介绍 Chris Rufo 及其影响力
Ezra Klein: 你完全有理由说 Chris Rufo 是这个时代——至少在右翼中——最成功的活动家。他最初声名鹊起,是作为右翼反击多元、平等与包容(DEI)倡议的核心战略家。他在很大程度上推动了对批判性种族理论(CRT)的妖魔化。
Original English
Ezra Klein: You could really make a case that Chris Rufo is the most successful activist certainly on the right of this era. He initially rose in prominence as the central strategist in the rights counterattack on DEI initiatives. He's very much behind a lot of the demonization of critical race theory.
Chris Rufo: 批判性种族理论实质上已经成为联邦官僚机构的默认意识形态,而且现在正被武器化来对付美国人民。
Original English
Chris Rufo: Critical race theory has become in essence the default ideology of the federal bureaucracy and is now being weaponized against the American people.
Ezra Klein: 他声称 CRT 实际上是一个革命性的计划,将推翻《独立宣言》的原则并摧毁宪法现存的结构……
Original English
Ezra Klein: He claims CRT is actually a revolutionary program that would overturn the principles of the declaration and destroy the remaining structure of the constitution
Ezra Klein: ……并且他把这些建立成了一系列的运动。他们实际上已经改变了政策。这在 Ron DeSantis 的州长任期内非常有影响力,并且在某种程度上把 Claudine Gay 赶出了哈佛。
Original English
Ezra Klein: and he built that into a series of campaigns. They've actually changed policy. It's very influential in Ronda Santis' governorhip and kind of running Claudine Gay out of Harvard.
Chris Rufo: 把 Claudine Gay 赶下台,推翻哈佛大学的校长,对像我这样的记者来说是一次巨大的胜利。
Original English
Chris Rufo: Pushing out Claudine Gay, toppling the president of Harvard for a journalist like me is a big win.
Ezra Klein: 然后在唐纳德·特朗普的第二个任期内,Rufo 的工作带来了很多成果。无论是好是坏(从我的角度来看是坏的),从特朗普早期的大量行政命令,
Original English
Ezra Klein: Then in Donald Trump's second term, quite a lot has come out of Rufo's work. For better and from my perspective, for worse, from a lot of Trump's early executive orders,
Chris Rufo: 我们已经在整个联邦政府,甚至在私营部门和我们的军队中,终结了所谓的多样性、公平和包容政策的暴政。
Original English
Chris Rufo: we've ended the tyranny of so-called diversity, equity, and inclusion policies all across the entire federal government and indeed the private sector and our military
Ezra Klein: 到他导致移民海关执法局(ICE)和海关与边境保护局(CBP)被部署到明尼苏达州的一些工作。
Original English
Ezra Klein: to some of the work that led to the ICE and CBP deployments to Minnesota.
Chris Rufo: 本周,我发表了一篇独家报道,揭露了明尼苏达州明尼阿波利斯市的索马里欺诈团伙,他们正在从美国纳税人那里窃取数十亿美元。
Original English
Chris Rufo: This week, I published an exclusive story exposing the Somali fraud rings in Minneapolis, Minnesota, which are stealing billions of dollars from American taxpayers.
Ezra Klein: 无论你还想对他作何评价,Rufo 已经相当深刻地影响了我们所生活的世界。如果你听他说话,你会发现他还是一位非常非常聪明,并且对其所在阵营往往能进行相当诚实分析的分析师。我欣赏 Rufo 的一点是,他总是清晰且公开地说出他正在做的事情。他似乎感到不安。Tucker Carlson 的夜间独白为整个右翼设定议程的日子已经一去不复返了。你能感觉到一种不安,一种认为也许右翼——当前的这个右翼——并没有变成他所希望的样子。现在我们发现自己身处一场不断升级的影响者之间的战争中,他们交易着阴谋论和反阴谋论,导致其注意力和信息领域受到了污染。将右翼推向各种不同的兔子洞和死胡同,使得本届政府没有完成他希望、打算并试图帮助其完成的那么多工作。
所以我邀请 Rufo 来做客,并不是因为我们在很多事情上意见一致。显然我们不一致。你也会听到这一点。也不是因为我试图说服他接受我看待事物的方式。我不会这么做。而是既为了理解他是如何理解自己正在做的事情的,也是为了去质问它。去探讨他所使用的策略是否真的有效,或者他是否在以帮助播下深远的长期问题为代价,来获取短期的胜利。
Rufo 是曼哈顿研究所(Manhattan Institute)的高级研究员兼批判性种族理论倡议的主任。他是《城市杂志》(City Journal)的特约编辑。他是播客《Rufo and Lomez》的联合主持人。他也是《美国的文化革命:激进左翼是如何征服一切的》(America's Cultural Revolution: How the Radical Left Conquered Everything)一书的作者。一如既往,我的邮箱是 Ezra Kleinshow@nytimes.com。Chris Rufo,欢迎来到本节目。
Original English
Ezra Klein: Whatever else you want to say about him, Rufo has quite significantly affected the world we live in. He's also, if you listen to him, and he's a very, very smart and often quite honest analyst of his own side. One thing I appreciate about Rufo is he always says what he is doing clearly and in public. He seems uneasy. Gone are the days when Tucker Carlson's nightly monologue set the agenda for the entire right. You can feel a sort of disqu, a sense that maybe the right, this right, is not becoming what he hoped it would be. Now we find ourselves in an escalating war of influencers trading conspiracies and counterconspiracies that its attentional andformational sphere is polluted. Driving the right into all different kinds of rabbit holes and dead ends that the administration is not getting as much done as he had hoped intended tried to help it do. And so I wanted to have Rufo on not because we agree on things. We obviously don't. You'll hear that. Not because I'm trying to talk him into my way of seeing things. I'm not going to do that. But both to understand how he understands what he is doing and also to interrogate it. To ask if the tactics he is using are actually working or if he's scoring short-term victories at the cost of helping to seed profound long-term problems. Rufo is a senior fellow and director of the initiative on critical race theory at the Manhattan Institute. He's a contributing editor of City Journal. He is the co-host of the podcast Rufo and Lomez. And he's the author of America's Cultural Revolution: How the Radical Left Conquered Everything. As always, my email, Ezra Kleinshow Times.com. Chris Rufo, welcome to the show.
Chris Rufo: 很高兴和你在一起。
Original English
Chris Rufo: Good to be with you.
机构的中立性与价值观
Ezra Klein: 所以,我想从你 2024 年初写的一篇文章开始,标题是《新右翼激进主义,反革命宣言》(The New Right Activism, a manifesto for the counterrevolution)。那里面有很多有趣的东西,但我想开始探讨的一点是,你写道“没有哪个机构可以是中立的”。那么,告诉我为什么。
Original English
Ezra Klein: So, I want to begin with a piece you wrote in early 2024 titled The New Right Activism, a manifesto for the counterrevolution. And there are a lot of interesting things in there, but the one I wanted to begin with is you write no institution can be neutral. So, tell me why.
Chris Rufo: 是的,我的意思是,如果你思考超过一分钟,这就是一个显而易见的现实。而且我认为把它说出来很重要,因为在美国我们有一种神话——这是一种小写的自由主义神话——认为机构可以成为某种中立的仲裁者,它们可以是没有价值观的容器,用来实现某种务实的或工具性的目的。而我的观点是,不,在实践中,机构总是有价值观的,无论它们是隐性的还是显性的。对于我们这些被排除在许多强大机构之外的人来说,仅仅是揭示潜在的现实就有很大的价值。事实上,政治斗争的核心就是争夺谁来决定价值观,什么价值观被根植于一个机构之中。并因此决定会做出什么样的决策。
Original English
Chris Rufo: Yeah, I mean that that's a an obvious reality if you think about it for longer than a minute. And I think it it's important to say because there's this mythology that we have in the United States and it's a small Liberal mythology that institutions can be kind of neutral orbiters that they could be uh valueless vessels um that achieve some kind of pragmatic or instrumental ends. And my point is that no in practice institutions always have values whether they're implicit uh or explicit. Uh and for those of us who are on the outside of many powerful institutions, it's there's a lot of value in simply revealing the underlying reality. And in fact, political fights are at heart the fight for who determines the values, what values are are are installed in an institution. Um and then therefore what kind of decisions get made.
Ezra Klein: 所以,我接受很多关于机构的争论,特别是在广泛的自由主义哲学传统中,他们主张机构可以有中立的对待方式。它们可以有中立的规则,以及这些机构中很多(无论好坏的)程序。从“通知和评论期”到它们必须创造透明度的各种不同方式,都是为了试图创造那种让人们受到中立对待的能力。你认为那可能吗?
Original English
Ezra Klein: So I take a lot of the arguments about institutions particularly within like the broad philosophical tradition of liberalism argue that they can have neutral treatment. They can have neutral rules and a lot of for better and worse procedure in these institutions. Everything from notice and comment periods to different ways that they have to create transparency are about trying to create that capacity for people to be neutrally treated. Do you think that's possible?
Chris Rufo: 不可能。我认为“中立”这个词用错了。我认为我们正在寻找的是“公正”。而我会同意那一点。每个人都应该作为法律下的个体被平等对待,但那是公正,而不是中立。因此,在一个刑事案件中,如果你判处某人死刑,你并没有在“中立”地对待他们。你实际上夺走了他们的生命,因为作为基础的法律本身就是一种道德准则。所以我认为中立和公正是相似的,但在这种情况下有着关键的区别。
Original English
Chris Rufo: No. I I think neutral is the wrong word. I think what we're looking for is impartial. And I would agree with that. Everyone should be treated equally as an individual under law, but that's impartiality, not neutrality. So in a criminal case, um if you sentence somebody to the death penalty, you're not treating them neutrally. You're actually taking their life because the underlying law is a kind of moral code. Uh and so I I think neutral and impartial are similar but in this case uh kind of critically different.
情感、事实与政治的本质
Ezra Klein: 因此,你在那篇文章中提出的另一个论点是,你说“事实不在乎你的感受”这句流行的口号也暴露出类似的问题。这句口号是 Ben Shapiro 的名言。而在现实中,情感几乎总是战胜事实。理性是激情的奴隶。
Original English
Ezra Klein: So another argument you make in that piece is you say the popular slogan that facts don't care about your feelings betrays similar problems. slogan being Ben Shapiro's slogan. In reality, feelings almost always overpower facts. Reason is a slave of the passions.
Chris Rufo: 是的,这是真的。我们要声明一下,我们喜欢 Ben Shapiro。当然,我们是 Ben Shapiro 的粉丝。但我认为他在这一点上大错特错了。我认为保守派抓住这一点犯了一个根本性的错误。实际上,这只是为失败找的一种借口。就像是说,是的,我们可能在由情感或激情驱动的重大政治问题上输了,但你知道,我们有事实在手,如果人们能读读我们的白皮书,看看我们那种回归分析,听听我们严谨的逻辑论证,那么我们就会被证明是正确的。
但是听着,虽然我们应该有事实的支持,虽然我们应该使用逻辑,但单靠它是不够的。事实上,政治在一个更深层次的层面上运作,一个情感的层面。政治发生在情感和公众舆论的领域,而不是顶层那种抽象的论证领域。
Original English
Chris Rufo: Yeah, that that's true. And uh we we'll caveat. We love Ben Shapiro. We're we're Ben Shapiro fans, of course. Um but I think that that he's he's very wrong on that. And I think conservatives have made a fundamental error in latching on to that. And really what it is, it's it's a rationalization for uh losing. It's like uh yes we may have lost the great political question which operates on emotions or passions um but you know we have the facts on our side and if only people would read our you know white paper our kind of regression analysis our rigorous logical argumentation uh then we would be we would be vindicated. Um but look while we should have the facts on our side while we should use logic by itself it's insufficient and in fact politics operates on a deeper level an emotional level and politics occurs on the on the field of sentiment and public opinion much more on the field of you know uh kind of abstract argumentation at the top.
重新定义“煽动宣传”(Agitprop)
Ezra Klein: 然后你接着在同一篇文章中为 agitprop(煽动宣传)进行辩护。Agitprop 是前苏联的一个老词,代表鼓动(agitation)和宣传(propaganda)。
Original English
Ezra Klein: So and then you go on in the same piece to make an argument for agitprop. So aprop old Soviet Union term for agitation and propaganda.
Chris Rufo: 是的。这两个词揉在了一起。
Original English
Chris Rufo: Yeah. Mashed up together.
Ezra Klein: 而且这个词的名声并不太好。Agitprop 通常不是一个褒义词。但你说,agitprop 并不意味着牺牲真相,而是将真相导向胜利。那么你是如何定义 agitprop 是什么呢?而且你试图向你的保守派同胞解释如何使用它?
Original English
Ezra Klein: And it doesn't have a great reputation. Agyprop is usually not a term of endearment. But you say agyprop doesn't mean sacrificing the truth, but rather channeling the truth toward victory. So how do you define what agit prop is? And and what are you trying to explain to your fellow conservatives about how to use it?
Chris Rufo: 那么,对,我的意思是,如果你,很显然,如果你是代表谎言、邪恶或不正义的事业进行宣传,那是糟糕的。我的观点是,这并非必然如此。如果你追求的事业是美好、真实且美丽的。如果你看看 propaganda(宣传)这个词,它最初的意思来自天主教会。它是指传播福音,传播真理。所以这些是我们能够重新拾起的概念,因为现实情况是,在印刷机时代及以后的所有政治都依赖于宣传。
那你如何定义宣传本身呢?宣传仅仅是……是……向大众传播政治叙事的方法。我们再次使用中立(neutral)——我要说是一个真实的叙事——通过现代媒体的手段。它是一种旨在说服大多数人的修辞论证,以拼凑出大多数的公众舆论。
而且你看,这再次,特别是对保守派来说,并不是什么新鲜事。你知道,这个国家的开国元勋们就此互相通信。他们公开讨论过这件事。我们似乎已经忘记了关于政治究竟是如何运作的其中一些教训。你必须说服人们。什么是说服?就是修辞。什么是工业规模的修辞?那就是宣传。
Original English
Chris Rufo: So, right, I mean, if you're obviously if you're conducting say propaganda on behalf of a falsehood or evil or an unjust cause, it's bad. My point is that that's not always necessarily true. If you are pursuing a cause that is good and true and beautiful. If you look at the word propaganda, um the original meaning it comes from the Catholic Church. Uh and it was the propagation of the the gospels, the propagation of the the truth. And so these are concepts that we can recover because the reality is that all politics and the age of the printing press and onward depends on propaganda. And how do you define what propaganda itself is? Propaganda is is is simply the the method of uh communicating a political narrative. Again, we're using neutral, I'm going to say a true narrative um uh to a mass audience through the means of modern media. It's a rhetorical argument intended to persuade the majority of people to cobble together a majority of public opinion. And look, this is again for conservatives especially not new. Uh you know the the founding fathers of this country wrote to each other about this. They wrote in public about this. Um we seem to have forgotten some of these lessons uh of how politics actually works. You have to persuade people. What is persuasion? It's rhetoric. What is rhetoric at an industrial scale? It's propaganda.
Ezra Klein: 你把关于宣传的问题联系到了是否……
Original English
Ezra Klein: You've been connecting the question of propaganda to whether
关于为了正确目的而撒谎
Speaker A: ……或者它所针对的目的本身是否真实。当不真实的政治宣传激发出强烈的狂热——这本身是件坏事——你会怎么看待这种情况?
Original English
**Speaker A**: or not the end it is aimed at is true. How do you think about when you have untrue propaganda unleashing intense passions that's badSpeaker B: 如果它是为了一个真实的目的?
Original English
**Speaker B**: >> towards a true aim?Speaker A: 是的。听着,我、我不认为那是件好事。我、我认为,呃,亚里士多德在他的《修辞学》一书里有句很好的话,他说,真理有一种获胜的倾向。我很喜欢这句话。我喜欢它是因为这就像……
Original English
**Speaker A**: >> Yeah. Look, I I don't think that that's good. I I think that um Aristotle has a great line in his book on rhetoric where he says the truth has a tendency to prevail. I love that. I love that because it's likeSpeaker B: 真理并不总是获胜。我们可以回顾历史,我们可以看看历史上的……你知道的。
Original English
**Speaker B**: >> the truth doesn't always prevail. We can look through history. We can look at history uh you knowSpeaker A: 有时候谎言会获胜。
Original English
**Speaker A**: >> and sometimes lies prevail.Speaker B: 呃,我认为在2020年到2024年的“觉醒”(woke)时代,许多谎言确实获胜了。但这句话之所以如此有趣,在于“真理有一种获胜的倾向”。我从中得出的是,因此你永远希望站在真理这一边。即便是为了你自己的实用主义政治目的,你也永远希望站在真理的一边。所以,你看,左翼和右翼肯定都有不真实的元素……或叙事。我、我、我认为,一个政治运动要取得成功,必须要有纪律和正直……去、去追求它……但也要始终记住,如果真理有一种获胜的倾向,那就是你应该站的位置。然后,你的文章引出了这样一个观点,即:为了实现政治的最终承诺,还必须有更高的东西,一个tilos(古希腊语),意思是类似最终目的的东西。
Original English
**Speaker B**: >> Uh I think in 2020 uh to 2024 during the woke era many lies prevailed. But what is so interesting about that line is the truth has a tendency to prevail. What I take from it is that therefore you always want to be on the side of the truth. Even for your own pragmatic political ends you always want to be on the side of the truth. And so look, certainly there are untrue elements uh or narratives on the right and on the left. I I I think a political movement to succeed has to have the discipline and integrity um to to go after it um but always to remember that if the truth has a tendency to prevail, that's where you want to be. And then your piece builds to this idea that quote in order to realize the ultimate promise of the political, there also must be something higher, a tilos, which is the Greek word for something like an ultimate end,Speaker A: 一个最终因。
Original English
**Speaker A**: >> a final cause.Speaker B: 一个最终从句(clause)。
Original English
**Speaker B**: >> A final clause.政治工作的最终目的
Speaker A: 所以,我之所以一直关注这篇文章,是为了理解你工作的方式,以及你的工作到底是什么。那么你的“tilos”(最终目的)是什么?
Original English
**Speaker A**: >> So one reason I've been focusing on this piece is to understand the way you do your work and what your work is. So what is your tilos?Speaker B: 好吧,在政治意义上来说,比方说,我们就把它限定在政治层面上。
Original English
**Speaker B**: >> Well, politically speaking, let's say, let's leave it at that.Speaker A: 对。我指的不是你的家庭和……
Original English
**Speaker A**: >> Yeah. I don't mean your family andSpeaker B: 对。对。我的意思是,我、我认为我想实现我们共和国原则的复兴。因此,如果你在思考我们的共和国,你就会思考那些在过去250年中偏离了的指导原则。呃……我想实现那种复兴。所以,我、我经常回头审视建国时期,试图更好地理解它,并理解如何将这些原则带到现在。因此,你希望拥有自由和平等的原则。你希望拥有一个……一个运转良好、健康的共和国。呃,你还希望拥有一种根据美德来组织的文化。嗯,特别是,你知道,我们西方盎格鲁-美利坚文明的美德。通过我在世界各地的个人观察以及对过去的研究,我认为盎格鲁-美利坚文明,以及在过去250年中赋予我们共和国生命力的原则,依然是……呃,我们能期望的最好的东西。所以从那个角度来看,我们现在处于唐纳德·特朗普第二个任期的第17个月。是不是就是这一切……
Original English
**Speaker B**: >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I I think I want to have a restoration of the principles of our republic. And so, if you're thinking about our republic, you're thinking about those guiding principles where they have strayed over the last 250 years. Um, uh, I want to have a restoration of that. And so, I I'm constantly looking backward at the founding and trying to understand it better and understand how to bring those principles forward. And so, you want to have the principles of liberty and equality. You want to have a a functioning healthy republic. Uh and you want to have a culture that is organized according to virtue. Um and in particular, you know, the virtues of our western Anglo-American civilization. And through my personal observations around the world as well as my study of the past, I think the Anglo-American civilization, the principles that have animated our republic for the last 250 years are still uh the best that we could hope for. So from that perspective, we're 17 months into Donald Trump's second term. Is is that allSpeaker A: 感觉时间更长。
Original English
**Speaker A**: >> it feels like longer.Speaker B: 可不是嘛。
Original English
**Speaker B**: >> Tell me about it.Speaker A: 对你们来说感觉时间可能更长。
Original English
**Speaker A**: >> It feels like longer for you guys probably.Speaker B: 这届政府正在建设你想要看到的那种国家吗?
Original English
**Speaker B**: >> Is this administration building the kind of country you want to see?Speaker A: 是的,我想是的。我来告诉你我会怎么……我来告诉你,我会如何根据第二条(宪法第二条)中的要素来评估它。所以,在行政权力方面,我认为唐纳德·特朗普已经做了他能做的一切。政府里那些优秀的人已经做了他们能做的一切……呃,来推进这种对国家的愿景。嗯,而且……
Original English
**Speaker A**: >> Yeah, I think so. And here's how I would here's how I would assess it on the elements within article 2. So the executive power I think Donald Trump has done almost everything he could do. great people with the administration have done almost everything they could do uh to advance this kind of vision of the country. Um andSpeaker B: 自由,平等,美德。
Original English
**Speaker B**: >> liberty, equality, virtue.Speaker A: 是的。而且,呃,而且我认为第一年势头很强劲。我认为在第二年势头减弱了。而且你知道,这会不会是因为行政部门失去了一些活力?是的。呃,会不会是因为,你知道,公众舆论已经……已经、已经软化了?是的。有没有可能是因为一些海外冒险,或者说是灾难性冒险(取决于你跟谁交谈),分散了注意力?我认为是的。但归根结底,问题在于总统在国会中拥有多数席位,但在参议院中却没有60票。因此,我想要看到的那种根本性的、变革性的立法是不可能的。
Original English
**Speaker A**: >> Yes. And uh and I think that the momentum was strong year one. I think it's trailed off in year two. And you know, could that be the executive has lost some of its energy? Yes. Uh could it be that you know, public opinion has has has has softened? Yes. Could it be some of the foreign adventures or misadventures depending on who you talk to have distracted focus? I think yes. But ultimately the problem is that the president has a majority in Congress but not 60 votes in the Senate. And so fundamental transformative legislation that I would like to see is impossible.特朗普与美德的回归
Speaker B: 请向我论证,唐纳德·特朗普正在恢复美德。这可是个很难的论点,因为你接下来会说,特朗普在他的私人生活里并没有展现出那种基督教美德,对吧?呃,我……
Original English
**Speaker B**: >> Make the case to me that Donald Trump is restoring virtue. This is a hard case because what you're going to say is that Trump does not exhibit the kind of Christian virtues in his personal life, right? Uh ISpeaker A: 我甚至都没有考虑他的私人生活。我考虑的是他的公众生活。
Original English
**Speaker A**: >> I'm not even thinking about his personal life. I'm thinking about his public life.Speaker B: 好吧。那,你、你、你来告诉我。呃,呃……
Original English
**Speaker B**: >> Okay. Well, you you you tell me. Uh uhSpeaker A: 我、我并没有宣称他展现了美德。所以你……你说……你说他们在恢复,呃,自由、平等和美德方面做得相当不错。
Original English
**Speaker A**: >> I I didn't claim he exhibits virtue. So you you said you said that they are doing a pretty good job bringing back uh liberty, equality, and virtue.Speaker B: 没错。
Original English
**Speaker B**: >> Correct.Speaker A: 请向我论证。
Original English
**Speaker A**: >> Make the case to me.Speaker B: 当然。我会向你论证,而且我、我会、我会通过一个我最熟悉的具体例子来论证。所以,在过去的几年里,我参与的重大运动之一就是致力于废除DEI(多元、平等和包容)。所以,DEI这个理念,它已经在……在……在90年代、2000年代萌芽,但在2020年之后,随着大多数大型机构普遍采用,它真正爆发进入了公众生活。它的理念非常简单,嗯……即:由于我们国家的历史现实,美国存在压迫者群体和被压迫者群体。因此,为了实现……呃……为了走向平等的结果,你必须根据个人的群体身份,不平等地对待他们。而总统在上任第一天,呃,就发布了一项行政命令,这与我们一直在做的工作非常一致,嗯……去消除、去根除整个联邦政府中的DEI官僚机构。因此在这种情况下,我认为你可以辩称,就像我们之前讨论的那样,平等和公正的原则……嗯……已经得到了恢复。没、没完全恢复。我们在底层的成文法上仍然面临一些问题。呃,就在最近的……在过去的几周里,司法部对所谓的“差别影响”(disparate impact)原则进行了严厉打击。一样的理念:如果存在不平等的结果,那根据定义就一定是歧视造成的。因此,你必须通过不平等地对待人们来补救它。所以在这个案例中,我认为,你知道,由于这是我一直致力于并且……呃……并且充满热情的议题,我认为你可以论证,自由、平等、美德……呃……已经被恢复了。还有其他问题吗?当然有。我们已经完全达成目标了吗?没有。嗯,但在我个人关心、我个人一直致力的议题上,呃,我认为这个国家处于一个比两年前好得多的境地。
Original English
**Speaker B**: >> Sure. I'll make you the case and I'll I'll I'll make it through the the particular example that I'm most familiar with. So, one of my big campaigns the last couple years was the fight to abolish DEI. And so, DEI was this idea that had been kind of germinating in the in the in in the '9s, in the 2000s, but really exploded into public life with universal adoption by most large institutions after 2020. And it was this idea that was very simple um that there are oppressor groups and oppressed groups in the United States because of the historical realities of our country. And therefore to achieve uh to to move towards equal outcomes, you have to treat individuals uh unequally according to their group identity. And the president on day one uh issued an executive order that was very much in line with the work that we have been doing um to to go and kind of wipe out the DEI bureaucracy throughout the federal government. And so in that case, I think that you could argue that the principle of equality and impartiality as we were discussing earlier um had been restored. Not not totally. We still have some problems with the underlying statutory law. Uh just recently in the in the last couple of weeks, the Department of Justice has taken a buzzsaw to so-called disperate impact doctrine. Same idea. If there are unequal outcomes, it must therefore by definition be because of discrimination. Therefore, you have to remedy it by treating people unequally. And so in this case, I think, you know, and because this is the issue I've worked on and uh and have been passionate about, I think that you can make an argument that liberty, equality, virtue uh have been restored. Are there other problems? Of course. Are we all the way there? No. Um, but on the issues that I personally care about, that I personally have worked on, uh, I think the country is in a much better place than it was, uh, two years ago.关于特朗普政府的腐败与商业利益
Speaker A: 我想,当我想起唐纳德·特朗普和美德时,我想到的一件事是腐败。所以,我看到特朗普乘坐了来自卡塔尔的……呃,豪华飞机。我看到他的家族卷入了各种各样的加密货币计划,在这些加密货币计划中,许多投资者似乎是那些对这个家族有业务诉求、对这个国家有业务诉求的人。呃,《纽约客》杂志好像做了一个,我认为是非常保守的估算,计算了特朗普家族和特朗普本人赚了多少钱,或者他们的净资产增加了多少——而这些增加是与总统职位相关的。这个数字在这个任期内大约是40亿美元。当我看着这些的时候,它看起来并不怎么符合美德。
Original English
**Speaker A**: >> I guess one thing I think about when I think about Donald Trump and virtue is corruption. So I see Trump taking uh, luxury aircraft from cutter. I see his family getting involved in all kinds of crypto schemes where the investors in their crypto schemes in many cases seem to be people who have business before the family, business before the country. Uh the New Yorker sort of did a I think a quite conservative tallying up of how much money the Trump family and Trump have made or how much their net worth has increased that has been connected to the presidency. The number was about $4 billion in this term. It doesn't when I look at it look virtuous.Speaker B: 是的。听着,嗯,这、这是我的总体观点,而且、而且我会尽可能诚实地向你阐述。嗯……有些议题是我正在致力于的,我对此充满热情,我觉得我对这些有一定控制力或影响力,但也有些议题我无法掌控。我认为,在那些我认为政府做得很差的领域,我已经非常直言不讳了。而且当然,这种观感——随着时间推移,我们拭目以待,我确信会有……呃……你知道的,针对这些商业企业的质询、调查等等——这种观感是糟糕的。你无法让我去为它辩护。我非常乐意去指出……呃……那些我认为政府偏离或犯错的地方。嗯,而这就是其中之一。我是说,我记得那个……那个加密货币的首发。那大概是在过渡期期间,我想他们推出了特朗普币(Trumpcoin),对吧?我就觉得,我不喜欢这样。我不想看到这种事。他们不应该那么做。嗯,是的,你无法让我去为它辩护。
Original English
**Speaker B**: >> Yeah. Look, um here's here's my general perspective and and I'll lay it out to you as honestly as I can. Um there are the issues that I work on that I'm passionate about that I feel like I have some control over or influence over and there are the issues that I don't. And I think I've been very straightforward in the areas where I think the administration has fallen short. And certainly the perception and we'll see over time I'm sure that there will be uh you know inquiries, investigations, etc. into these business enterprises um is bad. You're not going to get me to defend it. I'm perfectly happy calling out uh the administration where I think it's strayed or aired. Um and this is one of those places. I mean I remember the the crypto launch. It was during the transition I think where they launched the Trumpcoin, right? And it's like, I don't like this. I don't want to see this. They shouldn't be doing that. Um, and yeah, you're not going to get me to defend it.右翼媒体的现状
Speaker A: 好吧,我在这里想探讨的一件事是,我一直在看你的节目,我看到你对如今右翼某些部分的现状,表现出了日益增长的不安。
Original English
**Speaker A**: >> Well, one of the things I'm I'm touching into here is I've been watching your show and I see a growing vein of discomfort from you on at least what parts of the right are becoming.Speaker B: 当然。所以他在十二月发推文说:“右翼的媒体机构就是右翼教导其追随者如何思考的方式,而它目前正被阴谋论、心理剧和八卦冲突所吞噬。如果不加以遏制,它将把……”
Original English
**Speaker B**: >> Sure. So in December he tweeted, "The right's media apparatus is how the right teaches its followers how to think, and it's currently getting consumed by conspiracy, psychodrama, and tabloid conflicts. If left unchecked, it will turn the右翼建制派与网络右翼的分裂
Speaker A: “……导致受众沦落为类似于第三世界的点击农场。和我说说这个吧,是什么让你感到担忧?”
