Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market futures. We are live folks. It is Sunday. We've got 14 minutes until once again the stock market opens up. Thank you everybody for being here. We got a lot to discuss. We got a lot to get into. Hope everyone had a good weekend. It's time to open up the markets.

Dude, it's been a long 48 hours. I have got the jitters. I am ready to get back into these markets. It was a long week last week in terms of all the emotionals up and down. little not only the the emotional up and downs, but the uh actual financial up and downs. But I'm excited. I'm excited to get back into it. This is going to be a fun week. Uh hopefully it's going to be well it'll be fun. I don't know if it'll be uh you know tears of joy or tears of happiness, but there's going to be some tears that eventually we'll we'll laugh about in some way.

Uh we've got Tesla and Netflix earnings. So, we'll talk about that. That's going to be big this week. It officially starts off big tech. last week had a great earnings for for uh well not for tech but for TSM which was one of the tech companies that reported ASML and uh all the banks and consumer discretionary companies pretty much good across the board except a couple of the regionals we'll talk more about that but the other regionals on Friday were pretty good

so we're going to continue tech earnings into this week with Tesla and Netflix we got CPI on Friday again the government is still shut down so I don't know what the CPI process is going to look like but we're not going to get any other macro data outside of CPI so that'll be important on Friday

uh and then Trump and Xi are going to be meeting towards the end of October, early November in South Korea. So, uh I think this week you're probably going to get a bit more of an update in terms of what those negotiations are going to look like. China over the weekend pretty friendly. I mean, they said some stuff that you wouldn't think would would uh entail, but they want to be super hostile and Trump kind of reciprocated with some of his comments that he made on Friday as well. So, I think we'll get more negotiations or more understanding of what the negotiations look like. we will get some of these earnings and uh we'll get some macro data with CPI and hopefully a little bit of negotiation for the shutdown. We'll see how that plays out, but hopefully it's not too bad.

Two announcements logistically and then we'll keep actually three and then uh then we'll get started with everything that we got going on.

number one, and they might not be in the chat right now, but they probably will be in the chat. Market open, market close. Uh, folks, we have officially extended the AK media team and brought someone on fulltime. Cactus Jack. Those of you who are in the chat every day probably recognize Cactus Jack. If you're listening every day, you you probably don't um know who he is because you don't keep up with chat. He is now full-time with AK Media. So, Cactus Jack is essentially our personal Bloomberg terminal. And when I say hour, I mean the entire chat because the level of speed that he has dedicated to getting us updates and news about what's going on in the stock market, every single market, open, market, close has been remarkable.

And uh you know, a week ago, I mean, I've seen him for like two years in the chat. A week ago, I'm just like, "Bro, like why are you doing this every day?" And he was just like, "Wow, I just love being here. I love the community you built." And I'm like, "Okay, well, I feel bad that you're doing this every single day for free. Uh, and I also think we might as well formalize this relationship if you're going to be here anyway." There he is. There's Mr. Cactus Jack. And, uh, he said, "Let's do it." So, Cactus is officially part of the team. If you ever see a post from Cactus, uh, it is most more likely than not accurate, whether it's earnings, Trump tweets, headlines, whatever it is.

So, if you see him in the chat, think of him as our our personal Bloomberg terminal. At this point, his full-time job now is to just research, get updates on the market. And it it really is going to help me do my job better, which is communicating all the information and finding all the updates in real time. And uh having a trusted source that I can rely on and make sure that we can convey everything that's happening in real time, which, you know, for a lot of people, you make decisions based on the headlines that come up when you're trading. That's really important. And so, Cactus uh will be full-time with us. So, very excited for him and uh excited to expand the team a bit further.

Second update. So, I told you guys post Miami that I really want to take the meetups more seriously in 2026 in terms of planning, logistics, infrastructure, security, all this stuff. Like basically, it was a fun idea in my head to do these meetups. The fun idea manifested into like a real community building event from 50 people in New York to 350 people in Miami. And it kind of dawned on me that if we're going to do this, we should do this.

I had a meeting yesterday with a PRmanagement agency and uh it was a very good meeting. Like it was a it was a one of those meetings where it's like it's clicking on all cylinders and I really like the people that I met yesterday. No confirmed official deal. They're going to be in Jersey in November and then I'm gonna meet them in person. I I make decisions a lot of times based on intuition. Cactus Jack was an intuitive decision and my intuition ended up being right because he immediately was like, "Yes, let's do it." And based on the meeting I had yesterday, uh very very excited for it.

And and the cool thing about the meeting I had yesterday is this is not some super super big like management talent agency yada yada. This is one person who spent 10 years working at that agency and now she's starting her own firm. And that's what really got me excited because I would not just be one client that's part of like the cog in the machine of all these other people that the agency manages. I would be like one of honestly I don't even know if she has any other clients. I mean, she literally quit five weeks ago. So, like I think I might be her first client, which means she would be very motivated to get the job done and really take this to the next level.

