对美联储政策的洞察

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Joining us now, wasting too much time. I'm sorry folks. Richard Clardov, Columbia University of PIMCO and of course the former vice chairman of the Fed. Uh, Professor Clair, we're thrilled to have you in today. Can I go nerd for a moment? Sure. Okay. I never talk about the Nobel Prize in economics. It's like bad luck. And I'm not doing that with somebody qualified to get the call from Scandinavia. But I want to go back. This is really important. Richard Clar there can be like in 1980 I've had the honor of talking to Joe Stiglets about Grossman Stiglets which in 1980 I'm kid not kidding folks it was like a fourpage paper it was small it was focused and then with you and you know I don't want to get into you know this or that there's Clarita G um Geler and Galdi okay up at Brown University when you make a paper like that that is treasured by this is on DSG folks it's treasured by all of economics how do you get that paper done that ends up being like hey should they win a Nobel Prize what was the process of doing you know name the paper but I'll go clar Geler the science of monetary policy is just one example

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 现在加入我们，浪费了太多时间。抱歉，各位。理查德·克拉多夫，哥伦比亚大学 PIMCO 的，当然也是前美联储副主席。克莱尔教授，今天非常高兴能请到您。我能稍微“宅”一下吗？当然。好的。我从不谈论经济学诺贝尔奖。这就像不吉利。我也不会对有资格接到斯堪的纳维亚电话的人这样做。但我想回到过去。这真的很重要。理查德·克莱尔，就像 1980 年一样，我有幸与乔·斯蒂格利茨谈论了格罗斯曼-斯蒂格利茨，在 1980 年，我没开玩笑，各位，那是一篇四页的论文，篇幅很小，很集中，然后是您，您知道，我不想深入探讨，有克拉丽塔·G，吉勒尔和加尔迪，在布朗大学，当你们写出一篇备受珍视的论文时，这篇论文被经济学界所珍视，你们是如何完成的，它最终会变成“他们是否应该获得诺贝尔奖？”这个过程是怎样的？点名那篇论文，但我要说克莱尔-吉勒尔的货币政策科学只是一个例子。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. well it was an interesting time because uh the authors Mark Girtler Jordy Galley and I were were sort of uh either early or or or late, but we felt there was a a vacuum in academic economics in that it treated monetary policy as a black box. And we thought these guys are trying to do something sensible. So, we actually worked out essentially a forward-looking tailor rule to describe actual monetary policy. And it turned out that it actually did a good job and it made a lot more sense than the black box. But when we wrote that paper, I don't think we had any idea that it would have the impact that it would. We thought it could get ignored.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 那是一段有趣的时光，因为作者马克·吉尔特勒、乔迪·加利和我，我们当时可能处于早期或晚期，但我们觉得学术经济学存在一个真空，它将货币政策视为一个黑箱。我们认为这些研究者在尝试做一些有意义的事情。因此，我们实际上设计了一个前瞻性的泰勒规则来描述实际的货币政策。结果表明，它做得很好，而且比黑箱模型更有意义。但当我们写那篇论文时，我没想到它会产生如此大的影响。我们认为它可能会被忽视。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Okay. away from you in a modern economics there's a 19th century what's called plug and chug which is you have an equation folks and you fill in the little blanks of the algebraic equation the Taylor rule you can't do that cuz you don't know where the output gap is right now is Jerome Powell flying blind uh well he he's certainly uh flying uh with an obscured uh vision uh out the cockpit uh for sure and I think there's always some uncertainty about things like what is our star or what's the full natural rate of unemployment? But it's probably elevated uh now and the stakes, let's be honest. I guess let me cut to the punchline. The stakes are higher now because of the fact that for the last four years inflation's been above target. And of course in 2021 and 2022 it surged and was not transitory. And so I would argue the stakes are higher now for the Fed than they have been really going back to Paul Vulkar uh 40 years ago.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 好的。脱离您，在现代经济学中，有一种被称为“填空题”的 19 世纪方法，即你们有一个方程，各位，你们只需填入代数方程的空白处，比如泰勒法则，你们做不到，因为你们不知道当前的产出缺口在哪里。杰罗姆·鲍威尔现在是在盲飞吗？嗯，他肯定是在“盲飞”，视野确实被遮挡了，毫无疑问。我认为总有一些不确定性，比如我们的“明星”（通常指潜在产出）是多少？或者充分就业的自然失业率是多少？但现在可能已经很高了，而且风险，说实话，我猜让我直奔主题吧。风险现在更高了，因为过去四年通胀一直高于目标。当然，在 2021 年和 2022 年，通胀飙升且并非暂时现象。因此，我认为美联储现在的处境比 40 年前保罗·沃尔克时期还要严峻。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Does the government shutdown impact the Fed's ability to manage its mandate here in terms of managing interest rates? The longer it goes on, the more that becomes a factor uh in particular because a lot of the data comes from the government including you know inflation data and the labor market uh data. Now the Fed like many other organizations and and in the private sector looks at a wide range of high frequency data. you get ADP, you get a lot of different indicators of the labor uh market. But yes, the longer this goes on uh the more challenging it it is to determine exactly where the economy is.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 政府关门会影响美联储履行其管理利率的职责吗？关门时间越长，这一点就越成为一个因素，特别是很多数据都来自政府，包括通胀数据和劳动力市场数据。现在，美联储和其他许多组织以及私营部门一样，会关注广泛的高频数据。你们有 ADP 数据，你们有很多不同的劳动力市场指标。但是的，关门时间越长，就越难准确判断经济的走向。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. What do you think is the bigger risk for this economy? Is it from the Fed's perspective? Is it the labor market? Is it inflation? Are they evenly balanced here? What do you think the bigger risk is? Well, that was what was important about the September meeting because up until September, uh, JPAL and many on the committee had said, "Look, we have dual mandate employment and inflation and they seem to be roughly imbalance." And at the September meeting, they said, "We're now more concerned about the balance of risk in the labor uh market, and I respect that. But the reality is inflation now, using the Fed's preferred measure, is 2.9%. That's where it was 18 months ago. It's well above two. Um and so there is a risk to both sides. There's a risk if you don't cut rates the unemployment rate goes up a lot. There is a risk that if you do cut rates a year from now inflation stuck in the threes.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 您认为对这个经济体来说，更大的风险是什么？从美联储的角度来看，是劳动力市场？还是通货膨胀？它们在这里是均衡的吗？您认为更大的风险是什么？嗯，这正是九月份会议的重要性所在，因为直到九月份，JPAL 和委员会中的许多人都说：“看，我们有两个使命：就业和通胀，它们似乎大致平衡。”而在九月份的会议上，他们说：“我们现在更担心劳动力市场的风险平衡，我对此表示尊重。但现实是，根据美联储的首选衡量标准，目前通胀率为 2.9%。这和 18 个月前一样。远高于 2%。因此，双方都有风险。如果你们不降息，失业率就会大幅上升。而如果你们降息，一年后通胀可能会停留在 3%。”

AI 驱动的经济变革与生产力

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Um Richard Clar with us talks a former vice chairman of the Fed for an extensive conversation. When we invented this Paul I mean to go from Mandep Singh with his brilliance on AI to professor clarity. I mean this is the way you roll. This is how you do it. This is how you do it. We say good morning to all of you across America worldwide uh as well. Okay. I'm in the basement of the of our building in London with a guy named JeanClaude Trice, the engineer from Leyon. He's brilliant. He goes, "Tom, I think you called me Tom. I can't remember." And he says, "It is about diffusion." And we're talking about productivity. I hate the phrase K-shaped economy because it implies a symmetric distribution. Yeah. Baloney. The productivity that we're all witnessing right now, maybe Jeff Sachs would be good at this. the productivity that we're witnessing. You can't tell me it's evenly diffused across America. Certainly not. How how asymmetric are we in this productivity boom?