Original English
Speaker A: "...audience into the equivalent of a third world click farm. Tell me about that. What's been alarming you?"
Speaker B: 哈哈,有时候听到别人复述自己的话,你会觉得:“哦,这语言可真是相当生猛啊。”是的,这是一个巨大的问题。我这么说吧,建制派右翼和网络右翼之间正出现日益扩大的分裂。我认为建制派右翼在将一些不良倾向挡在我们的体制之外方面,确实值得赞赏,我觉得这很好。然而,网络右翼——
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah. Sometimes, man, you hear your quotes back, you're like, "Oh, that's kind of uh very lively language." Yeah. This is a huge problem. I'll put it this way. There's a growing split between the institutional right and the online right. The institutional right I think actually deserves credit for gatekeeping some of these kind of bad tendencies out of our institutions and I think that's good. However, the online—
Speaker A: 这里说的“建制派右翼”是指福克斯新闻(Fox News)和……
Original English
Speaker A: right being like Fox News and—
Speaker B: 对,还有保守派智库,比如曼哈顿研究所(Manhattan Institute)。可以说是整个专业右翼的建制层。我认为他们在将一些糟糕的心理和政治倾向挡在我们的体制之外方面,做得非常好。但我们现在面临的难题是,传统上,人们看待政治媒体的方式,总是将其视为体制的延伸。所以你会看到杂志、新闻简报、智库政策文件。互联网带来了便利,但也带来了代价。好处之一是能够轻松地与广大受众沟通。但负面影响是,精神错乱、疯狂和心理病态开始泛滥。在右翼,我认为这种现象在查理·柯克(Charlie Kirk)遭遇暗杀事件后进入了超速发展阶段;在此之前这种情绪就在酝酿,但那之后真的发生了转折。从历史上看,右翼一直有这种倾向。比如在战后时期,有一种类似约翰·伯奇协会(John Birch Society)的倾向,它随着时间推移时起时伏。而现在,在网络右翼中,你有像坎迪斯·欧文斯(Candace Owens)这样的人,她已经严重脱离现实,却拥有庞大的受众。我认为这不仅对公众不利,甚至从自私的角度来说,对右翼也是极其严重的伤害。因为如果你不能教导你的受众、追随者和政治基础如何正确思考,他们就不会有正确的行为,你也就无法获得正确的结果。因此,我认为对我们右翼来说,进行这场内部斗争很重要,也就是说,如果你认为是以色列暗杀了查理·柯克,或者你相信其他一些阴谋论,那么你就处于边缘地带,你不在这个运动之内。这就是现在正在发生的斗争。而且我认为,只要有足够的时间,我们会赢。
Original English
Speaker B: yes, conservative think tanks, you know, the Manhattan Institute, all of the kind of the institutional layer of the professional right, let's say, I think has done a very good job at gatekeeping some of these bad psychological and political tendencies out of our institutions. The problem that we're grappling with though is that the traditional way of thinking about political media is always as an outgrowth of institutions. So you'd have your magazines, your newsletters, your think tank, you know, policy papers. The internet has created costs and benefits. One of the benefits is the kind of ease of communication with a large audience. But one of the negatives is that you have the proliferation of insanity, madness, psychopathology. And on the right, I think this went into hyperdrive after the assassination of Charlie Kirk was bubbling up before then, but really then took a turn. And so you have this tendency on the right historically. You have like a kind of bircher tendency in the post-war era and then it kind of waxes and waines over time. And right now you have in the online right someone like Candace Owens who has departed so far from reality and yet has a massive audience. Um, and I think that it's doing a disservice to the public and even more say kind of self-interestedly doing a very grave disservice to the right because if you can't teach your audience, your followers, your political base how to think properly, they're not going to behave properly and you're not going to have proper outcomes. And so I think it's important for us on the right to have this internal fight, which is to say if you think that, you know, Israel assassinated Charlie Kirk or, you know, whatever kind of handful of conspiracies you have, you know, you're on the outside. You're not within the movement. And this is a fight that is happening now. And I think given sufficient amount of time, I think we'll win.
Speaker A: 为什么你认为你们会赢?因为我观察右翼时,我看到了塔克·卡尔森(Tucker Carlson)和他现在那帮人,他们比他以前的团队更热衷于阴谋论,并已经成为越来越占主导地位的人物。正如你指出的,坎迪斯·欧文斯的成功也令人震惊。我想从两个层面来问这个问题:他们究竟满足了受众怎样的需求?也就是说,他们提供了什么人们想要的东西?第二点,为什么你认为你们会赢?
Original English
Speaker A: Why do you think you'll win? Because I look at the right and I see Tucker Carlson and his current guys, which is a much more conspiratorial guys than he's had before, has become more and more dominant figure. As you note, Candace Owen success has been startling. I guess I'd ask this question in two dimensions. What is the audience demand that they are meeting? Right? What is it that they are providing that people want? And then I guess the second question is why do you think you'll win?
阴谋论的市场与心理机制
Speaker B: 好问题。首先,阴谋论的受众是极其庞大的。在惹上法律麻烦之前,像亚历克斯·琼斯(Alex Jones)这样的人靠卖维生素和生存用品赚了数百万美元。你想想,要产生那种级别的收入,需要一个庞大的、即便可能是在水面之下的沉默受众群。所以我觉得他们确实触及了受众的那一面。那是右翼的,但并不专属于右翼。事实上,许多转向这些阴谋论的人,正处于政治光谱马蹄铁理论的两端,他们的政治立场属于“亚意识形态”。他们更多的是一种感觉、一种认知、一种怨恨的集合。其次,阴谋论是如何起作用的?阴谋论对那些想要放弃自主权的人起作用;对那些在个人生活或公共生活中看不到建设性行动可能性的人起作用。因此,阴谋论为他们的虚无主义提供了合理化和正当化的借口。他们会填空说:“是这个群体,是那个群体,是某个其他群体在控制世界,让一切变得不可能,暗杀了我们的英雄。”这给了他们一把心理钥匙,且能够自我强化,因为对阴谋论者来说,阴谋论永远无法被证伪。它就像洋葱一样,只是又剥掉了一层。我告诉你为什么我认为我们会赢,因为我注意到,即便是在与我只有一层人际关系的人身上,阴谋论,尤其是反犹主义阴谋论,最终会烧毁你的大脑。所以我认为我们会看到很多这样的人物、很多这种心理倾向自行走向毁灭。此外,还有一个额外的原因——
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah, great question. So, first of all, the audience for conspiracy theories is enormous. Before his kind of legal troubles, someone like Alex Jones was making apparently millions of dollars selling vitamins and survival supplies and if you think about it, to generate that kind of revenue requires a massive, if kind of quiet, under the surface audience. And so I think they're really tapping into that side of the audience. It's right-wing, but not exclusively right-wing. And in fact, a lot of the people who have come over to these conspiracy theories are in that part of the horseshoe where their politics are, let's say sub ideological. They're more of a feeling, a perception, a set of resentments. Second, how do conspiracy theories work? Conspiracy theories work for people who want to forfeit agency, for people who do not see the possibility of constructive action in their personal lives or in public life. And therefore, the conspiracy theory gives them the rationalization and justification for their nihilism. It's, insert here, right? It's this group, it's that group, it's this other group that is controlling the world, making everything impossible, assassinating our heroes. And this gives them a psychological key, right? That is self-reinforcing because a conspiracy theory for conspiracy theorists can never be debunked, right? It's just one layer of the onion that gets peeled. And I'll tell you why I think we're going to win because I've noticed this even for people, let's say, in my kind of one degree of separation, conspiracy theories, and I think in particular anti-semitic conspiracy theories eventually fry your brain. And so I think that we'll see a lot of these personalities, a lot of these psychological tendencies kind of burn out on their own. Um, and on top of that as a kind of extra layer of—
Speaker A: 这对反犹主义的历史来说,可真是个极其乐观的看法。
Original English
Speaker A: an optimistic view on the history of anti-semitism right there.
Speaker B: 好了,我是在说,在短期内这些事情会有起伏,但我认为我所看到的美国,拥有比其他地方更强的抗体。其次,在制度层面上,对于我们右翼阵营来说,管理体制的人意识到了这个问题。他们正在直面它,我们正在处理它。对我来说,这是不可避免的。政治联盟必然会混合一些好的和坏的元素。问题在于谁处于领导地位?他们拥有怎样的勇气和正直?他们能成功吗?所以,当我审视当前的局面时,我认为这一派别比六个月或一年前的影响力要弱,我希望这种趋势能够继续下去。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah. Well, okay, I'm saying in the near term these things kind of wax and wayne, but I think what I've seen in the United States is a greater set of antibodies than you might find elsewhere. And then institutionally for our side on the right, I think that look, the people who run institutions are aware of the problem. They're confronting the problem. We're dealing with it. And to me, this is inevitable. Political coalitions are going to have some kind of mixture of the good and the bad. And the question is who's in a position of leadership? What kind of courage and integrity they have and can they succeed? And so I think that when I look at the field as it is, I think this say faction is less powerful than it was 6 months ago, a year ago and I hope that trend continues.
反建制浪潮与塔克·卡尔森的转变
Speaker A: 我认为这里存在一个关于右翼体制的有趣问题。我忘了这是切斯特顿(Chesterton)的名言还是C.S.刘易斯(CS Lewis)的名言,但其中一人说过:“当人们不再信仰上帝时,他们并不是什么都不信了;当人们不再信仰上帝时,他们什么都信。”我确实认为在体制问题上也有这个维度,现在右翼已经变得更加反建制。人们普遍认为体制不可能保持中立,很大程度上甚至无法做到公正,这种观点被更广泛地接受,并且针对美国生活中的许多体制发起了一种协同攻击。但是,又没有产生出新的体制替代品。你可以想象右翼和左翼拥有各自不同核心价值观的平行体制,因为我其实同意你的观点,即体制在其核心几乎总是包含价值观的,当你认为它们没有价值观时,这只是意味着你不知道那是什么。
Original English
Speaker A: I think there's an interesting question on institutions in the right here. You I forget if it's a Chesterton quote or a CS Lewis quote, but he says one of them says that when men stop believing in God, they don't believe in nothing. when men stop believing in God, they believe in everything. And I do think there's a dimension of that around institutions where the right has become much more anti-institutional. I think the view that institutions cannot be neutral and largely cannot even be impartial is much more widely held and there's been a sort of coordinated attack on many of the institutions in American life. But sort of new ones haven't emerged, right? You could imagine the right and the left having parallel institutions that have different core values because I do agree with you actually that institutions almost they do always have values at their heart and when you don't think they do it just means you don't know what they are.
Speaker B: 正确。
Original English
Speaker B: correct
Speaker A: 或者说它们的价值观被故意掩盖了。但我有时候会想到塔克·卡尔森,在这个话题下,他是一个很有意思的人物,因为他是从体制内成长起来的。我有时会回想他在2009年保守派政治行动会议(CPAC)上发表的演讲:
Original English
Speaker A: or they're being deliberately obscured right but I think sometimes about I think Tucker Carlson is an interesting figure here somebody who came up institutionally I think sometimes about this speech he gave at the 2009 conservative political action conference
Tucker Carlson (Recording): “我看到保守派创建了许多他们自己的媒体机构,我也看到其中很多机构蓬勃发展,同时也看到了一些机构的衰亡。这里的区别在于:那些失败的机构拒绝把准确性放在首位。这是保守派需要面对的残酷现实。我深信这一点。我和这个房间里的任何人一样保守。我确实正在囤积武器和食物,准备搬到爱达荷州。所以,在意识形态上,我绝不逊色于在座的各位。但我必须诚实地说,如果你建立一个新闻机构,其首要目标不是提供准确的新闻,你就会失败。你一定会失败。《纽约时报》是一份自由派报纸,而且它骨子里就是一份自由派报纸。但它也是一份关心是否把别人的名字拼对的报纸。总的来说,它是一份真正关心准确性的报纸。保守派需要建立能够映照那些机构的自身体制,这才是真相。你们不相信我?把对《纽约时报》的那些特殊辩解放在一边。”
Original English
Tucker Carlson (Recording): "and I saw conservatives create many of their own media organizations and I saw many of those organizations prosper and I saw some of them fail and here's the difference. The ones that failed refused to put accuracy first. This is the hard truth and conservatives need to deal with this. I believe this. I'm as conservative as any person in this room. I am literally in the process of stockpiling weapons and food and moving to Idaho. So I'm not in any way going to take a second seat to anybody in this room ideologically. But I will say honestly, if you create a news organization whose primary objective is not to deliver accurate news, you will fail. You will fail. The New York Times is a liberal paper, but it's also, and it is to its core a liberal paper. It's also a paper that cares about whether they spell people's names right. By and large, it's a paper that actually cares about accuracy. Conservatives need to build institutions that mirror those institutions that are that's the truth. You don't believe me? So, put aside the special pleading from the New York Times here."
Speaker A: 然后卡尔森试图建立他自己的媒体机构。
Original English
Speaker A: Carlson tried to build his own
机构的缺失与 Tucker Carlson 的演变
Speaker A: 机构,比如《每日来电》(The Daily Caller)。确实。
Original English
Speaker A: institution, the Daily Caller. Sure.
Speaker B: 嗯,我得说它没有,我的印象是,它并没有把准确性放在首位,而是变成了一种保守派的《纽约时报》。
Original English
Speaker B: Um, I would say it did not, my impression of it is that it did not become a place to put accuracy first and became a kind of conservative New York Times.
Speaker A: 它并没有成为一个保守派的——
Original English
Speaker A: It did not become a conservative.
Speaker B: 它并没有成为一个保守派的《纽约时报》。随着时间的推移,我认为他(Tucker Carlson)走向了越来越黑暗的方向,因为他在迎合受众。而现在,他完全脱离了机构,而且我认为,用这种方式来说,他演变成了一种我在听你说话时,你会觉得更加令人担忧和有问题的一种形式。那么,你认为那里出了什么问题?
Original English
Speaker B: It did not become a conservative New York Times. uh over time he went in I think darker and darker directions uh as he chased the audience and now he's fully without institution and has I think emerged I'll put it this way into a form I think when I listen to you you find more concerning and problematic. So what do you think went wrong there?
左翼与右翼的组织问题
Speaker A: 是的。这其实是一个长期趋势。这并不是在 2009 年或者 2020 年才出现的。我是这么看的。嗯,左翼是过度机构化的,而右翼则是缺乏机构化的。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah. Well it look this is a a long-term trend. This didn't emerge in 2009 or or 2020. I think of it this way. Um, the left is over institutionalized and the right is under institutionalized.
Speaker B: 伙计,我一直在说这个。左翼是被机构过度塑造的。而右翼则是缺乏塑造的。
Original English
Speaker B: I say this all the time, man. Left is over formed by institutions. The right is underformed.
Speaker A: 没错。所以我们面临着截然相反的问题。我也是这样认为的。我很久以前写过一篇关于这个的文章,我认为它现在依然非常适用。左翼是作为一个大写的“政党”(Party)组织起来的,而右翼则是在一个大写的“君主”(Prince)领导下组织起来的。所以你看到,唐纳德·特朗普基本上为右翼设定了方向,无论好坏,都是通过个人的魅力权力和他与保守派基础选民的关系。在右翼,你真的看不到那种你在其他地方会看到的起调解作用的机构。这就是为什么保守派至少在目前找到了这种获得政治胜利的公式。它有它的好处,也有它的问题。左翼有着相反的问题。嗯,我认为你在左翼看到的总统候选人之所以看起来缺乏传统的魅力,是因为它是作为一个机构设备或大写的“政党”组织起来的。
所以保守派在机构方面遇到了麻烦。保守派在建立机构方面遇到了麻烦。而这是最深的讽刺,对吧?在一个健康的共和国中,保守派本应该是那些保护机构、修复机构、维护机构的人。但保守派却发现自己处于机构之外。因此,当我们谈论反革命这个概念时,这是一个悖论,对吧?因为反革命不一定是在顶层的一种保守的冲动。你可以有一个保守的使命或目标来驱动它。这就是为什么它是一场反革命,而不是一场革命。
但是,保守派处于这种非常有趣的位置:在知识界的右翼有很多人,他们参加黑领结晚宴,参加乡村俱乐部的活动,在希尔顿(或随便什么)宴会厅吃鲑鱼晚餐。而我总是环顾四周,我不喜欢这些活动,因为我总是环顾四周说:“你们这些人疯了。”你们的运作方式,就好像在假装“麋鹿会”(Elks lodge)仍然是美国形成性的机构一样。你们活在一个幻觉中。你们活在一种怀旧中,并没有真正去应对这个国家面临的根本问题,并且与那些你们声称代表的选民完全脱节。
所以,这是一个问题。我无法说有一个能一响指就解决的办法。嗯,所以你只能从你所在的地方开始。你知道,我在一家我认为是业内最好的机构工作,那就是曼哈顿研究所(Manhattan Institute)。我认为我们做出了很好的工作,具有很高的准确性、严谨性和智慧。而且我认为,我们取得了极少有人能取得的那种实际的政治胜利。这个问题的另一个版本是,我很喜欢的一句话,那就是:左翼的人格类型是官僚主义的,而右翼的人格类型是专制主义的。我不认为过去一直是这样。你可以,让我给你个机会回应。
Original English
Speaker A: Correct. And so we have kind of opposite uh opposite problems. And I think of it also in in this way. I wrote a piece about this I don't know a long time ago and I think it really it really holds up. The left is organized as a capital P party and the right is organized under a capital P prince. So you have Donald Trump essentially sets the direction of the right for better for worse um through personal charismatic power and his relationship with the conservative base. There's really no mediating institutions uh in the kind of way that you would see elsewhere. That's where conservatives have figured out this formula for at least the time being to achieve political victory. It has benefits. It has it has problems. The left has the opposite problem. Um, the reason why I think you get like presidential candidates on the left that seem to be like devoid of traditional charisma is because it's organized uh as an institutional apparatus or a capital P party.
And so conservatives have a problem with institutions. Conservatives have a problem building institutions. And and this is the deepest irony, right? is that conservatives in a healthy republic would be the ones that are um preserving the institutions um restoring the institutions, maintaining the institutions. But conservatives have found themselves on the outside of institutions. And so when were talking about this concept of counterrevolution, it's a paradox, right? Because a counterrevolution is not necessarily um a conservative impulse on the top. You can have a conservative mission or goal that drives it. That's why it's a counterrevolution rather than a revolution.
Um, but conservatives are in this really interesting position where you have a lot of people on the intellectual right. They attend the black tai gallas. They attend the events at the country club. They eat the, you know, salmon dinner at the whatever Hilton, you know, ballroom. And I'm always looking around at these. I I you know don't like these events cuz I'm always looking around and saying you guys are out of your minds. You guys are operating as if um you know the Elks lodge was still the formative institution of the United States. You're living in a fantasy. You're living in a nostalgia that isn't actually grappling with the fundamental problems in the country and is totally out of step with the very voters that you claim to represent.
And so look, this is a this is a problem. I I I don't I can't say that there's a snap your finger solution. Um and so you have to start where you start. You know, I work for an institution that I think is, you know, the best in in in the business, the Manhattan Institute. I think we do good work that has a high degree of accuracy and rigor and intelligence. Uh and I think that we've put up uh practical political victories uh in a way that few others have. Another version of this is uh a line I like is that the personality type of the left is bureaucratic and the personality type of the right is autocratic. And I don't think that was always true. You let me give you a response.
Speaker B: 好吧,我不这么认为。
Original English
Speaker B: Well, I don't think so.
Speaker A: 我认为在特朗普时代是这样的。
Original English
Speaker A: I think in the Trump era it is.
Speaker B: 好吧。那么,你来证明一下。证明一下这个观点。
Original English
Speaker B: Okay. Well, it make the case. Make the case.
特朗普时代的忠诚度测试
Speaker A: 现在大家都站队支持唐纳德·特朗普。所以,这是我目前对这两个联盟的看法。唐纳德·特朗普在 2024 年大选中的天才之处在于,他打破了以前共和党中存在的多维度的政党忠诚度测试。你是支持生命权(反对堕胎)吗?你相信低税收吗?你知道,你的外交政策是什么?等等。你肯定能看到,左翼仍然在进行那种多维度的议程测试,而特朗普把它降级成了单一的忠诚度点:你个人支持他吗?如果你支持,你实际上还有空间持有各种其他不同的观点。你可以是一个技术未来主义者。
Original English
Speaker A: There is a falling in line behind Donald Trump. So, here is my view of the two coalitions right now. The genius of Donald Trump in the 2024 election was he collapsed the multi-dimensional test of party loyalty that existed in the previous Republican party. Were you pro-life? Did you believe in low taxes? You know, what was your foreign policy? Etc. And certainly the multi-dimensional agenda test you see on the left down to a single point of loyalty. Did you support him personally? If you did, there was actually room for a wide variety of other opinions. You could be a technofuturist.
Speaker B: 你可以是一个基督教传统主义者。你也可以是仅仅一两年前还在以民主党人身份竞选的 RFK Jr.(小罗伯特·肯尼迪)。
Original English
Speaker B: You could be a Christian traditionalist. You could be RFK Jr. who'd been running as a Democrat just a year or two before.
