets. They live off of income and they do not benefit from the de-dollarization. This is what is ultimately fueling populism. I wonder if a wealth tax may be an inevitability in order to keep the US from going into civil war.

加州政治与“大修复”

Jason: 圣何塞市长 Matt Mahan 宣布竞选加州州长。他是一个温和派,没有被工会绑架。

Original English

Jason: Matt Mahan entered the California gubernatorial race. He's the mayor of San Jose. He's much more of a moderate and he's not a union captured candidate.

Sacks: 加州面临万亿美元的养老金债务悬崖。根据州法院的先例,你不能更改雇员入职时的福利承诺。除非修改宪法或允许州政府破产,否则加州无法被救赎。

Original English

Sacks: California has a trillion dollar fiscal cliff coming up because of the pension obligations. There's precedent in California state court that you can never change their future benefits. There are two ways California can be saved: pass an amendment to the Constitution or allow the state to declare bankruptcy.

Jason: 好了,各位。All-In 峰会将于 9 月 13 日至 15 日在洛杉矶举行。YouTube 频道刚刚突破了 100 万订阅。爱你们,再见!

Original English

Jason: All right, everybody. All-in Summit Los Angeles September 13th to 15th. YouTube just broke 1 million. Love you, besties. Bye-bye.

📌 文中提及的人物和组织