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 理查德·克拉尔先生与我们同在，他曾是美联储的副主席，我们进行了深入的交谈。保罗，当我们谈到从 Mandep Singh 关于人工智能的才华，到克拉里蒂教授（Clariti Professor）时。我是说，这就是你们的方式。这就是你们的做法。各位，早上好，问候你们在美国各地以及全世界的朋友们。好的。我在伦敦我们大楼的地下室，和一个叫让-克洛德·特里斯（Jean-Claude Trice）的工程师在一起，他来自 Leyon。他很聪明。他说：“汤姆，我想你叫我汤姆。我不记得了。”他说：“这关乎扩散。”我们正在谈论生产力。我讨厌“K型经济”这个说法，因为它暗示了一种对称的分布。是的。胡扯。我们现在看到的生产力，也许杰夫·萨克斯（Jeff Sachs）会擅长分析。我们正在见证的生产力。你们不能告诉我，它在美国各地是均匀分布的。绝非如此。在这个生产力繁荣时期，我们到底有多么不对称？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Well, I I I think you're 100% uh right. You know, the term in economics um you know, is is it labor augmenting technical change? And I think the answer is yes, but more labor is augmented and other labor over time may be substituted for. And I think that is really the potential disruption from AI is not only does it lift output per hour, but it also could result in at some point in some displacement as as as well. So I think it's too soon to tell, but the minimum we know it's not evenly distributed.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 我完全同意您的观点。在经济学中，我们称之为“劳动增值的技术变革”。我认为答案是肯定的，但更多劳动力的价值得到了提升，而其他劳动力的价值可能随着时间的推移而被替代。我认为这正是人工智能的潜在颠覆性所在，它不仅能提高每小时产出，还可能在某个时候导致一些劳动力被取代。所以，现在下定论还为时过早，但至少我们知道它不是均匀分布的。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Dominique Const over at Missou now, brilliant out of Oxford, Dr. Const would say there's a capital deepening issue here. Explain to our audience this wall of AI money and what that does to the capital dynamics of America. Well, the interesting point is, you remember a couple decades ago, uh, the talk in the US was about the weightless economy that we could get all this GDP without bricks and mortar. And it turns out that at least for this part of the new economy, you need a lot of bricks, a lot of mortar, a lot of servers, and a lot of power generation. So, in some ways to get to the very new economy, you real you need old economy capital spending. And that's that's a pretty interesting period to be in. We think it's going to go on for 5 10 years, but it's a different economy than we we're used to thinking about in the last 20 years.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 多米尼克·康斯特（Dominique Const）在密苏里大学，牛津大学的杰出学者，康斯特博士会说这里存在资本深化问题。请向我们的观众解释一下这股人工智能资金浪潮，以及它对美国资本动态的影响。有趣的一点是，你们还记得几十年前，美国都在谈论“无形经济”，即我们可以获得所有 GDP 而无需砖块和砂浆。事实证明，至少对于新经济的这一部分而言，你需要大量的砖块、砂浆、服务器和发电能力。因此，从某种意义上说，要进入真正的“新经济”，你需要旧经济的资本支出。这是一个相当有趣的时期。我们认为它将持续 5 到 10 年，但这与我们过去 20 年习惯思考的经济体不同。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. You strip out the AI spend. A lot of folks will tell you this economy is not that strong. The capital spending is not that uh good. How do you think about that? Arithmetically, that's correct. You know, in the first half of the year, GDP growth was about 1.6 1.7. If you if you strip out tech investment, then it was somewhere between zero and half of of that. you have to adjust for imports, but but clearly in the first half of the year, it's really been an AIdriven uh capex economy.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 如果你剔除人工智能相关的支出，很多人会告诉你，这个经济体并没有那么强劲。资本支出也没有那么好。您怎么看待这个问题？从算术上看，这是正确的。今年上半年，GDP 增长率约为 1.6%-1.7%。如果剔除科技投资，那么增长率在零到一半之间。你必须考虑进口因素，但很明显，今年上半年，这确实是一个由人工智能驱动的资本支出经济。

全球经济碎片化与日本困境

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. So, one of the issues out there that I guess has gotten pushed to the background a little bit, maybe just because of fatigue, is tariffs and the impact on the economy. We have not necessarily seen meaningful inflation resulting from the tariffs. Um growth seems to be kind of hanging in every strong GDP print a few weeks ago. Um how do you think tariffs will impact the economy if at all? The economy has been uh refreshingly um and and surprisingly uh resilient. Um I don't think there's any doubt about that. Certainly at PIMCO we've revised up our uh outlook. You know Atlanta Fed is now saying Q3 could come in at north of three%. So I actually think it actually in part is because of at the same time we've had the tariff uh hit to the economy, we've also had a justifiable optimism about about tech and and capital spending. So that that's been an important feature. I think the other important feature uh is that um you know some of the tariffs have been absorbed either by the profits of US companies that had a lot of profits to absorb or foreign uh exporters. And then the third piece is we're probably not yet at the at the end point of of tariffs. They will continue to show up in the inflation data at least for um a while. But I think increasingly I and the Fed are of the view and that the Fed's what's important that this is really not going to be an inflationary story. It's a price level adjustment that we're sort of in the middle innings of getting through.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 所以，我猜想有一个问题被推到了背景，也许只是因为疲劳，那就是关税及其对经济的影响。我们并未因此看到明显通胀上升。经济增长似乎在几周前强劲的 GDP 数据中得以维持。您认为关税会如何影响经济，即使有影响的话？经济一直以来都令人耳目一新，而且出人意料地具有韧性。我认为这毫无疑问。在 PIMCO，我们确实上调了我们的展望。亚特兰大联储现在预计第三季度 GDP 增长可能超过 3%。所以我认为，部分原因是，在关税对经济造成冲击的同时，我们也对科技和资本支出抱有合理的乐观态度。这确实是一个重要的特征。我认为另一个重要特征是，一些关税已被美国公司（利润丰厚，能够吸收）或外国出口商所吸收。第三点是，我们可能还没有达到关税的终点。至少在一段时间内，它们会继续出现在通胀数据中。但我认为，我以及美联储越来越倾向于认为，这实际上不会成为一个通胀故事。我们正处于一个价格水平调整的中间阶段。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Again, some nerd knowledge here, folks. Good morning, Global Wall Street. uh Richard Clara with us with Pimco and of course forever with his Colombia uh university. Okay. My path in foreign exchange is Mundelle Mandel Fleming, Jacob Frankl out of Chicago, a guy named Rogoff shows up be no excuse me then Rudy Dornbush up at NBT and this upstart Rogoff and some guy named Opsfeld out at Berkeley. They show up and it goes on and on and on. Let's take it back to Colombia where you have this incredible you that you helped build. Yeah. This incredible synthesis of international economics. Explain to America what Xavier Salah Martin or Robert Mandel the Giant would say about how screwed up, messed up Japan is with weak yen log convex interest rates moving higher. The real rage chart published out of Tokyo today by Bloomberg is grim. Explain why our listeners and viewers should care about the fragility of Japan.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 各位，这里又是一些“宅”知识。全球华尔街的各位，早上好。理查德·克拉尔与我们同在，来自 PIMCO，当然还有他长期任教的哥伦比亚大学。我的外汇之路涉及蒙代尔-弗莱明模型，芝加哥的雅各布·弗兰克尔，一位名叫罗戈夫的人出现——不，抱歉，然后是 NBT 的鲁迪·多恩布什，以及这位崭露头角的罗戈夫，还有一位名叫奥普斯菲尔德（Opsfeld）的人在伯克利。他们都出现了，一直延续下去。让我们回到哥伦比亚大学，那里有您帮助建立的这个不可思议的……是的。这个令人难以置信的国际经济学综合体。请向美国解释一下，Xavier Salah Martin 或巨匠 Robert Mandel 会如何评价日本因日元疲软和利率走高而陷入的糟糕境地。彭博社今天在东京发布的实际汇率图表非常糟糕。请解释为什么我们的听众和观众应该关心日本的脆弱性。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Well, because Japan is obviously a major economy, but it's also an even bigger part of, you know, international financial system with the yen an important currency, especially in riskoff episodes. Somebody has to hold all the JGBs that the government has been uh issuing. And so what happens in Japan also spills over into US uh capital markets and the global economy. And I think what's important for the listeners to understand now is that markets and investors have had sort of a rule of thumb about Japan which is it sort of goes off on its own. It's got deflation. Eventually they'll figure out their fiscal situation. And now Japan has broken out of deflation. They now have inflation. They have positive interest rates. and they're now very much a player in the global financial system.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 因为日本显然是一个主要经济体，但它也是……国际金融体系中一个更大的组成部分，日元是一种重要的货币，尤其是在风险规避时期。有人必须持有政府一直在发行（的所有日本国债 JGBs）。因此，日本发生的事情也会溢出到美国的资本市场和全球经济中。我认为，听众现在需要理解的关键是，市场和投资者对日本一直有一个经验法则，那就是它似乎走自己的路。它曾面临通货紧缩。最终他们会解决自己的财政状况。现在日本已经摆脱了通货紧缩。他们现在有了通胀。他们有了正利率。他们现在是全球金融体系中非常重要的参与者。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Is there but is there any precedent for a successful reflation? I don't see it in the literature. It's original to Japan, isn't it? Well, Japan was went through about a two decade period where they had deflation. Now, it wasn't a spiral, but prices were negative. I think to me, Tom, one of the interesting things about Japan is although the BOJ was trying to reflate the economy, the politicians in the public actually didn't get a vote. They actually like deflation. You know, if you've got you've got your savings in yen under the mattress, you know, deflation is is good for you. So, I think a challenge right now in Japan is they finally after 25 years achieve the positive 2 or 3% inflation, but it's creating substantial political tension as well.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 但是，有成功的再通胀的先例吗？在文献中我没看到。这是日本独有的，不是吗？日本经历了一个大约二十年的通货紧缩时期。虽然不是螺旋式下降，但物价是负的。对我来说，汤姆，关于日本有趣的一点是，尽管日本央行试图刺激经济再通胀，但政界人士和公众实际上并没有得到投票权。他们实际上喜欢通货紧缩。你知道，如果你把日元储蓄藏在床垫下，通货紧缩对你是有利的。所以，我认为日本目前面临的挑战是，经过 25 年，他们终于实现了 2% 或 3% 的正通胀，但这同时也造成了巨大的政治紧张。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Well, I can't emphasize that. That was brilliant. We'll try to do that single best idea. We'll see if the interns get the cut today. But Paul, the the societal change. I was at the White House correspondents dinner and you got this whole security idiocy cuz the president's there and Martin Feldstein standing in front of me. I think Rogoff is my guest. Marty Feldstein standing in front of me. We'd all had six martinis. And he turns around and he says, "Tom, Japan has been lost for two decades." Y that was a societal struggle. Is Japan now found? Is is it out of the wilderness at this point, do you think? Well, it, as I mentioned, you know, narrowly, it certainly is no longer in in deflation. It has positive uh uh interest. I will say just an anecdote, if I'm allowed an anecdote, I visit Japan almost every year for the last 30 years. And most recently this summer, I was struck by not only the boom in the economy, but it is a real tourist magnet now. In fact, if anything in Japan, the politics is such that there are too many tourist, which is a problem they did not have for 25 years.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 我无法强调。那太精彩了。我们会尝试提出那个“最佳想法”。看看实习生今天能不能剪辑出来。但保罗，社会变革。我参加了白宫记者协会晚宴，安保非常愚蠢，因为总统在那里，马丁·费尔德斯坦（Martin Feldstein）站在我面前。我想罗戈夫（Rogoff）是我的嘉宾。马蒂·费尔德斯坦（Marty Feldstein）站在我面前。我们都喝了六杯马提尼。他转过身来说：“汤姆，日本迷失了二十年。”这曾是一场社会斗争。日本现在找到方向了吗？你认为它现在已经走出困境了吗？正如我所提到的，狭义地说，它肯定不再处于通货紧缩之中。它有正利率。我想说，如果允许我讲个轶事的话，我过去 30 年几乎每年都访问日本。最近这个夏天，我不仅对经济的繁荣印象深刻，而且它现在确实是一个旅游胜地。事实上，在日本，政治方面的困扰是游客太多了，这是他们 25 年来从未遇到的问题。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Professor, I got to ask you, or I should say, vice chairman, I've got to ask you. Lisa Cook gets an extended stay at the Fed. What is the significance of Lisa Cook remaining at the Federal Reserve table? Well, obviously the case is at the Supreme Court and so we'll we'll we'll we'll know next year where they end up. Well, what's important is, you know, she continues to serve as a governor. Um, and continues to vote on monetary uh policy. Um, and I think that that is I think that's appropriate.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 教授，我必须问您，或者应该说，副主席，我必须问您。丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）在美联储的任期得以延长。丽莎·库克继续留在美联储的桌旁，有什么意义？显然，这个案子在最高法院，所以我们将在明年知道结果。重要的是，她继续担任理事。并且继续就货币政策进行投票。我认为这是恰当的。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Did Colombia pay for Salah E. Martin's bright colored jackets? Did is that part of his deal? During my time as chair, we did not subsidize the the jackets or the M&M's that he distributes to to class. Uh, but I'm not sure about the current practice. This is you're Davos. Sully Martin's like 3/4 of a mile away and he's there in bright orange. It's like there's the growth guy from Columbia. Richard Clara, brilliant. Thank you so much. Really treasure the comments there. Maybe we'll get him back once we figure out who uh Scandinavia anoints this week as well. Clara is with Pimco. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 哥伦比亚大学是否支付了萨拉·E·马丁（Salah E. Martin）那件颜色鲜艳的夹克的费用？这是他交易的一部分吗？在我担任主席期间，我们没有补贴夹克或他分发给学生的 M&M 糖果。但我不敢确定目前的做法。这是你们的达沃斯。萨利·马丁（Sully Martin）距离这里大概四分之三英里，他就穿着鲜艳的橙色衣服。就像来自哥伦比亚大学的增长专家。理查德·克拉尔，非常出色。非常感谢。非常珍视您的评论。也许我们可以在本周弄清楚斯堪的纳维亚会加冕谁时再请他来。克拉尔在 PIMCO。请继续关注。稍后将有更多彭博监控节目。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10:00 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App or watch us live on YouTube. Joining us now finally, Jane Foley, head out of FX Strategy at Robbo Bank in London. Can't say enough folks about the difference here in that Robbo Bank of the Netherlands, they go back to commercial hedging utilizing foreign exchange back centuries. It's a whole different twist here on the dynamics. Jane Foley, I want you to explain the so what to our American listeners and viewers and those in London frankly as well of a weak Japanese yen out 2.9 standard deviations. What? Why do I care that dollar yen could go to 155? Shockingly weak Japan.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 您正在收听彭博监控播客。工作日东部时间早上 7 点到 10 点，收听我们的直播。在彭博商业应用程序上收听 Apple CarPlay 和 Android Auto，或在 YouTube 上观看我们的直播。最后加入我们的是简·弗利（Jane Foley），荷兰合作银行驻伦敦的外汇策略主管。各位，我得说，荷兰合作银行（Robbo Bank of the Netherlands）的历史悠久，可以追溯到几个世纪前的外汇商业对冲。这对外汇动态来说是一个全新的视角。简·弗利，我想请您向我们的美国听众和观众，以及伦敦的朋友们解释一下，日元疲软 2.9 个标准差意味着什么？为什么我应该关心美元/日元汇率会升到 155？日本经济令人震惊地疲软。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Well, I mean, certainly, excuse me, that's the talk this morning that we could see a move back to 155. And it is all because the market thinks uh well, you know, the yen carriage is back on. You know, we're going to not get the bank of Bank of Japan interest rate hike in October after all. But I would warn that I think this is a really dangerous strategy. And why is it dangerous? Because if you think about the position of uh the LDP leader now and she is of course quite likely to be voted in as the prime minister maybe next week although there's some issues there with her coalition but assuming she is the prime minister you got to wonder does she actually want a weaker yen now the market is assuming that she is going to follow the policies of her mentor Arbe. But of course when Arbe was the prime minister things were very different in Japan. They were still trying to fight deflation. Now Japan has got inflation and she is very concerned that a lot of this inflation is because of imported inflation. And of course if you are worried about imported inflation, why would you want a weaker currency particularly when you want to build a strong relationship with President Trump who according to the Japanese press may stop at Japan in his visit to Asia perhaps at the end of this month. So I I think this could be a quite a dangerous strategy. I'm not quite so certain that the the carriage trade will be on for long.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 当然，这正是今天早上的热门话题，我们可能会看到美元/日元回到 155。这一切都因为市场认为，日元交易的“马车”又回来了。你知道，我们最终不会在十月份看到日本央行的加息。但我会警告说，我认为这是一个非常危险的策略。为什么危险？因为如果你想想（自民党）领导人目前的处境，她很有可能在下周被选为首相，尽管她的联盟存在一些问题，但假设她成为首相，你得想她真的想要一个更弱的日元吗？市场假设她将遵循她导师安倍晋三的政策。但当安倍晋三担任首相时，日本的情况完全不同。他们仍在努力对抗通货紧缩。现在日本有了通胀，她非常担心大部分通胀是由于进口通胀造成的。当然，如果你担心进口通胀，为什么你会想要一个更弱的货币？尤其当你希望与特朗普总统建立牢固关系时，据日本媒体报道，特朗普总统在访问亚洲时可能会在本月晚些时候在日本停留。所以，我认为这可能是一个相当危险的策略。我不太确定“马车交易”还能持续多久。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. And Paul Toro Foco off our Tokyo desk has a brilliant story today showing the in the new inflation the inflationadjusted wages. The Japan people are flat on if that happened in America there'd literally be revolt. They're they're flat on their back with a negative real wage growth. Absolutely. Um Jane, we've got I think the story maybe this week over certainly this year has been gold. We've got gold north of $4,000 per ounce. A lot of folks are saying, "Hey, this is a safe haven, maybe more so than the US dollar." What are folks in your world thinking about the relationship between the US dollar and gold?