Speaker A: 嗯,但你也可以是 Ted Cruz。把这些维系在一起的是,那条你绝不能越过的底线就是特朗普本人。但只要你对他有用,你就可以在这个团队里。当你进入治理阶段时,这显然会有一些问题,而且我认为其中一些问题已经出现了,但这给了他和他的团队在其他问题上活动的自由。而在左翼,你知道,Kamala Harris、Tim Walz、Joe Biden 则更像是在“打勾”,对吧?这就是左翼使用的那种多维度的忠诚度测试。所以在左翼,你最终得到的是——我这里的左翼指的不是民主社会主义那些东西,而是这个国家里的左翼联盟,广泛的民主党——
Original English
Speaker A: Um, but also you could be Ted Cruz. And what held that together is that the line that you could not cross was Trump himself. But as long as you were useful to him, you could be on the team. Now that has obvious issues when you move into governance and I think some of them have have emerged but it gave him and them a freedom of movement across other issues where you know a comma Harris a Tim Walls uh Joe Biden were much more boxchecking right this sort of multi-dimensional loyalty test that the left uses and so on the left you end up with uh and I mean here the left not like the democratic social stuff but the left coalition in this country, the broad democratic party,
Speaker B: 你最终得到的是那些持有各种正确观点的人。
Original English
Speaker B: you end up with people who have sort of all of the right views
Speaker A: 而且有一种机构型的人格,对吧?他们有点规避风险,担心在会议上惹麻烦。而在右翼,你有这样的人——
Original English
Speaker A: and have an institutional personality, right? Are somewhat riskaverse, are worried about getting in trouble at a meeting. And on the right, you have people who
Speaker B: 他们会在开会时发疯。你可以像 Bill Py 那样,但只要老板喜欢你,你就是安全的。好的。是的。我认为其中确实有一些真实的元素。“君主”对抗“政党”。这是一种政治组织的方法,心理上的组织方式。当然,特朗普身上的一种巨大的试金石就是个人忠诚。就像我们看到的那样,你和特朗普在一起,他就会和你在一起;你要是违背他,他就会攻击你。
Original English
Speaker B: they'll go crazy in a meeting. You can be Bill Py, but as long as the boss likes you, you're safe. Okay. Yeah. I I think that there are elements of that that are true. prince versus party. It's a method of political organization, psychological organization. Certainly, one of Trump's kind of the great litmus test for him is personal loyalty. Like we we've seen that you're with Trump, he's he's with you, you're you're you cross him um and he'll he'll he'll attack you.
Speaker A: 哪怕你是金正恩也可以成为——
Original English
Speaker A: You could be Kim Jong-un and be
Speaker B: 哥们儿。那就像一部很棒的兄弟喜剧。我觉得那会成为一部兄弟喜剧。
Original English
Speaker B: buddy. It was like a nice buddy comedy. I feel like there'd be a buddy comedy.
Speaker A: 相比马克·卡尼(Mark Carney),他更喜欢金正恩。
Original English
Speaker A: He likes Kim Jong-un more than he likes Mark Carney.
Speaker B: 是啊。嗯,你知道,也算说得过去。就个人化学反应而言,确实,我认为那有一些道理,但我并不因此认为,我觉得你的结论有点过了。我不认为你能说右翼有专制主义的人格。我的意思是,我经常和保守派打交道。我没把它看作是一种心理倾向,而是看我一起工作的人,交谈的人,我的朋友和邻居。嗯,但是,是的,我认为这有点言过其实了。我认为这只是一个自上而下的政治组织问题,我不认为这完全只是忠诚,个人忠诚。我的意思是,特朗普想要限制移民,想要强有力的国家边界,建一堵墙;他想要那种基于美国国家利益的外交政策,尽管这方面现在有点不那么受重视。然后他代表了,或者至少倡导了许多我关心的问题,比如 DEI(多元、平等和包容),高等教育,文化机构,嗯,你知道,还有一大堆他真正抓住的其他子问题。听着,这很好。你有点必须利用现有条件来工作。你总是想为未来做计划,为未来建设,但最终你必须在当下做出决定。而且,总的来说,我认为在那些我们拥有更多活动自由、有更多能力执行政策的领域,我认为事情进展得相当顺利。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah. Well, you know, um, fair fair enough. And as personal chemistry goes, uh, but yeah, I think there's some truth to that, but I wouldn't therefore I think your conclusion is is overdrawn. I don't think you could say the right has autocratic personalities. I mean, I deal with conservatives all the time. I I don't see that as a psychological tendency, but the people I work with, the people I talk to, my friends and neighbors. Um, uh, but so yeah, I think it's over overdrawn. on I think this is just a question of political organization uh from the top and I don't think it's total just loyalty personal loyalty I mean Trump wants uh immigration restrictions strong national borders build a wall he wants uh kind of uh uh American national interestbased foreign policy although that is kind of uh a little bit on the outs and then he represents uh or at least championed a lot of the causes that that that that I cared about care about um you know on DEI I on higher education, on cultural institutions, um you know, and a and a whole host of other sub issues that he really grabbed on to. And and look, this is good. You you you you kind of have to work with what what is there. You want to you always want to plan for the future, build for the future, but ultimately you're faced with decisions in the moment. And uh look on the whole I think in those areas uh where we have had more freedom of movement more ability to to execute policy I think things have been going quite well.
Tucker Carlson 与福克斯新闻时代
Speaker A: 我想回到关于 Tucker(塔克)的话题。嗯,我见过你谈论你对他演变的看法,你提到过的一件事是,在福克斯新闻(Fox News)时代,当他被赋予发表晚上 8 点的独白时间时,在那个时代,它们是右翼的统一剧本。福克斯新闻是他周围的这种体制结构,也许在某种程度上包含了他,并创造了一种统一性和连贯性,而现在这种统一性和连贯性已经消散了,不仅是在他个人周围。
Original English
Speaker A: I want to go back to Tucker. So uh I've seen you talk about your take on his evolution and something you said is that the Tucker Carlson of the Fox News era when he was given his 8mm monologues that in that era they were a unifying script for the right. that Fox News was this institutional structure around him that maybe contained him to a certain point and that created a unity a coherence that has now dissolved not just around him specifically
关于塔克·卡尔森与白人民族主义的争论
Speaker A: ……但在更广泛的右翼群体中。现在,自由派对福克斯新闻时代的塔克·卡尔森(Tucker Carlson)的看法是,他开始将白人民族主义的元素带入共和党的核心,你知道的,The Daily Stormer(一个白人至上主义网站)上有很多文章都在说,他所表达的完全就是他们的想法。他当时在谈论“大替代”理论(Great Replacement theory)。当你看着乔·拜登(Joe Biden)的移民政策这一历史性悲剧时,你不得不问自己:这样做的目的是什么?他们让大量移民涌入这个国家,是为了改变人口结构,从而为他们自己维持政治权力,改变这个国家的种族比例。这就是原因:削弱那些祖先生活在这里的人的政治权力,并大幅增加从第三世界新来的美国人的比例。现在我知道,如果你使用“替代”这个词,左派和推特上所有那些小小的把关人简直会变得歇斯底里,但他们歇斯底里是因为这正是正在发生的事实。我们就直说吧,这是真的。在我们看来,他已经变得相当沉迷于阴谋论,现在的他和过去的他是一脉相承的,而且他所释放出的那种情绪也是如此。没错,理智当然是这种情绪的奴隶,所以事情总是会朝着那个方向发展;而在那一刻为他的言论叫好,然后又对他现在的样子感到困惑,这是一种奇怪的不愿去正视其中任何一面的态度。所以,告诉我你怎么看。
Original English
Speaker A: but uh around the right more broadly. Now, the liberal take on Tucker uh in the Fox News era is that he was beginning to bring a white national strain into centrality in the Republican party that, you know, there were all these Daily Stormer articles about how much uh he was saying exactly what they thought. He was talking about great replacement theory. And you've got to ask yourself as you watch the historic tragedy that is Joe Biden's immigration policy. What's the point of this? They are flooding this country with immigrants in order to change the demography to maintain political power for themselves to change the racial mix of the country. That's the reason to reduce the political power of people whose ancestors lived here and dramatically increase the proportion of Americans newly arrived from the third world. Now I know that the left and all the little gatekeepers on Twitter become literally hysterical if you use the term replacement, but they become hysterical because that's that's what's happening actually. Let's just say it. That's true. He had already in our view become quite conspiratorial and that what he is now and what he is then are a straight line from each other and that the sort of passions he was unleashing. Right. Reason of course being a slave of such passions that it was always going to go in one direction and that celebrating what he was at that moment and then being confused by what he is at this moment is a kind of like a strange unwillingness to either grapple with one or the other. So, tell me how you see it.
Speaker B: 是的,我,我不,我不这么看。我的意思是,当塔克在东部时间晚上8点,也就是我这里的西部时间下午5点,在福克斯新闻上出现时,感觉他真的就像是右翼的一个集结点。他就像一个四分卫,每天晚上8点在那里指挥战术;在开头的那5到10分钟里,塔克把观点进行了浓缩,代表了这些观点,反映了这些观点,然后大家就有了一个中心论点,一个中心连贯的论点去思考,去讨论,去以此为基础动员起来,而且这非常有效。所以,就拿我自己的经历来说,当我第一次开始报道体制内的批判性种族理论(CRT)时,我上了塔克的节目。塔克做了一个开场独白,当时特朗普总统正在看节目。第二天早上我就接到了白宫的电话:“嘿,总统在电视上看到你了,他想对批判性种族理论采取行动,来白宫吧,我们把这事办成。” 所以这种机制,甚至在我个人的经历中,其反馈循环可能还不到12个小时。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah, I I don't I don't see it that way. I mean, when Tucker was on Fox at that 8:00 PM Eastern time, 5:00 PM Western time for me, um it really did feel like a shelling point for the right. It was like a quarterback um calling the plays every night at 8:00 in that first, you know, 5 to 10 minutes where Tucker kind of condensed the opinion, represented the opinion, reflected back the opinion, uh and then everyone had uh a central point, a central coherent point to to think about, to talk about, to to mobilize on and it was very effective. So even in my own experience when I first started reporting on critical race theory in the institutions went on Tucker gave a kind of opening monologue with Tucker President Trump was watching it got a call from the White House the next morning hey the president saw you on TV he wants to take action on critical race theory come to the White House let's get this thing done and so that mechanism that even in my personal experience the loop on that was like less than 12 hours
Speaker A: 在白宫内部是非常紧密的循环。
Original English
Speaker A: very tight loop in the White House.
Speaker B: 而且我认为我从福克斯新闻了解到的另一点是,福克斯新闻有——这也非常值得称赞——福克斯新闻有一种纪律约束功能。我认为特别是在2020年之后,他们变得更加清楚地认识到:“好吧,信息纪律很重要。推动信息的传播很重要。这里是针对话语体系的护栏。”这是机构的职能,也是技术的职能。
Original English
Speaker B: And I think also what I've learned about Fox News is that uh Fox News uh has and this is to to its great credit, Fox News has a kind of disciplinary function. And I think especially after 2020 has become even more cognizant of okay, message discipline is important. Uh moving the message forward is important. Here's the kind of guard rails for the narrative. And this is a function of institutions, a function of technology.
Speaker A: 是的。但我所说的是这个话语体系本身是什么。我同意你的观点,即塔克在福克斯新闻时扮演了这个角色。但对于我们中很多人来说——我是说,在很多长期关注他、从他还是一个随和的自由意志主义者时就开始关注他的人了解他之前,我就认识塔克了……
Original English
Speaker A: Yes. But what I'm talking about is what the narrative itself is. I agree with you that Tucker played this role when he was on Fox News. But the thing that many of us who I mean I knew Tucker before many of us who had watched him for a long time from a good time libertarian,
Speaker B: 但是,你的具体指的是什么?我不能……你在引用像 The Daily Stormer 这样的东西,就好像,除了名字,我对 The Daily Stormer 一无所知。
Original English
Speaker B: but what what spec you you I can't you're invoking like the daily it's like I don't know anything about the Daily Stormer beyond beyond.
Speaker A: 他谈了很多关于“大替代”的话题。我是说,这已经被……等一下,这已经被非常详尽地记录下来了。我是说,都有关于他的传记了。《纽约时报》在这个问题上做了大量工作。他引入了一种宏观叙事,认为有一种功能——我会称之为精英阴谋集团——在进口棕色人种选民来取代你。嗯,你正在被代表外国利益和外国人的精英所背叛,他们试图以此改变这个国家的文化来谋取私利。这是他一直在反复强调的东西。
Original English
Speaker A: He talked a bunch about great replacement. I mean this has been exa hold on this has been exhaustingly documented. I mean there are biographies of the guy. The times did a bunch of work on this. The bringing in of a macro narrative that there was a function I would call it a cabal of elites importing brown voters to replace you. Um that you were being betrayed by elites representing foreign interests and foreign people to sort of alter the culture of this country to their benefit. was something he hammered all the time.
关于话语体系的辩论
Speaker A: (模仿节目语气)“福克斯新闻今晚报道,政府向一个与乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)有关联的组织提供了一笔1.72亿美元的拨款,该组织的存在是为了,引用一下,‘帮助年轻的越境者免遭驱逐’。那么,为什么允许某个在国外出生的亿万富翁从根本上改变我们的国家呢?这是个大问题,对吧?”他对移民犯罪问题毫不松懈的关注,对乔治·索罗斯毫不松懈的关注。所以对我来说,我看到了现在的塔克,也看到了过去的塔克。我同意现在的束缚稍微少了一些,但我看到他使用的是同样的战术。他只是因为没有了福克斯新闻,不得不把调门稍微调高了一点。
Original English
Speaker A: Fox News is reporting tonight that the administration awarded a $172 million grant to a George Soros linked organization which exists to quote help young border crossers avoid deportation. Now, why is some foreign born billionaire allowed to change our country fundamentally? That's the big question, right? A relentless focus on crime from immigrants, a relentless focus on George Soros. And so to me, I see Tucker now and I see Tucker then. And I agree the shackles are off a little bit, but I see him calling the same play. He's just had to turn up the dial a little bit because he doesn't have Fox News.
Speaker B: 我不,我不认为这是对的。而且我认为……让我们接受……
Original English
Speaker B: I don't I don't think that's right. And I think it Let's take the
Speaker B: 你呈现它的方式是非常具有攻击性的。嗯,我,我认为这不完全公平,但让我们接受这个指控,但让我们接受这个……但是,但是你所,你所描绘的这种叙事。我,我不认为那完全是,你知道,我会如何去表达它。当然,但潜在的事实要么是真的,要么不是真的。而在这种情况下,嗯,人口的,大规模的人口结构变化在过去和现在都是美国的现实。而且我认为在政治上讨论这个问题是公平的。我们已经在政治上讨论这个问题有10年了。当然,你可以用一种体现偏执或歧视的方式去做,但你也可以用一种并非偏执或歧视表达的方式去做。嗯,但事实上,这只是一个基本问题。嗯,一个美国人民自,呃,自1770年代以来就一直在问的问题:我们是谁?什么是美国人?嗯,如果我们是一个主权国家,我们不仅有权利,而且真的有义务去决定这些关于谁能进来、谁不能进来的重大问题。而且,而且,所以我,我不认为说一个关心快速和大规模人口变化的人是,是,是某种白人民族主义者是正确的。嗯,那,那听起来像是一种,一种……
Original English
Speaker B: You're presenting it in a way that is very charged. Um I I don't think quite fair, but let's take the charge, but let's take the but but the narrative that you're that you're portraying. I I don't think that that's exactly uh you know, how I would put it. certainly, but the underlying facts are either true or not true. And in this case, um, demographic mass demographic change has been and is a reality in the United States. And I think it's fair to talk about that politically. We've been talking about it politically for 10 years. And you could do it in a way that is exemplifies bigotry or discrimination, of course, but you can also do it in a way that isn't isn't an expression of bigotry or discrimination. Um, but in fact is just a basic question. Um, a question that the that people in the United States have been asking since uh since the 1770s. Who are we? What is an American? Um, and if we are a sovereign nation, we have the not just the right, but really the obligation to determine these great questions of who comes in, who doesn't come in. And and so I I don't think that it is it is right to say that someone who is concerned about rapid and large scale demographic change is is is kind of a white nationalist. Um, that that seems like a kind of the kind of
Speaker A: 不,我的意思是,我认为塔克是白人民族主义者的原因,是因为所有的那些白人民族主义言论。
Original English
Speaker A: No, I'm saying that the reason I think Tucker is a white nationalist is due to all the white nationalism.
Speaker B: 好吧,让我问,让我,让我问一个问题。让我问一个问题。不,不,因为那个,那个,我的意思是那是一个巨大的指控。嗯,而且,而且,而且我,我只是再次想问,那样的证据是什么?你可以关心,你能关心大规模的人口变化而不成为种族主义者吗?我,我认为答案是肯定的。
Original English
Speaker B: Well, let me ask let me let me ask a question. Let me ask a question. No, no, because that that I mean that is a huge charge. Um, and and and I I just again like what is the evidence of that? You could be concerned can you be concerned about mass demographic change without being racist? I I think the answer is yes.
Speaker A: 你如何定义白人民族主义者?
Original English
Speaker A: How do you define a white nationalist?
Speaker B: 嗯,你,你提出的指控。你来定义它,并,并证实你的,你的观点。
Original English
Speaker B: Well, you you make the charge. you define it and and substantiate your your point.
界定白人民族主义
Speaker A: 所以我认为塔克的观点是……
Original English
Speaker A: So I think that Tucker's view is that the
Speaker B: 把塔克抛开,就做一个普遍的论证,说明什么,什么是你可以,某种程度上层叠在塔克身上的。
Original English
Speaker B: take Tucker out of it just make an in general argument of what of what you can kind of layer in Tucker.
Speaker A: 所以我认为在白人民族主义中有一个直白的观点,那就是存在所谓白种人这样的东西。这个种族从根本上来说是欧洲人,来到这里并建立了这个国家。这个种族拥有——取决于我们在谈论的白人民族主义的变体——呃,基因优势或文化优势,并且这个种族理应拥有,应该拥有统治权,特别是对这个国家的统治权。这个观点有更强硬和更温和的版本,对吧?在某些版本中,犹太人被包含在那个白种人中……
Original English
Speaker A: So I think that there is a straightforward view in white nationalism that there is such a thing as a white race. That race is fundamentally European came here and founded this country. that race has depending on the variant of white nationalism we're talking about uh genetic advantages or cultural advantages and that that race deserves to have should have dominance particularly over this country there are harder and softer versions of this right in some versions Jews are included in that white race
Speaker B: 当然。
Original English
Speaker B: sure
Speaker A: 在某些版本中,他们不被包含在那个白种人中。在某些版本中,我们在谈论的,我会主要将其描述为一种民族主义,对吧,你明白的,如果一个国家有太多人不共享共同的传统,你就会失去团结。在某些情况下,我们谈论的是比这黑暗得多的东西。没错。有些人就是不喜欢他们的社区正在改变的方式。还有三K党(KKK),对吧?一切都存在于一个光谱上。但是,但是你会说,一个比如对快速的大规模人口变化感到犹豫的人,仅仅是某种 1% 的白人民族主义者吗。是的。因为那可能就像是这个国家的大多数人一样。
Original English
Speaker A: in some versions they're not included in that white race in some versions we are talking about something I would describe primarily as a kind of nationalism right the you know If you have too much of a country not sharing a common heritage, you lose solidarity. In some cases, we're talking about something much darker than that. Right. There are people who just don't like the way their community is changing. And there's the KKK, right? Everything exists on a spectrum. But but would you say someone who is like, for example, hesitant about rapid large scale demographic change is just a kind of 1% white nationalist. Yeah. because that would be like the majority of the country.
Speaker B: 是的。我不认为担心大规模的快速人口变化是个问题,或不公平,甚至也不是错误的。所以,也许具体到塔克来说,所以你刚刚请来了,嗯,右翼作家斯科特·格里尔(Scott Greer)。嗯,他即将出版一本关于网络右翼的书,叫《白药丸》(White Pill)。所以格里尔曾是 The Daily Caller 的前副主编。他在2018年因过去……离开了那里。
Original English
Speaker B: Yes. I don't think it is a problem or unfair or even wrong to worry about large scale rapid demographic change. So to maybe to be more specific about Tucker, so you just had on um the right-wing writer Scott Greer. Um he's got a book coming out on the online right called White Pill. So Greer was a former deputy editor at the Daily Caller. He left in 2018 after past...
关于极右翼人物的演变与主流化
Speaker A: 白人民族主义网站上的文章被挖了出来。他曾经这样评价塔克(Tucker)——这是格里尔(Greer)在说话——塔克最终是和我们站在一边的。他能让成百上千万的婴儿潮一代对那些几年前只有在 Vdare 或《美国复兴》(American Renaissance)上才能看到的论点点头赞同。这两个都是白人民族主义网站。所以,我想问你对此有什么看法?
Original English
Speaker A: writings for white national site were dug up. And he once said of Tucker, so this is Greer speaking, Tucker is ultimately on our side. He can get millions and millions of boomers to nod along with talking points that would have only been seen on Vair or American Renaissance a few years ago. These are both white national sites. So I guess what do you make of that?
Speaker B: 是的。我来告诉你我的看法。关于这些曾经处于右翼边缘阵营、在某些方面认识到了那种意识形态思维错误的人物,我认为真正有趣的是这一点。对我来说,你总是要给人成长的空间,给人留下抛弃糟糕想法的空间,给那种批判性自我反省的空间,然后再重新融入主流思想中。我觉得你知道,斯科特·格里尔(Scott Greer)是个有趣的人,我们采访他的原因之一,就是想描绘出这种轨迹——有很多人曾经有更激进的政治观点,然后他们随着时间的推移变得温和。所以我非常有兴趣去了解那种意识形态发展和成长的过程,然后真正审视它。你想要去尝试弄清楚,好吧,走出那种状态的方法是什么?去神秘化、去破坏、去某种程度上剥夺那种思维方式合法性的途径是什么?我觉得和曾经有过那些想法的人交谈是件有意思的事。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah. So I'll tell you what I make of it. And here's what I think is really interesting about some of these figures who were on the once kind of fringe elements of the right who have in some ways seen the errors of that way of ideological thinking. And to me, you always want to leave people room to to grow up, room to leave bad ideas behind, room for um kind of critical self-reflection, and then to integrate back into the kind of mainstream thinking. And I think you know Scott Greer is interesting and one of the reasons why we interviewed him was to kind of chart out this trajectory which there's a lot of people that had more radical politics and then they moderate over time. And so I was very interested in understanding that process of kind of ideological development and growth and then and then really scrutinizing you want to actually try to figure out all right well what's the way out of that? What's the way to to demystify to defang to to kind of delegitimize that way of thinking? And I think it's interesting to talk to people who once had those ideas.
Speaker A: 所以,我根本不反对你和他交谈。对吧。我所说的并不是你不应该采访斯科特·格里尔。
Original English
Speaker A: So, I'm not against you talking to him at all. Right. What I'm saying is not that you shouldn't interview Scott Greer.
Speaker B: 当然。
Original English
Speaker B: Sure.
Speaker A: 我认为许多人的政治立场会发生巨大的改变。而左翼实际上存在的一个大问题,就是没有给人改变的空间。
Original English
Speaker A: I think many people change their politics dramatically. And one of the big problems the left actually has is not giving people space to change.
Speaker B: 确实。
Original English
Speaker B: Sure.
Speaker A: 以及把人关进一个盒子里,把他们困在过去的样子里,而不是他们可能成为的样子。我的问题不在于你。我只是说,在那个时期我看着塔克,心想,“嗯,他正朝着这个方向走,我理解这就是那种论调,你知道的,类似于 Vdare 的观点,”而且他们都对他大加赞赏。但我想我的问题是——或者说为了把问题表述得更精确,或许我还没做到——关于他的走向以及部分右翼的走向,其中一个教训是否是:像你这样身处右翼的人有些不够敏感,没有察觉到有些事情不仅仅是打破了自由派的禁忌,而是正朝着一种我们姑且称之为以白人身份为焦点的政治方向演变?
Original English
Speaker A: and putting people into a a box where they're held in who they were as opposed to who they may become. My problem is not with you. I'm saying that I looked at Tucker in that period and thought, "Huh, he's going in this direction that I understand this to be the argument of, you know, a vair of a" and they all celebrated him. But I guess the question is whether to to phrase a question precisely which maybe I haven't yet whether one of the lessons of where he has gone and where some of the right has gone is that people like you on the right were a little insensitive to when something wasn't just a breaking of a liberal taboo but was a movement towards a politics that was much more let's call it white identity focused.
