My country is Venezuela and my name is Jan Rodriguez. My name is Juan and I'm in Karakas in the capital. My name is Karolina Hill. I live near the most important military complex here in Venezuela. early January 3rd. It was like uh 1:57 a.m. and I was watching a movie with my sister and everything went completely dark and 5 seconds later we heard the first explosion. I ran to the window to take a look at what was going on. My hands were shaking. I could only see the light of the moon and we could hear the airplanes and we could hear the helicopters but we couldn't see them and the walls of my building and the windows were shaking. I thought now the gringo are here. They are attacking Karakas. Everybody in the city heard the noises. I think we were nervous but at the same time excited because we thought they were overthrowing the government. They were freeing us from the dictatorship. Like my girlfriend and I were crying and screaming. I called my mom. I called my brothers. Like I called all my family. We were waiting for that for years. When Donald Trump put up the picture with Maduro capture, I am so happy in that moment. Oh my god, man. Honestly, I cry for that picture. It's finished that this hell. This felt like a real victory. Like someone in this government that has done so much damage to my country is going to finally face real justice. after this attack we were like okay they did it but what's the meaning of that what will come for us I mean what what's the next step because okay they took mro out but we have we have padrino lopez we have Rodriguez I mean they are still here other people government is free I am confused the future in Venezuela really really And the people don't know what will happen. The people is so scared. It's so scared. From the New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitroof. This is the Daily. On Monday, as Nicholas Maduro and his wife Celia pleaded not guilty in a Manhattan courtroom, the nearly 30 million people of Venezuela struggled to absorb the reality of a post-maduro era. An era in which the United States appears to be the dominant force reshaping their once firmly anti-American government. Today, my colleague Anatoli Kermanay explains why President Trump chose to back a Maduro loyalist to run the country and what Venezuelans think of it all. It's Tuesday, January 6th. Hi, Anatoli. Welcome. It's good to have you here. Thanks for having me, Natalie. So, in the last couple of days, we at the show have talked about how this operation to capture Nicholas Maduro went down. We've talked about the legality of it. What we haven't talked about as much is who is running Venezuela right now and how is all of that going to play out because that feels very uncertain in this moment. You've been in the country as this all has been going on through the mission itself. You're in Karacus right now. So, just to start, how does it feel there? It feels surreal. You know, the city is still coming out of Christmas holidays. It's a metropolis of more than 4 million people and it's full of lights and decorations. And I was driving through the city last night and the city was completely deserted. You know, there was not a single soul on the streets. Uh, no sounds to be made. It felt like I was in a zombie movie. And I think it just sums up this atmosphere of expectation, of fear, of concern. It's just tense. We have not seen mass signs of jubilation at the fall of Nicholas Maduro. At the same time, we had not seen any genuine mass outpourings of grieving for him and his wife. And this atmosphere of quiet tension is taking place amid growing signs of repression, of people being detained, of journalists being harassed, which shows to me that even though this government has a new face, the brutal repressive apparatus that has kept it in power for decades remains in place and is cracking down again. It sounds like everyone in Venezuela is just kind of waiting with baited breath for what's to come. So, let's get into that. And my first question is, is what we're seeing actually regime change? Because now that the dust has settled a little bit, it seems as though the regime is actually still in power in Venezuela. That's right, Natalie. The regime is in place. The people who are no longer here is Maduro and his wife and around 80 people have died between his Cuban bodyguards and Venezuelan civilians, Venezuelan security service members. But beyond that, we are seeing the same cast of characters. Most of his inner circle is intact. It is in power and is led by Deli Rodriguez, known universally as Deli, who was Madura's vice president, who was the first in line to replace him under any circumstances. So the same characters uh ruling the country.

Okay. So Deli Rodriguez, the vice president now in power, is someone that Trump has endorsed. The administration says they're going to be working directly with her. And I want to talk about why. Why her? Because honestly, when you and I have talked about this, the most obvious choice for who was going to work with the Trump administration in the event that Maduro was no longer in power was someone else. It was Maria Karina Machado, this famous opposition leader. So explain for me, Anatoli, why it's not Machado and why it's Deli instead. The short answer is continuity. Trump wanted to stop the flood of drugs from Venezuela. He wanted to stop migrants, but above all, he made it very clear he wanted Venezuelan oil. And Dela Rodriguez has been able to sell herself as a reliable guardian of Venezuela's oil industry as a person who can manage Venezuela resources and protect foreign interests which in this case will be American investor interests. And Machado was not able to sell herself as that figure. She was not and this is perhaps the biggest surprise of this theme. Machado is by far the most popular politician in the country. She has led an election campaign in 2024 that has led more than 70% of Venezuelans to vote for the opposition and she has won the Nobel Peace Prize for her efforts. She has global recognitions and global respect and she comes with impeccable conservative credentials. She's a daughter of a wealthy industrialist. She has an impeccable record of supporting free markets, of supporting personal freedom, supporting Christian faith, all values at the heart of traditional Republican agenda. But she's a product of a different period of American politics. And Machado's gravest mistake was not being able to adapt to the transformation that Trump has brought to the American right.