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 保罗·多罗（Paul Toro Foco）来自我们东京的编辑部，他今天有一个精彩的报道，展示了新的通胀率下的实际工资。日本人民的生活水平停滞不前，如果这种情况发生在 America，简直会引发起义。他们的实际工资增长为负。是的。简，我认为今年到目前为止，（可能本周）最值得关注的故事是黄金。金价已突破每盎司 4000 美元。很多人说：“嘿，这是避险资产，可能比美元更受欢迎。”在您的圈子里，人们如何看待美元与黄金的关系？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Well, certainly that seems to be, you know, the fashion trade right now, but I do think that there is room for both. And I do think that if we did have say a sudden step up of geopolitical concerns, I think we'd see the dollar and we'd see gold go gold rallying. Although every time the dollar, you know, if the dollar were to recover significantly, of course, I think there would be profit taking first of all in gold. Now, gold I I I think is a real true diversification trade this year and and I think this is where a lot of the buying has come from. you know, if we go back to the first five months of this year that there was this rotation trade away from US assets and maybe that stopped now pause turned around because we do see you know the AI trade the S&P uh making you know such strong gains really since since June but I think there is diversification still amongst that we've seen various different stock markets including EM perform quite well uh this year and we've seen silver do well we've seen Bitcoin do well and I think there is a want by many investors really to diversify by their portfolios and I think that's where the strength in gold is coming from.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 当然，这似乎是目前的潮流交易，但我确实认为两者都有空间。而且我认为，如果我们突然面临地缘政治担忧加剧，我认为我们会看到美元和黄金一起上涨。尽管每次美元……如果你认为美元会大幅反弹，当然，我会认为首先会是黄金的获利了结。现在，我认为黄金是今年真正的多元化交易，而且我认为很多买盘都来自于此。如果你回顾今年前五个月，我们看到了从美国资产撤离的轮动交易，也许现在已经停止了，暂停并逆转了，因为我们确实看到了人工智能交易，标普指数自六月以来确实取得了强劲的增长。但我认为，其中仍然存在多元化。我们看到了包括新兴市场在内的各种不同股市今年表现相当不错，白银表现不错，比特币表现也不错。我认为，许多投资者确实希望实现投资组合的多元化，我认为这就是黄金走强的来源。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Jay, we've we've seen the Bloomberg dollar index um you know, kind of stabilize here over the last uh month or two here. The dollar stabilized. Um is this kind of a new level, do you think for the dollar? Yeah, you know, the dollar is the best performing G10 currency on on the one month view despite the fact that it's still the worst performing on the year to date. And we have seen a lot of stability really over the summer months really since sort of Julyish. And you know a lot has been said over the spring about the the hedging strategies or the the the change in hedging strategies by non uh US dollarbased uh uh fund managers and that probably accelerated the downside of the dollar certainly through the spring. But if we assume that for now, you know, that's done, maybe it could start again, but if we assume it's done, you know, I think what we've got now is short covering in the dollar because there's an awful lot of Fed easing in the price. The market's still a little concerned about whether or not inflation will come through.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 杰，我们看到彭博美元指数在过去一两个月里趋于稳定。美元稳定了。您认为这是美元的新水平吗？是的，美元是 G10 货币中一个月来看表现最好的，尽管它仍然是今年迄今为止表现最差的。在夏季，尤其是在七月份之后，我们确实看到了很多稳定。春季期间，关于非美元基金经理的对冲策略或对冲策略的变化，人们已经说了不少，这可能加速了美元的下跌。但如果我们现在假设这些（对冲）已经结束，也许它们会再次开始，但如果我们假设它们已经结束，我认为现在我们看到的是美元的空头回补，因为价格中已经包含了大量的“美联储宽松”预期。市场仍然有点担心通胀是否会如期到来。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Too much jargon there. Let's let's translate this. Jane, you're saying everybody bet the bank, bet the farm that there would be strong dollar, and now they're turning that trade around and going the other way. It seems that's what happened in the spring. So if we go back to the global financial crisis, uh we've seen you know since then a massive rally outperformance of the S&P 500 and really a massive rally in the value of the US dollar. So everyone was buying uh American assets and during that period um non-dollar-based assets. So really Asian European fund managers uh they were investing a lot more money. there's a lot more money to be invested and a lot of that was finding its way into the US and I think come the beginning of this year the market the dollar's done so well in recent years we weren't that hedged and at the start of this year they started to hedge the dollars