I think the first five meetups we've done Toronto, Boston, Miami, California and New York showed that there is demand for this but now we got to make it structured and so I am very very excited for that. Again, we don't have an official deal yet, but uh I think if we can get that deal done by the end of the year, then the planning of venues across the world is going to get a lot easier. And it'll be pretty cool to make this happen. So, should be fun. Should be very fun. The first location I can I think I've already said this before, but the first location, likely will be New York in January. Likely will be New York. So, um hopefully if all goes as planned, the New York happens in January. And if it does, then I'd be very excited to kick off New York again.

Oh yes, the third update. Dude, the substack. You guys have been absolutely like just it's it's been I think I'm falling in love with writing, dude. Like this thing is cool. I you know, usually I take Saturdays off to like just like not think about stocks and the market and stuff. I already started working on the next two deep dives. I have already started working on the next two deep dives.

I've never been a writer, but the the the process of really sitting down with your thoughts and not speaking them, but writing them out, it's annoying. It's hard. I like don't love it as much as I love talking. But it's a new challenge and and quite frankly, I I really am wanting to embrace this challenge. So, deeply deeply appreciate anyone who subscribed. If you didn't, I'll put the link in the chat. There was no payw wall. So for anyone who wants to read the deep dives, you can uh read it whenever you want and whatever future content comes out on the substack, feel free to read it.

I'm thinking of so many other ideas, too, like Palanteer's Q3 earnings. Like usually I make a video on that. I'll continue to make a video on that. But I also would want to write out my thoughts on Palunteers's earnings. Robin Hood has earnings up coming. I want to write out my thoughts on Robin Hood. like just the process of writing. Like literally this weekend, bro, on Saturday, I'm over here getting ready on the next two deep dives and I'm starting to research and type and I'm like, damn, bro. I didn't know I would like it this much, but there's something about it that I really do freaking enjoy.

All right, so we got two minutes and then we got a bunch of headlines. We'll get into those headlines. Futures are green for those that didn't see it. Uh very excited to see how this market opens.

All right, let's get into it. Overnight markets are open hoodie 132. There's a green candle. That's up 2%. Fell all the way down to 127. No, it fell to 122 Friday at 2 am. Palanteer right here at 178. That's green by about a third of a percent. Tesla, we got some updates on Tesla. We got to talk about that. 440.80. Uh, we do have earnings on Tesla, so that's going to matter as well. Nvidia, that's green, up about 08%. S&P, that's green. AMD, that's up a little bit.

SoFi, 2683. All right, we're up 1% of the day on SoFi. Grabby Grab 571, that's green. Google 253, that's green. Reddit, that's up. Amazon, that's up. Meta, that's flat. Salesforce is up. You pretty much got green across the board. PayPal's green. Apple's green. SMCI is green. BMR should be like 52, right? BMR 5204. 5204 for BMR. So, we are green on that as well.

Uh, I don't know if Amcore trades overnight. Oh, no. Well, it got to move 3230. It's probably very low volume but up from 31 to 3238. Jensen literally mentioned AMC in an interview that he did today. So we'll we'll play the interview and we'll talk about it. But uh I I I you know even at this price trading at 1.15 time sales I I think there is some upside there if they can keep executing.

All right cool. Let's get into some headlines. I think we'll start off with Jensen, dude. Jensen did an interview on Fox this morning. Great interview. Uh said a lot of stuff that I think is really important. The big headline for uh Nvidia is that on Friday, this was after the market closed. I think right when the market close ended, we shared the headline. Uh Nvidia and TSMC have officially developed the wafer for the Blackwell chip in America for the first time ever.

So this is what Jensen had to say about that and how he went further into the re-industrialization of America for semiconductors. >> So when President Trump first announced tariffs earlier this year, your company was hit pretty hard. On Friday, though, you announced that you're going to start making the wafers for AI chips in the United States. Can you tell us more about what your plan is? Yeah, this last week was a historic week. Uh we manufactured the most advanced AI chips in the world in the most advanced fab in the world here in America for the first time. Uh all of this started with President Trump wanting to reindustrialize the United States. His terrorist was a pressing uh agent in making this possible at this at the at the speed that we're doing.

Jensen just said his tariffs were a pressing agent in making this happen. So you got Jensen giving Trump a lot of credit right there saying the tariffs are the reason why we're able to do this. That's probably what Trump wants to hear. It's, you know, good for Nvidia shareholders for him kind of staying aligned that way. And obviously for the American re-industrialization project around semiconductors, Jensen is leading the way.