What do you mean by that exactly? Well, the adjective that defines Machado more than anything else is consistency. She has been extremely consistent in her beliefs. She has been extremely consistent her political agenda. And this consistency is what brought her to the cost of gaining power in Venezuela during the last elections. This is the reasons why she has galvanized Venezuelan populations because people believed in her. They believed in her values. they believed in what she stood for and that she would defend them, that she would not negotiate with Madura, that she would not sell them out. This consistency was at its core. But in the current transactional Washington of today, this has become a liability. she has not been able to adjust to uh a very transactional approach to politics that we see in Washington. A ideologically agnostic approach to Washington where beliefs and policies are are ditched and sacrificed and adjusted on daily basis to suit the the whims of people taking power. And this has gradually led her to lose allies and make a growing number of enemies in the Trump administration, which eventually has contributed to her being sidelined at this crucial moments in Venezuelan history. Okay. Can you go a little deeper there? Like give me examples of how she wasn't able to adjust. So, for example, when Trump returns to power, his initial focus on Venezuela is getting Americans detained there, out of jail, and back into the United States. and he sends his envoy, he sends a man called Richard Grenell, a businessman and former ambassador to Germany to Caracus to negotiate the deal. And then Grenell arrives in Karacas. He reaches out to Machado because she's the representative of Venezuelan opposition. She's seen at the time as representative of American interest. And he starts a dialogue. That's a relationship that very quickly goes off rails because getting Americans out means talking to Madura's government means negotiating. Negotiating is an anthema for Maria Karina Machado. She has argued for decades that freedom is not negotiable, that democracy is not negotiable, that there can be no compromises. And that set the stage for a train wreck between Richard Grenell and Maria Karina Machado. a clash that has repeated itself over and over throughout the Trump administration as she lost national allies and created new enemies. You're saying basically Machado is such a purist that she's totally opposed to any notion of negotiating with Maduro and this alienated Trump's lead negotiator in Venezuela who's there to try to get a deal. He was there to try to get a deal and he's there to get economic deals. to start negotiating a deal with Maduro's officials that would see Maduro hand over Venezuelan resources in return for him staying in power at least for the time being. Again, this goes completely against everything that Machado has stood for. And over time, in the months since the election, as Venezuelan government stepped up repression, Machado's movement became increasingly marginalized in Venezuelan political life. They increasingly had to flee in exile. Machado herself had to go into hiding. They have gradually lost touch with what is happening on the streets in Venezuela and their uncompromising position meant they had very few contacts inside Venezuelan government. So then the Trump administration they have gradually come to realize that the strategies that Machado and her aids were providing to Washington were outdated were were not accurate and the intelligence or you know the assumptions being made by the opposition have proved wrong time and again and this has angered officials in the Trump administration that were trying to work out a credible plan of getting Maduro out of power. So it sounds like they start to sour on her in part because they don't believe she's giving valuable intel. And that's despite the fact that as we know in recent months, Machado was really doing everything she could to kind of ingratiate herself with the Trump administration as they began to dial up the pressure on Maduro. She even dedicated her Nobel Peace Prize to Trump. I guess all that wasn't enough. All that wasn't enough. And to me, there's a certain tragic element to this because this is a politician with impeccable moral credentials. Machado has built her presidential campaign on the focus on Venezuelan migrants, of reuniting Venezuelan families, of returning the millions of Venezuelans that have fled the country from Maduro, bringing them back home. And since Trump took power, she has stopped talking about Venezuelan migrants cuz these are the people that Trump was arresting. Trump was deporting, Trump was jailing in in foreign jails where we were tortured. And Machado stayed silent as flights into the country were gradually cancelled under American pressure. She stayed silent. As inflation rose under tightening American sanctions, complicating people's daily life, she has stayed silent. And this has caused a political capital inside the country. She has sacrificed a lot of political goodwill that she has built inside Venezuela to please this one man. She has gone out of her way to praise him. She has published opads saying that Trump is the greatest defender of freedom in the western hemisphere. It was very clear to everyone observing Venezuela that Machado is speaking to the audience of one and her entire strategy has been on bringing Trump to her side and so far she has failed. You know, Trump said in this big press conference he gave over the weekend that Machado just didn't have