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 这里术语太多了。我们来翻译一下。简，您是说，每个人都倾其所有，赌美元会走强，而现在他们正在扭转这种交易，转向相反的方向。这似乎是发生在春季的事情。如果我们回到全球金融危机，从那时起，标普 500 指数大幅上涨，美元价值也大幅上涨。因此，每个人都在购买美国资产，在此期间，非美元资产……亚洲和欧洲的基金经理投入了更多的资金。有更多的资金可供投资，其中很多都流入了美国。我想，今年年初，市场……近年来美元表现如此之好，我们并没有充分对冲。今年年初，他们开始对冲美元。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Jane we're running out of time we first of all we got to get you in the studio in New York to do like a double barrel like a whole half hour with Jane Foley and Robbang Jane people think I got hired at Bloomberg because of my bow tie it's not true folks I'm in meetings with like Matt Winkler Peter Grower a retiring chairman and they're going dazzle our rods and cones where do you do that you do that in Jane Foley space foreign exchange Jane I'm seeing huge tension if I look at something obscure like sterling Swissy I'm out strong Swiss Frank to new territory new points of tension if I look at Euroyen back up to a 177 week yen points of tension in your world. What do those tensions mean in foreign exchange for the stock market, for the bond market?

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 简，我们时间不多了。首先，我们得请您到纽约工作室来，做一次“双管齐下”的采访，与简·弗利和罗班（Robbang）进行半小时的深入访谈。人们以为我因为我的领结才被彭博社聘用，各位，事实并非如此。我与马特·温克勒（Matt Winkler）、彼得·格罗尔（Peter Grower）以及一位即将退休的主席开会，他们总是让我大开眼界。您在什么地方能做到这一点？您可以在简·弗利的外汇领域做到。简，如果我看看像英镑/瑞郎这样冷门的货币，我看到巨大的紧张。强劲的瑞郎进入新领域，新的紧张点。如果我看看欧元/日元，又回到了 177，日元又到了紧张点。在您的领域，这些紧张关系在外汇市场、股市和债市意味着什么？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Well, I mean, the Nikai 225 has performed really quite well this year, but if you're an overseas investor investing in Japanese assets, well, you're not going to really like the yen going lower. Um, now the yen again seems out of place here because what we've seen is some safe haven assets doing quite well. The dollar stabilizing, the Swiss Frank doing well, gold doing well, but the yen again on the back foot and that to me is another reason uh why this yen selloff is is probably overdone.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 嗯，日经 225 指数今年表现相当不错，但如果您是投资日本资产的海外投资者，那么您肯定不喜欢日元走弱。日元再次显得不合时宜，因为我们看到一些避险资产表现相当不错。美元企稳，瑞郎表现良好，黄金也表现良好，但日元再次处于劣势。在我看来，这是日元抛售可能过度反应的又一个原因。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Okay, Jane Foley, thank you. Thank you so much. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say, "Alexa, play Bloomberg 11:30." Here's the way it rolls, folks. economics, finance, investment, international relations. It's no different than sports, entertainment. Taylor Swift, did you know she has a new album out? I heard that. I I think we're we're efforting her right now, Miss Swift, if you're listening. Bring Jack with you as well at Taylor. Anyways, people keep score. And there's a young kid that came out of York, University of York in England. And all of a sudden, things are working. He's with Capital Economics, which is a really wonderful firm writing clear uh stuff. He's global group, I should say, group chief economist at Capital Economics, but really made a a splash like with the FT and the thinking within England of what in God's name is going on. The summary of it is a wonderful 250 pages. It's a fractured age. Martin Wolf Warbles Gayy on the cover. A guy named Robert Niblt at Chattam House shows up. So does Brad sets Neil Shearing with us in celebration of the fractured age. Did you time the book release for the world falling apart? You need certain things with writing the book, don't you? You need an idea. You need the support of your friends and family. And you need a bit of luck. And I've had luck in spades with this administration. What is the distinction of this fractured age that's not in the zeitgeist now all the bl the 18 newspapers the media people like us what are we missing of this fracture

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 好的，简·弗利，谢谢。非常感谢。请继续关注。稍后将有更多彭博监控节目。这是彭博监控播客。工作日东部时间早上 7 点开始，在 Apple CarPlay 和 Android Auto 上收听彭博商业应用程序。您也可以在亚马逊 Alexa 上收听我们旗舰纽约电台的直播。只需说：“Alexa，播放 Bloomberg 11:30。”各位，事情就这样展开了。经济学、金融、投资、国际关系。这和体育、娱乐没什么区别。泰勒·斯威夫特（Taylor Swift），你知道她有新专辑了吗？我听说了。我想我们正在努力联系她，斯威夫特小姐，如果您在听的话。把杰克也带上，泰勒。总之，人们会记录分数。有一个年轻人来自英国约克大学。突然之间，事情就运作起来了。他在 Capital Economics 工作，这是一家非常出色的公司，写的东西很清晰。他是 Capital Economics 的全球集团首席经济学家，他在《金融时报》和其他地方引起了轰动，改变了英国的思维方式。这本书长达 250 页，名为《分裂的时代》。马丁·沃尔夫（Martin Wolf）和盖伊·沃布尔斯（Gayy Warbles）在封面上。罗伯特·尼布尔特（Robert Niblt）在查塔姆宫（Chatham House）出现。布拉德·赛茨（Brad sets）和尼尔·希林（Neil Shearing）也与我们一起庆祝这个“分裂的时代”。您选择在世界分崩离析时发布这本书，这是否是经过精心安排的？写书需要某些东西，不是吗？你需要一个想法。你需要朋友和家人的支持。你需要一点运气。而在这个政府任期内，我运气好到爆。这个“分裂的时代”的特点是什么，是如今在时代精神中不存在的，是所有报纸、媒体、像我们这样的人所错过的呢？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. I so I think that the genesis of the book was that the rhetoric of deglobalization was everywhere right tariffs going up trade barriers going up this idea that we're returning to the 1930s countries are turning inwards and when we at cap economics looked at the data we saw global trade volumes going up year on year on year. So this idea, the thing that everyone's missing is the idea that the world isn't del globalizing, but clearly something is changing. And as I argue in the book and as we've written about at Capital Economics, the thing that has shifted is the relationship between the world's two major economies, the US and China. They've become superpower rivals and that's causing those economies to both pull apart or fracture and then other economies to have to pick a side essentially. So again, we all grow up in a world of globalization. That's just that's several generations have grown up in that world. Is that still the world we're in in terms of globalization? Cuz it again, it doesn't feel that way.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 所以，我认为这本书的缘起是，“去全球化”的论调随处可见，关税在提高，贸易壁垒在提高，这种想法认为我们正在回到 1930 年代，各国都在变得内向。而当我们 Capital Economics 查看数据时，我们看到全球贸易量逐年增长。所以，大家都在忽视的是，世界并没有在“去全球化”，但显然有些东西正在改变。正如我在书中以及我们在 Capital Economics 所写的那样，发生变化的是世界两大经济体——美国和中国之间的关系。它们已成为超级大国竞争对手，这导致两国经济分崩离析或分裂，其他经济体也因此不得不“选边站”。同样，我们都在全球化的世界中成长起来。几代人都成长在这个世界里。就全球化而言，这还是我们所处的那个世界吗？因为感觉并非如此。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Well, globalization certainly shifted and if you look at trade flows, you can see them see the evidence of that shift in globalization. So uh up to about four years ago, about 3/4 of US cell phones came from China. Less than one in four cell phones are going to be produced in China that are consumed in the US this year with more coming from Vietnam and India. So we're still consuming vast amounts of cell phones and imported vast amounts of cell phones, but the location of the production is shifting and it's shifting for these security reasons.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 全球化无疑已经发生了转变。如果你看看贸易流动，你就能看到这种全球化转变的证据。在四年前，大约四分之三的美国手机来自中国。今年，在美国消费的手机中，在中国生产的不到四分之一，更多来自越南和印度。所以我们仍然消耗大量手机，进口大量手机，但生产地点正在转移，而且是出于安全原因。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Can the global economy truly be global if there is this seemingly broadening divide between China and the West? Well, this there's going to be greater frictions within global trade and capital flows and technology flows, maybe people flows too. Um, as I argue in the book, the key uh economic or the key driver of the economic consequences of this fracturing is going to be twofold. One is how do other countries align? Do can the US block which is enormous kind of hold together or does Trump push everyone apart? And then the second as you allude to Paul is the contours of the fracturing. If it's contained to things like cell phones and batteries and chips and semiconductors and and pharmaceutical products then I think the economic costs are going to be quite limited. You'll be manageable. If we get a much wider fracturing that encompasses many more areas then the economic costs will be much larger. Uh and if if the two sides ever come to conflict then you know all bets are off. We shouldn't worry about the economic costs. Neil sharing with us this the fractured age is a book 250 pages Mr. Wolf over at Financial Times says an exceptionally sensible clear-headed and original thinker. I'll vote for that as well. One of your capital economics essay is Europe flat on his back. We see that with the politics of France and I looked at it at at Sterling Swissy today and my word it looks like Britain after World War II. How fragile is the continental and United Kingdom economy right now?