Speaker B: 听着,我……好的,这是一个非常重要的问题。我想从几个方面来剖析它。第一,我不认为那完全准确。我实际上认为,你刚才读的那段声明,你可能也能从其他许多人那里读到类似的话,对吧?如果你还记得在 2016 年,理查德·斯宾塞(Richard Spencer)高调地举办了一场某种形式的会议或聚会,他说,“哦,是的,特朗普已经采纳了,你知道,特朗普就是另类右翼的产物。是我们用意志把唐纳德·特朗普送上总统宝座的。我们让这个梦想成为了现实。而且,只要我们意志坚定,它就不再是梦想。”这段名言我敢肯定反诽谤联盟(Anti-Defamation League)的朋友们再清楚不过了。那完全是妄想。完全是自私自利的,而且是自恋的产物,我不会从字面上把它当真。所以,我认为你提到的那些激进分子在很大程度上夸大了这种联系,因为他们绝望地想要相信这一点。而且我认为,像塔克这样的人,我不认为说塔克在 2021 年的福克斯(Fox)频道上,在洗白并引入来自《美国复兴》的论点这种说法是准确的。我只是不认为那是真的。我认为这是把对移民问题的一种可能是肤浅的反对情绪混为一谈了。这种混淆把戏真的非常非常非常不诚实,不幸的是它在很长一段时间里竟然奏效了。所以,我认为实际上我们现在所处的境况比过去好多了,我还记得当时像反诽谤联盟、南方贫困法律中心(SPLC)、媒体事务(Media Matters)等一些组织,他们为了很多很多诽谤冲着我来,试图毁掉我的名誉,试图让我在社交媒体上被封杀,试图可以说是把我从公共领域中抹除,但这些都没有得逞。值得庆幸的是,我还要补充一下,美国公民自由联盟(ACLU)也没成功。事实上,当我回过头来看时,他们提出的那些论点都是荒谬绝伦的,他们之所以能够得逞,仅仅是因为人们感到恐惧。所以,我很高兴我们不再生活在那样的恐惧状态中。在今天,我们可以非常理性地在桌面上进行交谈,我认为这是件好事。嗯,但我当然不会忘记那个时代的情感基调和政治上的脆弱性。再强调一次,当时南方贫困法律中心因为天知道什么原因来找我麻烦,但同时却在给新纳粹分子和白人民族主义者塞钱,以维持他们的运作。这向我表明,美国社会中种族主义的供应——包括美国右翼内部的种族主义——在现实生活中已经萎缩到了极小的程度,以至于需要南方贫困法律中心实际向那个生态系统注入资金,仅仅是为了让它苟延残喘。所以,我只是不觉得……
Original English
Speaker B: Look, I Okay, hu huge point. I I would break it down in a couple ways. One, I I I don't think that's that's quite accurate. I actually think that the the the statement you're you're reading, and you could probably read it from a number of other people, right? If you remember in 2016, uh Richard Spencer famously held like some sort of uh conference or or or group and he said, "Oh, yes, Trump has um has adopted, you know, Trump is a creation of the alt-right. We willed Donald Trump into office. We made this dream our reality. And if we will it, it is no dream. A quote I'm sure our friends at the Anti-Defamation League know very well. It was completely delusional. um totally self-s serving and and uh uh a product of narcissism that I wouldn't take uh at face value. And so I think a lot of the radical elements you're talking about overstate um uh overstate this relationship because they desperately want to believe it. And I think that um you know someone like Tucker I I I don't I don't think it's accurate to say that Tucker uh on Fox in in you know 2021 was laundering in you know talking points from you know American Renaissance. I just I I I don't think that's true. I think it's conflating a kind of maybe superficial opposition to immigration. um and and the the conflation game is is is really really really I think dishonest and unfortunately for a lot of time it worked and so I think that in fact we're in a much better place than in the past and I remember some of these groups like ADL SPLC um media matters you know they came after me with many many smears trying to destroy my reputation trying to get me deplatformed from social media trying to to kind of eliminate me from the public sphere none of it worked Thankfully, the ACLU, I would also add, um, and in fact, as I look back, the arguments that they were making were were were preposterous, and they only succeeded because people felt fear. And so, I I'm glad that we don't live in that condition of fear anymore. And today, we can talk very reasonably across a table, which I think is good. Um, but I'm certainly not going to forget the emotional tone and the political um, uh, vulnerabilities of that era. And again, the SPLC that was coming after me because of God knows what was at the same time giving money to neo-Nazis and white nationalists to keep them afloat. And what that shows me is that the supply of racism in the United States uh and including racism on the right in the United States has dwindled to such a small degree in real life that it took the SPLC to actually inject cash into that ecosystem merely to keep it alive. And so I I just I just I I just don't Yeah.
Speaker A: 对于那个时期的一种很有说服力的看法,这也是我的看法,就是有两件事在当时似乎是同时成立的。其一,言论监管走得太远了。有太多的“取消文化”(cancellation)。有太多这样的情况:人们不再愿意去辩论,而是试图让辩论变得不可能。这一切都发生了,对吧?我不否认其中的任何一点。而另一方面,当时许多偏左翼的人所担心的,或者说他们所预测的,也都发生了。另类右翼从边缘地带向中心靠拢了许多。我总会想起……
Original English
Speaker A: persuasive one way of thinking about that period that I think is how I think about it is that two things were sort of true at the same time. So one, there was way too much speech policing. There was too much cancellation. There was too much that instead of being willing to have arguments, people just tried to make the arguments unhavable. That all happened, right? I don't deny any of it. And on the other hand, a lot of what people more on the left in that moment were afraid of or what they predicted also happened. The alt-right moved much more from the fringe to the center. I always think about um
Speaker B: 另类右翼在夏洛茨维尔(Charlottesville)事件后就被彻底摧毁了。
Original English
Speaker B: the alt-right was totally destroyed after Charlottesville.
Speaker A: 我……
Original English
Speaker A: I I I
Speaker B: 对,
Original English
Speaker B: yeah,
Speaker A: 我觉得也许我们对另类右翼代表了什么有不同的看法。
Original English
Speaker A: I think maybe we have a different view of what the alt-right represented.
Speaker B: 嗯,这很合理,但我认为很多想法……
Original English
Speaker B: Um which is fair enough, but I think a lot of ideas
Speaker A: 那些想法曾是非常、非常偏离中心的。我想到埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)和他写的东西,我是说后来他不得不去想办法为这件事道歉,但是当有人基本上说诸如犹太人一直在资助伟大的替代计划时……
Original English
Speaker A: that were very very very far from the center. I think about Elon Musk and him writing and I mean later he had to like try to figure out how to apologize for this and but when somebody basically said like the Jews have been funding the grace replacement.
Speaker B: 埃隆说过那种话吗?
Original English
Speaker B: Did Elon say that?
Speaker A: 是的。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah.
Speaker B: 不,埃隆没说过。他所说的是,在那个推文下面,他对那个发推文的人说“你说出了真相”,然后他不得不去奥斯威辛(Auschwitz)集中营之类的地方。
Original English
Speaker B: No, Elon didn't say that. What he said was underneath that he said to whoever had tweeted that you have spoken the truth and then he had to go to Ashwitz and things like that.
Speaker A: 好的。去奥斯威辛。是的。
Original English
Speaker A: Okay. The Ashwitz. Yeah.
Speaker B: 奥斯威辛道歉之旅。所以,
Original English
Speaker B: The Ashwitz apology tour. So,
Speaker A: 但你知道,即便是现在,马斯克也是非常有阴谋论色彩的,而他在 2026 年所处的位置——现在是世界上第一位万亿富翁,拥有,你知道的,过去的 Twitter。
Original English
Speaker A: but you know, even now Musk is very conspiratorial and where he is in 2026 now the world's first trillionaire owning, you know, what used to be Twitter.
Speaker B: 嗯,而他源源不断注入大众注意力流中的那些东西,即便是放在特朗普的第一个任期内,也会被认为是极其边缘化的。所以我认为有两件事是真的,对吧?我认为在很多方面,左翼确实走得太远了;而左翼势力当时所担心的那些东西,现在也更加接近中心了。是的,另类右翼中有一部分今天已经不再重要了。理查德·斯宾塞不再是个重要人物。尼克·富恩特斯(Nick Fuentes)的受众比理查德·斯宾塞曾经拥有过的还要多。
Original English
Speaker B: Um, and the things he like kind of pumps into the attentional stream would have been considered incredibly marginal even in Trump's first term. So, two things I think were true, right? I think there are many ways which the left went too far and the thing the forces the left were was worried were there are much closer to the center. Yes, there are parts of the alt-right that are not significant today. Richard Spencer is not a significant figure. Nick Fuentes has a bigger audience than Richard Spencer ever did.
Speaker A: 当然。我是说当我在 X 平台和其他地方时,我看到人们的互动提及中不断出现的单纯的反犹太主义和反印度种族主义数量,简直让我觉得不可思议。而且,我的意思是,虽然我不认为他能赢,但你看看正在竞选佛罗里达州长(governor in Florida)的菲什巴赫(Fishbach),想象一个像他这样的人能成为共和党政治中的人物,还能获得几乎任何人的支持,这都有点让人难以想象。我认为人们担心他的原因在于,他们并不认为他会赢,但他似乎在年轻右翼群体中非常吃得开。
Original English
Speaker A: Sure. And there is I mean when I'm on X and other places, the amount of just constant anti-semitism and anti-Indian racism I see just happening in people's mentions is wild to me. And I mean I don't think he'll win, but you look at Fishbach who's running for governor in Florida, it's sort of almost unimaginable to think of somebody like him being a figure in Republican party politics who would be commanding the support of practically anybody. And I think the reason that people worry about him is they don't think he's going to win, but he seems to be doing very well among the young right.
Speaker B: 当然。
Original English
Speaker B: Sure.
Speaker A: 所以我认为你可以坚持你的观点,我至少在部分程度上也同意,也就是左翼、言论监管以及那些边界限制在很多方面确实走得太远了。但同时,那些在那个时期最为火急火燎的人也有他们的道理,还有他们一些更为疯狂的预测。我就在想,如果当初你告诉我,特朗普会让小罗伯特·肯尼迪(RFK Jr.)担任卫生与公众服务部(HHS)部长,让图尔西·加巴德(Tulsi Gabbard)担任国家情报总监(DNI),并且试图……
Original English
Speaker A: And so I think you can hold your view, which I at least partially share, that there are many ways in which the left and the speech policing and the um you know boundaries went too far. And also a lot of the people who were most hair on fire in that period had a point and some of their more kind of wild predictions. I was thinking about like if you had told me that Trump was going to make RFK Jr. HHS secretary and Tulsi Gabber DNI um and try
Speaker B: ……这是谁的胜利……
Original English
Speaker B: the triumph of
Bipartisanship & Extreme Movements
Speaker A: ……并试图让马特·盖茨 (Matt Gaetz) 担任司法部长。我本以为那就像是一种疯狂的、抵抗运动式的 Substack 上的观点,然后这一切都真的发生了。所以,这些事情竟然可以同时成真。
Original English
Speaker A: and try and try to make Matt Gates attorney general. I would have thought that was like an unhinged like resistance Substack take and then it all happened. So it's like the fact you can have these things be true at the same time.
Speaker B: 是的。我、我、我、我觉得,我觉得你某种程度上低估了,呃,某种程度上低估了其中一方的动态。我的意思是,这不仅仅是关于言论审查。呃,在2020年之后,左翼维持着一种类似社会性抹杀的机制,我自己就经历过。我遭到美国公民自由联盟 (ACLU) 的传唤,他们用一场让我损失惨重的法律战 (lawfare) 来骚扰我。南方贫困法律中心 (SPLC) 和反诽谤联盟 (ADL) 把我列入某种完全是捏造的仇恨名单,试图毁掉我的名誉。因此,我遭遇了,你知道,呃,呃,你知道,针对我的暴力威胁,而且在当时非常可信。呃,所以,你知道,人们试图,呃,呃,你知道,攻击我的家人,我的孩子。我的意思是,我们不应该忘记那段时期有多么糟糕,那段时期有多么疯狂。而且不幸的是,虽然我认为左翼的许多机构在因为纵容这种行为而尝到后果之后吸取了教训,但是,呃,他们引发的那些运动,呃,实际上依然活跃且生机勃勃。而且,看,我、我、我认为你可能没有看到的区别在于,激进的、虚无主义的、暴力的左翼运动得到了左翼机构的全力支持。而我们所说的是,右翼的激进、虚无主义运动没有任何机构支持,它们只是在你推特的评论区里冒泡,这我再次表示不认同,呃,但这是性质上的不同,呃,而不仅仅是数量上的。而在像詹姆斯·菲什巴赫 (James Fishbach) 这样的人的例子中,我认为这是一个很好的测试。菲什巴赫非常有魅力,我想我们都会同意这一点。我和你的同事米歇尔·戈德堡 (Michelle Goldberg) 谈过这个问题,呃,但即使拥有这种个人魅力,如果他就像竞选佛罗里达州州长的一个喜欢咸猪手的候选人,这再次就像是一件正在发生的疯狂的事情。我想看到实际的投票统计,因为那会向我展示他,呃,他在实际的保守派人群中、保守派选民中、作为一个整体的保守派运动中的地位。我怀疑他会被彻底击败。这就像维韦克 (Vivek) 在俄亥俄州与一个叫凯西·普什 (Casey Push) 的人竞选时发生的那样。他被击败了,我不知道,落后了 60、70 个点。因此,呃,相比之下,你看看像跨性别意识形态运动这样的东西,呃,我认为这既是一种谎言。它、它是建立在一系列谎言的基础上的,它维持了这种,呃,压制性的、威胁性的、审查性的力量,在推特的前马斯克时代 (pre-Elon Twitter days) 以及普遍的觉醒 (woke) 岁月里。然后,看,另一个令人不舒服的事实,呃,按人均计算,他们犯下的大规模暴力行为比任何其他群体都要多。所以我、我愿意纵容,呃,并且认为有必要对,比方说,我自己阵营中的一些元素进行某种批评。但我也认为,如果我们只是去衡量它,把它放在天平上,你知道,它、它看起来更像是这次针对特朗普总统的暗杀企图、查理·柯克 (Charlie Kirk) 的被暗杀、保守派只是为了走进大学校园所必须具备的那种安保姿态。这就是我衡量它的方式。就像我正在看着它。我正在感受它。我和我的同事们一起看到了它。查理·柯克被杀后,我打电话给业内所有的朋友和同事。我有好几个星期都完全心烦意乱。并且,呃,再说一次,虽然我不支持,呃,你知道,詹姆斯·菲什巴赫竞选州长,再说一次,我认为这只是一种空洞的象征主义。而在另一边,感觉这些意识形态得到了机构的支持。他们在过去不负责任地行使权力,并且仍然拥有这种终极的政治威胁,那种我认识的我这个圈子里的每个人,呃,呃,你知道,都见过、经历过、害怕过的暴力威胁。
Original English
Speaker B: Yes. I I I think I think I think you're you're kind of understating uh uh kind of understating the dynamic on on one side. I mean, it wasn't just about speech policing. Um the after 2020, the left maintained uh kind of apparatus of social annihilation, and I went through it myself. I had the ACLU subpoena me and harass me with a lawfare campaign that cost me a lot of money. I had the SPLC and the ADL put me on some sort of hate list that was totally bogus trying to destroy my reputation. And so I had people, you know, uh uh you know, threats of violence against me that were very credible at the time. Uh and so, you know, people trying to get uh uh you know, going after my family, my kids. I mean, we shouldn't forget just how awful that period was and how insane that period was. And unfortunately, while I think that many of the institutions on the left have learned after having suffered some consequences for enabling that, um, the movements that they have sparked, um, are in fact alive and well. And look, I I I think the difference that maybe you're not seeing is that the radical, nihilistic, and violent left-wing movements have the full support of the left's institutions. And what we're talking about is a radical, nihilistic movements on the right do not have any institutional support. and are bubble up in your Twitter comments which again don't agree um but is is different uh in kind not just in quantity and in the case of someone like James Fishbach I think it's a great test fishbach is very charismatic I think we would all agree on that I talked with your colleague Michelle Goldberg about this um but even with a kind of individual charisma if he's like the groper candidate for governor of Florida which is again like kind of a crazy thing that that is happening thing. I want to see the actual vote tally because that's going to show me where he is um where he stands with the actual conservative uh population, the conservative voter, the conservative movement as a whole. I suspect that he's going to get absolutely trounced. It happened with Vivc running against a guy Casey Push uh in Ohio. He got blown out by I don't know 60 70 points. And so, um, by contrast, you look at something like the the the kind of trans ideological movement, um, that I think is both kind of a lie. It's it's grounded in in a series of falsehoods, maintained this, um, suppressive, threatening, sensorious power in the kind of prelon Twitter days and in the general kind of woke years. And then look another uncomfortable fact uh per capita has committed more mass violence than any other group. And so I I am willing to indulge in uh and and think it's important to to have a kind of criticism of let's say you know elements of my own side. But I also think that if we were to just measure it out to put it on a scale, you know, it it's it's looking a lot more like this assassination's attempt against President Trump, the assassination of Charlie Kirk, the kind of security posture that's required for conservatives just to go on a college campus. That's how I measure it. It's like I'm looking at it. I'm feeling it. I'm seeing it with my colleagues. After Charlie Kirk was killed, I called all the people, friends and colleagues in the business. And I just like was completely distraught for for for weeks. And uh again, like while I don't support uh you know, James Fishbach for governor, again, I think that that's kind of an empty symbolism. Whereas on the other side, it feels like these ideologies have the support of the institutions. They wielded power irresponsibly in the past and still have the kind of ultimate political threat, the threat of violence that I know everybody in my world um um you know has seen, has experienced, has has feared.
Speaker A: 呃,所以,我的意思是,这让我很清醒。你没有看到这一点吗?是我对它的看法不同,但我要说的是,我理解你的体验,对吧,而且作为一个,你知道,有时候也会处理暴力威胁和其他类似事情的人,我认为这在左翼人士看来,特别是现在看来,往往是这样的:当你说这些虚无主义的,我想你称之为观念、思想,在右翼高层不被接受,它们只在左翼受到机构支持时。我的看法恰恰相反。
Original English
Speaker A: Um and so I mean that grounds me do you not see that? is that I don't have the same view of it but let me hold as saying that your experience of it I understand right and as somebody who also you know sometimes deals with threats of violence and other things of that nature I think the way this often looks to people on the left particularly looks right now is that when you say these nihilistic I think you call them ideals ideas are not held at high levels of the right they're only supported institution usually on the left. I see it the opposite way.
Speaker B: 真的吗?
Original English
Speaker B: Really?
Speaker A: 对,我的看法恰恰相反。我会、我会解释为什么。我不认为 SPLC,南方贫困法律中心,是一个强大、有力的左翼行动者。他们不是。
Original English
Speaker A: Right. I see it the opposite way. And I'll I'll explain why. I don't see the SPLC, the Southern Poverty Law Center, as like a powerful, potent left-wing actor. They're not
Speaker B: 真的吗?他们在10年前可以,他们可以毁了你。
Original English
Speaker B: really They could 10 years ago, they could nuke you
Speaker A: 听我说完,我会讲完我的观点。呃,ADL我甚至不认为属于左翼,这是另一个问题了。我理解。但我看到特朗普政府是强大而极端的,并且愿意利用联邦政府的权力,从,你知道,部署 ICE 和 CBP 特工到不同的城市,到指示司法部去调查和对付谁,再到查理·柯克被谋杀后试图让那些只是一些发过糟糕推文的普通人被解雇。我没有看到一个右翼极端分子与这届政府之间存在巨大鸿沟的世界。我一直听到像你这样的人,对吧,我想你谈论过这个,说在国会的众议院和参议院办公室里有大量的发牢骚的人在工作,而且,你知道,如果你是一个特朗普的幕僚,“青铜时代变态” (Bronze Age pervert) 是最受欢迎的读物之一。而且我看到这些东西实际上正在进入像国家安全战略这样的东西,你知道,关于欧洲的文明自杀。现在,我承认我们不会在所有这些事情上达成一致,对吧?这一部分我不打算试图去弥合分歧。我想说的是,我认为左翼人士看到的另一件事是,从,你知道,2016年到2024年的某种发展,事态发展到如此地步几乎令人难以置信,对吧?甚至特朗普1.0和特朗普2.0也是非常、非常不同的野兽。因此,突然之间,想象富恩特斯 (Fuentes)、圣卡尔森 (St. Carlson) 和菲什巴赫 (Fishbach) 代表着未来而不是边缘,看起来并不那么不可能了。我认为给我们许多人留下深刻教训的是,将某种周围似乎聚集着大量能量的事物当作边缘事物而不予理会是危险的,因为今天的边缘可能就是明天的——或许不是中心,但肯定是活跃得多的、强大的政治力量。
Original English
Speaker A: like I'll go through I'll go through my thing. Um ADL I don't even see as on the left, which is a different question. I understand. But I see the Trump administration as powerfully and potently extreme and willing to use the power of the federal government from, you know, deploying ICE and CBP agents to different cities to directing the DOJ who to investigate and go after to after Charlie Kirk's murder trying to get people fired who are just sort of random people who had done shitty tweets. I do not see a world in which there is this huge separation between the extreme elements of the right and this administration. I keep hearing from people like you, right, who I think has talked about this, that there's a huge number of gripers working in uh House and Senate offices in Congress that, you know, Bronze Age pervert is one of the most uh popular people to read if you're a Trump staffer. And I see those things actually moving into things like national security strategies, you know, about the civilizational suicide of of Europe. Now, I recognize we're not going to agree on all this, right? This this part I'm not going to try to like bridge the gap. What I will say is that the the other thing I think people on the left see has been a a sort of movement from, you know, 2016 to 2024 where it's almost unbelievable how far things have gone, right? Even Trump one to Trump 2 are very very different beasts. And so all of a sudden it doesn't look impossible to imagine that Fuentes St. Carlson and Fishbach are the future not the fringe. I think a lesson that has been burned into many of us is that it is dangerous to dismiss something that seems to have a lot of energy around it as a fringe because what is today's fringe is tomorrow's maybe not center but much more live and potent political force
Speaker B: 那你会说你看到这种事情发生在左翼,在,你知道,2014年到2024年之间吗?
Original English
Speaker B: and would you say that you saw that that happen on the left between you know 2014 and and 2024
Speaker A: 绝对的。
Original English
Speaker A: absolutely
Speaker B: 是的,在某种程度上,我认为你们即将学到我们学过的一些教训。
Original English
Speaker B: yeah in part I think you guys are about to learn some lessons we learned.
Speaker A: 是的。是的。我的意思是,也许吧,但我会争辩说,实际上右翼在管理它方面做得更好。而且我想我们会看到的,而且我、我希望我是对的,在像菲什巴赫竞选这样的事情上,你知道,我认为詹姆斯·菲什巴赫是一个人形模因 (meme),这太神奇了。他就像,如果你把那部分网络讨论中的模因能量转化成一个人,那就会像詹姆斯·菲什巴赫一样,看起来和听起来都是如此。但现实是,一旦这些思想与右翼的人民、文化、机构发生接触,它们就哪儿也去不了了。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, maybe so, but I would argue that actually the right has done a better job at managing it. And I think we'll see, and I I hope I'm right that with something like the fishback campaign, you know, I think of James Fishbach as a human meme, it's like amazing. He's like, if you take the mimemetic energy from that corner of the online discourse and turned it into a human being, it's like it would look and sound like James Fishbach. But the reality is that once those ideas gain contact with the the the people, the culture, the institutions on the right, they're not going anywhere.
Assessing the Extremes
Speaker B: 让我试着用,让我试着用你提出过的一些论点来重新构建这个问题。
Original English
Speaker B: Let me try to frame this more in terms of Let me try to frame this more in terms of arguments I've seen you making.
Speaker A: 好的。
Original English
Speaker A: Sure.
Speaker B: 如果我在逻辑链的哪一环弄错了,你告诉我。对。我认为你觉得你现在在种族主义右翼方面遇到了一个问题。我认为看着柯克被谋杀后阴谋论的接管,对右翼的许多人来说是令人清醒或害怕的。看到人们指责以色列是幕后黑手,最终看到人们指责美国转折点 (Turning Points USA) 或者他周围人的某种阴谋,我认为对于右翼的重要、重要人物来说,提出这些论点,在我看来,对你们很多人来说是一个令人震惊的时刻。然后我看着你和其他人,你知道,在X (推特) 和其他地方,看着你们的@提及……
Original English
Speaker B: And tell me if I get a chain in this wrong, you tell me where I will. Right. I think you think you now have a problem with a racialist right. I think watching the takeover of conspiracies after Kirk's murder has been sobering or scary for a lot of people on the right. To watch people accusing Israel of it, to eventually see people accusing Turning Points USA of it or some kind of plot from the people around him, I think has been for major major figures on the right to be making those arguments has seemed to me to be a kind of shocking moment for a lot of you. And then I've watched you and others, you know, on X and elsewhere like look in your mentions
身份政治与右翼青年
Speaker A: 然后会觉得,“哦,[ __ ]这里有很多种族主义。有些事情正在发生。”所以你告诉我,你不同意这其中的哪一部分。
Original English
Speaker A: and be like, "Oh [ __ ] there's a lot of racism here. Something's happening." So you tell me which part of this you don't agree with.