the support in Venezuela. So, was that actually true based on what you just said? credible polling in Venezuela is very limited, but the evidence we have shows that her popular support has been gradually very slowly sipping away from a very high point. Crucially for Trump, when he says that she doesn't have a respect, he is talking about respect of the people that would make it possible for her to govern. And Machado's inflexibility and focus on pressure rather than negotiation has meant that she has lost the support of the Solo's economic elites that have traditionally supported the opposition and she has not been able to gain the support of the armed forces that she herself has constantly said are crucial to removing Maduro. She has again to please Trump she has gone out of her way to mimic his talking point that Venezuelan government is a narco cortel. She has mimicked his language that Maduro is flooding United States with drugs and criminals. And this has meant that for the officers watching her speeches, for the members of the governments, for the people that actually make the state tick and hold the guns, that she was painting them as members of an Aarco cartel, as part of a problem, as people that need to be eliminated from Venezuela's public life. and the dissonance between her calls for the armed forces and government employees to rise up against Maduro and the way she has branded them as members of an ARO cartel ended up spelling her political downfall inside the Venezuelan political system. So, ironically, in order to align herself with Trump, Machado starts saying these things that actually alienate all these elites within Venezuela that she actually needs to have on board in order to persuade the Trump administration that she's a viable candidate to run the country. Is that right? That's right. That's exactly what happened. These are people that have been in charge for a very long time. And it the Trump administration became convinced that to get the country running quickly to keep it stable, to keep it from collapsing and sending hundreds of thousands of migrants to its borders, to keep the oil flowing to the United States, to boost that flow of oil, they needed to work with people who were already in charge. And that's why we picked DelC over Maria Karina Machado.

Okay, let's talk about Venezuela's new leader, who, as you said, everyone calls Deli. She sounds like an unlikely choice for the Trump administration in many ways to support. explain who she is and what the Trump administration sees in her. First and foremost, they see Deli as a capable economic manager and that reputation that she has earned has come at the end of a very unexpected journey. She is a daughter of a Marxist gerilla who was tortured by the security forces of previous pro-American governments during the cold war. So she comes from a background of impeccable socialist credentials but they also come from money and she enjoyed quite a privileged upbringing. She went to university in France and she joined the government, the current regime under the wings of her older brother going up in the ranks of a chavismo government. And that rise really accelerated around 2019 when Venezuela is facing tremendous economic pressure from United States that had just sanctions its oil industry. The revenues have collapsed. The Maduro government has struggled to just keep the lights on in the country. And Maduro turns to Deli and basically tells her to fix it. And what does she do? Does she fix it? She completely re-engineers Venezuelan economy. She and a group of technocrats allied to her began a process that in a very short period discarded the socialist tropes that the government had based its legitimacy on for many years, price controls, currency controls, focus on the needs of Venezuelan poor, and turned it into a free-for-all market economy where money ruled and investment was the only merit. It's so interesting that the daughter of a Marxist became this trusted steward of something approaching capitalist reform. Well, in many ways, you know, Venezuela is an extremely corrupt country and it is as corrupt today as it was under the nominally socialist principles. But in terms of actual policies, Deli has turned Venezuela into a radically capitalist society. That there's practically no regulation, that there are practically no rules, that money is the only variable that that governs society and and governs the interaction between the states and its citizens. But did it work though? Like did it stabilize the economy, which is what Maduro was originally asking for? It did work and led to a period of moderate growth. Starting in 2021, the inflation subsided. People started to open up businesses. People started to travel more. The oil production began to gradually edge up. And remember, Natalie that this has all started from a very low base. We're not talking about uh Dubai of Latin America, but we're talking about a country that had suffered a tremendous economic collapse where millions have fled where that people have suffered from malnutrition and it gave them a modiccom of economic stability. Okay. So, it sounds like the reforms that Deli helped engineer, they didn't, you know, bring wealth back on mass to Venezuelans, but they did write the economic ship. They helped stanch the bleeding. Did that do anything to help the regime's standing with Venezuelans? I mean, obviously, they still voted for the opposition in the last election. So, I would imagine the answer is no, right? The answer is no. And the elections