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 如果中国与西方之间的鸿沟日益扩大，全球经济还能真正全球化吗？全球贸易、资本流动和技术流动，甚至可能包括人员流动，都将面临更大的摩擦。正如我在书中争论的那样，这种分裂所带来的经济后果的关键驱动因素将是双重的。一是其他国家如何站队？美国领导的阵营（规模巨大）能否保持团结，还是特朗普会把每个人都推开？二是，正如你提到的，保罗，分裂的具体形式。如果它仅限于手机、电池、芯片、半导体和药品等领域，那么我认为经济成本将非常有限，可以控制。如果我们看到更广泛的分裂，涉及更多领域，那么经济成本将大大增加。如果双方发生冲突，那么一切都将无法预测。我们不应该担心经济成本。尼尔·谢林（Neil Sharing）与我们分享了《分裂的时代》这本书，共 250 页。金融时报的沃尔夫先生称作者是一位“非常理智、头脑清晰且富有创见的思想家”。我也这么认为。您的 Capital Economics 的一篇文章是《欧洲奄奄一息》。我们在法国的政治中看到了这一点。今天我看了英镑/瑞郎的走势，我的天，看起来就像二战后的英国。目前欧洲大陆和英国的经济有多脆弱？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Well, I think you put the UK to one side. The UK, we have our own fiscal challenges, but actually I don't think they're quite as acute as say France. There's plans underway to reduce the deficit in the UK. The question is really, You're optimistic the UK can get it done. I think we can get kind of muddle our way through. There's enough fiscal fudge going around that we can kind of muddle our way through this one. France, it seems to me, is a bit more intractable. They've had four governments now. fall uh on the back of efforts to try to reduce the budget deficit. The parliament is fractured. There's a presidential election during 2027. All of this political dysfunction is foder for nationalist populists and let's see what happens in the 2027 election. Um now I don't think that we're going to have a repeat of the Euro zone crisis. I don't think we're going to get big debt defaults and banking crisis. The banks in France look pretty well capitalized. They don't hold much government debt, but it's a fiscal crisis uh that is brewing in France. What happens if the right takes over in France? I mean within the five party parliamentary system, the right in Hungary, the right in Poland, the right I mean there's a huge fear almost of I'll call it a Trumpian right in Europe.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 我认为英国的情况可以另行讨论。英国有自己的财政挑战，但实际上我认为它们不像法国那样尖锐。英国正在制定减赤计划。真正的问题是，您对英国能否实现目标感到乐观吗？我认为我们可以勉强应对。有足够的财政“模糊处理”空间，让我们能够应对。法国似乎更棘手。他们已经有四个政府因此试图削减预算赤字而垮台。议会分裂。2027 年将举行总统大选。所有这些政治功能障碍都为民族主义民粹主义者提供了温床，让我们拭目以待 2027 年的选举结果。我不认为我们会重蹈欧元区危机的覆辙。我不认为会出现大规模债务违约和银行危机。法国的银行看起来资本充足。它们持有的政府债务不多，但一场财政危机正在法国酝酿。如果右翼在法国掌权会怎样？在五党议会体系中，匈牙利的右翼，波兰的右翼……我是说，几乎有一种巨大的恐惧，我称之为欧洲的“特朗普式右翼”。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Absolutely. And we're seeing it happen as well. We're seeing this play out in real life. Now I think the the question is what type of rights that might might um might govern. Italy is an interesting um example here. uh we've had a kind of populist right-wing um government for the last couple of years under Georgia Maloney. Actually, they've governed in economic matters in a relatively orthodox way. So, I think it depends as much upon how they govern uh in if they win power as to you know what what the rhetoric. Do you think this is a seinal point for France right now to either stay the course and hope for the best or make it some significant changes? Is there is this a pivot moment? I think we are kind of we're approaching one of those pivot moments. Certainly when it comes to the political structure of France. Um if you look at the rise of the right and you look at the rise of the right across Europe, I mean the center is kind of holding so far. The center held in the German elections last year. Uh the center's held so far in France. The question is will it continue to hold through to 2027 and in those elections?

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 绝对如此。我们也看到了这种情况发生。我们正在现实生活中看到这一幕。现在的问题是，什么样的右翼可能会执政。意大利是一个有趣的例子。在乔治亚·梅洛尼（Georgia Maloney）的领导下，我们已经有一个民粹主义右翼政府两年了。实际上，他们在经济事务上采取了相对传统的治理方式。所以，我认为这在很大程度上取决于他们获胜后如何执政，以及他们的言论。您认为这是否是法国的一个关键时刻，是要坚持现状，寄希望于最好，还是要做出重大的改变？这是一个转折点吗？我认为我们正接近这样的转折点。尤其是在法国的政治结构方面。如果你看看右翼的崛起，看看整个欧洲右翼的崛起，那么迄今为止，中间派力量还在勉强维持。去年德国大选，中间派的力量还在。法国迄今为止，中间派的力量也在维持。问题是，这种力量能否持续到 2027 年的选举？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Neil shuring on the government shutdown of the United States of America. Well, I've just spent two hours. as I came I flew into uh Dallas on uh Monday evening. I spent two and a half hours at immigration because obviously there did you say hello to Lisa Matan? Exactly. So it's um so so it's having a real world consequence now in terms of the impact on the on the economy when we look through the history of government shutdowns. We can't really see them in the economic data. It tends to be a bit of dislocation that gets made up in subsequent months. But again, a bit like France, this speaks to political dysfunction and is, you know, it's as acute here in the US as it is in in Europe.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 尼尔·舒林（Neil Shuring）谈及美国政府停摆。我刚刚花了两个小时。周一晚上我飞抵达拉斯。在移民局我花了两个半小时，因为显然……您跟丽莎·马坦（Lisa Matan）打招呼了吗？正是如此。所以，它正在产生现实世界的后果，对经济产生影响。当我们回顾政府停摆的历史时，我们很难在经济数据中看到它们。它往往是一些短期错位，然后在随后的几个月里得到弥补。但同样，有点像法国，这反映了政治功能障碍，而且，这种功能障碍在美国和欧洲一样严重。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Congratulations, Neil. She sharing the fractured age. Can't say enough about it. Really an abrupt read uh and welltimed uh to say uh the least. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal. A special moment here for Bloomberg Surveillance this morning, our essay of the year. I'm thrilled to announce this. We'll do that here in a moment. Stay with us across America, around the world. Can I just suggest this hour of Bloomberg surveillance sponsored by generous electric field Massachusetts. We'll do that as well. Futures up 10, Dow futures up 138. Bloomberg surveillance this morning brought to you by IBKR. Will the US consumer sentiment index exceed 60 in October 2025 at IBKR forecast trader? The yes was recently at 33%. Start predicting today at ibkr.com/for. Last trading day for this contract is October 25.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 恭喜你，尼尔。《分裂的时代》。我对此赞不绝口。这本书确实读起来很尖锐，而且时机也很恰当。请继续关注。稍后将有更多彭博监控节目。这是彭博监控播客。工作日东部时间早上 7 点开始，在 Apple CarPlay 和 Android Auto 上收听彭博商业应用程序。您还可以在 YouTube 上观看我们的每日直播，以及随时在彭博终端上收听。今天早上彭博监控有一个特别时刻，我们今年的最佳文章。我很激动地宣布这个消息。我们稍后会做。请继续关注，无论您在美国各地还是世界各地。我能否建议一下，本小时的彭博监控节目由麻萨诸塞州慷慨的电力公司赞助。我们也会这样做。期货上涨 10 点，道琼斯期货上涨 138 点。今天早上的彭博监控节目由 IBKR 呈现。2025 年 10 月，美国消费者信心指数是否会超过 60？IBKR 预测交易者……是的，最近为 33%。今天就开始预测，网址是 ibkr.com/for。该合约的最后一个交易日是 10 月 25 日。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. So over a decade ago, David Brooks did an essay in the New York Times. It was my essay of the year on the nerds and the smooth guys on Wall Street. It was brilliant on the cultural divide on Wall Street. I still quote it in speeches all the time. Brilliant essay this year. My essay of the year is on the generational divide that we live every single day. Paul's limited. I'm living. Tucker, do you have offspring? Yeah. Okay. Off as well. Joining us now with my essay of the year. This was out of the Wall Street Journal uh a number of days ago and she's made a huge splash with it is Professor Susie Welch of NYU. Is Gen Z unemployable? It has created a firestorm of comment and I have to go to this because the last time Susie I think I saw you was with a guy named Jack Welch. When did you decide to go into the dark cavern of academics at NYU? What was the path? You didn't have to do this.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 十多年前，大卫·布鲁克斯（David Brooks）在《纽约时报》上发表了一篇文章。那是我当年的年度最佳文章，主题是华尔街的“书呆子”和“圆滑的人”。这篇文章对华尔街的文化 Divide 进行了精彩的论述。我至今仍在演讲中引用它。今年的优秀文章。我今年的最佳文章是关于我们每天都生活的代际 Divide。保罗的时间有限。我来住。塔克，你有孩子吗？有。好的。还有其他人。现在加入我们的是我今年的最佳文章。这篇文章几天前发表在《华尔街日报》上，引起了巨大反响，作者是纽约大学的苏茜·韦尔奇（Susie Welch）教授。Z 世代是无法雇佣的吗？这篇文章引起了轩然大波，我不得不谈论这个话题，因为上次我见到苏茜，我想是在和一位名叫杰克·韦尔奇（Jack Welch）的人在一起。你是什么时候决定进入纽约大学学术界的“黑暗洞穴”的？你的经历是怎样的？你本来不必这么做。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. I did not. I had been uh in broadcast journalism for a bunch of years and then um I was running a small uh tech music tech company and uh the pandemic uh brought it to its knees and then um Jack passed away and I went up to the woods of upstate New York with all my kids and all their spouses and all of our dogs and then the pandemic ended and everybody went back to life. I had been cooking up in my mind a class called Becoming You, which was going to help people figure out what to do with their lives, which was what I was trying to figure out what to do with my life. Yeah. And I brought it to NYU Stern and to the dean there who I knew from my previous life. And I said, "I've got this class I wish I'd taken in business school that has a methodology that helps you figure out what to do with your life." And he said, "Well, let's let's try it as an experiment."