Speaker B: 是的。我的意思是,我是这么看的。你的大致分析是正确的。可以说,现在确实存在一个种族主义的右翼。关于这个问题我已经写了好几年了,但我认为其中很大一部分在某种程度上是一种视错觉,你在左翼也能看到这种情况,即在网上非常喧嚣的一小撮人,似乎代表了某个政治联盟或普通大众中比实际大得多的份额。所以,听着,我并不希望看到一个种族主义的右翼。对我来说,这是一个非常明确的立场。而且我认为,如果数字领域中冒出像反犹太阴谋论这样的东西,这就是一个我们必须应对的问题,对于那些不实之词或谎言,应该如实地予以揭露。在我看来,其核心在于——我曾和许多右翼年轻人交谈过。有时候,当我在华盛顿特区或其他地方时,我会和一些年轻人共进午餐或晚餐,我只是对他们说,“嘿,你知道,不妨跟我说说这些年轻人到底是怎么了,我们现在年纪大些了。你和我,我们都已经是中年人了。所以,跟我讲讲这些想法吧。”不是那种带有评判色彩的,只是帮我理解,那些更为激进或带有种族主义倾向的年轻男性到底怎么了。而他们给出的描述是这样的。他们说,你知道,这些小伙子是在疫情期间上的高中。他们几乎完全过渡到了一种纯数字化的生活,你可以陷入各种各样的信息茧房(兔子洞)中。他们成年的过程,伴随的是在乔治·弗洛伊德事件引发的狂热中步入成年,在学校里他们的老师、媒体机构、政府,所有人都在说,你知道,作为一个年轻的白人男性,你就是问题所在,你是压迫者,你是邪恶的,你应该因为你的生理特征、因为你的血统而被剥夺机会。本质上,他们被那种乔治·弗洛伊德式的狂热“编程”了,开始用种族的眼光思考问题。而我认为正确且恰当的应对方式应该是:我们必须超越这一点,我们要对抗这种无论是来自左翼、右翼还是任何地方的种族主义思维。但他们却在心理上屈服于此,只是把极性反转了。我不认为这是解决问题的好方法。我不认为在哲学问题上这是对的。我也不认为从实际政治的角度来看这是富有成效的。但在某种程度上,我能理解。我懂。年轻人处于一种正在成长且充满不平之气的阶段。我认为这极具破坏性。而在我看来,至少在我的政治联盟内部,解决这个问题的解药,是去扮演一个大哥哥的角色,去对他们说:“嘿,我能理解你为什么会这么想。但是,通往成功的真正道路是另一条。”所以,我不认为这已经是注定的。实际上我认为年轻人,你知道,他们的大脑还没有完全固化在自己的方式里。所以,你需要把那些感到沮丧的人引导向一条更好的道路。我认为像坎迪斯·欧文斯(Candace Owens)这样的人,她简直就是在把人们往沟里带,你必须把他们从那种状态中引导出来。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah. Well, I mean, here's how I see it. And your general analysis is correct. So there is a racialist right, let's say. I've been writing about this for a number of years, but I think a lot of it is something of an optical illusion where you see this on the left where a small group of people that is very loud online appears to represent a larger share of a political coalition or the general population than it really does. And so, look, I don't want a racialist right. That is like a clear position on my part. And I think to the extent that we have like anti-semitic conspiracy theories bubbling up from the digital sphere, it's a problem that we have to deal with, and of untruth or a falsehood that should be called out for what it is. And what I think it is at heart is that—and I've talked to a lot of young right-wing guys. So sometimes I'll have lunch or dinner when I'm in DC or elsewhere with younger guys and just say, "Hey, you know, kind of walk me through like what's happening for people, like we're older now. You and I are middle-aged now. So say, 'Hey, walk me through this thinking' and not kind of non-judgmental, just kind of help me understand what's happening with some of the more radical or racialist young men." And this is the description that they give. They say, you know, these are guys who hit high school during COVID. They transitioned into an almost purely digital life with all of the various rabbit holes you could get into. They came of age as a function of entering adulthood during the George Floyd hysteria where their teachers at school, their media institutions, the government, everyone was saying, you know, you're a young white man, you're the problem, you're the oppressor, you're evil, you should be denied opportunities because of your biology, because of your ancestry. And essentially that they were programmed by the George Floyd hysteria into thinking racially, and instead of what I think is the proper and the correct response, which is to say, we've got to move beyond this, we're going to fight this racialist thinking on the left, on the right, wherever it comes from, they essentially psychologically submitted to it, but then reversed the polarity. I don't think that's a good way to pursue it. I don't think on the philosophical question it's right. I don't think that from the practical political conception it's fruitful. But in a certain way it's like I get it. I understand it. Young people are, you know, kind of in a position of growing up and having a chip on your shoulder. I think it's extremely destructive. And what I see as the antidote to this, at least within my political coalition, is to be, you know, an older brother figure to say, "Hey, I could get why you think that. However, the actual path to success is this other way." So I don't think that this is like predetermined. I actually think that young people have, you know, their brain isn't locked in its ways. And so I think you want to bring people who are frustrated towards a better path, and I think that someone like Candace Owens who's just like driving people into a ditch, you have to kind of guide them away from that.
Speaker A: 那么,我认为这种说法首先是有一定道理的。我确实认为过去十年左右发生的事情之一——这也是我在我的第一本书《为什么我们会两极分化》(Why We're Polarized)中谈到的——那就是一种声音在急剧上升,告诉人们理解生活和美国的正确方式,完全是通过身份群体的视角。而当你告诉人们要审视身份群体时,他们就会形成一种更加连贯的自我意识。我在那本书里有一句话是:身份认同在受到威胁时会被激活。
Original English
Speaker A: So I think first there's truth to that narrative. I do think that one of the things that happened over the past decade or so—and this is, you know, something I talk about in my first book, Why We're Polarized—is there's a huge upsurge in telling people that the right way to understand life, America, is all through the lens of identity groups. And when you tell people to look at identity groups, they will form a more coherent sense of their own. And a line I have in that book is: identity activates under threat.
Speaker B: 确实如此。
Original English
Speaker B: Sure.
Speaker A: 所以,你越是告诉人们他们的身份就是问题所在,他们就越会开始捍卫那种身份,感受到那种身份,并开始围绕那种身份来进行自我定义。所以我觉得所有这些都发生了。而且我想你可能也会同意,你知道,那些机构、法律体系,以及在大学和公司等地方盛行的主流叙事,在很多年里都明确是反白人的,而这对于那些年轻人来说正处于性格形成的时期——
Original English
Speaker A: And so the more you tell people that their identity is the problem, the more they're going to begin to defend that identity and feel that identity and begin to self-define around that identity. So I think all of that happened. And I think that you would also agree perhaps that, you know, the institutions, the legal system, the prevailing narrative at universities, corporations, etc. was explicitly anti-white for a number of years that for these young people were formative...
Speaker B: 我认为有时候这已经演变成了反白人。我不会说它全都是明目张胆的。数百份来自各个机构、银行和公司的报告都在传递这种信息:白人男性很糟糕。如果你想用幼儿园级别的话来概括,那就是“白男坏”。这在体制内是占据主导地位的立场。我记得我曾对身边的人说,当人们发表像“白人特质的负面特征是什么”这种文章时,这简直就是一场灾难。是的。所以我并不一定不赞同这一点。我认为这其中有真实的成分。而且在法律上,平权行动(Affirmative Action)和多元、公平与包容(DEI)就是由政府支持的、针对某一个种族群体的制度性歧视。
Original English
Speaker B: I think it's sometimes moved into being anti-white. I would not say it was all explicit. Hundreds of reports on this from institutions, from banks, corporations: white man bad. If you wanted to just put it into kindergarten language, white man bad. That was the dominant position in institution. I remember telling people around me that this thing where people are putting out like papers on what are the negative traits of whiteness was a disaster. Right. So I don't necessarily disagree with that. I think there's truth to it. And legally affirmative action, DEI was institutional, government-backed discrimination against one racial group.
春田市与危险的政治狂热
Speaker A: 不过在这里我感兴趣的是,你现在掌权了,而且有很多——
Original English
Speaker A: So the thing that I am interested in though here is that you're now in power and a lot...
Speaker B: 就我个人而言,我住在华盛顿州的一个农场里。我个人并没有参与——
Original English
Speaker B: Personally I live on a farm in Washington state. I'm personally not in...
Speaker A: 你们的行政命令获得了通过,诸如此类的事情。
Original English
Speaker A: Your executive orders get passed, the whole thing.
Speaker B: 而且这些事情都有可能向更好或更坏的方向发展。这些都是美国社会中长期存在的能量。
Original English
Speaker B: And these things can all go in better or worse directions. These are all longstanding energies in American life.
Speaker A: 我要提出的论点是,为了坦诚地说明我的意图,我认为右翼的经验主义和认识论结构,以及他们为了获胜而养成的那些习惯,正在玩弄一种非常危险的狂热情绪。我来举一个很好的例子。
Original English
Speaker A: The sort of argument I'm going to make, to be, you know, cards on the table about what I'm doing, please, is that I think the empirical and epistemological structures on the right and the habits they took on in order to win are playing with passions that are very dangerous. Like I'll give a good example of this.
Speaker B: 当然。
Original English
Speaker B: Sure.
Speaker A: 关于海地人移民到俄亥俄州春田市(Springfield)这件事到底是好是坏,你可以有你自己的看法。那个城市的居民对此看法不一。我的意思是,市长和其他一些人非常支持,这对经济有好处,春田市曾处于衰退期,然后迎来了大量海地人的涌入。接着就出现了在2024年发生的这件事,说海地人吃猫和狗,一开始是一个Facebook的帖子,然后整个右翼一路向上直到唐纳德·特朗普都在一场辩论中开始采纳这个说法。你算是踏上了一场探求真相的旅程。而且,你知道,长话短说,也许在俄亥俄州代顿市(Dayton)确实有某个人,但他并不是海地人。
Original English
Speaker A: You can believe what you want about whether or not the immigration of Haitians into Springfield, Ohio was good or bad. The people of that city had mixed views on it. I mean, the mayor and others were very pro, and it had been good for the economy, and Springfield had been in a period of decline, and then you had a large Haitian influx. And then you get into this thing that happened in 2024 about Haitians eating cats and dogs where there's a Facebook post and the right all the way up to Donald Trump in one of the debates begins adopting it. You sort of go on a quest to try to figure out if it's true. And, you know, to shorthand a long story, maybe in Dayton, Ohio there was somebody who wasn't Haitian...
Speaker B: 没错。
Original English
Speaker B: Correct.
Speaker A: ……也许有人认为那个人吃了猫,但其他人不这么认为。某个人和其他人的看法,这是非常非常重要的。人们可以去读你的文章。他们可以去读Drop Site News的那篇报道。我不打算说服你,
Original English
Speaker A: ...who maybe somebody thought but other people didn't think had eaten a cat, that somebody and other people is quite, is quite important. People can read your piece. They can read the Drop Site News article. I'm not going to convince you.
Speaker B: 但是Drop Site News的那篇报道,他们本意是去揭穿我的报道,结果却找到了另一个独立的佐证证人。所以,
Original English
Speaker B: But the Drop Site News article, they went out to debunk my story and they ended up finding another independent corroborating witness. So...
Speaker A: 我不是这么解读的,他们也不是这么解读的,但在某种程度上,我甚至并没有把重点放在那上面。我想说的是,当你非常沉溺于这种操作,比如我们要去指控整个社区在吃猫和狗——我想我们都可以同意,海地人整体上并没有在吃猫和狗——你就会释放出各种形式的愤怒、仇恨和恐惧,而这些是无法控制的。我认为右翼犯下的一个错误,坦白说,也是像你这样的人犯下的错误,就是认为这些狂热情绪是可以再次被圈养起来的,这种想法认为,你可以找到这些极具感染力、像模因一样的高激情载体,然后你说,好吧,其实这里的真正问题只是我们想讨论一下,到底多少才是海地人移民到俄亥俄州春田市的合适水平,但是你让人们关心这件事的方式——JD·万斯(JD Vance)就曾非常直白地表达过——就是,人们真的很关心猫和狗。美国媒体之前完全无视了这些事情,直到唐纳德·特朗普和我开始谈论关于猫的模因。如果我必须编造故事才能让美国媒体真正去关注美国人民的苦难,那就是我要做的。
Original English
Speaker A: It's not how I read it, not how they read it, but I on some level am not even focused on that. What I'm saying is that when you get very into moves like we are going to accuse broad communities of eating cats and dogs, which I think we can all agree Haitians are not in general eating cats and dogs, you are going to unleash forms of anger and hatred and fear that are not controllable. And I think one of the mistakes the right has made and frankly people like you have made is thinking these passions can then be coralled again this idea that you can find these really high passion like mimemetic containers that then you say well the real issue here is just we want to have a conversation about how much is the appropriate level of Haitian immigration into Springfield Ohio but that the way you get people to care about it JD Vance said this very explicitly is that well people really care about the cats and dogs. The American media totally ignored this stuff until Donald Trump and I started talking about cat memes. If I have tome create stories so that the American media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people then that's
政治话语与极端化趋势的辩论
Speaker A: 接下来我要做的是,Dana,因为你们完全是在放任卡玛拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)蒙混过关。再说一次,我的观点是,从来没有任何确凿的证据表明俄亥俄州斯普林菲尔德(Springfield, Ohio)的海地社区发生过那样的事情。比如,没有人证实过这一点,你也没有。
Original English
Speaker A: What I'm going to do Dana because you guys are completely letting Kla Harris coast. Um, which again I think my view is that there's never been any hard evidence of that happening in the Haitian community in Springfield, Ohio. Like nobody has substantiated that and nor have you.
Dana: 没错。是的。我并没有提出那个主张。事实上,我曾说过,看,没有证据支持这个特定的说法。我们应该更加小心。
Original English
Dana: Correct. Yeah. I haven't made that. And in fact, I've said look, there's no evidence of this particular claim. We should be more careful.
Speaker A: 所以,一直存在这样一种想法,那就是你可以释放出,我认为是非常可怕的激情,然后再将其控制在一个可控的水平。而你在坎迪斯·欧文斯(Candace Owens)身上看到的,在新的塔克·卡尔森(Tucker Carlson)或旧的塔克·卡尔森身上看到的——不管你怎么称呼它,在尼克·富恩特斯(Nick Fuentes)以及尼克·富恩特斯的崛起中看到的——我们还没有真正谈论过他,但我认为在我们思考这个问题的方式中,他是一个必须提及的人物——那就是,其实没有办法阻止那种趋势。一旦人们开始朝着那个方向移动,而又没有足够强大和受人尊敬的机构来阻止它,当你在谈论右翼变成一个第三世界点击农场时,它所走向的那个地方是非常危险且相当残酷的。现在,我让你说出你所想的一切。
Original English
Speaker A: And so there's been a a kind of consistent like the this idea that you could unleash like really I think quite terrible passions and then hold it to a level that that is controllable. And what you're seeing with Candace Owens, what you're seeing with the new Tucker Carlson or the old Tucker Carlson, however you want to call it, what you're seeing with Nick Fuentes and the rise of Nick Fuentes, who we've not really talked about, but I think is a a a necessary figure of thinking uh in the way we think about this, is that there wasn't a way to stop that move. like once people began to move in that direction and there weren't sort of institutions that were strong enough and respected enough to to stop it that the place it's going on the right when you talk about it becoming a third world click farm is quite dangerous and quite grim and now I will let you say everything you think
Dana: 好吧,天哪,好吧,我该从哪里开始呢?有几个巨大的问题。我给了你很多空间,这有几个巨大的问题。我的意思是,其中之一就是,你知道的,我目前正在加州做报道,那里有一些报道具有类似的,我们称之为“冲击力”的价值。举个例子,我们做了一篇关于从墨西哥和洪都拉斯来到旧金山的移民的报道,他们在加州州立医疗系统中获得了免费的变性手术。这是一种具有爆炸性的真实报道,我认为它反映了许多关于无家可归政策、关于移民等深层次的问题。听着,如果它是真实的,那就是公平的竞争。有一种以负责任的方式处理这些报道的方法,那就是你确保事实的准确性,公平地呈现它,并且你把它作为改变公众舆论的一种方法。它的运作方式本该如此。所以,我认为那种认为存在不可逾越的禁忌,因为它们会释放出那些不明确的或模糊的危险激情的想法,我认为这是一个问题,体现在两个方面。一是,如果你在寻求真相,如果你在玩一种负责任的修辞游戏,那么不,我根本不认为这些问题是越界的。但第二点,预测总是这样的,你知道的,它会释放出某种可怕的本土主义暴力情绪等等。但是,我们今天讨论过的受意识形态驱动的暗杀的唯一例子是查理·柯克(Charlie Kirk)的暗杀。这种关于政治暴力的预言,实际上是来自于左翼的制度性意识形态,而不是右翼的制度性意识形态。而且我认为,在过去的这几年里,这个事实已经被一遍又一遍、一遍又一遍地强调了。听着,像我们这些在右翼从事这个行业的人,你知道,可能必须更加坚定地说,不,在这场争论中,事实并不在你们这边。
Original English
Dana: well oh man all right where do I start couple couple huge problems I gave you a lot a couple a couple huge problems I mean one is that you know and and I'm doing reporting in California right now that has uh that has stories that have a similar kind of let's say shock value. For example, we did a story on um migrants from Mexico and Honduras who come to San Francisco and get free sex change surgeries from the California state uh medical system. This is a kind of explosive story that is true that represents I think a lot of these underlying questions about homelessness policy about immigration etc. Look, if it's true, it's fair game. And there's a way to handle these stories in a responsible way, that you ensure the facts, that you present it fairly, and that you uh use it as a method of changing public opinion. Like, that's how it's supposed to work. And and so I I I think that the idea that there are taboos uh uh that that cannot be crossed because they will unleash uh these these kind of unspecified or vague dangerous passions. I think it's pro is is a problem in in two regards. one is that if you're if you're going for truth seeeking, if you're going if you're playing a a kind of responsible rhetorical game, um no, I don't think that these questions are out of bounds at all. Um but second, the predictions have always been um you know that it's going to unleash some kind of horrible nivist violence sentiment, etc. And but the only example of of an ideologicaldriven assassination that we've talked about today is the assassination of Charlie Kirk. The this kind of prophecy of political violence is is really comes uh from the institutional ideologies on the left, not the institutional ideologies on the right. Um and I think that I that that fact has been hammered home over and over and over these last few years. Um and and look like those of us on the right who who who are in this business. Um you know probably have to have like uh you know a little bit more firmness to say no the facts are not on this on your side in this argument.
Speaker A: 那么让我具体说明一下我所说的话,因为我并不是在对政治暴力进行模糊的预言。而且我也不是说有这些你不应该触碰的禁忌。我认为我们的分歧在于,这里实际上并没有在寻求真相。这些论点中没有足够的真相。这其中有太多的吸引力。
Original English
Speaker A: So let me be more specific about what I'm saying because I'm not making a vague prophecy of political violence. Um and I'm also not saying that there are these taboos you shouldn't touch. I think where I'm disagreeing is to say that there actually isn't truth seeeking here. There isn't enough truth in these arguments. There's too much of an attraction.
Dana: 哪些论点?
Original English
Dana: Which arguments?
Speaker A: 就是,我的意思是像海地人吃猫和狗这样的论点。我们稍后再谈其他的。我所担心的那件事已经到来了,对吧?我指的不是一个我不明确的未来,在那个未来里我担心右翼会越来越被阴谋论的、种族主义的、厌女的元素所接管。我看到的是一个尼克·富恩特斯成为美国右翼主要人物的世界。
Original English
Speaker A: So the and it I mean arguments like the Haitian cats and dogs. We'll talk we'll talk about others in a second. Um and that the thing I'm worried about has arrived, right? I'm not talking about an unspecified future in which I am concerned the right will increasingly be taken over by conspiratorial um racist misogynistic elements. I'm looking at a world where Nick Fuentes is a major figure on the American right.
Dana: 好吧,你们在提升他的知名度方面做得非常出色。
Original English
Dana: Well, you guys are doing a great job at at at at raising his profile.
Speaker A: 塔克·卡尔森是那个提升了他知名度的人,我认为这是一个错误。我认为可以合理地说塔克是右翼媒体中最重要的人物,而他邀请了尼克·富恩特斯,并给了他一次如此温和亲切的采访。关于塔克,有一点我不会低估。他[哔]太棒了。他是个优秀的采访者。作为媒体人物,他有着令人难以置信的天赋。如果他想把那个人撕碎,他本可以做到。就像他当年想对迈克·哈克比(Mike Huckabee)那样,或者想对泰德·克鲁兹(Ted Cruz)那样。
Original English
Speaker A: Tucker Carlson is a guy who raised his profile, which I think was a mistake. I think it is legitimate to say Tucker is the biggest figure in right-wing media and he brought on Nick Fundes because and gave him such a gentle kind interview. And Tucker, here's one thing I don't underestimate with Tucker. He's [ __ ] good. He's a good interviewer. He is incredible talent as a media figure. If he wanted to cut that guy apart, he could have. As he did to Mike Huckabe when he wanted to do that or to Ted Cruz when he wanted to do that.
Dana: 那些祝福以色列的将蒙福,那些咒诅以色列的将被咒诅。从我的角度来看,我希望成为蒙福的一方。
Original English
Dana: Those who bless Israel will be blessed and those who curse Israel will be cursed. And from my perspective, I want to be on the blessing side of things.
Speaker A: 哦,那些祝福以色列政府的人,
Original English
Speaker A: Oh, the those who bless the government of Israel,
Dana: 上面写的是那些祝福以色列的人。没有说是它的政府,说的是以色列这个国家。这是在《圣经》里的。作为一个基督徒,我相信这一点。
Original English
Dana: those who bless Israel is what it says. Doesn't say the government of it says the nation of Israel. So that's in the Bible. As a Christian, I believe that.
Speaker A: 那是在哪里?
Original English
Speaker A: Where is that?
Dana: 我可以找给你看。那段经文没有就在我嘴边。你拿出手机查一下,
Original English
Dana: I I can find it to you. I I don't have the the scripture off the tip of my You pull out the phone and use the
Speaker A: 在《创世记》里。但所以你只是在引用一句圣经短语。你不了解它的语境,也不知道它在《圣经》的哪个位置,但这就像是你的神学。我感到很困惑。
Original English
Speaker A: It's in Genesis. But so you're quoting a a Bible phrase. You don't have context for it and you don't know where in the Bible it is, but that's like your theology. I'm confused.
Speaker A: 他之所以没有那么做,是因为我认为塔克非常清楚激情在哪里,能量在哪里。当我听到你说话时,有时我听到你对此感到更担忧。你在这方面稍微冷静一些。我承认你现在是在《纽约时报》的播客录音室里接受采访,但我是在说,我实际上认为这种平衡是不对的。我认为一段时间以来,人们一直,你知道,唐纳德·特朗普本人就是这方面的王者。有一种观点认为,要认真对待他,但不是字面意义上的。是的。他说出的话可能站不住脚。我希望你能给我提供更多一些实质内容,因为我在想,你究竟在说什么,我会给你一点提示。
Original English
Speaker A: And he didn't because I think Tucker understands quite well where the passions are and where the energy is. And I when I hear you sometimes I hear you being more concerned about this. You're a little chiller in in in this. And I recognize you're talking to, you know, in a New York Times podcast studio, but what I'm saying is I actually don't think the balance is right. That I think for some time people have been, you know, and Donald Trump himself is like the king of this. There's a view to, you know, it's the old take him seriously, not literally view that. Yeah. The thing that is being said maybe doesn't hold up. I'm hoping that you can give me a little bit more though because I'm I'm saying well what are you actually saying I'll give I'll give you a little bit
Dana: 是在一个播客上,我的意思是,
Original English
Dana: was on a podcast I mean
Speaker A: 你是说尼克·富恩特斯现在不是一个大人物,并且在右翼的年轻人中没有影响力吗?你真的会提出那样的论点吗?
Original English
Speaker A: are you saying Nick Fuentes is not a big figure now and is not influential among young people on the right is that really would you really make that argument
Dana: 不,我会提出一个稍微不同的论点。我认为尼克·富恩特斯在根本上不是一个政治人物。他是一个奇观中超真实的代表人物,这也是,你可以去读一读我写的关于这个问题的文章。我认为他是一个坏的影响。我曾告诫右翼人士关于这种类型的人格,当一个人在视频中说,“我爱希特勒。”显然,我们不爱希特勒。我们都不是希特勒的粉丝,但你应该抵制这种被激怒、感到震惊的诱惑,从而失去你的理智和正确认知它的能力,因为这是什么,它是一个专为数字算法优化以收割注意力和点击率的超现实奇观。在那种意义上它实际上不是政治的。它并不是为了任何政治结果而优化的。我就是拒绝这种想法:你知道,一个愚蠢的孩子用肤浅的意识形态奇观劫持了算法,就因此被认为是象征着整个右翼走向的地方。
Original English
Dana: no I would make a slightly different argument I think that Nick Fuentes is not a fundamentally political figure he's a hyperreal figure of spectacle um that again is you can read my writing You can read my writings on on this on this exact question. I I think he's a I think he's a bad influence. What I've cautioned people on the right about that genre of personality is that when someone goes on a video and says, you know, I love Hitler. Obviously, we don't love Hitler. We're not neither of us are are are fans of Hitler, but you should resist the temptation to be uh scandalized and shocked and lose your capacity to reason and perceive it correctly because what this is, it is a hyperreal spectacle optimized for digital algorithms to harvest attention and to harvest clicks. It's not actually political in that sense. It's not optimized towards any political outcomes. I just reject this idea that, you know, some dumb kid that has uh, you know, hijacked the algorithm with um, like superficial ideological spectacle is somehow there therefore a symbolic of where people where the right is going as a whole.
Speaker A: 我认为“超现实(hyperreal)”在这个论证中所起的作用实际上与超现实的真正含义无关。我可以想象如果有人坐在我面前,即便是像2015年时更年轻、更英俊的我们坐在一起。
Original English
Speaker A: I think I think hyperreal is doing work in this argument that is not actually connected to what what hyperreal means. I can imagine somebody sitting in front of me, even sitting in front of me here in 2015 and us younger, handsomemer.
Dana: 是的。没错。是的。
Original English
Dana: Yeah. Yes. Yeah.
Speaker A: 然后你告诉我关于唐纳德·特朗普的这番话。
Original English
Speaker A: And you telling me this about Donald Trump.
Dana: 告诉我什么,告诉我什么。
Original English
Dana: Tell me what Tell me what.
Speaker A: 就是说,听着,你们太容易被激怒了。你们正在关注一个超现实的、受算法导向的、注意力经济的奇观,却把它当作是一股严肃的政治力量来对待。然后,也许如果我当时对于唐纳德·特朗普所代表的东西,以及那种超现实与现实即将在我们实际过的生活中融合的方式有更明智的认识的话。
Original English
Speaker A: That listen, you all are being easily provoked. You're looking at a hyperreal, algorithmically oriented, attentional spectacle and treating it like it's a serious political force. And then maybe if I had been wiser about what Donald Trump represented and the way in which the hyperreal and the real were going to converge in uh the life that we actually lead
注意力与政治奇观
Speaker A: 在这里,我本来会说不的。注意力是现代美国政治的基础货币。
Original English
Speaker A: Here, I would have said no. Attention is the fundamental currency of modern American politics.
Speaker B: 确实如此。
Original English
Speaker B: Sure.