And now at uh uh just in shortly after less than a year, we're now manufacturing the most advanced chips for AI here in the United States. This is just the beginning of it. Uh with the partnership of the supply chain in Taiwan, TSMC is in incredible partner in a strategic partner for United States and in bringing manufacturing of the most in most critical sector of technology here to to United States. Uh this is just the starting point where after that with Foxcon, Amcor, Spill, uh Wistron, so many of our other partners, we're going to bring the entire

>> Amcore mention. We got the Amcore mention. One of the only companies that can do packaging in the United States, works very closely with TSM. Trades at 1.15 time sales. I don't know if it's going to work out, but Jensen's not mentioning that many seven billion dollar companies in these interviews.

>> We're actually at the beginning of this industrial revolution. The way to think about AI is that in order for AI to be produced, you need a factory. That factory takes energy. This is one of the most important things that President Trump did for the technology industry here in the United States is to recognize that energy is necessary for this industry to grow. President Trump's pro-energy initiatives has made it possible for us to sustain our growth. We're about hundred couple hundred billion dollars into this journey. We have trillions of dollars of AI infrastructure to build throughout the next decade. And so this is a just in the very very beginning part of that journey.

And so I mean look, you've got Jensen obviously very bullish on this AI revolution. You know what else is he going to say? He's he's also talking his book. But Nvidia is putting up the growth to be able to justify that which is, you know, why it is more believable than not. Now, one argument to support, not the bubble argument, but rather the argument that maybe Nvidia is not going to be able to put up that growth is the lack of selling in China.

Here's what Jensen said a couple days ago uh about China. Obviously, he's super bullish for America, and what he's saying about jobs, manufacturing, all of that is music to Trump's ears. But this was when he took a little bit of a different approach uh implicitly criticizing that Nvidia should be able to sell into China. >> We hope that we could create American technology that the world's built upon. Well, a lot of the AI researchers are in China. You know, China has about 50% of the world's AI researchers. I think it's a mistake to not have those researchers build AI on American technology on first principles. I think that's a mistake. And so the question is how how do you balance winning staying ahead on the other hand ensuring that the world builds on American tech stack that's the balance and in order to balance you have to have nuance. at the moment uh we are 100% out of China and so China is 0% of we went from 95% market share to 0%. and so I can't imagine any policy maker thinking that that's a good idea

Now Sham Sanker CTO of Palunteer he wrote an article uh on Friday and the title is why the China dubs are wrong. the original title why it was Jensen Huang is wrong about China. If you read the article? It's not really a critique of Jensen per se. Sham clarified his thoughts after he posted the article saying Nvidia is a great you know American company. It's rather the question of dude this is not a joke like we are in a moment with China that if we don't figure out how to resolve it aka create all of the stuff that we need to we need to create for ourselves to survive which is semiconductors first and foremost pharmaceuticals labor that can't be outsourced and ruin American jobs. All of that stuff is super super important.

Here was Trump this morning about China and what he's thinking going into this negotiation. >> I'm wondering what China is thinking right now. Did Xi Jinping congratulate you about the success of the peace deal? >> Well, I heard he did. There was a statement put out, but >> because in the middle of >> a meeting with him, >> he squeezed the US by tightening the export controls on rare earth minerals. >> He did. and I raised our tariffs to 100% uh on top of what they're already paying, which is far worse. Far worse. We'll see what happens with China. I've always had a great relationship with them, as you know, but uh they're always looking for an edge.

Okay, we got a lot of quotes. All right, here we go. You guys can see this. All right. Uh, Trump says US is considering buying beef from Argentina. Trump will announce Colombia tariff rate tomorrow. Trump speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One. Okay, that's what I thought on the plane. Trump says we can lower what China has to pay in tariffs, but China has to do things for us, too. Aka, we're willing to negotiate. That's bullish. Trump confident of reaching soybean deal with China.

Okay. The soybeans took away uh Wednesday's green close from us and they're giving us a Sunday overnight green overnight market open green as uh as Trump gets friendly on the soybeans. Look at that. S&P 66530. Nvidia's up, Tesla's up, pounders up, hoodie's up. Even Grab is moving 2% on this. Reddit's up. Amazon's up.

I think the the playbook for this week is I mean, let's do a poll right here in the chat. But, um, I think it's gonna be choppy, dude. Instead of October, I think we're having Choptober. I think we are having Choptober. And the reason for that is because a October tends to be volatile and we had two really good months, August, September. So we're kind of due for some choppiness. And then b it's like we need a lot more good news to start of culminating and intersecting with each other for the uh excitement I think that it would take for us to get to 7,000 on the S&P.