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 我没有。我曾从事广播新闻业多年，然后，我经营了一家小型科技音乐科技公司，而疫情让它举步维艰。之后，杰克去世了。我带着我的孩子们、他们的配偶和我们所有的狗去了纽约州北部的森林。然后疫情结束，每个人都恢复了正常生活。我一直在构思一门名为“成为你”（Becoming You）的课程，旨在帮助人们弄清楚自己的人生道路，这正是我自己试图弄清楚的人生道路。然后我把它带到了纽约大学斯特恩商学院，找到了我之前认识的院长。我说：“我有一门课程，我希望我在商学院时就能学到，它有一种方法论，可以帮助你弄清楚你的人生该怎么走。”他说：“好吧，让我们把它作为一个实验来尝试。”

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Be before we get to the essay. Yes. What's what reeks in this essay is academic rigidity. This is not some fancy person like Susie Welch who decided to get some cushy thing going. There was some real work involved here. This is like legit countable academic research, isn't it? Yes, I'm proud to say that it is. I mean, it was conducted by myself and my team, which includes all the usual suspects of psychometricians and data analysts and so forth. So, we the research I think is um I'm really proud of it. It's rock solid. 40,000 people, 7,000 plus Gen Z types. Yeah.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 在我们谈论这篇文章之前。是的。这篇文章中令人反感的，是学术的僵化。这不是像苏茜·韦尔奇（Susie Welch）这样一位悠闲自在的人，决定做些轻松的事情。这里面有真正的工作。这是合乎规范、可以计数的学术研究，不是吗？是的，我很自豪地说，确实如此。我是说，这是由我和我的团队进行的，其中包括所有惯常的心理测量学家、数据分析师等等。所以，我认为这项研究……我为之感到非常自豪。它非常扎实。涉及 40,000 人，7,000 多名 Z 世代。是的。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. When did the shack set in over your outcome and describe that? Well, there's a bunch of, you know, look, I teach Gen Z every single day. I mean, every semester I hundreds of students. So, my shock was perhaps less than the rest of the team because I'm in the room with them. Now, NYU students are not quite um as uh representative of Gen Z as outside of NYU. These are MBA, so they tend to have a little bit more gr. Um uh I think that when we saw the 2% number which uh we can get to um we were all like we we checked it about 35 times because we thought that is much find that number get to that. So what we did is, we have a tool called the values bridge, which we developed in the uh in our labs and what it does is it ranks your values from 1 to 16 your personal values from 1 to 16. Um and so we um now 75,000 people have taken this test but at the time we did the research it was 45,000 people and we were able to cut it by generation and we were able to see Gen Z's values ranked from 1 to 16 and their number one value is something we call udemonia which is encompasses self-care recreation leisure funemployment you know just sounds like John Tucker Paul I think we all know somebody udimonia is their number one value number two was authentic self-exression voice as we call it and number three was um the desire to organize their life around helping other people, which is very admirable, I would say. Um, but after I saw those top three values, I thought, I wonder what hiring managers are looking for because my students are going out into the world to get hired. I have four adult children uh who are fighting out there in the world every day. So we did a separate uh study and we replicated it twice um after that um to uh to say okay um here are the definitions of all the values hiring managers in in knowledge industries mainly business it was tech it was uh it was accounting finance and so forth the consulting what values are you looking for and lo and behold they were looking for the number one value of achievement the desire to have success that other people can see number two was a desire for learning stimulation and growth and the third value was work centrism the desire to work um hard and uh when you cross uh reference those two data sets, it ends up that um it's just 2% of Gen Z that have the values that uh hiring managers are looking for.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 您在结果出来后才感到震惊吗？请描述一下。你知道，我每天都教 Z 世代。我每学期都教几百名学生。所以，我的震惊可能比团队其他成员要小，因为我每天都在他们身边。当然，纽约大学的学生不像校外的 Z 世代那样具有代表性。他们是 MBA 学生，所以他们往往更有“动力”。我们看到 2% 这个数字时，我们都反复核对了大约 35 次，因为我们觉得这个数字太难以置信了。我们使用的工具是“价值观桥梁”，这是我们在实验室开发的，它可以对个人价值观进行 1 到 16 的排名。我们已经有 75,000 人参加了这个测试，但在研究进行时，有 45,000 人。我们可以按代际划分，看到 Z 世代的价值观排名从 1 到 16。他们的第一价值观是“eudaimonia”，包括自我关怀、娱乐、休闲、有趣的就业……听起来就像约翰·塔克（John Tucker）和保罗。我认为我们都认识这样的人，“eudaimonia”是他们的第一价值观。第二是“真实自我表达”，我们称之为“声音”。第三是“围绕帮助他人组织生活的愿望”，这非常令人钦佩。但在看到这前三个价值观后，我想，我在想招聘经理在寻找什么？因为我的学生们正走向社会去寻找工作。我有四个成年子女，他们每天都在社会上奋斗。所以我们又进行了一项独立的研究，并重复了两次，目的是弄清楚……招聘经理在知识型行业（主要是商业、科技、会计、金融、咨询等）中寻找哪些价值观。结果是，他们正在寻找的第一价值观是“成就”，即渴望获得他人可见的成功。第二是“学习、激励和成长的愿望”。第三个价值观是“工作中心主义”，即努力工作的愿望。当你对比这两组数据时，结果是，只有 2% 的 Z 世代拥有招聘经理正在寻找的价值观。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. It's interesting. I have four Gen Z adjacent kind of uh offspring. They're all employed. Um but they tell me their first memories of my oldest were 911. That's their first memory. And then they had uh you know the great financial crisis, right? Their parents were impacted. Everybody's parents are impacted. Then they had the pandemic. So they've had some stuff, you know, and I wonder if that influences kind of how they they view the world. Yeah. I think they don't want to buy into a deal that their parents bought into that didn't work out for a lot of their parents. I mean, you can you can come up with a hundred reasons why they have these values and they're entitled to them. I think that the problem is values have consequences and so some of them also have affluence as a top value and then they are very frustrated and and frustrated to the point of kind of anger that they don't get to have uh affluence also as an output if you have the value self-care number one so they can have their val I don't you know how they came by their values I get it there's a million reasons I mean their parents might be to blame I mean with the torrent of letters that came to the letters to the editor after the article ran a lot of people had a lot of people they wanted to blame for this phenomenon Yep.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 这很有意思。我有四个接近 Z 世代的子女。他们都找到了工作。他们告诉我，我最大的孩子最初的记忆是 9/11 事件。那是他们最初的记忆。然后他们经历了……大金融危机，对吧？他们的父母受到了影响。每个人的父母都受到了影响。然后是疫情。所以他们经历了一些事情，我不知道这是否影响了他们看待世界的方式。是的。我认为他们不想像他们的父母那样，为了某种并没有为许多父母带来好结果的交易而投入。我是说，你可以找出一百个理由来解释他们为什么有这些价值观，而且他们有权拥有。我认为问题在于价值观会带来后果，所以他们中的一些人也将“富裕”作为首要价值观，然后他们非常沮丧，沮丧到愤怒的地步，因为如果“自我关怀”是他们的首要价值观，他们就无法获得“富裕”作为结果。我不知道他们是如何获得这些价值观的，我理解。原因有很多。我是说，他们的父母可能要负责。我是说，文章刊登后，编辑收到了大量的来信，很多人都想为这种现象找替 giudice。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. What does corporate America do here? Does corporate America adjust, do you think, or do they just find some common ground? Maybe. This is the million-dollar question. So, I've talked to a lot of business leaders since the piece came out. And so, the companies with brand equity who can go higher, the 2% are out looking for them earlier. And they, one executive said to me, "This is a cage match. We're willing to fight." All right. They're going to go find that 2%. They're going to go get them earlier and they're going to lock them down. And then uh other companies are going to have to figure out what to do about the fact that they're not going to be hiring young people who share their company values and do they accommodate them or do they try to slowly move them over to a different way of thinking. It's very hard to talk people out of their values.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 那么，美国企业该怎么办？您认为美国企业会调整，还是会找到一些共同点？也许吧。这是个百万美元的问题。自从文章发表以来，我与许多商界领袖进行了交谈。那些拥有品牌价值、能够做到高人一等的公司，正在提前寻找那 2% 的人才。一位高管对我说：“这是一场笼斗。我们愿意战斗。”他们会去寻找那 2% 的人才，提前去争取他们，并把他们牢牢地锁定。而其他公司则不得不思考，他们将如何应对这样一个事实：他们将无法雇佣那些认同公司价值观的年轻人。他们会迁就他们，还是会试图慢慢地引导他们接受另一种思维方式？要改变人们的价值观非常困难。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. However, what do you find in the NBA program? Because you said um those people kind of self-select. they've we they want to achieve presumably, but again, I would suspect you see some of that in your classroom. I mean, I see a preponderance of udeonia, self-care being a top value. I do have MBAs, okay? And so, um, and in particular, the MBAs who are majoring in finance, those they have a lot of the values that companies are looking for, and they're picked off pretty early. Um, but I don't think this is true in colleges in general, and I think there's a few, and this is what I mean, is that companies are going to figure out where the 2% are, and they're going to come get them, and they're going to get them early. So, how about for these these kids though? I mean, do they do they recognize that maybe they are in fact different from certain maybe their parents and maybe their grandparents and others and they they're defiant and they're okay with that?