Speaker A: 对于那些感觉从根本上就很荒谬的事情,我们实际上缺乏防御能力。这是一个充满捣蛋鬼精神的时代,而不是充满真诚能量的时代。像我这样的许多人,我的意思是,你可能还记得《赫芬顿邮报》最初只在其名人娱乐新闻板块报道唐纳德·特朗普的竞选活动。
Original English
Speaker A: Things that we have actually fewer defenses against things that feel fundamentally ridiculous. This is an era of the trickster spirit, not the earnest energies. And many people like me, I mean, you may remember this, Huffington Post initially would only cover Donald Trump's campaign in its celebrity and entertainment news section.
Speaker B: 是这样吗?我不记得了。
Original English
Speaker B: Is that right? I don't remember that.
Speaker A: 这是一个荒谬的超真实奇观,把它当成一件严肃的事情是荒谬的。我认为我们中的许多人完全愿意说尼克·富恩特斯(Nick Fuentes)是一个边缘的、荒诞派的人物。然后在塔克·卡尔森(Tucker Carlson)的时刻,考虑到塔克的走向,事情变得很清楚:这就好像有一条传送带在传递这些思想,它们从边缘地带走向极右翼,再走向稍微不那么极右的地方,最后走向唐纳德·特朗普。
Original English
Speaker A: A ridiculous hyperreal spectacle and to treat it as a serious thing would have been absurd. I think many of us were perfectly willing to say Nick Fuentes is a marginal absurdist figure. And then it became clear in the Tucker Carlson moment and given where Tucker has gone that there's like a conveyor belt of these ideas and they go from the fringe to the far right to the slightly less far right to Donald Trump.
Speaker B: 好吧,这就是我想要反对的地方。而且你实际上有一个现实世界的测试,对吧?这些意识形态媒体人物所玩的游戏与唐纳德·特朗普当时玩的游戏截然不同。你知道这一点,因为唐纳德·特朗普确实参与了这场游戏。他宣布竞选总统,并且在面临重重困难、反对许多现有机构的情况下赢得了选举。所以你得说,是的,特朗普也利用媒体,但这只是一个肤浅的比较。你必须问:实际目标是什么?对于那些主播来说,目标并不是通过立法,也不是赢得选举,不是为了拼凑出一个多数派,而实际上是一种自恋的尝试,为了获得个人的关注。所以,这就是终点,并没有一座实际的桥梁可以跨越过去。而且你看,这能否改变人们的思想?它可能会改变人们的想法,但你知道,并没有达到你认为的那种程度,因为人们更多地将其视为一种娱乐形式、肥皂剧或者性格戏剧,而不是一个实际可行的政治举动。所以,是的,我认为你有点把媒体奇观与根本的政治舞台混为一谈了。我认为那个边界并不像你暗示的那么容易渗透。事实上,在我看来,让那个边界变得更加清晰不仅符合我个人的政治愿望,而且对这个国家也更好。所以,当我看到在线右翼媒体和《纽约时报》都在为最新出现的某种右翼人物写吹捧文章时,对吧?以前是戴维·杜克(David Duke),然后是理查德·斯宾塞(Richard Spencer),现在是尼克·富恩特斯。这是美国政治话语中的一个老套角色,而我只是拒绝上钩而已。
Original English
Speaker B: Okay. Well, here's where I would disagree. Um, and you actually have a real world test, right? Um, these kind of ideological media figures are playing a very different game than Donald Trump was playing. And you know that because Donald Trump actually played the game. He announced for president and he, against the odds, against many of the institutions, he won. And so you have to say yeah, Trump also uses media, but that's like, you know, that's a superficial comparison. You have to say what is the actual goal? And the goal for like the streamers is not to pass legislation. It's not to win elections, it's not to cobble together a majority, but it's in fact to, it's kind of a narcissistic endeavor to get personal attention. And so, but that's the end point. There's no actual bridge that can go over. And look, can it change minds? And can it change people's politics? It could change minds, but like, you know, not to the extent that you think because people look at it more as a form of entertainment, soap opera, personality drama than an actual viable political move. And so, yeah, I think that you're kind of conflating the media spectacle with the fundamental political arena. And I think that boundary is not as permeable as you're suggesting. And in fact to make that boundary more explicit is better in my view for my own kind of political desire, but also better for the country. And so when I see, you know, when I see the kind of online right and the New York Times both doing like puff pieces on the latest kind of right-wing figure, right? It was David Duke and then it was Richard Spencer and now it's Nick Fuentes. This is a stock character in American discourse and I just refuse to take the bait.
边缘人物与制度性右翼
Speaker A: 我不认为戴维·杜克是一个边缘人物。我的意思是,我要说……
Original English
Speaker A: I don't think David Duke is a marginal figure. I mean, I will say...
Speaker B: 你不认为戴维·杜克是一个边缘人物?
Original English
Speaker B: You don't think David Duke is a marginal figure.
Speaker A: 我的意思是:我认为约翰·甘斯(John Gans)是一位非常棒的 Substack 作者,也是一位很有趣的、以历史为基础的美国政治理论家。他写了一本关于 90 年代的书,书名好像叫《当钟声破碎时》(When the Clock Broke)。我曾邀请他来谈论这本书,以及他关于戴维·杜克、帕特里克·布坎南(Patrick Buchanan)、萨姆·弗朗西斯(Sam Francis)等在那个时期崛起的一批人物的论点。他的观点是,如果你看看他们在政治上弄清楚了什么——顺便说一句,我们应该注意到戴维·杜克竞选过公职,他离赢得路易斯安那州州长选举并没有那么遥远。
Original English
Speaker A: Here's what I mean. Um, I think John Gans, who's a great Substack and is a sort of interesting history-based theorist of American politics. He's got this book about the '90s called When the Clock Broke, I believe. And I've had him on to talk about the book and the argument he would make about David Duke, about a bunch of figures who arose in that period, Patrick Buchanan, Sam Francis, is that if you look at what they were figuring out about politics... I mean, David Duke, by the way, we should note ran for office, he did not come that far from winning for Louisiana governor.
Speaker B: 是的,在 90 年代。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah, in the 90s.
Speaker A: 你知道,有一种政治风格,他们在那方面变得相当擅长摸索。甘斯的观点——我也同意他的看法——是,如今许多民粹主义右翼在很大程度上是不是就建立在那个基础之上,而且通常非常明确地与塞缪尔·弗朗西斯(Samuel Francis)等人联系在一起?好吧,说说你的理由。
Original English
Speaker A: You know, there was a style of politics that they got kind of quite good at figuring out. And Gans's view, and I agree with his: Is it much of what the populist right is today is built on that, often quite explicitly with Samuel Francis and others? Okay, make your case.
Speaker B: 绝对不是。我的意思是,你看,对于我们这些在制度性右翼中的人来说。我认识这些人,我了解这些人物,我知道这些组织,那个群体完全是个麻烦。没有人需要它,没有人喜欢它,也没有人相信它。事实上,正如我们最近通过关于南方贫困法律中心(SPLC)的揭露所发现的那样,那个群体不仅是左翼机构的一个有用工具,而且在许多情况下,实际上是由像 SPLC 这样的左翼民权组织秘密资助的。
Original English
Speaker B: Absolutely not. I mean, look, for those of us who are... look, I'm in the institutional right. I know the people, I know the personalities, I know the organizations, that figure is a pain in the ass. Nobody wants it. Nobody likes it. Nobody believes in it. And in fact, that figure, as we found out recently with the revelations about the Southern Poverty Law Center, is not only a useful tool for institutions on the left, but in many cases was actually secretly funded by the kind of left-wing civil rights outfit, known as the SPLC.
Speaker A: 我们刚才在谈论戴维·杜克。
Original English
Speaker A: Which we were talking about David Duke.
Speaker B: 不,不一定是戴维·杜克。谁知道呢?但我说的是……
Original English
Speaker B: Uh, not David Duke in particular. Who knows? Um, but I'm saying that...
Speaker A: 你是说戴维·杜克可能是左翼的卧底?是的,我觉得这太荒谬了。
Original English
Speaker A: You're saying David Duke is maybe a left-wing plant. Yes, I think that's ridiculous.
Speaker B: 我不是那个意思。我的意思不是说完全是由他们一手策划的,但肯定是受其利用的,对吧?整个想法就是一种抹黑效应:媒体会跑出来说这个坏人,你知道的,支持你的竞选活动,然后你就不得不去澄清并经历这整个一套流程。但我在这里比较感兴趣的观点是,我的看法——而且我认为这是一个相当普遍的看法——我的担忧是制度性右翼正在被碾压。
Original English
Speaker B: I'm not saying that. I'm not saying that in the sense of totally wholly created, but certainly used by, right? The whole idea was this kind of smear effect where the media would go out and say this bad person, you know, supports your campaign and then you'd have to disavow and go through this whole kind of routine. But the point I'm kind of interested in here is I mean my view and I think this is a fairly wide held view is my worry is that the institutional right is getting steamrolled like...
Speaker A: 轰的一下。是的。
Original English
Speaker A: Boom. Yeah.
Speaker B: 因为,好吧,第一,在许多情况下为了生存,它正在急剧改变自己的本质,比如传统基金会(Heritage Foundation)。
Original English
Speaker B: By, well one to the, in many cases in order to survive it is dramatically changing what it is like the Heritage Foundation.
Speaker A: 当然。
Original English
Speaker A: Sure.
Speaker B: 在其他情况下则是被唐纳德·特朗普碾压。唐纳德·特朗普并不是制度性右翼的候选人。如果制度性右翼能如愿以偿,杰布·布什(Jeb Bush)本来会成为被提名人。我的意思是,认为制度性右翼一直在取得一个又一个胜利的想法是荒谬的。我的意思是,共和党人换了一个又一个又一个议长,直到他们找到一个稍微更“听话”的人。
Original English
Speaker B: Um, in other cases by Donald Trump. Donald Trump was not the candidate of the institutional right. If the institutional right had its way, Jeb Bush would have been the nominee. I mean, the idea that the institutional right has been racking up victory after victory is ridiculous. I mean, the Republicans all speaker after speaker after speaker till they got one who was more like properly compliant.
Speaker A: 当然。
Original English
Speaker A: Sure.
Speaker B: 制度性右翼并没有强大的连胜记录。我在这里的部分观点重申一下,我认为这是因为它一直以为自己也许能够控制这些力量,但实际上它做不到。
Original English
Speaker B: The institutional right has not had a strong winning record. And again, part of my argument here is that I think this is because it keeps thinking it can maybe control these forces and it can't.
索马里欺诈案报道与资金流向
Speaker A: 你早些时候让我对某个报道说得更具体一点。所以,我想谈谈你在11月做的一篇报道。你写了一篇文章,标题是《青年党最大的资金来源是明尼苏达州的纳税人》(The Largest Fund of Al-Shabaab is the Minnesota taxpayer)。告诉我这篇文章讲了什么。
Original English
Speaker A: You asked me earlier to sort of be more specific on a story. So, I want to talk about a story you did in November. You wrote a piece with the title, The Largest Fund of Al-Shabaab is the Minnesota taxpayer. Tell me what the piece was about.
Speaker B: 没问题。这是我们在明尼苏达州进行的一项专题调查,主要调查有组织的索马里欺诈行为。我们花了几个月的时间在这篇报道上。我们去了明尼苏达州。我们查阅了法庭文件。我们采访了执法人员,包括公开采访和背景采访。当时我们的报道——在地方媒体和一些零星的报道中已经有所发酵——事实是,索马里诈骗犯正在剥削明尼苏达州和联邦政府的福利项目、自闭症项目、日托项目、医疗补助项目,并从美国纳税人那里掠夺了数十亿美元。而正是这篇报道真正将索马里欺诈事件曝光在了全国的舞台上。从那以后,就像你报道了一个爆炸性新闻时有时会发生的情况一样,它引发了一整场运动,真正开始审视美国公共机构中存在的大规模欺诈行为。
Original English
Speaker B: Sure. So, uh, this was a feature investigation that we did in, uh, Minnesota looking into organized Somali fraud. And so, we spent a number of months on this piece. We went out to Minnesota. We reviewed court documents. We interviewed law enforcement both, you know, on the record, on background. And then our story—and this had been kind of bubbling up in local press and bits and pieces—was that in fact Somali fraudsters were exploiting Minnesota and federal welfare programs, autism programs, daycare programs, Medicaid programs and looting billions of dollars from American taxpayers. And this was the story that really blew open the Somali fraud story on the national stage. And then since then, as sometimes happens when you report on an explosive story, it kind of ricocheted into an entire movement really looking at large-scale fraud in American public institutions.
Speaker A: 所以这里有几个部分。正如你所指出的,欺诈行为在其他地方,比如《明星论坛报》(Star Tribune)已经被报道过,并且也出现在了全国性新闻中。是的,有一些零星的报道。
Original English
Speaker A: So there's a couple pieces of this. So as you note the fraud had been, you know, reported elsewhere at the Star Tribune and it had been in national news. Yeah, there were bits and pieces.
Speaker B: 也有起诉,很多信息就是从这些起诉中得来的,这些起诉始于 2022 年拜登政府时期。你在这件事上所做的一个重大举动是指出这正在资助外国恐怖主义。那个论点是什么?
Original English
Speaker B: There were prosecutions, right, which is where a lot of the information came from that began in 2022 under the Biden administration. The big sort of move you made in this was to say this is financing foreign terrorism. What was that argument?
Speaker A: 没问题。我的意思是,这个论点非常简单,其运作机制是这样的。我们有数十亿美元被明尼苏达州的索马里诈骗犯窃取。然后我们有大量的钱被装在手提箱里,以现金(实际的实物货币)的形式,从明尼阿波利斯机场、西雅图机场运出,这些钱流向摩加迪沙,然后在摩加迪沙,它通过所谓的“哈瓦拉(Hawala)”网络被分发到该国的各个地区。哈瓦拉网络是那些非正式的、以现金为基础、以氏族为基础的金融机构的名称。他们在索马里没有强大的正式银行系统。那是一个比较混乱的地区。所以他们有这些专门运送金钱和现金的信使,而且各种智库、军方、美国政府、司法部、共和党人和民主党人……
Original English
Speaker A: Sure. I mean the argument is pretty simple and the mechanics of it are this. So we have billions of dollars being stolen by Somali fraudsters in Minnesota. We then have huge amounts of money being transported out of Minneapolis airport, Seattle airport in cash in actual physical currency in suitcases that goes to Mogadishu and then when in Mogadishu it is distributed through various parts of the country through what is called the Hawala network. Hawala Network is the name for kind of informal cash-based clan-based financial institutions. They don't have a strong formal banking system in Somalia. It's a rough part of the world. And so they have these couriers that move money and cash and all kinds of think tanks, military, US government, Department of Justice, Republicans and Democrats um...
索马里汇款与恐怖主义融资的争议
Speaker A: ……(我们)基本上得出了这样的结论:青年党(Al-Shabaab)正在从哈瓦拉(Hawala)的融资中抽成。因此,当我们与一直在调查此案的联邦执法探员和调查人员交谈时,他们告诉我们资金的流向是这样的:从纳税人那里流出,离开机场,装在手提箱里送到索马里的哈瓦拉网络,因此,也就是流向了青年党恐怖网络,他们从中提取分成,基本上就像,我们在索马里的某些地区使用Visa卡会收取大约3%的信用卡交易手续费一样,青年党也会抽成。虽然不能确切知道具体的抽成比例是多少。联邦调查人员表示,“听着,一旦这些钱离开这个国家进入哈瓦拉系统,你就无法把钱追回来了。那里没有,你知道的,没有任何书面收据或银行交易记录。”但是,那些来自欺诈的汇款资金规模是如此巨大,以至于随着时间的推移,我们谈论的是一笔数额惊人的巨款。
Original English
Speaker A: have made uh uh have have essentially made the case that Elshaab is taking a cut of Hala financing. And so when we talked with federal law enforcement a agents and uh investigators who have been working on this case, they told us that the flow of funds was this from the taxpayer out of the airport and in suitcases to the uh hoala networks in Somalia and therefore uh uh to the al-Shabaab terror networks taking their their cut essentially like v we have visa that takes like 3% of your credit card transactions in in parts of Somalia. uh al-Shabaab takes a cut. Not exactly sure how much that is. And federal investigators say, "Hey, once it exits the country into the Hala system, you can't claw that money back. There are no there are no, you know, written receipts or banking transactions." Um, but the scale of that money that was that was remittances from fraud was so enormous that over time we're talking about huge sums of money.
Speaker B: 那么,我想花点时间来探讨一下这是否最终被证明是真实的。所以,在你的报道中,关键的具名消息来源是一位名叫格伦·卡恩斯(Glenn Karns)的退休恐怖主义调查员。他后来公开声称自己被断章取义了。他后来表示这篇报道是[哔——](胡扯),并且他并没有在明尼苏达州进行过实地调查。明尼苏达州负责这起欺诈案的两位首席检察官表示,肇事者的动机是贪婪,没有证据表明存在恐怖主义融资。你、你现在仍然坚持你的观点吗?
Original English
Speaker B: So, I want to take a beat on whether or not this turned out to to be true. So the key named source in your story was a retired terrorism uh investigator named Glenn Karns. He later came out claimed that he was misqued. He said later the story was [ __ ] and that he did no on the ground investigating in Minnesota. The two top prosecutors of the fraud in Minnesota said the perpetrators are motivated by greed. There's no evidence of of terrorist financing. Do do you still stand by this?
Speaker A: 我当然坚持。是的。而且有几件事。关于格伦·卡恩斯这位警探的情况非常古怪。我们有他的录音记录。我们有,你知道的,他采访的文字记录。我不太清楚到底发生了什么。我的怀疑是,当这篇报道引起轰动,成为一个全国性的重大新闻时,他被吓坏了,或者是、或者是、或者是害怕了,或者是……但是你知道,明尼阿波利斯的报纸试图仔细审查我们的文章,并带着某种批判的态度,却未能找出任何破绽。没有,没有揭穿,甚至没有真正反驳我们的任何观点。嗯,你有,你知道的,一个谁知道到底怎么回事的消息来源,不知道,不知道他的个人情况。嗯,但是你知道……
Original English
Speaker A: Of course I do. Yeah. And a couple things. So the Glenn Karns uh uh detective is very odd. We have him on the record. we have uh you know a transcript of his interview. I'm not sure what happened. My suspicion is that when this story blew up into a huge national story, he got spooked or or or scared or or or uh but you know the uh the paper in Minneapolis tried to go through our piece and and with a kind of criticism couldn't lay a glove on it. Didn't didn't debunk or even really contradict any of our points. Um you had you know one source who who knows don't know what don't know uh his personal circumstances. Um but you know
Speaker B: 他是唯一具名的消息来源。
Original English
Speaker B: he was the only named source.
Speaker A: 他是……我不认为他是那篇报道中唯一具名的消息来源。
Original English
Speaker A: He was I don't think he was the only named source in the piece.
Speaker B: 他是唯一提出这种恐怖主义论点的具名消息来源。
Original English
Speaker B: He was the only name source making this terrorism argument.
Speaker A: 嗯,这不准确。所以,所以,嗯,我们有多位、多位证实资金流向的高级别联邦官员。我们用来自保卫民主基金会(Foundation for Defense of Democracies)、美国军事学院(United States Military Academy)、司法部的背景报告证实了这一点。我们只是在简单、合乎逻辑地说,如果我们从各种来源得知青年党正在从哈瓦拉网络中抽成,并且我们从各种来源得知资金正在通过该网络流动,而这些资金来源于在美国实施的欺诈行为,那么这就是一个合乎逻辑的三段论,对吧?A、B、C。所以,嗯,我们知道这是事实。而且我认为,因为他们的动机不是恐怖主义,所以这种说法……嗯,这并不是我们所指控的,而且这在本质上也是无关紧要的。事情发展的事实是,青年党恐怖网络从美国的欺诈案中获益,而这些钱通过了他们的金融系统。
Original English
Speaker A: Well incorrect. So so um we had multiple multiple highlevel um federal officials who confirmed to us the flow of funds. We substantiated it with contextual reporting from Foundation for Defense of Democracies, from the uh United States Military Academy, from the Department of Justice. We were saying simply, logically, if we know from a variety of sources that that al-Shabaab is skimming off the Hala network and we know from a variety of sources that money is moving through that network from fraud committed in the United States, it's a logical syllogism, right? A BC. And so, um, we know that this to be true. And I think that idea that because they weren't motivated by terrorism um is not something we alleged uh and is essentially irrelevant. The the facts as they played out um were that the al-Shabaab terror network benefits from fraud in the United States that has passed through their financial system.
从犯罪到更广泛的移民争论
Speaker B: 你的文章其实写得相当谨慎,对吧?我读过那篇文章。我仔细读过。你是对的,你并没有指控此举的目的是为了资助恐怖分子。但是,当你去推广这篇文章时,你的推文却是:“索马里人正在从美国纳税人那里窃取数十亿美元,并将现金寄回老家的恐怖分子。是时候让唐纳德·特朗普(@real Donald Trump)撤销所有在美国的索马里国民的临时保护身份了。是时候让他们回老家了。”我认为这里有两个或三个问题。
Original English
Speaker B: Your piece is actually quite careful, right? I've read the piece. I've read it carefully. And you're right. You don't allege that the point of this is to fund terrorists. Then when you sort of promote the piece, your tweet is, "Somalies are stealing billions of dollars from American taxpayers and sending cash to terrorists back home. It's time for at real Donald Trump to revoke temper protected status for all Somali nationals in the United States. It's time for them to go home." And I have I think two or three issues here.
Speaker A: 两个或三个。好吧,让我们一个一个来过一遍。
Original English
Speaker A: Two or three. All right, let's go through them one by one.
Speaker B: 是的,我们会讨论的。我们会讨论的。我会,我会把它们都告诉你。嗯,你提到有少数人,对吧?在犯罪。他们正在被起诉,对吧?起诉是在拜登任内开始的。这并不是那种被掩盖起来的、被纠正的事情。你们没有想出这个。你们不是自己发现的。而且他们,他们偷了很多钱。我的意思是,那部分是真的。至于将现金寄回老家给恐怖分子,正如你所说,你有一个更复杂的……
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah, we'll do them. We'll do them. I'll I'll give them to you all. Uh you have a limited number of people, right? committing crimes. They're being prosecuted, right? The prosecutions begin under Biden. This was not like a swept under the rug correct thing. You guys did not come up with this. You didn't find it yourself. And they are they were stealing a lot of money. I mean, that part is true. the sending cash tariffs back home. as you say, you have a more complicated
Speaker A: (引向)这篇文章,然后你就可以像你、你、你所使用的修辞那样……
Original English
Speaker A: to the peace and then you could like your your your rhetorical
Speaker B: 然后,然后,然后……据我所知,在做这件事的人中,没有一个是处于临时保护身份的,这仅仅只有大约750人,对吧?所以,这存在一种倾向,即声称这不仅仅是像一些罪犯,而是所有的索马里人;而且也不仅仅是因为银行系统薄弱而导致一些钱被诈骗,而是他们在资助恐怖主义;然后就是为了让唐纳德·特朗普驱逐那些与犯罪无关的人。
Original English
Speaker B: and then and then and then none of the people as far as I can tell were doing this were under temporary protected status which is only about 750 people right so there's this move to say it's not just like some criminals it's Somalis and it's not just some money is being scammed because of a weak banking sector it's they're funding terrorism and then it's to get Donald Trump to deport people who are unrelated ated to the crime.
Speaker A: 好的。所以,关于那个、关于那个特定的论点,有几点要说。这篇文章的重点从广泛意义上讲,提出了移民文化兼容性的问题。如果你像我们一样,与索马里文化专家以及研究索马里历史的人交谈,你会有清晰的感觉:嗯,在索马里,存在一种盛行的血缘和基于部族的文化,这是由于各种历史和社会原因造成的。而且因为在现代时期,索马里一直是一个中央政府软弱、中央政府备受争议的国家,所以有一种感觉认为,利用中央政府……嗯……是……是允许的。而且我、我认为,最根本的一点——这不仅让所谓的小自由派(small L liberals)感到非常不舒服,甚至对许多保守派来说也是如此——即事实上,所有的民族文化、所有的民族文化并不是平等的。事实上,由于移民是一个基于群体或基于国界的系统,你必须在优先考虑哪些原籍国移民的问题上保持谨慎。因此,嗯,我认为索马里在美国和其他地方,在这些指标上的记录并不好。你面临着教育水平低下、对福利的严重依赖,以及这些文化上的不兼容性,可以这么说。所以,我再说一次,在一个符合谨慎的国家利益的移民政策中,我会把索马里人排在名单的靠后位置。而且我认为这是完全站得住脚的。我毫无顾忌地说,美国的移民政策应该解决我们的、应该服务于我们的利益,而不应该仅仅是全方位的。
Original English
Speaker A: Okay. So, a a couple points on on that on that particular argument. So the point of the the piece broadly it raises the question of immigration cultural compatibility and if you talk to people with an expert in Somali culture as we did and the history of Somalia as we did you get the clear sense that uh in Somalia there is a kind of kinship and clan-based culture that is prevalent for a variety of historical and and social reasons. And because there is a has been a weak central government, contested central government in Somalia in the modern period, there is a feeling that exploiting the central government um uh is uh is permissible. And I I think the the the underlying point which is very uncomfortable not just for people who are small L liberals but even for many conservatives is that actually all national culture all national cultures are not equal. And in fact, because immigration is a group-based or national uh border-based system, you have to be prudent in which nations of origin you prioritize in immigration. And so uh I think the the the record on Somali in the United States and elsewhere on many of those metrics is not good. You have low levels of education, high levels of welfare dependency, and you have these cultural incompatibilities. let's say. And so again, in a prudent national interestbased immigration policy, I would put Somali's down uh lower on the list. And I think that's perfectly defensible. I don't have a problem saying that American immigration policy should solve our should serve our interests, should not just be omnidirectional.