But I think the number one thing we're missing right now, we need earnings, bro. We need earnings. We need really good earnings. And until we get those earnings, I don't know if we're necessarily going to even have a chance to expand the multiple.

leveraged ETFs. We talked about this last week. Leverage ETFs continue to grow massively. Uh we are at an all-time high on the number of leveraged equity ETFs that are out there. So, US margin debt has hit 1.13 trillion, which is a new all-time high. In 2021, it was 900 billion. So, we are well above the 2021 highs of margin debt. Now, why does this matter? Well, if things start going down and people get margin called, they will have to sell equities to cover their margin and that creates an onslaught of more selling.

take a look at what Bank of America showed, investors had their largest inflow last week in technology stocks last week. Take a look at institutional fund manager cash levels. So this is not just retail that's buying the dip. It is not just retail that's plowing in money. It is at the lowest level in history. 3.8%. 22% of fund managers have yet to have only met their benchmark. Aka there's uh 78% of fund managers have not met their benchmark. So is that right? They're going to have to chase. They're going to probably have to chase, right?

So, we've got earnings coming up on Wednesday. Tesla's stock year to date was lagging heavily until the past month. It is now only up 15% year-to- date.

First of all, I finally updated to 13.2.9 on FSD, um, which is not 14, but I don't have 14 available yet. Hopefully, I get FSD 14 soon. I will say, uh, the nagging, which has been my biggest gripe with FSD for the past couple of weeks, really past couple months, quite frankly, is starting to get way better. I mean, and I don't know if it was just me, but on the previous version, you couldn't even glance at your phone. and now I actually pick up my phone, I can check a text message, I can change the song when I'm looking at music or I can look outside if there's some scenery and when I, you know, look back at the road, I don't have this massive warning telling me to pay attention. It's gotten a lot better.

Now does that actually affect the earnings? Probably not because you know FSD is not something that they're selling like hotcakes yet. Uh I think what's going to affect the earnings is the is the delivery. So they delivered basically 500,000 cars, 497,000 um and that was better than expected. The problem is I think everyone has already baked those into their estimates. So the street for this earnings is expecting negative growth year-over-year again.

I don't want to be super bearish Tesla. I just don't know if anything Elon can say will be enough to actually get this to move. The fact that the compensation package is going to be voted on and likely go in Elon's favor. The fact that he bought a billion dollars worth of stock. I mean, I think those two things and then the fact that they had 497,000 deliveries because of the EV credit going away and so they really took advantage of that. I think all three of those things are priced in

What can Tesla the company do on Wednesday that will actually get the stock to blast into the I don't know 470s 480s? Yes, optimist. And I've been I've been saying like this like a broken record over the past couple of at this point I would say five quarters that Elon needs to announce an LOI, a letter of an intent, a letter of intent with a Walmart that is ready to buy 100,000 Optimus. Just even the announcement of a Walmart or a Marta Libre or any of these major companies in their factories are ready to to to you know buy hundreds of thousands of optimism. I mean it doesn't even have to be revenue. could just be a little email that the CEO of Marta Libre sends Elon like, "Hey, if you if you get it ready for us, we're ready to buy it because they would be ready to buy it."

I don't think the stock has to tank because everything's baked in. So if they have negative earnings growth, it's like, okay, we already knew they were going to be negative. But does the stock have to explode? I don't know what would the company do that could possibly get it to explode outside of Elon making people feel happy while he's talking during the earnings call, which he does every time.

All right, cool. So the summary for the overnight markets are as follows. Trump signaling really good stuff with China in regards to not getting into a massive tariff war. That's bullish. The Nikkay likely up because the US is up based on these China comments. Jensen did a big interview uh first wafer for the blackwell chip was created in the United States over the weekend was the announcement. Markets really like that that is official and American manufacturing is coming back.

And then in terms of the macro stats, leverage is high, margin debt is high, cash allocation is low institutionally and option volumes continue to go higher. All of those things will either be bullish or bearish based on earnings. And this week we get Tesla and Netflix. We had a bunch of other companies, but Tesla and Netflix are the most important ones. And then the week after that is really when we have our Super Bowl. And if those companies can execute, then I think this multiple for the S&P can continue to sustain itself and expand towards the end of the year. If the earnings growth is really there, we just have to see if that growth can be there.

Summary is risk on. That is correct. I mean, we're cutting rates and earnings are good. We're cutting rates and earnings are good. Unless there's a massive structural change like in the credit markets, and you know, based on the research I've done on regionals, it doesn't seem like it's that big of a deal. We'll see how it plays out over the coming weeks, but rates are down, earnings are up. That should be the recipe to to get some momentum.

All right, thank you everybody for joining. I'll see you guys tomorrow on the market open. And once again, thank you all for the support on the Substack. Really means a lot. Thank you everybody. I'll see you guys on the market open. Bye-bye.