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 但是，你在 MBA 项目中发现了什么？因为你说……这些人是自己选择的。他们希望取得成就，但同样，我怀疑你在课堂上也能看到一些这样的情况。我的意思是，我看到“eudaimonia”（自我实现、幸福感），“自我关怀”是一个首要价值观。我的确有 MBA 学生，好吗？特别是那些主修金融的 MBA 学生，他们有很多公司正在寻找的价值观，而且他们很早就被挖走了。但我不认为这在普通大学里普遍存在，我认为有一些……这就是我的意思，公司将找出那 2% 的人，他们会来争取他们，而且会尽早争取。那么，对于这些孩子呢？我是说，他们是否认识到，他们可能确实与他们的父母、祖父母以及其他人不同？他们是“反叛的”，而且他们对此感到满意吗？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. No, they're defiant. I mean, they're not just okay. Uh they're they're they're defiant. They're like you I mean what the letters from Gen Z that I got, the emails were like, "Hey, shut up over there, lady, because um you ruined the world. You boomer people ruined the world." And our response is this. And why would we want your values? Look what you did to us with climate change and terrorism and school shootings. You created this world. Why would we buy your version of events? Wow. We welcome all of you across America. It is my essay of the year. Susie Welch, professor, New York University with us. It's in the Wall Street Journal. It's created a firestorm of comment including from the kids uh in my family as well. Susie, I had the honor of talking to a guy named Jack Welch and frankly on the Jeff EML as well. Is the magic of the corridor from Pittsfield, Massachusetts through Albany out the Mohawk River Valley every single 19th early 20th century industrial ex exercise out to the great Eastman Kodak company. GE 1912 invented a defined benefit pension plan. those companies, Carrier in Syracuse, Kodak and Rochester, they took care of their employees. What you're going to hear in your classroom, what I hear every day is the loyalty has been broken because of the employers. What do employers need to do to increase that 2% to a much larger number? Um, I think that uh they can't do what they would need to do, which is promise long-term employment. I mean, people feel loyal when they feel like, okay, I'm investing my time in a company and I'm going to be here in two or three years and my boss is going to be here. Full disclosure, Bloomberg LP every day. It's a privilege. I mean, that's where we come from, the three of us in this room, right? Well, you got probably a sense that look, this company is healthy and it's thriving and we're all going to be here and I'm willing to give myself to this organization and to work the extra hours because we're all going to be here together. And but for most people going into organizations, there's this constant sense of fragility and we may not be here. I could be gone tomorrow. Why would you invest in yourself in that? And so that contract is pretty much over. Now there are places I think JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, you can go and think I I could try to build my whole career here, but there's not a lot of companies like that anymore.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 不，他们是反叛的。我的意思是，他们不仅“还好”。他们是反叛的。他们就像你一样……我是说，我收到的 Z 世代的信件、电子邮件是这样的：“嘿，闭嘴吧，女士，因为是你毁了世界。你们这些婴儿潮一代毁了世界。”我们的回应是这样的。我们为什么要接受你们的价值观？看看你们给我们带来的气候变化、恐怖主义和校园枪击事件。你们创造了这样一个世界。我们为什么要接受你们的叙事？哇。欢迎你们所有人来到美国。这是我今年的最佳文章。苏茜·韦尔奇，纽约大学教授，与我们同在。文章发表在《华尔街日报》上。它引起了广泛的评论，包括我家孩子们的评论。苏茜，我有幸与一位名叫杰克·韦尔奇的人交谈过，坦率地说，还有杰夫·埃尔（Jeff EML）。皮茨菲尔德、马萨诸塞州，经奥尔巴尼，穿过莫霍克河谷，从 19 世纪初到 20 世纪初的工业历程，一直到伟大的伊士曼·柯达公司，这其中的“走廊魔力”是否存在？通用电气在 1912 年发明了固定收益养老金计划。那些公司，雪城（Syracuse）的开利（Carrier）、罗切斯特（Rochester）的柯达，它们照顾着员工。你们将在课堂上听到的，我每天听到的，是由于雇主的原因，忠诚度被打破了。雇主需要做什么才能将那 2% 的比例提高到更高的数字？我认为，他们无法做到他们需要做的事情，那就是承诺长期雇佣。我是说，当人们觉得“好吧，我正在一家公司投入我的时间和精力，我将在两三年后还在那里，我的老板也会在这里”时，他们就会感到忠诚。全方位披露，彭博社每天。这是一种荣幸。我是说，我们三个人都在这个房间里，我们的起点就是这里，对吧？嗯，你可能感觉到，看，这家公司很健康，正在蓬勃发展，我们都会在这里，我愿意奉献自己给这个组织，并加班工作，因为我们都会一起在这里。但对于大多数进入组织的人来说，有一种持续的不安全感，我们可能不在。我明天就可能离开。为什么要在这种情况下投资自己？所以，这种契约基本上已经结束了。现在有一些地方，我认为摩根大通、高盛，你可以去那里，并认为“我可以试着在这里建立我的整个职业生涯”，但现在已经没有多少公司是这样的了。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. A lot of it is technology. Um there's so much technology out there and there's so much. Is that a net positive? Like do the kids in your class feel like that's a net positive? AI is probably all over your your daily issues with your dealings with your students. Is that a is technology with hindsight a net positive or a net negative from your

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 其中很大一部分是技术。那里有太多的技术，还有太多……这是净积极的吗？你班上的孩子们觉得这是净积极的吗？人工智能可能充斥着你与学生打交道的日常问题。从现在来看，技术是净积极的还是净消极的？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. This is I I don't know the answer. Sometimes I think it's a real net negative and in what it's done to how much we talk to each other. But I will say that my students are terrified because of AI like right AI is taking the jobs they would do. AI you know a first year consultant or first year analyst they're like deer in headlights like what jobs are left for us? How where are our entry points? That's why a that's why technology is scary. Now when it comes to using AI for homework that's a totally different

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 我不知道答案。有时我认为它是一个真正的净负面因素，因为它影响了我们彼此沟通的方式。但我不得不说，我的学生们很害怕人工智能，因为人工智能正在抢走他们会做的工作。你知道，一个第一年的顾问或第一年的分析师，他们就像受惊的鹿，想着：“还有什么工作留给我们？我们如何进入？”这就是为什么……这就是为什么技术令人恐惧。现在，谈到用人工智能做家庭作业，那是完全不同的……

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. What is your experience? What do you what do you see? Uh when it first came out they were using it a lot and then as teachers we got very savvy about how to phrase the homework you know from your personal experience. Um and then I look at my students I say, you know, it's against the rules to use this on exams and I'm asking you personally for reasons of integrity do not use AI and generally they

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 您有什么经验？您看到了什么？当它刚出现时，他们使用得很多，然后作为老师，我们变得非常精明，知道如何措辞作业，你知道，基于你的个人经验。然后我看着我的学生说，你知道，在考试中使用它是违反规则的，我个人要求你们出于诚信的原因，不要使用人工智能，一般来说，他们……