Speaker B: 我要说的是,拿少数人犯下的罪行来说事,然后说这反映了整个群体的问题,并且你应该驱逐这些与此无关的人。像那样做是一件坏事,把你正在提出的这种更宏大的论点,与这种更具倾向性的观点捆绑在一起:“嗯,由于这个在索马里的[哔——]系统,一些流向那里的钱,可能会被青年党拿走”,来完成这个想法,然后,然后我会让你把它引向你想引向的方向。那就是,而且要……这就是我试图向你阐明的这个更宏大观点的一部分,那就是你没有让情感服从于理性,你、你在这里释放出的东西,首先将会真正伤害到那些什么也没做错的人,对吧?这些受到临时保护的索马里学生(stud-),我是说很多人,正如你所说,索马里是一个艰难的地方,许多人因为完全合理的理由逃离那里,而我们,你知道,尊重他们这样做,以及为了他们和他们的家人努力去创造更好的生活。就像他们没有做错任何事一样,我认为你其实确实相信,从你写过的许多东西来看,就像考虑个体的首要性那样。如果你想说我们的移民政策不应该偏袒索马里人。好吧,那很合理。
Original English
Speaker B: What I am saying is that to take a crime committed by a limited number of people then say this is something about an entire group of people and and you should deport these unrelated people. like that that is a bad thing to do and to yoke this sort of larger argument you're making to this much more kind of tendentious well some of the money that goes because of this [ __ ] up system back in Somalia can get taken by al-Shabaab to to finish the thought and then and I'll let you take it where you want to take it that that is and to to that's part of this larger point I'm trying to make to you which is that you are not putting like passion in service of reason you're you're unleashing things here that are like first going to really harm people who did nothing wrong right these Somali temporary protected stud I mean many as you say Somalia is a tough place many people flee it for completely reasonable reasons and we you know honor them for doing so and trying to make a better life for them and their families like they did nothing wrong I think you actually do believe from many things you've written in like the premisy of thinking about the individual if you want to say that our immigration policy should not favor Somali. Fine, fair enough.
Speaker A: 但是,但是我们的移民,临时保护身份是、是基于群体指定的。事实上,索马里人、海地人……
Original English
Speaker A: But but our immigration, the temporary protected status is is based on group designations. And in fact, Somali, Haitians,
Speaker B: 但是那些要走的人,是那些没有犯下这起罪行的人,对吧?我们在这一点上是达成共识的,对吧?
Original English
Speaker B: but the people are going who did not do this crime, right? We agree on that part, right?
Speaker A: 稍等。好吧,让、让我来、让我分几个部分来谈谈。所以,这里有几个事实性问题。你说少数人犯下了这些罪行。我实际上并不确定这是真的。而且我会、而且我、而且我会解释一下……嗯,我为什么这么认为。如果你去看看索马里人实际实施的欺诈计划,例如,在自闭症服务方面,你会发现索马里社区的成员开设了伪造的诊所,招收了伪造的病人,这些病人正在接受,你知道的,某种伪造的治疗。而且,嗯,我们正在关注的……
Original English
Speaker A: Hold on. Well, let let me take it let me take it in pieces. So, a couple kind of factual problems here. You said a limited number of people committed these crimes. I'm actually not sure that that's true. And I'll and I and I'll explain it uh why I believe that. If you look at the actual schemes committed by Somali, for example, for autism services, you had members of the Somali community opening up fake clinics with fake patients that were receiving, you know, kind of fake treatment. And uh what we're looking
The Scale of Fraud and Community Complicity
Speaker A: 事实上,有相当一部分人在这些欺诈计划展开时就参与其中或知情,因为这涉及到成千上万的病人,你知道的,很多大家庭。其次,检察官一遍又一遍地告诉我们:“我们看到的只是冰山一角。我们没有足够的检察官。我们没有足够的调查员。我们没有足够的人力去真正理清所有这些欺诈网络。”所以,姑且说一个相对可靠的估计中值是50亿美元。然而,他们只揭露了大概3亿美元的欺诈案。这就表明,绝大多数的欺诈资金实际上就这样从指尖溜走了。所以你所看到的——我认为,因为索马里社区在地理上非常集中,而且在血缘网络中紧密整合——我真的认为,这个社区中有相当一部分人是同谋或知情的。
Original English
Speaker A: ... is actually a non-insignificant number of people that were involved or had knowledge of these schemes as they were unfolding because you're talking about thousands of patients, you know, large, larger family sizes. And secondarily, prosecutors told us over and over and over: "We're just looking at the tip of the iceberg. We don't have the prosecutors. We don't have the investigators. We don't have the manpower to actually unravel all of these fraud schemes." And so let's just say the median estimate, kind of responsible estimate, is $5 billion. Well, they've only uncovered fraud schemes and maybe $300 million. And so that would indicate that actually the vast majority of the schemes were simply kind of vanishing through your fingers. And so you're actually getting what I believe is, uh, because also the Somali community is very concentrated, in geographically tightly integrated in kinship networks. I actually think you're getting the complicity or knowledge of actually a non-insignificant part of this community.
Speaker B: 大多数索马里人都参与其中了吗?
Original English
Speaker B: Are most Somali in of that?
Speaker A: 呃,我认为,我认为这很符合逻辑,而且我认为我们可以,呃,我们可以基于法庭文件、基于已犯下的欺诈总额,以及基于这些事情的组织方式,非常肯定地提出这个论点。然后你看,这是,呃,在明尼苏达州发生的大规模欺诈,现在我们在其他州也发现了这种欺诈行为。你知道,一位一直在调查此事的西海岸警探说,你知道,“我已经调查这事30年了,在我的经验中,有组织的欺诈团伙,呃,绝大部分是由外国国民和,你知道,来自移民群体的组织实施的。”所以……
Original English
Speaker A: Uh, I, I think it's just, it's just logical, and I think that we can make this, uh, we can make the argument, um, with a high degree of certainty based on the court documents, based on the total of fraud committed, and based on how these things are structured. And then look, this is, uh, mass fraud committed, um, in Minnesota, committed now in other states that we're uncovering. And you know, one West Coast police detective who has been looking into this said, you know, "I've been looking into this for 30 years, and organized fraud rings, um, in his experience, are committed, um, uh, to a massively disproportionate amount, um, by foreign nationals and groups of, uh, you know, and groups of originating from, uh, migrant groups." So...
Speaker B: 这是一个事实。这让人很不舒服。这确实让人很不舒服。
Original English
Speaker B: This is a fact. It's uncomfortable. It's uncomfortable.
Speaker A: 我没有,我没有反驳。我并没有反驳这一点。嗯,所以我没有,我自己没有针对这方面做报道,但是……
Original English
Speaker A: I didn't, I didn't argue. I didn't argue with that. Um, so I've not, I've not done my own reporting on this, but...
Speaker B: 但是等一下。接下来的问题是,我们在政治上该如何回应这种现象?所以我其实认为……
Original English
Speaker B: But hold on. But the question then is how do we respond to that politically? And so I actually think...
Speaker A: 好吧,我想谈谈这在政治上是如何得到回应的。唐纳德·特朗普做了你想让他做的事。他,嗯,他在感恩节那天在Truth Social上发了一条帖子,你称其为“标志性”的帖子……
Original English
Speaker A: Well, I want to talk about how it got responded to politically. So Donald Trump did what you wanted him to do. He, um, he put up a Truth Social post on Thanksgiving Day, which you called iconic...
Speaker B: 对吧?
Original English
Speaker B: Right?
Speaker A: 你是知道这事的。你曾称它为“标志性”的。
Original English
Speaker A: You, you know this. You called it iconic.
Speaker B: 呃,他在里面说,你确实这么说过。
Original English
Speaker B: Um, in which he says, you sure did.
Speaker A: 好的。让我们听听。他在里面这样更新道:“成千上万来自索马里的难民正在彻底占领曾经伟大的明尼苏达州。索马里黑帮在街上游荡寻找猎物,而我们善良的人民则被锁在公寓和房子里,祈求能被放过。”但,但这事后来有些变味了。于是,右翼网红尼克·雪莉(Nick Shirley)开始自己在明尼苏达州调查索马里人的欺诈行为。他开始去那些日托中心,敲门然后问:“嘿,这里有,这里有小孩吗?”然后那些女人们走出来,她们不会说英语,只是用奇怪的眼神看着他。嗯,我记得这个视频在各个平台上获得了大概1.3亿的播放量。它像病毒一样疯狂传播。但我想播放一个片段。你和理查德·哈纳尼亚(Richard Hanania)在一个播客节目里聊过这个,我觉得,我觉得你当时说的话很有意思。
Original English
Speaker A: All right. Let's hear it. In which he says refresh. "Hundreds of thousands of refugees from Somalia are completely taking over the once great state of Minnesota. Somalian gangs are roving the streets looking for prey as our wonderful people stay locked in their apartments and houses hoping, hope that they will be left alone." But, but then it kind of moves on from there. So then Nick Shirley, a right-wing influencer, launches his own investigation of Somali fraud in Minnesota. He starts going to daycares and like knocking on them and being like, "Hey, is there, are there kids here?" and these women come out and they don't speak English and they're like looking at him strangely. Um, this gets I think like 130 million views across platforms. It goes crazily viral. But I want to play a clip. You, you did this podcast conversation with Richard Hanania where you guys were talking about this, and I think, I think what you say is interesting.
Speaker B: 当然。
Original English
Speaker B: Sure.
The Role of Citizen Journalism and Institutional Guardrails
Speaker A(播客录音片段): “如果你仔细去分析尼克·雪莉的视频。嗯,这里面有两件事。首先,表面上看,他是在发声,他把聚光灯打在了一个非常真实的问题上,这是一种地方性腐败的形式,而他通过那种Z世代风格的、带有某种硬核探索色彩的YouTube视频制作方式,将其生动地呈现了出来。好的。它吸引了人们对一个真实问题的关注。它在推动政治朝着正确的方向发展,而且,而且我认为它总体上是有益的。不可否认,你对他这种做法背后暗藏问题的批评也是正确的。我的意思是,我不会发表这种结论性的东西,你知道,尼克·雪莉走进去,看到一栋楼是空的,然后就想当然地认为,哦,他们正在犯下7000万美元的欺诈案什么的。作为一个记者,作为一个必须经过事实核查、法律审查以及同行监督的人,我会闭上嘴,然后心想:‘哦,哇,老兄。你马上就要被起诉了,因为作为一个新闻调查过程,你说的这些话根本站不住脚。’”
Original English
Speaker A (Podcast audio clip): "If you look at the Nick Shirley video and you really dig into it. Um, there are two things happening. Okay. On the surface, he is raising, he's shining a spotlight on something that is very real, that is a kind of endemic form of corruption, and he's bringing it to life through kind of Zoomer-style YouTube kind of gonzo, um, uh, video production. Okay. It draws attention to a real issue. It's driving politics in the right direction, and, and it's I think overall beneficial. Granted, your, your critique of what's happening under the surface is also true. I mean, I couldn't publish, uh, the conclude, you know, Nick Shirley gets in there, sees a building as empty, and then assumes, oh, they're committing $70 million of fraud or whatever. As a journalist, as someone who has to go through fact-checking, legal review, uh, kind of peer scrutiny, I kind of clam up and I'm like, 'Oh, wow, man. You're gonna, about to get sued because what you're saying is just not defensible as, as a, as a journalistic process.'"
Speaker A: 所以,所以我之所以觉得这段话很有意思,是因为我觉得我们所讨论的两个方面都在里面体现了。你知道,这段视频的立足点并不稳。咱们就直说吧。有很多事情你不能直接跑过去说:“给我看看你的孩子。”所以当她们没有把孩子拉出来给你看时,你就说这是欺诈,说你们根本没有孩子。另一方面,你又会有一种矛盾的感觉,即虽然这可能不是真的,但它确实把人们的注意力引向了一些真实存在的问题。这与我希望政治发展的方向是一致的。它确实变成了一个巨大的议题。我们会谈到它会导致什么,而且我能感觉到这种张力。所以我想问,你是如何平衡这种矛盾的?
Original English
Speaker A: So, so the reason I found that to be such an interesting quote is it, I feel like both sides of what we're talking about are in there. You know, this video is not strong. Let's put it that way. That there's a lot you, you can't go and be like, "Show me your kids." So when they don't show the kids, be like this is a fraud, you don't have any kids. On the other hand, you have this like contrary feeling that, well, it may not be true, but it, it puts attention towards something real. It's like in line with where I want politics to go. It does become a huge issue. We'll talk about like what it, what it leads to, and, and like I can feel this tension. So I mean, how do you balance that?
Speaker B: 是的。我的意思是,首先,这是一个自由的国家。每个人都有第一修正案赋予的权利,所以,你不能因为说“我不喜欢它有这些原因”,就判定你不应该被允许这样做。但我认为,这只是右翼缺乏制度化的又一个例子。所以我想说的是,一个理想的,或者说,理想的结果或方法应该是,找到一个有魅力、有勇气、有好奇心的人,比如像尼克·雪莉这样的人,然后将其整合到一个机构中,建立起那些护栏,去完善和、和真正改进这个产品本身,然后将这种关注度用于富有成效的目的。所以,嗯,那会是理想的状态,我认为那是好事。但现实情况是,在右翼阵营中,媒体非常碎片化,而媒体机构,嗯,并不那么强大,也没有发展得那么好,而且在很多情况下,出于显而易见的原因,它们非常厌恶风险,因此,这就把一整个阵地都让给了一些个人。我甚至不知道尼克·雪莉算不算右翼。我不确定我是否会这样去定义他。我认为,嗯,这个故事恰好以这种特殊的方式落地了。但你会看到一些独立人士。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah. I mean, well first of all, uh, it's a free country. Everyone has a First Amendment right, and so therefore, uh, you, I, you can't say I don't like this for these reasons, therefore you shouldn't be able to do it. But I think this is just another instance, an example of the right being under-institutionalized. And so what I would say is that an ideal, say, uh, outcome or method would be to take someone that has charisma, that has courage, that has curiosity, someone like Nick Shirley, and then integrate that into an institution to put up those, uh, guardrails, uh, to refine and, and, and really improve the, the product itself, uh, and then to use that attention toward productive ends. And so, um, that would be like the ideal, that's the kind of thing that I think would be good. But the reality is that on the right, the media is so fragmented, and the media institutions, um, are, are, are not that strong, not that well-developed, um, and in many cases, uh, you know, highly risk-averse for obvious reasons, and therefore there's an entire territory that is ceded to people. I don't even know if Nick Shirley is right-wing. I'm not sure I would even categorize him as, as that. I think, um, the story landed in that particular manner. But you have people independent.
Speaker A: 她不是左翼。
Original English
Speaker A: She's not leftwing.
Speaker B: 姑且称他们为公民记者吧。我想有一段时间挺流行这个词的。人们曾经对公民记者寄予厚望。嗯,你知道,既喜欢公民,也喜欢记者。公民记者就是那种听起来在理论上很好,但在实践中却存在一些真正局限性的事物之一。事实就是如此。你能拿它怎么办?你知道的,这就好比,作为一个个人,我唯一的反应就是,你可以提出一种补救措施,一种关于补救的建议,但这超出了我的掌控范围。
Original English
Speaker B: Let's say citizen journalists. I think that was the phrase for a while. There was great hope in the citizen journalist. Um, you know, love citizens, love journalists. Um, citizen journalist is, is one of those things like it sounds good in theory, but in practice there are some real limitations. And so it is what it is. What are you going to do about it? You know, this is the kind of thing where as an individual, my only reaction is to say you can put out a kind of remedy, suggestion for remedy, but it's not within my direction.
Political Consequences and Repercussions
Speaker A: 我要问的正是这一点,不是把你当成一个个体,而是把你当成一个活动家、一个分析师,以及一个在政府里有影响力、能够对你和他的这些报道做出回应的人,而回应的方式就是,呃,在明尼苏达州部署大规模的ICE(美国移民及海关执法局)和边境巡逻队。这种部署最终,以及围绕它的冲突,导致了Renee Good和Alex Prey的死亡。明尼阿波利斯市计算出这些突袭行动造成的经济损失至少在7亿美元左右。Joe Thompson,明尼苏达州的代理联邦检察官,也是领导欺诈案调查的人。在你最初的文章中大量引用了他的话。在特朗普的司法部要求他的办公室调查Renee Good的妻子之后,他愤怒地辞职了。所以,我的意思是,对我来说,我看着这一切,我会说,这并没有带来什么益处。这简直是灾难性的。我的意思是,它损害了人们的生活。它导致了人员死亡。它对明尼苏达州的经济造成了打击。而且,它导致了对欺诈案的调查被,你知道的,完全边缘化了。嗯,而那个推动调查的人也辞职了,所以这并没有朝着一个好的方向发展,部分原因就是它并非基于良好的信息。但就像现在这样,回顾整件事情,你不同意这个看法吗?
Original English
Speaker A: That's the thing I'm asking, not as an individual, but as an activist and an analyst and somebody influential in the administration that responds to these stories, yours, his, by, uh, deploying a giant ICE and Border Patrol deployment to Minnesota. That deployment ultimately and the fighting around it leaves Renee Good and Alex Prey dead. Minneapolis calculated the economic impact of the raids at, at least around $700 million. Joe Thompson, the acting US attorney in Minnesota, who was leading the fraud investigations. He was quoted quite a bit in your original piece. He resigns in anger after Trump's Department of Justice demands his office investigate Renee Good's wife. So, I mean, to me, I look at all this and I say like that wasn't beneficial. This was catastrophic. I mean, it, it harmed people's lives. It led to people dying. It was bad for the Minnesota economy. Um, it led to the fraud stuff getting, you know, completely sidelined. Um, and the person who was pushing it resigning, that, that this did not go in a good direction in part because it wasn't based on good information. But like now, like looking back at the whole thing, do you disagree with that?
Speaker B: 是的,我不同意。所以,所以,这么说吧,我会同意其中的某些观点,但我会修正它们并对其他一些观点持反对意见。所以,呃,我的意思是,欺诈调查工作仍在继续。副总统现在正主持一个反欺诈特别工作组。他们已经大幅增加了人力去……
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah, I would disagree. So, so, so, well, I would agree with certain points, but I, I would refine them and disagree with others. So, uh, I mean, the fraud work is continuing. The vice president is now chairing an anti-fraud task force. They've significantly increased the manpower to...
策略分歧与大规模驱逐的困境
Speaker A: ……审视欺诈问题。虽说如此,但在这种武力姿态下部署武力、海关与边境巡逻队以及美国移民海关执法局(ICE)的特工,是一个糟糕的战略决策。这是一个双输的局面。甚至从前一年夏天开始,我就建议不要这样做。所以在那个特定的案例中,我认为这是不明智的。我认为政府最终吸取了教训,他们重组了国土安全部,重组了海关与边境巡逻队。如果你想大规模驱逐非法移民,你必须以我所说的“无形的方式”、“非个人化的方式”来进行。你必须改变银行监管、金融转账、汇款手续费、就业核查等,以激励自我驱逐,因为认为你可以简单地派装甲车和ICE特工进去驱逐人们的想法是妄想的。这永远不可能发生。我认为右翼有一部分人想要那种充满男子气概的画面,但如果你看看你想要颁布的实质性政策,我认为这是有害的。事实上,明尼阿波利斯的情况也是如此,就那个意义而言,并没有达到既定目标,原因我和其他人都预料到了。
Original English
Speaker A: look into fraud. Um that said, like it was a bad strategic decision to deploy force, Customs and Border Patrol, uh ICE agents, um with that kind of force posture. Um it's a no-win situation. Uh and I was advising against it from even the previous summer. Uh and so in in that particular case, I would say it was ill-advised. And I think that finally the administration has learned that they reshuffled DHS, they reshuffled Customs and Border Patrol. And if you want to um if you want to um create deportations at scale of illegal immigrants, you have to do so um in what I've kind of called an invisible manner, an impersonal manner. You have to change banking regulations, financial transfers, remittance fees, um, uh, you know, employment, employment verification to, uh, incentivize self-deportation because the idea that you could deport, um, uh, people by simply like sending in, you know, armored cars with ICE agents on the side is is is delusional. It's it's never going to happen. I think there's part of the right that wants that kind of macho imagery, but if you look at the underlying substantive um policy that you want to enact, I think it's detrimental. And in fact, the the situation in Minneapolis um again, you know, in that sense was did not achieve the stated objective for reasons that that I I and others had had predicted.
Speaker A: 让我接着谈谈欺诈方面的问题。对我个人来说,这也很令人烦恼,因为我认为反欺诈是一个巨大的制胜议题。没有人想要欺诈。这是这个国家的一个巨大问题。如果你能专注在这个问题上,你不仅可以团结传统上主张小政府的共和党人,还可以把那些希望有良好治理的温和派民主党人拉入联盟。所以对我个人来说,我觉得这非常令人沮丧,因为这就好像,嘿,我们有这个制胜议题,专注于这个问题,大规模执行政策,为纳税人省钱。你把一份包装精美的礼物送给别人,你只希望他们能收下。然而在这种情况下,事情并没有那样发展。
Original English
Speaker A: Let me pick up on the the front. And and to me it's also it it's annoying to me personally because we I I think fraud huge winning issue. No one wants fraud. It's a huge problem in the country. If you had if you could just focus on that you could rally not only Republicans who are traditionally kind of you know uh small government but you could also bring into the coalition moderate Democrats who want good governance. And so to me personally, I found it very uh uh you know very uh very upsetting because it's like hey we have this winning issue, focus on the issue, execute the policy at scale, save the taxpayers money. Um you know you're you're giving someone a a g a nicely wrapped gift and you just wish that they would take it. Uh in this case it didn't happen that way.
特朗普与联邦反欺诈机制的瓦解
Speaker B: 我觉得对你们所有人来说,欺诈问题比这要大得多。根据《纽约时报》的分析,在特朗普的两个任期内,他宽恕了70多名因欺诈案被定罪的盟友、捐款人和其他人,其中包括从医疗保险和医疗补助计划(Medicare and Medicaid)中的欺诈性计费计划里窃取了13亿美元的菲利普·埃斯福尔米斯(Philip Esformis)。这是联邦调查局有史以来针对个人最大的医疗欺诈刑事案件。特朗普减免了他20年的刑期。
Original English
Speaker B: It feels to me like the fraud problem for you all is bigger than this. According to a Times analysis, across his two terms, Trump has granted clemency to more than 70 allies, donors, and others convicted in fraud cases, including Philip Esformis, who stole $1.3 billion from Medicare and Medicaid in a fraudulent billing scheme. It was the FBI's largest ever criminal healthcare fraud case against individuals. Trump commuted his 20-year prison term.
Speaker A: 你别想让我为他辩护。事实上,我会——
Original English
Speaker A: You're not going to get me to defend it. I I would in fact,
Speaker B: 但我也没有看到你真正抨击这件事。
Original English
Speaker B: but I don't see you really attacking it either.
Speaker A: 我现在就抨击它。
Original English
Speaker A: I'll attack it right now.
Speaker B: 好。
Original English
Speaker B: Okay.
Speaker A: 他不该那么做。事实上,如果这些人真的犯下了如此大规模的欺诈罪,20年似乎是一个很轻的刑期了。我个人会把它加倍。
Original English
Speaker A: shouldn't have done that. And in fact, you know, if if if these people were convicted of fraud at that scale, uh 20 years seems like a light prison sentence. I would double it personally.
Speaker B: 所以,这就是我所施加的压力,我知道你不会为此辩护,但现在的确右翼有一股专注于打击欺诈的运动。你在这方面起到了很大的引领作用。然而与此同时,我看着特朗普,他却掏空了整个联邦政府的反欺诈执法机器。他掏空了美国国税局(IRS)。在纳税申报中存在着大量欺诈行为,这是我们都知道的。大量的资金在这些名目下被窃取,因为现在的审计能力已经大幅下降。他解雇了整个联邦政府的监察长们,那些能看到这些机构内部情况的人。他摧毁了消费者金融保护局(Consumer Financial Protection Bureau),而该局做了大量反欺诈工作。
Original English
Speaker B: And so, yeah, this is the push I'm making, and I recognize you're not going to defend this, but there is this movement on the right right now to to focus on fraud. You've been very much leading this. Meanwhile, I look at Trump and he's gutted the machinery of anti-fraud enforcement all across the federal government. He gutted it at the IRS. There's a tremendous amount of fraud in tax returns. We all know that. And huge amounts of money are being stolen under those terms because now you the the audit capacity has gone way down. He gutted inspectors general across the federal government. People seeing what is happening inside these organizations. He destroyed the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau which did a lot of anti-fraud work.
Speaker A: 嗯,有待商榷。
Original English
Speaker A: Um, debatable.
Speaker B: 我承认我们可以就此辩论。但我认为不容辩驳的是,特朗普和本届政府确实是在系统性地对整个联邦政府下手,拆解了那些本应监督政府自身是否犯下欺诈,以及监督纳税人和其他人是否欺诈的政府部门。我看着现在的国家,我看到唐纳德·特朗普就像是在索马里搞海盗活动一样。我把特朗普和特朗普家族看作是海盗。我认为他们正在为了自己的利益掠夺这个国家。我认为那架卡塔尔飞机就是这么回事。我认为那些加密货币投资也是这么回事。我认为这就是特朗普及其家族将其净资产增加数十亿美元的方式。我不是说你支持这些,但我不明白,你怎么能认为你们会拥有一个能够实行良好治理、在制度上严肃对待这些事情的右翼,而最高层发生的却是这些。
Original English
Speaker B: I recognize we would debate it. What I don't think is debatable is that Trump and this administration have sort of systematically gone across the federal government and taken apart um parts of the government that are supposed to watch if the government itself um is committing fraud and if you know taxpayers and and and others are. I just I look at the country right now and I see Donald Trump has like you like using piracy around the Somali. I think of the Trump and the Trump family as pirates. I think that they are looting the country for their benefit. I think that that's what the Qatari plane is. I think that that's what the crypto investments are. I think that's how Trump and his family have increased their net worth by billions of dollars. And I'm not saying you support it, but I don't understand how you think you're going to have like a right that is doing good governance and that is taking these things institutionally seriously and have that be what is happening at the very top.