of 2024 have proven that the government had gone out of its way to sell itself to Venezuelans as we are stability. The opposition is chaos. Stick with us. You can live with us. You can breathe with us. And still more than 70% of Venezuelans including massive proportions of public sector workers and the poor voted for the opposition voted for the candidate of Maria Karina Machado showing just the scale of exhaustion and repulsion that this population has against President Maduro. And what about the elites that we talked about earlier? How do they see Deli in all of this? Delta's reforms gave him space to to grow, gave him space to invest. Again, not talking about massive investments. We're not talking about tremendous growth for talking about a climate where people that have money can start making more money. And Machado's message is overhauling this completely, scrapping this whole system is is starting from scratch. And business wants stability and they turn against Machado's message of radical change. It's really interesting, right? Because Machado in many ways is a more natural ally of theirs too, right? She comes from this family they probably know, this industrialist. She has these impeccable credentials as a free market capitalist. And yet here she's the one with the broad-based popular support who's lost the support of these elites. While Deli doesn't have that popular support, it sounds like, but she has one over this group of business titans that is still incredibly influential in this country. This is a fundamental paradox, Natalie. I could not have summarized it better. Uh, and I think all it just goes to show that economic freedoms do not always correlate with political freedoms. And the reality is that for Trump, what matters to him is the deals and the investment of the elites. And that has led him to gradually ally with Deli, the the self-styled technocrat who could bring him Venezuelan riches over Maria Kurim Machado who was promising political liberation but a very volatile and unstable economic environment.

Okay, so now I think I get why Deli is preferable to Machado in the eyes of Trump. What I still don't understand though is why Deli is preferable to Maduro because you've told us Anatoli the few times that you've come on to talk about this that Maduro was actually happy to let the US into Venezuela's oil fields to give up those natural resources as part of a potential deal with Trump. Why did Trump reject that only to go for what sounds like a very similar deal with Deli? I don't think we have perfect clarity to that question at the moment, Natalie. My hunch is that the campaign against Maduro, the campaign to brand a narot terrorist and a cartel chief who is at war with the United States has gone simply too far for Trump to tolerate him and make a deal with him. Remember that while oil is the driving force of Trump's policy towards Minnesota, it's not the only one, right? And there are advisers within his administration, there are people in in his administration that are pushing towards our goals. Uh there's Steven Miller with his focus on migration and uh illegal drugs. There's Secretary of State Marco Rubio who has been a declared anti-communist warrior. These people have been sworn enemies of Maduro. And as Maduro repeatedly rebuffs Trump administration's attempts to provide him a soft lensing, to provide him a golden parachute, Trump's position hardens and by December his patience finally snaps. Maduro's response to increasingly explicit ultimatums from America was to present himself as a carefree patier. He constantly dances on television. He sings no crazy war. You know, he's he's a good dancer. You know, he he puts up the moves and you know, he does on regular basis and at some point Trump snaps. Wait, are you saying Anatoli that Maduro dancing on national television is an actual factor here in everything that ends up happening? My understanding it was the stroll that broke the camel's back. Meaning what exactly? That Trump saw Maduro dancing and said, "This guy's not taking me seriously." Or what? meaning that Trump saw the ongoing dancing as a humiliation as Maduro calling Trump's bluff as Maduro telling Trump I'm here and I'm here for as long as I want to be and Trump could not tolerate what he saw as a personal affront. Wow. We are truly living in wild times. Remember I mean Natalie, history is often made by seemingly sort of small banal circumstances, right? It's a accumulation of major factors, major forces like oil, migration, drugs. But you know, it can be something as sort of small as a little techno dance on a public stage that can tilt the scares towards a momentous policy decision that will change the history of Western Hemisphere perhaps forever. Okay, we'll have plenty of time to talk about that future, but for now, the Trump administration is counting on Deli. And this is someone who in the last few days has come out very strongly against them. It's worth saying. She said Maduro is the only president of Venezuela. She refers to herself as the vice president. And I'm wondering what we should make of that. I know that there are a lot of people from the regime that are still in power in the country and I wonder if this is her playing to them to that domestic audience. She has to appease them. Right. That's right. Remember that the attack was a major humiliation to the armed forces and security officials that form the core of Maduro's regime. It was an operation that cost the life of 80 people uh causing major destructions in capital Karacas. Deli