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. I use I'm in aerospace engineering at Boulder. Yeah, I got through the great books English course off the cliffotes. I mean, is there any difference between the cliffnotes and AI? Um, that's a good point. I think that AI does the thinking for them with the cliffnotes usually you would then go into a classroom and you would be forced to discuss issues, but AI, right, you know, does the thinking and the talking. Explain to me what I also see particularly when I'm giving speeches between the American Gen Z. Yeah. And the hungry for is a stereotype. The hungry for kids, recent immigrants second. They're not buying the Gen Z thing. They're focused and they're killing it in differential equations. It's stern.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 我使用……我在博尔德（Boulder）的航空航天工程系。是的，我通过了“名著导读”（Great Books）英语课程，使用了“cliffnotes”（概要）。我是说，“cliffnotes”和人工智能之间有什么区别吗？这是一个很好的观点。我认为人工智能替他们思考了。而使用“cliffnotes”通常意味着你会被迫进入课堂讨论问题，但人工智能，你知道，它代替了思考和讨论。请向我解释一下，尤其是当我发表演讲时，我看到的美国 Z 世代之间的情况。以及……（口音）……这是一个刻板印象。那些“渴望”的孩子，近期移民，第二代。他们不认同 Z 世代的说法。他们专注于学习，他们在微分方程方面做得非常出色。这是斯特恩（Stern）商学院。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. All right. So, this is what I want to say to that. Um and I want to wait till the data comes in but we are currently running the exact same study in three different places. one with first generation immigrants as part of the Gen Z and then we are uh attempting in a collaboration with a different school um to do it for this exact study in India and I don't know if we'll be able to do it but in China and I think that has uh implications for American competitiveness because if it comes back then in India uh 82% of Gen Z has uh hiring managers um values right

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 好了。所以，这是我想说的。我想等到数据出来，但我们目前正在三个不同的地方进行完全相同的研究。一个是在 Z 世代中，涉及第一代移民；然后我们正试图与另一所学校合作，在中国进行这项研究；我不知道我们是否能做到。我认为这对美国竞争力有影响，因为如果在印度，Z 世代中有 82% 的人拥有招聘经理看重的价值观……

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. that's worrisome this Susie Welch is my essay of the year it's in the Wall Street Journal on Jenz thrilled she could come in to to celebrate the research of it at New York University. Paul, finish it up, please. I wonder if Jen Z cuz I can I live with them every day will be if they if their values will change as they as they age and they say, "Boy, I got a mortgage now."

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 这令人担忧。苏茜·韦尔奇，这是我今年的最佳文章，发表在《华尔街日报》上，关于 Z 世代。她能来庆祝这项研究成果，真是太棒了，这都是在纽约大学完成的。保罗，请您来总结一下。我想知道 Z 世代，因为我每天都和他们打交道，当他们随着年龄增长，有了房贷之后，他们的价值观是否会改变？

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Values generally don't change. Okay. All right. Values are generally set by the time we're 25 years old because a lot of things go into that stew. What changes is how much we express them or repress them. So I think what will happen is Jen Z will keep these values because unless you have a seismic event, your values generally stay the same your whole life. Um the seismic event may be not getting a job and then therefore they'll repress certain values or they'll suppress them not happily.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 价值观通常不会改变。好。价值观通常在我们 25 岁之前就定型了，因为很多因素都融入了这个“大杂烩”。改变的是我们表达或压抑它们的程度。所以我认为会发生的是，Z 世代将保留这些价值观，因为除非发生地震般的事件，否则你的价值观通常会伴随你一生。地震般的事件可能是找不到工作，然后他们就会压抑某些价值观，或者不情愿地抑制它们。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Are you do you see that as again you're the one of the top NBA programs in the world here? Um my first sponsor first people to step up. My my point is half of Global Wall Street came out of the Stern program. They're everywhere. Absolutely true. Absolutely true. Um I mean, has the student body changed there, do you think? Um uh and my students who I don't want to make generalizations, but my students who are first generation generally are in that 2%. So they're not changing anything. They're like they've got their parents' values and they're there to win and they are uh clearly already there. I don't see the change yet. Right now I just see uh shock, you know. Okay. Nobody doubts the research, right? They don't know what they're going to do.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 你看到了这一点吗？再次强调，您是世界上顶尖的 MBA 项目之一。我的第一个赞助商，第一个站出来支持的。我的观点是，全球华尔街的一半人都出自斯特恩（Stern）项目。他们无处不在。绝对正确。绝对正确。你认为那里的学生群体有变化吗？我的学生们……我不想做以偏概全的判断，但我的第一代学生通常属于那 2% 的群体。所以他们不会改变什么。他们就像拥有父母的价值观，他们来这里就是为了赢，他们显然已经做到了。我还看不到变化。现在我只看到震惊。好。没有人怀疑这项研究，对吧？他们不知道自己该做什么。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Do you give out C's? Okay. I just, you know, just a vignette, folks. I had a privilege of Ruth Rebecca Stuick in mathematics 100 million years ago. It was a curved grade like in England where it's much tougher. Could you give uh Professor Welch a Tito's and Tang? That's the morning drink here. Susie. Susie, I I I look at the great inflation and it's a joke. I mean, I killed myself for a quality C in organic chemistry. Yes, I did too. I have I want you to know something. I have given a C. Uh it's not a very common thing, but the uh what the student maybe should have gotten was different than a C. Uh but I gave a C. It felt like a very brave and daring thing to do. Um I spoke to the academic dean beforehand saying I'm giving a C. I event. Yeah. Because look, there's a there's great inflation everywhere. You know, I I I'd be lying to say there wasn't. Uh should we be giving C's to students to say, "No, no, no. We got to get jobs. Please don't do that to us."

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 您会给 C 吗？好的。我只是……各位，我讲个小插曲。1 亿年前，我有幸在数学课上得到了露丝·丽贝卡·斯图伊克（Ruth Rebecca Stuick）的指点。那是一门按比例评分的课程，就像在英国一样，那里要求更严格。您能给韦尔奇教授来一杯“Tito's and Tang”吗？这是这里的晨间饮品。苏茜。苏茜，我……我看看“大缓考”（great inflation），这简直是个笑话。我是说，我为了在有机化学中拿到一个像样的 C 真是拼了老命。是的，我也是。我想让您知道一件事。我给过 C。这并不常见，但那个学生可能应该得到的是不同于 C 的评价。但我给了 C。我觉得这是一种非常勇敢和大胆的行为。我事先和学术院长谈过，我说我要给一个 C。我……是的。因为看，到处都存在“大缓考”。我撒谎说不存在，那是在撒谎。我们是否应该给学生 C，来说：“不，不，不。我们得找工作。拜托别这样对我们。”

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. But employers are not allowed to ask your GPA. No one in the control room has ever gotten a C. That's what No. Let's go around the room. Duke Business School back in the early 90s, you had 20 classes. And if you passed all 20, they stamped your passport and I could go back to Wall Street at twice to pay. So the saying was 20 P's equals 60 G. My grades mattered. My grades at Harvard Business School, my grades at Harvard, they both mattered a lot. And I worked so hard. And I I did ask, do they work the same hard today that you lived at HBS? I don't know. I don't know cuz I'm not there. Could these kids get through Michael Porter? Uh at HBS right now. I got to believe it. They can. I mean, I I I don't know cuz I'm not in that classroom. I I asked my friends there. Here's what's different. This Bloomberg LP is managed by 20 and 30 somethings. So we're the outliers here and the smartest people running these businesses are to me kids. But they are so smart. They are so driven. They're so creative. I hired a bunch of them from Bloomberg intelligence. I I'm not. I'm fine. I'm I'm comfortable with this. The kids are all right. The kids are all right.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 但雇主不允许询问您的 GPA。控制室里没有人得过 C。这是……不。我们环顾四周。 90 年代初杜克大学商学院，有 20 门课程。如果你通过了全部 20 门，他们就会在你的护照上盖章，我就可以以双倍的薪水回到华尔街。所以当时的说法是：“20 个 P 等于 60 个 G。”我的成绩很重要。我在哈佛商学院的成绩，我在哈佛的成绩，都非常重要。我付出了巨大的努力。我确实想问，他们今天是否像您在哈佛商学院时那样努力工作？我不知道。我不知道，因为我不在那里。这些孩子能通过迈克尔·波特（Michael Porter）的课程吗？在哈佛商学院现在。我必须相信他们能。我是说，我不知道，因为我不在那个教室里。我问了那里的朋友。这里有什么不同？彭博社由 20 多岁和 30 多岁的年轻人管理。所以我们是这里的“异常值”。在我看来，经营这些企业最聪明的人就是那些年轻人。但他们非常聪明。他们非常有动力。他们非常有创造力。我从彭博情报部门雇佣了一批人。我……我没事。我……我对这一点很满意。孩子们都很好。孩子们都很好。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Okay. One final question of 20 seconds. How much hate mail have you gotten? Um a good portion of it. I have to say, you know, people, it's like the kill the messenger and you know, it's as if I stood up and said Jenz is unemployable um at me and they did.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 好的。最后一个问题，20 秒。您收到了多少投诉邮件？嗯，相当一部分。我不得不说，你知道，人们就像“杀死信使”，你知道，就好像我站出来说 Z 世代是无法雇佣的……针对我，他们就是这样做的。

Original English sentence(s) from the transcript. Okay, I'll editorialize what you've done is phenomenal. Susie Welch, thank you so much. My essay of the year is Gen Z unemployable. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday 7 to 10:00 a.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iheartradio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

Here's the corresponding, high-quality Chinese translation. 好的，我来评论一下。您的工作非常出色。苏茜·韦尔奇，非常感谢您。我今年的最佳文章是“Z 世代是无法雇佣的”。这是彭博监控播客，可在 Apple、Spotify 以及您获取播客的任何地方收听。工作日东部时间早上 7 点到 10 点，在 Bloomberg.com、iheartradio 应用程序、TuneIn 和彭博商业应用程序上收听直播。您还可以在 YouTube 上观看我们的每日直播，以及随时在彭博终端上收听。