在不完美的世界中推进议程
Speaker A: 当然。让我们把赦免作为最具体的例子。是的,我同意。我想你我都会同意,我是关心政治的,但从某种意义上说,我并没有那种党派偏见。我不会去本能地为我阵营里的某个人或者美国总统的每一个决定进行辩护。事实上,那些赦免中有很多是不明智的,本不应该这么做。因为从我读到的报道来看,其中一些人也曾把钱投入各种游说活动和各种试图施加影响的尝试,以及各种竞选资金或委员会资金,或者不管这些财务运作是怎么搞的。你制造了腐败的印象,这是不好的,并且在某些方面确实削弱了打击系统性社会服务欺诈整体的良好工作。但从我的角度来看,我必须这样看待这个问题:好吧,你生活在一个不完美的世界里。你没有终极的控制权。我在我关心的事情上有很大的影响力,比如在多元、公平和包容(DEI)项目、在高等教育、在取消对美国国家公共电台(NPR)的资助等等问题上。你可以把这个清单列下去……
Original English
Speaker A: Sure. And let's take let's take pardons as the most concrete example. Um yes, I agree. Uh I think you and I would agree and you know I I'm political but in a sense not partisan in that way. I'm not going to reflexively defend every decision by someone in my camp or the president of the United States. And in fact a lot of those pardons um ill advised shouldn't have done it. And because in the reporting that I've read, a number of those individuals had also been putting money into various lobbies and various uh attempts to influence and various, you know, campaign funds or committee funds or however the the finances work. um you create the the a perception of corruption uh that is not good and does in some ways uh undercut the uh the the good work of combating systematic social service fraud as a whole. But from my point of view and how I have to look at it is okay, you live in an imperfect world. Uh you don't have ultimate control. My influence is great on the things I care about on DEI, on higher education, defunding NPR, whatever. Like go down the list of of of uh
Speaker B: 你在这些方面非常有影响力。
Original English
Speaker B: you've been very influential of
Speaker A: 但是,你这种批评隐含的前提——再次强调,我非常认真地对待这个批评,而且我认为这是一个公平的批评——这隐含的前提是,哦,因此你应该放弃。你应该转而反对正在做的好工作。就好像它因为这边发生的一些事情而被抵消或失效了一样。我个人的原则是,在需要批评的地方,我会提出批评,但我不会停止在我拥有的那一小块影响力领域里做有益的工作。所以,我是在走一条平衡木,在必要的时候我会提出批评。如果这在某种程度上削弱了我的影响力,我愿意接受。虽然我肯定会出声反对——我认为加密货币那件事简直就是……
Original English
Speaker A: but the the the the kind of the implicit premise of of your criticism, which again I I take seriously and I and I think it's a fair criticism, is oh therefore, you know, you you you should give up. You should turn against the good work that's being done. it's kind of canceled out or invalidated because of something that's happening over here. And my personal policy is where there's where there's necessary criticism, I'll create I'll give the criticism, but I'm not going to stop to work in that little sphere of influence that I have to do good. And so, you know, I'm kind of walking the line, right, where I will issue the criticism as necessary. And if that reduces my influence in a certain regard, I'm willing to accept it. And uh while I would certainly, you know, uh speak out against uh I think the crypto thing was was was just, you know,
Speaker B: 而且现在还在继续。
Original English
Speaker B: and it is ongoing.
Speaker A: 还在继续。是的。
Original English
Speaker A: It's ongoing. Yeah.
Speaker B: 他们的加密货币把戏还在继续。世界自由金融(World Liberty)还有所有这些东西都在继续。
Original English
Speaker B: Their crypto plays are ongoing. World Liberty and all this stuff is ongoing.
Speaker A: 确实。是的。所以说到底,当我在每天早上7点30分坐在办公室里的时候,我会想:好吧,我们怎么才能赢?我们怎样才能推动事情向前发展?我们怎样才能制定好的政策?归根结底,这是我所能控制的全部,而这也是我带入这场战斗的态度。
Original English
Speaker A: Sure. Yeah. and and uh and and at the end of the day when I you know when I sit down in my office uh you know at 7:30 a.m. every morning I'm like all right how can we win? How can we move the ball forward? How can we do good policy? And ultimately at the end of the day that's all that's within my control and and that's the that's the attitude that I bring to the fight.
关于右翼制度标准的交锋
Speaker B: 我觉得你低估了你自己。我所表达的观点,我向你解释一下,我表达的观点其实甚至比你的范围还要大一点。听着,我之所以邀请你来进行这次对话,其中一个原因是我认为你在自己所做的事情上非常非常出色。我认为你可能是这个时代最成功的活动家,当然是最成功的右翼活动家。
Original English
Speaker B: I think you underestimate yourself. The the point I'm making is I'll explain it to you. I will the point I'm making is actually a little bit even larger than you. Um, look, the one reason I have you here for this conversation is I think you're very very good at what you do. I think you're probably the most successful activist, certainly right-wing activist of this era,
Speaker A: 也许你其实是想说,整体而言最成功的。
Original English
Speaker A: but maybe overall you're saying,
Speaker B: 呃?
Original English
Speaker B: huh?
Speaker A: 也许是整体最成功的。也许在左右翼中都是。
Original English
Speaker A: Maybe overall. Maybe left and right in general.
Speaker B: 也许吧。也许吧。对。
Original English
Speaker B: Maybe. Maybe. Right.
Speaker A: 那我接受这个评价。
Original English
Speaker A: I'll take it.
Speaker B: 而且你看,你和我不可能在所有事情上都达成一致,对吧?我的目的不是要让你皈依我的政治立场。我不会那么做的。
Original English
Speaker B: And look, you and I are not going to agree on a million things, right? My point is not to convert you to my politics. I'm not going to do that.
Speaker A: 你应该试试。我是说,为什么不呢?我就在努力让你皈依。
Original English
Speaker A: You should try. I mean, why not? I'm trying to convert you.
Speaker B: 听着,我们在交流。但是我认为,右翼无法让自己坚守特定的认识论或制度标准——我们先不称之为中立性,我们就叫它在制度层面、在联邦政府层面的公正性标准吧。在我看来,右翼对唐纳德·特朗普所作所为的接受简直是疯狂的。
Original English
Speaker B: Listen, we we talk. Um, but I think that the rights inability to hold itself to certain epistemological or institutional standards, standards of, let's not call it neutrality, let's call it impartiality at the institutional level, at the federal government level. What the right is accepting that Donald Trump is doing is insane in my view.
Speaker A: 好吧?
Original English
Speaker A: Okay?
Speaker B: 认识论标准以及尼克·雪莉(Nick Shirley)的事情是……
Original English
Speaker B: and the epistemological standards and Nick Shirley stuff is
右翼内部的问题与挑战
Speaker A: 在我看来,你的一些事情又回到了原点,我认为你在主体部分很谨慎,但在推广和将其武器化时并不总是如此。
Original English
Speaker A: ...and some of your things in my view which go again I think you're careful in like the body and then not always in the promotion and the weaponization of it.
Speaker B: 你觉得我对……很谨慎。
Original English
Speaker B: ...careful in the...
Speaker A: 我认为这些是站得住脚的,但你觉得我把修辞上的辞藻用得太过分了。
Original English
Speaker A: I think that are defensible, but you think I take the rhetorical flourish too far as...
Speaker B: 并且除了你之外,我认为存在一种普遍观点,即我们需要释放这些激情,有太多的话一直被认为是不可说的。我们需要确保我们能重新把它们都说出来。而这样做的结果就像一个液压过程,不是某种未来的结果,而是当前的结果:当我查看Spotify排行榜时,那些排在前面的中右翼人物已经变得高度热衷于阴谋论,你知道,出现了像富恩特斯(Fuentes)崛起这样的人物,以及“在这个国家我们需要一个强大的右翼”这种论调。
Original English
Speaker B: And then beyond you, I think there's a generalized view that we need to unleash these passions, there's been too much that has been unsayable. And we need to make sure we can say it all again. And the result of this is like a hydraulic process, not like some future result, but a current result where when I look at the Spotify rankings, the right of center figures on the top have become highly conspiratorial and you know there figures like Fuentes Rising and we need a strong right in this country.
Speaker A: 那么,我想问你一个问题。自2020年以来,是《纽约时报》的社论立场(是的,社论立场)向我的方向靠拢得更多,还是我向它的方向靠拢得更多?
Original English
Speaker A: I would so I'd ask you a question then. Has the New York Times editorial line, right, the editorial line, has it moved more in my direction since 2020 or have I moved more in its direction since 2020?
Speaker B: 我不确定你自2020年以来是如何转变的。
Original English
Speaker B: I'm not sure the way you have moved since 2020.
Speaker A: 我根本没变。
Original English
Speaker A: I haven't moved at all.
Speaker B: 好吧。
Original English
Speaker B: Okay.
Speaker A: 所以,如果以我为基准……
Original English
Speaker A: So, if I'm the baseline...
Speaker B: 所以我想你是说它向你的方向靠拢了。
Original English
Speaker B: So I think you're saying it's moved in your direction.
Speaker A: 当然。
Original English
Speaker A: Of course.
Speaker B: 好吧。
Original English
Speaker B: Okay.
Speaker A: 你看看那篇关于多元、公平和包容(DEI)的大文章,你知道,有社论作家说我在DEI方面是某种反面角色。
Original English
Speaker A: You look at the big piece on DEI, you know, you had editorialists saying that I was, you know, some sort of villain on DEI.
Speaker B: 我们达成共识吧。我们承认它退回去了。
Original English
Speaker B: Let's agree. Let's agree moves back.
Speaker A: 我们可以同意你赢得了一些战斗。我想说的是,在我看来,作为真正有良好记录批评自己阵营的人,右翼就如同……我曾敦促乔·拜登(Joe Biden),你知道,在当时对我来说那是极其危险的一件事。
Original English
Speaker A: Let's agree you've won some fights. I am saying that they're like the right in my view, right as somebody who I think actually has a good record of criticizing my own right, I pushed Joe Biden to, you know, when that was like a much more dangerous thing for me to do.
Speaker B: 同意。
Original English
Speaker B: Agree.
Speaker A: 呃,我写了《富足》(Abundance),这完全是对民主党治理的批判。
Original English
Speaker A: Uh, I wrote abundance which is entirely critique of democratic governance.
Speaker B: 我认为右翼目前的发展方向是行不通的,而且现在让我觉得有趣的是,我会看你的节目,我能看到你和你的联合主持人在努力应对这些问题。对吧?
Original English
Speaker B: And where the right has gone I think is not going to work and what's interesting to me about you right now is I'll watch your show and I can see you and your co-host wrestling with these questions. Sure.
Speaker A: 对,我认为你并不感到自在。但最终,我认为右翼面临两个它真的不知道如何解决的问题。一个是它的关注领域。
Original English
Speaker A: Right. I don't think you're comfortable. But ultimately, there's like two problems that I see the right having that it really does not know how to solve. One problem is its attentional sphere.
Speaker B: 是的。
Original English
Speaker B: Yes.
Speaker A: 是病态的。
Original English
Speaker A: Is pathological.
Speaker B: 部分原因是。
Original English
Speaker B: Parts of it are.
Speaker A: 有些部分确实如此。而且它在那里并没有强大的制度力量。第二点是,你不能挑战唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)。你只能说些他正在做的事你不喜欢,你知道,或者可能不完全支持,但唐纳德·特朗普就像太阳王,必须服从他,否则如果你对抗得太激烈,并展示了他的能力……
Original English
Speaker A: Parts of it are. And it doesn't have a lot of institutional strength there. Um, and the second is that you cannot challenge Donald Trump. You can sort of say some things he's doing you don't like, you know, maybe wouldn't fully support, but Donald Trump is the sun king and he has to be obeyed or you get if you go too hard and shown his ability to do it.
Speaker B: 如果你对抗得太激烈,你就会被排挤出去,或许再也无法翻身。而这两点正在容许大量糟糕的想法、实际的腐败,甚至只是制度性和非制度性的腐朽发生。我们所有人都会为此付出代价,因为现在我们都生活在右翼的治理之下。所以我对此非常担忧,对吧?我并不需要……我的观点不是你应该成为一个自由派,而是右翼……
Original English
Speaker B: If you go too hard, you get like pushed out in a way maybe you can't come back from. And those two things are allowing a tremendous amount of bad ideas of actual corruption of just the institutional and non-institutional rot to occur and like we're all going to pay for it because right now we're all living under right-wing governance. So I have a lot of worry about this, right? I don't need just like my point is not you should become a liberal but the right...
Speaker A: 确实存在一些严重的问题。我同意右翼面临一些严峻的挑战,而且这是普遍现象,对吧。不存在一个完全道德、高效、纪律严明的政治运动。每一个政治运动都会有一定的发酵过程,存在一定程度的内部冲突。你必须弄清楚如何解决争议、敲定问题。而我一直努力在做的事情,特别是在过去的,比如说一年半里——自从特朗普再次担任总统以来——就是把这些讨论中的许多放到明面上。而且我认为,尽管存在这些真正的挑战,右翼的认识论机器……有一些真正的盲点、缺陷和脆弱性。虽然特朗普的……那种高度个人化、极具魅力的总统任期,是建立在克里斯玛(魅力)之上的,而不是建立在法理或……传统之上的。你知道,这是马克斯·韦伯(Max Weber)关于合法性和权威性的三角形理论。现实情况是,既然如此,那我们就来解决它。这是我们需要进行的对话。这些是我们必须应对的问题。卡里斯玛式的领导力有巨大的好处。但它同时也……产生了一系列需要解决的潜在问题。但我认为所有这些都能被富有成效地解决。我认为负责保守派机构的人员,总的来说依然具有良好的认识论判断、直觉和态度。而且我认为,你知道,政治是向前发展的,而且我认为实际上,在你说的特朗普处于他的最后一个任期之后——取决于众议院的情况如何——这可能是特朗普总统任期里最后一个真正有效的时刻了。然后我们再去问下一个问题。所以现实是,你必须向前走。你必须在不完美的条件下工作。
Original English
Speaker A: ...has some real issues. I would agree that the right has some real challenges and this is universal right there's no entirely virtuous effective discipline political movement. Every political movement has a certain fermentation a certain amount of internal conflict you have to figure out how to resolve disputes settle questions and what I've tried to do especially in the last say year and a half since Trump has become president again is bring a lot of those conversations into the open. And I think that while there are these real challenges, the epistemological machine of the right has some real weak spots, some real flaws, some real vulnerabilities. While Trump's kind of highly individualized, charismatic presidency that is charismatic rather than legal, rational or traditional, the Max Weber, you know, triangle of legitimacy and authority. The reality is that, okay, then let's solve it. We this is the conversation we need to have. These are the problems we need to grapple with. The charismatic leadership has enormous benefits. It also creates a series of underlying problems to solve. But I think that all of these can be resolved productively. I think the people in charge of the conservative institutions still in general have good epistemological judgment intuitions, attitudes. And I think that you know politics moves forward and I think actually after you know Trump is in his last term if depending on how things go with the house this might be the really last kind of truly effective moment for the Trump presidency. And then we ask the next question. And so the reality is that you have to move forward. You have to work within imperfect conditions.
对右翼关于美德的批判
Speaker A: 我目前对右翼的一个批评——我对左翼也有我自己的批评,并且我已经谈论过很多了。但我认为,右翼喜欢谈论美德(virtue)却不坚持它,而回到我们之前讨论过的关于“目的”(telos)的问题,你的目的在很大程度上是关于克制激情并将其进行建设性的引导。有很多关于美德的讨论,但在右翼担任领导的人,其中非常明显地包括唐纳德·特朗普,往往并不具备美德。如果他们拥有足够的权力,这一点就会被忽视。如果他们的激情足够强大,那就可以。类似地,在信息领域,在关注度领域,有许多被玩弄的故事,它们在设计上——就像在模因上被建构的那样——是为了唤起非常非常基础的激情。那些故事如果其背后有真实的部分,往往要复杂得多。有一种观点认为,这可以被引导到正确的方向。但我认为正在发生相反的情况,事实上,那些克制的人在右翼的注意力领域里真的在失去阵地。因为这是一种持续的……你无法被听到,除非你现在也去玩这种极端武器化的、爆炸性指控的游戏,当然,其最终走向永远是导向反犹太阴谋论,就像书中最古老的心机手段一样。
Original English
Speaker A: One of my critiques of the right right now and I have my own of the left and I've talked about many of them. But I think the right likes to talk about virtue and doesn't insist on it and virtue to go back to what we were talking about around telos and your telos is very much in part about restraining the passions and channeling them productively. There's a lot of talk about virtue, but the people who are leaders on the right, Donald Trump very much included, are not virtuous often. And if they have enough power, that is looked past. If they have enough strength to their passions, that is fine. And similarly in the informational sphere in the attentional sphere there is a lot of playing with stories that are designed like memetically constructed to arouse very very very base passions. Those stories are often much more complicated if they're true beneath them. And there's a view that that can be channeled in the right direction. And I think the opposite is happening that in fact the people who are restrained are really losing out in the right attentional sphere because it's this constant you like you can't get heard if you're not now playing this game of incredibly weaponized like explosive allegations which of course is going where that ultimately always goes which is toward anti-semitic conspiracy theories like the oldest intentional move in the book.
Speaker B: 我认为你提出了一个非常重要的哲学问题,而保守派传统在这个问题上提供了大量优秀的辩论话语。问题在于:你有所谓的亚里士多德式美德或基督教美德,然后又有马基雅维利式的“美德”(virtù),虽然它们是同一个词(译注:指词源),但完全是不同的概念。对于马基雅维利而言,virtù,即政治上的美德,是关于如何获取权力、如何维持稳定,并且在他那本关于共和国的书中,是关于如何拥有一个繁荣的共和国的德行,这通常需要……狡诈、野心和设计。所以,政治始终是亚里士多德式的美德与马基雅维利式的virtù之间的对话。而你本质上是在协调手段与目的。有的人会争辩,尤其是学者们,甚至包括右翼学者:“好吧,我们需要有道义论的原则可以让你坚持,你知道的,手段必须始终百分百纯洁,以实现百分百纯洁的目的。”然后我就笑了。这就好比,嗯,只有学者才能真的……你知道的,提出这样一种观点。因为现实是,在政治中,这是一个不完美的世界,你总是在平衡手段和目的。你总是在衡量马基雅维利式的能力和传统的道德。所以你必须弄清楚这一点。你必须弄清楚自己在哪里个人能够感到自在,在哪里你能个人觉得你的工作是有正当理由的。然后作为一个整体的运动,这是一个不断的谈判过程。而且,你看,在我看来,政治领袖不是你的朋友。政治领袖不是你的……神父。你知道,政治领袖就是一种钝器。政治领袖是达到目的的手段。这方面没有简单的答案。没有立竿见影的答案。但我想要说的是,那些人是我的同胞,那些我每天与之一同并肩战斗的人,是具有高尚品格的人,非常聪明的人,是了解当下局势的保守派制度主义者,他们理解我们需要去实现某种目标。
Original English
Speaker B: You're raising I think a really important philosophical question and the conservative tradition offers a lot of good debate discourse on this question. The question is this you have what we might say Aristotelian virtue or Christian virtue and then Machiavellian virtù which is a totally it's the same word but a totally different conception. And for Machiavelli, virtù, the political virtue was the virtue of how to win power, how to maintain stability, and in his book on republics, how to have a flourishing republic, which often requires cunning, ambition, design. And so politics is always a conversation between virtue and virtù. And you're essentially reconciling means and ends. And there are people who will argue, academics in particular, even those on the right, well, we need to have deontological principles that you can make, you know, no that the ends, the means always have to be 100% pure towards 100% pure ends. And I laugh. It's like, well, only an academic could really, you know, make such a case because the reality is that in politics, it's an imperfect world and you're constantly balancing means and ends. You're constantly taking the measure of virtù and virtue. And so you have to figure that out. You have to figure out where you're personally comfortable, where you personally can feel that your work is justified. And then as a movement as a whole, this is a constant negotiation. And look, in my mind, political leaders are not your friends. Political leaders are not your priest. You know, political leaders are kind of blunt instruments. Political leaders are means to an end. And there's no easy answer there. There's no immediate answer there. But what I would say is that those are the people that are my compatriots, the people that I'm fighting every day alongside and along with are high integrity people, very smart people, conservative institutionalists who understand the moment, who understand that that we need to kind of deliver...
切实的政治胜利
Chris Rufo: 切实的政治胜利。我们不能仅仅退缩到抽象的推测中。你看,我们正在参与这场游戏,在我看来,这场游戏既是为了提升我们自身的能力,也是为了在竞技场上取得胜利。因此,通常情况下,这个对话之所以有趣,是因为你经常在向前推进:好吧,我们该怎么做?我们要怎么应对这个?我们接下来要向哪里推进?有什么样的胜利是可以争取的?而且你必须在明知你所运行的系统充满了缺陷的情况下去做这些事。此外,归根结底,我的盘算是,我非常谨慎,甚至试图——有些人可能不相信——甚至试图对我能影响到的那一点点世界保持谦卑。而且我认为我已经让它变得更好了。我认为与我合作的机构随着时间的推移正在不断改善,而且我认为这个认识论问题和个人魅力问题,都是在短期到中期内能够且将会被解决的问题。
Original English
Chris Rufo: tangible political victories. We can't retreat just to abstract speculation and and who you know look we're playing the game and in my view the game is simultaneously to improve our own capacities but also to to win in the arena and so I I I oftentimes and and this this conversation is is interesting because you're often times you're moving forward all right what are we going to do how are we going to hit this where are we going to where are we going to push next what kind of what kind of victory is is is is available Um, and you have to do that knowing that the the the system you're operating in is is littered with imperfections. Um, and again, at the end of the day, what I my calculation is I I'm I'm very mindful and even try to be some people wouldn't believe this, try to even be humble as to the the little part of the world that I can influence. And I think I've changed it for the better. Um, I think institutions that I'm working with are are improving over time and I think this epistemological question and the individual charismatic question are questions that can be and will be resolved in the say short to medium term.
Interviewer: 我们就聊到这里吧。我非常感谢你能来参加这次对话。照例,这是我们最后一个问题:您有没有几本书想要推荐给我们的听众?
Original English
Interviewer: I'll leave it there. I really appreciate you doing this conversation. Always our final question. What are a few books you'd recommend to the audience?
书单推荐
Chris Rufo: 好的,那我们就从“Rufo 的个人保守主义经典书单”中挑选三本来推荐。我推荐的第一本书是我导师 John Marini(克莱蒙特研究所学者)写的一本书,叫《揭开行政国家的面具》(Unmasking the Administrative State)。我认为这本书比任何其他书都更能帮助我理解我们现代困境背后更深层次的哲学和政治基础。我认为所有保守派和所有自由派都应该读的第二本书,是 Stacy Schiff 写的一本传记,叫做《革命者》(The Revolutionary),这是美国国父 Samuel Adams 的传记。Adams 是最具政治色彩的国父。我认为他通过自己的榜样,澄清了我们一直在讨论的所有关于宣传、关于激情、关于制度、关于政治变革的问题。他是一位关键的、而且真正被遗忘的国父。几个世纪以来他一直被贬低,但我认为他实际上是最重要的国父。然后,第三,我想推荐几本由保守派记者、前纽约大学教授 James Burnham 写的书。他写了一本叫《管理革命》(Managerial Revolution),另一本叫《马基雅维利主义者》(The Machiavellians),还有一本叫《西方的自杀》(Suicide of the West)。对我来说,Burnham 的这种复杂的分析有助于阐明这些问题。他的著作非常出色,对于那些甚至不认同我的政治立场的人来说,可能也会觉得很有意思。
Original English
Chris Rufo: Okay, so we're going to do three books uh from the Rufo's personal conservative cannon. The first I would recommend is a book by my mentor John Marini, Claremont Institute uh scholar uh called unmasking the administrative state which I think has helped me more than anything understand the deeper philosophical and political underpinnings of our modern dilemma. Uh, the second book that I think all conservatives should read and all liberals should read is a biography by Stacy Schiff called The Revolutionary, which is a biography of the American founder Samuel Adams. And Adams is the most political founder. Uh, I think he uh kind of kind of clarifies through example all the questions that we've been talking about about propaganda, about passion, about institutions, about political change. He's the kind of key and and the forgotten founder really. He's been downgraded for for centuries now, but I think he's actually the most important uh founder. And then um you know, third, I would recommend a number of books by the the kind of conservative journalist, former NYU professor James Burnham. Wrote a book called Managerial Revolution, another called the Machavelians, another called Suicide of the West. And for me, Burnham is someone who has the kind of sophisticated analysis that helps illuminate these questions. His his work is quite good and might even be interesting for people who don't share, you know, my political.
Interviewer: 在他的书里,您建议从哪一本开始读起呢?
Original English
Interviewer: Which book of his would you start with?
Chris Rufo: 我建议从《管理革命》开始读起,再说一次,因为它描述了——它写于 20 世纪 40 年代。这简直令人难以置信。你现在读它,他所描述的正是我们生活的这个世界。但他又是从一种乐观主义——一种美国的乐观主义——的角度来描述它的,不过他那时就已经看到了正在开始浮现的一些问题。
Original English
Chris Rufo: I would start with managerial revolution um again because it it just it kind of describe it's in in the 1940s. It's unbelievable. You read it now and um he's describing the world we live in. uh um but he's describing it from from a point of of kind of optimism, American optimism, but he already saw some of the problems that were starting to emerge.
Interviewer: Chris Rufo,非常感谢您。
Original English
Interviewer: Chris Rufo, thank you very much.
Chris Rufo: 谢谢。
Original English
Chris Rufo: Thank you.