could not just sort of wave this off and open her arms to Americans. You know, she has to satisfy the domestic audience. She has to show to the ruling parties faithful who are not numerous in numbers but who hold a lot of guns that she's not an American porn that she's someone who will defend the country's sovereignty someone who will defend the the country's standing while at the same time she has to satisfy American demands. You know the Trump administration and his officials have repeatedly stated that Deli must do their bidding or else she will face the same fate as Maduro. So she's trying to play for both audiences and as you said she started off making very sort of aggressive remarks towards America but just in a matter of days in a matter of hours her position has softened. She has issued a statement calling for corporations with the United States for peaceful coexistence for working together for joint business ventures and just let it sink for you Natalie. This is a statement towards the government that has just blown up your capital and killed 80 people living in the capital and you are basically opening your arms to their investments and to bilateral relations. No, it's totally remarkable and it makes me want to ask you about what this means for the Chavista movement that has been in power now for almost three decades in Venezuela. This is a movement that has staked its legacy on being an anti-American bull work. What happens to that legacy if Deli follows through and really does become a willing partner of the Trump administration? To me, Natalie, the events of the past few days exposed the hollowess of the nationalist rhetoric behind the Chavisma movement. At the time when the country came under the attack, no one was prepared to defend President Maduro. There was no notable resistance from Yam forces. And to me, this peels another layer of mysticism and ideology from the movements that over the years, over the decades, this movement has gradually lost the the pillars of its ideology. First it lost the populist support, then it lost the socialist credentials. Now it loses nationalism. And what is laugh Natalie? Survival. Survival is the core aspects of chisbo movements. And the senior officials who have been at Maduro's side for years and have now closing ranks behind LC are focused on survival at any cost. And at I want to end by just asking how the Venezuelans you're talking to are perceiving all of this, how they're feeling right now. I have to imagine that the many people who voted against Maduro are happy that he's gone on the one hand and yet the regime that he led is still very much there. And not only that, now there's also this added element of Trump having a potentially very heavy hand in their country. So how is that playing with people? This is a country that has gotten used to disappointments, that has gotten used to tragedy. In the years that I have lived here, I have experienced time and again a moment of extreme exaltation when it appeared that freedom and democracy were just within grasp. You know, I have witnessed millions of people come out on the streets in popular protest against the government. And every time that hope, that democracy, that freedom was snatched from under their nose. This is a country that has been burned many times and where people have learned to temper their expectations. And I think most people in Venezuela when they watched ElC being sworn in as the country's interim president, this is not the outcome they would have hoped for. This is not the outcome they would have chosen. This is an outcome that is not just, but is not fair, but is an outcome that just might make their difficult life just a little bit easier. Well, Anatoli, I hope you get some rest in the coming days and thank you so much. Thanks for having me. On Monday, in her first interview since the capture of Maduro, Maria Karina Machado told Fox's Shan Hannity that she hadn't spoken with President Trump since the US deposed the Venezuelan leader. But I do want to say today on behalf of the Venezuelan people how grateful we are for his courage. She also thanked Trump for the quote courageous actions that led to Maduro's removal. It's a milestone and it's not only huge for the Venezuelan people on our future. I think it's a huge step for humanity, for freedom and human dignity. We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. On Monday, Defense Secretary Pete Hgsith said the military had begun administrative actions against Mark Kelly, the Democratic senator from Arizona, a move that could end up reducing Kelly's rank and the military pension he receives as a retired Navy captain. The review stems from a video that Kelly and five other Democratic lawmakers released in November that reminded service members they were obligated to refuse illegal orders. Hexath called the video sedicious and called Kelly reckless for trying to undermine discipline in the ranks. Kelly and his lawyers have argued the senator was simply articulating a fundamental principle of military law. They've also pointed out that Hegathth himself has made similar comments in the past. Today's episode was produced by Olivia Nat, Rob Zipco, Relle Bonja, and Claire Tennis with help from Carlos Prito. It was edited by Paige Cowat and Liz O Balin. Contains music by Marian Lozano, Pat McCusker, and Rowan Neist. and was engineered by Chris Wood. Special thanks to Isayen Herrera, Annie Coral, Maria Victoria Fermine, and Adriana Fernandez. That's it for the Daily. I'm Natalie Kitroth. See you tomorrow.